Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Regulation changes? “On Tuesday, a group of banking regulators agreed to extend new guidelines for federal mortgage brokers to ones charted on the state level, where many experts say the riskiest loans come from. In Passaic County, foreclosures are projected to rise by 22 percent this year, an analysis of county Sheriff’s Department statistics shows.”
“Melissa Totaro, a West Orange lawyer who previously worked for the Passaic County Legal Aid Society said that any measure helps. ‘It’s too late for people who are in foreclosure,’ she said. ‘It’s not too late to stop this craziness and help people in the future.’”
Neighborhood foreclosures? “Neighbors have been eyeing the shoulder-high weeds at a vacant Kennewick house for months. Laura Roberson lives right next door. She remembers how nice the house was when people used to live there. ‘This wasn’t our neighborhood less than two years ago. It’s just gone down hill and gone down hill,’ said Roberson.”
“Kennewick code enforcement officer Patsy Osborn wishes there was an easy fix. She says forclosures are her biggest hassle.”
Market statistics? “The number of homes sold in the Lehigh Valley continued to fall last month, as average home prices dipped slightly and the time homes sat on the market lengthened.”
“Home sales fell last year for the first time in at least 10 years. Simultaneously, the number of new listings set a record.”
“So far this year, those trends have held: as home sales have fallen, new listings have soared. The healthy stock of homes for sale has been a boon for prospective buyers who have more choices. But for sellers, the competition has proven a nuisance.”
Industry issues? “Walk into the mustard-and-Similac-stained office of any Realtor in Southern California and ask the following question: ‘The newspapers keep telling me the real estate market is dropping like a rotten pear. Foreclosures are up, lending is tight, and I’ve got a cousin who serves complimentary Rob Roys at his Sunday open houses and still can’t draw a crowd. So why should I even be wasting my time considering these astronomical asking prices?’”
“No matter how you phrase the question, you’ll get the same answer: ‘Prices are stable, but houses are just staying on the market a little longer, so now’s a good time to get in.’”
“So it’s spectacularly good or bad timing that Southern California Multiple Listing Service has decided to limit disclosure of days-on-the-market and cumulative-days-on-the-market data.”
“First, this is clearly a change that serves nervous home sellers and their agents, the only parties who would be concerned that apparently lengthy days-on-market periods might prompt buyers to make low-ball offers.”
“Second, despite this hiccup, the real estate market is experiencing a rapid trend toward transparency.”
“Third, it’s a sign of how much the market has changed from a few years ago, when the buying frenzy made days-on-the-market a nonissue. So here’s some advice: When an agent tells you that overpriced starter home you’re looking at just listed two days ago, smile, nod and check to see how thick the dust is on the windowsills.”
Coincidental with the DJIA breaking 14,000, San Diego’s ziprealty.com inventory of SFRs+Condos now exceeds 20K. Of course, this is a downward-biased estimate of actual inventory, as it does not include FSBOs nor finished new homes that have never sold nor been lived in.
“Your search has returned the first 200 of 20005 homes”
Yeah, they’re all chomping at the bit to get in on the stock market upswing.
~Misstrial
For the first time, I actually heard one of the financial talking heads admit that a lot of the money sloshing around in the stock market has rolled over from RE.
So much for market fundamentals. The sheeple are just looking for the next “big thing” now that RE flipping isn’t doing it anymore.
Agree.
~Misstrial
“I actually heard one of the financial talking heads admit that a lot of the money sloshing around in the stock market has rolled over from RE.”
Sure — underwater real estate investors pulled money out of their behinds to throw at the stock market…
If you want to know where the money in the stock market at the moment came from, look at margin loans — the same kind of rocket fuel that launched the Great Depression.
Yep, that’s going on too, G/S.
I wonder if the job progression is this:
1. dot commers (con-ners), who then got on with…
2. the RE industry (agents), and/or
3. mortgage brokerage service and “lenders,” who are now employed with
4. “foreclosure specialists,” debt collection agencies, and “financial advisors” for the brokerages.
Essentially, anything that’s commission-driven.
~Misstrial
Exactly right, GS. Funny though… borrowed money is obviously what drove the RE bubble, too. Doesn’t anybody have cash anymore???
“Doesn’t anybody have cash anymore???”
Strong hands have cash and $US diversification to boot. Strong hands will get to buy when everyone else is saying ‘real estate is the worst investment.’
Here’s a headline from drudge, imploring the masses to invest in stocks and bonds, as we can’t let foreigners have all the fun.
“Foreigners put more money into American stocks and bonds in May than in any previous month…”
Most market experts know that large flows of foreign money tend to enter a market at the near end of its bull run. Why, they can’t really say, but historically that is often when these cash flows tend to occur. This is a very bearish indicator six months out especially with the dollar falling almost daily. This as interest rates having risen while credit has tightened significantly because of subprime fiasco.
“So it’s spectacularly good or bad timing that Southern California Multiple Listing Service has decided to limit disclosure of days-on-the-market and cumulative-days-on-the-market data.”
Pravda (Prices Really Aren’t Verifiable Data Anymore)
I’m seeing a lot more “Deperate homeowner OR Facing foreclosure, MUST SELL, Call 123-4567″ signs around Jacksonville, Fl.
And yet a friend of mine that sells real estate told me the prices won’t go down here. When I point her to these signs, she just tells us that there has always been foreclosures, this is normal
She sounds pretty friggin smart, what a dolt.
‘It’s not too late to stop this craziness and help people in the future.’
It is a catch 22. If crazy credit is stopped, it will prevent most future foreclosures from new buyers, but will tank the existing market, shutting off the exit routes for more and more FB’s. Think of it like a drug addict going through withdrawl. Pain first, then in the long term stability.
‘It’s not too late to stop this craziness and help people in the future.’
If there really is no more voodoo credit, then prices will continue to fall until they are back in line with incomes, which is a long way away.
Someone gets screwed either way….Either people who bought during the boom or everyone else who buys in the future.
But the people who bought during this boom because they believed “real estate always goes up” are the ones who (along with complicit lenders, etc.) caused the problems in the first place. Sorry, but no mercy for those who bought homes they couldn’t afford with standard financing.
OTOH, I’d love to see the prudent, patient buyers-in-waiting (who’ve been scoffed at and ridiculed for years, now) finally be able to AFFORD a house due to **reasonable pricing** instead of funky financing.
In Florida nothing changes. TOAST!
The banks don’t bother to clean up foreclosures before they sell them? Check this one out…
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1083649824
“Strickly” as-is
Yikes. Wonder how long all the food in the kitchen has been sitting there. And are those water stains or cobwebs in the bedroom? I guess paying someone a few hundred bucks to haul the junk away just wasn’t worth it.
This one down the street is available for the low low price of $110k:
http://tinyurl.com/yrgc2w
I am in S. Orange County CA. Saw two bank owned properties come on the market at 30% below most recent sales. Ie: 1.25 M Property listed at 980K and sold for 950K. The other 1M now at 750K. Still not sold.
Also seeing alot of properties dropping prices daily and no action.
bet the previous owner was the life of the party. now becomes the death of the neighborhood.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4878043152342604330&q=detroit&total=27453&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0
What area in South OC did you see these in?
Local economist Cunningham does not seem to realize that there are almost never small recessions after speculative manias, only big ones.
Real estate, construction woes slow Calif. job growth to a crawl
By Dean Calbreath
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
July 21, 2007
Hiring in California was hit by a bad case of June gloom last month as the effects of the real estate slowdown seeped into the job market, according to data released yesterday by the California Employment Development Department.
Statewide, employers added only 400 jobs in June, after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, compared with a jump of 29,700 in June 2006. Sharp declines in home construction and financial activity – such as mortgage lending – put a crimp in last month’s job growth.
San Diego County reported the slowest year-over-year job growth since January 1994, when the county was crawling out of a recession.
…
“It really is the real estate market that’s causing this,” said Kelly Cunningham, an economist at the San Diego Institute for Policy Research. “Even though job growth in the visitors industry and the professional business sector is still positive, we’re losing as many jobs as we are adding.”
For the past year, Cunningham and Gin have been predicting that San Diego would be able to survive the real estate slowdown without falling into a recession. Now they say they are not sure.
“If this trend keeps going on for the next couple months, it would suggest that we might have a recession before the end of the year,” Cunningham said. “Not a big recession, but a slight one.”
Cunningham added that if the number of real estate foreclosures begins to increase substantially – which he doesn’t think will happen – a recession could be more severe.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070721-9999-1n21jobs.html
which he doesn’t think will happen
http://piggington.com/june_foreclosures
June Foreclosures
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 12, 2007 - 9:21am.
The month of June saw 1,708 Notices of Default and 738 Notices of Trustee Sale.
Even when adjusting for San Diego’s growth, as the graph shows, there were more NODs and NOTs filed in June than in any month during the entire 1990s housing bust.
Kelly C –
Svcks big time when data makes you look like either a liar or a fool.
Now reporting from my home in San Luis Obispo, CA, but the RE agent quote below could apply to Las Cruces too. Prices are still too high in either location whether its southern NM or central coast CA, :
“No matter how you phrase the question, you’ll get the same answer: ‘Prices are stable, but houses are just staying on the market a little longer, so now’s a good time to get in.’”
Prices have fallen about $50k here in SLO overall, but prices are still too high in relation to what they should be or should have been. Folks (i.e.: Wall Street)say that sub-prime is only a small amount of the housing market, but like it or not, sub-primers affected home pricing structure for EVERYONE.
True: last weekend at a realty company (that shall be unnamed) located on the corner of Madonna Rd and LOV Rd here in SLO, there was a RE agent (presumably) OUT IN FRONT of the RE office (decorated with yellow flags & balloons) waiting to greet anyone who may venture past the place. She had flyers in hand. So bizarre. Women will recognize this as identical behavior to sales reps at the cosmetics counters who are out there in the aisles waiting to spray a passerby with cologne.
Personally, it is still too early to buy in SLO. Good grief, a beat-up mobile home (single-wide) in a trailer park off Higuera is going for $80k.
As far as LC is concerned, prices are still too high there too. Knock off $50k and that is more in line with the quality of construction and local amenities available. BTW, cross the Rio Grande into Picacho Hills and the prices go up $75k - and that is in an area prone to flooding (no storm drains.) Most places that you see for sale there have been sitting on the market since the deluge last August. Lots of folks are selling (at least one on every street) due to this flooding. (And the threat reappears with each rainstorm.) Other more recently built custom homes are sitting vacant and prices have only come down (per the flyers) $5k. That is NOT enough. There are nearly entire streets off Roadrunner that are vacant. Buyers: please do not pay these outrageous prices - even for those ridiculous conversions in Sonoma Ranch that are asking $100k for a place that looks like a Hampton Inn.
~Misstrial
“Good grief, a beat-up mobile home (single-wide) in a trailer park off Higuera is going for $80k.”
Huh? is this a tenant-(land)owned park? cuz I don’t think any bank anywhere would be dumb enough to lend on an $80K single wide mobile paying rent in a park. Has this closed escrow? Or someone’s wishing price???? Link?
Got diversified assets?
Was advertised on Craigslist. Can’t link it now, but will here after my download is done. Was listed about 1.5 weeks ago.
~Misstrial
Here it is:
http://slo.craigslist.org/rfs/367137582.html
~Misstrial
22151 s of central soviet
steady turnover at 2005 prices
Report from the Osarks, SW MO, small town on I-44 halfway between Joplin and Springfield
My nephew spoke to one of the top real estate agents yesterday in our small town (pop 4,000). She said the slowdown is noticeable…houses are staying on the market for 6 months (or more). She said the biggest factor in the slowdown is no more buyers from CA. She does have one house with a CA buyer who made a contingency offer — contingent on the CA buyer selling their house in CA. It’s been 6 months now.
All but one of the 7 mini-McMansions on my street have been built and sold in the last couple years. The last one just sold a few weeks ago. I’ve been really surprised that people are buying these ridiculously decorated faux-everything houses in our nondescript little town. There are more new ones nearby (outside of town) still up for sale. One side of the street parallel to mine just had the land cleared (of pasture and cows) and medium sized lots put in. Not a single one has sold yet (there are at least 20-30 lots).
It’s not as slow as I thought it would be (I predicted “dead”) but agents admit is it slow(er).
The people next to me are putting their house on the market (it’s log cabin style). They offered it to me at $15K below appraisal (about 10% off) if we did the deal now, without going thru an agent. I’m not interested in the house so I said no. I’m happily renting anyway and I’ve settled in with a new native plant garden and rent of $550/month.
I recently saw my old neighborhood (Saratoga, CA) was listed by CNN as one of the most expensive places in the US for housing.
TOP LISTS ON CNN http://www.city-data.com/toplists.html
# 5 Saratoga, California ($1,000,001) Highest Medium house Value
Saratoga City summary
http://www.city-data.com/city/Saratoga-California.html
Now that I am in flyover country and outside the CA housing cone of craziness I can’t believe that anyone would have paid more than $150K for my old house! OK, maybe $200K.
Here’s a story on the alive and well bubble in Toronto from a home shopper returning from London:
http://www.thestar.com/article/238280
some choice quotes from the article:
Under a fresh coat of paint, termite tunnels were also visible on the basement's exposed brick wall.
We then met our agent at a coffee shop. She told us nine people had "registered" bids on the house, which meant they called the vendor's agent to say a bid was coming. The sales agent informed her that only three home inspections were conducted. In other words, six people were bidding unaware the place was infested.
We bid $43,000 above asking. Our real estate agent then got a call: three bids were "similar," so could we please make a second offer.
Not the same, but similar. In other words, one among the three had the highest bid. And who says the bids were similar? Where's the proof? The only clear and transparent thing was that more money was being demanded.
By mid May we were seriously thinking of renting.
For some strange there is a very strong wave of new listings in the DC area that are back at 2005 prices… either there are a few REs or FBs who haven’t gotten the message or the FBs are underwater and needing to list at much higher than the surrounding comps… well, then there’s the underlying greed factor.
http://www.homedatabase.com/MC6481599 and http://www.homedatabase.com/DC6477868 are two good examples.
Huhh… my post didn’t show up. Very recently DC metro seems to be reverting to 2005 asking prices… some people must have some serious blinders on or the FBs are totally underwater… and then there is the greed explaination for pricing….
Two good examples of 2005 pricing:
http://www.homedatabase.com/DC6477868
http://www.homedatabase.com/MC6481599
Not much happening here in Pullman, 3 houses closed this week, about 45 pending, and 100 active. Getting ready to shut for the year…
Thought I’d look back at Pullman to see what is happening there:
Here are a few homes that were either on my walking route to work or along my morning jog last spring (2006) when they were first put on the market. Now most are vacant and still on the market: (let’s see if I can link properly)
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php (this is a recent flip)
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
This one has dropped by $150k (going on memory) since last year and appears to have sold. Gotta love those knife catchers, someone has to set the comps!
http://www.heartmontana.com/sitepages/pid19.php
These are for the most part all very nice historic homes in prime neighborhoods that have been extensively remodeled… So much for “the south of main historic disticts will always sell…” because, of course, everyone wants to live there!
We live on Cape Cod. My wife just saw a $300,000 reduction on a $1,100,000 property in the paper. The home is on the water with a deep water dockWe are going to see a repeat of the early 1990’s. Right now small builders are losing their homes,- the next to fall are the developers.
In case you missed my end-of-day post about Missoula yesterday…
In early May, there were 106 houses for sale in the neighborhoods I’m watching. Today there are 124 houses for sale. Since mid-June, it looks like fewer than 10 houses have sold, and a bunch have been taken off the market (just in time to make the mid-July numbers look good). Several of those no longer in MLS still have for sale signs in the front yard.
According to the Missoula Organization of Realtors, http://www.missoularealestate.com/index.php/fuseaction/market.main/ID/0d95f240, in all of Missoula (where there are now 818 houses for sale), 146 houses sold in June, compared to 198 last June (a decline of 26%). At that rate, we are almost up to 6 months of inventory. In June, the median price was $224,450, an increase of 4% from last year.
Asking prices in the neighborhoods I’m watching are an average of $165/square foot. According to property tax records, in 2003, the houses currently for sale were appraised for an average of $80/square foot.
The local paper rarely covers the housing market (doesn’t even have a table of monthly building permits, sales, and foreclosures). When there is an article, it’s usually around the time the realtors release their quarterly numbers, and it sounds like a press release: this is “the last best place,” God’s not making more land, and house prices did not increase here as much as elsewhere.
In fact, in 2003 and 2004 Missoula house prices increased by MORE than the national average (Missoula went up 8.2 and 14.0% compared to 6.5 and 10.0%), and in 2005 and 2006 they went up another 13.0 and 14.2% (I don’t know what the national averages were in those years). According to the Fed, from 1999-2004, Missoula house prices increased 42%. According to Moody’s, from 2001-2005, they went up 63.1%.
In 2005, a local economist, Paul Polzin, said the Missoula economy is not as insulated as locals like to think; the increase in house prices here was related to national trends. http://www.mtinbusiness.com/current/bus01.php
From this it sounds to me like we’re in for a downhill ride – and that’s before you even consider how low Missoula household incomes are. In the 2007 State of Missoula Housing Report, http://www.missoularealestate.com/docs/2007MissoulaHousingReportcomplete.pdf, there’s a chart that shows that, in 2006, if four Missoulians earning the median income pooled their funds, they could not afford the median house (!!!!) Just 11% of Missoula households have the $37K annual income needed to purchase a median-priced home. And even you have the bucks, it’s tough. There are few houses (and even fewer nice ones) in the median range.
The average rent for a 4-BR house or apartment is $980. A monthly payment of $980 would buy a $135,000 house (about $90K less than the median house). To me this says (1) “keep renting, girl!” and (2) we are going to see a lot of former rental houses on the market very soon.
The average down payment for the last several years has been between 3 and 5%. So even a slight downturn in the market will put many folks in the red. I haven’t been tracking foreclosures, but from the 2007 State of Missoula Housing Report, I know there was a 22% spike in 2006, and it seems like there are more on RealtyTrac every week.
Most people I talk to aren’t noticing anything other than the large and slow moving inventory. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for asking prices to come down and for the local media to start telling the other side of the story. Since Montana is a non-disclosure state – and since the comps realtors dole out are so old (whether due to cherry picking or low sales volume) – asking prices will be the main way Joe and Jody Public see the change. Only God and realtors get to know selling prices.
Thanks M gal for the info about Missoula. I think you’re correct about Missoula’s overvalued housing. Except for some lumber products and university students, Missoula doesn’t create much export dollar wealth, and is 500+ miles from the nearest ocean port. In terms of world trade, it’s out in the sicks.
My guess on the future of Missoula is:
1) fewer California equity locust eating your house crop.
2) higher & higher gas prices (lower & lower summer tourist dollars).
3) higher & higher energy prices (big bills to heat the winter sub-zero McMansion; pump price shock -Montana is not compact, & higher cost for everything -you live out in the sticks.)
4) stricter lending standards to chisel away at the 11% of households that can currently afford a median priced home in Missoula.
I grew up in Missoula and went through the stagflation & gas crisis of the 1970’s. Housing & the ecomomy was toast then in Missoula, and the way the housing prices are so out of wack today, (by what people can “really” afford) they will be super deluxe burnt toast in the future.
Thanks for the Missoula update. As bad as things are in Missoula, affordability wise, it is apparently much worse in Bozeman. Bozeman actually has fewer real employment opportunities than Missoula, a much larger inventory overhang (about 2000 for the Gallatin valley as a whole) and much higher home prices.
If there is a big difference betweent the two towns it is that Missoula is a bit bigger and you can therefore get better RE statistics.
Interesting. BTW, as of today there are 2811 listings in the area covered by the Missoula MLS (”Western Montana”). This includes the Bitterroot, Blackfoot, Seeley/Swan, and Flathead/Bigfork — probably a much larger area than the Gallatin Valley, and with a larger employment base. Still, that seems like a huge number.
The Lehigh Valley is going to crash faster than expected. I think our prices by 2010 will be at 1998 or below. When the average median income is $47k and average homes are 220k something is really wrong and needs fixed. In 2000 (still was a little bit high) the average home were 100k and under usually. They local paper is such a BS rag. They print statistics from the realtors only trying to paint a pretty picture. I still can’t believe people are buying these overpriced dud’s and are thinking they are getting a deal. Even though prices may have fallen 10% or so it’s still 60% overpriced. By 2010 homes that sold for 250k will be selling for 125-150k (what they are actually worth). We’ve owned our home since the mid 90’s and could have sold for triple what we paid, but didn’t. What would we have done then? Bought a overpriced home? No thanks! The rental market is full of 1,200 - $2,500 a month rentals (LOL). You can rent a nice 2-3 bedroom home or apartment for under $900 easily, usually $650-750. These are desperate pre-foreclosures.
It’s bad
Real bad
It’s going to get much, much worse before it even starts to get better. Reality check’s are coming and I can’t wait for the Morning Call (NAR CHEERLEADER PAPER) to run the headlines, “WE NEVER SAW IT COMING”. LOL!!!
We are trying to sell my dad’s place (decent mobile home in senior park), and the realtor asked us what he paid. When told that he bought for around $85k in mid-2004, the first thing she said was, “you do know that prices have dropped since then.”
Good to see some realtors are trying to get the word out.
BTW, we plan to list for about 10-15% below mid-2004 prices & believe it will still sit for a while at that.
Some areas here (North County San Diego) are still treading water at 2004/2005 levels while others seem to be in the 2003 range.
A note on commercial: noticed A LOT of commercial building in the Carlsbad/San Marcos area (Palomar Airport Rd., for those who are familiar) — but these are all for sale/lease. Very few have tenants.
This supply is in addition to all the existing commercial space available. Definitely seeing more vacancies — most industrial & commercial developments & strip malls have vacancies now.
Drove to the Costco in Concord, CA (East Bay Area) the other day. It happens to be in a part of town with a large Hispanic population. There were 5-10 men sitting on almost every street corner at 1100 am on a rather hot day. Seems to me a couple years ago, they would’ve all been snatched up to work at various construction sites by that time of day.
AK-LA,
Didn’t you know that Newton Nj is the next big thing? Everyone is relocating there, easy commute to NYC, low taxes and great amenities! It’s about to take off! A house like you listed is a steal! The photos show the wonderful lived-in charm of such an investment. Hurry get in now before you’re priced out….. forever!
Update from the central coast…
Two years ago, 1900 sq. ft. homes in a nice area of Arroyo Grande (a city over from Pismo Beach) were going for the mid $700Ks…now there is a nice one with new carpet, paint, and closet accessories with a listing price of $579K.
I work nights for a delivery service. With very few exceptions, everyone on my shift is a full-time student or has a day job.
Last night at work, a dispatcher was loudly trying to convince another dispatcher that “now is the time to buy” in New Bedford, a former whaling town that is now now a crime-ridden armpit. According to him, housing “has to go up” because “they’re going to clean up New Bedford”. Never mind that The Powers That Be have been trying to clean up New Bedford since whaling collapsed.
On my side of the office, everyone wants to leave town. Most want to move down south. The students want to leave as soon as they graduate. The part-timers are trying to either pay off debts or save a down payment, then move. We all know that prices here are insane.
I spent some time in Fitchburg last weekend. It’s about 50 miles from Boston. There are very few jobs, but the commuter rail can get you to Boston in 90 minutes. I went to high school in Fitchburg, and I never dreamed it would become a bedroom town. There’s still a lot of development going on, including a brand new Market Basket and a lot of housing. There have been housing collapses before, and I shudder to think of what will happen next time.
The Sunday real estate display ads from the nearby city newspaper are still not offering much in the way of price reductions or discounted option packages. Maybe it’s because modest but attractive homes (2000 sq ft or so) are still available for plus or minus $200K. Also, resales are definitely priced lower than new homes in this area. However, sales volumes in the various counties are down anywhere from 5 to 30% compared to last year. Median prices are anywhere from flat to -13% compared to last year.
The wife and I rented a car yesterday to visit some friends out on the edge of suburbia here in Chicago. Since we had the car, we did some shopping as well. The outlet mall out there was packed, but none of the stores had any lines at the cash registers, except for Banana Republic which had pretty much the entire store at 40% off on top of 20-30% reductions. Crappy merchandise, however - they appear to only carry a specific factory store line (tag says Banana Republic and then has 3 diamonds underneath) these days. No more overstock of their regular merchandise.
Also went to Ikea; this one is in a brand-new shopping center with an Office Depot (or was it Staples?) and a Bed Bath and Beyond. Each store had a large lot and the complex had a huge overflow lot. All the cars for all the stores could have fit into one of the parking lots, and this was the first time I’ve ever been to Ikea and not had to wait 15 minutes in line at the cash register. In fact, there was no line at all. This should be the time of the year when college students are buying their dorm and apartment furnishings.