Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Lower median prices? “Median real estate prices in Nevada County dropped more than 9 percent to $425,000 in July compared to a year earlier, a real-estate tracking company confirmed today. ‘Things just aren’t worth as much as they used to be,’ said Realtor Teresa Dietrich-Treco.”
“Year-to-year median prices for July also declined in the counties of Placer (8.5 percent), Sacramento (10 percent) and Yuba (nearly 14 percent), DataQuick reported.”
“Housing prices in Monterey County stayed healthy in the swanky areas while some mid-range housing areas saw a dip in price, according to figures for July 2007 from the Monterey County Association of Realtors.”
“The median sales price in south Salinas dipped to $540,000, compared with $609,000 a year ago; the median price in north Salinas fell to $520,000 from a median of $585,000 a year ago. The median sale price in South County fell to $385,000 from $517,000 a year ago.”
Lender activity? “Washington Mutual has put its downtown Stockton building up for sale. The 247,000-square-foot building has no price tag. The company is asking anyone interested in purchasing the building to make an offer.”
“The Seattle-based company said the move to try to sell the property isn’t a reflection of the decline in the residential real-estate market, or on downtown Stockton. ‘We’re going to have a lot of vacancy,’ said broker Mahala Burns. ‘All of a sudden, we’ll have all this square footage available, no real parking and no tenants, so everyone is nervous and on edge at the moment.’”
Or foreclosures? “A lot of homeowners are feeling the squeeze. So far this year, there have been more than 5,000 foreclosures in the Chicago area. A two bedroom, $400,000 condo in downtown Chicago is just one of nearly 200 foreclosed properties owned by banks that the company will sell in a live auction.”
“There’s another condo in Hyde Park for $150,000 and a single family, five-bedroom home in Lincoln Park for $800.000. All are expected to sell for 30 to 40 percent below market value. ‘Banks are not into retail. They want these properties off their books, [so they are] willing to take less than retail to move them,’ said auctioneer Pat Harvill.”
“But keep in mind that the properties are sold ‘as is.’”
New marketing techniques? “The sign spinners of a national advertising company can be found nearly every weekend along the streets of Ahwatukee Foothills, twirling their 6-foot signs in the air to promote new housing subdivisions.”
“‘Basically when you start working for us, you don’t look at it as a job – it is a sport,’ said Phoenix General Manager Bryan Sanchez. ‘Everybody is looking at you because you are the center of attention.’”
Rising inventory? “Home sales and building are down in metropolitan Phoenix, but there are other indicators to track where the housing market is headed. Home listings in the Valley climbed to almost 55,000 during the past few weeks. That’s a new high.”
“About 85 percent of the Valley homes foreclosed on in July went back to the lender, according to the Information Market. That means fewer investors bidding on foreclosure properties on the courthouse steps. In many cases, more is owed on the home than what it’s worth now.”
“New-home prices in metro Phoenix fell an average of 6 percent this year, according to Phoenix-based Belfiore Real Estate Consulting. The firm says new-home prices have dropped 21 percent in the past 18 months.”
“Recently, West Valley cities saw the biggest decline in new-home prices. Avondale’s cost for a new house fell 11.9 percent, and in north Buckeye, prices are down 9 percent.”
Signs of the credit crunch? “In Laguna Niguel, Bill Ashmore, the Impac Mortgage president, remarked on how the credit problems stemming from sub-prime loans had filtered down to a local bank branch.”
“‘It started out with this global credit crunch we’ve been reading about,’ he said as another Countrywide depositor left the bank’s office. ‘It’s now gotten down to affecting people like him and me who are closing our accounts.’”
“The other depositor shook his head as he climbed into his car. ‘It’s all over,’ he said, and drove away.”
‘It’s all over,’ he said, and drove away.”
…off a cliff.
GEORGE: We made it! Look . . . (holds up two bills)
. . . look, we’re still in business! We’ve still got two bucks left!
Uncle Billy is taking a drink out of his bottle.
LMAO!
Actually, it’s more like the SNL parody where Uncle Billy remembers that Potter took the money. And everyone goes over to Potter’s place and kicks the cr@p out of him.
My apologies in advance for hogging a top spot, but I just wanted to report that my mother finally sold her house. She lived in Paso Robles (Central Coast, CA), was there since 1999. She bought the house for under 150K then and closed about a week ago for a cash sale of 285K. The house has been on the market since January 2006 mostly FSBO. She got a real esate agent about 4 months ago who finally set her straight on the housing market (wouldn’t listen to her daughter “Cassandra”) and priced her house to sell. One of the best in the subdivision and it completely screwed the comps. As we were finishing up packing, I heard the new owner say to his daughter who is to be occupying the house, that as soon as she got in to her “own” place, he was going to flip the house. I smiled at him and thought: “Congratulations, you just caught a falling knife.”
I also got this email from another Paso Robles realtor/real estate agent. I wish there was a way to post the graphs he included, they were very interesting:
08/19/07
Hello Everyone,
I wish I had better news to share with you concerning the current market condition for homes here in Northern San Luis Obispo County . We were experiencing a slow but measurable improvement in the market from the darkest day (January 8, 2007) through to the end of May. I say this because:
The number of “available homes” changing status to “in escrow” was improving,
the ratio of “in escrow” homes was slightly out-pacing the increase in the “available homes” inventory, and
the median price of the “in escrow” homes was climbing at a pretty good pace.
Today, it it all has changed. The market is in clear and undeniable decline. My reasoning for this position is based on these factors:
The number of homes being reported “in escrow” has been in decline over the last 60 to 75 days,
The “in escrow” ratio relative to the “available” homes inventory is falling even as more homes go off market unsold, and
The median price of the “in escrow” homes has fallen over the last 75 days or so.
The normal annual seasonality of home sales combined with the increase in the cost of money, tightening of lending practices, increase in notice of default and foreclosure properties and the overall lack of consumer confidence are all applying downward pressure on home values. I certainly don’t see any opportunity for a change in direction over the short term (through spring of 2008) and if there is no significant change in the market prior to the end of the second quarter of 2008 - we’re in line for another cold fall and winter into 2009.
“In Carmel, the median increased from $1.5 million to $2.2 million in July 2007.”
The market in Carmel is strong but not that strong. If anyone needs evidence of how wacky annual yr/yr median prices can be this is it.
huh?
That implies that basically nothing under $1.3M is selling. No condos… no townhomes. No small homes left over from a past era.
In other words, the market it toast.
Got popcorn?
Neil
You can’t really get anything in Carmel proper for under a million, and those are mostly older cottages. There are some (slightly) cheaper places out in Carmel Valley.
What was the time span and how many houses sold? Without more information, it’s impossible to derive any meaning from that number.
Exactly. One house sold for $2.2 million???
Carmel is primarily SFR’s. Very few condos/townhomes. MLS currently shows 168 SFR and 10 CIS (condos/townhomes) listings active.
From MCAR July 2007, 16 SFR’s sold Median Price $1,840,000 / Average Price $2,239,007. 2 CIS sales Median / Average Price $752,500.
From MCAR July 2006, 11 SFR’s sold Median Price $1,475,000 / Average Price $1,585,545. 1 CIS sales Median / Average Price $765,000.
So the story got the July 2007 “average” and “median” prices switched. The story should have read: “Median SFR price increased from $1,475,000 in July 2006 to $1,840,000 in July 2007.”
BTW, SFR inventory decreased from 205 in July 2006 to 172 in July 2007.
That’s why we need the services (local shill MLS) to post price per sq. ft. . Median price points are meaningless to follow the markets recession accurately.
Carmel is the the highest-quality place to live in that I am aware of, Bainbridge Island near Seattle being the next, I would guess, then Presidio Heights in SF.
Did you mean “Mercer Island” Seattle ??
Have any of you sailed past Bill Gates’ house on Mercer Island? The first time I saw it I was not impressed that that was the house of the richest man in the world. My idea was that Bill should have bought all of Mercer Island, shut all the freeway exits, razed all the houses, and built a palace.
Bill lives on the eastside, not on Mercer Island. Still on the lake, but closer to work.
Do me a favor. The next time you sail past the grotesque monstrosity that Bill Gates built, please moon him. Tell him it’s from Sammy.
“..Countrywide said it planned to fund more mortgages through Countrywide Bank and have the bank invest in certain loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won’t buy, such as “jumbo” mortgages, which in California are defined as those over $417,000….”
Wanna bet on that???
At a branch near Countrywide’s corporate headquarters in Calabasas on Thursday, a flood of spooked customers seeking to withdraw their certificates of deposit and money-market accounts overwhelmed the small staff. The Countrywide employees were forced to resort to taking down names and asking people to wait it out or come back later.”
You can not lend money you do not have…..prophetic words from the other depositor, who shook his head as he climbed into his car….. “It’s all over,” he said, and drove away.
Countrywide is (was?) an awesome company. Well run, good service, seemingly efficient. However, they are a victim of competing “successfully” with a market full of other goof ball lenders. It is like have a fast defense in football: You can get nailed on an end reverse play, because you over pursue on the initial read!
Countrywide (and IndyMac) bought ALL the Alt-A loans… even those that were made by other lenders were bought by Countrywide to be securitized. That’s why CW has this unending list of REO– it’s not loans they own, it’s loans they are servicing for investors in MBS. And now that they have this liquidity crisis, someone’s going to believe that they are building a portfolio Jumbo investment?! hahahah!
They are neck-deep in their own crap. The only thing keeping them up is a noose the Fed is holding… we’ll see what happens with that.
Well run, good service and awesome are not words I’d use to describe Countrywide. My daughter spent hours and hours on the phone trying to get them to properly credit her account. Countrywide isn’t a victim of anything except their own greed.
“Countrywide is (was?) an awesome company. Well run, good service, seemingly efficient. However, they are a victim of competing “successfully” with a market full of other goof ball lenders. It is like have a fast defense in football: You can get nailed on an end reverse play, because you over pursue on the initial read!”
So was Pets.com and nearly 1000 more companies hit by the dot-com era. Where are they now?
Someone in Carmel this past week paid 2.3 mil for Steve Mcqueen’s Ferrari….
It would be nice if Jim Cramer blew up on the NAR.
Cramer “The NAR has no idea how bad it is out there. No idea! They know nothing! Lawrence Yun and his rosy outlooks knows nothing. David Liareah and Lawrence Yun know nothing! These construction workers, relators, and mortgage brokers are losing their jobs. I have been at this for 25 years and it is as bad as I have ever seen. Real Estate companies are going out of business and the NAR acts as if everything is ok. They know NOTHING!”
Cramer does not care about those people, they aren’t his people, just like he does not care about auto workers in Detroit or steel workers in Pittsburgh. His people work on Wall Street.
I watched a person from CNBC yesterday that is an expert on the NYC real estate market. She said the 3M, 5M, 12M coops, and condos are still selling easily and the people buying them are almost all wall streeters. She said they put about 40% down on average. Then she said we’ll see what happens when bonus times roll around. Let’s not all forget the dot.com millionaires who became street people overnight. At least they’re living in the right city if they have to live on the streets.
Are there any steel workers left in Pittsburgh?
Probably not in the city itself but a good number in the region:
“Steel production slips
Pittsburgh Business Times - July 24, 2007
Domestic steelmakers saw their weekly output fall from the previous seven days, according to data released Tuesday by an industry group.
Production among domestic steelmakers was about 2.11 million net tons for the week ended July 21, down from 2.12 million net tons produced for the week ending July 14, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
In the Pittsburgh/Youngstown, Ohio, district, steel companies produced 210,000 net tons for the week ended July 21, up from 208,000 net tons the previous week.
AISI is a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit association of North American companies involved in the iron and steel industry.
The organization’s data is based on reports from companies representing about 75 percent of the domestic industry’s raw steel capacity. “
The Homestead Works are gone, the Hazleton Works are gone, I just drove my son around Pittsburgh and the mills I grew up with are gone. There may be some upstream on the Mon, but I did not see any. In place of the Homestead Works is a mega shopping zone. Replaced all of those decent paying jobs with minimum wage retail. Sad.
Well said. Cramer is a shill and Border Collie for the cigar-chomping plutocrats on Wall Street. While he’s done an admirable job in recent years of leading the sheep to the slaughter, you can tell his handlers are starting to panic and put enormous pressure on him to facilitate the dumping of their assets onto the cretins before the bottom drops out.
That’s good Tom…right back at ya…CramA$$
call me when its Armagedoning real good, again.
perhaps, Monday, maybe tuesday night.
I almost purchased a Sacramento California house in December 2005. Luckily, I stumble across Ben’s blog (and Sacramento Land(ing) + SacRealStats) just in time to realize the bubble correction was going to be so much worse than I knew. I changed my strategy and rented a house from a flipper a year ago, insisting on a one year lease, plus a one year extension option.
We just received a letter addressed to the owner from GMAC’s foreclosure division last week. It looked like an NOD, so I confirmed it on Foreclosures.com: our rented house is now in default. The owner paid $738,000 in February 2006. There are 8 foreclosed houses on the same street already. This same model is listed at $463,000 and $476,000 with Countrywide and Deutsche Bank. Thirty percent plus price drops from the peak.
I guess we will take the next four months rent free and see what the foreclosure asking prices will be in the depths of winter. In the mean time, no rental payments!? $8,000 (less our $1800 deposit), means we can bank another $6,200 into our down payment fund. If the landlord issues me a 3 day pay or quit, I will slap a lawsuit on his @$$ so fast his head will spin. I have 12 months left on my lease extension, which he recieved 3 weeks ago, along with the rent check, which he cashed!
There are opportunities everywhere! Thank you Ben, for saving me $300,000 plus, simply for the price of moving twice, but only buying once!
thanks ben me to i saved a lot.
Lender likely not required to honor the lease IMO….
The lenders are nuts if they evict renters in foreclosed houses. They’re not going to be able to sell them quickly, so they’ll need that rental income to prop up their balance sheets.
But then, lenders have not been acting very rational recently…
The lender is absolutely required to honor the lease contract. In fact, the above tenant may find himself held to the second-year renewal he just returned to the landlord even if he doesn’t wish to remain a tenant. The contract he signed will be sold with the property at foreclosure, if it comes to that.
Forgive my ignorance, but how is it that you are taking the next four months rent-free? If you refuse to pay, you may force the “owner” into foreclosure. Perhaps he’s just having a temporary cash-flow problem and will be able to reverse the process. And, what kind of law-suit are you planning to file if he attempts eviction for non-payment? It seems to me that you would be violating the terms of your rental agreement and he would completely entitled to pursue your eviction regardless of his loan repayment status. What you are planning is patently unethical and illegal. If I were you, I would proceed carefully lest you find yourself hauled into court.
Not to mention, your agreement is with the homeowner, not the bank. Until the foreclosure process completes, you are still bound to the terms of your rental contract.
Sorry, but I think you are absolutely in the wrong here. Your anger and frustration is understandable, but your lack of ethics is very disturbing.
I have been paying rent for the last 14 months and the property owner has not paid the mortgage for at least 6 months…yet it is MY lack of ethics you find disturbing? That makes no sense to me.
If the property owner wants to pay the mortgage, I am happy to pay rent. Until he proves to me the mortgage is current, I will not be fronting him any more money.
The lender has no obligation to honor the lease, since the mortgage preceeded the lease, is subordinated to the mortgage. So I will just withhold my rent and deal with having to move in 4 months. The property owner keeps $12,000 of my money (last 6 months of rent), plus the deposit, instead of making the loan payments. I believe it is ethical and sound business practice for me to not give this speculator any more of my money. The lender is the one getting stiifed, but not by me.
Jingle, what are the scenarios if you do not pay rent?
The lender has an ‘assignment of rent’ in the loan docs. You should contact the lender and see if they are going to inforce it. Then you send the rent to the lender. If they are smart they will let you pay them until the trustee’s sale. Seller gets to write off the loss, if he’s upside down, since it’s ‘income property’. Is, by chance, your land lord named ‘Casey’ ?? huh huh??
Have to say, Jingle, that although I (sort of) agree with your position on ethical grounds, that doesn’t excuse you from making the payments you agreed to with your lease. You are obligated, both legally and morally, to honor that agreement. What happens between the landlord and the mortgage company is unfortunately not your business, except in how it affects your rental. Is the landlord wrong not to inform you of the problem? Yes. Is it wrong for the landlord to pocket the rent money? Yes. Is it your job to enforce payment to the mortgage company? No. A solution might be to open some sort of escrow account or something, but in my opinion you have to pay the rent; after all, you are living in the house.
Wow, there are some very interesting comments here. It does not seem so cut and dry to many people.
Implosion, if I do not pay the rent, the landlord must serve me with a three day notice to pay or quit. I can pay at that point and keep renting. However, I will also have my attorney contact the landlord to outline the damages if he does not intend to honor the lease. Certainly, by serving a 3-day pay or quit, the landlord is providing affirmation of his ibligation to make good on the lease.
Unless you have omitted pertinent information, the borrower is simply in default, and the lender does not yet own the house. Until that time, you are still obligated to pay rent; otherwise, your landlord is within his rights to evict you and seize your deposit (if so stipulated in your lease). It is up to the lender to collect from your landlord. As a tenant, it is simply not your battle to fight.
When a property is sold, even as a foreclosure, the buyer receives the property plus any contracts that go with it. If you have held up your end of the bargain by paying your rent on time and in full, the new owner is obligated to fulfill the terms of the lease. And, in your case, I suspect the bank would rather have a positive revenue stream on the property than leave it empty. After all, you stated that there are eight foreclosures on your street, so obviously houses are not selling.
You are unequivocally in the wrong here, and if you don’t believe me, run it by a local attorney who can clarify the situation for you. Then, take your time and think through your options carefully before you make your next move; otherwise, you may find yourself in court, too.
Is it really worth it to take that risk because you’re angry and feeling righteous? Your landlords failure to fulfill the terms of his contract with the lender does not automatically give you the right to renege on your contract. If you remain in the house without paying, you are committing theft. It’s a simple as that.
What do you mean, it doesn’t seem so cut-and-dry to most people? I think nearly all of us agree that you should continue paying rent.
Steve wrote…”that doesn’t excuse you from making the payments you agreed to with your lease. You are obligated, both legally and morally, to honor that agreement.”
ajas wrote…”man there’s no way I would do that without talking to an attorney”
aNYCdj wrote…”IF YOU DON’T PAY RENT YOU VIOLATE THE LEASE, and a judge will evict you”
roundsparrow wrote…”Your landlord said you didn’t have to pay?”
adopt-a-landlord wrote…”If I were you, I’d continue to pay the rent”
None of us support you in ceasing to pay your rent completely. You’re playing with fire if you don’t ante up, either to the landlord, an escrow account, or the lender. Choose one and proceed with caution.
“When a property is sold, even as a foreclosure, the buyer receives the property plus any contracts that go with it.”
I would double check that
Red, I agree with your ethical position, however I believe you are mistaken about the lender honoring a lease. A lease, just like a second, is subordinate to the first. If the holder of the first takes back the property at auction, all subordinate positions are wiped out and the lender will evict the tenent regardless of payment history. To clarify, this is true in California, I actually asked our in house attorney about this a month ago.
Other than that, I learned a long time ago to never argue with a redhead!
Suzanne’s Ex,
Red’s very first statement was “Forgive my ignorance….”. Red, we forgive you. You make a lot of interesting claims and assumptions about which you clearly no nothing. The first action of all foreclosing lenders is to evict the tenants, once they control the property. All foreclosing lenders evict the tenants. All of them. Is that clear enough. Your statement “The lender is absolutely required to honor the lease contract…” is 100% false. A buyer has to honor a lease, but not the lender. I have been in industry a long time and have multiple rental properties.
Furthermore, your statement “…Your anger and frustration is understandable…” is misguided. I am neither angry or frustrated. I avoided purchasing a $735,000 home in mid 2006 which is now selling in the mid $400,000’s. In the ensuing 14 months, I also saved $3500/mon by renting, so add another $50,000 to the balance sheet! (Thank you Ben.) I am happy, proud, and excited. I look forward to having another $50,000 in my downpayment coffers when I go house shopping at the market bottom.
I will say that you have encouraged me to think this all thru a little more. I will escrow the rent payment at my attorney’s office. In the unlikely event the landlord issues me a 3-day pay or quit, I will have my attorney write a letter confirming the landlord will honor the full lease terms. If the landlord affirms the lease terms, he gets the check. Otherwise, we are withholding rent to offset the lease deposit and moving costs.
Rents are stagnant and dropping in Sacramento because there are so many houses on the market. We may rent a slightly smaller house for another year and save another $7,000/year on rent.
It is so awesome to be a renter in this market.
If people here can find issues to argue about in this situation, then just imagine what this is going to be like nationwide with similar situations involving many people who are less sophisticated and informed. Even more than that, this is going to be a global bubble with people all over Europe wondering what to do about their imploded American landlords and vice versa. Lawyers will feed well on all this for at least a decade.
Jingle,
You’re correct, the lease agreement is secondary and will be tossed asap by the lender. Holding the rent moneies in escrow until the LL signs off on the agreement is a savvy move. I would get two opinions but a consult is cheap and a nice CYA.
The LL was getting ready to screw Jingle and he caught whiff of it. I say follow the legal process and you’ll still come out ahead.
I guess we will take the next four months rent free and see what the foreclosure asking prices will be in the depths of winter. In the mean time, no rental payments!?
Your landlord said you didn’t have to pay?
Jingle,
I sold in Lodi and have been renting for the last 2 1/2 years. Fortunately, there’s no NOD on our rental yet.
I’m a little worried about your withholding of rent being turn into an excuse by your landlord for not making payments. If I were you, I’d continue to pay the rent, and contact his mortgage company to let them know you have been renting the subject property. I’ll bet the farm, your landlord did not take a mortgage for an investment property. This is mortgage fraud. Next, maybe the mortgage company would agree to honor your lease and lease extension. It makes much more sense to collect rent on the property and have it maintained, than to let it sit empty for a year or more until they finally unload it. Maybe, with the serious glut of foreclosures in Sacramento, the mortgage company might find your proposition be a novel concept!
haha, why did the NOD go to the property? ahem. Maybe it was listed on the note as owner-occupied? You can definitely screw your LL I’m sure he broke about 10 different laws and is defaulting on 10 different properties, but not paying rent?… man there’s no way I would do that without talking to an attorney. At the very least you’d have to fund some sort of escrow account. TANSTAAFMR and everything (Month’s Rent).
Yes, I will fund an escrow account at my attorney’s office. The money will be there. In likelihood, I will just start submitting lowball offers on one of the 8 lender owned properties on the same street. Or perhaps any of the 20 within a 2 block radius. I just found this neat site called http://www.foreclosureradar.com/ . You may put in your address and see the closest 20 foreclosures. The 20 they show are within 2 blocks. Amazingly , only 12 are REO. The others are NOT and NOD, though my home does not even show up yet, along with 4 other NODs that were listed on Foreclosures.com in the last 3 days. Definintely a bubblicious area, with many F’s Borrowers and F’d Lenders.
You can probably bust the lease and move. I don’t see how the landlord can hold you to a lease when you have the threat of foreclosure and eviction hanging over your head. I would bet the owner wouldn’t even take you to court. Double check that also though.
also, might as well contact the lender. They might be interested to know that their borrower committed fraud, and when they foreclose they might offer keys for cash. Unless it stipulates in the lease that you don’t have to pay during the foreclosure process, you’ll be in trouble. A real estate attorney is your only real option, so you can find out the soonest possible moment to stop paying.
btw, what I meant to say originally… Congratulations on not losing $270k in 2 years!! Holy crap, that’s so much money for a normal person to lose on one single, non-diversified, speculative investment!
Scary, really.
JINGLE IF YOU DON’T PAY RENT YOU VIOLATE THE LEASE, and a judge will evict you….
You NEVER want to piss off a judge…..instead you could put the rent money in escrow with the court and then let a judge decide who gets it the landlord or the bank.
YOU HAVE NO RIGHT AS A TENANT TO MAKE THESE DECISIONS….
As a paralegal i tell everyone to honor the lease, what you want is for the landlord to screwup… then a judge will side with you when it comes to living there rent free to use up your deposit and help pay for moving expenses.
You could sue the LL in civil court and get a judgment…. but if he files for BK, you wind up with nuttin
In California, as a paralegal, you are not allowed to give legal advice. Is it different in NY?
A nice, well-maintained home just came online in one of my target neighborhoods for about $200k… about $40k more than I would pay, but this is a home that would have listed for about $300k a year ago so I am feeling good about my buy parameters. The house is about $30k below comps/competition and I expect it to go quickly. Smart seller.
Pinellas County, Florida
Make an offer of 160k. They just might take it.
yea, what do you have to lose? Oh, they’ll complain with the offer. But if you like the home and feel its worth $160k, go for it.
Just be ok with the fact it might drop a little further due to the calamity of Florida. But I’m weird… I believe the “showcase” property premium will go away and thus you’ll be ok in the future as it returns.
Besides, you’ve already “saved” $140k.
Got popcorn?
Neil
was a renter in LA. moved east in fall ‘05 and my rental was sold for $2625.0. buyer put another $100K in at least. house was listed in May ‘07 at $2900.0. Dropped in June to $2800 and then, 10 days later to $2700. I offered all cash, $2000. Her broker called me a “vile, leacherous human who had just ruined her day.” Would ruin the owner’s as well. She said I would NEVER get a chance to buy that house. Priced then dropped to $2625. Yesterday it sank to $2495. Take out 5% commission and the owner is upside down $380,000 at the new asking price. I figure if I wait long enough, my new offer of $1.8 might get accepted!
So what are some of the good areas in Pinellas?
I would just like to add to the folks who come here in the search for answers in the house hunting game, that not only does the house have to match your buying parameters, its also a really good idea for the seller to match your parameters as well. Think about it.
I made a decision to buy from someone who was ready to not own a house, not a FB or FC. I also wanted the owner and their renter to be living in the house. I needed a really big house, as I care for my mother-in-law. I also have two girls in high school. I spent over a year in research of the house. I also targeted only houses that had been on the market for 60 days. I also only made single offers to agents at ridiculous prices. So, as the market continues to shrink, the sellers who dont have to sell will pull them off the market, and then you may approach those owners directly for FSBO. I ended up buying a house off the market, but I new matched my seller criteria. So, let the realtors do the work for you and cut them out of the deal after a set time (typically 90 days after house goes de-listed), and make your move.
You can achieve some of the back-dated listings in you current search parameters, and move forward based on dates of de-listings. Its work, I must have looked at over 60 houses in the course of a year, and only a handful met the criteria, but it has paid off. Not that a house is a great investment, but as a place to live and relativey (11 minute commute door to desk) close to work, and enjoy on the weekends with the fam. it has paid much more than money could ever buy.
Great advice, vozworth!
I’m attempting to do something similar.
This is the ONLY real reason to slightly “overpay” for a home, 11 minute commute this means you can come in early stay late make lots of OT, there is nothing worse then 3 hours a day getting to and from a job. And if its done right mostly by downsizing your “STUFF” you can live with one less bedroom or family room or one less bathroom, and be 15 minutes from work. And it work cost anymore (and sometimes less) then what you are paying today.
========================
but as a place to live and relativey (11 minute commute door to desk)
What is it like on the ground in St. Pete/Pinellas? On the internet, it still seems like wish prices. Are you starting to see some real reductions? Where are your targets?
Thanks
Spinner aerobics…
Now give me, 1,000 more spins, now 999 more, now 998 more
Feel the burn!
“‘Basically when you start working for us, you don’t look at it as a job – it is a sport,’ said Phoenix General Manager Bryan Sanchez. ‘Everybody is looking at you because you are the center of attention.’”
–
Tehachapi, CA
Listing prices on many homes are down 20-40% from the peak. However, there are homes that are on the market for 12-30 months and their listing prices are down 0-15% only. We have 15-18 months of supply on the market. 40-50% of listings above $300K were built 2005-07. At one point 3,000 permits were issued during a 12-month period, enough to satisfy 6-10 years of demand. The commercial (mostly all forms of shopping) is strong because it lags. Wal-Mart, approved, is yet to be built. I think that over the past 4 years 30-50% of the shopping area has been added or already in the process.
Jas
Here’s a wikipedia article on Great Depression and Bernake’s stand on its causes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_depression#Debt
I treat it as a manual on what Fed’s next steps will be.
“…American populace lost faith in the banking system and began hoarding more cash, a factor very much beyond the control of the Central Bank.”
Somehow…I think this is the key to the current era…the “populace” has lost it’s ability to hoard…”CASH”
My view is that this “Sit-U-ation”…was created by design…you have to have use your “tin-foil-hat” to assign the creatures of blame & benefit.
“My view is that this “Sit-U-ation”…was created by design…you have to have use your “tin-foil-hat” to assign the creatures of blame & benefit.”
A few years ago I remember reading about the vast wealth held by the middle-class, which was going to be inherited by their children. I remember thinking that Wall Street would rather steal it, and I wondered how they would accomplish it. Well, two bubbles later I now know how it works.
lots of drill down, if you’ve got the time or inclination, there’s some really interesting stuff:
ie:
Quantitative Inflation Objective. “The public can no longer safely assume that the CB’s prefers low vs high inflation”
Explicit Inflation Targeting, Optimizing Long Run Inflation.
Basically, no more meet in the dark, tell your buddies the news of the behind closed doors announcment in the morning.
The transparancy of the Fed at this point could be termed as grey at best. How grey?
Charcoal.
Announcemnets have to carry weight. When you think you are at near term price stability, you are probably absolutely wrong. I think we may start to see more unconventional methods carried out by the Fed.
Here is San Francisco, the situation is detiorating rapidly. The main reason is that jumbo loans are now on 7.4% and banks require 20 % down payement. Fine, but the problem is that not a lot of people have 200K in cash to buy PoS and 300K to buy something you can live in. Saving was not cool.
A 20% downpayment is generally made by someone who has just sold a home. If resales aren’t happening, 20% down isn’t either. The housing market is stuck.
Exactly. That’s why ALL areas will be hit, IMHO, though some will fall harder than others.
“Patriotism is the last refuge for a scoundrel”
Samuel Johnson
http://www.centexhomes.com/central-valley/D986Promo5.asp?divisionID=986
I like them giving the docs a 3% break along with the others.
Total psych 101 move
You are homebuyer pfc jones or mrs. smith the 2nd grade teacher, but through the wonder of advertising minds… you are suddenly thrust into the same leagues as a brain doctor~
Buy that home, do your patriotic duty!
Pathetically bogus, but I’d imagine anyone who sat in a classroom, or rode in an amblance, or went for a check-up etc. will get the 3% if they just ask. All the same, there will be more of this coming down the pike as the slide gets more and more desparate and emotional.
–
The new bubble-era values — deception, fraud, and manipulation — have been fully embraced by our Hopebuilders. Wall Street and tech companies were way ahead, but every business has to wait it turn to apply the values.
Jas
“Hopebuilders”
Good one, Jas.
Always better to be a seller of hope rather than a buyer.
So true and profound!!
Gave me the dry heaves. As the valleygirls used to say: Gag me with a spoon!
“‘Basically when you start working for us, you don’t look at it as a job – it is a sport,’ said Phoenix General Manager Bryan Sanchez. ‘Everybody is looking at you because you are the center of attention.’”
current score:
Tautology 1
Sanchez 0
MOre…
August 18, 2007
Tehachapi, CA
Listing prices on many homes are down 20-40% from the peak. However, there are homes that are on the market for 12-30 months and their listing prices are down 0-15% only. We have 15-18 months of supply on the market. 40-50% of listings above $300K were built 2005-07. At one point 3,000 permits were issued during a 12-month period, enough to satisfy 6-10 years of demand. The commercial (mostly all forms of shopping) is strong because it lags. Wal-Mart, approved, is yet to be built. I think that over the past 4 years 30-50% of the shopping area has been added or already in the process.
The building boom of 2003-2008, including commercial, would go bust sometime during 2008H2-2009H1. I don’t know how many people were employed, directly and indirectly, in all forms of construction, but the employment should fall minimum of 10% and more likely by 20%. That qualifies as a deep recession. The housing prices in early 2009 should be 50% of the current prices because how long could people who built during 2005-07 and not yet sold hold out?
Jas
“The housing prices in early 2009 should be 50% of the current prices because how long could people who built during 2005-07 and not yet sold hold out?”
That is pretty much the point I was trying to make with Bill in Phoenix, on the other thread.
Chip, I think house prices will be 50% of the peak prices in the all the hot markets (such as San Diego, Florida, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles). But I’m not as optimistic as you guys that the price drops will be so fast.
I’m seeing more for rent signs mixed with for sale signs in the Arcadia district of Phoenix, and I expect some of these signs to be taken down in a couple of years, put back up a few months later for a year, taken down, and put back up through 2012.
In either case, I think we are going to be right about the price drop. I can wait for 2012 though.
Over 5 years we’ll still have 95% employment in similar jobs at incomes 2% higher each year than the previous and have a little relief from the outrageusly high PITI payments. If most mortgage payers are overextended, then you and Jas are probably right about 2009. I don’t care either way.
After the 50% drop RE prices should be flat for 5 more years while the far suburbs home prices will drop further (commuting expenses will be too high due to peak oil).
Impac should fire their goofball president. What a quack! He’s supposed to be running a public company (that is in quite a crisis itself actually) and he’s sitting in a bank lobby waiting to cash out his personal CD’s on a weekday afternoon????? plus, why does a ’so called’ finance exective have $500,000 invested in a community bank branch? doesn’t the idiot know how to invest in government bonds or bond funds through a brokerage?
i’m really beginning to think that Orange County, CA might be the flakiest bunch of morons in the U.S., does anyone there have a brain or is it all just a phoney act and they somehow manage to only appear to be wealthy?
Old School: When the shoeshine boy is giving you stock tips
New School: When the mortgage co. president is making his very own personal bank run on a competitor’s bank
Excellent! LOL!
He’s got plenty of time, his own company has shut down and he has fired his employees. Now he is just making sure that the ill gotten profits from his shell mortgage company are safe. I mean after all, he does not want to lose all those fees he made by giving out loans to anyone who could fog a mirror. Below is from another story about the panicked Ashmore. He probably thinks that all financial companies are run as crooked as his was.
“It’s because of the fear of the bankruptcy,” said Ashmore, president of Irvine’s Impac Mortgage Holdings, which escaped bankruptcy itself recently by shutting down virtually all its lending and laying off hundreds of employees.”
I had to reread that paragraph again myself…couldn’t believe what I was reading. 500K in CD’s, for crying’ out loud?? At a competitor even?? Or are they just all in bed together??
Who would want to live in the OC except nuts? Not a nice place.
“How much did you withdraw?” asked the anxious reporter.
“500,000 smackeroos, my dear girl.”
prolly had like 40K in there.. created a media event.. now everyone thinks he’s got money.
Took a moonlight drive around California’s Central Valley last night and saw oh so many barely started stalled 25 pack housing projects that had 6 foot walls around them, kinda moat-ish, without the water, if you will…
Spending $25k to make it look like not such an eyesore
Real estate remains in the horse latitudes, or worse…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o8imhSKXzk
When the steel sea conspires an armor,
And her sullen and aborted currents breed tiny monsters,
true sailing is dead….
Believe I had already reported the sale (not yet closed) of the spec house I have been occupying on and off since last September. I may have also reported that the buyer doesn’t plan to move in right away. I was, however, surprised when he offered me a 12-month lease where each month’s rent is about 1/5 of 1% of his purchase price. Guess what, he “needs” to sell a house in New Hampshire before he can move to Maine. The closing on the Maine house is due August 30th. I wonder if it will occur.
Not exactly local: some will remember that I freaked out July 26th and sold nearly all my foreign bonds. I began acquiring some of them back again before this week’s debacle, but not many. Now I am actively buying Australian govt bonds again.
Do you think the $AU is going to bounce back quickly from the huge hit it just took? I guess if you’re buying bonds you just have to be convinced that it will come back in a year or so… if so, this could be a nice buying opportunity.
AUDJPY=X
Are those bonds denom in USD or ozzie dollars?
Arlington Virginia here. The condo market here sure has gone way down. A friend bought a 560sf studio in a 30+ year old building for $170k last year; at the time that was the lowest priced unit for sale in that building. I told him it’s still not a good time to buy but he said he’s tired of waiting. Today the same size condo sells for over $25k less (15%) drop and a bigger size studio (660 sf) sells for the same price. I refuse to pay that much money for a shitty small box consider it was only worth $43k back in 2001. I am renting at a apartment almost twice the size of his condo for less than his mortgage/condo fees/taxes.
From Chicago’s lake shore, condo sales mixed. A conversion of a rather large and decrepit “4 plus 1″ at 5411 N. Winthrop went BK. It was a $13M BK with the $6.7M on the developer. A block away, at 1155 W. Catalpa three brand new towers are dark at night. Sign says 60% sold, but after the first tower went up sort of fast, the rest of the work has bogged down. Finishing work is going very slowly - including the exterior paint job of purple, maize, and dark red. Overall prices remain sticky. A friend is trying to sell his studio condo for $135k since July 4. A couple of showings but no offers - told him to lower to $120k (last comp $122k) two weeks ago - he will stay at $135k til Labor Day. Other conversions in the area look completely bogged down - no signs of sales - window dressings, moving vans, etc. It’s gonna be a long, cold winter.
last time i was in the Edgewater area seemed the Loyola Campus was going gangbusters with new building…same with downtown Evanston.
A number of those condo canyon buildings had repair work done due to Chicago ordinances enacted after buildings started dropping chuncks of external brickwork on pedestrians. Remember paying those wonderful special assessments to cover those costs.
Could never live in a condo again. The Illionois Condominium Property Act is so scewed to the benefit of the owner’s association relative to the owners. Ever have to sue a homeowner’s association to see the financials? Watch out for homeowner associations that only pay accountants for compilations and not audits. And watch out for condos with a lot of civil cases on record.
Yeah, it’s going to be quite a show alright. Bigger, established buildings might have the experience to hold together - but new buildings and conversions with lots of newbie owners with little equity and experience will the ones to watch for complete failure.
I used to live in a concrete clad hi-rise by the zoo. It turns out that every 8-10 years or so, they have to go over the entire exterior of the building with jack hammers taking out and replacing any spalled concrete. Sort of like tuckpointing. Except that the vibration from the jackhamers went throughout the entire building - even if they were doing it 30 floors away, it felt like it was just outside the window.
from the famous IE-riverside region:
Doing long drives out to colton, moreno valley,Corona,redlands,ect. See lots and lots of virtually empty malls and shopping centers. May be its the scorching 100%+ heat of august that is keeping folks from going out, but maybe the IE may be experencing the effects of dissapearance of MEW due to the obvious drop in housing prices all over the IE. Also, the IE was way overbulit in new homes and malls last several years, and it looks like there is simply a glut of underused/empty commercial/residential properties.
Still see lots of new housing tracts advertised and on display off the 15/91 fwy going toward temecula. One sign in Corona advertised large new homes in the $500,000’s. Only very stupid buyers will but at near that price anywhere in the IE. Also there is a large industrial/ warehousing complex going up off Cal ave north of the 10 in redlands. Can’t belive they are still putting up large commercial/light Industral tracts in the current liqiudity credit crunch but this projest was launched almost a year ago and cannot stop now.
Overall, new IE housing/commercial tracts and projects launched 1-2 years ago before this US credit contraction are still coming to market, even as the IE is in total ecomomic meltdown. Latest Datquick shows housing prices fell 6% in riverside county and 3.5 % in San Berdoo county. This is just a distorted Median Lie: after taking out incentiives and the more larger costlier new megahomes the real price drops are probably more than 10%. Bet existing homes in the IE simply are not selling: thus the skyrocketing IE foreclosure rates.
The IE is total wasteland territory as of aug 2007. Expect to see REO’s for under $100,000 first Q2008 for large SFH;s in the wasteland outer boonie parts of the IE(Perris,edge distrcts of Moreno valley, hemet, L. Elsinore, San Jacinto, banning, beaumont, devore, yucaipa, sun city, menifee, Romoland - even in slightly better Corono/ temecula, Murrieta areas. As for the outer rim mongolian wasteland deserts of Victor valley, hesperia, victorville,adelanto, apple valley,forget it: they are already in RE apocalyptic meltdown and flatlined.
–
Yes, various time lags in the economy are very nasty. The pipeline effect will destroy businesses in construction and related areas a year or two from now if not sooner.
Jas
And yet here in Northern New Jersey, the listings from realtors I receive on a daily basis are astounding. The prices are still at disturbed levels. My wife and I laugh… out load. There was a house listed in the mid 800 range for almost a year with no takers. What does the seller do? He raised the price to 929K.
Still think we’re at the beginning of this–the big declines have only begun in a few places (FL, Vegas, some parts of CA, maybe some of Phoenix). it’s coming to a neighborhood near you. Soon.
Gary, of course the seller raised his price from 800 - 929. He has a years worth of payments and profits to recoup.
Over on Phillyblog there are lots of realtors who post about how great the housing market is. Personally I doubt their numbers but have retired from the field until such time as the evidence is incontrovertible.
Over on Phillyblog.com there are lots of Realtors who post about how great the housing market is. Personally I doubt their numbers but have retired from the field until such time as the evidence is incontrovertible.
/I’m sorry if this double posts but I waited 15 min, did a rain dance and it never showed up.
almost forgot. the realtor representing the seller, Ellen, is also the “vile and leacherous person” who represented her when she bought! Imagine THAT conversation…..Well it really WAS a great price you got the house for back then but now ??????????????????
An update on my April 10 post re Gilroy:
Comment by mad_tiger
2007-04-10 15:07:49
I keep an eye on Gilroy, aka Garlic Capital of the US (or is it the World?), as a leading indicator of the what may happen to housing on the SF Peninsula. I don’t track it in detail, just an occasional glance at MLSlistings.com. Currently there are just over 300 listings—100 listings per page priced low to high. A glance half-way down the second page (listing no. 150) shows a median asking price of about $730k. Last year it was $800k.
Gilroy is in the middle of nowhere. Still don’t know how they will burn through over 300 units in inventory at those prices. Or for that matter at any price.
Well, as of today MLSlistings.com is showing 407 active SFR listings in Gilroy. Ranked low price to high listing no. 204 shows a median asking price of just under 700k. So in just over 4 months inventory has increased about 33% (from about 300 to 400) and asking prices have declined about 4% (from $730k to $700k). In the last 16 months asking prices have declined about 12.5% (from $800k to $700k).
That to me looks like the first step in a 1000 mile journey. Just a cursory check of craigslist reveals the following listing. Rent 2200/month, so it should be priced around 240K. This should be a median house 2000 sq feet. So the prices have to drop 66% from here to be in line, and prices will overshoot on the downside, by the time this is all over you would have to give these things away.
4 Bedrooms
2.5 Bathrooms
2 Car Garage
No Pets
Rent $2,200
Security Deposit $2,400
Gilroy, CA
4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, approximately 1976 Sq.Ft., 2 car garage with remotes, A/C, Tile entry, Kitchen features refrigerator, 4 burner gas stove and microwave,
Greeting from Seal Beach, CA
1301 Ocean Ave. Seal Beach; Sold 07/15/05 $1,775,000
Bank Owned, List Price 08/16/07 $1,269,900
Nice Haircut!
$1,775,000… so you can look at the ocean oil derricks & supertankers…the beach & water are just crappy…
Test
85249 (South Chandler, AZ) and Metro Phoenix
End of month closes for 85249 averaged 4.6 per day for July 07 (07/27 - 08/02/07), compared to an average of 7.8 per day during the month end weeks Feb - Jun 07, a drop of 41%.
Price per square foot on resales dropped to $150 07/27 - 08/02/07, compared to $172 per square foot 06/27 - 07/26/07, a 13% drop.
Per Twist at Housing Doom, for the first two weeks of August 07, YOY sales are down 36%, compared to 23% in May 07, 25% in Jun 07, and 29% in July 07. YOY drops of 23%, 25%, 29%, and 36% appears to me that sales volume is not only decreasing, but decreasing at an accelerating pace.
Correction - the YOY sales data above is for Metro Phoenix, not just 85249
This unremarkable New Construction in SoCo–south of Costco, 90066–was on the market for six months and is now in escrow for the full price, apparently, of 1.475 Million.
I’m tempted to scrawl “Sucker!” on the lawn sign.
http://tinyurl.com/3c2ojq
What are the chances this sale will go through?
Here in Northern Ohio multiple listings of active for sales returned to its steady increase of about 50 per week (now approaching 28,000), more pending and contingent sales falling through and gong active again. Digging into county records, more listings are at or close to their total mtg+ HELOC number; Florida, dont count on many Ohio snowbirds this season!
Oh……….. what a heavenly thought!!!
Snowbird shortage?
Tell me I’m not dreaming.
Santa Clara County, CA milestone:
Today, combined SFR + Condo inventory breaks 6000.
2006 peak inventory was somewhere slightly north of 4500, in October.
2005 peak inventory was ~3250, in October.
Of course these are still relatively small numbers, given the population 1.7 million.
Unfortunately, here in SCC, “…they’re not re-zoning anymore land.”
Do you have a link for where you found this info? THX.
Friday August 10th, there were 90 - 96 places for rent in Regina, SK Canada. Today, there are 276 places for rent. No bubble here. Everyone wants to live in boring Regina.
Just an observation in the los angeles area-I’ve seen an amazing amount of for sale signs on fairfax south of Pico and laurel canyon all the way from wilshire to ventura. Sometimes I play a game as I drive to work to see if I can count how many houses are for sale and if the number is going up or not. It’s tough with all the multiple signs and flags and properties for sale right next to and across the street from each other. But I continue to try! I hope to be counting sign spinners next year, and I think I’m goinig to start a page with just photos of realtors sweating in the heat as they set up their flags and signs and balloons. I love it!
Update on Santa Monica
I haven’t posted on this for a few months as not much had changed. Well, today DQ and the LAT published the July sales for LA County, and it looks like there is finally something to report. Anecdotally, I have seen a few more For Sale signs popping up in my area, but the big change is that sales have almost ground to a halt as we reach the end of the summer selling season. In 90401 and 90402, the most expensive of the Santa Monica zips (90401-90405) only 7 SFHs sold. In the mid-city (90403 and 90404) only 2 SFHs sold. A dozen houses sold in 90405. Of the few that sold in 90402, they must have been really high-end, because the median price in 90402 almost doubled to $2.8 million. In 90405 where 12 houses sold, the median dropped slightly to $1.18 million.
Condo sales citywide have slowed as well, only 38 sales for all five zips. YOY median prices for condos were down between 5% and 25%, depending on the zip.
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
It looks like I was early in my prediction that the market would freeze up this spring. About 5 months early - I certainly do not expect to see jump in sales when the August number come out next month
Hey Joe, where you going with that mortgage… out of hand?
From the Summer of Love, to the Summer of Shove…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JecyHi0YAw4&mode=related&search=
I was in Longmont Colorado for the last week and was amazed at the number of homes for sale. Longmont is about 30 miles NW of Denver. In some developments there were so many houses for sale. All at high wishing prices. In one development there were 15-20 house for sale out of the 60-75 that were there. Several of these houses had no window coverings. They were most likely flippers. On one street were there were 6 houses 3 of them were for sale. In another development there were so many houses for sale I stopped looking. In that development there were 5 houses for sale on one short street that had about 15 houses in total. As I came to a stop sign I could see three more house for sale to my left and two to the right before the street curved around. Most if not all of these houses were built since 2003. I talked with a realtor who said that many people bought with 100% loans in the area. The last time I was there was in 2003 and most homes were selling for $115-$120 a square foot. Now they are up to $175 per square foot.
I am looking to move there in 2008 or 2009 and expect to get a house for $110 per square foot with hardwood floors and granite countertops.
That area is TOAST!
Longmont used to be where people lived who couldn’t afford Boulder but who worked there, not a bad commute and was a nice town in some ways. Haven’t been there for years, can’t imagine what you’re portraying, as when I was there in the mid-80s (working for a few months), it was just a sleepy town with nice big tree-lined streets.
I’ve been tracking the number of resale houses on the market at http://www.metrolist.com which covers primarily the Denver metro area and its exurbs like Longmont. Inventory is STILL increasing as the summer draws to a close. Not a good sign…
4/7 - 19,309
4/14 - 19,616
4/22 - 20,030
4/29 - 20,135
5/6 - 20,235
5/13 - 20,637
5/20 - 20,917
5/27 - 21,236
6/3 - 21,194
6/10 - 21,611
6/17 - 21,861
6/24 - 22,110
7/1 - 22,311
7/8 - 22,078
7/15 - 22,296
7/22 - 22,443
7/29 - 22,632
8/5 - 22,435
8/12 - 22,728
8/19 - 22,824
From Glenwood Springs, Colorado, an article titled “Housing Still Trending Upward,” in which it is noted that this area IS indeed different from the rest of the world (and, ironically, in the same paper’s RE classifieds, many properties with motivated sellers):
“It’s been business as usual,” Guccini said. “I don’t think our valley has shown what the rest of the nation is doing.”
Guccini guessed that June was a slower month than usual, but said that the reason for the slowdown in transactions was an increase in available properties in the valley at that time.
“That will tend to slow things down a little,” he said. “But it will pick up again. I don’t see any signs that it will slow down like the rest of the nation.”
http://tinyurl.com/35mnlc
Reading this Blog I always wonder what do people do for money to afford 1.5 million dollar homes in CA? Amazing amounts of money.
must all work in real estate or something? I wonder how thats going to work out for them in the future?
I remember when only movie stars could buy million dollar homes.
In the show Entourage on HBO the newly rich crew heads out to buy a movie star home with $1,000,000 cash and all they can find is rundown shacks at that price in LA.
Comment by waiting_for_the_fall
2007-08-18 21:11:36
I remember when only movie stars could buy million dollar homes.
Add to that successful doctors, lawyers, and business owners.
Gallatin Valley MLS (Bozeman/Big Sky, MT)
Category, 8/9/2007, 8/16/2007
SF under 1 acre, 1144, 1136
Condo/Townhouse, 880, 886
SF over 1 acre, 740, 739
Total homes, 2870, 2866
Lots, 3017, 3026
Other land, 1188, 1220
Almost none have pending offers
Using recent census data:
81k population (2006), 3% annual growth
34k housing units (2005)
So 1 home + 1 lot on the MLS for every 28 current residents (including children, many students, and recreational transients). 10%+ of ALL SFH, condos and townhomes are currently listed on the MLS, or 8% of total housing inventory (including multifamily rental units) are currently on the market. And this doesn’t include (1) abundant FSBO’s, (2) many builder homes, and (3) a substantial number of homes taken off the market “until things pick up.”
Even with 3% pop growth it would take several years to burn through current inventory. And when this boom goes bust, you can expect population to decline dramatically due to the very transient nature of the area (this happened with the previous Bozeman bust).
Crash and Burn.
North County San Diego:
As mentioned before, we’re trying to sell one mobile home (senior park) and one SFH.
Mobile home is now in escrow after listing it for about 8% below mid-2004 price. It took less than two weeks, but is not as vulnerable to the credit crunch as SFHs.
The SFH (also listed less than two weeks ago) is located near an area that is pretty hard-hit by foreclosures –though the house is in a nicer area. We priced it 6% below the Realtor’s recommended price (which was already low as we told her we wanted to move it fast). We lowered again, against her wishes, to 9% below her desired price. This is over 25% lower than peak price (Q3, 2005). Since we’re priced well, there have been quite a few lookers and some tentative verbal offers, but none are as qualified as I’d like. Our realtor has been given instructions to only take offers from pre-approved buyers with conforming loans (or more than 30% down & otherwise pre-approved by a BIG mortgage company).
We’ve been waiting for this credit crunch for over three years. It figures that it’s happening right when we need to sell (parent’s properties).
Interesting that the Realtor is resisting lowering the price. One would think they would go for the quick buck. Must be the peer pressure. I would love the have a wiretap on her when she’s back at the office reporting the fire-sale…. they’d be slapping her with wet towels: “Here’s for ruining our comps! Slap! Take this one, traitor! Slap!”
And so it begins in earnest … look at the spread between old “value” and starting bid.
http://tinyurl.com/yukwu5
Does anyone know what the home sales volume was in Philadelphia last quarter? I know the median was up but I’d prefer to know how many homes actually sold.
From http://www.housingtracker.net/
Date Inventory (SFH + Condo) 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
08/13/2007 19,914 $132,500 $225,000 $349,900
08/06/2007 19,659 $132,900 $227,900 $349,900
07/30/2007 19,713 $133,000 $229,000 $349,900
07/23/2007 19,660 $134,900 $229,900 $350,000
Yea but those aren’t sales numbers.
I was hoping for the over all number of sales in my region. But I don’t know where to find them.
I checked DQNews, but they do not have anything for Eastern seaboard cities. There are a lot of posters here from NoVA. They may know where to find the data you seek.
They’re still building the Mcmansions and McCondos up here in the midwest…but not for long.
Housing will be screwed for generations to come. I’ve heard of parts of Europe where housing has sank back to what it was in the 1800s, yes, 1800s in pricing. You could literally put the whole house on a credit card and be done with it. Could that happen here??? Maybe…
“The Seattle-based company said the move to try to sell the property isn’t a reflection of the decline in the residential real-estate market, or on downtown Stockton.”
TRANSLATION: The move to try to sell the property is a reflection of the decline in the residential real-estate market, and on downtown Stockton.