Cruising Down From The Peak In Florida
The Florida realtors report on June sales. “Despite favorable mortgage interest rates, strong job growth and other positive economic conditions, statewide sales of existing single-family homes in Florida totaled 12,954 in June and were closer to activity levels in June 2002, prior to the housing boom years, than June 2006 figures when 18,607 homes sold for a 30 percent decrease in the year-to-year comparison, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes last month was $243,200; a year ago, it was $256,200 for a 5 percent decrease.”
“The Sarasota-Bradenton MSA reported the median sales price for homes was $292,700; it was $326,800 in June 2006 for a 10 percent decrease. The existing condo median sales price in June was $256,300; a year ago, it was $287,500 for an 11 percent decrease.”
“‘Several factors are influencing the market in the Sarasota-Bradenton area,’ says May Aston, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors. ‘Inventory is plentiful, and sellers have adjusted their price expectations, which helps make homes more affordable again.’”
The Sun Sentinel. “Breathe deeply, hot-under-the-collar home sellers. South Florida’s housing slump continued in June, hitting the 18-month mark. Analysts who had predicted improvement this year now are pointing to the second half of 2008 or later.”
“Sales of existing homes in Broward County tumbled 22 percent last month, to 674 from 861, FAR said Wednesday.”
“Many sellers are finding interest to be tepid, even as they cut prices. June Bechthold and Allan Sacks have been trying to sell their two-bedroom home near the water in Deerfield Beach since January. They originally asked $434,900 but have since dropped the price to what they hope is an eye-catching $387,387.”
“The couple has had only one offer, and it was too low. ‘We’re not trying to get top dollar,’ said Bechthold. ‘We’re just going to hang in there.’”
“The number of homes and condominiums for sale in Broward has stabilized recently at about 47,000, according to Keyes Co. That figure still is more than triple the number from two years ago.”
“Meanwhile, the existing condo market took a hit in June. Sales plummeted 35 percent, to 595 from 910 a year ago. The median price fell $18,200, to $194,100 from $212,300. Existing condos in Broward may have been hurt by the deals developers are giving buyers of new units, analysts say.”
The Miami Herald. “South Florida homes continue to sit on the market, waiting for buyers, while more and more are being put up for sale. Market watchers cautioned prices can’t hold much longer given stagnant sales and ballooning inventory.”
“‘We are at the early to middle stage of the market correction,’ said economist J. Antonio Villamil of the Washington Economics Group. ‘The thing that moves initially is sales volume decline and inventory increasing. Eventually, prices will move down too.’”
“‘It’ll be a couple-year process,’ he said. ‘For those caught on the wrong side of this, there will be blood n the floor.’”
“For now, the median price of a single-family house in June was $371,600 in Miami-Dade, a drop of 2 percent from June 2006 and 7 percent from May.”
“Reflecting the lack of sales, the inventory of unsold homes continued rising. Owners of more than 77,000 single-family houses and condos have listed properties for sale. A year ago that number was just over 50,000.”
“Jack Winston of Miami’s Goodkin Consulting said he surveyed downtown Miami’s condo market and concluded the market will need five to seven years to digest all of the units under construction and be ready for new development.”
“‘Right now, people selling homes still have not adjusted their thinking to what the reality is. The sooner prices start to come down, the sooner this market returns,’ said Winston.”
The News Press. “Sales of existing single-family homes in Lee County are down 37 percent for the first six months of 2007 compared to the same period a year ago.”
“The number of sales could pick up if more prospective sellers would lower their prices to match the market, said Trae Zipperer, an agent in Fort Myers who specializes in waterfront homes.”
“‘We are still seeing a significant gap between sellers’ expectations of value and where the market actually is,’ Zipperer said. ‘The values are what they are and as long as the seller can come to grips with that, there are buyers who are looking to be in this market.’”
“Fort Myers resident Lisa Norman, a first-time home buyer who had been scanning listings for property for her mother, paid about $150,000 for a two-bedroom unit that had sold for about $243,000 in November 2005. ‘I just kind of walked into it,’ Norman said.”
“The Realtor who handled the transaction, Fiona Finn in Fort Myers, said buyers are there if sellers are really looking to sell at a competitive price. Owners who hoped for a quick sale for big profits are pulling properties off the market, she said. ‘I think we are seeing a weeding out of overpriced homes,’ Finn said.”
“Peggy Hummel, CEO of the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, said the association’s statistics show 11,916 single family homes currently listed. In Charlotte County, prices were down 10 percent from $222,300 to $199,000 and sales were off 33 percent from 323 to 218.”
The Naples News. “‘There’s been a big drop, sure, but we’re still cruising down from the peak year of 2005, so the figures are a bit skewed,’ said Robert Konst, broker in Fort Myers. ‘The percentages themselves are skewed. The history of real estate in Florida was forever changed in 2005, so we’re going to see the numbers keep dropping off year after year until 2005 is far enough away that it no longer plays a part.’”
“‘What we’re seeing is a stabilizing of the market,’ he said. ‘It’s actually steadying and the numbers are becoming more realistic. The numbers were dramatically skewed going up, and they’re going to be dramatically skewed going down.’”
“Jerry Mosely, general manager of Barbee and Son Inc. in Fort Myers, agrees. ‘Personally, I feel like the market’s leveling out nicely,’ he said. ‘It’s going to drop little by little until we get away from the outrageous price increases we’ve seen over the past several years, but after that it’s going to be just fine.’”
“‘Developers are substantially cutting prices now, and they’re also increasing their commissions to the Realtors,’ he said. ‘They’re really doing everything they can to entice the buyers back.’”
From Florida Today. “The median resale price for single-family homes sold by Realtors in Brevard County was $198,000 in June, down $34,800 from June 2006, FAR reported Wednesday. That’s a 15 percent drop, the largest year-over-year percentage decrease in any of the 20 Florida metropolitan areas tracked by the association.”
“The number of single-family homes sold by Realtors in Brevard County fell 21 percent, compared with June 2006.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Orlando Realtors reported their June sales numbers earlier this month, down 43 percent year-over-year in the four-county metro area, Orange, Seminole, Lake and Osceola counties.”
“‘A lot of this is just psychology,’ said Mike Kelley, sales manager in the Orlando office of HomeBanc Mortgage Corp, of the sales slowdown. ‘People are concerned and kind of sitting on the fence.’”
“But if buyers wait to see whether prices continue to fall, Kelley said, it could cost them because mortgage interest rates have been creeping up and the value of their own home for sale could continue to slide.”
“HomeBanc Corp., the Atlanta-based parent of HomeBanc Mortgage, said in its first-quarter report that it lost $23.8 million, down from a $500,000 profit in the same period a year ago. The mortgage company’s mortgage loan originations fell 13 percent when compared with the same quarter in 2006, and the rate of decline for its Florida loans was almost twice as steep, 25 percent.”
The News Journal. “Existing-home sales in Volusia and Flagler counties fell 29 percent in June compared with the same month a year ago, with the median sales price dropping 10 percent over the same period to $197,100, the FAR reported.”
“‘It’s a tough market and I’m feeling it firsthand,’ said Terri Ossi, who has been trying to sell her Ormond Beach house for several months. She has dropped her asking price from $349,000 to $335,000. ‘Someone asked me what I was going to do if I don’t sell my house,’ she said. ‘I’ll pay the mortgage. What else can you do?’”
“‘We are close to where the market was a few years ago and there’s a continued downward pressure on the prices to bring them back down to a reasonable level,’ said Mark Dougherty, executive director of the Daytona Beach Area Association of Realtors. ‘It’s a great time to buy.’”
The Palm Beach Post. “Single-family home sales in Palm Beach County plunged 19 percent in June, to 764 from 947 a year ago, the FAR said. The median price fell 7 percent, to $377,900 from $405,500 in June 2006, the associaton said.”
“In the Treasure Coast, single-family home sales in June fell 38 percent, to 316 from 513 in June 2006, FAR said. The median price of a single-family home fell 8 percent, to $237,100 from $257,500 a year ago, FAR said.”
“In Palm Beach County, sales of existing single-family homes fell 19 percent when compared with June 2006, and the median price took a tumble to $377,900 from $405,500. It was the first significant drop, 7 percent, in home prices since the market started cooling off from its unprecedented run-up two years ago.”
“The median price of an existing single-family home in Martin and St. Lucie counties fell 8 percent as sellers realized they needed to lower prices to see the sales close. The median price fell to $237,100 from $257,500.”
“‘We’re seeing a market that has been cut in half in sales and quadrupled in inventory,’ said Jack McCabe, president of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach. ‘We haven’t reached bottom yet, not by a long shot.’”
“The decline in housing prices in the Treasure Coast follows the dramatic run-up two years ago, when speculators grabbed everything on the market.”
“‘We’ve seen the highest run-up in inflated values,’ McCabe said. ‘We have in the Treasure Coast - and across the country - the highest historical inventory for existing homes, new homes, single-family and multifamily.’”
From TC Palm. “The association said members in the Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA, which includes Stuart, sold 316 existing single-family homes in June, down 38 percent from the 513 purchased by home buyers a year earlier. The median price for an existing single-family home in the area dropped 8 percent, to $237,100, in June compared with $257,500 during the same period last year.”
“‘We’ve reached a plateau and for the prices to only drop 8 percent, I see that as reasonable,’ said Don Santos, past president of the Treasure Coast Builders Association. ‘The exuberance of 2005 has died down. And being down 38 percent isn’t so bad because in the past we’ve seen sales drop 40 or 50 percent in some cases.’”
“The West Palm Beach-Boca Raton area saw 764 sales of existing homes, down 19 percent from the 947 recorded during the same period last year. Prices dropped 7 percent to $377,900 from $405,500 last year.”
“Home sales in the Melbourne-Palm Bay area decreased 21 percent from 629 to 497 units sold. The median sales price declined 15 percent to $198,000 from the $232,800 recorded during the same period last year.”
“Jennifer Atkisson-Lovett, president of the Realtors Association of Martin County, described the report as a positive sign for the local housing market. ‘We were pleased to see that Martin County fared much better than the state and (Treasure Coast) MSA,’ said Atkisson-Lovett.”
“‘We’re seeing a market that has been cut in half in sales and quadrupled in inventory,’ said Jack McCabe, president of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach. ‘We haven’t reached bottom yet, not by a long shot.’”
Jack, you fianally hit the nail right on the head!
Let us always remember that the sales figures include houses bought at foreclosure:
Posted at indexcalls.com:
“Factoid - lenders buying back their repos at foreclosure sales count as “existing home sales”. A year ago it was not really much of a factor. Today I would guess based on the scattered data I read it is probable that the number of foreclosure “resales” is at least 10% of the market - that would be like 500,000 annualized.”
If the poster is right about the national market, one can reasonably conclude that it is higher in FL. Maybe 20% or more??
“…one can reasonably conclude that it is higher in FL. Maybe 20% or more??”
If the poster is correct that would be reasonable. I don’t believe that it is correct though. Anyone with some insight on this one?
I thought that existing home sales are reported by the NAR based on signed contracts? If that’s true, I doubt it would include foreclosures. OTOH, nobody believes the NAR, they’re about as trustworthy as the AG.
You have to have a signed contract in a foreclosure, however it may not be listed with a realtor or in the MLS, so unless someone does courthouse records searches, the foreclosures don’t always get counted in the sales figures.
With a market cut in half, why aren’t the unemployment numbers higher? Are self employed independent contractors counted when the lose their job? Are they allowed to apply for unemployment, even though they know they won’t be able to collect? Is the only way for them to be counted as unemployed, is to apply for unemployment? Can they simply go on line and apply for unemployment, just so the can be counted? So many questions. Can somebody help me?
“Are self employed independent contractors counted when the lose their job?”
No but remodel jobs aren’t going anywhere. Sellers are doing whatever it takes (short of asking a reasonable price) to make their homes marketable. All of those new construction jobs lost are remodel construction job gains.
Self employed people do not pay unemployement taxes on themselves, so they can’t collect unemployment. They never show up in the figures.
This is NOT true You can pay your own unemployment taxes, and collect if you are unemployerd or close your business..
But very few self employed people even know they can do this.
martin county is so small, it is a dot on the road. what a positive sign coming out of staurt and indiantown!
According to Antonio Villamil of the Washington Economics Group.
1 -‘The thing that moves initially is sales volume decline
2 - and inventory increasing
3 - Eventually, prices will move down too.’”
4 - It’ll be a couple-year process
5 - ‘For those caught on the wrong side of this, there will be blood n the floor.
“5 - ‘For those caught on the wrong side of this, there will be blood n the floor…”
There already is…especially here in Palm Beach County. There are FB’s all over that bought to flip in 2005 and still have the bag in hand. I know one man who purchased a home at $499K from the builder in 2005, it was completed in 2006 and today MIGHT sell for $360K. That’s a $140K hit.
Anyone want to guess how it was financed?
20% hard saved earnings - Remainder on a 30-year fixed?
Bwahaha….
I know another who paid $440k and no one wants it for $350k. Oh he spent more on top of the $440k for upgrades(granite, marble) My dad says it aren’t even worth $250k. Ouch.
Let the bodies hit the floor…….. WHHHHHHHOOOOOSSSSSHHHHH
Need advice re: house sale in Miami
Friend must sell (divorce). Bought 2 years ago, put in $100K of renovation. Priced at $550K, have $450K mortgage. 2 blocks from beach. Very nice yard, smallish house, 2 bd 2 ba, excellent condition. House has been on market for 3 months, with only one showing.
What should they do?
Thanks for you advice.
“House has been on market for 3 months, with only one showing.”
Price at $499K and hope for asking price. If not, contact the mortgage company to see if they’ll authorize a short sale and keep dropping.
If no one is looking at your home your price is off at least 10%.3 months and 1 showing probably fits into this catergory.The longer it sits on the market the more buyers think the house has problems.Do not get greedy and price it accordingly.
$550K two blocks from the beach? Raise the price to $1.2 million.
Drop the price to the ABSOLUTE minimum they’d take before letting the bank foreclose. If offers, take the best. If no offers, let the bank have it.
Drop the price to the ABSOLUTE minimum they’d take before letting the bank foreclose. If offers, take the best. If no offers, let the bank have it.
How do you “let the bank have it”? Won’t the bank foreclose, buy the house on the steps, sell the house at a low price, and come after the debtor for the difference plus fees? If that’s true, wouldn’t you rather wait until you can scrape together enough money to pay the loan down to market price? If my understanding is right, you’re going to have to pay one way or the other.
Lower the price. Next!
cut the price, every week until it sells.
difficult for a HBBer to comprehend?
Bury a statue of St Joseph’s in the front yard? Pray to Allah? Personally, it sounds like their ability to get out above water may be slim.
Don’t get divorced?
Alternatively, get divorced but continue to live in the house and film a reality show. Call it, “Roommates”. Have ex-spouses go on blind-dates together, etc. Take money from filming of show and leave country with cash.
Turn it into a brothel.
No way he gets out with a loss. Get a sneaky lawyer to get the husbands name off the loan and deed papers. Then let the wife take the hit on a bad RE loss.
It seems to work for the Crisp’s family
They should make sure they have property insurance and then burn the house down.
Just kidding : )… They should drop the price and / or get the bank to take a short sale.
There’s no beach in Miami. Is this Miami Beach? Actually sounds reasonably cheap for SFH two blocks from beach anywhere in Miami-Dade. (Or is that just two blocks from some nameless water?) Nearest non-expensive SFHs I can think of two blocks from beach would be in N. Miami Beach/Surfside. Perhaps Hollywood-Hallandale area?
They put the house on the market at the worst time of the year, notwithstanding the downturn. There’s no easy answer - SURPRISE: houses are not normally particularly liquid assets.
Offer 49k cash back at closing? lol
Just sign over his share to the wife.NO KIDDING……there is not much equity in the house..so let the bimbo get stuck with the bills….
LOL I like that. Transfer the problem to the mean wife. After all, she was probably the one who said buy, buy, buy!
Got wife? Not me. Never!
1)If working with realtor..always NEG on the commission side..
2)Lower the price to at the lowest to get you out of the home with credit intact..
3)Dead months ahead for buying..but winter tourist season will soon approach..if they can’t sell it offer it for the winter season as weekly rental to cover cost until next year…don’t be greedy on rental charge as their is overabundance of rental right now as well..
$100K of renovations on a smallish 2br/2b? Wow. That’s where the loss on this thing is coming from, imo.
I’d be interested in seeing the ad for this place: Should be a big emphasis on proximity to the beach and the pristine condition. Pictures, pictures, pictures (I assume that with $100K in renovations the place looks immaculate) And, of course, as others have said, the price must be relatively in-line with similar properties, regardless of what the owner has put into it.
Yet another over-eager flipper gone crazy… $100K work on a 2 bedroom home?? No wonder they’re divorcing.
My advice… lower the price 5% every week until it sells. And take the first offer you get!
Thanks for all of the comments/advice so far…keep them coming! I don’t know much about the house as I have not been there and I don’t know the exact location. I will find out more and post this info later on in the week. These people are not “flippers”. This is the first house my friend ever bought in her life, at age 40 (she has owned a condo before in S.A.). They both have good jobs — but neither can cover the mortgage payment alone so neither can buy the other out. My friend is the woman, by the way, and she is not a bimbo. They thought they were settling down in the american dream…but the relationship didn’t work out.
Sarcasm aside, the best strategy is to price the house 10% below the most recent comps. It’ll move right away.
Bury the biggest St. Joesph statue they can find. Consult with a BK attorney.
“‘A lot of this is just psychology,’ said Mike Kelley, sales manager in the Orlando office of HomeBanc Mortgage Corp, of the sales slowdown.”
Funny how it’s psychology when prices are declining, but it’s fundamentals when prices are increasing.
“‘We are close to where the market was a few years ago and there’s a continued downward pressure on the prices to bring them back down to a reasonable level,’ said Mark Dougherty, executive director of the Daytona Beach Area Association of Realtors. ‘It’s a great time to buy.’”
Gotta love the realtors. Prices are dropping fast, but it’s a great time to buy.
May Aston, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors. ‘Inventory is plentiful, and sellers have adjusted their price expectations, which helps make homes more affordable again.’
Nope, buyers have adjusted their price expectations, which is why sellers have to settle for less. Buyers determine RE prices, not sellers. Because somebody always has to sell, but nobody has to buy.
Agree 100%.
It’s a waiting game that the seller will lose, every single time… I live in AL, supposibly not a bubbly state (Suzanne said it!!), and you see inventory piling up every week.
Buyers can wait, sellers can’t… just wait until the summer is over. I predict arson will be the new national hobby.
Actually, it’s a great time to short.
No koolaid drinker Mike Kelly, all of this is reality.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIQaQn722QU
In orlando they are getting ready to approve a $1.1 billion 3-venue deal that would build a Performing arts center, a new Arena, and a facelift of the Citrus Bowl…Any ideas if this will be good or bad for the housing market in Orlando??? It may offset some of the constuction jobs that have been lost from the housing slump, but could end up costing the city/county and taxpayers a lot of money if the economy tanks and tourists stop coming which pay the taxes that are suppose to be used to build these facilities…I’ve read so much spin on this venue plan I am not sure if I want them or not???any opinions???
mike
Mike,
It won’t improve the housing market but will probably stop the bleeding a little bit. Those that lost residential construction jobs will hold on a little longer if they know they have work available to them.
Probably won’t help the tourist industry much. I’ ve gotten several emails from Disney offering greatly discounted prices on hotel rooms starting Aug 1st. August is a big vacation month for northerners before the kids go back to school. They must be hurting if they aren’t booked already.
As a tourism researcher I can tell you that tourism trails off quickly starting the last week of July in Florida. Even though some schools don’t go back until after labor day, some start the first week of August. Also most families have already taken their summer vacation by then as they have back-to-school activities and fall sports training normally begins in August. That is why for years Disney has done their best package deals in Aug & Sept.
“‘A lot of this is just psychology,’ said Mike Kelley, sales manager in the Orlando office of HomeBanc Mortgage Corp, of the sales slowdown.”
I suppose it’s just psychological when a mortgage company asks you to document things for your no documentation mortgage MONTHS AFTER CLOSING too isn’t it Mr. Kelley? Maybe the company is worried about holding the bag and wants to make the loan more attractive to the next company.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/25/AR2007072502436_pf.html
Weakness in the housing market “will get materially more severe,” Richard F. Syron, chairman and chief executive of Freddie Mac, said yesterday. The government-sponsored mortgage-funding company based in McLean holds about $712 billion of mortgage-related investments.
Freddie Mac is relatively insulated from the subprime segment of the mortgage market, but it has funded unconventional loans such as those on which borrowers pay only interest for a time instead of paying down the principal. At the margins, problems have been creeping from the weaker segments of the market into the stronger ones, Syron said.
“Housing prices will go down,” he said. The result will not be “catastrophic,” he said, “but it will have a measurable impact on how people spend money. It will have a material impact on how people spend on cars, how they spend on consumer appliances, how they spend on lots of things.”
It may not be catastrophic to the majority of homeowners around the country - but, it will be for anyone who reaaaaally streched to buy more home than they really could afford, or anyone who quit their job or used their life’s savings to get into “flipping” or anyone who bought into a neighborhood that is turning into a ghost town.
Food, prescriptions, utilities.
“But if buyers wait to see whether prices continue to fall, Kelley said, it could cost them because mortgage interest rates have been creeping up
I don’t know about that. I would rather buy the house for less at a higher interest rate and refinance later when rates do drop. As rates go up, housing prices must go down for those to afford the payment.
Not to mention I use less of my hard earned savings to put 20% down on a lower priced house. I’ll have extra left over to furnish the place! Imagine that. (Can’t tell you how many big houses I see that have very little furniture in them.)
What it’ll cost buyers is maybe another year’s rent. In the meantime they haven’t bought a depreciating asset and lost all their hard earned savings.
New homes sold at an annual pace of 834,000 in the month, down 6.6 percent from the revised 893,000 rate in May.
When they mention this revised number is it safe to assume it was revised lower???and is it safe to say the number announced for this month will be revised lower???
When I was in Palm Beach Gardens in February I saw a nice 4 bedroom, 4 bath, 2 car garage house on the golf course in Ibis. The asking price was $399,000 and had been purchased to flip and been sitting vacant for over a year and a half. I just saw the house finally sold for $350,000.
I am guessing with the number of properties for sale down there they will continue to drop further.
The place I would really want to buy is Mirasol, right now the cheapest houses are in the $550,000 - $650,000 range. Hopefully they will fall back to the $400,000 range in the next 18 months.
I saw many vacant houses there last week, either the builder had just completed them or they were purchased to flip.
“The place I would really want to buy is Mirasol…”
Maybe you’ll be Vanilla Ice’s neighbor!!!
Does he really live there? I stayed there at a friend’s place and did not see him.
“Does he really live there?”
Yes
Bad Andy, I searched the land records in his real name Robert Van Winkle, but could not find anything.
The house may be owned by a trust.
“I searched the land records in his real name Robert Van Winkle”
It is in a trust. I won’t put it out there but you can bank on it. Judge Judy owns in Palm Beach County as well…won’t find that on PAPA either.
he lives in wellington, fl communit name is versailles
If you’re looking to pay $400K on a $550K place — MAKE OFFERS NOW. You’ll get call backs in less than 18 months. I predict 0-6 months.
You’ll get call backs in less than 18 months.
At which point you change your offer to $350K.
Exactly right!
I predict you’ll get a call by the end of summer.
I wouldnt leave a phone number that you want to keep private as they will call you every 10 minutes on the way down to yer price.
I always refuse to give my active phone number out … like at Lowes, Toyota Dealer, Cable Co. pretty much any big business as, depsite what the clerks blather about ” we dont telemarket ” , they all do anyway. No one calls you with good news anyway, its 99.99% to sell something. Of course my heart skips a beat the few times the school calls on my private cell number, which does get answered right away.
It’s always amusing watching/listening to the company rep as they go down their verification script (if I need to contact THEM), looking for my phone #, then a puzzled ,,, ” duhhh” emits as the poor gen x/y person goes into a brain loop about ” no phone number , now what ?”
It’s just inconceivable to them that anyone would NOT just hand over a phone #, like I’m some sort of anti-christ. Then as we talk more, after the initial transaction, a lightbulb goes on, they realize they CAN be an individual and NOT just blindly follow the system …an admit they wish they had less telemarketing calls and maybe its a good idea ,.. heh heh !
Just an extended observation on the topic (rant off ?)
“I wouldnt leave a phone number that you want to keep private as they will call you every 10 minutes on the way down to yer price.”
Tell them the offer is firm, and goes down by 5k every time they call before that price is met.
James
remind me to keep a catchers mitt handy for that hardball game you play ….. good idea …. damn good idea !!!
I always say the phone is unlisted. They usually drop it.
“The place I would really want to buy is Mirasol, right now the cheapest houses are in the $550,000 - $650,000 range. Hopefully they will fall back to the $400,000 range in the next 18 months.”
$400k is still a ripoff. And you have insane property taxes, insurance and HOA to contend with. Don’t catch the falling knife. Bad deal!!!!!!!!
But, but, but, but, but… prices never go down!!
Ahhh, the kool-aid is finally running out.
I get so sick of hearing about “strong economic growth” especially jobs. For most of this year the majority of jobs have been “created” by a statistical adjustment, not the actual economy. Since April, all reported job gains have come from the BLS’ birth/death model. The household survey, which samples employees, rather than employers confirms the weakness. The model has assumed nearly 200,000 construction jobs into existence since January. If you’re wondering about the puzzling lack of job losses in construction you need look no further than the BLS and their statistical monkey business.
With all this monkey business by Govt agencies that are supposed to provide a true picture fooled the public. No wonder, so-called experts are being hit by nasty surprises every day.
Today’s reports say that the sales of new homes fell in June by the largest amount in five months. I heard one “RE expert” saying on the radio that this is the worst downturn in more than a decade and that everyone is surprised by the severity of the decline.
I’d say that ‘everyone’ on this blog knew what was going to happen and also knows what is going to happen in the future.
My friend just emailed me the funniest audio clip I’ve heard in a while.
It’s a recording of the band ‘Rocket From the Crypt’ playing live. During the song the music gets quiet and the singer shouts, “Is anybody here from Florida?”
You hear about 10 fans shout back; the music stops and the singer screams, “‘cuz you know I f$ckin’ hate Florida!!”
Funny as HELL !!! Wish I was there to see/hear that as I also f&ckin hate Florida.
Well, not the natural land, just the state/county/city govts. . … although the humidity is brutal inland, the beaches are incredible !
IS ANYONE HERE FROM FLORIDA!?
(Don’t worry, Ben, I bleeped it to keep HBB family friendly.)
http://tinyurl.com/yqm9sg
“Despite favorable mortgage interest rates, strong job growth and other positive economic conditions..”
Lets try this again.
“Despite tightening loan requirements, a growing unemployment rate, and a downturn in tourism…”
They should be happy with the number they have, next month will be even worse.
Ahhh, love the Florida hit….
Have noticed that the national statistics show that “inventory has leveled off” - though apparently not in FLA. Some thoughts and questions about inventory and how reliable these data are…
1] A drop in inventory could mean that more houses are actually selling, which is how the media are interpreting the numbers, but seems….improbable.
2] A drop in inventory could mean that listings are expiring and many sellers are giving up hope for now, planning to relist when the market “bounces back” (maybe within my lifetime?)
3] A drop could mean more people are trying the FSBO route, unwilling/unable to afford the 6% commission cut. (I’m guessing it would be impossible to get a grip on FSBO numbers).
4] A drop could mean realtors are refusing to take more listings, either deliberately trying to keep inventory numbers down, or just refusing to take unrealistic listings (anyone think this is likely? In my experience, realtors like to have lots of listings)
5] A drop could mean more houses have gone into foreclosure, but the banks/lenders haven’t yet begun listing them (this could be a big number, based on Ben’s summaries).
Anything I’ve missed?
I guess the take home message is that inventory drops may be meaningless in the present environment.
There are definitely signs that #2 and #4 are happening. Several stories have been linked on HBB with local realtors begging people not to list if they don’t have to sell now. #5 is also highly probable and in addition, foreclosures might not hit the MLS and thus the inventory number at all. If they go the auction route, the will never be listed as they stay outside the system the whole time.
I’m guessing 2 and possibly 5 are the bigger factors. There are many people that would like to sell but have either decided to wait or have given up. If these aren’t yet in foreclosure, they may be heading there. I don’t buy option 1 at all. For my local area where there had been around 35 comparable properties on the market with 5 or 6 sales per month, there have been no sales closed since early May. From comments from my agent, sales for under $500,000 have really dropped off, but over $800,000 may barely be holding its own. I think if there were any signs that sales were increasing at all, there would suddenly be a flood of new listings.
Reminds me of the “hidden unemployed” not counted as such because they have stopped looking for jobs. That hasn’t been an issue in a while, but might soon be again.
The Wall Streeters, of course, will simply declare themselves “consultants.”
“That hasn’t been an issue in a while, but might soon be again.”
Back in Michigan it is. They have seen the unemployment rate “drop” down to 7.2% from a high of 7.8%. Many people have given up and moved out. Some estimate actual unemployment numbers in the Detroit metro area are as high as 25% with the city of Detroit possibly as high as 50%. There’s no way to accurately guage it.
4] A drop could mean realtors are refusing to take more listings, either deliberately trying to keep inventory numbers down, or just refusing to take unrealistic listings (anyone think this is likely? In my experience, realtors like to have lots of listings)
I don’t think they want lots of high priced listings with sellers calling them every day wondering why their houses haven’t sold, and could they have an open house every single week to bring people in. Plus realtors probably don’t want to pay for advertising on overpriced properties. That could get expensive after a year or two.
I’m just enjoying the spectacle right now. Ahhhhhh.
Market tanking momentarily to the PPT arrives… Ahhhh.
I keep hearing about the early 80s bust. We are going to look back on that as relatively good times.
If we go back to the early 80’s or worse, no one will sell a house without land contracting it. Banks and mortgage companies will definitely be hurting. High point in our area was 21%.
Cruising Down From The Peak In Florida
I read that as Cursing Down From the Peak…
Yes, cursing down from the peak sounds about right. Last night, while channel surfing, I happened upon a show called “My House is Worth What?”, and they were profiling a FAT couples home in Orlando. They purchased the 3/2 for $209k in 2003. When the realtor came back and told them the most they could wish for was $400k, they were PISSED! To them, it was WORTH $450k-$500k. They should’ve been thrilled with the news, yet the lardheads wanted more, more, more. Despicable.
…yet the lardheads wanted more, more, more.
Unbelievable, yet… They probably have a HELOC they didn’t mention on the program. It seems like everyone and their brother borrowed against their house.
FAT:
Financially
All
Tapped?
Can’t control their finances or their appetite.
You lose weight by doing exercise. You build wealth by saving and not buying stuff on credit. Both require a form of deferred gratification. Apparently not a possibility for these people.
Give it another year and they’ll get exactly what they paid for it $209k.
Bet that house drops to $125k at the bottom. 2003 prices is still inflated. I smell foreclosure for those fat fools!
Just heard from the wife that the proverbial “rich uncle” finally got an offer on a condo he’s had in Sarasota on the market over a year (empty of course).
A year ago he’d turned down an offer of 500k. Now he’s listed it at 400k and got an offer of 375……..no, he didn’t take it! He’s countering to try and capture a couple of grand. Understand that this guy is RICH, he is very “smart” in many, many ways.
However, his cost basis was something like 350. I can’t believe he’s this greedy not to just get out. He’s so rich he can afford to have it go to zero with little impact on his net worth but there is something about people (in general) and their pricing of these things.
I like and admire the guy but I hope the buyers walk. If anyone deserves to get screwed its him because he’s capable of sizing up the situation but is letting greed get in the way. There’s no other explanation.
Anchoring behavior. In his mind, he isn’t getting out with 375, he’s losing 125. Very hard to accept that kind of loss, even if it’s imaginary.
Same thing happened to a friends neighbor. He was asking $699k, and had an offer for $649k which he rejected, no counter. He finally sold the house a year later, for $499. Ouch!
Stories like that are why I have been lurking here for years. They put a smile on my face.
“lurking here for years” = we’ll see Dougie exiting his 944 next NBC DATELINE for online predators soon.
Now I understand the saying “pigs get slaughtered.”
Reminds me of the fools on deal or no deal who get too greedy and bam! They open the million $ case and end up winning something like $200 LOL
If it’s a couple thousand more he’s looking for, he’ll pay that in taxes and insurance in one month.
I just got back from travelling half-way across the country by car. Man, did it ever feel good to get back to Florida. Yeah, there are a lot of beautiful landscapes out there but the small town is not for me. Specifically, going into most restaurants and bars where everyone was smoking like it was 1972. Or, how delapidated many towns appeared. I was taken aback by how so many towns looked on the edge of abandon. Exception was found in Omaha where the town I visited is in full transition to Mexico. The crime was unreal. I visit my mother one a week near the Orange Bowl and have never been robbed yet within two hours of parking in small town USA, my car window was smashed and we were robbed.
It was the eye-opener we needed. It isn’t that much better elsewhere. And, small town does not mean safety or happy living, even if you can get a home for dirt cheap.
check demographics at epodunk.com
I like Carteret co NC
Thanks. I have no doubt there are still many, many good towns in America to live in. Why do they all seem to be in the Carolinas though? LOL!
But I think I like it here now. Despite the obvious issues in Florida, we have alrady gone through that transition and we know what is what. I don’t know what is going to happen in all those small towns being run over by illigal immigrants. What is most scary is that this appears to be happening all over the country and nobody in charge is addresing the cumulative and potential affects of what is going on.
where you robbed in Nebraska?
No, the gangs and mexican overtake were in Neb. We go robbed in a nearby town.
I came back to this listing a friend shared in her area which is typical of what is going on in the higher end neighborhoods in Florida.
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=F787129&mls=mls_miami&cKey=0lm6pdc8&source=SEFMLS
We were on a roadtrip around the 4 Corners last fall…
Going through Farmington, NM we spotted 33 pawn shops on one road, in a 3 mile stretch.
The place reeked of desperation, despite the oil business booming in the area…
I’ve always enjoyed visiting my friend who lives in Omaha. Don’t recall it being very hispanic. However, haven’t been there for several years.
I have heard from friends in the meat business that the only workers the slaughter houses in the midwest can find are hispanic, americans don’t and won’t take those jobs.
Saw it with my own eyes. The roach coaches cater to the plant workers and those workers want tacos.
Packinghouse jobs paid about $10/ hour in the late 1970’s. In the early 1980’s the union was more or less broken and average wages in meatpacking dropped like a stone. If packinghouses were paying the inflation adjusted average of $30 /hour, Americans would be competing for those jobs.
Should be worded
‘Americans won’t work for slave wages, so we import slaves to do the work at wages Americans refuse.’
Unfortunately, American also don’t want to pay the market price of products produced by workers paid a decent wage.
You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
They also sped up the lines and violate OSHA. So it’s less safe for the workers (and there’s fecal matter in your ground beef).
I shopped at a Home Depot store the other day, and while walking down one of the 72 aisles I noticed some items laying on the floor. I concluded that the Home Depot Corporation is a managerial disaster. I was really happy to drive away with my sanity intact.
Been boycotting Home Depot for years since I found out they supported illegals in their parking lots … and more.
Discovered Lowes & havent been back to Home Depot since.
I think the current crop of employees are pissed since they missed the get-rich-meteoric stock rise that is legendary among early employees.
Some of those early workers, like early Googlers, retired well off, and now the latest crews are all about pissy attitudes over missing the gravy train. Having CEO mis-managing the stores didnt help either.
Actually went to a Home Depot last week to compare cabinets: what a cluster f*ck !! It was like a repeat of KMarts decline in the late 70’s/80’s. … no one cares, no one listens, just dodging any responsibily.
Ex: musta saw 14-15 employees all walking back n forth along the main aisles, but back in the outer reaches like lawnmowers, no one.
Thats because it boooooringgg in outer mongolia, no fellow employees to yak too. But hey, the store is now staffed to help youuuu.
( Sure, if you happen to be along the 7 main aisles, youll get hounded. )
it’d be comical if it wasn’t so sad (( rant off ))
Lowes just seems more upscale and they’ll match Home Depots prices.
“…my car window was smashed and we were robbed.”
Robbed as in gun to the face, gimme your money, or burglarized as in items stolen from car? Not to be picky, but I hear a lot of people using robbed instead of the correct term burglarized. Robbery is much more serious.
You are right. We weren’t robbed, we were burglarized. Better? Phew… I feel better already. I wasn’t robbed! I was only broken into and burglarized. That changes my whole story and opinion …
But I sure didn’t feel safe there. Between the warnings to my kids not to respond to the gang signs at the park to being told which bars are safer …
I feel I was robbed of an illusion more than anything material.
I feel I was robbed of an illusion more than anything material.
That’s sad. I haven’t been on a real road trip in so long. Now I’m to understand that Americana is disappearing on the backroads?
Sad is exactly how I felt. Americana is in full transition and those outside of the issue haven’t a clue. One relative is a cop and he says he doesn’t give a crap about immigration. They could not possibly arrest them all. They are accepting the changes while all around them long term citizens are in an uproar. They expect a showdown.
“They are accepting the changes while all around them long term citizens are in an uproar.”
Unchecked ‘illegal’ immigration has been going on for decades. Ask anyone who has lived in California during the last oh, 30 years.
The rest of America didn’t care ‘That’s California, we don’t have that problem here.’
Hmmm a border won’t stop them, but a state line will?
Those in an “uproar” should have gotten off their tails years ago - it’s too late now.
Oh south FL is even more dangerous. My mom’s car was burglarized and one of my neighboor’s houses got burglarized and thats in a gated community. I can’t wait to move somewhere safe(r) like NW Pennsylvania.
The Home Depot and the Lowe’s in our nearby town couldn’t be more different. HD was like a mortuary at midnight. Lowe’s had customers, clerks, and a relatively busy checkout area given that I was there on a Tuesday afternoon.
Apparently Lowes has been working on a “Women Friendly” campaign to appeal to women because they apparently control the household pursestrings (certainly not in my house though, I kind of like not having revolving consumer debt or oversized house).
Amen, sister. The smoking’s a nightmare. And how do you like the cute rotten teeth with everybody on meth? Not to mention I want a place I can go about my business and train on my bike anytime without inducing comment. Stopped at a country store in Podunk, Va. a few years back and some redneck said, “How much you make an hour doin’ that, bud?” You can have it. Ponte Vedra Beach ain’t so bad.
I hear you. I was in “butternut” hell! LOL
I jumped for joy at the first Starbucks on the Turnpike!
“How much you make an hour doin’ that, bud?”
“More than I do sitting on a barstool”
(I love riding bicycle)
The put-down comment I thought of 5 seconds too late was (the guy was some kind of low-level construction worker) “Don’t you think you’re getting kind of old to still be working by the hour?”
I’ve noticed this a lot in various small towns I’ve been through all over the USA. It’s not that mysterious, though. Agriculture employees far fewer people than it did 100 years ago when those towns were booming, and the young people have all been lured away to the cities for the last 40 years. This isn’t a sudden phenomenon.
Well, with housing as it is, maybe the trend will reverse. In the instance I used, the town is losing people yet it looked busy with immigrants. But for the immigrants, the town is surely experiencing a slow death. There is not much work wise outside of the meat packing.
All I could think of driving past those run down towns was how ripe for the picking they were for hungry immigrants.
Odd. Usually small towns have little or no crime. West Palm Beach has 5-10x more crime than NW Pennsylvania! I can’t wait to leave!
WCI is getting crushed. NO BUYER!! Carl ICahn says thanks but no thanks. The board rebuffed his $22 takeover attempt saying the company is worth more. Stocktraders now think the company is only worth $8 a share.
We have family in the tri-state area and it has changed severely. We had not visited in many years and were shocked. Besides the smoking at the bars and restaurants, we went out Saturday night and the entire small town was closed down at 10:00 p.m. — except for the roach coaches lined up and down the small strip serving up to families im makeshift tables and chairs outside. Nothing unusual for South Florida but Nebraska?
Housing just as ridiculous in KC where I could purchase a 4/3 older home for 200K. Compared to my new, 4/3, split with pool and private backyard I payed $230K for in Florida? Crap!
Check out NW Pennsylvania and all the nice $50k houses.
Yeah, but does anyone want to live there? Yikes. Been to the NE part and talk about dying towns.
How about the crime?
Barrell of oil is close to $80. I wonder what happens when we get a Hurricane? You know it is going to happen and will be just the thing to push this country deep into a recession.
they can keep raising prices. all they are doing is forcing people to spend less and then slow down housing sales. less sales + more inventory = price drop
“‘What we’re seeing is a stabilizing of the market,’ he said. ‘It’s actually steadying and the numbers are becoming more realistic. The numbers were dramatically skewed going up, and they’re going to be dramatically skewed going down.’”
I think someone spiked the Realtor Kool-Aid a little too much.
Sorta like saying that the Titanic “stabilized” once it hit the ocean floor…
DOW down 320 points…
Suzanne!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No shit. Look at WCI. PNRA. Many have gotten killed. FMT and LEND.
TIMBER!!!!!!!!
I get sick of reading “sales down 50% and median down 5%”
When are we going to be reading median down 50%?
I am sick of watching this paint dry and want my prices NOW!!!!
RANT OFF.
Yeah! I’m done with …
Overpriced POS(s) and greedy homeowners.
prices wont go down because people think they are special. too bad they have to go into debt to grasp the concept that housing prices went up based on greed. it will take a while in florida for prices to drop. especially in more nicer areas.
Anyone know a good Inspector in Orlando? I have a friend getting a house built whose needs someone to watch every stage of construction like a hawk.
“‘Several factors are influencing the market in the Sarasota-Bradenton area,’ says May Aston, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors. ‘Inventory is plentiful, and sellers have adjusted their price expectations, which helps make homes more affordable again.’”
May Aston, you are dead wrong on your assumption that homes are more affordable. The wage and retirement fixed incomes are not even close to being in line with housing costs in the area. The lack of ethics clearly shows in statements like the one by May Aston!!
“‘It’ll be a couple-year process,’ he said. ‘For those caught on the wrong side of this, there will be blood n the floor.’”
There will be blood n the floor along with the arms, legs and their ass they are going to lose!
“But if buyers wait to see whether prices continue to fall, Kelley said, it could cost them because mortgage interest rates have been creeping up and the value of their own home for sale could continue to slide.”
This is pure bull sh**, the higher the rates go, the more downward the price must adjust to make it more affordable to the consumer. More fluff and stuff to scare the consumer!
So let’s hear some reports from around FL about amount of for sale signs and price reductions in different areas.
Hey please see my replies above. I am worried about the crime in some small towns. I was under the impression that they were safe. Peak oil and cheap houses draws me to relocate to a small town.
I suggest you do research in any are you want to live. I think realtor.com does that but I have not checked in a while. It seems most services in the past are now premium and you have to pay.
I love TN — some parts. KY has some great spots. And I only hear good things about Alabama - I’ve never been there though but people say Birmingham is one of America’s well kept secret.
try epodunk - look for high income and higher age skew
Crossville TN is good
2005 is now forboden - using 2006 is BS
he median sales price declined 15 percent to $198,000 from the $232,800 recorded during the same period last year.”