Buyers Are Asking For More And Offering Less
The Seattle PI reports from Washington. “Walking through a Georgetown house for sale in August, Jelena Senour said she was just looking. ‘I’m not comfortable buying at this point, with some of the prices (sellers) are putting out there,’ she said. ‘I’m not going to take their fall.’ Buyers’ reticence and difficulties getting a loan, or at least one with a desirable rate, are obvious in August statistics the Northwest MLS released Monday.”
“Seattle’s closed sales were down nearly 11 percent from August 2006, the first yearly drop since February and the largest since October. That was better than the 19 percent drop in King County as a whole and the 17 percent decline across the 19 counties the listing service covers statewide.”
“Pending sales, which can be a better indicator of recent activity, were down 17 percent in Seattle and 23 percent in King County and the 19 counties as a whole. The number of homes for sale, meanwhile, shot up about 50 percent in Seattle and King County, and 46 percent in Western Washington.”
“Ira Sacharoff, a Skyline Properties agent, said he was the only one of 13 agents in a recent class who thought area prices would drop. ‘In the real estate industry you’ve got a bunch of cheerleaders who don’t like to face reality,’ he said. ‘I’m in the minority.’”
The Seattle Times. “‘Sales are occurring, but closing is taking longer than usual,’ said Jake Jacobsen, managing broker in downtown Seattle.. ‘Our lenders are being somewhat more cautious.’”
“Jacobsen said…sellers should ensure their homes are priced properly. ‘This is not the time to put a price on a property and see if it’s going to work,’ Jacobsen said.”
“Sellers trying to jump in while prices are still high have pushed up the number of homes for sale, said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University.”
“That means buyers have an edge. ‘We do have buyers looking for bargains,’ Crellin said. ‘They have an opportunity to do more negotiating.’”
The News Tribune. “Sales activity in Pierce County, and around the Puget Sound area, looked much like it has for months: More homes for sale with fewer pending and closed sales compared with the same month last year.”
“Pierce County’s housing market appreciation in August continued to rebound from a June low. Real estate agent Bob Niehl said the apparent contradiction between rising prices and sluggish sales can be attributed to the best houses selling at the best prices.”
“And some sellers who see the state of today’s market are sitting it out, he said. ‘A lot of sellers are looking at this and think, why take a beating? If you don’t have to sell, why sell now?’ Niehl said.”
“Some pockets saw inventories beyond the six-month mark that indicate the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market. Gig Harbor’s inventory grew to 9.6 months, the Parkland/Spanaway area was at nine months and the Bonney Lake area had seven months of inventory in August, said Dick Beeson, a MLS director and Windermere broker.”
“Thurston County’s median-price drop can be attributed, he said, to a lack of diversity in the mix of homes – very few condos and lots of new construction.”
The Olympian. “Last month, 439 houses and condominiums sold in Thurston County, down from 522 sold for the same period last year, the data show. Meanwhile, inventory levels continued to rise for both houses and condos, up 20 percent to more than 2,400 units.”
“It…is a different market from last year, said real estate agent Ted Leland. ‘It’s definitely a buyer’s market all the way,’ he said.”
“Home seller Anna Kitner of Lacey is just glad to get an offer on her home. Kitner is selling an 800-square-foot house that occupies a 12,000-square-foot lot with seven pear trees.”
“After listing her home on July 16, Kitner didn’t receive her first offer until this month. By then she had cut the price by $10,000 to $190,000. ‘It was stressful because the market is so slow right now,’ she said.”
The Columbian. “With new home sales in Clark County down this year by a stunning 44.4 percent from 2006, home builders are finding creative ways to unload inventory.”
“‘At this point, every builder in Clark County is giving something away,’ said Michael Shanaberger, director of sales and marketing for Manor Homes, a Vancouver builder.”
“Through July, only 718 new home sales were filed at the Clark County Court House compared with 1,192 in the same period a year ago, reports a service of Riley & Marks appraisers.”
“‘Our sales have held steady. If we weren’t giving anything away, we wouldn’t be selling any houses at all,’ Shanaberger said.”
“Prices appear to be slipping as sellers make concessions. The median price of a new home sold in Clark County was $296,000 in July, down 8.8 percent from the median price of $324,420 for a new home in July 2006.”
“The figures suggest that Clark County is a buyer’s market, said Joe Keizur, public relations director of Vancouver-based Pacific Lifestyle Homes. His company is offering discounts of up to $15,000 on new homes, along with extras with the purchase of a home.”
“‘Most builders are offering discounts on prices now,’ depending on how many speculative homes the builder has on the market, Keizur said. ‘With everyone competing, it ultimately means great prices for customers.’”
“Industry experts say builders carrying a glut of higher-priced inventory here are particularly vulnerable to the national housing market slowdown. Those developers are counting on out-of-town buyers, said Travis Maley, a Realtor in Vancouver.”
“Without subprime lending, ‘Many of the people who want to move here can’t sell their homes in California and other markets,’ Maley said.”
“Slumping sales elsewhere mean the supply of high-end homes on the Clark County market continues to swell, Maley said. At last count, he tracked more than 190 homes priced between $400,000 and $700,000 listed in Washougal and Camas and 291 homes in that price range and higher in Battle Ground, Hockinson and Brush Prairie.”
“‘Who are the buyers? Not many of them are coming from our local area,’ Maley said.”
“Real estate experts say the ample supply of homes on the market means sellers of existing homes need to think realistically when setting their price. ‘When the market is headed down, you will get behind it if you overprice your house,’ said Scott Mikel, a Vancouver broker.”
“Real estate expert Terrie Cox said she sees sellers that are more anxious to work with potential buyers. ‘The difference is, two years ago, buyers had to act quickly if they wanted a house, because we usually had multiple offers bidding for the home. Today, buyers are asking for more and offering less,’ said Cox, a Realtor in Vancouver.”
“She advises sellers to give in if it means saving the sale. She also counsels sellers to take a hard look at the home they’re trying to market.”
“‘If you’re not in a prime location, you’re a poor decorator and you’re trying to get the maximum price for your house, you’ve got a problem,’ Cox said, ‘and you’re going to sit on the market for a very long time.’”
The Herald Net. “The number of homes listed for sale in Snohomish County mushroomed in August amid slow sales. There were almost 63 percent more single-family houses and condominiums on the market last month than a year ago, according to the Northwest MLS figures. Sales dropped 25 percent compared with the previous year.”
“For the year, single-family home sales in Snohomish County lag behind last year’s totals with 7,733 closings reported in 2007 compared with 9,636 in 2006. There were 6,841 homes and condos on sale in Snohomish County at the end of August.”
“And that isn’t bad news if you’re in the market to buy. ‘I think it’s a great buyers’ market,’ said Nathan Gorton, with the Snohomish County-Camano Island Association of Realtors.”
“In Island County, the number of houses and condos for sale went up 27 percent, and pending sales were down 25 percent.”
The Bellingham Herald. “According to the Northwest MLS, 319 single-family homes sold in Whatcom County in August, up 4.6 percent compared with the same period last year. In July, sales in Whatcom County were up 6.8 percent compared with a year earlier.”
“One concern I have is that pending sales are down significantly, so that’s something worth watching in the coming months. These (August) home sales were being finalized before the national credit issues began surfacing,’ said Lylene Johnson of The Muljat Group’s South Side office. Johnson analyzes MLS data for Whatcom County.”
“There were 169 Whatcom County foreclosure filings in the first half of 2007, up from 84 in the same period in 2006, according to Realtytrac Inc. Last quarter, when there were 90 filings in Whatcom County.”
“Also at the mid-year point, a study by Coldwell Banker Miller-Arnason showed the number of high-end homes sold — priced at more than $700,000 — are ahead of last year’s pace.”
“‘I remember there were people frustrated that they couldn’t find a home in the city that fit their needs a year or two ago,’ Johnson said. ‘There is much more supply out there now.’”
Could it be that the moat that was around us (the Seattle, Tacoma, Bellevue, Everett areas) was not as deep as anticipated?
Portland looks very similar. Inventory has increased about 50% from last year, while sales have declined moderately. Asking prices, in some cases, have fallen 10-20% from the wishing prices of last summer. Look out below.
Someone on another of my lists mentioned that she moved to Portland earlier this year and then later that she did a HEW and that she could do it again. I seldom see people actually admit that they do this. And it was stranger still to see the giddyness. I guess the northwest is one of the last to have problems.
http://www.portlandhousing.blogspot.com/
Don’t forget to check out the Portland Housing Blog for all the latest from the PDX.
But But But…..we have MS, Boeing, Amazon, Starbucks, and ZUNE!!!
Last domino to fall…..
“Ira Sacharoff, a Skyline Properties agent, said he was the only one of 13 agents in a recent class who thought area prices would drop. ‘In the real estate industry you’ve got a bunch of cheerleaders who don’t like to face reality,’ he said. ‘I’m in the minority.’”
There is still a loooong way to the bottom…
Any thoughts on the Portland market would be welcome! I’m enjoying this blog as I wait for starter home prices to drop down so that a middle class person with good credit can buy. I don’t want to drop 250k on a junky house.
I don’t want to drop 250K on a decent house.
Any thoughts on the Portland market would be welcome! I’m enjoying this blog as I wait for starter home prices to drop down so that a middle class person with good credit can buy. I don’t want to drop 250k on a junky house.
IMO Oregon is a tad ahead of Washington in the cycle.
I’m looking in the strongest market in PDX- SE Portland. Asking prices are all over the map for similar properties. I can imagine some parts of Oregon ahead- but SE Portland sellers still seem in denial. Seattle has more data available- so I watch Seattle wondering if Portland will follow.
Purely anecdotal, but I see alot of for sale signs around washington county - mostly in new tracts that are $400k to $800 K.
Stuff’s been sitting out there for quite a while, but it does seem to be moving, slowly.
‘Asking prices are all over the map for similar properties.’
That’s also typical for a transitioning market, IMO.
Not if, but when …
Check out reduced price listings on Craigslist for Portland. My guess is that we’re about a year behind the curve.
I don’t think you should necessarily worry so much about locale-specific information. This information should set anyone straight on when is the BEST time to buy. Variations on this plan mean you’re increasing your risk level for loss-of-equity, and bigger variations increase your risk of default or foreclosure:
1. 20% down, even if you qualify for less. Never break this rule if you want to be truly safe in case of a job move or unemployment.
2. Fixed rate mortgage for 30 years, 15 years is better if you can afford it.
3. Total up what your mortgage is, plus other loans, plus credit cards. Don’t exceed 40% of your average annual gross income with all that totals up. Average annual gross income is the average of your last 3 years.
4. Make your own “comps” on the rental versus ownership costs. If your mortgage+taxes+HOA is greater than 150x renting in the same area for a comparable home/condo, don’t buy. I prefer 120x, or even 100x, but 150x is safe enough.
5. Don’t exceed 3X your average annual gross income for your fixed rate mortgage total.
6. After your 20%, have at least 10% of your total mortgage remaining in a CD or money market as a backup to cover any costs if you’re unemployed.
For most markets, there’s a long way to fall, but if you can meet those 6 rules perfectly, it is a fine time to buy because you’re safe from the ups and downs of most of the market over the past 100 years of history.
NO market should ever (in the long run) give you an opportunity to break any of these rules. Personally, I bought a house a few months ago that is in a heavily-declining area, but we paid cash and wanted the exact home in the exact location, so we didn’t have to worry about many of the rules.
everytime I go up to Portland the local Kool Aid drinkers tell me Im full of it when I talk about the coming retraction in all the gains. Its either, everybody wants to live here, or its different here, or real estate always gows up…..
I just shake the ol noggin……Il say it again….Medford/Ashland, Bend, and Portland are finished, and all the old timers banking on the retirement funding cause they have a hal facre lot on a golf course are in for a big suprise as well.
There are many variants to same tired old story. Like you I just nod and listen, arguing takes far too much energy and I figure they will discover the truth soon enough
test
3 words are all that is required to respond at this point (especially to those Pearl District mutants):
empty condo towers
So prime borrowers are having their loan apps rejected as well. Yeah, sure the bottom will be here in a month or so.
“Washington-based Campbell Communications carried out a survey of 1,744 mortgage brokers between August 23-31, according to Realty Times. The survey found about 33 percent of purchase loans did not come through, against 4 percent in 2004.
Even so-called prime borrowers had their closings cancelled 21 percent of the time. (Posted by Calculated Risk today).
It’s amazing…I read that one earlier too. If they’re not lending to credit worthy people, have they stopped lending altogether?
(perhaps they were not credit worthy?)
Reread it. Prime borrowers were impeded by appraisals and high loan-to-value ratios, it said.
Or in other words, honest appraisers and low/no down payment??
The Campbell survey also found that a third of home purchase closings were canceled in August. Loan closings were canceled for 56 percent of subprime borrowers in the month amid failed approvals, while closings for 21 percent of home buyers with good credit were foiled.
uhoh.
It’s really going to piss me off if they stop giving loans (or making them harder to get) to people with GOOD credit because that just means it’s one more time we all get assed-out for being responsible!
It is not a right to borrow money. Someone has to want to lend it.
2,4,6,8… Real Estate always appreciates
Go Team!
“Ira Sacharoff, a Skyline Properties agent, said he was the only one of 13 agents in a recent class who thought area prices would drop. ‘In the real estate industry you’ve got a bunch of cheerleaders who don’t like to face reality,’ he said. ‘I’m in the minority.’”
We are still in Stage 1 Denial in Seattle . . . it’s Special here!
Wait until all those Seattle condos are finished.
Oh wow, is this ever true! Seattle’s condo scene has completely exploded. Not only downtown, but extending into Fremont, Greenlake, Ballard, Cap Hill, they tear down old houses and throw up these multi-unit monstrosities. Tall and thin and cheap, they look like they wouldn’t survive a strong gust of wind.
Seattle was not affected too badly by subprime but will be hit HARD by the disappearance of Alt-A. For Sale signs everywhere, and they’re still going up! Hello?… School started already, nobody’s looking. The weekly Sunday infestation of Open House signs always cracks me up.
A house in my neighborhood went on sale in June for $795k, lowered the price in July to $780k, doing the weekly Open Houses. Finally pulled it off the market last weekend. I never saw a soul. Most pathetic attempt to sell a house I’ve ever seen. A block away, one went on sale last year at 1.25M with no action. Relisted in July for 850k and still nothing, these people are just fking insane. BTW, I rent a 2br for $1000/mo, haha!
“Sellers trying to jump in while prices are still high have pushed up the number of homes for sale, said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University.”
What did Buffet say about everyone running for the exits at the same time? Not everyone will make it out of this burning theatre.
Looks like the Pacific Northwest has finally started the journey down the backside of the bubble!
Hey Groundhogday - Did you say awhile back that you knew / worked with Glen Crellin?
We aren’t friends and I’ve never actually met him face to face. But I have called or emailed him once a quarter or so to get the news behind the news, what is happening in Pullman etc… He’s a very friendly guy and a good source of MLS data.
I do have another more personal “source” in that center if you are interested in a particular bit of info.
…they tear down old houses and throw up these multi-unit monstrosities. Tall and thin and cheap, they look like they wouldn’t survive a strong gust of wind …
Sounds like Chicago circa 2004-2005.
A friend calls them Red Rockets, ’cause they went up fast, they’re skinny (often jammed right to the edges of a plat), and faced on the front (and only the front) in red brick.
We have the SoWhat District here in Portland (south waterfront) with tons of condos coming. A couple planned towers will now be apartments (for later condo conversion when the market warrants, no doubt).
What I get a kick out of are how desperate builders/infestors throw these up in “da hood” and expect you not to see the shacks on both sides with bars on the windows….and then want $350K for the POS!!!
Location, location, location…..that is about the only RE “saying” that is always true.
Seattle and the rest of the PacificNorth West is merely later in the cycle. There really is nothing “special” about it in comparison to some other bubble areas.
“it’s Special here!”
It is if you believe that stock exec this am on CNBC. He said that he was starting to look in Seattle because prices are holding up. I sure hope he follows what he spiels.
OTOH, they had a high up exec for MBz saying that they (BZ,BME,etc) wouldn’t be effected by a recession because they had affluent buyers who can pay cash. That just doesn’t jive with what I see, as people I know have all leased their BMW, MBz, Lexus. Wait for the short interest in their stock to rise and then let’s ask him again.
It sure is special in Seattle. 462 listings on the Seattle-Tacoma craiglist are “Reduced”.
On a happy note - Re/Max is filming a commecial up the street later this week at an older condo building. Don’t know why (maybe the view), just saw the courtesy notice about them taking over parking on the street during the shoot.
Countrywide battling the flu again today. How much longer until their trade symbol looks like AHM’s”
In a statement, Countrywide said: “Regarding media reports today about Countrywide Financial Corporation, it is the company’s policy not to comment on market rumors.
“Reiterating its earlier statements regarding cash and liquidity needs, the company has already taken decisive steps to address the challenges arising in this environment and thereby enable Countrywide to meet its funding needs and position the company for continued growth and success.”
Sounds like bankruptcy to me?
I heard Morgan Stanley and someone else was going to step in and provide funding, but when they are holding a lot of toxic crap that is exploding, why would you want to go near it?
Oh, because these guys are savvy investors and think they can time the market.
I guess you guys missed my memmo this am:
CountryWide is the recipient of the Discount Window monies, that all the debt heavy players can throw at em.
Course that gives you a stronger position at the firesale post bankruptcy as you write covered calls all the way to zero. (yes its a real number)
No sales yet for friends who have homes on the market in both B’ham and Seattle. Both have been price-reducing since June, following the market down. Too bad they refuse to get in FRONT of the market.
Saw my first “nearly below 2006 sold price” home on the market this week. Sold for 459K May ‘06, now on market for 469K (was put on at 495K last month, now price reducing).
The banks, or somebody, appear to be getting serious about selling defaulted properties. Every once in a while, one comes on the MLS with a “WOW!!!” price. It gets sold immediately. (ie. in B’ham, a 550K craftsman going for 389K). Starting to see the same kind of thing in my old Seattle neighborhood. After years of overpricing, these homes seem like a “deal”, even to me. I can see why they are sold quickly but also realize these people are catching a very sharp knife.
‘After years of overpricing, these homes seem like a “deal”, even to me.’
That happens in each market right after the turn, IMO. What do people in Bellingham do to make a living? (Avg wage, etc.)
Not much, I’ve worked various jobs and just got laid off. I’ve been looking for a job for about 4 mos now, not even a call back from anyone… The job market is depressing. Not sure of the avg wage, I think it’s around $45k/ household. I remember an article the herald placed 2 years ago that said the average income in bellingham can afford a house that costs no more than $160,000. Good luck with that!
“There were 169 Whatcom County foreclosure filings in the first half of 2007, up from 84 in the same period in 2006, according to Realtytrac Inc. Last quarter, when there were 90 filings in Whatcom County.”
Sorry, but I’m still laughing at these puny numbers. Are there only about 1,000 people living in Whatcom County?? There’s around 169 filings EVERY DAY in Wayne County right now, and that’s just one county out of the 6 or 7 in the metro area.
Ooops, my bad. Only 165 today.
OT–my appologies. The blog was discusing this in the last post.
http://tinyurl.com/2j2crx
A U.S. appeals court ordered a federal judge to reconsider whether a proposed class-action lawsuit against underwriters including Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley can proceed.
This country will litigate itself into the bowels of a dead dog. (sorry dog)
The Ugly truth about Housing , exposing the NAR
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/11/hiding-the-ugly-truth-about-housing.aspx
Go Fool. I love the spread sheet.
BTW, I assume that Seth is posting here.
Went to Tucson this past wknd…hilarious. While visiting a niece (renting an unsellable $500K very old house with brand new granite countertops…flipper fiasco) I visited the same type of house for sale next door, open house. Just reduced from 540K to 399K…now, this is about 2 blocks west of UofA…couch and keg on the porch territory. The realtor and I got into kinda a tussle about whether or not I was going to sign the “guestbook”….she wasn’t happy about anything.
Not a terrible re-do….just kinda pointless for the neighborhood.
I’ve heard from our Tucson people here (AZ Slim, etc.) how bad it has gotten there…and wow, they weren’t kidding…stuff for sale everywhere. AZ is really hitting the skids fast….The stories I see and hear in Phx and in Prescott, Flagstaff, etc. are quite…significant. When I drive up from Phx and pass the Anthem, I’m passing some very pissed off looking people with realtor signs on their Hummers…loads of RV’s, quads, boats, etc. for sale on every empty lot….
I feel like I see debt people everywhere.
The wheels are off the cart up north too, Catherine. Word is that Wells Fargo is sitting on a bunch of REOs in the Verde Valley. Short sales in Sedona, etc.
To all my new friends…Wells Fargo REO link.
http://tinyurl.com/35pndn
I see debt people
ROFLMAO
Next time a RE “professional” gives you attitude…tell her you just bought stock in Top Ramen and then ask her what her favorite flavor is…..
‘I’m not comfortable buying at this point, with some of the prices (sellers) are putting out there,’ she said. ‘I’m not going to take their fall.’
I love the fact that the herd creatures are going to read this in the paper, and more and more of them will think, “Ya know, this chick’s got a point.” The mass psychology has changed, and that’s a leading indicator that prices are headed down much further. The downward momentum will feed on itself and cause even more sheeple to sit it out. Hail the overcorrection!
MMMOOOOOO!!!
It was fun to parse the August MLS data: condos in downtown Seattle itself: for the first time–pendings down plus median down. With 150% YOY inventory jump, plus huge number of condos in the pipeline too…it may get pretty weird pretty fast.
I love this blog!!!! I’m totally addicted.
Same here. Sometimes I stay after work an hour or two just to get caught up (don’t have internet at home). It’s been nice being around people who think like I do, and who are a lot smarter than me.
I hurry home to read the blog…no life outside HBB!
We will be starting Housing Bubbles Anonymous meetings starting next week.
Hey Tom,
with all the CFC speculation, do you still think further layoffs are in the offing, or will the place just sputter along til it can declare bk? If CFC does bk, what happens to all the REOs on its balance sheet? Are they in suspension until a judge or trustee starts working on the case?
I don’t think they will go BK but I do know they need another liquidity injection. In exchange, they will probably agree to chop more staff.
As to the REO’s, those are assets on their books. Just like a homeowner who declares BK, CW has creditors. I can see Bank of America and all those doing liquidity injections holding lots of houses if they go under.
Layooffs are more likely. They company going BK? Probably not. I think if the stock goes from $9-$13 it might be a buy. You might want to buy some options.
“We will be starting Housing Bubbles Anonymous meetings starting next week. “
The voices tell me to decline the invitation.
I’m going to start a new social networking site.
housingbubblesingles.com
Going to my first auction next week, as I’d like to see how much houses sell for (if they meet the reserve) vs. what they’re listed for. Over 700 houses, mostly in Detroit:
http://www.hudsonandmarshall.com/auctionInfo.asp?auctionName=Michigan+%2D+700%2B+Properties&auctionID=367
Ben- In answer to your question “What do people in B’ham do for a living?” I’ve seen the median household income here reported as around 37K, I think. It seems to change everytime I look, depending on the source. 389K for a regular home in B’ham is just laughable, same as all the other bubble areas.
Yesterday I went to see a house with my silly friends who are “trying to sell” their overpriced Seattle home. While they looked at this junky property (300K in May, now down to 265K), I had a long chat with the realtor. We talked about how inflated prices were when compared with local incomes. She agreed that things were totally out of whack but spouted the typical realtor logic that “it doesn’t matter that locals can’t buy now because all homes will be sold to rich, out of state retirees whose buying power does not rely on wages”. Sound familiar? Also mentioned that it was a “buyers market”.
Once we moved beyond the scripted NAR - speak, she also told me about a ring of appraisal fraud that was being investigated in B’ham - for once, a realtor knew something about the housing market that I didn’t know!- Impressive.
And to think, I though only Klownifornia, NYC, and Taxachusetts were the only places selling for 10-11X annual income. Man, I have been gone too long!
I tend to somewhat disagree in regards to out-of-staters creating a ruckus with housing prices. My own home corner of the globe, East TN has seen a fair share of relo’s from FL and such Northeastern states like MA, PA, and a few Midwestern stragglers too like IN, MI, and OH.
The breakdown in people from these areas are as such:
A: priced out, young, and wanting kids, family. This is especially true for those from the Northeast and FL along with a few trickling in from the West Coast. These people are generally either working class or lower middle meaning they won’t make much of an impact price-wise. They’re just happy to actually afford something.
B: Out of work rust belt relo’s. These are folks from formerly prosperous manufacturing states like MI and OH that have worked for generations in plants. Again- these tend to be working class to lower middle. Once more, not much of a threat economically.
C: Retirees and as we call them- ” Snow birds”. These people concern me the most. Many made their big bucks in places like MA, NY, CA, and so on. Many have amassed massive equity in their homes, even if the prices went down. They all want the same things too- on a lake, river, beach, or some other picturesque fairyland landscape. They want cheap taxes and better healthcare. But the biggest problem is that if you ask most of them, they’ll tell you that 3-400k for a house in TN is a STEAL. That’s approximately 3-4 times the average price.
You get enough of group “C” in any single lower cost state and the scales will be tipped eventually. That’s why I hope for a major meltdown in terms of housing prices North of the Mason-Dixon and far west as well to quelch the flow.
“Some pockets saw inventories beyond the six-month mark that indicate the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market.”
Okay, who decided that 6 month’s inventory is a buyer’s market??? The same guy who decided that 10% down on the Dow was a “correction” and 20% a bear market? More pap from the shills to move inventory. Does anyone believe this crap?
The spigot that spawned all the CA equity locusts is now down to the occasional “drip”….
And yea, rich retirees are gonna flock to BELLINGHAM!!!??
What are they smoking?
Saw something interesting today — a car with a vanity license plate that read IMNDEPT, as if being in dept up to one’s ears is a badge of honor. Oh well, all I can say is that I’m glad it ain’t me!
Didn’t you realize Doug that Debt is the new wealth in this country. Well, actually debt is the new found wealth for people who really don’t have money AND spend like they have Gates or Buffet money.
Not sure what “dept” is, but being in debt is usually a bad thing.
Maybe this guy was in the police “department”, as in “don’t pull me over, brother in blue”
He is in Dept(artment) or Debt? I don’t get it.
There is a house going for auction in my neighborhood. It is a single family house 2300sq ft, Ryan’s Zachary model. This house was on sale 6 months back for close to 345K. Then it came down to 300K and is now up for auction. Every second house in this Washington Trail community in Martinsburg, WV is on sale. Ryan is offering the same house now for 230K plus half off options. Please suggest what should be the bidding price at the auction?
The auction is next month and I’m thinking of bidding 150K. The house is 2 years old with brick front, finished basement and upgraded kitchen.
I was going to say maybe 160.
Oh, everyone isn’t retiring to the Seattle area. They are hopping on the ferry and retiring to the “It’s different here, everybody wants to live here, the Americans all want to retire here, rich Albertans want second homes here” city of Victoria, BC. What the hell is wrong with all these idiots who spout that shit? Want to hear something even more embarrassing? Our new license plates (the Olympic ones that people can pay extra for the privilege of having on their car) say “The Greatest Place on Earth”. It makes me throw up a little in my mouth whenever I see one (thankfully, not to many morons seem to be going for this great new plate). I’ll keep my Beautiful British Columbia license plate, thank you. Beautiful, yes. The Greatest Place on Earth - that’s a laugh. Can you imagine the arrogance?
I can’t wait for the bubble to burst here. I feel no sympathy for any of the greedy suckers, either. Burn baby burn.
I spent last week in Vancouver, and I was told that those gleaming towers of vacant condos around False Creek are for the retirement of the world’s rich. Apparently, they want to spend a few months of each year in Canada when they’re not in Paris or Rome.
Are all those condo towers in Vancouver still filling up? I love Victoria - would love to live there - but Portland is very nice too.
They’re selling, but I think the vacancy rate is around 40%. Based on what I saw in Vancouver last week - Zero down financing and 35 year mortgages being advertised everywhere, and overbuilding that far exceeds anything in Seattle, when the downturn hits there, it’s going to hit HARD.
The better come to Portland instead.
Empty lofts everywhere. Big fat tall overpriced ones.
Still plenty of cranes building more.
Victoria, a city of about 300,000 with no major employers except the provincial government, is more expensive than Seattle. Vancouver BC, which is somewhat smaller than Seattle and has no world-class (or even Canadian-class) employers, is twice as expensive as Seattle.
And what kind of lifestyle do you get with that $400K downtown Victoria condo? Take a look. But that’s nothing compared to the war zone of Vancouver’s Downtown East Side, where the “in” crowd can live in places like this.
Sorry, first link is bad. Take a look.
So BC is the ‘greatest place on Earth’? and it says it on their license plates? Hmmm…I thought it was San Francisco, with their CBS affiliate (I think) slogan of a overly hyper guy yelling “CBS 3, THE BEST PLACE FOR NEWS IN THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH!!!”.
have tried to post, but must be doing something wrong, help please
I really can’t wait for the infamous NW rain to start pouring down on the asking prices of Seattle area condos. Check out some of these asking prices for a new condo complex in the Greenwood area:
11 - one bedrooms that range in size from 617 to 645 square feet and are priced between $259,990 and $299,990.
6 - one bedroom + dens are 751 square feet and priced between $294,990 and $339,990.
12 - two bedrooms are 948 square feet and range from $349,990 to $409,990.
The lone studio is 468 square feet and is offered at $199,990.
Ten bones shy of 200k gets you a whopping 468 sq foot slice of Seattle heaven. See, it is different here!!!
http://seattlecondosandlofts.com/
I am a real estate developer in Canada and have been watching this excellent blog for about six months. I think I may have a bit of perspective as I also have a very strong background in finance and would enjoy adding my little bit to this fine enterprisein exchange for all the stimulating thoughts I read here daily.
I had a question about the US/Candian dollar exhange rate a while ago. Will Canada allow the “loonie” to top the greenback? As a Canadian what is your take?
I’ll answer. The Bank of Canada (Canada’s “Fed”) is primarily concerned with controlling inflation. Canada does not have the domestic and foreign debt problems of the US and does not have a motive to inflate the C$. If the US$ continues to slide, the C$ could pass it - it’s only a nickel away now. The C$ was worth more in the 1970’s and there’s no reason it couldn’t happen again.
You’re welcome, Peter. Just don’t try to sell us on Canadian real estate which as you’ve no doubt noticed would be a futile endeavor with this crowd.
Peter,
How’s Bosa doing? They were going great guns some time back, even building towers in San Diego (once made a short-lived foray into Portland SFH too).
Pullman MLS
97 total listings, approximately 20 listings have been pulled in the past couple of weeks as people are giving up and waiting to sell next year “when the market picks up again”.
$300k - $700k, 21 listings, 1 pending
$250k - $299k, 23 listings, 2 pending
$200k - $249k, 25 listings, 4 pending
FOrgot about the “less than” symbol. To complete the post, 28 listings and 8 pending for the less than $200k category. And these listings don’t include most builder homes that aren’t usually on the MLS.
In neighboring Moscow, ID there are 128 MLS listings and ZERO pending offers.
Groundhogday,
This post is a bit redundant (see your previous comment), but I believe you once mentioned that you knew / worked with Glen Crellin. If that is the case, do you know how he is funded? Does WSU pay him a salary or is he funded by some Realtor Association? Some of us regulars at Seattle Bubble blog are curious.
The center (3 staff I think) is funded almost entirely by the Washington Association of Realtors.
Groundhogday,
Thanx for the response. You ought to come visit as Mr. Crellin was a subject of discussion awhile ago.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/
Specifically, some of us wondered about his objectivity in his articles. Being funded by WSU would have made his articles more credible due to lack of possible conflict of interest issues.
Why is the guy leaving the Harvard Enowment Fund?
I wonder how much money Harvard loss?
Again, the news on the ground in Seattle seems to be ahead of the published data by several months. I can count 4 friends who are in ‘pain’ with houses or townhouses for sale that aren’t selling for 6,9,12 months–all in desirable, close-in Seattle neighborhoods where ‘they aren’t making any more land.’ 2 of these that I’ve seen show great and don’t seem overpriced given the neighborhood comparables for this summer (of course I think they’re all overpriced). One is a 1930’s that needs renovation, has a lake view, but isn’t selling, despite this priced in and 4 price cuts totalling I think 21% now. Since just about anything close in is gonna require jumbos (unless you’re trading up from a big sale), and since the credit crunch is hitting at the same time, I wonder if we’re maybe up for a quicker u-turn (downward) than some other spots have seen.
Why on earth are they building condos all over? I would think they’d start building smaller houses if they’re trying to market to the retirees. No way in hell would I pay any money for a condo, that’s stupid. YOu pay the same amount of money for a house just so you can live in some apartment-dorm/stoner-central and listen to your neighbor fight with his/her/whatever lover or hear them blow out the bathroom. And you pay those stupid HOA fees and deal with the SS Nazi Homerowner Associations who don’t come across as live and let live from what I’ve seen. 468 sq feet is about the same size as your average living room. I suppose you could get a condo in Seattle for 100K but it’d be only 234 sq feet (about the size of my bedroom. You could call it your prison cell).
Ooga BOOGA!
UH OH!!! Turns out Seattle IS really truly different.
I just heard from a local RE agent that MicroSoft is coming out with an iPhone killer!!!
If this is anything close to their iPod killer it means MS will be hiring 100,000 new people!!!
It’s a great time to buy!!!!
Moose, LOL. Do you remeber a couple years back when the Seattle Realtors started that rumor about Microsoft plans to hire about 10,000 new workers? They really take the cake….no shame..none at all….
“…Seattle Realtors started that rumor about Microsoft plans to hire about 10,000 new workers?”
It wasn’t a lie. The Realtors just forgot to mention that the 10,000 workers would be in India.
There seems to be a lot of american and english speculaters driving up prices in our little town north of vancouver, canada. I imagine that these buyers might be using equity loans to purchase our formally lower priced real estate. Is it possible for them to hide these assets if they go into forclosure on thier principle residence? If so we don’t need these kind of neighbours.
I saw a recent FSBO advertisement that describes the mentality of many of the people in the Puget Sound: “840 sq. ft. straw bale house in co-housing community, $288,000.”
Straw bale house were 35 inches of rain fall every year? -Save the environment and make me rich by buying my goat shed.