Any Fire Sales In Your Housing Market?
What’s going on in your housing market this weekend? Open houses? Price reductions? Here are a few observations from the press:
“Many Tampa Bay area real estate agents and builders say local new home sales began slowing this fall, and some think it’s because the investors who helped launch the market into the stratosphere the past two years have gone away. (Broker) Bob Memoli said speculators built homes in the Key Vista community of southwest Pasco County with hopes of flipping them at big profits. Many, however, have been left holding the bag, thanks in part to higher interest rates and posthurricane insurance rates.’”
“‘My partner and I listed one of them,’ Memoli said. ‘It’s a beautiful house and priced right, but we just can’t move it.’ Tarpon Springs housing analyst Marvin Rose also cited the role of speculators. ‘The common wisdom is investors are leaving the market, rapidly,’ he said.”
According to the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS, active listings increased by 120 percent from 3,262 in February 2005 to 7,174 last month.”
“‘For Sale’ signs have become a common lawn fixture in Sacramento. Diane Anderson’s home in North Natomas is no exception. After two years, she’s ready to sell. But lately, selling your home is proving to take some patience. ‘We haven’t has as much traffic as we hoped for, there are still a few coming every week,’ said Anderson. Despite new homes springing up at every corner, Sacramento is holding up better than the national average. ‘We are glad we sold our house when we did,’ said one homeowner.”
“Real estate agents are forecasting a buyer’s market for the next three to five years in the Santa Maria Valley. Development has outpaced the demand, giving home buyers too many choices. Agents say the market won’t become competitive again until all the housing projects in the Santa Maria Valley are filled. As a result, they predict it could take eight to ten years before homeowners benefit from double digit appreciations.”
“Some realtors say this may not be the right time for short-term residents to purchase a home.’A short-term deal like that, you really need to look at your costs and what you can afford to do and understand the market’s gonna fluctuate and do the cyclical deal,’ says realtor Jeff Gibbs.”
“‘There are no fire sales going on here,’ said Greg Berkemer, executive vice president of the California Desert Association Realtors. ‘This is not yet the classic buyer’s market where people come in, low-ball the price and pick up anything they want.’”
“Analysts believe that the growing backlog of unsold homes will add to downward pressure on prices in the months ahead. ere’s how 2006 is shaping up so far compared with a year ago in the Coachella Valley. UNSOLD PROPERTIES: March 2005: 3,140, March 2006: 7,351, Change: 134 percent increase. HOMES SOLD (Jan. 1-March 20) 2005: 2,288, 2006: 1,701. Change: 26 percent decrease.”
Or maybe your observation is from a letter to the editor, like this one from Florida. “OK, we get it, the house-selling market has had a big slowdown! Do we really need our favorite paper to write the bad news almost every day? Do we really want such a negative attitude for our area?”
“Those of us who have a house to sell know that the feeding frenzy of the last year is over, but we have seen many houses in our neighborhood sell for good prices too.”
“Why not compare the real estate market this year to that of two years ago, when things were more ‘normal’ for our area. It will make all those people looking for homes feel they are making a good investment.”
“Many, however, have been left holding the bag, thanks in part to higher interest rates and posthurricane insurance rates.”
Higher interests rates are only an extremely recent development. I’m not sure when the higher insurance rates kicked in, although I’m sure they will contribute to fewer sales.
These brokers always want to ignore the biggest reason why sales stopped - prices that are so out of whack that even irrational folks quit buying. To admit this would be to admit that their dream of instant riches, for doing nothing more than holding a house for a few months, will never be realized and that the nightmare has just begun.
Well said - that cuts to the heart of the matter.
I second the motion…
ouch……..short but powerful
A friend of mine is trying to sell a house in the Mockingbird/Abrams area for 400K. Now mind you, this is an 1800 square foot 1940s area place albeit on an attractive creek lot. The realtor left her printed material telling her that if she prices 20% above the market, she has only a 1% chance of selling. 10% above, a 5% chance. Market price - 50%. I think she’s on drugs (my friend) if she thinks she’ll get anywhere near that. She paid 200K a year ago and put about 50K worth of upgrades in.
Sounds like she’ll be lucky to clear her upgrade money. I never understand putting that much dough into something your gonna flip.
I don’t know what kinds of upgrades are included in the $50K that your friend spent, but a lot of people forget that you don’t always get 100% recoup on all home improvements. They can call them upgrades if they want to but it doesn’t mean anything if they weren’t the “payback” type of improvements.
If people would just do their homework. These kinds of expenditures and the expected returns deserve a well thoughtout plan and discussions with people who could give them guidance. Too often folks just fly by the seat of their pants.
BayQT~
A N Arizona flat fee RE outfit ran a huge ad with the following:
‘ATTENTION REALTORS maybe you’re one of those people who went into real estate with high expectations and it just hasn’t happened. You’re not willing to play that old real esate game of telling prospective sellers that you can magically get them a huge price for their property, knowing full well that after you get the listing you’ll have to start pressuring the seller to reduce the price or it will never sell…No, we’re not leaving town. No, we’re not going out of business.’
More ‘brand new’ homes for rent everywhere.
Uh Ohhhh… the SAAVY realtors have started to cannibalize their own profession by BADMOUTHING the others. Do I sense a Realtor (TM) Civil WAR about to break out??
I think the Realtor ™ of the past 40 years is a dying breed. In Internet, increased competition from discount brokers, comissions that don’t reflect the work performed, etc. will doom the current model.
The only thing left is access to the MLS. Even that is under fire.
Thats funny I’d like to see that ad in full context. Realtor Civil War hardly. The flat fee’ guys can spout off now. Let’s see if he’s running that same ad a year hell 6 mo’s from now.
Housingheads now begging their newspaper to compare prices to 2004 … just as many have foreseen. Next we’ll see the beggars wanting to compare prices to 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 when the things were more ‘normal’.
Maybe the newspaper could do a more apt comparison: to 1929. Here is a delightful sampling of the “pros” of that era, assuring the sheeple that everything was just hunky-dory; there would be no “hard landing” (cough).
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html
Wow, does that look familiar? Hehehe, history really does repeat itself. Thanks for sharing.
Why not compare the real estate market this year to that of two years ago, when things were more “normal” for our area. It will make all those people looking for homes feel they are making a good investment.
Is this for real??????? So what she is so kindly suggesting we should all agree that everything is normal and play “nice” so that those “who have house to sell” can go on and sell their house to some unsuspecting buyer who has no idea they are getting into a lifetime of servitude on a house that keeps loosing its value….
I just remembered: I have gotten four different Help-U-Sell flyers with multiple listings within two weeks! This is only alarming because I use to only get them every other week. Prices are discounted from the peak, but not alarming yet.
“Why not compare the real estate market this year to that of two years ago, when things were more ‘normal’ for our area. It will make all those people looking for homes feel they are making a good investment.”
–Uh-huh. Just like said a few days ago. People will define the bubble appreciaition years a normal in their minds. (I would argue that 2002-2005 was all a bubble era.) They can’t let go of it! They can’t understand or accept what a true normal maket is… Taking a few months to sell, and likely having to haggle a bit with the ultimate buyer.
“Why not compare the real estate market this year to that of two years ago, when things were more ‘normal’ for our area. It will make all those people looking for homes feel they are making a good investment.”
That’s what I did lady. And it sucks. How am I supposed to feel good about purchasing a home for $800k today that sold for only $600k two years ago? Because it will sell for $1M two years from now? HA!
In Portland, ME, inventory of single family homes on Realtor.com just bumped up for the first time since early February. This is based on 3 zips: 04101-03.
Portland Only # SFH
9/6/05 186
9/19/05 223
9/29/05 224
11/3/05 248
12/5/05 241
1/3/06 210
2/2/06 212
3/3/06 204
3/8/06 195
3/9/06 189
3/18/06 178
3/25/06 184
It could be that the spring market is just starting in earnest. It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. We know someone who has had a house on the market since last June, has not had a single offer and gets about two showings a month now. They are upside down and are eroding their savings but refuse to cut their price anymore. They’ve made one small cut, but I wonder if that wasn’t too little too late. If prices start to drop, such small cuts will only lead them further into the abyss I would think. I want to tell them their price is probably about 30% high, but thye’d tell me I was nuts.
Hang in there Portland, Mainer…
They may call you NUTS, but THEY will be left HOLDING THE (empty) BAG.
hang in there buddy. let’s get you nice sfr for say……. $155,000.
it’s coming
Hey Portland Mainer. I read Brunswick Times Record this weekend and it spells out some of the projected effects of the looming BNAS closure. They say 700 base housings units and 1600 off-base housing units and rents will become available between 2010 and 2011. Thats only 30 miles away from you. I would bet that will soften the housing market quite a bit for a pretty reaching radius from the base. Even if you have no desire to leave Portland, others might.
I read in the newspaper a while ago that at the current sales rate which is sure to slow, and with no further building, it would take 15 years to burn off that inventory.
I hadn’t read the exact stats, but I had figured this would add quite a bit of inventory. If an airport or industrial park or whatever goes in there, that may soak up some of the housing, but indeed there will be a surplus. Brunswick was recently named one of five top retirement towns by CNN I think because of Bowdoin, the hospitals, its sophistication and beautiful location. I think seniors are allowed to audit classes at Bowdoin for free or very inexpensively. So I suppose some retirees will soak up some of the excess housing as well, along with general population growth.
But I think you are right, it will pull some folks out of Portland. There are already quite a few Portland workers who commute in from as far aaway as Lewiston, just because Portland is so pricy.
I’m not sure how good Brunswick’s public schools are. I know I’ve seen SATs in the 600’s, which is impressive, but I was never quite sure why they’d be that high. Certainly not everyone has the good genes that might come from professors at Bowdoin.
We live in Cumberland, which has very good schools, so we would hope we would not be affected directly, only indirectly.
I’ve tried a few real estate agents in Mesa, Az looking for bargins but thus far none would make offers on my behalf (offering $210,000 for a 260,000 home). They’ll go five-ten grand under if pushed but none of the agents I’ve spoke with were interested taking my low-ball offers to the sellers. However, where I’ve been looking (East Mesa) sellers are still getting close to asking price. Maybe 5-10 grand under original selling price.
You know what I’d do in that situation if I wanted a place and was ready to buy? I’d type up a written offer sans any realtor commissions, and put it in the guy’s mailbox with the notation that he would save a considerable amount of money by cutting the agents out altogether. This would only work I suppose if you were a cash buyer or had a loan commitment and could close quickly. Screw those crooked realtors.
Yea, his real problem is the term “agents” which either means he’s running around to listing agents trying to be a smart guy or he’s switching agents like he’s changing his underwear. Bad idea either way. Along with your idea which is good if he has the nuts and the time. He should try finding one agent prove he’s ready to buy “ie: show him the money” give him 5 to 10 addresses that he’s interested in and let the agent submit them and go too work. In a freefalling market like phoenix I find it hard to believe he’s not getting play on what he believes to be lowball offers. For future reference a lowball offer is 50% of list and refusing to go above 65%
Exactly. Any agent who won’t take a $210 offer on a $260K house to the buyer in a falling market wouldn’t be my agent for long, whether I was the buyer or the seller.
I thought that realtors were obligated to take ANY and ALL offers to the sellers. At least, that is what we were taught when I had my real estate license for two years in the 80’s. These agents are in direct violation of their own code of ethics. Report them to their board, and tell the next one you approach that you will pay an extra half percent on top of his half of the commission to him or her if they get your offer accepted. Don’t put up with this collusion.
Code of Ethics is not law, Code of Ethics is voluntary for people who actually pony up the fee to be a realtor. Many do not. Agents are not obligated to present every offer it is suggested they do so. And most do. Hell his was probably presented. But presented like this.
Agent: Hey Mr Seller (Laughing) Yea got an offer on your place today. Well it was for 20% below market (Laughing) Can you believe that knucklehead. Where do they find these people.
Seller: Oh (laughing) I would never accept something like that.
Agent: Neither would I I’ll just toss this one in the trash. we’ll wait and see what else comes up. Whaddya think?
Seller: Yea sounds good to me.
Versus having an agent call up the agent and having a whole different type of negotiation/conversation taking place. It’s not in your best interest to have a listing agent who’s representing the sell submit your lowball offer. Learned that during the last downturn.
Agents aren’t suppose to present frivolous offers. That newbe agent thinks the 210k offer is frivolous. Frivolity is in the eyes of the beholder?what say you? Satisfactory?
I get what your saying but in a falling market with daily inventory rising by mass bunches and the days on market getting longer and longer I would hardly call $210 on a $260 list price as frivolous. I would call that a good thing. I doubt it’s a newbie agent they tend to run with everything because most of them don’t have the reserves to be picky with their deals. Those are agents who have been in the business for awhile and dont want those kind of comps tainting their investments.
It was my understanding too that (in AZ at least) the sellers agent is legally obligated to present any written offer to the seller. I had an AZ real estate license for a while although I never went into that business.
If you’ve got the time to spend on it, it would be good to push it through whatever legal avenues you can.
Is that legal?
Never mind.
‘This is not yet the classic buyer’s market where people come in, low-ball the price and pick up anything they want.’
Note the use of the word “yet”. A year ago, that slip woudn’t have happened. It’s the subtle things like this that signal the ongoing reversal in psychology.
「「米新築住宅販売件数の大幅減少でドル急落118.50円→117.40円」
Wonder if above will be postable (Japanese).
Front page of Yahoo Japan News has the dollar taking a fairly large one-day fall against the yen. The article credits the announcement of February new housing numbers for the sudden exchange rate movement. It says that the Americans were hesitant to release the numbers, seeing as national mood teeters on the head of a pin. There were comments on the point that too much delay in releasing the data would only worsen the situation.
Just thought y’all would like to know.
Nice to see another perspective. Thanks for the post! BTW, I love your “we rent” dance!
Could you post the link? The article I found with this headline lacked the comments about “teetering” etc.
Sorry, the “pin” description of the American position was my addition - not from the article. I should have made it a parethetical:
“…It says that the Americans were hesitant to release the numbers (seeing as national mood teeters on the head of a pin). There were comments on the point that too much delay in releasing the data would only worsen the situation.”
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20060325-00000001-fis-brf
-parenthetical
John Lansner has some March data on OC, ain’t pretty.
http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/
Mid-March: Prices +9.6%; volume -21.6%
Forget the first two months of the year. They’re wacky. It’s now prime shopping season. And the first peek — fresh stats from DataQuick — shows if the current trends hold, March will be be the fifth straight month of year-over-year sales declines and the worst one-year drop since October 2004. For 22 business days ended March 15:
Median price Change from ‘05 Volume Change from ‘05
Resale houses $698,000 +14.1% 1,847 -26.9%
Resale condos $469,000 +13.0% 912 -28.1%
New residences* $649,500 -21.2% 531 +33.4%
All homes $627,000 +9.6% 3,290 -21.6%
Note the new residences number:
Price down, volume up…….All others, price up, volume down.
Could there be a connection?
$879,000 Burlingame, CA DOM:2 MLS # 616069
“CUTE UPDATED HOME READY FOR A NEW OWNER”
The current owner just purchased this property last month for $795,000. Don’t know if there was a change of circumstances or heart or whether this was actually planned as a flip from the get-go.
Wow… 100k appreciation in (punches into calculator)… 30 days. Nice. Not to be nasty but these people need to be destroyed.
They are looking for the greater fool, wouldn’t you say?
BayQT~
Listings for SFH on the CA Central Coast have been climbing since last September, and now have doubled compared to a year ago (1200 in March 2005, 2400 in March 2006).
“…a beautiful house and priced right, but we just can’t move it.”
I guess it ain’t priced right, then.
“OK, we get it, the house-selling market has had a big slowdown! Do we really need our favorite paper to write the bad news almost every day? Do we really want such a negative attitude for our area?”
GET OVER IT Maam…
This is a NATIONAL NEWS STORY ABOUT EVERY TOWN U.S.A.
No amount of DATA + INFORMATION SUPPRESSION will stop this trainwreck waiting to happen.
Sorry for the reality check, maam.
What he really is saying is, “can’t you guys let up so the few remaining fools and illegal aliens who can’t read will come buy my overpriced crackerbox with 3 helocs on it and I can get out with my posterior still attached!” Again, these people never complained about media coverage when it was moving things in their favor and forcing the stupid to overpay for things.
TX Chick 57,
You said it better than I…
and I am cool with that
Saw a couple sold signs up today in Escondido, north county san diego. Completely mexican neighborhood - I call Escondido the
nicest city in Mexico. There’s still a few suckers left apparently, and
their english is muy malo. This is the bounce of the gato muerta.
What was the definition again?
“News is what someone, somewhere, wants to suppress. Otherwise it’s Public Relations.”
Ain’t that the truth!
Future real fire sale. Was at Yahoo’s newsite.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060325/ap_on_re_us/life_on_the_fault_3
AYWARD, Calif. - New cracks appear in Elke DeMuynck’s ceiling every few weeks, zigzagging across her living room, creeping toward the fireplace, veering down the wall. Month after month, year after year, she patches, paints and waits.
ADVERTISEMENT
“It definitely lets you know your house is constantly shifting,” DeMuynck said. So do the gate outside that swings uselessly 2 1/2 inches from its latch, the strange bulges in the street and the geology students who make pilgrimages to her cul-de-sac.
DeMuynck could throw her paint brush from her front stoop and hit the Hayward Fault, which geologists consider the most dangerous in the San Francisco Bay Area, if not the nation. Like others who live here, she gets by on a blend of denial, hope and humor.
It’s the geologists, emergency planners and historians who seem to do most of the worrying, even in this year of heightened earthquake awareness for the 100th anniversary of San Francisco’s Great Quake of April 18, 1906.
Several faults lurk beneath this region, including the San Andreas Fault on the west side of the Bay area, but geologists say the parallel Hayward on the Bay’s east side is the most likely to snap next.
“It is locked and loaded and ready to fire at any time,” said
U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Tom Brocher.
The Hayward Fault runs through one of the country’s most densely populated areas; experts say 2 million people live close enough to be strongly shaken by a big quake.
It slices the earth’s crust along a 50-mile swath of suburbia east of San Francisco, from exclusive hilltop manors overlooking the bay to Hayward’s humble flatlands. It snakes beneath highway bridges, strip malls, nursing facilities and retirement centers, and it splits the uprights of the football stadium at the University of California, Berkeley.
“A lot of these structures are going to come down,” said David P. Schwartz, chief of the USGS’s Bay Area Earthquake Hazards Project. He spoke with one foot on either side of the fault, marked by a crack that snaked through a parking lot in Hayward’s business district.
Before San Francisco’s Great Quake of 1906, on the San Andreas fault, there was the Great Quake of 1868 on the Hayward, a magnitude 6.9 rumbler that killed five people. Severe quakes have happened on the Hayward Fault every 151 years, give or take 23 years, meaning it is now into the danger zone.
Experts forecast the next big one will be in the potentially lethal 6.7 to 7.0 range. The Association of Bay Area Governments estimates it would wipe out some 155,000 housing units, 37,000 in San Francisco alone.
The ground on each side of the fault could shift 3 feet, meaning two objects on opposite sides could be abruptly carried a total of 6 feet apart, Schwartz said.
The Hayward Fault runs directly beneath Eden Jewelry and Loan, but the men working in the pawn shop shrugged when asked if they fear a quake.
“Honestly, it’s a non-issue,” said Saul Gevertz, 64.
The building was renovated about five years ago and now is essentially an enormous steel cage, designed to flex in an earthquake without breaking, said one of the building’s co-owners, Darrell Davidson.
“I’m not worried-worried. I’ve thought about it,” said Davidson, 47. “I think we’re in good shape. I hope to God we are.”
Nickey Avila acknowledged some alarm when informed that the fractures in the pavement outside his house were caused by the fault.
“I’m thinking one day it’s going to move, but if I survive it, I’ll be able to say I survived one of the biggest quakes of all time,” said Avila, 23.
The quake could come at any moment.
“If it moved while we were walking, it wouldn’t surprise me,” Schwartz said during a tour of Hayward’s misaligned street curbs, warped concrete gutters and abandoned buildings. They include the former Hayward City Hall, deemed too dangerous to occupy because it’s right on the fault.
The City Hall was built in 1930, during an unusually quake-free period after the Great Quake of 1906 released stress on all faults in the region.
A “virtual tour” developed by the USGS shows the Hayward Fault slashing through identifiable structures, like DeMuynck’s house, but she is resolved not to worry.
“There’s dangers all around us, all the time, so if we thought about those dangers all the time, we wouldn’t have anything else to think about,” said DeMuynck, 62. “We just come home and say, ‘The house is still here.’ We’re OK for another day.”
___
To paraphrase:
“OK, we get it, the Bay Area is on fault zones! Do we really need our favorite web portal to write the bad news all the time? Do we really want such a negative attitude for our area?”
If you are going to be affected by it, it’s not news. If you are unaware of the Bay Area’s faults, then it’s sensationalistic journalism.
This is a macabre thought, but the big bushfires a couple of years back did wonders for RE prices where I live in Canberra . . .
On a particular stretch of beach in the panhandle of Florida there is now an 84 month supply of condos. Yes, you read that correctly: 84.
Then there’s this house for sale that I fell in love with a few months ago. The price continues to drop:
First 210K…
then 207K…
then 196K…
and dropped yesterday to $189K. I did the math, adding what they paid plus ~6% annual appreciation and I come up with $165K. However, even if it comes down to near that price again, I’m still apprehensive. It’s in a flood zone, very close to the water, and well, you know Florida’s recent hurricane history. That is what has me the most pessimistic about buying, followed closely by skyrocketing property taxes and practically non-existent insurance.
Where is this 84 month supply of condos? Anywhere near Destin?
I’m guessing Panama City Beach. It’s truly impressive how many old motels have been torn down there and replaced with condo towers in the past two years. IMO, it’s even more overbuilt and overrun with flippers than Miami is.
As for the flood zone issue, after Ivan and Katrina, I wouldn’t buy a primary residence in these parts unless it was at least 25 feet above mean sea level.
Also means that IF the Global Warming catastrophists happen to be right, you’ll still be 5 feet above mean sea level in 2100.
The Tampa Tribune today has a huge magazine insert for the annual “Tampa Bay Parade of Homes” (the largest PH edition I’ve ever seen), and a huge front page story on how all the Boomers want to move to Florida and live in downtown condos, so they don’t have to drive everywhere. While, downtown St. Petersburg is designed to be pedestrian friendly, no other large city in Florida is, and downtown Tampa is a nightmare for pedestrians, besides being almost mind-bogglingly ugly.
If one believes the Tribune, real estate is wonderful here, expensive condos are the wave of the future, and developers are artisans. The Parade of Homes insert is, of course, paid for by real estate advertising, so it would seem that the developers have more money than God, and are spending tons of it finding suckers to buy their jerry-built “dream houses.”
I posted a big of “flipper - FB ads from Craigslist.org over on SoCalMortguy’s site - http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com Some of them are real gems - take a gander.
Then let the boomers wanting to retire to Tampa go to their parade of homes. I bet there will be plenty of space.
i’ve been watching these investors sweating it out in tucson
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=988303
They have their boards we have ours. On a positive note at least they admit their intentions and appear to recognize their mistakes. Not that it will help them much, but still.
cereal,
That’s way too funny!!!
Yep, folks. It does appear that it’s **finally** happening. I won’t be doing my “happy dance” just yet, but I’m warming up. We should know for sure by Aug/Sept, IMHO.
It saddens me to see this flipper eating dirt:
From that investor blog, I just HAD to go reading some of the posts…
WOW, most of the people seem to have level heads, but when you have people new to “real estate investing” coming in and EXPECTING prices to double in Phoenix in the next three to five years, you just have to shake your head in disbelief. Kinda makes you think that this could end REALLY BADLY if people like this have been pulling out equity to follow through on ideas like this…
http://tinyurl.com/nyc4s
“Hi. I really like this forum and how active it is.
It was refered by a friend. I have about 50k coming to me, I flew to PHoenix, Az (Glendale area) which is close to the new Football stadium, Hockey stadium, and indoor sport fishing.
I had a friends agent that showed me around and we found these brand new homes 4bd-2 bath, 1500 sq ft, for $220k. They want 3k right now to lock the contract. I pay in 4 months when the house is built. Is this a wise decision for me to get this and rent it out and hope that in 5 yrs, it has doubled at least?”
And in a later comment…
“Hi. Thanks for your comments. It helps a lot talking to knowledgable people. As for my 50k in shares coming to me, no i wasn’t planning to put 50k, actaully that house that i was mentioning i was planning only to put down 10% , which would be around 20k. I know that house will have negative cash flow ($200 to $400 max). I was hoping for that place to double in 3yrs to 5yrs from now.”
Here’s a posting from that flippers’ blog concerning Tucson:
“Just got back today from Star Valley. Ugh. I looked at four streets near mine. 23 properties for sale and 5 for rent. One offered a lease option and the sale price is 299k. A couple had zero down, I saw one FSBO. I have had mine on the market for about one month and have had zero calls on it. It is on the Tucson MLS. There are more people living in the neighborhood, but the amount of homes for sale is ridiculous. NTM, that isn’t counting the completed homes that are vacant with no signs. I doubt very much I will sell this house by June. In that case, I will get a tenant in there. I am also looking at adding a lease-option. This is most definitely not working out like I had planned. It appears szabo brought a lot of his investors to Star Valley and we all had the same idea-flipping. Ain’t happenin’ folks. Very disappointed in this.”
Who is Szabo?
i’m glad you asked
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=996313
Szabo is alocal idiot from Califoria I guess.
Who is Szabo?
Another try
Read about Who is Szabo.
LOL
His name was mentioned on Cereal’s link. Investors are starting to wonder if they made the right choice since everyone else is doing it.
Thought these listings were interesting. They’re in Escondido, San Diego.
Here’s a 6 bed/3 bath which is advertised as having all the rooms rented out (in addition to?) two unpermitted units in the back which are also rented out.
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=051086471&page=18&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_sandiego&cKey=ft44qzvr&source=SANDICOR
This beauty is approximately 1,300 SF, and is advertised as being a good home for “TWO OR THREE SMALL FAMILIES”!
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=061018457&page=2&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_sandiego&cKey=2xb2c402&source=SANDICOR
As some of you may know, Escondido has been having problems with multiple families living in SFHs. Wonder who they’re marketing these homes to. Needless to say, these are NOT good neighborhoods!
Here’s a flounder’s listing. It is a repo that was in the middle of being “upgraded”:
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=061005479&page=14&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_sandiego&cKey=nl2×61qk&source=SANDICOR
Don’t know anything about the area, but that house looks like a complate piece of crap and they want 400K for it???
OT: a realtor sent me an email of an article telling me “Good news! Portland’s prices are expected to not burst in the bubble”. Right after this good news, it also said that Portalnd is one of the three most overpriced areas to live in the country. I wrote back saying I couldn’t keep both pieces of information in my mind at the same time or my head would explode.
Here’s one we looked at in summer 2004 (La Costa, Carlsbad, San Diego). It sold for $785,000 after being reduced from about $879,000 in **2004**. It is now listed again for $810,000. They hope their purchase appreciated $25,000 since summer of 2004. Mind you, before 2004, homes were appreciating at around $100,000+ per year. That should show you how slow it’s been here since summer/fall 2004. Many neighborhoods have actually declined in the past two years. BTW, they haven’t actually **sold** it yet. Let’s see how much they lose after all the selling expenses.
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=062019221&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_sandiego&cKey=w1v42nf8&source=SANDICOR
Those are some ugly houses… you could pay me to live there!!!
check out these Bressi Ranch reductions in Carlsbad/North county San Diego.
OC renter,
Wow. That’s amazing. I live in the area and had no idea how much those had dropped. Good find!
Szabo has probably done well in Albuquerque. I just know that it is doing OK there.
I just returned from Cape Coral/Fort Myers, FL. Here are two observations:
1. I drove around a residential neighborhood North of College Parkway along Chiquita Parkway for about an hour on Wednesday, from 10:30 to 11:30 am. I noticed several unfinished houses. Then I noticed that most of them had no one working on them. So I began counting. I counted 66 unfinished houses and only 17 had a worker/workers on site. Only one had a crew at work(about 8 workers). The houses varied from foundations to roofs on and glass and doors installed.
Occupied houses were for sale in large numbers as were building lots throughout the area.
Can’t quite figure out why so many were sitting there without workers. I checked with the owner of a rental company that rents construction equipment. He reported that business was good.
Strange….
2. Visited a Condo project on Fort Myers Beach that was underway a year ago when I visited. There are 5 buidings, each containing 16 condos. Three were complete and were lighted - hallways and parking garage, exit signs, outdoor lighting. Landscaping was in for these three buildings and a finished drive into them.The other two were nearly complete. There were no signs of occupancy in the finished buildings. At 8:00 pm there were no lights on inside the units, there were no cars anywhere on the grounds or in the parking area under the units. There were no signs concerning units for sale. The condos appear to the naked eye to be on the large size and the building seemed upscale to me. Last year the buildings were just coming out of the ground to the first and second floor levels.
This developer has some expensive inventory on hand it appears and substantial carrying costs until he unloads them.
Ft. Myers is commuting distance to areas that were hit really hard by Charley, and there’s still a lot of rebuilding work going on since the storm. Wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the rental company biz was still going to sites near Punta Gorda.
While there haven’t been any fire sales here in central New Hampshire, I have seen a number of properties listed that have been price reduced. A few articles in local papers have said that the average time a house is listed before being sold is 131 days, up 8 days from a couple of years ago. But here in central NH the time is much higher. One home just down the street from me was on the market for well over a year and was price reduced almost $40K from it’s original $324K asking price. . I know of quite a few homes around here that have been on the market for a year or longer.
Some of that may be because we have a lot of seasonal housing, mostly summer homes, and the owners can afford to wait out buyers in order to get their asking price. On the other hand the real estate frenzy has tapered off across the board in this part of the state. I know the southern tier near the Massachusetts border is still dealing with hot market, but the price increases have moderated to 5% per year versus the 15% per year of the last five years.
Wow! People think it’s some inalienable right to have a home be some sort of super “ATM”
One’s primary residence is never an investment. It’s a place to live in.
And investments, by their very nature, have risk! That’s what makes them an investment.
Gee, I’m sorry your McMansion isn’t worth what you paid for it. Boo hoo hoo.
I posted some of the FBers with reductions on SoCalMortguy’s site
http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com
It is starting, but WAY overpriced here. Number of reductions is increasing, but nominal in terms of drop
ZIP 92831 (North Orange County, CA) still seeing massive increases in MLS. Was 80 to 90 throughout 2005 but now sits at 148. Median increasing for now… lots of new high-end and upgraded property listings.
I wonder if the woman in the letter to the editor is trying to sell due to her 4800.00 a year tax bill on her home. From 100 foot elevation on google earth it looks like a nice property in a subdivision but I wouldn’t pay 400 a month in taxes alone to live in Port Charlotte FL. Or if you add that to the fact that has a 1st and 2nd mortgage for around 300K I think she is pissed she can’t downsize to reduce her monthly payments by selling and moving into a condo. Information courtesy of public records and the tax collectors office for that county.
The classified are becoming the most entertaining part of the paper:
‘Luxury Condo in Cottonwood (AZ). 1Br 1Ba, AC Priced to sell before prices jump again. $149,900′
It must be the AC that makes it ‘Luxury’
To Ben,
No, me thinks it’s going to be the electricity costs to run that AC that will make the price ‘jump again’….
I ran across an open house in my Arlington VA neighborhood, and talked with the realtor. He gave the same old list of reasons to buy:
‘people were saying it was much cheaper to rent in 2005′
‘the NAR says prices will appreciate 6% a year now’
‘in 30 years you’ll be glad you bought instead of renting’
Then I busted out the facts that I know: 50,000 new units were hitting the market in the next 3 years, a trillion dollars in arms adjust in the next 2 years and renting is less than half the cost of owning.
Prices don’t seem to be budging though and he seemed to geniunely believe prices will be 12% more 2 years from now.
For the OC crowd….Remember those hi-rise condo towers at Jamboree and the 405? Anyone else notice how it looks like someone stole the lightbulbs out of almost all of them? Can’t think of another reason why it would be completely sold out and but mostly dark at night, every night.
One of our apt neighbors here just bought over in Woodbury. $600k for a condo/townhome. Ouch.
A realtor tried to explain to me that builders only allow 5-10% purchases by investors. I think that’s B.S.
I drive by those towers every day. Once in the morning about
5am (dark outside) and later that afternoon.
I have never seen more than a few lights
on and they appear to be work lights at that. Very different.
PRECONSTRUCTION TOURS (NON TUCSON)
I thought Szabo was some lucky flipper that was mentioned earlier that has made some money and going around. This dude is pimping tours to get sheeple on buses. Is he a scam dude? His website link was posted above, and this from his site.
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