The Decline Is Accelerating In California
The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “Bay Area home sales in August plunged to their lowest level since 1992, amid a credit crunch that is quashing home shoppers’ ability to buy. In some outlying and entry-level markets, in particular, home prices are also taking a hit as foreclosures surge higher.”
“‘Devastated is a strong word, but when you have 29 homes for sale in a three-block area, that’s a lot of homes,’ said Jay Bedsworth, a Sotheby’s real estate agent who has listed several homes in Brentwood, including two ’short sales.’ ‘The farther out from San Francisco you get, the worse it is.’”
“For the last year, Andy Wajdak has been trying to sell a four-bedroom home in Santa Rosa that has been in his family for about four decades. The Fresno window blind manufacturer said he has chopped the price twice by $20,000 each time, but still has no takers. Since the family owns the property outright, there is no immediate pressure to sell. But Wajdak worries the market may deteriorate further.”
“‘At some point we might decide to just dump it - lower the price to where it’s the lowest in the area,’ he said. ‘But I’m not sure we’re quite willing to do that yet.’”
The Press Democrat. “Home values are continuing to fall in Sonoma County, according to a report issued Thursday. Home sales tumbled 24.8 percent in August, compared with a year ago. The price for a typical Sonoma County home dropped to $505,000 in August, down from $550,000 a year ago, an 8.2 percent decline. The figure includes new and resale houses and condominiums.”
“Increasingly stringent loan qualifications are taking out even more buyers as lenders tighten the money supply with mortgage defaults soaring.”
“‘That worsened it. The first-time home buyers went away. So the affordability is just not here any longer,’ said Alice Curtis, Creative Property Services manager in Santa Rosa.”
The Mercury News. “In many of Santa Clara County’s more affordable neighborhoods, home values fell compared to last summer. Deepak Satya, a renter in Cupertino who plans to buy a house there relatively soon, said he has noticed some reduction of list prices recently in that city among homes priced in the $1 million range.”
“He said he and his wife will wait until at least late October to make an offer, because they expect little competition from other buyers at that time of year.”
“‘Right now, what’s happening is those ‘too many offers’ situations are gone,’ said Satya. ASatya moved to Cupertino about three years ago for the school district. ‘Since the day I moved into Cupertino I’ve wanted to buy a house, but the prices keep going up and up and up. There’s no logic to it.’”
“The fastest-moving part of the county’s market is comprised of Palo Alto, Mountain View and Los Altos, where it would take about 56 days to sell out the houses for sale, based on the recent pace of sales. The news is worse for sellers in east, central and south San Jose, where it would take 760 days to exhaust the supply.”
“It’s likely that September and October data will show a more pronounced slowdown in sales. Mortgage brokers reported that some clients who were in the middle of purchases had their loans suddenly yanked away by lenders who had killed certain loan programs.”
“The result? Only 713 new sales were initiated in August, said broker Richard Calhoun, who crunches local MLS data daily. That’s fewer initiated sales than in any August in at least nine years (when his data set begins).”
The Sacramento Bee. “It’s come to this: For roughly every two homes sold in August in the capital region, one house went into foreclosure, according to the newest sales statistics released Thursday.”
“Clearly, such numbers are fuel for still more for-sale signs — now at a record 16,262 in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties — and further declines in sales prices. The number of sales, meanwhile, fell to a 12-year August low in Sacramento County and an 11-year low in Placer County.”
“DataQuick had other encouraging news Thursday for buyers in the region: median sales prices in Sacramento and Placer counties are nearly 20 percent off their 2005 highs.”
“None of the numbers, however, deterred Kelly Lawson from buying. He closed escrow last month on a 1950s three-bedroom, one-bath house in North Highlands.”
“Lawson is an example of conventional real estate wisdom that buyers who intend to stay in their homes can ride out the current slump and see gains in the future. Asked how long he intends to stay in his house, Lawson answered, ‘Till I die. After this move, I am not moving again.’”
The Signal. “Homes in Santa Clarita go fast. But on Sunday, six homes will sell in a matter of minutes, as Kennedy Wilson Auction Group is planning to auction six homes at Deer Creek at Placerita Canyon Estates in Newhall.”
“President Rhett Winchell said…he was unsure about the level of competition now with the current housing market. The minimum bid for each of the six houses is $595,000. Winchell said the auction offers up to 40 percent off of the asking price of each house.”
“Winchell said buyers are able to bid on multiple properties during the auction. ‘If they don’t get their first choice, they can move down the line and try the next property,’ he said.”
The Malibu Times. “Notwithstanding current market ‘corrections’ following the recent real estate credit meltdown, there will always be a buying audience for the tony higher-end properties of Malibu.”
“This is why Todd Wohl, VP of Premiere Estates Auction Company feels absolutely confident that he will sell an (appraised) $12.9 million, Ocean View Drive Malibu home with sweeping views of the coastline in what some say is an unusual approach to exclusive property sales; a live auction.”
“‘There is a growing inventory of available properties from $4 million up in Malibu,’ Wohl said. ‘We’re seeing the same in Huntington Beach and Newport. The psychology of the marketplace might have changed in recent months, but there is still tons of credit available for these kinds of properties, if you can qualify.’”
“Rick Wallace, a local broker, said he has doubts that auctions are the best way to sell properties. ‘This is quite unusual and will probably not become a trend,’ he said. ‘I can think of only a few property auctions that have happened in Malibu.’”
“Whereas Wallace agrees that sellers can be pretty much assured that their property will ultimately sell at auction, ‘it might not sell at the best price the market can bear,’ he said.”
The LA Times. “Home prices fell in most Southern California neighborhoods and the number of sales tumbled to a 15-year low for August.”
“Sales for the month plunged 36% from a year earlier. What’s more, 71% of the Southland’s ZIP Codes showed price declines, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The survey excluded areas with 14 or fewer sales.”
“Nearly 9% of the homes sold last month were foreclosure properties, DataQuick reported, up from 2.2% a year earlier.”
“‘People just don’t have the income to support these prices except with crazy mortgages — and now the mortgage money is going away, and people are walking away from their homes,’ said economist Christopher Thornberg.”
“‘Virtually every community in Riverside County has massive inventory levels, which almost certainly will require price corrections in order to be absorbed,’ Riverside County-based appraiser Michael Mathis said.”
“Dennis Hsii is counting on builder desperation to help him buy his first home. This weekend, the Los Angeles technology consultant hopes to renegotiate his contract to buy a $700,000 town home in Playa Vista that has been under construction for the last year.”
“That’s because the town home’s builder, Irvine-based Standard Pacific Corp., is hosting the equivalent of a car dealership ‘blowout’ sale at Hsii’s community and 48 others starting Friday.”
“On Wednesday, the company sent Hsii an e-mail promising a refrigerator, a washer and dryer, window blinds and a 42-inch flat-screen TV ‘at no additional cost’ if he went ahead with his purchase. Hsii is looking for a cash discount instead.”
“‘My goal,’ Hsii said, ‘is to get the lowest price possible.’”
“‘Buyers are hearing more and more about foreclosures and declining values, and frankly they are terrified even with these ‘great values’ being offered and are afraid to be purchasing when prices may still go down,’ said Steve Johnson, regional analyst for MetroStudy.”
“Appraiser Mathis said that in parts of the Inland Empire it could take as long as three years to sell off all the homes currently on the market, a glut that is likely to further erode prices.”
“‘Outlying markets have been showing significant weakness for over one year now, and this direction is now clearly being followed by the remaining Inland Empire markets,’ he said. ‘Equally ominous is the fact that most recent analysis suggests that the decline is accelerating.’”
The Voice of San Diego. “Fewer homes sold last month in San Diego County than in any August in 15 years, DataQuick reported. The 3,104 homes sold marked a 19.4 percent drop in sales volume from August 2006, and a 48 percent drop from the nearly 6,000 homes sold in August 2005.”
“Many of the deals that closed in August, and that show up in data now, began in July or early August, before the drastic tightening in the mortgage market.”
“RealtyTrac reported 2,699 new foreclosure filings in July, a 139 percent increase over July 2006 and a 907 percent increase over July 2005.”
“‘It’s like somebody turned off the spigot all of a sudden,’ said mortgage broker Mark Goldman. I get two to three calls a week from people who are upside-down in their houses, getting behind in their payments.’”
“‘There’s no places for them to go for a loan; they don’t have equity,’ he said. ‘There’s a world of hurt out there for these people.’”
“Sharyn Crown, a Coronado-based real estate broker, said her 30 years in the real estate business have taken her through several downturns and booms, but there’s something different about this one.”
“‘The market is just different because people are so nervous,’ she said. ‘The lenders are running scared and the buyers are running scared. When you have a company like Countrywide (Financial Corp., a mortgage lender) laying off thousands of people, people get nervous.’”
“‘The South Bay is really suffering — it’s terrible,’ she said. ‘And in the East County, sometimes a price reduction doesn’t even get the house sold. It’s hard for a lot of people to get realistic when things happen like this.’”
“‘Yeah, a lot of people have been squeezed out with requirements for higher credit, full documentation (of income), reserves — the stuff people should have always had,’ Goldman said. ‘The dumb money has left the market.’”
Thanks for all your hard work
“‘That worsened it. The first-time home buyers went away. So the affordability is just not here any longer,’ said Alice Curtis, Creative Property Services manager in Santa Rosa.”
*******
Sorry Alice, for to be accurate, you’d have to say the “affordability” has not been present for a half decade or so.
Yeah, Alice looks pretty stupid after that one. But you know, most so called professionals still have no idea of the dynamics that drove this market for the last 6 years.
But they are learning. And they will soon learn what it all means….Lower prices and slower sales.
I think you are mistaken, not only professionals but even first graders knew “the dynamics that drove this market” but everybody was playing “professional” like Mr. Greenspiiiiin in order to fool FB’s in order to make money …
“For the last year, Andy Wajdak has been trying to sell a four-bedroom home in Santa Rosa that has been in his family for about four decades. The Fresno window blind manufacturer said he has chopped the price twice by $20,000 each time, but still has no takers. Since the family owns the property outright, there is no immediate pressure to sell. But Wajdak worries the market may deteriorate further…’At some point we might decide to just dump it - lower the price to where it’s the lowest in the area,’ he said. ‘But I’m not sure we’re quite willing to do that yet.’”
Mmmm, I love it when these greedheads ride the market down. Keep up the chintzy price cuts, and keep bleeding that equity dry birdbrain!
So don’t sell Andy. Just remember this. The “Lowest price in the area” Today is “Highest price in the area” tomorrow.
if you didn’t sell already, unless you take a massive amount off comps, you are a dead duck.
Real estate never totally stops. So if he’s willing to be the best deal in the area. He will sell. Since its owned outright, that shouldn’t be to tough for this property.
The only question is how long do they chase the market down before being the new low comp? Bwaaa haaa ha! For it sounds like that is what this house is destined to become. Tomorrow? Two years? It certainly sounds like an alligator not being lived in. (Inheritance?)
Got popcorn?
Neil
I dunno. Real estate pretty much went into reverse in the depression.
Localized area’s have been abbandoned before… IE & Riverside… Florida … Arkansas
That is a really bad comparison, and also not really true. Housing made a huge dive prior to the depression because of many factors including the fallout from the Great War and the implosion of the Florida bubble. Real estate prices actually grew during the depression, but they were so low hardly anyone noticed. Of course at that time a home was typically something with less than a thousand square feet and no plumbing inside.
You know, the media is still way lame-ass about reporting this thing (although the RE bulls will say the media’s reporting is killing the market) If MSM wants to be helpful, then try interviewing someone that has actually sold their home over the recent months. Someone who’ll be quoted as saying that he had to undercut the market by 10% to move his property. Instead, we get these folks with over-priced properties languishing unsold who have nothing for us but a bunch of bitching and moaning.
Waving hand in air~I volunteer.
Leigh
Been in his family for four decades… probably got paid off ten years ago…. probably bought for less than $20K…. pure greed is driving this one.
“Lawson is an example of conventional real estate wisdom that buyers who intend to stay in their homes can ride out the current slump and see gains in the future. Asked how long he intends to stay in his house, Lawson answered, ‘Till I die. After this move, I am not moving again.’”
Sounds more like the words of a conventional idiot: “I’ll pay more now for the house because I can get a mortgage.”
Buy high and hold - Funny I’ve never heard those words in any finance or investment manual.
Repeat after me (and most everybody else on this blog):
A house you are living in is NOT an investment. It is a consumable good, and if you are approaching it as such, i.e. you must pay to live somewhere, you will most likely be fine over the long term.
Buy high and hold - Funny I’ve never heard those words in any finance or investment manual.
That’s because housing isn’t an investment, period. As I’ve said here recently, I’m a huge housing contrarian, but the wife and I closed on a home a few months ago in a neighborhood that has 30-40% to shed still. We paid cash. Why? Because we know it isn’t an investment, but the time we’ll save with a MUCH shorter commute, for the exact house we wanted (and researched for 10+ years while we waited for it to sell), and the overall reduced stress having a good home versus a bad one (previous one) made it worth it. I could have waited and saved maybe $60k, but I figure I’ll more than make that up in a year or two of what I save, which isn’t just financial.
Most people are idiots for buying now, but there are some of us who made the decision for a reason. I’d never look at my home as an investment — I know what it cost me, and I also know what buying now will save me in the long run.
Daba-doo, why not just rent a house in the same area? are there no decent homes to rent there? Just trying to understand the logic….
I think he explained his reasoning pretty well - did you read his post?
yes, I read it. i could buy the argument if there were no decent houses in the area to rent, ie you can live in a better place. but if you expect 30-40% decline it seems like throwing away money… to me, anyway.
RIntoul, we read the post. LOL It is cheaper to rent than buy almost everywhere in the continental U.S. and withprices dropping and a major recession looming, buying right now is silly. But to each his own.
In some areas, it is very difficult to find any long-term rentals at all. Investor-owned properties are furnished and are available as vacation rentals, but the owners come sometimes and will not rent out for a year. I suppose I should try offering to pay X for a year’s lease on something that has been listed for sale for a while. Just now I’m thinking of the Outer Banks of NC.
We sold and bought in 2005–moved from SF Bay Area to Juneau, AK. We thought about renting here, but are very happy with our purchase, mostly because we got the neighborhood and schools we wanted. There are few decent long-term rentals in this town, and none in the neighborhood we settled in. Based on what I can glean of local sales data, our house has probably held its value or appreciated a little bit.
We also paid cash, so declining values would be a bummer if we sold (no short-term plans to do so), but not fatal.
…but there is still tons of credit available for these kinds of properties, if you can qualify.’”
Isn’t that like saying you can purchase a lot of things, if only you have the money?
I always enjoy the comment about the easiest way to make $1M … Take $10M and invest it at 10% interest (provided you are not buying CDOs).
or the old Steve Martin bit from SNL.
How to make a million dollars?
First, get a million dollars.
Even if 10% were easy to find, Uncle Sam and your state of residence would take away much of the million you just made. All part of Stucco’s “War on Savers” (so much more effective than the war in Iraq).
If only I had some peanut butter, I’d have a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, if only I had some jelly.
License plate framed chariots bearing the words “Malibu A Way Of Life” driving along PCH may or may not mean the inhabitant lives there, but who’s to know any better?
If you don’t have it, Flaunt it…
“Notwithstanding current market ‘corrections’ following the recent real estate credit meltdown, there will always be a buying audience for the tony higher-end properties of Malibu.”
I used to love driving my ‘77 volvo wagon around Yorba Linda with my “Land of Gracious Living” license frame. The neighbor would request that I park it in the garage when she had families/friends come over. HA!
I always wanted to have a biker bar near county line called:
The Maliboozer
Who are these idiots the paper finds to say that they are currently contemplating buying because of some “blowout” sales by builders?? A blowout sale is 50% off IMO. Minimum! A TV or $10K off of a $700K box is not a blow out! Jesus, I am getting so sick of the b.s. and idiocy rampant in housing! And now I just read that the House of Representatives is going to soon vote on upping the purchase limits for the GSEs. Why do they want to artificially try to prop up already overpriced homes? I know why: because all the congresspeople and their pig men banker contributors idea of a wet dream is having Joe Six Pack strapped financially every month! People need to wake up and realize that they are just buying into a myth and are instead making money for the pig men. I’m seriously wanting to leave the USA, especially if those retards in D.C. throw billions after an unjust cause. As if the Iraq clusterfu*k wasn’t enough for them.
Actually, real blowout are seriously occurring as we speak. Check out Hovnanian’s website. Between $100K to $250K off homes this weekend in the central valley and Sacramento. Love what this will do for comps….
Indeed. For Sac and the rest of the valley, that is still overpriced. Pulte has something up their sleeve as well. Heard it on the radio the other night while listening to a baseball game. They called it their “Zero” offer or something like that. No details though. I guess they’re following the marketing playbook of trying to create excitement or a buzz. God I hate corporate marketing. They did mention something about accepting purchases with contingencies. I guess that means they are really desperate to book any kind of sale, even though it is likely to fall through? Anyone else hear of this event? Personally, I hope all the merchant builders go teets up.
“Zero offer”
Buy a new home today and get 0% appreciation for 10 years!!
correction - 0% appreciation afer a massive depreciation.
1998: 250,000
2005: 750,000
2006: 800,000
2008: 600,000 recession
2009: 400,000
2010: 200,000 (possible depression)
2015: 220,000
2020: 300,000
harsh? not really…more like realistic!
I noticed that the Pulte page has the motto ‘Pulte homeowner for life’. That may be commentary on how long these people will be underwater.
We bought a Pulte back in the late ’70’s - what a craphole. Carpet had a seam - I think they had laid the nap in the opposite direction. When we did the walk through on completion the salesman kept saying it would vacuum out (being dumb and only 23 I believed him.) One vertical molding was a full bubble off. They never stained some woodwork. Took numerous calls to get them to take down the subdivision sales sign from our property. We hated being out in the boonies and 3 months after being in there put it up for sale. We managed to sell it FSBO, without sod and cement work (moved in too late in the season so driveway and walk could not be put in until spring). We were so lucky - the guy that bought it owned a sprinkler company and was glad it hadn’t been sodded (can’t remember if Pulte ever came back and put in the cement work for the guy). But due to the rising interest rates we had sold it on land contract (our rate was low so we could offer a decent interest rate) and nervously waited for his check each month (so we could make the mortgage payment). Looking back I guess we were unintentionally flippers back then - because we sold about 27% higher than we paid for it. But we really didn’t make anything on it because inflation was crazy then and what we bought back in GP (smaller and priced slightly less) was also inflated. But now almost 30 years later the house we bought in Grosse Pointe (long sold) would be worth almost 2x what that crappy Pulte house would sell for. We dodged a bullet young and learned our lesson.
Googled “pulte zero” and got this. Hmm, 14 months or so of “free” payments on a 30 year loan = 3.9% price cuts. Pick me up off the floor! Hurry, only two days to buy (they’re running out of land in Manteca and in Stockton!!!!!!!!):
Pulte Homes will pay the
mortgage payments on your new Pulte home until 2009*!
Hurry in to see the limited number of Pulte homes remaining throughout our
Bay Area and Stockton communities as well as
Del Webb in Manteca!
Just click on the map to the right to find the community that’s perfect for your family.
http://www.pulteplus.com/
You know, if your just going to default then you have 1.5 yrs of free living.
Thats a pretty good perk for an illegal alien.
Wow, its almost two years before back to Mexico!
Hopefully, they don’t default before you do.
I’m right there with you. New Zealand after I withhold my taxes for 4-5 years and invest it in Euros. America is a great place but……Governments that falsely go to war and artificially prop up home prices to fatten thier wallets lead me to believe that it’s time to leave..
All these whiners or borrowers who are seeking help were never going to share their profits. Greed is good-especially for people who gambled and get bailed out…..
I don’t get this endless fascination with the Euro. The USD is a POS for sure, and it does deserve to get hammered (for diversification reasons, if nothing else). But, come on, does anyone actually read nhz’s posts? Europe has gigantic institutionalized housing bubbles. Spain, Ireland, Holland, UK ..etc. I don’t believe for one second that they’re going to come out of this mess any better off than the U.S. This is going to be a global fiasco.
Change paper money in real gold now buy a home with a handful gold in few years !
I’m out of town for the next week, but I heard about the “blowout” Hovanian house sale on CNBC. Maybe someone from California can report some specifics. I would be shocked if they knocked 30-50% off houses - so far the cuts have been very small for new houses. Probably the $250K cuts are on million dollar prices.
No, this is the real “blowout” in Playa Vista:
Steve Soborof, president of Playa Vista, a massive real estate development built on flammable gas deposits near Marina del Rey. His company, by its own account, has spent over $600,000 in the past three years on lobbying efforts to persuade the City Council and other city agencies that the site can be made safe.
I am a registered geologist who worked on projects like this for years. The site is and can be made safe. It is environmental activists and others who are worried about the traffic on Lincoln Blvd. that are using any means necessary to stop the project.
I agree…the biggest blowout at Playa Vista is happening right now…all those 800K 2-bedroom condos with $695 in monthly HOAs plus mello roos…ka-boom!!
I’m thinking of withholding all my taxes and heading to Costa Rica or New Zealand. If they propose bailout or artificially hold up prices consider it done. Why are we letting these idiots ruin are country? I believe we should all march on Washington. Better yet Boston Tea Party kind of action. Everyone withhold thier taxes in protest of government meddling with market dynamics. This scam is insane. My daughter will not be paying for joe the gardeners house. Because he cant and should have never been able to get it anyways. No Way. No Bailout….
That’s “Jose” the gardener.
“‘Buyers are hearing more and more about foreclosures and declining values, and frankly they are terrified even with these ‘great values’ being offered and are afraid to be purchasing when prices may still go down,’
“great values” yea, right these guys are killing me…
“Great values” ..my buttocks. I’ve got 7 homes for sale on my street alone. 4 of them for over a year. What do some of these geniuses do?. They lower the price around $5K every month or so.
Considering their homes are overpriced by about 150%, I think only a painful foreclosure will put ‘em out of their misery.
To be fair, ‘great values’ is in quotes. Maybe he did the little finger quote thing in the air when he said it.
Riiiiggghhhhtttt… Did I mention I was a broker, I mention that because I have some land in NY that I think would would be an excellent fit for your portfolio, it’s what I would call lakeside has a bridge and everything…
“In many of Santa Clara County’s more affordable neighborhoods, home values fell compared to last summer. Deepak Satya, a renter in Cupertino who plans to buy a house there relatively soon, said he has noticed some reduction of list prices recently in that city among homes priced in the $1 million range.”
$1mil is affordable? What do these people do, crap gold bullion?
If $1 million is affordable, stay the heck out of California, everyone!
I live in Cupertino and live in a $1.5 million 1,600 old box with 12 windows and a few doors. It does not make any sense.
I am a minority living in Cupertino (white). When I move from Cupertino I will be the last of the Americans to leave, I guess it is my job to carry out the flag.
The reason Cupertino is expensive it the schools. The schools are populated with 50% Chinese and 50% Indian (from India). They work and study 10X more than Americans. My kid is taking Algebra in the 6th grade which is the low end for her age. The accelerated 6th grade math is a more advanced Algebra that college kids sometimes take.
Schools in Cupertino and foreign buyers are what keeps the price high.
What is funny is the kids get force fed into all that and do OK in school. However, all the education studdies over the past 50 years note that the effect is stressful and fleeting.
The kids soon forget when they are out of the enviroment and into the real world.
I was worried about this with my kid and my wife (teacher) made me read all the articles on superbabies so that I’d just let it go.
If those people don’t have the income to keep the prices up; then prices will collapse. Simple as that. Economics is simple and non-discriminatory that way.
Guess what, those “Chinese” and “Indians” are just as “American” as the many closet bigots who inherited their citizenship…just a comment, you can decide in your own mind who you are.
Aw, fer cryin’ out loud. Enuf with the nanny state politically correct police stuff.
Yes, that’s true, tbgpalisades.
I think the problem comes in when we import “temporary” citizens here on H1-B visas and the like. Why should they commit to us when we don’t commit to them? It just causes conflict.
Many are, many are not. How would you suggest that those bigots “earn” their citizenship?
Generalizations are generally too general.
“the many closet bigots who inherited their citizenship”
I’m an American and I find that sentence completely offensive.
Surprise, surprise, this is a country, not an economic platform for opportunists. And yes, we make a distinction between citizens and foreign nationals here on temporary work visas…
so shove it.
That’s what I hoped too; my naturalization is coming up in a few weeks BTW.
Still, with what I’ve seen lately, including the very reason for this blog’s existence, I think “economic platform for opportunists” describes the current condition of the US pretty well.
In that environment, if H-1Bs et al are really economic opportunists, they’re only hopping on to the mainstream bandwagon. Can you really blame them? They couldn’t even vote…
Do they teach other subjects too, or have they been completely overtaken by the false notion that math is the only important thing to know?
As an Asian-American, let me let you in on a dirtly little secret: minorities hate when most of the white folks leave a community. Seriously, I would never want to live in an area dominated by a particular ethnicity. Diversity is not something to be sacrificed to the altar of “Tolerance.”
“As an Asian-American, let me let you in on a dirtly little secret: minorities hate when most of the white folks leave a community.”
Why?
My wife (Chinese immigrant, H1b, then green card, now US citizen, is she American?) has the same attitude. Basically, if she wanted to live purely among Chinese people, she would have stayed in China. She has not completely renounced Chinese ways: we go to Ranch 99, and our child is learning Chinese. But she definitely appreciates and enjoys the freedoms and benefits of the US. One of which is diversity and the melting pot.
Second that. Certain cities here in SoCal (Hacienda Heights, Monterey Park, et al) have become so dominated by one Asian group or another that in most cases they don’t even bother putting up English versions of their store names. My wife (Mexican) who fancies Chinese pastries once had to go from one store to the next trying to figure out which one was a bakery.
I think that’s the beef many of us native Americans have with recent immigration patterns. Once, new arrivals made an effort to learn English and American customs. Now, they self-segregate, decline English usage, and effectivley create little Balkans in what used to be America. And that’s Arabs in Detroit, Cubans in Florida, Mexicans in SoCal etc.
The old integration studies came up with a tipping figure of around 8% before whites became uncomfortable and started to move out of the neighborhood. And that was among Americans.
I’m not tired of Asians and Indians working hard and starting businesses, creating wealth, being self-reliant ….. I’m tired of middle class Americans with a growing entitlement mentality inculcating their kids with the same box-of-stupid mindset. As far as I’m concerned, *they* are the ones who can shove-off to Shanghai or New Delhi. Good riddance — I’d trade these douchebags for a hard-working Asian or Indian family *any* day.
“American” is a mindset, not a nationality, really.
Those hardworking, wealth-creating, business-starting immigrants are Americans for sure. Even if they don’t have the title yet.
My sister mentioned the other day that another mother on her street thanks her for letting her daughter play with the neighbor’s son. The neighbor is originally from Columbia, and it makes my sister mad to think of what she’s endured in the past to make her so grateful that my sister “allows” her child to play with another bright and well-behaved child. In fact, it makes me do a slow burn too.
The entitlement mentality you speak of is not unique to middle class Americans. My wife (did I mention she was Mexican) is embarassed by the attitudes of illegal immigrants who feel they are “entitled” to citizenship (not to mention a mortgage for every strawberry picker).
My Indian friends daughter who is seven and is going into the 2nd grade can do Algebra. She can solve 4 equations simultaneously. This is no joke. Education and money will buy Indians high paying jobs, political power, money, prestige etc.
Watch out what this country might look like in about 20 - 30 years.
Double income no kids Indians … working like crazy …
“‘At some point we might decide to just dump it - lower the price to where it’s the lowest in the area,’ he said. ‘But I’m not sure we’re quite willing to do that yet.’”
Keep holding out douchebag, reinforcements are on the way..
NOT.
It is amusing.
Lower the price, or shut up.
“Homes in Santa Clarita go fast. But on Sunday, six homes will sell in a matter of minutes, as Kennedy Wilson Auction Group is planning to auction six homes at Deer Creek at Placerita Canyon Estates in Newhall.”
Gold 1st found in California @ Placerita Canyon, in 1842…
http://www.scvhistory.com/scvhistory/signal/worden/lw012496.htm
Got mineral rights?
“Homes in Santa Clarita go fast..
Yes, so fast that the builder has to auction them off. The Signal, our local paper in Valencia, had just stopped reporting any news on housing here. The last article that mentioned slow sales was about the cupcake lady.
Yep, also when I look at the recent listings in Valencia you can tell that the area is down 15% at least from peak of late 2005.The house I sold is down 100k from what I see and still going down .
I wonder if they are still going to build all those housing tracts off of HWY 26 that was in the works for so long . If they build those projects the freeways are going to be the biggest nightmare you can imagine ,if they aren’t already .
Beware: Looks like the builders stocks are making their monthly bear trap runs.
‘Yeah, a lot of people have been squeezed out with requirements for higher credit, full documentation (of income), reserves — the stuff people should have always had,’ Goldman said. ‘The dumb money has left the market.’
Dumb money == investor money == secondary market is dead
Interesting little side note that is not getting too much press is the fact concerning the EU surpassing the U.S. as the biggest foreign market for chinese goods for the second straight month. U.S. economic supremacy is dying ever so slowly and taking the dollar with it…
I wonder if Susan Butler is still feeding the squirrels as promised?
She was the woman in SF that was an incredibly intelligent college administrator who paid $815k for a house that listed at $699k. She had to write a letter and won the bid amongst 10 other people when she promised to feed the squirrels.
Probably so house poor she’s eating them for dinner.
Ha! I’ll bet Susan promised “to serve squirrels”. Kind of a twist on that old Twilight Zone episode “To Serve Man”.
Got acorns?
Ooooh, great Twilight Zone episode. I bet they taste just like chicken.
Eating them for dinner and using the pelts as outerwear.
I’ll give up a little Louisiana secret. The trick to eating squirrel meat is marinating it in turtle urine.
I nominate you for the next TVFood Network Star/Top Chef something or other.
But when you come to my house for BBQ, I’ll supply the meat, ‘k?
LOL
Will there be a clip of Not Missing It collecting turtle urine?
My dad shot and ate squirrels as a kid. He said that the meat was so tough that they cooked it in a stew for many hours. Also, they only ate squirrels in the winter: he said that they were too unhealthy in the summer to eat. They used their trained dogs to “tree” them.
Sorry to be such a downer, but if you eat squirrels, please don’t eat their brains! This is how people get the mind-wasting thing that is now called “mad cow disease.”
Thanks, just gagged on my popcorn
GPBlank wins comment of the day!
R O T F L M A O ! ! ! !
Dang, that’s quite a memory–I couldn’t remember any of the details of that story. She’s probably out feeding ON the squirrels in her neighborhood to get by. Funny what a difference a couple of years (and a discreetly inserted word) makes. Poor squirrels.
Yes, be discreet with that word. We wouldn’t want the internet nazis at work to see it =-o
Think “monthly nut”
ROFL
“Sharyn Crown, a Coronado-based real estate broker, said her 30 years in the real estate business have taken her through several downturns and booms, but there’s something different about this one.”
Ya, got that right Sister… There’s something in the air about this that just doesn’t go down well. The critters are real jittery.
I downloaded this PDF “House Prices in America” by Global Insight, just to check the stats on Santa Barbara. Get it here (you must register):
http://www.globalinsight.com/
Sample:
“Price declines have been experienced broadly across the over-valued metros since early 2006. Indeed 66 metro areas have lower home prices in mid-year 2007 than at the end of 2005. These include double-digit corrections in three California metros, led by -12.6% in Santa Barbara.”
…
Most Overvalued places in the US:
Santa Barbara has fallen from 60 percent overvalued in 2005 to only 34 percent overvalued in 2007!
This still makes Santa Barbara the 8th most overvalued place in the US (based on house prices v. income).
Where does San Fran rank? We gotta be top 10…..
I hear you guys are going to start giving out “free” health care, that should keep your already low taxes… low
If anyone is interesting in attending the SF Bay HBB party in Arguello Park this Saturday, September 15th at noon, then please RSVP here.
I will bring a purple frisbee and maybe some potato salad if people are actully gonna come out. Otherwise, it might just be the frisbee and one husband.
Peace out,
Big V
Yeah, typos, I know.
I’d like to be there but unfortunately can’t make it now…
Hi, I’ll be there. See ya.
so is FL #1 or can the IE of CA compete ?
Don’t be selling the Inland Empire, short.
Got them both beat. Much of Michigan is back to late ’90’s prices. Just add a little recession elsewhere and the real fun will begin.
“‘That worsened it. The first-time home buyers went away. So the affordability is just not here any longer,’ said Alice Curtis, Creative Property Services manager in Santa Rosa.”
Hmm. How about we try to rearrange the pieces into the logical order:
“Homes haven’t been affordable for about four years and the funny-money loans finally went away, so the buyers are gone and no homes are being sold.”
“In some outlying and entry-level markets, in particular, home prices are also taking a hit as foreclosures surge higher.”
Outlying like, um, SAN JOSE and SAN FRANCSICO???? Where all the high-paying engineering, science, legal, and finance jobs are? Where all the startup companies and international businesses are? Where all the museums, restaurants, and everything are? Yeah, that’s really “outlying”
From the previous thread:
“I don’t think the government can be blamed if some people are dumb or gullible (i.e., they trusted a salesperson to make decisions for them).”
Yeah I agree. My point is that there are some (stupid) people out there that just didn’t understand what they were getting into. Per AG’s recent comments the government knew what was going on (was actually complicit in it) but did nothing to curtail it. And that’s wrong.
I agree. I blame the government for their part too.
“‘At some point we might decide to just dump it - lower the price to where it’s the lowest in the area,’ he said. ‘But I’m not sure we’re quite willing to do that yet.’”
Dutch auction time is almost here.
“Fewer homes sold last month in San Diego County than in any August in 15 years, DataQuick reported. The 3,104 homes sold marked a 19.4 percent drop in sales volume from August 2006, and a 48 percent drop from the nearly 6,000 homes sold in August 2005.”
So much for the red hot summer sales season…
“Many of the deals that closed in August, and that show up in data now, began in July or early August, before the drastic tightening in the mortgage market.”
… and on to the post-credit-crunch ice age.
“‘The market is just different because people are so nervous,’ she said. ‘The lenders are running scared and the buyers are running scared. When you have a company like Countrywide (Financial Corp., a mortgage lender) laying off thousands of people, people get nervous.’
——————————————————-
Nervous? No, I’m quivering with anticipation!!
Re: “In many of Santa Clara County’s more affordable neighborhoods, home values fell compared to last summer. Deepak Satya, a renter in Cupertino who plans to buy a house there relatively soon, said he has noticed some reduction of list prices recently in that city among homes priced in the $1 million range.”
This guy should really wait if he can. It sounds like he might be stretching just to get into a home in Cupertino. This is one of the reason how we got into this mess in the first place.
The last time there was a big downturn in the Bay Area back in the early 90’s once the downturn began there was 17 straight quarters of yr over yr negative appreciation for the area. 17 STRAIGHT! Hmmm, let’s see that’s 4.25 years if I’m not mistaken. He should wait a lot longer than just till the end of this year IMHO…
‘The dumb money has left the market.’
Nope - the dumb money is still locked into houses, as their owners futilely try to sell them.
You beat me to it.
Yup…the dumb money will only leave the market when the Sheriff tells them to. The slightly-less-dumb money will leave the market when they actually unload the stuff at auction. The only question is whether history will judge the auction buyers to be the smart money, or just the somewhat-less-dumb-than-that money? My guess is that will depend on how the stuff cashflows for the next few years afterwards…
And the dumber-than-dumb money is what keeps those monthly house sales higher than zero. (Although, as I said above, there are some areas where year-round rentals hardly exist.)
“‘My goal,’ Hsii said, ‘is to get the lowest price possible.’”
“‘Buyers are hearing more and more about foreclosures and declining values, and frankly they are terrified even with these ‘great values’ being offered and are afraid to be purchasing when prices may still go down,’ said Steve Johnson, regional analyst for MetroStudy.”
Then why buy now!!! Is ith the wife pushing you….. Get a life and wait. We are now where near a bottom.
I am getting so sick of the stickiness of prices in south bay area that I feel like I need to relocate to get into something in the near future.. Any ideas? (Places like Cupertino, there are 25 offers to a million dollar home, isn’t that crazy)
Hi Bubbleswamy:
I think Cupertino may be considered mid-peninsula. San Jose is a lot cheaper (in rent as well as RE). In any case, you will probably save a lot of money by just waiting a few years.
Bubbleswamy, no matter where you go it will probably be cheaper in a few years, but anywhere in CA it’s a sure thing.
I am getting so sick of the stickiness of prices in south bay area that I feel like I need to relocate to get into something in the near future.. Any ideas? (Places like Crapertino, there are 25 offers to a million dollar home, isn’t that crazy)
I used to think just like that. But as you can see, hardly anything is selling around the Bay Area. Thus one can make the easy calculated guess that once and for all, prices will be on their way downward. Patience is a virtue.
Anyone been watching the crazy stock market. News is negitive and the market just keeps going up. Not much volume?????
BEAAAAAR Trap!
massive volume on CFC…
Cheerleaders rule
How did the U.S. market manage to completely ignore the Northern Rock thingee today?
I think the only thing that is keeping the market somewhat miraculously up is that everyone on Wall Street just KNOWS that the Fed is going to cut rates. Not that this really matters, but the attitude seems that if you wait for the Fed cut, then you’ll have another few days of positive market days to add to the limping pony.
My best analogy would be someone who has a clunker car and keeps pouring gallons of “Stop-Leak” into the engine as it sputters along. If I were to put money on what the market will do Monday, I’d be willing to wager that the nice little Northern Rock debacle along with other negative British banking news will brew all weekend and cause some negative numbers Monday.
“I think the only thing …”
What about all the liquidity the Fed has dumped into the credit market since the onset of the August credit crunch. Are you saying you don’t think that has any effect whatever on stock prices?
The money the Fed added as well as the tiny rate cuts are marginal in compared to the enormous amounts of debt incurred via securities. We’re talking literally trillions of dollars here. Anything the Fed does will be merely token symbolism.
Look at it either this way: the market is going to tank and now is the time to buy dirt cheap.
or the other way: run for the hills.
And that hedge fund news that I mentioned below!
Oh, mentioned it Bits Bucket.
test
These reports from the Bay Area pretty much confirms what I’ve seen in my neighborhood and others around me: NOTHING is moving. I mean literally nothing. I mentioned this before, but it seemed that as soon as mainstream media began reporting the subprime mess, things just halted.
To me, this seems like the start of an era I’ve been waiting to happen for years. Viva La’ housing crash!
To add to your point — yesterday I checked the comps for 4S Ranch (aka Foreclosure Ranch) on ziprealty.com. Nothing showed as having sold within miles since March 2007. We seem to be living in a comp-free world at the moment.
Which City in the Bay area are u referring to…i am not seeing the same in Cup/Sunyvale area atleast..
Yes, prices are down in Sunnyvale. Haven’t checked cupertino. Go to http://www.altosresearch.com for more info.
The Bay Area is like an onion in terms of it’s high price/low price, housing bubble/housing collapse scheme.
As you will recall, Sacramento began it’s fall roughly a year or so ago. After that the numbers started slowing in the Bay Area marginally. In fact, prices were still going up as recently as Spring.
It goes like this from coolest to hottest: Modesto,Stockton,Hayward as the coolest regions that saw sales and prices fall first before the same effect began creeping inward towards parts of Oakland and the core East Bay like Berkeley and El Cerrito.
San Fran and Silicon Valley are only now starting to see some serious slowdowns. SF, San Jose, and other extremely overpriced ritzy areas will probably see a correction later. I think they are around 3-6 months behind in terms of their down cycles.
A simple way to look at it is that when one area starts to falter, it’s neighbor will be affected to an extent. This creates a domino effect. Eventually even the most “juicy” areas will get affected.
Just watch and have fun.
San Jose is way down. You can find the monthly or weekly y-o-y numbers at http://www.dqnews.com
The monthly numbers come frome the SF Chronicle, and the weekly numbers come from the Mercury News.
Oh, forgot to tell you that SF is down a bit too. Got that from the Case-Shiller index.
‘The dumb money has left the market.’
And the smart money can’t afford 2005 prices. Which means the sellers will not be able to find buyers unless they drop their prices to reflect incomes.
Correction, PB…
The smart money WON’T PAY 2005 prices. Hell, I can afford 2007 prices, but if I were stupid enough to buy right now, I wouldn’t be smart enough to make as much money as I would need to in order to buy in the first place. Ahhh, sweet irony…
San Diego County reported 2,699 new foreclosure filings for July versus 3,104 homes sold in August. Would anyone care to venture a guess as to when the number of new foreclosure filings will surpass the number of homes sold? (Next week’s RealtyTrac data release s/b very interesting!)
Thursday, Sept. 13, 2007 | Fewer homes sold last month in San Diego County than in any August in 15 years, DataQuick Information Systems reported Wednesday.
The 3,104 homes sold marked a 19.4 percent drop in sales volume from August 2006, and a 48 percent drop from the nearly 6,000 homes sold in August 2005.
…
An incessant flood of foreclosures through much of the county demonstrates one significant effect of the mortgage crunch: many people who borrowed money for a house a few years ago can’t now qualify to refinance into the kind of reasonable terms they need to hang on to their homes. RealtyTrac reported 2,699 new foreclosure filings in July, a 139 percent increase over July 2006 and a 907 percent increase over July 2005. That firm expects to release data for August next week.
“It’s come to this: For roughly every two homes sold in August in the capital region, one house went into foreclosure, according to the newest sales statistics released Thursday.”
Holy Crap!!! I had to read it twice for it to sink in…no comprehend, but, Holy Crap!
er….should read I had to read it twice for it to sink in…I comprehend the statement, but my brain refused to believe it…LOL
That’s umm 50% for all you mortgage broker math wizzes.
Yeah. I was really amused by the way the worded that one. They tried to make it sound like the ratio was 3:1, but it’s really 2:1. Funny.
actually it sounded lik 2:1, how did you reach 3:1
It makes it sound like there were 2 houses for sale that weren’t in foreclosure, then another one that was in foreclosure. If a person was just skimming headlines, they would probably have a 50% chance of interpreting it that way.
Wasn’t it either Riverside or San Bernardino county that recently had a month when there were more foreclosures than sales?
if you hate agents
uhoh…for any who trade on TD Ameritrade.
http://tinyurl.com/2yt7e9
That is why you should not run SQL Server. Windows is too vulnerable to this kind of stuff.
I do a lot of penetration testing, in my experience most of the major databases are vulnerable to these types of attacks.
Yes, but Malware I usually see on Windows.
Yep, I got an email from them today (I have a rollover IRA with them - not too much money in that account). Anyhow, here is the email that they sent:
September 14, 2007
You do not need to make any changes to your TD AMERITRADE accounts or to change the way you do business with us.
Dear XXXXXXXX,
Let me tell you why I am sending you this email. While investigating client reports about the industry-wide issue of investment-related SPAM, we recently discovered and eliminated unauthorized code from our systems. This code allowed certain client information stored in one of our databases, including email addresses, to be retrieved by an external source.
Please be assured that UserIDs and passwords are not included in this database, and we can confirm that your assets remain secure at TD AMERITRADE.
What we want you to know:
Because you are a former TD Waterhouse client, your information has only been stored in this database for a short time. We were able to conclude that while Social Security Numbers are stored in this particular database, your Social Security Number was not retrieved.
Once we discovered the unauthorized code, we took immediate action to eliminate it. We are confident that we have identified the means by which the information was accessed and have taken appropriate steps to prevent this from reoccurring.
You continue to be covered by our Asset Protection Guarantee, which protects you and your assets from any unauthorized activity that may occur in your account through no fault of your own. If you lose cash or securities as a result of such activity, we will reimburse you for the cash or shares of securities you lost.
To further protect you, we have hired ID Analytics, which specializes in identity risk, to investigate and monitor potential identity theft. ID Analytics provides identity risk services to many of the country’s largest banks and telecommunication companies, as well as government agencies. Following its initial evaluation, ID Analytics found no evidence of identity theft as a result of this data breach. We will retain its services on an ongoing basis to support your TD AMERITRADE accounts and to monitor for evidence of identity theft. We will alert and advise you if any is found. As always, we encourage you to remain alert in guarding your personal information, regularly review your account statements and monitor your credit activity from the major reporting agencies.
For more information on protecting yourself against the possibility of security threats, please visit our online Security Center.
We sincerely apologize to you for this situation and want to assure you that protecting the security and privacy of your assets and information remains a top priority. We have made and will continue to make significant investments in security software, systems and procedures, and we will remain vigilant about protecting you.
We want to answer any questions and address any concerns that you may have about this matter. For more information, including a list of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) and an additional message from me, please go to http://www.amtd.com or contact Client Services. Please note that we are anticipating increased call volume during this period, which may lead to long wait times. We encourage you to review the FAQs and, if you have a question, to log on to your account and send us a secure email. Once again, please be assured that your assets are secure at TD AMERITRADE.
Sincerely,
Joe Moglia
CEO
TD AMERITRADE
ORMOND BEACH, Fla…GREAT. Just what FL needs, a Martha Steward housing community. Lawd, ya just can’t make this stuff up!
http://tinyurl.com/2goprw
I think we found your trademarked motto (TM)
LOL
She’s got cheap ($15 bucks a bottle) wine coming out next year maybe she’ll throw in a case with every sale.
TEST
“Many of the deals that closed in August, and that show up in data now, began in July or early August, before the drastic tightening in the mortgage market.”
———————————-
yep. we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet….
About this fiasco being the fault of Greenspan: Do you suppose the WSJ is full of it when it says some 52% of the loans now viewed as questionable were made by state-licensed mortgage companies not subject to federal regulatory control? Did lenders make the decision to start issuing ARM’s based on Greenspan’s musings? How many borrowers said “Gee, honey, Greenspan says an ARM is the way to go”? Greenspan instructed lenders to make 100 LTV loans on “stated income”? And how many people paid him any mind when he warned of “irrational exuberance” in 1996? What is this, Daily Kos?
what are state licensed mortgage companies not subject to federal regulation? I’ve never seen this posted here before.