September 14, 2007

The Overvalue Has Definitely Decreased In Florida

The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “Last year, a Brandon townhouse seemed like the perfect investment for Richard Wojciechowski. He bought a 1,700-square-foot Sabal Pointe home and listed it at $229,000. The retired banker thought it would be an easy sell. But 14 months later, in Hillsborough’s slowest housing market in seven years, the place is still for sale.”

“Realtors have persuaded Wojciechowski to drop the price to $204,900. That’s more than $15,000 lower than the median home sale price in Brandon last quarter, and it’s as low as he wants to go.”

“‘Everything went downhill after I bought, so I got stuck,’ said Wojciechowski, of Chicago. ‘I’m not interested in taking a loss. The mortgage is killing me every month.’”

“Hillsborough County’s noticeable price declines last quarter occurred in neighborhoods where home builders were most active during the boom.”

“Today, areas like South Shore, Riverview, the Race Track Road corridor and New Tampa may have the largest surpluses of houses to unload. They also may have some of the largest numbers of investor-owners, because that’s where homes were available when the 2005 buying frenzy mobilized speculators.”

“‘Those are the areas that came down the most, because the prices were the most inflated,’ said Kristy Darragh, a New Tampa Realtor.”

“Anthony Teta tried lowering the price on his 1,400-square-foot Brandon home. He started at $229,000 and went to $189,000. ‘I was coming down to a break-even point,’ he said. But with nearby builders offering major incentives, Teta felt he could not compete.”

“A real estate Web site still lists his house as ‘priced to sell.’ Teta took the ‘For Sale’ sign down weeks ago. ‘I love the house. I love the neighborhood,’ he said. ‘I had to remind myself of that. I’m going to be happy to stay there for longer.’”

“Brad Monroe, a New Tampa Realtor, tells the 48 agents in his Coldwell Banker office that home prices should be dropping about 1 percent a month. But they catch resistance from sellers. ‘They don’t want to lose their paper gains,’ Monroe said.”

“Realtors say many clients cannot afford to lose those gains, because they obtained home-equity loans, borrowing against the soaring value of the house. ‘They paid for boats, and BMWs and trips and whatever,’ Tampa Realtor Ginger Perkins said.”

“Many sellers in Old Seminole Heights have too much invested to concede prices, says broker Mike Massimini. ‘People have bought the homes, spent several years fixing it up, financed, and now they’re in the situation where they have to sell it at almost full price.’”

The Miami Herald. “When Micheline Louis-Charles bought a house in North Miami 20 years ago, her salary was enough to pay her mortgage and raise five kids.”

“But since then, her monthly house payment, which includes mortgage, taxes and insurance, has doubled to $1,200 a month, and her income has not kept pace. She rents out a room in her three-bedroom house to help cover costs.”

“‘Everything goes toward the house. I survive in a very hard way,’ said Louis-Charles. When asked if she has thought of selling her house, she says, simply: ‘Where would I go?’”

The Sun Sentinel. “Home builder Hovnanian Enterprises is trotting out big bargains this weekend, in Palm Beach County and other areas nationwide, to cope with the worst housing slump in 16 years.”

“The builder is advertising a national ‘Deal of the Century’ sales event that involves thousands of homes, including some in Boynton Beach and Royal Palm Beach.”

“Buyers can expect price reductions and other incentives worth as much as $50,000 at each of the developments on Southern Boulevard, said Mark Hodges, president of Hovnanian’s South Florida division.”

“‘We’ve told our sales staff to be ready to sit down with everyone who walks in the door and find a way to get them into the home,’ Hodges said.”

“The largest discounts nationally are on the most expensive homes, including a three-bedroom condominium by the Hudson River in West New York, which has been reduced $240,000, or 22 percent, to $862,000 this weekend. A 25 percent discount is being offered on a two-bedroom home in Jackson Township, N.J., which lowers its price tag to $300,501.”

“Keith Gumbinger, VP of a consumer loan research firm found the sale remarkable, given low mortgage rates. ‘You wouldn’t think there is a need to go to the marketplace with such discounts,’ he said. ‘This is a pretty good indication from a prominent homebuilder that the market is troubled.’”

The Coloradoan. “One of the home builders linked to Norlarco Credit Union’s pile of delinquent loans is offering six-figure discounts on some of its properties this weekend as it attempts to draw interest in slumping markets.”

“Hovnanian Enterprises’ sales blitz involves dropping prices by more than 20 percent on some of its prime real estate, including in Florida, where Norlarco has issued numerous construction loans for Hovnanian property.”

“Borrowers have left Norlarco with $70 million in delinquent loans, many of them in Lee County, Fla. In Lehigh Acres alone, Hovnanian First Homes is offering almost 60 spec homes for between $143,000 and $200,000.”

“Swollen inventories are likely to lead to more discounting, said Sam Chandan, chief economist a real estate research firm.”

“‘We’ve certainly seen conditions in the housing market continue to deteriorate in the last several months,’ Chandan said. ‘The downward adjustment in prices, whether for new homes or existing homes, is going to be far more severe than what many people thought earlier this year.’”

“This weekend’s sales involves thousands of homes in 19 states.”

“‘We think it will effectively overcome the malaise that people have been carrying around since the subprime debacle occurred in late February,’ said Michael Skea, VP of marketing and sales for the Hovnanian’s northeast sector. ‘It’s just a matter of getting the buying public to realize this is a great time to buy.’”

The News Press. “Southwest Florida’s homes are still overpriced — but they’re a far better buy than they were a year ago, according to a national survey released this week.”

“Homes in Lee County, now the 95th most overpriced of 330 markets nationwide, were overvalued by 23.3 percent in the second quarter of 2007, compared to 38.8 percent a year earlier, according to the report by Global Insight/National City Corp.”

“In the same time period, prices in the area fell from a median single-family-home price of $298,700 to $230,000.”

“The Naples area was still overpriced by 49.5 percent at $376,000, making it the 17th most overvalued market in the country. But that’s still a big improvement from a year earlier, when it was ranked eighth: overpriced by 65.5 percent at $393,600.”

“Charlotte County, in 54th place, was over by 32.6 percent with a median home price of $193,900, improved from 56 percent over at $212,400.”

“Southwest Florida’s numbers are cause for optimism, said Jamie Pirrello, president of Fort Myers-based Vision Homes USA. ‘I actually felt, ‘Wow, maybe we’re finally approaching close to bottom,’ he said. ‘Clearly the amount we’re overvalued has definitely decreased.’”

“Prices are coming back to what people can actually afford to pay, he said. ‘One of the reasons that things get overvalued is that they get out of alignment with incomes,’ Pirrello said. ‘If you look back a couple years, incomes haven’t kept up with massive increases in price.’”

“As for the future, Pirrello said any recovery of the market in Lee County will depend on reducing the inventory of 23,551 houses and condos that are for sale through Realtors here. There’s room for optimism, he said, noting that the price of land and home construction costs have been falling lately.”

From Wink TV. “A well known real estate analyst came to Naples today in an attempt to bring some hope to the slow housing market.”

“Lawrence Yun, the Senior Economist for the National Association of Realtors…says real estate agents, as well as the public should not be disturbed by the lack of sales in Collier County. He believes things will pick up in the next year, and even more in the distant future.”

“Some real estate agents tell WINK News the market just keeps getting worse.”

“Yun says, if you buy now you’ll be better off later. ‘It looks like over the long term, twenty years from now it looks like Naples will be commanding very high price in the country,’ said Yun.”

“Yun also predicts renters beginning to buy once they realize the cost of rent is just about as much as a monthly mortgage payment.”




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182 Comments »

Comment by Tom
2007-09-14 06:44:57

My friend is paying $1400 for a rental from a friend. There is a house down the street fro her that is bigger and better that has been on the market for a month at a rate of $1150. I told her to move or negotiate for a lower rent. This was her comment in reference to negotiate a cheaper rent payment.

I asked, are they going to lower it?

And she said, “no of course not, they are alrady losing money every month with what I am paying now.”

This is in the Tampa area.

Comment by qt
2007-09-14 07:25:45

tell her to move and save $300/month. I guess she is loyal to her friend but dammit you got to think about yourself too.

Comment by JP
2007-09-14 07:30:27

A friend that needs you to pay $3600/year to him/her is no friend.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-09-14 07:59:05

Yeah, she should move immediately. What can an FB wannabe landlord do to her anyway? She owes it to herself to act in her own best interest.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2007-09-14 07:30:29

Tell her to get a 2 Years lease at $1150 plus a option to renew for $50 more….then she will be protected when they sell. Somebody will have to PAY HER to move and break her lease.

Also do not pay first and last months rent to a FB. Renters must learn to protect themselves, maybe even get a credit report on the “landlord”

 
Comment by Tom
2007-09-14 07:50:08

I almost want to say, “do your friend a favor and move out. It will help her die quickly rather than bleed a slow and painful death.”

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2007-09-14 06:56:23

“‘Everything went downhill after I bought, so I got stuck,’ said Wojciechowski, of Chicago. ‘I’m not interested in taking a loss. The mortgage is killing me every month.’”

- ‘ The retired banker’ … I take that to acutally mean that he was the bank security guard! If he acutually worked in the bank as a manager - withdrawal all of your deposits.

Comment by spike66
2007-09-14 07:08:13

Sobay,
my thought exactly. How do you reconcile “I’m not interested in taking a loss” with “the mortgage is killing me”?
Smart money cuts losses fast; dumb money just stands there and gets eaten alive.

Comment by Blano
2007-09-14 07:34:24

He’d prefer death by 1,000 cuts to an immediate one. Go figure.

Comment by SNJMark
2007-09-14 07:39:07

It’s worse than that. It’s more like the number of cuts increases each month.

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Comment by gather no moss
2007-09-14 07:59:59

“…said Wojciechowski, of Chicago. ‘I’m not interested in taking a loss. ”

What a coincidence, I’m not interested in overpaying.

Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-09-14 11:06:35

Moss, your killin’ me!!! ROTFLMAO

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Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 11:50:07

Good one.

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Comment by salinasron
2007-09-14 09:33:22

“I’m not interested in taking a loss”

I love it! Interested or not doesn’t count, the loss is on the books, it’s just a matter of how big you want your loss to be; obviously, hugh.

Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 10:45:42

He’s taking more of a loss every month that he pays interest, taxes and insurance. If that totals say $1000 a month, then every month he holds on he’s losing not only the $1000, but the value of the property keeps going down too. He’s going to need to live to 90 to catch up.

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Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 07:09:20

He and Anthony Teta could be twin poster boys of the Florida Housing Bust:
Teta took the ‘For Sale’ sign down weeks ago. ‘I love the house. I love the neighborhood,’ he said. ‘I had to remind myself of that. I’m going to be happy to stay there for longer.’”

How many other homeowners in FLA have to convince themselves they love their house, now that they know they’re stuck in it for the next 20 years?

Comment by Drowning Pool
2007-09-14 07:25:31

“Teta took the ‘For Sale’ sign down weeks ago. ‘I love the house. I love the neighborhood,’ he said. ‘I had to remind myself of that. I’m going to be happy to stay there for longer.’”

How many other homeowners in FLA have to convince themselves they love their house, now that they know they’re stuck in it for the next 20 years? ”

Retired banker + 20 years = pushing up the daisies behind his Florida trailer sh1tbox. RIP Teta, Rest in Poverty! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

 
Comment by Lisa
2007-09-14 09:47:14

“How many other homeowners in FLA have to convince themselves they love their house, now that they know they’re stuck in it for the next 20 years?”

Exactly, how lovable is it to make decades of payments on something that is nowhere near worth what you paid for it.

 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-09-14 08:06:47

A lot of bankers are some of the biggest financial dimwits you will ever meet.

Comment by Houstonstan
2007-09-14 10:16:37

I remember one on my MBA course who couldn’t get to grips with a spreadsheet.

Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-09-14 11:10:12

I had an MBA working for me that couldn’t understand the principal of votes and control in an “S” corp.

I owned a minority share on an “S” corp but I controlled the majority vote, subsequently I win any arguement.

I still don’t think he understands the situation.

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Comment by JayInMD
2007-09-14 17:04:51

So Darth,

Are saying that you control your wife and kids? :)

 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-09-15 09:27:37

Jay;

No wife and my youngest kid just turned 30.

So, no I don’t control them. In fact I never did. Point taken.

 
 
Comment by Anonymous Coward
2007-09-14 12:27:40

I think part of the problem with MBA programs is that most of the assignments are done in groups. I have no problem believing that GWB got an MBA from Harvard. I did a top 5 MBA, and there was a woman in my group who was intellectually incapable of completing a single assigment on her own. Ivy league degrees are bought, just like everything else these days.

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Comment by snake charmer
2007-09-14 08:59:17

This is another example of the “Sukhram Syndrome;” just your typical idiot making a last stand against reality and hoping against hope that he isn’t ruined. As an out-of-state speculator I bet he didn’t even see the property before he bought it with money drawn from his 401(k).

Actually, my favorite barbeque joint is in Brandon. There are a whole bunch of new townhouses right across the street from the outdoor smoker, and I bet they smell like charcoal briquets by now.

Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 10:50:38

Actually, my favorite barbeque joint is in Brandon. There are a whole bunch of new townhouses right across the street from the outdoor smoker, and I bet they smell like charcoal briquets by now.

But isn’t living close to the eateries and shops supposed to be what buyers are looking for. I know I would just love all the smoke and traffic in my neighborhood.

 
 
 
Comment by Ex-Californian
2007-09-14 06:58:59

Market report for the “Forgotten Coast” of Florida (Cape San Blas, Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, etc.)

We were there this last weekend. “For Sale” signs EVERYWHERE. Talked to the locals and they all said the same thing: The market stopped earlier this year. NOTHING is selling… And since this is mostly second homes and “investment” properties, the owners are all dumping at the same time.

I’m not kidding. I’ve never seen so many signs. Street after street. In the good part of town and in the not so good parts, too. Beach properties are all either on the market or looking for renters (at $800-$1,000K a week… LOL).

It is ugly, real ugly. And it’s only going to get worse… The “selling” season (summer) is just over. Get ready for a looooooooooong winter!

Got popcorn?

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 07:48:24

To be fair, Florida usually has a bit of a selling season from about November to May. Trust me, selling and moving during a Florida summer blows chunks. Been there, done that.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-09-14 08:23:18

Summer is NOT the selling season in Florida. It’s November to May, when all the snowbirds are there.

Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 10:56:04

I would think selling in the summer in FL would be like selling in the winter up north. Regardless, about mid November the market shuts down everywhere until Jan because of the holidays. Most people don’t want to move during the holidays.

 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-09-14 11:18:00

The is a summer spike in the local market due to families with children wanting to move before school starts. Also, summer is one of the peak tourist seasons, which helps RE sales.

The winter season is a little bigger but in a “normal market” its been good year round.

In this market is has sucked since the beginning of 06 and continues to slide. Presantly, there is no seasonality, so anyone waiting for the “Spring upswing” is smoking crack.

Florida hit worse than most states in this downturn.

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-14 08:59:45

Port St. Joe and Cape San Blas are my old stomping grounds…saw it coming years ago. St Joe, I believe the largest land owner in FL, began selling off it’s tree farms. I think they zoned them into 20ac parcels at first. Sure use to be a beautiful place. Sigh.

 
Comment by tampaesq
2007-09-14 10:37:29

If you look at the numbers by volume, April-July are overwhelmingly the strongest months in Tampa. I don’t think that snowbirds factor into the equation as much here - Tampa is toast.

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 10:53:31

Talked to a realtor here in Ohio this morning whose also my husband’s substitute secretary at school. She said she sold 6 houses the first half of the year and in June it was someone closed the curtain.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2007-09-14 07:03:23

“Tampa may have the largest surpluses of houses to unload”.

I love how they refer to selling a house as “unloading”… Hey, you Dumb Azz home buyer come on over here and let me unload this overpriced turd on you.

Comment by essessemm
2007-09-14 07:31:24

It’s “Snap-Up” when things are going up and “Unload” on the other side.

 
 
Comment by spike66
2007-09-14 07:18:02

Retail down, pain spreading.

“Sales at retailers rose a smaller-than-expected 0.3 percent in August and they recorded the biggest decline in almost a year when car sales were stripped out, a government report showed on Friday.
Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales fell 0.4 percent last month, the sharpest drop since September 2006, the Commerce Department said.”
(NYTimes this am.)

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-09-14 08:03:33

Already posted this in bits - but everyone please remember - not two weeks ago the buzz was about a strong finish to “back-to-school” shopping.

At this stage the retail reality must be so bad that its own propagandists can’t even stay on message for longer than two weeks.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-14 08:25:15

I don’t recall “back to school” shopping being that big of a deal when I was growing up. Mom took me to the store, I picked out a few notebooks and a new outfit or two, she paid for it, then we went home. She was danged if she was going to put herself in hock just because I was returning to school.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-09-14 08:41:07

Lesseee, what “shopping seasons” have I picked out of the MSM during the past few years - corrections and additions are welcome.

There’s Halloween coming - last year it was the biggest holiday for retail outside of xmas.

Of course there’s the holiest of holys - the two month binge leading up to xmas.

Superbowl - gotta git a big screen and snax for the big game.

President’s Day sales.

Spring break/March Madness - not so much for retail but big for travel and other consumption.

Easter/Spring - even this largely abandoned holiday still spurs plenty of sales.

Memorial Day/The 4th/Labor Day - stainless mega-grills and other junk

And back we are to “Back-to-School”

It’s always a good time to shop, Slim!

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Comment by ET-chicago
2007-09-14 08:55:04

Sadly, you’re right on the money regarding ’round the calendar shopping.

Sigh.

 
Comment by Premature Curmudgeon
2007-09-14 09:35:39

What about Flag Day and Arbor Day?

 
Comment by DC in LBV
2007-09-14 11:27:46

And don’t forget about Valentines day, or you will really end up paying for it.

 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-09-14 08:58:15

Now tweens are demanding (I love when I hear about kids demanding) designer duds and the schools are demanding tons of materials now. I grew up near UCLA - a pretty upper middle class area at the time. We had 3 pairs of shoes - school, play & dress up. That was normal. Anyone with an older house knows the difference in the size of closets. And - horrors of horrors - my brothers shared a bedroom.

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Comment by Blano
2007-09-14 09:05:54

A few weeks ago my daughter (14) called me and said she wanted me to take her shopping for some clothes. I said fine, but we’re going to the Salvation Army because there’s plenty of decent stuff and money is tight. “Whaaaaaaat?” was her initial response. Then a few seconds of silence, then “if you take me to Target I’ll spend my own money.” I know you had to be there, but it was rather humorous.

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:00:59

I have a rather wealthy friend and she used to tell her kids that if they bought back to school clothes at the mall they could get 3 outfits. If they went to Value City they could get 7.

 
 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2007-09-14 19:36:58

“She was danged if she was going to put herself in hock just because I was returning to school.” My mother solved that one by telling me to get a job at 15. Then she didn’t buy me any outfits.

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2007-09-14 19:46:48

But that was in the 70s when even my friend who’s Dad owned a big chunck of the town was working right next to me. It was the way they broke us in back then.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2007-09-14 19:48:19

chunck=chunk

 
Comment by not a gator
2007-09-15 07:11:30

Back to school shopping? Ha! I wore a lot of my classmates’ older siblings’ hand-me-downs! With multiple siblings, and then one of them going through cancer (he survived and is quite well now, although he’s struggling to graduate from college), the neighbors saw us as a charity case–and, with multiple children and only one income to support them with, my mother was not too proud to accept. (Though she did grumble.)

I hated shopping with my mom, anyway … we would spend hours comparing quality and prices to buy a simple basic like a pair of jeans after I’d busted the last set of patches. Once I had a job, most of it went to tuition and books but I did spend some quality time in thrift stores. (Of course, we repaired old clothes with needle and thread, but there’s not much you can do about threadbare.)

Nowadays I could theoretically buy some clothing new, but the fashions are so awful that I go to the thrift store to find some clothing I actually like. Btw, clothing retailers were in trouble before the bubble burst: it’s the product, stupid.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Devildog
2007-09-14 07:18:30

“But with nearby builders offering major incentives, Teta felt he could not compete.”

I just don’t get these idiots. Where else do people think they can buy retail, jack up the price and then make a killing? Idiots.

Comment by MassBubbleGirl
2007-09-14 07:49:47

okay, Teta means booby or tit in Spanish…Ben, you are making these names up, aren’t you?

Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 08:39:12

no, my friend’s grandkids call her “teta”…I think it means Grandmom in Arabic.

wait, if you think about it, “tit” and “grandma” kind of go together…

Comment by Blano
2007-09-14 09:11:27

I knew an Arab guy who, when he was a kid, had his teacher call him “unique” a number of times one day, trying to make him feel special. However, “unique,” or something similar to it, means “homosexual” in Arabic.

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Comment by Devildog
2007-09-14 10:43:33

Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

 
Comment by in Colorado
2007-09-14 21:48:33

Not if you are Muslim. I believe that they still execute homosexuals in some middle east nations.

 
 
Comment by MassBubbleGirl
2007-09-14 09:12:48

Hey, my husband is Colombian, I know what teta means in Spanish, believe me…I also have a Masters degree in the Spanish language, so believe me when I say that Teta means boob…tetaza is huge boob and tetica is a small one… no comments please ;)

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Comment by tampaesq
2007-09-14 10:41:54

I’m glad some other folks here picked up on that. It was the first thing that came to my mind…What an idiot. My husband likes to refer to humongus (usually fake) boobs as “tetongas”.

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:02:50

LOL I picked up on it and my spanish is rusty.

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 12:01:19

…”Fellow HBBers, may I present to you Lady White Trash FB and her daughters Tetaza, Tetica, and Tetonga…”

 
Comment by charliegator in Gainesville, FL
2007-09-14 13:37:25

I love this blog!

 
 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-09-14 11:23:07

Thanks for that visual. The picture of my Grandmothers “tit” has replaced Viet Nam in my nightmares.

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Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 11:51:50

LOL for real

 
 
 
 
Comment by AZ-IT
2007-09-14 08:40:57

After looking around apparently they thought they could do it *almost* everyewhere. I think they might have missed a couple spots, but they sure do seem to have been turning over every rock to see if there was enough dirt under it to stick another “investment” house…

 
Comment by not a gator
2007-09-15 07:13:31

I just don’t get these idiots. Where else do people think they can buy retail, jack up the price and then make a killing? Idiots.

Because their house is special.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-14 07:18:46

“Yun says, if you buy now you’ll be better off later. ‘It looks like over the long term, twenty years from now it looks like Naples will be commanding very high price in the country,’ said Yun.”

Do The Math…

Statute of Limitations is 7 years, subtract from 20

That leaves us 13 years of bad luck.

Comment by ed in texas
2007-09-14 07:30:24

You can bleed an AWFUL LOT in 20 years.

 
Comment by qt
2007-09-14 07:32:49

So doesn’t that mean I should wait? So I’ll buy now and wait for 20 years until the next boom? Why can’t I wait 20 years and buy at the beginning of the next housing boom (i.e., 2000, 1983).

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 07:45:07

This guy Yun is either a bigger idiot than Liareah or he’s reading this blog and saying these things just to piss us off.

But, assuming he’s an idiot, I’m surprised the NAR would continue to let him spout this verbal diarrhea, especially considering he’s damaging his own organization by doing so. Clearly, he’s so disconnected from the markets in which he is giving his speeches. Some of the local realtors know the score, but Yun just breezily ignores it. Did anyone tell him that taxes and insurance are rabid in FLA? Has anyone informed him that people just don’t make that much money here?

Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 07:54:24

After I read today’s Yun comments, I felt like I wanted to apply for his job. What a dream gig: say whatever smacked-as$ stuff you want and still draw a pretty good salary.

Or maybe he is just trying to piss us off, or maybe make us roll on the floor with laughter.

Comment by yogurt
2007-09-14 08:20:39

“Yun also predicts renters beginning to buy once they realize the cost of rent is just about as much as a monthly mortgage payment.”

Hey don’t be so hard on the guy, he almost got this part right - just add taxes, insurance, etc.

So how much of a haircut on the price is that going to take?

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Comment by invest3
2007-09-14 12:06:25

In a normal housing market with 20% down on a fixed rate, the mortgage payment was usually lower than rent, which is why people desired to be owners, not speculators. It was easier on the household budget. Prices have to fall much further to get back to normal and there’s no guarantee they’ll stop at “normal.”

 
 
 
Comment by essessemm
2007-09-14 08:16:10

“I’m surprised the NAR would continue to let him spout this verbal diarrhea, especially considering he’s damaging his own organization by doing so.”

He’s saying these things BECAUSE he represents the NAR. this guy probably has a tough time sleeping at night.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-09-14 09:12:14

I think his most remarkable comment came earlier this year in a speech to realtors in Ft. Myers, when he said that by 2050 the average house there would be worth $10 million. I posted the link here before but can’t seem to find it.

Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 10:38:19

Larry Yun predicts:

“In the year 2050 the average house in Fort Myers will be worth…(crooking pinky finger up to cheek):

ONE MILLION DOLLARS”

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Comment by sf jack
2007-09-14 10:42:59

Well… if Mr. Bernanke and the couple of Fed chairs who follow him do their jobs “as well” as Mr. Greenspan did (an overly accommodative policy), we may just have enough new dollars and consequent inflation between now and 2050 for Mr. Yun to be correct in his prediction.

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Comment by flatffplan
2007-09-14 08:27:52

does yun get a pass on grammar too ?
you fly high”

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-14 09:04:44

I secretly wonder if Ben post Yun commentary to rile us…LOL. JK.

 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-09-14 11:29:33

“Homes in Lee County, now the 95th most overpriced of 330 markets nationwide, were overvalued by 23.3 percent in the second quarter of 2007, compared to 38.8 percent a year earlier, according to the report by Global Insight/National City Corp.”

“In the same time period, prices in the area fell from a median single-family-home price of $298,700 to $230,000.”

“The Naples area was still overpriced by 49.5 percent at $376,000, making it the 17th most overvalued market in the country. But that’s still a big improvement from a year earlier, when it was ranked eighth: overpriced by 65.5 percent at $393,600.”

“Charlotte County, in 54th place, was over by 32.6 percent with a median home price of $193,900, improved from 56 percent over at $212,400.”

“Southwest Florida’s numbers are cause for optimism, said Jamie Pirrello, president of Fort Myers-based Vision Homes USA. ‘I actually felt, ‘Wow, maybe we’re finally approaching close to bottom,’ he said. ‘Clearly the amount we’re overvalued has definitely decreased.’”

Hey, Jamie, you’re still over valued, meaning there is no buying frenzy on deck.

In other words “We’re dead, just not as dead as we were last year”

In all honestly it is a positive move, IF the numbers are accurate.

 
Comment by Chicho
2007-09-14 18:05:07

Nobody in Naples will live another 20 years. The average age is about 70.

 
Comment by Chicho
2007-09-14 18:05:24

Few people in Naples will live another 20 years. The average age is about 70.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 07:21:43

“But since then, her monthly house payment, which includes mortgage, taxes and insurance, has doubled to $1,200 a month, and her income has not kept pace. She rents out a room in her three-bedroom house to help cover costs.”

The article does not make clear WHY her monthly house payment has doubled. Did she re-finance or HELOC? Or have taxes and insurance alone caused the increase? Too bad the writers did not see fit to clarify this point.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 07:24:03

Or does she have an ARM? GAHHH! The suspense is killing me.

Comment by Lurkeeloo
2007-09-14 07:43:51

Yes, those were my thoughts too. She could afford it 20 years ago, but not now? We are supposed to feel sorry for all these people who extracted equity and spent it all. I’m thinking she was living within her means before, and then (just because she could), she decided to pre-spend her retirement. Maybe these people should join Gamblers Anonymous.

Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 07:58:18

“Realtors say many clients cannot afford to lose those gains, because they obtained home-equity loans, borrowing against the soaring value of the house. ‘They paid for boats, and BMWs and trips and whatever,’

Yep, a whole lot of “whatever” was acquired.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-09-14 08:05:55

And most jobs today rely on people doing “whatever”.

 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:08:11

Yes, those were my thoughts too. She could afford it 20 years ago, but not now?

Exactly. If she owned it 20 years ago why isn’t it almost paid off. ARM’s would have reset to max many years back. It has to be heloc’d with an ARM to above it’s value. I’ve been in my house 21 years and prices were not very high back then. My house is paid for; what’s she done with her money?

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Comment by are they crazy
2007-09-14 09:02:31

Shouldn’t that sucker be nearly paid off after 20 years? The MSM is so lazy. Why don’t the ask her how this could be? Why don’t they tell the whole story of how she sucked the money out of the house?

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-14 09:17:47

I attempted to look her up on the Miami-Dade property list. Her name did not appear?
Leigh

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-14 09:25:15

Got HER! She’s in Broward. Do not die of suspense Palm,
read er and weep.
Smiles,
Leigh
http://www.bcpa.net/RecSearch.asp
3/2/2006 WD $175,000 41682 1407
8/11/2005 WD $141,800 40429 850
8/31/2000 WD $60,000 30851 1701
12/17/1997 WD $41,200 27471 668
10/16/1995 WD $43,000 24068 866

Comment by are they crazy
2007-09-14 09:27:54

I knew it - I guess it’s too much trouble for MSM to do such fact checking and give a complete story. She sucked the life out of that house.

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Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 12:07:11

I thought “WD” meant Warranty Deed (Transfer of ownership).

In the FAQs, this:

“Why does your website display my Social Security Number?

Actually, it is NOT our office displaying the Social Security Number (SSN) you saw online on your deed — even though you followed a link from our website to view the deed — because the website displaying your deed is NOT affiliated with the Property Appraiser’s Office. The website displaying your deed is operated by the Broward County Records Division (954.831.4000). To have County Records remove your SSN from the displayed documents, please click here to request they remove your SSN and other protected information.”

Wonder how many owners know that their SSN is accessible to the public by default.

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Comment by OutofSanDiego
2007-09-14 07:32:49

Palmetto,… you probably know better than me, but wouldn’t her property taxes be realatively next to nothing? If she bought 20 years ago, she probably paid an extremely low price for her home and has been protected by the “Save our Homes” and “Homestead” programs. I’m sure her insurance has gone up, but I bet the real culprit is a few cash out refinances over the last few years. Otherwise, she shouldn’t be having any problems.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 08:00:11

Good point, OutofSanDiego. Yep, she must have cashed out.

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 07:29:38

“Hillsborough County’s noticeable price declines last quarter occurred in neighborhoods where home builders were most active during the boom.”

Yes, that would be in my neck of the woods. But it still doesn’t do me any good, because it is all relative. So what if the builder/developer homes are declining in price? We’re talking probably $25,000 to $50,000 off a $300,000 to $200,000 home. Big deal. I’m waiting to see those little concrete block pre-1980s shacks go from the laughable $100,000 to $150,000 price range to the $50,000 to $75,000 price range. Now that’s what I’m talking about.

Comment by Increduoous
2007-09-14 07:40:13

Hi Palmetto,

I’m not sure this will happen. A flipper I know (who justifies his prices because he “fixes” the places up), sold tiny concrete POS off Nebraska and near Hillsborough Avenue in a slum neighborhood last year for $160,000. He paid $60,000 or $80,000, I can’t remember. The place had no grass in its nasty little yard, and the appliances were ancient. I think the square footage was about 700, maybe less (so we’re talking $200+ per square foot to live in a dump in a slum district). Some poor person, I suppose, with the city’s help, bought it. The flipper’s partner is a mortgage broker.

The house and yard combined were not worth $25,000. The neighborhood is the kind of place one associates with crack deals.

Comment by Robert in Florida
2007-09-14 08:11:28

yes!!! crack and hookers just a short walk away. The police are constantly doing drug and prostitution stings up and down Nebraska. That is a really nasty hood there and right up against the interstate to! The fact that there are so many pay day advance and pawn shops should be a real clue to the quality as well.

 
Comment by tampaesq
2007-09-14 10:48:58

My favorite story about Nebraska was the folks who bought in Seminole Hts. too close to Nebraska and had to chase hookers out of their driveways at night. Nothing like walking out to the end of the driveway to pick up the paper in the morning and getting a used condom stuck to your slipper. That area is a cesspool. Even the cute bungalows on the nice streets in Sem. Hts. were selling for less than $100K in 2002-03. Whoever paid $350K is a complete idiot.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-14 09:03:44

How can anything be called “Hillsborough” in F flat el lay?

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-14 07:33:05

Everything went downhill after I bought, so I got stuck,’ said Wojciechowski, of Chicago. ‘I’m not interested in taking a loss. The mortgage is killing me every month

Unlike this guy, - hey, Mr. Realtor - can you help me lose a boatload of money? I love taking losses. The bigger the better? NOT

You go to the housing casino. You lose. You pay. Just like a regular casino. Tough luck dude.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 07:37:08

‘People have bought the homes, spent several years fixing it up, financed, and now they’re in the situation where they have to sell it at almost full price.’”

Would someone please explain to me what “full price” is? That’s like saying your property will never go below “market value”. LMAO!

Comment by Blano
2007-09-14 07:40:07

“Full price” is the maximum amount a sucker can be made to pay while being told what a great deal it is.

 
Comment by oxide
2007-09-14 07:45:33

My vote: it means they cash-out HELOC’ed for the “full price” peak value and bought toys. Now the ARM is resetting, or the I/O time is up, they can’t afford the fully amort pay, but now they can’t drop the price at all because they would have to bring money to the table.

Boo-hoo.

 
Comment by SNJMark
2007-09-14 07:45:56

I think it means they can’t afford to do price reductions.

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-09-14 07:48:24

Palmetto,

I totally agree on this one, I see SO many people misusing those terms all the time, it’s maddening. If you sell a home on the open market (ie, not to a friend/family member) you BY DEFINITION has gotten the market price. It is impossible to sell something on the market at below market price, as then that would set the new market price for the item (well, ok, not impossible, but in theory, it should be, in practice, it holds true almost all the time).

Such total BS terms. Like when they put homes on “sale”… We all know you built this home for ~100-125/sq/ft and you want me to consider 300/sq/ft a SALE??

Comment by Devildog
2007-09-14 08:06:30

Track builders don’t spend $125/sqft building homes. There’s two likely possibilities to get costs that high though. Land prices are a likely issue; I know of Florida 80×120 lots that went for $750k (I know there’s more expensive ones out there, but these were really nothing special). Local impact fees and material prices pretty much doubled to bubble peak (while quality of said materials declined significantly).

But that said, in 2001 in Houston Lennar costs were about $42/sqft for materials and labor (so not counting land and personnel overhead). At that time lots were between $10-15k per, and as a rule of thumb you don’t spend more than 15% of total cost on the lot.

I know costs are a little higher for builders across the rest of the country, but $125/sqft should get you an OK custom home and $175/sqft should be a totally maxed out custom. People seem to have no concept of intrinsic value or what it really costs to build a house.

Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 12:14:11

That’s how I see it, too. There are plenty of areas where you can have a basic but well-constructed house built for $60/sf. And if you don’t mind being outside the city limits and on a septic tank instead of sewer, you can get a decent, dry acre of land for $10K.

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Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:17:43

Yeh I’d like to sell my 3 year old vehicle at full price too. Any takers?

 
 
Comment by Blano
2007-09-14 07:38:38

“The Naples area was still overpriced by 49.5 percent at $376,000, making it the 17th most overvalued market in the country. But that’s still a big improvement from a year earlier, when it was ranked eighth: overpriced by 65.5 percent at $393,600.”

“Charlotte County, in 54th place, was over by 32.6 percent with a median home price of $193,900, improved from 56 percent over at $212,400.”

“Southwest Florida’s numbers are cause for optimism, said Jamie Pirrello, president of Fort Myers-based Vision Homes USA. ‘I actually felt, ‘Wow, maybe we’re finally approaching close to bottom,’ he said. ‘Clearly the amount we’re overvalued has definitely decreased.’”

“Our prices don’t suck as bad as they did, that must mean it’s a great time to buy.” I don’t even know how to respond to such stupidity.

 
Comment by qt
2007-09-14 07:41:04

“Yun also predicts renters beginning to buy once they realize the cost of rent is just about as much as a monthly mortgage payment.”

When will that happen? I am thinking maybe in 10 or 15 years. Because house price is so sticky right now and sellers are still in denial.

Comment by Groverenter
2007-09-14 07:49:48

Home prices are sticky for now. We’re still at the top of the curve (SFlorida may be at top minus 20% in Sept -my gut feeling)
We’ve passed the clack-clack-clack and this is where you’re supposed to raise your arms and yell as the roller coaster takes you on a free fall.
Sorry neil but no popcorn on this ride.

Comment by Premature Curmudgeon
2007-09-14 09:53:08

I’m waiting for the vomit from people in the front cars to splat faces of those in the last few cars. That is when the reality of the housing market will hit home for most people.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2007-09-14 07:52:37

Banks aren’t going to let the FB’s get away with denial for the next 10-15 years.
Take the latest major wave of FB transactions — fall 2006 or so.
Add three years of I/O grace of the resets — 2009 or so.
Add one year for non-pay notices and such.
Account for an accelerating cycle as 2005 FB’s crash and burn.
We’ll see fire sales on the courthouse steps in 2009.

In earlier bubbles, people could still ride it out for 5-6 years, so it was sticky. This time, people HAVE to sell because of the resets. Banks are not going to play the sticky game.

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-09-14 07:52:37

Nahh, it’s almost impossible that the correction takes that long given the events that are playing out in the credit market. The loans that allowed people to get into homes at 10X income are gone. People are still going to move, and home builders are still going to build. Because there is no such thing as a “desperate buyer”, the effect will be at the margins…. Those who NEED to sell will set market price. Those that don’t will hold on, or walk away.

Once the money is shut down this whole thing, by equation, must start to fall apart (and it is).

I am thinking 2-3 years before we see a bottom. I don’t know if we will just move sideways from there, or continue to fall slightly; nor do I care. When my cost of ownership is equal my cost of rent, I will buy.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 07:57:59

“When my cost of ownership is equal my cost of rent, I will buy.”

Mike, I think it will be difficult to predict that, given the tax and insurance situation. I’m waiting to see how those issues will shake out. That’s why I prefer to pay cash for something small and modest, so I can at least contain the insurance costs by going without if I have to.

Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 12:21:28

Wonder if you can get a much better price on insurance if you carry a $10K deductible. Sort of catastrophic illness protection for your house.

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Comment by jetson_boy
2007-09-14 08:12:12

This is certainly not the case for me and my wife in CA. We rent a 4 bedroom house with a yard and garage for around $1,600 a month. The house ‘was’ valued at around 700k last year. We rent for approximately 35% of what it would cost to buy.

Prices in the East Bay here are pretty sticky too. The sales have declined to near nothing, but sellers are still clinging to their prices.There’s hardly a difference between what prices were going for last summer and this one. My particular neighborhood has a lot of older residents who I guess can afford to wait. But they won’t get their prices, so ultimately they will have to wake up to reality.

Comment by yogurt
2007-09-14 08:28:34

My particular neighborhood has a lot of older residents who I guess can afford to wait

Wait for what? I think once people find out the cavalry is not going to arrive, they’re going to start clearing out of Little Big Horn.

 
 
 
Comment by Groverenter
2007-09-14 07:42:48

“Many sellers in Old Seminole Heights have too much invested to concede prices,…… ‘People have bought the homes, spent several years fixing it up, financed, and now they’re in the situation where they have to sell it at almost full price.’”

Ok, please let us know what is “Full Price”?

Would it be:

1- Market Price
2- Purchase Price
3- #2 + repairs + mods
4- #3 + taxes + ins.
5- #5 + Heloc for New toys.

I love this one: ‘I’m not interested in taking a loss.

Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:24:09

I love this one: ‘I’m not interested in taking a loss.

Neither are the buyers.

 
 
Comment by mike
2007-09-14 07:44:53

I live in Sarasota Florida and not to be particularly snotty but why would ANYONE want to live in Tampa (Tampon) Florida?

Comment by Groverenter
2007-09-14 07:51:18

Jobs

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 08:05:00

Tampa is heaven compared to Miami or Orlando, IMHO. But that’s just me.

 
Comment by postman
2007-09-14 08:07:59

who wants to live in sarasota?

Comment by CH
2007-09-14 08:27:25

it’s a nice place to visit, but kind of boring to live there (i pseudo-lived there for a couple of years back in ‘03-05). most places roll up the sidewalk after 9 or 10 PM. lots of people with money (or at least the illusion thereof) down there if you’re into that.

 
 
Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 12:30:09

“I live in Sarasota Florida and not to be particularly snotty but why would ANYONE want to live in Tampa (Tampon) Florida?”

Mike — it is impossible for that not to sound snotty. If you truly didn’t want to sound snotty, you’d have omitted “I live in Sarasota Florida and not to be particularly snotty.”

 
 
Comment by MassBubbleGirl
2007-09-14 07:45:56

Oh my God, the curtain has been lifted…not that WE didn’t know what was going on but now MSM is catching on…
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=49750&cl=4087282&ch=61492&src=news

Check it out!

Comment by aNYCdj
2007-09-14 08:01:38

Well maybe the term Banker will mean a full time SALARIED person who works for a real bank.

It happens in any business.. commission only means a race to the bottom….and boy are we creating millions of commission only jobs in Amerikah!

Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:34:15

We are definitely creating more and more commission only jobs. Loan officers at banks are one of those commissioned jobs. Most banks do not have salaried loans officers now. That may change shortly.

 
 
Comment by phillygal
2007-09-14 08:07:16

“make the deal now, worry about the consequences later”

OK so this guy “repented” and is working for the Center for Responsible Lending. Did he donate any of the slimy loan commissions he earned to FBs currently in trouble?

Comment by spike66
2007-09-14 16:42:46

Hey, he “repented”. Good enough, right? You don’t think repentance actually involves making amends for the harm you’ve caused? That would be hard! That would cost money! But if he just says “I repent” he gets to feel good and it doesn’t cost him anything. See, this is how it works now.

 
 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-09-14 08:00:38

“Many sellers in Old Seminole Heights have too much invested to concede prices, says broker Mike Massimini. ‘People have bought the homes, spent several years fixing it up, financed, and now they’re in the situation where they have to sell it at almost full price.’”

Let them eat toast.

 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-14 08:05:25

How appropriate that Yun was interviewed on WINK TV!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-14 08:29:44

Yeah, and its sister station is WNOD.

 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2007-09-14 08:06:47

I’m personally glad to see the prices in FL fall dramatically, and none other than it will hopefully stem the flood of Floridians into my parent’s home state of TN. I’m sure NC is the same. With the lower prices, maybe they’ll stay put.

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-14 08:16:39

I can assure you that up here in the NC mountains we feel the same way. FLORIDIANS STAY HOME, WE DON’T WANT YOU! (Of course, I’m talking about Floridia transplants from up North, and not native Floridians.)

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 08:35:57

Don’t worry, I’m staying put for the time being.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 08:38:08

Kind of ironic, in a way. I’m renting, so I could walk away and move anywhere I want to, and yet I don’t mind waiting it out. And then there are Floridians who are desperate to move, but can’t because they own and aren’t willing to “take a loss”. Betcha they’d LOVE to trade places with me.

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Comment by KayLaw
2007-09-14 08:47:40

I’m a native but my b-i-l is from NJ. He has a waterfront McMansion down here, hates the neighborhood, the HOA, and his job, but already bought two cabins on 9 acres up your way. Some place I can’t remember near Blowing Rock.

He’s the one who insists his house doubled in price since the summer of 2003 and won’t go down - because Florida is different.

 
Comment by jonking
2007-09-14 09:08:01

Don’t worry. We have no interest in living in the NC mountains with close minded jerks like you. Enjoy the illusion of the NC mountains, the ultimate red state welfare region. If it wasn’t for the NE idiots like you would be speaking German right now.

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-14 09:16:14

If it wasn’ for us NC mountain boys, you would be showing your allegiance to the queen of England. I would suggest that you read up on the Revolutionary War, especially the Battle of King’s Mountain.

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Comment by Jill
2007-09-14 09:43:23

The turning point in the Revolutionary War was the Battle of Saratoga (that would be Saratoga, New York)

 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-14 10:07:29

“The turning point in the Revolutionary War was the Battle of Saratoga”

I beg to differ. At King’s mountain, in only one hour and five minutes, the American Whigs (Patriots, Rebels) totally decimated Ferguson’s American Tories (Loyalists, Royalists), with every last man of them either dead or taken prisoner, and the Colonel himself left dead on the battlefield—having signed his own death warrant less than a month earlier when he sent a message from his camp in Gilbert Town, Rutherford County (my home county), North Carolina, to the “officers on the Western waters” that if they did not “desist from their opposition to the British army, and take protection under his standard,” he would “March his army over the mountains, hang their leaders, and lay their country waste with fire and sword.” Of course, the “Over Mountain Men” (most being from either eastern Tennessee or western North Carolina) put a stop to that, marching from Elizabethan, TN to King’s Mountain to defeat Ferguson’s army.

 
Comment by Patriotic Bear
2007-09-14 12:34:31

Jill’s right. The battle of Saratoga resulted in the capture of approximately 6000 British troops and most importantly brought the French Empire into the war on our side. Two other facts….More French troops died at Yorktown (which concluded the war) then Americans. Second factoid is that while not the commander the American general most credited by hstorians for winning at Saratoga was non other then Benedict Arnold.

 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2007-09-14 10:29:59

“Don’t worry. We have no interest in living in the NC mountains with close minded jerks like you. Enjoy the illusion of the NC mountains, the ultimate red state welfare region. If it wasn’t for the NE idiots like you would be speaking German right now.”

You’re obviously unenlightened and ill-informed. The Blue Ridge Parkway, Asheville, Boone, and other regions in NC are highly cultured, artistic, and yes- extremely liberal. Don’t feed me that Red state crap. I grew up in TN and live in CA. I can’t say that living in a “blue” state has made my life any better. Probably worse in fact given that the cost of living here is astounding … probably because everyone that lives here thinks that all of us ” red state” heathens abound everywhere else.

Part of why the US housing bubble got as out of control- and particularly almost all of those picture-perfect Blue states, is from pure ignorance. Don’t perpetrate such nonsense please.

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Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:39:49

Last time I checked this was America and anyone could live anywhere they darn well please. This is starting to sound like the Soviet Union when you couldn’t come or go without permission. Today’s society is too transient to worry about who’s moving where.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-14 11:47:08

One thing that has transpired in my life, is a softening of regional accents…

When I was a kid, our next door neighbors had their relatives over from Tx once in awhile, and honestly, one could hardly understand them, until you got to know the dialect.

Everybody sounds similar today.

 
Comment by not a gator
2007-09-15 07:34:37

The middle class Massachusetts accent is almost gone, with the current generation.

The urban accent, which derived from a working class accent, is still around, and depending on how poor the town (*cough* Me’f'd *cough*) it may be stronger or weaker. It has some features shared with other northeastern urban accents in the younger generation, like elongated vowels.

However, in the burbs, only people over 40 pronounce half “haaff”. (Kerry has this accent, and was mocked for it.) This is an accent that dates back over 100 years. Instead, younger people talk more or less like people on NPR.

Children aquire accents from interaction with their classmates. With all the moving around going on, children from different backgrounds have been mixed into new pools, and new accent and changing accents are the result. I actually aquired the California accent from living there when I was three years old (a newer accent) and spent the next two decades trying to hide it and sound “neutral” in New England.

Of course, now I live in Florida and have gotten good enough at faking the local dialect that someone the other day guessed I was from Tennesee.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mike
2007-09-14 08:14:38

There’s the answer from Brad Monroe of Coldwell Banker: “They don’t want to lose their paper gains.” THAT is what’s holding this market up. Everyone who owned property during the last 6 years +, has watched their paper gains increase big time. It was like winning the lotto and few people win the lotto and they know it. Every month the paper value went up. In many places (especially big cities and on the coast) a property bought for $200,000 in 1999/2000, jumped to $400,000, $500,000 and in some case $600,000 +. It was winning the lotto time for hundreds of thousands of people who never in their life time could save $300,000 +. It was their future safety net. The gate to early retirement. The security of knowing they were safe in their old age from financial disaster. It was college fund money with a lot left over. It was travel to exotic places. Maybe a move to Hawaii. A new car every year…..and now it’s slipping away like dream dust.

On the other hand, the FB’s have no dreams left. Those who bought in the past 3 or 4 years are just hoping that they can return to square one. No loss - no gain. “I promise you Lord, I will never do this kind of thing again.”

However, it’s the pre-2003 owners who wake every day and see those future dreams fading. They are the ones holding on. At some point, as prices keep falling and those paper gains grow smaller, it could be a case of, “Okay, honey. We didn’t sell at the top and walk off with $300,000 but if we sell now we can still make $50,00 to $100,000.” That might be the catalyst which causes capitulation. There is a lot to be said for the “Theory of Herds” and we have to remember that the strongest moment indicating the end of the bust (what we have now) is capitulation. At this point, capitulation is not even in the picture.

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 08:45:26

“At this point, capitulation is not even in the picture.”

I agree, Mike. Just cruise craigslist real estate in any of the Florida regions and you can see that the river DeNial is running deep. I’m just curious as to how long people as a whole can hold on. Two, three years? More? Or less, if there’s an unusual event like a stock market crash or run on the banks.

Actually, I’d like to get a cheap house right now, because then at least I’d have a roof over my head and my money will have provided shelter, rather than seeing it go “poof” in a bank.

Comment by Mike
2007-09-14 09:56:15

Palmetto, capitulation is always the key. It’s when mass psychology kicks in. Schiller has described it quite well as, “turning on a dime,” and I think Didier Sornette also described it in similar fashion. In fact, UCLA’s Professor Didier Sornette’s earlier prognosis (complete with charts) concerning the property market bust in the USA and the UK appears to be dead on target but because of the irresponsibilty of the Fed (Greenspan in particular) and the lack of control by government, the outcome of Sornette’s prognosis seems to be happening now as opposed to 2004.

It’s also interesting to note how quickly the property market turned from boom to bust. The turn wasn’t, as most seem to think, in 2005. It was just a few weeks ago when CountryWide announced it wasn’t feeling too good. The property market began it’s decline in 2005 but the actual turning point was very recent. Now it needs a few nails in the coffin. A strong catalyst. Possibly a recession which I think has already started. A few hedge funds going under might do it. Some bank rescues such as we are seeing in the UK. You can guarantee The Financial Gangsters of Wall Street and their pals as the SEC and the Fed will come to the rescue. They always look after their own.

We might see a temporary bounce if Helicopter Ben drops the rate but it’s only temporary. Nothing more than a short squeeze.

It STILL comes down to one very simple thing. Affordability. This b.s about Freddie coming to rescue the hundreds of FB’s is exactly that. B.s. Also, the propaganda from politicians saying Freddie’s loan ceiling should be raised from it’s current $400,000 + to $600,000 is b.s. FB’s are going bankrupt because they couldn’t afford $250,000 homes so why should raising the amount they can borrow make any difference. Wage increases mean nothing. Any increases are soaked up by inflationary household expenses like food, energy and of course including health insurance.

Our lives are manipulated by political idiots and Wall Street con-men I’m afraid. Many of them regular guests on the CNBC Comedy Financial Show.

You will get your house. Just sit back, sip your coffee and watch the show. It’s free.

 
 
 
Comment by Bernadette
2007-09-14 08:22:10

http://www.ewm.com/trendx/

South Fl Home sales for August from EWM

 
Comment by Patricio
2007-09-14 08:32:47

“Lawrence Yun, the Senior Economist for the National Association of Realtors…says real estate agents, as well as the public should not be disturbed by the lack of sales in Collier County. He believes things will pick up in the next year, and even more in the distant future.”

Another FunYun! Yes it will all get better, remember the power of 3 with the NAR, take what ever they say and times it by three. Next year would be, 2010-11 for the market to get back to…ok. However, if people think we are going to get back to 100% gains in short periods of time….forget about it those days are GONE…just like equity in that house.

Comment by Claudia
2007-09-14 09:15:49

Notice he said “distant future” — not anytime soon. Distant future could be 5 years from now or even 20 years from now.

What he said is actually pretty funny.

 
 
Comment by edward
2007-09-14 08:38:55

Here’s a darker story related to the bubble.

SW Fla. realty mogul mysteriously disappears.

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070914/NEWS01/309140002/1075

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-14 08:51:42

Ah, yes, the empty kayak drifting offshore. Think he staged his own disappearance?

Comment by edward
2007-09-14 09:00:41

Either that, or he honked off the wrong “investor”. He did disappear in Jersey. There ever been any reports of mob ties to the housing bubble?

From the story

He called D’Alessandro “just an extremely first-class person, and a great businessman on top of that. I don’t know many other human beings as good as him; that’s just my personal opinion. He was a great person to work for.”

Both face lawsuits brought by former customers of the real estate agency who bought investment houses that were to be built by First Home Builders.

The houses were to have tenants already in place to defray the investors’ mortgages, but prices for real estate have fallen sharply in the past year and rental rates have gone down as well.

Many of the investors are unwilling or unable to actually buy the houses and some are alleging that they were misled by the real estate company, the builder and various lenders. Cabrera and D’Alessandro both deny any wrongdoing.

Comment by Jill
2007-09-14 09:39:17

Didn’t Carmella Soprano’s spec house disintegrate in the rain?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-09-14 08:56:38

Anyone else think this could be a staged disappearance?

I hope he’s ok in any event.

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2007-09-14 11:57:38

Realtor jokes will be the new Lawyer jokes :

What do you call one realtor lost at sea?

A good start!

 
 
Comment by OK_Land_lord
2007-09-14 08:59:17

Just saw Hanovin or Havo-somthing home builders giving 25% discounts for “3 DAYS” only. This was on Fox New - they must be paying for comercial time during the news cast. The girl acted like she was trying to play devils advocate, however he last words were “If you are waiting to buy a home due to the down turn, don’t wait too long because we won’t be in a down turn for long”. Yea thats why they are trying to “Unload” these properties.

I’ll wait and wait and wait and watch the carnage. HAHAHAHHHAHAHHA. Survival of the fitest!!!

Comment by snake charmer
2007-09-14 09:21:48

The funniest thing about the Hovnanian discounting event is the quote from one of the company’s vice-presidents, who stated that prices this weekend will involve “no further negotiating” and contracts must be signed by 9 p.m. Sunday.

Gee, put a gun to buyers’ heads. What a great idea! If anyone is making ultimatums it should be someone considering buying one of these commoditized pieces of junk.

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-09-14 10:05:02

Hey, when GM does it, I always make sure to run down to the dealer on Saturday morning and buy as many cars as I can, because I know it’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

 
 
Comment by michael
2007-09-14 09:24:52

three days only…BWAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!

Comment by rex
2007-09-14 11:02:00

yep..prices will go up 20% afterwards.

 
 
Comment by homelessbubbleboy
2007-09-14 13:33:44

The issue here is many will see the ad as - prices will be this LOW for just 3 days and after that they will go LOWER!

Not that I am complaining ;)

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-09-14 09:05:02

“The builder is advertising a national ‘Deal of the Century’ sales event….”

If it were really the deal of the century, why would the builder have to promote it so heavily? We would all know about it. Expect more deals of the century. This is the beginning of the price war. Competitors will respond with their deals of the century driving prices below the current deal of the century offer.

~ Buy now or pay less later!

Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 13:03:00

It’s the “first” deal-of-the-century. At least they’re taking seriously the adage, “Be the first to panic.”

Whoooosh…. “Omigosh, Herbert, what was that???” “It was our comps, honey.”

 
 
Comment by ET-chicago
2007-09-14 09:15:31

Expect more deals of the century. This is the beginning of the price war.

Yeah, it should be quite entertaining: the Developer’s Race To The Bottom.

If I was more of a popcorn eater I’d start heating up the oil …

 
Comment by Tom
2007-09-14 09:16:33

Vinod Kholsa on CNBC said he is breaking ground on Cellulosic Ethanol plants and that it will be a cheaper viable alternative to Oil by 2009. To combat Coal, he is brekaing ground on some solar plants that turn water into steam to turn turbines. Not sure of the viability but he sounds very confident.

Personally, I hope this technology is a breakthrough and will break the grip of our countries dependancy on oil from Russia and the Middle East.

Ok Vladimir Putin, you can have the Arctic since we can create energy cheaper than you can drill it for.

Comment by OK_Land_lord
2007-09-14 09:42:13

I have some shares of SunOPTA - they have the enzyme technology that is and will be utilized in alot of the cellulose based ethanol plants. It’s down a small amount when I bought about 4 months ago.

I am speculating that it could be a great breakthrough. I would (wood) much rather see us using ethanol vs. petrolium product too, not necesarlily for the carbon issue, but mostly so we don’t have to hear anything for the oil producing nations. The president has mentioned this technologies a few times. Mayby it is time to buy some more stock based on this market?

Comment by Tom
2007-09-14 09:58:45

I would also like to see us not using food products to make ethanol. Also cellulosic is less pollutive than corn-based ethanol.

 
 
Comment by spike66
2007-09-14 12:58:09

No Putin cannot have the Arctic…the contempt Russians have for the environment is beyond description, or rather it’s not, it’s like the Chinese. Canada and the US both geographically have fair claim there too, and this is no time to act like a wanker.
Let the Canadians have at it…they wisely stayed out of Iraq, they’re right there, and we’re almost friends with them.

Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 13:04:47

“…we’re almost friends with them.”

Guess we’ll have to be, once their currency is worth more than ours.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2007-09-14 13:43:53

There is no oil up there.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-14 09:24:14

Residents of the City of Angles…

Remember Crazy Eddie’s (r.i.p.) Zachary All tv commercials?

“Beginning in the early 1960s, Nalbandian became something of a Southern California celebrity for commercials in which he famously emphasized that clothes at his store came in sizes “Cadet, Extra Short, Regular, Long, Extra Long and Portlies.”

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m5072/is_n19_v16/ai_15500917

Instead of selling suits, imagine him selling houses on tv?

 
Comment by Ernest
2007-09-14 10:18:19

“Southwest Florida’s homes are still overpriced — but they’re a far better buy than they were a year ago, according to a national survey released this week.”

So just what does “overpriced” mean?

 
Comment by tampaesq
2007-09-14 10:51:25

Wow, Seminole Heights really HAS increased in “value”!
I like the $102,516.91/mo. payment.

http://www.smithandassociates.com/property/property.asp?PRM_MLSNumber=T2267658&PRM_MlsName=midFLregional

Comment by Chip
2007-09-14 13:08:14

LOL. What kind of agent would post something like that and not check it immediately for accuracy. That’s pretty shameful. For that matter, the software ought to have a filter that flags “impossible” values and kicks them back for edit or confirmation.

 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-14 11:56:04

Thanks guys. From the teta to the condom on the bottom of the slipper, this blog has been absolutely hilarious today. It keeps us all laughing in the middle of this huge mess.

 
Comment by julia
2007-09-14 12:14:33

“Gee, put a gun to buyers’ heads. What a great idea! If anyone is making ultimatums it should be someone considering buying one of these commoditized pieces of junk.”

snake charmer, I’m with ET_Chicago. Once you offer discounts like this, there’s no way to get rid of them. See GM and Ford? once they tried to get out of deep discounted they sells vanished. Even getting out of fleet sales wasn’t possible for GM.

 
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