There’s Still Too Much Inventory
Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. Bloomberg, “Builders in the U.S. began work on the fewest homes in 12 years in August. Building permits dropped 5.9 percent to a 1.307 million pace, also the lowest since 1995. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder sentiment dropped to 20, matching the January 1991 reading as the weakest ever, the Washington-based association said yesterday.”
“The housing market is seeing ‘more rapid descent,’ Ara Hovnanian, CEO of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., said yesterday at a conference.”
From Builder Online. “Officials from Hovnanian Enterprises, Beazer Homes, The Ryland Group, Standard Pacific, TOUSA, Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton, and MDC Holdings sang from the same song book about market conditions, which took a turn for the worse in August - ‘the cruelest month,’ quipped Boyce Thompson, editorial director at Hanley Wood, BUILDER’s parent company, which co-sponsored the Credit Suisse’s Homebuilders Conference.”
“Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, who was the conference’s luncheon speaker, delivered a cold slap in the face to anyone who thinks that buyer demand is about to revive any time soon.”
“Zandi says that a combination of negative forces, too much unsold inventory (about 950,000 new and existing units, by his calculations), the prospect that between $400 billion and $500 billion worth of mortgages will default this year and next, and the steady 25,000- to 30,000-per-month job losses in housing-related companies - suggest that recovery is a long way off.”
“Some builders share this pessimism; ‘Things are not very good in the housing industry,’ said TOUSA’s chief Antonio Mon, in classic understatement. And the mortgage mess continues to instigate cancellations, which are still in the 30 to 33 percent range for the conference speakers.”
“All of the builders have made significant - and in some cases massive - reductions in their land assets, either by selling lots they own or abandoning land-options they control. They are also extracting price concessions from product suppliers and, in several cases, altering their house plans to use less building material.”
“Toll Brothers’ CEO Bob Toll said he’s not disposed yet to sell land in favorable markets his company has owned or controlled for years. ‘We have land in Florida that I’m not going to give away, at least not as long as we’re positive [in earnings],’ he said.”
“That being said, through October Toll had reduced its land position by 31 percent this year.”
The Associated Press. “The chief financial officer of homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. said Tuesday the homebuilder was focused on driving down costs and reducing debt to contend with continued pricing pressures.”
“‘It is certainly a challenging market,’ said CFO Bill Wheat in a presentation at a conference. Wheat and Treasurer Stacey Dwyer said one challenge faced by the homebuilder is to absorb the higher levels of home supply.”
“‘There’s still too much inventory,’ Wheat said.”
From MarketWatch. “Residential builders are launching promotional price reductions and other incentives in a bid to attract anxious homebuyers and move standing inventory off their books.”
“‘Market conditions have changed,’ said Hovnanian during from a home-builder conference. ‘The market has been fraught with concessions and incentives.’”
“Also, potential buyers hear negative commentary on the housing market in the media and the problems shaking the mortgage market, he said.”
“‘It’s something we have to accept. It’s part of the business today,’ said Beazer Homes USA CEO Ian McCarthy, who added that his company has been running promotions since June 2006 and is planning more. ‘The market needs to be addressed in different ways today.’”
“‘People just don’t turn up anymore,’ McCarthy said.”
“‘People will mistrust their prices,’ said real estate expert Danielle Babb. She questioned if big sales events like Hovnanian’s trade short-term gains for long-term pain.”
“Also, buyers may end up simply waiting to see if another ‘Deal of the Century’ comes along. ‘Buyers are seeing how desperate builders are, so they figure there might be more deals,’ Babb said.”
From Reuters. “The Federal Reserve’s rate cut sent U.S. home builder shares soaring, but one influential home builder said the half-percentage point cut may be sending the wrong message.”
“‘I would have done a quarter instead of a half because it signals we’re in deep doodoo,’ said Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers Inc.”
“The supply glut has been exacerbated by a crisis in the mortgage markets that started with defaults by the riskiest borrowers. ‘Does anyone want to call this the bottom because of the Fed cut?’ he asked, while speaking at the Homebuilder Conference. ‘I don’t think you can call it yet.’”
“Central banks may not have the tools to restore stability to credit markets amid the ‘Panic of ‘07,’ and instead should demand greater transparency from financial companies, Moody’s Investors Service said today.”
“‘The new financial paradigm has brought with it some problems, which the world’s financial policy technicians have not yet solved,’ Moody’s said in a report by Vice Chairman Christopher Mahoney and Senior VP Pierre Cailleteau. ‘Each credit crisis teaches new lessons, often resulting in corrective reforms. The current `Panic of ‘07′ will as well.’”
“Moody’s itself, as well as Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, were criticized by investors, lawmakers and regulators for being too slow to respond to the rising defaults. Policy makers…have pointed to possible conflicts of interest between the ratings companies and the banks that pay their fees.”
“Moody’s, S&P and Fitch waited until April to downgrade some subprime securities, after their value had fallen by as much as 80 cents on the dollar.”
“Investors have an ‘over-reliance on ratings for pricing,’ Mahoney said. Some ‘have no idea what they have and they have no idea how to price it.’”
“‘What turned an overdue risk reappraisal into a financial panic is the combination of untested financial innovation, price- sensitive accounting rules, leverage and opacity,’ Mahoney and Cailleteau said. ‘This cocktail has proved explosive.’”
“For those on the brink of foreclosure…and for those who also are subprime mortgage borrowers, the Fed move is of little consequence.”
“‘It will help those who need it the least,’ said Richard Hastings, an analyst at Bernard Sands LLC. ‘But for those who need the most help, this does nothing for them. The Fed cannot help them at all.’”
The Atlanta Journal Constitution. “Lost in the furious debate over how hard the Federal Reserve should work to head off a downturn lurks a nagging and unpleasant thought: Maybe the economy needs a recession.”
“Not too many experts will come right out and say so — most say it does not — but a minority chorus has long argued that the Fed should reverse the easy policy that successively fueled a dot-com boom, a consumer spree and an unprecedented surge in the housing market.”
“‘We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences,’ said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital. ‘We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid.’”
“The Fed cut…will only delay the inevitable, ‘It will be terribly painful, but it’s therapeutic. It’s like a drug addict going through withdrawal from heroin. It is awful, but it’s what will get us better,’ Schiff argued.”
The LA Times. “Angelo Mozilo, CEO of beleaguered Countrywide Financial Corp., said Tuesday that the lender was making progress in adjusting to the harsh new realities of the home mortgage market.”
“‘With pain comes opportunity,’ Mozilo said at an investment conference.”
“Mozilo said flatly that ‘we are out of the sub-prime business.’ In subsequent remarks, he appeared to qualify that comment by saying Countrywide would continue to make a limited number of sub-prime loans that could be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”
“Mozilo criticized media coverage of the mortgage meltdown several times Tuesday, saying reporters incorrectly blamed ‘aggressive lending and exotic reset products’ for rising foreclosures.”
“During the boom, many lenders, including Countrywide, gave borrowers loans without requiring them to document their income. It was widely assumed that many of the borrowers didn’t document their incomes because they were lying.”
“Though Mozilo said stated-income loans were indeed much more likely to go into default, the reason the owners gave for their distressed status was the same as for those with fully documented loans.”
The Wall Street Journal. “Subprime-lending woes will have an impact on General Electric Co.’s third-quarter results, in the latest sign that earnings in the current quarter will be pinched by housing-market weakness.”
“The conglomerate said it would take a hit of $300 million to $400 million related to its planned exit from the subprime market. It will mark the third time in as many quarters that GE’s results will be affected by subprime woes.”
From CNN Money. “If the banking industry, with its load of worries caused by the subprime meltdown, has another month like it did in August, it will be in record territory for job losses.”
“Last month, banks with ties to the subprime mortgage industry laid off more than 26,000 employees, the most of any month since global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas began keeping such records in 1993.”
“Scott Stern, CEO of LendersOne Mortgage Cooperative, said he believes the worst may be yet to come, but that the industry will survive and return to profitability.”
“In fact, Stern said, getting some of the people out of the industry who came in during the boom years won’t be a bad thing. There simply are more people now than there is business, and once that equation evens out things will get better, he said.”
“‘The mortgage industry grew and grew because we created buyers who traditionally wouldn’t have qualified,’ Stern said. ‘All those people that are leaving the industry, it’s probably necessary because now there will be an equivalent number of industry people compared to transactions. There will be a lot less transactions, a lot less people, but a better market.’”
IMO, there will continue to be too much inventory as long as house prices are artificially high. That’s how markets work.
So simple, yet so difficult a concept for so many to grasp.
Also want to keep in mind Professor Bear’s comment a month or so ago about how most of us folks who are at that stage in their life where one normally considers buying a (starter) home are delaying their purchase until they feel more confident that they won’t be catching a falling knife.
I mean, with the exception of Las Vegas, AZ and S. Florida, most of the metro areas that account for the bulk of the overpriced housing stock are areas where you do find people who like to stay well-informed on current events/economic developments, and those folks know that there we are in uncharted waters here in terms of affordability and realize that housing prices should decline 10% to 15% at a minimum over the next 2 years….and even more if we are entering in to a recession.
Oh and one more thing, just to be clear, we might be waiting this out, but we are NOT waiting on the sidelines.
…and realize that housing prices should decline 10% to 15% at a minimum over the next 2 years….and even more if we are entering in to a recession.
This is what has stopped me cold. I’m tired of being a gypsy and would like to settle down and live in a place where I can garden and where a dog and a cat are welcome. But I know that sellers are not currently in the frame of mind to accept offers 10% below what they are asking.
The rental of my dreams did just come on the market, though. Even that is ten percent overpriced! You know I have to dicker…
The new real estate mantra:
“Don’t buy now or you’ll be overpriced forever.”
I’ve come to believe that those in charge will not be content until folks like you and I will NOT be able to realize our simple dreams of a nice little house with our own garden, trees, etc. They won’t stop until everyone is poor or in debt and we’re all living atop each other in “planned communities” that are nothing but HOA run h*llholes… or in slums.
I think you give people way too much credit. In my opinion, almost no one is well-informed on current events and economic developments.
I agree. I believe that most people with a job and a family will “automatically” buy a home, provided a lender is willing to hand them the money. With an FHA guarantee and a big increase in the conforming lending limit, the subprime mortgage sump pump could be reprimed to give lots more households the means to buy homes they cannot afford, and to also transfer the risk of foreclosure from the lender to the taxpayer.
Oh please stop with this elitist coastal bulls**t. 90% of people are clueless in LA. 92% are clueless in Las Vegas.
They are just as clueless in the Bay Area and on the San Mateo coast where I live. They are in denial, still. Homes some people bought in the last couple of years have yet to appreciate at all but these homeowners are sure it’s different here and a better market is just around the corner.
Ben, in this comment response below that you made to Anthony yesterday, you hit upon something that gets pushed to the wayside and that is the unseen element or aspect of: Time
Yes. Economics of wages & home prices…like the ocean… eventually find: Sea level
But it is the time… leading up to the ridiculous high prices and the time…falling back down to focus in relation to wage earnings that a good portion of one’s life is spent having to live within the less stable situation of having to rent…I bought (in 1981) a $26,000 house @ 15.5% interest…I would not buy ( in the last 6 years) an equivalent house @ $350,000 @ 6%… that time span: 26 years! I know that we are all living longer, but for what?…so we can endure the pain of a mortgage tied to our conscience every month. Ah, but you see…I did not want to buy a house as an “investment” …oh no, silly me…I sought to purchase something to make into a “Home”…ah, but alas, I’m a slow learner and struggle onward to make the conscience effort to live: simply
Comment by Ben Jones
2007-09-18 20:49:50
“…The real questions; are houses unaffordable? Do wages justify the costs? Economic forces will put prices where they should be.”
a simple example of supply and demad
“‘There’s still too much inventory,’ Wheat said.”
With a very simple solution — lower the sale price to the market clearing level, and voila, the inventory will magically disappear.
Recently, my wife and I were watching a new episode of “Buy Me”, a show that chronicles the trails and tribulations of selling a house. This particular episode featured a couple who had a huge house in Texas (if I remember right), but they could no longer justify the monthly payments, as it was eating into their quality of life (they were “living for the house”). They hired a Realtor to sell their house; this Realtor had recently relocated from Los Angeles, and upon seeing all of the big beautiful houses in the neighborhood at incredibly low prices (at least according to Los Angeles standards), she made it her personal crusade to raise the comp prices in the whole “undervalued” neighborhood, starting with this couple’s house.
Long story short, she filled this couple’s head with visions of dancing sugar plums, to the point that when the Realtor had realized her mistake, and that PRICE DOES MATTER, the couple we unwilling to drop their price, for fear of “just giving the house away”. Also, the couple had been out shopping for a house to “downsize” to, and had been severely disappointed in what they could get for a lower monthly payment…after all, they were used to their big, beautiful house, they just didn’t like having to pay most of their income to keep it.
In the end, 6 or 9 months later, they fired the Realtor, got a new one, listed at a “competitive” price, and sold a month or so later at slightly bellow asking price.
There are still plenty of people out there that don’t understand basic economics…both Realtors and people buying and selling houses.
In my neighborhood, I’m noticing something that, for lack of catchier expression, I’ll call Realistic Pricing.
First house was purchased in January 2005 for $170k. Seller is a University of Arizona postdoc who’s accepted a tenure-track position in another state. Her house is now listed at $182k.
Second house was purchased during the summer of 2005 for $160k. It’s now back on the market at $182,500.
Not much of a profit for either seller, IMHO. But we’ve come a long way from the days of Mr. Doom and Mrs. Gloom. Remember them? They were the neighbors who bought on the next street down during the spring of 2004. Paid $135k.
Then they decided to buy another house in a neighborhood with a greater coolness factor. They put their existing house back on the market at $240k in September ‘06.
In May ‘07, an “investor” bought the property for $220. He promptly split the lot and began construction of a cheap-o house in back of the one that Mr. Doom and Mrs. Gloom lived in.
In June, a property management company’s “For Rent” sign sprouted in the front, right next to the outhouse that the cheap-o house’s workers were using. (Talk about curb appeal!)
I went by this property yesterday evening. The construction was completed several weeks ago, but the whole kit and kaboodle is still for rent. Turns out that lot-splits aren’t the tenant-magnet that our local “investors” thought they’d be.
Slim — don’t mean any disrespect, but if the seller bought in January 2005, she bought at almost the height of the bubble. I think that trying to recover that much money is not addressing the reality of a declining market. To me, if people can recover what a property would have sold for in 2003, they’re doing well because there is farther for prices to drop. While Bernanke’s cut-and-run is super-disappointing, it only spreads out in time what will happen anyway. It is like five ten-car pileups instead of one fifty-car pileup. There will be fifty wrecked cars either way.
IMO, there will continue to be too much inventory as long as house prices are artificially high. That’s how markets work.
You are exactly right and there will be significant pain to come over the next year or so. I looked at a new 2,261 sq ft house over the weekend in Tampa listed by the builder at $377,000. That amounts to a little more than $166 a sq. ft. That is a price that is beyond what this market can bear. It has been on the market more than a year.
I think there is too much inventory on the market, but I don’t see the problem correcting totally. I think they have massively overbuilt and there’s not even enough people to buy all the excess. Even if prices drop, I still see tons of houses sitting unsold.
If a house can be rented out for at least 50% more than the total of taxes, insurance, HOA, and maintenance, someone will buy it. For cash. It’s just a matter of pricing.
“Toll Brothers’ CEO Bob Toll said he’s not disposed yet to sell land in favorable markets his company has owned or controlled for years. ‘We have land in Florida that I’m not going to give away, at least not as long as we’re positive [in earnings],’ he said.”
Oh, man, Toll thinks Florida is a favorable market? LMAO, that’s rich! He sounds like an FB: “I’m not giving it away”.
And this:
“‘I would have done a quarter instead of a half because it signals we’re in deep doodoo,’ said Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers Inc.”
LMAO! If I were Bernanke, I’d be pulling out my hair reading that and thinking “Why, that ungrateful wretch!”
Wonder if that’s why retch rhymes with wretch.
But in a way, I’m glad Toll made that statement. Pandering never works, not even for the FED. Those who are pandered to are never satisfied and hold the panderers in contempt, as witness our “undocumented workers”
Doesn’t work very well with either children or aggressor nations, either…
Someone on CNBC this morning said that Mr. Toll was quoted in WSJ(haven’t seen the atricle) as refering to BB(Bendover Ben) Bernanke as “His Boy”…….
They don’t rhyme Chip, they’re homophones.
CVG — looked it up — you are correct, of course. I learn something every day — thanks.
Not sure I’m going to throw that one out in a bar, though.
homophones! homophones!
where the crews come cruising on the plane!
homophones! homophones!
i need my kneaded biscuits plain!
A CEO…deep do do…LOL
Dippity-Do.
LMAO! If I were Bernanke, I’d be pulling out my hair reading that and thinking “Why, that ungrateful wretch!”
Bernanke does not have that much hair left to pull out unless it is his beard.
Toll had been predicting a bottom since July/Aug 2005. He admitted during conference calls in 2005 that the guidance was back-end loaded; i.e., that things would have to improve dramatically at the end of 2005 for TOL to make guidance. Give him credit, though — he sold his own shares in the summer of 2005, even before the Tan Man.
“He admitted during conference calls in 2005″
Didn’t Ivy Zelman once ask him during a conference call “what Kool-Aide are you drinking”?
Yes I think it was him she asked that of.
It was a turning point in the media I think. It got pages and pages of comments here including proposals of marriage from most of the men on this blog (even the ones already married
If Ivy said that, she truly is my heroine.
And another one bites the dust.
Speaking of the Tan Man, anyone read his interview with Maria in Business Week? Hysterical.
“We have land in Florida that I’m not going to give away, at least not as long as we’re positive [in earnings]”
Kind of reminds me of the “calamity” statement.
I wonder if he thinks that a combination of a very cold winter and much-higher oil prices for US Dollar-paying users will drive more people to Florida, more or less regardless of prices.
If I knew how to do it (and if it’s possible to do), I’d make a business out of efficiently re-zoning Yankee houses so that only the occupied areas receive comfy-level heat in the winter and that those areas have a better temperature barrier against the rest of the McFridge.
“Goin’ outside, are ya, Herbert?”
“Ayup, sorta’ - goin’ to the back bedrooms.”
Why not do the same in the south with the air conditioning. Everyone needs utilities no matter where they live, and I’d bet the bills are the same for heat as air.
Ghost — heating bills in Florida tend to be much lower than a/c bills, at least here in Central Florida (and farther south). A lot of houses use strip heaters in their a/c blower units. It is very inefficient, but the heat comes on so seldom that it apparently is a cost-efficient solution over dedicated heaters. I don’t know enough about heat pumps and hybrid heat generators to comment about them. Our winter heating bills are very low, relative to the cost of cooling. I suppose, too, that it depends on your pain threshold. We keep the a/c at 73 in the daytime and set the heat at 70; however, at night we lower the a/c by one degree and the heat by four.
Ghost — I didn’t answer the heart of your question. In humid areas like Florida, it is tricky to keep room areas dehumidified enough to avoid mold and mildew, unless you run the a/c fairly frequently. Some people make the mistake of buying a too large/powerful a/c unit for the space to be cooled — it runs violently, so to speak, for a short time, and then shuts off. Better a less powerful one that runs long enough to wring the moisture out of the air.
I agree that it is a great idea to modify existing homes to maximize the benefits of zoning and insulation, inside and out. But I suspect the greater savings, for an equal amount of upgrades, likely is in the North.
In my 2400 sq. ft. house in the lower Hudson valley heat is 3 times as expensive as AC.
A/C in August: $100-$200/month
Oil Heat in February: $600/month
but please note that the company has reduced its landholdings 31% this year alone. Some of this land has been banked for years and is what you plan to buid upon in the future when ‘the market picks up’ Guess they are having serious doubts about things picking up, if ever!
Good catch, peter!
Wow, peter, the more I think about this, the more I feel you’ve spotted something rather significant. Of course, they could just need the cash and were willing to let go of some of the less desirable stuff. Toll seems to think Florida is going to hold value in the future, though. I doubt it.
“Oh, man, Toll thinks Florida is a favorable market? ”
Hell yeah it is. It’s not like there is bad traffic, a boatload of sex offenders, crappy construction etc. Some even call it paradise!
“…Countrywide would continue to make a limited number of sub-prime loans that could be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”
The Mozilo “Pimp” has some new “line” workers, Countrywide… will even pick you up in the stretch “hummer” limo and “escort” you to the signing “Office”
“Mozilo said flatly that ‘we are out of the sub-prime business.’ In subsequent remarks, he appeared to qualify that comment by saying Countrywide would continue to make a limited number of sub-prime loans that could be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”
Does this statement make anyone else mad besides me? So the taxpayers will foot the bill on the defaults. Someone needs to put some serious guidelines in place for Fannie and Freddie.
My response to the articles touting the proposed FHA limit of $730K is simply to ask, “What amount of annual income is required to support that?” IMO, it should be asked in every comment section of every article that deals with the topic. Presumably, someone will reply, to which we can follow-up. What can the reply be? $75,000 per year? $100,00 per year? $150,000 per year? Then work out the math, including taxes and insurance, to show why it can’t possibly work in any but a few exceptional cases, like “I make $243,000 a year and have no money to put down and I’d like the US Taxpayer to guarantee my loan for me. Thank you very much.”
“My response to the articles touting the proposed FHA limit of $730K is simply to ask, “What amount of annual income is required to support that?” IMO, it should be asked in every comment section of every article that deals with the topic.”
A VERY good idea, Chip.
I was talking with someone recently who lives mid-nowhere in the Central Valley in Cali. The guy was convinced that his house wouldn’t drop in price more than a few thousand dollars after it had tripled in price over what he paid for it just 6 years ago. He agreed that the coastal equity refugees have stopped buying there and no one is buying.
I asked him who locally is going to be buying average houses @$300-400K. He didn’t see the problem until I asked him how many people he knew who are making $100K+ in the area. He fell silent.
Almost no one stops to consider how much income is truly required to make real payments!
Sdsuntaxed - Are u kidding me?
Outside of places like this blog no one in this smug and self-satisfied society can do math and you should be glad they can’t add or no-one would buy a new car or any other item that depreciated.
What you are about to witness, IMHO is the come-uppance that these latte-swilling, undisciplined POS yuppies so richly deserve. I am in the top 0.5% of income earners in my country and I cannot believe the sinful wastes of money I see everyday by people with a lot fewer resources than myself. They have spent their ’seedcorn” and are now looking for handouts. Screw every last one of the a$$hats who think they deserve the lifestyle of a real achiever who makes ten times their income just because they are American, Canadian, Dutch, fill in the blank. And don’t forget, most Western countries will be handcuffed by their a$$-sucking politicians who won’t be able to explain to the populace at large that there will be no ‘retirement” and that their taxes will have to double.
And after a loooooooooooooooong time saving and listening to these mathematically changed dolts, I am going to savour every negativenews article, every slide in house prices, every story of loss and every twist and turn of the knife in the guts that this worldwide real estate meltdown will become.
And “…when the blood is in the streets..” to quote the infamous line, send me the sellers!
I’d say around $200k, give or take. Which if you have a two-income household of professionals is *somewhat* common in the Bay Area, New York, etc.
Why even debate it. 10% down on a $730k house is $73,000. How many even have that. Then if you do 3x income for the loan, you’d still need to make $219k. People making that are few and far between. Raising the limit on FHA is going to do the same as lowering the prime. Nothing.
Quote from the original post:
“‘The mortgage industry grew and grew because we created buyers who traditionally wouldn’t have qualified,’ Stern said. ‘All those people that are leaving the industry, it’s probably necessary because now there will be an equivalent number of industry people compared to transactions. There will be a lot less transactions, a lot less people, but a better market.’”
Okay, HBB-ers, where do you think these former mortgage salespeople will end up? Will they become big box store greeters? Cell phone kiosk-ers? Or something else?
They’ll be moving to India. I understand there’s a demand for English speaking customer service folks.
“hey’ll be moving to India. I understand there’s a demand for English speaking customer service folks.”
On the L.A. Times blog “LA Land” there was a mention about Mozilo increasing staffing levels in India for its “foreclosure prevention efforts”. I’m trying to find the actual story. Did anyone see a news item to that effect?
I saw that yesterday, and it’s posted in Bits, hiring 12,000 in India.
Anyone else thinks that it’s mighty convenient to move those phone jobs to India just when the phone calls from customers are about to turn from “goody yes I’ll buy” to “sob sob help me”?
Got attached product?
Yeah, because if they call India someone can say to them, “I no understand”
Starting Jan 1 in AZ employers will get serious penalties for hiring illegal aliens. All these former mortgage industry workers will have plenty of dishwashing, landscaping, painting, maid, childcare, janitorial, and other decent, honest blue-collar job opportunities. I think there are about 400K illegal workers in AZ right now, about half of which were in construction.
Yes, but those are jobs “Americans won’t do”. Well, we’ll just have to see. I have no problem washing dishes if it puts food on the table.
I think I get it! The U.S. government is trying to make things so bad here that by the time all is said and done, the illegals will be gratefully be flocking back from wence they came! They will have been taken advantage of by our sleezy mortgage brokers, kicked out of their homes by our greedy bankers and, finally, pushed out of menial, minimum wage jobs by our law-abiding employers! It all is starting to make sense!
Well, AZ Owner, here’s a nifty phone number for ya. Read all about it at:
http://www.mcso.org/include/pr_pdf/s%20Mobile%20Illegal%20Immigration%20Billboards.pdf
It’s the Maricopa County Sherrif’s illegal immigration hotline: 602-876-4154.
Yeah, I’ve heard about that phone number.
I wonder if anyone had ever called about the illegal alien that shot and killed that police officer in Phoenix yesterday? You know, the one who had served jail time, been deported, then snuck back over the wide open border? I’ll bet the cop’s family wish someone had “dropped a dime” on the guy.
Well, it’s too bad that someone didn’t. The online comments following this news story are livid. Raise your blood pressure at:
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/local/63438.php
Good one. Wish David Gee here in Hillsborough County would do the same. We’d have a lot less gang problems.
Yeah, the cop had two children and had survived cancer:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0919officershot0919.html
Contractors working in Naples must employ documented workers
http://tinyurl.com/2xffr3
By George, I think I’ve got it! The U.S. government is trying to make things so bad here that by the time all is said and done, the illegals will be gratefully be flocking back from wence they came! They will have been taken advantage of by our sleezy mortgage brokers, kicked out of their homes by our greedy bankers and, finally, pushed out of menial, minimum wage jobs by our law-abiding employers! It all is starting to make sense!
Living in Tempe, I see tons of help wanted signs. This weekend I went into a mexican restaurant and they were looking for dishwashers, bus boys and cooks. And I thought to myself I wonder who had those jobs a couple of months ago….
Okay, HBB-ers, where do you think these former mortgage salespeople will end up?
Actually, I think current bubble participants are pretty good leading indicators of the next bubble. I clearly remember an article in the San Jose Mercury News circa 2002 that discussed “where to find work after you’ve lost 3 jobs and given up on a dot com career.” Real estate and teaching were mentioned by several at that time…the get-rich-quick dot com crowd seems to have moved to RE as a group.
“Necessity (i.e. no job) is the mother of invention.”
Send them to South Florida. Miami-Dade is full of shady looking characters with no visible means of support. They’ll fit right in. Besides, the Haitians need something to shoot at.
Hookers and crack dealers. No legitimate industry would hire such incompetent bozos.
Umm, you’re forgetting about health insurance providers.
Make a million with Primerica! Agents wanted. Same pay as you are earning now (nothing) but with some hope of a sale in 6 months and a 30% commision.
Yeah, the industry where incompetence is an artform.
THE industry? Come on, Dog, there’s more than one industry where incompetence is an artform.
Telemarketers.
Mortgage brokers will definitely end up as sales people somewhere. They think that how you make the “big bucks”.
Debt Collectors for the bad mortgages they wrote.
““Moody’s itself, as well as Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, were criticized by investors, lawmakers and regulators for being too slow to respond to the rising defaults. Policy makers…have pointed to possible conflicts of interest between the ratings companies and the banks that pay their fees.””
Corporate earnings have the same credibiltity as Moody’s ratings. The accountants create numbers (Enron) and if they don’t do what the CEO says, another accounting team is brought in. All the stock pickers who use earnings as justification for their picks are fools.
The homebuilders were reporting incredible earnings, and the executives were dumping their stocks and options. Talking one way (earnings) doing something else (dumping stock).
That’s why it’s better to measure the entire market or industry. When total revenue starts to decline, it’s easier to identify the BSers.
Glen Beck interviews Peter Schiff and Michael Panzner
http://tinyurl.com/2r3hev
wow
Wow, and I thought *I* was a bear.
It’s all true, though. The U.S. has become a nation of fat-and-happy dolts living off the labors of past generations. That can only go on for so long.
Chris, I can appreciate how it seems to you that we’re a nation of dolts living off past generations. After all, this blog presents article after article detailing how citizens of every age group and socioeconomic condition tried to cash in on THE BIG FLIP.
But when I consider my own personal network, almost everybody works - and works hard. To the extent that they are enjoying material success, they have only themselves to thank.
You’re probably right. But one worries when it seems that all of our hard work seems to produce mostly lawsuits and lattes, with the production of goods being outsourced elsewhere. An exaggeration, I know…
…yeah who knows maybe if I scratched the surface I’d find more of an entitlement mentality than I’d expect!
What’s especially troubling is that the productive citizens may end up on the hook to bail out the dolts.
Above you read that Moody’s et. al. were criticized for not being more forthcoming with the bad economic outlook, and yet this Glen Beck guy gets hate mail for it. The same for this blog and others like it. It’s all here in black and white. The housing market is collapsing. We are headed toward a recession and the dollar is toast. But no one wants to hear it. They keep on doing what they’ve always done, spending money they don’t have to buy things they don’t need. Then, when everything you all have been saying for years starts actually happening to them, they come back and whine, “Why didn’t somebody tell me this was gonna happen?” People are idiots.
“‘What turned an overdue risk reappraisal into a financial panic is the combination of untested financial innovation, price- sensitive accounting rules, leverage and opacity,’ Mahoney and Cailleteau said. ‘This cocktail has proved explosive.’”
There’s is a combination that makes my ears twitch:
“Untested” & “Financial Panic”
… nothing like a huge “roundhouse” followed by a monstrous “uppercut” to a tired fighter “hanging” on the ropes…somebody please: “ring the bell”
Does anyone else get the idea that this is a huge “deer caught in the headlights” moment here in the old USA? Or maybe, more like a Three Stooges or Keystone Kops show, everyone smacking into everyone else, spouting utter nonsense and making grunting sounds. “Wiseguy, eh?” “Say, what’s the big idea?” “Hey, Moe!”
Seems like mass confusion, people don’t know whether to $hit or go blind and so just utter absolute nonsense.
It’s really one of those “ding-ding-ding here comes the wagon” moments, with the guys in the white uniforms. “They’re coming to take me away, ha-ha!”
Hmm, I think I just described the prelude to a panic.
its all 6’s and 7’s, again.
got the call last night from all the kool aid drinkers basking in the glory of the market comments range in the:”
“better get in on this bull run”,.
“your too doom and gloom all the time”,
hey kid leave the thinking to the big boys”
all I can tell em, yield curve is still inverted, curve pivots on the 5/10 and that is still cooking housings goose, the financials are still hiding losses on the balance sheet…..what changed with the rate cut? Oh, yeah….we created an inflation firestorm and a dollar thats goin down the crapper. Get ready for 90 bucks a barrell and currency in Canada that is more powerful than the MIGHTY usd
I think most people can hear the semi-truck barrelling down the road towards them but haven’t turned their heads yet to have the DITHs moment. I think we currently have some confusion (”what is that noise??”), then right after Thanksgiving will be the DIHLs moment, and 2008 will not be pretty.
I’ve been saying all along most folks will somehow avoid the DIHL moment ’til after Christmas, then as you say ‘08 looks ugly.
Builders in the U.S. began work on the fewest homes in 12 years in August. Building permits dropped 5.9 percent to a 1.307 million pace, also the lowest since 1995.
It doesn’t seem that anybody consistently collects data with regards to household formation, but the more reliable estimates seem to indicate that we are forming new households at a rate of less than a million per year.
Therefore, housing is STILL being built at too fast a rate, and needs to fall much further. I’m guessing that house construction will fall into the 100,000-300,000 unit/year range before bottoming out, because that’s the only way we have a chance of soaking up all the excess inventory.
first qtr household formation was off 70% per NAR
does that mean multi adult homes ?
count the cars out front
August - ‘the cruelest month,’
didn’t know that was a song- wonder how many of the HOT DEALS from the weekend will get funded
It’s a reference to an epic TS Eliot poem called The Wasteland:
April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.
(That’s just the relevant snippet, it’s really long.)
“‘With pain comes opportunity,’ Mozilo said at an investment conference.”
Was this the first time OrangeMan admit there was a run at Countrywide? Maybe he admitted there was a run back in August and I missed it. It sure seems like I read it for the first time yesterday when he said Countrywide averted a run.
Low rates got us into this mess and low rates will get us out of this mess.
Signed,
Bendover Bernanke
economic homeopathy
Unfortunately Ben Bernanke will be viewed as the Arthur F. Burns of the 21st century. I suspect that he will last only one term and that it will unfortunately take a Paul Volcker type to clean-up the mess. This is not a short term problem but one that will plague is for years to come…
BW’s Web Picks September 18, 2007, 7:18PM EST
The Fed: ‘Wall Street’s Bitch’
The deeper than anticipated rate cut launched bloggers into feats of rhetorical gymnastics that showcased their wit and wonderment
by Karyn McCormack
Related Items
* Bernanke’s Bailout
* Stocks Surge on Big Fed Rate Cut
“Shock and awe” was the pervasive theme on financial blogs after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a hefty half percentage point Sept. 18. Many pros were expecting a more muted 25-basis-point cut.
Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture said he was one of many surprised by the 50-basis-point cut. Along with the tight credit markets and inflation, he wrote that the Fed now has a third problem: “They have become Wall Street’s bitch.”
Images of “Helicopter Ben” showering money over landscapes appeared on a few blogs. DealBreaker displayed one of the Fed chairman throwing dollar bills out of a helicopter over the U.S. It said that a bearish investor told them “50 BPS=Fifty Bailout Points.” It added: “That sound you hear? That’s the sound of Ben flying overhead in his helicopter.”
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2007/pi20070918_630235.htm?chan=search
‘Wall Street’s Bitch’
Ben the bitch! Or is that bend the bitch?
Instead of “Bend it Like Beckham”, “Bend Over Like Bernanke”.
Hey, they didn’t mention THIS blog! I am truly crushed!
Slim, we are to civil. Some of those other blogs are downright scary!
LOL.
“‘Market conditions have changed,’ said Hovnanian during from a home-builder conference. ‘The market has been fraught with concessions and incentives.’”
“Also, potential buyers hear negative commentary on the housing market in the media and the problems shaking the mortgage market, he said.”
Negative commentary from the media…they just caught on you &%$#@!!!
Hey Ara, maybe we live on a street with LOTS of for sale signs and can put 2+2 together, unlike you grrrrrr.
Ben, I swear, these guys are onto this blog…LOL.
…too much inventory…we’re a long way off…people will mistrust their prices…half a point is sending the wrong message…supply glut…maybe the economy needs a recession…Fed cut will delay the inevitable…the piper has got to be paid…like a drug addict withdrawing from heroin (on credit addition).
OK…how many of these statements look familiar to my fellow bloggers? LOL.
I swear I heard a CNBC shill mention popcorn yesterday . Maybe I’m just going mad .
ROFLMAO!
In fact, it is April that is the cruelest month, “breeding lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain.” I’m impressed by the reference to T.S. Eliot, though. “The Waste Land” always has been one of my favorite poems.
test
Looks like it’s already starting to fizzle….
Candlesticks going dark. Who took off the lights?
????? Please elaborate.
candelsticks charts are technical analysis:
When the major signals appear on candlestick charts, an investor can prepare for when they get in and out of trades with a much more clear analysis. Being able to execute trades at an early stage of a reversal keeps an investor from having to execute less favorable trades when a trend is already in motion, trying to sell when the buyers are stepping away. Candlestick charts produce the evaluation graphics that allow an investor to make decisions instantly.
Thanks, jungle. I’m sort of a dim bulb when it comes to financial analysis. LOL. I thought the term “candlesticks” was just a metaphor for the euphoria flattening out.
The grim reality of what the Federal Reserve did yesterday is hitting the mopes on the Street. They realize that in their dreams of yesterday their entire portfolio after being up 450 pts on the Dow lost moneys relative to the world. The US Treasuries are taking the hit, FCBs appear to be the sellers. The dollar is under enormous pressures and Boeing which had been the stalwart company of 2006,2007 is running behind with its schedule to deliver the new 787 because of construction problems. Caterpillar is laying off workers, so is Coca-Cola. Differing industries impacted by falling demand. I wonder how Cerberus feels about having bought Chrysler today? It seems to me that Cerberus’ snake tail bit the heads.
The Fed’s “larger-than-expected” rate cut could have inadvertently signaled a behind-the-scenes state of panic.
That seems to be Toll’s opinion. Aw, heck, you just can’t please everybody.
All this negative news, yet the Dow keeps going up. I just don’t get it.
Re: Cerberus though, I’m thinking Chrysler isn’t their biggest problem right now, though that could change if they don’t settle with the UAW soon. GMAC (51% Cerberus owned) has taken a big hit on mortgages, not to mention they were trying to buy Option One from H&R Block. Seems to me they might want to try and weasel out of that one.
What scares me is that Boeing might cut corners to ship the 787 on schedule. I don’t fly often, but I will make a point of avoiding the plastic fantastic for a few years (say until 2012).
I noticed that also. Interesting
Maybe I’m having a senior moment, but what exactly are you referring to?
it’s a goofy chart method- stick to you method,it’s better
Dow Jones numbers etc.
Yeah, I’m refreshing the page, now I see what you and mrkt meant.
“‘Market conditions have changed,’ said Hovnanian during from a home-builder conference. ‘The market has been fraught with concessions and incentives.’”
“Also, potential buyers hear negative commentary on the housing market in the media and the problems shaking the mortgage market, he said.”
Ara, perhaps we have eyes that see all the dang for sale signs everywhere, genius.
Ben, I swear they’re onto your blog…LOL.
…too much inventory…we’re a long way off…people will mistrust their prices…half a point is sending the wrong message…supply glut…maybe the economy needs a recession…Fed cut will delay the inevitable…credit withdrawl; drug addict withdrawing from heroin…(and my personal favorite)…the piper has got to be paid.
LOL…fellow bloggers, what’dja think…maybe the peek here?
Chuckles,
Leigh
“‘Market conditions have changed,’ said Hovnanian during from a home-builder conference. ‘The market has been fraught with concessions and incentives.’”
“Also, potential buyers hear negative commentary on the housing market in the media and the problems shaking the mortgage market, he said.”
Perhaps we have eyes that see all the dang for sale signs where we live?
“Mozilo criticized media coverage of the mortgage meltdown several times Tuesday, saying reporters incorrectly blamed ‘aggressive lending and exotic reset products’ for rising foreclosures.” Well then what was the the reason?
“During the boom, many lenders, including Countrywide, gave borrowers loans without requiring them to document their income. It was widely assumed that many of the borrowers didn’t document their incomes because they were lying.” Noway say it ain’t so I quit my crummy $70,000 a year job to pick strawberries so I could afford a house and Jaun was lying?
“Though Mozilo said stated-income loans were indeed much more likely to go into default, the reason the owners gave for their distressed status was the same as for those with fully documented loans.” Ok again I ask what was the reason? When will these reporters actually ask a followup question? I would love to here his reasons.
Mozillo ,first I suggest you report the income you paid out to commissioned salespeople for fraudulent loans first .
Mozillo, the next thing you need to do is explain why you allowed your loans reps and borrowers to submit fraudulent loans when you were under duty to pass on well underwritten loan packages to the secondary market .
Third , when you knew the market was turning and your loans were crap you talked up the market and unloaded your stock .I do not accept that you needed the money to put your grandchildren in college for your dumping of stock .
You Mozillo ,being one of the biggest lenders in the Nation for mortgage loans ,could of stopped the agressive lending (fraud loans ) had you of been of the fiber that a CEO should be made of , as well as a long term lender guy .But no ,you figured you would pass the buck to the stupid investors in the secondary market like all the other scum did . But now you have a new sucker ,(which is FHA /freddie/Fannie …the taxpayers… ).
Countrywide was doing subprime loans years before anyone else. I had people in my neighborhood foreclosed on 5 or 6 years ago. They were loaned 110% of the value of their prop. payments were 5-6 times income. He started this and every sleezy lender in this country crawled out from under rocks and followed suit.
“Though Mozilo said stated-income loans were indeed much more likely to go into default, the reason the owners gave for their distressed status was the same as for those with fully documented loans.”
So they lied about their income when they applied for the loan, and you are surprised when they lie about the reason it went bad.
Who cares what the “reason” they gave was? Their word and judgement of a lying deadbeat is worth how much exactly? Verified assets only on that worth please…
“‘With pain comes opportunity,’ Mozilo said
Give him the joshua tree so he can gain some more opportunities.
returntothemotherships I like your screen name. Is this a science fiction reference or a fishing reference?
Kinda like all hell’s broke loose in America and and there seemed to be no reality, rhyme or reason to this housing bubble and when I found this blog and saw people that thought the same way I felt. It was like I returned to the mother ship where I belonged.
If this becomes a double post my apologies. returntothemotherships I like your alias. Is this in reference to science ficition or fishing?
Who’s pain? Is he first in line?
if you don’t like gold how about these ?
swz - got gold and drugs
may- got oil and sweatshops
any more
tia
From Minyanville,
The Fed Punishes Dollar Holders
http://tinyurl.com/2n5p8v
Isn’t that all AMERICANS who are paid in $$$$?
Humble appologies for double posts…had to restart the dang computer.
Same here! Must be the MoT.
Somebody stole the copper wires.
Hope they didn’t steal the copper clappers too!
http://tinyurl.com/umxnt
“Central banks may not have the tools to restore stability to credit markets amid the ‘Panic of ‘07,’ and instead should demand greater transparency from financial companies, Moody’s Investors Service said today.”
“‘The new financial paradigm has brought with it some problems, which the world’s financial policy technicians have not yet solved,’ Moody’s said in a report by Vice Chairman Christopher Mahoney and Senior VP Pierre Cailleteau. ‘Each credit crisis teaches new lessons, often resulting in corrective reforms. The current `Panic of ‘07′ will as well.’”
…
“Investors have an ‘over-reliance on ratings for pricing,’ Mahoney said. Some ‘have no idea what they have and they have no idea how to price it.’”
I am not sure the financial engineers who run the Fed’s plumbing system have the ethical wherewithal to offset the massive dessication of trust from the U.S. financial system. This is an ethical issue, not an engineering problem which can be resolved by targeting asset prices so as to ensure that they always go up.
“‘What turned an overdue risk reappraisal into a financial panic is the combination of untested financial innovation, price- sensitive accounting rules, leverage and opacity,’ Mahoney and Cailleteau said. ‘This cocktail has proved explosive.’”
Add to that AG’s open acknowledgment on national television that the Fed props up the stock market. This does not exactly create a deep well of confidence in the sustainability of irrationally exuberant valuations.
Investors have an ‘over-reliance on ratings for pricing,’ Mahoney said. Some ‘have no idea what they have and they have no idea how to price it.’”
In other words, “you shouldn’t have listened to us.”
Until 1929 market crashes were called “Panics”. In 1929 the crash was called a “Depression” instead of the more common “Panic” to make it seem less severe. It’s nice to see we’re back to calling a panic a panic.
test
Yeah, my comments dont come right through either.
NASDAQ has frozen trading on breaking news.
What breaking news? Did the FED cut a fart?
Dang it!!! Quit making me laugh out loud at work!!!!!!!
Or did the NASDAQ quit trading on breaking wind?
Double-digit home price drops coming
http://tinyurl.com/2bvyqn
Has any source admitted national median price drops yet?
Wow. I looked around and I could not find anything close to this article.
That article/table laughably underestimates the sizes of declines. Seattle/Bellevue/Everett is only going to decline 2.9% when houses are selling at 7.7 times income? Try 60% decline and it’ll be plausible … that is, unless Heli-Ben can actually stoke enough inflation to cause wage inflation.
They are also extracting price concessions from product suppliers and, in several cases, altering their house plans to use less building material.”
I didn’t think it was possible to use less building material than they already did! What, are these luxury condos going to fall apart in 6 months instead of 12 now?
“Ooooh, you wanted a kitchen sink with that?”
Personally I’d prefer vending machines so I don’t have to cook anymore. Forget the sink & stove.
Does stucco stick to refridgerator boxes?
Believe me, you don’t wanna know…
“I know that we are all living longer, but for what?…so we can endure the pain of a mortgage tied to our conscience every month. Ah, but you see…I did not want to buy a house as an “investment” …oh no, silly me…I sought to purchase something to make into a “Home”…ah, but alas, I’m a slow learner and struggle onward to make the conscience effort to live: simply”
Exactly!! My home is my RESIDENCE, not my “nest egg”, retirement fund or life investment.
Bernanke Says He Opposes Bigger Mortgages for Fannie, Freddie:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aS4.0gvi_pro&refer=home
Hear hear!
Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke opposed allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgages higher than $417,000, saying any such effort by Congress could undermine momentum toward strengthening regulation of the two largest U.S. mortgage finance companies.
Such congressional action “would be ill-advised if it has the practical effect of reducing the incentives to achieve meaningful” regulatory tightening over the companies, Bernanke said in a Sept. 17 letter to Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
NASDAQ shares has been halted. Bloomberg not sure why.
Are you SFBayQT? People change names… never know : )
No Tom
Did the Fed’s money pump temporarily break down or something?
Not finding much info, but it seems to have something to do with Borse Dubai.
“In other news, shares of NDAQ were halted as the WSJ reports Borse Dubai emerged as the leading contender to win Nasdaq Stock Market’s stake of about 30% in the London Stock Exchange Group.”
Who gives a plop?
‘But for those who need the most help, this does nothing for them. The Fed cannot help them at all.’”
What will solve the problem in the boom to bust states is when home prices fall back in line with incomes for each geographic area impacted. In most parts of Florida, home prices are still far from being affordable and the rate cuts will have no impact whatsoever. The cheerleaders from the NAR and state and local RE associations need to do a reversal and inform their members to price homes in accordance to income levels in their respected areas. Until that happens, now is not the time to buy!!!
“For those on the brink of foreclosure…and for those who also are subprime mortgage borrowers, the Fed move is of little consequence.”
The consequence of the Fed move yesterday will be even greater inflation which will have a significant impact on the consumer. Look at how oil shot up yesterday and again today. That in due time will impact your wallet or purse in a negative way as the cost cycle through the economy.
yeah, the pain of your $6,000 monthly mortgage will be diminished in light of your $10 gallon of gas and your $100 meatloaf.
Why do prices still rise in San Francisco? Still home prices seems outrageous, and will probably go even higher after the rate cut. Are there fewer homes for sale over here, or do people just think it is a good investment? It seems a lot of people (about 200 thousand) got re-assessment notices in the mail, and notice says home prices have increased about 6%, so the property tax has increased this much. This seems to be against proposition 13, whereby the house is only re-assessed when the only changes hands or there is new construction.
“‘I would have done a quarter instead of a half because it signals we’re in deep doodoo,’ said Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers Inc.”
Yes, Mr. Toll we are in deep doodoo and the fed will not save the day with rate cuts it’s simply too late…………
Why does the media keep talking to and using the stuff that come’s out of the Angelo Mozilo mouth, he has zero credibitlity considering he ran a company into the ground and cashed out before the stock get wrecked, at best he’s a criminal. This guy makes me me sick and the things he says are just insane…
test
What about this quote from LA Times:
To counter the rising tide of defaults, Mozilo said a quarter of the company’s loan personnel — 2,700 employees — were now engaged in “loss mitigation,” trying to help homeowners avoid foreclosure.
Soon it’ll be one third, then half. Talk about correcting your past screwups.
I refuse to believe gloom and doom. That said, I’m not totally stupid. I sold my house in March 2006, and bought a small townhouse in March 2007 in Co Springs for a song (where the boom wasn’t so big) and will stay here a while. My husband and I are saving our pennies and will probably go for a house (with land) again in 2009 when all the Fort Hood military families come up to Fort Carson. We expect that even if the market is so so, we should be able to sell the townhouse and move back east. At least that’s the plan.