Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For October 6, 2007
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Let the buyer rejoice: Home sales, prices fall
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2003929200_homesales06.html
haha .. Real estate prices fall? Yeah, sure. We’re supposed to believe that.
Come on, this is some kinda spoof, right? .. a fake article or a joke.
sheesh.. almost had me for a second. prices falling.. heheh.. funny.
My favorite part…
The Metters, who bought the home for $354,500 in February 2001, hung the for-sale sign on June 8. Nothing happened. A week later, they dropped it to $699,000, and in early August to $689,000.
A further cut dropped it to $647,750, which Stickney, the Metters’ real-estate agent, knew was less than other homes in the neighborhood had sold for recently.
“It’s a smoking deal at $647,000, but no one’s looking at it,” Stickney said with a sigh.
Yep, a smoking deal.
YO Metters:
I’ll take it for $499K and you still make a ton of profit!
Deal or NO deal?
Perhaps he’s smoking something else
Those prices in SEATTLE? Damn!
“King County’s median single-family home price last month was $450,000. That’s less than March’s $457,500 median and almost $32,000 less than this year’s high of $481,750, set in July. (Median is the midpoint: Half the properties sell for more, half for less.)”
The median dropped from $481,750 in July to $450,000 in September — a drop of $31,750 over a three-month (1/4 year) period.
The annualized rate of decline for that period is given by
((450,000/481,750)^4-1) X 100% = -24%.
One of the IBs gets nailed. Some insider stuff from the WSJ:
The actual losses are even greater because they have been reported after fees, offsetting hedges and gains recorded by the financial firms due to declines in the value of their own debt. At Merrill, the bulk of the $5.5 billion hit was a $4.5 billion write-down, after offsetting hedges, on collateralized debt obligations and subprime mortgages. The remaining $967 million, which was reduced to $463 million by offsetting fees, reflected losses on loan commitments for buyouts.
http://tinyurl.com/2g5tnm
‘Merrill’s earnings warning brought to nearly $20 billion the total amount of write-downs recorded by major banks and securities firms including Merrill, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank and Bear Stearns Cos.’
‘The actual losses are even greater because they have been reported after fees, offsetting hedges and gains recorded by the financial firms due to declines in the value of their own debt.’
“Some insiders say the departure of Jeff Kronthal, who oversaw credit, real estate and structured products at Merrill until his July 2006 ouster, may have contributed to the firm’s problems. In addition to opposing the First Franklin purchase, Mr. Kronthal worried that Merrill’s exposure to CDOs was too great, according to people familiar with the matter.”
Reading between the lines here, I would say this is symptomatic of the entire housing bubble. Anyone who spoke the truth or anything close to it was vilified and skewered. I hope Kronthal is laughing his head off on a beach on St. Tropez.
“…Merrill executives, who are not authorized to speak to the media, say Mr. Fakahany, a crucial member of Mr. O’Neal’s inner circle, had taken a larger role in the day-to- day running of the bank, even though he has not run trading, investment banking or wealth management….”
High school drop outs, college graduates you to can earn big money, no experience needed! Become an investment manager at Merrill.
Source: New York Times article on Merrill’s losses.
Irony used to be worth something…
Merrill’s earnings warning brought to nearly $20 billion the total amount of write-downs recorded by major banks and securities firms including Merrill, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank and Bear Stearns Cos.’”
$980 billion to go….
You gotta wonder how many of these monkeys running stocks up, fundamentals be damned, are doing it with their own money vs. OPM; i.e., do they have their own money in these funds.
Sarcasm off.
tx, I’m STILL laughing over your comment the other day about the guy taking a bath on the Boca property. You rule!
I caught the tail end of that drama. I presume TXchick called out an RE troll previous to that post.
I’ve been “debating” the merits of TX residential RE with that clown for a good 3-4 years now, first on SI, now here occasionally. He’s another one of these out of state know it alls who thinks they know better than me, a 20 year resident of this hellhole. Those people drive me straight up the wall.
I remember when you gave some effed flipper a good a$$ flaming on SI a couple of years ago. And someone came to his defense calling you a “Ben Jones groupie”. That’s what closed me on the merits of this blog.
I’ve been on SI since 1997. It’s a good forum but only have time to annoy one group of people so I chose this one
What is SI?
Silicon Investor.
The dream “real estate ALWAYS goes up” will never die with some jokers. I have a neighbor who is currently attending RE investment seminars, longing to be another DONALD. Haven’t ya heard yet that the market peaked in ‘05? or subprime has utterly collapsed? Or why are they asking YOU to invest? Can’t they get their hands on their own cheap credit / if the banker’s are saying no shouldn’t you?
“The dream “real estate ALWAYS goes up” will never die with some jokers. I have a neighbor who is currently attending RE investment seminars”
You aren’t kidding. This article was from yesterdays Chicago Tribune about people flocking to foreclosure classes. Prices haven’t even gone down all that much in the area, & certainly have not declined enough to make these properties profitable flips. These people are going to loose their shirts…
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-fri_foreclosure_1005oct05,0,3262125.story
I agree. Most likely BB’s opened the floodgates and Wall Street is using it as play money. On a different note, a friend of mine predicted that the technicals signaled a rally about 2 days before the DOW started going up.
The problem is that at least two analysts upgraded a few dismal stocks (builders, lenders, IBs, REITs) and the mania hit. Fundamentals be damned!
Txchick;
Regarding OPM (Other Peoples Money), I am reminded of a quote I saw recently describing tghe BigFundBoys ‘Smoking lots of OPM in the Leverage Bong.’
I think it a rather fitting image, wouldn’t you agree?
SubKommander Dred
I really enjoyed this article. I’ve been waiting to read it since Feb. It’s not everyday an IB gets nailed.
What’s more, it shows these guys were in denial until mid Aug. Paying 1.3 billion for First Franklin in Jan supports that thesis.
Another thing I like to keep in mind, just to give me perspective, is that no matter what the stock market does, housing will continue to tank. The two really aren’t connected as far as that goes, because the majority of homeowners do not benefit from moves of the market. It may make some feel hopeful, but it won’t translate into money in the bank or a magical increase in property values.
But Palm, the denial is truly unbelievable. Even now, my wife comes home to tell me one of her retarded co-workers insist that real estate doesn’t go down. After conceding that it in fact has gone down, he contends we’re at the bottom. The belief that RE is a scorching screaming investment is still nearly universal. I think I want to see the boosters proven wrong more than watching RE tank.
“I think I want to see the boosters proven wrong more than watching RE tank.”
Yep, me too, but I have to back off from that sometimes because otherwise the desire for schadenfreude would eat me alive and some days it does. Every once in a while someone posts “Patience, Grasshopper” and it calms me down.
From a totally self-centered me-first attitude I am glad the knife catchers are out there buying the declining market. Their inputs of fresh money softens and dampens the rate of price decline, a good thing.
If everyone woke up one morning and realized that RE was worth half of what it was selling for then all the markets, not just RE, would totally freeze up and we would all be screwed.
Be greatful for the presence of the FBs, current and future.
Exeter,
Am I mistaken or are you from the NY area? Because, speaking from LI, my friend just had her 3br/1.5ba cape on a busy street appraised at 489k this past summer and there is NO WAY it has gone down. Okay, maybe it’ll go down 10k but it’s impossible for it to go any further…she has it in writing!!!!
Okay, maybe it’ll go down 10k but it’s impossible for it to go any further…she has it in writing!!!!
She’s pretty lucky - most people don’t have their appraiser offer to buy at the appraised price, and they especially don’t get those offers in writing very often! Wow, that’s really great for her!
Oh wait, what is in writing?
Danni,
I’m from VT but I’m living and working in and around Westchester County. No specific area takes the lead on the kool-ade consumption although your friend sounds like a one of a kind dreamy-eyed loon in a real estate induced psychosis. The stupidity is nearly universal.
“Kook Aid Consumption”
Sorry if this was posted yesterday but all of my fellow San Diegans I’m sure read about Jim Jones’ (yes of cool aid fame) grandson getting a basketball scholarsip to Univ of SD.
I can hear the chants when he is at the free throw line…”Kool Aid-Kool Aid.”
I have to back off from that sometimes because otherwise the desire for schadenfreude would eat me alive and some days it does.
Um, Palmetto, “not that there’s anything wrong with that,” but…I gotta be honest, the thought of being the object of your desire kinda creeps me out….
“What’s more, it shows these guys were in denial until mid Aug.”
Guess they didn’t believe us bloggers who tried to warn them that subprime was not contained?
Dreaming economics last night, counting sheeple…
The corporate hats tend to hype profits and hide losses, in our brave new world of lies
So did Merrill really lose a ton more than just 5.5 Billion Dollars, this quarter?
RE: Mr. O’Neal accepted a share of the blame for the losses, saying, “I missed it.”
First it was Adolph Greenspam and now O’Neal.
This is leadership?
Fookin’ US is economic toast.
this is news to me. Did the former Treasury Secretary say something recently?
“This is leadership?”
Another BULLSEYE HDman. We’ve been a leaderless, rudderless nation since 1980.
Perhaps nobody clued in O’Neal on how well that “contained” line turned out for Messrs. Bernanke and Paulson earlier this year with respect to the subprime crisis?
Mr. O’Neal said he believed the losses are “contained,” and the firm needs to take such risks to serve clients and generate shareholder returns.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119158978516350109.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
I hadn’t heard that pigs wallowed around in herds…
A financial abattoir~
“Merrill Lynch, best known for its symbol of the bull and its “herd” of 16,000 brokers pitching stocks to retail investors, had become deeply involved in the mortgage business by this year. That was despite an assurance to investors just three months ago that its exposure was “limited” and “contained.” At one point, Merrill had amassed a portfolio of at least $25 billion in risky assets, people familiar with the situation say.
The $5.5b hit was actually good news for Merrill, as evidenced by the increase in their stock price yesterday.
WaMu’s report of a 75% hit to profits was also good news for the same reason.
that’s because now we have some “clarity.”
The $5.5b hit was actually good news for Merrill, as evidenced by the increase in their stock price yesterday.
It wasn’t “good news” for Merrill. Rather, it showed the depths of stupidity and self-delusion of the American investing public. The sheeple may think Merrill just took a big step toward putting this all behind them - a completely misplaced faith, in my opinion. Far more bloodletting ahead for these Wall Street “investment” firms that put collecting fat fees ahead of sound financial management.
Sure, Al. Whatever.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/sfl-1003subprime,0,2672394.story
How is it that these guys, Greenspan, Bernanke, Kudlow, Paulson and anyone in DC and Wall street expect to retain ANY credibility saying shit like that? The misdirection out of the mouths of these clowns is utterly preposterous. I mean…. where the frig do I begin? “The economy is roaring”, “jobs are plentiful”, “housing is affordable”, “fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here”. Clearly, these guys are floating something we aren’t aware of or a part of.
“Clearly, these guys are floating something”
Yeah, floating a steaming cheese log.
Let them eat cheese….
“How is it that these guys, Greenspan, Bernanke, Kudlow, Paulson and anyone in DC and Wall street expect to retain ANY credibility saying shit like that?”
Credibility is not something that concerns them. This is a game now being played by Central Bankers, international ibanks and currency traders, all of it hinged on political concerns. Vietnam, Saudi, Iran and now Qatar have unpegged from the free-falling dollar, with the oil trade moving to a “basket of currencies’. We are, per Bloomberg, apparently exporting inflation to China. How this unwinds internationally, and at what costs, is what concerns them. As for Americans generally, all the big players need is to keep a lid on panic, and to keep this as “orderly” possible.
The wealth transfer has been completed, and what constitutes “middle class” American living standards will drop drastically. As this reality settles in, they need to keep Americans from acting politically or even violently in reaction.
I think this is the point of all the official statements, and the lulling sounds of “homeowner relief” or increasing the size of Fannie Mae loans. Nothing will really affect the outcome, but panic or angry revolt is what they cannot contend with.
Remember Katrina…the National Guard is not available to quell disorder in this country. It’s been deployed elsewhere.
RE: The wealth transfer has been completed, and what constitutes “middle class” American living standards will drop drastically. As this reality settles in, they need to keep Americans from acting politically or even violently in reaction.
You pretty much sum it all up S66.
Meanwhile, the masses eat their county fair fried dough, lap up Paris Hilton and Britney Spears sound bites, and root for their favorite American Idol.
Truly a brain dead culture.
mmmmmm. county fair fried dough…..
sounds like a Paula Deen recipe.
…and root for their favorite American Idol.
OMG BLAKE LEWIS!
Good post Spike and so right on. We are seeing the most blatant attempt ever to eliminate the middle class. This is what the war on savers is all about. The ruling elite know they must make the middle class demise as orderly and transparent as possible. The RE bubble, stock bubble, Madison Ave w/ their “I deserve it now” “keeping up with the Jones” message bombardment, taxation, etc. are all part of the ploy.
Man I remember in college when most people’s goal was to make $100k. At the time (1990) that was a good salary-a salary you could support a family of 4 here in so cal. Now my friends are struggling at $200k to save money because of inflation/livings costs here. Truely sad.
oops = not transparent …just woke up
Seems like your friends need to move somewhere else. That $200K or even $150K will give them a very comfortable life and early retirement in 80% of the USA.
Well written. The money people as well as the Washington DC gang do not want a “upset” American public who might start questioning this setup of funny money, relaxed mortgage guidlines to hook home owners for long term debt, etc. A informed public is danger and would expose the elite. Wonder why there is no math classes on credit, debt and how to handle money taught in schools? Keep the public stupied. Easier to control. Smart people ask questions. To bad today few people read history or our taught history on finance. It’s all there waiting for “new” minds to discover the truth.
I just wish he would go away, at this point.
I really hate his twisted style of speech. It is so condescending. Maybe the the “world” does hang on his every syllable. Go ahead Al, speak clearly, let the sheople act on your words, after they get burnt a few times, they’ll stop listening, and then you can say whatever you want, without worry. I am not saying Al isn’t a smart guy, I’m sure that he is. BUT..no one is right all of the time. Either give me the exact..who, what, when, where and why and stop being so supposedly cryptic or STFU.
It is not so obstreperous to orate in such a recondite manner, when you assay to adumbrate your periphrastic dissertation in a disquisition foredained to have multifarious acceptations.
See Al, I have a thesaurus too!
Nice one, Pen. What jumped out at me from the article is Al’s assertion that we now have two, count ‘em, TWO stores of value, the dollar AND the euro.
Call me a tin-foil hatter, but that’s what I dislike about the FED and globalization, this “trend” toward a “New World Order”. I think Al’s on that bandwagon.
i dont think its anymore than he has an avantage point from which he sees.. and he knows.. that economic borders are a thing of the past..
and the full implications and effects of it, most of which is yet to come, are beyond anyone’s understanding, including his own.
no. he’s an active participant in an attempt to engineer what he hopes to be some type of “better world.” economic borders are not a thing of the past, and they never will be. this is the same pablum the corporate media regurgitates in every outlet. just like “social security isn’t going to be there when you retire.”
just like “social security isn’t going to be there when you retire.”
Exactly. And another beauty is “there is nothing we can do about healthcare”. I got a bulletin for our current leadership and those seeking to lead us who think we’re gonna continue down the painful path we’ve been on. Retirement security and healthcare will be an issue that will hang you from the light poles or get you elected and keep you in office.
It’s your choice.
Any cash offers right now, for my $1233 a month worth of social security money, due to me in 17 years?
Step right up
Can we please pull our heads out of the world of balance sheets and ledgers and scales and refocus on reality? There is no Social Security lock box. Just like in 1933, if I’m having trouble feeding my kids AND my parents at the same time, I’m going to demand that somebody else pay for it. And if I’m upset enough, I’m going to start robbing banks, I’m going to start putting dynamite in government buildings (remember the anarchists?) and I’m generally going to disrupt the flow of goods and services and PROFITS to the point where it’s cheaper to pay me off. Even better than 1933, in the future I will have had extensive training in urban warfare and with state of the art military equipment after my 20 years of service in the Arab and Persian lands…
chilidoggg..
I may not like it anymore than you, and i don’t find it pleasant to argue about.. so just for the sake of discussion..
Give me one example of an economic “border” that still exists today.
In the 1930’s…
I can name a dozen bank robbers (John Dillinger, Bonnie & Clyde, Ma Barker, Pretty Boy Floyd, Machine Gun Kelly, et al)
But I know precious few others from the 1940’s, 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, or 00’s
Bad time breeds crime.
Economic borders vanishing has come and gone numerous times in the past. Opening of the East Indes, West Indes, New Americas, etc., all had folks saying the same thing (read Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations for his documentation of “globalization” during the early 1700s. Unfortunately, this economic game being played has already been played numerous times. The last time monopolies were created to this degree were between Britain and its colonies here. So much capital was poured into that trade, it put enormous pressure between the Brits and the colonists.
This should sound familiar to the monopoly created by Congress and the Fed with the reserve currency status and trade between nations since 1913. It has built up dependencies that when they are disrupted, it will have serious consequences.
There is no problem with fixing social security. Just remove the cap on earnings. The democrats are already talking about this. There are thousands of people who stop paying social security tax with their January paycheck. There are probably a few million that stop paying sometime during the summer. Having these people pay social security all year long will cure that problem and then some.
Also remember when the employee stops paying so does the company. So we are talking about quite a lot of money here.
Uh, no thanks - you remove the cap on social security and more of MY money is flushed down the toilet to pay for the current raft of retirees who didn’t put their own money aside. Why don’t you just write a check out of your own bank account and send it to the Social Security Administration instead of advocating that our leech-like government steal more of mine?
There is no problem with fixing social security. Just remove the cap on earnings.
I hope you’re kidding! That’s a terrible idea.
Rich people today don’t pay Social Security anyway. Why do you think Steve Jobs take a $1 salary and the rest of his money in (backdated) stock options? Because he’s generous?
Wealthy people will just “defer” their income, or make non-payroll income, while the middle will get screwed again.
The cap is there to maintain the fiction that SS isn’t welfare.
“Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the ‘worst may well be over’ for the U.S. housing industry that’s suffering its worst downturn in more than a decade.”
Oh! Wait!!! That was October 6, one year ago, 2006. I think ‘ole Al must be speaking in future-present tense.
that’s awesome. Good work, Dazed.
Awesome! The worst has been over for an entire year already! Great forecasting, AG!!!
Queeg, revisited
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/iacono/2007/1005.html
On a different note, a serious questions. How can you tell if the RE market has hit bottom? This questioned was asked and I thought this group could help elucidate a great answer.
Here are my indicators…
Price of renting a home is about equivelent to the cost of purchasing a home.
And median income is 3-4X the median home price for a particular area.
Not sure if those will give the “bottom” of the RE market, but they are my idicators that it is now time to start to look at buying. Until then, I will sit back and watch the crash.
I was wondering about the median income versus median home price metric. Given that there will always be move up buyers (perhaps more move up buyers than new buyers), is this generally true when the market is “proper”?
I do know that here in Hampton Roads/Southeastern Virginia, it’s more like Median Income *might* afford 25th percentile, if that.
More important is that 3X income is about the right price for an individual. But under traditional lending standards, not everyone participated in the housing market - some people were living close to the edge of affordability to just pay rent, so they never saved enough for a downpayment and never purchased. Homeownership before the bubble was steady at about 65% for a very long time. So for median prices to be in line with median incomes of traditional participants in the market, median prices have to fall to about 3X the median income of the top 65% of households.
Of course, the participants in the market weren’t entirely the top 65% of earners, but that is probably a closer model than 65% of everyone.
And there is at least some reason to believe that the “bottom” will overshoot the traditional metrics, so the bottom may be lower.
well.. there are some people who willingly pay all of their income just to drive a Cadillac.. or whatever.
Some people, and some entire areas of people, will be content with and agree to continue spending 50% or 75% of their income on shelter.
But, aside from those areas, 3-4x yearly income is a comfortable, sustainable amount almost anywhere, and should be a strong indicator of a bottom.
I think that the new lending models will stop many people from spending too much on a house. The realtor who sold us our house in April stopped in to see us this past week. She said that nobody is getting loans now at 100% and that they have to have plenty of income now to get a loan.
So I say that we have a long, long way to go before homes start selling in great numbers again. One of two things must happen to change this: housing prices drop 30-50% or earnings rise 30 -50%. Now I am old enough that I have been through a few of these cycles and real earnings are not rising 30-50% in the next few years.
Maybe our market (Greenville,SC area) will be OK. Things are still fine here (under 425K - higher end is not moving AT ALL according to people that know) Normal pricing, supply, limited foreclosures. Median income $36900, median price $151400, puts us at a ratio of 4.1, with lots of folks still moving into the area. Crime is one thing that is definitely rising fast right now, however.
There is no bottom without capitulation, I don’t care what market you are talking about. When people run away from you when you mention real estate, the bottom is near.
Nobody is reporting numbers that I can believe in to determine the bottom. Didn’t Moody’s get taken in their bond ratings by trusting numbers. You can spin median prices and median incomes all day long, I am waiting for the moment when Erik Estrada is no longer on LA TV pitching Arkansas land, and people are buying. Still to much money out there.
Good point. Historically always an indicator
Why try to call the bottom? I say, wait until the upswing — a couple years of 3%+ price growth.
Don’t worry about missing the very first slice of prices rebounding — but DO make sure you miss the last knife drops and/or the last 10-20% (or more) of the decline.
When the cost of ownership and renting become close, and median income afforability (for fixed mortgage) and stabilizing or shrinking inventory will also all be good indicators.
Better yet, how about establishing your own criteria of affordability? For me, I won’t buy my dream home until it is no more than 1/6 of my net worth. My method takes emotion and most of the risk out of my real estate buying. Being footloose and traveling (and renting) across the USA while doing contract engineering is how I build up my net worth in frightening economic situations such as we have now. When was it not frightening? Not in my 48 years, I would guess. There were always people heading for the hills and fortelling of economic collapse since the late 1950s. Shoot, I may as well get rid of my bonds and gold and put everything in stocks!
How can you tell if the RE market has hit bottom?
When I can afford to buy a house with the cash I have stashed in the bank (maybe to be soon under my mattress)…
Hitting bottom? The bottom I always wanted to “hit” was Agnetha Fältskog circa 1977. Now THAT was a bottom!
Roidy
Can you hear the drums Fernando?
I remember long ago another starry night like this
In the firelight Fernando
You were humming to yourself and softly strumming your guitar
I could hear the distant drums
And sounds of bugle calls were coming from afar…
Song now stuck in my head … gee thanks, ACH!
Didn’t say I liked the music.
LOL
Roidy
new forgiveness is wonderful law?
a flipper qualifies as he has low income since 05
an underwater flipper must be licking his chops
Bush better veto this pos too
Why would he veto it? Wasn’t he the one who proposed it?
First, in order to qualify for debt forgiveness, the home must be the borrower’s primary residence. This will disqualify most flippers.
Secondly, removing the tax penalty only accelerates the deflation of the bubble. If there are no tax consequences associated with debt foregiveness, then more and more f@cked buyers will start sending in their keys.
Additinally, the bill takes away certain tax benefits of owning a second home. It also increases the deductibility of PMI, which is certainly a good thing.
I’m not a big fan of this Congress or this President, but this bill at least appears to be a good thing.
Update re: email from realtor..
Back in late 03, early 04 I was considering buying (actually thinking I would get priced out) back home in VT/NH. I was working with a RE agent and my last words to him in Feb04 was “Kevin, I’m not gonna pay these prices… so long my friend”….. Haven’t heard a word from him since then until today I get an email saying:
“Mr. Exeter, How are things going? I was wondering if you are still on a quest for land or other property in this area. Let me know what you are interested in at this time and I can forward a list of properties for your review.”
Well I replied to his sniveling last nite but haven’t heard anything. Here’s the cut-n-paste of my reply…
Kevin,
“There is much to be said about the sad state of affairs of the real estate biz but I think you already know that so I won’t bother. Nevertheless, most everything is overpriced by 50% or more in many cases irrespective of location and therefore, buying anything assocated with “real estate” would be a grave error. When prices return to historical norms, I’ll likely buy.”
Regards,
Exeter
I can’t wait for his reply. I’ll bet it will be something like, “better buy now before prices go back up”…
Good one, exeter. Keep us posted. Me, I’m waiting for below historical norms, in keeping with the fact that booms always seem to overcorrect on the way down. This sort of answers Onosurf’s question above. I’ll buy when I just can’t believe how low the prices are.
I’ll respond for him…
Dear Exeter,
It is a great time to buy. Prices are up, rates are down, inventory is good. There are some fantastic deals to be had. According the the NAR, prices have stabilized. While, yes it is true that there are some weak spots experienced some price adjustments, all real estate is local. Our local realtor association is predicting that prices in the area will soon start rising, as inventory shrinks and buyers re-enter the market. Furthermore, footbal season is well underway, which means before you know it, it will be SuperBowl Sunday and the market will be coming back, followed by an even stronger recovery with the spring market, by which time the foreclosures will be cleared out, new home inventory will have been absorbed and we’ll be back to normal conditions.
Thanks.
AFR (another #$@%ed realtor)
LMAO….. You forgot that Suzanne said she’d “get right on it”.
Prices always go up!
Just don’t look at those graphs the pesky kids are generating.
Got popcorn?
Neil
There’s a really nice house here on Capitol Hill. Originally listed for about 6 - 8 months ago for $675K. Eventually dropped to $609K. Finally went into contact fell out. Now $589K. Still overpriced by 25% - 30%. Wrote the agent and sent the recent NYT graph. Asked agent to let me know about any further price cut. I really like the price. Agent’s reply:
(Interesting to me, is his mention of panic. I did not mention it or anything like. Just said I thought the house like much of the market was over priced)
Thank you for your message and article.
Real estate and economics are all about supply and demand. During the real estate boom of the past few years demand has pushed prices to new limits and supply has stayed very low. Currently in DC(not including VA/MD) demand and supply are just about even. Prices are not going crazy but they are not dropping like the media is portraying. If you think there is a bubble then there would have to be a sudden increase in supply and a major fall in demand and I just don’t think that is going to happen. Although I have seen supply increase and demand decrease in the past couple weeks it is not severe enough to trigger a panic on the demand side. Interest rates are still very low and people always will need a roof over there head no matter what the price is.
RE: I really like the price.
NO I LIKE THE HOUSE NOT THE PRICE. Coffee please.
“people always will need a roof over there head no matter what the price is.”
Can we start getting it in the media and out to realtors that when you rent - funnily enough - you do have a roof over your head -
I am so fed up with the MSM and NAR spewing comments like - families will be made homeless if they get foreclosed upon etc etc; people need a roof over their head so they have to buy somewhere!
RANT OFF!
when I was in junior high (yup, not middle school), we had a class called “Logic.” It was math-based, but expounded into other arenas. The goal was to teach us how to think. Don’t know if it worked for me, but this realtor obviously never took such a class.
I don’t doubt that he napped through logic, but I suspect a far more disturbing problem. A complete lack of understanding of what the word “demand” means with respect to real estate. For there to be “demand” someone has to both want a house and be able to pay for it. Being able to pay for it, requires either cash or credit or both.
There could be only one house for sale in the entire DC metro area and millions of people who would like to buy it, but if they don’t have cash or can’t qualify for a loan, there is no demand for the house.
I admit it is a hard lesson since fogging a mirror used to be enough to qualify for a loan, but that is changing. Can’t come quick enough as far as I am concerned.
Nancy Pelosi (Congress) to the rescue.
http://speaker.gov/issues?id=0053
Of particular interest is the headline:
AFFORDIBLE HOUSING FOR THOSE LOSING HOMES
LOL, Nancy Pelosi. Now that’s what I call effective leadership. Really doing a bang-up job getting our troops out of the abattoir.
Nancy Pelosi is another Alan Greenspan–whore for the ultra-rich.
I hope you’re kidding.
Nancy Pelosi is another Alan Greenspan–whore for the ultra-rich.
Huh? I hope you are sarcastic. Libs tend to think the homebuyers of the last 5 years are ALL guiltless in forming the bubble. No such thing as liar loans, and of course, it’s not the stupid individual’s fault he does not understand the loan terms and purchase agreement.
Grrrr! I hate socialists.
I really don’t mind having a skinny woman with 5 kids standing up there smacking the gavel…I’m kinda sick looking at 350 lbs white a$$ pork rib chomping lard fat blob’s for the last 40 years.
skinny and female is ok with me too, but does it have to be a skinny female leftist?
You’re thinking: Ann Coulter?
I’d never want to risk breaking up with Ann, so i’m content to remain an unknown admirer.
you right-wingers should thank God every day for the gift of Nancy Pelosi. All of the baggage of being an annoying feminist leftist, none of the benefits of leftist legislation.
she’s better than hastert and newt. much better.
not exactly competition, heh?
Say what is the difference between a leftist and rightist anymore, they are fed from the same lobby group/campaign finance hands.
leftist and rightist anymore
Sexual misconduct!
I have a postcard I bought the other day, shows a cowboy in a horse corral mucking out manure. The caption is, “Training to be a politician.”
Which reminds me an old joke;
“In Communism, man exploits man. In Capitalism, it’s the other way around.”
SubKommander Dred
They can pass all the legislation they want, but it won’t make a difference for many among the final wave of FB’s. They lied on their mortgage applications–not a little, but exaggerated incomes by several hundred percent. There is no feasible way of restructuring the loans to overcome their fraud. They are screwed, and deservedly so.
Unless Pelosi’s idea is to start cutting FB’s checks for the difference between their actual income and their stated income, this H/house of cards (double-pun intended) will collapse. The only question is how much collateral damage will be inflicted upon innocent bystanders (taxpayers, savers) by ill-conceived bailout plans such as those suggested by Pelosi, Dodd, et al.
“…The only question is how much collateral damage will be inflicted upon innocent bystanders (taxpayers, savers) by ill-conceived bailout plans such as those suggested by Pelosi, Dodd, et al.”
Re; Re: “The Bailout Theory of Redemption”
Remember? (And as Prof Bear noted: include & add with that 34% group… those tax paying US of A renters!)
“Federal aid ‘would come at a cost,’ said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘It has to be paid for and the question is would the 34 percent of homeowners who have no mortgage be willing to pay taxes to support the bailout of people who traditionally have not managed credit well?’”
This friendly reminder is brought to you by:
“Neil’s Natural Hot Buttered Derivative Popcorn”
I don’t think they bother reading emails so I bought a stack of Post cards to send my anti-bailout messagess to Congress.
My message is short.
I am firmly against Real Estate mortgage bailing outs!
I read your ideas on Real Estate mortgage bailouts and I am appalled. Those people who’s homes are being foreclosed would never have qualified for a mortgage if YOU had done your job and passed laws against the corruption and deceit going on in the mortgage industry.
The elections are nearing and I plan to work very hard to throw all of you derelicts out of office. Democrats and Republicans alike.
Amen, BJ! I like the postcard idea and will do the same.
BTW I would just like to point out that your sentence should read, “Those people whose homes are…”
Senator Kit Bond, Republican-Mo., successfully won Senate approval for a measure to help provide $100 million to help homeowners facing foreclosure to remain in their homes.
http://bond.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.NewsReleases&ContentRecord_id=ff5118bf-1321-0e36-ba65-4336e6d8b8d1&Region_id=&Issue_id=
Right, and that 100m is not even a fourth of the underwriting fees Merrill earned to offset the 976 million it just wrote off.
Yeah, Sen. Bond, that’ll help.
Bond, clueless Bond…
Senate agent 006.99
Licensed to dispense $100 Million to save America
Applying $100 Million worth of Bond Dough to the car wreck that is the U.S. economy, ain’t gonna work…
A modern-day Canute the Great.
Here in Sarasota the mantra is being tweaked:
“THE BABYBOOMERS ARE COMING” is now “THE BABYBOOMERS AND THE CANADIANS AND THE EUROPEANS ARE COMING”
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071006/COLUMNIST10/710060461/1201/REALESTATE
Praise the Lord. We’re all saved!!
Babyboomerangs.
LOL
From an almost-commutable D.C. Exurb:
That should read: “about 53% were built between 2003 and 2006″. In the physical newspaper, a table showed 75% of the foreclosures were built between 2000-2006.
What that says to me is that a “better class of people” are succumbing to forclosure. So, it’s not just the truly marginal homeowners that are losing their forclosures - it’s reasonably competent people that that got sucked into the “I’ll get the ARM/teaser rate now, and sell/refinance in three years” strategy.
“reasonably competent people”
Serial refis and Helocs to keep up your standard of living…and this is the behavior of “reasonably competent people”.
Wages have been stagnant since 2000, by any reasonable standard, consumption should have remained fairly flat as well, the exception being the “super luxury” category for the uber-rich.
hjALmar Greenspan
I had an appraisal assignment this week which made me laugh and that doesn’t heppen often these days.
As is ususally the case nowadays the home had been purchased at the top in 2005 and my appraisal came in about $40,000 less than the purchase price. It was an ARM and about to reset.
I sent in the report to the bank and received an email which asked me to explain the decline in value since the purchase. I sat at my desk licking my chops. Three pages later I explained it to the underwriter. I hope it was as good for the bank as it was for me. I needed a cigarette!
Too bad you had to be professional about it or you could have just made it a one liner.
a link to this website..
RE: and my appraisal came in about $40,000 less than the purchase price.
Probably the last assignment you’ll receive from these chucks.
Hope you collected your fee in advance.
hd74man-you would be surprised as most appraisals are coming in low and we are receiving NO resistance from the banks. I don’t work for slug brokers. I think it is all out there and noone is surprised at low numbers any longer.
Comment by M.B.A. (on some layoff data, I had posted)
2007-10-05 15:39:06
“hoz - what do you have for hartford, ct???”
Hartford has had
190 total mass layoffs since Jan 1, 2000
29 mass layoffs from Jan1, 2000 to Sept 11, 2001
67 layoffs occurred Sep 12, 2001 to May 31, 2003 (my arbitrary end to mild recession)
70 Layoffs Jun1, 2003 to May 1, 2005 Fed Funds at max
53 Layoffs May 2, 2005 to Oct 5, 2007
YTD: 12 layoffs
Hartford School District April 28, 2007 Education
West Hartford School Board July 11, 2007 Education
Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. March 9, 2007 Financial Services
Mortgage Lenders Network USA January 4, 2007 Financial Services
The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. January 24, 2007 Financial Services
HP Hood, Llc September 6, 2007 Food And Beverages
Federal Reserve System June 26, 2007 Government
Hartford Housing Authority October 5, 2007 Government
Qualex Inc. August 8, 2007 High Technology
Rogers Corporation June 27, 2007 High Technology
Lego Holding A/S April 15, 2007 Manufacturing
FedEx Corporation May 24, 2007 Transportation
These are not by any means all the Layoffs in any given area, these are layoffs that fit my parameter search pattern.
In my search pattern the two that would red flag me are Lego and FedEx.
In my search pattern the two that would red flag me are Lego and FedEx.
Very odd. FedEx only lays off if growth is no longer on the previous trend line. Gulp! Considering how well UTX is doing (selling to airbus, JSF, and a few other programs) its very odd to see that… that implies the financial companies are are cutting business far more than is reflected in your layoff list.
Got popcorn?
Neil
At what point does the business of America being a business, not transcend everything else we are about, as a country?
Or are we too far past the tipping point, already?
Chicago Tribune article on yesterday’s job numbers and how the Fed will be less likey to cut rates in the future. Also discusses the poor quality of the statistics that the Fed uses to make its decisions and the risk of inflation.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sat_jobs1006oct06,0,5691274.story
“…the poor quality of the statistics…”
It is not so much poor quality statistics that bother me (current data releases are inherently noisy) so much as an apparent over-reliance on the dubious information content of the current data release.
My b.i.l. and I have been talking a bit lately…
He’s a daydream believer (believes in the sanctity of stocks) and a Wall Street wet dream~
So I called him yesterday and asked why he thought the market went up 91 points, on dreadful news?
(silence)
Whoops…
“US jobs figure that triggered Fed’s rate cut ‘was a mistake’”
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3033458.ece
The good news: Rumors of Goldilock’s untimely demise are greatly exaggerated.
The bad news: So are rumors of further Fed Funds Rate cuts.
Employment, economy growing
Improved jobs data in face of credit crisis welcomed on Wall St.
By Cecilia Kang
THE WASHINGTON POST
October 6, 2007
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071006/news_1b6econ.html
For all those people who think Atlanta won’t be affected by the housing/credit bubble. Here’s a graph of the percentage of subprime loans issued in 2005 and foreclosure hot spots in the metro Atlanta area. Home prices areas with lower foreclosure rates “start” around $400K and these are smaller, aren’t in great condition, are in questionable neighborhoods, or are so far out the commute is 1.5 - 2.5hrs on average.
http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/ajc/business/foreclosures.jpg
And late mortgage rates skyrocket and foreclosure rate is predicted to only get worse:
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/business/stories/2007/10/03/delinquents_1004.html
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/business/stories/2007/10/04/delinquents1004.html?COXnetJSessionIDbuild56a_prod=rdPQHHfChPRRSWQqvH2DGhJ5×2vhjNS09plDDm7C5LgvMlpTSJw0!350902392&UrAuth=aNaNUOcNZUbTTUWUXUVUZTZU\UWUbUaUZU\U]UcTYWYWZV&urcm=y
The problem is growing so lenders are starting to accept short sales on homes in Atlanta:
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/homefinder/stories/2007/10/05/johnadams_1007.html
This is only the beginning of falling prices in Atlanta…
Beef prices to be coming down?
“The Korean government said it found bone chips in a beef shipment from the United States for the second time in two months and would put all beef shipments from the U.S. on hold until new rules for beef imports are established between the two countries.”
JoongAng
Oct 6, 2007
Also on Korea:
“German Economic Minister Michael Glos yesterday urged Korea to rethink its industry standards, which are more in line with the United States than with Europe. He implied doing so would make it easier for Korea to reach a free trade agreement with the European Union….”
good thing they’re still accepting our dog imports. JUST KIDDING!!!!!!!!!
US dollar / ROK Won 5 yr chart
http://tinyurl.com/2sa83e
In 1997, ROK citizens donated approximately $5B to help bail out the country from the Asian currency crisis. The donations were in the form of jewelry, PMs, foreign currency, etc. The current foreign currency reserves in the ROK are $240B. Citizens lined up in the street to make donations.
Will US citizens donate to bail out the US?
“TOKYO: Asian countries need to prepare for a possible sharp fall in the dollar and should allow their currencies to appreciate collectively if that happens, a senior Asian Development Bank official said Tuesday.
“Any shock hitting the U.S. economy or the global market may change investors’ perceptions, given the existing global current account imbalance,” Masahiro Kawai, the bank’s head of regional economic integration, said at a news conference.
“Our suggestion to Asian countries is, don’t take this continuous financing of the U.S. current account deficit as given. If something happens, then East Asian economies have to be prepared.”
March 28, 2006
IHT
Koreans are an incredibly nationalistic people. They are also fanatical (in Korea) about maintaining the racial purity of their penninsula. Mixed-race children are called “dust of life” there and are severely stigmatized and are often outcasts. They have an extremely strong sense of their history, identity as a distinct people, and culture. They have a sense of attachment to their families, towns, regions, and countries that few Americans could fathom. Of course they dug deep to bail out their beloved country.
Would the Tower of Babal and Idiocracy that we’ve become do the same? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Yeah…well I just found out I got “boned” by buying a Korean LG Plasma TV. It died on me just out of warranty. So maybe we should freeze all shipments of those POS, along with Hyundai and Kia cars. Real quality there…
just go down to best buy, they’re selling almost every one of the 32 - 65 inch plasma and lcd hdtv’s at under $2000. i wish i had money to spend on a flat panel…
Kind of interesting. These articles are a lot different than a couple of years ago….
Lansner: Insider Q&A hears that land market’s ‘non-existent’
http://tinyurl.com/2hbtro
With the stock markets rallying, there should be no reason to cut rates again! That is why I think the markets will start trending lower over the next several weeks so that the Kudlows and Cramers of the world can convince the Fed we need another rate cut. Am I’m sure the Fed will be more than happy to help, as they are the whipping boy for Wall Street.
As for bailouts, it truly is amazing how much sympathy there is for people who lied on their loan docs, speculated and lost, people with horrendous credit who never should have homes in the first place, and serial refinancers. The so-called “American Dream” of homeownership has become an “American Entitlement.”
My guess is that we will have some truly remarkable bailout measures pass: forgiven debt income by judges, creditors, permanently frozen ARM rates (as the head of FDIC demanded yesterday), orders to keep foreclosures off credit reports to conceal credit risks, and massive government intervention. All may help the current crop of FBs, but it will hurt tomorrow’s housing market and drag this on even longer. After all, lenders will demand much higher interest rates given that people will be essentially free to walk away from secured loans without penalty, and that will hurt people like us.
“…it is amazing how much sympathy there is for people who lied on their loan docs, speculated and lost, people with horrendous credit who never should have homes in the first place, and serial refinancers…”
I suspect the ’sympathy’ you perceive is largely a fabrication of the politicians who have crafted bailout proposals to primarily benefit their own campaign coffers due to reimbursement from REIC industry corporations who would be the true bailout beneficiaries. All evidence I have seen suggests the general electorate is strongly opposed to bailouts.
La Jolla ocean view home prices to be coming down?
Geologists, residents monitoring seaward side
By Mark Sauer and Chet Barfield
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITERS
October 6, 2007
NADIA BOROWSKI SCOTT
/ Union-Tribune
Cindy Goodman examined pavement cracks yesterday that have occurred near her house, which sits across from a sinking section of Caminito Avola.
Another section of Mount Soledad – this one with ocean views – may be poised for a landslide, threatening more homes with the kind of devastation that struck the eastern slope this week, geologists reported yesterday.
…
“I’m worried that this hill is going to collapse,” Cindy Goodman said. Her $2 million, 3,500-square-foot, four-bedroom house sits across from an 80-foot section of Caminito Avola that is sinking and slanted toward the sea.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20071006-9999-1n6slide.html
“…that is sinking and slanted toward the sea.”
Bugs: “eh Daffy, just exactly how did the Titanic sink?”
Daffy: ” Well Bugsy Pal, I was flying South from Iceland back to the State’s after visiting my cousin’s in Greenland…I noticed all these little row boat’s in cold Atlantic sea…
But Cindy, I thought housing always went UP. hehehehehehe
Women settle with big realty company
http://tinyurl.com/2enkrb
The Realwhores can’t sell and are ugly so they sue and get a big payoff. That’s what it’s all about. Too many lawyers.
If I were to write a book about this…
“Abattoir 5″ would be the title
r.i.p. Kurt, glad you didn’t have to see the finale of this fiasco
Dimedropped– keep up the good work!
The only way RE prices will come back to being affordable is by the work of “honest” appraisers. With honest appraisals the comp will have to come down.
Plus it offers a “little” protection against paying to much by the poorly informed buyers. The last thing this RE melt down needs is for the cycle of foreclosures to continue indefinitely.
I guess Appraisers will have to drag the kicking and screaming RE agents and sellers into the sunlight of price reality.
It is a dirty job, but someone has to do it.
For all those people who think Atlanta won’t be affected by the housing/credit bubble. Here’s a graph of the percentage of subprime loans issued in 2005 and foreclosure hot spots in the metro Atlanta area. Home prices areas with lower foreclosure rates “start” around $400K and these are smaller, aren’t in great condition, are in questionable neighborhoods, or are so far out the commute is 1.5 - 2.5hrs on average.
http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/ajc/business/foreclosures.jpg
And late mortgage rates skyrocket and foreclosure rate is predicted to only get worse:
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/business/stories/2007/10/03/delinquents_1004.html
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/business/stories/2007/10/04/delinquents1004.html?COXnetJSessionIDbuild56a_prod=rdPQHHfChPRRSWQqvH2DGhJ5×2vhjNS09plDDm7C5LgvMlpTSJw0!350902392&UrAuth=aNaNUOcNZUbTTUWUXUVUZTZU\UWUbUaUZU\U]UcTYWYWZV&urcm=y
The problem is growing so lenders are starting to accept short sales on homes in Atlanta:
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/homefinder/stories/2007/10/05/johnadams_1007.html
This is only the beginning of falling prices in Atlanta.
Looks like a no-brainer to lend money to this fella. Money makes the world go around I guess:
http://www.prosper.com/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=210398
This guy claims that he is submitting 8 loans right now, and that he averages 7k per loan in commissions per loan. Why then does he need a loan for 20k at 27% then?
Age of Riches
$6 Million for the Co-op, Then Start to Renovate
http://tinyurl.com/yrlxb5
“Getting the very best of New York real estate is an extension of who they think they are; it goes with the rest of their résumé and portfolio,”
who do they think they are? last time I looked we are human animals that are supposed to look out for each other.
“This trend is not going to go away because there are so many people who want these apartments,” she explained. “There’s the new rich and there’s the old rich. There’s the poor rich and the rich rich.”
the poor rich!!! now i’ve heard everything. Where are our values I ask the forum?
New York City?!!
Hedge fund nazis…
No redemption for you!
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10062007/business/freeze_is_on_at_giant_mortgage.htm
Enzed isn’t looking so good…
“Homeowners face new pain as mortgage interest rates rise”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10468367
October 3, 2007
Paul Campaign Raises Over $5,000,000 In Third Quarter
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA - The Ron Paul 2008 presidential campaign raised $5,080,000 during the third quarter of 2007. That is an impressive 114 percent increase from the second quarter.
Cash on hand for the Paul campaign is $5,300,000.
“Dr. Paul’s message is freedom, peace and prosperity,” said Paul campaign chairman Kent Snyder. “As these fundraising numbers show, more Americans each day are embracing Dr. Paul’s message.”
Ron Paul’s 114 percent increase is in stark contrast to the decrease suffered by Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain. Romney’s fundraising was down 29 percent. Giuliani was down 40 percent. McCain was down 55 percent.
Another major story that, not surprisingly, has been buried in the media’s memory hole.
October 6, 2007
Take note of what you have done.
“Jaw-dropping.” “Impressive.” “Stunning.”
Paul’s “$5 million fundraising haul in the last three months…is forcing campaign observers to sit up and take notice.”
“Paul’s newfound clout was on full display Thursday afternoon, when he sat down with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer for an interview on the Situation Room.”
Paul “emerges from quasi-anonymity to shock the political world with a $5 million quarterly fund-raising haul — a figure the other GOP candidates ignore at their own peril.”
These are just a few of the many such reactions by the media to the $5 million you raised for the Paul campaign last quarter. Note your accomplishment. Enjoy your success. Take a breath — but not for long. Because our new goal for the fourth quarter is $12 million, and six days have already passed.
Remember at the end of last quarter how much publicity we received when we had more cash in the bank than John McCain? That $2.4 million got us $10 million worth of national publicity. But this quarter was even better. The $5 million you raised has already generated $20 million worth of publicity nationwide these last few days. And the news stories and interviews with Dr. Paul keep coming.
Our communications director Jesse Benton reported yesterday on the high number of television, radio and newspaper interviews there have been since we reported the $5 million quarter a few days ago. His list was long and extensive. Afterwards, he summed up by saying, “It’s been our biggest day — no question.”
We’ve moved up a couple of steps. Not by luck, but by hard work. We’ve proven that Ron Paul’s “just the Internet” support is real, and that we are doing what is necessary to win the Republican nomination. But we cannot let our recent success quiet our energy, focus or effort.
We are not finished. We have just started.
Ron is knocking on the door of Rudy, Mitt, John and Fred. Our job is to push that door open. And we have only 87 days to do it.
Kent Snyder
Chairman
Ron Paul 2008
I’d love to support the guy but he can’t win. I gave my allotted $$ to Thompson.
Hmm. And I guess there is no housing bubble either. Prices can’t go down… there are no such things as fundamental values… lol
http://cosprings.craigslist.org/rfs/441746556.html
I just had to share this opportunity with you, my HBB friends - you, too, can gain $150K in instant equity! [Assuming you're gullible enough to take appraisals at face value].
You wonder if that David Hocking in the listing is this guy
I watched Suze Orman on Larry King the other night and was surprised that she was telling folks to buy a home now. Normally, I think she gives decent advice but not this time, I think she is early.
I posted something over an hour ago and it still hasen’t shown up.
Business Week’s cover story this week is on the bubble bursting. The cover shows one of those inflated playground “bouncy houses” deflating.
(Haven’t read it yet, on my reading pile for my CA -> Florida flight tomorrow)
OCTOBER 15, 2007
COVER STORY
Housing: That Sinking Feeling
By Mara Der Hovanesian and Christopher Palmeri
Homeowners are getting slammed as builders slash prices. The big question: Will this shock treatment help hasten the end of the painful downturn?
Las Vegas was once the hottest of the red-hot real estate markets. But when sales really started choking up last year, developer KB Home (KBH ) did something drastic. Determined not to be caught with a big backlog of unsold homes through one of the industry’s notorious down cycles, the builder started slashing prices. A lot. In the 1,400-home Huntington community, a subdivision of two-story stucco houses west of the famed Strip, homes that started at $320,000 a year ago are now listed for $270,000–just a starting point for potential deals.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_42/b4054001.htm