July 20, 2007

Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For July 20, 2007

Please post off-topic ideas links and Craigslist finds here.




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226 Comments »

Comment by Lou Minatti
2007-07-20 05:17:27

Houston, we have a problem.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4980284.html

Why I think this is a very bad omen for southern California. 50% off fire sale, baby.

http://louminatti.blogspot.com/2007/07/california-real-estate-collapse.html

Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 05:37:07

“It’s a tough sell farther out.”

Gee, who said that you had to stay inside the loop in all of the large TX cities if you had any hopes of retaining that ephemeral “equity”?

 
Comment by Devildog
2007-07-20 05:40:49

From inside the building industry the word is that new home sales in Houston are down 25% so far this year. Houston is still by far the best housing market in the country, but it will progressively get worse as the ARMs reset and people can’t keep up with their HELOCs (big here). The difference between Houiston and other metropolitan areas is here you’re in hock for $150-$200k for a nice home; elsewhere you’re in hock for $600k for a crappy home. IMO $150k is still more than I can afford to be stuck with which is why we sold our home the month before the subprime mess came to light.

Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 05:45:26

Gee, does this sound familiar, Californians? From the Barnacle story:

If there’s a slowdown, Chris Rimkus doesn’t see it.

Rimkus and his wife, Christy, who have a 1-year-old daughter, recently sold their two-bedroom, one-bathroom home in Southgate near the Texas Medical Center in about seven days for almost $410,000. They earned nearly 50 percent more than what they paid for it less than two years ago. A builder bought the house as a tear-down.

The couple purchased a larger home in the same area because they want a bigger family.

“Everywhere else you hear people talk about the housing market slowdown, but not here,” Rimkus said. “We made a fortune on our house.”

Real estate agents said strong demand in many close-in areas like West University and places close to the Medical Center and Rice University is being driven by job growth and more people moving closer into the city to avoid long commutes.

Cathy Blum, an agent with Greenwood King Properties, said many buyers are willing to sacrifice square footage and lot size to be close to in-town jobs, restaurants, museums and sports facilities.

“Inventory is extremely tight,” said Blum, who specializes in high-end, close-in neighborhoods. “Days on the market are very low, and people have to react very quickly. It’s not uncommon to see multiple offers on many homes and sales prices going over the asking price.”

Comment by Virginia
2007-07-20 06:26:08

They “earned” nearly 50 percent more than what they paid for it less than two years ago?
Interesting choice of verb.

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Comment by Front Range Bob
2007-07-20 07:12:16

Indeed… Rather than “earned,” it would have been more appropriate to say they “gambled and got lucky.”

 
Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 12:13:38

Of course, the GF who bought that sh-hole will have been “robbed” by the time it turns over.

 
 
Comment by FutureVulture
2007-07-20 08:27:08

The couple purchased a larger home in the same area because they want a bigger family.

Aren’t there less painful ways to get a bigger family?

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Comment by Rich
2007-07-20 11:21:09

hahah, yes. It’s called sex.

 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2007-07-20 08:29:45

What are the taxes on a $410,000 house in Texas? Has to be over 10 grand a year.

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Comment by Trojan Horse
2007-07-20 10:21:52

$12,300/yr

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by cheezbubbler
2007-07-20 05:19:48

PEORIA, Ill. (AP) — Caterpillar Inc., one of the world’s largest construction equipment makers, said Friday its second-quarter profit fell 21 percent, hurt by weakness in North American construction markets.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070720/earns_caterpillar.html?.v=3

Comment by jmf
2007-07-20 05:29:02

Watsco cuts 2007 profit oulook

Friday reduced its 2007 earnings outlook to $2.70-$2.80 a share, from $3.25-$3.35 a share. The Coconut Grove, Fla.-based air conditioning and heating equipment distributor was expected to earn $3.17 a share, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson Financial

 
Comment by packman
2007-07-20 06:08:18

Dang. I just short-sold CAT the other day, for just this reason. I’m sure this news will send their price up a lot. Hope I don’t get a margin call.

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-07-20 06:57:11

Well, for once, the news seems to be causing the “expected” reaction. CAT is under huge selling pressure right now! They are pulling the Dow down by 50+ points right now, supposedly just by themselves (the rest of the DOWN are relatively flat).

I am sure we will get a huge pop and end on the positive for the day; cocaine Kudlow says so!

:)

Comment by packman
2007-07-20 07:29:38

He he - looks like fortuitous timing after all. I got *really* lucky. I was just noticing all the Caterpillar trucks working on the new developments around me and thinking I’ll bet they’ll be hit a fair amount by the downturn, and wondered if their stock was down. Lo and behold when I got to work I see they were hitting new highs - so I shorted. Lucky timing! I don’t plan to cover though until they hit 60, unless they drag it out. I think they’re in for some more rough quarters ahead.

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Comment by IllinoisBob
2007-07-20 05:21:46

Caterpillar Profit Falls on U.S. Housing Market, Truck Demand

July 20 (Bloomberg) — Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of earthmoving machines, said second-quarter profit fell 21 percent because of the weak U.S. housing market and falling demand for truck engines.

Net income dropped to $823 million, of $1.24 a share, from $1.05 billion, or $1.52, a year earlier, the Peoria, Illinois- based company said today in a statement sent by PR Newswire. Sales climbed 7.1 percent to $11.4 billion.

The U.S. housing recession has hurt demand for Caterpillar’s construction equipment, and Chief Executive Officer James W. Owens has been pushing for increased revenue from China and India to counter the domestic weakness. U.S. truck sales declined after companies bought cheaper models ahead of stricter emissions standards imposed this year.

Move along, nothing to see here the housing meltdown is contained !!!
Righhtt :-)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atVriB9_9cnY&refer=home

Comment by wmbz
2007-07-20 05:55:44

Chief Executive Officer James W. Owens has been pushing for increased revenue from China and India to counter the domestic weakness.

That’s fine for the Corp. but it does not help the U.S. independent dealer!

Comment by vozworth
2007-07-20 06:30:25

as a dealer, I can tell you……Warranty is a major issue for cat as reimbursements have slowed significantly, and mid-year price increase on parts was 3.5%….for the year parts are up over 7%

 
 
Comment by WAman
2007-07-20 06:13:22

Yea that’s right - it’s different this time.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-07-20 10:12:26

Same thing happened to Cat in the last economic downturn. I remember driving past a large field in southern PA and seeing several acres of bright yellow Cat products of every sort. Some were probably repossessed, others off-rental (with no likelihood of another rental anytime soon). But a year or two later they were gone, as the economy picked up again.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-07-20 05:24:18

Now the Chicago city government is getting in on the act…

Spotted in bus shelter near Peterson & Pulaski on the NW side of Chicago is a 4 foot by 6 foot illuminated ad taken out by the city. It pictures a boarded up house with a red “foreclosed” banner across it.

“Worried about losing your home?” it asks “Get help from a trusted source - The City of Chicago” ” The City of Chicago, opening the door to affordable living” Call 311 or go to http://www.cityofchicago.org/housing

This is wrong for so many reasons I don’t where to start, so all I’m gonna say on this wonderful Friday morning is…

Go Tokyo 2016! (Olympics)

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-07-20 06:16:19

http://tinyurl.com/yttsap

First-time home buyers have an affordable opportunity at the ArmitEdge development, a new 24-unit condominium development, in Logan Square, one of the City’s up-and-coming neighborhoods.

At ArmitEdge, 3021 W. Armitage Ave., qualified buyers can purchase an affordably-priced condominium in the community under a program that allows first-time homebuyers to buy affordable units in market rate developments.

The inclusion of the ArmitEdge units in the Chicago Community Land Trust (CCLT) also means they will remain affordable for the long-term. Under the CCLT initiative, housing units are sold at affordable prices, even though their market value is considerably higher.

“This is a good example of how two important programs work together to keep neighborhoods affordable and help new homebuyers own a home of their own,” Acting Housing Commissioner Ellen Sahli said.

Anna Lombardo, a single mother with a 10-year-old son, believes she got lucky this summer, buying one of the affordable units, a 1,000 square foot condominium with two bedrooms and one full bath only a block from one of the wide boulevards that dot the neighborhood. Historic homes line each side of the street.

In the ArmitEdge development, similar market rate units are priced from $279,000 to $299,000 but the affordable units sell for $175,000.

While $175K is certainly better than $279K+, I still wouldn’t consider $175K “affordable” housing. The single mom in the story would need to be making $58K+ if we apply the 2.5 - 3 x income rule (which apparently is so old school that realtors just laugh hysterically when you bring it up). Ok, she might make that, but I kind of doubt it.

A very good friend of mine who makes a decent salary (in the $70s), bought a condo in Rogers Park a few years back for around $165K and she worries about finance.

I remember back in the late 90s (I believe), there were two towns in the far west suburbs of Chicago that were building affordable housing communities. The homes ranged from around the $90s to low $100s and they were little communities. One was in Aurora, I forget where the other was. THAT is what I consider affordable. (Wonder what those go for now…)

Comment by flatffplan
2007-07-20 06:25:11

they just bill the taxpayer for the difference

Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-07-20 07:10:14

Actually, what happens (in Chicago) is that the city will sell you an abandoned lot for $1 if you agree to build an “affordable” home on it within a certain amount of time (I think it’s somewhere in the range of 18 months).

If the new owner sells the home within a certain time period (I believe it’s 7-10 years), they only get to keep a percentage of the profit - prorated based upon the “discount” from market rate they bought at. The rest of the money goes to the Community Land Trust to be used to provide incentives for larger developments to provide affordable units. Many of the really large developments downtown get bonuses to built taller or bigger by donating money straight into that Trust.

I would like to see more info on this, but it really does appear to be a win-win situation for all involved, without taxpayers footing the bill - most of those abandoned lots now owned by the city are essentially dead property that are not generating revenue.

The only “shady” aspect I have seen so far is that you have to be a connected (wink wink) developer to get in on the action, because each lot sale must be introduced by an alderman before the city council and then voted on. If you go to the city website, you can find pdfs of all city council meetings. Search through them and you will find tons and tons of these sales. I suppose it’s an open secret…

The developers really make out big time - they get $200,000-800,000 discounts on the land in exchange for knocking $50,000-150,000 off the price of the unit.

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Comment by eastcoaster
2007-07-20 06:37:24

Answered my own question. These homes now sell for $168K - $255K. What a shame.

http://www.americanhomeguides.com/apps/data/go/ahg/floorplans/HPC-11494.html

 
Comment by Chad
2007-07-20 07:22:38

“ArmitEdge”

Shouldn’t that be ARMPITedge?

Comment by phillygal
2007-07-20 07:35:18

terrible name for a housing development.

What the eff happened…did they run out of “Chases” and “Leas” and “Ridings”?

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Comment by Chad
2007-07-20 07:48:07

“did they run out of “Chases” and “Leas” and “Ridings”? ”

They Chased down Leah, and now they are Riding her.

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 12:52:04

I’m confused. Only some of the units are affordable? So, for the rest of the units, where does the city get the right to buy/sell real estate in the open market? Not good.

 
 
 
Comment by Front Range Bob
2007-07-20 05:26:59

John M. Berry, long-time MSM shill for the Fed, finds someone who can say with a straight face that complaints about Helicopter Ben’s focus on the core CPI are only a “weird populist twist, a view of an uncaring Fed.”: http://tinyurl.com/2a9f9d

The Fed cares about us! Repent unbelievers, and rejoice! Everything’s good! ;-)

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 06:58:32

Ron Paul begged to disagree:

(RON) PAUL: Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

And welcome, Chairman Bernanke.

I share the concern for the inequality that has developed in our country. I think it’s very real. I think it’s a source of great resentment. And, unfortunately, I think it’s one of those things that puts a lot of pressure on the Congress to increase the amount of government programs and government spending, which I do not think is the answer.

I believe the inequality comes specifically from the type of currency we have. When there is a deliberate debasement of a currency, it is predictable that the middle class is injured, the poor are hurt, and there’s a transfer of wealth to the wealthy.

And until we understand that, I do not believe we can solve this problem. And if we resort to continued monetary inflation and more government programs, we will only make this inequality worse.

This is exactly opposite of what happens when you have a sound currency and free markets, because it is the sound currency and free markets which creates the middle class and creates prosperity and allows the best distribution of this wealth.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. It comes from the Federal Reserve system. The Federal Reserve has tremendous pressure put on them because almost everybody wants low interest rates, except if you happen to be a saver. Then you might not like artificially low interest rates. But, of course, that contributes to the lack of savings, which is another problem that we have in this country.

We concentrate on inflation by implying — and everybody casually accepts that inflation is a price problem. But the prices that go up is one of the consequences of inflation. Inflation causes a malinvestment. It causes excessive debt. And it causes financial bubbles that we have to deal with.

But we have a lot of information today available to us to show that there’s a lot of monetary inflation going on. For instance, if you look at MZM, it’s growing at almost a 9 percent rate. M3, no longer available to us from the official sources, but private sources tell us it’s growing at a 13 percent rate.

Of course we can reassure ourselves and say the CPI is growing at a 2.6 percent rate. But if you go back to the old method of calculating the CPI, closer to what the average person is suffering and one of the reasons why there’s an inequality going on, is it’s growing at over a 10 percent rate.

The fact that the dollar is weak on the international exchange markets cannot be ignored.

For instance, just in six months, the Canadian dollar increased 11 percent against our dollar. This should stir up some concern.

One concern that I have that I think is causing more problems and keeps us from coming to a solution is the divorce between the exchange value of the dollar on the international exchange markets and the effort to lower the value of the dollar in order to increase exports, which can only be done through inflation, at the same time believing that we can have stability of prices at home, because that is a disconnect that is not possible.

If we strive for a lower dollar in the exchange markets, we will have price increases here at home, and we have to deal with it.
——————————————————————————
Transcript: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
House Committee on Financial Services Holds a Hearing on Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy

CQ Transcripts Wire
Wednesday, July 18, 2007

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/transcripts/bernanke_071807.html

Comment by Front Range Bob
2007-07-20 07:15:42

Well, yeah, but Ron Paul totally rules, meaning he doesn’t stand a chance of getting elected despite my imminent vote in the primary.

Comment by BubbleViewer
2007-07-20 07:25:08

I think that eventually people are going to start to connect the dots between our dishonest, immoral, and blatantly unconstitutional monetary system and the problems we are seeing manifesting - housing bubble, war, rising energy prices, etc., etc.
We have a monetary system that is exactly the one that the founding fathers warned us about. If you read what they said at the time, the founding fathers believed they had shut the door forever on paper money systems. They knew they were “not worth a Continental.”
The housing bubble would never have been possible under the constitutional monetary system.
The war in Iraq would never have been possible under the constitutional monetary system.
Rising energy prices would not be as much of a concern under the constitutional monetary system, because we would not be locked onto a treadmill of requiring exponential “growth” every year to keep the charade going.

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Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2007-07-20 07:42:40

Bubbleviewer, people respond to slogans, not facts. This is why Ron Paul is a longshot. Nevertheless, if he’s the candidate, I certainly will vote for him. I cannot vote for him in the Republican primary because I’m registered Libertarian.

 
Comment by Front Range Bob
2007-07-20 08:49:26

Dewd, we’re talking about sheeple here. They’re not going to connect any dots; rather, they’re going to whine, snivel, and file lawsuits, and then they’ll act surprised when one day the U.S. bonar is valueless and all the entitlement programs have been sucked dry.

 
Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-07-20 09:10:15

Ron Paul is a long shot if he frames his candidacy around radical economic reform (although he’s completely correct in his views). People simply do not want to have the veil pulled from their eyes. If he continues to pound on the Iraq War, he stands a very good shot at winning the GOP nomination as he is the only candidate who has spoken the truth from the beginning. If you doubt his support, take a look at the recent contribution numbers that show employees of the U.S. military gave more to Paul’s campaign in the 2nd quarter than to all other GOP candidates combined:

http://www.iraqslogger.com/index.php/post/3609/Antiwar_Ron_Paul_Rakes_in_Military_Donations

You think the military wants out of Iraq or what?

 
Comment by spike66
2007-07-20 11:45:40

Great link, thanks.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-07-20 16:23:57

If Ron Paul’s bid starts getting discernable traction the MSM will quickly radicalize his image/agenda with the all too eager help of shills and hacks from BOTH parties.

Still - a vote for Ron Paul, regardless of the outcome, would probably be the first time my vote would carry any meaningful significance since I became eligible twenty years ago.

At any rate I’d love to flip a pre-emptive bird in the direction of the MSM and their sponsors in BOTH parties that can’t wait to dishonor an honorable man.

 
 
 
Comment by salinasron
2007-07-20 08:02:22

“I believe the inequality comes specifically from the type of currency we have. When there is a deliberate debasement of a currency, it is predictable that the middle class is injured, the poor are hurt, and there’s a transfer of wealth to the wealthy.”

I disagree totally. If we made everybody equal(monitarily) tomorrow, in less then 10 yrs we would be essentially where we are today. Most people in society function on their wants(instant gratification) and desires and not on common sense. I’ve seen new developments where the poor moved in and trashed because they lacked any type of self control or appreciation for what society was doing to correct their plight. Bottom line is that social engineering does not work when you have 8 yr old kids trapped in the bodies of 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 and up yr old bodies.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 08:07:34

Paul was specifically addressing the fact that the Fed is levying a stealth inflation tax on labor income. I don’t get your point.

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Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:04:53

I’m not sure, salinasron, but I think Paul may have been talking about having a currency that’s not backed by gold. Was a good wealth-maker in the beginning, but is turning out to be a debt maker for those of us down the line.

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Comment by WAman
2007-07-20 08:16:56

If the fed cannot flood the market with cheap money than company X can raise the price of its products and continue to sell them. With no money available for someone else to start up a company and make the same products that company X makes company X will have a monopoly and can charge what ever it wants for its products. Some of which might be essential for life itself. I would hate to see the kind of inflation that this would cause.

Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-07-20 08:59:06

They had no problems raising money to start mining companies to mine the comstock load and eventually depress the price of silver back in the 19th century. Silver was and is money and it brought the price of that down. What’s your point?

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Comment by WAman
2007-07-20 09:29:35

You want the economy of the 19th century? You have to be kidding?

 
Comment by watcher
2007-07-20 11:26:15

I want the money of the 19th century. It was real and could not be inflated away.

 
 
Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-07-20 09:00:12

Please tell me you’re joking with this post! It’s usually difficult to discern sarcasm from ignorance on the Web.

Inflation is DEAD in an economy in which money is tied to a commodity (i.e. gold). Google for U.S. historic inflation charts going back to the 19th century and you’ll see inflation has been a non-issue in this country until the creation of the Fed.

If the money supply is limited, how can a company “charge whatever it wants”? If there is only so much money chasing a theoretically infinite supply of wealth, prices can only come down over time.

There will always be capital investors ready to pursue new markets in anticipation of profiting from capturing future market demand. In a commodity-based system, they won’t be be to insulate themselves from risk by stealing everyone else’s wealth via inflation.

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Comment by Army No. Va.
2007-07-20 11:13:26

“Google for U.S. historic inflation charts going back to the 19th century and you’ll see inflation has been a non-issue in this country until the creation of the Fed.”

Not totally true, but the point is a good one. Lincoln’s greenbacks created signficant inflation in the 1861-1866 timeframe. The contraction of the money supply in 1869 through 1896 was a deflationary period which was quite painful leading to many foreclosures, etc… resulted in the 1896 William Jenning Bryan - “thou shall not crucify mankind on a (deflationary) cross of gold”. After the panic of 1907, the US instituted the Fed to “better” manage the money supply.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:07:59

WAman:

I don’t get it. If the Fed “floods the market with cheap money”, then aren’t they encouraging investors to disregard risk premiums? They are supposed to have a balanced approach so that investment is possible, but not an economic bubble.

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Comment by Chrisusc
2007-07-20 08:45:51

That guy is pretty sharp - which is why he won’t get the nomination…

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 09:34:47

Right. The U.S. electorate heavily favors candidates who are short on substance and long on sound bites and litmus test issues.

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Comment by not a gator
2007-07-20 10:43:23

Or had the “right” parents.

 
 
 
Comment by patient renter
2007-07-20 10:53:32

I heart Ron Paul.

 
 
 
Comment by sunsetbeachguy
Comment by wmbz
2007-07-20 05:52:43

yep, you’re going to “give me $900,000.00″ and I don’t have any money… I’ll take it!!

 
Comment by Sarah in DC
2007-07-20 06:23:02

Thanks, sunsetbeachguy– this is priceless!

“I mean, at the time I was like one windstorm away from a youth hostel, and they say, “Here, take 900 grand…”"

 
Comment by not a gator
2007-07-20 10:46:59

awesome link. Thanks!

 
 
Comment by wmbz
Comment by cheezbubbler
2007-07-20 05:56:23

great quote from the article above for a good morning chuckle:

“Anyone who says they’re not concerned about the oversupply of condos is practicing the ostrich theory”

 
Comment by Muggy
2007-07-20 05:56:43

Awesome article. Totally doomer. Love it.

“The wave of baby boomer retirees is gathering momentum, and the weaker dollar makes Florida seem like a bargain to Europeans,” Denslow said. “With any luck at all that will sustain us.”

Here comes boomer!

Comment by Moman
2007-07-20 12:27:17

All those boomers have been slaving away for years and spending like a bunch of drunks to go live in a downtown Miami condo for retirement……riiiiiiiiiighhhhhhhhht

We’ll see a bunch more people decide to stay in their areas in the future and not move to the sunbelt.

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 05:48:41

How fitting if Google puts in the top on this ridiculous rally. It has been the poster child for market excess.

You all see this?

They Love To Be Misled By WaMu
John Succo Jul 19, 2007 9:14 am

Headline numbers are misleading and credit deterioration should hurt future results…

Despite the headline beat, most of the numbers under the number were pretty negative. Washington Mutual’s (WM) operating results were characterized by sizable credit quality deterioration within its home loan, home equity and subprime mortgage portfolios.

What made up for these declines were largely one-time in nature: strong depositor fee growth (largely driven by teaser rates—offering a high short-term rate on deposit and hoping people are too lazy to change banks when that rate expires); exceptionally (unbelievably) large gains on expense controls; and some improved profitability in mortgage banking.

Another one-time, or non-recreatable event: Gain on sale revenue rose $97 million, owing primarily to favorable margins. It’s not clear, however, how much of that margin improvement was due to a shift in product mix (so they might have sold the good stuff and be stuck with the crap). Margins should come down in the next couple of quarters, this was about 20 bps higher than normal.

Looking through the numbers, it also appears to us that WaMu released $37 million in loan loss reserves in 2Q, despite increasing delinquencies and rising loss severities. WaMu raised its 2007 full-year loan loss provision guidance by another $200 million, implying about $500 million in expected second quarter losses.

Comment by Jingle
2007-07-20 07:26:50

How much of WAMU’s “revenue” was uncollected neg am interest booked as income??

 
Comment by desmo
2007-07-20 09:42:56

What made up for these declines were largely one-time in nature: strong depositor fee growth (largely driven by teaser rates—offering a high short-term rate on deposit and hoping people are too lazy to change banks when that rate expires);

I have a WAMU 13 month CD maturing in a couple months, 5.85% apy, 5.7% yield. btw, could somebody explain why banks give the apy, and yield and what should I look for when buying a CD?

 
 
Comment by samk
2007-07-20 06:01:24

Pittsburgh housing market dips:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/business/s_518144.html

Home values increased ~3.3%, but sales are down 4.4% and starts are down ~21%.

Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 06:17:04

This is like “The Stand” The virus is spreading.

Comment by Front Range Bob
2007-07-20 07:17:50

Good thing I already live close to Denver… ;-)

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2007-07-20 12:34:52

Actually they had to flee to Boulder. How much of a nerd am I for knowing that?

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2007-07-20 07:43:03

Soon to be followed by “The Fire Starter”

 
 
 
Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2007-07-20 06:12:50

Earthquake jolts San Fransisco
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070720/ap_on_re_us/bay_area_quake

Overpriced tear-downs for everyone! They’re not making any more rubble, you know…

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 07:21:31

Magnitude 4.2 = no big deal (they must be desperate for news items on Yahoo…)

Comment by Chad
2007-07-20 07:30:01

Oh no, a plate was broken.

Comment by Its Crazy Credit!
2007-07-20 18:13:13

i can sleep thru those. Northridge - diff story altogether

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Comment by WAman
2007-07-20 08:21:54

Sometimes a small earthquake is an indication of a much large earthquake that is coming.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 09:35:48

That’s true. And there have been lots and lots of small earthquakes on the financial markets thus far this year.

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Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:35:30

Yeah, but these 4.x quakes happen all the time. I don’t think the likelihood of experiencing the “big one” has changed after this event.

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Comment by Its Crazy Credit!
2007-07-20 18:15:14

depends on where it was = hence how much pressure it is causing somewhere else

 
 
 
 
Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-07-20 07:22:53

It’s just God sending a warning to Barry Bonds.

Comment by sf jack
2007-07-20 07:51:17

By that reasoning, I have to ask when will Texas and Chicago (Sammy the Steroid), St. Louis (Puffy McGwire) or NYC (Human Giambi Hormone) also see a quake?

Comment by TheGuru
2007-07-20 08:46:10

NYC had the steam pipe explosion near Grand Central. Giambi is not a threat to any records and is alos on the disabled list. Bonds is in the crosshairs of the big man upstairs.

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Comment by wmbz
2007-07-20 06:14:05

From South Carolina…The reporter/note taker in this article just eats what is being spoon feed by the realtors and pukes it out on the page. We are just starting to correct around the midlands and are way over built and continue to build like crazy!

http://www.thestate.com/news/story/123620.html

Comment by Carolina W
2007-07-20 08:13:48

We drove back home from Myrtle Beach to Greenville last weekend and, passing thru Columbia, couldn’t believe the billboard ads for full brick homes starting in the “low 200’s”. They start at about 450K here in Greenville county!

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 06:14:30

KB Home CEO sez mkt won’t bottom now until late ‘08 and no price increases before ‘09

Comment by ragerunner
2007-07-20 07:12:21

Is their a link to this comment. Or was it on TV?

 
Comment by sf jack
2007-07-20 07:53:14

Good for the KB Home CEO.

He sounds like an upbeat HBB’er in the summer of 2005.

 
Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:37:32

Overly optimistic.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 06:16:00

Aussie hedge fund “Basis Capital” can’t meet margin calls due to SP loan positions; JPM/Citi have seized assets.

Comment by Neil
2007-07-20 07:38:57

OH… Link?

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by Chad
2007-07-20 07:49:09

Part of one of Ben’s headliners yesterday.

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2007-07-20 06:18:44

Salvation Army in Tampa Bay Area swamped with requests for help with energy bills. It’s contained!

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2007/7/20/272643.html?title=More+Bay+area+households+struggling+with+power+bills

 
Comment by Brian
2007-07-20 06:26:08

Nice article with links about newspapers taking a hit by “slumping” RE :

http://techdirt.com/articles/20070719/125005.shtml

Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:41:14

I only read the paper for the funnies anyway. They should run with that.

 
 
Comment by spike66
2007-07-20 06:27:35

Home Builder NVR’s Net Slides 52%

NVR664.00, -6.00, -0.9% ) Friday said its second-quarter profit fell 52% from a year earlier to $90.7 million, or $14.14 a share as home-building revenue slipped to $1.3 billion from $1.72 billion. The Reston, Va.-based company said new home orders fell 11% as sales and profit margins “continue to be negatively impacted by high levels of new and existing home inventories, affordability issues and declining home buyer confidence.” NVR said its cancellation rate held steady from the first quarter at 16%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-builder-nvr-incs-net/story.aspx?guid=%7B83F6BF86%2D024E%2D4C22%2DB30F%2D5B7DF1B05897%7D&dist=hplatest

Comment by flatffplan
2007-07-20 06:44:24

if they we’re heavy DC they’d be underwater like the rest

 
 
Comment by wmbz
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 07:30:25

Five Reasons to Sell, Sell, Sell
Stocks may be hitting record levels, but there are still plenty of factors that could derail this rally. Here are five reasons to worry

Time to buy the dip! The stock market always goes up…

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-07-20 08:44:52

Heard the same exact thing from just about everyone on CNBC this morning. Common thread amoung all people taking this position - they were brokers…

 
 
Comment by WAman
2007-07-20 08:27:23

From the article

“So far problems with housing haven’t infected the rest of the economy, which seems poised to bounce back from slow growth in the first quarter”.

That is just BS. Who writes this nonsense?

 
 
Comment by John Fontain
2007-07-20 06:44:26

Denial in D.C.

An acquaintance is asking $100,000 more for his condo than the asking price of another exact comp in his building (which itself is lingering for months with no bites despite the significantly lower asking price). So the other day he starts telling me that he thinks the reason his place isn’t selling is because other sellers are ruining the market.

I ask him to explain what he means and he tells me that other sellers are in distress and have to sell and that they are causing prices to fall below “where they should be” (his words). Needless to say, he is upset that other sellers are pricing their units “too low” and hurting his sales prospects. He says he thinks these other sellers shouldn’t lower their prices but should hold out at higher prices.

I didn’t bother explaining to him that if buyers won’t buy at the “reduced” prices they sure as hell won’t buy at higher prices. I just listened and thought “oh, the denial runs deep.” Why are people so clueless?

Comment by JP
2007-07-20 07:05:00

He says he thinks these other sellers shouldn’t lower their prices but should hold out at higher prices.

Couldn’t agree more, damn those sellers. Put ‘em in the same cell as the bums who are selling CIEN for $39/share, when it should be back at $1000.

Comment by phillygal
2007-07-20 07:39:47

These posts just leave me dazed and confused. Evidently there’s no awareness of market dynamics. It really does point to a narcissistic outlook on life. Is this the housing market the Me Generation has wrought?

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-07-20 10:17:23

Ask 20 people on the street to explain the “law of supply and demand.” I bet you don’t get more than one knowledgeable answer.

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Comment by stealth4
2007-07-20 07:38:30

Does he “need” to sell? When will the lack of a sale begin to impact his finances and his life?

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-07-20 07:46:24

Just try getting a job today, I can’t tell you the last time i ever talked to an adult about my resume. its always some clueless 20 something little chicky-poo who can’t even tell me what the full job description is.

” Why are people so clueless?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-20 08:41:23

Reason #1 why I continue to tough it out in my own business. I just don’t suffer twentysomething fools gladly.

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-07-20 08:50:00

Once colleges starting offering degrees in H.R., those H.R. staffers started believing they actually knew something. They are mostly those that couldn’t pass Accounting and Finance and thus also too stupid for Medicine, Nursing, Law, Engineering, etc. I won’t apply for a job where I have to jump through their hoops. If I can’t interview with the ultimate decision-maker, then they can have the job…

Comment by Remain calm. All is well
2007-07-20 09:26:07

Good point. Heck, if I was a hiring manager I’d intentionally put an HR drone at the front gate just to weed out those who can’t get past them.

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Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:51:43

What was your name again?

 
 
 
Comment by Ed Bear
2007-07-20 09:35:06

We just interviewed a young woman who applied for a job with us - she informed us that she had a trip booked next month and therefore while she could start very soon, she would need to leave for six weeks just a couple of weeks after starting.

Naturally we fell all over ourselves to accommodate her needs, so that she wouldn’t have to cancel her special trip just to deal with our icky job offer.

Not.

Comment by polly
2007-07-20 10:18:13

Actually there is a way to do that sort of thing. I had made arrangements for a short trip once that put me in a similar situation.

I made my arrangements for the trip in December or so of year A. The trip (week and a half) was to take place in August of year a+1. In late July of year a+1, after my resume was sent in by a recruiter and several rounds of interviews, I was offered a job. They really wanted me. I wanted the job. I expressed how excited I was by the offer and THEN I noted that I had made a arrangements for the trip. I told them I could start before the trip and take unpaid leave for trip if they liked. I offered to start directly after the trip if they preferred. I also offered to skip the whole thing and lose my unrefundable tickets if that was really necessary, but I preferred not to if there was any way around it. They told me to start early, get through all the HR stuff, a few of the mandatory trainings, meet everyone, and take the trip by borrowing against future vacation. No problem. It meant that I would be around and working over Christmas when everyone else wanted to be on vacation anyway.

Recruiters, etc. always tell you get the offer FIRST. Then tell the employer about a previously planned trip and offer to be flexible. Unless you don’t really want the job. Then you can be as obnoxious as you want.

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Comment by Liz from Boston
2007-07-20 10:37:44

she informed us that she had a trip booked next month and therefore while she could start very soon, she would need to leave for six weeks just a couple of weeks after starting.

If you asked when she could start, I don’t think her response was out of line.

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Comment by not a gator
2007-07-20 10:57:19

Actually, last year my girlfriend got a job in August, then explained that she was leaving for a week for Chicago (to meet my grandmother). It worked out. She finished her thesis, showed up for a week and a half of job training, left for the trip, came back and started work.

It helped that she was well-qualified and enthusiastic, and it was only a week. It also kind of gave them a trial on her, since she was there for the week of training but then would be gone. They were very impressed with her in training and quite happy to have her return.

 
Comment by Ed Bear
2007-07-20 11:19:17

Whatever - when I have a stack of resumes inches high and someone is fortunate enough to get an interview for a position we need filled right away, I’m utterly uninterested in self-involved drivel about your travel plans.

Next.

 
Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:56:24

Hi Ed:

I guess if you have a stack of resumes. It’s weird, but I don’t think any employer has had a stack of resumes from people who are qualified for my job in years. Are some of your applicants foreign?

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 13:50:24

Why is age discrimination against the young OK, but not against the old? I’m betting you’re a boomer?

 
 
Comment by jag
2007-07-20 07:49:46

“Why are people so clueless?”

Admitting to a loss (real or potential) may be one of the hardest things a person can do. Whether its a death, loss of a friendship, lover or property, losses register harder in our emotional psyche than just about anything else. Why? We are still primitive beings. Losses are “lessons”. When, not that long ago, man had to scramble around to merely exist day to day, mistakes could easily be fatal.

I think its just our primitive nature. Gains are emotionally nice but (as we all know) often fleeting. Losses, however, are often a personal wound, insult. “How could I have been so stupid as to ….”

We dwell on losses, not gains. Why? Because we want to understand what happened so as to avoid similar pain in the future. Its natural, primitive and likely unavoidable for virtually all of us. Loses wound our ego far more than gains inflate our egos. Loss means you (possibly) were “stupid”.

Who wants to admit that?

Comment by WAman
2007-07-20 08:29:31

Sounds like there will be a lot of sad and angry people.

 
 
Comment by Joe
2007-07-20 08:22:49

Tell him he needs to think in terms of current prevailing market conditions. This is what his neighbors did a few years ago when prices were climbing. I doubt he pined about other sellers then when they were trying to find the optimal price for market conditions then, so I do not know why he would be complaining about sellers who are pricing units in accord with market conditions now. Maybe he needs a course in economics and needs to go to a clinic to be deprogrammed. Realty prices do not always go up, especially in the most volatile sector of realty, condos!!

In the alternative you can send him to a clinic that treats people who suffer from “cranial rectal inversions”. Its not life threatening, but in his case it could harm his financial health depending upon his need to sell.

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-07-20 08:51:48

I would keep him as an acquiantance, cause he sounds pretty stupid and as someone else mentioned - a bit too self-focused.

 
Comment by FutureVulture
2007-07-20 09:21:10

I ask him to explain what he means and he tells me that other sellers are in distress and have to sell and that they are causing prices to fall below “where they should be” (his words).

When that happens, what you do is, you take a thick black magic marker and write “DENIAL” on his forehead. It won’t help him, but it is fun.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-07-20 09:44:58

“..in distress and have to sell.. ”

i doubt he’d rather be competing with foreclosed properties all around him..

 
Comment by polly
2007-07-20 10:30:26

One reason why I am not even looking in the DC area.

If you ever decide to play into his denial (instead of just telling him the market price is what a buyer will give you), you could tell him that the loss is the price he has to pay for buying in a building and/or area filled with people who “have to sell.” Even if he can afford his unit, if other people in his building were paying prices they couldn’t afford, if put the value of his unit at risk.

One of the reasons I am seriously thinking that I won’t be able to buy a condo in the DC area. I’m not much into gardening and would rather not have to maintain a lawn, but I just can’t see buying into a large building in the DC area. People stop paying the condo fees before they stop paying the mortgage leaving the building’s finances a total mess. Long term, I’ll have to be looking for a small house. Assuming there are any left within walking distance of the metro.

 
Comment by kuga428
2007-07-20 15:57:54

I hear similar things all the time in the DC area. The price tags people put on their houses or condos (and some of these places are junk heaps) are laughable. True I moved from the Deep South where houses are certainly a better buy for the money, but even if I was from another area of the country the “values” leave me in stitches. Owners talk with the straightest faces. I am not sure what is in the water, but I refuse to drink it. I own property back in my home state and rent to members of my family. So far the values reflect moderate gains, but I certainly am not taking any trips to Rio if I sold tomorrow.
A couple in a neighborhood around the corner have a not-so-special house made of vinyl siding (which where I come from is found on the lowest of the low housing) for sale. The siding is falling off and warped, the backyard had all the topsoil scrapped off when the development was built so nothing planted grows. Cheap carpet, sinking foundations, bedrooms the size of postage stamps and guess what they are asking for their “lovely” 1900 sq. ft house? $695,000. It has been on the market since March, there have been many open house events, and still no “serious” offers according to the owners. If they had bought in 2003 – 2006, then I could understand their anxiety and desire to recover what they could from a foolish purchase, but they have been there since 1997. My guess is that they took out home equity loans (shame on the lenders) based on artificial hyper-inflated assessments. If so now they are in deep up to their eyeballs. I can’t imagine the people who would even seriously look at the house. In “normal” areas of the country this would be considered low-income housing.
Homeowners in the DC metro are some of the most deluded people I have ever met.

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-07-20 06:44:37

“Coal calling the kettle black”… or… “Man bites dog”

“…Greenspan told Congress that “personal bankruptcies are soaring because Americans have lost their sense of shame.”

Consumer Bankruptcy Rate Up in 3 States:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070720/consumers_bankruptcy.html?.v=4

Sir Greenspent is looking more & more like Bob Citron of the o.c. everyday, next thing you know he claim dementia

“Citron did not serve any time in prison.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Citron
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dementia

Comment by stealth4
2007-07-20 07:28:12

Greenspan has the nerve to say that?

That just shows the contempt the rich people in the U.S. have for the working class. They are mad that they gave people way to much credit than they could ever afford and now its a moral problem preventing them from paying on their loans?

greenspan is not at complete fault for all this, the American people who took the loans do deserve to share in the blame for taking on more than they could afford, but he started this mess. He needs to take some damn responsibility. What a bitter, repulsive old man.

Comment by BP
2007-07-20 07:49:56

I am not a huge fan of Greenspan but I think he has a point. Other than folks who went to bankruptcy due to health care related issues I haven’t seen the shame there should be.

Comment by sf jack
2007-07-20 07:58:38

Perhaps Greenspan doesn’t understand that people have less shame on financial matters today because he cheapened the dollar so significantly at the end of his time as Fed chair.

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Comment by tj & the bear
2007-07-20 20:26:18

Not to mention that the government keeps expanding social welfare programs while simultaneously working to alleviate any “stigma” associated with their use.

 
 
 
 
Comment by phillygal
2007-07-20 07:41:28

“personal bankruptcies are soaring because Americans have lost their sense of shame.”

This is ironic on so many levels I don’t even know where to begin.

Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 07:52:19

You mean like Burt Reynolds, Kim Basinger, Donald Trump, John Connally, and that partner at my old law firm worth $15M that we put into Ch. 11 to avoid personal guarantees on “can’t miss” RE developments in 1988?

Comment by jungle_man
2007-07-20 09:16:30

monied stars, starlets, blue-bloods, and power brokers dont feel shame….thats for the sheeple…

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Comment by FutureVulture
2007-07-20 09:40:21

This is ironic on so many levels I don’t even know where to begin.

Right on, phillygal. I thought this was fake news at first, which shows how far off the deep end this clown has gone. If anyone, anywhere, has lost his sense of shame it’s Greenspin. Now that he’s out of office, he can suddenly talk straight, spot formerly un-spottable asset bubbles, etc. I hope he dies soon.

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2007-07-20 08:16:09

“…Greenspan told Congress that “personal bankruptcies are soaring because Americans have lost their sense of shame.”

That’s right!! Congress has reeducated them to understand the word ‘entitlement plan’ and that Congress was their new ‘Daddy’. Plus, why should I feel shame if I can’t afford a $700K house on a $40K income and you’re dumb enough to give me the money? In that case I think I’d be out there laughing my ass off at your stupidity.

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-07-20 08:39:25

I’m along the same lines of thinking as you. There’s no shame in it because there is so much “free” money out there. And even after you declare bankruptcy, the free money keeps flowing. Case-in-point: I know a guy who filed for bankruptcy because he had too much debt. Shortly thereafter he went out and financed a brand new, roughly $25,000 car. What lesson did he learn? No shame in declaring bankruptcy. No change in lifestyle either.

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-07-20 10:02:51

there was a time when bankruptcy was regarded as shameful and was to be avoided at all costs.. but no more.
It was hard to bear the thought that you can’t control your own life.. can’t be trusted to repay a debt.. that your word and/or your signature is worthless.

Today, bankruptcy is acceptable, and is just another slick maneuver to lay your debts on someone else… a financial tool.

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2007-07-20 15:30:05

Actually I think you may be more apt to have bankruptcy if you are responsible and care about your debt. BK’s are up because of the housing market. You do not need a BK to get a foreclosure. My guess is the people having both are the ones who tried everything to keep the house instead of just handing it back to the bank the first time the loan adjusted beyond their ability to pay. And I think this will escalate.

I could be very wrong but I know if my last house had gone south (because I didn’t know what I was signing as I would today) I would have put all my resources into trying to pay off my debt as a matter of pride. I think there’s a lot of “entitled” people out there whose greed ruined their finances. But I also think a whole lot of decent, hard working people are going to get burned in this downturn and the best ones will suffer even more trying to avoid it.

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2007-07-20 15:31:22

And Greenspan can kiss my BWA. :P

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-07-20 17:40:53

What’s changed is people’s risk tolerance for the possibility of BK. There is no longer a stigma attached.

“If I do this and things go south, I’ll have to declare bankruptcy.”
Used to be ” Then don’t do it”
Today it’s more like “So what? Go for it.”

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Comment by krazy bill
2007-07-20 18:19:17

“And they became what they beheld.”
Airlines (among others) file for bk and screw the workers out of promised benefits and pensions; a promise to pay not unlike a credit card debt or mortgage.
Shareholder equity wiped out, CEO’s walk away with million$; but joe 6-pack should feel shame?
Joe 6-pack will pay on credit card debt for years if his income is above the median for his locale under the bk ‘reform’ enacted; but the corporations have a clean slate! That’s the shame.

Comment by Sally O'Maley
2007-07-20 22:27:58

GOOD POINT!!!!

 
 
 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-07-20 06:55:00

Kind of a shame — old time Washington institutions getting hammered by rising property taxes — in most cases, these places don’t make more money on operations, just because their real estate is valued more highly. This serves as a sort of low-strength/stealth eminent domain push to develop every property to highest and best economical use - losing some great neighborhood institutions in the process. In the case of Col. Brooks Tavern — that guy took a chance on a sketchy neighborhood to open a bar that was beloved my Brookland residents and nearby Catholic University students.

Feeling the Pinch Of D.C.’s Prosperity; Small Businesses Cry Out for Relief From Rapid Rise In Property Taxes

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/19/AR2007071902385.html?hpid=moreheadlines

Washington’s retail corridors have long been populated by homegrown businesses — quirky taverns and bookstores, groceries and eateries that are touchstones of neighborhood life.

Yet, as development surged across the city in recent years, the value of commercial properties jumped as much as 40 percent in some neighborhoods, and some merchants fear that they will be driven out by rising taxes and competition from national chains.

“It’s the downside of prosperity,” said D.C. Council member Jack Evans (D-Ward 2). At risk, he said, is “the fabric of our city and losing what makes us different than Pentagon City. You’re losing your local businesses that are unique to Washington and replacing them with Starbucks and the Gap and chain restaurants.”

In Brookland, Colonel Brooks’ Tavern, which opened in 1980, is a place where college students and residents drink beer in a room adorned with dark wood and framed photos of the 19th-century lawyer and landowner for whom the bar and neighborhood are named.

Jim Stiegman, the tavern’s owner, began assembling the 35,000-square-foot parcel in 1978. His assessment, he said, rose incrementally until 2003, when developers discovered Brookland.

The District that year valued his property at $485,000, resulting in a tax bill of about $9,000. Next year, the assessment is to rise to $2.3 million and the tax bill to more than $42,000. The increase, he said, is forcing him to contemplate selling, closing or redeveloping his property. “No matter what, you can’t charge $20 for a hamburger,” he said.

Adele Robey and her husband, Bruce, opened the H Street Playhouse in 2004 when the corridor east of Union Station was lined with vacant properties. Since then, nearly a dozen clubs and restaurants have moved in, and developers are building luxury housing.

In 2006, after the Robeys renovated their property, the District valued the theater at $514,000, and the assessment will top $1 million next year. Their tax payments, also doubled since 2006, will exceed $19,000 in 2008.

For all their angst, Stiegman and the Robeys can comfort themselves with the knowledge that they own their properties. Harry Schnipper, proprietor of Blues Alley, the venerable Georgetown jazz club, is not so fortunate.

Like many commercial leaseholders, Schnipper said he pays not only the rent but also the property taxes. In 2006, when the club, in an alley off Wisconsin Avenue NW, was assessed at $683,000, Schnipper’s tax bill was more than $12,600. In 2008, the bill will approach $20,000.

Schnipper said he is prepared to move Blues Alley, which has hosted the likes of Dizzy Gillespie and Sarah Vaughn, out of Washington if the assessment continues to rise. “These kinds of places define neighborhoods,” he said. “If you want to preserve the character and personality of a place, you’ve got to come up with a plan.”

Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-07-20 10:12:55

“..got to come up with a plan..”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prop_13

Comment by not a gator
2007-07-20 11:04:55

Millage rates?!?

Of course, DC is in terrible shape w/r/t revenue because they do not have the authority to assess income taxes. All of that revenue goes to MD and VA. In return, they get a pitiful “free gift” every year from Congress courtesy of all 50 states.

Unfair? Hells, yeah.

Comment by Skip
2007-07-20 12:43:14

Well, its not like they are actually a state or anything. They should be glad we let them vote for President every 4 years.

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-07-20 15:20:39

if we let them be a state, ya just know they’re gonna vote Marion Barry back in.. this time as governor.

 
 
 
Comment by tj & the bear
2007-07-20 20:29:09

Rephrase that to “…got to come up with a fair plan…”

 
 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-07-20 07:12:14

The Keynesian theorists used the wrong word…should have been: ”inconceivable” ;-)

Five Things You Need to Know About Stagflation

In simplest terms, stagflation is inflation + recession… at the same time!

* “Impossible,” said Keynesian theorists, who in the 1970s comprised the dominant force in economic theory and practice.
* According to Keynes, recessions are solved by one thing: inflation. But what solves inflation, according to Keynes? One thing: recession.

http://biz.yahoo.com/minyanville/070719/20070719stagflation_id.html?.v=2

Comment by not a gator
2007-07-20 11:06:41

The true Keynesian welcomes stagflation … Keynes despises the “rentier” class and wished to exterminate them.

Here’s looking at you, HBBers.

What we have now is worse–inflation plus recession PLUS stagnant wages. Instead of eliminating the rentiers we are eliminating the middle class.

Just watch those violent crime levels rise.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 12:27:00

Damn Keynes. Who says dead men tell no tales. I cannot wait until the Kondratief tsunami wave lays to rest seventy years of Keynesian macroeconomic policy.

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 07:15:43

DJIA 14,000 was sure a short kiss… Any bets on when the bulls will regroup (and whether the time interval would best be measured in days, months or years)?

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 07:22:37

Is this a factor in the bear scare on Wall Street today?

China boosts rates to cool ’surging’ economy
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:35 AM ET Jul 20, 2007

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China moved to cool the economy late Friday with a 0.27 percentage-point hike in interest rates just a day after scorching GDP data showed the nation on track for its fastest annual growth in more than a decade.
In a statement published on its Web site, the People’s Bank of China said it will raise the one-year yuan lending rate to 6.84% from 6.57%, effective Saturday. The one-year deposit rate will rise to 3.33% from 3.06%.

It’s the fifth time since April 2006 that China’s central bank has lifted the benchmark lending rate.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-lifts-interest-rates-cool/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F8BF1EB%2DF086%2D482F%2DBBF4%2D3078486DEEC1%7D

Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 08:22:18

What the article fails to mention and is real important is that China lowered its tax rates from 20% to 5% on interest income, but investment profits in the stock market are still taxed at 15%.

“China’s State Council announced Friday to reduce the tax on interest income from 20 to 5 percent as of August 15.”
China Daily
http://tinyurl.com/yph8×7

 
Comment by pb_2_au
2007-07-20 10:10:59

Yen making solid gains today. Carry unwind: not if but when.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 07:26:59

Another flight-to-quality move is underway early today… Look for a bad day today, and a major PPT-initiated “all is well” upswing on Monday. Because after a long weekend, Monday is a prime candidate day for a major blowout to the downside, and that would be ba-a-ad.

Price Change Percentage
—— ——- ————
Gold future 682.90 +4.80 +0.71%
30-Year Bond 5.04% -0.07 -1.45%
10-Year Bond 4.93% -0.10 -1.89%

10:22am EST

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 07:34:43

Does the DJIA always take a “breather” at or near 100 pts down on selloff days? What is magical about 100 pts, in a market valued at 14,000?

Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 07:37:52

It’s time of day rather than number of points.

Mkt gaps up or down, pulls back from first move at 9 a.m. CST. You see the low (or high) of the countertrend move around 9:30 - 10

Then you see what’s “really” going to happen. For today, I think we’ve got a trend day down coming and could close at the LOD.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 08:05:36

Predictable trends are a puzzlement to anyone familiar with the efficient market theory, as they appear to offer a persistently unexploited arbitrage opportunity.

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Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 09:29:22

there is no arbitrage opportunity that is exploited that I know of. I used to arbitrage 10ths of a penny on blocks of SIRI a couple of years ago.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 07:26:49

I’m covering half my Blackstone short and lowering the stop on the rest. It’s down another 3%. Guess I can eat this weekend ;) Hoz, you still on that one too?

Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 08:46:11

Nope, closed out on the Tuesday after initial opening. My motto ‘never get greedy’. Not my normal type of trade, no reasonable way for me to evaluate my risk. On this transaction, I trusted my instincts based on what I have seen in the past. e.g. If I anticipate a 12% return over 6 months and it happens over 1 month - I liquidate. And look for the next opportunity. In BX’s case - a 17% profit in 5 days.

This is the first summer (in decades) where the prices are so out of skew that it justifies work.

Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 09:28:29

Work? I haven’t worked all summer. But geting interested now!

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 13:19:11

All out now. That was nice.

Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 14:28:23

Buy me a drink, TxChick?

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Comment by txchick57
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 08:03:38

Wince!

 
Comment by Hixson Rick
2007-07-20 08:12:59

Russian Tu-95 & 160 vs F-16, Ha!……The Russkies better try missles!

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 08:25:15

They are just playing a signaling game at this point.

 
 
 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-07-20 08:07:26

USD hitting all time low!! DX touches 80.13!!!

Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-07-20 08:12:31

Actually not sure if its an all time low. Kissed 80.12 and bounced back.

Comment by watcher
2007-07-20 08:24:16

Kitco is showing it at 79.99 now. Days like today are why I buy PMs. This is big.

Comment by stealth4
2007-07-20 09:08:28

PM = ?

Thanks

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Comment by jungle_man
2007-07-20 09:26:05

the precious……gold, silver, platinum

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 09:41:44

Don’t forget scrap metal — quite precious when inflation is running amok…

Council to vote on scrap metal law Monday
Thursday, July 19, 2007
SUE HAGAN
ThisWeek Staff Writer

Columbus neighborhoods could see relief from thieves looking to pilfer copper downspouts, catalytic convertors and even air conditioners.

Legislation that would license and regulate scrap metal dealers likely will be approved by Columbus City Council July 23. A first reading was held on Monday.

At a public hearing last week hosted by council member Andrew Ginther, residents and city safety officials were among those who said council should not wait for a proposed statewide law to wind its way through the legislative process.

Quick passage is important, they said, citing cost and safety issues resulting from the thefts of aluminum siding, copper downspouts, copper wiring, catalytic converters and other metal, which thieves sell for a quick buck at local scrap yards.

http://www.thisweeknews.com/?story=sites/thisweeknews/071907/GermanVillage/News/071907-News-387195.html&sec=home&tab=tab1

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 20:51:21

Next Fed-blown bubble: Scrap metal???

 
 
Comment by FutureVulture
2007-07-20 10:01:18

I think the Kitco graph is showing futures, not the cash index, so it’s a little different.

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Comment by SD_suntaxed
2007-07-20 08:09:49

Repost from last night.

Don’t worry, be happy.

Here’s some more stuccoed sunshine in another newish subdivision in Temecula/Murietta. Yes, the new houses out there really are that close together.

Link to video file. Credit to hipmatt from the Piggington forums.

Quicktime required - larger size
http://dcrin3.com/a1/haveston2.mov

Youtube -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-82iJIzZKI

Comment by desmo
2007-07-20 10:18:13

There are so many houses for sale, rent, reo, etc. that in future videos he will have to use Iron Butterfly’s “Inagodadavida” so the music lasts the entire video.

 
 
Comment by ange
2007-07-20 08:11:03

Mortgages
My mortgage loan officer wife tells me that they are losing some business to Countrywide. I haven’t checked out whether it is true, but apparently, Countrywide is offering completely cost free mortgages and paying for owners title insurance here in the DC area to qualified folks. My questions are: What’s their position in the subprime or alt-A arena? How would the actions they are taking (if verified) to attract clients affect their overall portfolio? This obviously suggests that short term profits are being traded off to guard their long term holdings. I think I’m on to something, but don’t have the background to piece things together. Anybody wanna offer an opinion?

Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 14:47:15

Hi Ange:

This isn’t an opinion, but didn’t Counrywide just recently swear off most of their subprime products? I guess they’re just scrambling for some kind of business now.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2007-07-20 08:22:33

The Dollar index is now trading under 80. If it closes there this will be a hugely significant development. Got gold?

Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2007-07-20 10:11:21

Just bought a few more ounces of gold on Tuesday. Next question?

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 08:26:14

MTC Technologies Inc.
Dayton, OH
Defense contractor MTC Technologies Inc., looking to cut its operating expenses after starting the year with sluggish earnings, said Wednesday it will reduce its work force as part of a consolidation intended to improve efficiency. MTC will eliminate nine administrative support jobs from its Dayton work force of approximately 380 people. MTC employs about 3,000 people in more than 40 locations. The company provides aircraft modernization, professional and logistics services including systems engineering, information technology and intelligence to the Defense Department.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50

AB Volvo
Gothenburg, Sweden
Macungie, PA
Hagerstown, MD
Heavy truck-maker AB Volvo has stated that it has not had to lay off as many people in two of its U.S. facilities as it had originally anticipated. In October, the company forecast that it would cut 450 of 1,040 jobs at its Macungie (Pennsylvania) truck assembly plant, and 600 of 1,770 jobs at its Hagerstown (Maryland) engine and transmission plant. According to Automotive News, a Volvo spokesperson has said that Volvo has only had to cut 340 jobs at Macungie and the same number at Hagerstown.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 501-1000
Source: Global Insight - July 19, 2007

HIG Private Equity
Miami, FL
Tampa, FL
Stream, a Dallas-based company that handles the tech support phone calls for hardware and software companies around the globe, is laying off 230 workers in Tampa but will retain 400 other employees here. The company needed to cut the positions because it had lost a client. Stream is owned by Miami-based HIG Private Equity. The company has 15,000 employees at 26 centers in 16 countries.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Tampa Tribune - July 19, 2007

Teletech Holdings Inc.
Englewood, CO
London, ON
A downtown London call centre is restructuring and laid off about 20 people yesterday. Colorado-based Teletech Holdings Inc., which has a Galleria London call centre, laid off less than three per cent of its workforce as part of an efficiency, empowerment and excellence restructuring, a company spokesperson said. She couldn’t specify how many people work at the centre or exactly how many were being cut. Previously-reported figures had put Teletech’s London employees at about 1,000.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: London Free Press - July 13, 2007

Valley View Fitness Center
La Crosse, WI
Both the Valley View Fitness Centers will close on July 31, the owner said. The owner, who declined to say why his two centers are closing, said about 60 employees will be laid off because of the shutdowns. He said membership agreements have been purchased by La Crosse/Onalaska Fitness.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 51-100
Source: La Crosse Tribune - July 15, 2007

Pacific Gas and Electric Company
San Francisco, CA
San Luis Obispo, CA
Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant will shed possibly hundreds of workers in the next two to three years as Pacific Gas and Electric Co. brings the facility in line with industry staffing levels. Exact numbers, job descriptions and dates of the staff reduction have not been determined. But the utility has told its Diablo Canyon employees it will begin this quarter to identify jobs to cut, with the cuts beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. A plant spokesman said Wednesday the employees were told PG&E is reducing the facility’s work force to achieve greater efficiency. Diablo Canyon has more than 1,400 employees, compared with about 1,000 at other large, two-reactor plants nationwide.
Approximate Affected Workforce: N/A
Source: The San Luis Obispo Tribune - July 19, 2007

Crown Bank FSB
Casselberry, FL
Orlando, FL
R-G Crown Bank slashed 90 jobs in Metro Orlando this week as part of a cost-cutting campaign tied to its pending buyout by Fifth Third Bank, company officials confirmed Friday. Casselberry-based R-G Crown laid off a variety of back-office employees, including information-technology, administrative and operations workers, in an effort to eliminate overlap with Fifth Third, bank officials said. Workers were notified Thursday of the layoffs, which are to take effect Nov. 2. The bank cut nearly half its headquarters and back-office staff in Central Florida.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 51-100
Source: Orlando Sentinel - July 14, 2007

PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
Pittsburgh, PA
Baltimore, MD
Frederick, MD
PNC Financial Services Group will eliminate 450 local jobs in the coming months as it integrates the operations it acquired from Mercantile Bankshares Corp. PNC, which closed on the Mercantile deal in February, began notifying hundreds of employees in recent weeks about the job eliminations. PNC will eliminate 323 jobs as it consolidates Mercantile’s former Anne Arundel County operations into a single facility at BWI Technology Park in Linthicum, a spokesman said in an interview last week. The bank will also eliminate 80 jobs, primarily administrative positions, at its 2 Hopkins Plaza headquarters downtown. And PNC will cut 51 administrative and back-office jobs at Mercantile affiliate Farmers & Mechanics Bank in Frederick. Mercantile was Greater Baltimore’s largest independently owned bank before the PNC deal, with local roots dating back to the late 19th century.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Baltimore Business Journal - July 16, 2007

Washington Mutual Inc.
Seattle, WA
Dublin, CA
Itasca, IL
Washington Mutual Inc., the nation’s largest savings and loan, has laid off hundreds of employees in several offices that process home loans for borrowers with shaky credit. The Seattle-based thrift told about 210 employees at two subprime loan fulfillment centers in June that the company was eliminating their jobs and closing down those offices in Dublin, Calif., east of San Francisco and Itasca, Ill., northwest of Chicago, a Washington Mutual spokeswoman said Wednesday. Most of those workers will be gone by Aug. 1. Earlier this year, the company cut about 250 jobs in four other offices that support its subprime lending business. Like many other lenders nationwide, Washington Mutual has been scaling back its subprime business, which has suffered steep losses amid a rising number of delinquencies and defaults. Washington Mutual has about 50,000 employees in its branches and support offices nationwide.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Associated Press State & Local Wire - July 20, 2007

Maple Leaf Foods Inc.
Toronto, ON
Winnipeg, MB
Maple Leaf Foods Inc., Canada’s largest food processor, plans to close a Winnipeg pork-processing plant which employs about 145 workers as the company sheds underperforming assets. The plant processes 15,000 to 20,000 hogs a week and will start closing in early September, Toronto-based Maple Leaf Foods said Wednesday in a statement. The plant will be shut by Oct. 26. Maple Leaf will consolidate pork-processing in Brandon, Man., where it will start a second shift and boost employment to 2,800. Maple Leaf is the maker of Shopsy’s delicatessen meats and Dempster’s breads.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Edmonton Journal - July 19, 2007

Swift & Company
Greeley, CO
The announcement of Swift & Co.’s sale to a Brazilian company this week came with repercussions for Swift employees in Greeley: layoffs. The same day Latin America’s largest beef processor, JBS SA, finalized the $1.5 billion dollar deal to acquire Swift, the company handed pink slips to roughly 20-40 employees. Many employees from marketing, public relations and several vice presidents and their assistants were let go.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: Greeley Tribune - July 14, 2007

pg 1 of 3

Comment by In Colorado
2007-07-20 13:29:10

“Many employees from marketing, public relations and several vice presidents and their assistants were let go.”

Its nice to see that not only are the little people hurt by globalization!

Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 14:52:11

That’s what I’ve been screaming! I’ve been trying to tell people that, eventually, it will be everyone. This is a bottoms-up economy, yo. Mabe a few eyebrows will be lifted now. Especially with Democrats in Congress and (soon) the White House.

 
Comment by tj & the bear
2007-07-20 20:58:58

Wow, that’s gonna hurt! 20-40 may not sound like much, but it’s not like those kind of jobs are everywhere in Greeley.

 
 
 
Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 08:29:58

HIGH TECHNOLOGY

Cyberonics, Inc.
Houston, TX
Cyberonics, Inc. announced that it has implemented an organizational restructuring designed to enhance efficiency and reduce the cost of ongoing operations. The restructuring has resulted in approximately a 15% reduction in employee headcount. The approximately $1.3 million in costs associated with the reductions will be accounted for in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007, which ended Friday, April 27, 2007. The workforce reductions are expected to result in direct annual savings exceeding $12 million beginning in fiscal 2008.
Approximate Affected Workforce: N/A
Source: Biotech Business Week - July 16, 2007

Electronic Data Systems Corporation
Plano, TX
Federal Way, WA
Electronic Data Systems is laying off 147 employees in its office in Federal Way, the company confirmed Friday. The cutback came after one of EDS’ clients divided a contract among multiple vendors. A spokeswoman for the IT-outsourcing company based in Plano, Texas, declined to name the client but said the scope of EDS’ piece of the contract has been “significantly reduced.” EDS and its subsidiaries have about 131,000 employees globally.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Seattle Times - July 14, 2007

WorkshopLive
Pittsfield, MA
WorkshopLive, the online music lesson resource that was founded here in 2005, has laid off nine workers as it transitions from online content production to marketing its product. According to the president and CEO of the firm, with more than 2,500 music lessons in the catalogue, it was time to put more emphasis on selling the product. To that end, a new chief marketing officer will be hired, and the marketing staff expanded by another one or two positions. Laid off were programmers, videographers, animators and curriculum developers. WorkshopLive sells music lessons by subscription. They sell lessons in acoustic and electric guitar, electric bass guitar, piano, and drums. Each music lesson includes video of a musician/instructor teaching online students the steps of playing a song. It also includes animation showing the fingering diagrams and the musical score. The student has the ability to slow down the lesson, pause it and replay it repeatedly. These lessons are available to the user online 24 hours every day.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: The Berkshire Eagle - July 13, 2007

Chesapeake Corporation
Richmond, VA
Chesapeake Corp., a supplier of specialty paperboard and plastic packaging, said Wednesday it will cut jobs and realign its structure to foster growth and reduce costs. Chesapeake will now have three operating units pharmaceutical and health care packaging, branded products packaging and plastic packaging with each division director reporting to the chief executive. Chesapeake will cut an undisclosed number of jobs, as it consolidates corporate staff functions in the United States and Europe.
Approximate Affected Workforce: N/A
Source: The Associated Press - July 18, 2007

Collins & Aikman Corporation
Southfield, MI
Rantoul, IL
Automotive interior components manufacturer Collins & Aikman Corporation has announced plans to close three plants in Rantoul, Illinois, by the end of August unless they are acquired by potential buyers. The plants to be shut down, which manufacture auto trim such as consoles and door panels, will result in 475 people being laid off. The company’s executive vice president for human resources, said: “The plant closing and layoffs will be permanent.”
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Datamonitor NewsWire - July 18, 2007

Delta Apparel Inc.
Duluth, GA
Fayette, AL
Delta Apparel, Inc will close its manufacturing facility in Fayette, Alabama. This reorganization is expected to occur in the Company’s fiscal first quarter of 2008, leaving the Company with two U.S. textile operations, one located in Maiden, North Carolina and the other in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Approximately 110 U.S. jobs will be eliminated by the manufacturing restructuring.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Midnight Trader - July 18, 2007

Engel Canada Inc.
Guelph, ON
Twenty-nine employees were laid off this week at Engel Canada Inc.’s injection moulding plant in Guelph. The company’s executive vice-president of operations said yesterday the downsizing was part of a newly developed three-year business plan to improve operations. There are now 287 employees at the plant. The job cuts involved positions in the office as well as the plant. The company manufactures robotics, automation and injection-moulding machinery for other industries, particularly makers of plastic goods. Currently, the plant imports its products from Austria or Korea.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: Guelph Mercury - July 14, 200

Erie Oem Inc.
Erie, PA
A local plastics company is shutting down, eliminating 150 jobs in an already economically depressed part of the state, company officials said. Erie Oem Inc., a plastics industry leader that specializes in parts for the auto industry, has transferred its work to Plastech Engineered Products in Detroit.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Associated Press State & Local Wire - July 18, 2007

mperial Chemical Industries, PLC
London, UK
Reading, PA
ICI Paints announced Wednesday it was closing its Reading manufacturing plant by the end of September and eliminating about 100 jobs. An adjacent distribution facility that employs about 50 will remain open. ICI Paints, a division of Imperial Chemical Industries, London, released a study last month recommending the closing of the plant. An ICI news release on the closing cited physical limitations and high maintenance costs at the plant and the reduced nationwide demand for paint which can be filled at other, more modern plants.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 51-100
Source: Reading Eagle - July 19, 2007

Longaberger Company
Newark, OH
Newark-based Longaberger, a manufacturer of baskets and other home products, announced Thursday it plans to cut 113 salaried, professional positions at its headquarters in an effort to implement its latest growth plan. The Vice President sad that by streamlining, we will lower our cost base and narrow our focus to those initiatives that lead to sustainable growth. After cutting the 113 positions, Longaberger estimates it will have about 3,000 employees.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Columbus Business First - July 13, 2007

UPM Miramichi Inc.
Miramichi, NB
UPM sent notification letters to 620 employees, 99 of whom were staff and 521 were unionized employees. The company is blaming an over supply of light weight coated paper on the international market, the product UPM Miramichi makes, for the shut down. Some mills are pumping out great production and overcapacity on the market is driving the price down. UPM Miramichi announced its nine- to 12-month closures of their paper and groundwood mills last month. Now, the August 26th closure date has been formalized. However, 50 people made up of unionized workers from both mills and staff will stay on. They will maintain the mill facilities and participate in a strategic planning team for the future of the Miramichi mills.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 501-1000
Source: The Times & Transcript - July 17, 2007

Whirlpool Corporation
Benton Harbor, MI
Milan, TN
Whirlpool Corp. is closing a Maytag parts distribution center, putting 140 employees out of work. The cuts are part of a business consolidation strategy after Whirlpool bought Maytag last year. The distribution center in Milan, a town about 20 miles north of Jackson, will close early next year, a spokeswoman said Wednesday.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: Knoxville News-Sentinel - July 19, 2007

MediaNews Group Inc.
Denver, CO
St. Paul, MN
The St. Paul Pioneer Press is pressing for another round of staff buyouts in the face of a rough financial picture, the paper said. The latest round of cuts will target 30 jobs, 15 of them from the newsroom. An earlier buyout effort, held late last year, reduced the staff by about 40 people.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: The Business Journal - July 17, 2007

pg 2 of 3

 
Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 08:34:36

PlanetOut Inc.
San Francisco, CA
PlanetOut Inc., publisher of Out magazine and the Gay.com website, plans to cut about 15% of its workforce in a restructuring to reduce costs. Severance payments will cost as much as $600,000, and closing offices in Buenos Aires and London will require as much as $100,000, the San Francisco company said in a regulatory filing.
Approximate Affected Workforce: N/A
Source: Los Angeles Times - July 18, 2007

The McClatchy Company
Sacramento, CA
Fresno, CA
The Fresno Bee will cut seven of 31 jobs in its advertising design department as it outsources advertising work to India, newspaper reports said Wednesday. The Associated Press said the Fresno paper, part of The McClatchy Co., will send the advertising production work to Express KCS, which has offices in San Jose, London and New Dehli, India. The job cuts will begin in September, the AP reported.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 1-50
Source: Sacramento Business Journal - July 18, 2007

Johnson & Johnson
New Brunswick, NJ
Lititz, PA
Johnson & Johnson’s McNeil-PPC subsidiary plans to make production changes and begin cutting up to 340 jobs starting in September at its Lititz manufacturing and distribution facilities. The job cuts will be completed in about two years in an effort to improve efficiency and competitiveness, a McNeil spokesman, said Wednesday. The facilities currently employ about 800. Among the changes, production of Lubriderm moisturizing lotion and manufacture of Listerine antiseptic products for export will be moved from Lititz to other J&J facilities, while production of Listerine Whitening Pre-Brush Rinse, Bengay and Desitin will be moved from Parsippany, N.J., to Lititz. A workforce of 140 at the Lititz Logistics Center that formerly distributed Pfizer products to retail stores will be cut by more than half.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 101-500
Source: The Associated Press State & Local Wire - July 19, 2007

Avon Products Inc.
New York, NY
Avon Products Inc., which sells beauty products, said Monday it will cut jobs and take $5 million in charges as part of a restructuring effort, according to a regulatory filing. Avon said it would terminate an undisclosed number of employees and outsource some services, a move expected to be completed by the end of 2008.
Approximate Affected Workforce: N/A
Source: AFX International Focus - July 16, 2007

American Airlines Inc.
Fort Worth, TX
Bangor, ME
American Airlines announced Tuesday that it will terminate its regional jet service at Bangor in early November, citing financial reasons for the pullout. American Eagle, the regional American Airlines affiliate, will discontinue its routes from Bangor International Airport to Boston’s Logan International Airport and La Guardia International Airport in New York City, beginning Nov. 5. The departure means BIA will lose its third-largest carrier and 89 American Eagle employees. The airline will close its station in the airport terminal, which employs 15 people, and its maintenance base that employs 74.
Approximate Affected Workforce: 51-100
Source: Bangor Daily News - July 18, 2007

Southwest Airlines Company
Dallas, TX
Southwest Airlines Co. is offering buyouts to about one-fourth of its employees in an effort to cut costs as the discount carrier heads into a period of expected slower growth. Southwest said yesterday it is offering $25,000 in cash plus health and dental benefits to 8,700 flight attendants, baggage handlers and other employees. The offer wasn’t extended to pilots and mechanics. The workers have until Aug. 10 to accept the offers, which began showing up in their mailboxes Monday, said a Southwest spokeswoman.
Approximate Affected Workforce: over 1000
Source: The Globe and Mail - July 18, 2007

I omitted Health, Government and Education and posting that had been placed by others earlier.

“God’s in his heaven and all is right in the world”

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 09:32:10

Did you omit new hires? A one-sided approach which solely reports job losses only tells half of the story.

Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2007-07-20 10:16:37

Exactly. These posts are cherry-picking examples. I got a car, I rent, I am willing to relocate anywhere in the U.S. within a week if I lose my job. No big deal for me. Welcome to the information age where you gotta compete in this world instead of be a frog on a log waiting for a fly to come by.

Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 10:36:17

What you fail to realize is that 70% of these people laid off OWN HOUSES and most have mortgages. Who is going to buy their house? They cannot jump in a car and look for a job cross country. Once in Florida stuck in Florida.

Yes it is cherry picking, just like the governments employment projections cherry pick. The difference is that these are actual reported layoffs and the government figures are guesstimates. 25,000 new construction hires last month, for example.

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Comment by Chrisusc
2007-07-20 12:25:08

GS and Bill, I agree that this is only one part of the story, but in some cases, like the newspaper outsourcing advertising design to India, these jobs are probably lost. So while you (Bill) have a mil in the bank, most people dont, so what do they do now. I think that was more Hoz’s point. This is more of an indication that things are slowing, which we already knew. And that the shite is hitting the fan…I mean what are the workers at Gay.com going to do know…

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Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2007-07-20 12:38:52

I see your points, Crhis and Hoz. Thanks!

 
 
 
 
Comment by ajas
2007-07-20 10:38:14

IndyMac, haha. Our fine monolithic purveyor of the Alt-A surprise is trimming 400 this morning.

*poof*. Good thing, as a BusinessWeek article pointed out yesterday “Here’s the good news: the mortgage lender handles hardly any subprime loans.”

Hmmmmmm…

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-07-20 12:20:31

I dodged a bullet there. At one time I almost went to work for them…

 
 
Comment by lost in utah
2007-07-20 16:28:12

Once again, thanks, Hoz, for your fine work.

 
 
2007-07-20 08:37:45

A challenge to the bubble babblers

http://tinyurl.com/2jpopr

 
Comment by WAman
2007-07-20 08:39:25

Have you folks seen gas prices drop in the past few weeks? I wonder if that is because the summer drive season has not started and will not start. I have been getting emails from BestWestern and Choice Inns trying to get me to make reservations. McDonalds same store sales up 5%.

Has mom and dad traded the summer vacation for a couple of happy meals?

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-07-20 08:58:17

“Happy Meals” …are $1.50 at the local Mickey’s Dees on Sunday from 3-6 pm…I donate the toy to a local Chinese thrift. ;-)

 
Comment by ragerunner
2007-07-20 10:59:10

Honestly,
I think someone is finally putting ‘real’ pressure on the oil companies to keep prices under $3.00 national. The FEDs and a lot of other very important people know the economy can’t take much more. It will be interesting to see if the oil companies show a decrease in revenue and how they explain the drop. I say they will relate the drop to infrastructure costs. The pressure on the economy is really starting to build.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-20 08:43:43

Excellence white paper ahoy!

http://www.weissgroupinc.com/whitepaper1/

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-07-20 08:44:23

Whoops! The first word in previous post should have been “Excellent.”

My bad.

Comment by tj & the bear
2007-07-20 21:03:51

Actually had a nice “Bill & Ted’s” feel to it. :-)

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 09:30:32

Rather than acting as a moderating force, the Federal Reserve often played an important role in further inflating the housing bubble.

In the early 2000s, the Fed drove real interest rates into negative territory, erasing the real returns on a wide variety of savings instruments relied upon for income by millions of Americans and encouraging them to shift resources to real estate speculation. At the same time, it drove down the real cost of borrowing and encouraged imprudent risk-taking.

The Fed replaced one bubble, mostly confined to the technology sector, with another, far larger bubble, encompassing most of the housing market. And consequently, homes became unaffordable to most Americans, as the housing affordability index compiled by the National Association of Realtors dropped to its lowest level on record.

By 2004, it was nearly impossible to ignore that the housing market was overheating, as home prices rose at the fastest rates in decades and by more than four-and-a-half times as quickly as inflation. Yet the Federal Reserve did not believe it should play a forceful role in stemming this mania via monetary policy.

Although setting monetary policy is a complex process, we believe that, in the face of a potentially dangerous speculative mania in housing, policymakers at the Federal Reserve failed to recognize the evidence, failed to send clear signals to market participants, and failed to lean against the inflating asset bubble.

Comment by sf jack
2007-07-20 09:46:29

“In the early 2000s, the Fed drove real interest rates into negative territory… [and] drove down the real cost of borrowing and encouraged imprudent risk-taking.”

“By 2004, it was nearly impossible to ignore that the housing market was overheating…”

“… policymakers at the Federal Reserve failed to recognize the evidence..”

*******

Failed to recognize? Or, chose not to recognize?

Many thanks for all of this to Alan Greenspan and the “Do Nothing” Fed!

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2007-07-20 08:52:34

Per Bloomberg, Treasury interest rates down on subprime debacle.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap99LcvWPvwA&refer=home

Could we have falling rates for Treasuries and rising rates for mortgages?

Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-07-20 09:05:35

Don’t forget that hedgies “hedge” their long subprime/rmbs positions by shorting treasuries!! DX also getting hit hard so liquidity from carry trades may get cut off also! Go bears!!

 
 
Comment by GPBlank
 
Comment by AmazedRenter
2007-07-20 09:33:03

Comments on housing by St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole added to concerns. Poole said the nonprime mortgage market was big enough to affect home building activity and consumer spending.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2037348320070720?rpc=44&pageNumber=2

Comment by GetStucco
2007-07-20 09:42:49

“…nonprime mortgage market was big enough to affect home building activity and consumer spending…”

What a shocking revelation!

 
 
Comment by OB_Tom
2007-07-20 09:45:21

What’s going on? Are BB’s printing presses shut down for maintenance?
DOW down 163 and gold at 684 without the usual noon-NY-time intervention?

Comment by txchick57
2007-07-20 10:05:41

you’ll see intervention when the indices approach the 50 dma and the 200 dma, then at 10K Dow.

Comment by Sally O'Maley
2007-07-20 22:48:45

DMA = direct market access?

Comment by ajas
2007-07-20 23:35:22

Daily Moving Average.

I think Tx is predicting the individual steps the little rubber ball will bounce off of on the way down the staircase.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by ajas
2007-07-20 10:41:02

Busy buying 10yr. 4.94, Wow.
Diversification is the key to any portfolio.

 
 
Comment by Liz from Boston
2007-07-20 10:51:31

Did anyone else see this Forbes article? Apparently, high housing prices are pushing people out of major cities.

 
Comment by taxpayer2
2007-07-20 10:52:26

Would someone please monitor the Real Estate columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer? He recently wrote that there was no foreclosure issue, that it was a result of some applications being counted twice! And he claimed in a separate article that the ‘bubble’ talk was exaggerated.
Now, the Inquirer is owned by folks who made their fortune in real estate, so maybe there is a bias…

Comment by Big V
2007-07-20 15:03:58

Taxpayer2:

Do you realize that you are unpatriotically questioning the dogma of affluence as set by our leader George W. Bushie and God himself? Shame on you. If THEY say the applications were counted twice, then they were counted twice.

Next?

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 11:46:24

Fifty-seven percent of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index cut the number of shares outstanding last year by buying back stock for their treasuries, according to an S&P study released yesterday.

and from
reuters
U.S. credit derivative indexes backed by corporate debt reached record wides on Friday on investor nervousness about weakness in residential home loans and some disappointing company earnings.
…”That we are so quiet on the new issue front is one manifestation of the current unstable market conditions,” Marrinan said. “Any issuer which has the financial flexibility to postpone a debt raising probably will choose to do so at least until some semblance of secondary market stability has been restored.”

and from
Financial news online US

“…Global M&A volume was a record $4.06 trillion (€2.9 trillion) last year, and deals in the first half of this year reached $2.88 trillion, a 55% year-on-year increase, according to Dealogic, the investment banking research provider.

The ACG/Thomson Financial DealMakers survey last month polled 1,011 investment bankers, private equity professionals, corporate development officers, as well as lawyers and accountants.

Nearly all, or 93% of respondents, said deal conditions would remain good or excellent until the end of this year. However 68% of private equity professionals, who accounted for nearly a quarter of global M&A volume, said debt markets will be worse in the next year.”

The corporate credit markets are wobbling.

 
Comment by Moman
2007-07-20 12:51:07

I want peoples’ opinions on good financial magazines. Here’s the ones I get.
1. Business Week - subscribed for 11 years, but seems like it’s degenerating into a cross between Economist and US Weekly. Articles are sensationalized and magazine is about 1/2 the content of 4 years ago. Considering dropping.

2. Newsweek - only good for some articles, too many articles on religion.

3. Economist - subscribed to follow on housing bubble, but it’s like getting a book in the mail each week and I don’t have time to read it all. Plan to keep though.

Any magazines you would replace with the ones I have listed above?

Comment by NYCresident
2007-07-20 14:15:20

For the small investor, SmartMoney and Kipplinger’s
For business news and investment Forbes
For a new perspective: Portfolio, a high quality start-up which issued a premier issue in April and commences monthy publication next month

 
Comment by Remain calm. All is well
2007-07-20 14:26:45

I’d get rid of all except the Economist. By the time something gets printed in them, it’s old news on blogs and subscription newsletters. The housing bust is the best example. The mainstream magazines except Economist were going ga-ga over houses at the moment of the exact top of the RE market.

Even WSJ is a cheerleader rag, though you get to see more details than simplistic writeups in Newseek etc. For example, how many places have you seen that ol’ Credit Suisse reset chart, and how many places have you read about the neg-am RECAST?

(formerly PDXrenter)

 
Comment by Hoz
2007-07-20 16:12:05

Keep economist

add

Oxford-Analytica

or just get Oxford Analytica

 
Comment by technovelist
2007-07-20 21:17:23

Forget magazines. Subscribe to ft.com. That covers world business and other news like a blanket.

 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2007-07-20 12:56:27

This is an awesome CL post :

http://tinyurl.com/2r2dlp

Holy crap, is this ‘investor’ guy screwed! He’s bleeding over 3k a month!

 
Comment by bradthemod
2007-07-20 23:16:32

Great News! Your right to protest is being outlawed:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/07/20070717-3.html

Comment by Former FB
2007-07-21 08:38:28

When protests are outlawed only outlaws will have protests.

 
 
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