September 18, 2007

The Mania Has Clearly Subsided

A report from the Arizona Daily Star. “Selling a house at auction might sound like an act of desperation. But one casual investor thinks it’s the only way out of a tough spot in a slow market. Alison Torba put a two-bedroom house and a duplex near North Swan Road and East Pima Street on the market last spring. Neither has attracted an offer.”

“After price reductions, they were listed at $138,000 for the house and $265,000 for the duplex — which dozens of agents representing prospective buyers told her were reasonable prices. Facing increased payments for an adjustable-rate mortgage and a $100,000 home-equity line of credit for renovations, Torba said she can’t afford to wait for the market to pick up again.”

“‘It’s really scary,’ she said. ‘I thought the houses were going to sell immediately.’”

“The prospect of getting lowball bids and possibly losing money frightens her, she said, but she thinks it’s best to cut her losses. ‘Much of my equity has been eaten away with payments,’ she said.”

“The number of sales in August was down about 26 percent compared with the same month last year, according to statistics released Friday by the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.”

“Real estate executives acknowledged that some sellers, including Torba, might be finding themselves in a bind. An auction could be a ‘legitimate tool’ for dealing with a slow market, said Rick Hodges, CEO of the Tucson Association of Realtors.”

“But the final price might be tough to swallow, he added. ‘You have to be prepared to sell at any price, because you may have to sell it at any price,’ he said.”

The Arizona Republic. “More than a dozen ranchers and homeowners in the unincorporated northwest Valley are questioning why Surprise would allow developers to build thousands of homes there amid a general slump in the housing market.”

“Right now, about 40,000 homes…are proposed for the area, with the intention of annexing them into Surprise at a later date.”

“‘We have hundreds of homes in foreclosure. Why are we going to build 500 more?’ Wittmann resident Elizabeth Oldham asked at a recent planning and zoning meeting.”

“Oldham and others are critical of Surprise for not being able to fill homes that lie within city limits. Surprise’s vacancy rate hovers around 15 percent, compared with the county rate of 7 percent, said Jeff Romine, senior regional economist with the Maricopa Association of Governments.”

“Though vacancy rates in newer cities tend to be higher, he said Surprise still leads similarly new communities like Goodyear and Buckeye, which have vacancy rates of 8 and 10 percent, respectively.”

“Laws enacted by the Legislature get legal legs Wednesday. Starting this week, Arizona will have one of the nation’s tougher laws on mortgage fraud. The mortgage fraud law makes it a felony to issue mortgage loans under conditions that prove to be fraudulent. It targets the cash-back deals that were popular before the market turndown.”

“‘With what’s going on today, if the law had been in place a year ago, it might have led to a decrease in the schemes and scams that have undermined not only the state economy, but the national economy,’ said the bill’s sponsor, Sen. Jay Tibshraeny.”

The Gazette Journal from Nevada. “The winds driving Washoe County’s condominium market are swirling every which way. Year-over-year sales in the second quarter plummeted while sales from the first quarter to the second quarter rose. Ditto for the median sales prices.”

“Some planned downtown Reno high-rises have been put on hold. Other projects are moving ahead.”

“Add in the home financing gloom that enveloped Nevada and the nation in August, observers say, and there’s little doubt the region’s condo craze of two years ago has blown away.”

“‘The mania has clearly subsided,’ said Floyd Rowley, senior VP at Colliers International in Reno.”

“As Rowley sees it, all eyes are on the Palladio, the 14-story, 92-unit complex nearing completion downtown. Last Thursday, Dave Clark, the court-appointed receiver overseeing the Palladio’s progress, said he has about 28 units left to sell but acknowledged the past month has seen the market ‘come to a crawl.’”

“‘We originally targeted the end of ‘07 to sell out, but in all probability, it will take longer,’ he said.”

“Another major downtown project, The Montage with 380 units on the site of the former Golden Phoenix hotel-casino, is proceeding with completion set for next spring, said Fernando Leal, of L3 Development.”

“‘Sales are consistent but slower than we hoped for,’ he said.”

“Arterra, a 16-story, 185-unit complex slated for Sierra and Liberty streets, was halted before construction began. Sluggish sales have also forced Capstone to rent 108 of its condos at the Village at Idlewild Park complex as apartments.”

“Also downtown, the twin 449-unit Wingfield Towers planned for the south side of the Truckee River is on hold while its developers work, with a target date of October, to have financing in place as part of a bankruptcy protection filing.”

“‘The housing slowdown is driving the financing issue,’ spokesman Chris Barrett said.”

“Another factor crimping the condo market is the narrowing of the price gap between condos and stand-alone homes. That was once a big incentive to buy a condo when detached-home prices were soaring, said Pat Martinez of Prudential Nevada Realty.”

“But not now. Factor in condo association fees that can be hundreds of dollars a month, and ‘you can get a house for about the same price,’ he said. ‘That’s a big problem, especially in downtown.’”

“Tom Cargill, economist at the University of Nevada, Reno, agrees a condo’s attraction can wane when stand-alone home prices fall. ‘There’s less room to lower their prices. It’s a tough situation for a (condo) developer,’ he said. ‘Condos are still second-best to a home for a lot of people who want space between themselves and someone else.’”

“No one expects a condo collapse; indeed the market slowdown appears worse only because the housing market had been so hot, observers said. ‘The phones are ringing more,’ Martinez said. ‘There’s a lot more showings, but they’re not turning into closings right now.’”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “The slowdown in the Las Vegas housing market and challenging conditions in the mortgage industry have slimmed the ranks of Nevadans who hold mortgage licenses.”

“The state Mortgage Lending Division reported last week that the number of licensed agents has declined 23 percent in the past 12 months from 11,701 to 8,974.”

“Many companies have filed for bankruptcy or closed shop altogether. But the latest numbers don’t tell the whole story of what’s happening in the industry.”

“‘What’s happening in the housing industry has a ripple affect,’ said Chas Horsey, administrator of the Nevada Housing Division. ‘Appraisers, Realtors and mortgage lenders are feeling the impact.’”

“That’s especially true for mortgage agents who don’t get paid a salary but rely on commissions, Horsey said. ‘If there are not any new loans being made, they are not able to put food on the table,’ Horsey said.”

“The slowdown caused loan specialists such as Mark Sarrazin with US Mortgage in Henderson to allow his license to lapse earlier this month. Sarrazin said he got his license a year ago to work part-time with his friend’s firm.”

“But after one year, Sarrazin said he’s only done three loans and none recently. He said he doesn’t know if he will renew his license, but at this moment it doesn’t seem worth the time.”

“Steve Schauer, president of National Lenders Service, said the housing slowdown has prompted him to cut his staff of 30 six months ago to 15 today.”

“Many mortgage brokers are getting out of the business because they didn’t take the time to learn about various financing options, Schauer said. Many were part-timers who saw the opportunity of a hot market and are now learning how difficult it is and can’t keep pace with the changes in the industry.”

“‘At one point, loans were easy and anybody could do a mortgage,’ Schauer said.” “Schauer said he believes that’s good for the industry because it raises the competency and education levels needed to broker loans.”

“‘We no longer have waiters who are also mortgage people,’ Schauer said. ‘You could go into a restaurant and a waiter would give you a card. You no longer have that. They just do not have the knowledge of the profession to keep a client.’”




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76 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-09-18 12:15:24

‘Due to uncertainty in the lending environment, Bill Ferrall, the director of business relations from the Tahoe Lending Group would encourage those looking to buy to do anything but ‘hold the line.’

‘I would say if you’re going to make a move, be aggressive in your strategy right now. Don’t wait because things are changing too fast…I would say ‘get it done’ to a buyer, seller, or someone looking to get into a mortgage,’ Ferrall said.’

‘The reason? The Nevada State Assembly passed a bill that will go into effect on Oct. 1, AB 440, which is meant to curtail predatory lending practices. According to the bill, ‘It would violate predatory lending practices if the loan is made without using commercially reasonable means or mechanisms to determine the borrowers ability to repay the loan.’

‘Nobody knows what that means, it is very vague,’ Ferrall said.’

Comment by joesixpack
2007-09-18 12:37:38

In other words, if you can’t afford to buy a home, you better hurry up and do it now.

 
Comment by Reno Girl
2007-09-18 13:03:49

From the http://www.renorealtyblog.com:
“Major, shocking resets start this October, AB440 is a disaster for the self-employed, and the next 18-24 months are going to see an onslaught of foreclosures.

This may sound dramatic, but this is the message I was getting from totally normal, conservative people in the industry. They themselves seemed floored by the magnitude of what is to come. One of them even had a friend who owns a major employment agency in town, and pretty much everyone coming in these days is a lender, title person or real estate agent. (Darn, there goes my plan B!)

What is AB440? Pretty much, state income loans in Nevada will cease starting October 1 due to nebulous language in recent legislation… which can only further increase pricing velocity downward in our local markets as even the honest self-employed are now essentially screwed.”

Check out the blog, and especially Diane’s “you were right, I was wrong” post. Very refreshing!! Plus, as a bonus, you’ll get to read some great comments from Bantering Bear.

Comment by MassBubbleGirl
2007-09-18 13:59:05

Wow, what a 180 on the change of opinion… I especially like the link to her Not a Bubble but a Wave post from 1/06. What an idiot! Think positive, think positive, rah, rah, rah… but at least, she now admits it unlike idiot Lance at David’s blog…Lance keeps posting crap like, “okay, where’ the bubble idiots? I don’t see any popping…blah, blah. He is so annoying and I hope he loses everything in this slow, painful real estate crash…

 
Comment by Pete
2007-09-18 14:48:30

I don’t see why the legitimately self-employed can’t use tax returns and bank statements as documentation of income. That is, assuming they actually make what they claimed to on the mortgage app.

Comment by Reno Girl
2007-09-18 15:56:57

One poster said that due to the many tax writeoffs given to the self -employed that their returns didn’t acurately reflect their true income. But that still leaves bank statements.

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Comment by scdave
2007-09-18 13:04:31

‘Nobody knows what that means, it is very vague ??

Meaning the underwriting standards are going to get much tougher than even a normal standards given that it will now be a criminal act if you don’t cross the T’s and dot the I’s…Will have even a further dampening effect of the lower end market IMO…

 
 
Comment by qt
2007-09-18 12:34:54

Fed drops interest rate by 1/2

Comment by IUnknown
2007-09-18 13:06:40

How long until the dollar is worth less than $1 Canadian?

Comment by laonlooker
2007-09-18 13:12:24

So to a novice like me, what does this latest rate cut mean? Is it a move of desparation by the central bank? How does this affect the slow and steady housing decline? Will artifically prop up housing prices longer than expected? Will it work in the long run? So many questions. It seems to be having a large affect on the markets today, that’s or sure.

Comment by Matt
2007-09-18 13:31:20

The rate cut will end up in commodities, starting with oil and gasoline.

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Comment by Tom
2007-09-18 14:49:42

Its a bailout for Wall Street and the hedge funds. Get ready for $4 and $5 a gallon gasoline. Yeah, this helps the economy… NOT! It helps bailout Wall Street.

 
Comment by observer
2007-09-18 14:53:32

We’re going PAST your piddly “dollar”…WAY past.

 
 
 
Comment by simi.uber.alles
2007-09-18 13:23:18

As of this afternoon, US $1 = CA $1.0131

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USDCAD=X

In response to your question, my guess is “tomorrow.”

Comment by RJT
2007-09-18 13:27:48

i’d give it a couple weeks, but it is inevitagle (unless of course the Bank of Canada panics and decides to cut rates also, causing a race to see who can devalue their currency fastest)

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Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-18 20:44:38

Bank of Canada cuts rates…it’s in the hat (IMHO). Good catch.

Leigh

 
 
 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-09-18 13:34:14

Son of a b*tch!!

Wow… I just feel like cursing for about 10 minutes, but, since I truly appreciate everything Ben does (and NO NOT BERNAKE THAT F-ING weasel) and will restrain myself.

Now that this has happened, how much of an effect do you think we see in the housing market? Again, without the jumbos (at affordable rates) I just don’t see the sustainability of the home prices; but honestly, this totally f’s up my plans.

I am going to go buy something tonight.. My dollars will never be worth more then they are right now. I wonder if the stores are changing the prices right now…. Better hurry! :)

Comment by sweeny texas
2007-09-18 14:52:40

I feel your pain. But don’t worry, we’ll still have our housing market implosion. Rate cuts alone won’t save Wall Street from losing billions on this debacle. All it will do is put a band-aid on the decapitated corpse. And our impending recession will affect the rest of the world, too, so I don’t see a collapse in the dollar, either.

But we DO need to worry about the upcoming federal bailout…

Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-18 21:03:37

Band-aide. Nothing to stop the bleeding like a band-aide.

We need a darn tourniquet.

There is no justice for the just. Leigh.

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Comment by NoVAMtgBkr
2007-09-18 12:41:45

Hey waiter! Can you tell me what sides come with that 5/1 ARM?

Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-18 12:56:50

Tooooo funny…shiny gold star…LOL.

 
 
Comment by AKron
2007-09-18 12:45:51

I apologize if someone has already posted this article- it is a good one by Mike Whitney (I know that some of you don’t care much for counterpunch in general, but I find Mike’s writing to be humorous and interesting):

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney09182007.html

“U.S. Banks Brace for Storm Surge as Dollar and Credit System Reel”

 
Comment by memphis
2007-09-18 12:48:36

Right. Buy now, or be forever priced out of your ability to screw yourself QUITE this completely.

Facetiousness aside, I’m reading anecdotal stuff about buyers who would have been well qualified by the old standards in a particular price range, now being denied because lenders are skittish in formerly ‘hot’ regions. I wonder if the spigots will be firmly shut well before consumer confidence catches up with the news, and if the Fed’s move today is even relevant in that light. Is it possible that we are going to have enough of a breakdown that Joe high-average 100K/yr household with a solid credit score and 20% down still won’t be able to qualify for in much of the country, even if it’s an REO pushed back to ‘02 prices, or maybe only if he’s willing to pay an APR well above where the Fed is trying to contain it?

Comment by VT_Dan
2007-09-18 13:51:02

What do you expect will happen to investment loans on second properties with 20% down in areas where owning only costs 15%-20% more than renting? I live near Virginia Tech with a contract(selling) set to close on October 23… I hope the financing goes through!

Comment by AnonyRuss
2007-09-18 15:34:25

A friend up mine a few hours up 1-81 from you was under contract with a pre-approved buyer for a modest country house. About two weeks ago, the lender pulled out. The would-be buyer really wanted the place, and obtained another loan approval with worse terms.

Another appraisal was done, and even that appraisal is being reviewed. I believe that the down payment is 10%. I do not know the potential buyer’s credit score, but it is definitely borderline.

 
 
 
Comment by memphis
2007-09-18 12:50:46

Hit send too soon - “still won’t be able to qualify for A LOAN.” Was also going mention “under the old debt/income ratio qualifying standards.”

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-09-18 12:59:28

Lawmakers also passed an amendment to the bill offered by Frank that would raise the agency’s loan limit from its current $417,000 to as much as $729,750.

 
Comment by bizarroworld
2007-09-18 13:06:40

Appearently the worst is over even though the “Index of Homebuilder Sentiment Falls for 7th-Straight Month to Tie Record Low.”
http://tinyurl.com/2mg8qk

Here’s a look at how shares of some major homebuilders fared in afternoon trading Tuesday .
D.R. Horton Inc. rose 63 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $15.15.
Pulte Homes Inc. rose 60 cent, or 3.7 percent, to $16.69
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. jumped $1.68, or 14.9 percent, to $13.02
Lennar Corp. rose 29 cents to $26
Centex Corp. rose 59 cents, or 2 percent, to $28.43
Toll Brothers Inc. rose 62 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $28.46

All is well, all is well (sarcasm off)

Comment by Tom
2007-09-18 13:09:14

People still don’t want to lend. Sounds like a good opportunity to short here in the near term.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-18 13:07:38

Well, Arizona Slim just had to jump on this part of the original post:

A report from the Arizona Daily Star. “Selling a house at auction might sound like an act of desperation. But one casual investor thinks it’s the only way out of a tough spot in a slow market. Alison Torba put a two-bedroom house and a duplex near North Swan Road and East Pima Street on the market last spring. Neither has attracted an offer.”

“After price reductions, they were listed at $138,000 for the house and $265,000 for the duplex — which dozens of agents representing prospective buyers told her were reasonable prices. Facing increased payments for an adjustable-rate mortgage and a $100,000 home-equity line of credit for renovations, Torba said she can’t afford to wait for the market to pick up again.”

“‘It’s really scary,’ she said. ‘I thought the houses were going to sell immediately.’”

“The prospect of getting lowball bids and possibly losing money frightens her, she said, but she thinks it’s best to cut her losses. ‘Much of my equity has been eaten away with payments,’ she said.”

Hate to break the news to y’all, but the Pima and Swan area is right in the heart of Tucson’s Dumpy Midtown District.

If rundown houses and apartment complexes are your thing, then you’d be in heaven. But come on, more than a quarter of a million dollars for a duplex? I want a puff of what this gal has been smoking.

Comment by are they crazy
2007-09-18 13:16:15

Slim: I suspect alot of us would like to toke what she’s smoking today. I’m not sure what’s more frustrating - the FED, the CNBC clowns (I can only imagine Cramer’s show today) or the stupid sheeple that will go on a spending spree thinking all is well now.

 
Comment by sfbayqt
2007-09-18 13:37:28

Careful now. What she’s smokin’ is probably laced with something. You’ll wake up tomorrow the proud owner of 4 homes and 2 condo-tels. :lol:

BayQT~

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-09-18 13:46:52

Yikes. It might even get me high -n- stupid enough to buy one of these:

http://www.sanctuaryshadows.com/

Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-18 20:53:02

Townhomes are under construction & expected to be completed by
September 1, 2007.
Pricing will be set at that time.

Ya just can’t make this up! Give me an aspirin…please!

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Comment by Hondje
2007-09-18 13:19:36

Article from today’s Houston Business Journal on commercial real estate (notice the *25% Y/Y decrease* in the absorption rate):

Office space net absorption nationwide continued to decelerate, Delta Associates said, to 36.2 million square feet absorbed during the first half of 2007, from 47.8 million square feet for the same period in 2006.

Houston had a net absorption of 2.2 million square feet for the first half of 2007, compared with a robust 7 million square feet for all of 2006.

Houston had 5 million square feet of office space under construction at mid-year 2007, of which 24 percent is pre-leased.

 
Comment by Hondje
2007-09-18 13:23:13

I’ll try posting this again from today’s Houston Business Journal:

Office space net absorption nationwide continued to decelerate, Delta Associates said, to 36.2 million square feet absorbed during the first half of 2007, from 47.8 million square feet for the same period in 2006.

Houston had a net absorption of 2.2 million square feet for the first half of 2007, compared with a robust 7 million square feet for all of 2006.

Houston had 5 million square feet of office space under construction at mid-year 2007, of which 24 percent is pre-leased.

 
Comment by KiwiPeasant
2007-09-18 13:24:46

It’s 8.10 am in Wellington, New Zealand, and I’m listening to a radio interview on a high-rating national station about Greenspan, Bernanke, the Fed IR cut, and the implications of all this. This is truly global. 1929, bank collapses and the D word have been mentioned. Apparently the general public have not yet clued in. A one-room-wide 19th century workers cottage up on the corner has just gone on the market with an asking price of $250,000. The house in question was rented by a friend of mine a couple of years ago, and I know it well. There’s a hole in the back of the fireplace going through to one of the bedrooms, the rooms are tiny, the woodwork is riddled with borer, there’s no hot tap in the kitchen, and you have to boil one of those wall-mounted things, it’s completely uninsulated, the windows are warped shut, and the floors are all slopey because the pilings are rotted. It’s no use even as a teardown, because it’s a relic of a previous building boom, where they really crammed them in, and the lot isn’t much bigger than the house. I’ll be keeping a close eye on this one.

Comment by Frank Giovinazzi
2007-09-18 13:43:30

In other words, it’s a historic structure that will only go up in value.

 
Comment by death_spiral
2007-09-18 14:14:55

after the 1/2 point IR cut i used the F word…boy, are we in the US hosed now…Bernanke has no balls

Comment by spike66
2007-09-18 14:44:03

There may be a run on wheelbarrows soon–in order to get your pile of worthless dollars down to the general store.

Comment by Cinch
2007-09-18 15:10:11

I think stagflation is at hand. Inflation accompanying unemployment and lack of consumer spending.

Inflation e.g. oil price
unemployment - think construction industry
lack of consumer spending i.e. the consumer is tapped out!

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Comment by watcher
2007-09-18 13:39:15

Countrywide wants an 850k conforming loan limit. Why not a million?

16:05 CFC Countrywide CEO says conforming loan limit should be raised to $850,000, or linked to home prices in specific geographies - Reuters (19.88 +0.61) -Update-

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2007-09-18 13:44:35

Heck, why have limits at all? Why worry about being able to pay back loans?

Free houses for everyone! And a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread.

 
Comment by Matt
2007-09-18 13:48:21

Will that be the 100 year fixed rate? Low monthly payments!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-18 13:56:20

Would $850,000 be the new upper limit on what constitutes affordable housing? Because after all, the GSE mission is to make housing affordable, right?

Comment by observer
2007-09-18 14:57:54

Housing is “not going up”, it is the piddley American Peso that is going through the floor. Priced in OTHER currencies, oil is stable, for example.

Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-18 15:02:43

Point taken. Good time to diversify into other currencies, as AG suggested in his 60 Minutes interview Sunday night…

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Comment by michael
2007-09-18 15:13:13

anyone have any insights on the Merck Hard Currency Fund? the one that is endorsed on Euro Pacifics website.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 14:23:27

Do you have a link to this?

Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-18 15:01:51

http://tinyurl.com/2ufyc2

It expects industry loan volumes to fall 25 percent in 2008, and Mozilo said Countrywide expects “corresponding material declines in our own volumes.”

Mozilo called on policymakers to boost the cap on loans that GSEs can buy to $850,000 from $417,000. Such “conforming” loans are considered safer to own but less profitable to make.

“Loan limits should either be based on a formula relating to the median home price in a particular area of the country, or they should be broadly raised to $850,000 across the board,” Mozilo said.

Uneffing believable.

Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 15:43:09

““Loan limits should either be based on a formula relating to the median home price in a particular area of the country, or they should be broadly raised to $850,000 across the board,” Mozilo said.”

Why not have the limits based on the median income for a state/region?

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Comment by Crash Random
2007-09-18 13:51:08

casual investor

No, a casual investor is someone who buys a hundred shares of stock. How do you “casually” buy a couple of houses?

who has essentially financed a musical career through small-time property investment

Also, a “career” (as opposed to a “hobby”) is usually something that finances the rest of your life, or at least pays for itself, not something that has to be financed. Unless I missed something and you can’t pass the Songwriter Bar Exam without spending years and hundreds of thousands of dollars in Songwriter Medical School.

 
Comment by Dave
2007-09-18 13:58:28

The suckers and idiots are officially those who are financially responsible citizens.

Comment by Professor Bear
2007-09-18 14:15:55

Wow! I need a drink. How did the House manage to characterize $700,000+ as “affordable?” And I wonder how midwestern folks feel about guaranteeing low- to middle-income coastal families’ $700,000+ mortgage commitments?

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-09-18 15:05:31

Numb.

Comment by shel
2007-09-18 15:18:04

exactly! I am so pissed off right now, about the house legislation, and I feel like there’s nobody to tell about it in congress because there’s no way they would not vote to save the american dream, buying too much and not worrying about it, flipping and scheming and just being idiotic…argh.

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Comment by cashedin05
2007-09-18 22:06:53

We just got Punked!

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2007-09-18 14:00:48

I am so p-o-ed today!

Bernanke and the Fed turns the dollar into toilet paper with a .5% rate cut.

The House of Reps votes to open the U.S. treasury to people that hold MBS and COD backed by mortgages made to FBs through FHA reform.

 
Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 14:13:38

The Mania has Clearly Subsided…

..but the stupidity clearly has not. 50 basis point cut and already there is speak of more cuts to come. They have taken the needle out of their veins and inserted a permanent IV.

Comment by death_spiral
2007-09-18 14:17:41

US dollar is doomed…foreigners will be dumping like a greasy mexican dinner

 
 
Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-18 14:21:14

Whew, what a day if one more silly f*ck calls me and asks can they refinance now or what I think the rates will be now I’m going to… whatever I give up. Arms for the masses…

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2007-09-18 14:23:10

It targets the cash-back deals that were popular before the market turndown.”

“‘With what’s going on today, if the law had been in place a year ago, it might have led to a decrease in the schemes and scams that have undermined not only the state economy, but the national economy,’ said the bill’s sponsor, Sen. Jay Tibshraeny.”

Between this and their illegal alien stance, I’m beginning to warm up to Arizona.

Comment by Robert
2007-09-18 14:41:40

Maria Bartelomo commented on the price of two martinis in Paris. $75.00 USD. Coming to your local watering hole soon. NYC,SF etc

Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 14:54:34

Here in Boston, I went out with a buddy for a few beers, some fried calamari (which is $%#* bait, now that I think about it), a quesadilla..the bill came to something like $75..which is ridiculous, considering we were just snacking. I make a decent buck, as does he. I can’t imagine what it is like for people making less than six figures or so.

Martinis here are outrageous too. Just more proof of how much Madison Ave influences the sheeple. I’m fortunate that I am a beer/whiskey guy. I lile enjoying my nights out, but I’m not about to pay more than $5 or so per drink. I know that may sound cheap, but we all have our limits. These places are making a killing on the booze. I know many places outside of the city, where a beer is still $3. I hate getting robbed.

Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-18 21:25:38

I don’t drink often, but here in WI, .75c for happy hour (4-6pm).

Dang…maybe (as others suggested), alcohol might be a good investment. Dang, if I could only take advantage of this harbinger. Sigh.

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Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 14:42:40

OT..

If at some point I were to be buying a $600K home, putting $200K down and taking a conforming 30yr loan of $400k before the conforming limit goes up, but I wait until after it goes up to $500K plus, would I be “smarter” to only put $100K down and borrow $500k and just leave the other $100k invested or in reserves? I know my investment return would need to beat the mortgage rate in order for this to work (tax considerations aside). Having the extra $100k in reserves might be a good hedge against job loss, etc. NO?

Also, if home prices dropped by a huge amount, the cash would be available to maybe scoop up a foreclosure…

Thoughts?

Comment by Nick
2007-09-18 15:08:20

Depends. Will you have cash reserves left over if you put $200K down? Will you spend the extra $100K on ephemeral junk, or save/invest it? Increased leverage is good when prices are rising, but not so good when falling. Are prices going to rise, fall or stay flat in your area (trick question)? How long do you plan to stay in the house? Will your income support the higher payments of the $500K loan for as long as you plan to own the house?

Considering that house prices are most likely going to continue falling in real terms for several years, I assume this is either an academic question or you have a solid lifestyle reason to buy soon and expect to stay in the house long term.

Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 15:48:17

The $100K in reserves would be over and above an already large reserve. The $100k would not be squandered. It either be in cash, tbills or index funds/etfs. Prices will never fall in my area, because it’s different here (just kidding). I will be staying in the house for at least 10 years. My income would support the higher pmt, but with less wiggle room each month.

The question is somewhat academic, but I do hope to find the right property, at the right price, sooner than later…(maybe?)

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-09-18 14:51:14

What did you guys do to the market????? Wow! All my put bids were hit! That’s what I get for taking a day off!

Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 14:55:28

you shouldn’t have blinked :)

Comment by txchick57
2007-09-18 15:23:56

I’m in the ‘08 series as I think you’ll really see the hammer come down after the holidays.

Well, 2 for 2 this year at grabbing S&P bottoms, in March and August. Too bad I never can hold onto them. I just don’t believe.

Comment by Pen
2007-09-18 15:50:11

B-b-b-b-b-b 2008 is so far way…

The last time I grabbed a bottom, I got slapped..

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Little Al
2007-09-18 14:51:25

Spent three days in Reno last Spring doing a little fishing in the Tahoe area. Basically staying there for the cheap hotel rooms. The amount of building there is incredible. There are mind-numbing tracts that look like horrid infestations of fungi stretching a good 10 miles up I-80 West. And they’re having trouble selling their highrise condos in downtown. Unbelieveable.

 
Comment by FED Up
2007-09-18 15:11:02

That dill hole Cramer is completely all excited about the rate cut. He’s just gloating and saying the bears got it really, really wrong. I think he should be pegged as one of the people that exacerbated the impending recession/crash. All he has done, has begged for a rate cut.

In his opening self serving talk, he said Bill Poole almost ruined the economy. Also, he said the Fed has correctly realized that inflation is not a concern. Well Cramer, when you sling crap like that, you better be ready to take what comes back at you.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2007-09-18 15:29:37

test

 
Comment by novasold
2007-09-18 16:13:09

I heard Kudlow say the same thing, that lower dollar does not equal inflation.

Is that possible.

 
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