September 15, 2007

An Extraordinary Market In California

The Recordnet reports from California. “August was a very cold month, at least in the home-sales market. The last time the median sales price of an existing Stockton home crossed the $300,000 mark, in November 2004, it was a major landmark in a long-running boom market. Last month, the sales price crossed $300,000 again, but this time, on the way down.”

“And sales, 118 in August, dropped to the lowest level not seen since the last real-estate downturn in the mid-1990s.”

“The market is flooded with foreclosure homes, credit has tightened hard and most would-be buyers are sitting back and watching prices continue to drop, say local brokers and agents.”

“‘It’s slamming the psyche of the market for sure,’ said Mike Collins, of Collins Realty. ‘All people are seeing are foreclosures, lender layoffs and title company layoffs - all this bad news in the real-estate industry. That makes them want to wait to buy.’”

The Fresno Bee. “Home sales last month in Fresno County were the lowest of any August in a decade, a real estate tracking company said Thursday. The 910 new and existing houses sold in Fresno County represented a 33% decline from August 2006, the lowest number for any August since 1997, reported DataQuick.”

“In Tulare County, the 422 transactions were the lowest for any August since 1998.”

“Concessions to buyers by sellers are helping to mask the true decline, said Carole Laval, an appraiser in Fresno. She cited a recent sale as an example. The new house carried a base price of $340,900, but the builder offered to take 6% off the top if the buyer used one of two preferred lenders. Then, the seller tossed in a free package of options on top of that.”

“Thus, the recorded sales price was $340,900, but the actual price was 9% less.”

“She also shared an example of a transaction in a gated community, where the seller of an existing house gave back $9,450 to the buyer. That amounted to a 3% reduction and when combined with DataQuick’s reported 8.6% drop, led to a year-over-year drop of almost 12% — or 1% per month.”

“‘It is an extraordinary market,’ she said.”

“‘After a year of trying to help first-time home buyers, I came to the conclusion that, although most of them can buy a house and want to buy a house, they are afraid to buy a house. The current market and the sky-is-falling mentality isn’t helping one bit,’ said agent Ron Thomas.”

The Hollister Freelance. “First it was Alliance and Old Republic title companies. Today it’s Century 21 Premier.”

“One of South County’s leading real estate agencies shuttered its Gilroy and Morgan Hill offices today, the latest casualty in a market that has seen a rash of foreclosures and plummeting home sales.”

“‘I think we have two to three more years of a buyer’s market,’ said Susan Jacobsen, who works for Starritt Realtors in Gilroy.” “For too long, she said, ‘people were out there using homes like an ATM’ - borrowing more than they could afford, putting up little or no money, and leveraging any equity they built to borrow even more.”

“In South County, foreclosures abound and homes idle for months without a buyer, according to figures from MLS RE InfoLink and the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors.”

“Median home prices in Morgan Hill dropped to $858,000 in July, compared to $1 million for the same month last year, according to the MLS. In Gilroy, homes prices dropped to $675,000 in July, compared to $725,000 for the same month last year.”

“Larry Cope, director of the Gilroy Economic Development Corporation, likened the exodus to the dot-com bubble bursting in 2001. ‘The old economic rule, unfortunately, is what goes up, must come down,’ said Cope.”

The Friday Flyer. “At a few homes in Canyon Lake, pristine lawns and blooming flowers have given way to brown straw and shriveled petals as a ‘Little Bit of Paradise’ has turned into a financial nightmare for some homeowners.”

“Apparently caught in the web of lenient lending, adjustable loans and stagnant home prices spoken of in news stories across the country, there are some here who have cut their losses and abandoned their dream homes.”

“Paula Clark of Prudential Canyon Lake Realty, an agent/broker in Canyon Lake for 27 years, says, ‘This is the third downturn I have experienced and each has been caused by a different economic situation. It’s the same in that we are flooded with foreclosures and short sales, but the cause is different.’”

“‘This time the downturn is due to financing being too easy to obtain and at high loan to value amounts,’ she continues.”

“Home resale activity comparing July 2007 to the same month last year, showed a countywide median price decrease of 3.2 percent for homes and 5.2 percent decrease for condominiums.”

“Homes aren’t selling at the brisk pace they have in the past. Real estate signs are becoming fixtures on most streets as listings have increased and sales have slowed. Agents like Diana Ballou of Tarbell Realtors have seen a dramatic change in the number of listings.”

“‘When I started two years ago there were on average 80 to 85 homes on the market; now there are an average of 250,’ says Diana, a Canyon Lake resident. With such a large number of homes on the market, sellers are anxious and some agents are experiencing financial burdens.”

“While agents and sellers ride out the economic ripple effects of the downturn, buyers appear to be cautiously waiting for just the right wave. The few buyers who are out there are ‘looking for the steal,’ says Paula Clark.”

The LA Times. “It was supposed to be a blowout sale for home builder Standard Pacific Corp. For days, the Irvine company has been touting its ‘Mission: Possible’ extravaganza in 49 communities throughout Southern California, with bonuses for buyers totaling as much as $20 million.”

“But in Victorville on Friday, the blowout looked more like a washout. Only a trickle of potential buyers showed up on the first day of the 10-day event.”

“The sales promotions ’show the builders are serious about moving inventory,’ said Patrick S. Duffy, a principal at Metro Intelligence. ‘They’re trying everything.’”

“‘They’re beautiful homes, but there’s a catch,’ said Tracy Davenport of Victorville, who viewed the sample properties with her mother, Frances. Davenport said it seemed clear the agents were anxious to make a sale. Despite offers of $75,000 in discounts, mother and daughter left the sales event shortly after arriving.”

“‘They’re desperate because they’ve got to make money,’ she said. ‘They’re trying to get rid of them.’”

“A month ago, Juan Ramirez bought a Diamond Ridge home for $388,000 after the builder offered him a free washer and dryer and $30,000 in incentives. Although the juice-bar owner was worried that the home’s value would decrease, it was too good of a deal to pass up, he said.”

“‘You’ve got to take a chance to see what happens,’ Ramirez said.”

“But others weren’t convinced. As she left the sale with her daughter, passing by a fence draped with a ‘Mission: Possible’ banner, Frances Davenport expressed doubt that the builder would reach its goal. “‘It’s an impossible mission,’ she said. ‘They’re saying possible, but I think it’s impossible.’”




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95 Comments »

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-15 12:02:03

“A month ago, Juan Ramirez bought a Diamond Ridge home for $388,000 after the builder offered him a free washer and dryer and $30,000 in incentives. Although the juice-bar owner was worried that the home’s value would decrease, it was too good of a deal to pass up, he said.”

LOL. I assume from the article that the home was also in Victorville/High Desert area. $388,000 for an area with average household income of only $50,000; looks like someone caught a falling knife. Doesn’t seem to be much disposable income per household left to support a “juice bar”, so he probably loses on both investments.

Comment by wmbz
2007-09-15 12:38:26

What’s a used washer and dryer worth? A hundred bucks or so, and the other “incentives”. I am certain I will never be able to comprehend the density of my fellow man. This juicer got nothing but screwed, but he feels good about it and that’s all that counts.

Comment by paul
2007-09-15 15:27:16

Considering the context:

“This juicer got nothing but squeezed…”

 
Comment by vfsv
2007-09-15 16:43:44

Except for the part about getting a discount, buyers across SIlicon Valley are doing much the same thing, buying & hoping prices don’t fall.

See the latest snapshot at:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id359.html

Thanks!

 
 
Comment by Rich
2007-09-15 12:49:35

Now we know Juan can be bought off with a washer and dryer does this guy know he just got SCREWED ?? I can see him telling is wife (in spanish) “yeah I had them eating out of my hand”

Comment by dude
2007-09-15 15:29:27

‘comiendo de mis manos’

 
 
Comment by Rickoshay100
2007-09-15 13:37:20

I wonder how he’s going to feel about that “to good of a deal” next year when the home is worth $100k less……

Comment by Hold out in LA
2007-09-15 16:00:56

And every year he can enjoy paying property tax for his $30,000 upgrade washer and dryer.
A reminder for anyone going out to pick up a “fire sale”. Incentives rolled into the sale price means you are paying annual property taxes for granite countertops and Viking ranges.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-09-15 17:00:46

Won’t matter to him, because he got a good deal “at the time.” I suspect that he looks at a house in terms of the monthly payments, so the deal becomes relative, as with cars.

 
 
Comment by bottomfisher
2007-09-15 14:24:36

Juan will probably be loading the washer & dryer into the pickup at 2am in about 6 months, and leaving the keys in the mail box…..then he will drive past his zero down ‘too good of a deal to pass up’ for the last time.

 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-09-15 16:09:56

“‘You’ve got to take a chance to see what happens,’ Ramirez said.”

Economic Darwinism hard at work. Or, if you will, one supid mother f-er.

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-15 22:42:57

Agreed. LMAO

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-15 12:04:59

“‘It’s slamming the psyche of the market for sure,’ said Mike Collins, of Collins Realty. ‘All people are seeing are foreclosures, lender layoffs and title company layoffs - all this bad news in the real-estate industry. That makes them want to wait to buy.’”

There has never been a better time to buy wait.

Comment by Chip
2007-09-15 17:01:46

I’ve become a proud member of the “wait” staff.

Comment by Mr. Fester
2007-09-15 21:51:40

LOL! Count me in.

Comment by Marco De Maria
2007-09-16 04:59:32

Italy is waiting too!
Thank you America for this nice bubble bath.
Marco De Maria
ps. got a popcorn?

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Comment by dan
2007-09-15 12:07:26

“She also shared an example of a transaction in a gated community, where the seller of an existing house gave back $9,450 to the buyer.”

This is a very stupid thing for the buyer to accept, since the property tax will be based on the full STATED sales price ..without reflecting the ‘kickback’. The more money the buyer gets back ‘under the table’ the more the buyers are screwing themselves.

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-15 12:25:33

Agreed. As well, if the loan & appraisal were based on the STATED sales price (unadjusted for cashback), then the seller, buyer, real estate agent(s), appraiser and mortgage broker ALL engaged in loan fraud. But I guess they all know what I have been asserting for months now - the FBI will do nothing since we can’t have hundreds of thousands of people in Federal prison. And we wonder what’s wrong with the morals in our country. LOL

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-15 20:10:45

“the FBI will do nothing since we can’t have hundreds of thousands of people in Federal prison.”

Maybe the local cops could plant a joint on them. Then the FBI would see them as real criminals!

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-09-15 22:43:39

That’s pretty funny.

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Comment by Chip
2007-09-15 17:09:13

I was going to lowball a fairly small custom builder by 35% on the last house in a particular subdivision. He wanted instead to throw in that much in upgrades or anything else I wanted, in order to keep up his comps and not piss off past buyers or inspire future ones to lowball. But even assuming we could have made it work with ethical and income tax-neutral contract wording, why would I want to pay 1/3 more in property tax to save the builder’s acorns? No way.

 
Comment by pismoclam
2007-09-15 19:04:37

I had reported earlier this week about a project in Nipomo, ‘The Woodlands by Shea’. One of my friends was in line to be a F’d buyer but he was saved at the last minute. A Suzanne type had gotten to his wife, so dutifully he marched out to the subdivision and gave them a deposit he even had made arrangements to cash some securities for an all cash purchase. A ha however, they then gave him copies of the By Laws and CC&Rs which he took home to read. I had warned him about the Communist/Socialist activities of HO associations. He read them and BACKED OUT of the deal and got his deposit back. The ‘Suzanne’ type RE saleswoman was p’od to put it mildly. Another F’d buyer saved by the bell. Remember Friends shouldn’t let Friends buy houses.

 
 
Comment by Ernest
2007-09-15 12:10:27

“I came to the conclusion that, although most of them can buy a house and want to buy a house, they are afraid to buy a house. The current market and the sky-is-falling mentality isn’t helping one bit,’ said agent Ron Thomas.” ”

What about the mentality of twilight zone valuations, fraud & wink wink nod nod? Is that helping?

Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 12:16:37

This quotes make me laugh!

Afraid? I’d say calculating. Calculating as in figuring out afford ability. And why were they not complaining about herd mentality when it was “buy now or be priced out forever.” Chuckle… Not to mention this is like car discounts, you can only rob from future sales. Unlike cars, homes are around for decades… Hmmm….

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by manraygun
2007-09-15 12:41:52

Right, it’s called projection. Take what you are feeling on an unconscious level and “project” it onto someone else. In this case it’s agent Ron Thomas’s own fear that he’s seeing in buyers.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 13:55:35

You’re right! I’m going to borrow that. Love this blog!

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Comment by Mr. Fester
2007-09-15 21:56:39

Yea, great insight. What a self-delusional a$$wipe!

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Comment by Groundhogday
2007-09-15 13:01:38

No, most can NOT buy a house without ultra loose lending.

 
Comment by Annette
2007-09-15 15:45:58

I would say that buyers are finally getting the message..walk don’t run…

 
 
Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 12:14:23

Everyone,

I’m organizing a housing bear party/dinner in the South bay part of LA.

When? 9/30/2007, 6pm. Redondo Beach Cheesecake factory. Invite a friend, bring your significant other… RSVP on my blog. Thanks Ben for creating such an awesome community!

Neil

Comment by ylekiot1
2007-09-15 12:24:19

Neil,
Wish I could come. Gotta ask, are you bringing the popcorn? Didn’t know you had a blog. What is it?

Comment by Wickedheart
2007-09-15 12:30:36

Click on Neil’s username.

 
 
Comment by SoBay
2007-09-15 13:14:22

Sorry, if it was on my workdays (Mon -Tues or Thur) I would stop by. I work about 4 blocks north of the Redondo Beach Pier on Pacific Coast Hwy.
I usually get to the Cheesecake Factory only at our Christmas Party. Have a great time … I spend all of my time in the So Bay and the delusion runs very, very deep here.

 
Comment by az_lender
2007-09-15 13:29:34

Neil, on your blog you suggest email responses, and you point people to “the link in my profile” - I looked at your profile and don’t see any link that appears to point to your email. ????

Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 13:45:41

Hmm… its should be visible.

I’ve created wannabuy3@gmail.com (my blogger name)

Neil

Comment by Houseless
2007-09-15 14:57:49

Count my wife and I in!

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Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2007-09-15 17:18:25

i organized some la get togethers last year but interest was low

Guess i was early just like my puts

My wife and i are in see ya all there!

Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 17:34:03

Captain Credit Crunch

Good to have you. As I’m trying to note, I take no credit for the idea. Welcome aboard!

Neil

 
 
Comment by M.B.A.
2007-09-15 18:08:40

neil - not sure how many at this point. put 3 - including me, but it may only be 1. I may not know for a week.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 18:48:13

Sure. No worries. I expect it to fluctuate quite a bit.

Good thing the place isn’t as busy as it used to be…

Neil

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-15 12:20:13

The reek of bad finance…

“‘I think we have two to three more years of a buyer’s market,’ said Susan Jacobsen, who works for Starritt Realtors in Gilroy.” “For too long, she said, ‘people were out there using homes like an ATM’ - borrowing more than they could afford, putting up little or no money, and leveraging any equity they built to borrow even more.”

Comment by manraygun
2007-09-15 12:44:04

Susan Jacobsen… Isn’t she the agent who used to post here, maybe six months ago? If it is her, she’s changed her tune.

Comment by az_lender
2007-09-15 13:31:01

There was someone of that name posting here, I’m thinking more like a year ago

 
 
 
Comment by Ernest
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-15 12:35:41

Why do I get a whiff of the stench from future hedge fund blowups when I read that article?

 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2007-09-15 16:20:40

But the trigger has to be pulled by Central Bankers who will never do something to make things worse. Why call in gold loans if you can just keep printing money. They can just stop loaning at 1%.

 
 
Comment by New Zealand Renter
2007-09-15 12:32:48

I moved from Cupertino to New Zealand in 2005. Out of the frying pan into the fire. If you think California is bad, it is even worse down here.

Substandard condo conversions: “The leaky building problem surfaced in 2005 and the committee has been trying to collect levies towards the work since June last year.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/8/story.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10463786

Bogus appraisals: “The properties sold last April for $1.7 million. The valuation presented to the banks - which they exposed as fictitious - was for a cool $2.85 million.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/8/story.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10463839

Booms in the outer exurbs (think Lodi): “Real estate agent Amanda Wynne shakes her head in wonder when asked about the demand for property in Matakana, an hour’s drive north of Auckland… She has seen sections in the tiny village (pop 324) almost treble in price - up from $140,000 to $400,000 - and says demand is now far outstripping supply.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/8/story.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10463790

Comment by Van Gogh
2007-09-16 00:38:22

i think this goes to support the fact that this real estate mania is of total global proportions and that in fact with all of the anecdotal evidence everywhere that this is way way worse than the 1929 collapse set up. Thus as this unwinds then one ought to prepare for a horrendous global implosion and in that event nothing will be safe. The Northern Rock implosion in the U.K. looks to be just the very beginning of the Debt side of this and in time i don’t think the appetite of TPTB will be so sustainable as to think that all lenders will be saved from all of this and since we all have our dough in the banks of these lenders have been gaming this incredibly (historically) illiquid market with, one really needs to try to figure out what to do at least a step or two ahead of the next gap down in all of this. I already own a bunch of physical gold and have been quite ambivalent about adding more on here but IF the world above ground physical gold is only 4 or 5 billion ounces, that is only $ 3 or $ 4 trillion of real money against all the phoney fiat paper credit and money floating out there in the twilight zone. Maybe it is time to buy and take home some more physical gold regardless of anything and just for insurance purposes. Any ideas or comments are really welcomed as i am really starting to think that the day may soon come when more financial institutions start biting the dust and even us housing bears start get churned up in the mincemeat grinder.

Comment by New Zealand Renter
2007-09-16 02:44:38

I have most of my savings in physical gold and it is stored at a vault storage business which is not located inside a bank. In other words, I won’t have to get past the police line in front of the bank run riot to get to my vault.

 
 
 
Comment by Brad
2007-09-15 12:44:52

“I came to the conclusion that, although most of them can buy a house and want to buy a house, they are afraid to buy a house.”
—————————————-
scare tactice: you will be priced out forever, don’t work anymore

newest tactic: insult the buyers, call them cowards, chickens, shame them into buying

good luck with that approach

Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-15 12:52:12

“…they are afraid too smart to buy a house.”

 
Comment by Mr. Fester
2007-09-15 22:02:50

Yea, Something about this guy’s whiny, insulting comment frosts me.

Comment by Big V
2007-09-15 22:49:11

Hi Fester:

I think it’s because he repeats the snippet “buy a house” 3 times in his sentence. That sort of thing is always annoying if you ask me.

 
 
Comment by Melissa
2007-09-15 22:50:31

There are also those homeowners who call them losers for being renters. Love that insult!

 
 
Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-09-15 12:53:37

C-Span3 has an old interview with Ron Insana from back in 2002. He was talking about watching market trends and bubbles in the economy. He predicted that RE would be viewed as the next can’t lose investment in the economy due to easy money policies. If the Fed lowers rates and causes more inflation and a weaker dollar, and with tight credit, gold seems like a good bet. Depending on how the world economy does, uranium could be the next asset bubble. My money is on Uranium One and Paladin.

Comment by Chip
2007-09-15 17:15:28

I wish Paladin were still turning in the fraudsters and posting here to tell us about it.

 
Comment by Anthony
2007-09-15 17:24:33

Even John Rogers, of the Rogers Commodity Index, wasn’t too excited about gold. He thought silver, lead, uranium, and almost every other commodity would outperform gold.

Comment by Chip
2007-09-15 19:20:35

Regardless of all other arguments for and against gold, the Indian wedding season is approaching. Newly prosperous Indians will be buying 21-23K gold jewelry in large amounts, for dowry. Little “nuggets” like that might affect the price, for timers.

Comment by not a gator
2007-09-16 09:48:19

Rhodium

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-15 13:33:49

Yes, we have no home sales

“But others weren’t convinced. As she left the sale with her daughter, passing by a fence draped with a ‘Mission: Possible’ banner, Frances Davenport expressed doubt that the builder would reach its goal. “‘It’s an impossible mission,’ she said. ‘They’re saying possible, but I think it’s impossible.’”

 
Comment by Saint Barbara
2007-09-15 13:36:17

“At a few homes in Canyon Lake, pristine lawns and blooming flowers have given way to brown straw and shriveled petals as a ‘Little Bit of Paradise’ has turned into a financial nightmare for some homeowners.”

At last year’s Santa Barbara Film Festival I screened a documentary film about life at Canyon Lake entitled “United Gates of America.” Below is a BBC squib about the film, which has been shown on the BBC but never on U.S. broadcast or cable networks, as far as I know. BTW, on Monday (9/17) I’ll have a new post up at my Santa Barbara Housing Bubble Blog. (Click on my screen name to visit the blog.)

——————-
UNITED GATES OF AMERICA

Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Charlie LeDuff journeys into the heart of California to experience life in a gated community. Canyon Lake has become a haven for white, middle class families who have fled the cities for peace of mind. The locals love it so much they’ve dubbed the city A Little Bit of Paradise.

But LeDuff encounters something more sinister going on beneath the veneer of swimming pools, lakes and golf buggies. Gathering stories from both sides of the fence, he runs into skinheads, stoned teenagers, desperate housewives, a porn director and a former Hollywood stuntman.

What are these people running from? What are they looking for behind these gates? And what happens when you separate the haves from the have nots?

Comment by Brad
2007-09-15 17:42:01

I’ve got new for you: nothing is perfect

 
Comment by ex-WA
2007-09-15 20:23:14

And this is different from any other middle-class neighborhood, how?

 
Comment by Big V
2007-09-15 22:50:56

“What are they looking for behind these gates?”

Less through traffick.

Comment by Big V
2007-09-15 22:51:40

traffic

Had to correct that one. Was annoying to me.

 
 
 
Comment by luvs_footie
2007-09-15 14:37:51

Panic on the streets of Britain: Northern rocked, City shocked.

Although this is old news it’s a good article.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/comment/article2964436.ece

 
Comment by breakthespeculators
2007-09-15 14:52:23

no ‘Juan the juice factory owner’ you don’t GOT to take a chance! you rent for 5 more years, keep building and earning interest on your down payment fund, then buy for 50% less than today’s prices! stop listening to the realtors bull.

and why can’t these stupid realtors stop calling a declining market a ‘buyer’s market’? it’s not a buyers market if you shouldn’t be buying!

 
Comment by Mike
2007-09-15 15:15:26

If you live in California, or most other places come to that, get ready for a lot of economic misery as this credit crunch reverberates throughout the economy. We are probably already in the early stages of a recession. Forget what the so-called experts and ecomomists are saying about we will probably, “Avoid a recession.” We will not. Remember, these clowns told us on the CNBC Comedy Business Show that, “The sub-prime problem would not effect the overall economy because it wouldn’t spread.” Here is a classic example of what we are looking at:

My wife does some accounting work at several companies. One is a three man (three woman actually) operation. The owner (a woman) is doing okay. Making well over $150,000 a year. The other two employees are a slice of life in California. #1. Her husband was a mortgage broker selling sub-prime. They lived like royalty for 6 years to the point where, by faking the numbers, he upgraded their living quarters from a $150,000 condo in Simi Valley, to a $1.2 million ranch house. Then came the downturn. Suffice to say, he is now bankrupt and unemployed. The wife never stops crying because they have hit a financial brick wall. All the goodies, like RV and boat, are gone. The children are not getting everything they ask for, etc. #2. Divorced her husband in 2001. Had their house since 1995. Two children in their teens live with the mother. She told my wife, in a display of sobbing, that she has maxed out her house to the hilt. Her medical insurance is over $1,000 a month for her and the two teenagers. At one point, the house was “valued” at $725,000. She said she has - wait for it - $75 to her name in her bank account. It gets worse, the ex-husband has been paying child support but he has been laid off from his construction job which was paying $80 an hour. She is now on medication for depression. Thinks that’s unusual? Think again.

One thing is a given. DO NOT listen to the numbers coming out of Washington for the next 2 years. They are going to hide the bad news as much as possible and hype any good news as much as possible. DO NOT think that Helicopter Ben can get out of this incredible financial mess by lowering interest rates. In fact, with other countries, especially those in Europe, raising interest rates, lowered interest rates in the US will probably do more harm than good. Of course, foreign investment which the US relies on for economic survival, will head for the higher interest rates and that ain’t good for the US.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 17:55:31

First, I agree the government will spin this for years.

the house was “valued” at $725,000. She said she has - wait for it - $75 to her name in her bank account. It gets worse, the ex-husband has been paying child support but he has been laid off from his construction job which was paying $80 an hour.

So… she has less than one hour of his gross income in savings. Or 0.01% of her house’s bubble value in savings. Oh… that will get far. I’m planning to keep 10% of the purchase price in savings.

Its too late to do anything. Well before thanksgiving the markets will fall apart. Credit cards cannot pass on the ‘credit default swaps.’ In other words, the breaks are about to be slammed and forget ABS. We’re going to spin.

Oh well.

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by Ken Best
2007-09-15 19:59:57

Talked to a local furniture man. “Nothing, not a single sale this week”.
The worst he has ever seen in years in the Bay Area.

 
Comment by cactus
2007-09-15 21:14:09

Lots of mental illness out that way maybe because its soooooo expensive to live there. WTF the FED thinks it can do about it I’d like to know. 150K for a condo in Simi ??? thats a pre bubble price.

 
Comment by BuyerWillEPB
2007-09-15 22:10:18

DO NOT listen to the numbers coming out of Washington for the next 2 years.
———————–

I Partially agree with that.

I think we can listen to the information sent out by government reports, but utilize a little critical thinking as well. We need to understand that we must also become masters of reading between the lines, understand the information might be time delayed, and understand the information will not be the WHOLE truth.

One trick I see a lot of lately is the “Revision.” Soon we will probably get a “revised” report that says, “Despite previous reports we have actually been in a recession for the last two quarters.”

 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-09-15 22:16:38

Thanks for posting these wonderful anecdotes! Watching the bloodbath through the lens of statistics and news articles is all well and good, but it’s the stories of the catastrophic errors that individuals and families have made that gives our Schadenfreude that special human touch.

 
 
Comment by luvs_footie
2007-09-15 15:25:33

I guess this is old news to most on this blog.

All I can say is WOW!

Rep. Bernard Sanders vs. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBnKh6B2cMw

Comment by Chip
2007-09-15 19:22:13

Note that this testimony appears to have been given when Sanders was a Representative, which would have been before Fall, 2006.

Comment by Chip
2007-09-15 19:24:54

Correction/clarification — relative to taking office, it would have been before he took office following his 2006 election to the Senate.

He is, to my knowledge, the first declared socialist to be elected to the U.S. Senate.

 
 
Comment by LookinInCali
2007-09-16 01:31:38

When was this video made?

Comment by dukes
2007-09-16 06:23:34

Great video!

 
 
 
 
Comment by aeyra
2007-09-15 15:55:39

A month ago, Juan Ramirez bought a Diamond Ridge home for $388,000 after the builder offered him a free washer and dryer and $30,000 in incentives. Although the juice-bar owner was worried that the home’s value would decrease, it was too good of a deal to pass up, he said.”

This made me laugh. The juicy juice man gets juiced on his juiced up house. I’ll agree that watching this housing bubble is like the Comedy Channel. We have a bunch of California refugees/invaders here in Sioux Falls and I guess we must be getting Juan’s relatives since half of the CA types here are buying up $250K- 400K McMansion houses with six different outer textures and the big barn sized garage for the SUVs/Hummers. The ones in the big SUVs and the German SUV brands are the worse; they ride up on you in traffic and they have the typical horse-face yuppie look when they’re in the store. No wonder most of CA booted them out. This city is like a Third World country now except everyone’s white. ICKY ICKY ICKY! They even want to open up Juice bars and crap here too…since when do we have juice shops ala Starbucks?

Comment by Mr. Fester
2007-09-15 22:12:02

California hummer jockeys in Sioux Falls? I am amazed. Maybe that is part of the allure. Move to the midwest and live like a king..??

 
Comment by breakthespeculators
2007-09-16 06:46:45

i’m surprised that some ‘Sioux Falls locals’ don’t teach those Calif. Hummer jockeys a lesson in ‘traffic manners’!

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-15 16:15:45

Neil, count me in in spirit at your HBB party at Redondo Cheesecake. I used to live near there and that is a great place to go. Miss the CCF. Wishing all there a great time. I would love to talk CA housing. But now geographically too far, and I personally moved from LA in 1996 up to the Bay area.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-15 17:34:45

Cool enough.

We’ll consider you there in spirit.

Neil

 
 
Comment by Brad
2007-09-15 17:32:46

superhero for the housing market:

http://www.ricflairfinance.com/

Comment by luvs_footie
2007-09-15 17:41:04

Wooooo…………..

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-15 17:59:28

Thanks Neil. Save me a piece of triple chocolate cheesecake and popcorn. I used to love their chocolate cheesecakes (and one piece lasts for about 3 days). Have a great party. Will look forward to reading about it.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-15 18:01:16

Ric Flaire from WWF to housing/mortgage? I have ignored WWF, so ignoring him in housing won’t be too hard.

 
Comment by bittterLArenter
2007-09-15 20:09:59

Neil:

I would love to go to the party! Please keep posting reminders so I don’t forget the darn thing but I wanna go!

 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-15 20:44:08

“‘You’ve got to take a chance to see what happens,’ Ramirez said.”

Isn’t that the same logic that put the “F” in “FB” in the first place!

 
Comment by oc-ed
2007-09-16 00:16:05

With apologies to Paul McCartney,

Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away.
Now it looks as though they’re here to stay.
I bought too much and now must pay.

Suddenly, I’ve got half the cash I used to see,
There’s a reset hanging over me.
Oh, yesterday came suddenly.

Why they lied to me I don’t know, they hide away.
I signed something wrong now I long for yesterday.

Yesterday, owning was an easy game to play.
Now I need a place to hide away.
Oh, I believe in yesterday.

Hey Ben, bring back the Haiku.

 
Comment by Tex
2008-08-27 21:43:45

It is crazy, Homes are still way over priced, Greed and fear.. and agents tell nothing but half truths,, it picking up. Poeple are making multiple offers, and paying more than the asking price..

If buyers trying to out bid each other and pay more than the listed price, they are FOOLS…and that’s the truth..

The American dream is not spend all of your check and half of your spouce to make a payment.. it is stupid..

Let it fall, do not believe the relators,,they tell half truths that is worse than a bold face lie

 
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