The Housing Bubble

The Morning News reports from Arkansas. “When a real estate market is hot the news travels fast and far. That was the case in Northwest Arkansas not too long ago as real estate investors from California and Idaho tapped into the housing sector with investment dollars. The strength of solid employment numbers and population growth the region caught the eye of out of state real estate investor groups like Realty Wealth Advisors of San Francisco.”

“‘Several investors came to me with profits they had made in Boise, Idaho, from the sale of property in that market. Six of them came back earlier this year and bought a second home after the market had slowed,’ said mortgage broker Chad Bridgers.”

“John Sullivan, broker in Tontitown, recently tried to work with a lady in Southern California who bought a newly built home in Northwest Arkansas as a real estate investment. He said the lady called and asked him to help her lease the property to cover her $3,100 monthly mortgage.”

“When he told her the home would bring $1,500 a month tops, she knew that her choices were limited. He said the house she bought was likely overpriced.”

“Unable to make up the payment gap, the home sits empty. It is probably now on its way back to the mortgage lender, marring her good credit score, Sullivan said.”

“More than 300 homes in Northwest Arkansas sit empty, ‘hidden’ in plain sight. Many of those homes show no signs of life. The grass has grown up and stacks of bricks sit in the garage. No ‘For Sale’ sign adorns the front yard.”

“Market analyst Paul Bynum classifies more than 350 homes in the region priced above $300,000 as potentially ‘hidden.’”

“The Quail Ridge subdivision in Centerton had 27 homes on Bynum’s hidden list. However, more than a dozen of these homes are owned by investors in Colorado Springs, Colo., and Newport News, Va.”

“Jeff Collins, economist with Streetsmart Data Services in Springdale, said there are a large number of empty homes in the region. His research revealed 578 completed but unoccupied new homes in Washington County, and 1,230 in Benton County as of June 30.”

“Pending litigation is another explanation for some of the hidden homes on Bynum’s list. ‘Homes in the midst of foreclosure or bankruptcy can sit vacant for up to a year waiting on the court dismissal,’ said Gary Head, president of Signature Bank.”

“We know some builders who are leasing new construction property even if the proceeds don’t fully cover their interest note because something is always better than nothing,’ Head said.”

“‘I am seeing new construction at price levels of $129,000 and higher now fronting signage ‘For sale or lease,’ said Austin Bivens, real estate agent in Springdale.”

The Democrat Gazette from Arkansas. “Landquest Communities of Arkansas was the largest developer in Bentonville before a bank filed foreclosure suits for loans totaling more than $ 20 million, a former employee said Tuesday.”

“The foreclosure is for the largest amount of outstanding debt to date for Benton County but it might not be the largest by the end of the year, warned Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville.”

“‘When you look at the amount of housing inventory out there, then you realize there will have to be shake-outs and big shake-outs at that,’ she said. ‘It is a very painful part of the process of getting this market back into equilibrium.’”

The Tyler Morning Telegraph from Texas. “What some real estate agents called new, innovative ways to obtain home financing a few years ago has turned around to bite the borrower. Or, perhaps the borrower should have waited to qualify for a prime quality loan, said Guillermo Covarrubias, assistant professor of economics at The University of Texas at Tyler.”

“‘These people have so little equity on their houses, that they find it really easy to just walk out,’ he said. ‘They’re not going to lose a lot of equity, so they’re tempted to say, ‘Well, I’m just going to stop paying and let them come and repossess the house.’ They already have bad credit anyway.’”

“‘The foreclosures are higher than they were a year or two years ago in Tyler,’ said Margie Fisher, loan officer for Republic Mortgage Home Loans and owner of B4Closure of Tyler. ‘I do think that we’ve seen a slowdown in the purchases, mainly because people are scared.’”

“As more people default, the local market could see a little bit of a housing glut. ‘Time on the market is starting to increase a little bit,’ she said. ‘I believe that since we still get a large amount of people moving in from Dallas - retirees - we’re somewhat insulated where other parts of the country are not.’”

The Dallas Morning News from Texas. “North Texas home foreclosure postings for the first nine months of 2007 show that almost 31,000 homes valued at more than $4.5 billion have been scheduled for forced sale by lenders…a jump of 12 percent in number and 19 percent in value from the same period of 2006.”

“More than half of the Dallas-Fort Worth home loans in foreclosure this year are held by the country’s biggest mortgage firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Foreclosure Listing Service found.”

“Only about 1 percent of the foreclosure postings for the first nine months of 2007 were for houses valued at more than $500,000. Foreclosure Listing Service CEO George Roddysaid those numbers could increase now that lenders are charging higher interest rates for so-called jumbo loans, over $417,000.”

“‘There’s a big issue now with these jumbo loans and all the speculative homebuilding out there,’ he said. ‘That’s got to be of concern to these builders.’”

The Record reports on Texas. “Today, public and private investors are sinking billions of dollars into Galveston’s building boom. Although Galveston is still partially gritty, that hasn’t deterred buyers from the Northeast in search of bargains.”

“Some blue-collar BOIs (local-speak for those born on the island), complain of a shortage of affordable housing, citing rising rents and property taxes. Other longtime residents express discontent over the town’s increasingly touristy feel.”

“Last year, Lee Avery, a Brooklyn-based traveling salesman, and his wife, bought a restored 3,300-square-foot five-bedroom, three-bathroom Victorian four blocks from the beach for $350,000.”

“‘Whenever there is change, someone is not going to be satisfied, but I think most people agree that this sort of change in Galveston is for the better,’ said Avery. ‘Folks back in Jersey and the Big Apple had better come down and take a look before the whole country takes notice and prices go through the roof.’”

The Galveston County Daily News from Texas. “Loan defaults and foreclosures in the county are soaring as once starry-eyed island speculators renege on multimillion-dollar loans and hundreds of families are unable to make mortgage payments on homes in subdivisions across the mainland.”

“July foreclosures on properties in Galveston County rose 484 percent to 146 from 25 for the same month last year, according to Bargain Network. So far this year, banks have moved to foreclose on 596 local properties, compared with 289 in the last eight months of 2006.”

“What Happened? Banks competing fiercely for loans and the fees they generate began offering easy credit with exotic terms that helped to fuel a five-year housing hot streak that began to cool last year, industry observers say.”

“‘Lenders didn’t check whether stated income was correct,’ said Harris L. Kempner Jr., president and portfolio manager of island-based Kempner Capital Management. ‘They didn’t insist on down payments for homes and condos; they violated a whole lot hard-earned rules of lending.’”

“‘What’s clear is that there are tightening standards for lending everywhere,’ Kempner said. ‘Those who ordinarily have no trouble at all in a logical real estate market are having more trouble than they would have ever expected.’”

The Express News from Texas. “Thanks a lot, National Real Estate Market. And you too, Mortgage Meltdown. Things were going just fine in San Antonio until you showed up.”

“Now, San Antonio’s once-smoking real estate market is cooling further because of national pressures that no longer can be ignored.”

“The inventory of pre-owned homes for sale reached 12,470 at the end of July, about 33 percent higher than it was at this time last year, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors. The inventory is so high that San Antonio is on the brink of becoming a buyer’s market for the first time in several years.”

“The biggest concerns for local builders are things they have no control over: the swelling inventory in the existing-home market and the uncertainty in the mortgage lending industry, said Randall Allsup, manager of the San Antonio division of Metrostudy.”

“In San Antonio, it looks as if there might be an oversupply of new homes in the $250,000 range, Allsup said. ‘There’s been an over-response on the mortgage side. In some cases, people with good credit aren’t able to get a home loan.’”

“The lower demand means builders such as David Anderson of David Anderson Homes have struggled to sell off their inventory homes this year. ‘A lot of builders, myself included, got caught with inventory,’ he said.”

“Anderson purchased more lots and will open new neighborhoods this year. ‘I’ve seen it a whole lot worse,’ said Anderson, who started building homes in the late 1980s. ‘We’re not making a lot of money, but I’m holding my own and we’re turning inventory.’”