The Housing Bubble

The Dallas Morning News reports from Texas. “For thousands of Texas homeowners, the check isn’t in the mail. Almost 6.5 percent of the state’s mortgage holders are late with their monthly payment, the latest survey finds. That’s higher than the national loan delinquency rate of 5.12 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.”

“With a rooftop deck and sweeping views of downtown, the three-story townhome is barely 2 years old. This luxury residence east of downtown is in move-in condition and priced to sell.”

“‘It’s now priced $279,000,’ said real estate agent Alicia Duffy, showing off her 2-month-old listing. ‘We started out at $295,000.’”

“The 1,947-square-foot townhouse was previously owned by an out-of-state investor who hoped to make a killing in the Dallas housing market. That didn’t happen. Now it’s one of more than 14,000 foreclosed properties for sale in North Texas.”

“By some estimates, foreclosed homes now make up more than a quarter of the residential properties for sale in North Texas.”

“Ms. Duffy said the investor that owned the East Dallas townhouse ‘never even saw the property’ and was part of a group that bought up homes in the neighborhood hoping to flip them and make money. She said about 50 percent of her residential sales business now comes from the resale of foreclosed real estate.”

“Connie Zetterlund, (an) agent who specializes in foreclosures, predicts lenders will have to significantly cut prices to move properties. Standing in the front yard of one of her listings in DeSoto, she pointed to ‘for sale’ signs peppered along the block.”

“‘That’s a foreclosure, and that one and there’s another one around the corner,’ said Ms. Zetterlund. ‘This is a good neighborhood, but a lot of owners were hit by adjustable-rate loan payments that got too high.’”

“Her listing has been on the market since June, and the price has been cut about $7,600 to $285,900. ‘I’ve probably got 50 other foreclosure listings and another 20 on the way,’ Ms. Zetterlund said. ‘The number of these on the market is going up, up, up.’”

The Gazette from Colorado. “The Pikes Peak region’s housing market received more bad news Tuesday: The number of homeowners falling behind in their mortgage payments continues to climb.”

“El Paso County foreclosures rose about 20 percent in August when compared with the same month last year, according to the El Paso County Public Trustee’s Office. Also, for the first eight months of the year, foreclosures were up about one-third over the same period in 2006.”

“When lenders take back a home to satisfy an unpaid debt, they sometimes sell it at a discount, which can drag down values of nearby properties, real estate experts and economists say. Also, rising numbers of foreclosed homes coming back on the market add to an already flush inventory of resales and new homes for sale.”

“If two homes among 10 properties in a particular area go into foreclosure and are later sold, appraisers who help determine values on other homes that are going on the market will consider the lower prices the foreclosed homes probably sold for, said Benjamin Day, a broker associate in Colorado Springs.”

“The housing market isn’t just about numbers, it’s also about perception, Day said. Many homebuyers who read about rising foreclosures worry that the housing market is unhealthy and that it’s better for them to sit tight, he said.”

“‘You sit on the fence,’ Day said. ‘It encourages sitting-onthe-fence behavior. You’re more apt to find fault (with the housing market). There isn’t something emotionally compelling to push buyers into buying something.’”

“There’s also a strange split among homebuyers, Day said. Local residents might get turned off by rising numbers of foreclosures, but out-of-towners moving to the Springs see the huge supply and reasonable prices and think they’ve hit the jackpot, he said.”

The Rocky Mountain News from Colorado. “A year ago, state and local officials encouraged the Federal Reserve to implement moves to deal with the growing foreclosure crisis in Colorado.”

“On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve did just that, issuing a special ‘guidance’ urging loan service companies nationwide to work with borrowers who are in danger of defaulting on their mortgages.”

“Bob Davis, a Denver-area Realtor for almost 40 years, said the Federal Reserve’s plan is a good one, but warned it may be too late to help much in Colorado. ‘The water is already under the bridge,’ said Davis. ‘This should have happened years ago.’”

The Denver Post from Colorado. “When Anita Criticos bought her house in Aurora’s Del Mar neighborhood 10 years ago, most people living there owned their homes. Today, Del Mar is a collection of well-cared-for homes scattered among vacant houses with peeling paint and overgrown yards. Most homes are rentals, and For Sale signs are prevalent.”

“Del Mar has emerged as the metro-area neighborhood hit hardest by skyrocketing foreclosures and plummeting home values, according to an analysis by Your Castle Real Estate. In the past year, 71 percent of the 91 homes sold in Del Mar were either foreclosures or ’short sales.’”

“Criticos paid about $65,000 for her small two-bedroom house 10 years ago and watched it soar in value to about $150,000 by 2003. But by the time Criticos tried to sell her home last year, the value had dropped to about $113,000. She ended up pulling it off the market.”

“Of the 51 homes sold in Jefferson Park during the past year, 20 percent were either foreclosures or short sales, but the average value of the homes increased 24 percent to $247,000.”

“‘I can imagine that houses that were changing hands were probably not owner occupied,’ said David Zucker, a developer who’s building condos in the area. ‘My guess is that there were guys buying a second or third rental home and cutting pretty close and began to have some financial difficulty. They were getting squeezed by an adjustable-rate mortgage and one of their three holdings were tanking.’”

“Broker Brad Evans said the foreclosures are more likely a result of fix-and-flip buyers who didn’t know what they were doing. ‘The get-rich-quick scheme doesn’t always work,’ he said.”

The Aspen Daily News from Colorado. “According to an Aug. 30 Colorado Division of Housing foreclosure report, 19,460 foreclosures were filed as of the end of the second quarter of 2007. According to the report, ‘the most significant foreclosure activity is on the Front Range. The counties with the most foreclosure filings per household were Adams, Weld, Arapahoe, Denver, and Pueblo.’”

“‘There is definitely a crisis going on right now,’ says Drew Sakson, Aspen branch manager for Residential Pacific Mortgage. ‘Across the country we’re seeing banks go out of business on a daily basis. But it really hasn’t hit the valley yet. It’s just the tip of the iceberg nationally, and by the summer of 2008 we’ll definitely start to see some of the effects here.’”

“‘What’s insulating the valley is increasing prices,’ Sakson says. ‘As the prices go up, people who own homes are able to refinance because they have enough equity in the house. And many of the people upvalley have multiple properties and lots of financial strength. This means that if they get into trouble, they can set the price on their house low and sell.’”

“‘We did a lot of subprime lending from Rifle to Basalt starting back in 1996,’ Sakson says. ‘But we stopped three years ago. Because when you’re setting someone up with a $400,000 or $500,000 house and giving them a high-interest loan at 9 percent, you’re setting them up for failure.’”

“Foreclosures have steadily climbed every year since the Colorado Division of Housing started keeping statistics in 2003. In ‘03, there were 13,573 foreclosures, 16,801 in 2004, 21,782 in 2005, and 28,435 in 2006. The yearly increase in foreclosures for each year ranged between 24 and 30 percent.”

“According to the Colorado Division of Housing foreclosure report, 38,000 foreclosures are expected by the end of 2007, a 34 percent increase over 2006.”

“‘Ultimately, I don’t see this affecting the upper valley very much,’ Sakson says. ‘I’m a bit worried about Basalt on down, because there’s a lot of housing that’s going to come on the market in the next 12 to 14 months. We’ll definitely see a burp as supply increases and people aren’t as easily able to sell off their house when trouble hits.’”