Everyone’s Waiting For Prices To Drop Further In California
The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “The dead lawns and for-sale signs are stark evidence of the Bay Area’s foreclosure crisis, and Antioch’s Meadow Creek Estates is at the epicenter of it. With 271 homes, or more than 2 percent of all residences, already foreclosed upon in the first eight months of this year, the 94531 ZIP code has the Bay Area’s highest foreclosure rate, according to a Chronicle analysis.”
“The foreclosure rate here is seven times that of the region as a whole and nearly 1,000 percent higher than it was a year ago. This small area of Antioch, with 23 foreclosures for every 1,000 homes, has twice the bank repossession rate of greater Stockton, an area often cited as the No. 1 foreclosure spot in California.”
“Burgeoning growth caused prices to rise rapidly. Houses on Catanzaro sold for about $150,000 when they were new in 1994. Two years ago, they went for more than $500,000.”
“Now prices have fallen precipitously. Catanzaro homes today are selling in the low $400,000s, if they sell at all.”
“Trinette Nastor of Fairfield owned two of the Catanzaro foreclosures. She said she bought the three-bedroom homes, located across the street from each other, for $530,000 each in late 2005, as an investment in a partnership with two acquaintances. She thinks the acquaintances got her into the deal because she owns her own business in Vacaville, so she had the credit to qualify for mortgages.”
“‘The plan was we were going to fix them up a little bit, flip them and then go from there,’ she said. Instead, ‘As soon as the market went for a loop, they were worth $470,000.’”
“Nastor said she made a couple of monthly payments of about $3,000 each, but then couldn’t keep up. ‘I kept getting paperwork (from the banks),’ she said. ‘I was like, ‘Look, we’ve got to do something about this.’ That’s when her partners disappeared, she said.”
“‘I went crazy, I didn’t know what to do,’ she said. ‘I had to let (the houses) go because they would bring my business and my health down.’”
“She stopped making payments and the lenders foreclosed on both homes in January.”
The Orange County Register. “A recovery in the housing market may start taking hold sometime in the coming two to three years, depending on whom you asked at the California Association of Realtors convention that ended Saturday.”
“Richard Green, the Oliver T. Carr Jr. Chair of Real Estate & Finance at George Washington University, cautioned real estate agents that they may need to wait longer. ‘Just try to hang on for three years,’ he said.”
“‘Realtors like good news,’ Green said. ‘For the short run, I don’t have a lot.’”
“‘It’s going to get better, but very slowly,’ said Maria Natalia Lopez, an agent in Wilmington. ‘Everyone’s waiting for prices to drop further.’”
“Easy financing, resulting in a runup in home prices, started the slump, Green said, and as a result, home sales are almost half the level of two years ago. Six of the 10 metro areas with the nation’s highest default rates are in California.”
“‘There are no economic models,’ he said. ‘We’ve never seen anything exactly like this before.’”
“Dave Emerson, an agent in Los Alamitos, said he feels like he’s on the shore watching a ‘tsunami of foreclosures’ coming. ‘I’m just scared to death,’ Emerson said. ‘Maybe I’m a victim of the media.’”
The Union Tribune. “In recent weeks, the mortgage industry has put out the word that it is shocked, simply shocked at the amount of fraud involved in home loans. ‘People are deceiving lenders at an alarming rate,’ said Jonathan Kempner, who heads the Mortgage Bankers Association.”
“But how innocent is the mortgage industry? Were lenders, as Kempner said, ‘the principal victims of mortgage fraud’? Or did the industry, with its lax standards, create an atmosphere in which fraud became pervasive? And did some mortgage firms aid and abet the fraud?”
“Bob Simpson, whose company investigates mortgage insurance claims, said he has found that many mortgage brokers encouraged borrowers to overstate their income to qualify for high-priced mortgages.”
“Simpson tells of how a manicurist gained a jumbo mortgage using a loan application that said she was making $90,000 per year. An exterminator gained a loan by saying he made $132,000. A rental car worker was listed as making $144,000.”
“Simpson can’t believe the mortgage firms were unaware of what was going on. ‘How can you look at a loan application saying that some part-time manicurist working out of her home is making $7,500 a month without being a little suspicious?’ he asked.”
“Mark Miller, a bankruptcy attorney in San Diego, said that in one bankruptcy case he’s handling, the borrowers never saw any of the actual loan documents for their home and were not present when the documents were stamped by a notary public.”
“‘The mortgage guy told them, ‘Don’t worry. I’ve got a notary I deal with,’ who happened to be a relative,’ Miller said.”
“The borrowers thought they were signing up for a fixed-rate loan at 7 percent interest. Instead they got an adjustable-rate loan that has since ballooned to 14 percent, driving them into bankruptcy.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “As Friday approached, Otto Chacon was scrambling for a solution. The first-time homebuyer was nervously anticipating Oct. 12, the day when the interest rate on his home loan was scheduled to rise, bumping his monthly payments from $2,200 a month to nearly $3,000.”
“Chacon, an electrical construction worker, knows his family will be unable to afford the new payment. He repeatedly called his out-of-state lender, NovaStar, but says he never heard back. He tried to refinance with two other mortgage companies, but cannot pay thousands in upfront fees.”
“‘It’s all a mess,’ Chacon said. ‘I wanted to move into a house and I guess I went for it.’”
“As of June, an estimated 42,560 subprime loans, the majority of which are adjustable, were active in Kern County, according to First American LoanPerformance,. Those loans accounted for 27 percent of all Kern mortgages, according to LoanPerformance.”
“Housing experts are bracing for the first quarter of 2008, when many adjustable rate mortgages will reset for the first time, said Richard Castro, a spokesman for the Anaheim office of a national housing nonprofit.”
“‘The state is going to be at the epicenter of the foreclosure crisis in 2008,’ Castro said.”
“In September, one in 3.8 home sale listings were for ‘distressed’ properties, the majority bank repossessions or short sales where a lender forgives a portion of the loan to avoid foreclosure, according to a report by Bakersfield appraiser Gary Crabtree.”
“Those distressed homes are selling for 10.7 percent less than regular listings, putting downward pressure on prices, the report states.”
“Chacon moved his family from Los Angeles to Bakersfield in 2004, lured by the city’s relatively affordable homes. With poor credit, an adjustable rate mortgage seemed like his only chance to become an owner. Chacon and his wife, Rosa, took the plunge and bought their first home for $292,000 in a northeast Bakersfield neighborhood.”
“They like it here and want to stay. But the looming monthly payment increase is weighing heavily on Chacon. ‘I know you’re responsible for your finances, but the way they picture it is, in two years you can refinance and you’ll be OK,’ he said.”
The Mercury News. “Though the prospect of seeing a house similar to the one she and her fiance bought just 10 months ago sell for $180,000 less than they paid made Cindy Jorgensen ‘want to puke,’ her American dream-turned-nightmare had somewhat of a happy ending.”
“Her mother Shannon purchased a four-bedroom, two-bathroom property, the next-to-last one in Saturday’s 34-home auction, in the same Manteca subdivision for $107,000 below the asking price.”
“‘At least we were able to get something good out of it,’ Cindy Jorgensen said. ‘It will be good to have a babysitter close by.’”
“Also in the Pleasanton Hilton ballroom were some of the existing 26 homeowners, curious to see how much of a financial nightmare would be caused by brand-new properties similar to theirs selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars less.”
“‘Words really can’t describe how I feel right now, these results justify our worst fears,’ Paseo West resident Dave Cantrell said.”
“Cantrell, who has become the organizer in the homeowner’s attempt to get some sort of rebate from Anderson Homes, said he lost $270,000 due to the disparity between his home and a similar one that sold Saturday.”
“‘There’s a false bottom that’s being generated by these fire sales, and it’s going to take years for us to recover,’ he said.”
“‘My impression is that they were mostly families,’ said Craig Barton, chief financial officer of Anderson Homes.”
“Cantrell agreed, saying: ‘That may be the only good news that came out of this. I’m looking forward to having good neighbors, just not at a quarter of a million dollars less.’”
“Overall, the homes went for about 32 percent below the original asking price. The minimum bids had been set about 40 percent below asking price.”
“For Cindy Jorgensen, who moved from a condominium in Dublin that she’s still trying to sell, the worry is about what impact Saturday’s auction might have when applying for future home loans. ‘Will we get the price we paid for it, or will we get the bottomed-out price,’ she said. ‘It’s just been frustrating.’”
Antioch, brave roaming city…
S.P.Q.A.
“The foreclosure rate here is seven times that of the region as a whole and nearly 1,000 percent higher than it was a year ago. This small area of Antioch, with 23 foreclosures for every 1,000 homes, has twice the bank repossession rate of greater Stockton, an area often cited as the No. 1 foreclosure spot in California.”
Home of “The Holy Hand Grenade”…….
Three shalt thou not count, except if it be on the way to four…
“And the Lord did grin”
“‘There’s a false bottom that’s being generated by these fire sales, and it’s going to take years for us to recover,’ he said.”
I can’t wait for the real bottom!!!!!
A false bottom has always been a secret hiding spot in a suitcase, or container…
In my lifetime.
Did definitions change, when I wasn’t looking?
I think that Gwyneth Paltrow wore a false bottom in the movie “Shallow Hal”.
NR
My Joshua tree’s were made for false bottoms!
I must confess that I’ve been seeing references here recently to Joshua trees and I don’t grasp the signficance, despite having once visited that particular national monument.
NR
It was a U2 album or something.
Everytime they mention it I get “Where the streets have no name” stuck in my head.
Not knowing the “inside joke” is really a pain in the ass.
Sorry, a better U2 song might be “Sunday, Bloody Sunday”
LOL
Damn funny, tj & Va, damn funny indeed.
Northern Renter, keep examining the context and you’ll get it……and no, I’m not gonna make it easy for you.
“Bloody Sunday”………now that’s a barrel of chuckles.
Quote of the week, that one. A real rib-tickler.
Funny thing is due to so many failed auctions, the fire sales will continue for a long time.
Got popcorn?
Neil
There’s no false bottom. It’s called true market value…at least for this week.
Mr Cantrell……you have lost both your mind…….and your ‘bottom’!
“‘There’s a false bottom that’s being generated by these fire sales, and it’s going to take years for us to recover,’ he said.”
More like there was a “false top.”
In a market with downward momentum, that “false bottom” would now be the new top, no?
Why would anyone pay **more** than the last sale in a down market?
Silly FBs!!!
“false bottom” implies it will soon drop further, not that it is unnaturally low. guy doesn’t even make any sense.
Of course your definition (the correct one) of a “false bottom” is not how this FB defines it — but your point does make it even funnier!
Did amyone read the RE article in the L.A. Times about the housing crisis in the RE Section titled “Stuck in a Glut”. The RE industry is blaming the lower prices on the new construction industry and never touches on the fact that over priced homes are the issue.
I thought it was the newspapers’ fault:
http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20060622_sicklyrevenues.htm
With all the free homes guides available in every area with thousands of houses listed, why would anyone even look at a newspaper classified? After the internet, I’d say homes guides would rank 2nd.
which is why you all should make sure you buy the very last issue of your favorite fishwrap.
It will be a collectors item.
The Realty Times editor Blanche Elvan and the agents she quote are in a state of delusion, even parnoia. The newpapers are after them because the newspaper are reporting some facts about the market? Perhaps this is the begining of the conspiracy theory of end of the great housing boom.
I’ve heard two big conspiracies from Realtors over and over again: (1) the media is out to get them; and (2) Alan Greenspan screwed Real Estate when he decided to rate overnight rates. There are thousands and thousands of Realtors out there who really believe the Greenspan should have kept rates BELOW inflation indefinitely. And the irony is that they don’t even realize what a windfall he gave them by lowering rates to 1% in 2003 (and keeping them there for what seemed like forever).
Realtors: the gossipy students who got through high school by being friendly without actually learning anything. NOT the sharpest tools in the shed.
No it’s ALQaeda’s fault….come on!
“Richard Green, the Oliver T. Carr Jr. Chair of Real Estate & Finance at George Washington University, cautioned real estate agents that they may need to wait longer. ‘Just try to hang on for three years,’ he said.”
Seems like just yesterday when a bottom was forecast for late 2007.
That’s what I was thinking. I have found it interesting that the projections have become further and further into the future as time goes by. When you consider the fact that many of the people giving projections are cheerleaders, the situation looks gloomy at best.
On another note: I saw that Warren Buffett expressed concerns that Brazil is now propping up our government finances by purchasing treasuries. When Brazil becomes the strong financial country relative to us, the party is over. Link is below:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21293803/site/14081545
“When Brazil becomes the strong financial country relative to us, the party is over.”
Buy yourself some of Brazil’s sovereign debt (yielding 10% to maturity) and have yourself a party with the coupons. Brazilian currency certainly holding its own against USD as well: now worth about 56c, versus high 40’s this time last year.
this is also called “buying dollars on the open” market, with so many treasuries floating around in the global economy, China, Japan, and The United Kingdom are fairly strong in the treasury market.
‘Just try to hang on for three years,’
Three years with a very reduced paycheck (if any). I know quite a few people in the REIC. All of the experienced hands talk about going “two years without a paycheck” as if its just conventional wisdom for the industry. I think quite a few newbies are about to find out why it is conventional wisdom for the industry.
This is getting better and better.
Got popcorn?
Neil
‘Just try to hang on for three years,’ he said.”
-HeeHee. That really fits with SoCal. JoeJuanSixpack seem to base their life on the media’s fall / spring TV programing of eternal hope for success. It’s like a horse race bettor, I lost this race but I know that I will win the next race with a long shot.
‘If I just make it through the next 3 years I will be fine!’
I’d love to have a chance to buy again safely before three years are over, but I have various acquaintances whose ARM resets are at least three years away. Ergo, trouble will still abound.
Oh, PB. I know you’re sleeping soundly now (as bears are wont to do at this time of night), but I feel compelled to correct your memory. Don’t you know the bottom was first identified in 2005? I guess we’re just nearing it’s crack right now.
nice bottoms.. the only where you can find a nice bottom is at the beach.. san diego has some of the nicest bottoms in the land..
think you seen a bottom let me know.. photo’s will help.
You’ll be wanting to visit Pacific Beach in that case.
Is that the beach near the university. Don’t even remember where I was surfing with friends from that area years ago but, wow!
Taco Surf burros are the best.
rockies burgers in crown point.. nothing beats it.. when every I fly to or from sd.. rockies is the best
Black’s Beach??
~Misstrial
LOL!
And go to Kono’s for breakfast. But get there a bit before 7 to avoid the lineup. There’s a nice little coffee shop just 1 or 2 doors down.
NR
“Dave Emerson, an agent in Los Alamitos, said he feels like he’s on the shore watching a ‘tsunami of foreclosures’ coming. ‘I’m just scared to death,’ Emerson said. ‘Maybe I’m a victim of the media.’”
Absolutely! It was all the media’s fault that unprecedented numbers of U.S. households recently bought homes they cannot afford.
“Dave Emerson, an agent in Los Alamitos, said he feels like he’s on the shore watching a ‘tsunami of foreclosures’ coming. ‘I’m just scared to death,’ Emerson said. ‘Maybe I’m a victim of the media.’”
I’M a victim of the media! I’m a victim of SO-CIETY!! Look at me here, all victimized and beaten-down! I can barely hold my head up high enough to see over the steering wheel of my Escalade! Somebody better do something and FAST or I’ll end up like all of the FBs I’ve put into overpriced McMansions the last few years! Sell now or be priced-in forever!!
” Look at me here, all victimized and beaten-down!”
Now I have coffee all over the screen!!
Come and see the violence inherent in the system. Help! Help! I’m being repressed!
Bloody FB!
Oh, what a giveaway! Did you hear that? Did you hear that, eh? That’s what I’m on about! Did you see him repressing me? You saw him, Didn’t you?
Sometimes I wonder if English Majors two hundred years from now will be studying “The Collected Writings of M. Python”
Interesting how there isn’t more outrage about the silence of the main stream media and business news outlets during the housing boom . The main stream news media was cheerleading real estate as if higher prices and lack of affordable housing was a good thing .The whole hidden message was to get in on the bandwagon or be left behind. It wasn’t no child left behind ,it was no FB left behind .
I’ve been watching the newspapers/magazines lately for real estate articles, and have seen nothing but cheerleading dribble. Thank goodness for Ben’s blog. The truth shall set you free…
A victim of my own stupidity. That I can believe!
I still havent figured Escalades and SUV’s out. I am 6′4 and know that other people in my height range can’t fit in these things. Do people thinks its cool that their big car is known as a short people car? Seems like that’s the opposite of what they are intending to show off???
I have noticed that the women who drive these things tend to have uncommonly large axes.
I blame all my troubles on videogames. Most likely some violent videogame told everyone to buy a house.
Antioch? Manteca? Bakersfield? Those places don’t even count as California. This bubble ain’t anywhere near over till it hits somewhere on LAIG’s map, which I admit consists of about 10% of the total land area of CA.
I see slim pickins’ riding something your way, as is I type…
I agree- yes, these reports of places like Bakersfield, Manteca, Antioch are great since they do show insanely large drops in value, but in a way nobody is surprised. They are way too far away from economic centers. I’ve been to Manteca many times. There is NO REASON for prices to be high there as it is too far from the Bay Area to realistically be a bedroom community. The same goes for Bakersfield and Antioch. So far in the Bay Area, as much as I hate to admit it, the prices are still ridiculously high. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that things have just stalled here. Nobody seems to be buying, and nobody is selling. yet the prices still stay as they were, which makes zero sense to me.
About the only place I see houses selling around here are in the heart of Silicon Valley, and even these tend to be TINY little homes with million dollar price tags.
The big question is will the bay area actually drop enough to make a difference? I hope so because people here are so freakin’ obnoxious that it would seem only too good for them to experience some nice price depreciation to wipe those little grins off their self-righteous faces. Sorry- I’m sort of in a bad mood today.
I think Fremont is too far away from the Bay Area. For some reason folks thought that they MUST own a home, even if it meant spending 4/hours a day in the car
That maybe true, but there are A LOT of people from India working in SV who live in Fremont as there is a large Indian community there. If prices fall in Fremont, this will have an immediate impact on areas tied to it for economic support- such as SV and San Jose. Then you might as well include the next closest city, which would be Hayward, which is next to Oakland, then Alameda….
The way I see it, the slowdown will be a reverse implosion. It started in the core, and will cool from the outer edges on in, with SV and SF likely being last.
SV and SF have already started to fall. SF was down 4% y-o-y a couple months ago according to Case-Shiller. San Jose is Silicon Valley, and prices there are down big time. Not many sales, either. Fremont is considered East Bay, although the people who live there mostly commute to San Jose.
My main point is that prices in the “centers” have started to slide too, just not as much as The Bathroom and Lard (yet).
Exactly.
Some time ago, one of the HBB threads asked how we thought the implosion would look through time. Most of us anticipated the outlying areas would be the first hit & that it would roll inward over time.
This credit/housing bust has just begun. It’s certainly possible that we’ll see the downward cycle continue through 2010-2012 (maybe longer, depending on the economic effects).
Keep your powder dry…
Fremont is in the heart of the Bay Area.
I was listening to a PBS interview with the Prime Minister of Qatar who said he expected the price of oil to be $185/barrel “soon.” I wonder what’s going to happen to all these SUV owners traveling 4 hours a day to/from work when gas hits $8/gal. Gas is about $2.60/gal now and I’m already feeling the pinch traveling 10 miles rt in a non-guzzling toyota.
“Gas is about $2.60/gal now and I’m already feeling the pinch traveling 10 miles rt in a non-guzzling toyota”
I’m seeing gas at $2.75-2.89 for regular at stations in the LA/Long Beach Area. This is in Oct during the low point in travel/consumer spending activity. Gas prices are steadily climbing which wil further dampen the economic malaise i’m seeing, what with consumers pinched by rising food, energy prices and the end of MEW. Wal-mart, Target slow, with mostly lower-income folks and teens buying necessitys and cheap stuff. Home depot very slow as well.
This is in Long beach, which is a mostly working class/poor area of few hi-paying jobs and lots of folks/minorities dependent upon Gov’t largesse.
I disagree Fremont is at most an hour from most places in the Bay Area. 880 & 680 + BART make commutes reasonable from San Francisco to Cupertino.
Now Pleasanton is a different story.
An HOUR! It’s OK to waste 2 hours/day of your life (10 hours/week) sitting on your ass in your car?
As far as Pleasanton, the state Supreme Court should force them to change their name. To Unpleasanton. It’s just truth-in-advertising.
Prices *will* drop in Silicon Valley (I have a–paid off–home in Sunnyvale). But there are enough couples making $100K each, that 800K prices (down from $1M in Sunnyvale) may be sustainable. That’s a 20% drop, but probably better than the 50% - 70% you’ll see in the towns 1-2 hours away from the “Bay Area” that people still commuted to.
Personally, I don’t care what my house is worth. It’s paid up, and the weather’s great! If housing everywhere dropped 50% across the board, it wouldn’t make a whit of difference to me. In fact, I’d prefer it! It means I can move across town if I want and not have my property tax double or triple.
Well… I’m not sure if I agree that coupled making 1 and 200k can really stomach an 800k mortgage. Me and my wife make roughly 200k, which as someone who started making $8 an hour, I truly appreciate. Yes- one would assume that 200k a year would provide an easy pad in which to buy a Bay Area home. But if you look at the real costs involved, the Maximum amount we should pay would be around 4-450k. I did the math a few years back. Even then, we would be stretching ourselves financially. At that point you have to wonder if buying anything period is really worth it when you could simply be saving your income and investing in stocks.
Simply put, I am a firm believer that the only thing “selling” homes around here, and yes- even in juicy areas like Silicon Valley- were the loans that enabled people to get into a home. Even people who make *good* dual six-figure incomes.
This is why the math in the Bay Area is so entirely skewed and I believe supported by an ultimate decline of 30-40% across the board simply because the upper 10% of the earning public cannot realistically buy a BA home using conventional 30 year fixed loans and terms.
I think Bay Area is the true second to NYC. And people in NYC pay a lot… and despite bubble up and down… the general market stays the same.
Not true, roundsparrow, NYC, and Manhattan in particular crashed hard in 90-21. Want evidence…google the NYTimes RE section for those years.
With Citi reporting on Monday, and m-lec in play, can layoffs on Wall Street be far behind. I think not.
Even the nytimes is reporting the center of the financial world is shifting to london.
100,000 a year traditionally should only allow you to buy a 400,000 house at most. Just goes to show even with a 20% haircut there is alot more downside to go.
Just to make a quick adjustment: you of course mean “100,000 a year traditionally should only allow you to get a 400,000 mortgage at most.”
Naturally, if you’ve been saving and investing for 10 years and have a 30-50% down payment ready, you can get something significantly more expensive.
Why is it so hard for the media “analysts” to say, “prices will fall until the average income in an area can reasonably afford the average home in the same area?”
I said “couples making 100K *** each ****”. That’s why I think that, in some more desirable parts of the Peninsula, 800K prices are sustainable. Of course, the farther you get from, say, Palo Alto, the harder it will be to sustain them. (Of course, mansions on the hills of Los Altos and large lots in Atherton will always be premium priced.)
reuven, I have to agree with your last comment. My BIL lives in San Jose and would like to move to a nicer neighborhood ( perhaps Campbell). He and his wife have substantial equity ( bought in late ’80’s) but he does not want his taxes to go up. Therefore he stays in his current abode until RETIREMENT ( another 20 years or so) when they can sell, move to another area and take their prop 13 with them. Another means of “artificially ” removing supply ( of sellers who could lower their price substantially and be OK) in the Bay Area.
No worries Jetson, foreclosures in SV are on their way up and they’ll work their magic on lowing prices– In spite of greedy sellers trying to hold firm on thier inflated prices.
Remember when they had the contest for the longest commute to the bay/san jose area? The winner was from Mariposa. He got free lubes/tune ups, sets of tires, and gallons of gas. Remember? Fairfield is like going to the corner store.
Jet, you’re likely not to see this, but I’ve expressed similiar outrage.
WT Frack?
Talkk about plastic! grrr.
Curtsey,
Leigh
“Antioch? Manteca? Bakersfield? Those places don’t even count as California.”
Lainvestorgirl, could there be a more obnoxious statement of the navel gazing on the coast? The central valley is certainly a slice of Cal. And sheesh, I think of a hundred lovely places in California that are immeasurably more pleasant than LA. I do agree with the statement that the implosion must make it to the coast to be through, and it will, though it seems to be taking its sweet time….
I don’t think they count as California in terms of what outsiders think of when they think of California (i.e., L.A., SF, San Diego, Yosemite, Joshua Trees, . . . ). Hey, I’m from Fresno and most Californians I meet only seem to have a vague notion of where it is located.
“‘The mortgage guy told them, ‘Don’t worry. I’ve got a notary I deal with,’ who happened to be a relative,’ Miller said.”
Always nice to have a notary in your pocket. Nice!
“Is that a notary in your pocket, or are you just glad to see me!”
Is that comment by Mae West or Graucho? My grey cells are not working tonight after listening to the Sea Hawk disaster.
Mae West
Missing everywhere in all of the commentary you’ve pieced together Ben, is…
False Bravado
I sense nothing but unadulterated 100% FEAR.
what happened to panic?
Add rapidly growing illiquidity to the pot and you ain’t seen nothing yet. Anecdotally i have been buying and adding to my physical silver positions with sterling silverware and stuff like that at about 90% of the cash price of silver recently as people start to unload their valuables to feed their alligator. Bought a few thousand ozs. over the past month or so and i bought from dealers as i wouldn’t have the heart to offer that kind of money to the poor sellers. What does that one tell you ? It is ugly out there and we haven’t come close to a point of recognition anywhere yet. I am really concerned about the long term safety of cash in banks.
The Union Tribune. “In recent weeks, the mortgage industry has put out the word that it is shocked, simply shocked at the amount of fraud involved in home loans. ‘People are deceiving lenders at an alarming rate,’ said Jonathan Kempner, who heads the Mortgage Bankers Association.”
Shocked I tell ya! Shocked!
Round up the usual suspects!
I think they’re more shocked at their decline in pay.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Exactly. I find it nauseating that they seem to be quite willing to point out the fraud now that they can no longer profit from it.
the two yarns making up the fabric of the bubble were the warp of deception and the weft of greed.
‘we fired the underwriting dept and threw the bank vaults open in ‘04 and we’re just shocked at the amount of fraud, just shocked!’
ler
You guys crack me up!
Flashback to last year:
“Your prepayment fees”
“Thank you”
If i hear this one more time i will slap that moron upside his head, this has got to be the #1 reason for this housing debacle, people just can’t read in America and use a calculator.
============================
“They didn’t tell us there was a prepayment penalty. Now we’ve tried to refinance. We’ve gone to so many places and nobody will give us a loan.”
guess what, az_lender won’t give ‘em a loan either.
My new policy: loans require
(1) 30% down
(2) 9% interest
(3) You’ve been posting on HBB for at least a year
(4) az_lender or her representative will do a drive-by appraisal
The upside is: no points, no fees, no boolsheet. Limited documentation of your income if (1) and (4) above check out. Oh, you don’t like (2) ? Go to WaMu. Or make me an offer I can’t refuse.
LOL….I guess you are planning for a very lean year or two,or treeee.
Can I take a rain check AZ? Maybe I’ll take you up in a couple years
I had a spreadsheet telling me the P&I to the cent before I bought my first house in 2001. Matched it against the preliminary estimate and the closing amortization table.
That didn’t stop me from buying too much house as “an investment”.
Mania was insidious. 40-year-low fixed interest rates were irresistible.
“But how innocent is the mortgage industry? Were lenders, as Kempner said, ‘the principal victims of mortgage fraud’? Or did the industry, with its lax standards, create an atmosphere in which fraud became pervasive? And did some mortgage firms aid and abet the fraud?”
I’m shocked at the fraud by sellers, buyers, mortgage companies, banks, realtors, appraisers and on and on and on. I’m most shocked that this country seems to have very few moral, honest people left. It’s disgusting and alarming at the same time.
Nice to hear that someone else feels like I do. I find the current state of affairs in this country quite sickening.
Also sickening, the complete news black out on this and other aspects of our once great country’s decline (including the destruction of our currency, the stealth bailout of irresponsible lenders). Cable channels give you nothing but Flip that House, news on Paris Hilton’s latest makeover, etc. Even CNN is mostly Nancy Grace spending hours handwringing over some criminal, or Larry King fluff interviews. All the stations are controlled by big corporations that bend over backward to please the government or their sponsors. Without boards like this, these topics would be totally unknown to the public. And I’d guess only the most educated or most interested few even bother to spend time online looking at anything other than pinup models and football scores.
I’d rather stuff fresh vomit in my ears than subject myself to the shrill platitudes of Nancy Grace.
She is bile personified.
“Cable channels give you nothing but Flip that House, news on Paris Hilton’s latest makeover, etc. Even CNN is mostly Nancy Grace spending hours handwringing over some criminal, or Larry King fluff interviews”
I have already cancelled Charter basic expanded and am just going with basic. I too am disgusted with the lowest dominater level of the boob tube: the only drawback is i will miss the expanded sports channels such as ESPN and fox 52-53 as i do like watching fall football and basketball. No Matter-I will not pay the new higher rates imposed by charter starting Nov. They now want $54.00 a month. For What? Garbage programming which is what 95% of TV is!
Will expand my Computer capabilties into a true multi-media center as soon as i get up the gumption to buy that Dell inspiron 531. Then i can truly get rid of the Boob tube forever.
Ditto BanteringBear and Ghostwriter. If management wasn’t keeping a watch on commissioned salespeople it was because they were condoning hanky panky with the liar loans and inflated appraisals . All parties in the chain figured real estate going up would hide all sins ,in fact they were planning on getting a few refinances out of the people/borrowers they set up to fall .
But it can be quite profitable … apparently.
All lies and cheats , the new Americans.
Not all of us…there is a glimmer of hope : )
Curtsey,
Leigh
Hey price drops are already here. Ziprealty has whole bunch of 600k houses reduced by 100k here in lovely costa mesa. And still not selling… Bwahahahaha… also OC Register price tracker is back up, with median down by like 39% in 92627, and sales off by 40% compared to last year or something ridiculous. Bubble poo-pooers from year or 2 ago at work this morning actually somewhat concerned now, hmmmm…
another couple hundred K off and i might be interested. Or not. I got new 25yr old hottie roommate in rental (to replace angry wife) so my rent is down to let’s seee… 800 bucks.
“another couple hundred K off and i might be interested. Or not. I got new 25yr old hottie roommate in rental (to replace angry wife) so my rent is down to let’s seee… 800 bucks.”
way to go
How would you like to be Cantrell’s new neighbor? I would have to practice maintaining a straight face in front of the mirror for, oh, the next five years or so.
“How would you like to be Cantrell’s new neighbor? I would have to practice maintaining a straight face in front of the mirror for, oh, the next five years or so.”
Be careful what you wish for. Someone might move in a year after you do who’d have to practice maintaining a straight face when encountering you!
Ya’ll see this?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/10/buy-a-miami-con.html
ok - so 1900 already fell for this scam?
i need to move to a deserted island and talk to a soccer ball
now i’ve heard everything
Or…”I was going to buy a share, but I’ve already bought a square inch of the Moon…”
Ok…is that Casey coming up with yet another scheme?
BayQT~
Printing out and mailing the certificates sounds like too much work for Casey. Maybe if he still had Galina to do his bidding, but on his own? I just don’t see it.
That article got me thinking . Maybe the government can hold a housing lottery once a day for a house for the price of a one dollar ticket .People like to gamble and they like houses ,so maybe ….but they would only get rid of 365 houses in one year if they held a lottery every day .
Sort of like selling pixels for a dollar apiece.
Dave Emerson, an agent in Los Alamitos, said he feels like he’s on the shore watching a ‘tsunami of foreclosures’ coming. ‘I’m just scared to death,’ Emerson said. ‘Maybe I’m a victim of the media.’”
- Son, you sure are a ‘victim of the media’ … you swallowed a lie that the market would only go up and now you swallowed the truth.
Don’t worry, the ghost media is reporting that Tupac is going to record a new rap record for the upcoming ‘monster sales.’
“Antioch’s population mushroomed from 43,000 in 1980 to nearly 100,000 two decades later, as it became a magnet for first-time home buyers looking for affordability, and families seeking alternatives to the inner city. Today it is the second-largest city in Contra Costa County after Concord.
Driving through the area, one sees block after block of nearly indistinguishable earth-toned homes, punctuated by strip malls and schools.
That burgeoning growth caused prices to rise rapidly. Houses on Catanzaro sold for about $150,000 when they were new in 1994. Two years ago, they went for more than $500,000. ”
I know a little bit about the Antioch prices as I was looking out there in 1997, 1998. At that time there were a few new developments and the one I was checking out had paired homes (aka, large, 2 story duplexes) selling for $114,000 to $117,000. I lived in El Sobrante at the time and it was a 30 minute drive on a Saturday/Sunday to see the models. I began to think about the weekday commute to work in Emeryville and thought “oh, HELL naw!” LOL!! Since then I see the growth has been outlandish as well as the property pricing. I would NOT spend more than $200,000 out there…..and that’s pushing it.
BayQT~
Yep, spent quite some time doing research for work around Antioch, Brentwood and Oakley in Nov 2005. Cheap was $350 K for approx 2000 sq ft on a small lot, prop tax is $300 mo and HOA was $175, A Month!
Bought near Austin for 1/3 in Aug 2006. Pay the same annual prop taxes. Elec is about the same monthly except I live in a place twice as big in CA. PG&E has CA by the short ones.
By the way, don’t come to TX, it is hot and humid. Move to AZ or NM instead, climate is more like CA. TX is flat and ugly, no mountains. People there are much nicer in the southwest, too. Texans are snobs and drive like cowboys. Pls stay away.
Wink wink…toooooooo funny!!!
Best,
Leigh
The weather in AZ and NM is absolutely NOTHING like the weather in CA. That’s just something that all those desert-dwelling rejects convince themeselves of. Right along the lines of “every one is talented in some way”.
Friend from Palo Alto has a son-in-law who’s a contractor in the Bay Area, builds for the “billionaires,” according to her. Used to be he’d have 20 to 30 jobs to bid on at a time, but now it’s down to a couple. He and his wife live the life of Riley, spend over 10k a month on non-necessities. Told my friend she might wanna get prepared to help them survive. She didn’t like hearing that, but sees the writing on the wall. San Fran isn’t really all that different, I suspect.
I hope that’s not universal - my brother in law does tile work there (sole practicioner) - They don’t spend quite responsibly, but at least they do bring in income (and want to buy a place in the BA).
Just wait for the Blood Bath in SF South Bay to start…
Look at the Silly cities with million dollar forclosures…
http://realestate.yahoo.com/California/Palo_Alto/Homes_for_sale/result.html;_ylt=Ai0OBFP0zoUnTFH4A0OrgxekF7kF?typeBak=realestate&p=palo+alto%2C+CA&type=foreclosure&search=Search&priceLow=&priceHigh=&bedroomLow=&bathroomLow=
Saratoga.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/California/Saratoga/Homes_for_sale/result.html;_ylt=Ai0OBFP0zoUnTFH4A0OrgxfnMrQs?typeBak=realestate&p=Saratoga%2C+CA&type=foreclosure&search=Search&priceLow=&priceHigh=&bedroomLow=&bathroomLow=
How do you go from sold 2-3 years ago to forclosures…
Sounds like Dave was drinking the Kool-aid and now has more than a few flips to unload..
Just drove from my crib in Burbank to Ralphs in North Hollywood. Saw a ton of condos/SFH on sale board. lol !! No one in the driveway though …
The SF Chronicle’s article this morning on foreclosures was the lead article on the front page of the Sunday paper, and the headline was in huge black letters.
Finally, finally, the paper is starting to put this on the front page. Most of the bad news about the local housing market has been burried in the Business section.
There were plenty of boom articles that made it to the front page, so it’s nice to see the bust making it front and center as well.
Hmmm, the only real estate news I’ve seen on the front page is little stickers announcing home auction, a new Lexus with purchase or $1 down and no closing costs. In the real estate section, you can look up your zip code and see how much your home is worth (median price in my neighborhood is up 15% from 2006 according to the chart with 23 sales in the last month). Rah, rah, zip boom bah!
“Dave Emerson, an agent in Los Alamitos, said he feels like he’s on the shore watching a ‘tsunami of foreclosures’ coming. ‘I’m just scared to death,’ Emerson said. ‘Maybe I’m a victim of the media.’”
No Emerson, That is just common sense…Dont be scared…I know you havent seen it before, but it is ok…Just sit down and relax…It wont hurt you.
He should have tried passing this to a California realtor.
http://www.wpxi.com/news/14301006/detail.html?rss=burg&psp=news
How many jails do we need?
People are stupid..Good night Irene!
Ya just can’t make this stuff up!
Thank you for the…er…Jeesh!
Best,
Leigh
If former realtors got jobs as prison guards to guard the other half, would escapes go up (amongst the other prisoners due to disgust) or down (due to expanded amounts of koolaide in the diet)?
“Simpson tells of how a manicurist gained a jumbo mortgage using a loan application that said she was making $90,000 per year. An exterminator gained a loan by saying he made $132,000. A rental car worker was listed as making $144,000.”
My wife & I have been looking to buy a home here in Southern CA for over 5 years now. When the POS homes in our local area -which were originally priced at around $300K 5/6 years ago- reached $650/700K YET WERE STILL SELLING we were bewildered; “Who’s buying these homes”, we wondered. “Who can afford these prices”, we asked ourselves.
NOW we know; it was FRAUDSTERS aided by fraudster lenders, that’s who!.
Let all these people eat shit now.
NOW we know; it was FRAUDSTERS aided by fraudster lenders, that’s who!.
And now they want our pity. We have quite a few people at work whom have waited 5 years. Their morale (in housing terms) couldn’t go lower. They are leaving to other states. Hence, we must move jobs to other states. It will get interesting soon. The rumors at work point to a December reorganization. However, I expect it to be postponed until February. (That’s the normal pattern.) Note: We’re hiring for long term contracts to foreign governments. So I’m not worried about layoffs!
Got popcorn?
Neil
All too true. Maybe you should consider changing your sign-off to read; “Got Foreign Languages?”.
Anyone recall how the NAR was talking about the new homebuyers with foreign names were the new back backbone of buyers. LOL none qualified for real loans…
“. . . sell for $180,000 less than they paid made Cindy Jorgensen “want to puke,” her American dream-turned-nightmare had somewhat of a happy ending.”
Paul Burgarino (writer for the San Jose Mercury News): Puke, that is a funny word. Can I use that?
“She stopped making payments and the lenders foreclosed on both homes in January.”
Why do journalists like to use the emotionally loaded word “home” in so many cases where it’s clear that no one actually lives in the property? Let’s call it what it is - a speculative property flip gone bad.
Good point. I keep hearing the crying about people losing their “home” when most are speculative purchases. Affordable “homes” will not be available again until all of these flippers have flopped and released the inventory for others.
Exactly. The foreclosure notices should read, “Thank you for playing”.
Commercial RE
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9954087
Bear Stearns subprime funds. Very interesting.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_43/b4055001.htm
An out for some subprime bwrs?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=anxOH4nv1deE
Thanks for the links…good stuff
Ya’ll be sure and read the BSC story. Remember the question was asked why the bankruptcy was filed in the Caymans? There’s your answer.
So many money quotes. I wonder if Deloitte will avoid the fate of Arthur Andersen:
Deloitte’s language was a warning to investors that if the estimates were wrong, they could have substantial losses. It also raised the possibility that the past performance, and hence fees, might have been based on squishy numbers. “It may have been an early warning sign,” says Barry M. Levine, a hedge fund forensic analyst who often serves as an expert witness in securities litigation and who reviewed the Bear Stearns funds’ financial statements for BusinessWeek. “Obviously, Deloitte had misgivings. I’m not saying there was anything wrong, but if there was an overvaluation, it could have had a big impact on the funds’ profitability.” Deloitte says it doesn’t comment on client matters.
and then
Deloitte’s warning came too late to matter to investors turning wary in the spring. The 2006 audited financials for the High-Grade fund didn’t begin arriving in investors’ e-mail until mid-May, just two weeks before Bear Stearns suspended redemptions in the Enhanced fund. Many investors in the fund say they never received a copy.
What drove Cioffi and his team? It may have been the fees. Like most hedge funds, Cioffi’s kept 20% of any profits they generated, plus 2% of the net assets under management. The High-Grade fund had become a fee engine for Bear Stearns Asset Management, accounting for three-quarters of its revenues in 2004 and 2005, according to CDO tracker Derivative Fitch. The deal with Barclays was a way to start a new fund and prime it for returns–and more fees–quickly. And by encouraging the investors in the High-Grade fund to transfer money to the Enhanced fund, Cioffi didn’t have to waste time wooing new customers; he could go to the same ones he’d already won over.
He used 60-1 leverage to buy unmarketable securities!
They’re still at it too. Remember the story posted here on Friday about IBs “transferring” these securities to hedge funds in exchange for a commitment to bid to buy them back at an auction at a later date? This to get them off the books and why? Look at the calendar.
Re the subprime potential out…from the link…
“Part of the underlying problem is that banks and thrift institutions largely ceded the subprime market to the aggressive, unregulated brokers.”
So is Washington Mutual one of those banks who ceded the market, or just another bank who aggressively courted the subprime market.
And pray tell, what about all the Alt-A, and stated (liar loans). Not concerned with the next tsunami coming onshore?
Well, ok.
Perhaps he’d like to discuss the subprime outfits owned by the ibanks, or the warehouse lines provided by Wamu and Wells Fargo, for example, to independent brokers. Would he like to characterize JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank as ‘aggressive and unregulated”? How about one of Buffett’s favorites, M&T, now admitting trouble?
You want a little positive spin for the banks, and as he notes ” a chance to make a buck”? Then stop calling subprime “a mystery”.
It ain’t. Just ask the posters here, or Ben Jones. No mystery, just the facts.
I see townhomes & condos with multiple for sales at the complex entrance. What will happen to prices if 1 or 2 of those forecloses? What will happen to SFH a block away?
Contagion is a killer. If you want to buy anything in a buyers market check out the whole neighborhood.
Fools & greater Fools.
I’m at the point where I’m getting shocked at the stories I’m reading. About the people who are losing their homes, or are about to lose their homes. A woman buys 3 “fixer upper / flips” for $530K each, and proceeds to lose them. Notice the “investors” ; “Acquaintances” or friends. These stories are ludicrous, they are absolutely outrageous. Stupid doesn’t describe these people. HOW could anyone possibly assume that they could get away with such nonsense.
Buying 3 homes, and having them stand there empty, unoccupied. Not generating any income at all. Meanwhile “Miss Stupid” continues to make the mortgage payments.
It’s Darwin’s Law of the Jungle about to apply, and these foolish fools are the first to go.
“Nastor said she made a couple of monthly payments of about $3,000 each, but then couldn’t keep up. ‘I kept getting paperwork (from the banks),’ she said. ‘I was like, ‘Look, we’ve got to do something about this.’ That’s when her partners disappeared, she said.”
Friends? A reminder to pick your friends carefully.
These so called friends should be recruited as realtors.
There is something funny about Nastor . So, she got shafted by the bigger criminals that used her as a straw buyer and than they ran leaving her with the mortgage and the flip that went bad .
I wonder how long Nastor knew these clown partners before she was ready to sign her life away .Why didn’t her creep partners go on the loan also ? It’s interesting how con artists and crooks always have a reason for not doing things the good old fashion way and people buy their bogus excuses .
i dont buy one word of her sob story..
Some “acquaintances” used her credit and skipped out on $1 million of debt.. sounds somewhat reasonable on it’s face assuming she’s a complete fool in all things moneywise..
But she owns a business.
I find it more likely that we see plan B.
“If prices take a dump, we bail out. No skin off anyone’s nose… I’m sick of polishing yuppie nails, have saved a nice nest egg, and am ready to retire anyway.. btw, this conversation never happened.”
I think her “friends” at Staples are going to be raising her company’s credit rate to a default rate of 29.95% once they get a whiff of her credit activities.
Another low ball offer on a multi family, another failure, when do these sellers in my town (Glendale, CA) want to sell their property.
Reading this story seems that theses damn sellers are living in another world.
LowballNick, I live in Burbank and I have started lowballing these sellers ( some just for fun ). Email me if you find something interesting . mnsweeps at yahoo dot com. I emailed a agent who posted an advt for a $479K home in Carson…lol !! Carson !! even my dead body would be scared to go there…
There are ALOT of stupid people living in Glendale…alot of illegal money too. Don’t expect prices to fall when one house has 5 people working in it to support their BMW/Benz/Hummer fetishes too.
Big banks prepping $100B bailout fund
Citigroup and others are working on a plan to support the market for mortgage-backed securities.
October 14 2007: 8:41 PM EDT
NEW YORK (AP) — Citigroup, other banks plan joint fund to buy mortgage-backed debt, bolster credit markets
Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) and other big banks are working on a plan to support the market for mortgage-backed securities and other investments by jointly creating a fund that would buy as much as $100 billion of the debt, according to published reports.
Citigroup CEO Charles Prince.
The banks met three weeks ago at the Treasury Department, which is playing an advisory role, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the situation.
A New York Times report Sunday pegged the fund at about $75 billion. Talks have recently intensified and the plan could be announced as early as Monday, the Journal said.
Behind Citi’s reshuffle, an invincible Prince
The fund is designed to prevent a sharp sell-off in assets such as mortgage-backed securities, which would send their prices crashing. That could force banks, brokerages and hedge funds with similar investments to significantly write down the value of their assets, which, in turn, could further tighten credit markets and hurt the economy.
Besides Citigroup, Bank of America Corp (Charts, Fortune 500). and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (Charts, Fortune 500) are also involved in the talks, the Journal reported Saturday.
A J.P. Morgan spokesman reached Sunday by The Associated Press declined to comment. Messages were left Sunday for Citigroup and Bank of America representatives.
Citigroup has nearly $100 billion in seven affiliated structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, which use their affiliated banks’ strong credit ratings to issue short-term debt at relatively low interest rates, then use the money to buy higher-yielding, riskier assets such as securities tied to mortgages.
Many SIVs recently have had trouble rolling over their short-term debt because of concerns about the quality of their assets. That contributed to the credit market troubles seen this summer.
The Citigroup plan would create a “superconduit” that would issue short-term debt and buy assets currently held by SIVs affiliated with the participating banks.
Big shake-up at Citi
Because the superconduit would be backed by the banks themselves, it would give investors the assurance they need to be willing to buy its short-term debt, or commercial paper. Bank of America and J.P. Morgan don’t have their own SIVs but would earn fees for helping arrange the superconduit, the Journal reported.
The plan would help Citigroup, which is set to report third-quarter earnings Monday. The bank said earlier this month that its third-quarter profit would likely be 60 percent less than a year ago because of losses of more than $3 billion from writing down securities backed by underperforming mortgages and loans tied to corporate buyouts
http://loanworkout.org/2007/10/11/countryfried-loans–kernal-mizulos-original-recipe-for-disaster.aspx#Comment
The media needs to look into the supposed loan modifications and workouts claimed by lenders especially Countrywide. This guy has people posting daily looking for help. As more and more workers get laid off, aren’t we going to see more foreclose?? More foreclosures lead to more listings, lower prices, fewer refis/buyers/loans/business, etc…
How can we put a stop to this?
“Simpson can’t believe the mortgage firms were unaware of what was going on.
Of course they knew what was going on….how stupid do people think they are? They made a killing giving out these loans. They knew EXACTLY WHAT they were doing.
See this outlook from OC broker Gary Watts?
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/15/broker-watts-says-housing-slump-may-end-soon/