Everybody Is Willing To Sell In California
The Daily Bulletin reports from California. “Most folks who follow the housing market these days seem to agree on one thing: The news isn’t good. Sales are way down, while prices are either declining or going sideways almost everywhere except at the high end of the price spectrum. Builders like KB Home (have) been making adjustments in size and design to hit prices that are more attractive to buyers in certain areas.”
“Steve Johnson, director of the Southern California office of MetroStudy, said the length of the approval and development cycles is part of the problem, too. That means it’s difficult for a developer to shut down or change a large project when sales are slow.”
“‘That’s why even in a tightening market, we continue to produce a significant number of lots,’ Johnson said.”
“Numerous sources have suggested that many of the homes on the market now aren’t really for sale, that homeowners have seen big sale prices and are hoping to cash in. If they can’t get their price, they won’t sell. That has led Redlands-based regional economist John Husing to call the trend in existing home prices ’sticky downward.’”
“‘Prices will decline, due to forced sales from deaths, retirements and job changes,’ he said. ‘Also, forced sales will occur from those who over-borrowed using sub-prime loans.’”
“Husing said he saw logic to the predictions made by several analysts that existing home prices in the inland counties could fall as much as 20 percent. ‘Income data would seem to support that,’ he said. ‘But this logic misses the fact that a large share of inland buyers come from Southern California’s coastal counties where mean incomes are much higher.’”
“Husing suggested that a reduction in the new-home median to about $380,000 in the Inland Empire, a decline of 13.6 percent from last fall’s peak, would re-establish their market. ‘The existing home market will have a tougher time recovering,’ he said. ‘Conditions appear to indicate that the existing home market is in worse condition than the new home market.’”
“Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., disagreed. He said he doesn’t see that much difference between the two markets.”
“‘The situation right now is that too many people don’t want to buy anything, new or resale,’ he said. ‘They are petrified that prices are going to decline after they buy. I think everyone is in neutral right now until things simmer down.’”
The Merced Sun Star. “The current list of Merced houses headed for foreclosure includes at least one address in the North Merced neighborhood less than a 9 iron’s pitch from the country club.”
“Nobody is immune. Even people who worked, and thrived, in real estate during the boom that preceded the opening of UC Merced find themselves losing their houses.”
“Among them is a 28-year-old former loan processor who bought a house in Merced for $220,000 in January 2006, hoping to flip it after a couple of years. Months later, he lost his job, and his silent partner bailed. He hasn’t made a $2,000 monthly mortgage payment since November.”
“He didn’t want his name used because he hopes to work in real estate again. ‘It’s a lucrative business,’ he explained.”
“He also defended the lending industry against the bad press it’s gotten lately.”
“‘I’m not saying every loan was explained properly, but at end of day, it’s the consumer who signs on the dotted line,’ he said. ‘The picture that’s painted in the media is that everybody that got into a subprime loan is a victim and that loan officers and real estate agents are just a bunch of bad guys out there trying to screw over the hard-working middle-class homebuyers. Even though I’m losing my home, I’m not a victim.’”
“In Merced, those sales happen almost daily on the grassy patch outside the old courthouse buildingt. Last Tuesday the scene played out like a 19th century melodrama: a man from a trustee company stood under a tree and read aloud the addresses of houses on the block and their asking prices. A few feet away, a woman cried behind her sunglasses over the Los Banos house she was losing.”
“No one bid on the properties that day, so all of the houses went ‘back to the benny,’short for beneficiary, the legal term for the lender.”
“That’s what’s about to happen to the North Merced house a local business owner bought in 2000 for $135,000. As his home’s value nearly tripled, he refinanced several times and now owes $365,000. He took out loans to start a business that failed. He said he was too embarrassed to let his name appear in the newspaper. But he offered plenty of theories on why so many Merced homeowners took out loans they couldn’t afford.”
“‘A lot of people here are tired of living check to check and they say, ‘My house has doubled in value and there’s a chunk of change just sitting there. I could take it and for once have a little money in my pocket,’ he said. ‘You see a lot of people driving Hummers around town and they probably make $15 an hour. That money came from their house.’”
“Judy Thompson, a housing counseling specialist with a Los Angeles-based nonprofit, has been in the debt counseling business for 18 years. Right now she’s as busy as she was during California’s real estate bust of the early 1990s. Many of her clients are borrowers who wouldn’t have been eligible for loans before the rise of subprime mortgages.”
“‘(People) got into loans they can’t afford,’ said Thompson. ‘They found a house they liked and their loan officer said, ‘We can get you this loan,’ and they didn’t check to make sure they could afford to make the payments.’”
The LA Business Journal. “Los Angeles County is the center of the Alt-A lending universe. According to Inside Mortgage Finance, Pasadena-based IndyMac ranked No. 1 in the nation last year with $49.6 billion in Alt-A loans and Calabasas-based Countrywide was a close second at $47 billion.”
“Last week the Alt-A market came under siege as funding to buy repackaged loans dried up, a major Alt-A lender teetered on the edge of bankruptcy and mainstream lenders like Wells Fargo & Co. are cutting back on Alt-A loans.”
“As a result, shares of both companies have plummeted about 23 percent in the last two weeks. ‘You will see quite a bit of pain at these larger institutions as this crisis progresses,’ said analyst Zach Gast.”
The Voice of San Diego. “The latest release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates that San Diego home prices were, in aggregate, still falling as of May. Prices as measured by the HPI were down 7.0 percent from May 2006, and 7.4 percent from the November 2005 peak.”
“It is notable that the decline continued uninterrupted despite a seasonal tendency for prices to rise in spring. Even during the much-maligned housing downturn of the 1990s, prices managed to bounce at least a little bit every spring except in 1993.”
“Of course, seasonal trends aren’t the only factors in play. Since May, it has become significantly more difficult for buyers to get their hands on the New Age mortgage products that were crucial to enabling them to pay San Diego prices. There’s a very good chance that it will become yet more difficult in the months ahead.”
The Union Tribune. “Construction is likely to resume this fall on an 11-story luxury condo project fronting on Balboa Park once additional financing is in place, the building’s developer said yesterday.”
“Mehran Saberi, president of Mayfair Homes, said he had halted activity last week at the company’s 37-unit Biarritz condominium building at Sixth Avenue and Redwood Street because of budget overruns that the project’s primary lender, San Diego National Bank, had not agreed to cover.”
“‘We’re working diligently with our investment group to secure financing,’ Saberi said, adding he is hoping to start construction again in two to four months.”
“Occupancy is now expected in early 2009, but Saberi said the delay might actually help.”
“‘You’re going to see existing inventory gradually dwindle down over the next 12 to 18 months,’ he said. ‘We’ll be dealing with a better market from the seller’s point of view than we’re experiencing today.’”
The Times Delta. “Tulare County businesses tied closely to home construction, from heavy-equipment suppliers to air-conditioner installers, are feeling the ripple effects of the housing slowdown.”
“Jerry Kramlich, general manager of High Sierra Lumber and Truss in Tulare, said the truss-manufacturing business has taken a hit this year. Business has dropped 50 percent despite summer normally being a busy period, he said.”
“‘January and February were terribly slow,’ he said. ‘March and April were not too bad, but May, June and July [were] bad.’”
“As a result, he has had let go of six of the 24 people in his truss operation. He’s not optimistic that he’ll have reason to rehire them any time soon.”
“‘My feeling is it’s going to be pretty slow this year,’ Kramlich said. In fact, he expects the downturn in construction to get even worse.”
“The value of single-family-home permits issued last month fell 35 percent compared to July 2006, Visalia’s Community Development Department reported Thursday. The decline signals an end to a five- or six-year building boom.”
“‘From the numbers we are seeing today, we know that new home projects coming onto the market in Visalia peaked in 2005-06,’ said Pam Sing, a senior administrative analyst for the city.”
“In recent months, builders Centex Homes and Ennis Homes; the area’s biggest engineering/ architectural firm, and big-box building materials suppliers Home Depot and Lowe’s have laid off workers in response to sagging home construction and sales.”
“The pullback in new home building may translate into good news for area homeowners, especially those hoping to sell in a market bloated by a near-record number of properties for sale.”
“The news is far less rosy for businesses tied to new home construction, even those that don’t work on the large, multi home developments. Mike Martino, an estimator for Visalia Tile, said…before this year, he said, about 20 percent of Visalia Tile’s business involved new homes, mostly for contractors building a handful of homes a year.”
“But with so many new tract homes on the market, Martino said, small builders who used to build 10 or so homes a year now are building four or five. ‘When they slow down,’ he said, ‘we slow down.’”
“‘The market is going to adjust,’ said Bob Keenan, president of the Home Builders Association of Tulare-Kings Counties. ‘The fewer of anything, the more expensive it becomes. Today you are seeing the opposite of that.’”
“As for would-be home buyers, now is their time, Keenan said. ‘Interest rates are low,’ he said, ‘”and everybody is willing to sell.’”
“‘The situation right now is that too many people don’t want to buy anything, new or resale,’ he said. ‘They are petrified that prices are going to decline after they buy. I think everyone is in neutral right now until things simmer down.’”
I think buyers are on neutral until prices bottom out.
I think you are exactly right.
Even when the cost of owning goes below renting people will still hold off until they see the bleeding stop, because they don’t want it to be their blood.
Seems like it’s gonna be really tough to time the bottom-event precisely, get in before everyone else and extract maximum value.. unless there are some indicators that are not ultimately based on popular sentiment.
“Seems like it’s gonna be really tough to time the bottom-event precisely,…”
Good thing there is no need to do this. If you live in CA, just wait until
1) prices = 100 to 120 times rent on comparable property.
2) median price for an area is less than or equal to six times the median household income for the area.
For LA, the second criterion entails a 50% price decline relative to incomes off the 2005 bubble summit, to get back from 2005 price levels (price = 12 X income) to 1998 levels (price = 6 X income).
P.S. In 1996, wife and I paid $127K for a condo in the Bay Area that would have rented for $1200 / mo. So by criterion 1), we bought when the price was at $127,000 / $1200 = 106 times potential rental income.
You’d pay too much, GS.
1) Rents will be a moving target, and data will be obsolete (of flat wrong) by the time it’s available.
2) The SFV median (for example) was only 3.5x prior to the boom, and prices will overshoot to the downside.
Same condo from 1996 is still overpriced at near 450-500K
We need more than 50% decline… to get back to normal levels.
buddy at work is unloading his 2 condos in Sacromento … market already flooded with inventory! He is taking a big lose on the so called investment.
No one will be able to time the bottom-event precisely. However, because we’re talking about real estate and not liquid investments (right?!!), the focus shouldn’t be on timing the precise bottom of real estate anyway.
The desire of FBs to time the housing market - and their grossly mistaken belief in their ability to do so - is among the leading reasons why real estate has exploded.
Housing is like everything else involving the use of money for personal gain - don’t try to time tops and bottoms. Those who do typically lose big money. They did it already in stocks and now they are doing it in real estate.
On a very practical level re: real estate, do as GetStucco and others suggest: check ratio of monthly cost to rent versus monthly cost to mortgage (including utilities, taxes, assessements, what have you), and keep in mind the general rule of no more than 3-3.5x income.
Also, never expect to gain more than a few percentage points above inflation on your real estate holdings annually.
“‘You’re going to see existing inventory gradually dwindle down over the next 12 to 18 months,’ he said. ‘We’ll be dealing with a better market from the seller’s point of view than we’re experiencing today.’”
Where do they get this cr@p? I guess the dude hasn’t seen Ivy Zelman’s reset chart of pain?
Right, the bank won’t comment, and the paper just takes his word for everything while the city addresses the ‘debris.’ So 12 months from now the condo market will spring back to life, based on???
Think about it…
One little graph got out and its huge ammunition to fight the REIC FUD. That is the greatest impact of the blogs.
The ugly truth finally caught up with the secondary market.
I’m still thinking J6P gets his wakeup call by Christmas. Since the only way J6P wakes up is if his beer ration is reduced (in quality, opposite in quantity).
Got popcorn?
Neil
‘I’m still thinking J6P gets his wakeup call by Christmas.’
- Sorry, Juan sixpack has until June next year.
The reset for Jan - July 07 was $240 billion
Reset for Aug - Dec 07 is $275 Billion
*** Reset for Jan - June 08 is $521 billion ****
This is from John Mauldin’s latest newsletter.
That will be a wake up call!
In six months half a trillion of loans reset. Ouch… that will leave a mark.
I still think by Christmas “Juan six pack” will notice he’s having to drink crappy beer and cut back on the toys to the kiddies.
Got popcorn?
Neil
“…almost everywhere except at the high end of the price spectrum.”
Here is the most famous urban legend of the bubble in print yet again: The high end won’t be hurt, because Richistan has so many new residents that there just are not enough super-duper-sized McMansions built alongside the fairway to accommodate them all. Funny how in our zip code (92127), the median list price has been stuck in the $1.3m-1.4m price range all year, while the median sales price has been stuck in the $0.7m-0.8m range — a $600,000 gap between wishing prices and market values. It seems we are running short on Richistan residents relative to the number of richly-priced houses coming to the market.
Ewww, yeah, dont say that in front of LAIG.
She has found that one magical place that won’t fall in price. I like to refer to it as Bullshitville.
Until the day comes that Ben posts that he only wants koolaid-drinkers who uniformly report huge price declines in their areas, I’m going to keep on calling it like I see it. And when prices in WLA fall, you’ll hear that from me too. It’s called being objective. If you think I’m full of it and WLA houses are on a fire-sale, why don’t you come down here and shop the open houses?
And nothing in my neighborhood has decreased in price either. I live in the east coast version of West L.A. But you don’t see me spewing crap about how “prices won’t come down here”. I am forward thinking. I can see the future and NYC is in for some bad things. But I’m sure West L.A. will stay in the stratosphere. Go do some investing.
Seriously, I keep hearing about these magical price declines around the country, Cramer calling it “Armageddon,” and I wonder if y’all commenting above have looked at the weekend real estate section in the LA Times. Our household makes about $140K per year and we can’t even laugh about affording the cheapest POS anywhere in West LA. There is something seriously wrong with the world when solidly middle-class earners can’t swing a mortgage.
I’m with LAIG on this–prices simply haven’t budged yet here. We’ve been waiting for the big 30-40% price cut to come, since it seems the market will grind to a total halt without it, but *sigh* when when when is the big question.
And how much West L.A. money do you think has been, or will be, lost as these hedge funds meltdown? My neighborhood is directly tied to your neighborhood. And I can tell you, without any hestitation, that my neighborhood is about to give your neighborhood a serisous f—ing.
WTF NYC? Did someone piss in your coffee this morning? I don’t think LAIG has done anything other than faithfully report that the West LA market is still, as of August 2007 (and depressingly to many of us waiting to buy) holding up remarkably well, in contrast to the reports we hear about most other places in the country. Let’s reserve our acrimony for the RE shills, the Appleton-Youngs and Lawrence Yuns of the world!
And for the record, I don’t believe prices will “never” come down, I’m just saying they haven’t, yet. Comprehend the difference? The longer the prices stay up in the face of the “armageddon” that is supposedly here, the more I do doubt that they will go down, but that’s just emotion.
I have no particular agenda, if prices go up, the properties I already own go up in value, if prices go down, I get to buy more. Personally, I’d rather be able to buy than to gaze at a bunch of paper equity I’ve accumulated that doesn’t do much for me. But again, what I would like to happen is just emotion, and my focus is to stay objective.
I have to listen to b—sh-t constantly in this city. It sure sounds a lot like what investorgirl says. It is driving me nuts listening to fools here. And nobody should be thinking of buying before 2010. We have so far to go. And we will go.
Calm down people. LAIG apparently you have boat loads of money and want to invest. Nothing wrong with it. This board provides information, opinions and predictions, however subjective they may be. What you do with it along with your observations is up to you.
WLA is a much sought after area (lots of people want to live there and like you, buy there). Is it immune to the bubble. Hell no. Most all here are saying that it will be 2010-11 until prices drop considerably (30-40%). And you can arrive at this conclusion by looking at SD & Florida coastal areas, which lead LA by a 1-2 years. There is a point in keeping track and reporting objective evidence of zero drops as you see it. At the same time you should also report the DOM of those houses to get a better persepective along with the # of sales. Just whining that you cannot invest in this market does not help. Again the extremely rich (like you perhaps) do not have any problems investing or withstanding a downtrend. These people always buy. We are talking about middle class.
Another way to look at the slow pace is to compare the last RE down cycle in the early 90s. I believe it took a full 5-6 years for prices to hit bottom. Only recently the MSM has acknowledged that RE is down (5% is SD) so IMO it will take till 2012 for prices to hit bottom.
Buying a HOME is always an emotional decision. If you’re happy, it’s a good decision. You have to live SOMEWHERE. Why not make yourself happy? Whatever you can afford is the price you pay for your own private idaho.
And for the record, I don’t believe prices will “never” come down, I’m just saying they haven’t, yet.
In most Southern CA areas it seems widely accepted that prices are down 10% from peak in 2005. Median is a nonesense number to be ignored. Now that credit is finally tightening, we will start seeing bigger price drops as sellers come to terms with the fact no one can qualify to purchase their home and very few have that much cash.
If every lender is taking the position which Indy Mac has taken as of last night. You will get your wish in L.A. sooner than later LAIG. They have wiped the slate clean of a lot of the wishy washy product and have increased the LTV’s. That’s going to be a bad thing for the LA market. They have officially tossed a wrench in the gears. Funny money is no more. No buyers for the stuff on the secondary market per their email. No more stated wage earner and no more option arms. Minimum fico 640 with 5% cash down minimum. If Indymac has dried up it’s over. Only the ones who can carry and service their own paper will continue to offer that stuff. So in essence it’s done. Give L.A. 3 mo’s as I predicted and it’s going to be a whole new ball game. When folks who have jobs have to qualify on based their income via their W-2’s. You have effectively wiped out a large portion of the buying market in L.A. Here’s a tip buy stock in Kinko’s they are going to get a huge increase in profits in the coming years.
I take it the espousal of the idea that the secondary market would force a severe tightening of lending standards no longer qualifies one as a naif?
I think it comes down to the obvious. The prices will stay as high as people are willing or able to pay for them. Some people will think it’s worth it to pay 60% of their income on housing. Some won’t. For some that just won’t even be enough. I’m not buying until I can get something worthwhile for $360K. Until then, I’ll stay in my $1300/mo. 2 bedroom 1200SF with a yard in Los Feliz.
LAIG,
You must be pretty young sweetheart. The prices in the west side didn’t really fall until 92-93-94. Slower burn because of the number of strong hands.
Still the life got sucked out of the area as people relocate and their is no influx. Not a soft landing but a crappy market that lasted a long long time.
Real estate was out of fasion as an investment. Then the market was pretty flat till 01. Bigger crash is likely this time and it will be everywhere.
Its all going to be the same percentages and math. South bay will be at a premium but will probably drop by 50%+ from the peak. Unremarkable areas like Manhatten Beach probably even more so.
The nice smooth graphs everyone sees from the papers had really significant lags in the westside. The pattern is repeating almost exactally.
Like the last time inland crashed first (and harder) since once you commit to living in the desert there is a hell of a lot from LA to Pheonix. People will leave LA and move near to family and lower cost areas to regroup.
Not so many forced sales in MB, RB but there will be a few sales that drive the comps to the toilet. People will get shaken out as real estate “speculvestors” (like you) get shakken out as the appreciation is gone and rents don’t feed the alligators.
I’m waiting to hear how “Manhatten Beach” is soooo special. Palos Verdes, La Jolla and Malibu are unique. Mahatten Beach? Just a crowded beach town (west of PCH) with unremarkable section of beach. Same as Hermosa, Redondo and Torrance beach… totally unremarkable. Silliest premium ever. Oh, it has the hill park… Whop di fricking do!
How about Playa Del Rey in the marsh with the smell of the oil foundry and the polution from MDR harbor. Another unremarkable spot. Don’t even ask about El segundo (where the sewer meets the sea).
You are correct that it has not dropped here. It will and it will lag because of gentrification, weather and strong hands. It will drop though.
Prices in pricy Silicon Valley also dropped by 40% back in the prior bubble… all from global competition … 1988 to 1991…
March 21, 2007
Myth #2: Silicon Valley House Prices Never Go Down
(c) copyright View From Silicon Valley, 2007. All rights reserved.
Local realtors, and even many residents, confidently recite the mantra housing prices never go down in Silicon Valley.
The strong house price rebound on the heels of the 2001 recession, on top of recent strength, seems to give some weight to the argument.
We won’t counter with the usual generation-low interest rates on the heels of the once-in-a-lifetime dot-com bubble causing an RE bubble. We won’t quibble over the impact of exotic mortgages or drastically-lowered lending standards. We won’t even get into the blind faith with which people became landlords while ignoring rental value, ROI, ROE, risk or any of the other myriad calculations you don’t need an MBA to make.
Instead, we will leave you with a single picture, courtesy of OFHEO:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id315.html
You can even see 800K to 1M homes going into foreclosure. Check Yahoo RE section.
If you want the ACTION buy some PUTs on the home builders or lenders rather than buying property in West LA.
I remember renting south of the blvd in Tarzana and making the trek to Valencia for school in ‘91 to ‘93. We had a 4br 3ba remodel for $1250. mo. The owners couldn’t sell and so rented it dirt cheap. The area completely seized up in that downturn and it will do it again.
Whoopdee doo: after watching a certain tiny Morro Bay house sit on the market for a couple of years, first at $475K and then at $455K, I see that within the past few weeks someone has reduced the price to $440K. This seller will probably never make a real deal, but just chase the market down bit by bit. If I am right about that, the one house should be a perfectly fine barometer of the whole market there.
Get a life, az_lender. You can’t expect somebody to just “give away” their home. You must not be very business savvy.
NYC, what’s your major issue.
I see the sarcastic joke in that comment. Maybe its just me . . .
Yes, NYC was just being sarcastic. What’s up today. Why so much friction with some of you…
Somebody had a reset!
I think his issue, any many others’ here (mine included) is some people don’t seem to get that this will take a LONG time to play out, and to simply appreciate the fact prices are no longer going up 20% a year.
“prices are no longer going up 20% a year.”
Prices don’t need to go up 20% a year anymore, even if they hold steady most middle class buyers would still be priced out for years to come.
Amen to that.
How about a new rallying cry here: 40% down or bust!
(Or should that be “40% down and busted!”?)
Morro Bay was so cheap in the 90’s. Funny how it is expensive there now. You must like rust, fog and not need a job. Surfing the south jetty was a treat back then, it probably has a shuttle to it now. Seems like all of these communities are just filling up with retirees.
Nothing will stop this crash except massive inflation - not that inflation will help anyone but worthless papers currency is worth even less than oversized McMansions.
deflation much more likely
Despite all the bad press inflation gets, I would start praying for inflation. barring that, in order to avoid bankruptcy and meet ever growing retirement fund requirements be prepared to pay taxes approaching 100% and live with ever decaying infrastructure. The bottom line is that if the federal government does not print massive amounts of money and distribute it wisely, there is not enough money in the universe to meed our obligations, which will result in massive personal, corporate and government defaults… Everyone needs to figure out we are in a mess and must share the pain moving forward. One way or another it will get us, and right now inflation looks a whole lot kinder than deflation.
“The bottom line is that if the federal government does not print massive amounts of money and distribute it wisely,…”
Are you F**king kidding me??
You need a history lesson in the worst way GH. Let me sum it up so that even you can understand this:
Printing Money=>Hyperinflation=>Weimer Germany=>Adolf Hitler=> WWII=>Cold War=> Germany gets BiFurcated for 50 years.
Hyperinflation is End Game Nimrod. You do not want to go there!!!!!!!!!
‘Printing Money=>Hyperinflation=>Weimer Germany=>Adolf Hitler’
- Please, do we have to bring the Fuhrer into this?
But what is “hyper-inflation”? If everybody is making 2% less each year then inflation of 3% could be considered hyper-inflation? If hyper-inflation does take place then we will all be wrong because the FBs will be able to pay their loans back with worthless currencies. The banks will not allow that. Hyper-inflation is hard for me to believe.
OK, we are 40 trillion in debt. How do you propose that debt be paid off? We can start wit 100% income tax, but like many I will “retire” early, so without inflation how do you seriously propose wer get out of the pickle we are in?
Tdoays economy is very different. Start with virtually free labor in China. Our whole nation is crumbling beneath our feet. Our infrastructure is in a state of advanced decay. We are massively indebted. We are suffering massively in a state of stagflation where our wages are locked to 2001 numbers, while the cost of living soars and our dollar weakens. Efforts by the
Fed to control inflation have it bottled up under pressure, with bubble after bubble popping up. At present we run the risk of a massive implosion. The endgame will be the same. We will just get there a different route. Alos, today, Germany is by far and away the strongest economy in the European Union. They just needed to get past the inevitable reset.
“OK, we are 40 trillion in debt. How do you propose that debt be paid off? ”
And who exactly is going to enforce that right now???? Who is going to knock on America’s door and say give my money or else?? Else what exactly???
I tend to have the Austrian outlook on economics so it colors my comments in a certain way when it comes to inflation. Look, you are correct in your observation about M3 growth, but that leads us to a fork in the road: Truly print more and not credit (M3) or Deflation and Credit Contraction.
The credit contraction has already started. What path do really think we are headed down if Bernanke hasn’t already cut rates?????
“Please, do we have to bring the Fuhrer into this?”
ROTFLOL
“OK, we are 40 trillion in debt. How do you propose that debt be paid off? We can start wit 100% income tax, but like many I will “retire” early, so without inflation how do you seriously propose wer get out of the pickle we are in”
Money doesn’t exist until it is borrowed into existence. You are suggesting the government borrow money to pay off the debt? How does that work?
Or, the privately owned Federal Reserve banks are going to print Federal Reserve Notes out of thin air and hand them out for free? To save our worthless a$$es? That would last about five minutes - then Zimbawbe-style inflation would hit and we’re f’d anyway.
There is no way to get out of the pickle we’re in - that’s why you NEVER start a monetary system with interest attached - because when the end of the line comes, you royally f*ck over your descendants.
So we go from the dot com bubble to the real estate bubble, what is the next great speculative frontier?
I don’t know.
But when I see ordinary people jumping on a bandwagon I know that it is time for me to jump off.
I know this.
I eat soup, I use toilet paper, and toothpaste (not the Chinese kind) and soap and shampoo.
And I drink beer.
My money is going to go to buying shares in products that people always use and always will.
It seems to me that people forget that stocks also pay dividends.
For the past few years that has been obscured by this ‘equity’ thing.
And nobody here seems to have anything to say about those carpet bagging vultures in the reverse mortgage market that are ’stealing’ that wealth shift that the Gen-Xer’s were expecting to get from their Boomer parents.
The problem with hyperinflation is two fold.
1) You wipe out a certain class of investors so poverty increases
2) Real econmic activity decreases as the medium of exchange is worthless
3) People don’t want to work because they are paid in a worthless medium
While it might save a few people with debt problems temporarily it would permanently cause the dollar to be disfunctional.
Hence the FED will probably create some inflation (lower rates) to help save the banks for the future. The bond investors will be dead. Offering more debt to people (What the FED does is offer more debt) is useless at this point and interest rates will go up.
SO the banks will be there after all the people lose their houses to restart the madness. Their will be some inflation and the middle class will be marginalized. Again.
Anyhow, looking for a 0.25-0.5 drop in rates that will push the dollar down. Interest rates will probably rise but not too much as cost of money will still be moderate.
@crisrose,
A 100% income tax (an exageration) means there is zero incentive for working. Any increase in taxation is disincentive tword real wealth generation (what work does).
Tax rates and inflation are eating the middle class along with global wage arbitration.
The total debt is kind of meaningless anyhow. A certain amount of failure is built into the system, so we should see a heck of a lot of it real soon.
Anyhow, its pretty useless to do any currency games. Basically currency games don’t get houses built, don’t pick crops and don’t pick up the garbage.
Its esentially a closed system and the point of the FED policy is stimulate real economic activity. Small amounts of inflationary policy spurs some economic activity. Greenspan made a dumb move at the end… don’t understand why.
Loosed the debt monster.
Unfortunatly globalization and unfair trade practices have unleashed a debt monster of epic proportions. This is just going to be ugly as bonds default or devalue and economic activity takes a dive.
Comment by JWM in SD
2007-08-04 14:34:00
“OK, we are 40 trillion in debt. How do you propose that debt be paid off? ”
And who exactly is going to enforce that right now???? Who is going to knock on America’s door and say give my money or else?? Else what exactly???
I tend to have the Austrian outlook on economics so it colors my comments in a certain way when it comes to inflation. Look, you are correct in your observation about M3 growth, but that leads us to a fork in the road: Truly print more and not credit (M3) or Deflation and Credit Contraction.
The credit contraction has already started. What path do really think we are headed down if Bernanke hasn’t already cut rates?????
EXACTLY. Thanks for talking sense, JWN in SD. It’s amazing how many people don’t realize that many foreign countries like China are indebted to the UNITED STATES because they buy our treasuries like there’s no tomorrow. In the current worldwide economic landscape they are more screwed than we are, and it has to do with THEIR monetary policies, not the other way around.
“The banks will not allow that.”
Oh, that’s a funny line. You guys really need to read up on the ’30’s, and find out what businesses will and won’t “allow” when everyone’s back is against the wall.
The funny thing about the inflation debate is that everybody wants a 10% raise at work every year but they don’t want inflation. Inflation isn’t bad. Not keeping up with inflation is bad. What do I care if inflation runs 60% a year if my income goes up 70% per year?
Inflation is only “out of control” when it overruns my income. If it overruns my neighbor’s income, then it is still okay. No?
No, because your job will get outsourced since your company’s margins will shrink with the inevitably higher cost of capital / hurdle due to high interest rates because no one is buying the dollar anymore.
Seriously, folks. Hyperinflation is not good!!!!!
Do you think your income will ever keep up with hyperinflation? We have gone from a nation of one-income families to two-income families, yet personal debt keeps growing. Do you see the trend?
Personal debt is growing because of human stupidity, not inflation.
How exactly is the M3 going from 5T in 2000 to an ‘estimated’ 12 T today not hyper inflation. Is inflation not defined as the rate of increase of the total money supply?
Nice one, cityboy. Inflation is so misunderstood. First off, other things being equal, inflation causes (real) debt to decrease, not increase.
The main reason inflation is bad is that it increases the standard deviation of both the expected investment returns to the lender and costs to the borrower, thus making capital markets less efficient. The higher the expected inflation rate, the wider the distribution of actual inflation around expected inflation, and thus the wider the range of returns or costs in borrowing or lending, causing both lenders and borrowers to become more cautious. This in turn leads to lower consumer and business confidence, which puts further downward pressure on real output, and thus real incomes.
At very high levels of inflation, fixed income markets become very inefficient, casino-like. This is why Brazil was up until the 1990s always forced to raise capital in international markets with dollar-denominated securities.
Inflation does not of itself somehow magically cause incomes to fall; it is the decline in output associated with inefficient capital markets and declining consumer confidence that causes (real) incomes to fall.
GH - (1) MV=PQ. You left out velocity and real output. Even holding velocity of money constant, you must net out the 3-4% a year of real output (Q) increases we have averaged during the period in question. (2). M3 is not the best measure of money; it is too broad; it is really more a measure of credit availability (”liquidity”), which is different than money. However, let’s assume it is for the sake of argument.
We now have, using your numbers, and normalizing our starting point to 1, an increase from 1 to 2.4 in 7 years. Therefore, 1.x^7=2.4, that is what rate of growth do we need compounded seven times to go from 1 to 2.4 in 7 years? x=a little over 13%. Now, sharing this between PQ - there is a compounding effect in the multiplication of these numbers as well - we get something just under 10%
I’m not agreeing with your numbers, but even if I do, I get a max of 10% inflation. That is not hyperinflation. In fact, in the “olden days,” only rapidly-accelerating inflation (triple-digits and above) was considered hyperinflation.
But perhaps, this is kind of like the new definition of “racism,” or “pun,” or “ironic,” or “infamous”; nobody knows what these words mean anymore; their meanings have been overextended to the point of meaninglessness.
Nobody is saying we are in hyperinflation today, but cutting rates to 1% will get us there. China already holds $1.5 trillion US$. Imagine if they dump that and stop buying more US debt. Taht would set off panic among the rest of Asia and the Arabs to start dumping their US$ and using some other currencies for transactions. The fall of the US$ could easily spin out of control and lead to hyperinflation.
Traditionally, inflation has been good because it meant incomes were going up. With outsourcing, our inflation is due to the falling dollar. There is no way for salaries to keep up with inflation anymore because management would rather ship your job overseas than give you a 7% annual raise. I don’t believe that personal debt is due to people spending stupidly. That might be 1 out of 10 families. To claim that nearly every American family is spending wildly is ridiculous. I don’t see that many Hummers and luxury cars in the parking lot at work. In the 1970’s most families had one income. How many families could survive today on one income? It’s nearly impossible for the average American to do that anymore.
Agreed Jerry. Some of us are just trying to stay afloat with the following items going up in price:
rent
Cheerios
milk
oj
toast
eggs
(and I haven’t even gotten to lunch)
health insurance
auto insurance
cable bill
cell phone bill
telephone bill
(okay maybe these aren’t necessities, but really can you do without at least one phone)
electricty (forced semi-annual increases by oligopolies supposedly overseen by “trusted” committees of my fellow citizens)
heat/gas
and let us not forget - TAXES (Federal, state, local, municipal, sales, use, utility, etc.)
So what does it matter how much a fictional basket of goods costs (the price of a sweater at the GAP on discount) - if I dont have a job then I am not worried about a sweater, I am worried about eating. And right about now, a whole bunch of people are going to be worried about eating. Keep your powder dry.
If inflation’s OK, I guess the effects of the Alternative Minimum Tax don’t matter much…
I made a similar post above…which I should have made here, but didn’t see this last string of posts.
China, India, etc., IN NO WAY will call in U.S. treasuries. If they do, their economies will be ravaged.
When foreign countries buy our treasuries, they are indebted to the United States government and the U.S. economy, not the other way around.
You realize inflation has the function of eating away at past income unless you are in an asset that tracks inflation.
Anyhow as the inflation gets high enough it becomes impossible for any significant economic activity to occur.
Since contracts are meaningless and past earnings are devalued since they were earned in those devalued dollars.
Anyhow, any increase in wages that does not corespond to increased productivity is inflation oure and simple.
At this point I’d prefer for the Treasury (NOT THE FED) to print money and hire people in the recession. That will cause wage inflation but shouldn’t dirrectly feed M3.
If you’re recently out of a job (say 2 years ago) and you’re already worried about not getting enough food to eat, then you were a dumbass with your money while you were working. $4 Starbucks lattes, meals out five days a week, cable television, buying clothes never worn, high-speed Internet, cigarettes and smokes cost A LOT of money. I’ve never seen so many of the “working poor” live so damn well in my life.
To people who fall into that category I say: tough. Get off your ass and go to work doing something other than you think you *deserve* to be doing. College educated and can’t find a job? Tough. Get a job delivering pizzas until you do. I did that for 5 months back in 1991, made $100 a day cash six days a week and ate free five days a week. Big whup.
I detest whiners who won’t take jobs that they feel are beneath them. There’s millions of them, too. Blue collar and white collar. All feel entitled.
At this point I’d prefer for the Treasury (NOT THE FED) to print money and hire people in the recession. That will cause wage inflation but shouldn’t dirrectly feed M3.
There is a huge amount of infrastructure in the US which needs to be maintained or replaced. A giant works program would not hurt, although I suspect Americans would not be doing much of it, so that most likely won’t work either.
Wow, the ignorance (sometimes) on this board is stunning. YOU CANNOT PRINT YOUR WAY TO WEALTH. When has that ever been true? Is Zimbabwe wealthy? According to GH they should be because they print trillions of dollars every day. Are Zimbabweans fully employed? No, why not since the government could simply print money and “hire” people with it.
And inflation is not an increase in money supply (strictly speaking) or in prices. Inflation is due to an increase in credit. Rising prices and particulary asset prices are a result of increasing credit (inflation) and not a cause of it.
“‘A lot of people here are tired of living check to check and they say, ‘My house has doubled in value and there’s a chunk of change just sitting there. I could take it and for once have a little money in my pocket,’ he said. ‘You see a lot of people driving Hummers around town and they probably make $15 an hour. That money came from their house.’”
Guffaw! Whatever happened to getting an education in something useful, working hard and getting raises / promotions every so often, saving 10% of your income every year, and then buying something special? $15 per hour, driving Hummers? I make much more than that and drive a modest economical Toyota.
Stupidity such as spending well beyond your means has to be punished. The way to do that is to absolutely forbid bailouts. They have to learn their lesson.
If only we could contain the damage to those who deserve it… many innocent by-standers will be hurt by this carnage.
And innocent bystanders that have been busily minding their nuts might just get the opportunity of a lifetime. “Do you have an excess of nuts”, is the real question?
Nice pun.
Since I just wrote something above related to this:
A pun is a play on words involving two words which share the same or similar sound but have different etymologies.
This is not a pun - “nuts” here derives from the same etymology; it is not a play on words.
“Janet Jackson gave a titillating performance at the Super Bowl” is a pun.
From Wikipedia:
A pun (also known as paronomasia) is a figure of speech, or word play which consists of a deliberate confusion of similar words within a phrase or phrases for rhetorical effect, whether humorous or serious. A pun can rely on the assumed equivalency of multiple similar words (homonymy), of different shades of meaning of one word (polysemy), or of a literal meaning with a metaphor.
Not since the operation.
a common scene in the central valley of CA. people working ag/manufacturing jobs have suddenly become wealthy. Cashed out their ATM houses and now will see the repercussions of their idyllic lifestyle to live “rich” on a $15/hour job. No sympathy from me. We drive 10 yr. old cars and could afford newer, but as others here we like to invest in appreciating goods.
A hummer and a house? Congratulations, now you’ve got two depreciating assets nobody is willing to buy. I hope the $15/hr job isn’t at Lowes or Home Depot, they’ll be laying off by the thousands in coming months.
What are the odds that both the Hummer and the house will be sent through a chop shop before they are turned back over to their rightful owners?
Around here they only pay about $9/hr.
“..a chunk of change just sitting there..”
..probably looks at his girlfriend and thinks the same thing. “Hit the bricks, baby.. im gonna get me a hummer.”
Anyway, he’s looking at a chunk of change but a chunk of debt is looking back at him.
Many didn’t learn their 3rd grade math. Unless you had “smart common sense” parents it’s a lost cause. Reality is a hard teacher but for many the only way they learn.
They should have bought 10 houses (cash back of 100K each), and walk away now. One Realtor bought 28 houses in Sacramento.
Pocket the money, walk away, and blame it on the predatory subprime lending. Greatest wealth transfer ever, from rich Bear-Stearns investors to common J6Ps. Who’s the smart guy now.
Of course if the FBI decides to start going after people (highly unlikely), then said person would have to leave the country…when global metldown starts, you may prefer to be here in the good ole USA…
Even with blunt comments like these from failed FB/ business owner, isn’t it amazing that the regional economists like John Husing and Jack Keyer can’t see the bubble? These guys are talking about the market picking up next year if the current median drops another 10%. What about the affordability?
Hopefully the lending standards will tighten soon!
I have always wondered whether the regional economists read blogs like this.
You just defined the difference between an adult, with powers of critical thinking, and a juvenile…regardless of age
Put down the crack pipe, you delusional moron. Education doesn’t mean anything, when companies won’t give you a chance to work for them. Maybe if you moved to China…
…….”,but at end of day ,it’s the consumer who signs on the dotted line,’he said .”
BUYER BEWARE …The real estate industry thinks they have no duty to prevent fraud ,or to put borrowers into loans they can afford . The industry thinks they can commit any bad faith act in the book, even appraisal fraud ,or lie about the loan ,but you signed on the dotted line ,so your the liable party .
I guess consumer protection laws and laws against misrepresentation and fraud don’t apply to the RE industry and they just apply to consumers and borrowers .Give me a break . While the industry often times feels they have it made in the shade if they get a borrower to sign on the dotted line by any bad faith means possible ,I contend that a lawyer could turn that concept up-side down ,if there is any proof of foul play .
conversely, buyers are wise to the scene too.. and are thinking they can probably weasle their way out of a contract if they have to.
Does anyone else think they might change laws on foreclosures like they did bankruptcys?
Cry me a river… Idiots and pigs deserve what’s coming to them.
Ex-Californian …. I have no pity for greedy borrowers that engaged in the real estate game and committed fraud and are now crying “foul” or trying to say they are a victim . These people deserve what they get . But, for the real estate industry to think that simply getting a borrower to sign puts all the liability back to the borrowers ,in spite of any bad faith act the industry engaged in to get the borrower to sign ,isn’t fair either .
I agree that the borrower has to be aware and protect themselves because the RE industry wants to blame the signer/borrower ,even if the industry commited bad faith acts in order to get the borrower to sign . Thats why I said ‘Buyer Beware “.
I’m sure they’ll eventually find some sympathetic juries that’ll agree.
Am I wrong in recollecting that the median sales price for August of 2006 was $725k in Orange County, CA? IIRC, that may make August 07 sales price numbers look pretty humbling w.r.t. last year.
‘A lot of people here are tired of living check to check and they say, ‘My house has doubled in value and there’s a chunk of change just sitting there. I could take it and for once have a little money in my pocket,’ he said. ‘You see a lot of people driving Hummers around town and they probably make $15 an hour. That money came from their house.’”
This is one aspect of the bubble that makes me nuts. “House money” isn’t income. IT’S F******* DEBT.
Unless of course you’ve sold for a nice profit and are happily renting now. That’s genuine house money -);
Exactly Lisa .
Right! The lending industry has worked very hard to make people think it’s just like taking your own money from a savings account. It’s really just a loan, a claim against your future earnings, secured by your house.
No different than credit card debt except a) the interest rate is lower, and b) if you don’t pay it, you get thrown out on the street.
I’m sleeping a lot better these days because of my ‘genuine’ house money
“what’s about to happen to the North Merced house a local business owner bought in 2000 for $135,000. As his home’s value nearly tripled, he refinanced several times and now owes $365,000. He took out loans to start a business that failed.”
———————————————
‘Start A Business’
translation:
refi
sleep til noon
hire someone to do the actual work
home office expenses writeoffs
entertainment writeoffs
brag about being a business owner
refi again
Thanks Ben for including one of my personal faves, Husing, in your entry. He’s been flapping his lips over the fabulous Inland Empire for the two years I’ve been reading your blog, and now, as it goes down in flames around him, his story is that those rich coastal types will be flocking to the IE to save the market. Do any of these “economists” have to take a breathalyzer before they’re quoted by these reporters?
“His story is that those rich coastal types will be flocking to the IE to save the market.”
And how many other markets are thinking the same thing? Locals can’t keep the market propped up, but there’s always someone “from the outside” that is going to ride to the rescue and bail out all the FB’s. Yeah right.
Buyers DO come from the outside when they think they’re getting a bargain on an “investment”. While many “investors” are still stuck with property, not many are trying to “invest” in property now. So those (previous) coastal buyers of IE property will wannabe selling, not buying.
Funny, it’s the rich coastal “investors” that drove prices up everywhere else. Husing has it backwards; they’re not the buyers, they’re the sellers!
chuckle…
So true. “coastal investors” are going to lose their shirt in the IE, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Baja, Mammoth, Reno, and a dozen other bubble locations.
I cannot wait for ski season at Mammoth this year… three years ago tons of hummers, crowded condos. Two years ago… same thing. Last ski season? Uncrowded, normal distribution of vehicles (but bad snow). I’m curious how it will be this year? (Both crowds and snow).
Got popcorn?
Neil
Yup….Those California equity refugees are enroute to the Rogue Valley as we speak..
This ain’t no party. This ain’t no disco. This ain’t no foolin’ around.
Rich coastal types flocking to the IE? I see people walking around here wearing T-shirts saying they will “never live east of the 405″. I don’t think so.
Amazing how bankruptcy will change attitudes. But when they pack up, they moving trucks aren’t stopping at the state line.
Oh… there is a level of snobbery further than “never live east of the 405.” That is “never live east of PCH.
Some will continue to afford that… Many won’t.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Yes, there is some snobbery involved, but mostly the quality of life in the IE is just really miserable by comparison, the culture is different, and it’s just not on the map for many people. I would say if a WLA person lost their house to foreclosure they’d be more likely to either stay around here and rent, buy a small condo, or leave the state, I just don’t picture them going that far east unless they’re crossing the state line.
Yes, IE is worse than WLA, but WLA is no place for a quality of life, unless traffic, smog, animosity, crowds, tract homes, malls, and road rage are your thing. Ever since DogTown disbursed LA has been a disaster.
Most will jump the state line. They have too, the only jobs in the IE require spanish to be your first language.
“never live east of PCH.’
- I agree. I have spent most of my 42 years in CA west of PCH.
Now that is classic! I’ve never really thought about this but I have too… Remember ol Beach bum Burts?
‘Beach Bum Burts!’
- Remember it well. My soon to be wife and I would dine there when we were dating! We loved that place. Her folks were members of the King Harbor Yacht club, so we also dined at the Chart House.
I work about three blocks from the Redondo Pier.
I lived (ahem) east of PCH near Torrance and Anza, so several more blocks away from the King Harbor. My favorite place - Kincaids.
The climate there is the best in the world, IMHO. However I am ruled now by making money rather than living in paradise. May be a time when I could not find work, but will be able to at least live where I want for 5 to 7 years without needing a job. I’d be biking the strand every day after a 2 mile swim. At night I’d be barhopping HB Pier like I did every Thursday for a few years.
The Fla. equivalent is east of the intracoastal, and then east of AIA.
Never live west of the Hudson! or at least, well, the Allegheny
Is there anything west of the Hudson? I try not to even look over that way.
I’ll give you a hint. It looks like Long Island.
“Rich coastal types” won’t save the market, it will be legal and illegal immigrants, at least according to this article.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070730/immigrant_homebuyers.html?.v=2&.pf=real-estate
Here’s a quote from the article:
“In 2000, the most common surnames among U.S. homebuyers were Smith, Johnson, Brown, Williams and Miller. In 2005, Rodriguez and Garcia bumped out Brown and Miller, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego firm which analyzed deeds and county assessment data records across most of the U.S.”
Wonderful. It now appears that we not only have a large illegal immigration problem but soon we’ll have an angry one since many bought at the top but as soon as their mortgages reset they’ll start losing their houses.
Here’s another quote:
“There are not going to be enough white, native-born people to buy all those homes,” said Myers, the USC professor. “We face this issue of a generational housing bubble. Immigrant homebuyers are going to be much more important in the future. It’s their kids that are going to be the ones who save us when the baby boomers are going to retire.”
More illegal aliens please, we have to keep the housing bubble going and pay for the baby boomers’ retirements.
Yes, these millions of illiterate, uneducated peons with 8 kids will save the country. I wonder why they couldn’t save Mexico or Honduras or El Salvador? I’m sure they’ll come here to buy up all those $500,000 houses and bail out SS and Medicare. Give me a freaking break.
I was having lunch at JJ’s Chinese resturaunt off Alameda in Denver yesterday and was seated next to a banquet table. There were 12 mainland Chinese discussing the properties that they had seen during their Denver visit and comparing notes on the cities and neighborhoods. $100,000 to $500,000; Greely, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, Denver downtown condos vs Greenwood Village…..all very loud and boisterious. There was also talk of how some of them had done well in Shanghai and Peking RE and how cheap Colorado RE seemed. Someone, probably a local, did advise them that RE was a long term play and not to expect miracles. Maybe they are here for the Denver RE auctions on Saturday.
Rex: I don’t think they did very well in Peking RE. That city hasn’t existed for a number of years
The illegal aliens’ kids will save us when the boomers retire? Okay. The children of farm laborers and janitors will all go to taxpayer-financed schools and get taxpayer financed special college aid and become the very same engineers, accountants, and doctors that will be able to afford the retired boomers’ homes.
Phooey! Not going to happen. Instead you would see 5 families per house, low rider cars, dope dealers, gangstas, and loud accordion music blaring out of open windows next to the few remaining single families in those neighborhoods.
Beautiful sight. Could come true if we let down our guard. They tried twice within a month to pass the Immigration Bill and force it on the unwilling American public.
And reports from the Wash Post and NYTimes this week say various parts of the bill are being reintroduced in Congress.
Like a blood-sucking vampire.
It depresses me too much for look for a link, but you can google it.
in a bad economy illegals will be the first to feel the hunger pangs and, if they stay anyway and continue to leach resources, the wrath of angry natives.
The Illegal Alien Bubble may have come to an end.
“The Illegal Alien Bubble”
Wow, now that you mention it, that IS a bubble. We see that bubble around here, for sure. It went hand in hand with the housing bubble. Illegals would come supposedly to work in agriculture, but most left agriculture for construction and housing related work as soon as they could. And are not going back to agriculture, either, not if they can help it. Especially since a lot of agricultural land was lost to development, anyway.
Agreed Bill. But unfortunately, I believe the decision has already been made to let them all stay and thus lower our standard of living and water-down what little democracy we had left…
California Boxer and Feinstein voted for this bill.
The bill also raises H1B visa from 73,000 to 140,000 per year.
In 5 years, there could be 700,000 H1B Indians in BA.
Ken : the H1Bs are different caliber of immigrants to undeducated min wage seekers.
If Indian, they will likely be their best bachelor’s degrees whom come to US to get a Masters degree. If so, they already come from a family with money.
With that Master’s degree they will have 1 year to find H1B. I personally have no problem with H1’s as I say they are an assett.
I do have a problem with uncontrolled illegal immigration.
Of course, they drive Americans out of IT jobs by lowering salaries, and by being tied to one employer, so that you have a more docile, evern servile employee. But hey, why should American senators care about their own citizens, it’s Microscoft, Oracle and the like who own the Senate, not the people. Hilbil is also talking out of both sides of her mouth on this…making cooing noises to working Americans and promising fat cats at private fundraising dinners that she is in favor of “unlimited” HB-1. Is any other country undermining its own citizens with such vigor and glee??
I work in the tech industry, and H1B’s are a two edged sword. On the one hand, America is a land of immigrants, and we *should* welcome more people into our country legally, and make it easy for them to return home to effect political change there also.America should be the land of opportunity for everyone.
On the other hand, there really is no need for more tech people. I see first hand lots of tech people ready to move up and take better jobs. Many companies just don’t wat to pay. But… whatever. You gotta fight for your right to party…
Even Gerry Lopez moved to Bend, OR.
“Husing suggested that a reduction in the new-home median to about $380,000 in the Inland Empire, a decline of 13.6 percent from last fall’s peak, would re-establish their market.
That was exactly what I was thinking along with a doubling of annual salaries.
Seriously, where do these people come from. in 2000, a really nice home could be purchased for around $150K. 380K is a mile out of line with rents and incomes. Lenders will set property values moving forward though by how much they are willing to lend based on income…
I’ve been very surprised to see several homes with “Sold” signs on them in my Santa Clara CA neighborhood. I notice that prices have come down by several tens of thousands of dollars…apparently enough to make some people think these reduced-price houses are now “bargains”.
In Santa Clara County, this last week, both http://www.foreclosure.com and http://www.realtytrac.com posted what might be record pre-foreclosures, at least since I started tracking foreclosures in June 2007. The foreclosure.com site said on August 2 there were 1806 pre-foreclosures (aka notice of default), and on August 3, realtytrac said there were 2380 pre-foreclosures. (The realtytrac site nearly always has higher numbers for some reason.) After tracking foreclosures in Santa Clara County for 2 months, on avg, there are 463 foreclosures on any given day. That’s not a yrly total, as over time, each day some foreclosures are being resolved by bank sales or whatever, while at the same time, new ones pop up.
Bay area and Seattle markets have “reality distortion fields” surrounding them. Tough nuts to crack.
San Fran RE is still going strong…what gives? Anyone have any data about the city? I know that outside SF prices are dropping.
near as i can figure, the City is experiencing pretty much the same things as other established, high-priced, desirable areas where inventory increase from overbuilding was not much of a factor.
As of a couple weeks ago, sales down about 10%.. Median price up about 4% YOY.
Buyer vs Seller standoff blah blah blah..
Data Quick
http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0707.shtm
IMO SF, being at the top of the Bay Area heap, will hang in there longer than everything below/around it.. and it’s pain will be delayed until surrounding areas crumble. A few cracks in the foundation have already appeared.
Following this bubble deflation is kinda like watching the grass grow.. seems to take forever if you keep a close eye on it. It’ll need mowing soon enough.
“desirable areas where inventory increase from overbuilding was not much of a factor”
SF has seen fabulous quantities of building, with condo conversions going up all over the place near downtown. I have to wonder why people keep ignoring these gigantic buildings that are blotting out the sky there…
sold signs..
I wonder if a Realtor would pay me to stick one of his Sold signs in my front garden.. makes for great advertising.. hmm.. lets say $50 a week.. $100 a week if i have to lie to anyone about it.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=452808336
Don’t know if this has been posted but Kramer did a meltdown on TV. And we are supposed to feel sorry for Wall St. who stoked the fires of destruction. They have become death, the destroyer of worlds!
Oh yeah, it’s been posted.
Meltdown doesn’t quite describe it. That was the biggest temper tantrum I’ve seen a grown man pull.
The more I see it the more I think it’s staged. Erin Burnett is a tool. I’m sure she gladly acted as a prop to his stupidity.
im not into conspiracies.. perhaps hundreds of people would have to know about it to pull that off.
A simpler explanation is the ground under some of his stuff suddenly turned to quicksand.. and, instead of remaining calm, he can’t control the natural instinct to flail around.
As other posters have noted, I think it was staged myself, he amped the crazy factor as he kept going…hoping to lure some more suckers into the market on Monday, so he and his pals can sell into any rally. Remember, this is the boy who bragged on video back in Jan. how he used to manipulate the markets…same tiger, same stripes.
first time i saw his show was from way across a large room.. i looked for a few seconds and wondered “Why are they watching an infomercial?”
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-08-04 13:45:26
The more I see it the more I think it’s staged. Erin Burnett is a tool. I’m sure she gladly acted as a prop to his stupidity.
I’m gonna agree with NYCboy on this one. That video reminded me of a Howard Stern episode where Bababooey got into a fight with Beetlejuice.
I’ve never seen this idiot’s show but found it very entertaining. If it was staged, man, good job ya boob! All that makes me want to do is short the market — ooh wait, I already did that recently with QID. Gotta love them reverse ETFs.
rob
Bob Brinker on the radio right now BEGGING the FED to drop rates.
GMAFB! This guys says the economy is great then claims the FED needs to drop rates - You can’t have it both ways Bob!
I freaked out last Thursday and liquidated a lot of foreign bond positions. Have put a few bucks back in them since then. If the Fed reduces rates I am going to be all out of USD as far as I can possibly manage. What a bogus currency.
Yup…I tried to talk to him about the possibility of prime rates going up due to mounting NODs in prime and investors bailing even prime (this was just after Countrywide said that there are problems), but his response was that prime equals quality, so no worries.
–
Now we know who are serving Wealth Street’s interests. Both Brinker and Cramer know where their paychecks come from and who there brethren are.
Jas
Speaking of Cramer, here’s a temp mix I just threw together, good for laugh in a serious situation: http://idisk.mac.com/cniss8-Public/speaksoftly.mp3
Groovin’ to the meltdown, I like it!
Watching all of these videos as listening to the music has my wife thinking I’m weird and obsessed…
Got popcorn?
Neil
This hilarious, I liked it!
Agreed Jas.
“Rich coastal types” won’t save the market, it will be legal and illegal immigrants, at least according to this article.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070730/immigrant_homebuyers.html?.v=2&.pf=real-estate
Here’s one quote from the article:
“In 2000, the most common surnames among U.S. homebuyers were Smith, Johnson, Brown, Williams and Miller. In 2005, Rodriguez and Garcia bumped out Brown and Miller, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego firm which analyzed deeds and county assessment data records across most of the U.S.”
Wonderful. It now appears that we not only have a large illegal immigration problem but soon we’ll have an angry one since many bought at the top but as soon as their mortgages reset they’ll start losing their houses.
Here’s another quote:
“There are not going to be enough white, native-born people to buy all those homes,” said Myers, the USC professor. “We face this issue of a generational housing bubble. Immigrant homebuyers are going to be much more important in the future. It’s their kids that are going to be the ones who save us when the baby boomers are going to retire.”
More illegal aliens please, we have to keep the housing bubble going and pay for the baby boomers’ retirements.
“many of the homes on the market now aren’t really for sale, that homeowners have seen big sale prices and are hoping to cash in. If they can’t get their price, they won’t sell.”
That was true last year…this year, not so much. (There are, however, still *some* fishing expedition listings).
“‘You’re going to see existing inventory gradually dwindle down over the next 12 to 18 months,’ he said. ‘We’ll be dealing with a better market from the seller’s point of view than we’re experiencing today.’”
Finally, the voice of reason. The magic real estate fairy will wave her magic wand and the magic mortgage pixie will sprinkle cheap credit dust over the land, and all will be well. Now close your eyes and click your heels three times and say “real estate only goes up,” “there’s no better time to buy than now,” “buy now or be priced out forever,” “they’re not making land anymore”…..
“Numerous sources have suggested that many of the homes on the market now aren’t really for sale, that homeowners have seen big sale prices and are hoping to cash in. That has led Redlands-based regional economist John Husing to call the trend in existing home prices ’sticky downward.’”
WAIT A SEC!!!!!!
I bought for $130K, current comp price is $250K, but rent says it should be worth about $150K. I decide to put it on the market for $250K, but won’t go below $220K. $220K - $20K closing costs means I sould be able to net $50K from renting a couple years. I decide it isn’t worth the hastle of selling, moving, renting, buying for les than $50K profit.
Next door neighbor bought 1.5 years ago I/O ARM for $250K with $5K down just to cover closing costs, so he owes $250K. He’s willing to take a small tax hit in a short sale of as low as $230K. Will let the bank take it for less than that.
Co-worker has a house he bought for $150K a few years ago, that had a peak price of $300K. 6 months ago put a $15K deposit on a new home. He the old house on the market 6 months ago at $310K, but got no interest. Dropped the to $300K, then $290K, then $280K…. still no interest. New house is about to close, and if he doesn’t sell the old house for $280K, he can’t afford the new house. Decides to rent out the old house to generate cash flow while waiting for the market to recover.
How are ANY of these more responsible for “sitcky prices” than any of the other? Fact is, there are lots of people unwilling to sell for a lot less than near peak prices.
They will only sell for less when they are forced to sell for less. And that clock is ticking away.
That’s right. It brings to mind the dot coms’ cash burn period before they collapsed en masse.
BTW, neighbor is having maybe the third garage sale of the year so far. I have the feeling they are trying to replace their lost home equity wealth effect with regular sales of the old junk lying around their home. Somehow I don’t think the garage sales are going to quite make up the difference.
But it will make the foreclosure moving process less painful. Pass on the losses, sell the junk!
I’m thinking e-bay will move a lot of “stuff” over the next 2 years.
Got popcorn?
Neil
It’s not a question of patience, it’s a question to survive or not. Like on the Titanic, jump now and have a chance to find a place on a rescue boat or wait and sink with the ship.
“Like on the Titanic, jump now and have a chance to find a place on a rescue boat”
only to find said boat was only for display - not for actual use…LMAO
On the Titanic analogy…
We’re in a large life boat, plenty of jackets, blankets, water, food, wine, coffee, and a nice little stove going. The passengers are yelling for us to pull up to the ship. We’re wisely far out of the spash/suction zone sinking ships create. Being out on the water, we see/hear the ship breaking up and watch parts and people fall into the water.
Its only a question of when, not if, the ship goes under. Ohh… fresh coffee… a fresher please.
It might sound cynical, but the time to fix anything is long gone. Now its just time to watch what happens. Oh, if you can still get a lifeboat, you should grab a jacket, water, and a case or two of wine.
Got popcorn?
Neil
… and the band kept playing till the end.
‘Income data would seem to support that,’ he said. ‘But this logic misses the fact that a large share of inland buyers come from Southern California’s coastal counties where mean incomes are much higher.’”
- Husing is a loser. The Inland Empire is mostly illegals now. It is laughable that he would even suggest the coastal folks are cashing out and moving there.
Why not. They can enjoy the cultural diversity, the non-stop mariachi music, the roar of low-riders, the tagging, the sound of gunfire in the evening. What’s not to like?
Heck, you didn’t even mention my favorite part: 110 degrees in the summer, chilly and windy in the winter, and nothing growing.
This May, my neighbor put her Santa Clara townhouse (a TOWNHOUSE!) on the mkt for $600,000. I tried to explain that it is a buyer’s mkt, and if she really wanted to sell, she needed to drop her price. She said her realtor told her that housing was tight in Santa Clara and it was a seller’s mkt!
Two months later, she got an offer for $575,000, &I told her to take it! She said, no, with it being a seller’s mkt, she could get more.
Now I see that she has dropped the price to $585,000. With credit tightening, I bet if her house sells, it may be for less than $575,000.
She’s a wonderful person, and we’re good friends, but I notice she hasn’t contacted me ever since she lowered the price. She’s probably afraid I’ll say, “I told you so!” … so I must resist doing so by clamping down hard on my tongue.
“She’s a wonderful person, and we’re good friends, but I notice she hasn’t contacted me ever since she lowered the price. She’s probably afraid I’ll say, “I told you so!” … so I must resist doing so by clamping down hard on my tongue.”
Give me her phone number and I will give her a singing “I told you so” telegram. I will even put on a bunny suit if I have to.
LOL.
The funny thing is, I’ve heard her deplore the greed she sees in others, but yet she wants to get the most she can out of a townhouse in which she’s lived only 5 yrs and in which she’s made few improvements. (The poem “To a Louse” by Robert Burns comes to mind.)
” I will even put on a bunny suit if I have to. . . . ”
Why not spin a sign or two on some corners to pick up some extra cash on the way over ? Costumes add that extra freak-factor, and people always wonder if some curvaceous hunie is under the bunny . .. !!
If she’s a good friend, call her, to break the ice. Just don’t mention anything about housing. It’s not the type of situation to lose a friend over.
“Numerous sources have suggested that many of the homes on the market now aren’t really for sale, that homeowners have seen big sale prices and are hoping to cash in. If they can’t get their price, they won’t sell…..”
Hmmm, strange, they never quote their “sources.” This is the famous “testing the market” myth that has been around for the last few years. They never say what these sellers would do if some greater fool actualy buys their house. Do the sellers then start shopping or do they have an everlasting contingecy on tap?
“Of course, seasonal trends aren’t the only factors in play. Since May, it has become significantly more difficult for buyers to get their hands on the New Age mortgage products that were crucial to enabling them to pay San Diego prices. There’s a very good chance that it will become yet more difficult in the months ahead.”
New Age mortgage products are a bit hard to come by when so many New Age lenders (like New Century) have gone belly-up.
Anyone else see the broker’s forums Piggington listed?
http://piggington.com/broker_outpost
I’ve been reading the Broker Outpost forum for a few weeks now. The change in the tone of the posts in the last few days is interesting.
Even though I’m losing my home, I’m not a victim.’”
Yea! you are just plain stupid! You if anyone, should have understood the game. Simpathy is found between $hit and Suicide in the dictionary.
Does anybody else want to touch this one? I think Dennis needs a new dictionary.
hmm.. abcdefg… hijk.. uvwxyz?
Sorry nyc, but I symply see nothing wrong with it…
Simp…simpleton…simpathy?
sympathy: found between shit and syphilis
“sympathy: found between shit and syphilis ”
Same place you find a Realtwhore’s taint.
No results found for simpathy.
Did you mean sympathy (in dictionary) or Sympathy (in encyclopedia)?
ROTFLMAO!
you people seam boarded..
“Simpathy is found between $hit and Suicide in the dictionary.”
HA HA! Too funny. You should change the “Wiktionary” to agree with you.
Reading this board used to be like viewing through a crystal board … now I feel as if I’m reading a history book.
The housing market deterioration accelerated unimaginably last week, and will continue to do so this week, barring a strong move by the Fed.
make that “crystal ball”
That’s what Cramer was getting on about — the dam just broke, but down in the valley everyone is gathering for dinner…
He’s been around long enough to know what it means when Beazer is a bankruptcy candidate, AAA-rated debt is trading at 90 and in freefall, and American Home vaporizes overnight.
The fact of the matter is a silly Fed cut wouldn’t help anything, but it would probably add a dollar collapse to the list of problems.
Yahoo getting paid to help troll for the last fools with a box of stupid money?
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/best_places_to_flip_a_home.html
A few feet away, a woman cried behind her sunglasses over the Los Banos house she was losing.”
I would be hiding too if I was losing a house in a place called “The Toilet”. And the town really does have the strong odor of bovine fecal matter for those folks who have not had the privilege of driving through this POS town.
If she can’t afford “The Toilet”, maybe she can move to “LARD” (The town of Manteca. See the Wikipedia about the name, which means lard in Spanish http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manteca%2C_California)
Is everyone really willing to sell? This house on my block was for sale today.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tppllc/1010978067/
At that price, I’m not sure if they’re willing to sell!
what a joke 1.4 M…that place needs a 1.2 M haircut….except there still are idiots that will buy this of they can get a loan. Check out the description….Professionally Landscaped….translation a hardworking mexican comes by every couple weeks and mows the lawn
Is there a whitewater view from the backyard they forgot to mention?
Wells Fargo is putting all of these fantasies on ice Monday morning when fixed-rate jumbo mortgages will rise to 8%. Welcome to the ghoulden state.
There are plenty of people in this area who can pay cash. (The Googleairs) But not *that* many. It’s a beautiful neighborhood, but people have lost track of how much $1.4Million should buy.
Sorry to say those Palo Alto Mt View homes were only selling for under 200K 10 years ago. 1M for 1100 sq ft? Thats nuts!
Look .. the Idiots walk around saying they work in Google and the Realtors fleece them for every nickel they made from stock options. This has happened before from 2000 stock options mania, and that first bubble needs to be corrected. There wont be any new Google or Dot.com millionaires to support a RE market in SV.
They use other multiple bids scheme to make the buyers believe they must over bid by 10-20% .. .this has been happening in Silicon Valley since for 8-9 years.
I know sellers who received 1 offer and its always 10-15% over asking. The buyers here are always being told there are multiple offers yet no comfirmation is ever made. All of this during a period of sales cut in half and and inventory up 100%… Go figure whats happening here.
I don’t think people are bidding more than asking price any more.
I think I will move to San Francisco and look at 20 properties. Then I will make them all write me a letter telling me about their house, struggles and family. Why do they want to sell? Then I will demand that they come back to feed the squirrels.
Within a month of putting her two-bedroom house in San Francisco on the market recently, homeowner Linda Gao had five offers, each one above her asking price of $699,000. So before accepting the most-attractive bid, she threw in an extra condition: If you want to buy my house, you have to feed the squirrels.
Two weeks later, she and the buyer hammered out a contract that included feeding the backyard wildlife, which Ms. Gao has done three times a week for the past two years. “I don’t think it matters if it’s a buyer’s market or a seller’s market,” Ms. Gao says. “Anyone with a good heart would feed them.”
Indeed, when Susan Butler was negotiating to buy Ms. Gao’s San Francisco property, she was resigned to the feeding schedule. “At that point, I said, ‘Yeah, what the hell, I’ll feed the squirrels,’” she said. She signed a contract in April, paying $815,000 — or $116,000 over the asking price. Will Ms. Butler actually feed her new furry friends? “Probably not,” says the college administrator. “I don’t want to encourage other rodents.”
Just having a college education does not protect you from stupid decisions.
–
“Just having a college education does not protect you from stupid decisions.”
Actually, it helps in making stupid decisions. Arrogance of knowledge is the best facilitator of stupidity. For really stupid economic and investment decisions one needs a PH.D. in economics.
Jas
Agreed… nor does having too much money.
Here in Silicon Valley people with too much money
from the Dot.com bubble blew away their Lotto winnings
and overpaid for dinky homes by 1M dollars. You can see 70s condos which were only 90K 10 years ago being purchased for 1M by Google employees…
Stupid.. arrogant idiots… they will learn.
Squirrels ?..What squirrels….More Stew ?:)
Have them camp out at your front door the night before.
squirrels have a few redeeming qualities that might make them worth feeding.. For instance, some “are known to eat passerine birds like cardinals and blue jays”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodents
Make them eat squirrel.
Squirrels are the main ingredient in Alligator Chow ™.
what a joke 1.4 M…that place needs a 1.2 M haircut….except there still are idiots that will buy this of they can get a loan
exactly the reason I left the hellhole place known as the Bay area. And I saw some of the idiots that were taking suicide loans to buy such properties. I couldn’t picture buying one for half that price earlier with 3x the income some of the bozos that really bought them for did. Got a much bigger house in Albuquerque for 1/5 the cost. Paying for this one is high enough.
I would recommend BBQing the squirrels. Need some extra protein after making the monthly nut payment. Especially after it resets to $10K per month.
I have a 1998 Dodge Stratus, 225k miles. I put a For Sale sign in the rear window:$20,000 FIRM and my cell number. Two days and this guy calls:
Me: hello
He: are you the freaking idiot selling a pos dodge for 20k?
Me: Yep
He: are you freaking crazy?
Me: I have two offers, would you like to join the bidding, sir?
He freaked out. As if he already hadn’t.
Now that IS FUNNY.
Your story just made my weekend
I like your sense of humor! LOL
LOL You do have proof of the other offers?
And in the mania no one confirms if the other so called bids are real?
Inflation vs Deflation
My guess is there will be both. The only thing the US gov could do to prevent the collapse of housing is to cut every middle class American a big check. If they drop the overnight lending rate it will signal their concern about the economy the dollar will collapse even further and long term borrowing costs will rise. If they print money and spend it, on war and waste, or even infrastructure or something worthy it will kill any rebound in manufacturing by causing wage inflation and the dollar will collapse.
My guess is there will be massive deflation in terms of housing and domestic consumption and inflation in commodities if the world economy has any legs otherwise that may fall as well. Then after massive job losses congress will slap trade sanctions on China and others who will respond by dumping bonds. The dollar collapses further and we have to depend on our own to produce goods so there will then be massive inflation in manufactured goods, but commodities might fall as the dollar bottoms and world consumption of goods collapses. Invest in soup, as there will be many soup lines.
“As his home’s value nearly tripled, he refinanced several times and now owes $365,000.”
Why does any newspaper print “facts” like this. The only way one’s home value can triple is if you SELL it for 3x what you paid, after compensating for inflation adjusted dollars.
But it was “sold”. The bank “bought” the property when they extended loans based on it’s increased collateral value.
My guess is it was the Bank of Greater Fools.
Another four hedge funds blowing up here due to subprime:
http://tinyurl.com/yuj6pl
NEW YORK (Reuters) — Second Curve Capital LLC, the fund group managed by high-profile financial stock investor Thomas Brown, has been hammered by ongoing problems in the subprime lending sector, where he has been outspokenly bullish in the past.
Four funds in the Second Curve portfolio are down between 38 percent to 42 percent in the year through July, according to investors who have seen the numbers.
Repeated calls and e-mails to Brown were not returned. It is unclear how much money the firm has under management.
“We are experiencing home price depreciation almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression,” Angelo Mozilo, chief executive officer of Countrywide Financial Corp., said last week in a conference call after the biggest U.S. mortgage lender reported a 33 percent decline in second-quarter net income because of late loan payments.
Maybe that means we are going to have another Great Depression?
Check this Craigslist out.
http://baltimore.craigslist.org/lgl/384644613.html?ref=patrick.net
“..we own over 30 Properties in own names..”
oh yeah.. attorneys will be crawling over each other to get into this guy’s deep pockets.. not.
I always love to see posters recall the insanity of 2005 when seller Linda Gao demanded that the squirrels be fed as a condition for the privilege of paying $115,000 over asking price for her SF house.
But I don’t understand why that anecdote is the only one that gets the attention. The same article carries on with these gems:
“Home-buyer Allison Love figured the process wouldn’t be about anything but the financials, and when she bid $235,000 for a three-bedroom Craftsman-style home in Tempe, Ariz., she expected the sellers to respond with a simple counteroffer or rejection. Instead, they invited her over for a 20-minute interrogation around the kitchen table. “So, why do you want to buy my house?” the sellers inquired, asking as well what Ms. Love would bring to the community, and whether she would participate in neighborhood watches. “The last thing I expected was to be interviewed for a home,” says Ms. Love, a 32-year-old elementary-school teacher. “You’re at the seller’s mercy.”
I think an intrusive personal interview is worse than being asked to feed some cute squirrels. And then there was this:
“Claire Golden was willing to take the risk. She didn’t care who the potential buyers were — but she did want to know what they planned to do with her house. The San Antonio retiree lived in a modern cedar-and-glass three-bedroom she and her late husband built in 1959, and she wanted a buyer that would keep it the way she left it. “It was an emotional tie,” she said. “I just didn’t want the house changed.”
WTF? She wants me to pay her a fortune in fake “price appreciation,” make her rich for doing nothing, go into debt up to my eyeballs and then I have to keep the frigging house the way it was for all time because of her “emotional tie”?
It wasn’t just the squirrels that were getting fed in 2005; it was the arrogant whims of sellers.
New poster…no RE expert..my buddy said come here
I have to buy a house within the next 3-4 months in the inland empire Southern California…..Prices for new homes seem to average $145-200 per square foot…I’m in the 300k-350k range
A major builder changed his prices 3 days ago…New development 30 homes left in final phase…
$105 per sq ft!!!!!like a 40% drop?
Showed it to the other developments I went to and They all said something like holy shit…no fin way….and then proceeded to copy my pricing sheet and tell me that it must only be an anomoly…because were doing fine…slow but fine….
Is this the first break in the dam????
although i agree, a smart buyer should be aware of a seller’s emotional needs.. Emotion clouds good judgment.
You and hubby built it?
Trust me lady.. i’m gonna take good care of your house. Nope, I won’t change a thing. Now, if you’ll just sign right.. here.
I have to buy a house within the next 3-4 months in the inland empire Southern California…..Prices for new homes seem to average $145-200 per square foot…I’m in the 300k-350k range
Holy Macanoly…a major builder changed his prices 3 days ago…New development 30 homes left in final phase…
$105 per sq ft!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!like a 40% drop?????????
Showed it to the other developments I went to and They all said something like holy shit…no fin way….and then proceeded to copy my pricing sheet and tell me that it must only be an anomoly…because were doing fine…slow but fine….
Is this the first break in the dam????
“That has led Redlands-based regional economist John Husing to call the trend in existing home prices ’sticky downward.’”
Remind me, how many years ago was it someone on this blog remarked, “Housing prices tend to be sticky on the way down”?