Buyers Don’t Want To Miss Out In Florida
The Sun Sentinel reports from Florida. “The future of historic home builder Levitt and Sons is in doubt as the crumbling housing market drains the company of cash. Fort Lauderdale-based Levitt Corp., the company’s parent, said Friday it plans to take pretax charges of $160 to $170 million as a result of losses on Levitt and Sons’ home-building inventory. The charges are in addition to charges and write-offs of $99 million in prior periods.”
“Levitt and Sons is trying to restructure its outstanding debt, but no long-term agreement has been reached. Without a pact, ‘Levitt and Sons’ viability is uncertain,’ the parent company said.”
“Three weeks ago, Levitt Corp. said it was laying off as many as 200 of its 573 employees. At the time, Levitt Corp. Chairman Alan Levan said prices that some of the builder’s homes were selling for were ‘un-economic and below cost.’”
“Analysts originally expected South Florida’s housing market to improve late this year or next, but now they don’t see a rebound before 2009. ‘The pain here and the depth of the problems are more than anybody anticipated a year and a half ago,’ said Anthony Trella, a home-building consultant in Deerfield Beach.”
“Miami-based housing analyst Lewis Goodkin said he expects new-home prices to drop by 20 percent or more in the coming year from their 2005 peak. ‘Some people have made the statement that the market has already bottomed out,’ Goodkin said. ‘I couldn’t disagree more. We’ve got to get prices down to where true users can afford them.’”
“In retrospect, builders should have started scaling back operations in 2005, said David Levin, a housing consultant in Delray Beach. ‘But it was hard to be thinking like that when you saw everyone making a fortune,’ Levin. ‘You never know where the top and the bottom of the market are until they’re past.’”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Resales of homes and condos in the Orlando area had their worst month in more than 8 1/2 years in September, when they fell 55 percent from a year earlier.”
“It was the worst year-over-year percentage plunge in sales so far in 2007, and the worst on record going back at least a dozen years. And it occurred despite falling prices and concerted efforts by local Realtors to move buyers and sellers to the closing table.”
“Realtors are feeling the pressure to scrape by on ‘crumbs’ until the market picks up again, said David DeLoach, broker in St. Cloud. ‘I’ve still got my lights on — I just paid the light bill,’ DeLoach said. ‘We’re just trying to make it through this. We’re not expecting it to last, because there is pent-up demand from buyers. I know that.’”
“Many buyers, he said, tell him and other Realtors that they don’t want to buy a home too soon and ‘miss out’ should prices continue to decline. ‘But it’s like the stock market,’ DeLoach said. ‘You don’t know if you are buying at the bottom. If you need to buy [a home], stop trying to time the market. That’s what I tell people.’”
“John Fridlington, executive VP of the Florida Association of Realtors, said the housing slump presents an unusual set of circumstances that is testing the industry’s staying power.”
“‘It just takes time,’ Fridlington said. The Orlando-based trade association, with more than 100,000 members statewide, does not have the power to turn the market around. ‘No one does,’ he said.”
The Herald Tribune. “If foreclosures continue at the record pace clocked in August and September, Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties could see more than 1,500 homes taken back by lenders this year.”
“That is an average of nearly 30 homes per week. It is a figure roughly four times the total number of homes seized by lenders in 2006 and would dwarf the 278 the previous year.”
“The 215 repossessions documented by California-based RealtyTrac in September would represent nearly a quarter of the 910 homes that Realtors sold in the whole region during August, the most recent month for which those statistics are available.”
“Another factor has the potential to swell foreclosures this year in this region: the loans made by Bradenton-based Coast Bank to customers of failed builder Construction Compliance Inc.”
“‘Many disgruntled clients of Coast Bank and others, including SunTrust, National City Mortgage and First Florida Bank, may be facing foreclosure over nonpayment for unfinished homes built by Construction Compliance,’ said Sarasota attorney Alan Tannenbaum (who) represents more than 100 former customers of the St. Petersburg-based builder who are suing the bank.”
“If that were to happen, close to 500 homes could be added to the region’s already swollen statistics. ‘There were a large number of investor/speculators, and I suspect many of the foreclosures will fall in that category,’ said Tramm Hudson, a veteran Southwest Florida banker working as a spokesman and adviser for Coast.”
“John Yanchek, the Sarasota attorney who represented Neal Mohamad Husani in his whirlwind real estate deals, has lost a house on Bird Key. On July 12, the circuit court in Sarasota County ruled that Yanchek owed Chase Bank $2.05 million and ordered that the house be sold at public auction.”
“Yanchek’s situation illustrates how a foreclosure can have an impact far beyond the home’s owner. John and Marjorie Meyer live next door, and they have watched the bank-seized property fall into disrepair. ‘They have performed no maintenance in years,’ John Meyer said.”
The Atlanta Journal Constitution from Georgia. “Kevin Esch was in week four of his condo hunt. Was he getting antsy? Not in the least. Esch can take his time. Atlanta is awash in condos.”
“‘At a time when the pace of new development needed to slow, a record 3,050 units were started in the first half of 2007,’ researcher David Haddow said. ‘Atlanta’s intown condominium market has clearly entered the danger zone.’”
“A record 6,000-plus units are under construction, Haddow reported. Enough condos are out there to meet demand for the next 31 months, his figures show. Haddow’s calculations don’t include the projects that have been proposed but not started, such as the two Trump Towers in Midtown.”
“‘It’s the slowest market I’ve ever actually worked in,’ said real estate agent Geoffrey Greene.”
“Market changes caused the glut. In 2004 and 2005, Atlanta enjoyed a run-up in condo sales as intown living grew in popularity and easy credit made home ownership possible for more people. Last year, buyer exuberance began to peter out and sales returned to levels closer to the norm. Condo projects, however, marched on.”
“From mid-2006 to mid-2007, condo sales fell to 2,239 units, sharply off the prior two years, when an average of 4,000 units sold, Haddow reported.”
“Gigi Giannoni, president of Evolv real estate service, said one reason for the downturn is that investors who had hoped to rent and sell condos lost confidence and fled the market. ‘A lot of developers ran into that problem, that investors just decided to pull out,’ Giannoni said. ‘Under-contract condos went empty.’”
“Coro Realty Advisors switched to apartments for its Buckhead Place project on Peachtree Road. Wood Partners announced a similar switch for a tower at The Streets of Buckhead site. Kim King Associates dropped plans to build condos atop the Hotel Palomar, now under construction in Midtown.”
“‘It’s not that they don’t want to buy,’ Mark Randall, a director with Wood Partners, said about condo hunters. ‘They’re scared to buy.’”
“Randall said he’s been trying to bat down rumors that the Trump Towers project, which Wood is shepherding, is gasping. ‘I can tell you the way I’m writing checks right now, it’s not dead,’ he said. ‘We continue to sell units. We will get started because we’re Trump.’”
I want to miss out in Florida. There’s a loooooooong way to go!
Ashley Taylor joined 2,000 other jobs seekers at the Manatee Civic Center on Wednesday looking for work at a time when Southwest Florida’s unemployment rate is the highest that it has been in decades.’
‘I don’t go nowhere; I don’t do anything; right now my gas tank is on E,’ Taylor said. ‘The classifieds don’t even have anything in them anymore.’
‘HD Supply, a building and supply wholesale distribution company, is closing its truss plant on Whitfield Avenue and laying off all 55 employees. Shipments of lumber, plywood and fencing materials through Port Manatee that exploded during the housing boom have dropped significantly. The port is expecting 2007 imports could drop to half last year’s shipments.’
“Ashley Taylor joined 2,000 other jobs seekers at the Manatee Civic Center on Wednesday looking for work at a time when Southwest Florida’s unemployment rate is the highest that it has been in decades.’
West Central Florida posters might be familiar with the Ashley Furniture commercials: “Check-a check it out I’m Ashley!” Maybe she could get a job being one of the Ashley girls. She’s right about the classifieds, though. At the height of the bubble, the jobs section of the Sunday Tampa Tribune was fairly thick. Not so these days, pretty scary. Although I’m sure some of that has to do with Monster, etc.
I don’t go nowhere;
English teacher ?
unemployment stats are going to be exposed as fraud
‘I don’t go nowhere; I don’t do anything; right now my gas tank is on E,’ Taylor said. ‘The classifieds don’t even have anything in them anymore.’
Good.. In your spare time you can learn the correct use of “nowhere” and “anywhere”.
That is the correct use in “Ebonics”.
Where have you been?
Don’t you remember that school boards wanted to give credit as a foreign language for this special dialect??
That is the correct use in “Ebonics”.
- Here in the SoCal hood, that would be correct.
That’s how they speak in “da hood” and “them thar trailer parks”
“Levitt Corp. Chairman Alan Levan said prices that some of the builder’s homes were selling for were ‘un-economic and below cost.’”
LMAO! “Un-economic”. I guess that depends on your point of view. But hey, they may be below cost, but they’ll never go below market and that’s a fact!
If so, they paid too much for the land. But it shows they will sell at a loss to liquidate the problem.
Exactly right. Levan’s what I call a Florida survivor. He may get bloodied, but he’ll still be standing after the storm, even if he’s standing on crutches.
Especially in FL. As many have pointed out, our carrying costs for property in FL hover close to 4% of value (assuming no MTG) that’s a HELL of an alligator to feed.
They will sell at a loss just to get the alligators off their backs. Kind of makes me laugh, I never say in any of my college economics books that “Builders are promised a profit on every single home they sell”…. Although it appears that is the mentality of some of these folks..
Ben is exactly right, many of these idiots paid 3-10X the real value of the land. And they paid too much to have them built, too much for materials, etc…. Their costs are too high, not the price being too low….
How does one know the true value of land. That’s something I can’t figure out.
Recall all those discussions on gross margins.
All those who claimed, these guys could drop prices and sell and make a profit. 3rd inning and the weak are already falling…
As Ben says, they probably paid too much for the land.
Unlike the national builders who do these “magical writedowns” on their land and then are able to keep their phony margins in place these guys are screwed.
Soon the national HB’s will be in the same boat.
I don’t think this word means what he thinks it means.
uneconomic, uneconomical (adjs.)
are synonyms, each meaning “wasteful, costly.” They lived in a lavish style, uneconomic [uneconomical] and prodigal.
It was uneconomical for the suckers who bought at the top. It was very economical for the sellers who made off like thieves.
“The pain here and the depth of the problems are more than anybody anticipated a year and a half ago,…”
I’m sure we could round up one or two people here that anticipated exactly what’s happening.
And were vigorously flamed for pointing it out.
Yup, I am sure that wouldn’t be a problem at all.
And guess what? They think they are “deep” in the problems now? They have another 3-5 years of downturn; which, IMHO will only accelerate over the next 2 years (and then level off with slow steady depreciation). Its like the thumbscrews haven’t even been taken off the shelf and they are already screaming for mercy.
They have no idea (or won’t tell anyone) how bad this is really going to get. FL has a massive inventory overhang, crazy price, insurance and tax crisis, and a net out migration. You tell me how that’s going to end up!
Once prices in Florida fall, won’t the migration flow kick back up?
Here in my region (Southeastern Virginia) one of the excuses for the 100% increase in prices in the past 3 years is that all these wealthy people from other areas are moving here to retire, or to take advantage of the once cheap cost of living. The issue with this idea is what happens when they can’t sell their home in NY or NJ or PA? And what happens when it’s cheaper to move elsewhere, someplace more desireable? And what happens when they decide they really don’t want to live here? Once people realize it’s a soul-less mass of suburban sprawl with many cities that don’t co-operate (along with a decent ghetto factor), I assume people are going to look to leave.
I think once areas like Florida get cheap again, people will continue to look to move there for retirement.
After the rain.
I tend to disagree that Florida will ever be “cheap” again.
Especially as you see our goverment not wanting to “let go” of the pot of gold they collected over the years of property value run up. Also, insurance companies never “lower” their premiums in a state like Florida. Between the cost of property taxes and insurance the days of “cheap” Florida are long gone..price correction or no price correction…
“They have no idea (or won’t tell anyone) how bad this is really going to get. FL has a massive inventory overhang, crazy price, insurance and tax crisis, and a net out migration. You tell me how that’s going to end up!”
Much like it did after the 1920s Florida RE crash. Florida will survive. It won’t be pretty, but we’ll survive. Start acclimating yourself to the heat in case we have brownouts. And stay as far as you can from places like St. Pete inner city and Riviera Beach.
“And stay as far as you can from places like St. Pete inner city and Riviera Beach.”
That list should be MUCH longer.
Feel free to add, Toastie! Certain parts of Lakeland, Orlando (one of the top four US cities for violent crime), Jax, Sistrunk Blvd. in Ft. Laud, Liberty City in Miami, Town and Country in Tampa?
” If you need to buy [a home], stop trying to time the market. That’s what I tell people.’”
Yeah, tell that to the folks who bought in summer/fall of 2005. They can take comfort in the fact they didn’t try to “time” the market.
And I’m sure he was telling people “Buy now or be priced out forever!” back then too.
If he had read this blog he’d be laughing his a$$ off right about now.
Yeah, because he doesn’t want to work in the darl.
*dark
” If you need to buy [a home], stop trying to time the market. That’s what I tell people.’”
Basically, this boils down to “I need to make sales; if everyone times the market, which moves at tortose speed and is INCREDIBLY easy to watch, then I will starve to death”. I would love, love, love to find a quote of this guy saying “Buy now or be priced out forever”. That would make my weekend.
Oh, and one other thing. Especially in FL, but I am sure in other markets as well, NOBODY EVER NEEDS TO BUY A HOME. There are rentals abound, from tiny condos to massive 5M dollars oceanfront McMansions. There is NO SUCH THING AS A DESPERATE BUYER.
There is, however, very much such a thing as a desperate seller……
Yea, good one.
I’m sure he’s told people all kinds of things like:
“Real Estate always goes up.”
“Buy now or be priced out forever”.
Real Estate is your best investment.”
“It’s a great time to BUY or SELL”.
and now,
“Prices are favorable, call a Realtor(tm)”
and my favorite line for suckers,
“You can do this, Suzanne researched it”.
Yea, I’m sure you’ve told people all kinds of crap, except the truth, that prices rapidly surpassing people’s incomes are unsustainable and will fall like a rock when the easy money comes to an end…..which was inevitable.
You are just a moron trying to cash in on a transaction.
Bottom line, you will tell people anything that makes another transaction.. Win or Lose, you get paid.
Really! These real estate people who are urging folks to buy now should be arrested for fraud.
‘Some people have made the statement that the market has already bottomed out,’ Goodkin said. ‘I couldn’t disagree more. We’ve got to get prices down to where true users can afford them.’”
Hear, hear! Will the true users please stand up?
I remember Goodkin from when I lived in South Florida, if memory serves, he’s been around at least since the early 1980s, I think. Fairly well respected as a RE analyst. I’m seeing him widely quoted now on sort of bearish views, although I think his 20% decline is optimistic, but don’t recall seeing him quoted so much during the really bubbly times. Perhaps he’s been more cautious than others and wasn’t a “good read” during the bubble?
Palmetto,
I believe the 20% should be 40-50%, but how long will this take?? Let’s be realistic. The FED is lying to us about the “inflation rate”. It’s more like 10%.
So, let’s say it takes 2 more years of price declines, while everything else continues its inflationary trend.
That would be a 40% cut even though the price is down only 20% nominal.
We’ll see if Benanke pulls the Greenspan market put at the end of the month. I believe him to be an inflationist and will promote Wallstreet crooks by passing around more money. The dollar will tank and prices will escalate rapidly. $4 gas is coming soon.
“So, let’s say it takes 2 more years of price declines, while everything else continues its inflationary trend.”
That’s if there isn’t some even mildly catastrophic event that intervenes. Something’s gonna happen. What, I don’t know, but it is almost inevitable, IMHO. I’m getting a little nervous about this Iran thing and also the Taiwan tensions. We’ve got a trigger happy administration, unfortunately.
We’ve got “trigger happy” enemies, too.
Don’t forget about Turkey threatening to invade Iraq.
Good luck to the bargain hunters. Zillow.com just increased the value of my father’s house by $93,000 for just the past 30 days, placing it now in the million plus category, and I’m assuming this is because some idiot recently bought a townhouse on his block for an extravagant amount of money (about three times its actual worth). On the next block, there is a little house, about a fourth the size of my Dad’s, and with a third of the property, for sale for almost a million dollars.
Most people here in south Tampa clearly are still living in a delusion that their properties are actually worth the prices to which speculators egged on by realtors and enabled by crooked mortgage brokers drove them between 2001 and 2006. Nobody seems to have realized that houses do not double and triple and quadruple in value overnight for no reason whatsoever. Nor do they seem to understand that without Monopoly financing, very few people can afford to throw fortunes away on crap.
We’ll see about the monopoly money at the end of the month when the FED meets again. Another FED rate cut?
Another bailout? This may egg-on more mortgage mania.
I’ve heard lots of folks saying we need to “get this property market going again”. I remain skeptical as to how insane we can really push the bubble. Was the 2005 top the real top, or can we re-inflate the whole thing some more. I have doubts, but unemployment is rising, prices are rising, sales are falling and this is coming into an election year.
Can the feds engineer a bailout, or is it time for the “correction”?
Can the feds engineer a bailout, or is it time for the “correction”?
- Why won’t the Fed release the minutes from the last meeting?
Zillow is a joke.
FL
sfh off 30%
condos off 50%
Villas and townhomes off 40% from spring 05 peak
about right ??????
FL is # 1
“We will get started because we’re Trump.’”
Even Trump can take a dump.
I was in LV on Tuesday night and Wednesday and stayed at the Wynn. It is almost across the street from The Trump Tower - 68 stories of condos one block off the strip. Who the hell wants to live their?
*there
Didn’t you get the memo? It was all those retiring baby boomers who were going to sell their house that they bought for $30K years ago and now have a price of $800K. They were going to take that money and buy 5 preconstruction condos, flip 4 of them and live in the 5th and take their profits and gamble it on the strip.
They ran into a slight problem when they found that there were not enough people who could actually afford to buy their $800K home. Something about how many of the jobs that could let people buy homes being outsourced to third world countries and a general stagnation of income which will not support a lot of $800K homes.
bwaaahaaahaaahaaa! tell that to the people that put down a deposit for Trump Towers in Tampa!
I’m starting to feel a bit jealous of you Floridians - wishing my part of the country would get on with it and tank as fast.
It had to go first, being the “home” of Flipper.
Trick or treat! I’m thinking of dressing up as a Florida condo for Halloween, that oughta scare the beejabers out of everyone.
How about dressing as an alligator?
Maybe you’d get given some of those tiny gingerbread houses or some jelly FB’s.
Don’t be jealous…
Yes, we are seeing the bubble unfold quickly here.. However, and I think that other FL people would agree, I think that FL is without a doubt heading into a depression. So, yes, homes are going to be cheap, but there are not going to be many people left to enjoy these cheap homes.
FL has truly, royally screwed the pooch on this one. And if portability passes (and stands in court) it will be even worse for us.
“I think that FL is without a doubt heading into a depression”
Oh yeah, no doubt, it’s already in recession, except no one is saying it. But here’s a little anecdotal: in the Tampa area, Metropolitan Ministries runs a major food bank for the needy. Been doing it for years, very well run and well respected. Well, folks, the cupboard is pretty much bare and the news stations have been running the story in the hopes that people will contribute. Problem is, more people are in need and fewer are donating, because charity begins at home and there is less disposable income to donate. So it becomes a double whammy.
Now, Metropolitan has more of an urban ministry, around here in semi-rural, the church groups are always giving out food baskets to the migrants and the illegals. I don’t yet have an anecdotal on that one, I will report when I do. There might even be a little drop off in clientele, since many migrants and illegals have moved on to what they consider greener pastures, like the Carolinas. But the donors and volunteers are mostly retired folks who are still holding their own financially.
I’m seeing more begging in the streets in the larger towns of W. Colo.
Lost,
What cities in W Colo. do you see increased begging in? What are the demographics of the beggars?
Can’t answer for the demographics (not sure what you mean), but I’m seeing more street beggars in almost every town above 5,000 that I’ve been in lately (for ex., Grand Junction, Cortez, Glenwood Spgs. even Aspen and Montrose, which used to never have any). They stand at street corners near the most popular shopping places, like WalMart. The beggars I’ve seen in Montrose (and Glenwood Spgs) actually sit by the door to Walmart, where they can unobtrusively ask for handouts.
Some of them are fairly young (mid-20s), but most look like burned out ex-Viet Nam vets. Some are women, but most are men. It’s becoming a problem in G. Junction. There’s a park there (by the museum) that’s a notorious hangout for the homeless and they’ll actually approach your car if you stop for the light. I’m seeing a lot of them in G. Junction. Who knows, it’s always been a problem (for the last 15 years, anyway), but anecdotal evidence seems to say there are a lot more lately. They don’t get my money, but I feel for them, what a miserable existence - working is much more rewarding, IMO, even though I’ve heard some of them make good money begging. They don’t look like FBs.
if portability passes, goodbye south florida. people will run to the hicks, (i mean the hills of florida) ocala and gainesville will become boom towns. then you will really see prices falling in the south and actually prices rise in the north. it will pass because the elephants want to save their butts and this would be a temporary bandage.
“‘It’s not that they don’t want to buy,’ Mark Randall, a director with Wood Partners, said about condo hunters. ‘They’re scared to buy.’”
Why are they scared to buy if they want to buy? Is this an example inner-sheep conflict?
Don’t buy. Crush your inner-sheep.
‘They’re scared to buy.’”
Indeed. Gibbering with fear is more like it. Ah, Halloween in the South. gotta love it.
“They’re scared to buy.”
AKA greed turns to fear. People are learning that the same forces that drove the market higher (buyer psychology, easy credit, etc.) can work just as viciously in the opposite direction.
Anyone who successfully sold during the last 2 years dodged a bullet, whether or not they caught the absolute top.
Similarly, anybody who buys in the first couple of years after the bottom will have bought well, whether or not they catch the absolute bottom. RE bottoms are very rarely V-shaped.
Caveat: If prices in an area get to the point where PITI on a fully amortising loan (including opportunity cost on any deposit) is less than rent, then IMHO anyone wanting to stay in that area for 5 years or more should buy. It will be a reasonable decision regardless of subsequent price movements.
And that is exactly when I will buy. As soon as the full payment (with a reasonable downpaymet) approaches the cost of rent I will start to get interested. We still have a long way to go in FL (although we are getting there quickly).
Home down the street listed (about 2 years ago) for 1.5M dollars. Currently rented for 3,250/mo. Currently reduced to 800K. Still, given the rent/own caclualation, it’s FAR too high.
Assuming the area has not (or was not already) turned into a POS. That’s a concern of mine along with prices.
“John and Marjorie Meyer live next door, and they have watched the bank-seized property fall into disrepair. ‘They have performed no maintenance in years,’ John Meyer said.”
The beauty of risk dispersion.
“Analysts originally expected South Florida’s housing market to improve late this year or next, but now they don’t see a rebound before 2009. ‘The pain here and the depth of the problems are more than anybody anticipated a year and a half ago,’ said Anthony Trella, a home-building consultant in Deerfield Beach.”
The projected time until recovery is stretching farther out into the future. Does anyone still think the recovery will occur by 2008 now?
I have been following Schiller’s chart of the correction as probably a good guess which goes into 2011-2012. This is the mother of all bubbles in house inflation. It requires a more substantial correction.
Who are these so-called “experts”. I think they are fools.
‘The pain here and the depth of the problems are more than anybody anticipated a year and a half ago,’ said Anthony Trella, a home-building consultant in Deerfield Beach.”
I think everyone here expected plenty of deep Joshua Tree pain for Florida
Actually, the fear here in Fla can be felt and even seen on the faces of property owners. Before I settled into the rental, I was out looking for a place. When I told a couple of potential landlords that I was “self employed”, the eyeballs would start bugging out and darting around, a surefire sign of fear. Never mind the money in the bank or the good credit rating. They want you out and about and gainfully employed…by somebody else.
LOL, the car I drive up in doesn’t help me any, I realize that. But hey, let the LLs rent to a couple of broke, psycho SUV driving idiots and that’ll teach them what real fear is.
“Fort Lauderdale-based Levitt Corp. … said Friday it plans to take pretax charges of $160 to $170 million…. The charges are in addition to charges and write-offs of $99 million in prior periods.”
Aren’t these charges suppose to be one-time events and non-recurring like a plant sale? This looks more like mark-to-market.
LOL, haven’t you heard? South Florida is working off a totally different economic model than any of us have ever seen…
Or some such thing.
“‘But it’s like the stock market,’ DeLoach said. ‘You don’t know if you are buying at the bottom. If you need to buy [a home], stop trying to time the market. That’s what I tell people.’”
Didn’t people specuvest in homes because it was unlike the stock market? Homes are tangible they said. Home prices always go up and up unlike stocks. You can live in a home. You can’t live in a stock.
Advising sheeple not to time the market is the biggest scam ever perpetrated on the herd. It’s like saying: Don’t think. Don’t research. Don’t do any homework. Just buy, buy, buy. Dont’ sell. Don’t take profits. Just keep buying day in and day out.
Think. Don’t be sheep.
It’s romper room for adults…………..
Be a “do-bee”, don’t be a “don’t-bee”……….
HAHAHAHAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
David LeLoach, St. Cloud Broker, states “You don’t know when prices have hit bottom….” and follows it up with the usual realtorwhore/broker b.s kind of quote along the lines of, “Now is a good time to buy.” (lol)
One cannot compare property prices to stock market prices. Stock prices are very liquid and can turn on a dime. When a stock does reach bottom, it can turn around very quickly when some Wall Street shill makes a comment and then the stock gets driven by momentum.
Not so with property. In a boom and bust scenario maybe that happens but property has been through it’s latest boom/bust and it usually takes a new generation with stars in their eyes who have not experienced a boom and bust to get involved. That can be many, many years.
Property is not a liquid asset. A buyer cannot pick up the phone and say to his broker, “Buy 5,000 houses at todays price.” Same when a property owner wants to sell. It takes time. Added to that, a property doesn’t cost between $20 and $100 which is average price of many shares.
This is what will happen where property is concerned. We are a looooooong way from the bottom. When most of the “For Sale” signs have gone which will be in several years. I figure around 2010 thru 2012 (optimistic) when prices in most bubble areas have dropped 30% to 50% and in some places more from todays prices. Then property sales will move but very slowly. At a snails pace.
Too many “negatives” have now entered the property market which range from people being scared of taking action (buying) and getting burned and not enough people qualified to buy. Also, a lot of people do not trust the realtorwhore and brokerage business who have NOT helped their case with their “Now is a good time to buy,” b.s when it was a BAD time to buy and where brokers were fast talking suckers into buying property they had no chance of paying for. Also, thousands of FB’s who either cannot buy for 10 years (bankrupt) or so sick of the experience they are not interested.
Bottom line? When this incredible mess, which could well be the biggest boom and most destructive bust the USA has experienced, does bottom out anyone interested in buying has PLENTY of time to decide. Underline the words Plenty Of Time.
As far as realtorwhores and brokers are concerned. Most should look for a new line of work. Realtorwhores especially. Brokers can switch to scamming older people into reverse mortgages, etc, but realtorwhores are going to have a really tough time. Would not surprise me to see a 70% drop out rate in the realtwhore business. Most of those who jumped on the gravy train since 2000 will be especially hard hit.
Excellent post. I have heard this a lot lately “don’t try to time the market”. You made the argument perfectly. And it’s not that I want to buy at the bottom, I just don’t want to buy at the top and that’s where the prices still are in Florida.
Good post. Also that the Bond market slice-and-diced and double margined these ARMs on top of all this fraud.
David DeLoach, broker in St. Cloud. ‘I’ve still got my lights on — I just paid the light bill,’ DeLoach said. ‘We’re just trying to make it through this. We’re not expecting it to last, because there is pent-up demand from buyers. I know that.’”
- Sorry Dave, those ‘pent-up’ buyers are not qualified for todays home loans. Keep the lights on ‘low’.
I starting to look like that those antique coal-oil lamps are going to be used for more than mere decoration!
I was thinking the same thing myself. I picture lots of candles for trendy lighting in 2008, and holes cut throughwalls in strip malls connecting extension cords to the neighboring stores electric sockets to run computers and things.
Most of the people that I know in Real Estate and the Mortgage Business would spend their money as fast as they could get their hands on it to keep up with the Jones’s.
Come tax time, they would have to set-up payment arrangements with the IRS, because they spent the income and didn’t bother to file quarterly estimates throughout the year. April 15th was a shocker every year. Not so much next year. At least not in a positive way.
“‘It’s the slowest market I’ve ever actually worked in,’ said real estate agent Geoffrey Greene.”
so… you admit it’s the first time you’ve had to “actually work” for about 5 years???
The database server was down for a few minutes, should be OK now.
Check out the following solicitation I received from a realtor in Celebration.
She also emailed links to these new construction condos and houses and they all showed orig price and reduced price. Everything was reduced at least $120,000 or more. Highest prices in the $600’s. I emailed her and told her I was a realtor (didn’t tell her I don’t practice anymore) and there’s no way anyone in their right mind would buy in this market. I also told her that when we visited in 2001 we were told the final phase would be completed and sold out by 2005. I asked her why, 2 years later, there were all these condos and houses sitting there. I told her to email me when these properties hit the same square footage prices as in 2001. But also check out the push for Wells Fargo.
Subject: Celebration, FL Buyer Incentives - Limited Time, Limited Properties
To: “Debbie Greenlees”
Hi,
You are receiving this email from me because you have either expressed interest in purchasing property in Celebration, visited Celebration or have contacted me via email requesting information about Celebration and our homes.
I have exciting news for you about some Buyer Incentives that are in place now until December 31, 2007. These incentives pertain only to the few condos, townhomes and single family homes that are left to purchase in the current last residential community of Celebration, named Artisan Park.
The Buyer Incentives include:
PAID Condo Fees - 1 Year ($4,016 Value) - Only pertains if purchasing a condo.
PAID Artisan Club Fees - 1 Year ($1,200 Value)
PAID Closing Costs up to $10,000
SPECIAL FINANCING: Wells Fargo Home Mortgage
Wells Fargo Offers:
* Flex Fixed Option: 1st year 4.5%, 2nd year 5.5% and 3rd year 6.5%. Enjoy temporary low rates and have peace of mind with a fixed rate for the remainder of your loan term.
* Below Market Rate Option: Use the incentives to pay points to buy a well-below-market interest rate PERMANENTLY.
* Incentives to Pay Closing Costs Option: Use incentives to pay your closing costs and have money left over to buy down your interest rate.
I have attached files showing the current available properties that these incentives pertain to. I am happy to provide any floor plans that you would like for review.
This is the final Builder (St. Joe) stage of sales. All properties are constructed and can be closed in 30 days. All properties require 5% at contract signing, with the remainder due at closing. This is a great opportunity to get a greatly reduced price and some great incentives as well.
Please let me know if you have any questions and if I can provide any additional information about any of these properties for you.
I look forward to hearing from you. As you can see from the lists, the supply is limited for new construction. It is a great time to buy with prices down!
Thank you,
Debbie Greenlees
FrontGate Realty
660 Celebration Avenue #110