It’s Housing-Market Karma In Florida
The Palm Beach Post reports from Florida. “The housing market in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast has turned ‘brutal’ and is getting worse, a veteran mortgage broker said Tuesday. ‘I’ve seen some tough times, but I’ve never seen anything like this,’ William Davis told members of the Economic Forum of Palm Beach County.”
“Davis, a Palm Beach County native who has been a banker and mortgage broker for 37 years, said this slowdown has proven more painful than even the crunch of the early 1980s, when mortgage rates topped 18 percent.”
“He blamed a combination of factors. A speculative bubble that peaked in late 2005 artificially inflated prices. The subprime mortgage meltdown of recent months has made it tougher for borrowers to land loans. And homes remain priced above what the typical family can afford.”
“‘It’ll make you sicker than West Palm water if I tell you how many homes are for sale,’ Davis said.”
“There were 33,708 houses and condos listed for sale in Palm Beach County in August, according to Illustrated Properties.’It’s pretty bad,’ said llustrated Properties President Chappy Adams. ‘We’ve got a 40-month supply of homes, which has got to be an all-time high. For the foreseeable future, prices are going to keep coming down a bit.’”
“Davis, former president of the Palm Beach County chapter of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers, expects the downturn to deepen into 2008. On the foreclosures that follow negative amortization loans: ‘We called them neutron bombs, because the people would go away, and the buildings would stay.’”
“On the housing hangover: ‘We had a three-year fraternity party, and it’s going to take more than a month of Sundays to clean up the mess.’”
The St Petersburg Times. “Bucking earlier predictions that the housing market might have struck bottom, local home sales just keep sinking further. You would have to reach back at least five years in the Tampa Bay area to find monthly sales of existing homes as weak as September’s.”
“Realtors reported Wednesday that 1,823 single-family homes and condos sold last month in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties. That’s 39 percent below the 2,972 homes that sold in September 2006 and 58 percent below the September peak of 4,329 homes in 2005.”
“Worst hit on the price front was Pasco. Many of its neighborhoods suffer from a surplus of unsold investment homes. Pasco’s median single-family home sale price plummeted 21 percent the past year, from $209,000 to $164,900.”
“‘The homes that are selling are the ones where the owners … say, ‘I gotta go,’ said Rodney Jackson, a Pasco Realtor and home investor.”
“Jackson’s personal tale of woe is typical. He bought five Pasco investment homes near the top of the market. Even after he slashed prices below what he paid, only a trickle of prospects showed up to look at the houses.”
“He’s resorted to a short sale to avoid foreclosure on a new 2,450-square-foot house he bought last year in Land O’Lakes’ Dupree Lakes neighborhood for $354,000. The bank agreed to a sale price of $257,000 and will forgive the rest of Jackson’s mortgage debt.”
“‘You can beat yourself up, but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?’ Jackson said.”
“‘There were subdivisions that were so heavy with investors that when they threw these homes on the market, they have become disaster areas,’ said the president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, Carlos Fuentes. ‘It’s quite disturbing.’”
The News Journal. “Foreclosure activity in Volusia County nearly doubled in volume last month and ran five times higher than a year ago. A mortgage broker and a real estate agent said they see no signs of recovery in either county. They expect conditions to worsen as lenders tighten terms for new mortgages and readjust the rates for existing ones.”
“In September, there were 1,028 court filings related to foreclosures in Volusia County, according to Realty Trac. That was double the 579 in August and 190 in September 2006.”
“Frank Cardarelli, an agent who specializes in homes that have been repossessed by banks, said Countrywide and other major lenders have alerted foreclosure specialists twice in the past six months to brace for big increases in bank-owned homes in 2008 and continuing into 2009.”
“‘They’re telling us to invest in more software and staff to keep up,’ said Cardarelli, who handles real estate for about 15 banks.”
The Sun Sentinel. “UCF graduate Karissa Huffmire and her husband wait for someone to buy their home, which has been on the market for four months. They need more space for their growing family.”
“In Central Florida, existing-home sales have plummeted 40 percent in the past year, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. In turn, prices have dropped 2 percent.”
“‘It’s housing-market karma,’ says Sean Snaith, director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness.”
“The Huffmires installed new wood floors, tile and carpeting and slashed the price by $30,000, but they have yet to generate interest.”
“‘We’re incredibly frustrated because we’re not even having showings,’ said Huffmire. ‘Nobody is even looking for houses.’”
From CBS 4. “Since 2005, home buyers in Miami-Dade and Broward counties have signed so-called ‘exotic’ mortgages at twice the rate of borrowers in the rest of the country, according to a report done by CBS4 news partner The Miami Herald.”
“These mortgages included loans with low so-called ‘teaser’ rates which can skyrocket within three years to as high as 16 percent.”
“‘This year went from 12-hundred a mnth to 1450 a month or afraid to lose home,’ Marie Fleurimont who is afraid of losing her home told CBS4’s Ileana Varela.”
“During the real estate boom, as home prices rose much faster than incomes, buyers were forced to take on huge debt to get purchase a home they wanted to upgrade into.”
“For example, a home in Miami Shores that sold for $250,000 five years ago skyrocketed to $500,000. To appreciate how this affects a borrower, consider a $400,000 mortgage at 7 percent, which carries a monthly payment of $2,661. When that loan resets, a typical new rate might be 11 percent , and the new payment: $3,809. That’s doesn’t even include taxes and insurance.”
The Herald Tribune. “Stung by continued malaise in the region’s residential market, a Michigan-based developer is scrapping plans for a luxury, high-rise condominium tower in downtown Sarasota.”
“In place of the planned One Palm condos, Triton Cos. joins a growing list of developers hoping to capitalize on a perceived need for additional hotel rooms.”
“‘The reasons behind this are fairly obvious: Residential units downtown aren’t selling, and it continues to be a very difficult market,’ said Brent Virkus, Triton’s chief executive.”
“As Florida’s housing boom stalled, One Palm became among more than a dozen conceived downtown condo towers to suffer from a lack of required unit pre-sales.”
“Elsewhere throughout the city, projects like Washington Lofts; Valencia, Premiere, CityPointe, and the Grande Sarasotan have all had designs recast.”
“At the same time, well-conceived urban projects such as Sarasota Bayside, Pineapple Square downtown, Atrium on Ringling and Benderson Development’s expansion of the 13-story Bank of America building also are well beyond their original construction start dates.”
“‘The market is dead, and it’s going to be a long time before it rebounds, especially for condos, because they traditionally take longer to sell,’ said Louise Guido, owner of a Sarasota brokerage firm that has sold units in the 13-story Rivo on Ringling residential tower.”
“In all, more than 5,000 new hotel rooms — equal to the existing number of rooms in all of Sarasota County — have been proposed for Southwest Florida. Even developers agree only a fraction of what is proposed will be completed. The last new hotel to open in Sarasota was the 95-room Hotel Indigo, in September 2006.”
“Virkus believes his site and design will be superior. ‘It’ll have a lot of eye candy, and be a fun place to go, with meeting space and a restaurant,’ Virkus said. ‘The residential market is tough now, non-existent. There are a lot of units downtown on the market.’”
Who knew?
Anyone who understands markets and resists the pull of the herd.
LOL
“‘You can beat yourself up, but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?’ Jackson said.”
The HBBer’s, that’s who.
Personally, I’m sick of these idiots being referred to as “investors.” True investors don’t pay full price at the top. He wasn’t an investor, just some moron who bought at the top playing with someone else’s money and praying for some greater fool to come along and bail him out.
Infestors maybe??
True “investors” don’t borrow money to invest either. Except on margin, and you need to have significant assets to do that.
investlings (investor-lemming hybrid)
said Rodney Jackson, a Pasco Realtor and home investor.”
“Jackson’s personal tale of woe is typical. He bought five Pasco investment homes near the top of the market. Even after he slashed prices below what he paid, only a trickle of prospects showed up to look at the houses.”
Here’s a lot of the culprits. Real estate agents themselves buying up investment properties and jacking up the prices. I have no sympathy for the realtors who got caught up. Here they buy the fixer-up-ers before they even make it into the marketplace since they’re the first to see them. They add 20K improvements and price $100k+ higher than they bought.
Meanwhile they’ve kept people who wanted to be homeowner and build equity the old fashioned way “sweat equity” from getting a foothold
20K worth of improvements? A new coat of paint and maybe a new carpet in the living room — $1,500.
Ergo….continue with the beatings.
There is an amazing article and interactive map on foreclosures at the above URL (Wall Street Journal online).
I am sorry. It was linked under my name. Try this:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119205925519455321.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
WHO KNEW?
I’d say anyone with a 5th grade math background who could use a calculator. But He had no intention to live in the house and raise a family…he saw $$$$ in his eyes , now he lost!
These are the kinds of people who deserve to have their paychecks, tax refunds, etc. garnished for the next 10-20 years or face JAIL time……which would you choose?
“‘You can beat yourself up, but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?’ Jackson said.”
ALLRIGHT Ben, this is just red meat for the lions, blood in the water, ……..you know this is just going to get us excitable readers all riled up.
Who knew….jeeze!
Who knew AMZN at $400 was overpriced? BIDU is now $357. The attention span of people shrinks with the amount of their integrity.
Does that $357 include inflation? BTW, I have a little more tolerance for dot-bomb mistakes. Yes there was a frenzy, but how do you value a new technology that exploded so fast?
But actual housing is loaded with metrcis and historical trends. Cost has hovered around 3 x income, or 110 x month’s rent, or 5 x of about ~3-4 years savable cash down payment, for decades. Even the most clueless of the clueless (ie, me) was getting odd red flags. Real estate agents should have known better.
NYC boy. Yep. I didnt know, that’s for sure. 1999 eveyone at work was a genius buying stocks. I was the idiot on the sidelines. I didnt know #$$%@ nothin’ about stocks. But i did hear Warren Buffet say that nothing in the market looked like a deal, and he was moving into cash. It was in black and white in his annual report.
Since most people consider him a man of integrity, at least his mistress does, figured it was worth a listen to.
BIADU. Nice one. Chinese. Great. Ever since Marco Polo stole gun powder from them, they’ve been trying to steal it back, 1 dollar at a time. They’re really jealous about the fact that the west made guns, cannon, and artillery and all they came up with was fireworks. Made for a spectacular retreat. Perhaps they could loan some fireworks to the french……
Back to our analysis, already in progress…..MtCap 20x sales and PE 200x with 1.6 per share meaning they’re actually making money, not a devide by almost zero sort of number. Stock went up 5x in the last year, as did profits with 75% margins and almost zero overhead.
Bwwuuaahhhhhhaaahahahahahahaaahhh Cover me, im right behind Warren on the way in.
Perhaps the Chinese are mistified as to why we produced guns, cannon and artillery instead of pretty fireworks?
All the west could see was 200 years of ruination vis a vis opium and what a wastrel China had become…
They couldn’t see the thousands of years of capitalistic experience, before that.
“Who knew AMZN at $400 was overpriced? BIDU is now $357. The attention span of people shrinks with the amount of their integrity. ”
I am fighting tooth and nail to get my colleague (and good friend) to sell VMWARE. I told her that at a P/E of 318, it will not be worth its price for five years, even if earnings double every year! She showed me the chart and started whining….
Who knew?
Anyone with the ability to do 3rd grade math, to start with…
Don’t be harsh, Michael. Even when I went to elementary school in the 50’s, percentages weren’t taught till 5th grade.
And in 2007, percentages are taught in the 11th grade!
I wasn’t even thinking about percentages (well, not really).
Take the price similar homes are renting for and multiply by 100 (add 2 zeros to the rent). Compare that number to the price. Pretty easy to figure out!
I am kidding, of course, but let’s just say that anyone who made it out of elementary school should have all the skills to do the math necessary to value a home. So, in theory, about 90% of all the adults (the only people who can buy homes) should have know that prices were going to go down…
Who knew? Need I or anyone here elaborate?
“The housing market in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast has turned ‘brutal’ and is getting worse..
Gettting worse than brutal? What would that be called? hmm.. There’s gotta be a lot of words that describe conditions as they worsen from brutal to.. deadly.
“This year went from 12-hundred a mnth to 1450 a month or afraid to lose home,”? Well, she could get a second job as an English teacher. Compared to most of the people in Miami she’s probably considered a genius.
“‘It’s housing-market karma,’ says Sean Snaith
Hey Ben,
What’s with Flori-duh using… Clownifornia verbiage?
They did import him didn’t they?
Typical Florida wanna-be California move. I’m sure whoever hired him thought he’d bring the “California” touch to FLA.
You just can’t underestimate the wanna-be Cali attitude that exists in Florida. You really have to be here to hear it out of the mouths of idiots. “We’re gonna be just like California”. LMAO! yeah, all the bad stuff (illegals, gangs, shysters, traffic, high prices, foreclosures, drought, wildfires, etc.) none of the good (well paying jobs, good weather, mountains). And while Cali may have earthquakes, we got hurricanes.
My brother lives in L.A., and I’ve visited his family on a few occasions. The obvious difference between Florida and California is in the percentage of people who are well-educated and who actually hold high-paying jobs. This state will never, ever be California or support California prices, and I predict that Sean Snaith will be returning to the Golden State once he comes to that belated conclusion.
Sh*t Californina can’t even support California prices. The thought that FL is going to be able to do it on about 1/2 to 2/3rds the salary was just idiotic!
Florida is very nice. The humidity is terrible but the water is so wonderfull. All the nice lakes inland (ameba aside).
I like the tunderstorms in the Tampa area. Stunningly beautiful.
There are some good jobs there but it lacks some natural resources (just as LA does).
Its not “California” but its still a very nice place to live.
Heck, I don’t understand why most Californian’s live in California. The beaches are not that full and the mountains are deserted except for a few die hard hikers, like me.
James
Agree with all yer comments about CA & FL. And as a native
” Clownifornian” (yes I can take a joke) I did return from 7 years in FL exile mainly because of the state’s natural beauty.
Good to hear the mtns arent overrun - trying to get back up there for some camping, etc, but too damn busy with this time consuming renovation. Amazing how many hidden problems you find in a 30 year house when you start in on it.
As it’s my personal residence, no flips planned, I go the extra mile to replace hidden things, like the leaking bath faucet stems behind the nice new brushed chrome handles. Might as well do it now when its all apart & tools/time are handy.
(hmm tool time … might be a show there)?
Interesting how many parts to a house. I pay a LOT more attn to those TV remodel shows. Just wish the flipper shows didnt fast-forward thru the labor part of remodel but I guess thats boring for most people, who just want to drool over Ms. Monetelongo’s chest . . . !!
(present company included - hey, I’m a red-blooded hetero male … whattya expect )!?!
..”Just wish the flipper shows didnt fast-forward thru the labor part of remodel but I guess thats boring for most people,”..
Try watching Bob Vila’s ‘This Old House’ - more about the nuts-’n-bolts and less about the equity.
I knew Snaith was reading this blog when he started making trollish comments for our consumption. The Karma reference is a dead giveaway.
Yes, and there you have it. He’s not doing his job, but being a snidely troll and spinning the info just to be a jerk. That’s what they’re paying him for? Hopefully one of his superiors will read this blog and come to the realization that instead of doing what he’s hired to do, he’s using his position to trade barbs. Sorta like throwing spitballs in schools when he should be studying.
You know what, I think someone ought to report this Snaith guy. He’s not doing his job. He’s supposed to be compiling and reporting truthful economic data so as to guide the state in making the right decisions. Instead, he’s being a jerk and throwing spitballs just to get his jollies, while decisions are being made on his twisted conclusions, decisions that could hurt others in the future.
Palmetto please stop huffing glue, it has caused severe brain damage
Gotcha, Snaith. I knew that’d flush you out.
The 2006 Census give 619,427 housing units in PBFl in 2006. The URL for that stat is here: http://tinyurl.com/dto3e
In the article, William Davis states:
“There were 33,708 houses and condos listed for sale in Palm Beach County in August.”
Therefore, the percentage of houses on the market in August was 5.4% or about 1 out of 20 for sale. How many are, or could be, in distress and therefore at risk? Could it be another 5% or more?
Get this one:
Rodney Jackson, a Pasco Realtor and “home investor” bought five Pasco investment homes near the top of the market. In the article, Jackson’s situation is called typical. Oh my word! Five houses underwater is typical? He has already had one short sale that gave the bank a $100k haircut. He will need 4 more, and so we are looking to have a $500K debacle for ONE speculator.
Jackson states:
“‘You can beat yourself up, but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?’ Jackson said.”
One popcorn and a diet coke please. Oh, and no butter flavored grease for me, thanks.
Roidy
P.S. Stocks are up again. That one is going to be more fun than I should really be having.
… and a pack of Raisinets with that popcorn, too please.
…..but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?….
Me, me!!!
This jerk bought 5 investment homes and no question he must of lied on his loan applications . No reason for the lenders to forgive anything . In fact I believe these multi- mortgage clowns need to be investigated for fraud .
Also, the builders are getting a pass for selling projects to investors with their special lenders .The builders are getting to much of a pass on the part they played in the National marketing to investors .The lenders that were approving the builders bogus pre-construction sales ,(required to give the construction loan ),when sales were made up of flippers,speculators, and unqualified buyers, were sleeping on the job. No bail-outs for these groups that have caused so much damage to the housing market . Why doesn’t the MSM question the lenders that were dealing with builders and in charge of construction requirements .
The MSM should be putting out articles on the fraud aspect of this housing bust rather than this sickening home buyer victim BS. The price increases were due to a National mania or investment scheme that was marketed by the REIC based on faulty lending and fraud . Wall street provided the easy money for this real estate investment scheme that will cost billions and the commissioned salespeople were the market-makers .
HW,
You are 100% correct! Still, I do not think that the fraud aspect is going much of anywhere. Here is why: The problem is too big. This Jackson person should be arrested AND WOULD BE if there weren’t thousands like him.
Yes, there will be a few arrests and possible convictions or at least plea bargains.
Unfortunately, the lack of enforcement is for the same reason that the Fed cannot really change or alter the present course: It’s just too big. too many people, too much money. This is the stuff that can bankrupt the nation if we are not careful. I foresee regulators showing up in subcommittee meetings bragging about the one guy they prosecuted - and then admitting that they should have gotten many more but failed. See the stockmarket blow off in 2000 and the follow on hearings about the failure of “self regulation” for a preview of this.
Roidy
I agree Roidy ,to much fraud to go after .But,by the same token I don’t think we should even be talking about bail outs in light of the high rate of fraud .
How bout putting a tatoo on this guy’s forehead that says, “I don’t pay back my loans” so he’ll be lucky if he gets loaned a buck for a cup of coffee?
” I dont pay back my loans forehead tattoo ”
HAHHHhahh : love it “
The Scarlet Letters. Classic. Maybe he can live on the outskirts of town and make clothing for locals while he attempts to regaining his community standing.
…..but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?….
a: anyone who didn’t believe it would go on indefinitely, ad infinitum, world without end, dow 36,000, amen.
This story is typical for REALTORS ™.
Do you recall the story posted sometime earlier this year of the couple of agents in Brandon (Tampa) Florida with 5 “investment properties”? They were costing them $15,000 per month while waiting to flip them.
Naturally, they didn’t have $15,000 per month income, so they defaulted and divorced.
I definitely am going to a REALTOR(tm) for financial advice and information about the housing market.
Aren’t you?
Seen all their signs, lately, trying to pump up the market action………the constant “it’s recovering” bullcrap.
Yea, call a REALTOR(tm).
Asking a realtor if it is a good time to buy is like asking a prostitute if it’s a good time to $#%@.
LOL
NYCB
AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHaaa you slay me. you really do.
Actually, I’m thinking it’s more like asking a pro if it’s a good time to buy a $#%@.
Roidy,
I think that your numbers might be pretty accurate, it would not shock me if there are 10% (or more) of the entire housing inventory in PBC that needs to be turned over. Honestly, I would be suprised if it’s not higher then that; that would be a full turnover every 10 years, which, frankly, is not that fast.
The thing that is overlooked is the volume of homes for sale where people bought at the top (our friendly specu-vestor). I live in a community where about 25% (yes, you read that correctly) of the homes are for sale. That’s an INSANE number; and most of the new communities (SFH, don’t even ask about downtown condos, you will puke on yourself) are showing numbers similar to that.
So, the number given does not truly describe the horror of the FL housing market. The inventory/building overhang right now is just crusing…
50K median HH income, 400K median home price.. Never gonna work…. Ever…..
MK,
You hit it right there: 50K HH vs. 400K MHP. This is why the Fed can’t save this situation. I really do not understand Wall Street’s fecklessness either. Up, up and away!
Can someone explain what they are all thinking? I just don’t understand. That is the most frustrating thing about it. It should make sense on some level, somehow, somewhere.
Roidy
it is called **** loans and 1000 people leaving florida “okay a week” i live in boca and it is amazing how many people are begging for a sale, especially east of 95. they complain about taxes, but it is really insurance that is kicking people in the butt. every insurance company wants to leave.
and, no one knows for sure if another andrew shows up and it is a rain maker. i know that even along the glades, no one knows who will flood for real. they let devil-elopers do what the hell they want to do. when it do rain i know places in west boca that flood with just inches of rain.
south florida of course “was” never going to see prices fall again.
ha!
One bright spot amid all the darkness. With another hurricane-free year, Florida’s property insurers will be able to lower their rates next year.
Yeah, right!
Yes, all insurance companies make their actuarial determinations of the likelihood of having to pay out billions of dollars in hurricane losses by looking at the past 12 months.
no hurricanes.. again?? Global warming enthusiasts must be quite disappointed… unless they also happen to be FB’s with a more immediate and tangible disaster to worry over..
There have been hurricanes. The same weather pattern that made this last August the hottest in Florida in 112 years coincidentally kept the tropical systems well south, so that Dean and Felix didn’t come anywhere near here.
Read something about a later than expected La Nina formation in the east Pacific. Seems that La Nina’s seriously decrease upper-level shear winds into the Carib, which -tada!- leads to stronger hurricanes. Didn’t happen on schedule so the season was somewhat less than expected.
I’d kill for a 40 month supply here.
Who would you kill?
But you know, maybe we’ll get it! 40 month supply…it could happen, sleepless. Just look at all the lovely bad news that comes out daily, and the funny money has gone away…do you recall when it was nothing but cheery drivel slobbering out of REtards mouths? Well, THAT has sure changed, huh, huh, huh!
Great question, I didn’t think that far ahead.
I should get my list ready alongside my cash, although it’s mostly a symbolic killing.
I hope you’re right. In spite of the news, I’ve got my boots as high as I can pull them up cuz it’s still deep as can be here.
The vast, vast majority of people here really do think it’s different, with all the accolades thrown on Portland and Seattle daily. I have my near misses with capitulation, where I think maybe it IS.
I take some comfort in that I think the reality is that the accolades are coming from development that was only possible BECAUSE of the same things that caused the bubble in the first place.
‘We called them neutron bombs, because the people would go away, and the buildings would stay.’”
Miami=New Detroit (complete with autos like the 6000 SUX)
i also like the following comment (someone should keep a list). This is something that the financial inept folks can understand
“On the housing hangover: ‘We had a three-year fraternity party, and it’s going to take more than a month of Sundays to clean up the mess.’”
I’ll buy that for a dollar
Remember when bloggers here were making the “neutron bomb” comments on how we would have abandoned neighborhoods before this was all done?
Prophetic. Its funny seeing HBB words reappear in the MSM 18 to 24 months after they are shared here.
Note: I take no credit for the “Neutron bomb” comments. That was some other fellow HBB’er’s insight.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Check out Detroit, though, the houses may stay, but they look like they’ve been bombed. Unattended property in sketchy neighborhoods doesn’t last long. If you Drive I-75 through Detroit there are places where you’d swear you’re in a 3rd world civil war zone. Toledo has places nearly as bad.
A Tour of Detroit’s Ghetto:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfhsS-KMFL4&NR=1
What’s weird is that in some of those shots it almost seems like you they are out in the country. Instead of continuing to build out in the suburbs, why not start to raze acres of property in town and re-build from within?
What advantage is there to building in the “hood”?
1) The factories are getting built elsewhere.
2) The minorities resent and attack white people so there is a significant disincentive to build there.
3) Not to mention a disadvantageous tax sturcture in the cities. Better to get across county (or state) lines where laws are more favorable.
Its a survival instinct in a lot of cases. Michigan/Ohio have a lot of open space and farm land.
Well, certainly I’ve oversimplified the situation, but what I see is a lot of waste that should be turned around rather than digging up another farm.
Realtor.com has a house listing 3/1, 1176 feet in Detroit for $1.
Windows & roof cost extra.
People did not know the market was peaking or prices were getting out of range? When my wife and me purchased our home in 2002 in Gainesville (30 yr fixed,20%down,$1224PITI) it was already getting crazy. As we watched houses go up for sale near us in 2003/04/05, people would pull up in mass numbers,running up to grab a flyer and homes only lasted 1 or 2 weeks. When we wanted 1 more bedroom, we started looking in 06/2006 and where ever we went , no one was showing up to open houses and many weekends we were the only one on the sign up sheet at the close of the day.We knew something was wrong and started to investigate and found that the market was changing. I found web blogs noting it and stopped looking for homes. Why didnt even well seasoned investore,realtors not notice it. It was obvious!
‘We’ve got a 40-month supply of homes, which has got to be an all-time high. For the foreseeable future, prices are going to keep coming down a bit.’”
I love the new language how much is “a bit”? 10% 30% 50% even more? With a 40 month supply of inventory prices are going to come down a lot. More importantly, with tightening credit standards and higher down payment requirements they will come down a lot. Before that happens though we will see some very slow sales ahead.
Just think about 40 months of carry-costs multiplied by all those properties. 40 months! That’s all wasted money - might as well burn it - of course that’s if they can all last 40 months.
But it was better than “wasting money on rent”;-)
it’s ironic, but the only portion of that money that is not wasted would be the amount these “owners” would otherwise pay in rent.
Chuckle. Good point. But some of those teaser rates were LESS than rent. So people made out well. Unless… they were flippers stuck with a flop.
lol
Got popcorn?
Neil
and don’t forget the “shadow” inventory of FSBO’s, vacant rentals (that are really for sale) etc. I just can’t believe how many of these people are destroying thier net worth by paying outlandish carrying costs month after month, at least 7 vacant houses on our street alone.
Some folks I know here in West Central Fla just sold their home and are socking their money away and moving into a camper to ride out the storm. They’re in the “stuff” business, too, and planning on scaling back their business, because all of a sudden there’s a whole bunch of folks in the area opening thrift stores and junk outlets to compete. (Desperation. Folks lose their jobs and then think they can work for themselves) I told them if they could hold on, their johnny come lately competitors would soon be out of business.
Their property, BTW, was sold at $30,000 below appraisal. But they are OK because they bought their place years ago well before the bubble, so they can take a hit. Not that it doesn’t bother them, they feel like they are “losing” $30,000. I’m happy for them, though, they are good, honest, decent hardworking folks who have been here for a long time and they’re going to hunker down in the camper for a year to see how Florida shakes out. If things aren’t looking good, they’ll move out of state.
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Lots of people have left here over the last two years.
I personally know of three (3) families that cashed out and half-backed to TN, NC…whatever..
Anyhow, what we will see in the near future here in FL are the ones that have roots and want to live here that are staying.
I love the weather and the boating. I want to continue my laid-back lifestyle that I have enjoyed here since I moved to FL in 1981. I don’t expect to be rich and don’t want to be stressed. I just want to enjoy my life where the sun shines most of the year and I can wear shorts and a t-shirt to work in January.
Alot of the people that don’t really belong or want to stay down here are packing up and leaving. Good for them.
Florida has always been a quirky yet cool place to live….and I for one don’t like the recent attempts to “gentrify” every square foot of Florida soil into an expensive “paradise”.
We will hopefully go back to the Florida that always was….low wages, laid back lifestyle, low stress, low cost of living….it will take a few years, but it will moderate itself back to equilibrium with the “way it used to be”.
Dang, Les, you’ve just expressed everything I feel about living here and my fondest hopes for how this will play out in FLA. We oughta get with dimedropped and start us a bulldozing business on the side, for when govmints need all those rotting slum developments plowed under. I’d almost do it fer free.
Maybe I’ll host a tubing party up on one of the rivers when all this is over. All us crackers and honorary crackers can trade bubble stories.
..
Wekiva Springs in Apopka is nice…..Alexander Springs in Ocala is nice too. There’s nothin’ like puttin’ a cooler full of brewskis inside of a tube and floating along the beautiful springs all day.. Thats the REAL Florida…
Headin’ out of Tampa Bay this weekend to catch the Mackrel and Pompano runs
Like I said, if you don’t like the sun and the water Florida is not the place for you ! I am originally from WV and I don’t miss it a bit….
“Wekiva Springs in Apopka is nice…..Alexander Springs in Ocala is nice too. There’s nothin’ like puttin’ a cooler full of brewskis inside of a tube and floating along the beautiful springs all day.. Thats the REAL Florida…”
Testify, brothah! Check out the Itchetucknee River for some great tubing, too. Bit of a trip, but well worth it. Except I’m a bit of a wussy, so I use an inflatable boat rather than a tube…Hey, who needs refrigeration when you’ve got the springs!
Check out the Itchetucknee River for some great tubing, too. Bit of a trip, but well worth it. Except I’m a bit of a wussy, so I use an inflatable boat rather than a tube…Hey, who needs refrigeration when you’ve got the springs!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Testify !! Went down the Itchetucknee River on a gray overcast day long ago when I was a kid.
Talk about hypothermia !! I was as blue as can be when we FINALLY reached the pickup point way way downstream.
Love reading your posts on this blog. I am a lurker living in Winter Haven.
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Hey Ron !
Winter Haven here too….
Housing went crazy here in WH, did it not ?!?!?
BTW, I live on Lake Cannon.
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I’m in, looking forward to it. BTW, leave the brews for the camp site. Most of the springs don’t allow alcoholic beverages to be brought on rafts, and those that do (*cough* Ginnie Springs) are littered to hell with beer cans and trash.
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Nah. Its OK. Been there and done that.
1) Bring cans. Keep them in the cooler. Full and empty.
2) Use a koozie or a cup outside the cooler.
3) Wink at the FWC or Sheriff ( if they are around ) as you float by. They will wink right back.
4) Don’t get obliviously trashed. Keep it cool.
If you keep it down, are discreet and remember that there are kids around you can easily get away with it.
4) Don’t get obliviously trashed. Keep it cool.
5) Get out of the water to pee if I am behind you!
Wekiva Springs in Apopka is nice
More like Awesome! I really enjoy going to this park and floating down the spring fed river. I also enjoy knowing there are no alligators in it because the water is to cold!
Hmmmm…..that’s a fallacy. The alligators prefer warmer water, but they can also be found in the 73′ water in all Florida springs. The reason you won’t see many gators there is because they don’t like people…at least the ones that J6P hasn’t fed.
“I just want to enjoy my life where the sun shines most of the year and I can wear shorts and a t-shirt to work in January.”
I’ll be 47 next month and made my first ever trip to Florida for the 2007 New Year long weekend. The weather couldn’t have been more perfect….82, 83 every day and mostly sunny. I was in Naples.
Was wearing shorts and flip flops on New Year’s Day and had an ice cream cone…all a first for me for January. I was hooked. Took the red eye back to Detroit that night. Boy did that suck.
As Red Buttons used to say in the old Silver Springs Shores commercials, COME ON DOWN, Blano!
Lol, careful what you ask for!!!! If my income situation doesn’t change sometime soon I might just have to blow this pop stand sooner than I thought. And I like the sound of ocean breezes way better than that of my furnace, which came on last night.
On TV, I saw orchid hunters in one of the Everglade swamps. They said October is the best time to hunt since that’s when the water level is highest. Just one kind of experience unique to Florida that gets lost in all the flim-flam.
If one of the collateral effects of this housing bubble is that Florida gets to reclaim and/or retain some of its “local flavor”, then bring on the crash!
Seriously. I’m all for that. Same goes for South Jersey. Yeah, it’s jersey, but there are some nice places in South Jersey that got totally screwed up by this shite.
My apologies if this posts twice:
“I just want to enjoy my life where the sun shines most of the year and I can wear shorts and a t-shirt to work in January.”
You just described my thinking to a tee. I’ll be 47 next month and took my first ever trip to Florida for New Year’s 2007. It was 82, 83 every day and sunny…couldn’t have been more perfect. I was in Naples.
New Year’s Day I had shorts and flip flops on and got an ice cream cone….all a first for this boy for Jan. 1. I was hooked. Someday I will spend another New Year’s Day just like that one.
That night I took the red eye back to Detroit. Boy did that suck.
Blano
look for Palmy when you move down to Fl / he’ll be easy to see, driving the smog belching ford truck w/overhead camper, fishing poles in the tow-behind-alum-jon-boat filled w. coors, weaving the hell across lanes while doing 45mph, and the must-have ” We Don’t Care HOW You Did It Up North” bumper sticker.
If that ain’t a description of a Walkin Lawton He-Coon, I don’t know what is . .. !?!
(come visit us Palmy - I’ll be the one drivin the BMW, convertible of course, shades, trophy wife w/implants, Keep Tahoe Blue bumper sticker, while filling up at a white-trash ARCO station on food stamps. Appearances, dontcha know )
Back in ‘77 when I lived in So.flo you didn’t flip houses to suppliment low wages, you did what most people did and sold drugs.
For a time, drug smuggling was a major industry in the Keys. Hence the term “square grouper,” referring to bales of marijuana.
they feel like they are “losing” $30,000
Palmetto: Wait until next year, they will feel that they made the right decision. Most of the realtors I have talked to in the Tampa Bay area have been telling people, myself included, that home prices are going back up and what you read in the media is not true. They have been informing people not to lower their prices too much because the NAR thinks the correction is now over. I just laugh at them and wish them the best.
Anybody paying $354,000 for the privilege of owning a tract house in Land O’Lakes should buy the Brooklyn Bridge next.
“‘It’ll make you sicker than West Palm water if I tell you how many homes are for sale,’ Davis said.”
I love this guy. He’s just full of folksy Florida cracker expressions today. He’ll survive, too. People look down on Florida crackers, but they’ll be standing when all the other bodies are floating in the Atlantic and Gulf.
I vastly prefer crackers to the “bocalites” those people area waste of air.
LOL, “Boca Raton” means Mouth of the Rat. And all the people that entered the mouth of the rat during the bubble are cheese.
On another note, I just searched google for a novelty song called “That’s What I Like About Boca” and couldn’t find it in the first four pages, so I guess it’s not around anymore. I think it was about 15 years back, one of those DJ teams in South Florida used to play it, lampooning the white shoe and belt Boca lifestyle.
I approve of his expressions, too. Now, I only want him to shout ‘testify!’
Nothing wrong with West Pam water. Fecal matter is normal, just boil it. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Karma police, arrest this man
He talks in maths
…
This is what you get
This is what you get
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LeLAELIxKY
In Sarasota the just completed tearign down the Quay a circa ’80s multipurpose building and some Irish billionaire is putting up, you guessed it condo towers
I occasionally go to downtown Sarasota on a Friday and/or Saturday night and ALL of the new condos that have been dark are dark.
Beazer Homes to restate 10 years worth of results:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119210834369455953.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business
HUD violations on downpayment assitance
More good news!
Nice find!
Beazer said it may have to reimburse losses on federally insured loans in the event of fraud or misrepresenations by employees to mortgage buyers.
Oops. That won’t help the cashflow…
Of course this means stocks go up!
Got popcorn?
Neil
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WTF !?!?!
HOW DO YOU RESTATE 10 FRIGGIN’ YEARS OF RESULTS !!!
* unfreakinbelieveable *
This is pure fraud, plain and simple.
.
Except one line said the restatement will actually add to the bottom line, which of course will cause the stock to go up.
“The Atlanta single-family home builder said its review found that employees in its mortgage unit violated Department of Housing and Urban Development downpayment assistance rules on federally insured loans going back to at least 2000.”
“Beazer said it may have to reimburse losses on federally insured loans in the event of fraud or misrepresenations by employees to mortgage buyers.”
Interesting. I actually bought an FHA foreclosed Beazer house in 2002 in the Phoenix area. Don’t worry, I sold it in 2005. I wonder if the original owners (who bought in early 2001) were fast-tracked into their loans through Beazer’s mortgage company and their down payment assistance scam.
I was amazed at the time that someone could qualify for a loan, buy a new house, and be facing foreclosure 15 months later. But I guess that will be common as the current housing bust plays out.
““Davis, former president of the Palm Beach County chapter of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers, expects the downturn to deepen into 2008. On the foreclosures that follow negative amortization loans: ‘We called them neutron bombs, because the people would go away, and the buildings would stay.’””
Those WMDs sure get around. There is something sick about the head of the Mortgage Brokers admiting to knowingly being a dealer of WMD’s in print. Anybody gotta rope?
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Better not make a noose outta that rope or you will get accused of a “Hate Crime”
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Are mortgage brokers a protected class under the EEOC?
I would be more excited if they were on the endangered species list.
Here comes the first salvo in the water wars??:
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071011/NEWS05/710110436
Oh, GOOD catch, Blano. Richardson can stuff it up his patootie. yeah, Richardson, standing by while his state overbuilds and his beloved illegals overpopulate. National water policy, my arse. Just to subsidize bad decisions. No wonder some states want to secede.
Richardson is just proving how big a jerk he is. These people want to keep building in places where nothing should be built. Too bad. Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. should reply, “if you want the water, come and get it a$$hole. And bring your shovel. You are going to need it.”
Also New York, Illinois and Ohio. Great Lakes shippers have already had to lighten loads because of lower lake levels. Richardson is an idiot. Does make me wonder if Buffet’s railroad plays are connected?
You live in the desert and you complain that you don’t have any water?
I like the comment that the Northern states should build a pipeline and ship their wastewater to the Southwestern states. NM can can either clean the water or drink Yankee piss.
I agree with Mr. Richardson that a national water policy is needed.
It has been apparent for decades that water usage in the US is poorly allocated. The 8 states that use the Ogallala aquifer are in jeopardy. The “cornhusker state” is only able to grow corn as a result of irrigation. At some point there will be a cost of water.
The Great Lakes water use is determined by international treaties with Canada. In the drought of 1988, the Mississippi ran dry and grains could not be shipped out from the North. One of the Illinois comedian politicians proposed using Lake Michigan to flood the river. It was astounding. Simple math showed all the water in Lake Michigan would not help the Mississippi river.
As a result of this comedians thoughts, the use of Great Lakes water was even further tightened by additional treaties. There are counties, cities, towns and villages within 30 miles of Lake Michigan that have no legitimate access to its waters, these places have been trying to get water for years. And now some comedian in the Western US thinks that the Great Lakes can save their stupidity? The Western US has a better chance of getting water from the Yukon river than from the Great Lakes. (It would also be a great engineering feat.)
I think the last thing this country needs is having the states that shout the loudest getting water from other parts of the country, which is what result from a “national” water policy. Other than that I totally agree with you.
I lived out in Colorado for 4 years. Almost everyone out west, including my grandmother in law who made it through the depression, consistently take for water for granted and waste it. From washing dishes with the water running and then plopping them in dishwasher, to beautiful green lawns, to fountains, to growing melons in the CO high country, everyone seems to regard water in the desert as an unquestioned resource.
One of the reasons I came back east was a deliberate decision not to stake my future in a place. Michigan should not “share” it’s water resources (not that it can anyway) because NM or Co or California wants more water. Shut off the lawns,fountains, and inappropriate agriculture, teach people that they live in a desert and must conserve - only then should MI or another state be asked to share.
maybe the Great Lakes States should suceed from The Union? Am I serious? yes? Do I think it will happen in the next 100 years? Doubt it. However, it is really silly that places like Philadelphia, Boston and New York City are in the same country as Anchorage, Dallas, Dayton, etc.
“One of the reasons I came back east was a deliberate decision not to stake my future in a place. Michigan should not “share” it’s water resources (not that it can anyway) because NM or Co or California wants more water. Shut off the lawns,fountains, and inappropriate agriculture, teach people that they live in a desert and must conserve - only then should MI or another state be asked to share”.
As someone who has worked in this business most of my life, let me share my perspective. We need to take technical feasibility into account. A cubic foot (7.48 gallons) of water weighs 62.4 lbs. It doesn’t just magically migrate from one place to the other because a bureaucrat signs an agreement. Pipelines can cost tens of thousands of dollars per foot. Operating costs can be very high. As Vermonter points out, the cheapest way to “get” more water is to use less water. The second cheapest way is to recycle your own water (reclamation). The people who live in the west are what I would call “hydrologically challenged FBs”. That two inches of precipitation aint gonna get you very far.
DP
Most western water comes from the Colorado highlands. I’ll be dammed if they want to shut down ski slope snow-making for those dumb sh*ts in Vegas; and BTW I own RE in Los Angeles.
They’ll come and get NW water first. What I fear is that some states will be in such bad economic straits that they’ll sell out. “Well they’re giving us $X billion for it” and poof there it goes.
Richardson can die of thirst, for all I care. And, maybe the fat boy should look at a map…we share the Great lakes with Canada, and they are not giving up a bucket. I posted yesterday the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin agreement, and all the affected states and provinces are on board. Want water? You’re going to have an international fight on your hands, bubba.
One of our esteemed financial leaders has a home in west palm beach…
Comp this, herr paulson
“‘It’ll make you sicker than West Palm water if I tell you how many homes are for sale,’ Davis said.”
Something tells me that with all of the fun and games going on in Florida, that place is going to get a reaming. I still haven’t seen why Florida will be able to sustain itself. What warrants these high prices? Good jobs? There’s only a small area of the USA that has jobs that can even remotely support current prices all over, maybe less than 5% of the population.
Isn’t it also odd that the areas with the biggest runups percentage wise are usually the fastest growing ones? Florida and AZ and ID and NV are all fast growing states. Sure there are some exceptions but I’m thinking that this housing bubble is partially caused by some very wierd demographics changes, and it’s not all due to immigration. Ironically the same states that shot up in housing values often times are heavily dependent on government pork. My belief is that the housing bubble might be the result of the political tension in 2000. It’s more than coincidence that people refer to prices dropping back down to that level.
Not anymore, FL is now a shrinking state (more leaving then entering). Specifically because of the high prices, unfair tax system, and high insurance. That’s another one of the multitude of nails in the FL colfin.
The other huge problem is that even if the boomers come; most of what was built in S. FL was 2 types of homes, McMansions and condos. Boomers, IMHO, are not looking for either of them. They had the McMansion, and most are not looking to move into a downtown sector. I think what most boomers want is a reasonably priced home, under 2000 sq/ft, with a low carrying cost.
That type of home has not been built at all in S. FL over the past 5 years. We used to be littered with properties like that; not anymore.
“buyers were forced to take on huge debt purchase a home they wanted to upgrade into.” I am so sick of the word “upgrade.” Why does everyone think they need to or are entitled to upgrade their home, their car, their whole lifestyle?
I actually like the use of the word “forced”. Really?
“buyers decided to take on huge debt to purchase a home they wanted to upgrade into.”
Ernest,
yep the debt is ours and so is the home?? so we quote:
“‘This year went from 12-hundred a mnth to 1450 a month or afraid to lose home,’ Marie Fleurimont who is afraid of losing her home told CBS4’s Ileana Varela.”
Will someone out there (preaching to the choir) please explain to me how any of the a$$hat, sand pounding, nitwit, billy dreamers could possibly think it is ‘their’ house. When i was a kid, we watched Ingalls’ from Little House on the Prarie and the Waltons with their mountian. We watched them burn their mortgage note from the bank, sing and dance, invite the neighbors over to be sloshed on moonshine or what have you because the house was finally THEIRS!!!! Yes, that is what my grandparents and parents taught me….but even the MSM was teaching the same morals and stories back in the ’70s. WTF happened?? Was there an invasion of micro Martians and im/we’re surrounded by zombies?? Has the nineteenth ammendment finally caused irreparable damage?? Is this “As Good as it Gets?” has everyone lost all sense of reason and accountability? Do people rent cars now and have a sense of ownership? Do we have to pay alimony to hookers? (dont answer that if you’ve already said “I do”) How on earth are people struggling to realize that the house ISNT YOUR DAMN HOUSE UNTIL YOU”RE OUT OF DEBT?? The degree is yours even if you have student loans. The wife is yours, or you are hers, i can never figure out which, even if she isnt yet receiving alimony. The kids are yours, even if, especially if, they run away and grafitti a BMW in the neighboring town. The migrains and high blood pressure are yours after you sign the docs. The debt is yours, unless you’re a RE agent with friends in the banking business who can arrange a short sale because ‘no one knew’ that the only ‘professionals’ who cant be sued for mal-practice or misrepresentation were wrong.
But the house…..ohhhhh the house….nope, sorry, that belongs to the bank. B-A-N-K, or nowadays the CDO note holder in the 2nd and 3rd tranche on your 80 and 7th tranche on your 20% along with a basket of other MBS and pension fund UAW workers and civil servants. Well, actually we dont know who really owns the home, but we do know it aint U.
J
did i miss anything ??
Jasper
nahh, nothing important missed, just the knock on the door from the lawn care/window replacement/realtor/jehovah witness people while you were typing that well-crafted comment.
nicely done.
(btw, I’m installing a large mission-style wooden gate on my outer walkway to deter pesky salestypes. Looking to employ an out-of-work realtor for my doorman, gonna make him say):
” this is Carlton, you’re doorman. “
That’s funny…
One of my high school teachers used to call me “Mr. Carlton”
I’ve always liked my ham on wry
I suggest, each house carrying a mortgage should have a name plate outside of the house.
” This residence is financed by XXXXX Bank, Bank owns more than 80% (whatever %) of this house”
The borrower should get a sticker for every 10% pay down to to stick on this plate. He can take down the plate only after he pays it off.
That would put theis “own” and “american dream” in its place
dont you think so ?
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“‘You can beat yourself up, but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?’ Jackson said.”
“‘There were subdivisions that were so heavy with investors that when they threw these homes on the market, they have become disaster areas,’ said the president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, Carlos Fuentes. ‘It’s quite disturbing.’”
Pretty soon FL and CA would be declared national disaster areas by the Federal govt. The next President would promise to make that happen. FL and CA have huge number of electoral votes. Democracy in action!
Jas
“‘You can beat yourself up, but who knew they were overpaying for a house? Who knew it was going to stop?’ Jackson said.”
I can answer both of these questions for this realtor since I live in this area. I knew, because I took the time to do the research instead of the BS coming from the realtors, mortgage brokers and state and National associations. I also knew a crash was coming back in 2005 due to affordability issues based on the incomes within the local economy and the fact that the 1000 people moving to Florida each day was a myth.
Too sum all of this up, the majority of the local realtors, mortgage brokers and state and national associations were passing the kool aid out to their members in large quantities. These people drank it all down and demanded more Kool Aid. I warned several key people involved in the local goverment, but was told this would be the next California and that the NAR and local RE associations were corrrect in their predictions and my information was incorrect.
What was clear to me at the time was the greed factor among this group. These people refused to listen to anyone who warned them and only wanted to hear the positive news, not the reality. Now they are paying the price for their greed, but want people to feel sorry for the poor person stuck with 5 investment properties.
A large portion of these investment properties were bought up by realtors who then increased the prices by $50k - $100K. A large majority of the realtors helped create this mess, now lets see them get out of this mess without any qualified buyers!