The Housing Bubble

The Times Union reports from New York. “In line with a national trend, the Capital Region’s housing market continued to slide during the first six months of the year, leading to price declines in some areas. ‘Saratoga was our most active market and the market showing the most price appreciation,’ said James Ader, the Realtor association’s chief executive. ‘So if there is an area that would be showing an adjustment, it would be Saratoga.’”

“Many are complaining of homes that just won’t sell, or are finding they need to drop asking prices to get potential buyers to take a look. ‘It’s a slowdown, and quite a slowdown,’ said Realtor Geraldine Abrams in Saratoga Springs. ‘A lot of houses are not selling.’”

“Abrams knows that as well as anyone. Her house in Saratoga Springs has been on the market for six weeks, but has attracted just one browser. The lackluster pace led her to knock $50,000 off the $949,000 asking price. ‘I’m living the market personally,’ said Abrams, adding that the current market is the worst she’s seen in at least 10 years. ‘I’ve had to take the bitter medicine myself.’”

From Capital News 9 in New York. “The Beggs family…put the home on the market a year ago. Since then, the family has been through three realtors, and they’ve knocked $10,000 off the original price. ‘It makes you want to cry, it does,’ said Tracy Beggs. ‘It’s really frustrating not getting the interest in the house when I know there’s nothing wrong with it.’”

“The Beggs aren’t alone in their struggles. The greater capital association of realtors says the national housing slump has finally hit the capital region. Housing sales in Schenectady county dropped 17%.”

“‘We sold property too high. We took the prices too high. And the real estate market was created by the realtors,’ said Tom Marks of Coldwell Banker in Schenectady.”

“Marks said a few people bought overpriced homes, and that overpriced the entire market. ‘Now we gotta get back to reality and get it back on track. And it’s up to the home-buyers to see that them prices cannot be gotten,’ he said.”

Newsday reports from New York. “This year in New York, more than 30 percent of subprime, adjustable mortgage loans will see new interest rates for the first time, with approximately 25 percent re-setting next year, according to the state Banking Department. Many loans that originated last year will go from 8.4 percent to 11.4 percent, according to state figures.”

“Default rates are rising and so are foreclosures - a 40 percent increase in New York last year. It’s happening so fast that Michael McHugh, vice president of the Empire State Mortgage Bankers Association, apologizes for not knowing the number of lenders on Long Island, noting that companies with no history have proliferated during the boom housing years and contributed to the current sea of risky loans.”

“McHugh and others say few lenders are gearing up. Already, agents and short sales specialists report, lenders can’t act fast enough on short sales sometimes to forestall foreclosures.”

“‘It’s a new ballgame,’ said McHugh, who also heads Continental Home Loans in Melville. ‘It’s ridiculously caught a lot of people by surprise.’”

“Homeowners, many of them immigrants who didn’t understand loan terms or owners who recently refinanced, are writing ‘hardship letters’ to lenders and submitting proof of destitution. Lenders worry over making the right decisions and face people trying to con their way out of contracts.”

“From no talk of such deals in 2005 to a dozen cases involving his company last year, Michael Litzner, owner of Westbury-based Century 21 American Homes, predicts the number will rise, because for lenders, time is really money ‘Money today is worth more than six months or a year from now,’ Litzner said.”

The New York Daily News. “Foreclosure filings this spring jumped 92% in Queens. Foreclosure filings also rose substantially in Manhattan in the second quarter, although the actual number totaled just 255. ‘From where I sit, foreclosures are a tremendous problem,’ said Carol Finegan, a foreclosure prevention counselor at nonprofit Brooklyn Housing & Family Services.”

“A report by appraisal firm Miller Samuel found the median sales price in Queens in the second quarter was $469,000, down 4.3%.”

“For six of Finegan’s clients, it’s already too late, Finegan has told them to sell. But faced with a choppy market, three are hoping to do short sales, which means their lenders agree to accept less than the amounts owed. It’s a scenario Finegan expects to see more and more as strapped homeowners find their interest rates adjusting upward.”

“‘People took loans they shouldn’t have been given in the first place — that’s our problem,’ she said.”

From New York Business. “The number of New York City homeowners facing foreclosure is on track to reach the highest point in more than a decade. Lenders have started foreclosure actions on 7,000 homes since January, according to the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project. By the end of the year, the number is expected to exceed 14,000, which would represent a 60% increase over 2006.”

“‘We have to brace ourselves,’ says Sarah Ludwig, NEDAP’s executive director. ‘It’s going to get worse before it gets better.’”

“Three of the hardest hit neighborhoods are in Brooklyn, according to NEDAP: Bedford Stuyvesant, Flatbush and East New York. Two are in Queens: Rochdale and Jamaica.”

“Neighborhood Housing Services of New York Inc., one of the major agencies that counsels homeowners, is getting about 800 calls per month, up from 300 calls per month a year ago.”

“Already, signs of decay are showing up in some areas, housing advocates say. ‘You find if you drive through these neighborhoods that they are starting to show signs of deferred maintenance one some single-family homes,’ says Sarah Gerecke, NHS executive director. ‘That is something that we have not seen in years. The fact that they are less well tended is a real sign that people don’t have the resources to stay in their homes.’”

From Fosters Online in New Hampshire. “Mortgage foreclosures may double in Strafford County this year, with Rochester accounting for roughly one-third of them, according to the New Hampshire Banking Department.”

“State Banking Commissioner Peter Hildreth said Monday that the number of subprime loans granted in the state has increased rapidly in the last few years, and when low introductory interest rates adjust higher, Strafford County will be particularly hard hit. Hildreth said that the high price of real estate on the Seacoast has lead subprime lenders to offer ‘teaser rate’ deals to buyers who would not otherwise qualify for loans. Subprime loans currently account for 14 percent of loans statewide.”

“The Strafford County Registry of Deeds has recorded 98 foreclosures so far this year, almost equaling last year’s entire total of 113.”

The Boston Herald from Massachusetts. “A few years ago, a client of Cambridge real estate consultant Paul Martinez saw a two-family Somerville house as a prime chance at a second income. The 30-year-old novice investor had seen ‘flipping’ on reality shows dozens of times. But 18 months later, this buyer was learning to tile and wire. He purchased at the top of the market and had run out of money on the brink of the housing slump, and the condos sat on a deflated market, overpriced by $60,000. Before long, foreclosure loomed.”

“‘People see these shows on HGTV and think they can flip,’ said Martinez. ‘They don’t have the contacts or the knowledge to recognize they’re getting false numbers.’”

“Between the first quarter of 2006 and 2007, foreclosures increased in Massachusetts by a record 75 percent, 83 percent in Suffolk County alone, according to ForeclosuresMass.”

“‘A year and a half ago, when the market was racing, a lot of first-timers tried to flip and never sold. They might have bought into a loan that was escalating too quickly or gotten trapped by overinvesting in a moderate neighborhood, and now more than a few are stuck,’ said Paul Turcotte, broker and owner of Re/Max Destiny in Cambridge.”

The Boston Globe. “Unlike in the last real estate bust, when local banks and credit unions wrote nearly 80 percent of mortgages in Massachusetts, most home loans issued today pass through a nationwide chain of brokers, lenders, service companies, Wall Street firms, and investors. That makes tracing ownership difficult, if not impossible.”

“Kristen Harol, deputy director of Lawrence Community Works, said her staff can’t even figure out whom to call to negotiate purchases of the foreclosed properties. ‘We can’t get to square one,’ she said. ‘The problem is: Real estate is local, but the money is national.’”

“For example, more than 20 percent of foreclosure actions in Massachusetts in the last year have been initiated on behalf of a unit of Deutsche Bank Group, according to ForeclosuresMass. Deutsche, while listed on the deed as the mortgage holder and technically the legal owner, is a trustee for investors such as hedge funds and other financial firms that hold the securities.”

“A spokesman said Deutsche Bank has no economic interest in the mortgages and is not responsible for foreclosures or for selling foreclosed property. Such decisions are made by servicing companies, the spokesman said.”

“Moreover, mortgage-backed bonds are usually sold with legally binding commitments that create more obstacles for delinquent borrowers. For example, reductions in loan amounts are often needed to keep people from losing homes, but mortgage-backed bonds are usually sold with prohibitions against forgiving loan principal, except in rare cases, said McCoy, the UConn professor.”

“‘Anyone seeking a loan workout is going to have to face these impediments,’ said Patricia McCoy, a University of Connecticut law professor. ‘It’s perfect deniability. When there’s a problem, each person in line says, ‘Don’t talk to me, talk to the other person.’”

The Gloucester County Times from New Jersey. “Two years ago, Alvaro Ocasio bought a brand-new, two-story Colonial in East Greenwich, but a job transfer soon forced him to relocate. He put the house on the market in January. It’s been sitting there with a ‘For Sale’ sign out front ever since.”

“Meanwhile, new developments are cropping up around his Oakridge Street home, creating competition and forcing Ocasio to reduce his asking price by $21,000 less than what he paid for the model home two years ago.”

“‘The problem is, a lot of sellers are trying to make a lot of money in this market, and it’s just not there,’ Ocasio said.”

“For the first half of this year, however, sales have decreased by 10 percent compared to last year while both the inventory and the median sale price have grown, according to Prudential Fox & Roach’s HomExpert Report.”

“About five years ago, the real estate market was a different ball game. Interest rates were low and subprime loans were available for home buyers who normally wouldn’t qualify because of their credit rating, explained Steve Storti, senior VP of marketing for Prudential Fox & Roach.”

“‘The reality is, from 2003 to 2006 you had a very, very, very strong real estate market,’ Storti said.”

“With more buyers shopping around, the competition increased the selling prices of homes. The turnover was also quicker, which forced many sellers to have a new home lined up before they sold their own, Storti said. The situation today is reversed.”

“‘You have to sell your home before you feel comfortable committing to purchase one, and that tends to slow down the market in and of itself,’ Storti said. ‘The mortgage market is becoming tighter because a lot of people who received loans in the last three or four years are defaulting on them.’”

“If you can’t afford the loan, then you can’t afford the home, leaving no choice but to put a ‘For Sale’ sign on the lawn.”

“Mortgage lenders are now looking a bit more closely at a borrower’s credit history before handing over a loan, which has decreased the pool of potential buyers, explained Stacy Masso, a home loan consultant.”

“‘A lot of people got into those fixed rates the first few years which made their payments quite comfortable,’ Masso said. ‘Now they can’t afford it, but they can’t sell it right now because there are not enough buyers. It has kind of all combusted.’”

“‘It depends on the seller’s situation,’ said Erin Tallant, a Realtor who is trying to sell a home in Washington Township. Two years ago, the house in Washington Township would have sold for $269,000, Tallant said. Now, she has it priced at $240,000.”

“Ron Bruce, an agent for Coldwell Banker Elite who is selling Ocasio’s home in East Greenwich, said he reduced the price to $349,000 with hopes of making it move. ‘Right now is a great time for a buyer to buy,’ Bruce said. ‘They can keep shopping until they find a good deal.’”