The Numbers Don’t Lie And They Can Be Sobering
The Review Journal reports from Nevada. “Home Builders Research reported that new home sales through May are down 43.8 percent in Las Vegas from a year ago and resales are off by 34.7 percent. Median new home prices have declined 4.4 percent to $308,874 and existing home prices slipped 3.8 percent to $278,000.”
“Meanwhile, the inventory of homes for sale on the MLS climbed to a record 23,642 in June, with about 40 percent of them sitting vacant.”
“‘I walked into the office of the title company I use yesterday and they were down to less than half their normal staff,’ Robin Camacho of Direct Access Lending said. ‘People are losing jobs in this market. We’ll see a lot of part-time Realtors and mortgage officers leave the business before the market turns around.’”
“Camacho said there’s not much good news in her local market research. ‘The number of foreclosures and short sales (homes sold for less than what’s owed) continues to rise,’ she said.”
“Las Vegas’ housing market is not yet near the bottom, despite claims from some real estate agents that the worst is behind us, Andrew Pugh of SellFastLV.com said.”
“‘It’s pretty bad out there. Unless you’re buying a low-end property, under $250,000, you’re better off renting. A $350,000 house in a good neighborhood can be rented for under $1,500 a month. Right now you can’t buy much house for $1,500 a month with a fixed-rate loan,’ Pugh said.”
“The growing percentage of houses selling for under $269,000 is an indicator that prices are dropping.”
From KVBC 3 in Nevada. “The numbers don’t lie and they can be sobering. Each month about 5,500 homes come on the market in Las Vegas and only 1,500 are sold.”
“Jim Snyder: What’s your plan? Do you want to buy a house? Vuk Dukic (home buyer): Most likely yes. I’m testing the market, I guess… see what’s available and see where the prices will go.”
“Vuk: Coming from San Francisco, it’s way, way cheaper than over there. I did notice the prices are coming down. I guess a lot of hesitancy in the market right now.”
“Lisa Eggleston is a long time Las Vegas resident and she’s buying up. She’s found great homes she wants to move into, but she’s in a catch-22. ‘I can’t upgrade to my new home until I get the equity out of my house that I’m in, but then I’m having a hard time selling the house that I’m in.’”
“She’s trying to get a seller to agree to a contingency: she’ll buy the home as soon as her own home is sold. ‘People are not accepting contingencies,’ Lisa says, ‘they’re accepting cash or offers that are now.’”
“She’s frustrated that deals keep falling through and it only reinforces that hesitancy buyers are feeling in the market.”
The Arizona Republic. “Deals that help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosures are on the rise in metro Phoenix. ‘Short sales’ are similar to regular home sales except a deal is worked out in which the lender accepts what the house is appraised for or what it will currently sell for instead of what is owed on it.”
“Travis Olsen, president of the National Short Sale Center, is tracking the market and said there are more than 700 short sales under way in the Phoenix area.”
“Real estate agents say that two years ago, there were almost no short-sale properties on the market or deals closing.”
The Rocky Mountain News from Colorado. “Royce Morales bought a foreclosed home for $86,000 last month, about half of its previous sales price.”
“The Center Avenue home in southwest Denver sits smack in the middle of an area hardest hit by foreclosures. The latest tally for the 80219 ZIP code: 758 foreclosures in the past 18 months.”
“One home in Denver, which had a $149,000 loan, is now being sold by the lender for $52,000.”
“Of the 4,000 foreclosed homes actively being processed in Denver, a Rocky Mountain News analysis of the data shows: 890 of them are in the hands of whoever bought them at a public trustee auction, typically the lender.”
“1,507 have gone through the foreclosure sale, but could still be redeemed by the borrower. 1,557 of them are being sold by the public trustee. The status of the remaining 46 is unknown, according to city records.”
“April Crumley, president of the Concerned Citizens for Barnum, said Hispanics are especially vulnerable to losing their homes. They are talked into getting loans that they don’t understand. ‘I’m talking Hispanic lenders to Hispanic customers,’ she said.”
“Much of Barnum and Athmar Park neighborhoods are in that ZIP code. The neighborhoods are filled with empty homes with broken windows and yards covered with weeds, sometimes topping seven feet.”
“It’s not just lenders, but buyers who are increasingly contributing to the foreclosure crisis, said Karen Cuthbertson, president of the Athmar Park Neighborhood Association.”
“‘There are people like the gentleman across the street who bragged how this was the third home he bought using false documentation,’ Cuthbertson said. ‘He took a sledgehammer and ripped out all of the copper pipes and then left. They’re predatory borrowers.’”
“She said much of the focus by legislators and politicians has been on the ‘poor distraught home buyer, and clearly that is a valid market.’ But she said the reality is that there are an increasing number of buyers who are just as culpable as any predatory lender.”
“And as in Barnum, Athmar Park is suffering more now from foreclosed homes than it did in the 1980s, (she) said. ‘A couple blocks away from me, probably seven of the 10 houses on the street are empty,’ she said.”
When prices doubled, Realtors universally claimed it was due to an increase in demand.
Now we see that demand is off by 48%.
So…what’s going to happen to prices now Mr. Realtor?
“Travis Olsen, president of the National Short Sale Center, is tracking the market and said there are more than 700 short sales under way in the Phoenix area.”
Banks are going to take it in arrears on these short sales. Some heads are going to roll at coutrywide. Is there a bounty on Mozillo yet?
“‘It’s pretty bad out there. Unless you’re buying a low-end property, under $250,000, you’re better off renting.
Something is way out of whack when $250,000.00 is “low end” I really don’t care where it is. This national bubble has a looong way to go, no doubt.
No kidding. You can get a pretty nice place out here for 250K.
I can testify to that… That’s what we paid for our beautiful ‘87 home on a big wooded lot, nice view, etc., here in Loveland. That was about a third of what we would have needed for an equivalent place in NoVA back when we lived there.
What part of town is it?
NW of 287 and 37th… Interestingly, many of the folks who bought in ‘86-87 still live in the neighborhood.
Not surprising, I think that few people in Loveland know house flipping is.
Agreed, when low end is $250,000, that tells us all we need to know about the housing bubble.
$750k is the low end in Santa Barbara.
Crazy! $750k? All those people really need to rent or relocate!
Reading the comments is the only way I can feel what is happening around the country. Cupertino like Santa Barbara is now in a different world? I guess that the first regions to fall must be where contractors overbuilt. These contractors cannot stop building because they are sitting on expensive empty lots that they can’t sell without putting a house on the lot. The bottom will not occur until the developers can unload the expensive land they purchased in 2005. (2009?)
100% of the Cupertino buyers are either Korean, Indian, Chinese and these guys buy the house because they want their kids to go to a Cupertino school. We know nothing of a housing crash here, only faint rumors from the East.
Thanks for pointing that out, wmbz. These sh*theads don’t seem to be aware that median family income in this country is 50K per year. So five times the typical family’s income only buys a “low end” house. Jesus H - give me a break.
Here in San Diego, you cannot get Jack for $250K. Oddly enough that is about the top end of our purchasing range. This effectively eliminates me from the San Diego market.
My friend makes $70k a year and he cant afford squat. I told him NOT to buy till prices drop. I showed him $300k houses and he said no way im living in that shack!
Even a half mil doesn’t get you much in Sandy Eggo.
I know, really. Low end, sh!t, low end 10 years ago was a $70k rancher. And considering wages really haven’t gone up, that’s should still be low end.
The feeling is mutual. $250k got you a low end house in a questionable neighboor in my neck of the woods back in 2005. $200k would get you a 2/1 shack in the ghetto. Now I am starting to see decent 3/2 ~1500 square feet houses for $250k which is still waaaaaaaaaay too much. I got my eye on NW Pennsylvania where I can get a house of that caliber with acre plus of land for under $50k LOL! If prices drop enough, I would love to live in the Sierria mountains of California. Wonderful view!
$250K is a “low-end” house price my BUTT. I bought a brand new home by KB in 1999’s for a $160K in Sugar Land, TX with a $65K downpayment and the rest $95K loan with a 15-yrs fixed at 7.65% intr. rate and I can not think of a happier day comes this December of 2007’s when I am done paying for this house in 8 yrs 5 months of working like a donkey. $250K is a low-end house ! Yeah, right…
A record day today. Not a single analyst, CEO or pundit said “subprime is contained” that I’ve heard.
A record day today. Not a single analyst, CEO or pundit said “subprime is contained” that I’ve heard.
The Bear Sterns debacle has shocked the crap outta everybody.
off 1% - if that’s it I might as well start buying stocks
That’s what I was thinking. Why do I feel that the market will shrug this off and close at a record high on Friday?
Because it will…. It’s all good, these little speed bumps get in the way sometimes, no worries.
Well, so far I haven’t met any shoeshine boys who are stock market experts. When they start appearing, I’m bailing out!
Why don’t they construct a meaningful index, like say, all volume times all prices per stock per volume.
Buying stocks is one thing. Trading them is another. Given the BS news yesterday along with the lack of market reaction today, I’ve gotta say nothing on the immediate horizon is gonna upset the bull run. Essentially we have this crap paper at mark to market being validated as worthless and the market collectively yawns. Equities are the next (last?) bubble.
“The Bear Sterns debacle has shocked the crap outta everybody. ”
Almost.
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=911
Pick the comments you like the best.
This one’s loaded.
“The Bear Sterns debacle has shocked the crap outta everybody. ”
Yea… almost. Shocked is Dow Jones “circuit breakers.”
We have a long way to go until people realize liquidity is drying up. The rain has stopped, but many areas are still wet. Its only when they try to take a dip and cannot even get their toes wet that people notice the drought.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Dow down only 63.5 points. Subprime is Re-Contained.
Dammit, now down only 53, WTF??????
Looks like IBM beat estimates. Expect a rally tomorrow.
E-Bay up, WaMu up, gonna blow right past 14,000 everything else that should be a problem is contained! See how easy it is.
For some reason WaMu took a big jump in after hours. Their exposure to subprime is big. Whats going on ? The guy behind the curtain must be pushing some levers. Does anyone know ???
Subprime re-containment has been achieved, according to the DOW. The prime directive of the plunge protection team is to maintain investor confidence. Beam me up Scotty. There’s no intelligent life down here.
Sad little Denver. There were even people on here that said Denver would not get as bad as it did in the 80’s. Sucks to be wrong.
Prices are still higher than in 2000, so there is still a way to go for prices to get as low as in the 80’s. As a point of reference my in laws had a house in Littleton. I remember well that there were more than a few empty houses in that neighborhood in the mid 80’s. There was a shopping center nerby, and the only stores open were the super market and a Hallmark store (everything else was boarded up).
Fast forward to today: There are no vacant houses in that neighborhood now, and prices are twice what my in-laws sold for 15 years ago. And the local strip mall has no vacancies.
I’m not saying things are great in Denver, just not as bad as in 1980’s.
And during the 80’s bust my in-laws could not sell their house, even thought they were not heloc’d, and they put good money down.
I had a job offer in the late 80’s and considered moving to Denver at the time (until I saw how pitiful the offer was). We looked at some houses and back then you got way more for the money than in San Diego. Asking prices back then for a 3000 sq ft house were about 140K (which bought you a 1400 sq foot house in Escondido at the time).
You make good points, but I look at it from a bit different perspective. Was the neighborhood your in laws were in new back then? The new neighborhoods now are the ones almost vacant. And, though there are still plenty of retail stores open, we all know sales are down almost everywhere, so it won’t last. But, if a place is being unloaded by the bank for 65% off, and you take $52K into inflation adjusted terms, and the opinion of someone in the market saying it is getting worse than the 80’s, then yes, I’d still say it’s going to get worse than the 80’s. Friendly banter.
Oh, BTW, how many strip malls are filled with paycheck advance, cell phone, coffee shops, and hair salons? Yep, that’ll help the economy. I DO agree that we have a long way to go, too.
Nevermind, i gave that April gal too much credit!
They bought new in the late 70’s. The neighborhood was a bit above median (for its time), so few of the neighbors were J6P’s (my fil was a VP at a mining firm). Yet they had quite a few foreclosures by the mid 80’s. Being stuck at the time in expensive San Diego I could only slobber at the sight of those huge, beautiful and very inexpensive houses. Alas, that was not a great time to get a job in Denver (has it ever been?).
I think that those paycheck advance places are a leading indicator of what is to come. And they are as common as Starbucks!
In the 1980’s the slump in Denver began in the spring of 1982 with the end of the oil boom. By the 1987 or 1988 it had bottomed out. This slump is just begining.
“Alas, that was not a great time to get a job in Denver (has it ever been?).”
Maybe 1999? Not sure, wasn’t there then, just heard about the Level 3 and whomever else tech. But DEFINITELY NOT in 2003 when I was there. Quickly got back out. Maybe I’ll pick up a forclosure in Evergreen or Idaho Springs if they ever get below $50K.
From what one of my relatives told me once, you could of gotten a condo for $10,000 in Denver at the low of the bust.
Okay then, maybe I’ll wait for $20K now.
The Rocky Mountain News from Colorado. “Royce Morales bought a foreclosed home for $86,000 last month, about half of its previous sales price.”
Now we’re talking numbers reconcilable with incomes.
The horror, the horror…exterminate the brutes!
Depending on the neighborhood that still may be overpriced with respect to incomes. The bubble in Denver started in 94, incomes aren’t up all that much if at all. Most houses in the older neighborhoods were under $100k before the big 90’s boom.
Good point. You could get a 3000 sq ft house in the low 100’s before the 90’s boom.
3000 feet for $120k? That sounds like my kind of house! Would I then be able to get like 2000 feet for near $100k? I really hope so because this will give me alot more choices of locations besides the “rust belt” which is all I can afford at bubble prices
From the story the house sounds very small (800 sq ft) and very old (a handyman’s delight in RealtorSpeak). Still, a move in the right direction.
“April Crumley, president of the Concerned Citizens for Barnum, said Hispanics are especially vulnerable to losing their homes. They are talked into getting loans that they don’t understand. ‘I’m talking Hispanic lenders to Hispanic customers,’ she said.”
Welcome to the American Nightmare!
They were duped by white collar criminals. The crooked lenders should be sentenced to hard labor in the hellish heat of the central valley.They might remeber the next time when they screw over hard working people.
Yet, had they declined them they would have been branded racist.
Can’t win for losing.
But if the lenders (and probably realtors as well) were all hispanic, how could they be branded “racist”?
Heard of reverse racism? Talk to your local Philippino.
there’s no need to dupe anyone when the borrowed money is virtually free and home’s value is certain to only go higher. Both sides are licking their chops.
greed.. ignorance.. stupidity perhaps, but not necessarily a scam.
The crooked lenders should be sentenced to hard labor in the hellish heat of the central valley.
Man, a chain gang of Ameriquest mortgage brokers all shackled together picking up road kill and soiled diaper litter along US 10 in Death Valley.
I can picture it perfectly.
Put the CEOs of Ameriquest and some of these subprime lenders on a rock breaking crew.
Led by the Gov of MA, he’s an ex Ameriquest Bd member. That’s right, the people of MA elected a predatory lender their governor
That’s right, the people of MA elected a predatory lender their governor
Yes…that is correct.
And the legislature is doin’ their damnedest to get FNMA to refinance a package of deadbeat subprime’s and pay for Associates Degrees for anyone who wants one.
All fine here in Mazzholeland.
Our new Guvna was on the board of Ameriquest before he became governer of Massachusetts this year. Can we include him on the crew?
Can we include him on the crew?
Damn right!
Put him at the front!
Lead Ameriquest yocal.
However, with him on the Death Valley Ameriquest chain gang I’m not sure thow the work gonna get done around his new 10,000SF summer place in the Berkshires.
Maybe Ted Kennedy will show up to mow the lawn.
And the founder of Ameriquest is our your ambassador in my country, the Netherlands. * sigh *
That’s nothing. Reagan sent a southern California car dealer to Australia as ambassador in the 80s.
Such B.S. If they wanted to know the loan terms, they would have demanded they be in Spanish, just like they demand for every other thning (driver’s license test, IRS forms, etc.). They are no more preyed upon than any other lower socioeconomic group (be it white trash or ghetto blacks and Latinos). They were sold the loans by other Hispanics who spoke Spanish, these borrowers didn’t do their homework just like millions of others did not as well.
If you chose to move to a country where you don’t speak the native language, you don’t get to use the “no entiendo” card at your convenience whenever it suits you.
Let them go down with everyone else. Being an FB is equal opportunity at its finest.
While I’m not fond of illegal immigrants, and think legal immigration should be severely restricted, I think there’s a special place in hell for all the people, Anglo or Hispanic, that have screwed these poor souls over. I’ve love to force a bunch of realtors and mortgage brokers to pick lettuce all day in the hot sun for crap wages, just to educate them on what a hard damn day’s work is, and how despicable it is to unscrupulously separate simple laborers from their hard-earned wages.
10,000 vacant homes in Vegas.. woohoo baby..
there’s gotta be a really nice short term niche-business opportunity in here someplace..
How about installing alarms so thieves don’t strip the houses clean?
i’d want something that didn’t require a lot work or inventory, or a lot of money from the “owner” since so many are likely stretched or broke or uninterested..
somethin fast and easy and cheap.. do 20 homes a day for one year at $100 a pop.. three quarters of a million gross.
do 20 homes a day for one year at $100 a pop.. three quarters of a million gross.
Weed killer?
This would be installing alarms for the bank when take the house back as a REO.
“Lisa Eggleston is a long time Las Vegas resident and she’s buying up. … ‘I can’t upgrade to my new home until I get the equity out of my house that I’m in, but then I’m having a hard time selling the house that I’m in.’”
What equity Lisa? Maybe you should consider a short sale.
What she doesn’t doesn’t realize is that she actually bought down, into FB hell.
Jeez, I’m double-negativing like a subprimer now… Been reading HBB far too long, I guess.
Test
Galveston condos, anyone?
Man contracts flesh-eating bacteria at Texas beach
03:04 PM CDT on Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Associated Press
HOUSTON - A Nacogdoches man was in critical but stable condition after three surgeries aimed at saving him from a flesh-eating bacteria that infected him during a swim off the coast of Galveston County.
Steve Gilpatrick, 58, was diagnosed with necrotizing fasciitis, a tissue-destroying disease caused by a bacterium called Vibrio vulnificus, when he took ill three days after swimming during a July 8 fishing trip at Crystal Beach.
I wonder which hospital dumped its medical waste the day before?
Hmmm, Pismo Beach has been getting a series of high bacteria warnings over the summer:
“Wed, Jul. 18, 2007 - All three testing locations in Pismo Beach — one north of the pier and two south— exceeded safe bacteria levels, as did Hazard Canyon in Montaña de Oro State Park.
Signs advising beach-goers to stay out of the water were posted.”
Hmmm, Pismo Beach has been getting a series of high bacteria warnings over the summer:
Happens all the time here in Mazzholeland.
With all those antiquated sewer pipes and septic systems failing, Mafia dumped medical waste, pounds of dog crap washing into the storm drains, legions of babies at the beach doin’ their thing in leaky diapers, it’s no wonder.
Some beaches are now getting hit with algae blooms that stink like a million fart clams.
Ugh…let’s have some more immigrants.
The coming great paradox for shorefront owner’s.
How do you like your view of a dead ocean?
And in Sarasota, red tide is now present just off shore more days than not. Siesta Beach used to be ranked among the Top 10 in the U.S.
Bring back Jaws. It’s more exciting looking for him off the pier. The chance of seeing him goes up geometrically with the number of beers you’d had at Harry’s. It’s now against the rules in Pismo to feed the Pigeons because of alleged pollution of the ocean near the pier. I thinks it’s because of the surfers peeing and pooping in the water.What does thathave to do with the housing bubble. Waiting for prices to go down 34.9% in Pismo Beach like in the middle 90’s. Hang on, more than 14 mo of inventory. I’ll keep you informed.
“April Crumley, president of the Concerned Citizens for Barnum, said Hispanics are especially vulnerable to losing their homes. They are talked into getting loans that they don’t understand. ‘I’m talking Hispanic lenders to Hispanic customers,’ she said.”
And in Prince George’s County MD, its Black lenders ripping off Black homeowners, but heh, heh watch out for Whitey, he’s a racist. They get so worried about “the white man” the forget to look out for their own crooks. Remember, crooks come in all shapes, sizes and colors.
Dag, I had a nice embedded image of a preying mantis eating another mantis.
http://kaweahoaks.com/html/mantis_cannibal03.jpg
“…bragged how this was the third home he bought using false documentation…He took a sledgehammer and ripped out all of the copper pipes and then left. They’re predatory borrowers”
No, that’s what they call “equity extraction”, or “having your house work for you”.
predatory borrowers.. that’s funny.
What else should you do when the copper pipes are worth more than the whole house? Car chop shop only a house instead of a car.
It’s called crime.
the house will no wbe “auctioned” in one of those staged minimum bid not allowed to look at the houses beforehand “events”
“Real estate agents say that two years ago, there were almost no short-sale properties on the market or deals closing.”
We needed the agents to tell us that? Give me a break. Two or three years ago those very same agents were telling everyone they could refi out of the increasing payments they would be experiencing now with their suicide financing. It looks like they’re better at reflecting on the past than predicting the future.
The Vegas market is grim. I’ve got my place up, as I’ve mentioned here before. Every day I get a call from an agent wanting the listing. Every day, their spiel seems to get slimier. The latest was I wasn’t going to sell without an agent unless I took an agent and agreed to a total of 13% in costs and commissions.
I’m doing OK without them, though. Four showings in 6 days, two promising. As was mentioned in the article, no contingencies for people needing to sell their house first or obtain financing. One looker insisted I was going to cut my price $20K and then said she needed to sell her house first. I told her if she intended to try and bargain, she better have something to bargain with.
Pulte homes was mentioned in an article below. Here in Vegas from Friday through Monday all Pulte home developments are 15% off. I’ve been looking at one of them and decided not to commit as I expected something like that, and didn’t want to go with their 10% non-refundable earnest deposit to a company having some serious financial problems. I friend had told me yesterday someone he knew was closing next week at one of the Pulte developments. Friend told him of the discount sale, over $46,000 less than the guy is closing on. There are going to be some very unhappy people out there seeing that kind of money lost before they’ve even moved in.
Lower your price, get the house sold and rent or relocate. You can still keep some of the funny money before it vanishes by 2010.
The Las Vegas neighborhood I’m renting in right now has visible forclosures/REO properties in it.
Across the street from me the builder is closing out this development, and the three model homes are up for sale. The model homes are between two foreclosures (with the requisite bank notice of foreclosure stuck to the front doors, windows, and garage door). Across the street are three more houses for sale, and the only homes on my side of the street that don’t have For Sale signs out in the front are my house and my neighbor’s; we are the evil renters in the development. Good luck trying to sell those models off.
The owner of my house quite clearly stated it was him and his wife’s “investment home” that they have been trying to sell…in the meantime, they’re renting it out to me and my husband for a loss. Some investment property. So far no buyers have even expressed any interest at looking at the property. I’m quite happy to enjoy the cheap, lesser than apartment complex rent in all these “investment homes” that are going unsold.