Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Lower prices? “Need evidence that the high-end housing market is in turnaround? Well, the news that Lorraine Bracco has dropped the price of her 2-acre Sneden’s Landing estate to $2.9 million pretty well proves the point. The home, you might remember, was first listed all the way back in 2004—right around the time the air first started leaking out of the real-estate bubble—at $4.4 mil.”
A new home fire sale? “Calling it a fire sale might be a little much. But one of the Triad’s top home builders kicked off a three-day discount blitz Friday in hopes of luring hesitant home buyers and bringing in some quick cash.”
“Hovnanian Enterprises has cut prices by more than 20 percent in prime markets and shaved more than 10 percent off the price of some Triad properties.”
“‘I’ve been here for eight years, and I’ll be honest with you,’ said Richelle Smart, an area sales and marketing manager for K. Hovnanian Homes. ‘We’ve never offered anything like this.’”
More foreclosures? “The number of houses hitting the auction block in Tarrant County will be down in October, but Dallas-Fort Worth is still on pace to surpass a record 40,000 foreclosures this year, according to figures released Thursday by Foreclosure Listing Service.”
“‘This will be the highest level of annual residential foreclosure postings since the real estate bust of the late 1980s,’ said George Roddy, president of the Addison-based company.”
“The lower monthly figure does not change the trend that has been building for five years, Roddy cautioned.”
Or realtor recommendations. “In reality, so far, resale prices for some of the hardest hit residential communities in the Valley are down around 16.4 percent from the December 2005 peak.”
“If we anticipate the worst - mass foreclosures, with lenders dumping properties for pennies on the dollar - what can you do now to escape ruin? Price your property to sell.”
“If you live in an archetypical suburban Phoenix home, your house is worth today just about what it would have sold for in April or May 2005. If you’re priced higher than that, you may be priced too high to sell.”
I’ll bring the marshmallows…
“Calling it a fire sale might be a little much. But one of the Triad’s top home builders kicked off a three-day discount blitz Friday in hopes of luring hesitant home buyers and bringing in some quick cash.”
Yeah, I heard about this yesterday morning on CNBC. These idiot comentators were saying it is a good opportunity to get a home 20% below “market” and that the prices will then return to normal-NO THEY WONT! This is not a Tupper Ware sale-these lower prices will be the new market. Also imagine if you bought a new home last year at the higher price-They have blinked this is the beginning of the end folks.
In case they didn’t know, that 20% below market price is the new market price.
Funniest thing is a 20% markdown isn’t enough to move significant inventory in many areas. Now that is the beginning of the end!
Got popcorn?
Neil
Wrong, Neil. It is the end of the beginning.
RE: End of the Beginning.
How apt…but not to worry-everything’s contained.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070915/D8RM70480.html
“Despite Darling’s message, lines stretched around the block Saturday at some of the bank’s 76 branches in Britain and the bank extended opening hours to deal with the situation.”
Those darned little people won’t listen!
Buyers across SIlicon Valley keep diving in. Who needs a discount?
See the latest snapshot at:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id359.html
Thanks!
I’ve seen a lot of open houses this weekend around SV — more than anytime since about March.
I suspect that the farther we get into the great Credit Unraveling, mortgage lenders will realize that the absolute minimum down payment they need to require, to keep their auditors and shareholders at bay, will be the purchase price minus the amount the property could be worth at the end of the bust. Most places, that has to be 20% or more; here in Florida, I wouldn’t lend more than 50% of peak prices. It matters not to me how much the buyer puts down, if it doesn’t keep me whole after price deflation.
Agree, Chip. That would be about 50% here in San Diego as well (despite the “fact” that **everybody** wants to live here).
Agree, Chip. That would be about 50% here in San Diego as well (despite the “fact” that **everybody** wants to live her).
As for mortgage recording, I think lenders will be irresponsible if they do not include wording that allows them to call and foreclose if any additional mortgage liens are recorded on the property prior to x months passing or y percent increase in appraisal. The Bank of Mom and Dad will have customers queuing up pretty soon now; hope they understand that for the next several years Junior will be in great peril of losing the advance.
“one of the Triad’s top home builders kicked off a three-day discount blitz ”
I wonder if they’ll release the numbers. I wonder how long before they’ll be announcing #2 in a long series of these sales.
The “starter home” market in Houston has collapsed. There are no buyers. This is not an exaggeration. In the hood next to mine is a street with 6 empty houses, lined up pretty as you please. If there is no market for decent houses built within the last 15 years that cost less than $100,000, I can’t imagine what is going to happen to the “starter home” market in prime bubble areas.
Larger 4 bedroom houses in the new mega-developments are selling ($150k-$190k), but they are resorting to freebie gimmicks like “$20,000 in free upgrades!” in order to move them.
Thanks for the update Lou.
Lou: I took my pooches for a walk around Memorial park area. (Nice area as it is adjacent to wooded area). Plenty of SFH tear downs with McTownhouses going up in their place. Saw one group of 3x 3 floor stuccor monstrosities that were all for sale by different RE companies. Only 1 was occupied. I guess they all thought they’d buy and sell for ‘profit’.
FIVE YEARS AGO……..The Florida Market was filled with houses under $100k. Now most “start” at around 200k, thanks Alan (the biggest idiot on planet earth) Greenspan.
But prices are falling fast. Some friends just sold their 230k assessed house for $105k. It sits on 1.25 acres, an a-frame construction with mezzanine bedroom, and has a 3 car unattached garage and workshop. It needed lots of work.
They close next week.
But the biggest problem here is finding all the bargains………..
The REALTOR-PIGS(tm) have taken to flooding Craiglist and other free advertising services with their overpriced sH*T.
One broker on Clearwater beach has filled up the Tampa list with everyone of their crap high-priced flipper dreams. You have to wade through all the junk to find the good stuff.
It is really tiresome. I really wish they would all go bankrupt so we could have some free-market enterprise without their ponzi-flip interference.
Have any other of you folks noticed the FREE ads getting flooded with REALTOR ads??
Obviously they the regular news ads aren’t working for them any more.
-d.
This is my favorite part of your post:
REALTOR-PIGS(tm)
Every time I see the word ‘realtor’ capitalized with a trademark symbol, I want to laugh. How can these people patent a word that was in common use for thirty-two years before they stole it in 1948? Even the spell-checker I sometimes use to check my posts tells me that I need to capitalize “realtor.” So, I refuse. “Realtor-Pigs,” however, should be patented. You could get rich in years to come.
“Larger 4 bedroom houses in the new mega-developments are selling ($150k-$190k), but they are resorting to freebie gimmicks like “$20,000 in free upgrades!” in order to move them.”
Lou, those prices sound so low to this cny-er. Larger 4 bedroom construction is in the $300k’s up here. I was curious what price range you thought those would be correcting to.
“If you live in an archetypical suburban Phoenix home, your house is worth today just about what it would have sold for in April or May 2005. If you’re priced higher than that, you may be priced too high to sell.”
- This price target sounds too high. The correct pricing should be closer to end of 2003 (asking price). This would allow the seller to not insult the buyer when they offer 20% less.
Exactly right SoBay. The Phoenix market peaked around 8/05 so 6/05 pricing is a joke for the price today. Same old R/E dishonesty imho.
The Az Republic RE section for the NW section of Phoenix from yesterday showed a shocking trend. This section listed the RE sales (I assume they are in reality,closings) for the last week by zip code for the NW section of Phoenix (the 5th largest city in the nation). Not one zip code showed the number of sales with more than 1 digit (less than 10). An example of the sales data in our zip of 85379 was– 5 sales this week, Previous four weeks:88, Same weeks last year:242. I do not think the buyers are going to be fooled by that RE hack telling them that house prices are at May or June of 2005 levels.
I am buying fresh popcorn.
“An example of the sales data in our zip of 85379″
“I am buying fresh popcorn.”
With the possible exception of Pinal County, living in Surprise definitely provides the best front-row seat to the housing price bust.
Did you expect good advice? The “expert” is Greg Swann, who is delusional regarding the Phoenix housing bust and refers to bubble blog participants as “flying monkeys.”
SoBay — 2003 pricing is what I’m seeing here in Central Florida — and it’s not bring lots of buyers, either.
just peaked out the window here in ORegon.
Nuthin sellin. Nobody talkin. Nobody drivin.
good luck sheeple, your gonna need it.
but JLS Homes has 6 months no payments! On 450K houses!
I don’t know where you are in Oregon but in the 97487 zip (near Euegene) property is selling like hotcakes IF they have two to five acres for about $350,000 (+ or - depending on outbuildings and location). High inventory of new and existing houses on regular lots and they aren’t selling, even after price reductions of $20 or more.
I’ve been searching the Eugene Craigslist since Feb for the term ‘reduced’ - in Feb there were 19 hits. Yesterday there were 114 hits.
The thing about Oregon is that it is totally dependent on outsiders to come in and buy up RE from California. That spigot is obviously drying up.
In every neighborhood I have lived in during the last year there has been 4 or 5 houses for sale - I have never seen one of them actually sell - the signs just get replaced with a sign from a different realtor or become FSBO.
“‘I’ve been here for eight years, and I’ll be honest with you,’ said Richelle Smart, an area sales and marketing manager for K. Hovnanian Homes. ‘We’ve never offered anything like this.’”
Nonsense. You were selling equivalent homes for a third of the current price eight years ago.
Right. I visited the “Sale of the Century” in the Dallas area to find that prices are 20% higher than they were two years ago. I know this because I have been looking for a long time.
I had a hard time getting getting them to understand that a “Sale of the Century” should price homes lower than they used to be two years ago, or they should at least chance the name of their sale. Mostly blank stares, but definitely some annoyance also.
Wife and I were the only ones at two communities on Friday night BTW.
Notes on the IE/hi-desert far exurbs of Scal:
have been doing daily drives up to barstow and pass thru Victorville daily. I am still seeing billboards advertising new homes from the $300,000’s. WTF! Nobody is buying homes anywhere in the high desert now. With the price of gas currently at $2.80/gal it would consume $130-150 a week to do the 200 mile round trip from LA/OC out to victorville.
On the surface, Victorville still seems buzzing with traffic and most folks probably don’t have a clue as to the RE meltdown about to hammer the high desert.
I have also been out to Norco Daily and have been to a few shops there: the local target store has been dead almost all august right thru sept. FYI Norco, a riverside county community just north of Corona off the I-15., is one of the IE former rural manure-smelling cowtowns recently caught up in the new IE housing development boom. IT will be slammed hard as a ton of new tracts were put up there, and Norco is one ugly smelly hot dustbin, completely unattractive even by IE standards. Incredibly as it may seem, they are still advertising new homes for sale at $500-600,000 on signs hung up along the freeway retaining wall off the I-15 in norco.
Note: Was out to Barstow late friday the weekend after labor day and it was dead. The two brand new motels-the hampton and holiday express on lennar drive east of the I-15- are completely dead. No Las Vegas travelors at all clogging the 15 thru the Cajon pass, and I went from Norco to Barstow in under 1.5 hrs, an astonishing fast rate going over the Cajon pass on a late friday afternoon.
I think that Sept thru most of NOV, and possibly thru end of year, will see a severe consumer and RE lead economic contraction, and most severe in the SCAL IE/high desert far exurbs.
A little sidenote: In the city of Stanton/Garden Grove in OC I Was talking to a lady working at a club as a bikini Bar Hostess who was a realtor/mortgage agent trying to make ends meet. Wasn’t too bad looking in a Bikini i might add!
-I went to visit my mother on Labor Day weekend in Victorville. Usually traffic is absolute hell! We did not encounter any heavy traffic on the I-15! Vegas must be getting the Big Lebowski without Juan Sixpack tooling up there and dropping his home equity line of credit at the casino’s.
[being forced into a limousine]
The Dude: Hey, careful, man, there’s a beverage here!
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU SPORK A STRANGER IN THE COMPS!!!!!!!!!!!
“No Las Vegas travelors at all clogging the 15 thru the Cajon pass, and I went from Norco to Barstow in under 1.5 hrs, an astonishing fast rate going over the Cajon pass on a late friday afternoon.”
That is a big switch. I’ve been unlucky enough to be caught in traffic headed to and from Vegas on weekends before. It can be bumper to bumper traffic or just miles of parking lot on the freeway outside of Barstow. Cajon Pass can be really bad as well.
Victorville, Adelanto, Hesperia… all those communities out there are toast, if only because of the awful commute, let alone the ridiculous prices.
Timing is everything amigo. You have to be in front of the wave of FB commuters to Victimville. You must be at the top of Cajon Pass by 2:25 PM on Friday nights. Not a second later.
Bah. Maybe I had too many mojitos last night (and I did) but I guess things are still selling in Philadelphia. Or at least Realtors are still lying.
But 1 million dollar homes in Fitler, while nice — sold for 350 back in 2002 and I’m not willing to pay more than 500 for one (and it shouldn’t need any work).
“If we anticipate the worst - mass foreclosures, with lenders dumping properties for pennies on the dollar - what can you do now to escape ruin? Price your property to sell.”
Warning to the wise…
That bright shining new house, surrounded by empty decaying brand new houses, is not the neighborhood for you.
When you decide to buy, buy in an established neighborhood and if you are sneaky enough, after finding the right house in the right neighborhood, go ahead and check out the skinny on your potential neighbors, financially.
Surrounded by paid off houses, in a bad economy…
What me worry?
Call me silly, but it used to be that if one were to commit to paying for a dwelling over entire decades of their lives they would do so in a safe and attractive area. Not any more, today’s logic seems to suggest that spending several decades worth of income is justified no matter what the present or future conditon of a neighborhood might be.
Of course a lot of recent homebuyers don’t know even the most basic fundamentals about what makes for quality construction - so how could anyone ever expect them to comphrehend demographics?
Oh, there is goning to be so much pain.
Thanks to the EEOC and other govt. programs, the demographics are constantly shifting.
When HUD can buy houses in middle-class neighborhoods and move in welfare trash, how can you assure you neighborhood will hold up.
I’ve watched entire areas turned from working-class neighborhoods here to GHETTOS, in about 3-5 years.
Get the FEDs out of our lives and we might get stable neighborhoods and stable pricing again.
I think it is too late.
And the Fed can bring in planeloads of foreign refugees and dump them on a town without notice. Witness the thousands of Somalis sent by the Fed s to the formerly nice, middle-class town of Lewiston, Maine. Schools, welfare costs, hospitals, housing, property taxes have all taken the hit. Pick a town like Kennebunkport or any town in Fairfield Ct, where the residents have political juice, and they have safe from the ever-helpful Feds.
I still say this is the goal: make EVERY neighborhood into a ghetto. That way, everyone will be miserable and spend all their time watching their back and moving from place to place and less time keeping an eye on their elected Congress-critters, demanding jobs, etc.
And you have just summed up my # 1 personally held reason that RE will never again be the investment it once might have been. Thank you. Renting might just be the way to go - even if prices do come down. Taxes and HOA will not come down - and as you point out - neighborhood stability is not what it once was.
I agree with watching what community you buy in..even in the new homes..I would rather bargain with the builder on one of the last 5 homes left in the community than buy one of five only homes that are built in the community they are trying to sell…
Pullman, WA
98 MLS listings, 9 pending (most quite old).
5 previously sold lots in a prime subdivision just popped back on the MLS
Pending lot sales have been sitting for months without closing.
We are starting to see a lot of relistings with small price drops ($5-10k), but nothing major. The best home at the best price within a market category will still sell, but even those are taking some time to move.
Moscow, ID
126 MLS listings, NONE pending! (In fact I haven’t seen a pending sale on the Moscow MLS for a month now.)
Market has completely shut down.
I had read a while back about parents buying houses and condos for their kids to live in while attending college. I guess that didn’t happen in your neck of the woods. Was in Moscow in mid 70s and it was farmland then.
Actually that did happen here. The new or newre high end homes on the market have been up all spring/summer. But in late summer we saw a big surge of low end homes dumped on the MLS. These are clearly rentals that speculators are trying to dump now that the market has tanked.
This spring when we were looking at houses, just about every one we considered bidding on was purchased by a parent buying for a kid to live in and rent out the rooms (parents mostly from the Seattle area). You know something is out of whack when parents are buying $250k homes for undergraduates.
in Netherlands parents buy tiny 100-200K rooms (not homes) for undergraduates in university cities; there are usually 6-10 of those rooms in one old city home, separated by cardboard or something similar. They even have special mortgages for those student rooms; the government cheers this innovative idea to prop up the housing market (all tax-deductible, of course).
Been doing this in Ashland, OR (Southern Oregon University) for a couple of years now.
I haven’t been able to post in a long while because I’ve been busy unraveling some developer’s multiple corporation shell game scheme, after he had stiffed one of his investors for 250 grand. During my investigation I herd the latest mantra from realitors that do business at Big Sky. “Sale will pick up when the skiers come.” Meaning sales have been dead at Big Sky the whole summer.
Good to see you are alive and well Duane. I posted a couple of weeks back that Bozeman had 14 sales in the month of July (peak sales month historically), with an inventory of 1000+. Ouch!
The Gallatin Valley RE market has completely collapsed. And with the Wall street credit crunch, I’m guessing that Big Sky will have particularly hard times ahead. No big bonuses in stockings this Xmas, so no play money for that $1million condo on the mountain.
There is a large sub-division on South 19 that has not had a single lot sold. I believe they started selling in the spring. I’ve been told that a major local realty broker ( Sue Frye) is invoved with this development. Awile back they were flying Californians here to try to get some sales. Mean while more sub-divisions are being proposed.
Also If you remember the Texas S & L crisis in the 1980’s, there was the I-30 condo scandle. It looks like a situation simmilar is developing in Bozeman. I have to go to the Clerk and Recorder office Monday to confirm some information so I can’t give any details right now. But the bank involved is The “Bank of Bozeman”. Check out their web site, and Safe and Sound at Bankrate.com.
Are you having comment problems again Ben? My stuff isn’t coming through.
Visited Fresno yesterday. For sale signs everywhere and the local RE agent told me nothing is selling- It’s just DEAD.
Batten down the hatches mates!
I went to Fry’s Electronics in SoCal yesterday. Granted it was a work day, but the place was DEAD. This is a retailer where people would fight over parking spots 2 years ago.
Went to Costco (210 FWY @ Sierra) at 2 PM no one waitng in a line for checkout, again. Two samplings same store, same day, same time, three months apart.
I sure wish Burbank CostCo was like that. It’s a madhouse constantly.
Burbank is still holding solid, BTW. But then again, Burbank is full of those good “established neighborhoods” with families that have been here 20-30 years. There’s nowhere to build new subdivisions. That’s a good thing!
I have noticed that many little McMansions have sprung up in the past 5 years. Seems to be very common to tear down an old 1948 house on a 6800 sq ft lot and build something enormous to replace it. Problem is that it doesn’t blend very well with the rest of the neighborhood and they are left with a postage-stamp backyard (Burbank yards are normally decent sizes by SoCal standards).
I went to Home Depot in Brunswick ME last Thursday morning at around 10:30AM.
Stupid chucks had no cashiers on duty. Only way you were goin’ out was thru one of those self-pay kiosks.
Each one had about 10 elderly confused customers in line, so I dumped my crap in an aisle and left.
Imagine a biz so screwed up, they can’t even pony up a body to take money from customers.
Short this POS operation. HD is dead meat.
It appears that in my part of Chicago some developers are betting on renewed demand for high end rentals. Another letter from an attorney’s office arrived this week informing me that the owners of a somewhat decent rental high rise nearby would like to combine three top floor apartments and construct a 1500 sq ft penthouse on the roof in order to produce one mega top floor pad.
In addition to this a brand new 45 story apartment tower is planned across the street - and their attorneys are also mailing out the required notices.
One block away I was somewhat stunned to learn that new condos, up until this past spring at least, were still commanding around $450k.
Any lurking Chicagoans get a glimpse of the Sept. 14 Red Eye - page 5? It is quite possibly the most outrageous RE ad I’ve ever seen. (sorry no scanner at home) For those not from Chicago - the Red Eye is a free rag targeted almost exclusively to 21-35 y.o. Accordingly it is packed full of ads for all the latest condo developments.
On the RedEye website, MCL (a Chicago condo developer) is the big advertiser.
The East SF Bay Area first time buyer market has completely seized up. Town homes in the nicest areas (Danville, San Ramon, Walnut Creek, etc..)have not sold all summer (100+ days on MLS) That was BEFORE the jumbo rate jumped to one point above the prime rate, standards were tightened and “creative” loan types were removed from the market. Going forward, I expect sales to plummet even further in the entire Bay Area region because people won’t be able to trade up or downsize if they can’t sell their current residence to a first time buyer. There are multiplier effects in the housing market. Remove the first time buyers and the whole game collapses.
Here in the Rogue Valley, Oregon prices are dropping by the week, but very little is selling in my focus range ($2-300k). A lot of variation. Some folks are cutting $60-100k on ~350k houses, others have cut 5-10k. Seems like fewer locust than in previous years and with fall in the air, it is starting to get good.
Bonus (If anyone cares): My handle Mr. Fester dates to the first time I discovered this blog in the midst of the S. Oregon poison oak sap rising season of spring 2005. I had a good festering,oozing bodywide case when I came to the light of RE truth. I love my home area, even with its real estate and dermatological hazards, so I wear “Fester” badge with pride.
Up here in Portland, I’m watching Bend absolutely implode, from a distance. I think it will be VERY ugly there. Especially since the first SNOW isn’t far away.
I agree MacAttack, Bend is cratering too, because it,like the Rogue Valley, was a locust magnet. Ashland is even worse with respect to price inflation, because our market is much smaller, our wage base smaller,major slashes at the only decent employers (Southern Oregon University), and we were a target for “upscale” types from CA.
It will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
I have also been following the Bend market closely….All those developers are now trying to dump there approved subdivisions some, complete with infrastructure….Its going to be a long winter…..
It creepy, kind of groovy
Raining always gloomy
the Northwest Blogmunity
Well…You are cratering in Idaho? State of Washington is an island of good news(economy, housing market,jobs, low subprime mortgage) according to The Spokesman-Review business section today.
Ooops, ’scuse me—Oregon!! Idaho is also an island of good news.
’scuse me-Idaho, Our newspaper’s say Montana is a island of good news. They have 90 year tradition of burying bad news about our fine state. They are continuing to follow that tradition no matter how bad things are.
Has the Bozeman Chronicle still not published anything about that bankrupt subdivision on S. 19th?
No, They have not published anything about the local market for months. The only thing they print is about new developments proposals. They are running a few national stories about the housing bust in their business section, which tells me they are worried about the local market.
Brother reported from Sun Valley ID that is dying quickly in construction. He does high end finish work and said many of the nose in the air crowd are putting off remodels and home improvement projects.
Grant County, WA: Picked up a RE rag off the rack at Safeway the other day; lots of “high-end” homes for sale, pages of ‘em. Along my daily bicycling route I just saw a nice home and both vehicles in the driveway, all with For Sale signs! To top it off, winter will be here in a few weeks now, and trust me - dead cats don’t bounce when it’s cold out.
Sellers ( home owners and builders) in SW Ohio are standing firm on their prices even thought the homes have been on the market for 6 months to a year.
I saw a couple of them reduce their selling price by 1-3K and advertised it as a “huge” price reduction. One house I have been watching has yet to reduce his price by $1 and just keeps rephrasing his ad. First is was “hurry this one won’t last”. Then “hurry prices are going up”. Now it says in bold type “Priced to Sell”!! It is at the same price it was a year ago.
This may be a long wait for prices to come down to match wages.
Not that long, IMO. All that will matter is differentiating between those who have to sell, or need to sell, and those who don’t. The latter aren’t worth dealing with. Those two examples sound like don’t-have-to’s.
Chico Erratum:
I made a post yesterday (to Anthony, I believe) that Chico was a nice town, so it would not drop to $125k. Yes it is nice town, but I just remembered my wife’s brother bought a nice little 2/1 there in 2001 for $86k. So to distinguish myself from the Gary Watts, D. Lareahs, and souffle dudes of the world, I will just say…I was on crack. Chico is toast!
I should add Chico, CA is where I was talking about.
It’s a rare man that will admit a mistake. Kudos to you.
Here in GA home prices are holding steady even though inventory is up. In cities closest to Atlanta, prices are pretty much what they are since the area is so built up that you already know you will be paying a premium for the lesser commute. Farther outside of Atlanta, say Cummings, lots of competition with builders since there are so many new home communities. Of course this is making it harder for resale when of course you can buy new with incentives to boot. The market here didn’t really go price crazy as it went more in the building or tear down…still very affordable housing available…still have people driving around on the weekend house hunting..
In SFl a whole other story…although sellers are not willing to reduce prices as much as they should, they are having Closed Sales anywhere from $20K- over $100K less than list price(almost all CS show huge variation between list and closed)…DOM vary from 45-120+(more closer to the 120+). Inventory just in Broward County(SFL) for SFH have surpassed the 17,000 mark. Which is putting it at about 3 plus year levels…I expect that will increase as we get closer to all those ARM ajustments…They just did a survey with the local newspaper showing 85% of those surveyed want out of Florida due to the high cost of living…
Yes, I see many leaving.
Even people’s power bills are about doubled. To make matters worse, Cops are out in full force writing tickets to try and close the tax income gap.
Nice way of kicking your citizens while they are down.
What state are you in Tom? I’ve noticed similar changes.
Our local village paper which shares its classified pages w/other towns in the greater Syracuse area was chock full of job classifieds. Usually there are a handful of jobs posted. This week’s paper had several pages of ads. At first I thought this was positive. Then I thought, “are people leaving the area in droves?” It does seem like the streets, the stores, everywhere I go is very quiet. It is surreal.
I have natural gas for heat and my bill went up $40/month. I ran into a friend who said her 1st oil delivery of the season came this week and the price doubled over last years’. WTF! (Did anyone see where British Columbians saw a reduction in natural gas bills last week?)
If prices in Cumming fall, prices in Va. Highlands will fall as well. $700K 1500 sq ft homes in Va. Highlands will not be $700K for long, nor were they $700K 5 years ago, more like $450K. Overall Atlanta did not see much of a bubble, but ITP did see it in some neighborhhods, VH, Druid Hills, Emory especially.
Fulton’s median income is $45K, Dekalb’s is $48K. Not bad, but not enough for all the BMWs and Land Rovers around. People here are living way over their means. Home Depot is most likely going to lay off more, Suntrust is in trouble. Delta will see a slowdown as we approach and enter recession too.
Personally I have seen a change in mindset recently. Among my friends I have gone from being the crazy fool who rents and is throwing his money away on rent to the guy who rents because he foresaw what would happen and wasn’t so crazy after all.
Agreed J J -
Intown prices in Virginia-Highlands, Druid Hills, Emory, Candler Park/Lake Claire, and Inman Park have experienced a huge bubble. Prices have doubled over the past 4 -5 years. It’s riduculous. These homeowners are living off of cashout-refi/perceived increase in home values. We are renting for the same reason.
As a contrast to the crazy intown increases in “stable” neighborhoods are the areas being “revitalized” that have increased due to flipping and “investors”. These areas are high in foreclosures and crime.
I see it all coming down in the next few years as the IO loans people used to buy their homes in ALL areas of Atlanta the last few years resets and the employment picture in Atlanta changes.
One of the biggest problems for the future Atlanta housing market is that it cannot sustain high home prices based on the rate of “premium” jobs being generated here.
Of the 55,200 jobs in 2007 created in Atlanta this year only 5,100 are “premium” ($45,000-plus). That’s less than 10% folks.
http://www2.gsu.edu/~wwwexa/news/archive/business/07_0523_dhawan.htm
What is missed in many of these discussions is:
- the degree to which those who bought, at whatever the price, did so with toxic loans, and
- the level of cash withdrawal via HELOCs and HE loans.
Those with mortgages they cannot afford to service will have to sell. That upsets the natural balance of the market and will drive down prices, IMO.
For all of the Floridians wanting to move to SC here are some examples of the bargains that can be found in one little upstate county. Nothing is being discounted.
http://www.carolina-realestate.com/find.php
As I was reading this topic, it just kept occuring to me that the market here in Greenville/Greer, SC seems exactly the same as it was a year or two ago. We are still seeing new higher prices in all the neighborhoods around us, lookers with out of state plates stream thru our streets all weekend (nothing for sale currently, 60 homes built 97-99, 240K-320K). I believe the national bubble has peaked in most areas, but not here yet. Maybe it’s because few buyers need to use jumbo or creative financing except for the rare homes priced over 450K…just a guess.
Forget it when it comes to the triangle area of NC. Jobs are plentiful and commuting is E-Z. My worry is that they (FL halfbacks, more and more Northerners) will be flooding this area and keeping the housing artificially high. Tons of jobs are not being filled in this area and only a stock market crash will purge these jobs and create a mass exodus.
Many, many of those halfbacks need to sell their Florida home before they can buy in the Carolinas. Last year, they probably could easily have gotten a bridge loan. Not so sure about that any longer.
Your local mortgage people can give you a clue to the short-term future for sales there. Price changes will lag the changes in loan availability, but will follow along nonetheless.
I do not believe that this bust — it’s as much a credit bust as a housing bust — will leave any area unscathed.
I was up in Pismo Beach, CA last weekend and notice there were at least 5 “For Sales” signs on every street I rode my bike by. Mine you the streets in Pismo Beach are very short. I took one of the fly and the asking price for one of the small house is $1.2 Mil.
Those signs were probably pretty faded…I’ve been seeing them like that for about 8 months.
1.2 mil to live on the Redneck Rivera….amazing.
Redneck Reviera…couldn’t have said it better myself…that place gives me the creeps.
Pismo’s okay but not 1.2mil okay. Drive a bit farther north to Avila Beach and eat some seafood on the pier over the ocean, caught that day. Yummmm.
Problem with San Luis Obispo area is there are no jobs. Cal Poly and I think that’s it. I’d like to live there myself but I have no hope of finding a job in my industry (computer/Internet).
Speaking of the creeps, theres a junk store right in the middle of town that has never been open in the 17 years I’ve lived here. You can catch tantalizing glimpses of bizarre, dust coverer junk through the windows.
Makes me think of one of those magical junk shops you read stories about, where the protagonist goes in there and buys some magical artifact that proceeds to make his life hell.
You mean like an over priced house?
No, like a clock that can stop time (old Twilight Zone episode, IIRC).
In my neighborhood (90024) this is a first. There are four SFH’s for lease in an area of about five square blocks around our condo building. Also, there is an empty house with a brown lawn about three blocks away. The house had been sitting empty, but I was kind of expecting they were getting ready for the remodel. This was about four months ago and still nothing is happening. If you drive around, you wouldn’t notice anything unusual. It’s not like there are thousands of “for sale” signs around. But if you check on Zillow, you get quite a few “make me move” blue flags in the area. It’s odd, and a little dizzying to see that so many people want to sell at the same time in an “affluent” area. Signs of distress? You betcha. The sky falling? Not yet.
cass
Kind of cool being a neutral renter type, as you are…
Watching it unfold, and wondering what it was that made a regular house in the city of angles worth a million bux, anyway?
Watching it unfold, and wondering what it was that made a regular house in the city of angles worth a million bux, anyway?
Exactly. Don’t forget I was around (and renting) during the last bust. I almost made an offer for a little 3 bedroom just off Olympic in 1998. The asking price was 349K and we chickened out because my husband had just started a new better paying job and we didn’t feel totally secure. My daughter had just been born and we were also a little overwhelmed with the responsibility of having a baby AND such a BIG debt. I know, don’t laugh at me. Talk about missing the boat. I’m hoping to get it right this time.
“In my neighborhood (90024) this is a first. There are four SFH’s for lease in an area of about five square blocks around our condo building.”
“. . .many people want to sell at the same time in an “affluent” area.”
I rented a room (separate entrance) in a house in 90024 from an elderly couple when I was in graduate school at UCLA from 1998 to 2000. It was on Levering Avenue, just north of the national cemetery. I often have wondered how crazy the prices got around there. I remember that there was a nice but modest house (2 bedrooms-maybe 1,600 square feet) up the street that sold for a bit over $700K back in 1999. That seemed like a bunch to me at the time, but that was basically pre-bubble pricing, right? If I can remember the house number, I will see where it Zillowed at its peak.
Grew up one block from there on Ophir. Parents bought house in 1960 for $55K. Sold it just after the top of the last bubble in 92for $750K. When we grew up there, it was just an upper middle class neighborhood, but a great place to grow up. UCLA was our playground, before it got really big.
“Grew up one block from there on Ophir. Parents bought house in 1960 for $55K. Sold it just after the top of the last bubble in 92for $750K.”
Interesting stuff. Yes, I remember Ophir and Denslow. It was a nice little neighborhood, just a block or two away from the the student-dominated apartment area, which tended to be a bit noisier.
It was funny, but when I first lived there, they did not have alternate side of the street parking for street cleaning, like some other nearby areas. I was basically the only person who parked on the street there anyway, with my little District 22 sticker on the bumper. Then, out of the blue two years later, I saw some new parking rule signs up as I walked back from campus. I looked over at my car, and sure enough, there was a parking ticket. I am pretty sure that the sign was put up in the morning, and that the ticket was issued a few hours later. I was leaving a couple of weeks later for an internship in D.C., so I just paid it and chalked it up as a small additonal expense for living in a nice LA neighborhood with a very reasonable rent. Actually, I was pretty angry for a couple of hours, but I got over it.
The DQ number for August are in the Sunday times this morning, but not posted on the DQ site yet. Cassiopeia, it says that there were 9 SFH sales in your zip last month, median $2215000, down 4.7% YOY. Twenty-one condos sold at a $679K median for a 2.1% YOY increase.
I guess this is a good a place as any to report on the Santa Monica numbers. BTW, a front page story in the LAT RE section about a couple still wanting to buy here in S&M…
90401 - no sales
90402 - 5 SFH, 2 condos, medians and other data listed as “n/a”.
90403 - 5 SFH, YOY flat at 1489K. 14 condos, median up 35.4% YOY to 941K.
90404 - 2 SFH, median down 33.5% to 798K, 7 condos, median up 9.5% to 690K.
90405 - 10 SFH, median +16% to 1275K, 15 condos, median +27.2% to 687K.
It looks like a small number of GFs are snapping up some sweet deals
These medians can’t be very meaningful with the sales numbers this small, but what’s interesting this month is that condos are doing better than SFHs - completely counter-intuitive and counter to historical precedent.
In the article I mentioned above, a local couple is considering a 5-year I/O ARM in order to buy a $1.5 million townhouse. The insanity is clearly not over yet, and I guess this explains the condo numbers if there are more GFs like these two.
Linky
Update on Oak Harbor, Washington (Whidbey Island’s largest city/ population area)
House inventory price range: $89,950 - $2,200,000
Current active house listings (MLS): 390
Sale pendings: 22 (15 of the 22 pendings are for houses priced $260k and less)
Condo inventory price range: $108,00- $449,950
Current active condo listings (MLS): 54
Sale pendings: 2
Summer sales activity: Toast!
Anyone have any insight on Northwest Indiana prices? I’m looking in that area and things seem wildly inflated to me considering this is not a desirable location, what with all the industry. I’m moving back here for family reasons but am not willing to pay prices that are $100 to $200 sq.ft. I think a realistic price would be more in the $50 to 60 per sq ft range.
Mapped Lake Co. IN way back in 2000. Back then Crown Point seemed the hottest market. Southern part of the county wasn’t too bad Lowell, Shelby - but some of the older lake communities - Cedar Lake, and along the Kanakakee River were looking shabby even back then.
Your observations are correct - clever citizens from IL helped inflate the market. Stick to your guns and rent for as long as it takes to get as close to $50/ sq ft. A former coworker and Hobart native - was griping about the bubble in 2003 - a lot’s inflated since then so it will pay to remain patient and mighty stingy.
Thanks for the info Edgewaterjohn. You’re right, it will definitely pay to wait this out. It looks like there are a number of houses lingering on the market since spring of this year, and sellers are holding firm with prices, but that is going to have to change…
Lake County will drop hard when Chicagoland starts to move down. When Chicago sneezes, Lake County will catch a cold.
If you’re looking for newer construction (a mixed blessing given the overall decline in quality), Porter County, esp. Valpo and Chesterton are worthwhile, decent areas.
Palm Springs area is seeing some reductions by builders and desperates, but still way over priced. Comps are high because they high end stuff is still selling. In 01 you could get a nice 3/2 w/pool for $150 to $200K. Same houses now are $500 to $600K. They built tons of huge stucco boxes in faux Med style - looks more like OC than desert.
Valencia/Santa Clarita
3 of the homes that came on the market are close to being underwater or are. One of the sales in my area was a foreclosure with 40K needed to bring it up to liviability (nothing fancy). It had 3 offers but the market is about 650K and they paid 604K. Not much of a deal.
My house is still on market. So far we’ve been on market for 90 days. We just did a price lowering but I don’t think it’s enough. When the listing is expired we’ll probably go with the cheapy broker to get it back on the MLS and then lower the price further. Buyer gets a better price (if there’s anyone who’ll buy it) and we’ll still walk away with more money than with a full price broker.
Bikegirl — credibility check. First, you didn’t say what your original price was, nor the current price and reduction amount — or at least the percentage(s) you reduced. Second, if you are going to lower your price further, anyway, why are you not letting the present agent have a crack at the new price? Unless there’s an issue where you just don’t like the people, IMO it is sandbagging them to re-list with someone else at the same time you drop your price. We’re all for saving money, but most of us here favor being fair in the process.
Not sure what exactly you think is unfair. I think we’ve been perfectly fair. Our original listing price was 769,000 reduced to 739,000 after 3 weeks at our request to 710,000…Realtor suggested 710,000 and thought that 689,000 (our idea) was too low. This is his last shot with this listing, it’s expiring and unless he’s willing to take less, it’s time for us to try something else. It seems to me that the realtor should have a better handle on the price it takes to sell a property in this declining market than the little ol’homeowner. Isn’t that why I’m giving him 3%? I happen to like our realtor but there’s nothing the realtor can do to sell the property at this point…it’s the price.
What I understand you’re saying is that you wanted to price it lower than your agent wanted to go along with. If that is true, in the context of today’s market and credit, then I agree that you should move to a new agent right away.
But that is a very odd approach from agent #1 — never have seen it. If he isn’t the broker, and if he didn’t tell the broker about the difference in ideas about price, he should end up on a pretty short leash.
I’m on my way to a K Hovnanian community in Phoenix. I’ll let you know what they think a “deal of the century” is.
Can’t wait to hear about that one.
I paid a visit to the K Hovnanian in south Phoenix, more specifically Laveen. I asked them how the “deal of century” worked and the sales lady told me, that for a limited time, and a very limited time only, I could take advantage of an incentive package in addition to the $20,000 incentive being offered. The package included washer and dryer, 42″ plasma tv, landscaping pkg., and some money for closing costs. I asked her if I could pass on the added package and just discount the price of the home and she of course. She stated that we could knock off $20,000 more off the price. In short, she was discounting a two-story home that was over 3000 sq ft by $80,000. From what I’ve read and researched on the bubble, this is definitly not the “deal of the century,” not even close to a fire sale. Just another marketing scheme by a desperate home builder.
What a freaking relief to see the beginnings of the END of the RE Mania. There’s a new RE Agency in B’ham called EXIT Realty. Love it. They actually capitolize the word EXIT so when you’re scrolling down the table of contents in the grocery store RE booklets, it jumps right out at you. LOL.
This week, there were TWO cartoons in local papers about the RE Bubble- TWO!!!
Friends in Seattle and B’ham both reduced there asking prices again this week but….no offers yet! Hopefully the one who just left for a year in England finally gets the severity of the situation (what with the run on the bank over there) and will take a lowball if some buyer is idiot enough to offer her 275-300K for her 80K house. It’s on the market now for 315K. (started at 360K end of May).
What a freaking relief to see the beginnings of the END of the RE Mania. There’s a new RE Agency in B’ham called EXIT Realty. Love it. They actually capitolize the word EXIT so when you’re scrolling down the table of contents in the grocery store RE booklets, it jumps right out at you. LOL.
This week, there were TWO cartoons in local papers about the RE Bubble- TWO!!!
Friends in Seattle and B’ham both reduced there asking prices again this week but….no offers yet! Hopefully the one who just left for a year in England finally gets the severity of the situation (what with the run on the bank over there) and will take a lowball if some buyer is idiot enough to offer her 275-300K for her 80K house. It’s on the market now for 315K. (started at 360K end of May).
I finally found a nice apartment in Lowell, MA for our son and we’ll be hopefully moving him into that one from his current one. In the meantime, I’ve learned a lot about Lowell Real Estate in the rental and sale markets around the university.
The kids are packing into the dorms this year. It seems like a lot of the off-campus housing that was occupied last year still has vacancies even after the start of the semester. We looked at one place that still had students in it a few weeks ago that cleared out and it is still for rent. It’s a bit nicer than other places but still a dump. One landlord that we talked to wanted to rent a three-bedroom unit to us and would take a third off the price for us. I’ve heard that dorms are tripled up due to the heavy demand. Lots of kids/parents choosing state schools over private schools.
Their housing market has taken a beating since 2005. It’s a low-income place that thought that they were rich in the housing boom now having to deal with the hangover. Lots of stories about middle-class places and suburbs going boom and then bust but things are unhappier when poor places do this.
I read the other article that mentioned New England and the 30% drops back in the early 1990s. For some places, it was more like 50% though that’s from the peaks in the late 1980s. That article mentioned lower new home starts. I wonder if MA is still losing population. If it is, why build more new housing?
My daughter is in Annapolis. Last year she was in the dorms, but this year she is sharing an apt. w/2 others and it’s actually cheaper than the dorms.
Never did understand why anyone would choose to live in the dorms. I hear they now have “co-ed” bathrooms! Maybe I’m just old-fashioned, but no way I’d pay a premium to live with a couple other people in the same bedroom, share a co-ed bathroom with 30 others and have no kitchen facility. It usually seems cheaper to just rent a cheap house or apartment with roommates — but you get your own bedroom!
Co-ed bathrooms are only fun when everyone’s been drinking.
From Craigslist SD-
$90K loss so far. The sellers paid $560K in 2004. Now asking $469K.
Carmel Mtn. Ranch area.
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/423225402.html
One thing that strikes me as more than a little odd about the construction of this development is that you can see darker vertical outlines of the studs underlying the siding on many of these houses as you drive by. They extend clear up the wall to the roof. Anyone with construction experience able to explain this?
What you’re describing cannot be seen in the photos on CL or on the link provided in the listing. I asked a builder’s rep to take a look at the photos and he could not see the defects you are inquiring about.
Not that I don’t believe you - its just that particular defect (and I would call it a defect) can’t be seen in these photos as opposed to being seen in person.
~Misstrial
Misstrial-
Thanks for the response. The pictures on the link don’t show the problem that I described. It’s something I have seen in person and wondered about. It would be very easy to get a photo of it though as it is very obvious.
“Seller will entertain offer between $469,000 and $509,000.”
Bit late in the season for such pompous wording.
There is no chip board between the studs and the vinyl siding?
Hmm. I wonder.
for those of you who love the Inland Empire in southern calif, here’s some numbers based on closed sales in the MLS for the 8/15/07 to 9/14/07 time period:
Victorville/Apple Valley/Hesperia:
2,753 active listings / 85 sales = 32.39 months supply
Murrieta/Temecula
3,357 listings / 166 sales = 20.22 months supply
Ontario 945 listings / 46 sales = 20.54 months supply
Colton 403 listings / 20 sales = 20.15 months supply
Corona 2,433 listings / 117 sales = 20.79 months supply
Lake Elsinore 856 listings / 28 sales = 30.57 months supply
Hemet 1,062 listings / 32 sales =33.18 months supply
Moreno Valley 2,228 listings / 62 sales = 35.94 months supply
the inland empire area (especially moreno valley and the victim valley area) is hosed, and orange county may not be too far behind:
Santa Ana 1,539 listings / 47 sales = 32.74 months supply
Nice!!!!!! Hope the bastages fry.
Whoa! Looks like heavy fallout in the IE. They are right up with Excremento and S. Florida for the bubble central.
What’s awesome is that # of listings is only going to go up, as these ARMs re-set. It will be interesting to know, in restrospect, what maximum months’ inventory in each housing are will turn out to have been.
Another NZ lurker here - New Zealand Renter, you are not alone. The NZ market is just as screwed up and unaffordable as the US became, and based on the US model, I think that the signs are indicating that we’re going to have the big bust soon. It’s all there - car giveaways with purchase, slowing sales (although prices haven’t come down yet), desperate idiots who swallowed the propaganda and took out 100% interest only loans in order to buy anything anywhere, interest rates rising, banks cluing in and tightening up credit. On my regular bus ride through the Wellington CBD, I see 7 apartment/condo buildings in various stages of construction, and even though two of them appear to be in trouble, more are being planned. In my street of about 40 houses, 4 are for sale (will drop by a couple of open homes this afternoon), and there are some major renovations going on in others, possibly in preparation for a summer selling season that may or may not materialise. A few months ago I was browsing through the financial section of the Wellington Public Library, and found that all the books on economic fundamentals and history, previous bubble-crash cycles, and basic financial planning were all sitting there untouched, but the ‘how any fool can make an effortless fortune through real estate speculation’ section was denuded. There was a four-foot gap on the shelf, with only a lonely copy of some 70’s book about making money from a previous price crash. I took that as a classic ’shoeshine boy’ indicator. When the whole mess does fall over, my greatest concern is rent rises. This year I left my job to go back to university full-time, and my weekly income (not counting invesment dividents, which I re-invest) is $218, and my rent is $110 for a room in a shared house with three others. But even if that happens, it’ll be worth it if I no longer have to listen to clueless condescending sheep lecturing me that I should hock myself to the eyeballs to buy some overpriced shack out in the gang-infested badlands, or be priced out forever.
Appreciate the update. If, like here, there are many investor homes going vacant I would think rent rates will be tempered (for a while, at least) by supply.
Ditto.
“gang-infested badlands”
In New Zealand?? Who are they?
So surprised?? They tend to gloss over it in the tourist brochures, but NZ is packed with seriously nasty gangs. The Mongrel Mob and Black Power originated in the 60s/early 70s, and are roughly equivalent to the Bloods and Crips. Google ‘Mongrel Mob’ for an inkling of what goes on. I don’t think any other country has anything like the Mongies. Even small country towns have rival gangs doing drive-by shootings, murderous brawls, and a hell of a lot of drug dealing (my suspicion is that one factor driving up real estate prices is that there’s a lot of drug money in the hands of people without the know-how to launder or invest in any other way). In the news this morning was an account of a knife murder in a bike gang HQ. There was also the announcement that in Auckland it takes 100% of the median income to pay the mortgage on a median-priced house, and an average of 81% in the rest of the country. So looks like we’re doomed, huh?
Yikes, totally surprised. I live in nyc, but read some british newspapers, and have heard zilch about this. I truly thought NZ was one of the last holdouts of civilized living.
Canada is still nice, but they are building like crazy there, no bust yet in sight, and the loonie is pounding the us dollar.
Oh, well, will have to look elsewhere for an escape.
Sounds like NZ is like Saskatchewan Canada. A while ago I was making fun of housing bubble happening in cities there like Regina and Saskatoon. One thing I didn’t I didn’t mention was that Saskatoon is gang central in Canada. Canadians don’t like to talk about crime in their country because they alway claim that it’s worse in the U.S.. Even though in the U.S there are plenty of communities the size of Saskatoon with far less crime.
“Saskatoon is gang central in Canada.”
I have to go lie down for a while. My sense of reality is shattered.
You want me give you some the gang names? How about Indian posse, Red Alert, Warriors, Native Syndicate, Saskatchewan Warriors, plus the usual Hells Angels. I was off base calling Saskatoon gang central, maybe Vancouver or Montreal deserves that title. I read somewere that there are 14 or 15 identified street gangs in Saskatoon. That’s a lot of punks for a city Saskatoon’s size.
Kiwi — so much for NZ as Plan B. I’d imagine that you have pretty restrictive gun control there — puleeze tell me I’m wrong. What are the rules for blowing away intruders?
I guess most of this depends on the Yen carry trade; as long as the carry trade is profitable NZ real estate could keep climbing; there is hardly anything else that can absorb the flood of foreign money. I do get the impression that in NZ it is a relatively small minority that is speculating in the RE market (especially in the ACK area). Might turn out good for people who were never able to buy and will have lots of new rental properties to choose from at some time in the future.
In south miami an identical condo to the one my girlfriend sold 6 months ago for 155k, is on the mls as a short sale for 100k, there are also identical units on the mls for 117k, 118k
Slid out there in the nick of time, prices in key west are coming down but so much here is close to million, I find it hard to pay attention to properties where the price went from 1.3 million to 1.1 million. Because they are so out of our range.
There are decent 2 Bed room condos on the mls now for around 260-300k, whereas last year, when we first got here the cheapest condo on the island was listed for 400k
By the comments on this thread it looks like we have a recession on the way.
Which will add a whole new leg (stemming from different reasons) to the down cycle.
Amazing, what we see now is mostly a result of last January’s (credit) earthquake. The bigger August one is just begining to be felt - and will take 6-9 months to play out. Then add the R-Word…
Talked to some people in the sportfishing industry in So Cal. When I sugessted we might be heading into a recession, they said, “heading into??? We’re in a recession!”
Just keep hearing in more and more, each and every week.
keep hearing in = keep hearing **it**
Pensacola, FL
* About 7500 MLS listings
* Too many FSBO to count
* More realtors cluttering up craigslist
My mother owns 4 acres of cleared land with an older mobile home that needs major TLC about 20 miles North of Pensacola. She doesn’t live there. She was offered 90K in 2005 or 2006. We begged her to take the money and run. She didn’t sell. She said that if hard times come, we may all have to move up to the property and grow our own vegetables to live. We laughed and teased her about that, but one day momma may point her skinny, crooked finger at us and say “I told you so, now go pick me some okra”.
I am starting to see some rather unusual postings on craigslist.
It looks like the buyers are starting to simply say, “we are not going to take it anymore.”
and it looks like desperation is causing some begging and stories of woe as well. Check this one out: http://dallas.craigslist.org/rew/401085326.html
http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/rew/401496218.html
http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/rew/407750405.html
I love this one the best: http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/rew/412070518.html
I think I may put my own AD up.
The dallas one is a good catch. I love it!
If they want to speak to God in Jupiter, why do they post in Dallas craigslist. But a number of posters on CL do not get that little difference.
Craigslist: the poor man’s therapy session
Tried advertising my car on Craigslist and felt like a kindergarten teacher with the stupid questions people were asking. Put it in Autotrader and it sold right away. I know there are a lot of believers in Craigslist and the price can’t be beat, but I also think that someone should come up with Housetrader, at $10 a week or or so.
A couple of observations from our North Huntington Beach (1963-ish) tract. One house down the street, languishing on the market around $600k for the past several months, just had its “for sale” sign replaced by a “for rent” sign. Another house had been listed on MLS for probably 9 months; now it has a “short sale” sign atop its “for sale” sign, the asking price is $120k less ($440k from $560k), and the MLS listing claims “8 days on market.” What BS. Finally, another house right around the corner just went on sale, “Offered from $600,000 to $629,000″—whatever that means.
N VA s of soviet (DC) turnover is fair at 05 prices- no gov workers fired yet- not one
In the last 2 weeks, I have made several trips to Circuit City & Best Buy in the Sarasota/Bradenton area. I have not been in them in at least a year and there was a noticeable difference. Maybe one person looking at TV’s and there is usually a crowd of people around them. This was true on every visit which totaled about 6 over two weekends. Yesterday, I went into a furniture store to check out a couch we have had our eye on. One of the sales guys nearly tripped over himself while hurrying over to greet me. He asked if I had been there before and I said, yeah many times. He asked if I had been buying stuff from there which I replied ‘nope’. He then went on to tell me I should step it up and buy to support the economy. I had to laugh when he said that since the gross over-spending and taking on massive debt is why the economy is in a funk and is about to get much worse. He followed me around the entire time. Oh, and I was one of only 2 people in this place on a Saturday afternoon…and it’s a big store…..
“He then went on to tell me I should step it up and buy to support the economy.”
LOL - that’s precisely why those how have saved and stayed out of this melee shouldn’t be buying any such garbage right now. Let’s keep our powder dry folks.
Am occasionally checking ‘vacation rental’ websites. The amount of listings there seems to have tripled in the last six months, at least for some popular ’second home’ bubble areas. Some owners seem to sound a bit desperate - I don’t think that this is my projection. If they bought not long ago, they have to ask high rental fees to make their ‘investments’ work. Hence they are not free to lower prices in order to get renters. A lot poured money into ‘granite counter’ renovations. There are some ridiculous wishing prices, while very many have no bookings at all, according to the calendars. Something will give. Actually, I have a couple of nasty thoughts about this part of the bubble story.
sure, I think it works like that in a lot of places. In my area of the Netherlands there are many homes that have lingered on the market for 5 or even 10 years at ridiculous wishing prices (often more than 10x the purchase price from 10-15 years ago). Over the last months I have seen a lot of these homes come onto the rental market at (again) ridiculous rental prices that are far beyond what the local market can pay (except maybe for renters that use the property to grow stuff in the attic). Apparently the owners are realizing that the chance of selling at their wishing price is getting small, but they are still counting on getting the same return on their ‘investment’. I think most of the owners here have not cashed out all the equity gains and should have no problem selling at a 20 or even 40% discount. The problem is simply that they feel entitled to become a millionaire by selling their home.
Back in 2000, a woman I know sold her perfectly fine (and modestly priced) 50’s-era home and had a new, larger, more lavish home built for her family. Because they ‘needed’ and ‘deserved’ it. It was really just the keep up with the Joneses mentality, of course.
In spring 2005 she put that house up for sale, at a drastically overpriced value. She wouldn’t come down, so it sat - until autumn ‘05, when she reluctantly (and angrily) accepted a lowball offer. Turns out she and hubby were thisclose to being foreclosed upon, and the buyer had done his research and knew it.
She then moved her family to Florida and bought another house. Yep, right at the peak.
I’d been talking to people about the housing bubble for quite awhile by then, so I used used this as a real-life example to predict what was bound to happen to her family once the bubble turned to bust.
And so it has come to pass. Exactly as I’d predicted, they lost their house to foreclosure and lost their jobs, too. So they’re moving back home. Into her elderly mom’s cramped little house, supposedly only til she and hubby find jobs and ‘buy another house’ (yeah, right).
And folks who’ve been hearing me talk about the housing bubble and real estate meltdown are now mightily impressed with how I called it. It’s a good example of how a real-life story makes a bigger impression than quoting market numbers.
Good story.
I just went to witness my first property auction. The neighborhood is purpotedly “upscale” with maybe a dozen homes built, 4 of which are on the MLS for $700K-$800K. The lots (about 20 or more for sale) list a discounted price of $270-$240K from previous prices of $300K+.
Two of the lots up for auction today has no minimum, I saw the first one go for $142K…………….this was one that was listed for $310K 2 years ago. I didn’t stay for the second.
I saw one lady (current homeowner in neighborhood) look like she saw a ghost when it ended, I really thought she was going to break down and cry.
Wonder if any of the 8 bidders were shills?
http://www.emmertauction.com/files/emmertsept16fenwick.pdf
^^^^ whoops, meant to post above in todays bits section.
I see growing evidence the high end of San Diego’s market is taking a major haircut. For instance, according to DataQuick, in tony La Jolla (92037 zip code), the August 2007 median sale price for used SFRs was $1,428,500 (down by 14.7 percent YOY) while the current median SFR list price on ziprealty.com is $2,495,000 (two homes are offered at the median price). Thus the recent used SFR sale price is $1,066,500 (42.7 percent) below the current used SFR list price. I don’t believe this gaping hole between bid and asked price can stand for very long, given the high holding cost of hanging on to homes valued at more than $1m in perpetuity. Given the credit crunch and the foreclosure crisis, I expect this disequilibrium anomaly to resolve to the downside.
I got a great laugh out of K. Hovnanian’s “Deal of the Century” nonsense this weekend. Yeah, okay, the prices are reduced by up to $100K - but probably far less on the lower-end and more “affordable” houses. And the sheer lunacy of trying to sell houses like clothing or back-to-school supplies with a “this weekend only!” sale. Maybe I should buy 2 for the price of 1, or something!
Of course, looking over the listing proved that they are still smoking the Bubble-weed. Once one leaves the retirement communities on the list in Maryland, nothing is priced for under almost $400K, and I think those were condos. Right… $400K condos… and that was probably with the discount?! These people are insane!
I can’t wait until the “this weekend only!” price becomes the new price, and then that price goes down, down, down… Duhhh… Why can’t an area with a median household income of $60K buy up all the $400K condos, the $600K starter homes, and the $800K luxury McMansions? Duhhh…..
Didn’t see much for sale in Vermont this weekend driving around and the Saturday paper (Times Argus) only had a few pages of advertising. Back home, I see that the big TD BankNorth “Equity Office” has hung a huge American Flag up on their building overlooking 95 in Burlington, MA. Also, there are a couple of houses in my neighborhood that have been for sale, one empty, for the entire time I have been living here — just over a year.