August 31, 2007

A Very Exposed Time To Buy

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “When it comes to the slump in new homes, Myrtle Beach is getting hit much harder than any other metro area in the state. But, if you’re not a contractor or trying to sell your home, that news is really pretty good. The president of the Horry-Georgetown Home Builders Association said the Grand Strand housing market is just leveling out, after some big companies built homes like crazy for a couple of years.”

“‘Some of the bigger tract people did overbuild, but at the same time, the prognosis was really good,’ said Ralph Bussey. ‘So whether they knew it was being overbuilt or not, that’s not for me to say.’”

“The housing market appears to be in a free fall. Bill Henegar, a Blount County, TN home builder said, ‘We’re certainly seeing it here — the market is just flooded. Unfortunately, many of the people struggling with homes right now have interest-only and adjustable-rate loans. Many of those people should have never been given those loans in the first place.’”

“In Buffalo, NY, Carol Brent, staff attorney of Legal Services for the Elderly, says there are now 23,000 vacant homes, many of them emptied by foreclosure procedures.”

“James Kragenbring, senior investment officer at Advantus Capital Management, says the volume of subprime loans now being made is tiny compared with last year. And lenders are finding it tough to find buyers for the new loans in the secondary market. ‘To me, that makes the subprime market virtually nonexistent,’ he says. ‘It’s clear that in the future there will be different loan products and less leverage on the individual property.’”

“For the past two years, Pott County, KS, homeowners have seen property values jump between 20 and 25 percent or more. ‘I don’t think we’re going to see 20 percent increases like we have in the past,’ said appraiser Lois Schlegel. ‘Sale prices have been coming down. It’s not going to be such a crazy market like it’s been the last couple of years. I don’t think the bottom’s going to drop out.’”

“Consumers with a FICO score in the 640 range that once qualified for 100 percent financing and a decent interest rate will see that rate go up a quarter of a percent or so, said Mark Teteris, CEO of a residential mortgage lender in Bloomington, MN. Such borrowers should also expect to scrape together a down payment of at least 5 percent, he said.”

“Even if TopLine didn’t sell the loans and maintained an in-house portfolio of loans, general manager Mary Wetterlin said she doesn’t think she’d feel comfortable using her members’ money to fund loans that GSEs have decided aren’t desirable.”

“‘We just can’t help people, even if we wanted to,’ Wetterlin said. ‘I feel like I am sounding like Ebenezer Scrooge. On the one hand I don’t want to see these neighborhoods blow up and end up (with) rows of foreclosed homes. But it’s a struggle.’”

“As mainland firms close their mortgage companies, their local operations in Honolulu are left scrambling to find new financial backers for their loans.”

“Donald Lau, president-elect of the Hawaii Association of Mortgage Bankers, said there was no cause for panic here in the state.’I don’t think Hawaii is going to see a lot of foreclosures. In general, people with loans outstanding won’t be impacted as long as they make their payments and have jobs,’ said Lau.”

“Seattle-area home appreciation continued its long slide back to reality in June, according to data released Tuesday. Tim Hug and David Hofmann, who sold their San Francisco condo and closed on a Queen Anne townhouse in June, said the local market definitely was strong compared with the Bay Area’s.”

“‘We got out just in time,’ Hofmann said, noting that other sellers were having a harder time in San Francisco.”

“Coming from San Francisco, they expected Seattle to be more of a bargain, Hug said. ‘Seattle’s getting up there.’”

“Both Utah County and the state are leading the nation with double-digit gains in home prices, but those days may be numbered. According to Utah County Realtors, the number of homes available for purchase and under contract listing is up 51 percent to 5,182 units in July from a year ago, an all-time high since the group began tracking home values in 1995.”

“‘But we’ve definitely moved away from the sellers’ market,’ said Kevin Call, executive VP of the Utah County Association of Realtors. ‘We don’t have enough affordable inventory under the $250,000 price range. We expect that if the trend continues, there will be more price negotiation for homes over $400,000.’”

“Construction cranes and the shells of new buildings dot the downtown Austin skyline. But from Miami to Las Vegas, a real-estate slump has been dashing developers’ dreams.”

“Could downtown, where developers have more than 1,400 luxury condos under construction and nearly 3,200 planned for the next few years, end up with too many units and too few buyers? From 2000 to 2007, developers built 50 condos in downtown Austin priced at or above $1 million. About 40 sold, roughly six sales a year.”

“Three projects breaking ground this year, however, will add 567 luxury units by 2009 or 2010, many of them around $1 million. Currently, 72 condos are on the resale market downtown, with an average price of $691,000. Of those, eight are under contract, and 15 have sold in the past two months.”

“‘Today is just a very exposed time to buy a condominium unit and not expect to have the prices go down,’ said Jack Hazzard, who formed the Ontra Companies in the 1980s to dispose of distressed properties that were repossessed by more than 200 banks and savings and loans. As mortgage rates go up, ‘prices must come down, and the market could be affected dramatically.’”

“Sheridan Glen, a broker-manager of a residential and commercial brokerage firm, said it’s shortsighted to think a condo glut can’t happen in Austin. ‘You’re not insulated. Nobody is.’”

“Q: I’m sad to say that I’ve just canceled my daily delivery of the Sun-Sentinel after 21 years of loyal readership. It was a difficult decision for me as it was a pleasant morning ritual for me to read the news over a cup of tea. I realized that your newspaper has caused me great anxiety with your sensationalized version of the local news.”

“Can we put any more negative press on the front page about the housing market? Is it your business writer’s objective to send people off the edge and make buyers even more reluctant to buy? Does he froth at the mouth waiting for the monthly statistics to be released? What is the purpose of his venom-spewing articles taking over half the front page?”

“A: We always hate to hear of a cancellation, but I’m convinced the best way for all of us to deal with the current housing crisis is to stay well informed.”

“Everybody is impacted by this story. It is one of a number of pocketbook issues that affect readers directly, and they have an enormous appetite for information. So stories about the slump — just as stories a year ago about the red-hot housing market — are and will continue to be front page news.”




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78 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-08-31 15:12:21

Wow, what a week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this holiday weekend for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by Leighsong
2007-08-31 20:36:07

You are amazing Ben. Thank you for your insight and may you and yours have a wonderful holiday.

Graciously,
Leigh

 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2007-08-31 15:35:38

From 8/14/2007 to 8/28/2007, there were 13 homes sold in ZIP code 90274 for an average price of $1,790,462.

1) $1,401,000 on Addison Rd
2) $805,000 on Cottonwood Cir
3) $975,000 on Cottonwood Cir
4) $930,000 on Crest E Rd
5) $1,375,000 on Dapplegray Ln
6) $1,400,000 on Espinosa Cir
7) $1,350,000 on Palos Verdes N Dr
8) $1,520,000 on Palos Verdes W Dr
9) $1,015,000 on Rockbluff Dr
10) $3,600,000 on Rocky Point Rd
11) $2,080,000 on Shady Vista Rd
12) $2,325,000 on Via Valmonte
13) $4,500,000 on Via Victoria

home sales are not slowing and prices are still up there in 90274. And 12 of these are not very large or very far from their neighbors.

Comment by Shannon
2007-08-31 15:51:32

ouch! That’s gonna hurt.

 
Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-08-31 17:31:45

Maybe 5% of Americans have money to throw around. The other 95% cannot afford anything close to that.

 
Comment by Sensible Lender
2007-08-31 18:14:19

Overall, selling prices on the hill are about 10% below their peak of a year ago. If priced right, meaning significantly below the competition, you can get multiple offers, as I have seen this week. I would say that inventory is increasing and sales are slowing in 90274&5.

 
Comment by SoBay
2007-08-31 18:39:36

We do a lot of work in this area and we have designed custom cabinets for homes on every street listed.
- Business is still very good for us and we have not seen a drop off at all. None of our clients are in there 20’s…they start around there late 30’s.
A couple came in our showroom (Redondo Beach) yesterday, they moved here from England and closed on a house with a 15 day escrow. They need new cabinets for the house now! Their zip is 90274.

 
Comment by tbgpalisades
2007-08-31 19:13:24

Just when I was hoping for brighter news here in the Palisades, see that two homes that were recently up for $1.5MM+ are both in escrow. For good news, there is clearly more inventory and the realtors have downsized, leaving some vacant storefront office space.

 
Comment by bozonian
2007-08-31 23:16:10

Wow. That area used to be 3 million+ !!

 
Comment by Tokyo Renter Ex Culver City Renter
2007-09-01 01:44:42

A co-worker of mine here in Tokyo is considering returning to the states and he asked about Palos Verdes . I told him it’s a nice area, but pricey. In his research he found a web site that listed houses that being foreclosed on in the peninsula. He gets several listings a day, he’s surprised that there are so many.

So on the one hand a lot of rich people (from England ?) buying up million dollar houses that cost 30k 36 years ago. They must of not made their money in finance.

 
 
Comment by rala2
2007-08-31 15:44:53

“Is it your business writer’s objective to send people off the edge and make buyers even more reluctant to buy?”

So, what kind of objective, unbiased concerned citizen wrote this letter to the editor? Realtor, mortgage broker, RE speculator?

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2007-08-31 18:57:00

Citizen Michele is, among other things, a licensed real estate agent. 954 area code. That’s in or near Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Comment by kpom
2007-08-31 20:43:32

She is a Realtor - big surprise!

 
Comment by Gatorfan
2007-08-31 22:24:18

She’s also a personal assistant:

http://www.eliteforservice.com/about_me.html

Comment by Mike in Pacific Beach
2007-08-31 22:50:29

I’m sure she wrote to them and asked them to “tone it down” when they were reporting sky rocketing home prices…. not.

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Comment by KayLaw
2007-08-31 15:48:07

The letter to the editor was interesting - I’m glad the paper refuses to ignore HB stories. Sometimes I wonder which source to trust.

Does anyone have any advice about real estate books or online sources of information? I’m going to be a buyer someday, and possibly a landlord, and I really want to know what I’m doing.

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-08-31 16:53:01

you can’t get a better education anywhere than on this blog - stay tuned

Comment by Vermonter
2007-08-31 17:17:42

Absolutely. The amount I’ve learned here about real estate and finance is amazing.

Comment by autechre78
2007-08-31 17:42:14

Totally agree. Please keep posting, you guys/girls are really helping alot of people avoid making very costly mistakes. Have a great weekend all.

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Comment by John Law(Duke of Arkansas)
2007-08-31 15:48:25

” realized that your newspaper has caused me great anxiety with your sensationalized version of the local news.”

another would be master of the universe can’t stand the fact that his 3 flips aren’t worth what he thought.

mark it to market.

now, where is my popcorn?

Comment by DoctorPresumeWatson
2007-08-31 15:58:01

Calm down subscriber……..the men in the white coats are on the way…….. every thing will be ok…..they will bring copies of 2004 for you to read again.

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-08-31 16:00:44

“they will bring copies of 2004 for you to read again”

LMFAO!!

 
 
 
Comment by Home_a_Loan
2007-08-31 15:56:12

Hahahaha.

“I cancelled my subscription blah blah blah…

signed,
Yours Truly,
FB”

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2007-08-31 17:02:52

Mainly because he couldn’t afford the 35 cents a day anymore.

 
 
Comment by uptown
2007-08-31 16:04:29

“closed on a Queen Anne townhouse in June”

There’s a sucker born every minute…and two to take ‘em.

Comment by Groundhogday
2007-08-31 16:17:44

These guys are looking backward at a raging inferno and saying “wow, just got out in time!” In a couple of months they’ll look forward and see a wall of flame engufing their townhouse.”

Gee Seattle was more expensive that we expected, and there is this big bubble thing that we just escaped, but could we possibly put 2 and 2 together? Nope, guess not.

 
 
Comment by Nathan
2007-08-31 16:11:10

“Can we put any more negative press on the front page about the housing market? Is it your business writer’s objective to send people off the edge and make buyers even more reluctant to buy? Does he froth at the mouth waiting for the monthly statistics to be released? What is the purpose of his venom-spewing articles taking over half the front page?”

The next couple of years we will be flooded with front page articles about the housing and mortgage market collaspe from newspapers all around the country.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-08-31 16:32:52

Our local paper already has a department devoted to this topic. See:

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/firstmagnus/

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-08-31 17:31:21

They have the biggest mortgage lender disclosing a major problem with a run on their Bank ,(Countrywide Funding ),and this person doesn’t think this news should be published . The mortgage industry is drying up and changing loan policy and this person doesn’t think this news should be published ? Foreclosures are massive and Wall Street is crying for a tax funded bail out and a interest rate cut by the Feds and this person doesn’t think this news should be published ?
The main stream media really just hasn’t disclosed just how much the market inflated beyond reason and just how many speculators and fraud deals drove the market up from 2004-mid 2007.
People need to know the facts so they can determine if they want to endorse a tax payers bail out or not . We had 7 years of nothing but cheerleading from the media and it’s about time the truth comes out .

Comment by Magic Kat
2007-08-31 18:56:24

Dear Housing Wizard,
Don’t worry. Homeland Security will take care of everything. Don’t worry. Christmas is coming and your kids want a new iPhone. Can I interest you in this plasma TV?

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Comment by jetson_boy
2007-08-31 16:27:16

“The housing market appears to be in a free fall. Bill Henegar, a Blount County, TN home builder said, ‘We’re certainly seeing it here — the market is just flooded. Unfortunately, many of the people struggling with homes right now have interest-only and adjustable-rate loans. Many of those people should have never been given those loans in the first place.’”

-Good to see news from my home town neck of the woods. Interesting because living here in CA, we’re already used to hearing about slowdowns and magic “home appreciation” after the slowdown. Yet the few online sites I read from TN seem to be about a year behind in terms of the down cycle from CA. There’s still a lot of ” Sales are slow, yet prices are still rising!”- spun in a positive light of course. Lately some of those reports are starting to sound like many in CA started to about 6 months ago… as in ” uh-oh”

I’m glad to see things slow down there because it seems all to easy to think that half of Michigan and Florida- especially those durned’ retirees are moving in like locusts and running up prices. But prices are still affordable there yet it is interesting to see that even there, people also got in way over their heads.

Lastly, as a comment to the bailout topic, I missed that one and wanted to add my 2 cents. This is totally bullshit. Up until today, I figured saving my money and living frugally would pay off and eventually I’d be able to buy something with realistic terms once the dust had settled. After today, I almost feel like I’m being punished for NOT becoming immersed in debt or making some totally irrational decision. What’s more, I can’t believe Democrats think this is a good idea. What the hell? Aren’t they supposed to have brains in their heads.

Happy weekend everybody.

Comment by Vermonter
2007-08-31 17:29:00

jetson_boy:

Check some of the other threads. My thinking on this point is that this is a non-event. A speech is not legislation - this is Bush pandering to his finance buddies and the tiny slice of america that thinks this is a good idea. It also is timed to boost the markets as we head into the doom months of Sept. and October.

Any legislation will take months to pass and this adminstration is incompentent in the extreme. Unless a true “black swan” event happens, there is a low probably of FB bailouts.

As for the Democrats, they tend to be a more intellicutal bunch than the Republicans. However, their platform and culture is of the “we’re here to help” variety. They are always looking for something to “fix”. Posing evil bankers against downtrodden minority groups is stuff they live and breathe on.

In other words: don’t worry, be happy, and keep on saving. Your day wil come.

Comment by lineup32
2007-08-31 17:42:33

Basically Bush said that folks could APPLY for a FHA refiance loan even if they are 90 days past due. FHA does not buy loans!
FHA has very strict guidelines, normally 3% down, excellent documentation, low DTI ratio, and will allow insurance up to 87% of LTV, they also require a appraisal. Now a private lender actually makes the loan and the gov’t via Ginne Mae pools the loans and creates bonds which REQUIRE SOMEBODY TO BUY the bonds. Now how popular do you think those bonds will be in the open market?
What bush also did today was good was support the idea of killing the short sale 1099 tax liability.
Overall nothing much will change, their is no bailout since its impossible to sort out the winners and losers and certainly neither political party wants to try.

Comment by hd74man
2007-08-31 19:43:46

RE: FHA has very strict guidelines, normally 3% down, excellent documentation, low DTI ratio, and will allow insurance up to 87% of LTV, they also require a appraisal.

FHA/HUD underwritten properties also must meet what is known as minimum physical property standards which include lead paint abatement.

If they return to their appraiser rotational fee panel system and cut out the hacks and number punchers, don’t think for an instant an FHA backed finance package is a slam dunk.

Owner’s of heavily depreciated, poorly maintained properties in crap locations will still be screwed, especially if HUD/FHA holds their appraiser’s toes to the fire and reverts to strigent underwriting.

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Comment by autechre78
2007-08-31 17:47:17

Good advice, thanks Vermonter.

 
Comment by Magic Kat
2007-08-31 19:05:08

Sorry, can’t stop myself

intellicutal = intellectual

Comment by Vermonter
2007-09-01 03:43:57

Ah crud - thanks. Apparently, I am not an intellictual *or* intellectual. ;)

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Comment by Incredulous
2007-08-31 20:01:32

Intellectual? Can’t they spell? To say that Democrats are more intellectual than Republicans is preposterous. Of course, they want to believe this, but neither group, on the whole, seems brighter than the other. Instead of patting themselves on their backs for their imagined superiority, Democrats and Republicans should be pulling bags over their heads for their collective stupidity.

Comment by SD Renter
2007-08-31 22:44:36

Instead of patting themselves on their backs for their imagined superiority, Democrats and Republicans should be pulling bags over their heads for their collective stupidity.

Amen to that!

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Comment by Vermonter
2007-09-01 04:08:37

First, it’s me that can’t spell. ;) And you and I agree - I think the intelligence level of both parties is about the same.

At least here in VT, it’s apparent that the Democrats think of themselves as the “intellecutual” party. You know: watching PBS instead of “Survivor”, against killing woodland creatures, writing incomprehensible books, ordering double tall mocha lattes (I’ve been to Italy *or* Starbucks!!) instead of coffee, that sort of thing.

To me, it’s just a culture difference that is projected through the lens of “smart”. The culture difference also explains why the only Democrats that have carried the South in recent history have been from the South. Southern democrats at least respect the local culture in a way that most northern ones do not.

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Comment by SteveH
2007-08-31 20:03:44

Geez Louise… I just looked at the message board for an MSNBC article about the Dems wanting to do more to help these poor, poor people. There were 201 PAGES of comments, everyone of them negative. We really, really need to put the pressure on with letters to Congress. I have written to both of my Senators and made no bones about opposing a bail out. Please all do the same. This idea is, as you all know, utter BS and needs to be sunk sooner than later. Call, mail, email, but do something!

 
 
Comment by wovoka
2007-08-31 16:27:16

Soon local newspapers will add a new section to their classifieds next to housing foreclosures will be “Credit card defaults” CASH WILL BE KING!

 
Comment by Andy
2007-08-31 16:31:01

What so bad about the housing market? So, a few people screwed up. Big deal! The government will bail them out… It’s only money. Who cares what prices we bid the houses up to… It’s not even our money! Anyway, the president will buy our votes with your money. Now, let’s just ginny up to the bar and conform!

Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-08-31 17:34:46

Both parties will have a bidding war for our votes. Whoever promises out more welfare to the masses will win. What a sad joke this country has become.

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-08-31 19:58:25

Do you really think it’s the welfare demographic that decides elections?

 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-08-31 16:32:52

It is funny that Bloomington, MN was one of the many hot spots for subprime lending. I guess Bloomington wanted to be known for more than just the Mall of America since it’s been a long time since the Twins, Vikings or North Stars played there. I don’t think they chose too wisely on their new claim to fame.

 
Comment by rocketrob
2007-08-31 16:33:56

I’ve seen noone mention that Bush’s speech this morning was for the benefit of liquidity, period. Ginny Mae increasing it’s upper loan limit was to open up the frozen jumbo market, and by playing with the lower limits at FMA may open up some frozen A+ loans. It was not to help the pooor FB or to provide any sort of bailout. In a previous post “Polly” made a good observation that it will also stop any of the foolish stuff Senator Shumer wants to do.

On a local note, Meritage Homes broke ground on 500 acres for a 6300 home subdivision around August 1st. On the 20th all those big earthmovers disappeared! Amazing.

Have a good weekend, I’m off to the Hatch Green chili festival and Bernalillo wine festival — can you say Red Chili wine? It’s an acquired taste and goes well with popcorn.

Comment by Professor Bear
2007-08-31 20:05:49

How nice of W to open the door for some poor GFs to purchase homes they cannot afford at prices above $417,000, and to put the U.S. taxpayer on the hook for the cleanup cost after foreclosure.

 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-08-31 16:34:20

None of the bailouts will work because most of these people can’t live within their means. Now that they don’t have their houses to use as ATMS and credit cards are maxed out things will start to unravel anyway - economy is too dependent on consumer spending now.

Comment by KayLaw
2007-08-31 16:40:04

I doubt many really want to be bailed out. So many just wanted in to make a quick buck and some are just hapless homeless people who gave their SS # to some shyster.

Comment by are they crazy
2007-08-31 16:56:03

I object to your use of shyster. Derogatory terms don’t lend themselves to thoughtful discourse.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2007-08-31 17:06:06

Um, when you are talking about shysters, what should you call them, then? Ethically challenged entreprenuers? Sweet Deal Seekers?

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Comment by polly
2007-08-31 17:13:16

Shyster is generally a derogatory term for a corrupt lawyer.

from Amercan Heritage
“WORD HISTORY: Calling someone a shyster might be considered libellous; knowing its probable origin adds insult to injury. According to Gerald L. Cohen, a student of the word, shyster is derived from the German term scheisser, meaning literally “one who defecates,” from the verb scheissen, “to defecate,” with the English suffix –ster, “one who does,” substituted for the German suffix –er, meaning the same thing. Sheisser, which is chiefly a pejorative term, is the German equivalent of our English terms bastard and son of a bitch. Sheisser is generally thought to have been borrowed directly into English as the word shicer, which, among other things, is an Australian English term for an unproductive mine or claim, a sense that is also recorded for the word shyster”

Learn something everyday. I thought it was derogatory because it had something to do with the Jewish money lender, Shylock, from The Merchant of Venice.

 
Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-08-31 17:28:26

Maybe he thought you were insulting shysters by comparing them to mortgage brokers and realtors.

 
Comment by Vermonter
2007-08-31 17:31:25

Tee hee - look at the name of the poster.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-08-31 17:36:11

Wrong spelling - spelled Sheister it’s is a derogatory term for Jewish business people alluding to them as being unscrupulous and shady. What do you mean by ethnically challenged?

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-08-31 18:29:37

Lighten up, crazy. I personally give everybody permission to call people Krauts, Heinies, crackers, honkies or whitey. It won’t offend me in the least. Deeds offend me, not words. Bailing out FBs offends me, not using some vague term that might or might not have something to do with my ancestry.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-08-31 18:54:00

Peace & Love my friend - long weekend and it’s time to party. Worrying is suffering in advance and life is way too short. Have a good one.

 
Comment by Houstonstan
2007-09-01 06:54:08

All right then. NYC : You are fecking Honkey cracker Heiny Kraut. :)

Shyster is still better than what my nationality gets called by the English: Sheep shaggers :)

I guess that’s in baaaad taste and I mutton say such things around here.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Terry
2007-08-31 16:54:07

Before everyone gets depressed about a housing bailout, think about this. I have a friend in Biloxi, Mississippi. Three blocks from the Gulf. His house was flooded to the 7′ mark. Fema has certified him as a complete loss. He fikes with FEMA over 20 months ago. His grant was approved over 12 months ago..still no money yet, nor a closing date anywhere to be known. If the government can’t get its act together in an emergency situation, does anyone really think they can bail out jsixpack from his housing woes? Talk is cheap, and right about now, with a war to fund, a hugh defecit, and all the entitlements, housing funding is a pipedream. Now, lets say they use FHA to help. Are they really going to fund a low rate mortgage, to replace an underwater arm. No down originally, no down again…not going to happen.Lameduck smoke and mirrors..settle the market and hope is all they can do. Were on the edge of a financial cliff here and my bet were going over…What we really have to pay attention to, is the bailing out of the big boys hedge funds..quietly through cash infusion like CFC’s last week. 4 banks, 500 million borrowed and CFC gets a 2 billion investment from BOA. They really believe were stupid and didn’t see this happen. The gov, will soon be owning the home mortgages that backed up those loans. I can see it now, Gov. reality.com. Geez! maybe I had better reserve that domain name!

Comment by polly
2007-08-31 17:35:25

Exactly. There is a reason why all these bailout proposals, even if they won’t do anything, are all situated within existing government bureauccracies. Building something from scratch within the government is mind numbingly hard. Even repurposing what already exists is difficult.

The FHA functioned for a long time without creating a bubble. If the only bailout loans have to conform to their existing standards or something very close to it, their loans won’t sustain a bubble.

And I actually think that the bubble can deflate without all the FB’s going into forclosure. Credit has still tightened going forward. There are still people who don’t have stupid loans who have to sell for the usual reasons. Comps (and future prices) are set by the houses that do sell, not by the ones that don’t. Even a real bailout wouldn’t prevent prices coming down. Slow it down? Yes. Stop it? No.

Comment by novawatcher
2007-08-31 20:46:38

There are still people who don’t have stupid loans who have to sell for the usual reasons
I was glancing at Zip, and saw at least two homes in the Oakton/Vienna/Herndon region (NoVA/DC metro) that were listed for $550k-$600k. Not worth that much IMO, but most homes of that style have been listed for around $800k. Granted, they are more towards Herndon, which is a cheaper area, but still…

…that lead me to the Fairfax property tax web site. Both owners had bought their properties in the early 90s for between $225k and $250k (these are 4br colonials w/basements). So, they bought a long time ago, have substantial amount of their mortgage paid off, and are willing to undercut their neighbors by $100k-$150k.

 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-08-31 18:33:58

“I can see it now, Gov. reality.com. Geez! maybe I had better reserve that domain name!”

I believe the domain name would end with a “.gov” if it were a government site. And you are not allowed to reserve those. Don’t waste $7 on the .com name.

Comment by Greg
2007-08-31 20:58:58

Look at usps.com

 
 
Comment by ronin
2007-09-01 03:04:14

What sort of check is your friend waiting for and feel deserving of from the American taxpayer? Didn’t his flood insurance cover his losses?

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2007-08-31 17:21:59

I’d like to thank everyone… the lively debate… the predictions (both right and wrong)… this blog has kept me sane. O.k., mostly sane.

I’m going to hit the streets this weekend in Pinellas County, FL to photograph the carnage. I’ll be sure to post links to the photos.

I’m amazed by how much I learn here everyday.

Here’s to Ben, who - as Busta Rhymes would say - is puttin’ his foot in the a$$ of the situation!

Here, here!

 
Comment by cereal
2007-08-31 17:24:09

i’ve only heard soundbites of the b/o speech, including we’re here to help low income fb’s. when the rocks are turned over, many of these low income fb’s will be showing huge stated incomes on their loan apps. or does the gov intend to look at the loan apps?

maybe the gov will just accept stated poverty-level incomes of those coming for a handout.

 
Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-08-31 17:24:22

WTF is this world coming to? Luxury condos towers in Lubbock and Flower Mound, TX. Yeah, get a view of those trailer parks from way up there. The condo towers in Lubbock will probably collapse due to the constant 40mph West Texas winds.

Now who’s going to buy Luxury condos in downtown Austin? I-35 through Austin the worst traffic ever. It’s a two-lane nightmare with 10 yard entrace ramps.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2007-08-31 17:54:10

‘Citigroup Inc. said today that it would take over the remains of the Ameriquest empire, once the biggest sub-prime mortgage operation.’

‘But the best-known part of the Orange-based home lender — the heavily marketed Ameriquest Mortgage Co. itself — will be shut down, the companies said.’

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-08-31 17:59:51

Hmmmm, that’s interesting…

 
 
Comment by HK_Vol
2007-08-31 17:55:33

An open letter to President Bush regarding our economic plight.
Brilliant:
http://worldmarket.blogspot.com/

 
Comment by Arwen U.
2007-08-31 19:04:28

Let’s see — Myrtle Beach — ah yes, my “Donald Trumpette” neighbor bought 2 empty lots there this Spring, after mortgaging the rest of her house in Northern VA to do it. She’s also struggling with a deadbeat renter in VA Beach . . . we drove by our old house today and lo and behold, the neighbors had packed up and foreclosed. They bought it for $600K and market rates are now $350K. (It’s all very surreal and “gaspy” lately. Every day I see some new foreclosure price and *gasp*).

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-08-31 20:02:09

‘We don’t have enough affordable inventory under the $250,000 price range.’

In due time :-)

 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2007-08-31 20:02:09

How bizaare that these newspapers are talking about the requirement of putting 5% like it’s some alien or particularly onerous requirement.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-08-31 20:49:37

Yea, I find that kind of funny too…

 
 
Comment by mountainbiker
2007-09-01 02:10:09

The only thing keeping the Utah market going right now is all the people who still believe the hype.

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-09-01 03:38:53

Did you see this? I’ll bet virtually no Heloc Harry or FB has 3 percent equity in their distressed house. No bailout.

To qualify for the new program, being called FHA Secure, a borrower will have to prove the original loan was being repaid until it reset to a higher rate and they must have 3 percent equity in the home. The FHA does not supply the mortgage loan but it guarantees loans extended by banks and other lenders.

 
Comment by dimedropped
2007-09-01 06:22:20

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and goodwill shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy My brothers. And you will know My name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

 
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