This Is All A Snowball
12 News reports from Arizona. “Real estate people can usually find the sunny side in any piece of bad news. These days, they’ve stopped looking. The consensus today is this is the worst Valley housing market in 10, 15, even 20 years, and the mess is spreading. ‘We all knew it was coming,’ said Patricia Garcia Duarte, executive director of Neighborhood Housing Services of a Phoenix non-profit that counsels home buyers.”
“‘As we look at some of these people we say, how could you have ever qualified for a $300,000 loan when your total income is $40,000 a year?’ said Mike Sullivan, director of education at Take Charge America, which counsels people struggling with debt.”
“Today we’re seeing the result: Just 5,000 homes sold in the Valley last month, but almost 3,000 foreclosures. And 55,000 homes on the market, 20,000 more than in a ‘normal’ market.”
“In a Valley economy where an estimated 1 in every 3 jobs is in some way connected to real estate, more jobs are at risk. Countrywide Lending, the nation’s leading home lender and a major Valley employer, is warning that the housing bust poses a serious threat to its business.”
“‘This is all a snowball,’ Sullivan said, ‘and the bigger the snowball gets, the harder it is to stop.’”
From KTAR.com in Arizona. “Realtor Russell Shaw says most of the foreclosures are happening on what he calls the edges of the Phoenix area. ‘Buckeye, Goodyear, Chandler, that kind of thing, Apache Junction, Queen Creek. That is where the bulk of the foreclosures will occur.’”
“That’s where land is plentiful and many investors bought houses they now can’t afford. As for the future, Shaw says things will stay this way for awhile, but ‘it’s just almost like Nostradamus. I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer. So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening.’”
“‘It’s not that the lenders who take them back are going to try to dump them at low prices, they’re just going to be selling them at market. But it does hurt the area,’ says Shaw.”
The Arizona Daily Star. “Several key private-sector projects meant to be the backbone of Downtown (Tucson) redevelopment have been stung badly by the housing market downturn and won’t be completed until at least 2009, stifling progress for Rio Nuevo.”
“The theory that private residential development would jump-start other redevelopment Downtown hasn’t panned out, said Jaret Barr, assistant to the city manager. ‘It’s clear it’s not happening,’ he said.”
“In their bottom lines, many of the financial plans for residential development Downtown assumed the high prices seen during the real estate boom would continue, said local developer Randi Dorman. ‘Some plans need to be recalibrated’ to reflect changes in the marketplace, Dorman said.”
In Business Las Vegas reports from Nevada. “The median price of Las Vegas homes fell $10,000 in July to the lowest point since March 2005, starting what some observers suggest may be a major correction in the existing home market.”
“The price drop occurred as the inventory of homes listed for sale continued to set records in July with a combined 30,000 single-family homes, condos and town homes on the market. Not only were new listings up 2.5 percent for single-family homes, but sales of homes listed on the service fell nearly 11 percent from June to 1,318.” “That’s 34 percent below sales totals a year ago.”
“‘It is not as good as we had hoped,’ said Devin Reiss, president of the Realtors group. ‘The inventory has been going up and prices had been holding steady, but it was a matter of time, with as much inventory as we have, to see a slipping in the median price. Unfortunately, that is the way it is heading at this point.’”
“But with Las Vegas’ resale housing inventory sufficient for 14 to 16 months, well above the national average of six to seven months, something was bound to give, analysts said.”
“‘I think we expected this, and we expect prices will continue to soften,’ said Ken Perlman, VPt with San Diego-based Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors. ‘The market is adjusting to what people are willing to pay. And buyers are influenced by the fear about the market. They don’t want to buy when they think prices are going down.’”
“A homeowner may have a neighbor whose house sold for $600,000 in 2005, and there now is no way they could sell their own home for $500,000, Perlman said. They eventually change their minds when they see what’s happening in the market, he said.”
“‘This has got a ways to go,’ economist Chris Thornberg said. ‘Las Vegas has gotten way overbuilt and has some problems. When you look at the price of homes and incomes, it is just not sustainable.’”
“Between 2002 and 2006, the median price of resale homes rose nearly 97 percent from $145,000 to $285,000 last year, according to SalesTraq, a local housing tracking firm. The biggest jump was 40 percent in 2004.”
“Local housing analyst Steve Bottfeld predicts a boom in 2009, said July is typically a slow month for sales. Thornberg dismisses suggestions by Bottfeld and others that the housing market will recover when resorts open on the Strip in the next two years and other people move into the market. Casino jobs and other jobs created in Las Vegas don’t generate enough income to deal with affordability, he said.”
“‘It doesn’t matter,’ Thornberg said. ‘It is a function of price and income. If you can’t afford it, you can’t afford it. It is that simple.’”
The Las Vegas Business Press from Nevada. “Las Vegas Valley land values are seeing a slight dip due to rising development costs, increased interest rates and a housing market slowdown, according to a new report. Median vacant land prices were $718,500 per acre in the second quarter, $90,600 less than the previous year, according to Applied Analysis.”
“The average sales price was $16.49 per square foot in the second quarter, an 11.2 percent drop from 2006.”
“‘Demand for raw land continues to be impacted by several factors, including the performance of the residential market,’ said Jeremy Aguero, principal of Applied Analysis. ‘This shift in market demand during the past several quarters is reflected in sales volumes, which have pulled back significantly.’”
“‘The impacts associated with softening demand for land were partially offset by landowners’ unwillingness to sell at deep discounts, forcing property values to remain relatively stable,’ said Brian Gordon, principal of Applied Analysis. ‘Should residential conditions worsen materially or population growth slowdown substantially, the likelihood of price reductions may be a reality.’”
The Las Vegas Sun from Nevada. “Our valley’s top real estate experts have long been predicting a short slump with minor price corrections of less than 10 percent. The folks I talked to counted on our dynamic economy, a continuing influx of new residents and the coming wave of Strip resort development to keep the slump short and relatively harmless.”
“I believed them, and wrote in January that I expected the sluggish real estate market to improve by the end of this year. I was wrong, and was too optimistic.”
“The people I feel sorry for are the regular folks. Their home is often their biggest investment, and they’ve been failed by a market that didn’t rein in the aggressive businesses that gambled on continuously increasing prices.”
“Prices for new and resale homes continue to slowly but steadily drop, bad news, maybe, for people who hoped to make a quick profit on home sales, but a glimmer of good news for champions of Las Vegas as a town of blue-collar homeowners.”
“By spring and summer 2006 Las Vegas had priced itself out of reach of the very people who run this town, teachers, rank-and-file cops, hotel maids, food servers. The people who were needed to work here couldn’t afford to buy a home here.”
“Or they got in over their heads with seemingly attractive mortgages that came to haunt them, and they had to bail. That’s one of the reasons Las Vegas has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation.”
“Just look at what’s happened during the past year: for-sale signs everywhere, nobody is buying and prices are dropping.”
“By some accounts, prices would have to come down 33 percent from their peak to be affordable.”
“In the first quarter of 1999, 78 percent of homes for sale were within reach of a family earning the median income, according to real estate economist John Restrepo. By the end of 2006 only 14 percent of homes were affordable to those families.”
“A downward correction in home prices should be good news not just to Nevadans who have delayed or abandoned hope of buying a home, but to employers struggling to recruit workers.”
“‘I think you would have to have a huge drop for a lot of people to be able to afford a place to live,’ said Somer Hollingsworth, head of the Nevada Development Authority. ‘When you are making $30,000 to $35,000 to $40,000 a year, there is not much they can afford.’”
‘I think we expected this, and we expect prices will continue to soften,’ said Ken Perlman, VPt with San Diego-based Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors.’
Uh, huh…
‘Local agencies charged with luring new businesses to Southern Nevada reported a drop in recruitment numbers in fiscal 2006. The Nevada Development Authority and the city of Henderson’s division of economic development helped fewer companies relocate to or expand in Southern Nevada in the year that ended June 30.’
‘Land prices in Southern Nevada remain well above real estate expenses in competing regional markets, and that’s driving large operations to cities outside the Las Vegas Valley. Vacant property in Phoenix, for example, costs almost 50 percent less per acre than the $793,700 per acre that raw land commanded in Southern Nevada during the first quarter, Cooper said.’
‘With pricier land comes more expensive housing. A softening of the local housing market — prices in July fell 4.8 percent in the last year to a median of $295,000, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors — hasn’t depressed home costs enough to convince owners of smaller businesses that their employees could afford to live in Southern Nevada, Cooper said.’
Boy, they got religion all of a sudden, even realizing lower prices are a ‘good thing.’
Blah, blah, blah, blah.
The same stuff we have been preaching for the last few years. Darn, come to think of it I have been posting on this blog for three years. Anyhow, the pain is just beginning. Wait till oct/2007. The other shoe will drop. How do I know this? From this blog.
Oh yeah they did - they expected all of this Ben, which would make them all bald face liars then I guess. Wait…wasn’t the NAR saying it was going to flatten then go up early 08′? Bunch of friggen no soul, greed driven no character shills. If I ever shaked hands on a deal with these guys, I would count my fingers afterwards.
Shake hands, bah, I wouldn’t walk across the street to pee on them if they were on fire.
LV will be like FL in that they will be forced into a state income tax to support the infrastructure created while housing prices are falling. Only LV will be hit even harder if we go into a recession as people will stay close to home and gamble at the local indian casinos.
salinas, I don’t see FL getting forced into a state income tax, because the voters would have to approve the constitutional amendment. With the way voters feel about taxes right now, I just don’t see it happening. Oh, don’t get me wrong, local gov and local media and pundits and such (wannabe local elites) are starting to bang the drum for the state income tax. We still have another source of income besides taxes, though. And that’s if we wipe out the tax cuts Jebbie gave to the wealthy, in the form of not taxing investment income, stock appreciation, corporate profits and such. Of course, the way the market is going, who is going to have any investment income to tax? Or regular income, for that matter?
We’ll just have to make do with less. Florida has survived busts before.
Trading stopped on Thornburg. Eikes! The S is hitting the F in the mortgage business.
We’ll see about that.
Give it time.
““‘It’s not that the lenders who take them back are going to try to dump them at low prices, they’re just going to be selling them at market………. says Shaw.”
We’ll see about that. Give it time.”
I think it’s a perfectly fair comment - market is just 35% or more lower than it was a year ago.
True…they won’t have to dump anything. At the time of the sale, Shaw’s ‘market’ will be sufficiently lower to move the inventory. Now that ‘market’ may be 30, 40 or 50% lower than today’s ‘market’, but a sale is a sale no?
I live in North Phoenix and get a monthly newsletter from Shaw’s firm. He is actually one of the few realtors with a clue as to what is going on.
From that statement above maybe not…
I hear him on the radio quite a bit pitching his “No Hassle Listing Program”
Just another salesman.
He is associated with Greg Swann and his blog. If you judge people by the company that they keep, well. . .
““By some accounts, prices would have to come down 33 percent from their peak to be affordable.”
“In the first quarter of 1999, 78 percent of homes for sale were within reach of a family earning the median income, according to real estate economist John Restrepo. By the end of 2006 only 14 percent of homes were affordable to those families.”
“A downward correction in home prices should be good news not just to Nevadans who have delayed or abandoned hope of buying a home, but to employers struggling to recruit workers.”
“‘I think you would have to have a huge drop for a lot of people to be able to afford a place to live,’ said Somer Hollingsworth, head of the Nevada Development Authority. ‘When you are making $30,000 to $35,000 to $40,000 a year, there is not much they can afford.’”
Why can’t the blathering media elite graps this simple fact?
I think it’s happening as we type, ed.
Case in point: “‘It doesn’t matter,’ Thornberg said. ‘It is a function of price and income. If you can’t afford it, you can’t afford it. It is that simple.’”
Stop buying stuff you can not afford (SNL video):
http://tinyurl.com/s4gx9
I remember that skit. One of the funniest and most on-target things they did in years.
A 33% drop won’t help those $40k earners afford anything. We need a 67% drop and that’s whats probably gonna happen. Prices were 3x cheaper before the bubble and will be 3x less again.
Do you think this Bubble will equal the Bubble in Japan? That one is taking 20 years to recover.
I expect LV to suffer a very mean downside overshoot. Outside of casinos the economy was built on a virtuous growth cycle. Well, after cramming 20 years of growth into 5 they’re discovering the current population can’t all be employed dealing cards and waiting tables.
Oh the humanity!
Oh, the portfolios!
LOL. um…I mean, wait a second….I’ve got a portfolio….f&ck!
Oh the Home-anity
Oh, the inanity!
Oh, the huge manatee!
To anyone who believes “it’s different here” in the Pacific Northwest: I can’t speak for Seattle, but here’s an appraisal story in Portland.
http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2007/08/13/story6.html?page=1&b=1186977600^1504308
It’s different in Seattle. I saw it on CNBC this morning. Inventories are rising sharply, home price increases are leveling off, but nobody expects a drop. Nobody. Not one person. I swear that is what one real estate agent said. On August 14, 2007. Nobody expects a drop in Seattle. Still digesting it.
Correction: nobody here expects a drop but us chicken littles …
Seattle Bubble Blog
My supervisor sold out of his house early last year, and has been renting. Today, he is out of the office right now at a house inspection for a house that he and another co-worker are planning to buy … There has never been a better time to buy than right now, huh, guys?
I haven’t troubled myself to explain my view of the housing market to them - I figure it would be a waste of breath on my part.
Money quote:
Richard Hagar, a Mercer Island, Wash.-based appraiser, said many problems come from ignorance. Some brokers genuinely may not realize that they’re not supposed to ask appraisers for a predetermined home value.
Uh-huh. That’s why appraisers learn all of those boring details about houses and neighborhoods and stuff. So they can help the broker “hit the number.”
“As for the future, Shaw says things will stay this way for awhile, but ‘it’s just almost like Nostradamus. I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer. So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening.’”
“‘It’s not that the lenders who take them back are going to try to dump them at low prices, they’re just going to be selling them at market. But it does hurt the area,’ says Shaw.”
Gets my vote for the most clueless comment of the year. Yeah, right; there are no buyers, so the banks will just hold on to the property and sell them at ‘market.’ That’ll work… until the first time they realize they are totally under water and have to bail.
Does it help to take stupid pills if you want to be a realtor who speaks to reporters?
My buying opportunity is coming.
i dunno.. i’m having second thoughts.. money might become too valuable to waste it on buying.
I hope to find the right house, held by the right bank, with the right account manager…
And if not I’ll stay where I am and keep my cash.
My mind-set exactly. I’ve got money and prime credit. I don’t need to spend it. But they’ve got houses, and they can’t sit on them forever. Pretty soon, they’re going to need me.
– Judge Smales
“You’ll get nothing and like it”
Back away from the purchase, people…
Ah but think of all the fun you can have at open houses putting bids at 40-50% below price.
“As for the future, Shaw says things will stay this way for awhile, but ‘it’s just almost like Nostradamus. I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer. So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening.’”
Russell Shaw. The ex-radio-DJ-turned-realtor who promises that he’ll buy your house if it doesn’t sell in 30 days. He really does see the future. LOL.
Yeah, but how much will he pay for it?
You wonder, don’t you? I’m sure the fine print on his listing contract has his ass covered.
“How could you have qualified for a $300,000 loan when your income is $40,000 a year.” Thus said Mike Sullivan of “Take Charge America”. Two points here Mike. #1. If they took out a $300,000 loan with incomes of $40,000 they were the financially better off level. Some took out $600,000 loans on $30,000 a year. Mike, you need to get out more or read this blog. #2. Your organizations title has it the wrong way around. It isn’t “Take Charge America.” It’s “Charge It America.”
Just like the movie, “Take Charge, America! F**k yeah!! We’re here to save your mother f**ing credit!”
OT, from The Big Picture blog’s comments:
Goldman Sachs Conference Call Highlights
“The US complains loudly about shoddy products imported from China all the while the rest of the world is gagging from shoddy financial products it (Goldman Sachs et al) willfully sold. Then when they do squawk about being sold weeds instead of roses, its their fault for gagging and squawking. A real twist of irony is, the effect of this direct foreign investment is foreign central banks have to loosen first now, so the US dollar is gaining a bid. Disgustingly sick on so many levels.”
I very much hope that the suits at Goldman Sachs will see smaller or zero bonus this year. I want them to suffer. A lot.
Smaller or zero bonuses! The horror. These guys look out for each other; the people who bear the brunt of these financial events are the ones who can least afford it. Oh well.
That’s Capitalism.
No, that’s a centrally controlled monetary system.
All this rather lame talk on why we are where we are? Easy, the builders created a pent up demand and they raised their prices at will. The public in disbelief that only they couldn’t afford a house rushed to judgement led by your friends and mine the RE agents and lenders. Now the dirty culprits the home builders,agents and lenders all turn around and ask not me i didn’t do it the crazy public led themselves to the slaughter, they should have known what a shell game was why blame us we need infusion against the public.
True, the bridge ahead is deemed unsafe, but you see loads of people crossing it and the short cut looks very safe so you don’t heed the warning you are the the last sheep on the bridge are now stuck in the middle with collaspe imininet, you look back and see the builders,agents and lenders taking down the bridge is unsafe sign and putting up enter at your own risk they flee safely into the night and you are stuck???
I can just picture what your saying . The sheep didn’t have any sane and caring voices stopping them . Greed and fear ,fueled by hype ,fraud ,and easy money, ruled the day .
From the original post:
“…an estimated 1 in every 3 jobs [in the Phoenix area] is in some way connected to real estate.”
Something is very wrong with this. Real estate does nothing to create wealth. All it does is move money around.
Real estate is parasitic. It is a maintenance, interest and insurance tax on the middle class, plus the property taxes. And the bigger the house the more worthless junk from China gets stuffed in it.
I know a dentist who owns a four bedroom three bath, and she lives by herself. All I need, and all I have, is one bath. Go figure.
Got 10% down?
Daffy Duck’s…. DDD index:
Dow 13,028.76
Down - 207.77 (1.57%)
Done!
NYSE Volume: 4,000,000,000 + again today? Actual: 3,547,454,000
Bugs: “eh, Daffy that was close… but no cigar”
Daffy: “Yeah… but spinning Taz backwards seemed to work Bugsy”
Bugs: “eh, we’d better try it again tomorrow just to make sure it works Daffy… Taz is from below the equator after all”
People tend to notice nice round numbers. Once the Dow drops below 13K, panic will ensue.
Yep, psychology works both ways!
There has been panic since the Friday before last, when the market fell sharply one day after already having fallen sharply and for the 3rd day out of four, something that hadn’t happened since the 2002 bottom. Some people just haven’t gotten the panic memo yet.
You in South Chandler too 85249? Cause yes flippers are toast, but I bought back in 2002 with a 30 year fixed % 5.25 and 25% down. Believe it or not I actually bought the house to LIVE in!
Yep. Bought in 2002. 30-year fixed at 6% with 20% down. My house was $78 per square foot and it’s the house I plan on living in at least until my kids are through high school (20 years). This area is absolutely full of Beverly Hills wannabes who are about to get their comeuppance.
“In the first quarter of 1999, 78 percent of homes for sale were within reach of a family earning the median income, according to real estate economist John Restrepo. By the end of 2006 only 14 percent of homes were affordable to those families.”
So, we’re talking about approx. 86% of homes for sell were over-priced for most people, but still sold anyway via all those stellar sub-prime/alt A mortgages?
No wonder Russell Shaw is talkin’ about Nostradamus.
But what percent of all homes were for sale?
Granted the economy will suffer a serious correction regardless, but if it were something like one percent or less, it wont be the end of the world, imo.
Joey> their are about 6 billion people in the world about 95% are law abbiding and want to be left alone that leaves 5% of trouble makers who want to make living a complete hell or in simple numbers about 25k insurgents in Iraq are causing the world all kinds of problems and their are 25 million decent citizens and 200k coliation forces who can’t handle the few numbers of crackpots, tell the tale of the tape looks okay for most home owners you say but the small % of problems and the outcome could be very different in real terms? take care
“25k insurgents in Iraq are causing the world all kinds of problems” wait a min… that is “their” world, not “the world” Sorry for your typo. I’m not really sorry that people resist an occupation, gee whizz it happens over and over again, just dust off a history book….the human spirit..
“..200k coliation forces who can’t handle the few numbers of crackpots..”
just to be fair.. “can’t” handle unless and until they are ordered and allowed to do what is required.
when everyone says things look bad, i try to keep a positive outlook if for nothing but to exercise self discipline.
tons of cash has been taken out via refi/heloc that has had a turbo-charge affect (think hummer pulling speedboat) on the economy.
The actual bills are just now arriving.
Homemoaners go back to being renters.. newly sprouted Realtors and mortgage brokers will go back to working greasy spoons.. Mfg. and services companies that boomed shrink to where they were.. High risk borrowers of all sorts are recognized for what they are.
Where was any lasting damage done?
The lasting damage is done to the pension funds and 401(k)s now loaded with toxic waste. The lasting damage is done to people that drained their 401(k)s and IRAs for a downpayment that will evaporate. The damage is done to the neighborhoods that will be full of vacant houses, squaters, crime. The damage is done to cities that have spent money on infrastructure planning to make it back on future elevated property taxes. The damage is done to the savings of individuals that will soon be filing for bankruptcy. The damage is done to farms and forests that have been cleared and turned into housing. The damage is done to the world’s financial instiutions that will see their assets devistated.
The damage is done in creating a generation that knows how to do nothing except consume. The factories are gone. The jobs shipped overseas. High rise condos with granite countertops and stainless steal apliances in their place. Foreign countries holding dollars, have control over our economy.
done to farms and forests that have been cleared .. that’s lasting, surely… and it bugs me.. makes me imagine someone ripping it all up.
But the rest are not necessarily lasting. Money lost can be replaced. Vacant home are eventually occupied. Cities that blew their wads expanding eventually grow into it. Bankruptcy doesn’t leave a permanent scar.
as far as factories and jobs, i see a good chance that some mfg. will return.. more than pre-bubble.. to provide needed jobs and to cut costs and feed local economies.
Greasy spoon jobs will not pay anywhere near what mortgage brokers and realwhores jobs were paying in the freenzy. No new fancy cars, eating out all the time, starbucks everyday, etc. Also, how about buying a house and they actually use your new salary to calculate what you can afford. That national median of $220k will be way out of reach. (that doesn’t buy squat in my area and I’m not on the coasts) So all the sellers will have to lower their prices. The ones who bought in the last few years will have to bring money to the table. The ones who’ve been there a while, will no longer have that nest egg they were counting on. And then they no longer can buy new cars, eat out etc.
Agreed.
Yep, that pretty much sums it up.
joey,
Go back and read up on the Great Depression. The same people, factories, farms, etc. were all there before and after the crash, nonetheless the U.S. was in a bad funk for over a decade thereafter.
Then again, don’t bother… you’ll soon experience it firsthand.
have any good recomendations for books on the depression ?
Depressing periods of varying degrees and durations are bound to happen frequently in the course of history.. To think otherwise is tantamount to assuming real estate will always appreciate.
All but a very few will survive this and in the end we’ll be collectively stronger.. and a bit wiser.
Masonman:
Had to read several books on the Great Depression for a college economics class. There was one that was titled “Roosevelt and the Great Depression,” and “The Great Depression of 1929″ but I don’t remember author ’s names. Check with your local library; it’s a popular subject and there are a lot of good reads out there. Don’t forget “Grapes of Wrath.”
Unfortunately, I haven’t found any good books on the depression, and I’ve been looking.
A recent one is “the forgotten man”, but it’s a political history written by a right-winger, on why FDR made things worse. She makes a good case.
Weakest Nostradamus comparison… ever.
“That’s where land is plentiful and many investors bought houses they now can’t afford. As for the future, Shaw says things will stay this way for awhile, but ‘it’s just almost like Nostradamus. I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer. So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening.’”
I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer . So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening.’”
Ahhh… so this idiot ‘Shaw’ sees the Joshua tree coming his way. Most excellent.
“I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer. So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening”
Nice to know that something like the Great Depression can’t happen, since it has never happend before.
Oh… Shaw is talking about the history of the last 5 years……
Pay nothing for two years on a flat sreen TV, wow sounds good lets do it, make no payments for two years on a kitchen upgrade wow sound good lets do it, cable bill just $20 more a month more a month for HD tv sounds good lets do it, buy a larger home with no interest low down sounds good lets do it, buy a luxury car o% interest or better yet a one pay lease payment for two years, sounds good lets do it, and that is the fate of the avg wage earner in this nation everything sounds good but ends up so bad???
c’mon. don’t be such a Debbie Downer.
i have no idea what my parents did to me, but i truely hate being in any sort of debt.. it’s like an irrational thing.. a fear, that won’t go away.
I’m afraid my parents gave me the same inoculation. Unfortunately,like the polio vaccine, they no longer issue it here in the USA.
Got popcorn?
Neil
My parents weren’t all that great with their finances. I learned by watching their mistakes. Perhaps the next generation after all these FBs will be the same. One can hope.
For me, it was a combination of responsible parents and few irresponsible episodes of my own in my post-college years. Both positive and negative reinforcement.
Maybe its called living through the Depression”?
At least that is why I have the same fear passed on to me by my parents and grandparents. Finally, maybe growing up poor might have something to do with it.
No-interest financing is a good thing if you do it right (ie. budget for the eventual payments) but can be a real bitch if you forget that you have to eventually pay it off.
People keep touting jobs on CNBC but they don’t understand that the jobs that are being created don’t pay that well. Wages have to rise or hise prices have to fall. What do you think will be happening?
C’mon! The Congress just raised the minimum wage to $5.85 per hour. We’ve never been richer!
Lucky no water in mouth…
I think hillary will be elected and minimum wage will be set at $143 an hour.
And a new flat tax will be 95%.
And if Rudy Guliani wins, we’ll have a drag queen in the White House who invites Gotham real estate mogul Donald Trump to stay in the Lincoln Bedroom….
And even better, if Romney wins, we’ll have 4 First Ladies…!
And if Ron Paul wins?
They also don’t understand that most of those are “phantom”. Birth Death Model, Birth Death Model.
I prefer to call it the death model thats not got the memo.
Yet.
“‘As we look at some of these people we say, how could you have ever qualified for a $300,000 loan when your total income is $40,000 a year?’ said Mike Sullivan, director of education at Take Charge America, which counsels people struggling with debt.”
Suicide no doc liar loans. Thank god they are history. All those people will get foreclosed as they don’t deserve a house
Endrogados.
Got 10% down?
1 in 3 jobs related….yup contained!
Wait a second, I thought Phoenix was 40% REIC.
good thing no one sells REIC workers cars, cell phones, vacations, homes, gourmet food, sports tickets, cable TV/DSL, Plasma screens, …
I pray when they go to buy their alchohol they still have enough change left for shampoo.
Got popcorn?
Neil
You can get shampoo for free when you use your guest pass at the fitness spa. Just fill up your water bottle with shampoo in the shower, then stash it at the bottom of your spa bag. Also check the lost and found — you might be able to score a new swim suit too.
councilors , hand holders
hmmmm guess the taxpayer is funding these folks that “new it was coming
I love it when everything works according to logic. Suddenly common sense is gaining upper hand. 1/3rd hair cut is minimum. The memo should go out to the sellers soon.
‘We all knew it was coming,’ said Patricia Garcia Duarte, executive director of Neighborhood Housing Services of a Phoenix non-profit that counsels home buyers.”
I bet the director of a non-profit debt counciling service would have known it was coming. I just wanted to post this before someone mistook her for part of the REIC.
Heck, she might even have a username on this blog.
Talk about someone who will see the frontline pay every day for years to come.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Seven out, line away~
Next Shooter… in the home of craps, please
“The median price of Las Vegas homes fell $10,000 in July to the lowest point since March 2005, starting what some observers suggest may be a major correction in the existing home market.”
Bring it! I’d love to see $10K per month losses here in Portland.
Me too, if it gets cheap enough, I might relocate to Oregon or Washington. Otherwise ill be NW Pennsylvania
Ode to Glen Campbell…
By the time I get to Phoenix, foreclosures will be rising
They’ll find the N.O.D. note on her door
She’ll laugh when she reads the part about leaving
‘Cause I’ve heard this story so many times before
By the time the news reaches Albuquerque, the market stopped working
A Realtor will beg me @ lunch, to give me a call
But i’ll just hear that phone keep on ringin’
Off the wall that’s all
By the time the housing bubble falls in Oklahoma, rather steeply
It’ll turn swiftly and a Realtor will call my name out loud
Tho’ time and time I try to avoid him so
He just didn’t know, how low it could really go
sweet
Bart simpson
“As for the future, Shaw says things will stay this way for awhile, but ‘it’s just almost like Nostradamus. I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer. So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening.’”
Your future, Mr. Glib: scraping frogs off your windshield.
Luv,
Jen
Thanks to whomever mentioned SRS the other day. I had not heard of ultrashorts. Shorting (with its limited up-side, unlimited down-side and short time horizon) is not really my cup of tea. Going long suits me better, but it’s still too close to gambling (for me), as opposed to a more value investing approach, to risk much money. I just had to find a way to risk a little “mad” money (Booyah, Cramer, you dolt) on the fall of the REIC and it’s hard to turn down 10% in two days…
What exactly is the big deal with the 15th? Hedge funds have to report how they are actually doing or something like that? Clearly clueless…
MrBubble
Sorry for the Henry Jamesian prose above. Got lost in some sentences…
Apparently many hedge funds only allow redemptions at the end of the quarter and require a 45-day notice, hence tomorrow is cut-off to apply for end of quarter redemptions. (And lots don’t allow ANY redemptions in the first year of ownership.) High redemptions means hedgies must sell off positions, putting further downward pressure on prices. Some may collect small selling fees for early redemptions, which at least helps a little. But my impression is that in all this mess a lot of the subprime and illiquid junk is not moving because there is no market for it - what is getting sold, collateralized, etc. is higher-grade paper. So, once again, the situation is probably worse than it appears.
What’s getting sold is big cap stocks, hence the Dow dump. And shorts are being covered to raise cash, hence the inexplicable moves in crap.
Thanks, Paul. Unfortunately for me, your comments demonstrate to me that I don’t know my a$$ from a hole in the ground about most of what is discussed here (outside of rudimentary econ) and that I need to look up and understand redemptions and “ABCP” before continuing. Which in turn will lead me, I am sure, to other questions and down the rabbit hole we go…
“Damn It, Jim! I’m a climate scientist not an economist!”
Thanks, to both. I posted areplay earlier but it got lost.
Got it, I think. Didn’t realize that redemptions was really just the guy at the Bailey Building and Loan who wanted his 482 dollars — right now (or he’d run to Mr. Potter for 50 cents on the dollar…cash!). Big cap gets sold b/c they don’t move down so much on the volume of the sell off. Thanks again.
I felt the same way about Ultra Pro funds. In and out in three days. Schwab is extremely slow in processing my IRA purchases and sales.
A more conservative short fund (actively manages with no leveraging) is the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) and the Prudent Global Income Fund (PSAFX). If you believe like I do, that we will be in a relatively long down/bear market, this may be the way to go. The rest of my funds are in US-Treasuries, CD’s and Treasury MM Funds.
Yeah. A slow decline. But I’d love a small bounce back since I had forgetten about to protect my 401k, half of which is still in an index fund. It’s lost 8% over the last couple of days. Was supposed to go to cash this weekend, but got loaded with my brother and never dealt. O, sweet bourbon…brownest of the brown liquors!
At least the money I made off of selling the condo is mostly in cash now with less than 100K in any account, just in case the demise is not slow…
I will peruse those funds tonight. Thanks, Lost.
The leveraged bear funds don’t seem to perform better than bearx, compare trends during the tech bubble pop, and after. I don’t see any good reason to go with the UltraPro family.
I second bearx. I lack deeper understanding of the way it works, but it pretty much a mirror image of the dow. I have gained 5-8 percent in the last few weeks on it.
I would also like to thank the person who posted information on SRS. I made a nice little profit on it today. I’ll wait until the PPT intervenes and buy it again on a dip.
I have been bearish for five years. I love this site.
Been needs a “stupid realtor/FB’er quote of the day” feature:
8/14 - ‘I’ve seen the future. It’s a lot like the past, only longer. So, nothing phenomenally bad is going to be happening. It’s not that the lenders who take them back are going to try to dump them at low prices, they’re just going to be selling them at market. But it does hurt the area.’ - Realtor Russell Shaw
8/13 - ???
8/12 - ‘But the bottom line is that the seller has to make some money off the deal, so you can’t come in and lowball too much,’ - Realtor Ken Kohler
Bright light city gonna be a big hole
Gonna set it’s soul on fire
Got a whole lotta money that’s ready to burn
So get those stakes up higher
There’s tens of thousands of pretty houses waitin’ out there
and so few have been lived in, investors despair
And i’m just the devil’s advocate, like I really could care?
No viva Las Vegas, no viva Las Vegas
“The people I feel sorry for are the regular folks. Their home is often their biggest investment, and they’ve been failed by a market that didn’t rein in the aggressive businesses that gambled on continuously increasing prices.”
This is such garbage. The so-called “regular folks” who gambled their 401k or whatever on some hare-brained perpetual mcmansion appreciation scheme, also known as buying a house at the top of the market, are as responsible as the predatory lenders and the lying realtors. Noone should be able to play the victim card in this mess except those who fell prey to outright fraud.
soon ,even wives won’t be bitching for a bigger house
lethal heat waves in Phoenix, probably not helping
lethal? Hardly. I never hear of old people dying due to heat in Phoenix or Tucson during this time of year. I hear of them dying in Chicago when they have a heat wave. Sr must be in Maine or someplace similar. Check back with us in 6 months and we’ll talk about lethal cold snaps in the northeast.
Yeah, NBC news was going on tonight about the horrible 102 degree temps in Dallas and Oklahoma City. I’m not impressed…
I hope Ben saved all our posts for his upcoming book: “We knew all along: How to see the economic future with nothing more than common sense.”
You can’t shear sheep using common sense.
This just in: no listing fees for sellers tomorrow on ebay! Holy Cr^p! I’ve never seen them do this before. They’ve discounted listing fees, but I’ve never seen a no-listing fee promotion. Bidnezz must be sucking….
On the contrary, eBay will prosper when people have to sell the shirts off their back to pay their over-priced mortgages. Actually eBay is a great investment right now. Brilliant idea imho….
Yeah, I don’t think you’re wrong about that, but seriously, I’ve never seen no listing fees on ebay, that’s unusual. Not everything listed on ebay sells, but they still get their listing fees, even if they discount them. But, August is traditionally ebay’s slowest month, and this one may be slower than usual, so I’m sure they’re trying to stimulate business.
I agree on the growth of demand for the service. E-bay has a bright future for the next few years. Its going to become even more socially acceptable to be seen using “used goods.”
As to investment… I’m not certain, but I’ll probably pick up some stock.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Heck, before too long using “new goods” may be akin to painting a target on your back.
It’s not unprecedented. They’ve done it several times in the past.
Thanks for the info. I never saw that before, but I’m not on there all the time to know, anyway.
My understanding is that their business is good but has reached a bit of a plateau. Everybody got used to crazy growth by eBay, but its core business does have limits. They’ve tried to expand the ‘non-auction’ part of the business, which is basically businesses selling fixed-price stuff on eBay listings that come up with search results and look kinda like auctions.
eBay trades around 35 X earnings but it’s hard to know if growth is 30% or 10%. They plateaued in 2006 although growth is said to be improving again. Europe is strong. The franchise looks pretty much unassailable now and although the stock doesn’t look cheap it’s probably a pretty safe place if you have a 10-year horizon, but kind of boring. One caveat: possible laws to require collection by online sellers of state sales taxes, or the coming VAT, to be sold as the Health Insurance Security Investment Surcharge, or some such.
This situation is awesome. It is the first time in a LONG TIME that the markets are actually acting rational. Everyone sees the huge risks. Even CNBC is talking honestly about it now. It is almost eerie seeing so many “experts” now bringing up problems we all knew were about to explode.
And to think that so many rich aholes on Wall Street are seeing their wealth implode is priceless. These people helped rip off the entire nation. They have this coming in spades.
This implosion is like holding a mirror up to this nation. See what we are?
Con artists. “Patriots” that spend every waking moment trying to scam their countrymen. A government so totally corrupt they make Nixon blush. Citizens willing to look the other way while an innocent country is attacked. Too focused on Paris Hilton to give a shit.
KARMA in a MAJOR way. I think this will be a lesson my kids will keep with them for decades.
As Chimp would say…BRING IT ON!
Bwahahahah! Cocaine Larry is blaming the recent volatility in the stock market on the SEC’s decision in July to allow traders to short a stock on the downtick:
http://tinyurl.com/ytukas
I’ve seen some stupid explanations for this bear run, but this one may take the cake!
If the sec is guilty of anything, it’s lax oversight. I wonder what he will say when the s&p has a 100 point down day.
The SEC is the great protector of wall street. It does not look out for you.
I live in Santa Cruz. I know someone who wanted to sell his house 3 months ago to retire to the south. Deal fell through, now no one even comes by. He’s still working. His agent told him not to reduce the price, “just take it off the market until October…the season is over for now and will start back up again in Fall”
Yeah…Fall of 2012
You are right - some reality may be found in Santa Cruz by then.
What is funny is “‘This has got a ways to go,’ economist Chris Thornberg said. ‘Las Vegas has gotten way overbuilt and has some problems. When you look at the price of homes and incomes, it is just not sustainable.’”
Did this guy ignore this arguement last year when talking about LA?
Suddenly fundamentals and income are in style again.
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-08-13 17:22:25
Evolution largely bred the independence out of the herd during the dark ages of global Christian hegemony, as most independent thinkers tended to be branded as heretics or witches and summarily burned at the stake. Those of us who think for ourselves must represent some kind of mutant strain that has arisen since the onset of the Age of Enlightenment.
I must be one of those “mutants” because I think independantly and do not follow the herd on what is a “must” It appears that the collective group is stuck in the location myth. There is slight truth to it but not in those blown proportions that those guys want you to believe. Most of you don’t get it though.
I don’t do well in teams or groups because I can not usually agree with what the rest of the group thinks/wants. Let others think what they want. Im getting the best deal on my choices of locations as well as other things in life. Even my parents dont get it. They prefer I stay in south FL. HA HA this location sucks! Maybe they will see the light when we visit NW Pennsylvania
Didn’t see anyone comment on what I thought was the most interestingly true statement from a Realtwhore so far…
“That’s where land is plentiful …”
Weren’t they all singing to the tune of “they’re not making anymore land..” or this area is “boxed in by mountains…” etc, etc, etc. not 6 months ago?!