The Housing Bubble

KOAA.com reports from Colorado. “Economist Fred Crowley says housing data shows 4.5% of people in Pueblo with mortgages are in foreclosure. ‘That’s a rather serious number, one out of 20 people that you run into who owns a home with a mortgage on it they’re having problems with the mortgage today,’ Crowley said. Crowley forecasts there will be a record 1,500 foreclosures in the Steel City this year.”

“He says the problem isn’t isolated. Despite the fact that El Paso County has a lower foreclosure rate than Pueblo, Crowley says 3,500 families in El Paso County, will likely go into foreclosure as well this year.”

“‘There’s a very serious foreclosure problem and a lot of people stand to lose everything,’ said Crowley.”

From News 11 in Colorado. “With the housing market in a slump, homeowners who are hoping to sell have major concerns. How do you sell without taking a financial hit? If you don’t have to sell right away, local experts recommend you wait for the housing market to rebound. But, if you do have to get rid of your house, be willing to lower the price.”

“Joseph Wooldridge put his Springs Ranch house on the market four months ago, and still hasn’t had any interested buyers. ‘Originally listed at $220,000. Now it’s at $199,000 and still very hard to get people in there,’ said Wooldridge.”

“Wooldridge is not alone. The housing market is down nationwide, including right here in Colorado Springs.”

“‘There’s more inventory on the market than there was a year ago,’ said broker Gary Beres. ‘If someone puts their house on the market today. We’re going to say, hey it could take us 270 days to sell it.’”

“‘For sale’ signs are popping up everywhere. More than 8,000 homes are for sale in El Paso County. Almost 6,000 of them are in Colorado Springs.”

The New Mexico Business Weekly. “The new home market is in a major slump nationally, but greater Albuquerque is merely seeing a lull that is being more or less weathered by large production and custom builders. The little guys, however, are finding it tougher to survive a lower demand.”

“‘This is one of those shake-out periods where the less successful don’t survive, which is not necessarily a bad thing,’ says Jim Folkman, executive VP of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico.”

“‘This downturn we’re in now is somewhat self-inflicted through ease of entry into the housing market,’ he says. ‘Creative financing, adjustable mortgages, the subprime market all created this squeeze. There’s an absence of capitalization in the mortgage markets because investors are withdrawing from it. They read the newspapers and they’re concerned this bubble is going to burst.’”

“‘We all like to think it’s short-lived, but we’ve been through these cycles before. We all seem to bounce back eventually. The longer it goes on, the more freaked out everyone gets,’ said Stan Strickman of land developer Curb South.”

“‘I know a couple of the production builders have gone presold only. That happens whenever the economy hiccups like this. They don’t want to be stuck with an unsold house,’ said Jack Milarch, CEO of the New Mexico Home Builders Association.”

“‘A lot of these guys were kicking ass and building lots of houses, and then they were caught in this slowdown,’ says Steve Nakamura, CEO of Rachel Matthew Homes. ‘There’s a lot of builders going out of business because they didn’t prepare for a slowdown. A lot of them are very intelligent builders, but sometimes they don’t have the business sense.’”

The Sierra Vista Herald from Arizona. “With the way the housing market is, William Johns isn’t looking to make a profit on his three-bedroom home in Vista View. After buying the home in 2005 for $133,573 and adding about $11,000 in improvements, he’s pricing his home at $144,600.”

“He has had good profits from the five homes he sold in recent years and even made a profit on a home he ‘flipped’ before he was able to add any improvements. But that was 2005, and now he just wants to break even. ‘I just gotta find the right person,’ he said.”

“Sellers need to be realistic when pricing their property, said Jean Giuffrida, branch manager for Long Realty in Sierra Vista. ‘They have to come to grips with not making as much as they thought they would,’ she said.”

“Building permits in Sierra Vista were down by about 66 percent in the past year. Other areas in Cochise County were lower by about 42 percent, according to the Southern Arizona Home Builders Association.”

“The housing slowdown has also had an impact on City Electric Supply, said manager Armand Celani. The residential builders are few and far between lately, he said. ‘Every contractor that comes in here says their housing (business) has really bottomed out,’ he said.”

“Some products, such as ‘exotic’ subprime mortgages, will no longer be available. ‘Many people wouldn’t be able to own a home if those aren’t available,’ said Phyllis Stroud, a mortgage loan specialist at E.F. Edwards Financial.”

“‘The world has returned to its sanity but we’re not out of the woods yet,’ said Phyllis’ husband Joe Stroud, a mortgage broker for E.F. Edwards Financial.”

“Many borrowers will probably still be dealing with the repercussions of subprime loans and adjustable rate mortgage loans in the next year, and that could continue the trend of high foreclosure rates, Joe Stroud said.”

“Arizona has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country due to defaulted loans. Although foreclosure rates in Sierra Vista are higher than usual but not dramatically so, said Melissa Clayton, president of the Southeastern Arizona Association of Realtors. Homes priced under $200,000 and over $350,000 aren’t as affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, she said.”

“‘It’s the middle that’s a glut in the market right now,’ Clayton said.”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “In the second quarter 2007, 3.55 percent of Arizona mortgages were past due, a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association shows. That’s up from a 2.44 percent delinquency rate during the same period last year.”

“‘Some people are waking up and finding that their mortgage payments are double or even triple,’ said Jason Meyers, a spokesman for Desert Schools Federal Credit Union. Others owe more than their homes are now worth.”

“In the past month, the credit union has received a couple hundred phone calls from distressed Valley borrowers in danger of defaulting on mortgages they received from other lenders, Meyers said.”

“Some financially stretched borrowers were counting on their equity to keep increasing. Others didn’t realize that their loans had hefty penalties — as much as $20,000 in one case —for paying off the loans early.”

“‘A lot of these lenders have basically made it impossible for people to get out of these bad loans,’ Meyers said.”

“Investors have also played a roll in the delinquency problem, said Greg Geenen, VP of the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. Arizona has a disproportionate number of investors, and they’re more likely to walk away from properties, Geenen said.”

“‘We’re just scratching the surface of the potential ramifications of all of these foreclosures,’ Geenen said. ‘It’s going to spread.’”

The Arizona Republic. “Chandler, Mesa and the city of Maricopa had more single-family permits taken out for the first half of this year than they did during the same period in 2006. Prices for new homes have dropped into the $130,000s in Maricopa, which will likely entice more buyers.”

“‘The market continues to be more challenging than anyone expected at this stage of the year,’ said housing analyst RL Brown. ‘I think the bottom line is that until the real estate market gets back to some balance between listings and sales, and confidence and liquidity are enhanced, we are not going to see much change in the new home market. We have got too many houses for sale. That’s the bottom line.’”

“The number of new and existing homes for sale has been rising every month. In the Southeast Valley, it hit 19,214 in July according to the Arizona Regional MLS.”

Marketplace on Arizona. “Scott Jagow: ‘The Census Bureau comes out with some new figures on the housing market today. They’ll show us where the most growth occurred between 2005 and 2006. I can tell you the answer already: In the South and the West, places like Florida and Arizona. Those just happen to be the same places that are now seeing record numbers of foreclosures.’”

“Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University, is thinking about the good old days because today, according to Foreclosures.com, Pinal County has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation.’”

“Butler: ‘The problem is when the market swings, it tends to swing widely in the same sections. You know, it’s a star today and a bust tomorrow.’”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “The inventory of homes for sale on the Multiple Listing Service grew 1.1 percent in August to 24,341, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported. Realtors reported 1,316 single-family home sales during the month, down 37.2 percent from August 2006.”

“David Lampe of Coldwell Banker Wardley said homes will sell if owners adjust their prices, he said. ‘You have to price the home properly and market the home properly,’ he said. ‘Not all 24,000 homes (on the MLS) are properly priced. Lots of people put their home on the market but not to sell. They’re still thinking three years back.’”

“Lampe said people who understand the market don’t mind ‘taking a hit’ on their current home because they know they’re going to make it back on their next home.”