September 28, 2007

The Ascendancy Of Buyer Over Seller

The Roanoke Times reports from Virginia. “The latest figures from the New River Valley Association of Realtors indicate…the volume of sales is down 4 percent from the first eight months of last year, and real estate agents say sellers are facing a far tougher environment than they did at the height of the housing boom. The median price of homes sold in the Southwest Virginia region served by the association actually declined nearly 3 percent for 2006.”

“If large numbers of homes are sitting unsold, as some real estate agents report, those slow-moving homes will not be reflected in the sales statistics until they finally do change hands.”

“‘What happens to the sellers in this market is they’re holding on for, pretty much, what the property is worth, which means that they’re staying on the market,’ said Jim Owens of Century 21 Jim Owens & Associates in Blacksburg and Christiansburg.”

“‘Buyers are very picky right now,’ agreed Louise Baker, supervising broker for Long & Foster’s Christiansburg office, who on Friday cited 164 single-family detached homes on the market in Christiansburg.”

“Baker said the number of homes on the market was at the highest level she has seen in her nearly 30 years in the business. Jo Alderson, an agent and broker in Radford, echoed that, and she has been in real estate even longer.”

“‘Prices are beginning to moderate a bit, but they needed to do that,’ Alderson added, referring to the unusually fast run-up in real estate value seen in recent years.”

“In another illustration of the ascendancy of buyer over seller, Baker cited two homes, one priced at $359,900, another about $458,000, for which sellers were willing to pay cash at closing to lower a prospective buyer’s interest rates for the first few years of a mortgage.”

“‘When that didn’t work, we just went back at the different [sale] price range that made it more attractive,’ Baker said.”

“In other words, they dropped the price.”

“‘They really need to listen to their agent about what’s going on in the marketplace,’ Baker said. ‘We have some sellers that still think it’s 2005.’”

The Laurel Leader from Maryland. “Foreclosures are soaring in Maryland. Prince George’s County is leading the state’s foreclosure list, with foreclosed homes in 2007 jumping from 2,300 through July up to 2,800 in August, according to RealtyTrac.”

“No specific totals were available for Laurel, but RealtyTrac listed 1,100 homes in foreclosure in the 20707 and 20708 zip code areas on Sept. 21. There were 749 listed in the 20723 area code and 397 foreclosed homes listed with a 20724 area code.”

“‘I can’t imagine this area is insulated from what’s happening over the country,’ said City Council President Frederick Smalls. ‘People in Laurel got in homes with Adjustable Rate Mortgages and they have matured, their loan payments have ballooned, there may not be enough equity in the home to refinance, so I’m sure there are people in Laurel in this same situation.’”

“‘These types of loans weren’t for people to purchase homes but for investors who planned to sell the home in a year. They (investors) want the lowest payment possible and don’t care what will happen in future years because they will sell before the rate changes,’ said Richard Milton, president of Metropolitan Financial in Upper Marlboro.”

“Homeowners are seeing their monthly payments increase by $1,000 or more in many cases, depending on the terms of the loan. For example, Milton said, ‘You may be paying $2,700 a month on a $600,000 house when the real mortgage is $5,000. When that amount comes due and you can’t pay it you have a problem. You can’t sell the home in this flat market, you can’t refinance and your balance is now $620,000.’”

“Mosi Harrington, executive director of a group that provides financial advice to homeowners, said she blames unscrupulous lenders for putting borrowers in ‘dumb’ loans.”

“‘A lender only has to qualify a borrower for the first year of the ARM, so some (lenders) did these loans even though they knew the borrower wouldn’t qualify for the second year (when the interest rate increased),’ said Harrington.”

“Michael Reza, owner of Breeze Mortgage in Laurel, said some brokers were selling other products, like cell phones, in past years and switched to mortgages when the market was hot to make a quick dollar.”

“‘Some inexperienced (brokers) are intentionally giving the highlights of these loans and not the cons, and some are green to the business and know only one or two loan products,’ Reza said. ‘Mortgage financing should be custom fit for the borrower and it’s vital to know what your payments will be long range.’”

“According to Phillip Robinson, executive director of the Baltimore-based Civil Justice Network, ‘A lot of people in Prince George’s County who were prime borrowers (high credit scores) were steered into these subprime loans when they refinanced by brokers they trusted. Now that the introductory teaser rates are over, the loans have become unaffordable and unmanageable.’”

“‘All new developments in Laurel, Bowie and Upper Marlboro are seeing foreclosures,’ he said.”

“Milton blames the developers of the creative mortgage loan products, builders and Wall Street for the increased use of the unconventional loans.”

“‘It’s not just the brokers’ fault, but the product developers and regulators who allowed the loan products to be out there,’ Milton said. ‘Wall Street made money on these loans, and builders were allowed to triple the cost of their homes and they aren’t worth it.’”

“And due to a flat real estate market, those who are selling their homes before going into foreclosure, are going about it in creative ways, such as throwing in plasma television sets with a sale. ‘I had one client who threw in a car,’ Milton said.”

The Citizen Times from North Carolina. “The Blues Brothers at the Biltmore Estate. Bruce Hornsby playing a private party in Jackson County. Helicopter and hot air balloon rides. Catered food, acrobats, fly-fishing lessons, fireworks.”

“If you’re buying upscale property in Western North Carolina, you can expect to be feted — in a big way. Local developers are upping the ante when it comes to extravagant parties for buyers.”

“‘Over the course of time we’ve had Chris Isaak, Michael McDonald of the Doobie Brothers, and then this year we’ve had Bruce Hornsby and Bad Company,’ said Jason Maring, marketing director at Bear Lake Reserve, an upscale community planned for 800 homes in Jackson County.”

“The Asheville area has plenty of high-dollar developments, too, so look for the trend to continue. Two decades ago, million-dollar homes were a rarity, and even as late as 2002, Buncombe County had just 38 homes with an assessed tax value of $1 million or more. In 2006, a property revaluation year, the number jumped to 484.”

“Western Carolina University economist James F. Smith said such extravaganzas are not new to the real estate industry, but they may be escalating in WNC, where upscale developments abound.”

“‘Even as tremendously expensive as these things are, if they sell one lot from that, they’ve made that back and more,’ said Jack Teague, who has bought property in Seven Falls. He may have a point, many of the lots in Seven Falls go for about $300,000. Homes will cost three to four times that.”

“Smith, the economist, notes that the parties also serve as a way to get investors who’ve bought a lot to get busy building a home — and paying for it. That keeps cash flow coming in for developers and builders.”

The Charlotte Observer from North Carolina. “At The Vineyards on Lake Wylie this afternoon, potential homebuyers can sample wine, look at boats and take helicopter tours.”

“A handful of southern Mecklenburg neighborhoods have gone to similar lengths to sell houses. And many communities are targeting brokers and buyers with luncheons, open houses and promises of rebates, upgrades and other perks.”

“Some say the efforts are a creative way to generate buzz. Others say the incentives are a sign of a slowing housing market in Charlotte, developing on the heels of a nationwide slump.”

“‘I think it shows that builders are going to any and all lengths to sell their product and create hype,’ said Brian Passarelli of RE/MAX Executive Realty in Ballantyne. ‘If people get the sense that things are going quickly, they might be forced into making a decision quicker.’”

“The Vineyards event is meant to promote the first four neighborhoods in the 600-acre community, with homes ranging from the $250,000s to the $600,000s. The event is free, but organizers are ‘highly encouraging’ people to consider buying a home, said Demi Clark, marketing director for builder D.R. Horton’s Charlotte division.”

“Longtime agent Dan Cottingham said such incentives could be signs of a slowing market. Part of the reason is the nationwide slump, and another part is that developers here continue to roll out new homes, crowding the market, he said.”

“‘We have a market that’s gaining in inventory, and that always happens when the market slows a bit,’ Cottingham said.”

“Still, incentives work, mainly to help buyers justify a purchase, he said. ‘I’ve never been able to convince someone to do something they don’t want to do,’ he said. ‘But it is a positive.’”

“Debe Maxwell of Coldwell Banker’s SouthPark office, said incentives aimed at the general public can be fruitless. ‘It’s an expense, I feel, that doesn’t generate purchases,’ she said.”




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95 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-09-28 06:44:01

‘WASHINGTON — New home sales dropped to their lowest level in seven years in August, and the slump is creating some opportunities for buyers. D.C. area developers are coming up with creative ways to sell houses.’

‘Ryland Homes will hold a silent auction on Saturday for more than 100 new homes in northern Virginia. The homes have been discounted to about 20 percent off their full price.’

Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 07:01:24

“‘It’s not just the brokers’ fault, but the product developers and regulators who allowed the loan products to be out there,’ Milton said. ‘Wall Street made money on these loans, and builders were allowed to triple the cost of their homes and they aren’t worth it.’”

Builders and home owners, too. All the prices down here (Tampa) are at least triple what the should be. Down the street from me is a renovated BUNGALOW with an asking price of nearly two million. Eight years ago, there was a single house–not even the largest–in all of Tampa that could get that.

Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 07:02:22

“there WASN’T a single house” Sorry about the typo.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-28 07:22:05

Don’t worry, in 3 years, there probably will only be one home in Tampa that can garner $2M.

A great weekend topic would be “what are the conditions on the ground is bubble areas.”

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 07:26:39

Well, there are houses going for way over ten million now; one down the street coast about twenty million to build. There are lots of wealthy people moving here and turning it into a disaster (translation: playground for themselves and their relatives). Here the term “equity locusts” can be shortened. They’re just locusts. They do the same thing everywhere they go.

 
Comment by Neil
2007-09-28 08:10:02

There is something called the “white elephant” effect with housing. In a bad downturn, after say more hedge fund failures, there is an issue selling large homes due to the high upkeep costs.

Its not unheard of for a home to lose 75% of its “value” in a bad downturn. Also, recall that that $20 M was for bubble labor, land, and materials. I’m betting its really a $5M home. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-09-28 09:50:43

There is something called the “white elephant” effect with housing.

The white elephant effect is followed by the pink elephant effect caused by massive drinking after the home owner loses everything.

 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-09-28 09:22:15

If I’m still here in five years, and if our currency has not by that time been turned into toilet paper, I plan to buy in Palma Ceia with cash, and my wife and I are not wealthy people.

On these collected stories, one day I might just go to one of these real estate extravaganzas. I’ll drink the wine, eat the catered food, take a ride in the hot-air balloon, listen to the live music, and enter in the drawing for a new car. I will tell the developers and realtors, with a straight face, how much their plain McMansion subdivision looks like Tuscany.

Comment by vcrenter
2007-09-28 11:34:53

LOL!!!

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Comment by Ostriches
2007-09-28 07:57:26

“The homes have been discounted to about 20 percent off their full price.”

BBZZTTT! Wrong answer. If they sell for 20% less than previous comparable sales, that is their new current full price.

Comment by GH
2007-09-28 08:24:00

so currently selling for 20% under full 2005 price and 50% over full 2000 price.

I suppose they mean 20% under peak price.

 
 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-09-28 06:53:56

buying wild stuff like gas/oil & food
Consumer Spending Posts Better-Than-Expected Gain While Inflation Eases

Comment by jungle_man
2007-09-28 13:05:10

the fixed incomes better show up and fix this mess of crap thats being fed the masses.

let the tyranny of the majority begin, this time in ernest.

 
 
Comment by SFC
2007-09-28 06:57:41

I think that the prices I saw in Western North Carolina make even less sense than what we have here in South Florida. At least in South Florida there are SOME jobs that can support those prices. We were in Cashiers this Summer. Nice place, but it seemed so strange to be in an area where there are many homes asking over $1 million, while many of the locals have no teeth.

Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 07:04:58

I don’t think the toothless people are locals; more like transplants. Floridians have known about toothpaste and fluoride for a long time.

Comment by SFC
2007-09-28 07:13:05

I was talking about the North Carolina locals. Nice people, but really, really poor.

Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 07:23:20

Sorry. I never liked N.C. and haven’t been there in ages. I remember it was beautiful, but very, very boring.

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Comment by Yo Momma
2007-09-28 09:30:31

You obviously haven’t lived in Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Asheville, or Raleigh.

 
 
Comment by observer
2007-09-28 07:45:13

Yeah, the greens guy at the Waynesville Golf & CC had missing teeth. Worked there for years.

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Comment by jetson_boy
2007-09-28 08:30:22

Yeah- EVERYONE in NC is poor and missing teeth… classic.

I grew up in TN and we went to NC frequently. Asheville was a beautiful town and is actually fairly progressive with good food, farmer’s markets, and within easy access of the Blue Ridge Parkway, which itself is beautiful. The mountainous region is rich in musical and artistic heritage. People from there take great pride in preserving their traditions, which I hope will be maintained since half of the retards from Florida and the Northeast are now streaming in to buy those cheaply constructed Mcmansions.
NC is just like any other state. There are some really great, interesting, beautiful areas and then there are some really ugly areas. Trust me- I live in CA now and despite what everyone says about it, 3/4 of the state is butt-ugly,with the rest being impossibly unaffordable. And yes- I’ve seen perhaps way more poor people and quite a few missing teeth.

Lastly, I think I’d much rather hang out with good-ole-boys from NC than have to listen to some of the snobby A-holes that live in the Bay Area ANYDAY.

 
Comment by Johnny B. Good
2007-09-28 09:08:52

There are snobby a-holes everywhere, Jeston Boy. That included NC.

 
Comment by J J GA
2007-09-28 09:47:27

Everyone in the South is a dumb, racist, hillbilly rube who is married to his cousin and has no teeth. The NY Times and SF Chronicle keeps telling me so, therefore it must be true.

Case closed.

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 11:21:34

When a friend of mine from Tampa, one of the Hamptons (of THE Hamptons) was visiting New York, people there actually asked him if we had paved roads and television in the South. He looked like a bazillionaire and spoke with a beautiful, cultured voice, but would tell people in bars with a straight face that he was a migrant worker, and followed the crop harvests cross-country. And the really stupid ones believed him, and would breathlessly ask for details.

 
Comment by Betamax
2007-09-28 13:31:13

Does he have all his teeth?

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 15:15:24

Yes, perfect, but note I write of him the past tense. He died (suicide) nine years ago.

 
 
Comment by Skip
2007-09-28 08:29:26

Most likely results of crystal meth use. It destroys the teeth.

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Comment by BP
2007-09-28 08:39:30

Excuse me if this is double post

I think you have to understand there is a huge difference between SFL and Asheville. I know I lived in both. First Asheville is very small compared to SFl so it doesn’t take many high tech, manufacturing jobs to support the area. Secondly this area has been the summer hideaway for about 120 years for the rich from Charleston and other coastal areas. (Remember Biltmore House). There is land to build on however it is expensive due to engineering and local permits (slope issues). After about a decade of companies moving from the area now there are many companies moving here. Volvo headquarters, Google research center, and various types of light manufacturing. Low crime rate and high level of education. Having said all this, prices are somewhat dependent SFL folks moving here with tons of cash. The area sales have slowed down quite a bit however I do know that on my street alone in the past 3 months I have seen three homes sell in less than 2 weeks and the prices are insane (two sold last week). I am not claiming is immune to bubble because it isn’t. I expect a 20%-30% drop in prices at the low point 2 years from now. The real problem is going to be the tons of vacation homes set far from town in the 1 million plus range. There are going to be many speculators that will feel the pain on those. I can safely say we have NONE of the problems experienced in Florida.

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Comment by Yo Momma
2007-09-28 09:54:12

I was listening to someone (forget who?) about triangle area real estate. While it’s not entirely bubble proof (esp. the McMansions), the person mentioned “a friend” (basically, anecdotal evidence) of a bad job market when in reality unemployment is something in the area of 1-2% for college educated people in the area. Much of the current tech work is unshippable (logistics make it intractable), life sciences, and other assorted work that is so deficient in good talent that even India has to ship in labor from the US. Someone working at Wally World can afford a townhome in many decent portions of Knightdale and East Raleigh, at 3x income too.

 
Comment by Ernest
2007-09-28 10:10:41

“Having said all this, prices are somewhat dependent SFL folks moving here with tons of cash.”

Appears the FL builders are too.

$500 million waterfront development planned for New Bern by Florida company

http://tinyurl.com/2776bw

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-09-28 15:18:00

That reads like a lot of hot air.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-09-28 07:09:08

Apparently lots of people there making 350-400K a year?

:)

I would like to see a graph showing the number of 1M+ homes in the USA compared to the number of people who make 300K a year. I have a feeling the number of homes is about 10X the number of people who can afford them. That’s just my guess, any takers?

Comment by WT Economist
2007-09-28 07:15:36

It could be. They aren’t building housing for locals in WNC or South Florida, so they didn’t worry about the income earned by locals.

They may end up selling or renting to locals, however.

 
Comment by veloblues
2007-09-28 07:51:14

Perhaps we shouldn’t forget the huge numbers of wealthy foreigners who are standing ready to buy homes in the U.S. Also, don’t forget that Columbus Day traditionally marks the beginning of home selling season.

:)

v_blues

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-28 09:33:42

Something else to remember. People who make a lot of money would rather have a home custom built to their tastes and specifications. Many of these McMansions will sit because of that.

 
Comment by Bronco
2007-09-28 12:34:23

It’s probably way more than 10x. In some areas of California, you cannot find any houses under $1M.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-09-28 07:43:59

There are numerous display ads in the WSJ every week for upscale properties in western NC. Since they’re mostly in relatively remote areas (few employment opportunities), I think the primary buyers are wealthy people looking for a second (or even a third or fourth) home. And the article implies there are relatively few such buyers these days.

However, it’s difficult to resell such homes. Most people with that kind of money want to design and build their own dream house. They don’t want to buy someone else’s used dream house.

Comment by jinwnc
2007-09-28 09:09:22

I’m on the ground in W NC and can’t believe lots that sold for 20k-40 were being sold for 100k and better.
One developement, 30 miles from town, had lots selling for 200k. Floridians snapped them up at pre-sale prices of 150k.
19 out of 20 lots I counted recently were listed as ‘resales’ for 220-250k.
A very good friend, retired Navy/realtor refuses to take listings on them. His office, national chain, sold TWO houses in August.
Floridians snapped up homes and land faster than you can shake a stick at them. NEVER saw a Humvee here till 2-3 years ago, now plenty of realtors have them, for now.
SLOWWWWWW sales. Realtors are waiting on Fl to turn around. All I can do is tell them ‘it will’. (10-15 years)
I know too many good people that jumped on the R/E bandwagon, some I feel sorry for, but some definately need the dose of reality they will get.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-09-28 09:27:35

How many houses can any one rich person or household truly use and enjoy? I can see splitting time between two houses, and know snowbirds who do that. Maybe even three houses, even though I haven’t yet met anyone who tried it. Beyond three, it’s nothing more than an expensive form of collecting.

 
 
Comment by BP
2007-09-28 08:22:51

I think you have to understand there is a huge difference between SFL and Asheville. I know I lived in both. First Asheville is very small compared to SFl so it doesn’t take many high tech, manufacturing jobs to support the area. Secondly this area has been the summer hideaway for about 120 years for the rich from Charleston and other coastal areas. (Remember Biltmore House). There is land to build on however it is expensive due to engineering and local permits (slope issues). After about a decade of companies moving from the area now there are many companies moving here. Volvo headquarters, Google research center, and various types of light manufacturing. Low crime rate and high level of education. Having said all this, prices are somewhat dependent SFL folks moving here with tons of cash. The area sales have slowed down quite a bit however I do know that on my street alone in the past 3 months I have seen three homes sell in less than 2 weeks and the prices are insane (two sold last week). I am not claiming is immune to bubble because it isn’t. I expect a 20%-30% drop in prices at the low point 2 years from now. The real problem is going to be the tons of vacation homes set far from town in the 1 million plus range. There are going to be many speculators that will feel the pain on those. I can safely say we have NONE of the problems experienced in Florida.

Comment by J J GA
2007-09-28 10:06:04

Proximity to high tech and manufacturing jobs are not a pre-requisitne to having a well of community. That is such old school thinking. High paying jobs today are not found working in an assembly plant.

And the high-tech jobs can for the most part be done anywhere. I work in high-tech and live in a fairly affluent area that is nowhere near any traditional high-tech areas. I work from home and occasionally travel to client sites. I get paid the same whether I live in the middle of Silicon Valley or in rural Arkansas. My knowledge dictates my income, not where I live.

In general my neighbors are in the same situation. Techs, accountants, engineers, “finance guys”. And all for the most part work from home or telecommute or travel to their projects. Not too many cube dwellers on my block.

Of my close friends, practically nobody has a job in the traditional 9-5 M-F go to an office in the city where you live jon. They travel, they are independent contractors, etc. One friend I have travels to London for 3 weeks, then comes home for 3 weeks.

A place like Asheville is perfectly suited to attract this new class of middle to upper middle class professional worker who can live anywhere.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 07:33:38

And the paid off bands, played on…

“Smith, the economist, notes that the parties also serve as a way to get investors who’ve bought a lot to get busy building a home — and paying for it. That keeps cash flow coming in for developers and builders.”

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 07:43:12

S.P.Q.A.

“Smith, the economist, notes that the parties also serve as a way to get investors who’ve bought a lot to get busy building a home — and paying for it. That keeps cash flow coming in for developers and builders.”

 
Comment by SKB
2007-09-28 07:44:02

“Still, incentives work, mainly to help buyers justify a purchase, he said. ‘I’ve never been able to convince someone to do something they don’t want to do,’ he said. ‘But it is a positive.’”

Hey moron, lower the price that is the “incentive” that we are waiting for.

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-09-28 08:23:04


They are NOT looking to sell to savvy people. Their target audience are the gullible. They know their prey.

Jas

Comment by palmetto
2007-09-28 09:07:53

Exactly, Jas. The contempt of the HBs towards their clientele is sort of obvious in the type of gulag architecture and shoddy building that is offered in many cases. I see it around here. To add insult to injury is the sort of price that these units (that’s what they call them, units. Consumers living in units. Not people living in houses) carry. I just got a rumor of a major HB who has sold homes in our area with the promise of a pool and clubhouse, neither of which has been built, although people are already living there. The HOA is in knots, but nothing they can do about it except complain, because if they try to sue, the HB will bury them.

Comment by reuven
2007-09-28 09:41:12

HOAs are the ticking timebomb that will make all new homes and gated communities worthless. You can’t control their assessments. It’s a private government with no accountability.

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Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-09-28 09:38:37

Tell me a prime buyer, who’s smart enough to actually be a prime buyer, would be stupid enough not to figure out a lower price is better than incentives, unless you’re also giving them the house next door to get the sale.

 
 
Comment by bubbleglum
2007-09-28 07:48:03

“‘If people get the sense that things are going quickly, they might be forced into making a decision quicker.’”

This is so 2004.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 07:50:02

Laurel lies, were just the same as every other big lie, in a country of liars…

“‘I can’t imagine this area is insulated from what’s happening over the country,’ said City Council President Frederick Smalls. ‘People in Laurel got in homes with Adjustable Rate Mortgages and they have matured, their loan payments have ballooned, there may not be enough equity in the home to refinance, so I’m sure there are people in Laurel in this same situation.’”

 
Comment by Renter
2007-09-28 07:51:50

“‘What happens to the sellers in this market is they’re holding on for, pretty much, what the property is worth, which means that they’re staying on the market,’ said Jim Owens of Century 21 Jim Owens & Associates in Blacksburg and Christiansburg.”

Hmm.. I would have thought it would have sold immediately if all the sellers wanted was what the property was worth.

Comment by Lisa
2007-09-28 08:20:31

“Hmm.. I would have thought it would have sold immediately if all the sellers wanted was what the property was worth.”

Exactly. RE agents aren’t doing anyone a favor by continuing this line of BS. No wonder nothing’s selling.

 
 
Comment by joesixpack
2007-09-28 07:58:12

“‘What happens to the sellers in this market is they’re holding on for, pretty much, what the property is worth, which means that they’re staying on the market,’

Of course that is what that means. How could anyone argue with such logic.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-28 08:12:03

Yea…

Hey, Lockhart (Fed) just noted Florida’s economy is still growing (tidbit on Bloomberg). Why am I not believing that…

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by James
2007-09-28 08:43:57

Hey there Neil,

The robust consumer spending reports probably point tword “growth” in the inflationary Feds groupthink. More likely people are dealing with rising prices and decreased buying power. The Fed just looks and says more dollars= growth.

At least that is how I understand their calculation.

Comment by Neil
2007-09-28 09:04:24

Amazing how many people think that way.

I had a bunch of very upset coworkers when I pointed out that the fed rate cut cost them two week’s pay from next year due to inflation of imported goods. My sarcastic remark of “or you can boycott imported goods” didn’t go over so hot… but it made them think. Every one of that small group, as individuals, came to me later with questions. In other words, we’re breaking through the ice.

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by ET-chicago
2007-09-28 09:35:49

A lot of people, even well-educated, financially savvy people, don’t think about the larger implications of policy decisions — monetary policy is just one more baffling issue floating around in the daily news-swirl.

When you position the rate cut and ensuing inflation as a effective loss of two week’s pay, that’s something everybody can relate to. Simple. Direct.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 08:07:56

1/10th Rip Van Winkles

“‘They really need to listen to their agent about what’s going on in the marketplace,’ Baker said. ‘We have some sellers that still think it’s 2005.’”

Comment by Jasper
2007-09-28 09:29:26

Aladin,

You’re killing me with these. Too clever. This one will win the golden quote award for the day, unless you can better yourself in a subsequent post.

Your “seven out, line away” from yesterday had be burst out laughing in a meeting. Please give some forewarning next time you have a doozy commin’. Light a match or something, i dont know………….

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 08:21:55

Cartman, the Realtor?

“Debe Maxwell of Coldwell Banker’s SouthPark office, said incentives aimed at the general public can be fruitless. ‘It’s an expense, I feel, that doesn’t generate purchases,’ she said.”

 
Comment by GH
2007-09-28 08:25:30

I think when I buy a place I will make the seller come back and feed the squirrels and birds :)

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-09-28 08:39:58

This got overlooked on the bits bucket. This is super interesting! I’ll bet lots of these cases will be filed againt law firms who also gave opinion letters.

*****************

Nomura Asset Capital Corp., a U.S. division of Japan’s largest securities firm, filed suit against Cadwalader last October in Manhattan Supreme Court over documents the law firm drafted for a 1997 securitization transaction in which Nomura pooled 156 commercial mortgages worth around $1.8 billion.
At issue in the Nomura suit are two separate warranties Cadwalader included in the documents for the transaction. Both warranties stated that each mortgage included in the pool “qualified” for special tax status under Internal Revenue Service regulations. But one warranty more specifically stated that this meant the mortgages were backed by properties worth at least 80 percent of the mortgage amounts.
That second warranty became a problem for Nomura after a number of the mortgages went into default. LaSalle Bank, which was holding the securitized pool in trust, sued Nomura on the grounds that the defaulting mortgages were not qualified, with one large mortgage secured by property worth only around 60 percent of the loan.
Nomura hoped to escape liability on the basis of a “safe harbor” provision of the IRS regulations, which state that mortgages should be 80-percent secured by property but allow that an issuer’s “reasonable belief” about a property’s value may be sufficient to qualify a mortgage.
But the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a trial court’s dismissal of the suit and ruled in a 2005 decision in Lasalle Bank v. Nomura Asset Capital Corp., 424 F. 3d 195, that Nomura’s inclusion of a second warranty specifying 80 percent created an obligation distinct from the IRS rules.
Following the 2nd Circuit decision, Nomura settled with LaSalle for $67.5 million. The issuer is now claiming Cadwalader committed legal malpractice by including an 80-percent warranty and is asking for $70 million in damages.
Represented by David Marriott of Cravath, Swaine & Moore, Cadwalader has moved to dismiss the suit, arguing that the firm cannot be held liable for failing to predict how the 2nd Circuit would rule. The firm claims the inclusion of both warranties was the “industry standard” for securitization documents, with almost identical language appearing in the Standard & Poor’s structured finance manual.
Cadwalader further claims that Nomura’s situation would be no different had the defaulting loans not been included in the securitized pool, as they would have remained on Nomura’s books.
The motion to dismiss remains pending before Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Herman Cahn.

Comment by Leighsong
2007-09-28 09:12:30

…and let the lawsuits begin…sigh.

Comment by Devildog
2007-09-28 09:21:49

Everyone hunker down - they have themselves in a crossfire. If we wait a while maybe they’ll kill each other off…

Comment by Olympiagal
2007-09-28 09:58:31

Maybe the survivors will even eat each other after, so there won’t be a mess for the rest of us to clean up.
‘Sides the bones and Hummer keys.

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Comment by James
2007-09-28 09:30:31

Its pretty interesting to make a list of all occupations in the US that don’t produce a dang thing.

Lawyers, most police, DMV workers, financial analysts, politicians, salesman, realtors, most government workers, news anchors…

You slash through all that stuff and the number of people that do anything useful is amazingly small.

Got to love the waste of lawsuits. J6P has to deal with the huge government spending on it even if you are not involved.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 10:26:24

I got a bit of an eduction in New Zealand, about how wickedly wrong our tort system of law, is…

We parasailed, jetboated, took guided walks on glaciers, and more cool stuff and never once signed a waiver for anything, nada.

If I go to the dentist here in the states, he wants me to fill out 6 pages of gobblygook CYA nonsense…

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Comment by jungle_man
2007-09-28 13:12:16

everyones a victim in the USA, a nation of victims looking for crimes.

 
 
Comment by mags57
2007-09-28 20:30:10

As a lawyer, I have to laugh at your post. You’re right, lawyers don’t do anything productive or useful … until you run screaming for one when you’re personally involved - somebody damages/steals your property, renegs on a contract, you get arrested, you get sued, you want to contest the will, etc.

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Comment by Sniggle
2007-09-28 08:43:57

PG County in MD is going to be ground zero for this area. I sold my house there in the spring of 2005 and it was bought by someone with an 800+ fico score using what I assume was a teaser rate arm with over $16000 in loan fees. This was on a mortgage of around $400,000. I rented back for a month, and the cost of that month was only $1800, so I new that the loan was some screwy suicide loan (although I appreciated it for my one month stay).

PG County had so much development in the last 3 years, and the signs infront of the developments were scary: From the 700’s, no money down, 10,000 back at closing.

They are going to crash and burn…it will soon be known as the most indebted black county in the country.

Comment by catherine c.
2007-09-28 10:10:07

You knew there was something wrong when one day there were 800K houses in Bowie

 
Comment by mags57
2007-09-28 20:36:34

I actually grew up in Laurel, amazed to see it on the blog. Not surprised though b/c it’s a subprime target b/c the vast majority of it is a sh1thole, but the prices still exploded b/c of the location (right off I-95, 20m S to DC, 20m N to Balt) as people were pushed out of the NoVA/DC area. I would imagine that there are a lot of older/original residents that couldn’t resist taking the refi ‘equity’ after 3 or 4x appreciation in such a short period of time. Of course, their income didn’t go up …..

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 08:48:29

“Michael Reza, owner of Breeze Mortgage in Laurel, said some brokers were selling other products, like cell phones, in past years and switched to mortgages when the market was hot to make a quick dollar.”

Rank amateurs with no experience, leading the charge…

 
Comment by wawawa
2007-09-28 09:03:45
Comment by Neil
2007-09-28 09:16:40

I can’t save or make people money by telling them to buy realestate.

I’ve come to the conclusion that Cramer is a populist entertainer and he’s realized that unless he trashes real estate (now) his job is toast. If you think of him as just an entertainer (on his show, not his fund), then he is making very astute moves by barely leading the MSM on this.

Snicker… the NAR and brokers are now the bad guys. Cramer gets that much. Thus he either attacks them or he is going to be seen as “with them.” By December, this will boost his ratings and give him a false “halo effect.”

J6P still doesn’t get it… but I love that Quote from August 2006. :)

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by James
2007-09-28 09:56:42

Off topic rambling response…

I can’t make it to the Cheese Cake factory this weekend. Family in town.

kramer… light entertainment… does anybody use his information as any serious investment guide?

Memories are pretty short. In a another year he will be claiming that he warned everyone early about the bust before it got really bad.

In a sense that is true because the BIG price drops have not happened yet. Of course that is because sales are dead… so he will portray that as timely advice.

Anyhow I’m wondering if people get sick of the stagflation and we go in to a depression where the debt cycle gets unwound. All of the Feds thinking seems to be in terms of velocity of money terms (as static money is valueless). However it seems like the classical lessons about stability have been forgotten so the Feds inflationary policies (along with the government) have left everyone sensitive to economic shocks.

I’m wondering about debt exhaustion on a national or even world wide level. Numbers I have heard seem to say something like total US government, personal and corporate debt exceeds 45T. If that is so we are close to debt exaustion as a society. That is getting in to the 5X GDP range. So that is perhaps a signal. Of course we will inflate/monitize out of it but the numbers are ugly.

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-09-28 09:20:55

Testify, jetty! And then do it again!

I do ag stuff now and then, and meet people who live in fairly remote rural areas where there aren’t tons of bucks and clinics and those people, especially the farmers, are good folks. The best sort.
What, like a big head full of expensive teeth makes you a better person?
If teeth are the criteria of worth, then the capitol would definitely be the place to be— it’s jam packed with sterling grade A useless asshats, almost all of whom have giant, shining, sparkling white teeth.
I’ll choose farm country and farmers anytime.

Comment by Blano
2007-09-28 09:59:49

Amen to that.

 
Comment by Greg
2007-09-28 10:32:28

That’s why I’m staying here in central ND after I leave the Air Force. I’d rather have cold weather and decent neighbors.

Comment by Blano
2007-09-28 11:18:42

I wouldn’t mind retiring to the family farm in west Michigan someday, especially from late spring to Thanksgiving. Something to be said for not having to lock your doors just to go on a beer run.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-09-28 20:58:01

You come into the world with no teeth and than you leave this world with no teeth .

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-28 09:22:42

“Some say the efforts are a creative way to generate buzz.”

They’re right. The free wine would generate a good buzz!

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-28 09:23:06

All is not well in MormonLand. Somebody must have received foreclosure notice and took out frustration on a poor defenseless animal.
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=1882555

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-28 09:24:20

Get your foreclosure notice, beat up your grandma?

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=1882536

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-28 09:27:05

A well known TV personality in Salt Lake being prosecuted for mortgage fraud. My mom told me about that last night. Here is link. I found those other ’stories’ while looking for this one. Enjoy watching a celebrity (even if in a localized area) go down.

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=1868459

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-28 09:29:26

Oh wait, reading the article more carefully. The ‘celebrity’ was a victim and is going to get dismissed since he will ‘testify’ against the real criminals. Yeah, right. He is at least guilty of being a greedy #$##@## and deserves to take a big financial hit at least. The court will decide.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-28 09:32:39

Attention All Grandmas: If you don’t water your lawn (or are a deadbeat flipper grandma), don’t answer the door when the police come. They might beat you up.

http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=148&sid=1444771

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-28 09:35:14

Some stories are too funny to make up.

 
Comment by reuven
2007-09-28 09:35:47

“‘Buyers are very picky right now,’ agreed Louise Baker, supervising broker for Long & Foster’s Christiansburg office, who on Friday cited 164 single-family detached homes on the market in Christiansburg.

I’m not really sure if buyers are any pickier now than they’ve ever been. What’s was happening is, last year and before, a very significant percentage–perhaps the majority in some markets–of people moving house titles around weren’t really “buyers”. They were get-rich-quickers who had nothing to lose and could qualify for any amount of credit.

Take these people out of the picture and replace them with only those who actually need to buy a home, and that would more than account for the crash.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-09-28 09:54:14

The Dollar is about to go under .70, vs the Euro…

$lip, $liding away…

Comment by Ernest
2007-09-28 10:32:18

There must be 50 ways to leave your dollar…

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-09-28 09:56:41

“If you’re buying upscale property in Western North Carolina, you can expect to be feted — in a big way.”

They need to change “feted” to “screwed”!

 
Comment by BJ
2007-09-28 10:23:06

During the peak of the Housing Bubble I recall seeing an interview with a young couple who said they had been out bid several times on homes they wanted to buy.
This time their offer of $675K was accepted and they were elated!
Back then, there were numerous interviews like this
I wish some one would do follow-up interviews and see how they feel now

Comment by DC_Too
2007-09-28 10:59:07

Oh, I can beat that one. I remember, vividly, deciding to walk into an open house I noticed whilst on a walk one Saturday in early 2005. 100 year-old, three bed, 1,000 square foot row house w/tiny yard. Location not bad, but way too ghetto for the price.

It sold then and there to two women, who embraced each other, moaning and wailing because their $755,000 offer had been accepted. I couldn’t help but think then, that their emotional response to getting ripped off was more appropriate to, say, two people whose child had just been saved from drowning.

Go figure.

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-09-28 10:32:48

BJ - they are bent over double with a hurting gut and bawling their eyes out. They probably couldn’t do an interview. Their pyschiatrist or therapist would have to be the spokesman. Or maybe it was so easy to get into a house (complete with toxic mortgage), that a caveman can do it.

Comment by reuven
2007-09-28 11:33:01

My guess is that these people are more *angry* than sad. And probably blaming other people. Like the press for talking about a housing bubble, or the government for not trying to price-fix the housing market even more than they already do. Being sad would be to admit you got taken.

 
 
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