Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For August 23, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Anyone think that Bank of America’s move was made to buy Countrywide more time, so that Congress can get busy opening up the lending flood gates again (i.e., raising or eliminating the cap on conforming loans, or maybe the Fed dropping rates)?
Interesting that B of A probably will be a passive investor in Countrywide, so it won’t get stuck with liability for Countrywide’s huge, and growing by the day, portfolio of non-performing loans - not to mention the lawsuits just filed against Countrywide.
Sounds like “death spiral” financing to me. Here’s one astute poster’s take on this deal: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3223&tid=128776&mid=128776&tof=98&frt=2
Not death spiral but definitely the kind of thing that went on in telecom stocks, which depressed their prices for years. If things get worse yet, I’d expect to see some funky financing deals with the hb as well if they need cash. Some of those you can short to zero.
I was an investor in Winstar in the 90’s. They had similar kind of financing and the stock was stuck for a long time (even as the industry was in the boom phase!) because the issuing bank kept shorting the stock to collect its fat yield with no risk.
CFC has a date at the chopping block and BAC just positioned itself as the head butcher.
IMHO it appears to be BAC doubling down. BAC is the largest mortgage holder in California Jumbo mortgages.
Why are they doubling down on a 16, with a 10 showing?
Hoz, can you explain the “doubling down”, please?? Thanks!!
BAC is the largest second lien lender in the US and has the greatest exposure. If the housing market completely tanks, BAC takes some substantial losses. The market is already anticipating the losses, BAC is making a wager that RE is not going to come apart. If the housing market does not tank, BAC makes a lot of moneys. If it tanks BAC loses what the market is already projecting and only $2B more. That is doubling down, instead of reducing exposure it added to it.
Second Lien Lenders in the US $ volume
http://tinyurl.com/25s6tg
Thanks Hoz. So are they also saying “ah, since we may end up taking a hit anyways, what’s another 2B given the upside if the market doesn’t tank??
But they don’t lose the 2B if CFC goes to zero, according to the link, because they’re shorting against the preferred stock they got in the deal.
If CFC goes to 100, BAC converts their shares @ 18 to cover the shorts at 23 and they make $555M + difference in interest rate (5.25 vs 7.25).
If CFC goes to 0, BAC has the stock shorted and makes all that money anyway plus they’re first in line to pick through the pieces. So, the worst that BAC stands to make is tons of money, there’s no scenario where they lose money. And yes, this is at the expense of the common stockholders in CFC.
IMHO, Bank of America will not illegally sort stock, Bank of America is not legally allowed to sell Countrywide stock - until 18 months after exercising the conversion. Should Countrywide go into BK, Bank of America would not be first in line, Bank of America would be in line before common shareholders, but they would be after the Countrywide bond holders. If Countrywide were to go south, the company could burn through all its assets so that only the bond holders would receive anything.
Hoz, thanks for the 2nd lien lender chart. Always appreciate your insights.
Could you or someone else explain whether these numbers reflect actually holdings (baggage) or are they originations?
Thanks
I thought that was what banks use prop desks for. Anyway, they already have the profit they just need an investment that hedges against CFC.
one wonders what percentage of BoA’a second loan portfolio has Countrywide holding the first?
Bank of America buoys Countrywide
Lender sells off $2 billion in stock
By Bradley Keoun
BLOOMBERG NEWS
August 23, 2007
Countrywide Financial, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, sold $2 billion in preferred stock to Bank of America to bolster its finances amid the nation’s worst housing slump since the Great Depression.
Bank of America, the second-biggest U.S. lender, bought stock that yields 7.25 percent and can be converted into common shares at a price of $18, Calabasas-based Countrywide said in a statement yesterday.
The cash will help Countrywide keep making loans and might reassure investors after a week of tumult for the company and the housing market. On Aug. 15, a Merrill Lynch analyst predicted a cash shortfall might force Countrywide into bankruptcy, and the next day Countrywide had to tap $11.5 billion in emergency financing when creditors curtailed its access to short-term debt.
The company is getting “a vote of confidence from a deep-pocketed partner,” said Sean Egan, managing director of Egan-Jones Ratings in Haverford, Pa. “We’d get a lot more comfort if it was $5 billion or $10 billion, but we’ll take what we can get.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070823/news_1b23country.html
““We’d get a lot more comfort if it was $5 billion or $10 billion, but we’ll take what we can get.”
LOL!!
Thank you Sir! May I have another.
People are Smart! -epitath for the greatest credit bubble in modern history.
LMAO!
LMFAO! That would be an awesome political cartoon– the image of the headstone with that written. 2000-2007.
lMfao at that cartoon idea!
Yeah, that commercial absolutely kills me. It’s like “hey you dumbos with the exploding ARMs, you need to call us. NOW!”
This is sheer marketing genius. People must be feeling stupid about their mortgages and too despondent to call for a new one, so the marketing guys say hey, let’s just tell everyone that they are “Smart”, just like we told them they could afford this loan or just refinance later once they built up all that equity.
Hey–they’re still playing that ‘people are smart’ refi ad on the radio here in the Seattle area, heard it again last night on my way home.
Anybody that wouldn’t jump at the chance to lower their monthly payments and increase their cashflow is an idiot, right?
Why do I have a funny feeling BofA does not know the value of the non-performing assets (REO Foreclosures) in the Countrywide
inventory. Just a couple of “Enron accounting types” at B of A who took Countrywide’s accounting figures, crunched them into some computer model, and spit out some kind of return that the bosses at B of A said WOW! Except they didn’t mark down the value of the wasting assets in Countrywides inventory, the non-performing and deteriorating foreclosed houses.
I remember from the RTC days, that the non-performing assets are audited once a year in the last week of January, and marked down to value….that’s when B of A will find out what a great deal they DID NOT get.
Just a funny feeling……
This reminds me of a conversation I had with Mrs. dude yesterday. She was pumping my ego telling me that I am obviously quite a lot smarter than your average Wall street analyst or bank president.
It’s true that many of this saw this coming for years, and many of us that trade have made big money from this foreknowledge. The greatest revelation to me is that these “financial wizards” just aren’t that smart.
I look forward to a life time of running rings around them.
Wouldn’t you prefer a quickie, as opposed to an ego pumping???
Significantly outperforming the market certainly doesn’t hurt the chances of outperforming in other areas as well…
Lucky man……
And those Enron accounting types were all in their pre-teens during the last RTC, so they have little actual industry knowledge and experience from which to draw upon to gain an understanding of how bad its really going to get.
They don’t need to know which mortgages are bad, Consider this scenario: if they bought $2 billion in preferred stock that yields 7.25 percent at 18$ a share its a safe thing to short 111 million shares at the 23.20 market its currently trading at. They are going to pocket like 500 million and if more mortgage paper goes bad they can short CFC all the way to zero. There is no risk for BAC.
If it goes higher they are covered like another poster said. There is no risk for BAC. Plus if CFC files Ch11 they get to pick the bones apart and they will get first choice in buying the only profitable part of the newly crippled business, the loan servicing part.
Good points.
State of CFC’s finances according to Bloomberg:
“The only time you see terms like this is if a company is really desperate for financing,” said Andrea Revy O’Connell, president and chief executive officer of Froley Revy Investment Co., which manages $800 million in convertible bond assets.
A 7.25 percent coupon on a convertible “is pretty rare on a company that’s investment-grade,” O’Connell said in an interview from her Los Angeles office. “I wouldn’t mind getting seven and a quarter.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adirmTjCT9XE&refer=home
Buy low, sell high. Easy to say, hard to do.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/08/23/6793/ken-fisher-ballyhoo-and-the-return-of-greed/
and the other side
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/08/23/6797/ubs-report-on-the-fallout-not-everyone-thinks-its-all-over/
With all the subprime players getting nuked and the LBO activities disappearing, IMHO “the other side” seems more likely.
From the WSJ
Wall Street firms, which had raced to buy mortgage originators to feed their lucrative business of packaging the loans as securities, marked a retreat from that tattered field yesterday when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said it will CLOSE its unit that lent to riskier borrowers.
The closure will add to the thousands of layoffs related to the subprime pullback
“I don’t think we’re going to see much of a Wall Street presence going forward” in originating home mortgages, said Tom LaMalfa, a managing director at Wholesale Access, a mortgage-research firm in Columbia, Md. Mr. LaMalfa said while he expects Wall Street firms to focus on their traditional roles in packaging and trading mortgage securities, those businesses will be smaller as lenders retain more of their loans as long-term investments or sell them to government-sponsored investors Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
For years, mortgages fueled big profits on Wall Street as low interest rates drove a boom in home sales, many of them financed by adjustable-rate loans.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118780861416605549.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Wonder what the simulation says if they enter 50% drop in U.S. and Euro housing prices?
It’s all just a typical bull market correction, says Fisher
Wasn’t Fisher’s grandfather the famous academic who proclaimed stocks had reached a “permanently high plateau” right before the ‘29 crash?
Oops, I think that’s wrong. Do the research BEFORE posting…
Nothing has blown up in 24 hours. I’m bored.
Don’t worry, be happy! There are plenty of torpedoes in the water More hedgies , banks, HBs, lenders are all petering as i speak!
Just because you didn’t read about it in the MSM doesn’t mean it did not happen.
Like this - my friend has been installing water services in canyon lake for about 6 months.
his inspector told him the water district has been pulling water meters off properties in foreclosure at the rate of 15 a day.
that area would include Murietta, Lake Elsinore, Wildomar ad Canyon Lake in So Cal.
Pulling water meters off? Do they actually remove the meters for unoccupied homes? Just wondering - seems odd. I’ve never heard of that before.
its probably because the meters get stolen for their junk/salvage value.
yo ho yo ho…
The inland empire adjacent life for me
They remove the meter and cap the pipes. This will keep people from squating in the house. No water supply.
“Like this - my friend has been installing water services in canyon lake for about 6 months.”
I have not been out to canyon lake but That entire region of SE Riverside county(Part of the I-15 housing explosion)which includes L elsinore,Temecula. Murriets Wildomar,South Corona,Alberhill,Glen ivy- Basically what is referred as the Temecula valley from Corona all wat to Temecula- IS COMPLETELY OVERRRUN WITH NEW HOUSING TRACTS AND HOMES.
THIS AREA OF THE IE, THOUGH IT IS NOT THE UGLIEST SECTION AS COMPARED TO PARTS OF SAN BERDOO- RIVERSIDE COUNTY FURTHER EAST, HAS SEEN MORE NEW HOMES/TRACTS PUT UP THAN ANT OTHER AREA OF SCAL.
NOT AT ALL SURPRIZED AT THE HIGH LEVEL OF FORECLOSURES IN SUCH PLACES AS CANYON LAKE. BUILDERS OF NEW HOMES ARE SIMPLY UNDERCUTTUNG THE BUYERS/SELLERS OF EXISTING NEW/OLDER HOMES AND THREFORE FORECLOSURES ARE POPPING OUT ALL OVER THIS AREA LIKE CLUSTER BOMBLETS.
“THOUGH IT IS NOT THE UGLIEST SECTION AS COMPARED TO PARTS OF SAN BERDOO- RIVERSIDE COUNTY”
There are some nice areas in Temecula/Murrieta, the problem is that people overpaid. $600K for a tract home with no yard and 2 hours to work each way is not all that appealing. Now for $150K maybe.
Lots of attitude there too amongst the wanna-be’s who couldn’t afford the OC and San Diego proper. But most of the people are just middle class/working class, but since it is “Whiter” than say Moreno Valley or San Bernardino or Fontana, the people thought they had a better pot to piss in. Lots of hurt coming their way. Many working in construction or r.e. When will people learn that we are all in it together and cut the pretentious crap. Good to see them coming down a notch or two…
My contractor is currently building a $1M place in Canyon Lake…supposedly for “retirement”…wonder if it was a really a flip…lol
Mozillo to be on CNBC at 11:30. I have no respect for this leatherette gut sack, and it will be interesting to hear him spin the PPT arranged $2 billion cash infusion by BOA. I hope they ask him why CFC needed more cash after drawing down their $11 billion credit line last week.
Remember, the survivor wins. Someone is going to have to make loans at lower prices someday. All he’s got to do is stay alive.
Hard to do when you are a walking melanoma.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
I know..that guy is tanner than George Hamilton!
Yes!
Enough with the “survivor wins” BS. That’t the only bullish argument for CFC, and it’s silly. Yes, many mortgage companies are going to disappear. But what’s to stop new players from entering the mortgage business to compete with CFC? Obviosuly, the barrier to entry in the mortgage business is not that huge (considering how many existed before the credit crash). Plus, any new player will start with a clean balance sheet while CFC is surviving through desperation financing.
Agreed. Let the market finish the job of rooting out the lenders who made crazy loans, and soon there will be a miraculous new bloom of prudent lenders who don’t encourage households to put themselves on course to future foreclosure. The PPT intervention on CFC’s behalf interfered with the invisible hand’s remedy for bad lending practices.
Especially if CFC is a tainted brand in the consumers eyes. Someone else can rise from the ashes, a smaller player.
Freon-12 = CFC
I agree - $2 billion more - what are they specifically planning on doing with the money? Are tehy just going to p*** it away in their business as usual model. The real problem is that their entire business model is flawed - I don’t see how throwing good money after bad is going to solve County Wide’s problems.
What is CFC supposed to do with a lousy $2b? That wont even pay Mozillo’s tanning bill.
“What is CFC supposed to do with a lousy $2b?”
It’ll be used for insurance on their debt while they revalue their debt. Nobody there is getting any sleep right now, and I’m sure everyone near the top is scared too. People go to prison when big money is lost.
Depends when they sold their stock
Sounds reminiscent of the dot bomb era. CFC must have a high cash burn rate if they needed to raise $11b + $2b = $13b in cash over two week’s time in highly-publicized borrowings.
“CFC must have a high cash burn rate”
What do you call bank withdrawls?
“Jethro…get Granny…we’re gonna go see mister Drysdale and talk to him about redepositing my money…someplace else.”
leatherette gut sack
Ha. A nice turn of phrase.
Pleather, not leather. LOL
Ha ha - kind of like “bef” or “loobster”.
I do have a modicum of respect for Mr. Mozillo, he was saying over a year ago that there would be no soft landing. He sounded the alarms, at the same time NAR, Wall Street and the federal government were all saying “soft landing”. He was selling his stock and booking his profit and mopes on the street were buying overvalued MBS because their computers told them to buy.
Now that the wheels have come off the cart, it does not seem right to blame Mr. Mozillo. Find one quote were he says “it is a good time to buy Real Estate” instead you will find quotes like “It just takes a long time to change, to turn a battleship around. This is a huge battleship and it’s headed in the wrong direction.” or “I’ve never seen a soft-landing in 53 years, so we have a ways to go before this levels out”. He sold stock. He told the truth. For being over compensated, I have to agree. For forthrightness, he is straight.
But Hoz, he’s too tan.
Yeah! Icky! Icky orange man!
Unacceptable!
Testify, Vulture!
Oh My God! I was reading this when suddenly it hit me….I have a friend that does the same thing Countrywide is doing. Whenever we go to Vegas, he takes around $400 to gamble with. He’ll lose that in about an hour at the blackjack table and go to the ATM to get another $400 to “WIN IT BACK!”
Kudos to you Utah, for resisting becoming part of the Gambling Gulag, that is our country (houses are ok to gamble on, though)
No casinos, no lotteries in the beehive state
Just a lot of very clean, organized sheeple with firmly fixed smiles. Who did, it appears, go right ahead and gamble on their houses, gamble as wildly as drunken sailors.
That’s okay, Baby Jebus will step in and fix things when the boo boos get too hurty. Just pray harder.
hmm, that was nice. You seem like a really great person.
I’m sure she is a great person. She just doesn’t have an imaginary playmate.
‘Leatherette gut sack’
I like it.
Here’s a little excerpt from the National Intelligence Director’s interview regarding the administration’s wiretapping program:
“McConnell confirmed for the first time that the private sector assisted with President Bush ’s warrantless surveillance program. AT&T, Verizon and other telecommunications companies are being sued for their cooperation. “Now if you play out the suits at the value they’re claimed, it would bankrupt these companies,” McConnell said, arguing that they deserve immunity for their help.”
We desperately need separation of business and state, like yesterday. Maybe lenders can argue they deserve immunity somehow.
“Now if you play out the suits at the value they’re claimed, it would bankrupt these companies,”
I think many major corporations deserve a good bankrupting, for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is deceptive business practices. Would this cause major disruptions, etc.? Yes, but it would be a lesson Americans would not forget for a while, about taking responsiblity for the society and its businesses and how the unethical and illegal actions of the few can affect the lives of the many.
Agreed.
This is another case of the legal lackeys not doing their job. How do corporate attorneys let this stuff get passed them? I read that Qwest was the only one who refused to do it on legal grounds, so there’s no excuse for the others. They need to learn their lesson the hard way. Bankruptcies all around!
That’s a great question.
Who were these (presumably elite) corporate legal minds who signed off on something so clearly unconstitutional?
You’d think the threat of future litigation alone would’ve been enough to make The Pinstripe Suits balk — constitutional and moral issues aside, it was a dumb business decision. Unless the problem can be legislated away, of course.
(Quest was indeed the only major company to refuse. Bravo for them.)
Yeah, but the decision was made by then-CEO Joe Nacchio. I think he’s in jail today.
Yep:
On July 27, 2007, Joseph Nacchio was sentenced to six years in federal prison. Federal Judge Edward Nottingham also ordered Nacchio to pay a $19 million fine and forfeit $52 million he gained in illegal stock sales.
The right to privacy is something that our ancestors fought and died for, it was so valuable. Now, we are so willing to just give it away, without even knowing what it is we are giving away. I notice that people my parents’ age just don’t get it. If a Stasi agent followed a person into a bookstore and made notes of which books the person looked at, most people would get it (or would they?). But somehow, when the NSA tracks your activity at Amazon.com or tracks which web sites are visited, blog entries etc., it’s no big deal. Sorry, but it is a big deal.
People don’t understand the link between our current economic problems and the loss of liberty we have experienced. Liberty is what brings economic prosperity. Take away Liberty, and you find societies in which a select few people prosper at the expense of the everyone else.
Historically America’s strength has been small/home businesses. But many administrations have taken antagonistic stances towards small business and congress has progressively passed more legislation making it more difficult for small businesses to survive.
Why? It’s much easier for government to control a few mega corps than it is to control millions of small companies. There will be no meaningful change without a revolution to go back to following the constitution. While I think Thomas Jefferson was a little out there advocating having a revolution every 20 years, maybe he was on to something…..
It’s because big business has big money. And it seems that business is running the government, not the other way around.
So true. Anyone notice how big biz is driving the Security and Prosperity Partnership (AKA the North Amaerican Union)meetings in Canada this week? Gov’t of, for and by big biz. Its good to be the King!
Little coverage that I could see in American msm, but big news here. Local Canadians definetely see themselves being dragged into unwanted further union with US. The government spokeswoman was all over the news assuring folks that anyone who objects is a conspiracy nut. Of course, all the deals being done are on a handshake basis, with neither Congressional or Parliamentary oversight.
Also, no news of deals being released until the final paperwork is done. Nothing like democracy in action.
It’s better to be the king of the Western Hemishpere. North America + Central America + South America = Organization of the American States (www.oas.org).
Of course, the eventual goal is for a single government in the western hemisphere, run by mega-corporations.
Big business spins the globe.
Atlas Shrugged…
…and the girl in the corner said boy, I wanna warn ya, it’ll turn into a ballroom blitz
- song by Sweet (1973)
Big business can contribute big bucks to campaigns. Small businesses can’t.
Control megacorps? Surely you jest. It’s the megacorps which control Congress…. hence these serial debacles, each initially designed to vacuum as much cash into as few hands as possible…
Good news! CNY is different sez the local media. Home sales and prices keeping up with last year.
‘The Greater Syracuse Association of Realtors says it’s surviving the slump, though prices are down. Real Estate Agent David Manzano says, ‘As far as a bottom falling out type of scenario, I really don’t see that here in Syracuse. I see this as an adjustment period price wise.’
‘For Keith Tupper, the offers came rolling in two days after his home went on the market. Tupper says it’s not as much as he probably could have gotten a couple years ago.’
‘Dave Manzano, who’s been a real estate agent for 18 years now, says homes on the west side of the county seem to be selling well. The picture isn’t so good for homes on the east side, especially the high end homes, in the $400,000 to $600,000 range. ‘
‘As far as a bottom falling out type of scenario, I really don’t see that here in Syracuse. ‘
They’re already on the bottom in Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, Binghamton, so prices can’t go much lower. The next stop is large scale abandonment. Some parts of the regions are already there.
In fact, if the bust stops construction on greenfield sites, it might prop up older housing for a while.
Oh, and I don’t think the shortage of jumbo loans will be a problem up there! And they have no insurance woes. Just taxes (to put all remaining politically connected people on the public payroll and send NYC part of the bill) and energy.
Please help!
Last year, The JBG Companies has purchased an Arlington, VA, building where I rent with the goal of demolishing it and building a high-rise. The intent is to create an expensive mix of commercial tenants, condominiums and high-end rentals.
I am hoping that with the recent over-supply and loan issues they may put their plans on hold. I like living here exactly as it is
How can I find out in what financial state JBG are? Is there a way to check on their current plans?
I noticed that people here get remarkable data on housing, e.g., who owned what, for how long, at what price, with what kind of a loan, etc. Perhaps, somebody can point me in a right direction.
I would rather use my computer than go to the local housing authorities
Thanks a million!
Try the City permitting office - see if they have all their permits - plumbing, electrical, site plan, etc…. If they have all their permits - they’ll be ready for construction very quickly. Usually, the builders get their big check financing after they clear permitting. Then, no matter what is happening in the market - they are required to build - the sooner the better. If the investors are getting cold feet, they will walk away before all permits are received. However, there is usually a significant penalty to be paid by the investors at that point.
TXChic,
I hear Wall Street is on fire and expects the FED to cut rates. What do you think the FED does?
If they don’t cut, does the market tank? Is there a good exit near for those that went long on a few thing (like AAPL).
Tom
Also, the funny thing is, CFC is up to $25 a share in premarket with BAC’s $2 Billion cash infusion, but BAC got the shares for $18 a piece.
It’s starting to look like that panic low was a good buy, no?
We go back to the fibonnaci retracements on the S&P for guidance. We’re already a bit short from yesterday (trendline resistance) and are going to gap over that today. Very annoying. But we’re coming into some very negative seasonality here. I’d like to increase short positions but a bit higher. A lot of times the first week or ten days of September is up and then down the rest of the month and October.
Yes, that panic low was an outstanding buy, but I’m out out now. Too hard to figure out where the herd mentality is going from here, at least until the next Fed meeting. I’m betting on a 25-bp cut if we have additional publicized liquidity problems, followed by a predictable short-term rally when da boyz paint the tape. All bets would be off if we get a higher cut, although that might be an excellent short opportunity if Fed panic is perceived. The market has lately been an interesting study in crowd behavior, no?
“negative seasonality”
Fall…my favorite season!
Linus, I’m putting a hammock in your “Great Pumpkin Patch”
Fall is an appropriately named season.
From MarketWatch.com, Only Panic is Left by Harry Schultz
(sorry, for some reason I couldn’t get the tiny url to work)
“…We’ve entered that twilight zone and it will get worse and we’ll see a torrent of foreclosures over next 12 to 24 months. The “other shoe” will be falling for a long time, so investors should stop waiting for the markets to “calm down.” Instead, they should fix the roof of their financial houses.
Among things to do:
Assume the worst scenario is possible and plan for it. If it doesn’t reach that stage, you won’t have lost traction but bought yourself peace of mind and financial insurance.
If you own the high yield currencies (I do), switch partially to low yielders for now. My favorite is the Swiss franc. Pays near zero interest but chart is bullish, so should give you capital gain. See currencies.
Worry about banks (all of them). Time deposits, even current accounts, in Europe, U.S., Canada and Asia banks are at risk if the bank goes under or takes a “bank holiday” (1933). The only things safe from bankruptcy to keep in a bank are: gold bullion (if in your own safe box), stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds are kept in safe custody accounts so they are ok if your bank tanks. (Some world banks have insurance, but it’s under $12,000. In the U.S., FDIC insurance is $100,000, which is nice but not sufficient for most middle income citizens, nor is it immediately payable in most cases. Additionally, not all US banks have FDIC insurance.)
Cut your stock positions down if you are too heavy there and/or use stops. Hold mainly oil, natural gas, base metals and precious metals. In general stocks, stay with big, big caps.
Reduce your U.S. dollars to near zero on the present rally, which should move up (on the U.S. Dollar Index) to 83 before topping.
There is much more to say but no time remains to say it. I close with this: From fear we’re morphing into panic.The able George Magnus of UBS says the “Minsky moment” is coming, when credit dries up even to sound borrowers. Only panic is left.
I think the rate cut is going to be priced in, if it’s not already. But I think that the Fed won’t cut rates because of inflation worries and weakening-dollar worries. My take is that the Fed took all that other action recently in lieu of a rate cut.
Going short just before the next Fed meeting may be a good bet. I don’t see much upside if they announce a cut (since it’s expected). If they don’t cut, look out below. TxChick??
I’m already partially short.
“I’m already partially short”
Newspaper reporter: “Mr Lincoln, being that your so tall, just how long should a man’s legs be?”
Mr Lincoln: (thoughtful pause)… “Long enough to reach the ground”
“My take is that the Fed took all that other action recently in lieu of a rate cut.”
I agree. BB is sailing the proverbial channel between a rock (credit bubble) and a hard place (inflation). Rather than smash himself against either, he’s digging the channel deeper to keep from running aground, hoping to navigate the channel between the two until he’s out in open ocean again. Problem is, those rocks and hard places extend long past the horizon, and they’re closing in faster than BB can dig.
Rather than digging, he should have landed softly against the rock, and spent his effort on recovery. (he knows this, but the PPT/PowersThatBe/etc hand him shovels and beg him to dig.)
[extended analogy off]
I don’t think there’ll be a cut. A lot of younger people don’t realize that rates are already historically low compared to other times. If you can’t afford a house now at these rates, you aren’t qualified to buy one.
I meant to add that we don’t need lower rates, we need lower prices.
I agree, yo.
Re: the Orwellian doublespeak society we actually live in these days…
The military has often suffered with inflation in their performance rating system. That is, nearly everyone is rated “best of the best.” This year, the Air Force just revised their rating system for all active duty personnel. One of the categories is “average.” Here’s the comment by one of the generals in charge of the personnel system:
“We have many outstanding Airmen [all Air Force personnel are called 'Airmen']. We don’t want ‘average’ to be the rating norm.”
So sorry, I thought “average” and “norm” were synonyms. My first thought when I saw that was Orwell:
War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
(and then, just to show you the influence this blog has had on me, I couldn’t remember Orwell’s last phrase…all I could think of was):
Debt is Wealth
Ignorance is strength, Fox is news. And I think it’s actually “Slavery is Freedom”, not the other way around.
cynicalgirl, thanks for the third, and I like the “Fox is news.” I just looked it up, and it actually is “Freedom is Slavery.”
–
We had Dept of War when we were less aggressive and no we have Dept. of Defense when we are mostly on offense.
Debt is a sign of strength and not a sign of weakness!
Jas
I often thought the same thing when I was active duty. It’s a stupid rating sytem. However it was the kiss of death to a guy’s career to rate him as “average”, so you had to mark them “outstanding” across the board.
Back when I was in the Navy, you’re first review after a promotion was 3.6. Your next review was 3.8. Your next was 4.0. It was just “the formula”.
It was so bad that they had to start ranking the top half of people. You’d get a number like 1 of 87, 2 of 87, 3 of 87 (assuming there were 87 of peple of you rank in the command).
I actually got ranked 3 of 163 at my last command. I asked my CPO how it worked…. pure back room politics amongst the CPOs. Each CPO has their favorite, then they form cliques, and then start making deals… .I’ll vote for your guy if you vote for mine…. So, you get rated highly, IF you’re the best in your department, your CPO likes you enough to fight for you, your CPO is good friends with all the other CPOs, AND your CPO happened to pick the clique that attracted the most other CPOs.
Very survivor like…. Of course, having things like 3 letters of comendation, navy acheivement medal, being selected Petty Officer of the Quarter, and finishing a Bachelors degree with 4.0 GPA, all within a year, gives your CPO ammo to position you up within their clique.
I changed commands, and suddenly I dropped from 3 of 163 to 35 of 93. I was no longer my CPOs favorite…. takes time to build relationshipd like that. AND, I’d made it clear that I was taking my govt. paid for degree and getting out of the Navy. No need to fight to get a promotion for someone that is leaving…. Not someone that will join the CPO ranks and be your puppy in the next round of clique formation….
Darrell, it’s still exactly the same way. In fact, part of your “development” as an officer is learning how to play this game, time your assignments/moves in relation to your promotion boards, etc.
I do have to say I have a more positive outlook on the military than I did before I came on active duty (I grew up in the post-Vietnam era, when the military was always portrayed in society as nothing but complete buffoons–think M*A*S*H). Thankfully, there are a lot of extremely sharp people in the Air Force. However, the system as a whole is filled with bureaucracy and cronyism, not to mention all the ridiculous political correctness that has infiltrated it in the last 15 years.
““We have many outstanding Airmen [all Air Force personnel are called ‘Airmen’]. We don’t want ‘average’ to be the rating norm.” “
They must recruit all their Airmen from lake Wobegon.
LOL - good one.
CNBC is saying that jobless claims are down 2,000 last week. How many layoffs in the mortgage industry alone last week? Something is amiss.
The government has been cooking the economic numbers since at least Clinton, and likely a lot further back than that. Their numbers come from a computer program, most likely programed by the same jokers who wrote the one for Wall Street that determined lending $700,000 to someone making $30,000 a year would be a good investment.
Week ending August 18th. It will be interesting to see what happens to the numbers this week.
Just like the talking heads are still debating if we are going to have a recession, while most would agree that we have already been in one. By the way, maybe someone more learned in econ can correct me, but I thought jobless claims was a lagging indicator? So when it actually starts getting worse, than it is a signal that we have already been in a recession. Layoffs are the result of a recession and hiring picks up only after the recession is over.
Mortgage brokers are mostly commissioned independent contractors and do not file unemployment claims. So it’s 2000 plus all realtors, mortgage orig., independent construction contractors, and appraisers.
All the unemployed Americans are finding jobs as taxi drivers to take all the unemployed Mexican construction workers back home.
Supposedly it’s different here too (Upstate SC/Greenville) as the media says we are not having the problems of the bubble markets. Then why are so many of our neighbors getting into MLM schemes? One woman tried to demonstrate a vacuum cleaner system, one is selling some $39.00 juice, and now one has invited my wife to a naughty toy slumber party…we are also having a HUGE crime wave of robberies and muggings…a cold wind seems to be blowing our way too.
While eating breakfast in Columbia SC I stopped by a local city cops table and asked what the major crime was, his reply, robbery. He was a transplant from CA Riverside area.
“He was a transplant from CA Riverside area.”
Most likely, you’ve just imported a future city lawsuit
“now one has invited my wife to a naughty toy slumber party”
That one might not be so bad, I guess it depends on if you can attend as well and what the other attendees/models look like… LOL
“naughty toy slumber party” SLUMBER PARTY?? Yuk! Am I the only one to make a connection between this immoral behavior and the financial mess the country is in?
Probably!
It appears that even of the homeowner doesn’t default, the mortgage bondholder doesn’t get paid. Instead, per an FBI bust, the escrow company steals the money.
http://www.amny.com/news/local/am-mort0823,0,4248145.story
We’ve got a new player in the scam of the millenium — the escrow holder. Joining the appraisers, bond rates, mortgage brokers, real estate brokers, shilling economists, MSM, monetary and regulatory authorities, flippers, living-large HELOCers, etc.
The Billy Joel song “I’ve Loved These Days” comes to mind.
Or “Miami 2017″. He might be right on with that one, timing-wise.
They stole that idea from ebay! I’m sure scambay is the training ground for many new criminals.
My property taxes ona few my investment homes held in escrow have not been paid to the Assessor’s office on the Aug 20 due date. They have a 10 day grace period. This has never happened in 13 years. Should I be concerned?
Yes. In an environment like this, people do desperate things.
Not just this. To manage a cash crunch businesses could withhold income and payroll taxes from employees and not forward them to the government, leaving the employee liable to pay those taxes all over again if the business goes under with the taxes unpaid. It happened in the early 1990s.
In light of the above, would it be a good idea to just pay my property taxes directly to the county treasurer, rather than having it come out of the mortgage? And, what about insurance? Same strategy?
Reason for the question: The holder of my mortgage just announced big layoffs.
Yes. Pay it, then tell your bank that you already paid it so they don’t need to.
Yes! This is exactly why we always pay the additional fee at closing not to have property taxes escrowed. This shenanigans happened last time around.
In Columbus, Ohio Feds just indicted 9 people on a mortgage fraud scheme. The value of 500 properties in central Ohio was exaggeraged to mortgage lenders and prospective buyers. The nine recruited inexperienced buyers, counting on their ignorance with real estate to hide the scheme. The defendents used fraudulent documents to misrepresent the buyers’ credit and obtain mortgages secured by the inflated values of the properites. Buyer’s were told they could buy with no money down, no monthly payments and no repairs. The nine would then take the money and leave the buyer owing more than the house was worth.
There’s a lot of people out there who should not be allowed to buy properties and the mortgage companies have managed to sell to just about all of them. What a mess.
When I did claims for a title co. 10+ years ago I spent the better part of 2 years cleaning up after an agent/escrowee who defalcated to the tune of $6mm. What a mess. I think I mentioned a week or two ago that agent embezzlement/defalcation was probably a large part of the stated increase in title insurance claims.
It occurs to me that one byproduct of the last couple of weeks is that we can finally put the PPT argument — does it exist or is it a myth? — to rest.
After what we’ve seen from the Fed and the IBs over the last several days, is there anyone left who doesn’t believe there are plenty of behind-the-scenes shenanigans perpetrated on a fairly regular basis?
Remember, they’re publicizing the Fed’s actions and discount window deals and the like because they’re trying to pump confidence back in the market. But that doesn’t mean they ALWAYS tell us everything they’re doing. You better believe there are routine inventions that occur when confidence doesn’t necessarily need boosting, but the market does.
I would say the mystery is over. The PPT is real — no matter who it’s actually called — and sometimes its actions are benign — maybe a couple of phone calls from on high to the IBs and — presto — the Dow inexplicably rallies. This explains a lot of the strange moves we’ve seen over the past several years.
– Judge Smales
“You’ll get nothing and like it”
Would you prefer a totally disorderly panic and crash? I’m a bear and I wouldn’t. I prefer to have someone to sell my puts to.
I don’t think the Judge was making a normative judgment — he was just describing the status quo.
Exactly, Prof. I wasn’t taking any kind of bull/bear stand. I don’t have a penny’s worth of exposure to the stock market, and truthfully I wouldn’t know a put from a call from an option. It’s all greek to me.
All’s I’m sayin’: the once-a-week friendly arguments on this blog about the PPT’s existence have been solved. It’s pretty clear it exists in some form or another, for better or worse, bull or bear, inflation or deflation.
And here’s the worst part: when the PPT decides to start yanking on strings (or pushing on them), they don’t tell me or you in advance. It’s an insider’s game, and I don’t play rigged games. I live in Las Vegas, and I know a little bit about staying away from making bad bets with incomplete information.
– Judge Smales
“You’ll get nothing and like it”
“It’s all greek to me.”
…and you claim to know nothing about options .
Well played, Just say no.
– Judge Smales
“How ’bout a Fresca?”
“How’d you like to mow my lawn?”
lol
“Would you prefer a totally disorderly panic and crash?”
I would.
In the long run I believe crashes are a good thing.
We learn a lot from crashes. I don’t mean “how to avoid crashes” but we learn:
- the nature of risk vs. reward
- why it’s important not to invest in something just because everyone else is
- not to tie up all our resources in monetary investments
- how to survive, and thrive, on less $$ and material goods
- the importance strong family and community relationships
Yes there are the obvious downsides to crashes - lots of stress, suicides, finger-pointing, etc. But I think in the long run we’re better off, rather than artificially avoiding or softening them.
“and I don’t play rigged games.”
Tom Sawyer: “Not just anyone can paint a fence…no sireeee…”
Can’t resist:
Tom Sawyer speaking:
“Ben, I’d like to, honest injun; but Aunt Polly — well, Jim wanted to do it, but she wouldn’t let him; Sid wanted to do it, and she wouldn’t let Sid. Now don’t you see how I’m fixed? If you was to tackle this fence and anything was to happen to it –”
“Oh, shucks, I’ll be just as careful. Now lemme try. Say — I’ll give you the core of my apple.”
“Well, here — No, Ben, now don’t. I’m afeard –”
“I’ll give you all of it!”
Tom gave up the brush with reluctance in his face, but alacrity in his heart. And while the late steamer Big Missouri worked and sweated in the sun, the retired artist sat on a barrel in the shade close by, dangled his legs, munched his apple, and planned the slaughter of more innocents. There was no lack of material; boys happened along every little while; they came to jeer, but remained to whitewash. By the time Ben was fagged out, Tom had traded the next chance to Billy Fisher for a kite, in good repair; and when he played out, Johnny Miller bought in for a dead rat and a string to swing it with — and so on, and so on, hour after hour. And when the middle of the afternoon came, from being a poor poverty-stricken boy in the morning, Tom was literally rolling in wealth. He had besides the things before mentioned, twelve marbles, part of a jews-harp, a piece of blue bottle-glass to look through, a spool cannon, a key that wouldn’t unlock anything, a fragment of chalk, a glass stopper of a decanter, a tin soldier, a couple of tadpoles, six fire-crackers, a kitten with only one eye, a brass doorknob, a dog-collar — but no dog — the handle of a knife, four pieces of orange-peel, and a dilapidated old window sash.
He had had a nice, good, idle time all the while — plenty of company — and the fence had three coats of whitewash on it! If he hadn’t run out of whitewash he would have bankrupted every boy in the village.
Tom said to himself that it was not such a hollow world, after all. He had discovered a great law of human action, without knowing it — namely, that in order to make a man or a boy covet a thing, it is only necessary to make the thing difficult to attain….
Chapter 2:
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rgs/sawyr-II.html
The FED already knew way back when, that many things would reach a crescendo and break down. The FED put out warnings starting with Greenspans Fedspeak. If the warnings had been stated in plain english for the masses to understand, things would have started to fall apart in two seconds after that.
“But that doesn’t mean they ALWAYS tell us everything they’re doing. You better believe there are routine inventions that occur when confidence doesn’t necessarily need boosting, but the market does.”
This is what I believe presently occurs on a routine basis: The right hand takes a highly publicized action (e.g., pumps in liquidity) and the left hand pulls a lever behind the curtain to confirm the success of the right hand’s confidence booster (e.g., exercises the Greenspan-Bernanke put).
As long as the stock market goes up, the MSM concludes that all is well, since the stock market could only go up if investers were confident, and confidence is always good without qualification.
nvestor faith buoyed by banks’ borrowing
By Madlen Read
ASSOCIATED PRESS
August 23, 2007
* Accredited cutting 1,600 jobs
* Bank of America buoys Countrywide
NEW YORK – Wall Street showed nascent confidence in the credit markets yesterday, surging higher in response to a pullback in Treasuries and an increase in borrowing by banks. Investors saw both trends as signs that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to loosen up the credit market might be working.
The Dow Jones industrial average soared more than 140 points as the 3-month Treasury bill, which earlier in the week drew massive buying as investors sought the safety of short-term government assets, fell yesterday. The selling boosted its yield to 3.66 percent, up from 3.59 percent late Tuesday and Monday’s low of 2.51 percent – an indication that stocks are no longer seen to be as risky as they were just a few days ago.
“It gives the market a little comfort that it’s not all about buying risk-free securities,” said Scott Wren, equity strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons. “There’s less of a flight to quality. . . . In my mind, the pullback in the stock market is entirely due to what’s going on in the credit market. The fundamentals have been good. Valuations are reasonable. It’s just the fear of the unknown in terms of the credit market.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070823/news_1n23market.html
Here is a little tidbit from a Jim Willie post over at http://www.goldseek.com
The USFed finds itself witnessing the early stages of global boycott, and perhaps domestic avoidance. Here is a quote from my friend and colleague Rob Kirby, a super sleuth financial investigator of high order. “The Treasury’s $32 billion four-week bill auction was the largest since at least July 2001. The bills were sold at a high discount rate of 4.75 percent. The yields on one-month bills fell as low as 1.272 percent yesterday, and were trading at about 2.6 percent prior to the auction. In a sign of weak demand, the government received bids for the bills equal to 1.11 times the amount sold, the lowest since at least July 2001. I have NEVER, EVER seen a bid to cover ratio this low, especially in the T-Bill Market. The fact that demand for 4 WEEK BILLS was this weak raises SERIOUS QUESTIONS as to how they are EVER going to be able to issue 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, or 30 year bonds! The air is thick with scent of future monetizations.” My impression is that, folks, this is desperation slowly sinking in. US$-based toxicity is being recognized!!! The last resort will be USFed and Dept Treasury money printing and rampant purchase of US$-based securities, not just USTreasurys.
Check out that bid to cover ratio! WOW.
Maybe it is just that everyone knows the credit crunch is going to last a lot longer than 4 weeks and they want 3 or 6 months of security? So the bids for 4 weeks are weak and we get an inverted yield curve again…
auger-inn
That writer got things exactly wrong. The Fed and the Treasury deliberately sabotaged the auction to give the false impression that money was flowing back into risk assets. The Fed cut its minimum borrowing fee in half, thus making it much cheaper for banks to borrow treasuries from the Fed, typically via reverse repo. They basically dumped a huge supply on the market, saturating demand.
Then on top of that, the Treasury increased the size of the auction by $5 billion. More excess supply being dumped on the market. There is huge demand for treasuries but the PPT dumped an even large amount of supply (potentially the Fed’s entire holdings). Given that, the prevailing attitude was “Why buy when I can rent?” Something that HBBers should understand and admire.
“The Fed and the Treasury deliberately sabotaged the auction to give the false impression that money was flowing back into risk assets. The Fed cut its minimum borrowing fee in half, thus making it much cheaper for banks to borrow treasuries from the Fed, typically via reverse repo. They basically dumped a huge supply on the market, saturating demand.
Then on top of that, the Treasury increased the size of the auction by $5 billion. More excess supply being dumped on the market.”
This kind of intervention is what I call “lefthanded” (aka sinister) in my post above, as it helps confirm that the publicly-visible righthanded stabilization measures are working well.
Agreed, PB. The stock market will get creamed because the measures being taken will only serve to keep the banks from going under. It will NOT prevent everyone from taking losses all around.
Should have added:
By the bulls realize what the left hand was up to, it will be too late for them to sell out.
Apologies if this has already been posted:
http://clipsyndicate.com/publish/video/376129?cpt=3&wpid=99
That is an excellent video. You will never see that on CNBC. The Cayahoga County Treasurer basically blasted everybody including appraiser, lenders and Wall Street. Sad that he is predicting a 50% foreclosure rate for loans made in the last couple of years. Lots of fraud there.
Great video! Thanks for posting.
Any bets if Argent Mortgage will respond as requested
at end of the piece?
We’re shorting a few spys here in the premarket and going out for a bagel. LOL
What’s your take on that big deep ITM SPY action yesterday? Lot of guys thought they were errors but turns out they were for real.
Govt. of China supposedly.
Look at them again today.
I’m not sure what it means but the put volume as well as the call options have gone crazy today.
I just got back from a week in the Carolinas. I flew into Charlette and drove to Columbia and Charleston. It was interesting to see housing from the air when landing. Just parts of the forest cleared and boxes inserted in very close proximity. It looked ugly from the air. Later I drove out to a restaurant (sonny’s) in Concord and saw some of the housing in that area. They were nothing but two story big boxes that were ugly. Nothing but dying grass around them (no flowers, shrubs, etc) and one was an exact copy of the next. In Columbia the older areas had some nice looking houses but in the Irmo area I was not impressed. The traffic in the Irmo area on Saturday aped that of LA or SF only it was not equipped to handle the flow. The mall was packed with back to school shoppers in the kiddie stores and the food courts but the other stores weren’t selling much. I loved the housing in the city proper of Charleston but the downtown area sucked. Perhaps my biggest disappointment was the food. For someone who loves quality eating I didn’t find anything to write home about; on the other hand the locals were friendly and the first thing you notice when landing is the laid back atmosphere of the local culture, which was quickly lost in the area of Concord and Irmo.
So the newer tracts were pretty much like everywhere else in terms of no character and all looks alike. Too bad to hear that.
As mortgage industry retrenches, industry job cuts surpass 40,000
By Ieva M. Augstums
ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:28 p.m. August 22, 2007
CHARLOTTE, N.C. – At the North Carolina offices of mortgage lender HomeBanc Corp., Archie Clark is the only employee left. But in a few days, he’ll be gone, too.
“It’s pretty much a ghost town over there,” Clark said. “Somebody went in and took the furniture from the lobby. I don’t know who did that. I put some of the other stuff in the back and locked it up.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070822-1428-mortgagemess-jobs.html
Would someone check my logic please?
If the credit markets went haywire because nobody wanted to buy MBS that isn’t backed by Fannie Mae and Fannie Mae cancelled their upcoming auction because there wasn’t enough interest in MBS that was backed by Fannie Mae, why would removing caps on Fannie Mae purchases do anything useful in the markets?
You’re good, it does not make sense especially in light of the fact that even if its a conforming loan packagd into an MBS by Fannie/Freddie etc they ARE NOT backed by full faith & credit of the US Government, therefore they are no safer than any other MBS. The only thing the cap does is minimize the pain of any losses.
That has yet to be tested… There is an implication that they are backed by the govenment…. Or maybe just inferred… No one is sure, I donbt even the govt.
“…why would removing caps on Fannie Mae purchases do anything useful in the markets?”
As of now, FNM and FRE cannot buy mortgages above the $417K conforming limit, which pretty much leaves bubble market SFR prices on both coasts hanging over the edge of the cliff in the wake of the credit crunch (think coyote in the old roadrunner cartoons). My guess is the PPT is already taking unannounced measures to replace vanishing private funding in this segment of the market, but if FNM and FRE were enabled to step up to the plate and buy at this price range, it would be much easier to prop up bubble prices on a permanently high plateau.
The great perversity here is that FNM and FRE supposedly exist to make housing more affordable, but the market-distorting effect of raising the conforming limit would be the exact opposite. However, it would serve Senator Dodd’s East Coast hedge fund and banking industry constituents quite well to keep most of California priced out forever. Never mind the devastating effect on the California economy of no young blood flowing through the veins of its workforce, or the little problem of tempting lots more low income households to destroy their financial futures by purchasing homes they cannot afford — it is all about protecting Senator Dodd’s big money interests.
I was under the impression that the effort was aimed at allowing FNM and FRE to purchase more conforming loans, not to expand the criteria for conforming. To me, expanding the criteria introduces even more problems.
The housing market is deflating, which means that otherwise healthy jumbo borrowers may end up upside down which to me would increase the risk of default. Allowing a tiny bit of toxicity into the mortgages that FNM and FRE package up and sell lowers the attractiveness of the whole pool.
It seems to me that to ease the credit crunch, we need to be taking actions that increase the confidence in the securities FNM and FRE want to sell. Therefore, FNM and FRE should be taking highly publicized steps to make it harder for a mortgage originator to sell them a potentially bad loan.
The perception of safety (perhaps not the reality) is what keeps people invested in Treasuries in times like these. That same perception of safety is what FNM and FRE need to be aiming for.
“…not to expand the criteria for conforming.”
I defer to the Congressional Quarterly for clarification on Dodd’s position.
Dodd said he was “not opposed” to passing legislation to raise the conforming loan limit, currently set at $417,000, on the size of mortgages that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can purchase. Many would-be homebuyers around the country — particularly in high-cost areas — are finding it difficult and costly to obtain mortgages in excess of that amount.
But legislative action would take weeks, if not months, and Dodd said the current situation is too volatile to wait. Lifting the portfolio limits for conforming loans, a step that does not require legislation, would get more liquidity into the housing market faster, he argued.
“This would have a positive effect on dampening down interest rate hikes within the conforming loan limits,” he said. But he said that Paulson “indicated they were not likely to move in that direction.”
Treasury officials and staff have argued that raising the caps would have little impact on the more troubled areas of the mortgage market because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not allowed to purchase non-conforming loans. But a Dodd staff member said that argument ignores the fact that allowing the firms to buy up more conforming loans would inject billions of dollars of much-needed liquidity into the market that could then be used by lenders to staunch the credit crisis.
http://public.cq.com/docs/cqt/news110-000002573582.html
I have a great suggestion. Since money flows freely through the streets of Manhattan and Greenwich, how about if Dodd gets his investment banker and hedge fund constituents to put together a little fund to help stave off foreclosures in areas Dodd is worried about? That way, the people who brought us the foreclosure crisis would get the opportunity to pay for it, which would be economically just. Passing the foreclosure avoidance bill on to the taxpayer in the form of current unaffordable housing prices and future FNM/FRE bailout costs is just wrong.
But if we do anything to stave off foreclosures, anything at all, then housing will remain unaffordable longer. Paulson and Bush have both said that they will not allow Fannie or Freddie to increase their portfolios or jumbo limits. That is a good thing. All this Dodd nonsense is just lip service from a guy who will never be President.
Professor
I thought the caps that might be lifted are the limits on total MBS they can hold in their portfolios, not the size of individual mortgages. Now the coastal delegations in Congress are screaming for exactly what you mentioned. I doubt that has any chance of passing in time to prevent a serious meltdown and is unlikely to pass at all since there is NO sympathy for that position here in flyover country.
Accredited cutting 1,600 jobs
S.D. lender also says no to new mortgages until market improves
By Mike Freeman
STAFF WRITER
August 23, 2007
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070823/news_1b23lenders.html
I posted this last night, I happen to know and enjoy being with Mr. Gross. I personally think this is ludicrous. I have to wonder whether it is Mr. Gross writing or if it is his positions.
PIMCO
“…The ultimate solution, it seems to me, must not emanate from the bowels of Fed headquarters on Constitution Avenue, but from the West Wing of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Fiscal, not monetary policy should be the preferred remedy, one scaling Rooseveltian proportions emblematic of the RFC, or perhaps to be more current, the RTC in the early 1990s when the government absorbed the bad debts of the failing savings and loan industry. Why is it possible to rescue corrupt S&L buccaneers in the early 1990s and provide guidance to levered Wall Street investment bankers during the 1998 LTCM crisis, yet throw 2,000,000 homeowners to the wolves in 2007? If we can bail out Chrysler, why can’t we support the American homeowner? The time has come to acknowledge that there are precedents aplenty in the long and even recent history of American policy making. This rescue, which admittedly might bail out speculators who deserve much worse, would support millions of hard working Americans whose recent hours have become ones of frantic desperation. And for those who would still have them eat some Wall Street cake as opposed to Midwest meat & potatoes (The Wall Street Journal editorial page suggested they should get darn good and used to renting once again) look at it this way: your stocks and risk-oriented levered investments will spring to life like the wild flowers in Death Valley after a flash flood. And if you’re a Republican office holder, you’d win a new constituency of voters – “almost homeless homeowners” – for generations to come. Get with it Mr. President and Mr. Treasury Secretary. This is your moment to one-up Barney Frank and the Democrats. Reestablish not the RFC or the RTC, but create an RMC –Reconstruction Mortgage Corporation. If not, make some modifications in the existing FHA program, long discarded as ineffective. Write some checks, bail ‘em out, prevent a destructive housing deflation that Ben Bernanke is unable to do. After all “W”, you’re “the Decider,” aren’t you?”
William H. Gross
Managing Director
http://tinyurl.com/ytyfpf
Sounds tongue in cheek - or at least I hope it is.
Doesn’t sound tongue in cheek to me. Sounds like someone who has too many mortgage securities in his portfolio and wants a bailout.
Everyone here is strangely silent in delivering a swift kick in the ass to Mr. Gross. What’s wrong with you people??
It seems to me that Gross wants to have his cake and eat it too. Lower the Fed funds rate = higher bond prices. A government bailout for 2 million FB’s prevents an epic bond market crash caused by an epic real estate bubble and crash.
It’s also an admission that this credit crisis is, in fact, an insolvency crisis. Do you see why CFC is being ‘absorbed’ and why a housing bailout might be forthcoming?
This is why Bill Gross is literally screaming for help:
Black Monday ‘07
By Adrian Ash
BullionVault
August 22, 2007
Monday this week marked the biggest move in US bond yields since Black Monday two decades ago…
http://www.biiwii.com/bv2/ash65.htm
Everyone here is strangely silent in delivering a swift kick in the ass to Mr. Gross. What’s wrong with you people??
I won’t be silent. I’m upset! This is another major cry for taxpayer bailouts. Funny how Mr. Gross does not have any respect for responsible savers who did not get greedy and stayed out of RE in the last 5 years. It will be punishment for us savers for being responsible, as the government will hold a gun against us to give to the irresponsible, once again.
Very disgusting, those economic socialists.
When was the last time the GOP won over a “downtrodden” constituency by bailing them out?
Reagan amnesty didn’t do it, and it was arguably the most far reaching social benefit to hispanics and other immigrants ever.
I have to call b.s. on the FHA is dead claim. If it weren’t for his (Gross’) Wall Street friends providing easy money, then home prices wouldn’t have gone up beyond the realm of FHA financing. FHA does what it is supposed to do, provide financing for the majority of homes in a metropolitan stat area (MSA). If prices came back to reality, FHA financing would cover most homes in most areas like it always has.
Beautiful comparison of ’ssshrubery to Herbert Hoover…
It took the republicans 20 long years to re-claim the presidency, after that disaster~
Gross is just eggin’ him on to be a man of action…
Go ahead, give em’ a bailout, make my day, kinda gibberish…
What Gross wants is something he will never get. Bush will never bail out FBs, and neither will Paulson or Bernanke. Neither will the FHA, since they already refused to increase Fannie and Freddie’s portfolio caps.
Any bailout that occurs will be in the form of helping BANKS, not FBs.
Past-due mortgages swamp banks, thrifts
Biggest increase in late loans since ‘90
By Alison Vekshin
BLOOMBERG NEWS
August 23, 2007
U.S. banks and thrifts suffered the biggest increase in late loan payments in 17 years as more homeowners fell behind on mortgages, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said yesterday.
Loans more than 90 days past due rose 10.6 percent to $66.9 billion in the period ending June 30, the largest quarterly increase since 1990, the FDIC said in its Quarterly Banking Profile.
“The bottom line for banks is that the credit environment continues to be more challenging now than it has been in recent years,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said during a news briefing at the agency’s Washington headquarters.
The report reflects the growing strain lenders are facing as the collapse of the subprime mortgage market roils the banking industry. At least 90 U.S. mortgage companies have halted operations or sought buyers since the start of 2006, according to Bloomberg data.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070823/news_1b23late.html
“…To be sure, more evidence is needed to make an open-and-shut case that the Fed has changed its spots. If weakness start to show up in the real economy, the Fed could revert to the laxity of the Greenspan years in a flash. Bernanke is no Paul Volcker, whose anti-inflation bias led him to hike rates to recession-causing levels in the 1980s. However, Northern Trust’s Kasriel does think the Fed would tolerate some economic sluggishness if it brings some stability back into the economy. “I don’t think the Fed would welcome a recession, but I think it would be okay with some below potential growth,” he says.
After nearly 20 years at the helm of the Fed, Greenspan left the U.S. economy more vulnerable to credit shocks than it has ever been. It will take Bernanke 20 years to undo that mess…”
Fortune CNN Money
http://tinyurl.com/yuaovm
“It will take Bernanke 20 years to undo that mess…”
It won’t take the “markets” more than 5 days…and that includes a weekend.
Wall Street bungee jumping…
http://www.marketwatch.com/Quotes/?symb=comp
Since the stock market climbs a wall of worry, there ought to be a massive rally today…
DAVID CALLAWAY
Four little piggies went to market
Commentary: Money banks aren’t fooling anybody
By David Callaway, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:51 PM ET Aug 22, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The decision by four money center banks to tap the Federal Reserve for $2 billion to pry open the lending spigots of the U.S. financial system was seen in some quarters Wednesday as a turning point in the four-week old credit crisis.
It was. But unfortunately the point turned from denial to full-fledged fear.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/four-little-piggies-went-market/story.aspx?guid=%7B272C65C4%2D63D8%2D4B2E%2D8094%2DD593B23BF1EB%7D
“Those in possession of absolute power can not only prophesy and make their prophecies come true, but they can also lie and make their lies come true.”
Eric Hoffer…The True Believer
The book THE TRUE BELIEVER is a must read . The author talks alot about brainwashing and how people in power create a cause for people to fight against to keep them distracted ,while they are ripped off by the money people . I read the book 40 years ago but I still remember it was a great book . It’s a little green book , not that thick .
–
Yes, America is indeed a nation of True Believers. In democracy, in free markets, in freedom and equality. All the while, reality doesn’t match the beliefs.
Blind faiths and false beliefs are staples of mankind.
Jas
“Most propaganda is not designed to fool the critical thinker
but only to give moral cowards an excuse not to think at all.” - Michael Rivero
Soaring number of student loans leads to fears of market collapse
“WASHINGTON (Map, News) - The number of Maryland college students taking out private loans has ballooned more than 600 percent between fiscal year 2000 and 2005, creating fears among financial experts that student loans could collapse in the same way as the subprime mortgage market.”
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2ctetw
Although private loans are not, at least there is a government guarantee for the other loans. My and my wife’s loans are incredibly affordable, however. We consolidated them in 2005 when fixed rates were around 3%. After 3-4 years of on-time payments and setting up automatic withdrawals we get concessions of around 2%. What a great deal, long-term loans with 1% rate!
Yet another downside to the housing bubble - might this be in some FBs’ futures?
http://tinyurl.com/3yj9mx
(bold emphasis mine)
That’s what he gets for exposing himself to his roommate.
How many of you are going to Burning Man?
Why does it not surprise me that you would be going to Burning Man?
Me!! Me!!
(waves hand in air)
Going on sunday - beware - there’s been dust storms there for the last 4 days.
Welcome Home…
Central Bank Impotence and Market LiquidityBy Henry C.K. Liu, August 22, 2007
————–
In depth discussion of discount window lending and the liquidity crunch.
“Interbank payments are processed over Fedwire, the large-value payment system owned and operated by the Fed. The value of aggregate Fedwire payments increased from roughly $1.3 trillion a day in 1992 to roughly $3 trillion a day in early 2004. These payments are funded from an aggregate reserve balance that, as of the first quarter of 2004, averaged only $11.5 billion.“
So they Fed is wiring 3 trillion dollars a day but only has 11.5 billion in reserves at anyone time.
Please explain….is this like writing checks for money that you do not have or is it just more electronic funny money created in the wires…??
thats fractional reserve banking : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking
“Fractional-reserve banking refers to the common banking practice of issuing more money than the bank holds as reserves. Banks in modern economies typically loan their customers many times the sum of the cash reserves that they hold.”
This is how our monetary system works. It depends heavily on trust and confidence, which is why the crisis blew up so fast and why the Fed is so worried now.
Go team! Yeah!
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/BAC-CFC-GS-JPM-C-WB/index/a/13838
The last sentence: “But the smoke is getting thicker by the minute.”
“…and then it went dark”
http://www.readexpress.com/pollcenter.php
poll question at Washington Post’s free daily on whether or not there should be a bailout of the mortgage industry… i’m not one to spam polls but this one’s screaming for attention.
They list the results according to metro stations. In some bubbly areas, a much higher percentage voted “yes for bailout”.
Sure, but it’s still an overwhelming “NO” overall.
On Minyanville, Succo says that BAC is precluded from shorting CFC stock for 18 months.
Like that will stop anything
LOL.
Tx, no sly sinks allowed. You are dealing with ethical, responsible banks.
Trust me! (yiddish)
Didn’t BAC get convertible preferred so that at the $18 or less level their percentage share of CFC increases almost three fold while the preferred position puts them in first position in BK over the rest of the common stock shareholders?
Preferred position over common shareholders, not over bond holders. If CFC were to go BK, likely no monies to BAC.
Lousy construction in the bubble adding to housing crisis.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20393984/
In a housing market class in city planning school in the mid-1980s, I was given a table of housing completions by year going back to the turn of the century, and warned not to buy a house built in a boom year. I was also told about housing cost/income ratios and cycles. Thanks Prof. Jim Hughes of Rutgers.
Duh. That’s just plain common sense.
When I look at houses, I’m looking for stuff built in the 1940s to about 1975 and nothing younger than that, unless it was custom built. The junk they throw up today is shameful.
That’s precisely why I bought a 1956 model. It has some miles on it, but it’s still a sound house.
Fraud and bubbles
Go habd in hand with love and troubles
Jas
This was in the Morning Journal in Columbiana County in NE Ohio
9 indicted in mortgage fraud scheme
COLUMBUS - Nine people have been accused in a $25 million mortgage fraud scheme in which the value of more than 500 real estate properties in central Ohio was exaggerated to mortgage lenders and to prospective buyers. The nine recruited inexperienced buyers, counting on their relative ignorance with real estate to hide the scheme, according to the indictment by the federal grand jury. The defendents are accused of using faudulent documents to misrepresent the buyers’ credit to lending institutions and then obtaining mortgages secured by the inflated value of the properties. Potential buyers were told they could buy property with no money down and that they wouldn’t be responsible for monthly payments or repairs, according to prosecutors. The nine would then take the money and leave the buyer owing more than the property was worth.
Ohio is cracking down big time. I hope other states follow suit. This kind of fraud deserves jail time. Also this tells all of us why some people are not qualified to be home owners. They had to have some pretty dumb people to pull this one off.
I am not in front of a TV, can someone give us a play-by-play of what the Tan Man is saying??
CFC is stronger today than it was a few weeks ago
Win-win for both
Merrill analyst was irresponsible saying “bankruptcy.” No chance now, wasn’t any chance 6 months ago
Tremendous liquidity problem, worst panic in 55 years, housing mess will lead to recession.
If anyone is able it would be very much appreciated.
The only cool thing I have come across is that Bronzilla made a recession call on national television which sank the market today. LMAO.
Leatherman, MelanomaMan, Bronzilla….. it’s all good!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=481763309&play=1
Tan Man video
Mucho Grassyass.
Mammie … how I love ya How I love ya My dear old Mammie . . .
Apparently, this organization is providing fixed financing at 5.75% for 30 years for those who have credit scores below 600 and have been “victimized” by subprime lenders.
Nice to know that people who have a proven track record of being irresponsible with paying their bills get a far lower interest rate than those who have proven fiscally sound.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/23/real_estate/subprime_help/index.htm?postversion=2007082311
It looks like responsible people who didn’t get into toxic loans were fools !.
IF they buy now they need a down payment, closing costs and must pay much higher interest rates. There is no reward for them.
Those who wanted a get rich quick scheme are getting a tax payer bail out. From Banks to buyers
Disgusting!
Plus the more loans they ” re-work” the less chance of home prices coming down to where responsible people can afford them.
All I can do is continue my boycott, even it it means I never buy a home again .
Even if they re-write some loans ,there are so many loans they can’t re-write that the prices will come down anyway .So many of those loans made between 2004 and 2007 were just just bad loans you could never refinance ,especially in a declining market .
Some stuff I sent out to my investment contacts this morning. Hope you find it useful:
—————–
This article give us some idea of the scale of contraction here. In the week from 8/15 to yesterday, $90 billion of commercial paper disappeared. Looks like it matured and couldn’t get refunded. Now, some of that will be made up with bank loans but there is no way that they can extend an additional $90 billion at this time. Nor should they, especially when a good chunk of the ABS CP was buying risky assets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEIjZBgPR2ZI&refer=home
H&R Block walked away from the CP markets yesterday since they “have become increasingly constrained and unstable.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFyTHOPzomDA
When I hear the talking heads saying the credit crunch is easing, I wonder if they have any clue what they are talking about. The ECB just went to 90 day emergency loans and the Fed to 30 day loans. Large segments of the CP market have virtually shut down and banks can’t make up the difference ($90 billion and counting). Don’t forget that they are still on the hook for $300 billion in buyout funding they’ve committed to. Junk bonds look to have stablized for now but that’s largely because there’s been no new supply for weeks. Let’s see what happens if any of the banks try to place some big M&A loans in the form of either junk issuance of loan syndication.
Then there is THE DEADLINE. We have very little information on the total redemptions sought from hedge funds overall but we do know that there have been big requests from some troubled high-profile funds. Goldman’s big kahuna hedge fund apparently has been hit with nearly $2 billion in redemptions, payable on September 30. Repeated many times across the industry (though on a smaller scale) and have a massive wave of mandatory asset sales coming. Add some additional sales as the funds (and prop trading desks) delever their remaining capital in the higher risk environment. This is the real reason that every rally will be sold for the next month.
Timing and market pressures are now setting up perfectly for a classic Fall beatdown in risk assets.
Fall beatdown. Yessir. Remember in ‘87 the market rallied on and off in the late summer and fall before finally crashing.
That last paragraph cannot be overemphasized. That’s tradeable material folks.
I don’t have the balls to be a short trader — if I did I would have done it in 2000, when the market was far more over-priced than this.
But I am looking for a reasonably-priced entry point, based on a decent PE for average (not bubble level) earnings. Think I’ll get it? We’ll need to get the excess valuation out of financials before I can add to my index fund.
TX, in case you missed:
Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: SUNW - News) today announced that it will change its Nasdaq stock ticker symbol from SUNW to JAVA, the ubiquitous technology and brand it created in 1995. The stock ticker change will go into effect for the trading community on Monday, August 27, 2007.
This may be good for a couple of penny pop.
Yeah, I saw that. I’m going to take my profit when it hits 5 probably.
Not only 1987. Similar action in the 3rd quarter of 1998 as well. The young bulls I know cite these as examples of great buying opportunities (not that they’ll have any cash since they’re not selling now). They may be right but I doubt it. In those prior cases, the economy was growing very rapidly (roughly 5% GDP) vs slowing with a possible plunge today. In either case, I will have plenty of cash at the bottom - whenever that is. Nice thing about short positions is that they are partially self-liquidating if you get it right.
“When I hear the talking heads saying the credit crunch is easing, I wonder if they have any clue what they are talking about.”
If these guys were medical doctors, they would interpret the bounce off the floor of a heart patient to whom electrodes were just administered as a conclusive sign of full recovery.
“Man has such a predilection for systems and abstract deductions that he is ready to distort the truth intentionally, he is ready to deny the evidence of his senses only to justify his logic”
Fyodor Dostoyevsky
kind of like my two year old, when i stop and think about it.
“Man has such a predilection for systems and abstract deductions that he is ready to distort the truth intentionally, he is ready to deny the evidence of his senses only to justify his logic”
Put that along with the undercurrant of the market that we may be in a Minsky meltdown:“Man has such a predilection for systems and abstract deductions that he is ready to distort the truth intentionally, he is ready to deny the evidence of his senses only to justify his logic”
“How do these Minsky moments come to be, you may ask. The primary cause is optimism leading up to the “moment.” It’s this optimism that forces investors to chase higher returns, borrow more money, and become even more aggressive with their trading. Once a negative catalyst hits and pessimism sinks in, a small market downturn is compounded immensely by the leverage issues that come forth.
It’s interesting that Minsky’s theories, which are proving ever-so-true in recent times, were considered to be ridiculous and even bogus just fifteen years ago. “
I have a firm belief that the stock market will always do the most damage to the most amount of people.
Why the banks look good because they do not have to Mark to Market.
LBO deals on hold until 2008 as crunch worsens
“We’re in the midst of a major, major credit crunch,” said an investment banker at a large commercial bank that arranges and finances private equity deals.
“No LBOs as we’ve come to know them will be financed for the remainder of the year,” added the banker, who requested anonymity….
…The so-called commercial banks, which include competitors Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and UBS AG (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), are not under the same type of pressure. Their larger balance sheets give them more breathing room to hold onto the loans and wait for better market conditions.
They also have accounting rules in their favor, as commercial banks can account for their loans either as “available for sale” or “held to maturity,” under generally accepted accounting principles. Loans that are “available for sale” must be marked to market daily, but those under “held to maturity” do not….
Reuters
http://tinyurl.com/2y5xvf
Sorry if this was posted party people. OCR.
BNC shuts down; Impac cuts jobs
Two lenders in Irvine are rocked by credit turmoil. BNC Mortgage is closing, and Impac laying off workers.
http://tinyurl.com/yse9ao
It just gets better and better for the OC. Christmas at South Coast and Fashion Island may not be as merry as it has been for the past decade or so…
At least it won’t be as crowded…and maybe some good deals to be had…
Probably the only place that will be busy is the coffee shop where all the wanna-bes can afford something!
From the OCR Mortgage Insider.
IndyMac makes jumbo loans again, will hold them on its books
August 23rd, 2007
In all the craziness during black Wednesday, I missed this: Indymac Bancorp in Pasadena said it will resume making big prime loans, known as jumbo, after halting them amid a lack of investor appetite for the loans.
“Given our strong financial position, we are fully committed to the market for prime jumbo home loans,” said CEO Michael Perry, in a statement. “Until the secondary market recovers, we plan to retain this product in our investment portfolio at what we believe will be attractive returns.”
As a thrift, IndyMac can hold some jumbo loans on its books, but if the secondary market doesn’t return within a few months, I imagine IndyMac could begin bumping against its reserves.
The jumbo loans for more than $417,000 will only be offered to borrowers who fully verify their income. The loans will be fixed for five, seven, 15, or 30 years.
Perry is the goof-ball quoted last week in the LATimes, rushing to CFC to withdraw 500k and blaming it on his wife’s nervousness.
Now he’s back in the game, along with his pals at CFC.
Japan’s economy: still just as crazy as ever
Financial Times, 23.08.2007
“…But last week, the view from Tokyo was still distinctly odd. Part of the reason is that, while the rest of the world has been intoxicated with the sort of “sophisticated” investment vehicles that are now imploding, Japan’s conservative financial market has remained a risk-averse backwater. A benefit of not attending the party is not having to clear up afterwards.
It is true that did not prevent a spectacular slide in share prices. The Nikkei 225 plunged nearly 10 per cent last week as investors dumped liquid assets and export stocks that could be damaged by a rising yen. But one needed to look beyond equities to see just how much of an outlier Japan remains.
For example, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank were frantically pumping liquidity into their seized-up money markets, the Bank of Japan felt moved to siphon off Y2,000bn ($17.5bn, €13bn, L8.7bn) from a system still awash with funds. The bank had previously followed other central banks’ lead by making overnight liquidity available. But the result was a collapse of the call rate to 0.235 per cent, well below the BoJ’s 0.5 per cent target.
Consider also that, in the world outside Japan, bond analysts were slack-jawed at the sight of three-month US Treasury rates falling to just 3 per cent. In out-of-step Tokyo that is still exorbitant. Last week, the government was borrowing one-year money at just over 0.6 per cent….
…More broadly, it sees one of its functions as preventing the formation of bubbles of any sort. It still bears the psychological scars for failing to prevent the wild property speculation of the 1980s that proved so ruinous in the long run.
The BoJ’s desire to head off inflation well before it lumbers into sight is an implicit criticism of the Fed’s apparent tolerance for asset bubbles….”
The great circular ponzi scheme is closing. Did they really think risk dispersion dispersed the risk?
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) — Banks worldwide have $891 billion at risk in asset-backed commercial paper facilities because of credit agreements that ensure investors are paid back when the short-term debt matures, Fitch Ratings said.
The investment vehicles, which carry top credit ratings, sell debt that matures in one to 270 days and invest in longer-term securities with higher yields, Fitch said in a report. Some of those securities are subprime mortgage bonds, which have been losing value as default rise to the highest in 10 years….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akAl5IKh8kwQ
“On average, exposures are manageable,” said Ian Lennel, head of Europe, Middle East and Asian Bank Group at Fitch.
————–
Yes. And a frozen steak flash-seared at 1000 degrees is medium rare “on average.”
Maybe they should have actually hedged their risk instead of going balls out into subprime?
Turmoil throws hedge fund strategies awry
By Anuj Gangahar in New York
Published: August 23 2007 20:53 | Last updated: August 23 2007 20:53
Turmoil in financial markets has inflicted significant damage on the investment performance of some of the biggest names in the hedge fund sector, with data showing DE Shaw and Goldman Sachs continuing to suffer losses.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/750b10f0-51ae-11dc-8779-0000779fd2ac.html
Trouble brewing at Barclays according to the FT:
A senior official in charge of a structured finance team at Barclays Capital has resigned this week in the midst of turmoil triggered by the meltdown in the US subprime mortgage market.
Edward Cahill, a banker who ran the collateralised debt obligation division, which creates complex debt vehicles linked to assets such as subprime loans, left on Monday after returning from holiday….
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3cd48296-51b5-11dc-8779-0000779fd2ac.html
They’re leaking like SIV’s
Bernanke is getting plenty of unsolicited advice these days on the proper conduct of monetary policy.
Do not cut rates
Published: August 21 2007 19:20 | Last updated: August 21 2007 19:20
Credit fuels the modern economy, and if the dislocation in the money markets lasts another month or two, investment, consumption and growth in the real economy will suffer. Central banks must restore confidence, but rather than cut interest rates they should extend liquidity operations to longer maturities, more collateral and possibly even different counterparties.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d626b36-5012-11dc-a6b0-0000779fd2ac.html
Amazingly, as of just last week, some really smart people (and some not so smart ones — e.g. Corcoran) were still quite mystified about the bubble. I wonder if they will have changed their tune by next summer, when the pop of the credit bubble and its impact on the housing market is clearly visible through the rear view mirror?
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/15/freakonomics-quorum-is-it-time-to-believe-in-the-housing-bubble/
I posted this comment:
Um, it’s been obvious since 2003 that we were in a bubble, and it was obvious in 2005 that we were at the peak of the bubble. How can anyone deny something so OBVIOUS?
Some people clearly are just really, really STOOPID.
“Barbara Corcoran:
There’s a hell of a lot of noise out there right now that would scare anyone away from buying real estate. Not me. I’m yahoo-ing, low-bidding, and snatching up deals wherever I can find them. I understand the two big truths about real estate investing:
1. Everybody wants what everybody wants!
2. Nobody wants what nobody wants!
So until everyone else decides (always at the exact same moment in time) that the worst is over and it’s safe to invest, I’m grabbing as many over-priced, over-stuffed, and over-rated homes as I can get my greedy little hands on.”
“What has passed is already finished with. What I find more interesting is what is still to come.”
Emil Zatopek
anecdote from a Corcoran broker in NYC. June was a disaster, July was dead, 1st half of August slow, but things maybe picking up a bit, rentals and sales. However, things are up for cash only deals, not mortgages.
“According to placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas 40,000 workers have lost jobs at mortgage lending firms and another 20,000 jobs have been lost at construction companies.”
That’s a pretty unfortunate firm-name, relative to the times and heading into the Fall holiday buying season. No-ho-ho.
The Unreported Wall Street Bailout
…
It is not the Fed’s job to protect the financial industry from its own mistakes. As Greenspan and Bernanke said repeatedly in response to questions raised about first the stock bubble and now the housing bubble, the Fed can deal with the consequences of the collapse of financial bubbles. I’m skeptical about how well it will be able to deal with the consequences of the collapse of the housing bubble, but the Fed certainly has no business deliberately propping up financial bubbles so that more informed investors can recover from their mistakes. (In this respect, the Fed’s decision to encourage the use of mortgage backed securities as collateral on loans was completely improper. It should not have been giving its seal of approval to bad debt – I take back my earlier more benign view of this action.)
After having largely neglected to report on the growth of the housing bubble over the last five years, the media should start reporting on the losers in this bailout story. If the Fed can give the big Wall Street boys the opportunity to save themselves by unloading bad debt, then it just means that others will be the ones to eventually pay the price. The media should make it clear that bailing out Wall Street is not win-win; it is a win for Wall Street where some sucker down the road takes the hit.
–Dean Baker–
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=08&year=2007&base_name=the_unreported_wall_street_bai
“…the Fed’s decision to encourage the use of mortgage backed securities as collateral on loans was completely improper…”
Which brings me back to my earlier question about whether used toilet paper would also work as collateral?