September 9, 2007

It’s Becoming More Of A Pure Economic Decision

The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “About a year ago, Susan McDonald began to see dead lawns, weeds and vacant houses in her new Elk Grove neighborhood built nearly overnight during the housing boom. Months later, as (the) downturn continues to deepen across the Sacramento region, thousands more empty homes and their unkempt lawns have become the ugly face of rising foreclosures and bank repossessions.”

“Many real estate agents estimate that about 40 percent of the 10,000 single-family houses for sale in Sacramento County are empty.”

“‘There are so many new homes here and so many investors from the Bay Area,’ McDonald says. ‘When we pull up the owner’s names, nine times out of 10 they live in the Bay Area.’”

“A big problem is dealing with banks that own hundreds of empty houses after foreclosing on them.”

“‘I’ll tell you the banks are inundated right now,’ says Pete Piccardo, code enforcement supervisor in Folsom. ‘They’re not thumbing their noses at us, but it’s like ‘You’re on our list. I’m sorry, we’ll get to it when we can.’”

“Luann Richardson, a Fair Oaks specialist in selling bank repossessions, says banks have been slow to spend money on sprucing up foreclosed properties.”

“‘They would sell so much faster if there was just a light fix from a general contractor,’ Richardson says. ‘They need to come in and act like a businessman and fix it up or severely drop the price to get them moving. Because they’re not moving.’”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “The worse times get in the housing market, the better they are for Cecily Tippery. That’s because she specializes in selling foreclosed homes that have been repossessed by lenders.”

“Tippery’s territory, which ranges from Pittsburg to Brentwood, encompasses many of the Bay Area neighborhoods hardest hit by foreclosures. The eastern Contra Costa County towns, where new construction has been rampant, were a hot spot for subprime mortgages, given to people with poor credit and few assets.”

“‘Anybody who could breathe got a loan,’ she said. ‘They had low entry rates and financed to the max. Everyone was betting the market would continue to increase so they could refinance into a new loan.’”

“One five-bedroom Brentwood home was purchased about three years ago for $850,000 and appraised at $1 million within a year of that. ‘Now I’m having a hard time getting it sold at $650,000,’ she said.”

From CBS 5.com. “Foreclosures are hitting hard in Stockton, Contra Costa, Sacramento County, Fairfield-Vallejo, and all around the country, and billions of dollars worth of mortgages are going to reset to higher rates next month.”

“The team at San Francisco’s Consumer Credit Counseling Service is swamped with phone calls. A staff of 10 takes close to 200 calls a day from desperate homeowners threatened with foreclosure. Director Rick Harper is scrambling to double the number of counselors now that calls are being forwarded from the National Foreclosure Hotline.”

“Harper says half of all the foreclosures are cases where the homeowner simply walked away. They just let the house go.”

“Realtor Kelly Stombaugh says many Fairfield homeowners who need to sell have to be willing to let their house go at $20,000 to $30,000 under asking price in neighborhoods with high foreclosure numbers.”

“‘Do not walk away. That foreclosure will be on the record for a long time and it will prevent you from buying another house,’ said Stombaugh.”

From CBS 13.com. “In the Fairfield-Vallejo area for every one homes in distress there are two homes on the market that are not foreclosure sales.”

“So for sellers like Kathleen Conklin this real estate market is a nightmare. ‘Our house was on the market for 8 months. We were not able to sell it, so we took it off the market thinking it would improve and it got worse,’ said Conklin.”

“She reduced the price several times on her Fairfield five bedroom 3 bath home, with a backyard pool, from $670,000 down to $635,000.”

“The Kihn family was renting a Fairfield home that went into foreclosure. Now they’re moving a few miles away to Vallejo into a two level house big enough for the growing family.”

“‘The house was purchased in May for $599,000. We put an offer it for $385,000,’ said Albert Kihn.”

“That’s $200,000 less than the original purchase price, but the bank agreed and threw in extras. ‘They did closing costs and all the pest work and repair damage on the house,’ said Kihn.”

“So while the Kihn’s plan a future in their first home, the Conklin’s can’t move to the mountains for retirement, until they sell. ‘So far we’ve had one person look at it and no offers,’ said Conklin.”

The Orange County Register. “The owners of an Anaheim fixer-upper got into a pickle when the value of their two-bedroom condo fell below the $335,000 they owe on their mortgage.”

“Unable to afford their monthly payments, they ended up with just two options: lose the home to foreclosure, or sell it themselves for less than they owe and ask the lender to eat a loss of $25,000 or more. If the lender agrees, the condo will be sold as a ’short sale.’”

“Short sales have skyrocketed in Orange County during the past 12 months, according to new figures from the Southern California MLS. Figures show that 193 new Orange County listings appeared in the MLS from July 24 through Aug. 23. That’s up from 23 Orange County short-sale listings added in the same period in 2006.”

“‘It’s really just a (result) of several years of very liberal (loan) qualifications,’ said Ken Wagner, a member of the Short Sale Advocates division of Century 21 Superstars in Yorba Linda. ‘Lots of people got those loans expecting the market to continue to go up, and the market didn’t.’”

“Wagner said that the bulk of people seeking to do short sales bought their home within the last three years, when prices were at or nearing the peak of the market. Many used subprime loans. Others were homeowners who bought earlier, then refinanced into a much bigger loan with escalating payments.”

“‘We saw a huge increase in this in May or June,’ said Mac Mackenzie, an agent in Irvine. Between 15 and 20 of the 60 listings he now has are short sales, Mackenzie said.”

“Mackenzie also believes that the number of short sales is far greater than indicated in the MLS. Many sellers are afraid that disclosure would scare off potential buyers since short sales are more complicated and take far longer than normal sales.”

“‘I would take the rate of disclosures that you see and (multiply) it by five,’ he said.”

“Ron Garber, chairman of Shortsaleplan.com, said lenders are starting to show more willingness to approve short sales.”

“‘The lenders are starting to gear up their departments and be more efficient,’ Garber said. ‘It’s becoming more of a pure economic decision where lenders are looking and thinking what makes sense. Before, they were playing hardball because they didn’t think it would be as dramatic as it truly is.’”

The LA Times. “The ripples of the U.S. real estate boom began washing up on the shores of this beach town a few years ago. Californians, feeling flush from the steep run-up in housing values stateside, pulled equity from their primary homes and snapped up vacation properties in northern Baja California as if they were buying $10 lobster dinners.”

“Ground zero was this mid-sized community about 20 miles south of Tijuana, where developers sold hundreds of condominiums on spec.”

“‘We nearly had…fistfights’ over choice units, said Michael Coskey, sales director of the Residences at a 274-unit development under construction north of Rosarito in which the average condo is priced at $500,000. ‘We were all appealing to people’s greed.’”

“Greed has turned to regret for some investors who now can’t sell their Mexican properties.”

“Californian Chris Romero’s biggest worry two years ago was missing out on the action. He had his eye on a $200,000, two-bedroom condo in a project called La Jolla Real in Rosarito. But by the time the then-Diamond Bar resident was ready to commit, the developer had raised the pre- construction price to $250,000.”

“Instead of folding, Romero doubled down, handing over a $120,000 down payment to lock up two units, one for $238,000, the other for $270,000, before prices increased again. The retiree and his wife reckoned they’d sell the cheaper one just prior to closing and use the profit to help finance the other.”

“‘The market was booming,’ said Romero.”

“No more. With the development nearing completion, he’s finding buyers scarce and competition fierce. Rosarito is littered with so-called ‘resale’ units whose owners are looking to unload them. Romero is offering a $5,000 bonus to anyone who can bring him a buyer. His $290,000 asking price is ‘negotiable.’”

“More inventory is on the way. About 7,000 condominiums are in the pipeline from Tijuana to Ensenada, with another 5,600 in the planning stages, according to the Assn. of Resort Developers of Baja California.”

“Flippers who can’t find buyers will have to come up with the cash to honor their contracts, or secure Mexican mortgage financing at rates as high as 12%. Those that can’t close the deals risk forfeiting their down payment, often 30% of the purchase price.”

“‘The ones who bought multiple units are going to be in real deep doo-doo,’ said real estate agent Roberta Giesea. ‘The market has slowed way down.’”

“After four futile months of marketing her condo, Judy Dinnel just wants out. She and her husband planned to flip a two-bedroom unit in a project called Riviera de Rosarito that they bought last year during pre- construction for $330,000.”

“At their $369,000 asking price, the Avila Beach, Calif., couple would barely break even, after paying commissions plus a $10,000 bonus they’re offering agents to move the unit. More than 40% of the project’s condos are back on the market, according to the listings on the development’s website.”

“To protect their $100,000 down payment, the Dinnels are considering taking an 11% loan from the developer until they can find a buyer. Those payments would run $3,300 a month, more than double the monthly payment on their California residence.”

“‘We will be strapped,’ said Dinnel. ‘We’ll have to cut back on everything….I’m losing sleep.’”




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203 Comments »

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-09 11:53:18

“To protect their $100,000 down payment, the Dinnels are considering taking an 11% loan from the developer until they can find a buyer. Those payments would run $3,300 a month, more than double the monthly payment on their California residence.”

good money after bad…

Comment by SoBay
2007-09-09 11:59:44

Don’t do it Dinnel … it won’t sell for 2 years and you will be out another 79k…..then you will walk away anyway.

 
Comment by andrewhac
2007-09-09 12:39:26

Goodie ! goodie ! goodie ! My body is shaking all over when I read about the SOB blight. Server them right for trying to make a quick buck. I hope they suffer all the remaining of their lives trying to unload that smelly big-ass money of their back. YeeeeeHawww !!!

Comment by Backstage
2007-09-09 13:15:00

SOB = Screwed Over Buyer?

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 13:57:48

Question,

What are the consequences of a US national defaulting on a Mexican mortgage?

Thanks in advance,
Neil

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Comment by unknownpoltroon
2007-09-09 14:03:29

DEPORTATION TO CANADA.

 
Comment by RJ
2007-09-09 14:22:12

firing squad

 
Comment by kckid
2007-09-09 14:26:45

Citizenship?

 
Comment by skrook
2007-09-09 14:53:00

Its a little bit complicated in Mexico since land within so many miles of the ocean can’t actually be owned by a non-Mexican. The property is most likely held in a trust by a Mexican bank. Not sure who really defaults in that case.

 
Comment by SDMisfit
2007-09-09 16:48:05

There were some news programs about financing purchases in Mexico. A few US lenders had started loan programs in Mexico, but title problems are a great risk. I think you’d have to have huge down payments to get Mexican finance and even then it would be at comparatively high interest rates. So a US national defaulting would likely mean a big financial loss.

Walk Rosarito beach and you will have to jump across streams of raw sewage every fifty yards or so. The stench can be imagined. This is what they were paying $500K for.

 
Comment by peter
2007-09-09 16:52:35

I’m sure the colleteral on such loans to foreigners will be significant; something like their first born. Also, if the goverment gets its hands on the borrowers, jail for a long time will follow. Loss of significant collateral, jail time, etc. The borrowers will be screwed one way or the other. IMHO.

 
Comment by pismoclam
2007-09-09 17:07:16

We use to dig bullets out of the adobe wall behind the jail in Ensenada, years ago. Hope the Dinnels read the fine print on their contract. Habla espanol? On domestic loan docs 24 POINT TYPE on the front page states that it is a variable rate loan! hehehehehehe

 
Comment by ahansen
2007-09-09 20:43:31

kckid-
Thank you for the belly laff.

 
Comment by WatchingTheSagaUnfold
2007-09-10 03:38:06

‘land within so many miles of the ocean can’t actually be owned by a non-Mexican’

And who decided that?

 
Comment by Poshboy
2007-09-10 08:47:38

Remember, Mexico does not operate on an English-law system, so the ingrained respect we have for property rights does not exist in the same way in a Spanish law-based system.

My guess would be that the non-citizen restriction for seacoast (riparian) land was based on national security reasons. Mexico has had numerous revolutions and if a foreigner cannot own seacoast land, the landowner cannot land an army in secret.

Yes, that is a idiotic way of looking at land use and national defense, but it is a Mexican legislature, remember…

 
 
 
 
Comment by Premature Curmudgeon
2007-09-10 10:54:40

Every time I think I’ve reached the point where no housing-bubble story could astonish me, I find I’m mistaken. This thread on purchasing places in Baja is a perfect case in point. I spent a year working part time down there. A cheap place to spend weekends at perhaps. I would never buy as an investment. These tools are so scr**ed it isn’t even funny.

 
Comment by jcclimber
2007-09-10 13:11:36

“‘We will be strapped,’ said Dinnel. ‘We’ll have to cut back on everything….I’m losing sleep.’”

Uh, yeah. You idiot. You’re supposed to do that to purchase your own home, moron. To add to your residence a spec property, you better be prepared to REALLY cut back.

Start buying dog food to supplement your food. Just make sure it doesn’t have ingredients from China!

I vacillate between pitying these people with low IQ’s, and being amused by their come uppance after gloating for so long.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-09-09 11:59:17

? - I said sorry - LOL

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-09 12:01:01

Bay Aryans…

“‘There are so many new homes here and so many investors from the Bay Area,’ McDonald says. ‘When we pull up the owner’s names, nine times out of 10 they live in the Bay Area.’”

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 13:59:29

This must warm the hearts of the Bay Area bloggers. As this will surely lead to a minimum of two foreclosures. One on the investment property and another on the Bay Area home. I know this is common in OC and I’m also sure quite a few “Westsiders (LA)” and individuals in the “South Bay (L.A.)” will also get bitten.

The secondary consequences of this malinvestment will take a bit of time to shake out. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by John Law
2007-09-09 15:11:03

if you own a home in the Bay, your equity is exposed to “counterparty risk.”
failed investors who need to dump their primary residence(s).

 
Comment by Gwynster
2007-09-09 19:32:35

Spent the day in SF, hitting the big stores then a shopping trip to Britex. Bloomie’s had more salespeople then customers, more then usual. Nordie’s seemed to be doing ok. Macy’s was packed but it was full of bargain shoppers fighting over a reduced priced $20 shoe. Later in the day, Paris Hilton showed up and the place emptied.

Remind me next here to get a room at the Marriott and do the fall rush in two days next year. The traffic has gotten worse which I didn’t think could be possible. Thank god I don’t have to back into that hell until spring.

 
 
Comment by norcalray
2007-09-09 14:52:15

I know of one person with 5 homes in Sac and another with 3 homes in Sac. Yes, they live in the Bay Area too. There must be a bunch of Bay Area owing multiple homes in Sac.

Comment by Mr. Fester
2007-09-09 15:09:35

Sheesh,

It will be glad to see the Bay Area market contract like a styrofoam cup in the campfire. Those same “infestors” have ruined housing markets from Bellingham to Oregon to Reno too. A couple years ago you could get noone (realtor, contractor,etc.) to talk to you unless you had $3-600k CASH to start a purchase or get some work done. That would effectively excluse everyone except flush locust. Those folks will be eating some long-overdue humble pie as the BA contracts and the locusts stay home.

Comment by Frank Giovinazzi
2007-09-09 16:10:16

“…contract like a styrofoam cup in the campfire.”

What an image!

“Help me! I’m melting!….”

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Comment by jbunniii
2007-09-09 17:08:34

Seems like it would make more sense if they speculated on property in a city where people might actually want to live. Sacramento is not such a city. Same can be said for Stockton, Tracy, Modesto, Merced, all the other craptowns where Bay Aryans liked to “invest.”

 
Comment by Suzy K
2007-09-09 17:14:55

I work with a guy who owns two homes in Elk Grove and one in Sac (He was a morgage broker on the side). I just overheard him telling someone in the office that he’s upside down over 300K on the Elk Grove houses. His plan is to get the lender to rewrite the loans for the current values otherwise he’s walking (leaving his tenants high & dry). He seems so confident that the banks will go for this.

Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 20:57:27

Why would a bank do such a thing? They can rewrite the loan to him, or just rewrite it to someone else. Banks actually know better than to create moral hazard when it’s their own money on the line.

What a jerkburger.

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Comment by KirkH
2007-09-09 22:34:31

The “bank” might be some retirement fund in Malaysia so good luck renegotiating that thing without a translator with a hot poker.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-09-09 22:41:04

I agree.

I know a few people who do short sales who say that in most cases, the lender doesn’t want to negotiate with the FB’s directly as they see them as irresponsible.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Affordability
2007-09-09 12:03:51

OT this was too funny not to post -

http://orlando.craigslist.org/rfs/418010951.html
$299000 Open House today I hate my wife sale all must go she is no good

Comment by Vermonter
2007-09-09 12:11:32

LOL - hillarious. I wonder what the house must be like. Full of love and homebaked cupcakes I’m sure!

Comment by Suzy K
2007-09-09 17:17:21

Waaa!! craigslist flagged the ad!

 
Comment by tcm_guy
2007-09-09 17:46:56

Kindas reminds me of our cupcakes lady. I wonder if she is still trying to lure ‘em in with her cupcakes, or has she switched to something a bit more upscale, like free pizza? Or has she been foreclosed on by now?

Got 10% down?

Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 20:58:45

Stop it; I’m on a diet!

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Comment by toast on the coast, 90803
2007-09-09 21:52:17

I saw an open house sign today in the alamitos Heights area of Long Beach, CA. It said “freshed baked cookies”. That should sell the over priced p.o.s.
“Nice Haircut’

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Comment by Backstage
2007-09-09 13:18:39

Dartboard with a pic of darling wifey?

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 14:01:07

The best part is this will be the new area comp! My… I wonder how Zillow will treat the sale?

But it smells a bit fishy. Can anyone do anymore research? (What is the debt on the place, how long was it owned, etc.)

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by combotechie
2007-09-09 14:22:47

Fishy is right. What an ingenious sales gimmic if it turns out the wife is in on it.

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Comment by OuroVerde
2007-09-09 12:04:16

“Flippers who can’t find buyers will have to come up with the cash to honor their contracts, or secure Mexican mortgage financing at rates as high as 12%”

1980’s in Mexico. This Baja article is fascinating.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-09 12:51:04

Yes, I find that interesting, too. Wonder how that will all end up. It will be interesting to see what would happen to the people who got financing from Mexican sources and defaulted. I guess then we’ll find out how real the SPP and NAU is.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-09-09 13:01:34

Our friends South of the border were not stupid enough not to get a big down payment and charge 12% interest rate .

Comment by HARM
2007-09-09 16:14:55

No kidding - pretty pathetic when Mexico is a paragon of lending responsibility and capital risk management compared to El Norte.

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Comment by Patriotic Bear
2007-09-09 15:32:10

If you default on a Mexican loan you are forced to eat at a public taco stand.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 16:49:06

THANK YOU!

There are now a variety of mixed nuts on my screen. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by Kris in JP
2007-09-09 16:53:46

As a person who has been drunk enough to have the absence of mind to eat at a public taco stand in Mexico (it looked sooooo good!), that is the funniest thing I have read in awhile.

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Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 21:01:20

Dude, the fish tacos available at the taco stands in Baja are really, really good. Don’t knock ‘em ’till you’ve tried ‘em.

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Comment by John Law
2007-09-09 15:16:57

do they charge California prices near the border?

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-09 12:10:16

“‘I’ll tell you the banks are inundated right now,’ says Pete Piccardo, code enforcement supervisor in Folsom. ‘They’re not thumbing their noses at us, but it’s like ‘You’re on our list. I’m sorry, we’ll get to it when we can.’”

Ode to Johnny Cash…

I hear the train a comin’

It’s rolling round the bend

And I ain’t seen a non-green pool, since I don’t know when

I’m stuck in Folsom County, and time keeps draggin’ on

But that foreclosure train keeps a rollin’ on down to Manteca town

When I signed those loan docs, the mortgage man said son

Don’t worry about interest rates, don’t read your loan

But I shot my load on a bubble, and now I must fry

When I hear the sheriff knocking, I hang my head and cry…

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-09 16:19:04

they may be stuck in Folsom County right now, but for some of them, Folsom Prison may be their next home…

 
 
Comment by vmaxer
2007-09-09 12:11:39

““‘Do not walk away. That foreclosure will be on the record for a long time and it will prevent you from buying another house,’ said Stombaugh.”

Most of those walking away, probably realize that it’s inevitable. The smart ones see the writing on the wall, take their lumps a get on with their lives. The dumb ones hang on, throwing good money after bad and wishing for a miracle.

Comment by SoBay
2007-09-09 12:53:33

The smart ones will camp out and save money until the sheriff arrives … perhaps begin phony negotiations with lender to gain more time.

 
Comment by az_lender
2007-09-09 13:13:02

“prevent you from buying another house” … why would they want to do that anyway!

Comment by kpom
2007-09-09 13:47:02

Yeah - I suspect for many of the people caught in this trap, buying another house is the last thing on their minds…

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 14:02:36

Exactly. Besides, in three to five years after walking, they’ll be let back into the housing market. So its better to walk early rather than later. The worst impact? When they buy again a substantial down payment will be required. Hey wait a second… that’s true anyway! ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by Zhang Fei
2007-09-09 14:24:15

Besides, in three to five years after walking, they’ll be let back into the housing market.

I think they’re done with mortgages for a while - maybe decades. They were able to get mortgages with little more than a pulse because investors were willing to buy bonds consisting of the bundled mortgages, thanks to investment grade (BBB or above) ratings from the ratings agencies. Now that investors have taken huge beatings, they’ve figured out that the ratings are worthless. And the willingness to buy these bonds has disappeared. I read that Fannie may have had difficulty trying to sell conforming loans (!) earlier in the week. The market for mortgage securities is done, just as the market for Internet companies sporting price to revenue ratios of 1000 is over. Just as you don’t see these fly-by-night internet stock offerings any more, you won’t see the return of junky mortgage securities. Which is another way of saying that you won’t see the lending practices of the recent past for a good long while. If he walks away, he may not be able to get a mortgage for decades.

 
Comment by HARM
2007-09-09 16:17:23

Stombaugh doesn’t want other people trying to unload their McAlbatross’s interfering with him unloading his McAlbatrosses.

 
 
 
 
Comment by pismoclam
2007-09-09 17:23:42

You can walk into a bank tomorrow and buy a REO even if you were foreclosed last week.

 
Comment by andrewhac
2007-09-09 20:17:49

Like the people who will be defaulted and freaking walked from the current POS house will want to buy another house in the future !. What a slime-eel realtor talk…

 
Comment by Cracked
2007-09-10 12:32:50

And what would a short sale do???? Priceless.

Not a lot of alternatives for FB out there.

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-09-09 12:18:33

“So while the Kihn’s plan a future in their first home, the Conklin’s can’t move to the mountains for retirement, until they sell. ‘So far we’ve had one person look at it and no offers,’ said Conklin.”

A sweeeeet depiction of HBB winners and losers.

 
Comment by breakthespeculators
2007-09-09 12:18:58

the next time one of my stocks goes down, i’m going to call my broker and ask if he will take a ’short sale’ and absorb the loss for me!!!!! LOL!

 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-09-09 12:25:17

“One five-bedroom Brentwood home was purchased about three years ago for $850,000 and appraised at $1 million within a year of that. ‘Now I’m having a hard time getting it sold at $650,000,’ she said.”

Easy funny money meets cold hard crash.

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-09 13:57:25

“Now I’m having a hard time getting it sold at $650,000,’ she said.”

But its different in the Bay Area, they’re not making any more San Andreas Fault. LOL

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 14:04:08

My… we might be within 60 to 90 days of J6P realizing that no Jumbo loans means very few sales between $550k and $1.5M. Hmmmm….

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by PDXhomedebtor/OClandrenter
2007-09-09 22:09:23

Beautiful thought Neil, but even better is that most househunters barely have 10% down if that, which a $417K conforming loan means max price of about $460K. Which means a lot of banks are going to be eating a lot of paper in Cali. Jumbo spread is already up to 135 basis points in OC and has been climbing every week for 6 weeks now. It’ll be interesting to see at what point it peaks. If I were in charge, I’d send the jumbo fixed rate up to abou 12% for maximum entertainment. People under pressure.

Got diversified assets?

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Comment by Mike G
2007-09-09 15:54:32

All we need now is a major earthquake as a catalyst. With so many FBs financially on the edge and pathologically incapable of taking responsibiliy for anything, it would be a prime excuse for them to give up and dump everything fast.
“It wasn’t my financial stupidity, it was because of the earthquakes!!”

Comment by SDMisfit
2007-09-09 16:51:42

There’s been a string of little earthquakes in So Cal recently . I felt two magnitude 4 temblors in the last week. Could be precursors of the big one.

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Comment by OK_Land_lord
2007-09-09 17:09:29

Sounds like a good new mantra - Sell now or be catastrophically collapsed in forever.

 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-09-09 18:49:24

I actually had a realtor tell me a good time to buy is right after an earthquake.

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Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 19:37:42

In a normal market, that is true. But look at SoCal 1994/1995. The Northridge earthquake, per Wikipedia on Jan 17, 1994, started a two year price decline in the South Bay portion of LA. Some areas didn’t hit bottom until 1996 (1995 was a more common local bottom).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northridge_earthquake
So “right after” only applies in a non-bubble market.

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Geoff
2007-09-09 12:27:39

“‘We saw a huge increase in this in May or June,’ said Mac Mackenzie, an agent in Irvine. Between 15 and 20 of the 60 listings he now has are short sales, Mackenzie said.”

“Mackenzie also believes that the number of short sales is far greater than indicated in the MLS. Many sellers are afraid that disclosure would scare off potential buyers since short sales are more complicated and take far longer than normal sales.”

“‘I would take the rate of disclosures that you see and (multiply) it by five,’ he said.”

Funny that he knows he has 60 listings, but needs to estimate the number that are short sales. I’ll take his advice and multiply his disclosure of 15 by five to discover that 75 of his 60 listings are short sales.

Comment by Wickedheart
2007-09-09 13:32:40

Why would anyone waste their time on a short sale? It’s a pain in the @ss for a minuscule discount. REOs I’m seeing have a 20% discount and sometimes even more. I think that’s quite a discount considering how far we are into the bust.

Comment by LILLL
2007-09-09 15:26:06

Agreed. I won’t be messing with any shortsales…too close to bubble prices. I’ll be looking for more of a haircut than that.

Comment by Gwynster
2007-09-09 22:46:36

Short sale prices are a complete nuisance and certainly not worth it for the minuscule discount. By the time you get it through escrow, the market has already moved down to your price, if not already passed it.

As I told a realtor today when she gave me a hard time about an offer on a POS near us: “you can get them to agree to sell it at the ‘09-’10 price now or I can wait and buy it from the bank. So would you like your commission or not?”

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Comment by Jas Jain
2007-09-09 12:29:43


“‘The lenders are starting to gear up their departments and be more efficient,’ Garber said.”

Yes, before there was no incentive to be efficient?

“‘It’s becoming more of a pure economic decision where lenders are looking and thinking what makes sense.”

Yes, before they were senseless? We agree.

“ Before, they were playing hardball because they didn’t think it would be as dramatic as it truly is.’”

Hardball? They weren’t playing any ball. They were playing hooky.

Jas

Comment by sweeny texas
2007-09-09 17:49:28

It seems to me that there is so much inventory out there that even short sales will not work for long. Banks will begin offering leases to foreclosed homeowners to keep the houses occupied.

Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 21:11:31

I don’t think the banks will do that because they would bleed to death getting less money each month from their new tenants than they were previously getting just from the io teaser rate.

Comment by sweeny texas
2007-09-10 06:23:06

No doubt, the banks would have to write down the carrying value on their books to the market value dictated by the rent that they can get. There’s no way around the huge losses that are fixin’ to be taken. But the banks that survive will almost have to get into the rental business, at least for a while.

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Comment by Jas Jain
2007-09-09 12:38:36


“Many real estate agents estimate that about 40 percent of the 10,000 single-family houses for sale in Sacramento County are empty.”

My conservative estimate of carrying an empty home is 9% a year. My friend thinks it is more like 10-12%. Either way, people carrying them for too long are going to get bankrupted. I think that more than a million a year will get added to the bankruptcy roll by THB. It would be hard to get out of the next depression, Fed or no Fed.

Jas

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-09 13:11:13

“It would be hard to get out of the next depression, Fed or no Fed.”

You probably need to change “hard” to “impossible”!

 
Comment by Backstage
2007-09-09 13:26:37

Jas -

I agree that an investor paying PITI+M would spend 9% to 12%. Interest-only loans before reset would put that more like 5% to 8%. If you stop paying the loan and taxes, you shift the carrying costs to the bank (for 6 to 9 months).

Are you saying that it would cost a bank 9%? That is going to be a hit to the ol’ bottom line!

 
Comment by Gwynster
2007-09-09 22:56:00

Sac county is currently has 11400 listed. I love how these industry experts try to downplay the market even a little bit.

 
 
Comment by dan
2007-09-09 12:40:25

“She reduced the price several times on her Fairfield five bedroom 3 bath home, with a backyard pool, from $670,000 down to $635,000.”

All the cheap greedy bastards are doing the same thing as this dunce, offering ‘nickel & dime’ discounts when she should actually be thinking about dropping the home 100K or more.

Let ‘em squirm.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2007-09-09 13:06:16

From what I can tell, it is what Realtors are telling them to do. Guy down the street to the West has had his house on the market for atleast 6 months. Price is $1500 less than where it started.

Elderly lady to the East had her house on the market FSBO for a couple months, then listed through an agent. The list prices is half-way between where the other guy started and where he is sitting.

Meanwhile, the market crumbles around them.

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-09-09 13:36:41


Falling behind the curve means free fall to the bottom. Let the nature (or gravity) take its course.

What could I do? Nothing, of course!

Jas

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 13:40:30

Very OT-

Darrell_in_PHX-

I have a friend who is trying to convince me too buy/build a second home in Phoenix… My Question is just who in the hell are they selling all those 150k+ Acre lots to in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley especially the ones without pipes(ie: using wells instead of city utilities) or for that matter all those million dollar homes. They have more million dollar plus homes than L.A. I comped one that sold for 650k in 2001 and know it’s going for 1.9 million who are they selling that stuff too. No ocean view, no city light view, where’s the value?

Just curious…

Comment by James H
2007-09-09 13:56:21

$150K/acre? That’s soo 2002. Even out in Gilbert they were at least $300K/acre recently. Scottsdale I thought was more like $500K.

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Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 14:10:04

Yea… I saw a lot of those 500k a acre lots, there’s one on Craigslist that is advertised at 850k. But again who’s buying that stuff. Do that many snowbirds with heavy bank accounts buy down that way? I was kind of shocked at the pricing.

 
 
Comment by SoBay
2007-09-09 14:03:24

Nice CNN piece on Sedona last night - the homes were built on CLAY foundations and the homes are cracking apart as they settle. Apparently, only a visual inspection is required for single lot projects … no soil composition is required.

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Comment by spike66
2007-09-09 15:15:51

Hey Sobay, I saw that two. The one in Sedona is actually sinking, not settling. The couple is out 80k in legal and forensic engineering costs, and the builder, whom CNN coyly declined to mention, has an arbitration clause to use against the couple. Really ripped the Arizona inspection process–it’s basically, you’re on your own sucker.

 
 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-09 14:04:09

“who are they selling that stuff too”

Besides Matt Leinart and Danica Patrick and a few other wealthy unknowns, not much has sold lately in the over $2mil range. The stuff listed for $1mil to $1.5mil is getting hammered. No offers in sight no that lending criteria is tightening up and since most people got the memo that r.e. is toast.

Just two streets from my office, there is a 10yr old home with large lot. Original list price was over $2mil (very high for this area of Scottsdale). Looked again at open house this past week, is now listed for $1.3mil, still way overpriced, probably worth about $750 - $850. After talking with the listing agent, he basically admitted that home was worth about that and concluded that he is wasting his time. LOL It only takes me about 20 minutes to bring agents into reality thanks to this blog.

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Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 16:21:07

Not saying that you you are interested in doing so, but I wonder if he would’ve presented an offer for what you said it was worth.

I thought about hitting some of those million dollar lots with 100k offers but I felt that was still too much for raw desert with no utilities..

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-09 17:14:14

“Not saying that you you are interested in doing so, but I wonder if he would’ve presented an offer for what you said it was worth.”

Yeah must my luck. I’d be f*ing around and actually get my offer accepted. LOL

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-09 17:15:03

just = must

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2007-09-09 14:41:49

I have no idea who is buying this crap!!!!

When I lived in Scottsdale a few years ago, I was paying $650 for rent on a 750 sqft 2-bedroom apartment. Complex across the street went “condo” with units starting at $150K. Why on earth would ANYONE pay $1000 a month+++, to live in something they could rent for 40% less???

You simply can’t apply logic to anything in Phoenix since 2002-2003.

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Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 15:25:25

Wow… that’s interesting, I checked rentals in that area, and it seems you can rent a fairly decent 3 & 2 with a pool for $1,500.00 of course there are some that are more expensive but I don’t know enough about the area to determine why other than square footage. Ex: 4000 sqft can be 2,500 or 4,500 I guess it depends on where the property is located. That’s a weird market BTW hard to get a handle on.

 
 
Comment by norcalray
2007-09-09 14:55:59

That is crazy pricing for a desert location. Big drop in prices ahead!!

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Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 15:17:21

That’s what I thought as well, they seem to be selling the fact that you can see mountain’s from your property fairly hard, but know matter where you are you can see a mountain in Arizona and what they call a city view is quite comical.

I don’t quite see how looking at rocks and strips of light miles and miles away could be a selling point for a multi- million dollar property… but hey to each his own. What do I know?

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 15:18:49

know = no.

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-09 17:20:52

“That is crazy pricing for a desert location. Big drop in prices ahead!! ”

No sh*t. 3 years ago in Vegas (Summerlin / Red Rock) my wife and were visiting some Pulte and Toll Bros developments. And I can’t remember at which one, but the salesperson told my wife “this is the new Irvine”. My wife replied ” you are out of your mind, I grew up in N.B. and Tustin and this aint never gonna be the OC, there’s nothing but desert and heat…” They were happy when we left as we were scaring off the other rubes, err buyers. LOL

 
 
 
 
Comment by kaybertoss
2007-09-09 13:22:29

Nah, Let em eat squirrel!

 
 
Comment by Helicopter Commander Bernanke
2007-09-09 12:54:01

““After four futile months of marketing her condo, Judy Dinnel just wants out.”

Now that’s what I’m talking about. Although (1) given that they still insist on breaking even, they clearly don’t mean it yet, and (2) a lot more people need to be saying it.

Comment by Backstage
2007-09-09 13:30:26

‘Just wants out’ has a price tag associated with it. Unless she is willing to lower the price, what she’s really saying is that she ‘just wants out without taking a loss.’

We have moved from greed to reality. We are on the border of despairation…not there yet, but soon, very soon.

Comment by Backstage
2007-09-09 13:33:21

fat finger alert…despairation = desperation

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 14:05:48

I agree… the first people capitulating is the signal we’ve entered desperation. However, I’m not ready to declare that emotion has been reached.

Chuckle…
Neil

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Comment by combotechie
2007-09-09 14:31:49

The first people capitulating are gonna set the much lower comps. The the real fun will begin.

 
Comment by crisrose
2007-09-09 18:01:52

Already happening in Florida. These units originally sold in 2005/06 for $156,000:

$84,900 1 Bed, 1 Bath
710 EXECUTIVE CENTER Dr # 313
West Palm Beach, FL 33401
MLS ID# R2782087
**JUST REDUCED $30K**..LOWEST PRICE IN AREA.
**JUST REDUCED [ANOTHER] $39,000K**NOT A FORECLOSURE. OWNER SAYS MOVE IT NOW! LOWEST PRICE IN AREA. OWNER WILL DO LEASE PURCHASE AND/OR OWNER FINANCING.

[Lowest price in the area?]

$82,000 1 Bed, 1 Bath
710 EXECUTIVE CENTER DR # 1-12
WEST PALM BEACH, FL 33401
MLS ID# R2812912

$82,000 1 Bed, 1 Bath
710 EXECUTIVE CENTER DR # 11-25
WEST PALM BEACH, FL 33401
MLS ID# R2812909

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 20:06:20

$82,000 1 Bed, 1 Bath

Almost there… just another 40k to go.

 
Comment by luvs_footie
2007-09-09 21:39:26

:smile:

 
 
 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-09 17:23:06

“We have moved from greed to reality. We are on the border of despairation…not there yet, but soon, very soon. ”

I thinking maybe March or so, but definitely by this time next year, after the summer selling season fizzles out in most places.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2007-09-09 14:48:13

They just want out…. without a loss.

Sounds like “bargaining” to me.. We’re a long way from true desperation.

Still lots and lots of people taking their houses off the market to rent them out until hte market improves!

 
 
Comment by Kent from Waco
2007-09-09 13:10:40

“Flippers who can’t find buyers will have to come up with the cash to honor their contracts, or secure Mexican mortgage financing at rates as high as 12%. Those that can’t close the deals risk forfeiting their down payment, often 30% of the purchase price.”

Ha ha ha ha……

“Mexican mortgage”

good luck with that.

Comment by Home_a_Loan
2007-09-09 21:09:27

“Mexican mortgage”

in this case sure to end in a Mexican standoff!

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-09-09 13:23:47

Here’s one that will make you spray the keyboard.

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/66140

Comment by salinasron
2007-09-09 13:31:11

My mind can’t comprehend that that wasn’t some kind of spoof. The people shown in that clip don’t even qualify as ‘useful idiots’.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2007-09-09 13:36:02

Oh course it is a spoof.

 
Comment by Vermonter
2007-09-09 13:52:53

Onion is 100% spoof - in video, print, and on the web!

 
Comment by walt526
2007-09-09 14:04:32

The Onion is a total spoof. It around 10 years ago started as a fake newspaper at the University of Wisconsin and has expanded through the internet.

 
 
Comment by robiscrazy
2007-09-09 13:39:15

Almost fell out of the chair laughing!

 
Comment by cactus
2007-09-09 13:44:03

Thats funny. We need more of that in the MSM

Comment by combotechie
2007-09-09 14:40:58

I think we already have enough of that on the MSM.

Comment by John Law
2007-09-09 15:26:46

CNBC.

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Comment by Mr. Fester
2007-09-09 15:19:44

Thanks TXChick!

You made my day with that one.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-09 16:59:35

LOL That one was good.

 
 
Comment by beelzebubble
2007-09-09 16:24:28

Hilarious. I recognize that guy on the far left from a bunch of Sonic fast food commercials.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-09 17:40:12

That is truly rich!

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2007-09-09 13:24:15

I am thinking that sometime in the Spring of ‘09 I’ll study up and take the RE exam. I want to get all the inside info I can get to start exploring the market in ‘10 and ‘11. I’m retired and don’t need to sell a thing so I’m not looking for an income, just an insiders peek into areas that interest me. In the meantime I’ll start picking up info from existing RE related sources in the area. Talked to someone in Monterey yesterday who had been driving from Oakland down everyday (2hrs) and now decided to open a business locally. He’s a great guy and I wish him well but with the coming economy I don’t hold out a lot of hope.

Comment by Lost in Utah
2007-09-09 16:49:28

believe me, you’ll get much more of an insider’s view from this blog. most realtors are clueless, and that will be who your contacts are

Comment by salinasron
2007-09-09 18:14:07

I’m talking about very localized RE, mainly Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pacific Grove or Monterey. I love it here and will stay and rent unless I can find a real deal some years in the future. The only way to find that real deal (steal) is to be on the inside of a RE office or have the right contacts which I hope to develope over the next three years. I’ve had some good talks with people in Carmel, a beautiful community but from what I’ve gleaned there are a lot of negatives (very restrictive CC&R’s).

Comment by gab
2007-09-10 08:40:37

Carmel seems to get a lot of fog - even in the summer. I prefer Capitola on the other side of the bay. Not as many good restaurants and shopping, but fewer tourists and more sunshine and just a half-hour drive from Carmel/Monterey.

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Comment by Domi
2007-09-09 21:53:31

I was wondering how to invest in real estate? Got any pointers.

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2007-09-10 17:04:47

Take all you cash. Burn it. And it will be the smae experience without all those pesky forms to fill out. :D

 
 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-09-09 13:30:18

What exactly are the ramifications of defaulting on a mortgage for a condo in Mexico? Can a US lender take “ownership” via foreclosure? Actually I thought Mexico didn’t even allow foreigners to own property within 100 miles of its coast.

That people decided to pay $300k to $500k for condos in Mexico still completely boggles my mind. Let alone deciding that it is wise to own property in a foreign country without occupying it - regardless of the price.

Comment by bill in Phoenix
2007-09-09 18:52:02

I guess they never heard of renting a beach house for a month. I keep thinking of my dad telling me that owning a vacation house is silly if you leave it vacant for most of the time. To me, it’s an inefficient waste of resources. Some wealthy people have it figured out though. I had a Brazilian girlfriend who was a housekeeper at a high class hotel on the Newport Coast. She said Sly Stallone and family stayed there for a week. Why didn’t Sly just buy an ocean view house there instead? And now down in Baja we have the in-the-know peanut gallery would-be tycoons becoming stuck in over-inflated ocean view houses in Baja! LOL.

Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 21:51:34

Don’t tell the elephant about those peanut gallery folks. We wouldn’t want him to mistake them for actual peanuts, eat them, and have them end up as artillery during his next “accident”.

 
 
 
Comment by salinasron
2007-09-09 13:37:32

“Instead of folding, Romero doubled down, handing over a $120,000 down payment to lock up two units, one for $238,000, the other for $270,000, before prices increased again. The retiree and his wife reckoned they’d sell the cheaper one just prior to closing and use the profit to help finance the other.”

Who lent the money on the out-of-country property? If he were to let one property go could they (mortgage holder) go after the deposit on the second unit to offset their loss being this is south of the border? In the ’70’s I had relatives living in a double wide trailer at RB but I understood it was something like a 50 year lease on the land (they couldn’t own the property).

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 13:41:56

Heloc…

 
Comment by combotechie
2007-09-09 14:50:18

“In the ’70s I had relatives living in a double wide trailer at RB but I understood it was something like a 50 year lease on the land (they couldn’t own the property).”

Not being able to own the property in Mexico also was my understanding. It never made sense to me why one would want to build on property that he/she did not own, that ownership would revert to someone else after a specified period of time. As the reversion date grew closer the value of the property would greatly diminish.

 
Comment by Graspeer
2007-09-09 16:04:13

“Who lent the money on the out-of-country property?”

The same mortgage/banking/bond system that lent foreign money on overpriced RE in the USA. Welcome to globalism where money has no borders. Though some in that system are probably wishing that they had looked at borders before the latest RE craze.

Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 21:54:08

Or visited a Borders. A little bit of INFO might have helped them avoid this disaster.

 
 
Comment by jcclimber
2007-09-10 13:35:07

“Doubled down”

Appropriate to use a gambling term, because that is exactly what he was doing here.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-09 14:00:18

1980’s Sacramento: 8 Is Enough

2000’s Sacramento: 4,000 Is Enough

“Many real estate agents estimate that about 40 percent of the 10,000 single-family houses for sale in Sacramento County are empty.”

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-09 14:17:54

It’s a long way for a short sale, for Tippery

It’s a long way to go

It’s a long way for a short sale, for Tippery

To make a house go away, I know…

“The worse times get in the housing market, the better they are for Cecily Tippery. That’s because she specializes in selling foreclosed homes that have been repossessed by lenders.”

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-09 14:22:47

Elk Ghost Town

“About a year ago, Susan McDonald began to see dead lawns, weeds and vacant houses in her new Elk Grove neighborhood built nearly overnight during the housing boom. Months later, as (the) downturn continues to deepen across the Sacramento region, thousands more empty homes and their unkempt lawns have become the ugly face of rising foreclosures and bank repossessions.”

 
Comment by Ben Franklin
2007-09-09 14:33:19

Comment by andrewhac: “Server them right for trying to make a quick buck. I hope they suffer all the remaining of their lives trying to unload that smelly big-ass money of their back. YeeeeeHawww !!!”

Indeed, “Server” them right, yee-haw! Oh, how the maggots love to show how uneducated they are. Please, sir, no more comments from the Red Necks.

Comment by Backstage
2007-09-09 19:46:45

Red necks, cowboys, and hillbillies are welcome to post…..as long as the typing and grammar allow for some level of comprehension by the reader…..Yehaw!

Comment by chilidoggg
2007-09-09 21:22:10

indeed. I don’t understand why people re-read their posts, and then reply to their own posts with corrections. this is the too-much-information age, people, speed-read, absorb the salient points, keep moving.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-09 22:19:57

We have been hit by the grammar Nazi’s here…That’s why you see that.

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Comment by andrewhac
2007-09-10 16:29:41

Shut up. You Fool of the Hill ! Heee Heee Heee…

And that is for Franklin the Idiot !

 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 21:57:26

What’s wrong with you, Franklin? I’ve never seen you post before. You wouldn’t happen to be a bitter debtor, would you? Come to the blog to try for a little cheap shot, eh? What do we care if some of us are hillbillies, rednecks, hics, or even … BLACK? As long as we’re not FBs, we’re fine!

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 14:36:03

A big problem is dealing with banks that own hundreds of empty houses after foreclosing on them.”

“‘I’ll tell you the banks are inundated right now,’ says Pete Piccardo, code enforcement supervisor in Folsom. ‘They’re not thumbing their noses at us, but it’s like ‘You’re on our list. I’m sorry, we’ll get to it when we can.’”

“Luann Richardson, a Fair Oaks specialist in selling bank repossessions, says banks have been slow to spend money on sprucing up foreclosed properties.”

But they could get right to Juan the Strawberry Picker to throw $720K at him to buy his Mc$hitbox in the glorius town of Hollister. Same for the dead homeless guy in FL who owned 5 houses. They believed each made $200K a year because some lying scumbag mortgage broker said so.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 14:40:17

pulled equity from their primary homes and snapped up vacation properties in northern Baja California as if they were buying $10 lobster dinners.”

Hey, Mr. Waiter/MB - My party will have 4 $10 lobster dinners and 6 vacation homes. We will take the 2/28 1% teaser loans with a monthly payment of $500. That should cover the $1M price until the houses appreciate 100% in the next 2 yrs. For our dinner sides, we will have a loaded baked potato and ranch dressing with our salads. Thanks.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 14:42:07

Director Rick Harper is scrambling to double the number of counselors now that calls are being forwarded from the National Foreclosure Hotline.”

I think I could do a good job of being a counselor. I have the requisite knowledge and telephone experience.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 14:47:27

One five-bedroom Brentwood home was purchased about three years ago for $850,000 and appraised at $1 million within a year of that. ‘Now I’m having a hard time getting it sold at $650,000,’ she said.”

Million dollar homes in Brentwood CA? Good grief. For those that don’t know, that area is about 60-70 miles from SF/Oak and there is no freeway in there. The main access road is a 2 lane windy road with a very high accident rate called Vasco Rd which connects to I-580 in Livermore. It is horribly congested all the time and the commute to any major employment center sucks big time. They either have to go to Vasco Rd or across Hwy 4 which is also a big parking lot. This home should go down to about $250K when all is said and done. The starter homes should be $150K. It sucks out there. Getting in and out of there sucked 15 yrs ago when I first looked, and now has triple the number of homes. No commute alternative.

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2007-09-09 16:35:19

Oh, uh, I kind of thought they meant Brentwood like by me in SM.

Comment by crisrose
2007-09-09 18:11:43

“Tippery’s territory, which ranges from Pittsburg to Brentwood, encompasses many of the Bay Area neighborhoods hardest hit by foreclosures.”

Nope

 
 
Comment by Jimmy Jazz
2007-09-09 18:41:05

Plus, it borders that lovely sh*thole of Pittsburg, CA. I had to go there on a small claims case for my company. A Pit, indeed.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-09-09 19:03:11

Don’t forget how hot it gets in that area during the summer. Yeck.

 
Comment by colomountains
2007-09-09 21:20:12

You are being to generous there, the pricing should be at most $175K and started homes in the $125k. I was just there for a visit and I can atest to the driving conditions there. It took us over 1 hour to get back to Concord/Walnut Creek at mid-week at approx. 11:30 AM!!!

I really don’t want to do the commute time drive there! I am so glad that we left that area.

 
Comment by jeanelaine
2007-09-10 15:32:40

Brentwood is the place where I grew up. It was a great little place until they started selling all of the VERY productive farmland and paving it over to build houses. I haven’t been there in years (since 1994 when both of my parents passed away) and I have no desire to EVER go back. If only they could have left well enough alone.

This is my first post here. I have been reading this blog for months though and really enjoying all of the comments and the good information. Thanks!

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 14:52:14

To protect their $100,000 down payment, the Dinnels are considering taking an 11% loan from the developer until they can find a buyer. Those payments would run $3,300 a month, more than double the monthly payment on their California residence.”

“‘We will be strapped,’ said Dinnel. ‘We’ll have to cut back on everything….I’m losing sleep.’”

Mr. Dinnell.- be prepared to lose more than sleep. Be prepared to lose your A$$, your $100K, your credit rating, your flopped condo, your savings. Anything else I missed?

Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 22:03:15

Yeah …

Be prepared to wipe that smug little look off your face, too! Ha.

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 14:55:09

Question,

What are the consequences of a US national defaulting on a Mexican mortgage?

Thanks in advance,
Neil
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Comment by unknownpoltroon
2007-09-09 14:03:29
DEPORTATION TO

Deportation to Resolute CANADA - it is a teeny town on Cornwallis Island in the NW Territories. It is the farthest north settlement there and extremely cold. Would serve all FBs right to be forced to spend a winter there, or Inuvik, NWT, Barrow AK, etc.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-09 14:55:22

OT, but I am proud to report that Florida now has its own equivalent to Santa Monica, in Lakeland, which is close to the center of the state. Why do I say this? There was just a report on the telly that Lakeland, Florida, is now the haven for Florida’s homeless from the Tampa Bay area. Because it has three shelters, excellent services, great food (one of the shelters even put out a cookbook so Floridians could eat as well at the homeless there) and the police generally treat the homeless kindly. Of course, the local merchants are not too happy about the situation, but the homeless are. Apparently, this trend started because a bunch of homeless living in St. Petersburg’s tent city were bussed to Lakeland. So there they’ll stay. LMAO! Another way Florida has discovered to be like CA!

Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-09 14:59:39

About 15 years ago…

A problem prostitute was sent on an airplane, one way from Hollywood, Fla. to Santa Monica and S.M. retaliated by sending a problem homeless person on a one way flight to Hollywood, Fla.

A truce was reached and no further movement took place…

 
Comment by combotechie
2007-09-09 18:04:38

Way off topic:

Some years ago arrested street hookers in L.A. were put on a bus, by order of a judge, and sent to Florida. The Florida court officials were somewhat less than amused by this action thus they decided to bus Florida street hookers to L.A.

An understanding was eventually reached whereby L.A. and Florida each got to keep their own hookers.

Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 22:06:39

Guys, is this true? Are you making this up?

Comment by combotechie
2007-09-10 03:42:20

Yes, it is true.

I forgot to add that the arrested L.A. hookers originally traveled on their own from Florida to L.A. The L.A. judge felt that since they came from Florida they should go back to Florida. This is the decision that sparked the events that was to follow.

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Comment by SKB
2007-09-09 14:57:08

“‘They would sell so much faster if there was just a light fix from a general contractor,’

That statement is so stupid, if that were true we would not have thousands of homes for sale sitting and sitting and sitting.

Lower the prices all fricking reading and lets get this party started.

Comment by Mo Money
2007-09-09 15:13:05

Lets put it this way. A lot of these places will get a coat of cheap white paint and some very cheap HUD grade carpet (neutral tone) to make them more presentable. Minor repairs yes, kichen and bath remodels No. The banks will only put what they have to into these places and will let the rehabbers buy the totally trashed units cheap. The cream of the crop will be purchased rather quickly.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2007-09-09 19:20:09

“‘They would sell so much faster if there was just a light fix from a general contractor,’ Richardson says. ‘They need to come in and act like a businessman and fix it up or severely drop the price to get them moving. Because they’re not moving.’”

Uh - Luann, if you really think that, get someone to mow the lawn for $25. Sell the house and pocket 29975 in commission….
NOT! :P

 
 
Comment by Emily
2007-09-09 15:34:06

Some interesting pieces in the NYT today in a real estate feature called Key magazine. One article was about short sales and the description of one of the properties was sickening - apparently the soon to be foreclosed on “owner” was keeping pit bulls locked up in the place and rooms were full of pet odors and worse. So who in their right mind would buy these places even after a thorough clean up?

So many of the new developments are of such poor quality in materials and construction that they will be crumbling before many years go by. So many of the FBs going thru foreclosure have no incentive to maintain the places, and I expect many of them will be trashing the houses. Even if the prices are lowered substantially who would want these POS houses? Looks like there will be plenty of tear-downs.

 
Comment by vcrenter
2007-09-09 15:56:39

I read this blog almost daily, a couple times a day for at least the past 2 years. I don’t post often, but I just have to say Ben, along with many of the posters who’s comments I’ve relied on for great info and insight, are some of the smartest people around. Almost everything I have read on this blog are at least 6-12 months ahead of what the media are starting to report. Thanks, and keep up the good work guys.

 
Comment by lorenzogirl
2007-09-09 16:05:38

Okay, I’m overdue with my PayPal donation. $100 to this blog, which informs and entertains. Thanks to Ben and all the quick-witted posters, and oh, the knowledgeable ones, too.

 
Comment by aeyra
2007-09-09 17:00:45

Kind of OT, but has anyone ever considered this scenario?

The hedge fund and virtual finance market blows up and all of your 401Ks, bonds, derivatives, etc. become worthless (hey it’s not an unrealistic scenario given that a lot of people think gold is going to go to $ 4 million an oz or something). There’s maybe $900 - 1000 billion in actual currency floating around the USA now, and there’s maybe 126 million housing units. That translates into around $7,100 - $8,000 cash for each housing unit. Sure the economy would blow up like in Zimbabwe but you get the buying opportunity of a lifetime. You could buy that 9 bedroom McMansion in Beverly Hills for $50K instead of $14 million that some celebrity paid for it!

Watch Lereah’s face if/when that happens….hehehehe….it would be a BOHICA moment for a lot of people though.

Comment by technovelist
2007-09-09 20:30:20

Even if that were to happen, you would need the $50K in cash under your mattress or the equivalent, because the banks would all be closed “for the duration of the emergency”. However, I think it is more likely that the “dollar” would be wiped out in the collapse, so you would just wind up with a lumpy mattress.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-09 17:32:17

“In the Fairfield-Vallejo area for every one homes in distress there are two homes on the market that are not foreclosure sales.”

Only 1 out of three homes are in distress? The glass is 2/3 full!!!

 
Comment by luvs_footie
2007-09-09 17:32:50

Not a good day on Asian Markets…………….

Australia down : -108 1.75%

NIKKEI 225 : -430 2.62%

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-09 18:16:20

Hey, luvs, thanks for the report. It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street. By the way, do you ever sleep? :-)

 
Comment by TimeTraveler
2007-09-09 18:43:49

Hong Kong down about 2.5%

Comment by OK_Land_lord
2007-09-09 20:18:46

Don’t worry its all contained. I have move out of most of my positions and am holding on to my cash. Thanks for the info. It will be interesting to see how the Dow futures and European markets do?

 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 22:13:45

That’s a good idea. I never thought of checking Asian/Australian stock markets on Sunday for a sneak peek of US on Monday. Not that I can do anything about it, really, but it helps with the suspense.

 
 
Comment by I am Sam
2007-09-09 18:10:04

401K Question:

I’m and ammateur looking at options for my 401K besides a boring money market.

Can I ask if anyone knows about this one:

Templeton Global (89) Foreign Value Fund

http://www.valic.com/valic2003/aigvalic.nsf/images/profiles/file/fp89.pdf

I really don’t understand why its history tracks to the Dow… it’s UK pharmecuticals, Cheung Kong (Chinese mainland contractors from Hong Kong), Japan, Germany.

Is it possible that Europe and China cannot be hurt by our impending recession? Thanks in advance for your advice on this. (BTW, I could let it sit there for another 30 years.)

Comment by BubbleViewer
2007-09-09 19:24:59

I’m in a similar boat with Fidelity. They offer a very bland array of index and bond funds. No energy funds. No natural resource funds. No precious metals funds. No agriculture-related funds. No water-related funds. In other words, nothing I want to invest in. So I put my 401k in the one international fund they offer. I figure with the prospects for the dollar, that’s the safest place.

Comment by technovelist
2007-09-09 20:35:21

Same here, other than my decision a couple of months ago to borrow out almost half the value of the 401K and invest it outside, in the FXF Swiss Franc ETF. So far, I’m way ahead of where I would have been by leaving it all in FDIVX.

 
 
Comment by Emily
2007-09-09 19:39:13

I’d say run far, far away from any deals with VALIC.

 
Comment by I am Sam
2007-09-09 20:26:58

THANKS BV & Emily.
Valic is from a past job. I have Fidelity now, so should I roll it over into my current fidelity “boring” Mutual Fund? Or can I ask which foreign Fidelity might be good?

 
Comment by Big V
2007-09-09 22:17:19

I think the general consensus on this blog is that the world economy is about to take a hit. The money market fund is probably the safest, but if you have an all-government bond fund, then that’s probably even better. Be careful, though, because some of those “government bond” funds are also contaminated with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and MBSs.

Comment by OscarDeLaJolla
2007-09-10 07:34:21

I’m about 90% in the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund, which invests only in U.S. Treasuries. In this climate, I’m happy to have my funds backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. Love Vanguard’s expense ratios too.

 
 
 
Comment by spike66
2007-09-09 18:19:39

Nikkei down 458…and per Bloomberg,

“Japan’s economy contracted at almost twice the pace forecast by analysts in the second quarter, hardening speculation the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates this year.
The economy shrank at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the three months ended June 30 as business spending slumped,

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2007-09-09 19:36:32

Well there’s a ton of Japanese tourists here in SM, maybe they’re spending all their money here instead of Japan due to crap dollar?

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-09-09 19:11:43

Tot Tumbles From Repossessed Car

AURORA, Ill. (AP) — A repossession crew got a surprise when a 4-year-old boy leaped out of the sport-utility vehicle they were towing away.

Fashawn Parker, of Naperville, was sitting in the back seat of a Ford Excursion that was parked outside of a house on Thursday when the repo crew approached, hooked the car to a tow truck and began driving away, Aurora police spokesman Dan Ferrelli said.

Fashawn opened the door and jumped out into a construction area, Ferrelli said. It was not known how fast the truck was going, Ferrelli said, but the truck was moving in slow traffic because of construction.

Fashawn was treated for minor injuries and released from a nearby hospital.

The tow truck stopped after a colleague in a separate car phoned the driver to tell him that someone had fallen out of the back seat of the SUV, Ferrelli said.

No charges were filed against the two men driving the repo truck, police said, adding that the men checked the back of the truck and did not see the boy inside.

The car had been parked at the home of an acquaintance of the driver, who was picking up another child, Ferrelli said. Officials did not name the driver.

Fashawn’s mother, Camille Parker, said she was grateful her son was not more seriously injured.
© 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Comment by robiscrazy
2007-09-09 20:08:47

Good grief. The parents should be held accountable for leaving the child unsupervised in the back seat.

One of the FB’rs at my work who HELOC’d his house to the hilt and lost it all…..he just had his Expedition repossessed from the driveway at 3 a.m. last weekend.

The repo man (good movie BTW) was an ex Marine sniper with a heart of gold. He knocked on the door and let my coworker get the baby seat and other contents out of the truck.

 
 
Comment by Melvin Frumph Hoppe
2007-09-09 19:47:28

Big Houses Are Not Green: America’s McMansion Problem

The just-popped housing bubble has left behind a couple of million families in danger of losing their homes to foreclosure. It has also spawned a new generation of big, deluxe, under-occupied houses bulked up on low-interest steroids.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that 42 percent of newly built houses now have more than 2,400 square feet of floorspace, compared with only 10 percent in 1970. In 1970 there were so few three-bathroom houses that they didn’t even to show up in NAHB statistics. By 2005, one out of every four new houses had at least three bathrooms.

http://tinyurl.com/33o5sf

fin de siecle?

 
Comment by Snick
2007-09-09 20:36:39

Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 14:55:09
Question,

“What are the consequences of a US national defaulting on a Mexican mortgage?

Thanks in advance,
Neil
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Comment by unknownpoltroon
2007-09-09 14:03:29
DEPORTATION TO

Deportation to Resolute CANADA - it is a teeny town on Cornwallis Island in the NW Territories. It is the farthest north settlement there and extremely cold. Would serve all FBs right to be forced to spend a winter there, or Inuvik, NWT, Barrow AK, etc. ”

Don’t you all wish. Stunned. As if Canada would let you in.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 20:54:33

The Canadians don’t want our FBers anymore than any of us on this blog. So I guess we should send all of the FBers to some remote camp. In Northern AK for the winter, and then to Death Valley CA for the summer.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-09 21:04:59

Maybe I am being too harsh on Resolute or Barrow. With global warming, they may be the new hot spots?

 
Comment by Cinch
2007-09-09 22:07:11

with regard to owning land/property in our country the good US of A, no one truly own their land or house. So far as I know, most properties have property tax and insurance associated with them even if the “owner” paid off the mortgage and possessed the title and deed to the property. My mom and dad still have to pay their taxes ~$3500 per year, and multiply this by another 20 years in todays dollar value this comes out to be $70K. With insurance this comes out to be ~$450 per month, which is about half of my rent, nevermind the upkeep of the house. I’m pretty young, and know that if you look at all the cost (your time is a cost to me) associated with owning a house, why would anyone invest in such an asset that depreciate in value albeit slowly that only the financially astute people realize. I think that my mom, uncle and older people who are very frugal with money know that a house is just for shelter and a money pit in the long run.

I’m about to “inherit” my mom’s place, and already I see myself putting ~$25K for new shingles. I don’t want to do this, but the house has sentimental value to our family (not to me). Then there is the windows that need to be replace unless you want your electric bills to be the hundreds of dollars.

I’m renting a place that is built way back in 2006 and the detach garage siding is falling apart. I’m paying about 50% of the mortgage each month, and the owner or landlord by circumstance has to make up the difference nevermind the upkeep.

I’m perhaps one of the youngest on this blog and perhaps the poorest one too, and I have learned quite a bit from you guys. I learn this, if I stay in a location for more than 7 years, and can find a modest place where my monthly PITI is less than 20% (prefer 15%) of my take home pay, then I just may consider buying a place.

It is my wish that the bubble will forever make housing a commodity. Why not? Population growth is at its slowest pace in our country history, and if the Sierra Club and nationalist have it their ways, immigration (legal and illegal) would reduce to a trickle. If you take out immigration, the birth rate is in a death battle with the death rate. There is no shortage of land for development. Imagine a world where you put a small fraction of your income to shelter and a lot of it to your saving account for future endeavors (for me it would be travel). This would be a great scenario indeed.

Cinch

 
Comment by Dan F
2007-09-09 23:29:17

I remember reading, years ago, a forecast of a glut of single family homes expected to hit the market…when US baby-boomers (62+) near the end of their life cycles. Nevermind what’s going on now!

With the current US life expectancy at 77.9 years does it make sense to sell now or wait for 5-10 years?

Comment by jetson_boy
2007-09-10 08:48:08

I’d believe it. If you talk to virtually 75% of the baby-boomers I know, they ALL want to unload their current homes for obscene prices and ” move to the mountains.” Only problem with that logic is that the only people left to buy their homes can’t pay their prices. Guess they’ll have to stay put in their current homes like retired people have always done. boo-hoo!

 
 
Comment by ChillintheOC
2007-09-10 00:06:38

I can’t think of any dumber move than buying real estate in Mexico where the government can pretty much throw you out on your ear any time it wants. I have a friend who lost a $ 1 million dollar beach home in Baja California (near Ensenada) back when the Mexican government decided to ceed the land on the coast back to the locals.

Comment by AZ-IT
2007-09-10 01:06:33

Yep, always looked at it like purchasing a “lease” on a reservation. Apche’s told everyone to get off several years back… othing you could do about it except leave…
Lots lost their cabins and such, with nothing in return.

 
 
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