September 4, 2007

Too Much Inventory Competing For Buyers’ Attention

The Missoulian reports from Montana. “Missoula may be somewhat insulated from the mortgage market misery consuming the rest of the nation, but it isn’t entirely immune. ‘Nationwide, the number of products we have to offer as mortgage lenders has shrunk,’ said explained Cathy Swofford, broker and owner of Missoula Mortgage. ‘It is a drastic reduction.’”

“‘We’ve seen some contractions in sales prices,’ Swofford pointed out. ‘Houses are staying on the market a little bit longer, and sometimes that helps the prices come down a little bit - and they need to.’”

“Prices are certainly no longer jumping like they once were, and people are finding they can’t flip a home for $20,000 to $30,000 in profit, said agent Bonnie Williford. Sellers can no longer inflate their prices or they risk losing their buyers, even after the price is reduced. There is just too much inventory competing for buyers’ attention, she said.”

“‘We’re doing fine, but we’re leveling,’ Williford said. ‘In this market, you really need to price it right.’”

The Idaho Statesman. “CBH Homes, one of Idaho’s largest homebuilders, is turning to online auction giant eBay to jumpstart the Treasure Valley’s sluggish housing market.”

“‘The current market demands out-of-the-box ideas,’ Ronda Conger, CBH Homes vice president, said in a statement. ‘We thought an eBay auction would be a fun and different way to attract potential buyers.’”

“The eBay plan comes at a time when home sales across the valley continue to drop. Last week, Ada County home sales in August were forecast to be the lowest in nine years. Forecasts called for 528 homes to be sold, the fewest since 527 in August 1998.”

“In July almost 8,000 homes awaited sale in the Treasure Valley market.”

The Statesman Journal from Oregon. “The Salem area and Oregon have escaped most of the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis that’s driving up home foreclosures and rattling Wall Street. But some see signs of trouble ahead.”

“‘It’s not a perfect storm, but you have a number of low-grade weather systems coming together,’ said David Tatman, the state’s chief banking regulator.”

“Angela Martin, who works on predatory lending issues for the progressive coalition Our Oregon, warns that Oregon faces a ‘tsunami’ of foreclosures from adjustable-rate subprime loans over the next 18 months.”

“About 40,000 Oregon mortgages will reset to higher interest rates this year and next, Martin said. ‘For the average person holding a subprime loan, their average monthly payment is going to go up $406,’ he said. A typical subprime loan payment could jump 25 percent, no easy task for borrowers with weak credit.”

“Since January, 2,372 loan originators stopped operating in Oregon, or nearly one-fifth of those arranging home loans, said Berri Leslie, mortgage lending program manager for the Division of Finance and Corporate Securities.”

“Foreclosures in the Medford area rose this year after home prices weakened, said Mike Leachman, policy analyst for the Oregon Center for Public Policy.”

“Salem resident Marci White complained that she wound up with a $1,500 monthly house payment despite reporting a monthly income of $2,166. White told regulators that the lender asked her to write a letter saying she expected monthly child support payments on top of her income, even though she’d only received one payment and her child support was four months in arrears.”

“Many mortgage lenders and industry analysts scoff at the notion of a crisis in Oregon because of its healthy real estate markets, low foreclosure rates and lower use of subprime loans. ‘We’re a different animal than what’s taking place in Southern California and in Nevada and in Florida,’ said Tim Larson, a commercial loan officer for Salem-based Silver Falls Mortgage.”

“Salem’s hot real estate market makes it easier to refinance loans, Larson said.”

The Bellingham Herald from Washington. “Gragg Miller of Coldwell Banker Miller-Arnason said this summer has followed a similar trend he’s seen earlier this year, with steady sales in a somewhat uneven market. ‘Prices couldn’t continue to go up like they had been.’”

“Realtor Peter Roberts described the market as ‘mixed, but with a stable core.’ ‘There are about four times as many homes out there now compared to the market peak of August 2005, so while the sales are just a little slower, the supply is way up,’ Roberts said.”

“‘The main risk to the local market is that reductions in credit availability will have an adverse effect on demand. It remains to be seen how large this effect will be,’ said Julie Hansen, an economics professor at Western Washington University.”

The Daily News from Washington. “The Longview area’s 13.6 percent year-over-year increase in home values ranks sixth in the country, according to Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight data released last week.”

“‘I’m kind of surprised at the that ranking,’ said Matt Broughton, Realtor/owner of Realty World in Longview. ‘I’ve been seeing a flat market, we’re seeing a lot of pricing reductions. There’s a lot inventory. It’s not like it was last summer.’”

“Longview’s ranking likely also is bolstered by current owners refinancing their homes for extra cash, since part of the OFHEO measures refinancing.”

“‘The market spiked last year and lots of people were still getting the equity out of the home this year,’ Broughton said.”

The News Tribune from Washington. “If you had to guess where the highest and lowest foreclosures in the South Sound occurred in July, where would they be? Top of the list: Spanaway, with 33 auction notices.”

“In Spanaway, real estate agent Pamela VanderLinda said the lower prices on homes there drew buyers in the last couple years who can’t afford increased mortgage payments now that adjustable interest rates are on their way up.”

“‘A lot of payments are going up from $150 to $300 a month and income hasn’t justified any increase,’ said VanderLinda, who specializes in foreclosure sales. ‘Plus, they go out and buy toys and have extra debt.’”

The Seattle Times from Washington. “Two decades after moving to Hawaii from the Northwest, Dan McEvoy considered buying a downtown condominium for his occasional visits to Seattle. But when he learned he’d have to spend more than a half-million dollars, the Seattle native and small-business owner figured staying with friends and family would do just fine.”

“Then McEvoy heard about a new type of condominium going up downtown that would allow him to buy a hotel room, stay there when he wants, and possibly make money when others use it.”

“Whether the Seattle market will support the high hotel rates and rising condo prices necessary to fulfill buyers’ expectations remains to be seen.”

“McEvoy expects to spend about $600,000 when ‘1′ begins sales of condo-hotel rooms in the next few weeks. He also hopes the revenue-sharing agreement with the hotel will cover his monthly mortgage payments.”

“McEvoy figures it roughly like this: He’ll make a down payment of $240,000, and get a 30-year loan with a 6.88 percent interest rate for the rest, with a monthly mortgage payment of $2,366, not including property tax, insurance and homeowner fees.”

“He estimates that to cover the mortgage payment, hotel management would need to fill his room 22 days or more a month at a daily rate above $300, and return at least 40 percent of the revenues to him.”

“Unlike many condominium projects, where developers discourage real-estate investors and favor owners who will live in their condominiums, said Paul Brenneke, president of developer Avalon Holdings, ‘condo-hotels openly welcome them.’”

“Still, Seattle is ‘rate-sensitive’ compared with more expensive tourist destinations, said Dante Alexander, CEO of the National Association of Condo Hotel Owners, meaning revenues for each hotel room tend to be less — a potential problem for buyers hoping to cover their mortgage payments.”

“‘It’s not the kind of market where, for whatever reason, people like to pay more than $300 a night,’ Alexander said.”

“Alexander said he downplays the money-making possibilities of owning a condo-hotel room. Expectations became unrealistic after the real-estate boom of the early 2000s in Florida, where ‘you could go to the beach, buy a unit for $300,000, and sell it three years later at a considerable profit, plus make money off renting it out.’”

“‘If you follow what’s going on nationally, we’re not sure price appreciation will occur,’ Alexander said.”




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99 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-09-04 12:59:14

A reader sent in this from a couple of weeks back:

‘The laws of supply and demand are finally catching up with the Skagit County housing market. After months of defying conventional wisdom about real estate values, homes prices are dropping below last year’s figures as the supply of homes continues to grow.’

‘The median price of a Skagit County home that sold in July fell 10 percent from the same period last year, which was easily the largest percentage drop among the 19 Western Washington counties tracked by the listing service. ‘

‘I think part of what’s happening is that the sellers are finally adjusting their expectations a bit when it comes to prices. Using appreciation rates from a couple years ago just isn’t working,’ said Josh Scott, managing broker at Windermere Real Estate. ‘If the neighbors drop their price a bit, and it’s snapped up, other people say, it’s time for us to do the same thing.’

‘The sky isn’t falling, but local real estate agents say they’re feeling the pinch. ‘We all definitely need a shot in the arm,’ said Robin Ross, owner of Pacific Northwest Real Estate Services in Mount Vernon. ‘Our market is definitely a little more stagnant than we’d like it to be.’

Comment by kThomas
2007-09-04 13:14:45

LOL…those pesky Laws of Supply and Demand.

But, but, but…real-estate never goes down in value.

 
Comment by HARM
2007-09-04 13:27:47

‘The sky isn’t falling, but local real estate agents say they’re feeling the pinch. ‘We all definitely need a shot in the arm,’

Gotta love Realtwhore-speak. “The sky isn’t falling” (i.e., anyone calling the post-bubble crash for what it is = Chicken Little). “Need a shot in the arm” = just a little more of that NINJA-option-ARM “juice” and the market’s all fixed! Nothing to see here, folks, the PNW is “special” and “immune” to any so-called credit crunch.

I don’t see why local newspaper reporters even bother getting REIC shill quotes. Why not just commission someone to write a simple Realtwhore-quote-generator packed full of industry euphemisms, double-talk and favorite pet phrases. And just make up B.S. names like “Meghan Fatstacks”, or “Hugh Leverage”. It would be more entertaining that way and just as informative as the real shills.

 
Comment by deogee
2007-09-04 18:51:12

Husband and I rent in Anacortes, Wa. The conversation at the dog park this a.m. was interesting. Woman walks up to group and announces that she has removed her home from the market because ,”we are not going to give it away”. They tried selling it themselves, then listed with an agent. The plan was to move back to family; but “pride” is a formidable adversary.
A mess of homes on the market here. All of them priced beyond logic. [we sold our home in 2004. not smart, just blessed]

 
 
Comment by AshlandRenter
2007-09-04 13:10:50

Here in Ashland, OR, August is shaping up to have been the slowest month of the year for closed transactions. Only 18 closed transactions have been reported so far for August, which is lower than the number for January this year. Last year’s August sales number was 34, so sales are down by almost half.

Year Over Year comparison:
August 2006 median price: $465,000
August 2007 median price: $418,000, down 11%

Month Over Month comparison:
Jul 2007 median price: $479,000
Aug 2007 median price: $418,000, down 13%

I think the increased rates for jumbo loans, along with growing inventories, stricter requirements for mortgages, etc. are finally having an effect here in Southern Oregon.

Still a long way to go though.

Here’s where the source for the data above:
http://www.jacstats.com

Comment by philly_guy
2007-09-04 14:13:55

interesting that both those median prices have been reduced right to the $417,000 conforming loan limit, just as the jumbo rates went up. It’s as if the homes in that area priced “in the fours” are all now selling for $417,000.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-04 14:14:48

Where are the jobs that support $400k-plus houses in Ashland? Is the Oregon Shakespeare Festival THAT lucrative?

Comment by ChrisO
2007-09-04 14:36:46

There aren’t many. But it’s become a retirement mecca for Californians.

Comment by Lisa
2007-09-04 14:59:35

Ashland Renter, correct me if I’m wrong….but I don’t think there are enough CA retirees to keep the market propped up. There’s been a tremendous amount of speculation in Ashland, and few of the locals can “afford” those houses now that exotic financing is tough to come by.

I think the money spiggot has been shut off for Southern Oregon.

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Comment by Groundhogday
2007-09-04 16:37:31

When Californians can no longer sell their homes for absurd equity gains, they won’t be able to afford $400k homes in Ashland either. Game over.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Statsman
2007-09-04 15:11:05

I am not trying to pour water on anyone’s fire, but …

Being a statistician, the variance in prices on the web source provided looks like nothing more than randomness.

Two comments:
1) I don’t think that means that nothing has happened. I would imagine that there would be a delay between the effect of the August tightening and the posting of a sale for statistical purposes.
2) I applaud the openness of AshlandRenter in posting their sources. That type of transparency is what is needed. Kudos to AshlandRenter.

Comment by AshlandRenter
2007-09-04 15:46:11

You’re right. I’m not a statistician…

I’m interested in hearing your analysis of the source data, Statsman.

You can click on the graphs to get days-on-market and # closed transactions for each month.

Comment by Statsman
2007-09-05 07:26:54

AshlandRenter,
My quick take (without pulling out the big statistical guns) is that no trend is apparent in the sales prices for any of the graphs. I see movements up and down (June and July even looked positive for home prices in some graphs), but nothing was sustained. In actual home sales, you see some movement downward - likely enough to be statistically significant - although the movement depends on the county. If I only had this data and no other knowledge on the financial environment, I would be uneasy making any statement pro or con for home sales. However, knowing what we know on this blog, I would say that the storm just hasn’t quite had an impact yet.

Disclaimer: Statistics is very good at finding trends after more than one data point is available. It tends to be reactive - that is I why I never use statistics to drive my investments. One must react quickly to the market, much of whose information cannot be easily digested in numbers.

I hope my little diatribe helped.

Best Wishes,
Statsman

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Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2007-09-04 13:13:18

Is anything dumber than the condo-hotel room scheme?

How many people want to pay to rent out an entire suite? Hotels typically have a tiny amount of them compaired to just regular rooms. So are you buying a condo in a building full of regular rooms? Or are you hoping that a building full of condo-sized hotel rooms is going to be 80%+ full year round?

And where is the allure of having people parade through “your” condo and stay the night?

This is like a time share, only MORE retarded.

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-09-04 13:35:37

‘Is anything dumber than the condo-hotel room scheme?’

It just goes to show that a complete scam can operate in the open as long as it doesn’t break any laws. Even Centex got into these things in Florida.

Comment by Statsman
2007-09-04 15:12:53

The Greater Fool syndrome if I ever heard it.

Perhaps Motel 6 has a room I can purchase and rent back to them.

 
 
Comment by John
2007-09-04 13:41:23

This is like a time share, only MORE retarded.

It’s pretty near the same as I see it, just with greater liabilities than a timeshare and *perhaps* a chance of future appreciation. Here’s one in Monterey that talks about costing “only” $185 to $725 per month out of pocket…I guess for the pride of ownership!

http://www.footprintsonthebay.com/Vacation.pdf

Note that this is a 1970s apartment conversion with poor parking, is next to the freeway, and is about 2 miles to anywhere interesting for tourists in Monterey. Also the rental rates seem optimistic because these places were leased for 35%-50% less before the condo conversion.

http://www.footprintsonthebay.com

Comment by salinasron
2007-09-04 16:07:32

John,

I have friends renting a two bedroom two blocks from ‘Cannery
Row’ from an older couple for $1500/ mo. and they have an ocean view as well as being close to shopping. The interesting thing about the area is that the rents and housing prices are forcing families to move out of the area so how many childless couples need to rent 3 or more bedrooms.

Comment by John
2007-09-04 17:25:44

Yeah, on the peninsula a 1 br goes from $950-$1,300 and a 2 br from $1,400+. A spooky percentage of the schools in Monterey and Pacific Grove are totally empty. One elementary just converted over to an adult language school for DLI. They bus kids ride the bus down to the remnant schools.

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Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 13:43:48

I had the bright idea a year or so ago to turn my house in Moab, Utah, into a resort property, renting it during the high season (spring and fall) and living in it the rest of the year. I spent about 10k getting good beds, linens, etc. then hired a property manager. My place was nice, it commanded a good nightly price (4 bedrooms), big deck with views of the redrock, etc. I stayed at a friend’s second home during this sceme, she was glad for the housesitter and I could keep an eye on my place.

I would wander over between tenants and inspect the place, and after one week I was appalled at the entire idea - strangers sleeping in my bed, leaving BBQ drippings on the deck, etc. It was no longer my home. I found all kinds of weird foods people would leave in the frige (stuff that actually has to be cooked, that sort of thing), not to mention the odd assortment of soaps and shampoos and stuff they’d leave behind.

End of scheme. My investment was about 1/3 recouped during the time it was rented, and now I have some nice beds and such - but for one with simple tastes, they don’t mean a lot - gave most of it to friends. Yet another great investment idea, just like the condo-hotel room scheme!

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-09-04 14:09:20

“the odd assortment of soaps and shampoos and stuff they’d leave behind…gave most of it to friends.”

Ewwwwwwwwww. 8)

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 14:26:37

yeah, my friends are that poor…LOL

no, gave away beds, BBQ, that sort of thing. Still have some of the junk in storage (sold the house) - like nice kitchen stuff I’ll never use. Palmetto, you’re wrong, globalization isn’t THE.WORST.IDEA.EVER - it’s turning your own home into a weekly rental. Lots of people in resort towns do it, though.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-09-04 14:35:14

Losty, you have to put the first period after WORST. Like this:
Globalization. THE WORST. IDEA. EVER.
But I agree, renting your own home weekly could be rough go. Lotta people who own in places like the HaHHmptons (on Long Island) do it. Big bucks in it.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 16:55:03

Will try harder, Palmy, but my punctuation mentor was Archy the Cockroach:

“boss i am disappointed in some of your readers, he writes, weary of having to explain the mechanics of his literary output. ” … they are always interested in technical details when the main question is whether the stuff is literature or not.”

http://tinyurl.com/2qcasw

 
 
 
 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2007-09-04 13:47:27

And, who is going to advertise this room enough to generate 22 room night rentals a month.

I know when I go looking for a hotel room, I hit hotels.com, orbitz, yahoo travel, etc. These $300 a night rooms are NOT going to show up.

AND, “all” he needs is 66% occupancy. Most hotels don’t come CLOSE to that…. even at rates WAY under $300 a night.

Yeah, EVEN MORE RETARDED!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-04 14:16:31

I think I’d just find a friend to crash with.

 
 
Comment by TulipsAllOverAgain
2007-09-04 14:35:32

“Is anything dumber than the condo-hotel room scheme?”

Indeed there is, they’ve applied this arrangement to cruise ship condos.

https://cruiseownership.com/levelpricing/Level_L_Port_Price_L30_L39.htm

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2007-09-04 15:07:16

OMIGOD! FLOATING RENTAL CONDOS!

Awesome. Simply awesome.

Comment by AKRon
2007-09-05 00:28:18

Cool. You can end up both literally AND figuratively under water…

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Comment by oxide
2007-09-04 14:46:54

This McEvoy belongs in the HBB Hall of Shame right next to that Classy Realtor with the diamonds and Rolexes. He balked at a $500K condo, but then bought into a $600K condotel?

Methinks that Mssr. McEvoy lied to the reported about ONLY wanting a crash pad for his “occasional” visits to Seattle. He just wanted appreciation. C’mon, admit it…

 
Comment by Chip
2007-09-04 14:57:26

There is a HUGE contotel complex being built south of Orlando, probably in Osceola County. You can see it on the south side of the Greeneway/408, about 3 miles east of I-4. I’ll send photos to Ben’s photo site tonight or tomorrow.

 
Comment by BlogReader
2007-09-04 15:14:38

Especially since Seattle will have a luxury hotel glut when Olive 8th and the one just across the street from it open up. Add to that the Four Seasons (I’m sure I’m forgetting at least two) and there’s no way you can rent them out at $300 month consistently.

 
Comment by Statsman
2007-09-04 15:18:09

With all due respect to the fine people on this blog that rent, renting is not what is used to be. My guess is that the individuals that read this could provide endless tales of how renters mangled their stuff and destroyed their house. There is a lot less respect today for other people’s things.

Which leads to another interesting aspect of this market - so many people are now planning on renting their real estate until the market improves. I am not sure they know what kind of bear trap they are walking in to.

Comment by Greg
2007-09-04 15:58:59

This also goes for the “just get a roommate” option many FBs have been told. Financially, that’s not a bad idea, but there is no way on earth I would get a roommate in this society.

 
 
 
Comment by still_waiting
2007-09-04 13:21:05

Here is an interesting question that just came up on Yahoo Answers:

What is a job where I can make lots of money? (I’m in Real Estate now)?

Right now I work for a mortgage company. I was making good money for the past 2 years, but now it is horrible. If you know anything about my business. I’m 20 years old. I don’t have a BA yet all I have is experience in the mortgage field. I’m looking for a career change. Does anyone have any good ideas of what I can do? What can I make alot of money doing. I’m used to getting 5-10k checks, but now there isn’t much money in mortgages. Please help!

Source: http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AjyQGxHhaHt7Hr1D.cMao2Oa.Bd.?qid=20070904125037AA6YDI5

Comment by sfbayqt
2007-09-04 13:42:28

” I’m used to getting 5-10k checks, but now there isn’t much money in mortgages. Please help! ”

All we can really say is, “Welcome to the real world.” If he’s still in school, he should probably sign up for the class entitled, “If it seems too good to be true, …..”

BayQT~

 
Comment by pinch-a-penny
2007-09-04 13:45:22

First:
This poster is so screwed at so many levels that I would not even consider replying to him. He should start out going back to school, even if it is just “community College”. I would suggest that if there is no money for that (blew it all away in cars, chicks, booze and drugs) then he can enlist in the US Armed forces, and do something to alleviate having been a mortgage broker.
He also will need to reconcile the fact that he will never see that kind of money again with a HS education. I wonder if he would be able to figure out a 6% interest on 100K?
Last but not least he might have to live with the fact that the purpose of his life is to server as a warning, and not a role model.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 13:47:01

Bwahahahaha!! 5-10k checks at the age of 20? I bet it all went for clothes, cars, video equip., etc. He/she has nowhere to go but down. Welcome to the real world.

Comment by John Law
2007-09-04 14:09:23

rims, plasma and etc.

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 14:27:39

yeah, my age is showing - LOL

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Comment by crispy&cole
2007-09-04 13:48:08

“What can I make alot of money doing.”

Doing absolutely NOTHING of value! Sorry Charlie the 100 year flood of easy money for ZERO work is over.

I hear Denny’s is hiring mortgage brokers - Yes, I will take Grand Slam…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-04 14:18:14

Naah, let this bozo start his/her restaurant career in the back. In the dishpit.

 
Comment by sweeny texas
2007-09-04 15:10:40

Come on, Crispy, this is, after all, America. As long as we have Wall Street, there will be plenty of opportunities for making big bucks by doing absolutely nothing productive. Just ask Warren or TxChick.

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 17:31:54

TXChick does more productive work in her spare time than most of us do at our jobs.

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Comment by sweeny texas
2007-09-04 17:57:34

Can you expound on that, Utah?

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 18:00:08

well, in my mind, productive work includes making the world a better place to live, not just creating or manufacturing something. She spends a lot of time helping the less fortunate, esp. animals. Pretty high in my book.

 
Comment by sweeny texas
2007-09-04 18:41:51

Oh yeah, I forgot, she rescues greyhounds or something, right? After they’ve been rejected due to their Michigan Wolverine incompetence? I apologize.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 19:27:42

your apology rings of sarcasm -

 
Comment by sweeny texas
2007-09-04 19:42:03

Sarcasm is my middle name.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-09-04 13:48:18

Come on you slackers, have some fun with this. I sure did !

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-09-04 13:54:43

LMAO!!!

 
Comment by still_waiting
2007-09-04 14:00:13

Liking the character pic with the wink! That’s funny.

Actually, the suggestion above about joining the armed forces is a great one. That’s exactly what someone with a high school education should do. If I could do it over again, I would. Now that I’m approaching 40, I could be anticipating a first retirement and a second career by now. Plus, I would have had help with education, could have excellent experience, etc…

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 14:03:32

well, that “etc.” should include the phrase “maybe be a statistic” if you’d be sent to Iraq or some other war.

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Comment by still_waiting
2007-09-04 14:07:05

There’s that, too.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-09-04 14:18:59

It is for that very reason that I have instructed my teenage kids to NOT enlist if the opportunity should arise.

 
Comment by ET-chicago
2007-09-04 14:25:29

Yes, a good option when there’s a high probability of peacetime service. Not so great otherwise.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-09-04 14:32:55

The thought of them being cannon fodder so that robber barons can become even richer just infuriates me.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-04 14:43:49

Testify, Colorado. I was watching something on PBS over the weekend, where they had graphic images and interviews with troops stationed in Iraq. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think I could survive even ONE of the traumas they have to endure, let alone being sent back into action after a “five hour rest”. Dang, I am PISSED! While CONgress just goes about keester-poking and brown-nosing like a bunch of brain-dead deer caught in the headlights. It would be fun to see CONgress raptured up and beamed down into the middle of Iraq and not let come home until they’ve withdrawn every last troop.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mike
2007-09-04 13:53:41

Very funny. I don’t bother with Yahoo but I followed the link and guess what one of the two answers were? Someone in the real estate business, or should I say toilet, posted, “Now is a good time to buy.” These real estate people are so funny. They just are not getting it like the kid who posted that question. Real estate will come back. It always does but now the boom cycle has ended, if anyone works in real estate they had better wake up because real estate for brokers and realtors is a dead horse for 5 or 10 years. For 5 years I hardly ever got one of those fancy booklets in my mail offering to build me a patio, put in a fountain, totally re-do my kitchen, etc. These guys were all busy making big bucks throwing up mile after mile of nasty cookie cutter stucco sh*tboxes. I’m not blaming them. The bucks were flowing like cheap wine at a festival - but now the festival is over and the morning headache has arrived. The real estate business is dead (unless you are in the foreclosure side of the business) and to hang on hoping it will come back in 2008 or 2009 or 2010 means you’re spinning your wheels. Ain’t gonna happen. “This Mess That Greenspan Made” is going to be VERY painful for a lot of people.

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2007-09-04 14:05:18

Ah, the schadenfreunde! I laughed at that one!

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-09-04 14:13:12

“What can I make alot of money doing.”

Up until recently, he could have bought a lot of real estate with cash back at closing…and then he could have used the cash for more SWEET DEALS. IT’S ALL GOOD.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-09-04 14:28:06

I had a neighbor in SoCal ask me a similar question in the early 90’s. He was involved in residential construction (was some kind of foreman). He knew I was a software engineer, so he asked me class he had to take at the local community college so that he too could become a SW engineer. I told him that it didn’t work that way, and that if he wanted to work for a quality employer he needed a 4 year degree. He was stunned, then he said, “well at least you guys start off making 100K, right?”. Try half that amount I told him. He was even more stunned and said ” You have to be kidding me!”. So, to make a long story short, he tried to get by with a pool cleaning business. A year later he surrendered his house to the bank.

Another neighbor (house painting contractor) was very surprised to learn that we college boys don’t make 150K.

 
Comment by ajmstilt
2007-09-04 14:36:46

there are only 3 thrings:

prostitution,
sellign frugs,
or used car sales

 
Comment by AndrewHac
2007-09-04 15:16:45

Jesus Freaking Christ ! It is unimaginable that there is such a human being like that still alive on this Earth. Man, what is this country coming down to ?

 
Comment by Kevin
2007-09-04 19:10:42

America still is the land of opportunity. Please believe in it and start a business. You are young and have less responsibility. You have tasted good money. 10K to 50K a month in a good service business is not all that difficult. You will find it fun making money and controlling your own life. People dont know it but it is much harder to make a living. Making money is easy. sometimes it is a gift from the Gods.

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2007-09-04 13:35:35

“‘We’re doing fine, but we’re leveling,’ Williford

- I know a guy named Solomon … he said, ‘Pride goeth before a fall’.
I don’t think the ‘fall’ he referenced was a price fall.

Comment by Groundhogday
2007-09-04 14:16:31

“‘We’re doing fine, but we’re leveling,’ Williford said.

Deja vu all over again… The entire article talks about how supply is way up, sales are down and you have to reduce the price to sell (and even then it is tough). But this RE shill still can’t admit that home values are falling.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-09-04 13:38:38

He also hopes the revenue-sharing agreement with the hotel will cover his monthly mortgage payments.”

And I hope Santa Claus brings me a pony !

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-04 14:19:33

Forget the pony. I want Santa to bring me a new car.

Comment by Hailey
2007-09-04 19:56:03

I’d take a pony. :)

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-04 13:49:23

“‘The current market demands out-of-the-box ideas,’ Ronda Conger, CBH Homes vice president, said in a statement. ‘We thought an eBay auction would be a fun and different way to attract potential buyers.’”

Unreal. eBay is about as “inside the box” as it gets.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-04 14:00:10

Aww, gawd, these HBs are in so much trouble. Ebay auctions is the best they can come up with, like it’s a bright, new idea. I bet Conger gets the big bucks, too.

Two words: PUH. THETIC.

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 14:21:16

ebay is too pathetic anymore, cheesy

Comment by Neil
2007-09-04 15:28:06

Hey, I like e-bay.

But oh the tension as the auction draws to a close. As you probably know, 99.9% of the e-bay auction is in the last 30 seconds as the “snipe” programs jump in and bid.

Bwaaa haaa haa ha! I like the fact they’re doing e-bay. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 17:00:59

that’s what I mean, Neil, cheesy. It was fun before the snipe programs did it for you and it was real time hitting the return key yourself.

 
 
 
 
Comment by implosion
2007-09-04 18:17:29

Speaking of “eBay is about as “inside the box” as it gets”, it has the lowest prices I’ve seen for classic porn.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-04 18:20:50

LMAO! Good one!

 
 
 
Comment by Pen
2007-09-04 14:01:47

“McEvoy expects to spend about $600,000 when ‘1′ begins sales of condo-hotel rooms in the next few weeks. He also hopes the revenue-sharing agreement with the hotel will cover his monthly mortgage payments.”

“McEvoy figures it roughly like this: He’ll make a down payment of $240,000, and get a 30-year loan with a 6.88 percent interest rate for the rest, with a monthly mortgage payment of $2,366, not including property tax, insurance and homeowner fees.”

“He estimates that to cover the mortgage payment, hotel management would need to fill his room 22 days or more a month at a daily rate above $300, and return at least 40 percent of the revenues to him.”

I’d like to know where he is going to get a $360,000 loan at 6.88% for a condotel. Will he be checking off yes to the owner occupied question?

He should check out craigslist, VRBO.com or cyberrentals.com to see just how many “you can always rent it out” properties there are available at any given time.

Plus, I’m sure the management company will always fill his unit, before the ones they own. Also, who pays for the renovations, etc.?

He probably doesn’t even realize that most name brand hotels are only operated (not acutally owned) by the operators.

NFN..he’d be better off buying some taxi medallians or practically anything else.

How much will it cost us to bail this guy in a year or two, when he starts complaining about how he was tricked, misled, defrauded, etc.?

Comment by ET-chicago
2007-09-04 14:21:07

NFN..he’d be better off buying some taxi medallians or practically anything else.

(laugh)

Yeah, taxi medallions and liquor licenses are like gold in the right ZIP code.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-04 15:16:45

“He should check out craigslist, VRBO.com or cyberrentals.com to see just how many “you can always rent it out” properties there are available at any given time.”

I dunno how it is in your neck of the woods, but craigslist Tampa real estate section is just depressing.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-09-04 14:30:29

COUNTRYWIDE TO SHIT CAN 10,000 per National MOrtgage News

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-09-04 14:30:52

test

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-09-04 14:31:18

Countrywide to Fire 10,000 per National Mortage News

Comment by bottomfisher
2007-09-04 15:40:32

I won’t believe it until Tan Man says its true.

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 17:33:56

isn’t tan man AKA Crispy?

 
 
Comment by Hailey
2007-09-04 19:59:30

Oh God, please let this be true. I have a bet with a homebuilder in the area who told me CW would never go down. I said that they will, then I said “Want to bet a house on it?!”

Hmm, what color paint do I want?

Comment by bottomfisher
2007-09-04 21:02:49

Coppertone…..but of course.

 
 
 
Comment by shadow7
2007-09-04 14:37:30

Where is Dandy Don when you need him>
“Turn out the lights the party is over”?

Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-09-04 15:13:47

Always liked that tune.LOL

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-04 15:14:38

“Our market is definitely a little more stagnant than we’d like it to be.”

Docor: “My patient is definitely a little more dead than I’d like him to be.”

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-04 15:20:15

Docor = Doctor (I’ve got a new computer, and the letter ‘T” on the keyboard hey (see what I mean?) sent me doesn’ (again!) work half the time.

Comment by Blano
2007-09-05 05:27:36

Kinda like the Michigan defense.

 
 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-04 15:40:26

Salem’s hot real estate market makes it easier to refinance loans, Larson said

Does anyone else think that maybe Mr. Larsen is practicing a little witchcraft with this kind of dip$hit thinking. And just how is Salem different than the rest of the country when subprime lenders are falling quicker than Paris Hilton’s panties on a Saturday night, or tallying up quicker than Lindsay Lohan’s DWI counts?

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-04 15:44:53

“He estimates that to cover the mortgage payment, hotel management would need to fill his room 22 days or more a month at a daily rate above $300, and return at least 40 percent of the revenues to him.”

I would like to sell this dude some lovely beachside property here in Albuquerque. Or maybe I can sell him the Golden Gate bridge. He must have a bucket of money and is definitely filled with a head of stupid. Nobody I know would be willing to spend $300 a night for a hotel room (or his BS condo). I would look for the nearest Motel 6, Ramada Inn, Best Western, etc for $50 (give or take a few $) for wherever I am going. I know several motel owners here in ABQ and have worked in them on fill-in. They don’t go anywhere near that amount at the times when every room in the city is full, and definitely not during the off-peak season.

Comment by Graspeer
2007-09-04 16:35:15

But his condo-hotel is different.

 
 
Comment by maus
2007-09-04 16:20:48

“About 40,000 Oregon mortgages will reset to higher interest rates this year and next, Martin said. ‘For the average person holding a subprime loan, their average monthly payment is going to go up $406,’
———————————-

This is something that I don’t understand, if your mortgage payment is going up by $406.00 most people would be able to make this increase by giving up a few unnecessary things like full cell phone service or the daily coffee and eating out a few less times a week. Even at my lowest earnings I would have been able to make up the difference some place, I’m thinking people aren’t trying hard enough to make it and don’t want the discomfort of having to give up daily things to keep a roof over their heads.

Comment by Graspeer
2007-09-04 16:41:27

This is because you must be a financially prudent person. The people the article is talking about live on the edge of a financial cliff, one wrong step and over they go.

The financially prudent have difficulty understanding bubbles and often think they will pop long before they actually do because they don’t realize how far out on a limb some people will go. That is why the prudent will often sound foolish in the time before the bubble pops because they can’t understand how it is still going on since they think it should never have gotten as far as it did.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-04 17:38:36

maus, I think these people are already too stretched to eat out or go to Daddy Starbucks. I think they’ve already given up all these extras to afford the payment they’ve been struggling with. The reset will wipe them out.

 
Comment by Kevin
2007-09-04 19:31:39

You would be smart enough not to get involved in a bad deal.

 
 
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