Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For July 22, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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BRANFORD - Peter Banca looked out a window of his Stony Creek home, across his sloping lawn to the green swath of marsh named for his father, a look of surprise on his face.
“I had no idea,” he said when confronted with the prediction that the marsh would disappear in a few decades. But he knew the implications immediately.
Banca marsh has been losing 10 or more feet of its seaward edge each year to what some scientists call sudden wetland dieback - a so-far unexplained phenomenon in which marsh grasses die off, leaving mud, pocked with holes, to wash away with the tide. Even away from the edge, pockets of marsh grass are fading into barren mud sinks
http://www.courant.com/news/custom/topnews/hc-marshdieback.artjul22,0,5537664.story?coll=hc_tab01_layout
——————————————————–
Impact to ppty. values????
“I just wonder if there’s anything we can do, as a society and a nation, to protect ourselves,” Banca said.
What? The whole story points out that most of this problem is caused by overbuilding too close to the water’s edge. It doesn’t allow the marshes to move inward. These places are dying so that rich folks can have second homes in little seaside playgrounds. I’m sure they will want the government to fork over more money so that they can continue to have their pristine little retreats from the common man. I can just picture a flock of Kennedys going with their hands out to the Feds to protect their “way of life”.
This seems like it will hurt a lot of property values. Property that is worth more because of water must be worth less when the water disappears. There goes the view that they never should have had. Quit building so close to water. It is dangerous for everybody involved, especially the wildlife.
“Quit building so close to water. It is dangerous for everybody involved, especially the wildlife.”
Testify, brothah!
It’s a swamp. I wonder what the mosquitoes and the smells are like.
I understand that there is a rich ecosystem, but it’s still a swamp. Call it a wetland, marshland whatever - but it’s not an idyllic, dry meadow.
Yesterday, on the local Tampa Bay cable news station (Bay News 9), there was a very interesting story about a lovely little town near the Gulf, Aripeka. Much of it salt marsh, little channels feeding out to the Gulf. A lot of old Florida scenery. Great old cracker houses, etc. And then someone goes and builds this huge sprawling ugly monstrosity of a residence. Now the locals see their little piece of old Florida fading away. This is what I hate about development. Squeezes out the folks who have lived there for many years and enjoyed a scenic, natural environment. I hope that monstrosity and others like it get swallowed up by sinkholes.
Amen, Palmetto!
Same thing going on BIG TIME here in So Cal.
Well, as I’ve said many times, the underlying problem is population growth.
Some people were wondering the other day what’s wrong with having 5 kids…..THIS is what’s wrong with having 5 kids.
Right on!!
wow! my kid sister the doctor was # 6 in our family! Sieg Heil!
This is supposed to change things how?
It’s the volume of people, not the quality. Why is this a hard concept?
You are right……some of us should bust a cap on ourselves to preserve the ecological balance of things.
You first……….:)
Yeah, I get that one a lot. I always get a chuckle out of the originality of it too. Why are people so defensive about this? Must be guilt.
Please tell me why having 5 kids, these days, is a good idea instead of coming with meaningless, childish comments.
They came to the nuisance of unstable turf on the water’s edge, and deserve to bear the consequences.
I totally feel for Banca. Next time I am in Connecticut I’ll swing by his place, smoke some $100 bills with him, and maybe the two of us can finally figure out how to control nature.
Here is a reference for you to share with Banca when you visit:
http://www.johnmcphee.com/controlofnature.htm
Great book - I read that about ten years ago as I was just discovering my love of geology. Of course Katrina brought that book back to the front of many book shelves.
The comment at the end of the article about dust from Africa carrying diseases across the Atlantic made me reach for my Valium!
Mark Bertness, a marsh ecologist from Brown University, does not like to speculate about causes.
“Science is not about hunches and science is not about having a pet hypothesis,” Bertness said. “Science is about figuring it out.”
which is naturally followed by the envirowacko conclusion:
Everywhere he looks, Bertness sees the hand of man.
“What I am most alarmed about is that every case we know of is triggered by human disturbance,” he said.
And as asserted by his own words, he does not practice science.
I don’t get it - why is that an “envirowacko conclusion” if it’s true? Who or what else is responsible? If he’s looking at various cases and sees that as the trigger, seems like it’s a possible/probable cause.
So, we draw a conclusion based on a lack of factual information. And although it’s plainly junk-science, there’s nothin wrong with that if this conclusion fits our agenda..
But if the conclusion didnt fit (for instance, human activity has actually slowed the rate of loss of marshland) then it’s inconceivable and unacceptable.
This extremely short four page introduction to his work does not really cover the science except in glancing detail, so you are the one with the bogus conclusions. Serious investigation shows this kind of trouble all over the place. New England has about one hundred years to find an alternative to road salt or allow its watersheds to be destroyed. The huge growth in natural gas mining in Wyoming has left many tens of thousand of acres polluted with toxic residues. Ongoing disruption of wetlands is just one example of how being poor stuards of the planet causes problems for people. Problems not only don’t go away because they are complex and unpleasant, they tend to fester.
yeah.. right.. mankind’s attempts to survive and flourish are unnatural and must be stopped.
thankfully the stewards of this planet have a handle on it. Who are the stewards? Mankind, of course.
Because mankind himself was the one who anointed mankind as the steward.
As you said, “there’s nothin wrong with that if this conclusion fits our agenda..”
Thank you, Sleepless and Mole Man. Our local paper has an article about the wildflowers in Colorado disappearing because it warms up earlier now, they bud out, the buds freeze as we return to normal for a week or two, then no flowers or seeds - it’s affecting everything, from the bugs that eat the seeds to humans. Our fruit orchards are doing the same thing. The decline is rapid and scary. I, for one, love Colorado peaches. Hope my grandkids (if I have any) get to enjoy them.
from the local craigslist…
20000 Ugly Old Stinky House with Cat Urine Smell
——————————————————————————–
Reply to: hous-379297478@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-07-21, 10:33PM EDT
YUCK.. Hold your nose. My auntie had 54 cats and left me this house when she died.
Nice Area , but I dont know how to fix it.
Will Sell for 60,000 CASH
Fast Sale Wanted
Has any one else seen this in thier area It just seems “fishy”
It’s a scam. They posted the same thing on craigslist all over the country:
http://tinyurl.com/yox3n7
Sounds like some sort of bizzare prank.
Good job, GS.
The usual HBB/craigslist curse struck again & these posts have been deleted!
Is the Finance world now suffering from sub-prime cancer Metastasis?
14,000 We Hardly Knew Ye - Again as Subprime Jumps the Fire Line.
http://buttonwood1792.blogspot.com/
I would love to say, “you’re right” and just start hammering this market short. But Goldilocks has proven to be so resilient. I can only compare her to the bad guy in Terminator 2 that could keep reforming himself, even after being blown to smithereens. There have been so many times when the markets should have been pounded. Back in February there was all of a 3 day crash when the news of subprime came on. The market then just kept shooting back up.
It has been a b&tch to be a bear in the last year. The homebuilder stocks, and some of the financials, are lower now than they were a year ago. But everything else seems to have gone up. I look forward to Goldilocks’ demise so that we can live within a real economy again. I would also like to see Cocaine Kudlow silenced. But we really need to see if the disasters now taking place in the credit markets will carry through. The boys on Wall Street have proven they can sniff out a nickel and latch on to it, no matter which way the winds are blowing.
Goldilocks has a sugar daddy at the Fed.
What is that supposed to mean? Raising rates and holding them cause this? Sounds like you are having fun in your fantasy world again. Saying “The Fed” is exactly the same to you as comedians in the fifties saying “My Wife”. You know they bad, you say it, and the audience goes along with it. I think you are totally full of it. You don’t have any argument or rationale, only a hated target and some extra spite. Hearing this kind of thing always makes me think that the Fed must be right and you know it, otherwise you would not be so mindlessly petulant and instead would bring up arguments and connect them to evidence.
Google “exchange stabilization fund,” “working group on financial markets,” “plunge protection team,” or “PPT.” Believe what you want, but at least be informed before you start an argument.
See also “Private Equity Bubble.”
Mole Man, how long have you worked at the Fed?
“You don’t have any argument or rationale, only a hated target and some extra spite.”
Look at the pot calling the kettle black. Where is your argument or rationale? I often times bring data and reason to my posts; you only seem to have vitriol to offer.
One more point, Mole Man, I have brought so much evidence to bear on the whole PPT thingee that I am tired of talking about it any more. But if you are sufficiently motivated, I am sure you can find plenty of evidence posted by me and others in the archives of this blog.
Happy researching!
Mole Man just likes to needle the awesome long-time posters here. We need to treat his comments like those of our long-lost friend “The Lingus” — just for entertainment purposes.
Goldilocks and the bad guy from terminator 2: it’s all about liquidity
I myself got my ill gotten gains erased last year on the HB stocks. After they were trashed early in ‘06 the value players smelled bargains! I am short again and so far so good. Quite a bit more cautious, with smaller positions. This has helped ride out the small popups. I strongly feel the downward momentum is unstoppable in ‘07. The weaker player BZH, HOV have poorer fundamentals (high debt, the charts look horrible, new 52W lows, …) and so far have being throughly kicked in the !$$ . However, the share prices are well below the 200 day avg, and are overdue for a good rebound.
I feel your pain…have been trading options on the HBs since late 2004 (up and down), and had 100%+++ gains until mid-2006. Lost all that and a bit more.
Just gaining a bit more ground lately, but nothing as good as the first six months of 2006. Hoping to catch another opportunity like that again, but certainly not expecting it.
I wondered what was going on with the markets too. 14000! Wasn’t it just a week ago that some economist predicted the market could hit 14000 by Dec. It seems like the worse the news the higher the market goes.
Don’t look now, but the U.S. headline indexes are in a parabolic bubble blowout phase for the second time in the past decade. Keep blowing them bubbles, Fed.
Amazingly, the Economist magazine is lauding Bernanke for shedding his helicopter drop reputation, despite his holding the Fed Funds Rate (and perhaps l-t Treasury yields) at very stimulative levels (likely negative real rates with truthfully-reported inflation). Being a magazine written for economists by economists, I guess they easily confuse talk with action:
Monetary policy
From helicopter to hawk
Jul 19th 2007
From The Economist print edition
America’s economy looks weak, but the Fed’s chief has been right to emphasise the risk of inflation
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9516452
“In a speech to academic economists earlier this month, he said the idea that inflationary policies could permanently increase employment has been “entirely discredited”.”
It took a group of 6-year olds nearly 5 minutes to discredit that brilliant theory.
This article is just awful. Who writes this tripe?
“In truth, America’s economy is enduring quite a bumpy landing. The labour market is probably weaker than it looks (see article). Economic growth has been slower than many, including the Fed, had forecast a year ago. The slump in housebuilding has proved deeper and more protracted than expected and there are worries that it could spill over into other areas of the economy, like consumer spending.”
So, there is no soft landing? Shocker! Growth is slowing down quite a bit now that the phony housing market is dying? Aghast! It could spill over to the broader economy? Unbelievable!
These idiots are so stupid they can’t even predict the past. You are killing me this morning, Stucco. To quote the famous Roberto Duran, “no mas”.
Contrarian Chronicles
7/23/2007 12:01 AM ET
Dow 14,000: I’m skipping the party
Big threats are being ignored as investors celebrate the stock market’s latest milestone. We haven’t seen such arrogance since the heady days of 1999 and 2000.
By Bill Fleckenstein
“Behind Dow 12,000, an economy at risk.”
That was the headline of my column on Oct. 30. Today, the risks have grown appreciably against the backdrop of a Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) that’s 2,000 points higher. Considering that this environment teeters on a massive edifice of leverage, illiquid concocted securities and derivatives, I cannot imagine a more dangerous time to be bullish.
To me, it has the worst elements of all the biggest inflection points in stock market history. There is the economic and stock market similarity to 1929. There is the derivative and leveraged-buyout component we experienced in 1987, coupled with the extreme lunacy of 1989’s LBO craze. Then there is the investor arrogance on display that we last saw in 1999 and 2000.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/Dow14000ImSkippingTheParty.aspx
Great article!
I’m Bill’s biggest groupie. Wish he was single
I thought you were after Herb Greenberg. You are an econo-groupie.
Fleckenstein is an interesting read, however he has been a bear for soooo long. And he has been wrong for sooo long. If I had not listened to him and others my retirement funds would 20% higher.
Smart is always sexy. I just wish he didn’t look so much like my ex >; )
Not sure that I agree that he has been wrong. Below is a Fleck article that made me feel as though I had done the right thing by selling and then closing on 6/1/2005. It was published a bit after Apr 2006. Once the story is in Time, it’s waaay to late. So I think that his reasoning has been right, but just too early compared to the mkt. It seems as though you want to call that wrong, but I don’t.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp
He hasn’t
I’m with Txchick57…I’m also a Fleckenstein groupie. I like what he says about the upcoming crash…I’m paraphrasing - “I’m frequently wrong but never in doubt.”
He’s early, not wrong…
Remember what you wish you had done in 2000? Me too.
Try this; replace the word consumer with citizen. The whole “consumer” thing is marketing hype. After all a Citizen is:
Pronunciation: \ˈsi-tə-zən also -sən\
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English citizein, from Anglo-French citezein, alteration of citeien, from cité city
Date: 14th century
1: an inhabitant of a city or town; especially : one entitled to the rights and privileges of a freeman
2 a: a member of a state b: a native or naturalized person who owes allegiance to a government and is entitled to protection from it
3: a civilian as distinguished from a specialized servant of the state
This is MUCH better than what OUR government thinks of it’s CITIZENS which is we are just Consumers or:
Main Entry: con·sum·er
Pronunciation: \kən-ˈsü-mər\
Function: noun
Usage: often attributive
Date: 15th century
: one that consumes: as a: one that utilizes economic goods b: an organism requiring complex organic compounds for food which it obtains by preying on other organisms or by eating particles of organic matter
What I really think is Wall Street and the Gov are the consumers of you and me, at least by definition.
So are you a CITIZEN or a CONSUMER?
Nicely put, fla. When referred to as a “consumer”, we ought to react as if it was an offensive racial slur. Perhaps we could get it designated as a hate crime. I’m serious. You’ve made a very good point here. “Consumer” is a fascist term.
Consumer=Interest Payment Unit
Right on fla-pa & palmetto, we should indeed be outraged. But, it is simply more proof to the argument that ALL* politicians of BOTH parties have nothing but elitist contempt for us.
*(except for that fella in TX with those wacky ideas about accountability and smaller government)
I didn’t get a chance to post yesterday, but I did read some of the exchange about government workers and I wanted to put in my two cents: I am not now, nor have I ever been, a government worker. However, I have had the opportunity to work with those in local government in the past and also have been served on many occasions by government workers. For the most part, my experiences have been positive and on the whole, most government workers I have known have been decent, dedicated people. Sometimes THEY have been frustrated by the “outside contractors” they have had to work with. Having been a supplier to local government, we always gave them a fair shake and showed up the minute they needed us, so they were very grateful for anyone who could help them out and they knew they were getting a fair shake because they compared our quotes to those they received from others.
A certain amount of government is necessary. If water ever becomes privatized to any great extent in this country, you’ll be on your knees praying for government to take over that function. Yes, there is deadwood and waste. The solution is to eliminate the deadwood and the waste, not eliminate necessary functions and decent public servants.
Unfortunately, if you look back at our history, the US government has done one thing - get bigger and bigger, invading more and more of our lives. I don’t blame government workers per se; I blame all of us for not being more vigilant. The US Constitution is all about putting a straitjacket around government, in an attempt to restrain its natural tendancy to keep expanding. Obviously, it has failed. We now have a nation of zombies who are willing to give up their liberties for “freedom.”
Regarding water, I believe water is already privatized to a great extent in this country. I could be wrong, but I know that highways, bridges, ports, and most other infrastructure is being auctioned off by government and privatized. It would surprise me if the thieves forgot to include water in their looting of America.
Read some of Harry Browne’s work to see how he destroys various myths about how we “need” government. Most of our beliefs about government are the result of the indoctrination we receive in schools and the media.
I’ve spent more than the IRS says I owe fighting them over having to pay it. It’s the principle of the thing.
I support Ron Paul’s views on the IRS. I am just saying that not all government is bad. I was very grateful for the firefighters that showed up when the building where I was living burned. Very dedicated folks. Back in the day, firefighting and other emergency functions were privatized. That’s where those collectible cast iron firemarks come from. People who could afford fire insurance put them on their homes. When the fire fighters showed up, if there was a fire mark on the house, they fought the fire, knowing they’d be compensated by the insurance company. If not, they’d let let it burn, in some cases. At least, that’s what I read in my research.
Palmy, I agree with you, although I, too, believe government is becoming too large and in some cases, our enemy. My dad was an employee of the Dept. of Energy and was a very hard-working and ethical man. I’ve also seen government at the local level, as I was once on search and rescue, working closely with sheriff’s deputies and firemen and all sorts of local government types. I think govt. becomes a problem when it gets top-heavy and bureaucratic and places rules in the way of common sense. I think govt. at the local level can be very good, but once at the state and federal levels, be wary.
I think govt. becomes a problem when it gets top-heavy and bureaucratic and places rules in the way of common sense.
Bingo.
I’ve worked for several corporations in IT that were *far* more inefficient than the state university where I work now.
Inefficency is the natural result when you have a top-heavy, centralized, rule-driven, blind-obedience-oriented, heirarchical arrogant bureaucracy that is deaf to what is really happening on the front lines. I call it ‘Soviet-style’, and it’s a terrible way to manage IT, or anything else.
The are government agencies that resemble this, but also a great number of large corporations.
The ‘private industry is always more efficient than government’ ideologues are full of it.
Just piling on here…
I’ve worked for both public and private employers. In general, the public employees were required to have greater qualifications (education and experience), were held more accountable and were more efficient and hard-working than their private counterparts.
It is true, however, that govt is less efficient because it is too top-heavy. For instance, many fire departments have more chiefs than necessary, and could stand to hire more paramedics & firefighters. Likewise, many (but not all) school districts have an unbelievably high administrator-to-teacher ratio.
It’s not the actualy govt workers **who do the work** who are the problem, it’s the politicians (and all their highly-paid administrative cronies) who cause govt to run in an inefficient and costly manner.
i hear you but TX it maybe because you do such complex trades that basic IRS person doesn’t understand. I’ve had a taste of that for one year’s return. The CPA hired to redo my tax return once also got it wrong. They didn’t understand Non-qualified stock options were income only and not subject to cap gains.
That was very enlightening txchic57.
“..If water ever becomes privatized to any great extent in this country, you’ll be on your knees praying for government to take over that function..”
water?
How about “privatized” food .. how about gasoline.. How about the roof over your head.
Are you praying for govt to take over these functions? I’m not.
The hand of the private sector is already shoved into our puppet govt, folks. There are a few laws, and a few good lawmakers, holding us back from a total takeover, but next time you rail against “big government” ask yourselves to whose behest “big government” has been operating lo these many years. Why was it such a breeze, for example, for citicorp and other bankers to get mortgage and credit card regulations loosened to the point that every one of us gets stuck with the bill? Why did “big govt” give away our airwaves for a song to private industry? Why has our big govt outsourced our jobs and allowed the importing of tainted food from China? We created the pure food and drug act decades ago because the “private sector” was poisining its citizens with fake food — and now here we are again…
I actually think the whole “big govt” vs. “private sector” is a big, oily red herring of an argument– designed to get the naive to sanction robbing our citizens blind. A government without laws and regulations might work in a nation of honest people, but it really works best only for a ruthless, unscrupulous few.
The only “free market” you’ll ever sell me is one that takes corruption into account, and has a good regulatory system, with sharp teeth, to discourage vice. Our problem is not “big government”, it’s a big, toothless government that has allowed itself to be prostituted to big business.
“..private sector is already shoved into our puppet govt, folks..”
Certainly, if any govt is privatized it is ours.
We the people wanted easy credit.
The collective-WE want cheap goods, imported or not.
We are invested in all these “evil” corporations, either directly or through pension funds and the like.. and we do want them to control the govt to the degree that we make a profit.
Business is where we work. Of course we desire govt to whore to our income source.
We install and elect our govt and they respond to our desires or they are replaced. Alternatives are not pretty.
The only part of this whole thing that “We the people” don’t want is to take full responsibility for any shortcomings.. But if we don’t take responsibility for the bad stuff, we can’t take credit for the good stuff.
Amen, housegeek!!!!
Strike up the Lone Ranger Theme Song!
I have some questions on this rescue operation:
1) Is it reasonable to hope that Fan and Fred will do a better job with subprime lending than the collapsed private subprime industry did?
2) On what authority do Fannie and Freddie offer govt guarantees for bad credit risks?
3) Who pays the insurance premiums on those guarantees? (My guess: All U.S. federal taxpayers.)
4) Who are the real beneficiaries of the guarantees — is it the FBs who are just figuring out they bought homes they cannot afford, or the lenders and Wall Street investment banks, private equity firms and hedge funds eager to snap up reconstituted subprime loans with a taxpayer-provided guarantee?
Fannie, Freddie deepen involvement in subprime loan market
By Danielle Reed
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
July 22, 2007
NEW YORK – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are riding to the rescue of the subprime lending market.
The two large housing finance agencies are beefing up their business of guaranteeing subprime loans at a time when slack lending standards and falling home prices have translated into rising delinquencies and foreclosures among subprime borrowers.
Their involvement will provide alternatives for borrowers anxious to refinance out of existing mortgages that have or will reset to higher monthly payments.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070722/news_1h22fanniee.html
Two more questions:
5) How is Fannie Mae’s balance sheet looking in the wake of the subprime sector’s collapse and moves by credit rating agencies to start truthfully reporting the value of collapsed debt obligations (CDOs)?
6) When will the NYSE get around to delisting them?
I want to puke.
7) When will they change the rules again to allow stated income and teaser rate loans?
Does this rescue have anything to do with Line 34 on page 13 of the recent FRB release? $1.2 Trillion is a lot of juice for a new entry of “Securitized real estate”
Fannie and Freddie MBS are not government guaranteed, nor do Fannie and Freddie offer any government guaranties. The guarantee of timely payment of P&I on FHLMC and FNMA PCs rests on the financial condition of FHLMC and FNMA (with a “guessed at” net worth ratio of less than 2%). The only government guarantees related to their MBS are those PCs that contain FHA loans in the pools (a very small percentage).
FHLMC and FNMA yields are close to GNMA yields simply because most investors believe the Federal government wouldn’t allow FHLMC/FNMA to default on their MBS, as well as their bonds.
“…nor do Fannie and Freddie offer any government guaranties.”
Did you read the article I posted? In light of your comment, I am quite puzzled by this statement in the article. This is the first mention I have ever seen in print that Fan and Fred are in the “business of guaranteeing subprime loans”:
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are riding to the rescue of the subprime lending market.
The two large housing finance agencies are beefing up their business of guaranteeing subprime loans at a time when slack lending standards and falling home prices have translated into rising delinquencies and foreclosures among subprime borrowers.
I hope the following account from my neighbor isn’t too far off-topic, but this board often discusses U.S. economics.
It was predicted that NAFTA would take mfg jobs away from the U.S., and by reading this blog and others, I’ve become more aware how true that prediction was.
A trip that my neighbor recently made to Mexico also confirms that the global economy may be good for industrialists, but it’s not so good for U.S. factory workers.
My neighbor went to Mexico as a way to partially fulfill requirements for her public health degree.
The object of her two-wk visit was to investigate local health problems in one of the poorer regions in Mexico.
She stayed with a local Mexican family so she could make a 1st-hand assessment of local health problems.
My neighbor had run-ins with the Federales, who told her to stop taking so many pictures.
Why?
My neighbor pieced together the following picture of what is occurring in Mexico.
It turns out that multinational companies, such as Hershey’s, are turning the local countryside upside down…
Farmland is being disrupted as water is diverted from farms to run factories instead.
As a result, laborers who once worked on farms now come to cities so they can find work in factories.
The town in which she stayed, not that long ago, was a sleepy burg of 5,000.
Within a matter of years, laborers forced off the land have swollen the burg to a fetid town of 38,000, without a sewer system or other
semblance of sanitation.
Sanitation was horrible, but according to my neighbor, there were two chief health problems:
1. The displaced men drank heavily.
2. Consequently, domestic violence was rampant.
My neighbor came home with dark circles under her eyes.
She said packs of dogs were everywhere, and each night you could hear them fighting.
Also, each night, she could hear the sounds of domestic violence.
It was difficult for her to meet the town’s one physician, and her meeting took place in secrecy, lest he be seen talking to her…
both of them could have gotten in trouble with the Federales, it seems.
Now I have a better understanding of why “rebels” are blowing up pipelines in Mexico.
And now a Hershey bar, produced by persons w/o access to proper sanitation, doesn’t seem so appealing anymore.
If you like chocolate, eat Russell-Stovers, made right here in Montrose, Colorado, in a very clean factory with fairly good working conditions by local citizens. I worked there for one summer in college and never want to see a chocolate bar again (YOU try working where you can have all the free chocolate you want). It’s actually a pretty good employer. Dump Hersheys (disclaimer- I have no connections with Russell-Stovers).
Will do!! Thanks for this alternative.
Another twist to DAFTA is agricultural impact. Because the US so heavily subsidizes food, it has ruined local farm economies who cannot compete. This drives the menfolk to migrate to cities or US to look for work.
Ethanol Bubble is also diverting corn resources to this market instead of food.
I’ve been to Mexico twice at that was to the “high tech” part. Just driving around, I was amazed at what a basket case the place was.
same trick that the EU uses to kill the rural agricultural economies and Africa (to the benefit of their millionaire-’entrepeneurs’, farmers). At the same time they complain about all the migrants that are trying to get into Europe …
Last summer, I went to visit relatives in San Diego. We took a day trip to Tijuana. I’m no stranger to poverty, but the stuff I saw in a few hours shocked me. The poverty and desperation were amazing.
And the really amazing thing is that Mexico is far better off than most 3rd world countries.
But there is a great deal of denial in Mexico. I lived 12 years in Mexico City and mostly rubbed shoulders with the upper middle class and above. These people have their heads stuck in the sand when it comes to the situation in their country. They think that because they have most of the same creature comforts we have in the US that Mexico is a 1st world country. They don’t see the poor as they drive to the mall in their imported sport sedans while chatting on their cell phones. They live in their own flavor of McMansions in gated communities, vacation in seaside resorts that have been sanitized of poor beggars (I’m talking about new resorts, not monsters like Acapulco or PV). They love the current immigration “arrangement” where they dump their excess people on us. It all good.
Subprime is now contained to a $50-$100b bump in the road.
BTW, did I miss the economist’s poll which established their collective agreement on the risk of a systemwide credit crunch? I am wondering if anyone can furnish a reference on that quote? (Or is it something like those phantom bids that Realtwhores always bring up when trying to close a deal?)
Subprime losses called bumps on road
Investors seen as overreacting
By Joe Bel Bruno
ASSOCIATED PRESS
July 22, 2007
NEW YORK – Wall Street shuddered when two hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns Cos. buckled from exposure to subprime loans, but economists say investors’ reaction might be overblown.
At first, the news this past week seemed alarming. Shareholders of Bear Stearns found out Tuesday that two of its hedge funds were rendered practically worthless by wrong-way bets in complicated mortgage securities. Then, a few days later, several top U.S. banks said they’ve added to reserves to withstand loan defaults expected in the second half of the year.
But there were calming words from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said during congressional testimony that while there will be significant losses from the subprime market, he still views them as bumps along the road. Economists agree that losses from subprime mortgages won’t likely trigger a systemwide credit crunch.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070722/news_1b22bear.html
I wonder how many “economists” have their money where their mouth lies. It may not trigger a credit crunch but on the otherhand, it may and behind the scenes they’d recommend the printing of money to cover it up.
These “economists” make out like Economics is a proven science. It is not: It is an opinion. These will be the same people saying “Nobody could have foreseen it” if it does happen. Useful idiots.
Your points are well taken, but I suspect an even worse situation is presented in the article, which insinuates some kind of nonexistent poll was used to figure out on what “economists agree.” Most likely, the writer talked to two or so economists to obtain this “consensus” view.
All of these ‘economists’ have ties either to housing or to the credit industry - notice the rose-colors coming from S&P and Moody’s -two firms criticized for over-rosifying risk in subprime loans. Not ONE quote from an independent economist. Shame on the press again — seems like it’s a serious case of quote shopping.
Finger Lakes: here come the locusts. Oh well…
http://democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070722/NEWS01/707220326
It’s just another boom-bust cycle in the making. It will take care of itself in the coming years.
I wonder if the buyers from NYC, NJ and Philly enjoy the 5-7 hour drive to upstate NY. A friend of mine from Staten Island considered buying in the New Paltz area, but the monster traffic heading through north Jersey en route to New Paltz changed the feel of the outings to view the beautiful, relatively inexpensive properties.
How would they know? Most of them have probably never seen the properties they bought. They are “investors”.
Kramer vrs. Kramer, meet Wall Street.
Barclays may sue to recover losses at Bear Stearns
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:07 PM ET Jul 21, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Barclays Plc, once an investor in a now worthless Bear Stearns hedge fund that bet on subprime securities, is now considering its options for recovering $400 million it invested in the fund, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Saturday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/barclays-considers-options-recovering-losses/story.aspx?guid=%7BFCC5747E%2DBD40%2D4D60%2D8AA9%2DDEC475687C4D%7D
They sound just like flippers who want to get their deposits back. Privatize the gains: Socialize the losses.
BTW, the U.S. was still reeling from a recession in 1992, and it was still not over yet in CA.
Investors seek refuges from credit storms
By John Authers, Francesco Guerrera and Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: July 20 2007 19:32 | Last updated: July 20 2007 19:32
World markets saw a sharp “flight to quality” on Friday as credit concerns prompted traders to sell equities and buy into safe havens such as government bonds and gold.
The S&P 500 was down 1.3 per cent at midday in New York, a day after hitting an all-time high, while the dollar fell to its lowest level against a trade-weighted index of currencies since 1992.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3df8137c-36ee-11dc-9f6d-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=d355f29c-d238-11db-a7c0-000b5df10621.html
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Here is a dated but nonetheless highly pertinent piece from Fleck…
Contrarian Chronicles
2/26/2007 12:00 AM ET
Subprime housing game is over
What’s remarkable is that Wall Street was surprised by the implosions of lenders NovaStar Financial and New Century Financial. What we don’t know is how quickly this mess will impact the economy.
By Bill Fleckenstein
Why does the stock market at large seem not to care about the many problems that exist? My best explanation is this: The stock market, which is normally thought of as a discounting mechanism, doesn’t work that way at the moment.
For the better part of at least six months, and perhaps nine, it has traded more like a price-discovery market (think voting machine). That’s how commodities such as wheat and corn trade — they just get pushed from one price to another. Daily reactions are almost totally to price, although fundamentals are loosely correlated.
Everyone has grown up thinking that the stock market discounts, meaning it anticipates a company’s operational performance and prices a stock accordingly. The market has done so in the past, and it will again.
But for now, it discounts next to nothing. Witness the huge gaps seen recently in the subprime sector, where problems seem to have arisen out of the blue — although they have been easily foreseeable, as I have been chronicling in this column. When the market reverts to discounting and ceases to be the price-discovery animal it is today, there will be a tremendous amount of violence on the downside.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/SubprimeHousingGameIsOver.aspx
Finger Lakes, ugh…
http://tinyurl.com/2hnvgy
“Out-of-town buyers now make up the majority of transactions on Seneca, Keuka and Canandaigua lakes, he said, noting that fewer than 10 percent of his buyers are from western New York.”
I just don’t get it. Everywhere, everybody talks about out-of-town buyers, Calif. equity locusts, etc. coming in and driving up the prices. I mean EVERYWHERE!! Even places like Kansas. So where are these people all coming from - there must be millions and millions of them… Something does not compute. Anyone out there noticing huge gaps of population, cities disappearing, that sort of thing?
Wow! Seeing as our lake is situated about an hour down the road, I’m choking on those low…yes low tax bills. Lakefront tax bills here are double those figures. Maybe that’s another reason for the increased numbers there. Adirondacks and lakes east are already out of reach.
You must be talking about Skaneateles! It also just occurred to me that I think we know each other: you live in Virginia and we got together at your mom’s place earlier this year in Florida. Sound familiar?
Small world here on the internets!
(No real names, please!)
Further east Muggy.
Sorry, I don’t live in VA either-although I do have a parent there. I live here year round. But I’m originally a New England girl so you’ll see me post a lot about those states.
It’s funny to sometimes seem parallels in some of the posters w/people we know. For a while I was almost certain janninfl (sp?) was my cousin. At another point there was a poster from a western state that I think shares a parallel life with my brother. LOL
Crisp & cole rips people off on the lease-to-own program:
http://www.bakersfield.com/hourly_news/story/194580.html
defaults now stand at $41 million dollars
One more instance of why it may be wise to bring a tape recorder to meetings with realtors!
He is so going to prison.
For the renters who thought they were buying, this may be blessing in disguise. They are off the hook on a declining assett.
They may be able to buy it back from the bank (or whoever is the papertrail owner in the CDO mess).
DUH ! Those pesky new requirements for down payments.
“We were told 100 percent of what we paid — our rent — would go to our down payment,” Carpentiero said. They paid $1,600 a month.
And they believed that? Come on that has to be just BS. Even the person who said 75% of their payment would go to down money should have known better. I am skeptical.
Bats invade Vancouver condo, law prevents owners from moving them.
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=526d8c3b-c99f-4be5-8d6a-381dce7b2893&k=49820
Amazing how the govt & pest control people don’t seem to understand the plight of these poor people!
Foreclosures triple in Highland Park, IL. Highland Park is one of the wealthiest suburbs in Chicago (Michael Jordan lives there).
http://www.chicagotribune.com/services/newspaper/premium/printedition/Sunday/chi-sun_highend_0722jul22,0,3556083.story
Be like Mike (have enough wherewithal to not get foreclosed on)
A foreclosure in Lake Forest? That must violate a rule of nature or something.
Illegals hired for $10, state says pay them $40
New York Department of Labor cracks down on village official employing aliens for cash
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56788
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Man, I just heard Lending Tree’s new commercial. They were playing that rock song with the lyrics of “one thing leads to another” and warning about ARM’s resetting.
They want you refinance your toxic ARM so it “doesn’t get out of hand,” while get this “rates are CLOSE to historic lows.”
Notice the word “CLOSE” now being used? I wonder if somebody sued their retarded butts?
Di-Tech’s new jingle “People are smart”.
Throwing in the towel in new york…. All the houses i would be interested in buying here in Suffolk County were bought in the last few years in the 300’s…. they are ALL now listed in the 600k’s. Screw this… how are people supposed to buy homes? such a load of crap. -liz
They will be coming back to reality. Just give it time. Down payments and real lending standards will kill Long Island just like so many other places.
Be patience. And, take a look at PropertyShark.com when you have a chance. PropertyShark has some excellent trend reports, showing the median per neighborhood, per year for the last 10 years. With this tool, you can clearly see the runup (2004-2005), leveling off (2006-2007) and (soon) decline (2008-?).
Seeing the macro-trend by neighborhood drives it home that in any given neighborhood, those purchasing between 2005 and later are hurting financially compared to their neighbors.
It’s interesting how many people I meet around my upstate town that own out-of-state companies. Apparently the people are savvy enough to start and maintain their own companies yet need to remain beyond the reach of the NY state tax codes. They chose to live here anyway.
There are also a lot of people living off trust funds or some form of inherited wealth in this area. I sometimes think certain Upstate towns are going to revert back to their original positions as playgrounds for the wealthy as they were at the turn of the 20th century. Course, as a member of the middle class…I’m not sure where that leaves me and my family.
Anybody know how Jeff at SDCIA has been doing lately?
Speaking of SDCIA Robert Cambell spoke a couple weeks ago and I missed it. (Just forgot - been busy lately.) Did anyone attend? Any new information on where he thinks we stand in the bubble deflation or how long we have left to go? It looks like they are a couple months behind posting the meeting recordings so I will have to wait to listen and any info would be appreciated.
Thanks!
What ever happened to Seattle Eric? His blog seems to have gone away…
The “thong babes” have expanded from selling wienies to mowing lawns. I wonder, do they wear spike heels, flip flops or birkenstocks?
When I lived in Escondido there was a shapely divorced chick across the street who mowed her front lawn wearing a bikini.
This might be a good job for desperate realwhores. they could kill three birds with one stone. Hold an open house in their new uniform. This would at least increase the lookie-loos. Thong babe as sign flipper. Don’t even need the sign. Finally, the grass in the unoccupied house gets cut.
The phrase “where the sun don’t shine” needs to be changed.
I wouldnt get near a realwhore(brings new meaning to this word) *eek*
Maybe she is really a realwhore who is trying to sell the houses in the general area to dirty old men such as myself who have high hopes?
Update from the central coast…
Two years ago, 1900 sq. ft. homes in a nice area of Arroyo Grande (a city over from Pismo Beach) were going for the mid $700Ks…now there is a nice one with new carpet, paint, and closet accessories with a listing price of $579K.
Do an article on the effects of depressed real estate prices in relationship to the dependency of local and state governments on property taxes. If cities in Florida and California have increased spending to take in their new wealth based on appreciating property, they’re going to be in big trouble as those properties start slipping in value.
http://www.ksee24.com/Story.aspx?preview=&type=ln&NStoryID=7166
javascript:popUp(’/video/Video.aspx?stype=ln&sTitle=Foreclosure crisis puts strain on real estate market&clip=housing&storyID=7166′)