Betting On An Uncertain Boom
The Press Register reports from Alabama. “Two years of slow sales have killed many new condo development plans and put others on hold. The inventory glut — almost 3,000 units for sale on Alabama’s Gulf Coast, has kept bankers away and Realtors hunting for buyers. ‘I think it’s going to be an investor market for the next 12 months, and we’re going to see some pretty serious bottom feeding,’ predicted broker Arthur Hood in Birmingham.”
“It could be two years before the market changes, and that’s barring any major hurricane, according to Hood. ‘The market couldn’t continue going like it was,’ he added. ‘We saw stuff literally triple in price’ as few as two years ago.”
The News Journal from Florida. “Like many home builders, Dallas-based Centex Homes is trying to remain profitable, particularly in the Volusia-Flagler market, in the face of a disastrous housing market.”
“Its Jacksonville-based North Florida division is pressing on with three condominium communities in Flagler County, company officials said earlier this month.”
“‘We’ve taken early actions to improve our competitive position in every local market,’ said Carl Holman, operational marketing manager in Jacksonville. ‘This includes evaluating every project in every market and making prudent long-term decisions.’”
“‘We tried to put some deals there that didn’t work out,’ said Brett Lundequam, president of Centex’s Orlando division. ‘For every 10 projects we put our name on, maybe only two will stick.’”
“Other home builders besides Centex are backing out of land deals, said Costa and commercial Realtor Roger Baumgartner. ‘A lot of builders are just walking away, absolutely,’ Baumgartner said. ‘That’s not a good thing.’”
The News Press from Florida. “With its new advertising campaign and attention-grabbing slogan — ‘The End is Near,’ Engle Homes is spreading the word that the days of declining prices for its existing housing stock are reaching an end.”
“The print and electronic media ads are intended to make clear that rock-bottom has been hit and the existing inventory is shrinking, said Bruce J. Hershey II, VP of sales and marketing. ‘Once it’s gone, it’s gone,’ he said. ‘It’s a buyers market. The market is going to come back and once it does and there’s no more inventory, you’re not going to be able to come into a sales center and negotiate. Prices will never be lower. Incentives will never be higher. The end is near. Now’s the time to buy.’”
“Q: Why did Engle Homes initiate the campaign?”
“A: ‘There are a lot of people out there asking, ‘Should I buy now, should I wait, are prices going to continue to drop?’ The answer is no, it’s over, prices are not going to go down any further. Incentives are not going to get any better. Now’s the time to buy. That’s what we want to make sure that we educate the customers about — that it’s not going lower. It can’t. I can’t do it anymore. We’ve reduced the prices of the homes as low as we can. … Forget about the bad press, because there are a lot of good things.’”
“Construction superintendent Dan Bickes was glad to leave the Michigan rust belt five years ago for a six-figure job running condominium projects in Florida.”
“But after working at three different condo sites in Volusia and Flagler counties, he can’t find a construction job that will pay him $100,000 or more, so Bickes and his wife, Dixie, are packing their bags for an Atlanta suburb.”
“‘There are no more high-rise projects coming on line this year, and it doesn’t look like there will be any more for years and years, so we’re getting out,’ Bickes said. ‘It’s very disheartening.’”
“The Bickeses are not alone. More than 13,000 people left Volusia and Flagler counties for other states last year, twice the flow of earlier years, according to the Internal Revenue Service.”
“‘My feeling is there’s a big potential problem in the soft real estate market,’ said Chris McCarty, who supervises a statewide consumer confidence survey at the University of Florida. ‘A key part of our economy is based on people being able to move. If people can’t move, then the economy suffers.’”
The Wall Street Journal. “For almost a century, Florida has been a magnet for mobile Americans. The state’s plentiful sunshine and open space has attracted “snowbirds” fleeing winter, retirees living out the last chapter of their lives and down-on-their-luck workers in search of jobs.”
“Florida has become a less-appealing destination. Moving company Atlas Van Lines brought 6,700 families into Florida last year and took 8,000 out, the first time it has moved more out than in. The number of people from other states who switch to a Florida driver’s license is down more than 8% from last year.”
“‘Growth is what Florida is known for,’ says Carl Hiaasen, the Miami Herald columnist. “Florida is in the business of cramming people into real estate for absurd prices.’”
“A few months ago, Randy Quinones, a retired plumber in New Hampshire, was gearing up to leave the chilly Northeast and live out his days in Florida. He got ready to put his home on the market…but Florida housing prices caused him to look elsewhere.”
“‘It didn’t fit our budget, so we didn’t do it,’ he says: Instead of Gainesville or Ocala where prices were $250,000 to $300,000, Mr. Quinones moved in May into a home outside Knoxville, Tenn., that cost $207,000.”
The Herald Tribune from Florida. “The conventional wisdom is that booming growth for Florida is as sure as orange blossoms in spring and hurricanes in summer.”
“But some economists — armed with fresh anecdotal evidence — think that, at least in the short term, high insurance rates, high property taxes and heady competition from other retirement states is taking some of the wind out of the Sunshine State’s sails.”
“The old axiom says that Florida picks up 1,000 residents each day, but evidence is mounting that this long-lived assumption is no longer valid.”
“Earlier this year, Allied Van Lines reported that outbound residents outnumbered inbound for both Florida and California.’We have Realtors taking Floridians by the busload to buy in North Carolina,’ said consultant Jack McCabe.”
“Chuck and Linda Edwards are trying to snip their Southwest Florida ties while setting up shop in a rural South Carolina town that they expect to boom. They really fit into two categories because they are disenchanted Southwest Florida real estate investors as well as half-backs.”
“They moved to Bradenton from Maryland in 1993 and have spent the last 13 years investing in houses, rehabilitating them and renting them. They have done 40 in Southwest Florida, and so far, have made money on every one.”
“The only problem is that they have 11 in Sarasota and Manatee counties left to sell.”
“Late last year, the Edwardses pulled up stakes and moved to Georgetown, S.C. They will soon list a newly tuned-up, 3,500-square-foot house for $249,900. Then they will take on a bigger project: a house half-wrecked by a large pecan tree’s limbs.”
“‘Prices are pretty cheap here,’ said Chuck Edwards.”
“Sarasota Realtor Diane Christner is charged with selling the Edwardses’ leftover local listings. The couple’s previous residence, completely renovated with 140 feet on the Braden River, is listed for just under $400,000.”
“‘It has been on the market since spring,’ Christner said. ‘Obviously, we started up higher, around $500,000.’”
The Florida Trend. “Whether chased north by the heat, the hurricanes or property-tax and insurance costs, more Floridians are buying second homes in western North Carolina — or packing permanently for the mountains.”
“And Florida home builders are following their customers north. Seeking to diversify operations as they ride out Florida’s housing downturn, the builders are buying up mountaintops and developing them by the thousands of acres.”
“But they are betting on an uncertain boom. For in these cloud-laced mountains, Florida history is repeating itself in a dozen different ways. In some areas, speculators have lost money on development deals that proved too good to be true.”
“‘You see many of the same people operating under different business names in both markets, and the same speculators speculating in both markets,’ Western Carolina University history professor Richard D. Starnes says. In the 1930s, he says, ‘When the Florida market crashed, the Asheville market followed.’”
“Having experienced a seedy side to the housing boom, western North Carolina is beginning to see there can be a downside, too. Asheville-area counties that had bucked the national housing downturn began to see a slowdown this summer that in some cases is tied directly to Florida’s.”
“Every real estate broker seems to have stories of buyers who couldn’t close on the purchase of a mountain home because they couldn’t sell a home in Florida.”
“In Asheville, broker Joe Grady advises sellers not to make deals that are contingent upon a home sale in Florida. He’s even advising his brokers not to bother with Florida customers who have to sell their homes in Florida: ‘Do not get them in your car; do not play chauffeur; do not give them the tour,’ he says. ‘In our experience, it is taking them a long, long time to sell.’”
“Just ask Daniel Longen, and fiancée Susan Brady. Last year, with their Naples home on the market, the couple bought a home in the western Asheville suburbs, looking forward to four seasons.”
“When their Naples home languished on the market, ‘I woke up in the middle of the night one night and said we’re not in too bad shape today, but this could get to be a really bad situation,’ Longen says. The couple decided to put the Asheville home up for sale, too, and to live in whichever one didn’t sell. Two weeks later, they headed back to Naples.”
“‘I’m disappointed, but not terribly because Naples isn’t that bad, and people really seem to be working on the things we were critical of, like homeowners insurance and taxes,’ Longen says. ‘But those mountain vistas sure were nice.’”
‘Mike Graham, a professional wrestler turned real estate man, was driving when he saw a sign advertising waterfront villas for sale. Asking price? A mere $69,000.’
‘So he followed the signs toward the Gulf of Mexico and stumbled onto one of the more interesting residential projects under way in Pasco County: The transformation of a rundown mobile home park, not with pricey condominiums but with affordable - and unusual - modular homes.’
‘One of the most popular signs in all of Bonita Springs can be found outside almost every strip center along Bonita Beach Road and U.S. 41. The sign: FOR LEASE.’
‘Andrew DeSalvo, a commercial real estate broker with Premier Properties, said that while there is no need to push the panic button yet — the amount of available retail/ office space in Bonita Springs is cause for some concern.’
‘Vacancies are at 7 percent. That’s not a whole lot,’ DeSalvo said. ‘When you add in the retail space under construction, it’s about 9 percent and that’s getting up there.’
‘The transformation of a rundown mobile home park, not with pricey condominiums but with affordable - and unusual - modular homes.’
Mobile conversions
So perhaps it IS time to “push the panic button”? I mean really, who would have thought that commercial real estate would follow residential down after a lag?
Bwahaha… I just noticed this guys former profession.
Pro wrestler to REwhore? 
So funny, I thought I had seen it all. I guess the only one’s left are “Crack Head to RE agent” and perhaps (this is just underreported, IMHO), stripper to RE agent.
LOL.
Actually, the most pro-development commissioner currently sitting on the Hillsborough County Board of County Commissioners, Brian Blair, is a former pro wrestler. His behavior reminds me a lot of Ric Flair, except at least Flair was entertaining.
Arthur “Robbing” Hood, and his merry band of investors have quite the bottom fetish…
“Two years of slow sales have killed many new condo development plans and put others on hold. The inventory glut — almost 3,000 units for sale on Alabama’s Gulf Coast, has kept bankers away and Realtors hunting for buyers. ‘I think it’s going to be an investor market for the next 12 months, and we’re going to see some pretty serious bottom feeding,’ predicted broker Arthur Hood in Birmingham.”
The thing not mentioned in this article is that the average price of these condo’s is around $500k. And many of these condo developments advertise prices of up to (and over) $1mil+. That is absolute insanity for Ala. I think this is another way over developed area on its way to a big-time crash. No way can these prices stay this high.
The Gulf Coast is in the Mobile metro area. Mobile itself is far more reasonable and there are some very, very nice neighborhoods here selling for far less than these prices. And they are much better built houses at that.
Living la vida Mendoza…
The Mendoza Line is an informal term used in baseball for when a position player’s batting average falls below .200 (some say .215). It is supposedly the boundary between extremely poor and merely below-average offensive production. Some consider it to be the offensive threshold below which a player’s presence in the Major Leagues cannot be justified despite his defensive abilities.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mendoza_Line
“‘We tried to put some deals there that didn’t work out,’ said Brett Lundequam, president of Centex’s Orlando division. ‘For every 10 projects we put our name on, maybe only two will stick.’”
“That’s what we want to make sure that we educate the customers about — that it’s not going lower. It can’t. I can’t do it anymore. We’ve reduced the prices of the homes as low as we can”.
This fellow is the one that’s in for an “education” and it is way over due. This general attitude is every where in real estate.
Mr. Hershey sounds as if he thought up that exemplary bit of hard sell on the drive home from his local pawn shop.
“that it’s not going lower. It can’t.”
Hey stupid, of course it can go lower, it will keep going lower until things start selling and prices make sense. What he means is he hopes it won’t go lower.
TAKE YOUR MEDICINE!
Mr Hershey Highway will be getting a visit from Mr Joshua Tree
This guy is scraping the bottom of the GF barrel, purging the last vestiges of stupid-money from the RE sales market. I think it’ll help speed things along, and I see it as a plus.
You mean, it can’t go lower because then you won’t make any money?
Where on EARTH does it say that RE is the road to unearned riches for the entire world? If it was, there would be no need for any company doing anything but RE work; we should all just crowd into that sector because, as everyone knows, it is the ONLY thing that can never lose value/be sold below cost.
Welcome to the world of business you a**hole.. You overpaid for your “supply”, expecting your consumers to bail you out when there is record inventory is just idiotic.
The attitude that “It’s RE, I can’t lose money” needs to go the way of the dodo. I can’t wait for that to grip the general population; only then we will truly see RE move back to historic norms. As long as idiots like this are out there, convinced that there is NO possible way to lose money on RE, we will continue to have a problem.
It would be awesome if one year from now we can read a GF sob story directly attributable to Mr. Hershey’s baseless sales pitch.
GF 2008: “But the guy at Engle Homes told me RE could never go any lower…say, how’s that bailout coming along anyway?”
“If it was, there would be no need for any company doing anything but RE work;”
Exactly, and also why would any body work. You could just keep buying houses and selling them for a huge profit and then do it all over and over.
Exactly my point. If there was truly a “can’t lose” money making scheme like RE has claimed to be for the past few years, there would be no need for any other profession or investment.
Why invest in the stock market when you can leverage RE 100% and get a “promised” 20% YOY appreciation? There is no need for other investment classes, no need for any other job, no need for anything… Just buy and sell RE to each other at more and more inflated prices, using the bank’s money each time to get richer and richer.
How stupid is the general populace of this country to think that something like this is even POSSIBLE, let alone that this is the way the world truly works.
November 2007.
“Okay. I really mean it this time. Prices CANNOT go lower, this the ABSOLUTE bottom. I’m not kidding. Are you listening, you ridiculous, ignorant buyers? I’m not giving these houses away!!! AARRAAGHH!!”
I just went out to Engle homes website and tried to call one of the developments and the number they show is no longer in service. I guess they have to save money anyway they can to offer these “great deals”.
“They moved to Bradenton from Maryland in 1993 and have spent the last 13 years investing in houses, rehabilitating them and renting them. They have done 40 in Southwest Florida, and so far, have made money on every one.”
“The only problem is that they have 11 in Sarasota and Manatee counties left to sell.”
“Late last year, the Edwardses pulled up stakes and moved to Georgetown, S.C. They will soon list a newly tuned-up, 3,500-square-foot house for $249,900. Then they will take on a bigger project: a house half-wrecked by a large pecan tree’s limbs.”
“‘Prices are pretty cheap here,’ said Chuck Edwards.”
“Sarasota Realtor Diane Christner is charged with selling the Edwardses’ leftover local listings. The couple’s previous residence, completely renovated with 140 feet on the Braden River, is listed for just under $400,000.”
“‘It has been on the market since spring,’ Christner said. ‘Obviously, we started up higher, around $500,000.’”
It’s like watching a compulsive gambler chasing his loss at the craps table by going to a new casino, isn’t it?
Seven out, line away
Pay the donts (contrarians)
I suspect the losses they are going to take on the eleven houses currently up for sale will wipe out the gains they made on the forty that sold prior to the bust.
“‘It didn’t fit our budget, so we didn’t do it,’ he says: Instead of Gainesville or Ocala where prices were $250,000 to $300,000, Mr. Quinones moved in May into a home outside Knoxville, Tenn., that cost $207,000.”
Is it really that cheap to live in FL? You can’t even get into a starter home (SFR) in San Diego for under $400,000. I guess FL housing comes with a hurricane-risk discount, which is apparently larger than an earthquake-risk discount?
No place in this country should starter homes be $400,000. No place! That is all bad lending. It angers me even to read about this stupidity. Starter homes in this economy should still be $100,000 - $150,000. $250,000 for a house is still a lot of money.
Beverly Hills, Rancho Santa Fe, Martha’s Vineyard … Everywhere else? Not a chance! Even a $250K home for a starter would require a solid $100K annual salary.
“Beverly Hills, Rancho Santa Fe, Martha’s Vineyard”
Get real! These are not starter neighborhoods.
My point exactly. $250K - 500K is not a starter price range!
Not if you can fit five families of illegals into it.
They can split the costs……….no problem.
You keep thinking this is SINGLE FAMILY housing.
That is so old school.
Even that would be stretching it! Add a couple of infant-toddler children and day care? Doubt it.
No kidding…$15 hr is about $32K a year times 3 or so= $100K
I also thought banks would lend 4x your income if you had no CC debt, the cars were paid off, and you had safe drivers rates.
Actually, those homes are worth half that, if you go by rent multiples.
I know someone who bought a 3/2 in a nice NW neighborhood from the bank for $60,001 about four years ago.
The neighborhood comps were selling up in $350’s in 2006, still listing in $200’s now … what a joke.
A 3/1.5 rents for $1100 in G’ville–if you’re lucky! $1200 or so for a 3/3, maybe a little more (people will pay maybe $50/mo more for their own bath).
Reminds me of the condo conversion on SW 24th Ave in the county (next to Sugarfoot! there were shootings there in the 1990s) which rented for $400/mo in 2005 and which the new owners are desperately trying to flip for $80K a unit in 2007, 0% down, etc, etc.
Duh. The jobs in Florida don’t pay near as much as San Diego. If you lived in Florida, 250-300k doesn’t seem so cheap. The insurance and taxes are also part of the equation, but not as much as the jobs.
“‘I’m disappointed, but not terribly because Naples isn’t that bad, and people really seem to be working on the things we were critical of, like homeowners insurance and taxes,’ Longen says. ‘But those mountain vistas sure were nice.’”
You will sorely miss those mountains when Naples is under water, not just in a financial sense…
I am getting phone calls from Floridians as well who want to relocate to the Atlanta area…I too ask them if they have a home to sell in Florida before being able to buy here..if they say yes…I tell them to call back when they have a contract….can’t waste your time with something that isn’t going anywhere… I know too many people who are so under water there its actually scary when you consider that they were at peak just a few years ago….
“The end is near.”
There’s a cheerful quote for Sunday morning. Spoken by the VP for marketing for Engle homes, as part of a last ditch marketing effort.
Sounds like the Florida market has seized up…though I like the Florida flippers who’s made money on every one of the 40 houses they’ve ‘improved’, except the 11 they can’t sell, and have left behind as they head for NC. 11 unsold houses should be enough to put a little crimp in their cash flow.
I can give you the “on the ground” (as can others), FL has pretty much seized up. The only people who can qualify for MTGs are already in homes, or, like myself, priced out at the current prices. The starter home market is still trying to find itself (as was mentioned above, 350-400K was a starter home in Palm Beach until just 2 years ago); however, it still has MUCH further to fall..
The market is just gridlocked, and is going to get worse. Lenders continue to pull out of FL, insurance seems to continue upwards, and the tax situation is a joke; and does not appear to have any chance to getting fixed in the next few years.
I am waiting until the homes I want are 100-125/sq/ft (off the water) or 150-175/sq/ft (with deep water off intercostal dock). As soon as that happens, I will pull the trigger.
My other problem is that I am looking for a home in the 1900-2400 sq/ft range; which, unfortunately, are not on the prime lots in most neighborhoods. I am NOT going to spend even 100/sq/ft to live on the traintracks (like I do now), however, to get away from the tracks (in my development) I have to go into the “mansion” section that are all 3000/sq/ft+. I don’t want a house that big, even if it is 100/sq/ft. Shoot, this home (2000/sq/ft) is around 250/mo in electric (and I have a nat gas stove and water heater). I just don’t really want to AC all that empty space, but I don’t want to live on the tracks either.
Another example of homes built for a demographic that DOES not exist.
Considering that TOA/Engle’s stock is at a fresh 52 week low and dropped over %15 on Friday, he should keep his mouth shut and try to sell more than 25 a month.
Also, anybody notice what an absolute, slow-pitch, puff piece this was? Almost made me puke. I wonder if the “journalist” who wrote it knows that the company is almost de-listed/bankrupt?
“It can’t. I can’t do it anymore. We’ve reduced the prices of the homes as low as we can.”
These are desperate hand-wringing times. Lowering the price is not a matter of choice anymore. It’s about survival. It’s about competing for scraps and minimizing negative margins. With the attitude expressed here, it may be the end for Engle.
Looked at its financials and I’m surprised it’s still in business. I linked the chart below. Other builders are following the same pattern.
http://tinyurl.com/yo9uje
Dammit, stay away from Knoxville! It sucks! When you think Knoxville, think ‘Deliverance’. Stay away or squeel like a pig!
Amazing … Gainesville is about the polar opposite (for the South). I wonder if he didn’t do much research and kind of picked a house out of a catalog.
Ocala has a good ole boy feel to it, but they tell me you have to go out into the county, like on the backroads between Gainesville and Lakeland, and then you will find REAL “Bubba” territory. (Even driving through these areas creeped me out.)
There are some pretty scary rednecks in Florida too … maybe that’s why I stay in the city. Indigent Blacks with giant attitudes are closer to my comfort zone. But being from the Northeast I still don’t really “get” the Jesus-worshipping political and social complacency. Have some aspirations! Fight for something! Please!
“A few months ago, Randy Quinones, a retired plumber in New Hampshire, was gearing up to leave the chilly Northeast and live out his days in Florida. He got ready to put his home on the market…but Florida housing prices caused him to look elsewhere.”
“‘It didn’t fit our budget, so we didn’t do it,’ he says: Instead of Gainesville or Ocala where prices were $250,000 to $300,000, Mr. Quinones moved in May into a home outside Knoxville, Tenn., that cost $207,000.”
Wow. Wow. Wow.
This man was planning on moving to Gainesville or Slowcala, to do nothing but spend money for the next 30 years (plumbers in the NE make good money), but the outsized RE prices that Bosshardt and the other Realwhores have been crowing about sent him looking elsewhere.
Wow.
Wow.
We’re f—ed.
…but they’ve been telling us that ridiculously expensive homes were good for the economy.
“They” are wrong. As we will see played out in slo-mo for the next 5 years. Kind of like “high gas prices” would be good for the economy!
Tell me how this is a good thing? Now we all pay more for the same stuff, and have FAR more tax and insurance to keep the same stuff, and pay far more interest on… You guessed it… The same stuff…
And that’s good for the economy?
I just realized—people with money to blow going away, and all the HELOCs among professional blacks and whites in G’ville (I know a black guy who tried to start an Ebay business with HELOC money, which failed, while white professors are driving Porsches, and not Boxsters either, which can only mean one thing), Gainesville unwittingly ate its own seed corn!
As Dave Ramsey says: hope you like the car!
“With its new advertising campaign and attention-grabbing slogan — ‘The End is Near,’ Engle Homes is spreading the word that the days of declining prices for its existing housing stock are reaching an end.”
Why didn’t they just call it “The End is Nigh” ?
“Whether chased north by the heat, the hurricanes or property-tax and insurance costs, more Floridians are buying second homes in western North Carolina — or packing permanently for the mountains.”
Floridians are deseprately scrambling to get out of Florida and heading for the hills. Is this the reason prices in NC are bucking the trend?
Yep. Lot’s of Florida half-backs in NC now.
“Nothin’ could be finer than to be in Carolina.”
For now. But my wife an I are not the only ones who have discovered (or who soon will discover) how nice it is here. Many more are coming.
What are Florida half-backs?
A Northerner who initialy moves to Florida, looks at the cost of home prices, taxes, and insurance, then decides to move ‘half way back’ home and ends up settling in the Carolinas.
Thank you mrktMaven FL.
Good job market. Many jobs are hard to offshore as they are niche research positions that even India cannot find talent for. At least, at the moment this is true. Diversified work force, low property taxes, cheap property that even a Wally World manager could afford without dual income.
‘Once it’s gone, it’s gone,’ he said. ‘It’s a buyers market. The market is going to come back and once it does and there’s no more inventory, you’re not going to be able to come into a sales center and negotiate. Prices will never be lower. Incentives will never be higher. The end is near. Now’s the time to buy.’”
For the love of Jeesh! This statement had me spit-fire, red-faced, hair-flaming angry!
You know what really twists my knicker? Some fool out there believes this devil of a lie! grrr.
This is your LAST oppertunity to overpay for a home and we mean it !
It sounded a lot like a sermon, kind of like what I see on some of the evangelical cable channels. I give him credit for at least knowing what America’s real religion is.
I’m two hours west of Asheville and it is different here.
IF people in Fl. can sell, they DO relocate here and will continue to do so.
However, there are NO jobs since real estate tanked, thankfully.
Soooo…you better be retired.
Floridians make up 75% of my business. The locals are great people. There is nothing to do as far as restaurants or clubs, dry county.
The mountains are beautiful, unless you look at the one that has been gutted by idiots to put up condos. The project made it to the clearing land stage and died. It’s just an eyesore.
We seem to depend more on retirees. The only jobs are fast food or Walmart ugh. Factories have all but gone overseas.
We didn’t have too much of a bubble except for the Floridia people and those that price just for them. They think prices are cheap. My house almost doubled in price in ten years, from 90k to 175k according to the last appraisal. Not too bubblicious.
Floridians are ok if they leave their $hit at the stateline. I too am a ‘halfback’.
Funny thing is that everyone that buys here think they want to live miles from town on a gravel road, that’s country, but….they forget that 2-4 trips down a mountain and 30 miles from town gets OLD fast.
They also buy these friken chalets. They are nice to vacation in, maybe, but to live in full time, no. But….they’ll learn.
I know many speculators turning in keys to the banks so prices will come down.
Certain segments have experienced a bubble, but existing homes really didn’t go up much.
Enjoy!
“My house almost doubled in price in ten years, from 90k to 175k according to the last appraisal. Not too bubblicious.”
Your house = 7.0% annual appreciation. Wage YOY increase in North Carolina in the last 10 years? I don’t think wage can match half of this increase!
Cinch
Agreed about wages, being self employed has it’s advantages.
Unlike most here, I keep expenses low and have rental income.
It will be a long cold winter here for most, but I’d like to see it get back to the pace of 10 years ago, even if my income goes down a little.
For the post below about gravel roads….private subdivisions do not get any State or County money. They don’t plow in winter or fix potholes. Where I live we have a fund for that. $100 per homeowner per year for roadwork.
I would strongly suggest renting for a year anywhere you move unless you already know the area. Too many people have gorgeous houses that are ruined by dirt and gravel roads and now WISH they bought elsewhere.
“Funny thing is that everyone that buys here think they want to live miles from town on a gravel road.”
You forgot to mention, that after “roughing” it for a little while by living on a gravel road, they start demanding that the road be paved, which, of course, raises us locals’ property taxes, etc.
And just wait until they learn what the phrase “Nutrient Management” means!
Thanks for the anecdotal view. Those are valuable and waaaay more likely to show what’s really going on.
from wbmz’s post a few slots above
This fellow is the one that’s in for an “education” and it is way over due. This general attitude is every where in real estate.
I think this fellow needs a personal visit from NNVbroker with an extra special Joshua Tree to gain that special education he so desparately needs.
There were some comments about casinos and who visits them yesterday. I visit them for the purpose of doing an unknown evaluation (just a regular customer). I get paid my fee. I do what is needed. Many sorrow folks losing a lot of money. But the casinos are clean. Sometimes busy, sometimes not.
“The End is Near”
ROFLMAO
OT–humble pardons. We’re taking a Sunday stroll about the beautiful Wiscosin byways, looking at three properties today (not to worry–no hurry here!)
I’ll let ya know what’s happening in WI later today–happy Sunday!
We’ll at least get to see some beautiful leaves changing colors!
Best,
Leigh
“I’ll let ya know what’s happening in WI later today–happy Sunday!’
I’m hoping that later today in Wisconsin there are a lot of crying Cheeseheads but I doubt it.
Packers: 31
Vikings: 20
I have a buddy that is a land developer in western NC. He said that lots stopped selling almost 2 years ago and are starting to head down in price…It is not different there.
Ditto here. Things sold well until Spring 2006. That’s almost exactly when the small, local builders here bought a bunch of vacant lots and started putting up spec homes. Now they sit empty on the market. The builders couldn’t have timed it worse if they had tried! Add in the normal resale volume (nobody lives/stays healthy forever), and total inventory is at a record high.
You have a buddy…that’s nice. The overall trend is outpacing your buddy.
Florida has turned away all newcomers with their ridiculous Save our Homes tax system. Do away with it, tax all homes equally and then real estate will start selling again. Historically, people moved to FL because it was cheaper to live, not because of the sunshine. Hot and humid 300 days/yr. is not enticing. Thats why you have snowbirds Jan., Feb.and march and they’re gone. Floridians hate them, but their money and tax dollars kept full time living cheap. Cheap is what attracts full time retirees. Lose the retirees and snowbirds and what have you left? Companies with jobs used to move there, why? because they could pay employees $15/hr. I see that changing. $ 350,000 homes with a 5-6 thousand dollar tax bill plus 3 grand for insurance, whats inviting about that? oh thats right sunshine.
Well, I do agree that SOH now presents a HUGE barrier to entry for snowbirds; and yes, MANY will be pushed away (or out, those that live here already part time are truly being scr*w*d over by this system) because of the 2 tier tax; that system has been in place for a long time now, and homes used to sell.
FLs problems, IMHO, for retirees are the following (in no particular order):
Insane home prices (compared to other snowbird areas)
Traffic/pace of life in S. FL is NUTS, I cannot picture anyone wanting to retire into NYC, which is pretty much FTL and south has become. Palm Beach has become Long Island South. Martin County still is a little sleepy, but not for long if the birdies keep coming.
Insurance is VERY high
Taxes are slanted sharply against the snowbird, and the recent run up has made that shockingly clear (like identical homes with 5X disparite tax bills because of SOH status and year purchased).
Bias against snowbirds. Snowbirds are hated in S. FL; nobody wants them here, which is made more and more clear to my parents every time they come to visit (snowbird age). Most businesses now think there is more money to be made off local yuppies, and the locals hate the yuppies and the snowbirds (probably more the snowbird though, the venom towards them is shocking!).
Basically, it seems to come down to, “We don’t want you here” and “We are going to tax the life out of you if you come and make it as uncomfortable for you as possible”. FL has killed the goose that laid the golden egg, and will have to either reinvent itself as a major hub of business, or will have to resign itself to being the winter retreat for those from up north. Unfortunatly, right now, it’s neither of those 2 things; it’s in that “awkward stage”.
I am a doomer, but not so much that I think FL is going to die. I love living here, and can’t picture myself moving anywhere else. However, the system down here does have to change, and I think that the Snowbirds, at least for S. FL, are a fad that is quickly dying out. We shall see if I am right, but that’s my general feeling on the ground here in Palm Beach.
Michael, I, too, love living in Florida. Life is waaaay slower here in Cocoa Beach than down your way and has not changed much in the last 20 years. Our little town wasn’t able to build too much during the boom years because of lack of land and height and density limits. Our City fathers wisely limited new structures to 4 stories and density to 12 units per acre which severely changed the dynamic for developments within the city limits. Population has been stuck at 12,000 since 1975. Our prices did zoom up with the rest of Florida but are now plunging like the rest of the state. I have already seen direct ocean condos go for $178/sq.ft. Meanwhile, life goes on pretty much as it always has. I see the same faces at the coffee shop, the golf course and in the surf when the waves are good. The fish have not been affected by the bubble and there is still only one traffic light between the house and the office. I’ll never leave.
I agree with you mike. arent you on palm beach post blog? they dont accept my messages anymore. i kept trashing those real estate experts that thought prices will never go down. i live in boca and there is alot of blood on the streets. allstate has dump alot of people and want to raise their rates 41%. people complain about taxes, but they brought at 500,000, they should pay at 500,000 rate. it is the insurance that is making a killing or making up the difference from katrina losses and horrible infrastructure that was created in south florida. i care less about the snowbirds either. they complain about everything and dont want to pay for no services. what do they expect, nothing for free. they pay taxes left and right the northeast.
florida should be heading back to pre 2001 days by 2010-11. it takes as long to create a monster and then watch it destroy itself.
The Sunshine State? I have lived in Florida about 15 Years off and on. I always wondered how they managed to keep this as our state motto.
It rains here more than anywhere I have ever been.
I just bought a New Motorcycle 4 mos ago and I’ve got to ride it about 10 times and still dodge the Rain, Lightning , and Now love Bugs ! My New TV just got blown up by Lightning this week and the Neighbors House caught on Fire.
I don’t even watch the Weather Channel anymore. I know what is is . 70% chance of rain. Month of october.
PS . I Love it when People come Here on Vacation and go to the Beach and it rains everyday for 2 weeks!
GOTTA LOVE IT !
Try Houston. You’ll get more rain AND heat.
We have the snowbirds here in Palm Desert, too. We’re all enjoying the last few days before they descend on us. Because they are on vacation, they don’t understand that the rest of us have work and lives to take care of. The so-called greatest generation are the last to have it made - great pensions and health care and SS.
“Save our homes” was a huge mistake. It protects older, wealthier people, as the expense of the next generation. It is comparable to social security in its affects. In the early years it looks great but long term creates a huge problem. The only solution in the long run is to reduce benefits in social security and cut prices in housing.
In Naples we have people living in houses that they pay $4,000. in property tax on due to SOH. They think their property is worth $3,000,000. If purchased at that level the result is a $42,000. a year property tax for the new owner. The state has a geriatric time bomb hanging over it as oldsters pass on and their heirs get the property and the new tax appraisal. During the boom there were flippers stupid enough the buy and hope to sell in 18 months prior to the new property tax apraisal resets. The realestate agents only supplied the present SOH tax not what the tax would be for the poor new buyer. Now the flippers are stuck.. Few new buyers are now foolish enough to take on the high reset appraisals and resulting huge tax increase so the price must go down.
“The End is Near?” This guy must be reading this blog. We were discussing this phrase, or rather it’s more common form “The End is Nigh,” the other day. Leave it to a developer to scope out bubble blogs, looking for any ray of hope . . . or an original idea.
Actually, an advertising campaign usually takes a long time to put together, so maybe we are psychics here, and picked up on his bad vibes.
From the WSJ article (last paragraphs).
“But none of that makes a difference to Mel Graves. He sold his New Hampshire software and advertising systems support company and moved to Florida in 2002. He spent $275,000 on a house near Sarasota on the Gulf Coast. In 2004, when Hurricane Charley bore down on their home, Mr. Graves and his wife left for their son’s place in Tennessee. When the hurricane was past, Mr. Graves returned to Florida and sold the house for almost double what he paid for it.
“My wife said ‘No way am I staying here,’” he says.”
Change the name and the destination state and the article could be about us.
The Graves have decided to settle in Tennessee.
‘Once it’s gone, it’s gone,’ …prices will never be lower. Incentives will never be higher. The end is near. Now’s the time to buy.’”
Ahh, the deliciously fragrant desperation simply steaming off those idiotic words.
I command you to drivel more, Mr. REtard, for my amusement.
WNC: A great place to play golf and sight-see, but wouldn’t want to live there.
“With its new advertising campaign and attention-grabbing slogan — ‘The End is Near,’ Engle Homes is spreading the word that the days of declining prices for its existing housing stock are reaching an end.”
I’m guessing that by the time the lawsuits start flying over such blatantly false and unsupportable assertions, Engle Homes will be insolvent anyway.
They are pulling out all the psychological stops, trying everything to get out from under, by burying the great unwashed public in their inventory that i’ll assure you, is nowhere near the end…
Was he pile driving, when he chanced upon this?
‘Mike Graham, a professional wrestler turned real estate man, was driving when he saw a sign advertising waterfront villas for sale. Asking price? A mere $69,000.’
‘So he followed the signs toward the Gulf of Mexico and stumbled onto one of the more interesting residential projects under way in Pasco County: The transformation of a rundown mobile home park, not with pricey condominiums but with affordable - and unusual - modular homes.’