Forecast For California Buyers: Sunny Skies Ahead
The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “Bay Area home sales eroded further in June, with properties in less-expensive areas leading the way. Across the nine-county region, sales of houses and condos tumbled 26.5 percent from 10,830 in June 2006 to 7,964 last month, according to real estate information firm DataQuick.”
“Solano County…boasts the lowest median price in the Bay Area, at $475,000, down 11.7 percent from the same month last year. Sales also fell by the largest margin last month. A total of 453 properties changed hands, 41.4 percent fewer than the 773 in June 2006. ‘With rising inventory and more foreclosures, buyers see this and feel it pays to wait,’ DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said. ‘A lot are stepping to the sidelines to watch it play out.”
“While homes are selling for multiple millions on Russian Hill or in Pacific Heights, the new inventory in the South of Market area could have a dampening effect.”
“‘South of Market, which was a sure bet for growth in the mid 1990s with Multimedia Gulch and all of the Internet companies and the new lofts being built there…that’s pretty much come to a standstill,’ said agent Gregg Lynn. ‘I have sellers there with unreasonable expectations, they’re living in two years ago.’”
The Mercury News. “While the Bay Area’s June home sales fell to their lowest level in 12 years, median prices continued to rise in the region’s costliest counties, masking problems, and falling home values, in the lower end of the market.”
“‘Right now we have a skew,’ said real estate broker Richard Calhoun of San Jose. Parts of the market’s high end are selling quickly and appreciating, while the lower end is generally experiencing slow sales and falling prices.”
“A three-bedroom house now for sale on Lean Avenue near Calero Park in Blossom Valley…is listed for $580,000. That’s about 7 percent less than the $625,000 price the owner paid for it in September 2005. The owner used a combination of a first and second mortgage to come up with the purchase price, according to public records. The home has been for sale since March.”
The Contra Costa Times. “‘With Solano County, the slowdown is a combination of heavy starter homes, at least for the Bay Area, and lender tightening criteria,’ LePage said. ‘Not that we think it’s a huge issue, but it doesn’t help.’”
“That sentiment was echoed by Larry Klapow, president of Coldwell Banker San Francisco Bay. ‘The pattern’s continuing,’ he said. ‘We’re selling lots of high-end homes, and sales aren’t doing too well on the lower end.’”
“Despite DataQuick’s findings, Brian Sharp, broker in Brentwood, said he’s seeing the opposite. ‘We’re hurting in the upper end,’ he said. ‘Our $800,000-and-up market is pretty soft, but our $300,000 to $500,000 (market) is better.’”
“Sharp said that last year his average sale was $738,000. Now it’s closer to $500,000. ‘The higher-end people are nervous about the market,’ he said. ‘The $300,000 to $500,000 crowd, they don’t read the Wall Street Journal.’”
“Most East Bay resale homes and resale condos reflected the drop in sales, whereas more new homes sold, most likely because of slashed prices. ‘Builders will do whatever they have to do to sell they house. They don’t hold onto it,’ LePage said.”
The Press Democrat. “Prices in the three least expensive counties, Sonoma, Solano and Napa, are showing signs of bending under the price pressure.”
“Sonoma County’s June median home price, which includes sales of new homes, resale homes and condominiums, fell 8.2 percent versus last year, dropping to $532,500, according to the report.”
“The median price for new homes dropped dramatically, down 43 percent, from $750,000 last June to $429,000 last month. Condominiums dropped as well, falling from $390,000 to $375,000 last month, a 4 percent dip.”
“The median price for new homes dropped dramatically, down 43 percent, from $750,000 last June to $429,000 last month. Condominiums dropped as well, falling from $390,000 to $375,000 last month, a 4 percent dip.”
“The median price of new homes in Sonoma County has come down because as the market softens, fewer people are able to sell their existing home and trade up to larger ones, said Steven Heath, an agent for Santa Rosa builder Carco Homes.”
“‘What that says to me is that someone who wants to sell his house and move up is not able to do it anymore, or do it comfortably,’ Heath said.”
“At the least expensive end of the spectrum, condominiums appear to be dropping to the point where more first-time home buyers can make the leap from renting to owning, said Joe Henderson, of Keller Williams in Winsdor. ‘I think prices are getting down to the point where buyers are able to snap ‘em up,’ Henderson said.”
The Sacramento Bee. “Two years into Sacramento’s real estate slowdown, the gulf between what sellers want for their homes and the price buyers are willing to pay continues to widen across much of the eight-county region.”
“In Sacramento, one of California’s major inland growth regions, escrow closings for all homes were the lowest for any June in a decade, according to DataQuick.”
“The number of for-sale signs at existing homes reached a record 15,566 in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to Sacramento-based TrendGraphix. Factor in 4,899 new and yet-to-be-sold homes reported by area builders in June and it pushes the total number of area houses for sale past 20,000.”
“‘We’re not prognosticators,’ said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage, ‘but my forecast for buyers would be sunny skies ahead.’” “The median sales price of all homes in Placer County was $428,500 in June, 18.5 percent below its December 2005 peak of $525,500.”
“Although more than 3,000 houses changed hands in June, it was hardly the surge normally associated with the month and its big-selling colleague, August.”
“‘Sacramento is sort of out there drifting all alone again without much influence from the outside, namely the speculators or investors from other parts of the state,’ said LePage. ‘We know that’s what helped fuel the frenzy that brought us to a peak in both sales and prices.’”
“Elk Grove real estate agent and broker associate Jon Nastro said he turns down listings of sellers who still want 2005 prices. The region’s record inventory, he said, stems from ‘too many unrealistic sellers.’”
“Bob Bronswick, president of the Sacramento/Tahoe region of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, said rising inventory is also driven by people facing financial trouble.”
“‘People bought in 2004 with those adjustables,’ he said. ‘Their rates are starting to change now. My gut feeling is we’re seeing more people that understand the situation they’re getting into and putting the house on the market to avoid it.’”
The Merced Sun Star. “So much for summer being the hot selling season. June home sales were dismal throughout the northern San Joaquin Valley, and sales prices plummeted. Merced County home prices plunged more than 23 percent in June compared to a year ago, dropping to a median $290,000 selling price.”
“Stanislaus County homes sold for a median $343,250 in June, which was about 9 percent below last year. San Joaquin County homes sold for $396,000, which was a nearly 12 percent drop.”
“As low as those prices were, homeowners who sold property in June should consider themselves lucky because most who tried failed. Home sales nose-dived throughout the region by more than 43 percent, compared to last year.”
“Northeast Modesto, including the new home developments of Village I, had sales volume drop 31 percent and prices tumble 23 percent to a median $336,000. Ripon sales dropped 60 percent and prices fell 27 percent to $455,000.”
“Patterson sales dropped 54 percent and prices fell 23 percent to $407,000. Waterford sales dropped 46 percent and prices fell 28 percent to $285,500.”
“Atwater sales dropped 42 percent and prices fell 25 percent to $275,000. Livingston sales dropped 70 percent and prices fell 25 percent to $310,000.”
“The continued price plunge means Merced is settling into a ‘normal market’ after a period of hyperinflated activity, said Scott Oliver, president of the Merced County Association of Realtors.”
“‘Home prices now are back to about what they were in 2003,’ said Ernie Ochoa, who manages the Century 21 M&M and Associates office in Merced.”
“Even those rolled-back prices are too high for most families. ‘The median-income family earns about $47,000 a year in Merced County,’ Ochoa said. ‘So it only can afford to buy a home priced about $175,000.’”
“Ochoa said Realtors listed 1,437 used homes for sale last month in Merced County, but they sold only 53 of them. ‘We’re got a huge supply of homes for sale,’ Ochoa said.”
“Buyers have lots to look at. They can pick between foreclosed properties repossessed by banks, new houses just finished by builders, and older homes offered by anxious owners.”
“The relentless downturn in the housing market means Washington Mutual Inc. plans to jettison more than 100 jobs in the East Bay.”
“Washington Mutual has decided to shut a Dublin office that handles subprime residential mortgages, said Olivia Riley, a bank spokeswoman.”
“‘These actions are a result of the changing subprime market,’ Riley said. “The bank also will tighten its standards to qualify potential borrowers, a move that could banish a larger number of consumers from the home financing market. ‘We are not getting enough volume for these mortgages,’ Riley said.”
“The job losses, bankruptcies and company shutdowns that plague the industry are the natural result of a market that became overheated, said Doug Nesbit, sales and marketing director with San Ramon-based CMG Financial Services, which provides home loans and other financial products.”
“‘The pendulum probably swung too far, and now it is swinging back towards more traditional lending guidelines,’ Nesbit said.”
The Dataquick report.
‘Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages has declined significantly. Foreclosure activity is rising, although foreclosure properties are not yet a drag home on home values in most markets. Down payment sizes are stable, flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is down,’
How many months has Data Quick been saying this same thing in slightly different ways…since what Feb or March?
At least twice
From calculated risk:
“Mr. Bernanke went on to reiterate it’s the price of homes, not MEW or financial contagion that represents the biggest risk of spillover from the housing slump. “House prices, nationally speaking, have not declined,” he said. “They’ve only risen more slowly, and so we have not yet seen anything except in a few local areas akin to a decline in house prices.” If they do decline, he said a hit to consumer spending could be expected on the order of “4 cents and 9 cents on the dollar” of lost home wealth”.
How clueless are these folks running our government?
How many months has Data Quick been saying this same thing in slightly different ways…since what Feb or March?
At least twice!
LOL.
Do Suzy and Suzanne both say everything at least twice?
Not just Suzy and Suzanne. Data Quick does too.
Guess so. LOL
Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages has declined significantly
Looks like it’s about to decline a lot more significantly!
How much you want to bet other lenders follow along quickly?
WaMu:
—————————
Subprime Policy Changes Effective on new submissions beginning July 20, 2007:
Elimination of all Stated Income (including Stated Wage Earner) and Limited Doc transactions. WaMu Sub prime Wholesale will only offer Full Documentation transactions.
Elimination of sub prime Hybrid Adjustable Rate Mortgage loans with initial fixed-rate terms of less than five years; we are eliminating our 2/28 and 3/27 products.
o 30 Year 5/25, 40 Year 5/35, 50 Year 5/45 and Interest Only 5/25 remain available.
o Interest Only Arm products will be underwritten at the Fully Indexed, full amortizing (FIFA) rate.
Minimum FICO for All transactions is increased to 540, unless a higher score is identified by policy.
Maximum Cash out is $100,000 for all transactions.
There will be no change in the sub prime definition of cash out; debt consolation will still be permitted.
Elimination of all second lien loan products.
Third party second mortgages are permitted; maximum CLTV is restricted to 90%.
Maximum CLTV for all Non-Owner Occupied Transactions is 80%.
Maximum LTV/CLTV for all Owner Occupied and 2nd homes transactions is 90%.
Maximum Loan Amount of $1,000,000.
Taxes and Insurance impounds are required for all transactions.
In addition, Pre Closing calls to borrowers will be made by our Operations and Sales staff and loans will not be closed without this contact.
This one’s a biggie too:
“Maximum LTV/CLTV for all Owner Occupied and 2nd homes transactions is 90%.”
No more 100% financing.
” Minimum FICO for All transactions is increased to 540, unless a higher score is identified by policy.”
Minimum FICO was increased to 540. Increased? You got to be frickin’ kiddin’, tell me this was a typo. What was the minimum before? Did they actually have a minimum before? I couldn’t have rented the house I’m living in with a score like that.
But you could probably buy a car and live in it.
yeah I saw that and almost choked … someone better have a damn good reason for approving a loan to anyone with a 540 credit score. I guess a recent medical crisis or divorce could really screw up your credit, even for credit worthy people, but to drop it to 540 something really serious must be going on.
Someone with a 540 score does not deserve to get even a credit card with a $500 limit. If they did have a medical problem, then they need to wait and build up reserves and not overextend themselves with a mortgage. Over time, scores improve, given good payments.
” The big worry now is lenders will shut more doors on consumers who seek their first openings into the Bay Area residential arena, Perkins said. The Fed’s interest rate posture has worsened this dilemma.
“This has squeezed out first-time home buyers, especially in a high-priced market such as the East Bay, the broader Bay Area and the state,” Perkins said. “Is an interest rate cut from the Fed called for? Unequivocally, yes.” ”
You know your a Realtor when the only words out of your mouth are ‘cut the interest rate’.
Having doors closed on your face is not so bad (as long as you wear a catcher’s mask). The people who are told they are not qualified for a loan can rent instead. With leftover money they can buy up savings bonds and pay off credit cards. They can take the time to hone their skills at personal finance and develop the special skill that seems remarkably lacking these days in the United States: personal responsibility.
Amen, brothah! Preach it, Bill. Personal responsibility is a rare commodity these days.
Thank you, Bill!
Oh won’t you marry me Biiiii-illl (gayness off)
i guess it does take a “village”…. of Village People
mail audit for my domestic partners child on my 1040
must be tough out there?
What’s worse, the Fed and other quasi-governmental enterprises (e.g., Fannie Mae) are actively engaged in debauching whatever shards of personal responsibility are left in the American culture. I believe do this in part to maintain a high, debt-fueled velocity of money relative to the underlying wealth base, which helps to keep bubbles aloft.
I believe [they?] do this in part to maintain a high, debt-fueled velocity of money…
Actually, I think they do this because there is some half-baked notion somewhere that people owning their own homes contribute to a more stable society
That, and more political contributions.
“The people who are told they are not qualified for a loan can rent instead.”
Unfortunately, probably not. Unlike buying a house, you need to have a deposit in order to rent.
Hey it is not my fault I don’t have personal reponsibility!!
I want that on a T-Shirt!!!
‘Unlike buying a house, you need to have a deposit in order to rent.”
That’s about as sad as a fact can get.
When I moved into my SFH in San Francisco in 1999, with $2100 month rent, I needed to write a check for $4800, first -last-and-$500 security deposit.
Sounds like your landlord owes you a hundred bucks! (sorry… couldn’t resist)
some vague memory of a Calif law change prompted me to look this up.
A landlord can only get the 1st month and a security deposit.
He might call anything over and above the 1st month’s rent the “last month’s rent plus a $500 security” (or “last and $400″ in this case) but technically, it’s just security.
Total amount of move-in money beyond the 1st month’s rent can be up to two month’s rent, as a “security deposit” …unless there’s a waterbed.
This wording technicality might be important.. i dunno exactly where or how.
if’n any legal eagles can straighten me out, please do.
ok.. i know it’s hard to resist so lemme say:
(or “last and $400″ in this case) should be
(or “last and $600″ in this case)
In essence, there was a $2,700 security deposit.
Two buddies fishing, first one says,’My wife stopped talking to me two months ago when I wouldn’t buy her a house, I think I’ll get a divorce!’ Second buddy,’Leave well enough alone’. hehehehehehehe
Bill,Bill, Bill, Now that just won’t work! I want everything, right now. I deserve it, the credit card company told me so. Everyone is a winner baby. You are talking about responsibility, that’s just old school. Of course being an “old schooler” I agree with you 100%.
But Madison Avenue told all the ladies they can’t get their Girl Power on unless they have the latest bright shiny object.
F-ck Madison Avenue. I hate that Avenue. It is my least favorite Avenue of all. Let the woman think for herself, if she dares. There isn’t a thing in this world that anybody can buy that will truly make them happy.
NYCityBoy:
Bingo.
I didn’t learn that until I was out of debt and tracking my budget. Once I realized that objects do not create happiness, I was much happier.
“And I wasn’t the only slave to my nesting instinct. The people I know who used to sit in the bathroom with p***graphy, now they sit in the bathroom with their IKEA furniture catalogue.”
~Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club, Chapter 5
“You buy furniture. You tell yourself, this is the last sofa I will ever need in my life. Buy the sofa, then for a couple years you’re satisfied that no matter what goes wrong, at least you’ve got your sofa issue handled. Then the right set of dishes. Then the perfect bed. The drapes. The rug. Then you’re trapped in your lovely nest, and the things you used to own, now they own you.”
~Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club, Chapter 5
A profound truth which, if understood widely by the masses, would surely mean the collapse of US retail industry/entertainment industry/consumerism as we know it today.
All purchases, no matter how much they are loved initially, eventually loses their luster–whether an iphone, car, or a dwelling.
Happiness comes from within, and the love of others.
Yeah, but it was some actress who said “I’ve been rich and I’ve been poor - it’s better to be rich”
No, I’m not pro-materialism, just thought I’d balance out the argument…
I will argue that buying the new Harry Potter book WILL, in fact, make me very happy.
The people who are told they are not qualified for a loan can rent instead.
It’s frightening to understand that, to so many people, that concept is subversive if not downright un-amurrican.
Sigh. The ‘teens are going to be so much fun.
Personal responsibility now. Who in the hell would buy a home now? Job transfer, rent. Only a fool would but in a free market place, some will and wonder later “what did I do”.
I sure hope the Fed doesnt cut interest rates! Even they are getting uncomfortable with inflation and they are known to skew the figures. The experts(excluding realwhores) are forecasting a rate hike later this year. As for renting, you only need 1 month desposit. If you don’t even have that money, go join the homeless.
I love how the Realtor has no idea that the Fed Rates don’t directly influence mortgage rates. This is the guy I want to help me with the largest purchase of my lifetime?
SF BB,
Never could get why so many on this board think the Fed has relevance on long term rates. Somebody needs to do a “central bank 101″ informational post.
The Realtors surely are thinking about 1 year ARMs, not those fuddy-duddy 30 year fixed mortgages with 20% down.
Their noses are screaming for the blow of 1.5% Fed funds, and 3.5% “teaser” ARM rates again
“This has squeezed out first-time home buyers, especially in a high-priced market such as the East Bay, the broader Bay Area and the state,”
Okay two MAJOR things wrong (but correct) about this sentence.
1. First time home buyers should not be buying in “high priced areas”.
2. Notice that Perkins actually says the entire state is high priced, just read it as “in high priced areas such as . . the state”.
First time home buyers should not be buying in “high priced areas”.
I disagree with this generalization. Some first-time buyers may in fact be flush with cash and easily able to afford even an expensive house.
But a simple truism does hold: no one who cannot afford a house should buy one. This rule used to be followed, more or less. But it was thrown out the window the past few years, and that is why we are in this mess.
Yep, nothing to do with lowering prices, eh?
“‘Right now we have a skew,’ said real estate broker Richard Calhoun of San Jose. Parts of the market’s high end are selling quickly and appreciating, while the lower end is generally experiencing slow sales and falling prices.”
Yup. What he just said. Example: A house I toured in Menlo Park sold two years ago for $1,060,000. Neighborhood OK but not the best. Came back on the market a few weeks ago, nothing remodeled. Initially asking $1,425,000 and then reduced to $1,299,000. Went pending a week later.
But Menlo Park homes east of 101 for the most part can’t be given away.
That’s because EPA and East MP were (are?) the murder capital of the country. I assumed those folks would get pushed out, to east San Jose and west Oakland/Richmond, but maybe not, eh?
Initially asking $1,425,000 and then reduced to $1,299,000. Went pending a week later.
“Pending” what? A psych evaluation for the buyer?
Yup - the ‘upper end’ is still strong in some parts of the Bay Area.
I live in West Menlo Park and a house down the street went on the market last Sunday for $1.6 million, and sold on Tuesday for $1.7 million.
Now here’s the kicker: It’s all of 2,300 sq./ft.
Wow! Either hes a knife catcher on a suicide loan or I smell mortgage fraud
I grew up in Menlo Park. It’s still inconceivable to me that anything there could be worth North of a million. Even worse, Redwood City goes for million+ sometimes as well…
Was it sold by a congressman to a military contractor
The headline: “Bay Area median home prices slip in most-affordable counties”
Then, waaay down in the 11th paragraph: “The median price for new homes dropped dramatically, down 43 percent, from $750,000 last June to $429,000 last month.”
Yup, that’s pretty dramatic. So, you astute folks at the Press Democrat, why wasn’t that 43% drop the headline?
Okay, I know it was a rhetorical question, but I’ll take a stab at it.
Because:
1. The REIC is a big reason the paper stays in business.
2. The NY Times is part of the 70% ‘Ownership Society’.
(A 43% drop in the median is not a story that “needs” to be told….)
allow the lemmings to buy and sell at 100 to 300
the real money is much higher….
dow 14200 in 3 weeks
gold up
rates down
energy is the bubble and it starts to crack
my plan is coming together…
BWAHAHHAAAHAAA!
“Ochoa said Realtors listed 1,437 used homes for sale last month in Merced County, but they sold only 53 of them. ‘We’re got a huge supply of homes for sale,’ Ochoa said.”
Poor pitiful greedheads must be having involuntary bowel movements when they see the worsening numbers. I love sitting in my Landlord-subsidized rental house, munching popcorn and chortling diabolically as I watch these fools chasing the market all the way down. LUUUUUUUUUUZZZAARS.
Wow, does my calculation deceive me or is that 27 months of supply? What towns comprise Merced County?
Major tourist meccas and industrial hubs such as:
Cities over 10,000 population
Atwater
Livingston
Los Banos
Merced
Incorporated cities under 10,000 population
Dos Palos
Gustine
Towns:-
Ballico
Cressey
Delhi
Hilmar
Le Grand
Planada
Santa Nella
Snelling
South Dos Palos
Stevinson
Winton
Credit: Wikipedia.
(formerly PDXrenter)
Planada…Snelling
Ah, come on, those are joke names, you made them up.
Ah, come on, those are joke names, you made them up.
Few things on line make me laugh out loud. That’s one of them.
No they’re not. I just got done taking a planada and then I wiped my snelling. It felt good, after having the burrito platter for dinner.
…after having the burrito platter for dinner.
Oh my god. #2 laugh-out-loud on Ben’s Blog in one day!
How you gonna act?
I raced (bicycles) in Snelling. Not a made-up name. I recognize a few other names there, too.
All the names are real. Over the last 55 years I have visted them for various reasons professionally. Cressey a neat clean little town is where Miyoshi Umeki was born. She played the lead in Flower Drum Song both on stage and in the film, but then of course any NYC Native might of know her and not were she is from.
Amazing. Snelling made Ben’s blog. My home town. And I still live there. Population 314. Named for a settler family in the 1850’s.
“I just got done taking a planada and then I wiped my snelling. It felt good, after having the burrito platter for dinner. ”
In los banos (the bathrooms?)
Hey, I love Snelling! It’s a cute little town, nicely off the beaten path. I always try to cut through there on my way to La Grange and Copperopolis. Been going there since the early 70s, when my grandparents lived in Arnold (small town past Murphys, a great place to visit, especially if you’re Irish!).
Their problem is the sales pitch! “Ochoa said Realtors listed 1,437 used homes for sale last month in Merced County, but they sold only 53 of them. ‘We’re got a huge supply of homes for sale,’ Ochoa said.”
1,437 seasoned homes were listed last month with 53 snapped up before month’s end. More than one home per day!
“Finish your vegetables, Johnny. There are realtors that would be grateful to have those vegetables.”
Finish your vegetables, Johnny. There are realtors that would be grateful to have those vegetables.
I must just be in a mood or something… damn that’s funny!!!
“LUUUUUUUUUUZZZAARS. ”
Just got a pic of Ace Ventura in my head. . . thanks!
http://au.movies.yahoo.com/Ace+Ventura%3A+When+Nature+Calls/movie/51/photos/?id=0
“Multimedia Gulch”
I’ve always hated that name…smacks of “Silicon Valley” wannabe.
‘The $300,000 to $500,000 crowd, they don’t read the Wall Street Journal.’”
Isn’t this relative after all people reading this blog probably think 500,000 is bought by people who read WSJ, IBD & Barrons and need approval from the wifey to wear blue underwear in the backyard.
Hey, I make a lot less than they do, and I read the WSJ. That is, when I can cadge a copy from my parents after they’re finished reading it, or when I’m traveling and find leftover copies in airports.
You can get discounted rate on the online WSJ account with the print edition.
Seek out local pet store and look on bottom of cages
Nice reference you CNBC watcher.
Thank you.
“Even those rolled-back prices are too high for most families. ‘The median-income family earns about $47,000 a year in Merced County,’ Ochoa said. ‘So it only can afford to buy a home priced about $175,000.’”
I’d be interested to know how many homes would be passed as prices fall from the current median to $175K. There could be much more inventory coming on later this summer and fall as people realize they are 10s or 100s of 1000s of dollars short of what’s owed on their homes, in addition to those who will be foreclosed on. Yikes.
a new movie premiering:
CAPITULATION CULMINATION
Coming soon FALL 07
Awww, what about the Holiday shopping season?
Uh oh! Contained like Chernobyl.
holiday retailers can pretty much forget about all that exuberant consumerism and consumptionism..
This little episode is gonna put the “Oh holy Christ!!” back into Christmas.
“rolled-back” prices is trademarked Walmart. Please cease and desist all use Mr. Oochoa.
invoke Gary Watts, the jury is still out.
“‘We’re not prognosticators,’ said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage, ‘but my forecast for buyers would be sunny skies ahead.’”
Translation:
“We are not really setup to predict the housing market in the future, but what the heck, let me try, THE FUTURE LOOKS FANTASTIC”
Must be a great time to buy………………..
The sunny skys are at the eye of the hurricane. Don’t be fooled by the calm, the storm is still on with a vengeance!
‘A lot are stepping to the sidelines to watch it play out.”
Every time I read I’m on the sidelines I blow a fuse. I’m not on the sidelines… I’m not on the fence. I’m in the stands as a spectator. Its not like I’m dressed up to play the game. Yea, I might run faster and have a better arm than the players on the field, but its too amusing watching them play in the mud.
I wish these people would catch a clue! We’ll wait for affordable homes. Period. Yea… we’ll argue when to buy… but pretty much everone on this blog has written off the next two years (some the next 5).
Got popcorn?
Neil
I don’t even know that there’s a f-cking ballpark where a game is being played.
Got complete, total, absolute disinterest in the buying process?
NYCityBoy
Apparently they’re still selling alcohol in the stands….
grnd stands, thats for kool aide only
I’m in the stands as a spectator. I
Got popcorn?
It should be obvious you’re in the stands. All you got is popcorn. None of that sweet, sweet Kool-Ade™
ROTFL
But isn’t it supposed to be Gatoraide ™ on the field?
‘The $300,000 to $500,000 crowd, they don’t read the Wall Street Journal.’
Astute observation, but on the other hand, how many Brentwood households who bought in the $300K-$500K range in recent years were only able to do so with subprime loans, which are as of late far more difficult to come by?
party’s over
jeez, how may gold vector ETF’s are in the 401k, dear?
cause we may need em…
“‘We’re not prognosticators,’ said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage, ‘but my forecast for buyers would be sunny skies ahead.’” “The median sales price of all homes in Placer County was $428,500 in June, 18.5 percent below its December 2005 peak of $525,500.”
Mister bluebird on my shoulder
It’s the truth
It’s actual
Everything is satisfactual
Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah
Zip-A-Dee-A
Wonderful feeling
Wonderful day
Right! After the rain, sunny skies.
Sorry but it’s still too cloudy for my taste.
Strawberry pickers with no income taxes,
High LTV loans with price income maxes,
All stated subprimes that pass through closings,
These are a few of my favorite things.
cami, beautiful, just beautiful
‘but my forecast for buyers would be sunny skies ahead.’
apparently the tunnel is finally being stretched so wide, the sun is starting to shine in
LOL
Don’t worry, be happy.
Here’s some more stuccoed sunshine in another newish subdivision in Temecula.
Link to video file. Credit to hipmatt from the Piggington forums.
Quicktime required - larger size
http://dcrin3.com/a1/haveston2.mov
Youtube -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-82iJIzZKI
temecula,
south or west of San Angelo?
Call it halfway between San Diego and OC, inland along I-15 on the road to Riverside.
Temecula/Murietta… just one big stucco sprawl.
San Angelo is on Texas
Until I watched this video I had no idea of the crowded lot sizes are in these stucco box developments. Where I am (South central PA) there is a 20 foot side yard setback in the zoning code. How do people live this crowded? They might as well be in ()gasp) an apartment.
And they said 25% declines YoY were inconceivable!
“A three-bedroom house now for sale on Lean Avenue near Calero Park in Blossom Valley…is listed for $580,000. That’s about 7 percent less than the $625,000 price the owner paid for it in September 2005. The owner used a combination of a first and second mortgage to come up with the purchase price, according to public records. The home has been for sale since March.”
I know that area, it’s a merely “OK” place where prices should be a LOT lower for these old worn out looking homes.
“Elk Grove real estate agent and broker associate Jon Nastro said he turns down listings of sellers who still want 2005 prices. The region’s record inventory, he said, stems from ‘too many unrealistic sellers.’”
At least this guy gets it. Adding unsellable listings to the bloated inventory isn’t going to help.
Lately I have been watching new listings and emailing the listing agent with dream prices, politely asking why their listing is so much more expensive than others in the same neighborhood. At least 90% say that the seller set the price. Most of the agents don’t even reply.
Which brings up the question; we have already established that builders have to continue to build; do agents have to continue to list?
ive been taken off the “hot sheet” of the local “home team” of heavy hitter realtors…
whom I might add are upside down and late to a pathetic HOA COndo build out thats 6 units large and 3 are built with 2 sold in the last 18 MONTHS!!!
let the pain increase, sell the f-ckin Lexus and eat some beans and rice….
shayden who?
Bay Area observation from my own street in a nice part of Fremont:
1650 sqft house on a 6500ft lot. The realtor put the sign in last wknd and people stopped before the sign was fixed in the yard. Asking $650k. The pics of the inside show furniture and fixings that unequivocally date back to the early 70s or late 60s. I think the old guy that lived there did not maintain the place very well, but didn’t destroy it either.
Went ‘Sale Pending’ this morning, literally within 5 days. Being a realtor is still a pretty easy gig out here, apparently. Did I mention the house is ugly and next to the only blemished house on the street (condemned and slated for teardown)?
I find it mind boggling. Is this an example of knife catching, or is $650k the new entry level?
I find it mind boggling. Is this an example of knife catching, or is $650k the new entry level?
You just found one of the donkeys in the market….
—————————————————————-
A Homsi went to a zoo one day and saw all of the animals in the zoo laughing except for the donkey.
The next day he went back to the zoo. But this time the donkey was laughing and all the rest of the animals were quiet. The Homsi was confused.
He went to a worker and asked him “how come yeaterday all the animals were laughing and the donkey was quiet and today the donkey is laughing but all the other animals are quiet”. The zookeeper replied “yesterday the monkey told a joke and the animals laughed, donkeys are just a little slow.”
It’s a nice area to live in, still. There’s still a big demand to live in Fremont.
Just think what the price would have been 2 years ago?
If a flipper bought the house, then they’re fools. If a real citizen bought the house because they want to raise their family there, then you just got a good neighbor.
Wow that guy got ahold of massive quantities of kool aid! He will probably get foreclosed as his $650k house becomes $300k and feel like a fool! He could have had a much nicer rental house for less too! The winners are those renting!
Depending on where that house is in Fremont, it could be way too close to the Hayward Fault for my comfort.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone#Potential_for_earthquake_damage
It’s all about the schools in the bay. Fremont has good schools so new families buy there, usually with cash backing from their extended families (very high population of Indians and other Asians). However, this can only go on so long. Patience my son. I’m in Union City renting a so called $700k house for $1600 and nothing’s moving. The cancer will spread.
“‘The pendulum probably swung too far, and now it is swinging back towards more traditional lending guidelines,’ Nesbit said.”
Nope buddy. If you know how a pendulum works and you are familiar with banking, you know that lending guidelines will swing past “traditional lending guidelines”. It’s always worked this way in the past boom and bust cycles and this one is no different. In the future getting a loan will be like having your hair pulled out by your worst enemy - sloooowww and very painful. It’s not going to be fun for anyone applying for a loan. But the buyer will have plenty of “dream homes” to choose from at 50% off today’s prices.
Make that 75% before any smart buyer will sign.
Blackstone sinks like a rock…………….
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Less than a month after its heralded initial public offering Blackstone Group L.P. shares stumbled to an all-time low of $27 Thursday, signaling that private money in the public markets is looking less like a trend and more like a fad.
Blackstone (BX : blackstone group l p com unit ltd
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8:06pm 07/19/2007
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BX27.33, -1.07, -3.8%) is now trading about 12% below its offering price and 29% below its high, reached on its first day of trading. Coupled with Fortress Investment Group LLC’s 30% decline, it’s not looking good for private funds aiming to test the public waters.
It’s all good
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/alternative-funds-await-ipos-blackstone/story.aspx?guid=%7B761F7E08%2D003F%2D44B8%2D8642%2DFEE9DE25D77E%7D
Anybody who got “Friends and Family” shares at the intial offering price are no longer on speaking terms.
People keep saying, “The shoeshine boy isn’t talking about his portfolio, so stocks aren’t at a peak.” Maybe. But two private equity firms made public offerings! A third wanted to. To me, that screams, “TOP.” Maybe not for the overvalued stock market (yet), but at least for the debt bubble. The era of easy credit for buyouts is over. The day of reckoning for recent (overvalued, overleveraged) buyouts is coming. Say what you will, but not all PE managers are stupid. Some know when to cash out.
Check out the chart for FIG. They should rename it to FUG as in fugly.
shoe shine boys..
my accountant friend, brother, and an IT sytems project manager….manhatten beach CA, lubbock TX, and bay area buddy…
when they are “ALL IN” im gettin back out.
Despite DataQuick’s findings, Brian Sharp, broker in Brentwood, said he’s seeing the opposite. ‘We’re hurting in the upper end,’ he said. ‘Our $800,000-and-up market is pretty soft, but our $300,000 to $500,000 (market) is better.’”
“Sharp said that last year his average sale was $738,000. Now it’s closer to $500,000. ‘The higher-end people are nervous about the market,’ he said. ‘The $300,000 to $500,000 crowd, they don’t read the Wall Street Journal.’”
Hey sharp you wouldn’t want to tell those dopes that it is not a good time to buy eeehhh???
Bet?
How long until home builders start advertising “subprime-free” neighborhoods?
Could you make it a condition of a HOA?
Is this going according to script or what?
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rents19jul19,0,228777.story?coll=la-home-business
American Home slumps 21% on credit line concerns.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/american-home-slumps-21-credit/story.aspx?guid=%7B34F26372%2D117E%2D4695%2D8ED7%2D71725684EF36%7D&dist=morenews
Weiss Research Press Release on Housing Crisis .
Press Release:
Federal Regulators, Lenders and Wall Street Blamed
for Worsening Housing and Mortgage Crisis
Investment Research Firm Offers
Nine Proposals for Recovery
JUPITER, Florida, July 19, 2007 — Federal regulators and mortgage lenders were largely responsible for a housing and mortgage crisis that’s likely to worsen, according to a white paper submitted today to the Federal Reserve by Weiss Research, Inc., an investment research firm.
The report’s author, interest rate and real estate analyst Michael Larson, demonstrates that:
Rather than act as a moderating force, the Federal Reserve played an important role in further inflating the housing bubble that’s at the root of the current crisis.
Rather than accept a decline in lending volume as homes became less affordable, lenders debased their standards and incurred the risk of serious long-term damage to their finances, the industry, and, ultimately, the economy.
Wall Street’s large-scale transformation of mortgages into securities significantly boosted risk-taking.
“For many Americans, the dream of home ownership is turning into a nightmare,” writes Larson. “And although borrowers must also share a part of the blame, the burden falls on regulators and lenders to take firm steps to remedy their errors.”
63 Banks and Thrifts Named as
Among the Most Vulnerable
It is often believed that loan losses and defaults have been limited to companies specializing in higher-risk, or subprime, mortgages.
Larson takes issue with that notion, naming 63 traditional banks and thrifts that may be especially vulnerable to the crisis, based on high ratios of nonperforming mortgage loans.
“Loan delinquencies and foreclosures are rising throughout the mortgage system, and the mortgage crisis is not limited to niche players that specialized in low-quality loans,” says Larson.
Nine Proposals for a Long-Term Recovery
With the goal of avoiding quick fixes and fostering a healthy, long-term recovery, Weiss Research offers the following proposals to federal regulators and legislators:
Closer monitoring and prompter action by the Federal Reserve to help avert run-away asset price inflation.
Better enforcement of existing predatory lending statutes.
Better protection of borrowers through a model akin to one recently established between the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) and three subsidiaries of American International Group.
Greater focus by regulators on banks and thrifts whose mortgage performance measures are showing the most stress.
Suitability requirements for the mortgage lending industry.
Rather than a ban on specific lending practices, limiting them to the uniquely qualified borrowers for which they were originally designed.
Federal training, education, licensing, and testing standards for mortgage lenders.
Assignee liability for secondary market buyers of home loans.
More focus on developing programs that promote saving for a down payment.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/press.asp?rls_id=856&cat_id=6
I can’t tell if Bernanke really believes the fantasies he’s telling Congress or is he just stroking the senators. Either way, we’re in deep.
The Merc in San Jose must be paid quite heavily by REs for advertising, because they always spin articles in such a way that prices are increasing. If they mention prices drops, its buried in the article and NEVER in the subject heading. You seem to get a better reporting from the Chronicle.
“Sharp said that last year his average sale was $738,000. Now it’s closer to $500,000. ‘The higher-end people are nervous about the market,’ he said. ‘The $300,000 to $500,000 crowd, they don’t read the Wall Street Journal.’”
LOVE THIS. So in essence, he is saying that only low-income idiots are buying right now?