Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Hi Ben — Often I only have a chance to check HBB late at night. Unfortunately the Bits Bucket sometimes gets really clogged up (on busy days) and the page doesn’t render correctly (Firefox). So I was going to throw out the idea of lunchtime Bits Bucket. Also, it’d be nice for us west coast people to have a fresh place to make comments later in the day.
Cassie
I don’t know if we’ll do this everyday or often, but here goes-Ben
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
“Don’t you have a machine that puts food into the mouth and pushes it down?”
Nikita Khrushchev
ah, nikita as prophet! 50 years after ‘the great kitchen debate’ the american public gets to chew it’s degraded gruel, wistfully, unaided (as of yet) — and still unconscious — on their granite countertops……..
‘it’s’ should be ‘its’!!! (just in case reuven is watching.)
This is a great idea. So much good stuff gets lost in the bucket later in the day. Like the fact that the NASDAQ went from +20 to -20 in the course of about 15 minutes at 2:00 p.m. today. What does that mean?
–
NASTYQ! down 32 points and counting.
Today could have been the top.
Jas
I have made that assumption too many times. The “PPT” seems to have a lot of ammunition at their disposal. I wouldn’t count them out any time soon. All the builders are still green. “The bottom is in”, don’t you know?
It’s those unpatriotic types that are moving the markets. They hate america./sarcasm off
Quit blogging and be better patriots. Go buy a bunch of $hit you don’t need. That’s how great nations remain great.
Wouldn’t say it’s the PPT, though. More likely low interest rates and overseas sales. If BB lowers rates again Oct 31, I might just put my retirement savings back on the market.
“Today could have been the top.”
The lonely and oft-repeated cry of the permabear.
That is true. One side screams, “the bottom is in” and the other side screams back, “this is the top”.
I coulda been a contenda
The dow and nasdaq were up until 2pm. Then the Hildabeast started talking about her free healthcare on CNBC and the market rolled over and fell out of bed. The more she talked, the more it went down.
And the DOW is headed down hard.
I hope my selling one of my meager stocks during that time, didn’t do it!
DiBNC, the new sell signal!!!!
I am afraid that most of us are looking for a watershed event. Personally, I don’t see it coming. The way down is likely to be drawn out and cumbersome, mainly because the unwinding of the foreclosures are over a long period of time. The only potential watershed event, in my opinion, would the default of a major financial institution. That might cause an immediate and scary domino effect through the derivatives.
What do you think?
I believe most of the people here would agree with you… The correction will be epic, but it will also take time for events to fully play out.
I think the deriviatives problem is going to make huge headlines; it’s only a matter of time until the dominos start falling. It’s inevitable because the derivatives made it seem safer to take on more risk and so unknown, but very large, amounts of risk entered the system that would not have otherwise.
I’ve been saying all along I’d like to see a couple really big Wall Street firms die. Why should they skate, or even be bought out??
do you mean brokers? they make money on every trade, no matter what? Unless they drink their own kool-aid.
Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank governing council member Axel Weber said the bank may need to raise interest rates to a level that restricts economic growth to keep inflation under control.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWKV52Fxn7Gc&refer=home
Wow. Bernanke probably can’t comprehend the fact that a central banker’s main task is to keep inflation low and the money supply under control.
“Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank governing council member Axel Weber said the bank may need to raise interest rates to a level that restricts economic growth to keep inflation under control. ”
nhz, can you give us the odds on a EuroZone rate increase? If they are serious, then I will add to current Euro position.
DP
You the most hilarious part of the Wall St/ K street economic sham? The horrible socialist EU has a $150 BILLION trade surplus with big bad, we’re number one United States…
It makes me laugh the more I think about it.
How much of it has to do with all those Eurotrash cars we import?
Got a hot date with a 1,600 year old…
ta ta for now
hmmmm … something you want to tell us?
it’s the Giant Sequoia Tree thang.
Do they put out at that age??
Yes but only when you set them on fire.
Really - Sequoia’s need fire for their cones to open up and spread the seeds.
So what does aladin do…..walk around with a flamethrower or something and say “spread ‘em”??
A gentleman never flames and tells.
Especially if he wants a re-tap.
LOL! That’s a funny!
I blew 4&20 kisses her way in the guise of smoke signals
Ah, trees… I like them better than plenty of people. And a tree will never try to sell you a toxic loan, too!
I like the Lunchtime Bits!
The way this blog is threaded, the only way to see ‘new’ posts is to look at the time signature - far beyond my ADD/caffeine depleted brain.
I don’t understand the DIJA and its ilk - is there any news, any news at all, that doesn’t make it go up to record highs?
Does Not Compute…
The bullishness on CNBC this week has been unbelievable. That could be a contrary indicator. You would think it’s 1999 all over again. But I think the alchemists on Broad Street can continue to spin this manure into gold.
Maybe people stopped buying the CNBC spin that warm weather is stopping people from buying stuff at Wallie World.
Repost
Everything I know about the REIC, I learned from housing blogs (thank you Ben)
Subtitle: The Four Horsemen of the Housing Apocalypse
And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, David Lereah saying, Come and see.
And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had The Exemption; and two hundred fifty thousand dollars was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.
And when he had opened the second seal, I heard Lew Ranieri say, Come and see.
And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him to securitize mortgages, and that they should leverage CDOs: and there was given unto him a great sword called the rate reset.
And when he had opened the third seal, I heard Robert Shiller say, Come and see. And I beheld, and saw a black horse; and he that sat on him had the Fed funds rate in his hand.
And I heard Alan Greenspan in the midst of the National Association of Realtors say, a measure of abundant liquidity for a penny, and three measures of low risk premiums for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the gold.
And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of Chris Thornberg say, Come and see.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Fraud, and Casey Serin followed with him. And power was given unto them over multiple primary residences, to inflate with false appraisals, and with negative amortization, and with no money down, and with low initial rates.
how about 5,6,7
And the four horses turned to the four winds, one to the South, one to the North, one to the East, and the last to the West. As they rode away, they cried together “The FBs are all Stucco!”.
We’ll find out over the next few years who wears the golden sandals.
Dow = -95
NASDAQ = -45
Cassie:
I have the same trouble with Firefox….it leaves blank spaces after the posters name…
The reason is you have to wait till the whole page loads in…..or hit reload..you are scrolling faster then firefox loads the page.
You can clear this problem in Firefox by double-clicking on the little box with the cross in it, just to the left of the poster’s name.
OOPS I didn’t explain it right, It loads in the box, your name and time but no text….just an empty box
right click on one of these, typically fixes it for me (Firefox 2.0.0.7 on Windows)
Firefox may also render large blocks of grey instead of text. This can be fixed by resizing the window - just grab one of the edges and move it a pixel or two.
Always use Firefox (windows XP) and have never had a problem. Perhaps a Mac issue?
Nah, I’ve seen it occasionally on Firefox on Win XP (Pro) as well.
Sometimes refreshing the page helped; sometimes only helped partially.
For me, just moving the mouse vertically over the gray area fixes it. Otherwise, clicking higher in the thread works. Not enough bother for me to use a different browser, though.
My G4 iMac running Firefox gags whenever the comment count exceeds 200. Sometimes I can open a new window and try again, other times I have to force quit Firefox. When the count hits 300 I don’t even try to load the page.
Could this have anything to do with the amount of RAM? I have 768MB of RAM installed.
I dunno, tiger, my G5 with 1giga has no trouble with the comments using Safari, but it does funny things with Firefox sometimes…
I never have problems with Firefox and my Mac Mini (1GB)
Try Camino. Can’t stand Firefox
http://caminobrowser.org/
It has the same Mozilla guts as Firefox, but uses an OSX native interface.
Personally, I use both Safari and Camino, as some sites work better with different browsers. For whatever reason (perhaps problems in the past?), I’ve gotten into the habit of reading HBB in Safari instead of Camino.
You might want to make sure you are running the latest version of Firefox. These comment pages are really quite small memory-wise, but they use an awful lot of HTML DIV blocks embedded within each other. It’s probably something to do with a memory leak or some debug code or an earlier, horribly inefficient section of code that deals with the DIV+javascript.
These pages on this blog shouldn’t put any stress on the oldest of computers with very little memory.
Thanks for all of the input above.
First I installed Firefox/2.0.0.7 and it is an improvement. The Oct 9 Bits Bucket with 322 comments loaded half a dozen times with no problem. The Oct 10 Bits Bucket with 347 comments loaded but each time the text was jumbled/overlapping even after scrolling down.
So then I installed Camino, which I never heard of ’till now. It handles 347 comments with no problem. Heck, does anyone (other than Ben) actually take the time to read 347 comments?
Thanks again.
One trick (at least in Explorer) to fix the jumbled text is to go to View and resize the text to some other size, than change it back to normal. I have no idea if this would work in Firefox or any other browser, but it is a point to consider.
I don’t like this. Now I have to follow two threads to try to stay current.
Don’t worry we’ll get used to it. As soon as the lunch bits thread arrives, the morning bits will be abandoned, and only one will be effectively active. I’ve seen this happen on other blogs.
Oh. I was kinda hoping it could be a West-coast bits. Oh well, it will at least help so we don’t have to read through all the morning posts again just to see what happened in the afternoon.
Maybe it’s Black Thursday this time
Realtors are forced to reevaluate
White House sets up mortgage alliance
Tide turns for ‘distressed’ debt specialists
Beazer Homes plans to restate results going back almost a decade. The home builder said employees in its mortgage unit violated HUD downpayment assistance rules.
Be sure to check out the interactive map on this one:
Data Show Bad Loans Permeate U.S.
Yikes!
“… an estimated 2 million homeowners whose introductory mortgages with low rates are resetting at much higher rates, just as the housing industry suffers through its steepest downturn in 16 years.”
They always state the situation as if it were just an unhappy coincedence that the market is declining while people’s mortgage rates are simultaneously increasing. Doesn’t the average reporter have any brains? It’s plain as day to me that the ARM resets are driving the housing downturn, just as their introduction drove the spike.
NYs not looking too good on that WSJ submprime interactive map. So much for the “but its different here” crowd.
If you are in an area where median salary is about 3x median home prices, would you buy? Build? Any inflation concers with building costs? Want to build, have a subcontractor that has an awesome team of high quality workers, and with his help cost per sq foot are very reasonable, and I want a well-built efficient house. The issue is obsene land prices. I am in an area that didn’t get out of control and most people from the bubble areas are making their way here. (overland Park, KS) I don’t see much chance of depreciation in prices….Anyone give me their experience with land in non bubbel area in a downturn?
Those obscene land prices will most likely fall before the obscene house prices. We’ve started making low-ball offers on lots, and have been rejected every time so far. But our offers the only ones out there so sooner or later these guys will have to come begging.
Basically, we’ve identified lots we’d like and estimated fundamental worth based upon rent values in given neighborhoods and long term construction costs (lot price can be backed out of the total home price). We’ve been bidding slightly above fundamentals but substantially below asking. Developers and land owners are almost always insulted, etc… But our goal is simply to open a line of communication, so that when they are truly desperate to sell and come back to us we can slice another 10% from our offer and get a good deal.
The key, as always, is to be very patient.
I’d love to live in Overland Park. Very nice area.
When the recent Sprint merger happened, I couldn’t understand why they were moving their headquarters to NoVA — I’d much rather live in the KC/Overland Park area.
http://www.modbee.com/local/story/90253.html
These 3 counties (Merced, Stanislaus and San Joaquin) set in line and next to each other in the Central California, covering about 60 by 100 miles. And they thought Kesterson was a disaster, which by the way is in western Merced County.
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West Coast is in recession!
Jas
Jas,
Do you have an official data point I can reference before I bang the gong here ?
And Ben, thanks for the mid day bucket!
–
See my post on CA recession on morning Bits… Arizona and Nevada are cinch.
Jas
Oh no, all those solar cell start ups are going to save us !
Crazy bloggers, what do they know? The depression is on its way.
You know what they say:
In god some people trust, all others bring data.
And Jas usually gives good data
Give me muchy, cruchy numbers. There are still a double handful of optimists here in Sac county that need to be pounded over the head repeatedly and I’m just the woman to do it.
I don’t know if you’re taking a poll, Ben, but so far I think this is a nice idea.
I agree. “I have a friend who” sometimes posts OT items in the newest thread simply because, as others have noted, doing so in the morning bits bucket means it gets lost.
Great idea!
Count me in as another fan of the lunch bucket idea!
West coaster here, and by the time I get to the bits buckets, it’s dead.
Why not?
nah, nah-na, nah, nah..
“Sellers not countering is now the norm?”
“She doesn’t want to reduce the price because that will lower the offer. She seemed to think that we will get a major lowball and that we most likely will have to take it as is. What really bothered me is she said no one is countering these days. Surely, that can’t be true?
In addition to accepting a disgusting lowball offer, she also said to expect to not only pay closing costs, but discount points and to throw in the fridge and washer/dryer.
I’m stupified and I’m wondering if she is using the tactic of preparing for the worst, hoping for the best?
we are listed at $240K. Most recent comp from Aug 30 sold for $242K - same floorplan, not as updated as our house. She said to expect an offer of about $215K and all closing costs.
Am I wrong to be a bit dumbfounded by this? DH and I discussed it and with the updates we’ve done, we know what our bottom line is. We’re not going to give the house away and not even counter. In our minds, that leaves room for them to come back after the HI wanting even more price cuts.”
http://ths.gardenweb.com/forums/load/realestate/msg1023384930607.html?22
Great thread! It is amazing how many people just think in terms of “I don’t want to be a doormat” or “I’m not giving away the sun and the moon” or “I’ve heard sales are picking up with the snowbird season” instead of “what is the rent equivalent value of my house” or “how much appreciation did I experience over the past 5 years”?
Fine, don’t give your house away. Keep it ;()
I like the lunch bit buckets… so much good info gets lost and I waste a lot of time re-reading posts trying to find the new ones later at night.
so does this count as what the technical analysts call “an outside key reversal to the downside?” on volume greater than the uptick on Maria-Bartolomo-groaning-like-she’s-taking-a-350-point-schlong day?
I tried to add this a couple of days ago:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21082646/
A real sympathetic FB, not a speculator, a living large HELOCer, or someone who never saved a dime. A young naiive first time buyer who was buffaloed into buying a house (or be priced out forever) with an exploding mortgage (you can refinance) and is now facing personal banrkputcy.
Famous last words from a lemming without a clue…”If they had counseled me (correctly), I could’ve made my payments.”
“Famous last words from a lemming without a clue…”If they had counseled me (correctly), I could’ve made my payments.” ”
Certainly a calculator and a 20-minute lesson on amortization would be cheaper than this debacle. Weren’t these people wondering what the PMT function on Excel does?
What is the PMT function on Excel? I’ve never seen it.
Fearful of missing out, she and her younger sister decided to buy a home together. “We just wanted to get a piece of land, something we could own, so we weren’t paying rent; we were buying,”
You call her young and naive; I just see her as part of the current “gimme-gotta-have-it” mentality. Two young couples I know jumped into a home purchase this year, for the same reasons Toothman expresses. They had to own something. They were “tired” of paying rent. The one young woman went into it with the full blessing of her parents, though I don’t think they contributed to the down payment.
If her folks had fully comprehended that their daughter and BF were buying at the top of the market, and signing off on a lifetime of being overextended, I know they would have counseled against it. But like the majority of folks around here, they honestly believed that real estate can only go up.
From what I’ve seen, 20-somethings are especially sensitive to the stigma of being renters only.
From the same article:
For Toothman, the nightmare continues. She cannot qualify for a car loan. Her credit card interest rates jumped from 5 percent to 22 percent, due to missed payments while juggling mortgage bills. She wonders who will date a woman with $82,000 in debt.
Oh, I think somebody may still “date” you. I’m just not sure that anyone would enter into a binding commitment with you.
MrBubble
Oh, Mr. Bubble, don’t be so mean. This will be good for her because it will help her spend more time finding a rich husband instead of settling for one who can’t pay her exorbitant bills. She’ll be much happier in the long run.
Heh. Actually, my brother took over his wife’s law school loans and she promptly got pregnant and hasn’t worked a day since. So you may be right about this one, Big V. And I haven’t had a date since June so what the **** do I know about love or money? Not much.
Uh, “dating” someone with 82k in debt sounds less painful than “tooth-man”
Sorry, its been 5 minutes
MIght as well just pay and get a pro.
20-somethings have historically been renters. Gotta credit the NAR with persuasive advertising. I just heard the “We’re tired of renting” comment at work a week ago, justifying the purchase of a home…..two months after the couple married. Sigh
A single friend of mine, in her 40s, was under a lot of pressure by her mother and others in the family to “get in before it’s too late” in 2005. I told her no way, no way, no way and she listened — one of the few who did. Wonder if the family would have bailed her out, had she bought when they said to. Now, she can begin looking in a year or two and even if it’s not absolute bottom, she’ll have saved a lot.
Hope she thanked you, Chip! Glad to hear of your success story.
Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest arranger of U.S. leveraged loans, is eliminating as much as 10 percent of the jobs in groups that financed buyouts and packaged debt into securities, a person familiar with the situation said.
…
JPMorgan may have to write down its leveraged loan and mortgage-related holdings by about $2 billion, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein estimated in an Oct. 5 report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayLefc6PEOts&refer=home
I’m getting ready to make an offer on a big ol’ fixer upper: about 40% off of asking as I think the price reflects the sellers’ distorted perception that the house doesn’t need that much work. It’s a big house and it looks like no one has done anything to maintain it for 25 years. Anyone have any advice for how to make the offer without looking like someone who is “trying to steal” the property? I’m thinking of submitting a letter to the realtor containing comps, restoration needs and my ballpark estimate of the costs of renovation - or would that be a waste of time?
If you’re going to offer at 40% below you’re going to look like a stealer no matter what to them. But why should you care?? You shouldn’t have any concern with what the seller thinks. They either take it or they don’t. And let them know any counter by you will be lower than the original offer. If they decline, NEXT!!
Do a pre-offer inspection- either by yourself, or take a friend/pro. Make a detailed list of the things the house needs. Do not list cosmetc things; you will potentially insult the seller, and look like you’re nitpicking. Make a fair and honest estimate at what it will require to make the listed repairs; and make an offer reflecting those costs- my reccomendation would be to do so “as is”. Force the seller to weigh your (low) “as is” offer, vs. having to make those repairs anyway under a future contract contingent upon inspections. I’ve seen it work.
Once the seller is aware of the repairs needed, she HAS to disclose them to any other prospective buyer. She can no longer pretend that she’s old and had ‘no idea’.So the pre-offer inspection is a real good idea.
Or, make a “reasonable” offer and then hack it to shreds after your contingent inspection….lowering the price by tens of thousands.
If, for example, the seller is asking $400K and you want to offer $240K, how much are you going to have to put back into it, to bring it up to comps with the good stuff nearby? $100K could go into it in a hurry and then you have a net savings that is pretty modest. While you have the advantage of picking out your own shingles, your description of the owner makes it sound to me like there isn’t much chance you’re going to get a really great deal. All IMO, of course, and based on skimpy information, but it sounds like possibly an older owner with an impression of the house’s condition and value that is just not valid. If he/she does not have a strong need to sell, what about finding someone who does?
“Anyone have any advice for how to make the offer without looking like someone who is “trying to steal” the property? I’m thinking of submitting a letter to the realtor containing comps, restoration needs and my ballpark estimate of the costs of renovation - or would that be a waste of time? ”
Well, its not a waste of time. Even if they don’t want to sell to you at that price now, when prices go down in the future and as they get more desperate to sell, they might come back to you to see if you’re still interested. Your name is at the top of the list, so to speak.
I just received this from a local realtor(TM). Hopefully the tables will post legibly. Note that the median went up for the south Santa Barbara County area (this excludes the subprime messes of Santa Maria, Lompton, etc). Dragged up by Hope Ranch, Montecito, and Summerland (Summerland includes Padaro Lane-the finest real estate in the country, where it truly is different). Within those three locales there is usually a $20MM + sale or two every month, rain, shine, tightened lending, whatever ($20MM+ sales are generally all cash).
I expect a full page article in the Santa Barbara News-Supress- “The Market has bottomed!”
Following is a comparative review of south Santa Barbara County real estate statistics for the first three quarters of 2007.
CORT REPORT ~ SEPTEMBER 2007
South Santa Barbara County
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price Number of Sales over $1 Million
September 2007 110 1,754,654$ 962,000$ 53
September 2006 129 1,536,847$ 905,000$ 55
September 2005 193 1,602,466$ 1,075,000$ 101
September 2004 200 1,282,417$ 917,500$ 72
September 2003 211 915,753$ 740,000$ 49
September 2002 204 895,381$ 625,000$ 41
Santa Barbara
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
September 2007 48 1,477,652$ 905,000$
September 2006 64 1,437,336$ 932,500$
September 2005 97 1,356,675$ 1,030,000$
September 2004 79 1,181,949$ 950,000$
September 2003 107 793,780$ 750,000$
September 2002 96 874,204$ 650,000$
Goleta
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
September 2007 23 1,094,005$ 861,000$
September 2006 28 781,446$ 830,750$
September 2005 44 914,965$ 867,500$
September 2004 67 1,108,544$ 815,000$
September 2003 44 755,772$ 652,500$
September 2002 57 667,160$ 553,000$
Carpinteria
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
September 2007 13 851,252$ 650,000$
September 2006 11 1,055,227$ 650,000$
September 2005 16 1,627,968$ 957,500$
September 2004 24 1,014,000$ 812,500$
September 2003 24 718,541$ 605,500$
September 2002 17 450,941$ 413,000$
Isla Vista
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
September 2007 2 1,175,000$ 1,175,000$
September 2006 2 1,175,000$ 1,175,000$
September 2005 0
September 2004 0
September 2003 1 1,375,000$ 1,375,000$
September 2002 4 1,119,500$ 538,250$
Hope Ranch
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
September 2007 5 3,193,000$ 2,850,000$
September 2006 2 1,081,500$ 1,081,500$
September 2005 4 2,761,250$ 2,362,500$
September 2004
September 2003
September 2002
Summerland
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
September 2007 1 2,485,000$ 2,485,000$
September 2006 4 1,084,750$ 1,026,000$
September 2005 5 2,170,000$ 1,800,000$
September 2004 6 1,007,083$ 927,500$
September 2003 9 784,944$ 862,500$
September 2002 6 1,938,500$ 600,000$
Unincorporated Area
Month Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
September 2007 1 2,550,000$ 2,550,000$
September 2006 0
September 2005 0
September 2004 2 1,193,500$ 1,193,500$
September 2003 0
September 2002 1 34,000$ 34,000$
South Santa Barbara County
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price Number of Sales over $1 Million
Jan - Sept 2007 1359 1,879,523$ 1,071,000$ 734
Jan - Sept 2006 1309 1,700,206$ 1,035,000$ 686
Jan - Sept 2005 1859 1,571,872$ 1,015,000$ 956
Jan - Sept 2004 1957 1,278,676$ 875,000$ 725
Jan - Sept 2003 1798 994,888$ 702,250$ 482
Jan - Sept 2002 2037 894,499$ 610,000$ 413
Santa Barbara
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 680 1,407,559$ 1,036,000$
Jan - Sept 2006 649 1,303,721$ 1,050,000$
Jan - Sept 2005 920 1,287,373$ 1,000,000$
Jan - Sept 2004 947 1,115,235$ 899,000$
Jan - Sept 2003 886 929,371$ 730,000$
Jan - Sept 2002 1039 764,513$ 625,000$
Goleta
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 273 102,656,339$ 831,000$
Jan - Sept 2006 309 1,128,343$ 862,000$
Jan - Sept 2005 436 1,035,522$ 878,000$
Jan - Sept 2004 500 917,225$ 785,000$
Jan - Sept 2003 469 696,791$ 630,000$
Jan - Sept 2002 487 599,585$ 523,000$
Carpinteria
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 107 1,394,358$ 805,000$
Jan - Sept 2006 75 1,262,220$ 898,000$
Jan - Sept 2005 141 1,293,443$ 850,000$
Jan - Sept 2004 172 1,059,235$ 679,500$
Jan - Sept 2003 160 724,840$ 560,000$
Jan - Sept 2002 160 614,848$ 467,000$
Montecito
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 206 3,875,818$ 2,647,500$
Jan - Sept 2006 184 3,309,547$ 2,400,000$
Jan - Sept 2005 239 3,091,414$ 2,295,000$
Jan - Sept 2004 246 2,655,697$ 1,962,500$
Jan - Sept 2003 208 2,123,276$ 1,662,500$
Jan - Sept 2002 244 2,136,524$ 1,500,000$
Isla Vista
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 18 2,550,303$ 1,400,000$
Jan - Sept 2006 22 4,295,085$ 1,537,500$
Jan - Sept 2005 26 2,937,442$ 1,205,000$
Jan - Sept 2004 18 2,051,777$ 1,100,000$
Jan - Sept 2003 10 759,900$ 693,500$
Jan - Sept 2002 17 769,687$ 539,500$
Hope Ranch
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 31 4,295,581$ 2,975,000$
Jan - Sept 2006 15 3,127,767$ 3,000,000$
Jan - Sept 2005 28 2,761,250$ 2,700,000$
Jan - Sept 2004
Jan - Sept 2003
Jan - Sept 2002
Summerland
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 36 4,874,000$ 2,398,250$
Jan - Sept 2006 42 4,003,643$ 1,560,000$
Jan - Sept 2005 50 2,428,300$ 1,306,000$
Jan - Sept 2004 55 1,731,672$ 920,000$
Jan - Sept 2003 48 1,105,385$ 909,500$
Jan - Sept 2002 73 1,155,314$ 627,500$
Unincorporated Area
YTD Number of Sales Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
Jan - Sept 2007 8 1,841,625$ 2,117,500$
Jan - Sept 2006 13 1,354,731$ 1,210,000$
Jan - Sept 2005 19 1,597,052$ 1,500,000$
Jan - Sept 2004 19 1,050,842$ 662,000$
Jan - Sept 2003 17 1,195,176$ 1,100,000$
Jan - Sept 2002 17 1,051,500$ 1,050,000$
I am trying to figure out how in the world this is going to do anything. Also, if they also want to lift the 417k limit with this bill?
http://tinyurl.com/2hd2ey
House and Senate lawmakers said Thursday they will support legislation that permits Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase holdings of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities by $74 billion each, or 10 percent above current limits of $735 billion - for six months.
6 months. LOL.
6 months is always the gummint camel’s nose under the tent. Then it gets extended and increased. Just death by a thousand cuts — it’s the congressional way.
Homebuilers kicking major behind today. Must be all the good news on housing lately.
Who’s buying this junk?
(It’s now officially junk BTW:)
NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday cut its ratings on home builders Centex Corp (CTX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Lennar Corp (LEN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Pulte Homes (PHM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to junk status, saying it expects bleak housing industry conditions to linger at least until 2009.
Crappy idea, just make sure we get a wall street and washington thread each day. The early bits and that are the most valuable thing on this blog.
OK, dude, just don’t read the lunch buckets then. WTF?
You’re being very un-dude…
Sorry, just thinking about going to LebowskiFest in LA this weekend.
i think Bush had a meeting with yun.
Bush: U.S. housing weakness not nationwide
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1127079020071011?rpc=44
Not to be a wet blanket but I kind of like just going to the one Bits Bucket. I just scroll from the bottom up at the end of the day to get the latest info. No problem.
Also I am a big fan of the mid day Wall Street and Washington Thread.
Also I am a big fan of the mid day Wall Street and Washington Thread.
Me too. When I’m busy I only read the bits and WS and Wash thread.
Heard today in the company lunchroom:
“It’s a bad time to sell, but it’s a great time to buy.”
Creative people.
(Shrug.)
–
October 11, 2007
Properties Secured by Debt During the Great Depression
Someone has asked about farmers during the Great Depression.
Excerpts from SINCE YESTERDAY: The 1930s In America by Frederick Lewis Allen (the author of ONLY YESTERDAY, an account of 1920s):
“To begin with, quantities of farmers had lost their farms during the hideous early years of the Depression – lost them by reason of debt. These farms had mostly fallen into the hands of banks or insurance companies, or small town investors who had held the mortgages on them, or were being held by government bodies for non-payment of taxes, or had been bought in at tax sales. AS early as 2034, the National Resources Board stated that nearly thirty percent of total value of farm land in the West North Central States was owned by “creditor or government agencies which have been compelled or take over the property.” …The tentacles of the octopus of metropolitan financial control reached more deeply than ever before into the prairie country – though one must add this octopus was a most unwilling one, and would have been only too glad to let go if it could only get its money back.”
Yes, getting “money back” is not an alternative during depressions. What happened to farms “in the West North Central States” would happen to homes across America that are far more leveraged than the farms were before the beginning of the Great Depression.
Jas
Everyone here should read “Only Yesterday” (and “Since Yesterday”). Exceptional book.
You can excerpt entire passages from “Only Yesterday” (talking about the 1920’s boom years) and you’d think they were, word for word, from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.
History rhymes.
MOSCOW (Thomson Financial) - Russia’s central bank lowered the interest rate on roubles used to carry out currency swap transactions to an annual 8 pct from 10 pct, effective today, in an effort to stabilise short-term rates on the currency market, Interfax reported.
The central bank also said the move should help regulate the liquidity of the banking system.
Banks actively use currency swaps during unstable periods on currency markets and also when experiencing problems with liquidity
***************************************
and I thought a 50 bps move by the FED was outrageous
I’m a part-time professional musician and scour the craigslist music instrument posts. I’ve that cheap drum sets, large speaker cabinets, grand pianos, and high dollar guitars seem to be coming out of the wood work recently (things that take up lots of space, and collectible things worth a lot of green). Readjusted IO ARMS don’t pay themselves, do they? Well, this guy is not at all subtle about it.
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/mld/msg/446674710.html
Side effect of the housing crash: I’m going to score lots of sweet equipment on the cheap. (None of this guy’s stuff is priced right, but he’ll get desperate.)