The Pluses Are In The Buyer’s Favor
The Nogales International reports from Arizona. “Nogales Real Estate Broker Gabriel Gastelum said a housing glut in Santa Cruz County is due to the fact that property values soared on an upward spiral that began about three years ago, peaked and is now leveling off to more realistic prices. Gastelum said his firm (has) an inventory of about 100 homes vs. the firm’s average of 15-18 homes for sale.”
“‘In 26 years I have never seen anything like this. Yeah, the phones are ringing,’ he said. ‘But when the phone rings it’s not because the callers are interested in buying a home. Sellers are calling to complain because their homes have not sold.’”
“County Assessor Felipe Fuentes said Santa Cruz County was late in feeling the effects of the housing boom and cheap credit and ‘we’ll probably be among the last ones to level off.’ He said valuations have decreased between 10 percent and 15 percent since January.”
“Many of the Rio Rico Properties’ buyers ‘had to walk away from deals’ because they lost or were unable to secure funding. Others relocating from other states, particularly from California have been unable to sell their houses back home and as such cannot assume another mortgage, said Ruth Walsh, sales director for Rio Rico Properties.”
The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “As Gilbert’s Agritopia community nears buildout on its first phase, even the niche subdivision is feeling the recent housing-market downturn. The development, known for its features that promote neighborhood interaction, has reduced home prices to compete in the sluggish market.”
“‘I certainly think the pluses are in the buyer’s favor,’ said said Christa Marten, a sales associate (who) is selling the Agritopia home sites.”
“Now, Scott Communities is offering $40,000 discounts on new homes as a buyer incentive. And it was knocking off $45,000 off a handful of existing homes available when their original deals were canceled.”
“The price cuts at Agritopia have dropped the development’s cottage models to the $210,000-$250,000 range. ‘Those types of incentives are not unusual’ said Ben Sage, Arizona director for Metrostudy. ‘The market’s pretty slow right now.’”
The Review Journal from Nevada. “Slow home sales and declining prices haven’t stopped owners from putting their properties up for sale in Las Vegas.”
“More than 5,600 single-family homes were added to the MLS in July, bringing the inventory to a record 24,087, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported. That’s up 18.8 percent from a year ago.”
“Sales activity dropped 34 percent from a year ago to 1,318 transactions in July and the median price fell 4.8 percent to $295,000, the first time it’s gone below $300,000 since April 2005.”
“‘Obviously it’s extremely competitive,’ said association President Devin Reiss. ‘Buyers have lots of options. Of course, most important is price. You can price it at the one-year price, the six-month price or the one-day price.’”
“A public auction of 90 bank-owned homes in Las Vegas attracted 2,500 people Sunday, Dave Webb of Dallas-based Hudson & Marshall said. Bidders purchased 87 of the homes at an average of 80 percent to 85 percent of the list price, Webb said.”
“The homes are under contract for sale, but still must be approved by the bank.”
“‘All you’ve really accomplished by being the high bidder is the right to have the bank consider your offer,’ said Andrew Pugh (who) said he attended the auction. ‘So you can go research these homes ahead of time, attend the auction and be the high bidder and the bank can still say, ‘No thanks.’ I don’t see how you’re any better off than just making an offer through an agent.’”
In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “Investors and house hunters looking for a bargain will converge Sunday in what’s touted as the largest foreclosure auction since Nevada gained its title as the nation’s foreclosure capital.”
“Past auctions have been much smaller and the reserve price “has been closer to the market price, said Michael Krein, president of Nevada Real Estate Services who manages about a dozen properties up for auction.”
“Krein said 90 percent of his properties on the market didn’t sell because the reserve prices were too high. ‘I think they are going to be more aggressive this time,’ Krein said. ‘There might be one for 80 cents on the dollar. You don’t know.’”
“The 25,208 Nevada foreclosure filings through June involved 14,687 properties, (RealtyTrac) reported. That’s more than double the number of foreclosures reported during the second half of 2006 and nearly triple the number reported during the first half of 2006, the firm reported.”
“Hudson & Marshall spokeswoman Crystal Wright, wouldn’t disclose the reserve prices but said some of the properties could sell 20 to 30 percent below market price. That was the case at a recent auction in Northern California, she said.”
“‘It is a sign of the times and economic situation that is occurring nationwide,’ Wright said. ‘There is a struggling real estate market and there is a huge surge in foreclosures. It is a perfect storm for buyers.’”
“In a sign of a struggling housing market, Meritage Homes has shuttered its sales center at Inspirada after making no sales. The homebuilder has opted to go back to the drawing board and design homes that are more affordable and better fit the buyer’s lifestyle.”
“The recent decision by Meritage to close its sales center that opened May 18 reflects the stiff competition in the Las Vegas market that has seen builders such as KB Home continue to cut prices to lure buyers.”
“New-home prices are down 11 percent from their high in April 2006, and new-home closings are down 48 percent during the first six months of 2007, according to SalesTraq.”
“‘There has been a big turn for the worse in the last 30 days,’ said John Burns, a California-based housing market analyst. ‘The homebuilders in Las Vegas have catered to entry-level buyers, and rising interest rates and tightening credit has hurt the Las Vegas market pretty substantially more so than other markets.’”
“‘I have heard from several clients that Las Vegas is one of the worst markets and that was not the case before.’ said Burns.”
“‘My clients tell me they are getting plenty of traffic,’ Burns said. ‘A lot of people want to buy a home but with poor credit and low incomes they don’t qualify. I think what has happened in the last 30 days is that mortgage lending has gotten more stringent. They are finding buyers, but if you are making $30,000 a year, you are not going to get a $300,000 loan. You could have before.’”
“Meritage owns 3.5 percent of Inspirada, where it plans to build 370 homes of the 13,500 proposed in the master plan. But when it didn’t record any sales in Inspirada, it decided to retool its models, which will be reintroduced next spring.”
“‘It is very disappointing, but you take your medicine and move on,’ said Robb Beville, Meritage’s division president. ‘You can drop prices and try to force product down buyer’s throats, but that is not our intention for that community. We are listening to what the buyers are telling us to provide product they want and not product we think they want.’”
“Meritage said its changes will appeal to a broader range of buyers but also provide a better price. For example, its town homes, which started at 1,400 square feet and priced at more than $300,000 will now start at 1,300 square feet with a starting price of less than $200,000, Beville said.”
“Ken Perlman, an analyst in San Diego, said what Meritage did at Inspirada worked when the market was hot in 2004 and 2005 and people ‘would buy any product put out there.’ Now builders need to be sensitive to both their product lines and pricing, Perlman said.”
“Builders can’t close their doors when sales are going poorly as they need to sell homes even if they are not profitable, which may be the case with KB and its latest price cuts in the valley, Burns said.”
“‘You have interest on loans to pay back and people you have to pay and you have expenses,’ Burns said. ‘They will bring in revenue. Whether they are making money or not, they have already sunk in a lot of dollars and have to recoup as much as they can to pay down their debt so they can be in great shape to buy land.’”
“‘Prices are getting back to the level where they need to be,’ Perlman said. ‘Nobody likes to see prices depreciate, but sometimes that’s what it takes to stimulate market activity.’”
I remember we tried to tell everyone they were building homes to maximize bubble profits, and now the builders are admitting it. And from the first IBLV link, how about these numbers:
‘The Southern Nevada Development Activity Index decreased to 144.7 in the second quarter — the fourth consecutive quarter with a declining value, according to Applied Analysis. Compared with the second quarter of 2006, the DAI decreased by 14.8 points.’
‘The leading factors for the decline were fewer housing permits and fewer acres developed. The index measures the changes in the real estate development pipeline, according to the firm. The drop in the rating indicates a decreasing amount of development.’
‘The number of driver’s licenses surrendered were down 9 percent from the second quarter of 2006 and 1.5 percent from the first quarter. That’s an indication of slowing population growth.’
‘Construction employment decreased 1 percent from the second quarter of 2006. Planned industrial inventories increased to almost 4.7 million square feet but reported their third consecutive quarterly decline of 29.5 percent when compared to the second quarter of 2006.’
This phase of the housing bubble reminds me of a major boxing event between to guys named Suspended Disbelief and Market Reality. Reality is pounding Disbelief in the face but he refuses to go down. He keeps coming dreamily back for more. Disbelief has this sophomoric idea he can defy Reality. At some point, however, Reality is going to knock Disbelief on his a$$. It’s only a matter of time.
One of my favorites is ” When expectations meet reality, reality always wins”.
“Krein said 90 percent of his properties on the market didn’t sell because the reserve prices were too high. ‘I think they are going to be more aggressive this time,’ Krein said. ‘There might be one for 80 cents on the dollar. You don’t know.’”
Sure I do, Mike… In a relatively short time, all these properties will be 60 to 70 cents of the dollar, possibly even lower. See, that wasn’t so hard.
Krein said. ‘There might be one for 80 cents on the dollar. You don’t know.’”
I am amazed at just how many people have no concept of what happens at the start of a correction. I can say without a doubt these folks paying 80 cents on the dollar will be watching their money go right down the tubes. In past corrections I have watched places go for 20 cents on the dollar and less. This correction is far,far larger than anything we have dealt with in the past. Stupid money, there is still plenty of it out there!
In Australia where most houses are sold at auctions, the authorities cracks down on fraud. It’s just too tempting when the aution house and the sellers are in business with each other. Lots of sellers had friends and relatives bid up the prices. If they ended up as buyers they didn’t pay any commission (and didn’t buy the house either). In Australia you loose your license if you get caught. Can we have the same rules here in the US please?
Is the housing glass 11/12’s empty in vegas, or 1/12th full?
“Past auctions have been much smaller and the reserve price “has been closer to the market price, said Michael Krein, president of Nevada Real Estate Services who manages about a dozen properties up for auction.”
“Krein said 90 percent of his properties on the market didn’t sell because the reserve prices were too high. ‘I think they are going to be more aggressive this time,’ Krein said. ‘There might be one for 80 cents on the dollar. You don’t know.’”
…property values soared on an upward spiral that began about three years ago, peaked and is now leveling off to more realistic prices.
What is it with the “leveling off”? How can a price “level” after “peaking” and somehow be “realistic” without at least “declining”?
Say it Gabriel. You can say it. D.E.C.L.I.N.E.
Prices have come DOWN to a more realistic level.
Not realistic enough probably, but there’s this real inability to see prices as anything other than “rising” or “level”.
Phew! someone hand me a towel, I spit on myself.
Perhaps leveling as in the way an earthquake levels things? Also not leveled off, but still “leveling” until prices are realistic like they were before the bubble. I think I can live with this… Cough Cough…
“Meritage Inspirada”
Not sure if it sounds better as a McMansion, or a sportscar?
“Meritage Inspirada”
How about “Mortgage Insufficient”?
“Meritage Inspirada”
How about “Meritage Desperada”
“I’ll take flip flops and ragtops for $200, Alex”
“Allright, here the answer: Meritage Inspirada and Mazda Miata”
“What are two things that drop in value immediately after being purchased?”
“Correct for $200!”
LOL
I’ll take flip flops and ragtops for $200, Alex
Curses! I knew there was a Miata joke in there somewhere. I couldn’t coax it out.
Good one!
Funny, but the irony is… not a sinlge sell was made at Meritage Inpiranda. Check the story. Opened the sales office in May and are closing it due to NO SALES!!!! Not a single one… OUCH!
Opened the sales office in May and are closing it due to NO SALES!!!!
At Meritage Aprils sales meeting: General Manager to staff: “How can we generate sales?” Sales Manager: “I have been telling you for months, we need a high-end sales office!” General Manager “Lets do it!”
June sales meeting: Hooded bandit “Are you sure you got all the copper plumbing?” Accomplice: “Got it all boss”
July sales meeting: Large Rat: “Do you want to chew thru this wire or can I do it?” Bigger Rat: “I’ll do it”
I’ll bet the Miata has a better resale value!
“‘Prices are getting back to the level where they need to be,’ Perlman said. ‘Nobody likes to see prices depreciate, but sometimes that’s what it takes to stimulate market activity.’”
(raising hand) Ooo, ooo! Me, me! I like to see prices depreciate!
(raising hand) Ooo, ooo! Me, me! I like to see prices depreciate!
hee hee
Me too! Me too!!
Me too! and I own my own home!
Me three! And I’m also a homeowner!
I should have clarified that I’m a homeowner, too… I personally don’t see deflating values as the bugaboo that many “experts” do, especially since my wife and I have always lived prudently, put 20% down on our current house and are six years into a 15-year mortgage, have worked hard in our careers to get excellent jobs, yadda yadda. Our house was only intended as a long-term residence and not as a short-term investment, so the thought of its declining in value for the next few years means absolutely nothing to us. However, I’d like to see everyone have the option (it’s not a right, dammit, no matter what J6P thinks) to buy a truly affordable house, so bring on the housing price deflation and let it be legendary for generations to come!
Besides, I’d like to buy a 55-inch Sony SXRD LCoS TV some day, but I’m not willing to pay more than $500 cash for it, so I need some serious economic deflation to bring the price of consumer electronics tumbling down.
Count me in. I would like to see dropped to at least 50% of the current price. At least 50%, no less than that before I even start to think about looking (and I say looking, not buying) at a 1 story level, 4 bedroom house.
Their is no pulse, the sellers are dead in the water?
“Hudson & Marshall spokeswoman Crystal Wright, wouldn’t disclose the reserve prices but said some of the properties could sell 20 to 30 percent below market price. That was the case at a recent auction in Northern California, she said.”
Ummm… if houses are selling at 20-30% below “market” price, doesn’t that make it the (new) market price ? After all, they didn’t sell a the “market” price ! If they sold at the “market” price, they wouldn’t be at the auction. The auction set the new market price.
I guess what I am saying is that the auction set the new market price and the new market price is 20-30% lower than what people thought the market price was.
I guess realtors “market price” equates to retailers “list price”. This is the price you mark down from so the buyer thinks they’re getting a good deal and therefore does not attempt to negotiate an even lower price. Based on the increase in inventory and days on market it doesn’t appear to be working.
“Hudson & Marshall spokeswoman Crystal Wright, wouldn’t disclose the reserve prices but said some of the properties could sell 20 to 30 percent below
marketwishing price.”There. Fixed.
No, silly. Where do you think the “$50,000 instant equity” that is so often touted in Craigslist ads comes from? Man, you need to get yourself to a “think like a millionaire” type investment seminar pronto !!!
The market price to them is the MSRP for the house (moron’s suggested retail price).
What they need is a The Price is Right only for houses. You get three moronic contestants that each enter $350,000, $425,000, and $550,000 and then Bob Barker has sugar-toosh flip over the actual auction price of $155,000 and the $350,000 contestant then gets to move up the food chain to try her hand and pricing granite counter tops and Viking Ranges.
MSM getting on the train.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/08/08/still-more-housing-bull.aspx
I especially enjoyed this part:
By then (I can only hope), online initiatives from the likes of Google and Craigslist will crack the Realtor stranglehold on real estate listings, providing a few percentage points of immediate relief to already-overburdened home sellers, and maybe, just maybe, putting an end to the self-serving and endlessly press-parroted tripe from the NAR.
The NAR’s home bubble cheerleading has done enough to put Americans into houses they are now having trouble affording. Mainstream media should be doing more to expose the NAR’s hypocrisy, and call it to account for its fuzzy math.
“If you’re a home buyer who’s recently had a loan application vetoed or a rate jacked up because banks are (finally) refusing to make stupid loans, you know more than the Realtors have the decency to say: Home demand has been driven up artificially due to cheap money, and it’s not going to bounce back until prices have a major correction.”
NICE!!!!!
To be Fair Seth has been trumpeting this stupidity for a while on the fool - he’s definately been doing his part to warn people of the impending doom.
Getting on the train late is better than getting on the bus to Baltimore!
Money market mutual funds are at risk from subprime supernova fallout. From Bloomberg:
“The subprime tsunami has come to the beach, as it were, to the safest of the safe,” Epstein said. Money Market One is a San Francisco-based broker-dealer of short-term securities.
Commercial paper is bought by money market funds, mutual funds that invest in short-term debt securities and hold money for everything from individual savings to the coffers of Standard & Poor’s 500 companies. The cash from money market accounts is lent to entities such as those owned by American Home and Luminent to buy mortgages, bonds, credit card and trade receivables as well as car loans. Extendible notes allow the issuer to delay repayment for as long as 397 days, the maximum U.S. money market funds may hold.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.98mgnTI5s4&refer=home
It’s ARMageddoning. It’s ARMageddoning real good!
What is a safer alternative to a money market then? CDs I presume. Perhaps a government treasury money market also?
‘You can drop prices and try to force product down buyer’s throats, but that is not our intention for that community. We are listening to what the buyers are telling us to provide product they want and not product we think they want.’”
“Meritage said its changes will appeal to a broader range of buyers but also provide a better price. For example, its town homes, which started at 1,400 square feet and priced at more than $300,000 will now start at 1,300 square feet with a starting price of less than $200,000, Beville said.”
I just don’t even know where to begin with this. I’m surprised this poor bastard didn’t die of a brain aneuyrism when constructing these sentences.
So, what is it? Do people want lower prices? Or are you forcing smaller, lower-priced “products” down their throats?
That last 100 square feet sure was expensive. $100K.
That last 100 square feet sure was expensive. $100K.
Hah! Great observation!
Wasn’t that something? I guess that extra 100 square feet included a golden throne in the lave, a framed, signed picture of Greenspan and a Frango mint.
“We are listening to what the buyers are telling us to provide product they want and not product we think they want.”
If you were really listening, you would not be facing this surprising career ending predicament.
Roll in the motor homes. We got ourselves a dang motor home park with Zero down and below Zero appreciatian….dang were smart
“More than 5,600 single-family homes were added to the MLS in July, bringing the inventory to a record 24,087, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported. That’s up 18.8 percent from a year ago.”
“Sales activity dropped 34 percent from a year ago to 1,318 transactions in July and the median price fell 4.8 percent to $295,000, the first time it’s gone below $300,000 since April 2005.”
Well golly gee that works out to an 18 month supply of homes on the market. If that trend of 5600 new listings continues it will soon be a 24 month supply. All before the October resets start. Will Las Vegas hit a 36 month supply next year?
Except that number doesn’t include some new homes, FSBO’s and probably many of the foreclosures.
Except that number doesn’t include some new homes, FSBO’s and probably many of the foreclosures.
BMIT has it at 30,445
Not to mention those properties that had been for sale, got no takers, and are now for rent.
Not to mention those properties that was plan to be put up for sale, but change to rentals before they even get to market.
Cinch
Next year? At that rate they’re already adding 4 months inventory every month, so they’ll hit 36 by October at the latest.
“Many of the Rio Rico Properties’ buyers ‘had to walk away from deals’ because they lost or were unable to secure funding. Others relocating from other states, particularly from California have been unable to sell their houses back home and as such cannot assume another mortgage, said Ruth Walsh, sales director for Rio Rico Properties.”
Don’t worry Ruth. Keep building ‘em homes. Buyers are out there. It’s just a temporary delay
Many of the Rio Rico Properties’ buyers ‘had to walk away from deals’
I went out four-wheeling around Rio Rico back in the early ’90’s. There’s some beautiful country out there. But it’s so close to the Mexican border that you could put yourself to sleep at night counting illegal immigrants.
At the time, too there were dozens of prepared acre+ lots, unoccupied casualties of the mid-80’s S&L debacle. Wonder if anyone ever built houses on them?
They are finding buyers, but if you are making $30,000 a year, you are not going to get a $300,000 loan. You could have before.’”
Sounds like reality is making a comeback.
“Now, Scott Communities is offering $40,000 discounts on new homes as a buyer incentive. And it was knocking off $45,000 off a handful of existing homes available when their original deals were canceled.”
Pretty soon they’ll be dropping them 90K to the sound of crickets chirping.
Three weeks ago, my spouse and I went to a new home community in Chandler to check out a house offered for rent by a specuvestor. Since we were early, we decided to tour the models. On our way out, we engaged in the usual chitchat with the salesperson who quickly presented us with a list of all their spec properties currently under construction ranging in size from 1900 to 2900 sq. ft. priced from 408-469,000. She stated we could deduct 100,000. from the price of any house on that list. We thanked her for this valuable information and as we turned to leave, noticed a sign which indicated we should hurry and buy within the next week to avoid a 5000. price increase. It turned out that the owner of the rental house, a realtor, purchased at the reduced price as an investment. Can you spell “knifecatcher”?
Which development in Chandler?
Redwood Estates by Brown Family Communities.
Is it written in the Constitution that managing the stock market is part of the job of the President or the Congress?
Politicians, please just leave us alone!
I’m tellin’ ya, I was on the phone with one of the staffers at the office of one of my senators. Here’s the line: “There is a role for government in all this”.
In other words, they just HAVE to get in on the action. They WILL meddle somehow.
“Past auctions have been much smaller and the reserve price “has been closer to the market price, said Michael Krein, president of Nevada Real Estate Services who manages about a dozen properties up for auction.”
Hat Tip to Michael Krein. Thanks for letting us know it’s still not time to attend your crappy auctions. It’ll be time to attend auctions when the auction IS the market price.
Now I’m confused. Did all the toxic stuff and pier loans disappear overnight? Yesterday there was trouble in river city, today all is sunshine and profits?
“…diminishing concerns about mortgage losses sent shares of banks and homebuilders rallying.
“You’ve got a pretty good opportunity in your money-center banks and brokers,” said David Katz, who helps oversee $1.6 billion as chief investment officer of New York-based Matrix Asset Advisors Inc. “The negative exposure they have is fairly minimal, and you’re getting them at a great price.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aptOKXO8Wz4E&refer=home
“Meritage said its changes will appeal to a broader range of buyers but also provide a better price. For example, its town homes, which started at 1,400 square feet and priced at more than $300,000 will now start at 1,300 square feet with a starting price of less than $200,000, Beville said.”
Let’s see minus 100 square feet equals minus $100,000. Must be that huge granite bathroom with stainless steel floor they changed to a smaller one with ceramic tiles? There’s no way this can be seen as a 33% drop in prices, is there?
It looks like their trying to disguise what is essentially a substantial price drop.
Don’t miss this one:
http://www.thestreet.com/s/bear-stearns-fat-cats-cashed-out-at-the-top/funds/followmoney/10372963.html?puc=_tsccom
Pure coincidence….
Anyway, what I want to know is: where did invest the money?
“‘My clients tell me they are getting plenty of traffic,’ Burns said. ‘A lot of people want to buy a home but with poor credit and low incomes they don’t qualify. I think what has happened in the last 30 days is that mortgage lending has gotten more stringent. They are finding buyers, but if you are making $30,000 a year, you are not going to get a $300,000 loan. You could have before.’”
That is why the housing market is going to tank BIG. No more free money. Investors will have to put in major collatoral to play the game (not going to happen), tighter lending practices (whoever is taking no down or stated income loans won’t be able to sell it in the open market. There is no demand for them. They would have to increase the yield for them which means raising the rates.), Contrary to analyasts beliefs, the majority of the people don’t make $100K+.
We do and I am still trying to stay under 300K if and when I buy something.
Txchick-
I really like your style and your good sense. In 1998 we made $165K, and bought less than we ‘qualified’ for (vs. our comfort zone), because we wanted to bank/invest 50% of our net. I hear ya on buying a reasonably priced home. We since sold and are waiting out this insane market in So Ca renting cheaply.
‘renting cheaply’…is that really what life is about? This blog is getting a bit tiresome.
Watch this tight money scene story ripple through the economy over the next 6 to 12 months. It isn’t just the property market which is going to tank. Ford and GM have been giving cars away and they STILL struggle. Ford’s so-called great profit numbers were total b.s. They fired workers (that’s really great for the economy!) and had sales incentives which Father Christmas couldn’t compete with. Now what? They couldn’t sell vehicles with no money down and 6 years to pay. They were doing that partly with almost “free money”. Now what? Added to which I suspect we will be seeing a lot of repo’s or cheap vehicles coming onto the market as construction jobs dry up and fleet leases run out - not to be renewed.
When it comes to buying cars, my parents have always been of the “100% down, no additional payments” school.
“…Krein said there might be one for 80 cents on the dollar?” Yawn. Try 50 cents and if a sucker takes the bait……SELL IT….’cause there’s a good chance that’s where the prices are headed BUT, if you have a house sitting empty, you could be a nursemaid for a couple of years with cash pouring out the door.
Prices MIGHT bottom in 2010 - 2012. I was guessing 2008 - 2009 a few months back but this festering blister is bigger than I thought. Better hope the Chinese don’t decide to give us a financial spanking or it could take longer.
No need to worry about the Chinese.
With every Treasury note they purchase, they become more indebted to US, not the other way around. Should they call in U.S.-backed Treasuries, their economy suffers, not ours.
Remember that. Hilary Clinton doesn’t have a clue what she is talking about on that score.
To this day I STILL wonder how she made so much money so quickly in the cattle futures market …faster than anyone ever had prior or since her lucrative windfall.
Media coverage is getting better, but it still has a long way to go. So let’s tell journalists how they should cover the housing market. Even if just a handful do, we’ll have a much better sense of local conditions, and this will call the NAR’s bluff about how few areas are affected.
I can hardly wait to send this to my local paper.
Dear Journalist,
Soon you will receive another press release from your local organization of realtors. Odds are, it will tell you there is no reason to worry about your housing market. Unlike the rest of the country, your town is insulated from the mortgage crash because it is so charming, beautiful, and special.
By now, though, you have probably seen the stories about the housing downturn and credit crisis in the rest of the country. So you are wondering, are the realtors right?
If you are not wondering this, you should be.
Here are our suggestions for researching and writing about your local market.
–The Friendly Folks at Ben’s HBB
First, think about other ways to interpret the numbers the realtors send you. In particular:
1. Compare the annual increase in the local median house price to that of the national median house price. This will tell you whether your market participated in the national bubble.
2. Find out if median house prices are rising because only high-end houses are selling. To do this, compare 2006 and 2007 sales in different price ranges. If low and medium priced houses are not selling, you probably have a popping bubble in your town.
Next, think about the numbers the realtors are NOT sending you. For example,
1. How many houses are currently on the market, and how many sold last month? Divide the former by the latter to determine how many months it will take to clear the market, and compare this figure to last year. The rule of thumb for a healthy market is around 3 months.
2. During the usually-hot summer selling season, what have been the average asking and selling prices per square foot? Compare to previous years. This will tell you if prices have started to come down.
3. How many building permits have been issued this year, compared to the last several years? This will tell you how optimistic or overextended builders are.
4. How many foreclosures have occurred this year, compared to last? This will give you a sense of the amount of distress already in your market.
5. How many mortgage loans are sub-prime or Alt-A? How many had less than 5% down and/or carry an adjustable rate? This will give you a sense of how many more foreclosures to expect. Remember that this is just the beginning of the ARM resets. There will be a big spike in October, which will mean an increase in foreclosures by year-end.
6. Were American Home Mortgage, Countrywide, and other lenders that have closed or curtailed lending big operators in your area? If so, chances are the number of folks who can actually get a loan to buy a house is going to fall dramatically.
7. What percentage of residents can afford the median home? To determine this, divide the median home price by 2.5. This is the annual income required to afford the median home. Check census data to determine what percentage of the population has this income.
8. How much would house prices have to fall to be affordable? Take the median income and multiply by 2.5. That is an affordable home. Subtract that amount from the current median house price and divide the resultant by the current median house price. Last week, JP Morgan predicted 15-20% price declines nationally. How does that compare to the number you came up with?
9. Is it better to rent or buy? Find out what the average rent for a 3 or 4 bedroom apartment is in your area. Compare that to the monthly mortgage payment for the median house. Remember this is a rough estimate, though, because home owners have to pay property takes, maintenance, and additional insurance on top of their mortgage.
10. How much will house prices have to fall for it to be better to buy than rent? Subtract the average rent from the mortgage payment for the median house, and divide the resultant by the mortgage payment for the median house. This should be in the same range as the number you came up with in item 8. Until the costs of renting and buying are similar, your housing market should be slow.
Finally, interview builders, bankers, and homeowners to find out what they are seeing. Don’t just talk to realtors.
M gal,
Very good ideas. Sorry, your job app at the NAR was turned down by the clown suits (
“‘Prices are getting back to the level where they need to be,’ Perlman said. ‘Nobody likes to see prices depreciate, but sometimes that’s what it takes to stimulate market activity.’”
Prices need to depreciate in order to restore affordability. I thought affordable housing was a major political goal, especially for the party whose name begins with D. So how come so many of their top leaders are pushing for a bailout, with the likely consequence of helping to keep homes unaffordably priced, and leading many more families to buy homes they cannot afford and put themselves in the path of a future foreclosure?
They seem to want to magically make homes more “affordable” without letting prices actually fall to a natural affordable level.
“A public auction of 90 bank-owned homes in Las Vegas attracted 2,500 people Sunday…and 87 are under contract”
Still some suckers left that will overpay but think they got a deal -
Richard: “Hey everyone! I bought a foreclosure!”
Jane: “Nice going Dick!” “In six months you could have gotten another 30% off.”
The tsunami of foreclosures everyone’s been talking about for more than a year is upon us.
I suggest everyone grab a snorkel, those who haven’t yet anyway.
Can’t wait to hear the official spin when Nevada’s population “growth” goes negative. They won’t need to build a new home in Las Vegas for another 20 years, and anyone employed in residential real estate is going to be leaving town real soon (and never coming back). In fact, I’d wager that a lion’s share of those foreclosures and new listings are from recently unemployed construction workers.
I know two residential home sales reps (that work for the same builder) whose homes are foreclosed, or in the process of being foreclosed. Pretty sad stuff…
I know of two home builder sales reps (who work for the same builder) whose homes were foreclosed, or in the process of being foreclosed…
There’s no such thing as buying real estate for $.80 on the dollar since the value is established by the sale price. If you bought a home for $350,000 and sold it for $450,000 or $250,000 a year later, then that is the market value. It’s only worth what you can get for it at the time – assuming that the buyer and seller both have some grasp on reality.