A Pretty Broad Implication In Florida
The Miami Herald reports from Florida. “In a blow to an already weak housing market, Option One Mortgage will no longer provide mortgages to buy Florida condos, a decision industry watchers warn other lenders could copy. Option One’s move comes as the once-hot market for condominiums in Florida has become glutted with thousands of unsold units.”
“Warned Alex Barron, an analyst with Agency Trading Group: ‘It’s got a pretty broad implication.’ If other lenders follow, ‘you’re going to find a lot of very desperate buyers’ who won’t be able to close even if they wanted to.’”
“The news comes at a dark time for the Sunshine State, which has found itself in a condo glut. In Miami-Dade County, there’s a 31-month supply of existing condos, and the pace of sales has dropped nearly 40 percent year over year, according to McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach.”
“‘I think the worst thing you want to do in this market is be a condo seller,’ said Jim Gillis, broker in Miami. ‘It’s almost like a disease that is going to be very difficult to get rid of.’”
“Something is missing from two new companion condo towers in the inner core of Miami’s downtown: cars. The white towers of the Loft 1 and Loft 2 buildings have no garages.”
“Forgoing on-site parking means huge savings in land and construction costs for developers, and affordable, well-finished if compact urban dwellings for buyers.”
“If all five buildings are completed, downtown would have about 1,600 new workforce condos, according to the parking authority. Prices at Loft 1’s 196 units, now open and occupied, ranged from $99,000 to $250,000. At Loft 4, a planned 404-unit tower, sales opened this week, with prices at $139,000 to $399,000.”
“‘Urban housing should not have parking on site, especially workforce housing,’ said Miami real estate analyst Michael Cannon. ‘People in Miami have to be educated that that’s the way it should be.’”
From CNBC. “Mike Huckman reports that the tip of the Florida peninsula is being called the ‘ground zero’ of the market downturn.”
“He says that in Florida’s three toniest counties, prices have plunged 7%-9% over the past year, thanks to ballooning inventory. Some 45,000 new condos are currently being built, on top of 63,000 condo conversions over the past few years.”
“One site Huckman visited, a $91 million, 522-unit condo conversion project, is now in receivership.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “I’m living next to the Amazon jungle, you see. My neighbor’s once-pristine property has gone to seed, another casualty in America’s stagnant housing market. For months, the ‘For Sale’ sign in the weedy front yard was the punch line of a cruel shopworn joke.”
“Gone from our communities are scores of families that overreached pursuing the American dream. Left behind are thousands of homeowners who inherited the nightmare of declining property values and shabby vacant homes that are selling as fast as Slurpees in the Arctic in a market with a 20-month glut of homes.”
“Code-enforcement units report spikes in complaints about overgrown yards, pools with foul green water and junky driveways. ‘You’d be surprised at the number of overgrown lots at [upscale Orlando communities] Vista East and MetroWest,’ says Mike Rhodes, code-enforcement manager for Orlando.”
“Don’t bother calling the real-estate agent on the ‘For Sale’ sign. All he or she can do is plead with the property owner to act responsibly. William Weaver, a real-estate professor at the University of Central Florida, says lenders have a legal duty, a fiduciary responsibility to the foreclosed, and an ethical responsibility to keep the property from becoming an ‘eyesore.’ In reality, though, you often have to ‘rattle the chain to get them to cut the grass.’”
“Overgrown properties, he says, ‘obviously are going to be a concern now and will continue to be a concern. It’s not going away, and it’s going to get worse.’”
“‘Too many people have been funded who really shouldn’t have gotten loans, and as a result it’s affected all of us,’ says Gary Balanoff, VP of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association.”
‘”We’re now trying to bail out of a leaky-boat situation.’”
The Herald Tribune. “Think the global credit crunch is something distant? Not if your loan was in the pipeline from First Magnus, which made $30 billion in mortgages last year and employs 5,000 people, all of whom were sent home from work, apparently for good, on Thursday.”
“The First Magnus episode is becoming all too common, and that phenomenon is making itself felt in Southwest Florida, where real estate is the king of the hill.”
“‘A lot of lenders I used to work with are going out of business,’ said Marta Grande, a Sarasota mortgage broker who had counted on First Magnus for quite a few loans up until this week. ‘I would have to say about 40 percent.’”
“‘All of us in the food chain, bankers, builders developers, mortgage lenders, I would say we all got a little bit intoxicated with the market,’ said Jody Hudgins, Florida executive for the First National Bank of Pennsylvania, which operates in Sarasota and five other Florida communities.”
“‘As far as getting a loan, it is a real, real struggle to get somebody with good credit a loan,’ Grande said.”
“Even very prosperous investors like Sarasota’s Harvey Vengroff, founder of the world’s largest debt collection agency, are running into extreme makeovers on their real estate loan paperwork.”
“‘One is for $5.7 million on a property that was a no-brainer a couple of months ago,’ groused Vengroff. ‘Now they’re asking for more information and checking their verbiage and doing other stupid stuff.’”
“The media has put nearly all its attention on defaults for so-called subprime mortgages. However, less exotic creations like ‘no-documentation loans’ for those with high credit ratings and big bank accounts, and even normal real estate loans for investors, are becoming rarer.”
“‘It all kind of went down with the subprime, but that’s all everybody hears about,’ said Max Shaw, a residential lending officer at People’s Community Bank in Sarasota.”
“Like Grande, he said that so-called ‘Alt-A’ loans have nearly vanished. ‘It is just getting back to the way it should be,’ Shaw maintains. ‘It is just that you are going to have to have decent credit and you are going to have to prove you have what you say you have.’”
“The nation is still about 18 months away from feeling the full impact of those loans, because they reached their peak popularity about two years ago, said Sarasota’s Bob DeCecco, the former head of Opteum Financial Services’ Florida operations.”
“‘So these individuals got 100 percent loan-to-value loans, on properties that are now depreciating, with interest rates increasing, and a tighter credit market, in which they would not even re-qualify for that program,’ DeCecco said. ‘They have to refinance, and they can’t.’”
“Shaw said he has plenty of money to lend, for those planning to move into the home. OK, but what about an investor seeking to buy and then rent out a bargain home being made available by a desperate seller?”
“‘I couldn’t even quote you investor money,’ Shaw said.”
“The collateral damage from cheap money turning expensive is definitely not limited to consumers. The run-up in volume and prices on expensive homes during the first half of the decade caused developers and builders to bolt herd-like to grab property for future construction.”
“In nearly every case, there was a banker at the front end making a construction loan with an interest payment reserve to tide the developer over while he or she prepared the property for eventual sale.”
“With those projects now getting postponed in Southwest Florida’s slow housing market, those interest payment ’set-asides,’ in some cases, are now running out, said Hudgins.”
“A lot of those real estate speculators and developers will not have the money to carry the debt. Banks will then be faced with ‘limited options,’ one of which is foreclosure, he said.”
“‘Nearly every banker in Florida got seduced,’ Hudgins said. ‘What we never put into the equation was how much of the purchasing was fueled by easy money, cheap money, foolish money, from lending sources that were desperate to meet their production needs.’”
‘You would have to go back, way back to find out when this last happened. Unemployment across Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties is worse than the state average. It seems a sure sign that the impact of the suffering housing market and recent layoffs at some of Southwest Florida’s manufacturing companies is making itself known at the unemployment office.’
‘Its once-booming housing market at a near-halt, St. Lucie County showed a dramatic spike in unemployment in July, state officials said Friday. Unemployment rose to 6.6 percent from 5.6 percent in June, giving St. Lucie the dubious distinction of having the state’s second-highest rate, trailing only Hendry County’s 9.9 percent. Indian River County also had 6.6 percent unemployment.’
‘Slower construction activity has rippled through St. Lucie County’s service-heavy economy, said David Skiles, president of First Peoples Bank in Port St. Lucie. ‘We’re so dependent on housing,’ Skiles said. ‘It’s one of the big drivers, and that has slowed considerably.’
Remember when we were told, over and over, that only a recession could cause home prices to fall?
i guess we must be in a recession then, according to those pea-brains
“Remember when we were told, over and over, that only a recession could cause home prices to fall?”
Only falling home prices could cause a recession…
“‘Urban housing should not have parking on site, especially workforce housing,’ said Miami real estate analyst Michael Cannon. ‘People in Miami have to be educated that that’s the way it should be.’”
Just… wow. Don’t give ‘em a parking spot. That should make those condoz weaaaaaaalllllly desirable.
e.d.
““‘Urban housing should not have parking on site, especially workforce housing,’ “
So what’s this “especially workforce housing” mean, that the serfs should not have cars while the elite get to drive around?
They don’t want them to be able to leave during hurricanes.
Miami has the lowest educational level of any major city in the USA, but they still shoud have been able to quote someone better than Michael Cannon, who is obviously a moron. Public transportation in Miami is very limited - how are these people supposed to get to work? Or maybe they should park their cars out on the street, where there’s about a 50% chance they’ll be there in the morning.
What an innovation…..we can label it …DRIVE BY HOUSING
I can’t figure out which is more dumb…….building places to live with no place to park, or buying a home with no place to park. People have to be educated that’s how it should be?? What kind of idiot is he??
Maybe he’s from Boston, a city where the concept of pulling up in front of your home and parking is alien. If, in fact, you do get a spot, you take walk to a T station for days, just to hang on to it. Mostly, when you come out in the morning, you don’t know where your car is, you can’t remember how many blocks you had to walk home after you parked it.
Can’t live in florida without a car. When the Miami Herald reported on the downtown condo development in 2005 the made it sound like Miami would be the next NYC. I remember the Future Map of Miami they printed as a poster insert showing the skyline like a small Manhattan. Only there is nowhere to go.
This guy is just so stupid. I am sure that he doesn’t take himself public transportation. I’ve used them for one year in Miami and I can tell you that it is an absolute punishment.
And even if you are using public transportation, you will still have a car, to go grocery shopping, carry visitors to the beach or to the malls, etc. So when you ae using public transportation to go to work, where do you park your car?
In old cities like Paris I can understand that all buildings don’t have parking. But any new building should have 1.5 parking spots for a 1 bedroom, so visitors can also park. The building can even rent some out to make some additional money to pay for the maintenance.
Such a stupid comment. I think that it is only the clout of the Related Group that helped them to get away for that.
Regards.
FD @ Condo-hotel Miami
“With those projects now getting postponed in Southwest Florida’s slow housing market, those interest payment ’set-asides,’ in some cases, are now running out, said Hudgins.”
“A lot of those real estate speculators and developers will not have the money to carry the debt. Banks will then be faced with ‘limited options,’ one of which is foreclosure, he said.”
Wow, banks owning developments and swaths of land, all over FLA. Awesome. I wondered when the builders would stop building and the only response anyone could give me was “builders have to build”. Well, people have to crap, too, but they stop doing it when their system shuts down and what follows is death.
So, now I know the end game of this one: Builders have to build, until the banks won’t give ‘em any money. That’s when they stop.
Developer defaults marked the beginning of the slippery slope in the Texas bust in the 80’s. People can hardly believe that half-finished subdivisions were bulldozed, but it happened. Next were the lender defaults. Hmmm.
“People can hardly believe that half-finished subdivisions were bulldozed”
I would love to see some of the half-finished subdivisions around here bulldozed. Speaking of which, I’m not seeing much action at the latest Centex development. I drive by there almost every day.
I remember driving out to Rockwall on I30 and seeing all the half built condos rotting on the side of the highway. Eventually many of these were bulldozed. I’ve seen very few people willing to acknowledge that this downturn will be so much worse, and so much more widespread.
maybe we can plant corn on the newly-cleared land and start up an ethanol plant to replace all the oil we retards import! yeah, that’ll work! lmao
Palmetto,
Centex is still going like gangbusters in North Port off of I75 at exit 179. This is all 55 up housing. I hear it is in the 250k plus range. This stuff is not goingm to sell at that price.
I drove over to my brothers place in Titusville this weekend.
The amount of ongoing construction on the south side of Orlando is incredible to see !!!
Here in Titusville guys my brother work with are renting 3/3’s in a brand new condo tower for 750-900 month. Asking for these brand new units ….600k. Ouch.
Also i figured i would let ya know there is a 2/1 cbc construction for sale on Port Charlotte for 49k in great shape. There are now over 300 properties under 100k.
It is just starting to get good around here!!!
Chris
Chris, I just got back and thanks for the report, brothah!
I’m seeing a couple of those 2/1 block homes listed up in Tampa, hoping to find something around here like that, not in the barrio.
Chris — are those the ones at the end of Garden Street, at the corner of US1 and the bridge? If yes, that is probably the best rental deal I’ve yet heard of in Florida, for rent vs. selling price. On the other hand, it is a good-looking condo complex with great Intracoastal Waterway views — in the wrong place. IMO, there’s nowhere near enough money in that area to support such prices and someone who had to sell right now might get half that amount (which still makes the rent a good deal). Titusville is not close to much of anything, except Dixie Crossroads and US1 and I-95 in the middle of nowhere.
I’d like to see some of the finished subdivisions bulldozed. I drove around Seminole Heights today and was shaking my head at how nice some of the restored bungalows looked. Why can’t we build like that anymore?
Reminds me of the crazy NY taxi driver who beeped the horn every 5 seconds and when I asked him to stop he looked at me and stated “I most beep. I most beep.”
‘They have to refinance, and they can’t.’
Like running out of gas in the middle of nowhere.
“‘Urban housing should not have parking on site, especially workforce housing,’ said Miami real estate analyst Michael Cannon. ‘People in Miami have to be educated that that’s the way it should be.’”
Sure, the “workforce” should leave their cars on the streets to be trashed and broken into. The wealthy should have extra protections, at the expense of the “workforce”, which includes the police.
“workforce housing”
Nice bit of comtempt there for the wage-earners. That should work well when trying to unload these overpriced condos. When the place goes Section 8, you can spend your time educating the non-working force that will move in.
This all will be pure slum housing. At least the working poor will be able to walk home to stainless and granite.
I think it’s safe to say that Mr. Cannon and this condo bunch (and their banks) are about to get their own “education”.
But man, what contempt. They’re almost as bad as a journalist.
Not being a native of Miami, I would image the competition has condos with parking? Cocky Mike needs to get a education himself with his attitude about parking. Where is txchick & her 20 lb trout!
Not only do virtually all condos in Florida have parking, if you want to sell a new one it better have covered parking. In the higher-end units, it is now common to have two dedicated parking spaces, at least one of which is “inside.”
I wonder what these Miami developers are doing with the ground level — presumably it will be commercial. Anybody know a company that will insure ground-level in a high-hurricane-risk coastal city? I had thought that all current codes in Florida required the ground floor to be essentially “blow-through,” as with parking space — maybe I’m wrong about that.
Good points…this is starting to look like the sham deals in the S&L days.
“The nation is still about 18 months away from feeling the full impact of those loans, because they reached their peak popularity about two years ago, said Sarasota’s Bob DeCecco, the former head of Opteum Financial Services’ Florida operations.”
That takes us right into 1Q09, just in time for the Superbowl and the Inauguration.
Good morning everyone,
Last year I was really concerned about a rise in crime. I don’t know what the stats say, but I feel safer and see less craziness contrary to what I thought would happen.
Is everyone resigned to the slide? Was the craziness everyone just trying to “get theirs?”
I haven’t seen a contractor drive over the median on Seminole Blvd. in months. Last year it was a daily phenomenon.
Muggy, I think it depends on where you are. Here in South Hillsborough, we’ve just had a rash of business burglaries in the Sun City Center community. This sort of widespread crime is very unusual in this area, but no longer. The sheriff’s office held some special meetings about it. The number of break-ins in the area has gone up dramatically, along with gang activity (much of which is courtesy of the illegal devil spawn. This is so much the case, one of the local columnists, in doing a story on the phenomenon, made a big deal of pointing out that one of the burglars was a “white man”, while declining to give the race or ethnicity of the so-called “juveniles” who were mainly involved in the burglaries.)
In Dallas, there’s a sense that the crime rate is spiriling upwards. The city even started reporting crime in a different manner, hoping to surrender the top spot in the national crime statistics. Even with the new reporting, Dallas is No. 1. Every morning the news shows are wall to wall with breaking news, smash and grabs, car jackings and murders. It’s either overblown by the media, or this is one crazy, sick, dangerous city. I’m voting for #2 since I’m live a block from where less than a month ago some nice folk decided to randomly unload from a highway overpass next to downtown into a nice apartment complex, hitting a pregnant woman in her bed while she slept, killing the 8 month old fetus she was carrying. Tough to sensasionalize something like that.
Yep, keep the people fearful. If the media can’t do it through fear-talk, flood the country with vicious gangs, illegals and divide communities against each other, while preventing people from taking the necessary actions to rid themselves of crime. In fact, ENFORCE criminals and invaders on the communities. What’s that called? It’s called war.
I can tell you for a fact that 99% of the burglars are juvenile, and most are the children of illegal immigrants. I was aghast at the level of crime in eastern and south Hillsborough counties. It was a fabulous welcome to FL to discover that the place is overrun by a bunch of little gang-banging, gun-toting 14-year-olds. And how much worse do you think it’s going to get now that the parents lost their low-paying service and construction-sector jobs? That’s why I pay a premium to live in S. Tampa.
Before they stopped counting because it was deemed too racist I remember reading that 68% of our residential burglaries in San Diego were the work of illegals.
That can’t be true.
They all came here to work hard and do the jobs “Americans won’t do”/
Ask that imbecile in the White House and our Latino Senator Martinez who sponsored the “legalize illegals” bill in Senate.
I can’t believe this. They are such a great group of people.
Ditto. Same here. South Tampa has cleaned up a lot but I avoid anything south of Gandy.
Near my moms place in Miami they just had a newscaster whose home was burglarized while he was on the news. The community he lives in is a well established upper class area. They were commenting on how the “professionals” knew to plan it around his scheduled newscast. Can’t figure out if you are going to spend that kind of money, why wouldn’t you have an alarm system..
“well-finished if compact urban dwellings for buyers.”
LMAO! “Well-finished” dwellings. If they were built from 2000 on, that’s an oxymoron here in Florida.
“‘Nearly every banker in Florida got seduced,’ Hudgins said. ‘What we never put into the equation was how much of the purchasing was fueled by easy money, cheap money, foolish money, from lending sources that were desperate to meet their production needs.’”
A favorite story from Soviet Russia was one where a state shoe manufacturer was under great duress, as he was told to make 1 million pairs of shoes, although they only had enough leather to make 500,000 pairs, what to do?
Problem solved… he made one million pairs of women’s shoes in a size too small for anybody, but he met his quota.
“Overgrown properties, he says, ‘obviously are going to be a concern now and will continue to be a concern. It’s not going away, and it’s going to get worse.’”
And Disney just had the chutzpah to raise their rates here in FLA. Yep, come to Florida for the fun at Disney, pay more, go home with a souvenir of West Nile (or dengue fever) to remember those fun filled, humid days at Disney you’re still paying for on your credit card.
Ah, dengue fever. That’s just not something the folks from up north even think about (until they get it).
I have a family member who has it, got it on a trip to the Caribbean. Apparently, you never get rid of it, it lurks in the system.
I’ve had dengue and it was much worse than malaria (had that too). After a week of awful vomiting, diarrhea, high fever, swollen joints, and sleep deprivation I dropped from 145 to 115 lbs. I looked like a concentration camp inmate and could barely walk (great opportunity to send photos home and freak out the parents).
It wouldn’t take more than a few cases of dengue to send Florida residents running for the exits.
As far as I’m aware, dengue doen’t linger in your system (as malaria can). But if you get dengue a second time it is supposed to be much worse.
was recently in Yellowstone Natl Park - have never been there, as I don’t like crowds, but a friend said to go, it was empty.
It was empty. On a weekend, too. So maybe people are travelling less, as this is prime time for the natl parks, right before school starts.
I’m curious to see how the ski resort towns do this year. My guess is they are going to be hurting and this should put the kibosh on the real estate as well. I used to own a condo just north of Yellowstone in Big Sky. The realtors there were always touting investment real estate using the argument that “everybody’s got to take a vacation”. Yeah right.
I posted Gallatin Valley (Bozeman/Big Sky) earlier on the local developments thread, but that post seems to have vanished into the ether.
So Gallatin Valley MLS
Category, 8/9/2007, 8/16/2007
SF under 1 acre, 1144, 1136
Condo/Townhouse, 880, 886
SF over 1 acre, 740, 739
Total homes, 2870, 2866
Lots, 3017, 3026
Other land, 1188, 1220
Almost none have pending offers
Using recent census data:
81k population (2006), 3% annual growth
34k housing units (2005)
So 1 home + 1 lot on the MLS for every 28 current residents (including children, many students, and recreational transients). Or 8% of total housing inventory (including multifamily rental units) are currently on the market. And this doesn’t include (1) abundant FSBO’s, (2) many builder homes, and (3) a huge number of homes taken off the market “until things pick up.”
Crash and Burn.
Forgot one estimated statistic: 10%+ SFH, condos and townhomes are currently listed on the MLS. And this is a conservative estimate.
When boom goes bust, you can expect population to decline dramatically (this happened with the previous Bozeman bust) due to the very transient nature of the area. My educated guess is that it will be 10 years down and another 10 years to work back out of the collapse. With the huge amount of excess inventory, home prices will probably plunge below fundamentals 5 years out. So that nice remodeled 4/2 in the historic district will be selling for 100 times rent or $150k.
I saw they raised their rates and their annual passes went way up too. But I noticed that they had extremely low deals on their hotels starting July 31st. August if usually vacation month for Northerners, so I thought maybe attendance was down. Anyone know?
Talking about Disney in my last post.
“Overgrown properties, he says, ‘obviously are going to be a concern now and will continue to be a concern. It’s not going away, and it’s going to get worse.’”
Palmetto:
It is starting to look like the front end of Hurricane Housing Bubble has started to hit the Tampa Bay area pretty hard. This is a Category 5 storm and all of us who live in Florida know the back end of the storm is far worse than the front end of the storm!
“‘In a blow to an already weak housing market, Option One Mortgage will no longer provide mortgages to buy Florida condos…”
I thought that I read that a couple of weeks ago. Interesting, even if you are 50% LTV, great income, stated (maybe the first in Florida), conforming, and great credit, you are simply out of luck on that condo.
I guess Option One see a disaster coming - by forgoing even super-safe condo loans, they’re even more pessimistic than most of us on this blog.
Not only that but we should expect other lenders to drawn similar conclusions, and for the policy to spread to other markets overbuilt with condos - which nowadays means everywhere.
Yea - when you take it to the extreme, it would mean that a person with a $100k income needs an additional $20k to buy a condo - maybe for $500k. And he still will not get the loan.
Yes, the condo’s value will dive - but this far…to the point of not even being willing to take a first lien for a 4% LTV.
Now that is a PANIC!!
…“Something is missing from two new companion condo towers in the inner core of Miami’s downtown: cars. The white towers of the Loft 1 and Loft 2 buildings have no garages.”
“Forgoing on-site parking means huge savings in land and construction costs for developers, and affordable, well-finished if compact urban dwellings for buyers.”
“If all five buildings are completed, downtown would have about 1,600 new workforce condos, according to the parking authority. Prices at Loft 1’s 196 units, now open and occupied, ranged from $99,000 to $250,000. At Loft 4, a planned 404-unit tower, sales opened this week, with prices at $139,000 to $399,000.”
“‘Urban housing should not have parking on site, especially workforce housing,’ said Miami real estate analyst Michael Cannon. ‘People in Miami have to be educated that that’s the way it should be.’”….
Another thing that is missing is sensibility. C’mon, no parking? Good ^%&*#@ luck with that. Not the New York, Boston, etc. are different, but those sorts of places can get away withput parking. Miami, I think not.
“Miami, I think not.”
A-men, Pen! Although Miami does have some light rail, it is not a city that lends itself to urban dwelling on a large scale.
I agree. He is nuts not having any parking. The city is also dumb for approving this. I could see maybe possibly slightly reducing the number of parking spaces. But, workforce housing absolutely needs parking. Even though Miami-Dade has a fair transit system, over 90% of workers still commute by car, traveling alone. Not having any parking, severly limits your market and also the mobility of those that live there.
No parking? That has to be a New Urbanist’s wet dream - the “walkable city”. They pitch that heavily, and while a nice concept, it just doesn’t square with auto-centric cities.
I’ll just bet walking is really, really safe there too. I saw the reports on TV that Macy’s wanted to pull out because their workers felt unsafe coming to work.
I have to go down there about two or three times a month for business stuff. In central downtown, during business hours, walking is safe for the most part, as there are a large number of people about. At night and during the weekends it’s a bit like a ghost town and rather scary.
Macy’s is in that area, but it’s probably keeping that store open until 9PM, and I wouldn’t want to be there then. Other than shoplifters, I can’t imagine who would be at that store after 6 or 7 PM.
The main problem for me is that between April and October, I will sweat through my shirt if I walk more than two blocks. And I’m wearing kahkis and short-sleves.
So if I lived at one of those condos, I’d need a shower installed and a walk-in closet for my wardrobe to change into at my workplace.
But since they already don’t have parking spaces, I suppose I could get a further discount on a unit without showers and closets. Oh and who needs a bedroom? I’ll lie on cardboard like the other folks sleeping on the sidewalk in front of the building. And who needs a kitchen? There’s a soup kitchen around the corner, no doubt. Yup, I’ll be living it up in my living room (that is if that’s included). All hbb’rs are welcome, the door is always open… seems like they forgot to include that too.
I stayed at the Mandarin on Brickell a couple of years ago without a car. I was amazed at how many of these buildings around me had no shops or anything. I walked around for at least an hour just trying to find a coffee shop/convenience store.
To live in one of these buildings without any nearby shops or decent public transport (a la NYC/London), forget it. Give me my car!
If you walk around outside for an hour anywhere in this state in August, you are looking at possible heat exhaustion. Try doing it in a suit and tie.
“‘Urban housing should not have parking on site, especially workforce housing,’ said Miami real estate analyst Michael Cannon. ‘People in Miami have to be educated that that’s the way it should be.’”….
Let’s see how easy it is for real estate agents to show properties without cars. He’s saying you’re there to work and you don’t need to venture outside your area for entertainment or anything else.
“These are the best condos around. Oops, sorry, we have to park 2 blocks down the street……these condos don’t have any garages or parking.”
Nice first impression. What an idiot.
Has this guy ever been to Miami?
“However, less exotic creations like ‘no-documentation loans’ for those with high credit ratings and big bank accounts, and even normal real estate loans for investors, are becoming rarer.”
What exactly is “less exotic” than liar loans. I keep trying to come up with a reason why someone who is not breaking the law, in some way, would have a problem documenting their qualifications to take a loan - and I keep coming up blank. I can see ARMs or even Option ARMs for really, really, wealthy people buying a cheap house to flip - but I still cannot see what stops a law-abiding person from documenting their qualifications.
Can anyone help me here?
“Can anyone help me here?”
I’m drawing a blank, too.
liar loan on one loan to someone with 700 FICO is “less exotic” than multiple liar loans for eight “primary residences” to someone with a 500 FICO
Thanks, I’m glad we’re back to high-quality underwriting (just kidding).
“Option One Mortgage will no longer provide mortgages to buy Florida condos, a decision industry watchers warn other lenders could copy.”
If this is copied by other lenders, IMHO predict that WCI and other builders will be BK within a year
Florida is
burntflaming TOAST!strikeoff.“Warned Alex Barron, an analyst with Agency Trading Group: ‘It’s got a pretty broad implication.’ If other lenders follow, ‘you’re going to find a lot of very desperate buyers’ who won’t be able to close even if they wanted to.’”
Desperate buyers?! LMAO. It’s the sellers who will be the desperate ones, you idiot! Imagine finding you have NO MARKET for your “asset.” Are those condos high enough to jump off of?
How do you turn this strike-through OFF?
maybe like this.
or perhaps like this
last try cuz I think I see how.
“‘I think the worst thing you want to do in this market is be a condo seller,’ said Jim Gillis, broker in Miami. ‘It’s almost like a disease that is going to be very difficult to get rid of.’”
disease…..hmmm……..not sure whether or not you folks remember one of my past posts, but I had mentioned that back in the late 80s, early 90s, I had a cousin in FLA, that said, property in Florida was like Herpes, ’cause you can’t get rid of either one.
“In a blow to an already weak housing market, Option One Mortgage will no longer provide mortgages to buy Florida condos, a decision industry watchers warn other lenders could copy”
This first appeared last weekend and now it looks like the dots are starting to get connected - and I will argue it bodes very badly for not only Miami’s condo market - but the national condo market. As bad as the SFH scene might get the condo market will get much worse.
As a condo owner I expect nothing less than a white knuckle ride all the way down. The overbuilding of condos throughout America cannot be overemphasized. If lenders begin to red line condos - look out. The only recourse will be to extract every bit of use value possible in the meantime and prepare for worst.
Add to that a doubling of you condo/hoa fees from all the other “ownahz” who sent in their “jingle mail”
———————
As a condo owner I expect nothing less than a white knuckle ride all the way down
Oh, I am very concerned about the fortunes of the other occupants in my building. To mitigate this I bought into an older established building with lots of seniors and civil service types. That should buy me some time.
Worst off will be the new construction and newly converted “kondoze”. There, younger buyers with no equity are the rule. In the small buildings the scene will be very ugly as one BK will take the entire building down.
Besides the precarious poistion I consigned myself to - I also expect entire neighborhoods to be devastated by the coming condo crash. That’s why when I bought I did spend more than what I would be prepared to walk away from - not that I want to - and if I had a time machine I would be renting.
This strike through sux, this is a good topic. Any techies out there to help us?
Oh, I am very concerned about the fortunes of the other occupants in my building. To mitigate this I bought into an older established building with lots of seniors and civil service types. That should buy me some time.
The only problem I see is if the seniors start dying off and their heirs can’t sell the condo. Make sure they all get health check up regularly.
I can’t imagine why any company would take a chance on lending for a condo in Florida. All the price pressure is to the downside. Take a chance on losing all your money for a possible 8% return? I think not.
I’ve been telling anyone I know for years to stay away from condos. They’re just like mobile homes….very easy to get into, a major pain to get out of, if you can thanks to all the competition.
I understand all the foreclosure issues, I even understand the credit crisis, but what I don’t understand is, “Who the heck is going to buy all this excess inventory all over the country?”
I predict that after this rollarcoaster ride of turning homeowners into renters that programs are going to appear advertising, “1 year out of foreclosure, we can get you a loan today, low down, easy terms..blah..blah…
I mean SOMEONE has to buy these homes?? Otherwise when will all this end?????
strike-through off.
wow…what an interesting week. Countrywide facing the possibility of bankrupcy, people lining up to withdraw money form countrywide banks in CA. I did not see this coming.
About not giving mortgages to “all condo” buyers in Florida, that is a bit harsh. Moves like this by other banks will kill the condo market a lot faster. Then only vulture funds will be able to buy condos…normal people who need to rely on loans to buy “cheap” condos will not be able to do so. That really sucks for people like me who would like to pick up a great deal on a condo. Even if I have good credit, I will not get a buy a condo.
On a related note, the stock market going down in the past few weeks is going to take away the two main sources of wealth for most people…ie their house and stock portfolio. I make a good living and invest part of my income every month…but when the market goes down and my “paper” value goes down, it affects my normal spending pattern even though I dont use my investment income to pay my bills. For example, I stop by macy’s once a week on my way home from work and pick up items on sale..normally spend about $200 bucks. Now that the market has gone down, I dont stop by macys anymore to pick up items on sale…even though the bucket of money that the “macys funds” comes form is unchanged.
Next year or two should be interesting. This is the first housing downturn that I have experienced as an adult and cant wait to see how things will turn out. I sympathize with the people who are losing their houses, but we are going thru an significant historical event in the housing industry. I am sure there will be tons of whitepapers on this bubble in the coming decades.
Every decade, you can search and find a large scale, greed-based investment scandal and this housing bubble is just that. I remember the S and L debacle (greed again) that left empty apartment buildings from Houston to Phoenix. Wall Street had its excessive greed scandal in the late 1980’s. I remember all the investmant “oracles” and wonderboys who eventually ended up in jail because of their inside trading scams. They didn’t know anymore than the rest of us, they just cheated. Then the dot com run up and bust happened. I said to a co-worker who was gobbling up stocks “this reminds me of the Dutch Tulip bubble of the 1600’s”. He looked at me like I was crazy. And now the housing greed scandal. People are just greedy and I wonder what the next vehicle will be.
“I wonder what the next vehicle will be. ”
Whatever it ends up being, I will fade it.
Scooters.
The next vehicle? My nomination is the green/sustainable energy business. It will be a hucksters’ and scammers’ field day.
I say “carbon credits” or “carbon offsets.”
“‘I think the worst thing you want to do in this market is be a condo seller,’ said Jim Gillis, broker in Miami. ‘It’s almost like a disease that is going to be very difficult to get rid of”
We have a flu in California, soon to be a incurable disease.
Has anyone heard any news on the Florida panhandle?
When we visited in May, there was a condo at our place for sale at $750K that the realtor said had been on the market for nearly 9 months - and that was in May. Zero down loans had already evaporated according to the realtor and there had been no real offers.
I just haven’t heard anything about Destin/Okaloosa Island/Navarre and was curious if anyone knew anything. I can imagine that there is blood in the streets.
Thank you.
Recommend that when you see Pensacola Popper posting, you ask him. He seems to know a lot about that area. We used to have a regular, DestinSM, but I don’t recall seeing him post anytime recently.
Has anyone heard any news on the Florida panhandle?
Your $750K condo will be worth about $325K by next fall.
From today’s Austin Business Journal:
2,000 homes in pipeline
Houston developer targets site near Lago Vista
Austin Business Journal - August 20, 2007 by Kate HarringtonABJ Staff
A Houston developer has snapped up about 900 acres around Lake Travis with the intention of putting Lago Vista on the map for the next wave of Central Texas residential development.
Hines Interests LP, an international real estate firm, now owns 875 acres in Lago Vista between FM 1431 and Lake Travis. The plan is to eventually turn the pristine property into an upscale residential development, says Lago Vista City Manager Bill Angelo.
Just recieved the local (Sarasota) social magazine. The glossy rag that really is a showcase for the local builders. Usually thick w/spreads of mcmansions and smug photos of realty whores. Well this months edition is as thin as I’ve ever seen it. Only a couple of the big builders with one page spreads.
Big time hurt still months away.
House in Forest Hills Queens listed this week at $619,000. A year ago all the row houses on the “Alphabet” streets were $699,000. I bet the owner would take $580,000. That’s a drop of about 18%, and we are no where near the bottom.
And I was told RE never goes down in NY.
all this linear thinking is getting to me!
“And now entering this section of the museum we will visit the extinct species once know as ‘the mortgage broker.”…
Here in Florida they are dropping like flies..especially the offices around my mom..half finished and empty “Blah Blah Mortgage Co” offices around..spoke to one who said they have gone from having 100 lenders to work with down to 15..mostly banks…and the banks are not gives as great a payout as the “out of business” lenders use to..also charging a higher rate…which of course if the buyer went directly to them, they would get a better rate than the mortgage broker…interesting to see the “banks” getting the business again…wonder how many mortgage brokers will be turing in their BMW’s…also heard that 90% of all luxury cars are leased while only 30% of “regular” cars are..that was today on CNN Open House..
“And now entering this section of the museum we will visit the extinct species once know as ‘the mortgage broker.”…
The mortgage broker is going down the same path as the realestate sales person. Back to their former careers in the fast food or retail industries.
Beware! The builders, developers, and real estate people are running for public office. What do you think is their agenda. Know who you are voting for in the coming months.
Current Gallatin Valley MLS stats (Bozeman, MT area):
Category, 8/9/2007, 8/16/2007
SF under 1 acre, 1144, 1136
Condo/Townhouse, 880, 886
SF over 1 acre, 740, 739
Total homes, 2870, 2866
Lots, 3017, 3026
Other land, 1188, 1220
I couldn’t get summary statistics on pending sales, but anecdotally, hunting and pecking, I had a hard time finding ANY pending offers.
Recent Census GV estimates:
Pop: 81k, 3% annual growth rate (2006)
35k housing units (2005), 24% multifamily (2000)
62% homeownership rate (2000)
So conservatively, 8% of all housing units (including rentals) are currently on the market, probably 10%+ of all the SFH, condos and townhomes in the Gallatin Valley are currently on the market. Or put another way, the Gallatin Valley currenty has a home (SF, condo, or TH) AND lot for sale for every 28 residents (including children, many resident students and a high number of recreational transients). And these statistics do NOT include (1) the typically large number of FSBO’s in the Bozeman area, (2) many builder homes; and (3) the huge number of homes that have been pulled off the market and rented out at a loss “until things pick up.”
Question I increasing put to Bozeman boosters: If everyone wants to live here then why are so many trying to sell?
Median home price has more than doubled from 2000 (10%+ annual appreciation).
Can you say Overpriced and Overbuilt! Bozeman is going to crash and burn over the next 5 years.
How the heck did this end up on Florida thread. If possible Ben, can you move or delete this? Thought I post this to the “local” thread…