The Housing Bubble

MarketWatch reports on Texas. “Executives at (Texas-based) Centex Corp. on Wednesday didn’t provide a profit outlook for the rest of the year as the industry continues to struggle with an uncertain housing market. ‘We know that challenges will persist for awhile,’ CEO Tim Eller said. ‘Most markets continue to be hampered by oversupply, and we expect widespread affordability issues to be a problem for some time to come.”

“The company’s Texas market is being hit by declines in mortgage liquidity, Eller said, adding that in Houston the company’s sales were down about 30% while a year ago they were ‘fairly robust.’”

The Houston Chronicle from Texas. “Houston-area home sales continued their downward slide in June, falling for the second month in a row and the third this year. Single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent last month from June 2006, as tighter restrictions in the subprime lending industry continued to drag down the local market, according to the Houston Association of Realtors.”

“Over the past year, the number of homes listed for sale has been mounting, and some properties are taking a long time to sell, particularly in the suburbs where new houses compete with older ones for buyers.”

“Jennifer and Kyle Hawes put their five-bedroom Pearland home on the market May 1 and are now considering dropping the $209,000 asking price on the 10-year-old property.”

“‘We’ve seen eight families come through, but no offers,’ said Jennifer Hawes. Close to where they live, ‘you can get a new house for probably not much more than ours,’ she said.”

“Home builders are also feeling the pinch. Sales of new homes fell 19 percent in June from the same month last year, according to Metrostudy.”

“And more homes are on the market now than last year at this time. At the end of June, 37,236 single-family properties were listed for sale, an increase of 18.6 percent from last June and the 12th month with a year-over-year increase.”

The American Statesman from Texas. “Sales of existing homes in June in Central Texas fell 6 percent from a year earlier, the first decline for the month since 2002, the Austin Board of Realtors said Friday.”

“‘It’s a natural correction of the market based on tightening credit standards’ that lenders are imposing on potential buyers, said Mark Sprague, a partner in marketing firm Residential Strategies Inc.”

“After the record sales of 2006, a decline in sales for 2007 would not be a surprise, Sprague said.”

“‘Austin has experienced record-breaking growth in home sales for the past four years,’ Charles Porter, chairman of the Realtors board, said in a statement. ‘Overall, the Central Texas housing market has been resilient and continues to be one of the best investments money can buy.’”

“A total of 9,159 homes were on the market last month, 8 percent more than in June 2006 and the biggest number in several years.”

From KHOU.com in Texas. “A charred, gutted home on a small street of foreclosed homes in Spring is more than just an empty dwelling, it’s a sign of a disturbing new pattern in mortgage fraud.”

“Explosions rocked the 7,000 square foot building Sunday afternoon when the owner was in the Bahamas. The Fire Marshal said there were 25 five-gallon containers of gasoline stashed all over the home that were ignited simultaneously.”

“The blaze came less than three weeks before $30,000 in property taxes were due. The owner of the home, Michael Macomber, posted $90,000 bond and was released from custody Monday.”

“Investigators said he confessed to everything, for he was the one left holding the bag when a $500,000 mortgage fraud ring unraveled around him.” “The previous owner, Arthur Monroe, was charged with falsely doubling the home’s value, selling it to Macomber and then paying him a kickback.”

“So far, seven people are facing charges for the complex scheme involving multiple homes, mortgage fraud, insurance fraud and fire, something arson investigators said they’re coming across more often than ever.”

“Federal investigators are getting involved too, because they believe the title company linked to the scheme may have been in on it as well.”

USA Today reports from Louisiana. “In working-class areas here, homes for sale have begun to move briskly. But in the ritzy Uptown district and other well-to-do neighborhoods, the picture is bleaker. ‘New Price’ and ‘Reduced’ signs adjoin grand Victorian homes — symbols of a struggling upscale housing market.”

“In New Orleans, sellers have begun dangling unusual sweeteners, in some cases, a year’s worth of home insurance premiums and state grant money, to draw buyers. Insurance rates, which have as much as tripled since Katrina, are deflating sales and forcing some to downsize to smaller homes.”

“In a healthy real estate environment here, an average supply of homes for sale might be five months’ worth, says Arthur Sterbcow, president of a major real estate agency on the Gulf Coast. Now, the New Orleans metro area contains nearly twice that supply of homes for sale.”

“The costlier the homes, the thicker the glut. The area includes a 10-month inventory of homes priced from $300,000 to $325,000. That compares with a 23-month supply of homes priced from $750,000 to $1 million.”

“‘There are more homes on the market now than when there was an oil bust,’ Sterbcow says.”

“Rodney Montz, an advertising executive, is among those thinking of leaving. One nagging concern that has kept Montz here, at least for now, is fear that he won’t be able to fetch a decent price for his 2,700-square-foot house, which he spent four years renovating himself.”

“A real estate agent has suggested that he put it on the market for $675,000, about 20% less than what he was told his house was worth a year ago.”

“But the earlier, higher price quote came soon after Katrina, when those whose homes had been damaged were hustling to find other housing. ‘There was a sort of urgency to buy anything that was standing and livable,’ says Lawrence Yun, a senior economist with the National Association of Realtors.”

“In the fourth quarter of 2005, displaced residents bid up median prices by 27% in the New Orleans area, the NAR says. But as sellers have increasingly outnumbered buyers, prices have been depressed for months. In the first quarter of 2007, the median plunged 10.9% from the same period last year, to $155,900.”

“Real estate prices have…started to fall in places such as Pass Christian, Miss., amid a swollen inventory.”

“In Mississippi, agents blame a drop in vacation-home sales, in part, for the glut of upscale homes in the Gulfport-Biloxi area. ‘In addition to fewer people living and working here, we’re seeing less snowbirds’ buying second homes, says Jim Atchison of the Gulf Coast Association of Realtors.”

“A weak real estate market benefits buyers such as Melissa Carpenter, who can wait as long as they need to find a suitable home. She and her husband want to pay no more than $300,000 for a four-bedroom house, have been pleasantly surprised by what they’ve seen in their price range.”

“‘There are houses everywhere you look,’ Carpenter notes.”