A High-Stakes Version Of Hot-Potato In Florida
The Ledger reports from Florida. “Jon Brock was sure Polk County’s rental home market would take off, just like property values did nearly two years ago. In a typical real estate climate, higher home prices drive a greater demand for rental units, he said. But so far, it hasn’t happened. ‘It hurts,’ said Brock, broker and owner a real estate and property management company in Lakeland. ‘It should be good but it’s not.’”
“Across Florida, about 40 percent of the homes purchased during the peak of the housing boom two years ago were picked up by investors looking to make quick money by turning around and selling the property, Brock said. But many investors were caught in a high-stakes version of hot-potato in the latter stages of the boom.”
“Their only option: Rent or suffer foreclosure. Now those rentals have flooded the local market, giving renters a wide selection. But just like in the sales market, if they aren’t priced right the homes will remain vacant.”
“‘I’ve been doing this for 17 years,’ said Dottie Rowe, a Realtor and certified property manager in Auburndale. ‘For the first time this year, I’ve had people not show up for appointments. It’s a unique market.’”
“It wasn’t until two years ago that the real estate veteran began marketing new homes for rent. ‘The boom just opened the market up,’ she said.”
“Rowe estimates that about 22 percent to 23 percent of the available homes for rent are new. ‘It is a relatively high number,’ she said. ‘The people have to do something with them because they can’t sell them.’”
“‘We have more three-bed, two-bath rentals over $1,000 a month than I have seen in seven years,’ said Tracy Crews, a Realtor and property manager in Lakeland. ‘If they are priced right and advertised right, we are finding we can rent them. Everybody is flooded.’”
“That glut in the market is forcing a decline in rental rates, said broker John Marchetti. ‘There has definitely been a decline,’ he said. ‘We’ve had almost a $200 (a month) pullback on some of these homes. Say you were asking about $1,400 a month for a new home in 2006. Now you really couldn’t get more than $1,200.’”
“The majority of those homes, he said, were all built during 2005 and 2006.”
The Herald Tribune. “Last month, Nancy Detert sold Osprey Mortgage to a former employee, saying that she decided to sell her 23-year-old business because ‘the market is so strange right now.’”
“‘I’ve seen buyers markets and sellers markets, high interest rates and low interest rates, but now there’s something I’ve never seen before,’ Detert said. ‘Interest rates are as low as they ever have been, but people can’t afford to buy because they overpurchased and overfinanced during the boom, and now they’re upside down in their homes.’”
“‘The next step we’re all waiting for is foreclosures,’ Detert said. ‘It will hit the banking industry hard.’”
“‘The foreclosure phase will be the final nail in the real estate coffin,’ Detert said. ‘After that the market will turn and soon we will be back to where we were before the locusts invaded — probably by the end of 2008.’”
The News Journal. “In stark contrast to the glut of residential housing on the market, blue-chip commercial properties in the Pensacola Bay Area have become a relatively scarce commodity.”
“But commercial sales are starting to feel the effects of the housing slump, made worse by the drag that escalating insurance rates and property taxes are having on property transactions.”
“‘What we’re seeing right now is that commercial sales are slowing,’ said Justin Beck of Beck Property Co. ‘Commercial prices have not dropped anywhere near as much as residential … but it’s not what it once was.’”
The News Press. “Foreclosures in Lee County topped 1,000 in July, an all-time high, as investors continued to let go of houses and land they bought on speculation in the real estate industry boom that ended two years ago.”
“‘It’s really the pre-construction and speculative second-home buyers going south,’ said mortgage broker Jeff Tumbarello, who tracks the local foreclosure market.”
“A total of 1,045 foreclosures occurred last month. That’s about four times more than a year ago.”
“Tumbarello noted that many investors find themselves faced with the prospect of closing on deals they made for homes now worth far less than what they agreed to pay.”
“Since the height of the real estate boom in December 2005, the median price of an existing home sold with the help of a Realtor has fallen 21 percent, from $322,300 to $253,900 in June 2007, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“Meanwhile, buyers have become scarce as the number of home sales fell 39 percent in the same period, from 1,084 to 558, and the number of homes for sale is still about 15,000.”
“‘I assume people had to close on these pre-construction deals and they’re really saying, ‘I’d rather be able to live in the house I’m living in than have good credit,’ Tumbarello said. ‘It’s pretty harsh, but they are doing the right thing in my opinion — they need to have a place for their children to live.’”
“Somebody, please … Buy something! That’s one way of interpreting the advertisements and MLS entries from builders and real estate agents in today’s market.”
“From fire-sale prices to bonuses for agents, homeowners and builders are pulling out all the stops to try to get buyers off the fence.”
“‘Sellers are trying to price their homes attractively, aggressively,” said Jim Higgins, a residential agent in Fort Myers. ‘And they’re picking up the (homeowner’s association) fees or golf membership fees for a period of time. Say, six months to a year.’”
“The Lennar newspaper ads are hard to miss. Big, block print, sparsely worded and to the point, they announce the price of an available new home. ‘People are responding to the ads because price is the big thing in this market,’ said Mark Berry, a Lennar new home consultant. ‘Folks are looking for the best deal when they can shop around.’”
“Price is the big thing for M.W. Johnson Construction as well, according to Kelly Palmer, division VP of sales and marketing. Palmer added that until more inventory comes off the market, things will stay slow for builders and resellers. With the deals builders are offering, she said buyers should be going for the new homes.”
“‘A builder has to make a very risky decision,’ said Gerard Marino, commercial agent in Fort Myers. ‘Does he sell at a discount, possibly angering past clients, or does he gamble that the market will come back and try to sell at the higher price? If he’s wrong, his losses could be horrendous. Most have decided it’s more prudent to sell at a loss and adapt to a changed market.’”
“On builders’ Web sites, the incentives are mainly big price cuts. Really big. More than $100,000 big.”
“Centex is offering these deep discounts during its summer clearance sale at The Plantation in Fort Myers. A 1,557-square-foot, ‘twin-villa’ lakeview home with two bedrooms plus a den, two baths and a two-car garage was $401,407 — on sale now for just $269,990. That’s $131,417 off.”
“An estate home in the same section of the community has 3,021 square feet of living area with four bedrooms plus a den, three bathrooms and a two-car garage. It was being offered for $615,173 but is now just $499,990. A reduction of $115,183.”
“A myriad of freebies can be found in the resale market in listings in the Greater Fort Myers MLS: cars, plasma televisions and surround sound stereo equipment thrown in by homeowners, up to 6 percent toward buyers’ closing costs, bonuses to buyers’ agents, home warranties and, perhaps most valuable to Cape Coral buyers, sewer and water assessments paid in full.”
“‘If you’re a buyer looking for a home to live in, and if you can qualify for a mortgage, with interest rates as low as they are, there has probably not been a better time to buy than right now,” Marino advised.”
“Somebody, please buy something!”
The new mantra — after the professionals’ advice to hold properties off the market didn’t work. And after “I’m not going to give it away” didn’t work. Maybe some screwed neighborhood ought to get together and all the sellers agree on a common ad, similar to a retailer’s: “Entire stock of Pre-Owned Homes - 25% Off!
What do you call $100,000 of original house list price?
(and a couple thousand lawyers, realtors, appraisers, mortgage brokers, and title leeches disbarred)??
A good start
Anyone else shorting BKUNA?
“‘Sellers are trying to price their homes attractively, aggressively,” said Jim Higgins, a residential agent in Fort Myers. ‘And they’re picking up the (homeowner’s association) fees or golf membership fees for a period of time. Say, six months to a year.’”
Counter-party risk. You’re buying now, and they are promising to give you something a year from now. Is the money going into escrow?
Fort Myers was one of the super hot markets until a couple of years ago. Now:
Foreclosures in Lee County topped 1,000 in July, an all-time high
A total of 1,045 foreclosures occurred last month. That’s about four times more than a year ago.
Since the height of the real estate boom in December 2005, the median price of an existing home sold with the help of a Realtor has fallen 21 percent, from $322,300 to $253,900 in June 2007
Meanwhile, buyers have become scarce as the number of home sales fell 39 percent in the same period, from 1,084 to 558, and the number of homes for sale is still about 15,000
************
So what happens to homeowners who bought several years ago at lower prices than the peak? Increasingly, they are finding themselves up side down. How many of them will succumb when a death occurs, a marriage breaks up, a job is lost, or extraordinary medical bills arrive? We have a lot of pain ahead of us.
“Meanwhile, buyers have become scarce as the number of home sales fell 39 percent in the same period, from 1,084 to 558, and the number of homes for sale is still about 15,000″
Holy 2 years of inventory, Batman!
Don’t worry, rich Venezuelans will buy all those homes.
Can we decide on the proper kid-game metaphor for the real estate market?
Musical Chairs
Kick the Can
Hot-Potato
Dodgeball
Marco Polo
I like hot-potato. If you don’t get it out of your hand fast enough, your get burned. If you hold it for way too long, you go to the hospital.
Kick the can is what the RE agents are playing today. Just keep showing grossly overpriced homes because that’s their job, but have no real prospect of actually accomplishing anything.
Dont forget Duck Duck Goose!
Ring Around the Rosey. (Maybe that’s ‘Rosie’, but I don’t want to run around THAT).
Apt since many believe the game and song refer to the plague…. it doesn’t but could in the case of the bubble
Suicide roulette.
Images of the Deer Hunter.
I live in New Jersey, the kids around here grow up hard and fast.
How about the video game Grand Theft Auto, mastery of which is becoming a requirement in some Manhattan and D.C. private schools. No child can graduate from the 4th grade until he or she ‘acquires’ sufficient cash to buy the helicopter.
It started out as kick the can (Fed bailout 2001-2003). It’s now hot potato(e) as FBs try to sell and the I-bank bagholders beg the Fed for enough lending to stabilize things long enough to unload their risk onto the gullible pubilc. It will quickly morph into musical chairs as the system gaming and financial bandaids are seen for what they really are.
Javelin catching?
It’s more like catching the grenade, because lots of hedge funds are blowing up lately.
I had a chance yesterday to drive around and see the rental houses “flooding” the south Tampa market. Most are in obvious disrepair, or are adjacent to major roadways. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that those lemons won’t be rented anytime soon.
The Tampa Tribune had a story this weekend on downtown living, featuring the phallus-shaped Skypoint tower and its various purported amenities. The story, of course, didn’t contain a reference to the “must sell” snipe sign at the corner of Bayshore and Platt seeking to unload a Skypoint unit.
From Tucson: High-priced downtown living isn’t wowing ‘em. Housing slowdown not helping:
http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/196039
I had a chance yesterday to drive around and see the rental houses “flooding” the south Tampa market. Most are in obvious disrepair, or are adjacent to major roadways. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that those lemons won’t be rented anytime soon.
Snake Charmer:
I also have looked in the South Tampa market and found the same. There are numerous 1950’s homes for sale and all are in bad shape and overpriced, not to mention they are also in one of the worst flood and wind damage areas. A friend of mine purchased one against my advice in 2004. It is now falling apart due to termite damage, etc. He paid $130,000 for a 1,000 sf house that is in really poor condition. The house originally sold two years earlier for $70,000 and is probally worth only $65,000 in todays market. This is an excellent example of a person being upside down and now trapped. He thinks the South Tampa location will save him from losing money.
UPDATE for those who have been following my rental saga in Tampa, FL. I received a new letter from my landlord, offering NO RENT INCREASE if I would sign a new lease, plus save some monies on the first couple months. Just last month they wanted a $28/mo increase. If I wait one more month, it might be a $28/mo decrease. The complex is hurting, and meanwhile, I’m looking at alternative options. Stay tuned.
offer $280 less per month and start negotiating
must be fun
Moman,
Not trying to be to nosey, but what are you paying in rents up that way ?
As a fyi we have been remodeling units and not raising rents. The new tennant just gets a nicer place at the same money…
Like i said below our rents range from 500 for a nice clean 2/1,up to a max of 750 for a reallllly nice 3/2 garage duplex.
Chris
Not a problem, CD.
I am paying $850/mo for 1/1 apt right now. Decently nice place, great neighborhood. Started out at $650 in 2003. I really feel the place is only worth 700-750 a month in current condition. I wish you owned a place up here, I’d rent from you.
I feel sorry for those who buy a Lennar home now. There are so many defects in their homes. I don’t know if so many were built yhat quality went out the window. There should be a shake up at that company due to quality.
Is there one of the national builders that builds quality homes, overall?
Certainly not the one I’m currently working for.
It highly depends on the development superintendent whether you get quality or not. I had a chance to compare two BZH developments 25 minutes apart in Ft. Myers area - quality is night and day.
Big national builders are out to make money, period. The cheaper they build them the better their bottom line. Find a small builder with good references and you’re much better off. The huge overhead of national builders has to be paid somehow and it’s with cheaper materials and cutting corners.
The same happens every boom. Corners are cut, inspections are not made and quality goes to hell. A friend bought a house in 90 (Took 10 years to recover their loss) but the one smart thing she did was to go down to the lot where they were building her house and call them on everything they did not do right. She had the only house in the track without problems.
I rented a newish house on the North Fork of Long Island for a week in June. It was probably less than two years old. (The subdivision is still just a dusty lot on Google Earth.) It was a big, “nice” colonial, but several doors wouldn’t close. A big crack ran from a door jamb up to the ceiling. In one shower, the faucet had shifted, revealing an inch-wide gap in the tile wall. The other shower leaked as well - or so we surmised when the ceiling below it started crumbling four days into our stay.
So much for someone’s dream house by the beach. What shape will it be in 10 years from now?
I remember when a neighbor of ours had to take her builder to court. The bags used for cement on the fireplace were cemented into the the wall, except parts of them weren’t covered. The shower in the bath didn’t connect to any plumbing and water ran down the basement wall. They had buried electric lines, except they weren’t encased in anything and shorted out the first heavy rain. Many other things also, too numerous to mention. Some housing inspector from DC came to look at our house that was built by a good builder and took pictures to use in court. They ended up with a settlement of $8,000 which didn’t cover the extra $30,000 they had to pay to bring it up to code and that $30k didn’t cover lawyer fees and court costs.
I feel sorry for those who buy a Lennar home now. There are so many defects in their homes. I don’t know if so many were built yhat quality went out the window. There should be a shake up at that company due to quality.
There will be a shake up at Lennar, but it won’t be a result of a quality control issue, but one due to lost business. Cheap labor and high demand often equals crap products during a boom.
my old man’s place in ft myers was 1mill now 750k w no lookers
wow…………
he will sell for $300K and be angry the rest of his life.
You’re describing half of the US.
The baby boomers and older tried to fleece GenX (and younger) for their retirement. Its no longer working. We can vote with our feet.
Got popcorn?
Niel
i dont think that they intentionally tried to fleece, but i do think that they got emotionally caught up in the greed cycle.
Agree. My in-laws freaked when we sold and rented, I think in part because people our age are supposed to buy the houses they invested in for retirement. I don’t think they view themselves as trying to fleece others but at this point have got caught up in the houses=riches mentality. It’s sad, but as Neil pointed out, we don’t have to quite litteraly buy into it.
Neil:
Fleece? no i think at the beginning they were offered far more money then they thought it was worth so they let them have it.
Then the greed took over and they went and bought a bigger more expensive house with the “profits” Now the “Profits aka down payment” have disappeared and they are back to square one.
Notice almost No boomers sold and bought a smaller house or became renters.
This boomer didn’t. We bought a house with a 15 year mortgage. Paid it off and got no home equities. This is where we’re staying for now. Taxes and Insurance are cheap in Ohio.
WHAT!? Neil, I always thought you were a crusty old codger gettin up for the Dennys Early Bird Special while typin out yer comments on a portable manual Smith Corona typewriter.
Or at least a mid-life crisis middle-aged trophy wife totin toupee’ wearin vette drivin stud, tossin popcorn kernels out the back.
Shocked, I am SHOCKED !! Yer comments now just fall under the ” whippersnapper ” category & I will reduce my toasts accordingly.
The baby boomers and older tried to fleece GenX (and younger) for their retirement. Its no longer working. We can vote with our feet.
Neil: This is not true and your and I both know it. There were just as many younger folks as there were older folks selling and purchasing during the boom. It was greed from both generations that caused these problems. In Florida, a majority of those living on fixed incomes were forced to sell their retirement homes due to rising insurance and taxes and many lost their homes. You are at an age where you can recover from a financial hit, but a person at or near retirement is often deeply hurt by such a financial hit.
You might take note that the vast majority of the people facing criminal charges from the housing and mortgage boom are not elderly or in the baby boomer groups, but fall into the younger generations.
How do you go long Popcorn Futures? This will be a long ride….
Actually, a lot of us are scrambling to make sure we’ll be indepent in addition to trying to compensate our grown children for some pretty grim decades looming ahead. You’d be surprised how many of us realize we’re going to have to look out for our families indefinitely. I work online and I can see there are myriad ways to continue to protect my family’s prosperity if I don’t spead a lot of time on cruise ships and beaches.
we drove around a few areas we are interested in long term, more inventory, and obiviously neglected yards/houses even in some of the more expensive areas. and most shocking was that one the very few houses that was sold in the past 6 mos is back on the market, with new granite counters and new plumbing fixtures… yes folks, there are still some people who think they can still flip…
A little update on my neighborhood in Port Charlotte.
My area was subdivided in the 50’s. Most homes built in mid 80’s. A couple in the 90’s. There are still 21 empty lots on the street. A total of nine houses. As of today only 4 have people living in them. 5 are foreclosures. Oldest FC is 21 months with no attempts at selling. The latest turned the keys in Fri. He had been trying to sell for a year for a 30k loss so he can take care of his sick father/family farm up north. Sale price ? 159k. He had bought 3 years ago for 190k.
In a years time he had a handful of lookers and no offers. Ugh…this is gonna get much worse over the next year.
How overpriced is Florida still ?
A flier across the street from one of our rentals in Cape Coral breaks the numbers down like this…
Duplex 309k. One side rents for 1000.00,other side 950.00. Current taxes at this price would run approx 150.00/mo per unit. Insurance about 75/unit month. I usually set aside roughly 50 per unit per month for mait. So our fixed costs run 550/total a month roughly.
That leaves 1400/mo, IF YOU GET THE LISTED RENTS.
Rents at my identical,just slightly older unit across the street are currently…600.00 month. I dont see us increasing anytime soon…So how exactly do the numbers work? They dont. Southwest Florida is going to be a smoking hole in the ground before this is over….
And i am optimistic !!!
Chris
“Southwest Florida is going to be a smoking hole in the ground before this is over….
And i am optimistic !!!”
I suppose pessismism would imply a smoking hole somewhere off the west coast of Australia - i.e., the longitudinal and latitudinal opposites of Lee County.
BTW, sign seen this morning on a house in Jacksonville Beach, about a block from the beach: “You buy this house I buy yours for cash.” My interpretation: my house is definitely more overpriced than yours (or maybe, let’s work a scam together. . .)
FL has 2004 pricing
any other cities or states that bad ?
FL does have some 04 pricing, but not everywhere yet. The disparity in prices from one home to another is just staggering.
I was in 2 identical homes a few weeks ago (nearly across the street from one another, same desireablity of location) with a 30% (yes, PERCENT) price differential between them. Also, on the MLS, I have found homes in my community that have sold for 1.5M, where the home across the street has sold for 600K. It’s just staggering how huge the price swings are in this market; nobody appears to know how to correctly price anything (sound familiar?).
FL has the triple whammy, totally unaffordiable home prices, tax system that is inherently unfair and horrificly damaging to new buyers, and, of course, skyrocketing insurance premiums. I think that combination of factors may be unique, which is why FL is falling faster then other areas. However, it will just be a matter of time until the others fall in unison; FL just appears to be the canary in the coal mine right now.
I agree 100% in our little canal neighborhood there can be a listed price spread of almost 50%, more recently listed properties in particular are dropping and there are some die hards with 2005 pricing.. and in at least 2 cases the house has been on the market more than 18 mos… I can’t imagine keeping my house “show” ready for that long.
Lets hope the father does not die quickly. If he dies soon, then he inherits the farm and the bank will put a lien on it to cover the losses on his “jingle mail”……..
===============================================
The latest turned the keys in Fri. He had been trying to sell for a year for a 30k loss so he can take care of his sick father/family farm up north. Sale price ? 159k. He had bought 3 years ago for 190k.
How overpriced is Florida still ?
A friend of mine who is a well respected attorney mentioned to me this weekend that homes could fall anywhere from 30-60% in Florida. All of the rapid gains from 2003-2006 could be wipped out when this mess if over, bringing the market more back in line with local wage and income levels.
“The Lennar newspaper ads are hard to miss. Big, block print, sparsely worded and to the point, they announce the price of an available new home. ‘People are responding to the ads because price is the big thing in this market,’ said Mark Berry, a Lennar new home consultant. ‘Folks are looking for the best deal when they can shop around.’”
Looks like the builders/developers are savvy enough to understand the market dynamics. I am sure they will price the new houses to move them, which means that prices will keep falling until the inventory is reduced.
However, the most of the pre-owned home sellers still have their head buried in the sand. “I’m not going to give it away,” is still what many of them are thinking. Many of them think that they can wait this bust out. As time goes on, as a lower price base gets firmly established, sanity should prevail among the individual sellers. Folks, this looks like a long drawn out process. We should be prepared to sit back and enjoy the show for the next 18 to 36 months, I think. But make sure your popcorn is very, very lightly salted and buttered to keep your health!
I was trying to close italics. Great NeilT, you broke it!
Something I wonder about….. Many banks have reduced their lending risk by either having tight (historical) standards or else selling off the crap. Currently though foreclosures are piling up, but the banks aren’t moving them in a meaningful way. One thing builders do have significant risk in is their loans to builders. As long as the banks hold on to the REOs the builders can undercut everyone else.
Could it be the banks are holding off liquidation of REOs until the builders can make good on their debts, at which point there will be a massive flood all at once?
Let me try this again…
The “selling off the crap” I was refering to was the loans.
Also “One thing builders” should be “One thing banks”.
Check out today’s rate sheet from CFC. Rates are skyrocketing.
https://www.cwbc.com/PdfFiles/WLD…/WLDBC% 20CA.pdf
wawawa, can you tiny url it?
I am sorry I do not know how to do tiny url.
But if you go to “calculated risk” and look comments at threads for “sales tax revenue ….” you will see the link to CFC rate sheet.
You type in ‘tinyurl’ as a search word and are whisked to their site, which is free, and you paste your giant url link into a little box and immediately you get back a tiny url which you can then paste over to us, or to anyone else, like sending a cute little violet.
Ok try this, hopfully it works.
http://tinyurl.com/37lpyd
“…cars, plasma televisions and surround sound stereo equipment thrown in by homeowners, up to 6 percent toward buyers’ closing costs, bonuses to buyers’ agents, home warranties…”
Blah, blah, blah. That’s sooooo 2006!
Agree. Cut the price. Cut it deep.
$322K to $253K when we’re talking about median is HUGE! Mike and I have both said many times that the person shopping for a $300K home is still shopping for a $300K home, just getting more for their money. Thus it can be said that median will have little change and is a poor indicator.
What this says is the $300K shopper is now looking at $250K homes instead. It also shows that people are starting to wake up and realize just how overpriced the market is.
Look out below!
A person who shopped for a 300K home last week can only afford a 250K this week now that rates have gone up dramatically.
The Daytona BeachNews-Journal carried yesterday a leading article in its RE section essentially pointing to a glut in the condo market. A number of speculators have decided to forfeit their deposits rather than close the deals, realizing they stand to lose more by owning the condos. This is up and down the coast from Palm Coast to New Smyrna Beach. And to think that there are still a number of condos to be completed, which would make matters worse. A number of oceanfront and riverfront land bought by developers at the height of the so-called boom stand empty, some being auctioned, and all fenced in because of the ugly sights. When one considers the price of a new condo, starting at over $500 thousand for a 2-BR, 2-B unit, plus some of the highest property taxes and insurance in the country, you can see why this area is going to be a repeat of the housing bust in Florida in the 20s. People never seem to learn from the lessons of history. And it’s all because of GREED.
bet it’s a zero down deal too
“Last month, Nancy Detert sold Osprey Mortgage to a former employee, saying that she decided to sell her 23-year-old business because ‘the market is so strange right now.’”
Translation: I know someone more stupid than me because she/he worked for me for so many years….
Could someone please tell me why the stock market see the fed having to inject Billions and hedge funds needing a bailout a good thing? Why is the market up on all this bad news?
I wonder if the fed is going to keep injecting billions of dollars daily for the next 5 to 6 years. Sounds like the big boys want out. They are telling small investors to sit it out. Well they aren’t. They are liquidating and unwinding. Hopefully most investors have diversified already.
My assumption is, that since most of the money now being injected is overnight loans to the banks (as opposed to early cash out of bonds), then they are most likely buying up to cover long positions they held. Once they cover their longs today, they can repay the overnight loan, and the market can fall. The Fed can continually say that they are willing to do whatever it takes to keep the market propped up, but they may just stop making overnight loans once the banks CANNOT REPAY THE NEXT DAY. There was an article today in Yahoo finance that stated banks wanted something more to the tune of $38 Billion today, but 1/18th of that was injected. $2B is all that the Fed can be sure that the banks can repay at this moment.
It’s just a band-aid.
The bleeding will continue for years to come, no matter how much phoney money the Feds pump into the markets.
Doesn’t adding money to the market cause increased inflation? If inflation increases, the Fed would have no choice but to raise rates.
WHAT A STORM.
I’m happy to see the privately owned central banks, steeping up to the plate, and becoming the new bag holders. After all, they’re the ones who created this mess. How much is the toxic paper they bought, for 1/2 trillion dollars, worth? I love watching Wealth Destruction on a massive scale.
“Why is the market up on all this bad news? ”
When a problem gets fixed, it’s not bad news.
Who says the problem is fixed? The market is “fixed” apparently, but our definitions may differ.
i see it like this..
You’re on a hiking trip .. fall and break a leg.
Your “friends” leave you there, hike 10 miles back to camp and make book on your chances for survival… Right now, the best odds are 10-1 against you making it.
Someone comes along and sees you and helps you set the leg.. then puts on a splint and finds a branch for a crutch. You can now hobble along pretty well.
That good Samaritan had a cell phone. You call the camp and update your friends on what’s happening.
The odds on your survival changed dramatically.. no? Where is the smart money now?
Hmm, not a bad analogy. I see your point. Though, there are many hikers with broken legs. Are there going to be enough “good samaritans”? I think the chances of survival can change back to nil pretty quickly.
This has got to be the most overused sales pitch…
======
“‘If you’re a buyer looking for a home to live in, and if you can qualify for a mortgage, with interest rates as low as they are, there has probably not been a better time to buy than right now,” Marino advised.”
Somebody PLEASE wake me up when the RE people are saying “Now is probably NOT the time to buy”. As soon as that happens, I will know that he** has frozen over.
Well, somebody please wake ME up when the REtards are not saying anything at all, but only weeping and mumbling and chewing crazily on their fingers.
What Marino should have said was that it is a much better time to buy this year than last year considering the house did not change, the rates did not change, but the price did (270 vs. 401). It still might be not the best time to buy–270 is awfully expensive for a 1557 sqft townhouse, don’t care if it is lakeside or not.
I know.. my head is ready to explode every time I hear that.
“‘If you’re a buyer looking for a home to live in, and if you can qualify for a mortgage, with interest rates as low as they are, there has probably not been a better time to buy than right now,” Marino advised.”
Marino advised, and you too can join the group of people holding the hot spud that will end with a thud on your finances!
LAtimes had an article yesterday morning advising a retiree to divest real estate holdings to free up cash flow. Mostly due to the poor 3.5% rental return on the investment properties. As rents go down, expect more people to sell to gain “cash flow.”
We’ve already entered the “cash is king” phase.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Isn’t 8% the minimum cap rate that one should seek on rental real estate?
Absolutely, but some people apparently have a weird taste in hobbies.
ROTFL.
Yep… if its not returning a decent ROI, its a hobby.
I should note, the article is part of their regular Sunday financial makeover series in the business section.
The next year should have rather interesting RE sales rates. Today’s prices require a quite a few transactions. Get rid of the flippers and that is 20% to 40% of sales that just won’t be happening (area dependent, but I doubt any area dropped below 20%).
Some areas can flatline for 3 to 5 years to get rid of their price surplus. The bubble markets have too much inventory to clear. Bwaaa ha ha!
Got popcorn?
Neil
Not if you are expecting 20% appreciation to flip to a greater fool, than a neg. cap rate is acceptable as well. Personally, i think rentals rarely appreciate in a normal market, since your ‘appreciation’ is eaten away by the increased maintenance cost of a property getting older (needing more repairs). In my opinion 13% - 16% is a reasonable cap rate for a rental - maybe others more knowledgeble can chime in.
got cash?
I must be clairvoyant, I predicted everything that is happening in Real Estate market back in 2003. I’m getting one of those 900 numbers to dole out investment advice on the next coming fiasco: Hyper Inflation…..
I as well now wear the genius graduation cap and no longer wear the tin foil cap. It was all self evident to people who don’t join heard or get caught up in propaganda, which sadly is the emotional knee jerk calling card of the majority of Americans.
inflation?
you mean it’ll require more dollars to buy, say.. a home or a car in the future than it does today?
I really can’t wait to see the squeeze here in So Cal and see the RE sacred cow be slaughtered by the sharp blade of reality and basic economics. Then the mantra will be on comps “IT’S NOT FAIR!!” We have heard it before and will hear it a bunch more, and I also heard many banks will not even give a dime now on new construction until at least 50% have been sold previously. That makes sense, we have seen phase 2 sell off at huge discounts over phase one, banks can’t like that.
“FAIR” has nothing to do with it.
(now where did i hear that…)
Probably your grandpa, remembering the Great Depression.
MOMMMMMM it’s NOT FAIR !!
( why oh WHY do I have to be dragged off to the horrible tiny room again with no room service or cell phone mommmm, someone yell “CUT” . .. I want a ” do over ” )
Rich Dad Poor Dad was on TV and was almost laughing at the flippers. He said only invest in RE if it is cashflow positive. I guess 95% of RE investors the past three years are screwed.
As much as I hate to agree with Kiyosaki, he’s right on the money on this particular point.
New personal anecdote.
Former boyfriend of an aunt is now begging his sisters for “a few hundred” to get by. Apparently he’s using it to buy food. But, nobody can really say. Gee, traded food for an overpriced townhouse, a new car, a harley, and a bunch of other useless sh!t. Good trade, a-hole.
Haven’t posted in quite some time, but thought the bubble watchers here would be interested in some news on my f’d landlord. In 2003 they purchased the home I am currently renting for around $350k. Husband was in mortgages and they decided to build a $990k home. They had hoped to sell for $5-600k. No luck so they turned to renting. The other day we received some of their mail and accidentally opened it. It was a letter informing them that their children were approved for free lunches at the school. The form said to quailify they needed to make less than $44k a year(and that’s for reduced lunch). They are making around $30k off rent alone. She is working and he’s probably claimed some form of disability. They are living in almost a million dollar home, driving a bmw suv and their children are receiving free lunch. It makes me sick. We are no where near the bottom in Bradenton!
Lizziebeth
Geez that story is absolutely disgraceful but what sucks is the person(s)scamming the system are no different morally than some ghetto dweller.
Here is someone who should know better, has some advantages & a few brain cells w/an education not usually available to the harder working low class families, and they STILL scam for free lunches !!
Reminds me of my ex-best friend about .. 15 years ago here in Sacramento, picking up his first son at a private catholic school, bragging about how to skew the paperwork to qualify for the reduced tuiton, while he owned a Subway shop (went BK later) , as his wife raked in a healthy profit doing daycare.
They could well afford the full tuition but still felt no shame at all about scamming the system. I think that was a lightbulb moment for me as our friendship fell apart soon after & we havent spoken since.
Oh by the way, his wife attended BYU & looked down her snotty nose at me for my vagabond lifestyle. Morals? Only when they are convenient.
The form said to quailify they needed to make less than $44k a year(and that’s for reduced lunch). They are making around $30k off rent alone. She is working and he’s probably claimed some form of disability.
Contact your local authorities or school board and file a complaint, it’s a felony for grand theft in Florida.
please contact the authorities on these slimeballs
I will. Hopefully I can do it anonymously!
“According to a survey released by Sen. Jeff Klein in May, Long Island has the highest rate of subprime loan foreclosures in the state, with 22 percent of subprime mortgages issued in 2005 expected to end in foreclosure. ‘This is a statewide and nationwide crisis,’ Klein said.”
Not that I condone bail outs but if any politician decides on a bail out,the mortgage companies and financial companies should foot the bill in the fines that should be levied against them for preditory practices. This way the tax payer is not on the hook.
The taxpayer is ALWAYS on the hook. Deal with it.
Nope, sorry, I refuse. I have been shown that niggling little part of the uniform tax code that states I have to pay taxes, but, in what part does it say that i have to be bound and gagged to whatever decision is made? Why doesn’t the Treasury have a guideline on say, a minimum amount of expenditure in which a vote must be sought? Acting on behalf of the “best interests” of the whole is often twisted, and there is way too much ambiguity in that terminology.
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Asian markets tanking tonight and dow futures in the toilet. The liquidity crisis will be here shortly and if this market action continues (and I know it will) much longer there will be some major government intervention. The GSEs and industry who did this to us have a bigger lobbying arm I can comprehend.
Who here supports the idea of a single day of nationwide protest against the impending taxpayer bailout? I think we should pick a date when there are hedge fund implosions in the headlines (from now until Q1 of 2008 almost weekly), when Dodd’s lips are being jerked by strings (every other week), and when the presidential candidates are trying to take the pulse of the country. How about the Saturday following Halloween?