Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For October 9, 2007
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Isn’t there someone here who is keeping track of suspicious fires, like this one at a Hovnanian construction site?
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/10/highrise_blaze_battled_in_jers.html
I should probably start something myself….
what immediately caught my eye was .. fire officials said they suspect began near the roof of the 18-story K. Hovnanian building.
no arsonist worth his salt starts a fire on a roof or on the top, 18th floor, in this case.. because flame moves upward.
But ya never know.. maybe this one was planned really well.. only a certain, limited amount of damage was intended and they knew the water system only went up 14 floors..
Even the arsonists are subprime.
You’d think by now, I would know not to be drinking while reading this blog. Soda all over the place.
Hey, Russell, I can relate. I almost spit out a smoothie last week.
–
You will go to jail if you get caught “start something.”
Jas
I think he meant start a site to keep track of suspicious fires.
living in the past:
Columbia — The nation’s slumping housing market didn’t dissuade Jessica Gaines from jumping into her new career as a real estate agent. After 10 weeks of training, six weeks on the job and statistics showing more homes are selling in South Carolina’s Midlands than elsewhere, the 31-year-old mom remains hopeful she’ll soon close her first deal.
Still, Gaines recognizes that her self-employed husband’s job will provide her a needed cushion if she doesn’t earn the $50,000 in commissions she’s shooting for in her first year on the job.
http://tinyurl.com/29y696
She will have plenty of competition, the big ticket items $500,000 to $1,000,000 are very slow. However the tract KB type developments are moving, but have slowed. Lots of incentives for the suckers out there, remember our state is dead last in education and we deserve it!
Look at the picture. She’s a real rocket scientist.
And is that a white guy with a do-rag she is talking to? That’s some high-end clientele she’s dealing with.
It’s a big white women but they couldn’t take a face shot because she forgot to put her teeth in.
lmao….. yeah. I see brain surgury in her future…… a lobotomy for her.
Racism rears its ugly head!
What???
Because the word “white” or “black” showed up some fool has to cry “racism”. That is why our race debate is such a mess. I’m a white guy. If I make fun of white people can that really be “racism”? I think you whiners that cry “racism” need to research what racism really is.
The funny thing is that Ms. Gaines is black! Her client with the do-rag is white.
I think we all agree here that there are stupid FB’s of all races!
Amen, NY, I’m sick of it. It’s just the PC nanny staters making sure that 1984 style Newspeak is enforced.
Txchick didn’t even make any reference to race, and still someone manages to spout off.
I dunno, that was my first thought too, as you can’t tell she’s dumb from the picture, only from the article.
So she’s a twit in a suit and too much eyeshadow. I know some very successful sales people who dress the same way. So what?
The first thing a person notices about another person is gender, and then race. So when someone tells you to look at a totally unremarkable photo with the teaser “check out how stupid this person is” and I see a female. A Black female. Okay, a Black female dressed for sales. Ummm … what about this picture says stupid?
Ms. Gaines looks Asian to me…i know why you think she is black…anyway, there are stupid people in every race, creed & religion (more in religion if you ask me)
I meant to write, “I don’t know why you think she is black,”
Well, she could be Filipino, true … I wasn’t sure either, but the way people were talking I figured the folks I was talking to took her to be Black.
OR….She could have a tan and be white..i don’t give a flying fvck what color she is. However, I could not help but notice her tacky SILVER eyeshadow…and the way she holds her pen indicates to me that she dots her ‘i’s with circles.
tacky bimbos come in all colors
i dunno about racism.. maybe this is a race to see how many different categories of people can be slammed with the least amount of information to work with, and in the shortest amount of time..
No racism here. I see another delusional blind person who believes in and obeys everything Central Planning dictates.
Stupidity alert…the half-wits employed by the PC Police are on the job.
Where’s Al Sharpton when you need him? I love old Al and his rhetoric. Funny stuff!
No–no racism. They both seem to be equally unphotogenic.
…it,” said Gaines, a former human resources manager who now works for…
That explains it.
I thought that said “HR executive” at some point in the article. Either way, I picked up on the same thing; who quits an executive/managerial level job to sling RE? RE sales are just one notch above (and not for long, as more and more people realize how fu**ed they are for listening to their RE soothsayer) user car salesmen.
That’s like quitting as CEO of GM to become a toliet cleaner at The Swamp (Gator’s stadium). WTF was this lady thinking? Yes, HR executive is not exactly considered by some to be a “high smarts” job, but still…… Going from that to RE? Come on lady!
And yes, she does look like she was dropped on her head a few too many times. And no, it does not matter if she is white or black; she just looks a few eggs short of a dozen….
It also says she’s a 31-year old mom. Could she have quit her job to take care of her kid, and is using real estate to work part time? If so, she’s not going to make 50K in commissions.
(please don’t resurrect the mommy-track battle. I’m just stating a possible scenario.)
And yes, she does look like she was dropped on her head a few too many times. And no, it does not matter if she is white or black; she just looks a few eggs short of a dozen….
I don’t see that. Maybe my standards are low.
Oh no! Not only racism but sexism as well. Wonder how many ism’s we can come up with here?
How about PCism? Or stupidism? Or get a lifeism?
OK, now we’re down to careerist remarks.
“Look at the picture. She’s a real rocket scientist.”
But she’s an “executive” TxChick.
I actually work with a real rocket scientist and he is one of the most socially clueless people I have ever met. BTW - he is underwhelming me daily with his ’smarts’
OMG she is what i am complaining about …Clueless idiots in HR, with no critical thinking skills. Who hire their own kind.
What happened to hiring ADULTS in HR you can have a conversation with?
HR Depts. are the 2007 answer for typing pools. Mostly female, PC, “positive”….”touchy-feely” types. Completely useless. Especially if your company also has compliance and legal depts.
RE seems a stupid career choice at this time, but she might be partially salaried .. perhaps has secretarial duties.
Smart, experienced talented agents can make money anytime. Like in today’s market, if someone knows how to convince a seller to drop his price, he’ll have virtually no effective competition and.. “Why, then the world’s mine oyster,
Which I with sword will open.”
With her current choice in professions, do you think she was at the top of her game in HR?
i can’t say .. maybe she wanted to work closer to home.
But maybe she discovered she had great talent in some facet of human resources and decided to try to capitalize on it in a field where she was free to “rise to the level of her own incompetence..”
But maybe she discovered she had great talent in some facet of human resources…
you mean like snooping?
I recall the time my workstation was temporarily located next door to HR. The staff spent their days cackling over the littlest bit of dirt they found on employees they were background-checking. This as documents piled up around them: I-9s, proofs of citizenship, drug test results, direct deposit authorizations…all confidential material.
They were having too much fun broadcasting other people’s business on the speakerphone to properly file away the sensitive information.
My guess is that she’s recieved a bunch of resumes from realtors. They all dress so ritzy and drive nice cars but were so goddamned stupid. If they could do it…why not her?
Drug test results? Where the heck did you work, Big Brother?
Hmmm..former human resources..Which company did she come from? Countrywide? Ameriquest? HomeBanc? New Century…?
The collapse of the US dollar and what it means for you (eventually higher interest rates).
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/WhatTheFallingDollarMeansForYou.aspx
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/KuwaitKicksSandOnTheDollar.aspx
The problem is countries like China that peg their currency to the Dollar. This is a currency war. The governments hands are tied and China holds tons of Dollars. I guess this is the way to stick it to China until they stick it to us. I guess our FED and gov’t is trying to keep our economy humming along since China is growing at an exponential rate. The pressure is on companies to invest overseas because that is where all the growth supposedly comes from. Well that is just a setup for a worldwide recession. One that is going to be very painful and lead to some serious economic problems at home and abroad.
So what happens when it collapses? Will the UN form a worldwide FED to control money supply globally?
“So what happens when it collapses? Will the UN form a worldwide FED to control money supply globally?”
LOL, the UN, LMAO! Yep, might as well streamline the global corruption and make sure it is efficient. But on the bright side, maybe my late father’s wish to see the UN admitted to Red China, rather than admitting Red China to the UN, will come true!
Ah UN bashing…all too easy and naive. We already have a worldwide FED. It’s called the IMF and World Bank and it works quite well…..for the clowns who run it.
I guess the Bank of International Settlements is the closest thing to a “global Fed” there is today. The IMF and World Bank are more like Fannie and Freddie used to be - quasi government agencies to subsidize the poor.
what backwoods redneck still use a term like “red China” in 2007?
palmetto do.
I do, along with Communist Running Dogs. Is that a problem??
Please do forgive me. I haven’t been fully “indoctrinated” as yet.
I do too, along with Communist Running Dog. Is that a problem??
what backwoods redneck still use a term like “red China” in 2007?
Last time I checked the Peoples Republic of China was still a dictatorship run by the Communist Party (and their flag is still red).
I do.
I never use “China” without Red or Communist in front of it. Not a redneck, well not totally, but I do think it is important to recognize evil when one sees it.
and it just goes to show you how much people, even some of the intelligent folks on this blog, have drunk the corporate kool-aid. The totalitarian model as demonstrated by Red China is a corporate globalista’s wet dream. Now, if only they could get those fat, lazy US citizens who won’t do the work others will do to knuckle under and compete, then maybe we could open up those factories of ours again.
So were we to descend into the depths of financial hell tomorrow, would we still split hairs over vast amounts of nothing, otherwise known as political correctness?
I do. To be even more truthful, Communist chinese slave owners compete with the U.S.A. and the U.S.A. slave owners wannabe’s call it free trade.
Death to Redneckism!
Currently China is beating the US at the most important game of Capitalism which is why we see the currency tensions increasing. This is why the rednecks are scared. Not only are they running out of luck now, but conditions will make productivity growth the most important thing and in so doing cause people who dislike sophistication, learning, and other cultures to fall behind even faster. So be it. The Markets have spoken.
here, here…
and it just goes to show you how much people, even some of the intelligent folks on this blog, have drunk the corporate kool-aid. The totalitarian model as demonstrated by Red China is a corporate globalista’s wet dream.
I think that we all know that. But at least for the time being we still do not live in a totalitarian dictatorship, even though we are careening dangerously down that path.
“The problem is countries like China that peg their currency to the Dollar”
The problem is fiat currency in the first place. Throw out the fiat currency and bring back the gold standard.
Agreed but you know why they brought the fiat currency in? The money was backed by gold. As soon as we started importing more than we exported, foreign countries had all these “dollars”. France basically said, give us gold instead and with our depleting old reserves Nixon basically signed in the fiat system. If the dollar was backed by gold, we wouldn’t hae any gold left because of the trade imbalances.
So how did our trade imbalance get so bad then? Lots and lots of debt.
What you are seeing now is a devaluing of that debt through inflation. That is why things are about to get much much worse.
I enjoy your posts and your analysis, Tom. What part of Florida are you in? South, North, Central, West Central?
The gold standard can not co-exist with fractional reserve banking. Therefore, we went off the gold standard in 1913 regardless of when gold was confiscated (1933. as a result of the totally foreseeable inflation/deflation cycle that happens with this fractional reserve system), Bretton Woods of 1944 or the Nixon international default in the early 70’s.
I’m in Sarasota and work in St. Pete. I used to live in South Tampa.
And just a note on my comment above, but that is why interest rates are going to go up and not down. These foreigners will demand a higher rate of return as our currency inflates and loses value.
Thanks, Tom. Wow, living in Sarasota and working in St. Pete, you’ve got sort of a bird’s eye view of the condition of West Central Florida. Every time I look at Craigslist and see condos in St. Pete listed for half a mil, I have to wipe the tears of laughter from my eyes.
” … that is why interest rates will go up and not down.”
And that is why cash will be king and that is why debt will suck.
As long as the “cash” is not in Dollars.
Mock the dollar all you want but it is the lack of dollars that is the root of the FBs problems.
Lack of dollars is right, so the FED will print more Problem solved!!!
That won’t do a lick to increase FB’s incomes. Just because we will have double digit inflation doesn’t mean any of us will be getting a cost of living increase.
Modern alchemy:
Paper can be currently turned into Gold
How much longer will this work?
I have a fundamentally different reason why the fiat system was brought in. If you have a gold-backed paper, then the economy can only grow as much as the gold supply. There are lots of good reasons why we shouldn’t stifle economic growth.
“then the economy can only grow as much as the gold supply. There are lots of good reasons why we shouldn’t stifle economic growth.”
Yeah, thin air makes a lot more sense than gold.
Because it takes a lot of hot gas to make a good bubble.
Using gold as a standard places far too much control of the monetary supply in the private sector. That’s a no-no for bankers and governments.
Gold was the basis of the Roman Empire, and it grew rather large. Also the US used gold until this century, and grew. Maybe you confuse inflation with growth?
Which is why it would have to be backed by Oil, as well.
Oil & Gold are nature’s bounty. Both are completely fungible, and desirable all over the world, no matter whom you are, or who has them.
When hyperinflation hits, these 2 items will be your talisman to show you what’s what, economically.
For instance, if we get hit with the 2002 Argentina style hyperinflation, Gasoline, will suddenly be around $9.00 a Gallon, and Gold, around $2200.00 a Troy Ounce, based upon genuine worldwide demand.
Are bankers and governments are doing a better job than the private sector? I think not.
Cap’t, Here is a primer on the “real bills doctrine” that allows for expansion of credit within a gold backed currency that is not inflationary. Apparently Adam Smith is the original inventor but Antal Fekete runs through the mechanics of it.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2005/0712.html
Guys, relax. I’m not advocating one system or another. I’m just saying a single-asset-backed paper has its flaws, too. You can either increase money supply or increase the velocity to facilitate transactions, and all I’m saying is that if you have a very strict asset-backed paper then you place obvious limits on the amount of transactions that can take place.
Thanks for that link, Auger-inn.
Transmutation Transportation is still available
Karat to Klimb on board?
The fiat zone is for unloading only
CCC
You are correct that there are real problems with the gold standard and the growth issue is real. We did have good growth under the gold standard in the 19th century but the gold/money supply expanded rapidly during that time due to huge production in California, S Africa, the Yukon, Australia, Russia, etc. Even with a return to the healthy deflation of that period, growth would be severely limited.
There is nothing inherently wrong with paper money. It is the inflation of that paper that is so destructive. Two major alternatives to a straight gold standard make sense: either a bi-metalic standard (silver and gold) or non-discretionary paper currency as recommended by Milton Friedman. Simply create an issuing authority (not a central bank) whose sole job it is to increase the money supply by a fixed amount each year based on L-T economic growth trends. It will be inherently counter-cyclical an use market forces to control the economy. If the economy grows too fast, the slower growth of money supply will restrain it. If it grows slowly or shrinks, money will become relatively more abundant and support renewed growth.
It wouldn’t eliminate the business cycle - nothing can do that. But it would prevent huge boom and bust periods fed by inflated money. And you get the benefits as long as you stick to the rules. If you abandon those rules, it will be obvious very quickly.
Deron,
Interesting point about the growth of the gold supply during those periods. Off to read Friedman’s paper.
CCC
I’ll take higher rates, hence higher yields. Bring it on. But nooooooooo…. We couldn’t have that. There are more FB’s, Clowns and KoolAde drinkers to enslave. When they have 99% of the population bound to the will of The Bank, their job is done.
The funny thing is, the Clowns think that higher interest rates on loans are bad for them.
Psst, I have a hint for you: it’s called a “deterrent.”
It builds this thing called “character”.
Pass it on.
One thing about being a Goldhug is, it teaches you how to save.
So what happens when it collapses? Will the UN form a worldwide FED to control money supply globally?
I’m guessing the UN would attempt to enact a global 50-year Grand Jubilee, when wealth is redistributed equally over 7 billion people — along with equalizing the standard of living.
According to historians, every century or so the money system collapses and wealth is redistributed. This is because People Are Smart and give all their money to bankers and savers and scammers and robber barons until the imbalance becomes insupportable.
The best we can hope for is an Argentina and not a French Revolution.
I’m ready to Tango…
Who’s with me!
Me.
The best we can hope for is an Argentina and not a French Revolution.
Don’t forget Weimar, and especially what came after it…
Une partie de moi est malade de la corruption et veut une révolution, mais la partie plus raisonnable de moi sait que ce serait la chute de mon pays d’origine.
I was fortunate once to spend an afternoon walking around the Grand Canal at Chateau Versailles speaking with a French man who wanted to practice his English. At one point he expressed deep regret that the revolution had toppled France from the heights of power. It was ironic that we were walking in a place that would not have been open to the general public prior to the revolution. His point was that he believed that France could have been so much more, so much greater, had it not sunk into turmoil. My response was that it was not the revolution, but the leadership that was the cause of the collapse. Had Royalty not betrayed the people there would have been no need to revolt.
Et étaient ici le stand encore.
–
“The problem is countries like China that peg their currency to the Dollar.”
The REAL PROBLEM is Americans consuming more than they are producing. For a sole superpower to blame foreigners is not proper.
Jas
Well, fiat currency and crazy credit allows this to take place, no? It’s not unlike the drug trade. Don’t put crack in front of an addict.
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Fiat currency, no. Debt push, yes.
It is lot easier to depreciate a currency on gold standard than is the case now!
In less than two years FDR depreciated the USD by more than 40% buy manipulating the price at which the USG would buy gold. Had he not stopped America would never become the super power that it did. He got scared and stopped! Thanks God.
Deflation is coming and Fed would be powerless to stop it in the absence of the gold standard. To fight deflation requires pushing more debt on the households, or the USG. USG can but households have reached their limit.
Jas
“The REAL PROBLEM is Americans consuming more than they are producing. For a sole superpower to blame foreigners is not proper.”
You’ve got to love someone who can’t make a coherent argument.
Evidence 1: Americans consume too much.
Evidence 2: Doh.
Conclusion: Therefore they cannot blame others.
Jas, I’ve read your comments for a while and I’ve made an argument myself.
Evidence 1: You take every opportunity to critisize the U.S..
Evidence 2: You peddle conspiracy theories (all Anti-American).
Evidence 3: You praise foreign states.
Evidence 4: You’re of foreign origin.
Evidence 5: You live in the U.S..
Evidence 6: You benefit from Americans.
Conclusion: You’re an ass.
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“Evidence 1: Americans consume too much.”
You must have a blind spot in your brain. I said, “Americans consuming more than they are producing.” Got it?
I hate people who blame others for their problems. Got it? A powerless people may have reason to blame but not the powerful.
Jas
Get familiar with the Amero.
Coming soon to a bank near you!
Why would Canada peg to US dollar? Or vice versa. Too many losers here.
When either one gets too strong, industry on that side suffers badly. Unless these aging industries drink the Euro koolaid, their competing interests will likely keep this from happening.
NAFTA cut everyone’s costs. A currency peg would benefit some at other’s expense. Somebody has to profit big enough to pay off all the pols to put this through … who?
A strong loonie makes it harder to export to the US, which is Canada’ #1 customer.
Some of these main stream reporters don’t understand how trade and currencies work. What’s more, they usually point to things when they are at extremes and after the event has already occured. If the dollar is already in the toilet compared to the Euro, how does that information help me today? Tell me something I don’t know.
What would stop the Fed from intervening to “contain” l-t interest rates?
They already do.
The Social Security System buys long term US Treasuries (~50%). Until the SS starts running out of funds (2015), bonds will be kept at artificially low interest rates.
The gov’t is going to have a blast when it has to start selling the IOU’s in the “SS Trust Fund” on the open market in order to pay SS benefits.
Industrial size bag of popcorn … unless they decide to tax young people like myself 50%. Then it’s hasta la vista baby.
You can only run up bills and dump them on the youth if the youth go along with it. Look, a certain amount is fair and I’m willing to pay more in taxes than I pay now (get back to me in April, though). But at some point they will have to tax very heavily … or cut the bennies. So we’ll see. Because at some point it gets ridiculously unfair.
“We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power.”
Chairman Alan Greenspan before the senate banking committee February 15, 2005
But at some point they will have to tax very heavily … or cut the bennies.
Most likely both.
This is one way of fighting the oversupply problem here in FL…
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/offbeat/2007/10/09/kamm.home.stew.wltv
Well, that’s really kinda funny…
Honestly, this is probably a good thing for the FB in this video. I don’t think insurance will cover it when you sh(t on your own floor after seeing how underwater you are after buying a home in a development that has a history of “raw sewage” backing up into your home.
This lady should fight to have the home declared a total loss and just start over. She can probably rebuild a home 2X the size for the insurance settlement; and hopefully put a larger concrete pad to make sure that she is not the low point on the septic system anymore!
Then the IRS can come after her for the phantom income that the lender wrote off on the bad loan. Recourse or no recourse, she is screwed. Better hope she has insurance.
Better hope she has insurance..
In any other state that has REAL insurance companies, like Allstate, State Farm and so on.. that would work…For Florida insurance…..GOOD LUCK! We still have people who can’t get into their properties since Wilma of 05. Insurance in Florida is like jumping out of a plane…with the pull strings missing on your parachute..alot of good the parachute is too you..FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY…
Flow of imports into U.S. ports slowing:
http://tinyurl.com/22o27s
“From 1997 through 2006, the number of containers handled by the twin ports grew by about 10% a year — from 6.5 million 20-foot containers to 15.8 million. But through August, the two ports were running less than 1% ahead of last year’s record pace of imports and exports.”
“It doesn’t appear that there will be any real growth this year,” said Don Snyder, director of trade relations for the Port of Long Beach.
“Imports of building materials plunged 20% in the second quarter from year-earlier figures, the most recent period for which detailed statistics are available. Furniture imports fell 17%, clothing declined 10% and footwear was down 8%, he said.”
“The tract [housing] business is relatively dead,” he said. “Vendors I know, they have lots of standing inventory. So if I had to guess, they’re not buying any more for a while.”
We already have enough crap.
Amen to that.
Testify, brothahs!
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“We already have enough crap. ”
No siree, we have lot more than enough crap and we will have to go on shopping diet to clear the usable crap. If not voluntarily, depression will put us on the shopping diet and to use the crap. Depressions have their usefulness — massive clean up. Some might even lose weight because they can’nt afford to go to McDonalds and Taco Bell.
Jas
Jas, I have some friends up in the NY corporate culture who are in deep fear about what will happen if consumption slows drastically.
Yep, time for a massive clean up.
–
Their fear is well founded!
Jas
Why is this a bad thing for the US? Why is having an economy based on trade deficits and ever increasing consumer debt based retail so essential?
–
You need to work thru the details of what will follow a drop in consumption in the US. 1930s were a dress rehearsal for what would follow.
Lower consumption –> loss of jobs –> loss of ability to borrow –> loss of confidence –> lower consumption –> …
Jas
Loss of jobs in China perhaps. And at retailers.
–
Not just cut back on spending on imported products; it would be in most areas except necessities. There is lot of discretionary spending, e.g., eating out, recreation, etc. (mostly made in the USA).
Jas
weakening dollar = imported goods costs rising = less imports
Not if your currency is tied to the dollar as are Asias’ currencies - Japan, China, Malaysia, Taiwan, ROK, Philipines et al. As long as the dollar tanks against the Euro, the Asians should still export.
if your currency is the dollar OR is tied to the dollar, your costs will rise and your imports will (should) naturally decrease as the dollar currency weakens compared to the currency of that country supplying the goods.
it’s simple math..
The flip side is that any country who’s currency is rising against the dollar gets more dollars for any trade. This is an automatic, unintended price hike to those who purchase with the dollar..
or you cut the profit margins as Asia is doing.
In the meantime since a lot of items cannot be cut, food & oil, the US has a built in inflation. The countries that will get smacked hard are the Euro nations. Why spend another 6K for a Mercedes? Is it any different from the one last month?
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“it’s simple math..”
It is not as simple a math as you imagine. Dollar has gone up and down by a factor of two against the major currencies during the past 15 years. And Americans have kept on buying foreign made products without much increase in prices and in many cases at much lower prices. Overall cost of imported products has not gone up at all if you factor in the fact that we consume more of those products whose prices have been falling.
Jas
i waited too long to reply to something i missed..
You mentioned Asians with currencies tied-to-dollar exports .. sure, they will continue unabated into the US as you said, because it’s like trading with ourselves in the same currency..
I had misread your statement ..
yeah.. the EU is already a bit worried.
I don’t really understand their politics.. like i get the impression EU labor forces seems to have a huge say in overall economic policy, and, who knows.. they may end up reacting against their own best interests.
Jas Jain .. of course.. we could bring a whole lot of related factors into it. In reality there are probably hundreds of forces that, if they were known and could be calculated and summarized, would explain why things often happen in ways they “shouldn’t” happen .
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‘In reality there are probably hundreds of forces…”
No there are no hundreds of forces, there is one dominant force — Pushing Debt on American households that accounts for imoprts far exceeding exports. Since you believe in simple math, here it is:
Imports - Exports = debt-driven consumption
No?
Jas
hehe.. not hundreds of forces.. only one! err.. one dominant force, that is
ok.. i surrender.
I suppose that in an ideal world everyone would export an exact equivilant of what they import.. People would want only what they need..
and the world’s economies would be prefectly stable .. and currencies would not inflate or deflate.. the hungry would get fed .. politicians would not care about power and business wouldn’t care about profit, and lions would bed down with the lambs.
Interestingly…
A peaceful version of this, will come about
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_East_Asia_Co-Prosperity_Sphere
This is usually a coincident event with a recession.
Question. How old are these numbers? The article implies August, but it could be a miss-match of statistics. What it does clearly show is that the builders have more room to contract!
This is again August numbers. Back when things were ok but getting scary. Since imports are a lagging indicator…
Got popcorn?
Neil
The article notes that the US Commerce Department import statistics for August are due out on Thursday so I’d guess that these numbers are for August.
Orders for August arrivals were probably placed back in March-April-May so January 2008 arrivals should be way down.
There were different sets of numbers in the article. Some referenced yearly totals (this year to previous years), some for August, and the following for the second quarter of this year:
“Imports of building materials plunged 20% in the second quarter from year-earlier figures, the most recent period for which detailed statistics are available. Furniture imports fell 17%, clothing declined 10% and footwear was down 8%, he said.”
These second quarter declines occurred well before the latest decline in the dollar and include items that are not directly tied to the housing slowdown. I, too, wondered if these declines would be consistent with a recession.
SheepleVision
http://www.stockmania.com/2007_10_09_archive.html
“Coming up next Maria Bartiromo will lisp her way through telling all you sheep why you should mail all of your money to your nearest stock broker. Then she will go shine her horns.”
Buy Apple now or be priced out forever - as is the case with google.
Google just broke $600….must be a strong buy.
AMZN, RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, VMW, etc.
They are all soaring. I don’t get into things I don’t believe in. This sure looks like the blowoff top. What think ye, TXChick?
Could be but they’ll throw OPM at them as long as it takes to make bonuses.
But a good point was made today that they’re still benchmarked vs. the S&P.
I’m full of good ideas that I won’t personally take. LOL. Tagged all of these as easy long plays in August. I just don’t have the guts to pay >300 for Google since I bought the IPO and sold it at a price it’s never seen since
Sounds sloppy. Amazon is a big, debt loaded retailer, device manufacturers have their own issues and these currency moves could destabilize manufacturing chains that are now centered in Asia, Google depends heavily on particular advertising channels, and VM Ware provides iron for all kinds of tasks and still puts most of their considerable power into research and development. All of these are completely different companies, so slopping them together as tech on a run is Crameresque. Even a really out of control tech run could not bubble up enough to spare markets the shock of the housing implosion.
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Momentum players just as was the case during 1999-2000 NASTYQ! blow off.
Jas
Agree, Jas, but if you started betting against them in January of ‘00 for instance, you got your face ripped off right before the ship came in.
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Yes, hazards of speculation! Shorting scams is one of the most difficult skills to acquire. I am loading up on Jan’10 puts on most of the highfliers.
Jas
I’ve got Jans too but on the indices.
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You get lot more bang for your bucks in individual scams and some of the ETFs.
Jas
I shorted the hell out of CISCO in 2000. Of course, that was after I nearly lost my shirt on the stuff before I wised up. :/ I lost a some money on a number of my investments when it was all said and done, but certainly not all of it. I took what was left and spent it on: 1) kids college fund, 2) conventional refi w/ no cashout at 5.25% down from 8%, 3) paid off car, 4) paid off credit card, 5) went back in at the S&P low. I never looked back and came out ahead - in the end.
This market? Right now? No way. I’m out and staying that way.
Roidy
–
Roidy,
I started to advise people to avoid the Scam Market altogether in 1998. Only seasoned speculators need to play the market and even they take a bath more often than not.
Some of us, including Chick, are addicted to speculation. Our only choice is to get better at the game over time.
I am carrying losses and if there is no recession before 2008 is out I will have to eat’m. If my forecast of a recession to begin in 2007 and depression during 2008-10 comes true then my Jan’10 puts would put me way ahead in the game. It is a gamble, but, hopefully, a reasoned gamble, or a calculated risk.
Jas
“This market? Right now? No way. I’m out and staying that way.
Roidy ”
Roidy I sold my underwater cisco shares to pay deductions on cap gains from family home sale.
Its no where near where paid, but I get sick watching it going back up.
Kahuna,
You outdid yourself…
For the record, I have a friend, whose softball team was named:
Sheep Thrills
Ha. ROFL. I may have to use that. Thanks!
Regarding the US dollar and commodities:
Yum Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Long John Silver) reported great earnings yesterday and their stock price shot up AH. They said that there was weakness in Taco Bell in the US but that China and other countries more than made up for that. It appears that the weak US dollar is helping out US multinationals. It should be interesting to see what happens with KO today.
On the flip side, I saw an article on rising grocery prices which blamed the weaker dollar. So the expected move from less consumer strength and to better multinational pricing power is taking place.
That said, short-term indicators show a rebounding dollar and weakness in commodity prices.
“Yum Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Long John Silver) reported great earnings yesterday and their stock price shot up AH.”
So people are stuffing their fat fricken faces. Eat up, everyone! It’s good for the US, even if kids can barely drag their lard around anymore.
While I was at the gym this morning I saw a story that there are shopping carts now that will “warn” you when you put junk food in your cart, or something like that. Problem solved. Nothing more to see here.
LOL. Go to the grocery store and note the premium places junk food is shelved. The grocery stores make some very big bucks off the high markups of the junk food they sell. Despite their public actions they have no intenion whatsoever of cutting back their junk food sales.
I think the story was a rerun of Neil Cavuto’s show from yesterday, and whoever his guest was, it looked like he was having a hard time not mocking her.
I have to change my gym. I signed up at Planet Fitness. (nobody warned me).
Unfortunately there is too much misinformation about what is or isn’t healthy. There has never been a study that confirmed high fat diets lead to heart issues, and there has never been a study DONE on the effects of switching a population from fats to carbohydrates as their primary calorie source. The anecdotal evidence is interesting however, type 2 diabetes cases started increasing about the same time as the surgeon general proclaimed high fat diets were worse than smoking.
As for being obese, it doesn’t matter what you eat, it matter how much. 500 calories of rice will get you just as fat as 500 calories of potato chips. It’s all a matter of balancing ins and outs. So long as you know that being thin doesn’t always mean your healthy. Unless your morbidly obese, your life expectancy isn’t terribly affected by it.
Palmetto, I think the more important thing is to look at the earnings for restaurants a step up from Yum Brands, especially restaurants like Applebee’s. Restaurants are on a ladder, just like housing. The first rung is fast food, then fast casual (whatever the hell that means) and upwards to Capital Grille and the other high-end restaurants. Are people cutting back and turning their night out into a bucket of extra crispy instead of the riblet platter?
Good point, NY, didn’t think of that. Oh, the horror, people might actually have to eat at home. But no worries, Rachel Ray will be there to tell people how to make it a fun experience.
FYI, Applebees (APPB Nazdaq) has dropped from 29 to 25 over the last six months. Not sure if that’s because of earnings or whatever.
It’s because they s***. The food is awful and they’re probably getting killed on margins because food prices went up.
They spent a lot on advertising and name brand chefs, but their genius front line managers f*** it up. My GF was like, no servey Boston Bibb [lettuce], no comey back.
I can’t stand Rachel Ray. #1 She’s Oprah’s b!tch, #2 She talks INCESSANTLY!!! Talk about diarrhea of the mouth! And some of the things she says are just retarded! She needs to shut her pie hole and cook.
lol
and Rachel be running her diarrhea mouth all the way to the bank…
(I never could watch her on Food network. Now that she’s a media conglomerate, I’m afraid to go out the house.)
AND… to top it off - she is a phony b!tch. She is vulgar, bossy and a pig. She tries to come off “american pie” s/b more like “american lie”. It is all an act - she is a nasty piece of work. Ask people who have worked with her…
I’m surprised anyone is allowed to divulge such sensitive information. Oprah makes her slaves sign confidentiality agreements. I hate her too. And I don’t care how rich she is. That means NOTHING in the long term. In fact, a lot of weathy people find it makes their lives more complicated and that happiness and peace of mind become somewhat elusive. She doesn’t seem particularly happy, either. She seems driven, probably trying to compensate for something… maybe not comfortable with her true sexual orientation?
jealous?
Spent 20+ years in the restaurant biz, and it needs an occasional recession to clear out the marginal players in the low and middle. Demographic shifts also contribute to the closure of low performing stores as mgmt decides to reallocate resources. I remember changing the rules on parking from staff has to park at the back of the lot to the let’s park a few cars up near the entrance.
The saddest thing I’ve seen over the years is the decline in the numbers in middle of the pack. Lots of fast food, nice choices in the high end, but the true coffee shop is harder and harder to find. Whether price, time pressure or biz model, it is not easy to find a sit down and relax place anymore. No, flaming orange, yellow or red decor does not qualify.
Quality on the high end is rather self regulating by the customer. In my experience, if you annoy a customer and get lucky, you might see them back in 6 months because someone else annoyed them too. Thus, the secret of the successful places is to not annoy the guy or gal with the money.
If I was still in the biz, I’d be checking the restrooms about now.
I generally agree with you about the nice, mid-level restaurants. The TGI Friday/Outback thing is just too crazy to make a nice dining experience. Lately, I’ve found that ethnic restaurants, especially Indian and Ethiopian, give the best “bang for the buck” all round.
I have a suspicion that a recession would be a good opportunity for a resurgence of the diner and cafe.
There are a lot of the Applebee type restaurants around the area where I live. They do OK but not great.
The best mid-level restaurant here though is a smaller cafeteria. You can go there, get a cup of coffee or whatever, they don’t care. Lots of people do that. The mgt has been there for years and knows very well these same people will come back later for dinner. It is a popular place, lots of company luncheons, birthday parties, you name it. A lot of the staff has been there for years and knows the customers on a first name basis.
Their specialty is a variety of fresh well-cooked vegetables and we eat there 2-3 times a month just for those. Their meat dishes are OK, the fish outstanding, the price is right.
I haven’t been in a McDonalds in years, why should I with a place like this so conveniently close by.
My wife and I own a coffee shop/ cafe in N. Ca. I debate on getting out while the getting is good, or riding this recession out. We are doing fine right now and on the plus side we offer a good value and good food for the dollar. We shall see.
Alan
Alambka,
Where is your coffee shop? I’m always looking for a good coffee shop to visit.
The important thing that almost no one gets is that Yum brands’ KFC is the McDonalds of China, they are the only fast food restaurant that penetrates the inner cities, have an order of magnitude more stores, and far more time in country (they were set up there when Pepsi and Coke started striving for share in China). China is nearly a more important market to them than the US (it will be within the decade).
It’s another bowl of hot and sour soup not a bucket of extra crispy that drives their performance.
Fat/salt/sugar junkies we are.
Not just us (as in U.S.). Yum brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) is the most popular fast food chain in China. Globalization works in strange ways.
Yeah, that was the point of the article. We in the U.S. are apparently at saturation level with junk food, but the emerging markets are eating that crap up in waves…
Maybe it’s a secret U.S. government plot to destroy China by massive coronary.
Well you know it is cheaper to eat at Taco Bell than it is to eat at Masa.
I heard they were opening up Taco Bells in Mexico.
I wonder if their motto will still be “Make a run for the border.”
“I wonder if their motto will still be “Make a run for the border.”
I think they changed it to “Make a run for the bathroom”.
lol - near coffee spitting experience
oh, I spat mine — lmao
Remember, in 2025 (or whatever) ALL restaurants will be Taco Bell.
Hot dogs! Armour Hot dogs!
I heard they were opening up Taco Bells in Mexico.
I can’t imagine any natives going for Taco Bell. Maybe in places like Cancun so the gringo tourists can eat “Mexican” food they are acustomed to.
Haw! Ahawhaw! Good one, Tom.
I wonder if their motto will still be “Make a run for the border.”
————-
Nah. The Mexican government would sue them for copyright infringement.
“So people are stuffing their fat fricken faces. Eat up, everyone! It’s good for the US, even if kids can barely drag their lard around anymore. ”
Right Palmetto. We will be seeing a lot more articles about obesity skyrocketing in China and the “developing” world….
Not just developing countries, the UK has the second highest rate of childhood obesity in the world, the US being # 1
I wonder if all this excess weight will make the earth wobble on its axis even more….especially if it is not evenly distributed.
“Fatties needed in the Southern Hemisphere. Cash paid.”
The problem with Taco Bell is that they got rid of all of the rats. I still shed a tear every time I walk down 6th Avenue and see that empty storefront. Those rats never hurt anybody.
Yummmmm…
They must taste like chicken right?
So thats where the meat came from in the new meaty meximelts?
Reminds me of that Buffy episode where she went to work for the fast food chain…
doublemeat palace
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublemeat_Palace
I miss that show. One of my favorites
Solve Everything…
http://www.dailyreckoning.us/blog/?p=566
Not feasible. The loan servicers would have to get the agreement of those who hold the mortgages and since the mortgages have been sliced and diced, it’s practically an impossible task. Hey, but thanks for playing, Ms. Bair!!
“since the mortgages have been sliced and diced,”
Into sausage. Rancid sausages.
And come to think of it, the mortgages are rated much like meat, Prime, subprime, etc. and then ground up, cased, and sold. LOL! Wonder if that was originally done as some sort of insider joke.
CFC looks like tripe but people are still buying it like it’s steak.
Ground with E-coli.
LOL, Leigh, investors are holding a lot of e-coli tainted meat!!! Good one!
Vietnamese love tripe … Chinese love MBS. Hmm…
Not to mention raising some nasty constitutional issues. You might get a temporary moratorium, but even with government, it is hard to constitutionally rewrite contracts already formed.
FDIC to lenders:
“Put your ARMs up in the air and freeze!”
The comments on that page are priceless.
What a dumb idea. Even if you could get past the sliced/diced mortgages, does anyone think lenders would go for that. On the other hand, a positive side effect might be the end of the ARM mortgage forever.
just in case it wasn’t yet mentioned here: the UK Government is now ‘temporary’ guaranteeing ALL deposits at Northern Rock, including new deposits. Just wonder how this can be ‘temporary’ now that the Hedgefunds from Hell are lining up to collect the pieces (and besides, NR is still continuing their very subslime practices like 125% mortgages). The current exception makes NR the safest bank in the UK. If they ever drop the government backing, the bank run will be far bigger than the one from last month. Maybe the BOE thinks that the general public is stupid and will forget about the NR problems within a few months? I would guess savers have been warned and I doubt the trust will return soon. This all sounds like an even worse idea than the US government backing Freddie en Fannie - UK government backing for the big US hedgies??
I am amazed that other banks in the UK are not up in outrage as the guarantee conveys an unfair competitive advantage to NR. I gotta think this type of targeted guarantee is illegal.
NR is dead but Brown may survive if he keeps NR alive. Did you hear about the Khazak bank run? From the TimesOnline:
The bank has also been hit by the credit crunch because it uses wholesale borrowing in the international money markets to help to fund its growth.
There has also been a crash in parts of the Kazakh property market, where houses in the low and middle-range price brackets has fallen by up to 20 per cent over the past three months.
http://tinyurl.com/28ox7o
Where’s Borat when we need him?
Right here…….
http://www.bestofborat.com/?gclid=CISt37GRzogCFRorWAod0E4PKQ
good grief, they are talking about loan-to-deposit ratio’s, if you ever wanted proof that Kazakh is still in the financial Middle Ages, there you have it
“good grief, they are talking about loan-to-deposit ratio’s, if you ever wanted proof that Kazakh is still in the financial Middle Ages, there you have it ”
I must still be stuck in the middle ages. Wouldn’t loans to deposits still be valuable for at least trend analysis?
I’m not sure about the US, but in Europe there are NO requirements at all regarding this ratio; somewhere in the 80’s or 90’s they decided it’s a relict of the past that we can do without. And I don’t think it is easy to say what qualifies as a ‘loan’ amount these days, with all the hedging, CDO etc. going on. Even deposits are not what they used to be, e.g. in the Netherlands many deposits in savings accounts are actually collateral for huge speculative mortgages (caused by the flawed Dutch tax regulations).
I guess there are some stealth agreements with the other banks in place; they should have plenty of bargaining power towards the BOE. Officially NR pays a ‘penalty’ rate on loans from the BOE to prevent it from getting unfair advantage. Of course the penalty rate is set by some burocrat or politician and not by the market, so it will be far lower than required.
The evidence is clear and it’s all around the globe. The NR/CFC/RAMS model is toast. They are shut from the money markets. If they had access to ECB window, it might be different.
yeah, NR’s real problem is probably not that they have reckless policies, but simply that they don’t have offices outside the UK where every problem is silently bailed out with ECB money
Bank loaned millions on pre-construction condos; buyers don’t want to close and are trying to get out; nationally the big wave of new condos completes THIS COMING YEAR, just in time for a bust (as always).
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/09/business/09corus.html?ref=business
That’s the problem with large buildings. They take three years to build. And people always want to finance them right at the peak of the cycle, which is right before the bust. No one wants to finance them at the bottom.
Good post, WT. The condo craze is soooo dead. Florida is heavily invested in condos and scenarios like this will really put the coup de grace on sinking the market. People will walk away before they even take ownership. But that’s not good news for people with funds in these banks like Corus.
I guess the government will substitute leaves or newspaper for toilet paper in the first quarter of 2008 to keep the inflation index in line…
“KMB (69.88, -0.15, -0.2%) said Tuesday that it plans to raise prices on some of its products in the U.S. during the first quarter, citing “significant inflationary pressure from higher raw material and energy costs.” As of Feb. 3, prices will be 4% to 7% higher on Cottonelle and Scott bathroom tissue, Viva and Scott paper towels, Huggies diapers, Pull-Ups training pants, Goodnites youth pants and Huggies Little Swimmers swimpants. The Dallas-based consumer-goods company said these products account for annual sales of more than $4 billion in the U.S.”
” Huggies diapers, Pull-Ups training pants, Goodnites youth pants and Huggies Little Swimmers swimpants.”
Don’t worry, the US taxpayer will support the prices, in terms of welfare payments for anchor babies of illegals.
Sheesh, when I wuz a pup, we had cloth diapers and diaper services. Maybe these will come back in vogue, in the interest of re-using and recycling.
They’ll do private label (store brand) before cloth diapers.
“The Dallas-based consumer-goods company said these products account for annual sales of more than $4 billion in the U.S.”
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the new fiat currency of the US!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe we could start a new brand: Amero diapers!
“Sheesh, when I wuz a pup, we had cloth diapers and diaper services. Maybe these will come back in vogue, in the interest of re-using and recycling. ”
Already has.
Having seen the volume of crap that a small child generates, I’ve always wondered how the heck cloth diapers are even remotely practical or cost effective? I mean, you must be constantly scooping /emptying the diaper, giving it a quick rinse to prevent smell while awaiting a proper wash, bagging up the crap to prevent the trash from stinking, getting your own clothes in a mess from having to clean up the crap in the a more personal manner than a disposable, not to mention leaks, etc…
It is less expensive in the long run to wash your own diapers. What you don’t realize is that, for obvious reasons, children raised in cloth diapers are typically toilet trained by 18 months. All four of mine were. I know people who have 3 year olds in diapers…that is sick and abusive!
The memory of the diaper service my mother used when my brother was an infant still brings tears to my eyes. From the smell of the dirty ones waiting to be picked up, that is.
Yep, that’s all true, but ‘disposable’ diapers, with silicon gel and all sorts of unbiogegradeable plastics, takes approximately 500 years to degrade in a landfill.
Using terry diapers and a diaper laundry service is a lot less environmentally damaging.
BTW, storing the dirty ones in a small bucket with a lid, filled with a weak solution of water/bleach helps to keep down the smell.
Check out http://www.gdiapers.com/
Sort of a compromise b/w cloth and disposable (sp?) with the flushable liner being biodegradable. But I’m only an uncle not a parent, so what do I know?
MrBubble
not to mention our hideous landfills filled with rancid baby poo and non-biodegradable plastic.
“I guess the government will substitute leaves or newspaper for toilet paper in the first quarter of 2008 to keep the inflation index in line… ”
When touring the (200+ year old) home our town’s founding father, the wash room is complete with the requisite Sears Robuck catalog which was not to be used for your reading pleasure.
Just imagining what the ink offset did to one’s backside.
“The Dallas-based consumer-goods company said these products account for annual sales of more than $4 billion in the U.S.”
That’s because kids aren’t potty trained till at least 3 or 4 now. Potty training 2 year olds can damage their delicate psyches.
Investors don’t want to buy second mortgages.
http://www.therealdeal.net/issues/October_2007/1191534734.php
The mortgage company whose owner is interviewed here, “Equity Now,” was all over the radio in recent years. “You should have seen the hassle I got from my bank. I walked out, and called Equity Now.”
Another favorite: “When your bank says no, Champion Mortgage says yes.” Well, why did the bank say no?
Oh, the humanity. Neil is going to enjoy this one. Foreseeable and predicted, from the link:
From the perspective of many lenders, home equity loans are now way too risky. In the event of foreclosures, which are on the rise in the outer boroughs, lenders can rarely collect on them since the primary mortgage holder gets first dibs on the property.
At the same time, the secondary market for home equity loans, which comprises Wall Street investment banks that use mortgages as collateral for tradable securities, is nearly flat, and buyers and sellers are losing interest.
NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it was undertaking an overnight repurchase agreement to add temporary reserves to the banking system.
Federal funds traded in the market steady at 4.81 percent after the operation was announced, above the 4.75 percent target rate the Fed sets
****************************
phhtt
All of the Federal Reserve Repos last week including the 28B on Thursday were rollovers. There were no new moneys added to the system. Fed Reserves are at $45B. There is no new liquidity.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/openmarket.html
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/openmarket.html
Hoz:
I understand the concept that this is not new money, but the intervention, in an of itself, is simply not normal.
The borrowers did not have the moneys to repay. The problem is that many Wall Street mopes perceive this as ‘new injections’.
We are not living in normal times. I hope.
According to this report today’s looks like a net addition since there were no maturities.
http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx
It suggests such, but there is no way to tell (that I know of) for a week. As you know premature rollovers are very misleading. Look at last week.
I meant to post this yesterday for you gold and silver folk:
http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/
Thanks TX, that’s very informative.
DP…. Does that mean you’re long on gold?
Affirmative, exeter. We are currently overweight in commodities, precious metals, energy, emerging markets and healthcare, and underweight in the other sectors (consumer, financials, utilities, etc.)
Daily Blog Buzz: S-chip’s Real Recipients
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/10/daily_blog_buzz_1.asp
1. Graeme and his sister Gemma attend the Park School, a private school that costs $20,000 per child.
2. Brown wrote that the family lives on $45,000 per year, but icwhatudo notes: “Halsey Frost has owned his own company ‘Frostworks’ since…1992 so he chooses to not give himself insurance. He also employed his wife as ‘bookkeeper and operations management’ prior to her recent 2007 hire at the ‘medical publishing firm.’”
3. His business is housed in a $160,000 building — that he owns.
4. The Frost family lives in a recently remodeled 3,000-square-foot home that cost $485,000.
Yeah, the Frosts sound dirt poor, and certainly worthy of government handouts.
And to think that poor Slim had to tough it out through 12 years of public school. Gosh. I’m still traumatized.
Hoooooo, the Weekly Standard. What a joke. What a BushCo. propaganda mouthpiece.
All of the Standard’s (and Malkin’s, and assorted other twittering halfwits) alleged “facts” have already been debunked:
http://tinyurl.com/ysm9fm
The Wall Street Journal August 9: “The bill goes so far as to offer increasing ‘bonus payments’ to states as they enroll more people in their SCHIP programs. To grease the way, the bill re-labels children’ as anyone under 25, and ‘low income’ as up to… $82,600 for a family of four.”
Help poor kids get healthcare? Fine. Is Graeme deserving? Perhaps he is (leaving aside the possibility that his family could have purchased some healthcare coverage on 40k per year).
But does anyone really think that 25 year olds are “kids”? Does anyone really think some health coverage is impossible on 80k per year for a family of four?
The S-chip legislation is simply a means to universal, government provided, coverage. You want government run healthcare, fine. But at least be honest about what you’re doing and have an open debate.
To grease the way, the bill re-labels children’ as anyone under 25, and ‘low income’ as up to… $82,600 for a family of four.
Let me guess — the WSJ’s editorial page.
The $80k figure is a BS number that the Bush Adminstration is using to muddy the waters on this bill, which is rightly popular across partisan lines in Congress and among a majority of governors.
The $80k figure comes from a NY or NJ petition for a sliding scale adjustment by state. BushCo. shot it down in no uncertain terms. No family in any state can make close to that amount and qualify for the program.
The point here is that S-CHIP is a small, well-run, well-regarded program with wide bipartisan support — even among noted flaming liberals like Utah Repub Orrin Hatch. (That’s sarcasm.)
BushCo. and their slimy HMO butt-buddies are lying left and right in an attempt to shoot down the measure.
Gotta keep those HMO profits up, right? Poor children shouldn’t factor into the equation. There are sharholders to think about.
But does anyone really think that 25 year olds are “kids”?
Dude, get real!!! Not when WE were 25… but then we all weren’t still living w/mommy. Today’s “kids” stay on the teat until 30-40 and are not even ashamed! They leech off the ‘rents for a lot longer. Why not have free insurance too?
kckid, here are the facts:
1) Graeme has a scholarship to a private school. The school costs $15K a year, but the family only pays $500 a year.
2) His sister Gemma attends another private school to help her with the brain injuries that occurred due to her accident. The school costs $23,000 a year, but the state pays the entire cost.
3) They bought their “lavish house” sixteen years ago for $55,000 at a time when the neighborhood was less than safe.
4) Last year, the Frosts made $45,000 combined. Over the past few years they have made no more than $50,000 combined.
5) The state of Maryland has found them eligible to participate in the CHIP program.
A Bank Bet on Condos, but Buyers Want Out
“….“We’re at the riskiest point of the condo lending cycle as these projects are being completed,” Jefferson L. Harralson, a bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said. “In the coming weeks and months, we’re going to find out what the demand for these condos really is.”
Real estate clearly was a different story when Corus started concentrating on lending to condo projects a few years ago. The bank bet heavily that thousands of buyers, many hoping to turn a quick profit, would snap them up.
Today, developers owe Corus $4 billion, $3.7 billion of which, or 92 percent, is in condominiums. Of that, about 25 percent of them are in projects in the Miami area and 9 percent are in Las Vegas, according to regulatory filings. More than $2.15 billion of its outstanding loans are due by the end of this year. Nationwide, the number of condos completed this year will be up 45 percent — 232,933 vs. 160,239 — from 2006, according to data tracked by Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, a real estate investment brokerage based in Encino, Calif.
But sales have fallen 12 percent through August, Marcus & Millichap said. And recent trends in Las Vegas and Miami, where at least six Corus-financed projects will be finished by next summer, are worse…..”
New York Times
http://tinyurl.com/ywjmad
This if for Neil!
OSHA, Congress Spar Over Killer Popcorn Rule: Cindy Skrzycki
“…The problem seemed to intensify, industry experts said, after popcorn makers started using extra-buttery and theater-style popcorn in the 1990s, increasing workers’ exposure….”
Bloomberg
http://tinyurl.com/3brakq
As a lifelong popcorn addict, i’m speechless.
Can’t we just make this problem go away by outsourcing the production of microwavable popcorn to China?
The Goldilocks case is laid out nicely in an Op-Ed piece in today’s WSJ. Little to no mention is made of the possible problem of tapped out consumers or the negative home equity wealth effect, though.
Also, much hay is made out of comparison of the financial crisis du juor to similar ones in 1987 and 1998, when no recession ensued.
I suppose it depends upon how one keeps score, as recessions did occur within the subsequent four year periods after both 1987 and 1998, and it is quite difficult to say to what extent causality explains events after a three- to four-year time lag. For instance, the Fed may intervene currently to forestall a recession that would otherwise take place next year another three years out into the future, by blowing a baby tech stock bubble into its path. For Wall Street economists, who have a very high discount rate, three years out into the future is effectively an infinite time horizon.
No Recession in Sight
By Mickey D. Levy
Word Count: 779
Despite recent financial turmoil and a dismal housing market, there are key reasons why the economy will continue to expand, albeit at a modest pace, and not go into recession. Businesses are well poised to absorb a period of weaker product demand and are unlikely to significantly alter their hiring and investment behavior. Consumer spending is supported by rising incomes. Exports are strong. And monetary policy is consistent with sustained growth in domestic demand. Next year, we will look back and once again marvel at the flexibility and resilience of the economy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119189253025952962.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Recessions didn’t ensue immediately but they did ultimately occur. It remains to be seen how badly home equity withdrawal will affect consumer spending. From the looks of it consumers have turned to their lines of credit via credit cards to keep the game going. Surely this won’t last for long.
No recession? Tell that to the auto industry. Broken over the wheel.
Tell that to the home builder industry. I guess the writer’s real point is that the recession will be contained to a few sectors, and not morph into a general GDP recession.
I think we live in a fundamentally changing economy. Think of it as the ground shifting beneath you and you having to seek more stable ground. There will be many industries that will be in recession and others that will emerge anew. I think America will be in a transition phase until 2009 until new leadership takes hold in Washington. Until then, expect more of the same (high commodity prices, low interest rates and a falling dollar that forces). Debt and credit are poor substitutes for income and many folks in auto and housing will have to retrain themselves to do something different (think computers). My guess is most of them will end up trading the stock market from home and lose their shirt eventually.
I dunno, everything seems pretty “recessiony” right now. And I’m typically more of an optimist than many around here. A debt-driven economy can only hold up for so long.
One further point that Mickey Levy conveniently ignores is one that I have raised myriad times on this blog: There has never been a 25%+ residential construction recession since 1955 (out of seven such events) when there was not also a concurrent national GDP recession. I guess this point is easily overlooked by economists who wear rose-tinted glasses.
Not everyone has missed the point I have often raised here.
“Figure 6 makes clear that housing both leads the economy into recession and out of recession.”
http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2007/10_09_07.html
http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2007/10_09_07.html#fig6
Businesses are well poised to absorb a period of weaker product demand and are unlikely to significantly alter their hiring and investment behavior.
—————
Maybe he missed the reports that almost nobody is hiring and that capex and factory orders are negative. I “marvel at the flexibility and resilience” of Wall Street’s bullishness in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence.
I’m in IT in the greater Boston area. In a four week period, I have been on three interviews and turned down another two after finding out more about the position. I am expecting an offer on one (with a 25% increase in comp) and my current employer has already countered with a 15% increase to keep me. My job search was focussed on the Boston area. There were many more options if I had been willing to relocate.
No one I know in IT/Tech (all senior staff/management) has had a problem finding work, all at higher comp. Needless to say, there is no recession in IT/Tech. We’ll see what 2008 brings.
From the Office of The Controller of The Currency
News Release October 8
Comptroller Dugan Urges Improved Underwriting Standards on Third Party Loans
“… * Banks could be stuck holding a pipeline of weakly underwritten loans when markets seize up – as some banks have learned the hard way with leveraged loans over the last several months.
* Banks often retain some part of the risk when they sell loans to third parties, as is true in the syndicated loan markets.
* And reputation risk and concern for future market access may cause banks to take back loans or their risk in times of stress, as seen with some of the pools of subprime loans sold to third parties….”
http://tinyurl.com/3aeyzj
No problemo.
I understand that banks will give certain companies with aggressive sounding medieval or satanic names loans at favorable rates to clear the pipeline and offload questionable securities with alphabet soup names from their books.
Some gloom and doomers may say that this process is similar to a snake eating its tail or is somewhat incestous however they are just sour pusses.
My wife and I felt that last night’s Daily Show/Colbert Report was the finest ever…
Vicente Fox is a very impressive speaker~
Currently being investigated by the mexicans for fraud, and misuse of funds, as is traditional in mexican presidents. Google for details.
For those of you discussing the drought yesterday, I have some great news! We are way ahead of scientists’ predictions for climate-changing emissions! Yippy!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071009/ap_on_sc/climate_change
BOAKYAG
there is an interesting article in last month’s New Scientist “First the Heat, then Drought or Deluge” about the areas north of the 30th parallel (N. Africa, northern South America, etc.) becoming drier while Northern Europe will become wetter. People are much more sensitive to changes in precipitation than they are to changes in temperature. No precipitation, no food.
Too much precipitation, and the food you are used to growing rots before you can harvest it. Changing to crops that like a lot of water is easier than developing drought resistant varieties, but it still takes some time.
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.” —C.S. Lewis
his cupidity may at some point be satiated
I have a great deal of respect for C.S.Lewis, but I’m afraid that he missed the boat on this one. Robber barons are never satiated (as a group). Sure, once an individual robber baron approaches the end of his life he will engage in philantropy, either to “buy” his way into heaven, or if secular just to be remembered in a positive way.
From the Santa Cruz Sentinel - First local lender falls victim to sluggish mortgage industry: Santa Cruz Mortgage shuts down
http://tinyurl.com/yrywy3
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_42/b4054001.htm?chan=rss_topEmailedStories_ssi_5
BUSINESSWEEK
OCTOBER 15, 2007
COVER STORY
By Mara Der Hovanesian and Christopher Palmeri
Housing: That Sinking Feeling
Homeowners are getting slammed as builders slash prices. The big question: Will this shock treatment help hasten the end of the painful downturn?
In the California thread from yesterday, (required reading should you reside in) we touched upon the drought’s impact, present and future tense…
All of the sudden, Californians used to a wealthy lifestyle in both money and water, will be in short supply of both items~
Should be interesting, hope you don’t live in a big city in the Golden State…
The view’s much better from far, far away.
I do and man oh man am I ever grateful that I don’t have a house to unload! When the writing is on the wall and it’s time to go, I’ll just do it! I am, however, really surprised and disappointed that the media isn’t doing a better job informing the public that all of So. Cal is in a SEVERE state of drought. I have yet to hear from our local officials that conservation would be prudent, let alone manditory. People are still watering their lawns daily, hosing off their driveways, etc., with no reprocussions. Sometimes I’ll even see a wide stream of runoff in the gutter from where someone’s forgotten to shut off their sprinklers or hose. I remember as a kid our water use was severlely restricted. We had to time our showers, not flush every time, no yard watering or washing of cars, only full loads of dishes and laundry, etc., etc. or you would be steeply fined. The government nowadays just lulls us all into a false state of security until it’s too late for us to collectively make any difference! It’s disgusting.
About 5 months ago, my wife and I were driving in Westwood, and the vast Veterans Cemetery was being watered extensively @ 2 pm on a hot day…
Why not 2 am, instead?
Evaporation Happens
All us pampered Americans are going to have a rude awakening. I just wonder what the heck is going to become of Las Vegas and how long they are going to keep life supports going on that glorified den of iniquity.
It’s is so gone-zo (Homage to the Good Doctor)
When LV hits the wall on water, it will give a new meaning to the phrase “fear and loathing in LV.”
When we were in New Zealand last year, perhaps 1/2 of the toilets we used, had 2 buttons…
A 1/3rd flush for # 1
A full flush for # 2
Why have I never seen one of these water saving devices in our country?
U.S. Retail Sales Rise at Slowest Pace in Five Months
“U.S. retail sales in September increased at the slowest pace in five months as consumers cut back spending, raising concerns results for the holiday season may be the worst in five years.
Sales at stores open at least 12 months gained 2 percent from a year earlier, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities LLC said today in a preliminary statement. The increase was the smallest since same-store sales fell 1.9 percent in April and half the gain of September 2006. …”
Not enough to keep up with reported inflation.
Bloomberg
http://tinyurl.com/yotb2u
The sales keep rising? What do people buy? Don’t they ever go down even a little?
Roidy
Orwell was here
Sales are falling in the real world but can only rise in the the Emerald City of Fedflation.
consumers are staying at home and clicking through on Google ads
I tried to post this earlier but it appears to have been cybered.
A Bank Bet on Condos, but Buyers Want Out
“…While most banks do not have the exposure to the condo market that Corus has, Mr. Harralson said they still face risk. Banks typically allocate an average of 15 percent of their loans to construction and the rest to consumer loans, business loans and other real estate.
Corus warned in its last quarterly filing that “a surge in buyer cancellations could be especially painful, particularly if a substantial percentage of a given project’s presale buyers did not close.”
Still, the Corus Bank president, Robert J. Glickman, remained optimistic. So far, he said in an e-mail message, developers have used many successful strategies “to ensure that buyers come to the closing table.” …
…Then there are smaller markets like San Diego, where developers are also struggling to sell units. Corus helped finance 11 condo projects there, about 5 percent of its portfolio. More than half of the loans are for projects in downtown San Diego, which is scheduled to have 3,000 units completed by 2008.
Among the projects is the Icon, where Ms. Graham bought a one-bedroom apartment last year for $374,000. At the time, she said that she was able to negotiate a $9,000 reduction in homeowner association fees, $5,000 toward closing costs and a washer and dryer. She said that her building sold 80 percent of its apartments.
But she said that the building is now offering even better incentives. Residents who refer buyers get a $5,000 finder’s fee and an extra $5,000 for the buyer.
Still, she questions whether there will be any takers, especially since her building feels empty. “I can go a whole week without seeing a neighbor,” Ms. Graham said.”
NYT
http://tinyurl.com/3b2ay6
I probably would not have found out about this blog last year if it was not for Corus.
I like my music with no words, as well as words…
The Ventures were, and are the coolest band ever~
From their “album” Telstar & Ventures in Space, i’m listening to Fear “One Step Beyond”, the perfect soundtrack to events going on.
Have a teaser taste, just click on Fear # 16
http://shopping.yahoo.com/p:Ventures%20Play%20Telstar%2FVentures%20in%20Space:1921137094
A-sane, you are my new best friend. Lined up on gold, economics, and now music. Sweet. I doubt you live close to me, but it’d be fun to organize a HBB event with you.
Chad
Thanks for the kind words, I appreciate it…
I owe everything to my Father, who after enduring a 8 year tour of the horrors of fascism in occupied Europe, earned his economic degree in Switzerland, and became another immigrant success story here, in a country that rewarded excellence and nourished it.
Just as an apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, or as so many professional sporting types, that breed reasonable facsimiles of themselves find, their progeny is as capable, if not more so then they were at hitting the curveball, after seeing the 99 mile an hour heater, the pitch before…
I was the recipient of his largess, and everything i’ve ever written on here, has more than a little of him, along for the ride.
Sooner or later we’ll all have to meet face to face, anonymity can be lonely…
Agreed. If you feel the urge, I use yahoo. cfent80. (I don’t put ‘em together so that spam filters don’t pick it up)
I get many of my, ahem, qualities from my father. Most noticeably my disdain for authority.
The Ventures had an excellent album live from Japan (1964/1965?). They did some great covers. One was the song “Out of Limits” done by the Marketts, and another was “Slaughter on 10th Avenue” - can’t remember the original artist, though.
I didn’t get to read the site for a few days so I don’t know if this was posted or not, but here’s another failed bank.
Headlines in Morning Journal, Lisbon, OH
FDIC:Ohio bank fails, other Ohio bank buys deposits.
Apparently Miami Valley Bank of Lakeview, OH has failed and deposits will be taken over by and Citizens Banking Co. of Sandusky OH. Miami bank was created in 1903, so it’s been around awhile. Part of the article mentioned the closing of Net Bank Inc. of Alpharetta, GA. I know everyone’s been talking about that one on here for awhile. Wonder how many others will go under?
A nation of gamblers
For Schools, Lottery Payoffs Fall Short of Promises
“…In reality, most of the money raised by lotteries is used simply to sustain the games themselves, including marketing, prizes and vendor commissions. And as lotteries compete for a small number of core players and try to persuade occasional customers to play more, nearly every state has increased, or is considering increasing, the size of its prizes — further shrinking the percentage of each dollar going to education and other programs….”
The only reason for the continuation of state lotteries is for political patronage. The social cost may be far more expensive than the benefits received.
NYT
http://tinyurl.com/36wuh9
As is the case with other forms of “legalized gambling”. In Iowa, the talking heads all said that bringing in casinos would generate tax revenues, help build infrastructure, create jobs, lower personal, sales, and property taxes, blah, blah, blah. Plus, there would be a “foundation” (The Iowa West Foundation being one of them) that would help schools, build parks, etc. But, it has hardly done a DAMNED THING!!! Except maybe increase demand for drugs and hookers. Oh, plus, it broke many, many people (some family and friends included).
Sorry, rant off.
I like the CA state lottery. My wife’s a public high school teacher and every August we get a check for ~$500-600 (so probably $800 before taxes and whatnot) from the lottery fund. Since she doesn’t get any other sort of annual bonus (obviously), it’s always a nice little treat right before she has to go back to school.
She more than spends it over the course of the year on miscellaneous out-of-pocket expenses that the school district won’t provide for, so it more or less works out.
The crisis of confidence which began at the Fed in August may be stabilizing, but I see no recovery for some time. Meanwhile, Wall Street bulls can party on, as further rate cuts are in the cards. Buy stocks now or get priced out forever!!!
THE FED
Poole doesn’t see recovery for some time
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:16 PM ET Oct 9, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. housing and credit markets remain fragile and won’t recover for some time, a key Federal Reserve official said Tuesday, implying significant risks to the Fed’s forecast for a modest improvement in the economy.
“Recent events suggest that housing will remain weak for several more quarters,” said William Poole, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. “Stabilization may not begin until well into 2008.” Read his complete text.
The financial markets, which were struck in August by a crisis of confidence in securities backed by mortgages and other uncertain assets, “appear to be stabilizing, but they have not returned to normal and are still fragile.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/poole-doesnt-see-recovery-some/story.aspx?guid=%7BB328CB4F%2D885B%2D46DC%2DB13E%2DBF31E8A90E17%7D
More cause for the stock market to rally: A sharp drop in factory orders which, needless to say, increases the probability the Fed will execute another “surprise” 1/2 point FFR cut at the next FOMC meeting.
US factories hit by sharp decline in orders
By Eoin Callan in Washington
Published: October 4 2007 19:09 | Last updated: October 4 2007 19:09
Factory orders in the US fell off sharply in August as demand declined at the fastest rate since the start of the year – a sign that the recovery in manufacturing could be running out of steam.
The decline in orders was led by a 40 per cent drop in demand for commercial aircraft, which helped distort the volatile monthly figures. But there was also weakness across a range of industries, including industrial machinery and home appliances.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fdc2a484-72a2-11dc-b7ff-0000779fd2ac.html
They will need to but the unintended consequence of any Fed move to the downside is higher inflation. Commodities will rise further and factory orders will remain low because most people will have to spend more money on food and energy instead of the other stuff.
“…increases the probability the Fed will execute another “surprise” 1/2 point FFR cut at the next FOMC meeting…”
No rate cut until Jimmy Cramer does another whining act on CNBC. No whine, no cut. You can tell him that Roidy says so.
Roidy
P.S. I wanna see that Burnette girl in a skimpier outfit next time, too. Giraffe pattern last time! Jeez.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071009/heating_costs.html?.v=8
AP
Heating Costs Seen Jumping This Winter
Tuesday October 9, 4:16 pm ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Government Predicts Heating Oil Customers Will Pay 22 Percent More This Winter Than Last
NEW YORK (AP) — Almost all Americans will pay a lot more to heat their homes this winter, even though temperatures are expected to be warmer than average.
That’s the sobering message from an Energy Department report Tuesday that estimates heating oil costs are likely to jump 22 percent and natural gas bills, on average, will rise 10 percent between October and March.
Who’s Ben Chatting With About the Economy?
“The world may never know what Paulson, also a former head of Goldman, is up to because he refuses to release documents related to a secretive outfit called The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets.
But a guy named Kenneth Thomas, a lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania’s acclaimed Wharton School, had better luck with his Freedom of Information Act request to the Fed.
Among the people Bernanke spoke with while considering cutting interest rates was former Treasury Secretary Rubin, Lewis Ranieri, who now runs Hyperion Capital Management and Raymond Dalio, president of Bridgewater Associates.
And there were lots of calls to Paulson, not surprisingly since the two do share responsibility over the economy.
But the Thomas FOIA raises some interesting questions:
First, since Bernanke and Paulson were in frequent contact, Paulson must have known pretty clearly at some point that the Fed was thinking of cutting rates.
Did Paulson share that information with anyone as part of his “job” of keeping in touch with “market participants?”"
NY Post
http://tinyurl.com/3cwbv8
OT…..Rant on…..but I heard this two days ago, and I have to vent to someone. Crime does pay; I’m starting to wonder why I don’t take it up myself………
BIL passed away last year (early June)…..in October, Sis gets a call from Ford Motor Credit. They want to know if her husband is going to make any payments on his new $45,000 truck….that he put NO MONEY DOWN on……..at the end of July!!!!!
Sister explained that BIL didn’t need a new truck…..he was watching the grass grow from the wrong side. Ford said that unless she filed a complaint with the police, they would file a claim against his estate. So she takes the day off to go file a police report.
Fast forward one year……..Ford Credit calls back, says don’t worry, we found the truck. The guy has a CLEAR TITLE WITH NO LIENS. Says he paid my BIL $45,000 CASH for the truck. Guy reportedly is some kind of Security Guard, working at the LA County Courthouse, or someplace similar.
Ford Credit is NOT PURSUING ANY FURTHER ACTION…….TOO MUCH TROUBLE. They told her about a similar incident, where a six month old bought a new Ford……
I’m beginning to wonder if I’m not the dummy…….Crooks and Stupid people are not only encouraged, they are subsidized!!!!!!
Time to go down to the Ford dealer, and see if they have any Ford GTs or Shelby GT500s left??
Rant off……
Holy crap.
I posted some time ago about what I saw amongst NYU Law students in terms of fraud and this just confirms to me that fraud is rampant and only going to get worse.
Sorry to hear this Falconsitter.
I guess you need to start running credit reports on your underage kids……
Just a suggestion from someone I know in the credit industry……..if a person passes away, make sure the executor of the estate notifies ALL of the credit report agencies.
This uncertainty is a natural consequence of emergency life support measures recently undertaken by the Fed to dampen the effects of the credit crunch.
Corporate America racked by uncertainty
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: October 9 2007 20:07 | Last updated: October 9 2007 20:07
Corporate America is braced for the worst period of economic uncertainty since the start of the decade as the credit squeeze and the housing meltdown heighten the risk of a US slowdown.
US chief executives say the economic outlook has not been so difficult to read since the last recession in 2000-01. They warn that in spite of signs of a pick-up, the threat of an economic contraction is still alive.
Conflicting economic indicators and volatile business conditions make it difficult to take strategic decisions such as whether to hire or fire staff, or increase or slash capital expenditure, business leaders told the Financial Times.
They said they would watch the third-quarter earnings reporting season, which begins this week, to gauge whether companies had managed to cushion the twin blows from the housing crisis and the liquidity squeeze.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/00eb67c0-769c-11dc-ad83-0000779fd2ac.html
Stock market doesn’t seem too worried to me ? I think the FED is going to Blow another bubble
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/10/tumultuous-tuesday-warning-nasty.html
Please spread and act.
Crudele is either doomed to be a tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist forever, or to some day morph into a latter-day Woodward. Except that I have my doubts that anything illegal has taken place, even if it turned out that the stock and/or bond market is manipulated at the top. After all, what is setting the price of money = interest rate (the Fed’s primary policy tool) if not manipulating the currency market?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Woodward
this may have already been posted, but i would like to know what drugs Lawrence Yun is taking to make some of these predictions. lol
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071010/housing_forecast_realtors.html?.v=7