We Have Never Had This Situation Before In California
The Record Searchlight reports from California. “Here’s another sign of a stagnant real estate market: Some developers in town are taking their homes off the market and turning them into rentals. Two weeks ago, East Oak Estates in south Redding announced this would be the last weekend some of its homes would be for sale. They were going to start leasing them out.”
“But East Oak developer Karen Margrave said buyers waiting for some colossal closeout sale will be sorely disappointed. She has no plans to sell her homes at below what she paid, nor she says will other builders. So they’re getting into the rental business while waiting it out.”
“Some homes in East Oak Estates already have been reduced as much as $57,000.”
“‘We have sold homes recently, though it’s much slower than we’d like to see. We know prices are going to go back up, and we believe they will start rising again next spring,’ Margrave said in an e-mail.”
“Margrave added that other builders like Palomar Builders Inc. already have moved their inventory into rentals and will hold them until the market turns.”
“Brad Garbutt, who’s been selling real estate in Shasta County for years, said it’s unusual for developers to rent back their homes. ‘I don’t recall any developer on a large scale doing something like that,’ Garbutt of Real Estate Professionals GMAC said. ‘Developers usually can’t do that. They can’t stop everything because the bills keep coming.’”
“Glen Jones of Greater Shasta Homeplaces in Redding agreed that it’s strange to see a builder get into the rental business. ‘I have never seen it before, but we have never had this situation,’ Jones said.”
The San Fernando Valley Business Journal. “Oh what a difference a year makes. One year ago, housing sales were booming. One year later, sales are at their worst in 16 years. Depending on who you talk to, borrowers, Wall Street, banks and the Federal Reserve receive their share of blame.”
“Yet mortgage brokers are the group getting the largest portion of bad press. Many brokers are fighting back, blaming the banks and mortgage companies that package the loans and establish broker fees.”
“‘The bottom line is that banks definitely allowed people to over-leverage themselves, and now they are in a period where they have to correct the market,’ said Bill Knox, senior loan officer at Bristol Home Loans in Sherman Oaks.”
“Knox, whose sales have been 40 percent in subprime loans, said the majority of lenders are conscientious about explaining convoluted loans to clients – even though loan documents average, he said, between 15 and 100 pages.”
“‘You go over the main information,’ Knox said. ‘You try to explain it to them until you are blue in the face.’”
“One of Knox’s clients read a mortgage contract all day, he said. ‘The next day she came in and signed everything. And then a year later, she calls to say she didn’t understand any of it.’”
The Mercury News. “Increasingly, as homeowners fall behind on their loan payments or lack enough equity in their homes to sell them for more than their mortgage balances, they are contacting their mortgage lenders for possible help.”
“In the beginning, his calls were transferred repeatedly and often dropped, he said. With persistence, he reached the lenders’ correct departments and told his story. He and his wife, Grace, were both diagnosed with cancer at different times in the past four years. Both had to quit working during their treatments.”
“‘I believed what they said about calling your bank ahead of time, because they don’t want your house,’ said Chavez, who first called his lenders for help in August. ‘I didn’t get that response at all. They told me they had no programs to deal with that type of thing.’”
“In response to a call Wednesday by NACA for a boycott of Countrywide because, according to the group, the company ‘refuses to restructure loans to what homeowners can afford,’ the lender issued a statement Thursday.”
“Chavez now is back at work in quality control for a tea manufacturer, following about eight months of treatment for lymphoma. His wife was treated for sarcoma for a year and went back to work as a teacher in 2005.”
“Their household income is about $90,000. But they’ve nearly maxed out their $120,000 home equity line of credit, and because they can only afford the minimum payment option on their adjustable-rate loan, the principle balance on their first mortgage is growing rather than shrinking with every payment they make.”
“‘They were nice about it,’ Chavez said of the representatives he eventually spoke with at his lenders. ‘But I mean, it’s still, ‘They don’t have a program for you.’”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “Of the Bay Area’s 236 ZIP codes, 25 are foreclosure hot spots - places where more than eight of every 1,000 homes were repossessed by lenders this year.”
“Even in expensive areas like Marin County the crisis is beginning to be felt. One of the Bay Area’s highest-priced ZIP codes, 94920, in the tony Belvedere/Tiburon area, was home to nine foreclosures - including a $1.3 million ‘Bel-Aire tract home’ with ‘floor-to-ceiling windows … and French doors leading to the pool.’”
“In the Antioch ZIP code of 94531, the median price stood at $452,000 in July and August, according to DataQuick. But that seems to be dropping fast, putting more homeowners in danger of losing their largest asset.”
“Real estate agent Luis Salas has about 10 listings in the Antioch area; eight are short sales, in which the sellers ask the bank to take the properties for less than they owe on the mortgage.”
“In part, Salas and others blame the steep competition for buyers’ attention. Along the line separating Antioch and Brentwood sit winding streets filled with just-finished homes - more than 40 percent of the housing stock there is considered new, according to the Construction Industry Research Board.”
“With so many choices for buyers, builders are offering big price reductions or luxurious upgrades. Why buy a home from a bank or distressed homeowner when a builder will kick in granite countertops or knock off tens of thousands of dollars from the sale price?”
“‘They can afford to give you $100,000 in incentives,’ Salas said. ‘I can’t afford to give you $10,000 in closing costs.’”
“Towns closer to the region’s urban core - Richmond, Oakland and East Palo Alto - also show rising foreclosure rates…Those areas do share some of the other characteristics of the most foreclosure-prone parts of Antioch or Oakley: affordability and large price drops.”
“For the first time since the mid-1990s, some Bay Area counties are reducing property taxes for significant numbers of homeowners, mainly those who bought houses since late 2005 in areas where prices have declined.”
“Most of the reductions were in cities where a lot of subdivisions have been built in the past three years, such as Antioch, Pittsburg, Brentwood, Oakley and San Ramon, says Contra Costa County Assessor Gus Kramer.”
“This is the first time since 1995 that his office has proactively reduced property values.”
“Santa Clara County automatically reduced taxes on about 18,000 properties, compared with 6,000 last year. Most of the reductions were on mid- and lower-price homes and condos in cities with less-than-stellar school districts, says Santa Clara County Assessor Larry Stone.”
“San Francisco Assessor Phil Ting says, ‘At this time we haven’t seen any more (property tax) reductions than normal … but I think it’s coming.’”
The Street.com. “Gary Feldstein from Ojai, Calif., has hired auctioneer Sheldon Good & Co. to dispose of the house he bought for about $1.25 million three years ago. His hoped-for take from a sealed-bid auction set for Nov. 7, at least $4 million, says Jamie Somers, the broker in Ojai who sold Feldstein the house but who won’t be getting the listing this time.”
“Somers says he is ’skeptical’ about how well Feldstein’s sale will go, although he says he understands the seller’s need for speed. ‘Even in the upper end, things are not selling quickly,’ he explains. And although Somers acknowledges that Feldstein ‘did quite a number’ in renovating and furnishing the house, ‘he’s asking quite a premium. The upper end is good, but I don’t know if it’s as good as he thinks it is.’ (The lower end, he says, ‘is horrible.’)”
“‘The market is going to determine what the house is worth,’ says Feldstein.”
“Says Feldstein about what’s really underlying his auction decision: ‘I’m a New Yorker,’ he declares. From a timing standpoint, ‘today is okay, but yesterday is always better.’”
The Orange County Register. “Mission Viejo broker/economist Gary Watts, whose home-price insights are widely watching in the local real estate community, conceded Friday that his 2007 housing forecast was wrong, but in his 2008 forecast remains upbeat, predicting that home sales will bounce back.”
“‘The numbers for September and October may be our darkest hour, and then things are going to improve,’ Watts said.”
“Watts didn’t issue a price forecast, saying there’s too much uncertainty…A year ago, Watts forecast a 7% gain in home prices this year. House prices actually were flat through August, and are down 2.2% in the latest weekly figures from DataQuick.”
“Watts said he expected inventory to decline this year (plus) higher summer sales and for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates earlier in the year. And he hadn’t foreseen the subprime mortgage meltdown.”
“His published forecast notes: …In the 1990s, real estate values dropped over 19% in Orange County; in this housing downturn it has been minimal. So what makes this cycle different. The truth lies in the fact that today’s homeowners have more income, more equity and more wealth than in previous cycles.”
The Press Telegram. “The California Association of Realtors annual Expo 2007 ran from Tuesday through Thursday at the Anaheim Convention Center.”
“The housing forecast, delivered on Wednesday by CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young was perhaps the low point of the conference. The state’s median home price will incur the biggest drop in 15 years, as sales slide to their lowest point in more than 20 years, Appleton-Young said.”
“The forecast called for California’s median home price to fall 4 percent to $553,000 in 2008, while sales will fall 9 percent to 334,500 units. The last time sales fell below 2008’s forecast of 334,500 units was in 1985, when the volume reached 328,270 units, according to CAR.”
“Appleton-Young blamed the anticipated price drop on a market weighed down by sluggish sales, the mortgage crisis and because the market is no longer boosted by consumer expectations of rising home prices.”
“‘We really are going through a major adjustment right now to a market that isn’t fueled by those expectations,’ Appleton-Young said.”
“‘We have sold homes recently, though it’s much slower than we’d like to see. We know prices are going to go back up, and we believe they will start rising again next spring,’ Margrave said in an e-mail.”
Let’s see next spring. I wonder if she will eat her words.
Note to Margrave: FBs around the country have been trying this for a year now. Guess what? Rent ain’t gonna cover costs if you overpaid for land/construction by 50%. You should listen to the GMAC’s guys point about the “bills keep coming in.”
But of course, she can’t “give” them away. Better to lead her company into insolvency, I guess…..
Probably already insolvant. My guess is that if she sells for current market, she’ll be in default of loan agreements. She’d face margin calls, and immediate bankruptcy.
Better to keep the houses on books at a “mark-to-model” value to have assets to show the banks when they check her capitalization level.
Sure, she’s going bankrupt. It is all a matter of timing.
Sounds about right. The reason you never hear about this happening is because it’s not economically feasible for a builder to do this. Something fishy indeed.
No no, she meant “next-next” spring. Or “next-next-next” spring. Wait, make that “next-next-next-next-next” spring…
hahahahahaha
You wonder?!! They’re as good as ate! This has to be the most colossal example of stupidity I’ve seen yet. Yeah, you go right ahead, and I’m sure all those big pubicly owned builders will back your play. Hilarious!! What a stupid b*tch!
Call the Whaaaaaaaaambulance while you are at it as this woman is about to be a financial fatality.
http://www.redding.com/news/2007/aug/12/letters-to-the-editor/
Hattip to Lander from the Sac Landing blog for this gem.
HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, look at Gwyns post above about 20% down!!!!
It’s a whynnnnninnng post from Margrave about the mean ugly newspapet not telling people that it’s a “great time to buy”.
Hahahahah, I almost didn’t follow that down to the relevant point. It was well worth finding. Truely hillarious!!!!
Gwyn 1, Margrave -23,714!!!! Gwyn wins!
Stupid b*tch is right!! The righteousness of some of those in the RE business is mind-boggling. This lady has no clue that she does not control the market whatsoever. Indeed, we are at a point now where she is owned not only by her market, but her creditors, who will soon come knocking. Redding got so far ahead of themselves it’s ridiculous. This lady will go bankrupt, guaranteed.
You got what i forgot to mention - Redding! Of all places to hold out for something better (LMAO!)
Redding: hot as hell in the summer, and cold in the winter. Shasta Lake is close, and it used to be a decent place to retire if you didn’t have alot of $, could stand the 100+ temperatures and wanted some land to relax on. No longer the case as it is full of housing speculators and Wal-Marts. Prediction for Redding? Down 50% or more from ‘05 peak.
This has already been done in Costa Mesa back in the early 90’s (Eastside) by one builder who couldn’t sell for what he wanted (off Orange Ave for you locals). So he rented all of the units out. Something like 50 units, 2 & 3 br townhomes w/attached 2-car garage. Ever since he did that the complex has acquired a 2nd-rate reputation among buyers and so he’s become stuck with rentals.
He tried selling each unit off over time, but buyers and lenders would have none of it: buyers did not want to live in a complex that was overwhelmingly populated by renters and lenders refused to make loans because the ratio of homeowners to renters was so high.
~Misstrial
That is spot on…, which is why the large majority of savvy builders will not take this route.
operative word being “savvy”
she’s an employee towing the company line until there is no line left to tow. then she will go home and have a good cry, poor dear.
Ha!
Of course, a couple of years ago, he probably could have sold to the Waterpointe gang and let them tear all the units down for one of their microtracts. Any idea on how those projects are faring these days?
What’s going to change next year for prices to go up? Is median household income going to triple? Are mortgage companies going to introduce 0% financing? Will gamma rays hit the earth and erase our memories of the housing bubble?
Most of us have tin foil hats, so even gamma rays won’t help this situation.
But, gamma rays go through tin-foil (gammas and neutrons go through everything, although they can be attenuated)
attenuated - to reduce in force or degree. to weaken.
But they still get through, though, right?
As Michael J. Fox says in Doc Hollywood:
“Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!”
My hat is made of lead which works much better if not a little on the heavy side.
Seriously, in relation to the original comment, exactly why will prices be going up next year? The only possible thing that will make prices go up are a return of no money down EZ no questions asked financing and I don’t see this happening until the current generation is long and gone and the next comes along and “forgets” the lessons learned by this one.
The overused “perfect storm” is building. Housing prices will collapse along with the rest of our economy. Corporate layoffs, globalization, and mergers and acquisitions will be depressing wages and benefits for years to come. We’ll be lucky to avoid a depression.
This can only be changed by a revolution, peaceful or otherwise.
SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL MILITIA!
Nope. She won’t. ‘Cause they’ll be nasty words.
Oh, and I will add:
I looooove this sort of hubris. King Canute shouting at the waves, all of that. Oh, for a video camera of her face, ‘next spring’. When the prices do not rise.
Here’s her letter to the editor back in August:
“Every day we open the paper, there’s more doom and gloom about the construction and real estate market. Apparently you are of the belief that everyone wants to read that every single day. It’s not new. Maybe the Record Searchlight should fire all its reporters and just go to online news and do a streaming feed from RealtyTrac, thus saving the time of transferring to print. In all seriousness, why doesn’t the Record Searchlight make some effort to report independent facts? What would it hurt, rather than looking at the downside, you highlighted the positive aspects of the current market?”
“For instance, after years of having a seller’s market with uncontrolled appreciation, the tables have turned. It’s a great time to buy property. Interest rates are still at some of the lowest in history. Builders are offering upgrades that used to cost buyers thousands of dollars, and incentives to help with financing. Additionally, the economy is good, and real estate is one of the only assets that cannot be reproduced. If someone buys the property you wanted because you waited too long, it’s your loss.”
“Nobody is asking the Record Searchlight to lie, but to quit being so negative. Maybe if every person involved in any way or that benefits from the construction trades — contractors, suppliers, realtors, people working in the stores, restaurants, etc. — quit buying the Record Searchlight, you would understand that there are two sides to every story. And you don’t always have to choose the most damaging side to your readers to report.”
Karen Margrave
Redding
Link
I see she is of the “now is a great time to buy” cult. Maybe if she stamps her little foot a bit harder sales will increase.
“…Nobody is asking the Record Searchlight to lie…”
Ahhh, but you are… your’re asking for a continuance of the happy talk lie. for how long I ask until you dump the last peg in the yolk.
Another REIC temper tantrum - and in print yet!
Seller Sit Down Strike
“But East Oak developer Karen Margrave said buyers waiting for some colossal closeout sale will be sorely disappointed. She has no plans to sell her homes at below what she paid, nor she says will other builders. So they’re getting into the rental business while waiting it out.”
That’s gotta be from a script for an upcoming Saturday Night Live bit.
“She has no plans to sell her homes at below what she paid”
No builder plans on doing this. But, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. She needs to deal with the reality - prices are down, sell the houses for what she can get. Developers have no experience in renting, and she is going to be shocked to realize all of the expenses involved in being a landlord. Oh, and I’m sure renting those houses for a year or two will really help their resale value - not. What a complete idiot. She deserves what’s coming her way (which, hopefully, will include a few Joshua trees).
Oh, sorry. I said that somewhere else. Didn’t mean to copy.
50% of something is better than 100% of nothing….
A related local anecdote: A house in our tract was a long-time rental. Last year the owner fixed it up and put it on the market at the high end of comps ($639k, in a 1960s tract that went for $180k in 1997). Eventually he rented it out again. Now it’s sitting empty. Maybe he’s waiting until the market turns around so he can get his wishing price. XD
“Two weeks ago, East Oak Estates in south Redding announced this would be the last weekend some of its homes would be for sale. They were going to start leasing them out.”
So rents are expected to go up because…?
Yeah, that oughta be a gas. Anyone think developers will make out in the landlord game? Hey, look at it this way. At least, this will provide time for all the defects to show up and the tenants, of course, will have better leverage for getting them fixed than the actual homeowners would.
NOTHING!
I don’t really know how they calculate rents, but rents for apartments could be going up because people don’t know about condos and homes for rent, yet. also, the new mix of condos and homes may be more expense to rent and thus skewing the rental data.
I’ve been wanting to say this for days.
P.S. Getcha popcorn ready.
It will skew the rental data as families are evicted and move next door into the available rental home.
Muncha buncha! “The event” is unfolding.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Duke, was that an Original 81 memo reference? tee-hee. The Patriots and the other 81 are just TOO good.
Yes, that’s what I’ve been hoping for. The only thing that might have swayed me to buy a house sooner rather than later would have been high rent prices.
But now …
Oh, BTW.
I’ve been hearing stories about huge rent increases in the Bay Area, but I don’t see it. I troll Craigslist regularly, and prices are the same. 1-bedroom apartments in Willow Glen are $1100-1200. 2-bedrooms are $1300-1600. 2-bedroom houses are $1900-$2400.
They’ve been that way for like 2 years.
Big V,
I’ve been looking at Craigslist regulary in San Mateo County and rents have stayed the same. More rentals tied to people who can’t sell. I’ve seen 3 bedrooms go from 1800-3500 per month. As a matter of fact I’ve seen rent reduced.
I can attest to the increase, at least in San Francisco proper. Rents are up 7-15% in most nicer parts of the city since 2006.
That being said, prices rose by like 20% for 3 years straight. A 15% increase in rents still doesn’t put specuvestors in the black…they just bleed cash more slowly.
Hi SFer:
Maybe that’s because it’s the folk who sold at the top of the housing market who are jumping back into the rental market and moving into the nicer areas of SF. I guess it’s hard to go back to the slummy parts once you’ve lived somewhere decent for a while, and all those profits make the rent a lot easier to pay.
In San Jose, there are really just a ton of rentals available. People renting out their condos/houses, and hundreds upon hundreds of condo, apartment, and townhouse units due to be completed within the next 6-24 months.
Eventually, I figure a lot of the new landlords will be foreclosed on (since the rent doesn’t cover the mortgage), and then maybe rents will go up, but by that time, prices should be pretty low. I’m hopeful that the timing will work out perfectly for me, and I’m willing to pay a little more rent every month if I know that house prices are falling enough to make up for it.
I think this will happen in SF as well - likely in 2008, when thousands of new condos in Soma come on the market. Given sales here have fallen off a cliff and prices are finally coming down as well, it’s highly unlikely people will pay $1,000/sq. ft. to live in those. Rents are up here because we haven’t had a dramatic inventory increase…yet.
I’ve seen ASKING rents go up, but I’m not convinced that the result is actual higher rents.
A friend of mine recently recounted a story of how his landlord’s ARM adjusted, and so she tried to raise the rent on them. Good-bye. They moved. It’ll take years to recoup the months of lost rent as she tries to get someone to pay several hundred more than the market rent, if she ever rents it out…
Because of the glut, rents have dropped 10% or more in many areas of NNV.
This could be ploy by FB to get maximum rent. They are really looking under the carpet for money.
I’m here in Livermore and the rents are going down, even in my complex which is in a nice area, they are giving rent reduction and discount incentives to get people to move in. Soon I will be renting a house, because houses are actually renting for less than apts which may have something to do with the rent reductions I see on craigslist. I have heard the theory that during a housing downturn, rents increase because all those families who are not buying or who are being forced from their homes will be seeking a place to rent but this time around, there were so many investors/speculators that they are flooding the rental market because they can’t sell. Apparently, even builders are now doing it … interesting. So keep your eyes open, those of you who rent, be prepared to move because you will find something cheaper in the time to come …
pure nonsense from realtors shills…
rentals in Apts are dirt cheap… same as 10 years ago adjusted for inflation…
Belvedere/Tiburon —
Hey guys this is Uber rich area and to hear foreclosures is a foreshadowing of things to come…
While I don’t have exact data, the Idaho Statesman reported rents are trending slightly upwards because fewer people can afford home prices, so they are choosing to rent with the largest demand being for 3bd/2ba homes. The difference I have noticed, though, is that $1100 a month will get you a big new house with granite and stainless while several years ago, $1100 may have gotten you an 1800 sq ft house built in the eighties.
Being a landlord might be the wake-up call many people need.
They’d have to learn responsibility~
Not necessarily. As a long-time renter of houses and other “non-corporate owned housing”, I can attest to that firsthand.
I don’t have data for Redding but my informal glance at 06′ data for Sac co. has us at overbuilt by about 20k properties. Whether those 20K properties are on the market as for sale or rental makes zero difference.
I can’t imagine Redding is in any better position since wages and job prospects are dismal at best. A collegue once described Redding as the West Va of CA.
“A collegue once described Redding as the West Va of CA.”
LOL! So true. As I stated above, Redding has gotten way ahead of themselves. Now that the loose money is drying up they will discover that they probably have a decade or more worth of housing supply. Get out your banjoes!
The San Fernando Valley Business Journal. “Oh what a difference a year makes. One year ago, housing sales were booming. One year later, sales are at their worst in 16 years. Depending on who you talk to, borrowers, Wall Street, banks and the Federal Reserve receive their share of blame.”
Anecdotally about the Valley, from someone that did time there.
Porn used to be big there, but from what i’ve read, the internet has hurt this growth industry, by a decrease in numbers, financially.
There really was never much there, there.
Plus… it’s a place that will suck the life, right out of you.
“We Have Never Had This Situation Before In California?”
“We” have not studied history. Situation is not identical to the past but lot has happened in California RE.
Jas
“We” are about to repeat history.
Reading is so last decade.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Unfortunately, Neil: I think you are correct. History seems to be lost on the current generations. With the internet we have a treasure trove of info at our fingertips, but the headlines are usually about celebrities or dieting. I was recently talking with a college graduate who did not know who Charles Darwin was. WTF? Of course, this person bought a condo conversion in 2005. It appears they are going to learn about natural selection the hard way.
Being a college graduate means a whole lot less than it used to mean. Now it means you finally got the high school education plus a little more that was the norm in the 40’s and 50’s. Of course, not everone was expected to finish high school in those days nor was it a huge disaster if little Johnny didn’t seem to do well in school. My grandmother made it through life with an 8th grade education and my grandfather got a GED after WWII.
The dumbing down of public education is one of the reasons why, in a time when society actually needs more educated people, the process takes longer and costs more. High school has turned into a babysitting period so that everyone has some place to be until the age of majority. It’s not a wonder why there is no apparent difference between the appearance and workings of inner city schools and prisons.
The pushing off of real standards also somewhat explains education “inflation” - why boomers could attain jobs with masters degrees than now require PHDs and beyond.
I hear you, the sad part too is alot of people go into education cause they want the job security/ have loans to pay off.
The teachers work for the administrators who control their job security, when they should be working for the students. I had a spanish teacher throw me out of her class, cause I was failing. The reason I was failing was that instead of memorizing vocab and learning gramar. we were in an immersion enviroment. so she just got up a pantomimed things to us. Then we listened to rap songs about the names and capitals of centrail and south america. to this day I still remember from her class teetroo ecuador…anyway I a year later i was criticizing her to the cool teacher on campus. (you know the kinda teacher that treats you with respect) he told me “max she knows thats a bad way to teach, and she knows not to teach that way, she doesnt want to teach that way. but as long as she does it that way. no one can accuse her of not doing her job”
But yes we dont allow failure and after getting my four year degree i kinda feel that there is alot of grade inflation going on.
” It’s not a wonder why there is no apparent difference between the appearance and workings of inner city schools and prisons.”
Exhibit A = Tesoro High School, Mission Viejo, CA. How anyone emerges from that architectural abomination without becoming a serial killer is beyond me.
WTF, “Teetroo”? It’s *Quito*, Ecuador.
CA Guy, you’re sooo last century. “Creationism” is now a major.
George decreed it.
Damn straight. SoCal owes its very existence to a real estate bubble, in 1887.
Here in Portland, OR one of the big regional builders (Buena Vista Homes) took a big ad out in yesterday’s paper in the RENTAL section doing the same thing, offering a wide selection of homes in several neighborhoods.
That’s a first in the 13 years I’ve been here.
I thought it was different here in Portland!!!
AND - Lease a home with Buena Vista, and they’ll give you a trip to Hawaii!
http://www.buenavistahomes.com/leasing/
Now how does the tax man calculate that baby? Oy.
Smiles,
Leigh
The same way it calculates the toy you get with the McHappy Meal. Or “free” installation when you buy tires, etc, etc. They’re not “giving” you anything - the amount you pay is for the rent and the trip.
5 beds, 3.5 baths: $1100/month.
3 free nights in Hawaii: $0.00
Having it confirmed that renting makes you an official real estate genius: Priceless.
Excellent post:-)
Anything to be different here in OR
“His published forecast notes: …In the 1990s, real estate values dropped over 19% in Orange County; in this housing downturn it has been minimal. So what makes this cycle different. The truth lies in the fact that today’s homeowners have more income, more equity and more wealth than in previous cycles.”
Is he counting all the recently-vanished six figure incomes in the Orange County subprime lending sector?
why do people even listen to this 15% in the bag clown?
“The truth lies in the fact that today’s homeowners have more income, more equity and more wealth than in previous cycles.”
What Gary forgot to add was, “and more debt than anyone coud possibly imagine.”
Gary Watts I think is delusional, stupid, and a liar. Typical of the breed.
Total BS from Watts. Incomes are flat or declining for the majority of Americans. Anyone who bought since 2005 (2004 in some markets) has little or no equity (negative equity if no down payment). Greater wealth?! - Americans have had an increasingly negative savings rate since about 2000. The last time the savings rate was negative was during the Great Depression.
He’s counting the value of their houses as “wealth”, even if they owe it all to the bank.
I was thinking today about the possiblity of a depression. I’d hate it, but then again, it could be cathartic and very renewing for the country. We could put together a helluva New Deal, with a renewable energy grid, new public transportation systems, infrastructure, new metals based currency system, abolition of the FED, vacating and abandoning all the imperial bases around the world, a ditch built at the border from sea to shining sea, throwing out all those foreign consulates we don’t need, re-asserting the Constitution, gearing up the old factories for new alternative energy vehicles, development demolition programs, etc., etc. Plus, I think it would do wonders for the waistlines of American citizens.
Anyway, I nominate Olympiagal for Secretary of the Interior.
Testify, brotha! This country needs a SERIOUS wake up call like never before. Greenspam talked about froth. Heck, we have spillage 100X the Exxon Valdez in this market, although it is tightening more and more every day. However, we also have too much spillage in terms of crappy junk/trinkets, i.e. gas guzzlers, waistines (as you pointed out), too many who want to retire at 40, poker and stock market playas, gubmint workers, of which I am one, I admit. Anyway, you all get the point.
A good cleansing is what we need. Less McMansions and cheeseburgers and more 2 meals per day of fruit and veggies. Also, some good old fashioned labor and manufacturing, to the tune of 10 hours per day. Enough with the fancy flex schedules and leaving early because I got my work done.
Bottom line, we need a cleansing so we can get back to caring about more than just me, myself, and I. Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating communism, but we are so selfish, as a nation, and will do anything to get our share that we are slowly destroying our country. Sadly, most don’t even realize it. They just keep sleepwalking to oblivion.
Rant off!
Good rant, brothah! I’m as anti-totalitarian as they come, but seeing this country pull together would put a huge smile on my face.
Oh, and it would also be fun to do some asset freezing of the ill gotten gains that were taken out of the pockets of the taxpayers. Oh, the horror on Wall Street. But I’d like to see some Iraq Vets living and recuperating in those Blackwater Mansions.
You first, “brother.”
Palmetto - while I dread the possibility of a depression, I agree that it could be cathartic for America if we did what you envisioned. Unfortunately, I think that any New Deal II put forward by our lousy politicians (Ron Paul and a few others excluded) would just take us closer to socialism than back to our original constitutional roots, thus making the Depression that much worse. It’s just too depressing to think about.
I will, however, second your nomination for Olympiagal for Secretary of the Interior.
“Unfortunately, I think that any New Deal II put forward by our lousy politicians (Ron Paul and a few others excluded) would just take us closer to socialism than back to our original constitutional roots, thus making the Depression that much worse.”
We don’t have to accept the lousy politicians. Actually, Depression ReLoaded can do away with them.
Palmetto et al: the 1950’s are not coming back! ditch across the border - well I guess the Great Lakes are a start! Not going to happen! It is slowing dawning on me the seriousness of the upcoming depression. We have to hang on to what we have as best we can. We need leaders who can tell it like it is - tough times ahead - get ready.
God bless America!
God has blessed America in countless ways, funny thing is most people forgot about that and just wanted more and more. Wonder what God’s thinking now?
“Wonder what God’s thinking now?”
Did I leave the oven on?
Why is there evil if I’m omnipotent?
Why can’t Johnny read?
Why are all these people doing such terrible things in my name?
DrunkBubble
“We could put together a helluva New Deal,…”
Creating a Superfund site = pre-emptive New Deal for big banks?
That’ll be your job, PB.
Ben Jones at Treasury, or HUD. Who do we get for Attorney General?
I’m ready for the AG position, although Gonzo left a pretty bad mess to clean up.
As I said once before, my wife wants Lorena Bobbitt to be Surgeon General.
You got it, Attorney General RudeKarl. Gonzo left a mess, but you could get some of the Gonzales 8 to give you a hand. Especially that Iglesias guy, he’s good.
“As I said once before, my wife wants Lorena Bobbitt to be Surgeon General.”
LOL! That’s a blast from the past.
Karl can be AG. I wanna be Chief Justice. No more billable hours…a man can dream.
Palmetto,
you da man!
spike, you spoke up, so what post do you want? Secretary of State? Who wants Defense?
I’ll round up the Joint Chiefs of Staff and talk them into recalling all troops from everywhere. We will then surround Washington D.C. and politely tell all elected officials, lobbyists, and special interest groups to quietly gather up their shit and go home.
I’m all yours after that, Palmetto, for whatever task you have in mind.
SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL MILITIA!
Is it too late to speak up for Defense? I want Defense. Isn’t part of Defense when you get to incarcerate people and brainwash them? I’ll round up the realtors and mort brokers and make them kiss Ben’s ass.
OK, sweeny, you’ve got Joint Chiefs, Lostie gets Defense.
Well, ok then. If no one else will volunteer, I’ll have to do the job. Treasury it is. First, I will round up all the guilty parties and hang ‘em. Then, we can have a trial, so the public can be clued in on what has been done to the country. (I learned this from Alberto Gonzales).
Then I will round up all the printing presses. Unemployed mortgage brokers will be paid minimum wage to bust em up.
Currency will now be based on the water standard…and the rust belt will rise again. China will be screwed, as they have polluted every bucket, and India will have it’s wing’s clipped as they are persistently short of water. Vegas and the American southwest will return to desert.
Moral hazard will be enshrined, stupid investments will cost you, there will be no bailouts, and, watch for it, the return of market-based capitalism.
“We could put together a helluva New Deal, with a renewable energy grid, new public transportation systems, infrastructure, new metals based currency system, abolition of the FED, vacating and abandoning all the imperial bases around the world, a ditch built at the border from sea to shining sea”
I recently got back from a good long road trip up, down, and across CA mid-section, including kern, King, fresno, tulare, Santa barbara,San Luis Obispo counties and saw a good deal of road work being done. CA just did pass that big bond infrastructure measure, and the road construction was about the only sign of any economic/building activity i saw going thru central CA. Everything else was dead.
I do favor more domestic investment, and even active gov’t involvement, in more energy projects, which would boost the no of hi-paying jobs in CA. Problem is CA is an environmentally unfriendly place to do large scale energy projects-image the howls if there was a proposal to put in energy infrastructures off our precious central coastlines, which i had the opportunity to drive thru on my trip almost up to Big Sur and which are indeed CA jewels.
The deal here is that it is quite feasible to put in place large wells and refineries in a eco-shoreline setting and still have some balance between preserving natural coastal scenery and natural resource extraction. The large Edision San Onofre plant is situated in an ecological preserve, with the state beach right next to it.
The large Huntington beach Valero and Aera energy facilities are somewhat more extrusive and degrading to the HB coastal marsh wetlands but the folks/homeowners/beachgoers have no qualms about it. HB still a quality comminuity with a long clean sandy beach/long bike.running path and balmy 75-80% weather almost year round.
BTW I am also in favor of a new-deal type large scale gov’t-directed project to put up a really strong fence and ditch-even in many places a hi concrete wall such as the great wall of china. This would put many soon to be out of work US Citizens to work, such as was done during the new deal. No illegals nor even recent immigrants need apply-only US Citizens and Contractors used . IF US can waste billions in Iraq then surely the US can also spent biilons building that border fence. Just print more dollars and push more bonds.
What about the wild animals? The fence isn’t ecologically feasible. Besides, with NAFTA and the AMERO, we won’t need a border anymore.
Thanks for the summary of possible outcomes. Your comment is really dead on and very appealing.
Yes, peter did an excellent analysis. Anyway, I see Depression ReLoaded as an opportunity, not necessarily a grim scenario. It really doesn’t have to be.
As Ben said today, these financial “wizards” and corporate jamokes haven’t a clue what they are doing. Seriously. I honestly believe there are many of us on the blog who could do far better jobs in many areas of gov and business than the current crop of jerks.
That I could do a better job than a few of these guys scares the hell out of me.
While I like the “New Deal II” idea of rebuilding the country, even in the absence of a second Great Depression, I’m more concerned that we might end up on a path like Germany/Italy/Japan in the 1930s. If you inflict enough pain, you will get change. However, there’s no guarantee those changes will result in a better future. We could, instead, end up on a road toward totalitarianism. I’d much rather lose a home to foreclosure than end up in a concentration camp or state prison for being a political dissident.
May I be secretary of the posterior?
Sorry if this is a double post!
“We could put together a helluva New Deal, with a renewable energy grid, new public
transportation systems, infrastructure, new metals based currency system, abolition of the FED,
vacating and abandoning all the imperial bases around the world, a ditch built at the border from
sea to shining sea”
I recently got back from a good long road trip up, down, and across CA mid-section, including
kern, King, fresno, tulare, Santa barbara,San Luis Obispo counties and saw a good deal of road
work being done. CA just did pass that big bond infrastructure measure, and the road
construction was about the only sign of any economic/building activity i saw going thru central
CA. Everything else was dead.
I do favor more domestic investment, and even active gov’t involvement, in more energy
projects, which would boost the no of hi-paying jobs in CA. Problem is CA is an
environmentally unfriendly place to do large scale energy projects-image the howls if there was a
proposal to put in energy infrastructures off our precious central coastlines, which i had the
opportunity to drive thru on my trip almost up to Big Sur and which are indeed CA jewels.
The deal here is that it is quite feasible to put in place large wells and refineries in a
eco-shoreline setting and still have some balance between preserving natural coastal scenery and
natural resource extraction. The large Edision San Onofre plant is situated in an ecological
preserve, with the state beach right next to it.
The large Huntington beach Valero and Aera energy facilities are somewhat more extrusive
and degrading to the HB coastal marsh wetlands but the folks/homeowners/beachgoers have no
qualms about it. HB still a quality comminuity with a long clean sandy beach/long bike.running
path and balmy 75-80% weather almost year round.
BTW I am also in favor of a new-deal type large scale gov’t-directed project to put up a really
strong fence and ditch-even in many places a hi concrete wall such as the great wall of china.
This would put many soon to be out of work US Citizens to work, such as was done during the
new deal. No illegals nor even recent immigrants need apply-only US Citizens and Contractors
used . IF US can waste billions in Iraq then surely the US can also spent biilons building that
border fence. Just print more dollars and push more bonds
peter, you get to replace the governator. You’ve got a handle on CA.
Or Homeland Security, peter, you could do that.
“peter, you get to replace the governator. You’ve got a handle on CA.”
Thanks! I voted the Governator into office but Arnie has moved to the left, influenced by the socialist crowd in the Sacto/bay area. He has lost touched with waht ails CA and instead espouses big gov’t socialist giveways such as the Healthy Kids initiative.
What CA needs is more investments by businesses in Building up Energy insfratsructures and investmenst in all types of Energy sources except for gross polluting ones such as coal and rediculous environmental stupdities such as windmills and geothermal. Natural gas, LNG/terminals are clean souces of energy and abundant sources are off the Santa Barbara coast. Better yet a couple more nuclear plants off the central coast, which would be as unobtrusive and eco-friendly as the aforementined Ssn Onofre Plant.
As for autos, road grids,and alternative energy vehicles, a really large scale effort must be put up by a comsortioum of private corporations and Gov’t initiatves to futher research and development of AFFORDABLE Alternative fuel vehicles. Europe has moved toward clean-burning diesels, why not in CA. Electric still too expensive and confined to small coupes such as the prious.
Mass transit is here in LA Metro area but most folks just wiil not use them-preferring to clog the freways commuting to work. Plus riding in an LA metrorail crowded with 95% poor minorities and assorted gang-bangers a bit discomforting.
BTW putting up that fence not so much as issue of homeland security as it is to keep half the population of Mexico/CentAmerica from flooding into CA and filching/robbing the CA Social welfare net and taxpayers.
palmetto,
The Depression has already started, and we are 6 years into it. GDP properly adjusted for the 10+% YOY inflation we have had over that time has been solidly negative (between 7 - 10% NEGATIVE).
The last Depression was survivable b/c the US was largely a rural society (i.e., most people were either on the farm or grew up on one).
Today? How long will the triple-mocha-latte-sipping land beasts and their womb turds I see waddling around last in the fields? Not long.
This time we lose the Republic. Prediction: 10 years from now, the big issue will be ILLEGAL EMMEGRATION.
“The Depression has already started, and we are 6 years into it.”
Dang, badger, I guess ignorance is bliss. Never thought of that. What post do you want in the New Deal ReLoaded?
womb turds! - that is really funny~
If you want to believe government figures, jobs went up as well as wages. Here’s one sample article http://tinyurl.com/38sxll
Just today, I heard on Bloomsburg and CNBC that wages were up for Americans so everything is okay
Yeah, earnings are up 4.1% over the past year, but hasn’t the dollar lost 10% of its value over the same period? I’m also willing to the bet that the increases were mostly enjoyed by upper managers. The rest of us still get to compete with noncitizens and nonresidents, so that “average” number can be a bit specious.
And the 4.1% is still significantly less than the real inflation number anyway, so we’re net negative even if you assumed the increase was balanced rather than going mostly to hedgies.
You wonder?!! They’re as good as ate! This has to be the most colossal example of stupidity I’ve seen yet. Yeah, you go right ahead, and I’m sure all those big pubicly owned builders will back your play. Hilarious!! What a stupid b*tch!
Sorry, this was supposed to go under Amy’s comment.
She’s not necessarily a b@tch because she is stupid. Might be a perfectly nice person who got caught up in the frenzy and really believes what she says. I have plenty of friends who are great people with a huge real estate blind spot. Any schadenfreude on my part is kept fairly well hidden, because they are, after all, friends.
Hmmmmmm……let me think about that……Nah, she’s a stupid b*tch!
tee hee…
“His published forecast notes: …In the 1990s, real estate values dropped over 19% in Orange County; in this housing downturn it has been minimal. So what makes this cycle different. The truth lies in the fact that today’s homeowners have more income, more equity and more wealth than in previous cycles.”
Sounds like a loe to me. Home owners have less income become homes are less affordable. More equity just means it can fall further! Good Job Gary Watts, you are my hero.
loe=lie
loe = load
He knows it’s a lie. Gary’s only giving part of the story. As I just posted above, these folks are buried in debt. Yeah, So Cal is the land of big incomes. But it’s also the land of living big. I can’t tell you how many stories I can relate of folks down there making 15K a month, but needing 18K to stay afloat. Ahh, that So Cal lifestyle……gotta love it!
Spot-on. You know that living outside your means thing? Californians invented it. Makes me happy to see that most of those flipper properties getting foreclosed in the central valley belong to “rich” people in the bay area. Ha!
Big incomes in So Cal…really where? Even the tech and biotech people came back north after a year or so…
Right, Suzy.
I’m from San Diego, and I think it’s probably the best town ever. However, it’s much easier to make a living in Norcal (where I live now), even after subtracting the higher cost of living from your paycheck. Maybe some movie stars and what-not are making a lot of $$ in LA, but that’s about it.
Isn’t it accurate to say that the 90s deflation was due to real income loss due to the downturn in aerospace and associated indistries? Today, much more wealth and income is tied to the housing market as people have used their homes as the oft mentioned ATM. As the market retreats, anyone with the least bit of common sense can see that housing associated wealth and income will also evaporate.
Gary Watts is a freaking MORON! Why this guy continues to get media coverage is beyond me. He disappeared for a while, and I thought he might have hanged himself when his “15% is in the bag” did not materialize. It looks like he has come back to annoy us, hopefully for the last time. Geez, what a dip $hit!
What Senor Watts is failing to mention is that prices have yet to fall because we are still in the early phase of this collapse. Prices are just a little stickier now than they were 10 years ago because stubborn sellers keep their asking prices high until the bank forecloses. Ten years ago, the sellers actually lived in their homes, unlike today’s specuvestors. It’s a typical strawman argument.
“The truth lies in the fact that today’s homeowners have more income, more equity and more wealth than in previous cycles”
Then why are a rising number of people having trouble paying their mortages, keeping their homes, and/or qualifying for new loan refinances and purchases?
Yeah, they’re wealthier, that’s why they can’t come up with a a 3% downpayment 40% of the time.
How is it that he says home prices fell only 19%? I hear 40% commonly batted about… was it a nominal 19% and then another 21% lost to inflation, making Watt’s statement merely misleading, or is the 19% number an outright lie?
“Appleton-Young blamed the anticipated price drop on a market weighed down by sluggish sales, the mortgage crisis and because the market is no longer boosted by consumer expectations of rising home prices.”
“‘We really are going through a major adjustment right now to a market that isn’t fueled by those expectations,’ Appleton-Young said.”
Gollleeeee! She must be one of them thar morphadites, ‘cuz she sure got a set of brass balls fer sayin’ stuff like that, considerin’ the tune she used ter sing.
Well, I guess I maybe shouldn’t have said that. At least she’s changed her tune somewhat, I suppose I should give her points for that, unlike Yun, who’s still cheerleading.
Palmetto,
It should be brass ovaries, not brass balls.
Not if you’re a “morphadite”. Ah, well, it was an ignorant attempt at humor and actually I shouldn’t have flamed her, at least she’s not in cheerleading/denial mode and one thing I’ve learned in life is not to diss folks for their past when they’ve made positive changes in the present.
Bygones, Ms. Appleton-Young.
Except that the current CAR projections are just the latest version of cheerleading. The decline “will” be 4% in prices, 9% in volume. They know they would sound dumb (any more) if they didn’t forecast a decline, so they forecast a very tiny decline that will go nowhere towards correcting the price/rent imbalance.
“Except that the current CAR projections are just the latest version of cheerleading. The decline “will” be 4% in prices, 9% in volume. ”
If CAR projects only a 4% decline in prices for 2008 then you can project at least 10% decline. CAR is a propagandist lying dissemmenator of RE Data worst than THe NAR and Dataquick. They are only projecting 4% to assuage the mass of dumbed down sheeple and their own dumbed down realtor members.
I already see 10-15% drops in many LA Zips per August Data quick, this in mostly poorer inner LA communities which saw the most outrageous fraudulent increases in 2006-early2007. The fraud is getting flushed out of the system, tho the Gov’t is slow investigating LA RE Mortgage fraud and the Local Media(LA times)is abysmal in reporting it.
The J6P revenge. Now takes that Citigroup, J6Ps are taking
money from you for a change.
she’s not any different than before, just a CYA moment. go ahead, flame away
“Jamie Somers, the broker in Ojai…”
Wasn’t that the name of the Bionic Woman and didn’t she live in Ojai? God, did *everybody* leave a solid job behind to jump on the real estate bandwagon???
Word Robzter! I saw that and thought to myself… “She quit her teaching job to go into Real Estate? This time next year, she’ll be back to writing on the chalkboard at super-speed!!”
Next year she’ll be wishing she kept that teaching seniority!
Got popcorn?
Neil
Most of my family works for a school district in Sacramento. Lots of people applying for school positions right now, significantly more than usual. You make about as much as you would working at In&Out. Peanuts.
Somewhere above, someone wrote of educational “inflation,” the need to have more degrees than were needed before. We should be grateful that the nincompoop who quit teaching to go into RE is no longer filling little children’s minds with garbahj.
Used to be a BS was fine to do analog integrated circuit design. Now you can’t even get an interview without an MS, and a lot of designers hold Ph.Ds.
Beat me to it, Robzter! Good call.
Yet mortgage brokers are the group getting the largest portion of bad press….hehe.
I have quite the link to go with that statement!
Cheers,
Leigh
http://blownmortgage.com/2007/10/15/dead-man-walking-wholesale-lending-is-marching-towards-extinction/
–
“Yet mortgage brokers are the group getting the largest portion of bad press. Many brokers are fighting back, blaming the banks and mortgage companies that package the loans and establish broker fees.”
…
“One of Knox’s clients read a mortgage contract all day, he said. ‘The next day she came in and signed everything. And then a year later, she calls to say she didn’t understand any of it.’”
The Blame Game will keep getting bigger and uglier.
Jas
I don’t think he’s got a chance selling it, now that he’s lost the Bionic Woman, as his Realtortrix…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bionic_Woman
I forget what she cost, but the bionic man only cost $6 million.
“Gary Feldstein from Ojai, Calif., has hired auctioneer Sheldon Good & Co. to dispose of the house he bought for about $1.25 million three years ago. His hoped-for take from a sealed-bid auction set for Nov. 7, at least $4 million, says Jamie Somers, the broker in Ojai who sold Feldstein the house but who won’t be getting the listing this time.”
“The housing forecast, delivered on Wednesday by CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young was perhaps the low point of the conference. The state’s median home price will incur the biggest drop in 15 years, as sales slide to their lowest point in more than 20 years, Appleton-Young said.”
…
“‘We really are going through a major adjustment right now to a market that isn’t fueled by those expectations,’ Appleton-Young said.”
What’s fueling expectations at the moment is the C.A.R.’s own forecast that the state’s median home price will incur the biggest drop in 15 years. It only took two years for ‘real estate always goes up’ to give way to this gloomy outlook.
P.S. The C.A.R. must be getting worried about law suits at this point. Otherwise, why would they bother informing prospective clients about the risk of catching falling knives?
I was wondering about that. Clearly, however, Yun and the NAR doesn’t have the same fear.
Another thing to fear, which LAY seems to grasp but Yun and Gary Watts apparently do not, is that if your statements diverge too far from relevant empirical evidence, then you lose all credibility.
Very good point, PB. Some people don’t get it when the game is over.
IMHO it is the CAR/NAR that may be responsible in saying ‘the market will go up next year’. The experts employed by CAR/NAR may say whatever they like since they are exempt because of Bayesian probabilities.
“But when experts turn clairvoyants — especially on the economy — they tend to disagree and add little value. This is due to their lack of flexibility and the unreliability of intuition in unstable environments:
* Tens of thousands of hours honing their art can hamstring experts’ cognitive flexibility; this fixedness leads to deteriorating expert performance as economic problems go from the simple to the complex.
* Their attempts to flourish Occam’s razor by favouring the simplest of a host of explanations fail to consider novel approaches and incorporate the possibility of system change.
* Many experts are prone to hubris, dismissing information that does not tally with what they already believe and readily crediting that which does. The behaviour of economies frequently provides plenty of both.”
Oxford Analytica
Why are economic forecasters so often wrong?
I find it interesting that some are claiming that the problem is that people are fearful of buying, because prices may fall further. It’s stated like buyers have an irrational fear, due to the media attention. Actually buyers waiting are being very rational. We’ve had tremendous over building and prices driven up beyond affordable levels. Now in the face of an impending correction in prices, waiting is the rational thing to do. Add to this the fact that builders are still putting up houses at a pace of 1 million annually, when new household formation is a little over 900,000 per year, we have years of inventory to clear out.
Yes, vmaxer, fear is one of the most rational emotions we have.
Fear is correct. However, that would be fear of taking on debt that I know is 11.5X of my FREAKIN INCOME! Sure, I have no fear of a million doallr debt. I also don’t fear swimming with Great White Sharks and no cage, either. Both are suicide, one is physical and the other is financial, which tragically could lead to the physical. Heck, there is no way in he!! that it will ever get one of these loans paid off and if I do I will never recoup all the interest and principle paid, in addition to the taxes, upkeep, etc.
People are freakin’ nuts when they say things like we are fearful. Sure, but they need to place it in context. Oh well, reporters don’t ask any real questions anyway. Look at sports. The same old BS every time. “How did you feel out there?” “Tell us what it was like or what you were feeling.” Oh, I don’t know. Just once, one of these players should say I was feeling with my hands, don’t you? Or, “How would you feel if a 300 lb. linemen wanted to knock your head off?”
Reporters, the biggest waste of time. Whether or not you agree politcally, the highwater mark in this country of journalism was Watergate. All down hill after that. Even then they had help from an insider, Deep Throat, but you guys get my meaning.
“‘The numbers for September and October may be our darkest hour, and then things are going to improve,’ Watts said.”
Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.
But January and February will be the darkest hour. They usually are every year. So Gary Watts is already wrong in his prediction.
And this “spring bounce” will be the weakest ever. Just look at the inventory.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Where’s my car battery?. Watts needs to be get some voltage because he’s a dimwit.
Hey Neil…. Is this when we get the BIG dead cat bounce?
We must expect one “bear trap” (or call it a dead cat bounce, same concept). When? I’m not sure. But we can expect a fall, a dead cat bounce, and then the real fall. For whatever reasons, that seems to always be part of the pattern.
With San Deigo sales for October 1st through 14th looking really weak per statistics provided on Jim the Realtors’ blog, we could be in for quite the tobaggon ride.
Got popcorn?
Neil
aladinsane for Secretary of Cultural Affairs.
–
“the house he bought for about $1.25 million three years ago. His hoped-for take from a sealed-bid auction set for Nov. 7, at least $4 million”
What a waste of time that auction is going to be.
Jas
Ojai where larry Hagman lives. Strange place like a Rennisance Fair that never ends.
“‘I believed what they said about calling your bank ahead of time, because they don’t want your house,”
Ahhh the infamous “workout” this will become known as the biggest lie of all time. What they forget to tell these folks is that the vast majority of time workouts work only if you have money in the bank or income to sustain the workout.
A McD’s manager making 40k a year trying to hold onto a 500k house is not going to qualify.
Yes, I was wondering when we’d see how the “workout” idea works out, LOL.
That is assuming the person wanting the workout still has a job.
I agree. Loan servicers have no interest in working out loans that are going into foreclosure. Those who own loans will only work something out if they think they will make more total dollars then if they let the loan go into foreclosure. Buyers who have paid down no principal and have no assets will go into foreclosure no matter what, so the banks have no incentive to “work out” anything with them.
The more this situation progresses the more I agree with Ben. There is going to be no bailout of any substantive nature. There will be symbolic measures and lip service paid to helping homeowners and while that is going on billions of dollars are going to evaporate on a daily basis.
WORKOUT. When the Lender says, “You WORK to pay me back and I’ll take it OUT of your monthly paycheck …for the next 37 years.”
no problem, a high court in CA recently ruled you do not have to give your own SSN when applying for work.
Sometimes I wish I were here illegally. It sure seems to pay off better.
GH,
Where did you read or hear about this?
Yes, please elaborate… methinks that at the very least you’d be committing identity theft and tax fraud if you gave someone else’s number…
Link
The article just says that the government can’t impose penalties until the court decides whether or not the penalties are legal.
I did lots of workouts in 1995-2002 … people called me up and said they couldn’t pay the mortgage because they had to pay for their cat’s funeral. Or whatever. I said no problem, skip it this month and next, and then just go back to paying the normal amount, understanding that you probably added four or six more payments to the end of your loan. In 2006-07, they have not been asking. Anyway I would not adjust someone’s RATE downward, and if the maturity date were already Infinity (as in I/O mortgages), I couldn’t extend it, could I. One way of looking at it is, all the slack available for “workout” was already used up in making the ARM I/O neg-am deals of 2005-07.
“Knox, whose sales have been 40 percent in subprime loans, said the majority of lenders are conscientious about explaining convoluted loans to clients – even though loan documents average, he said, between 15 and 100 pages.”
Can anyone here explain the difference between an average and a range?
LOL Big. Hand me 15 to 100 pages of documents and my lawyer will be reading the range.
Smiles,
Leigh
“Even in expensive areas like Marin County the crisis is beginning to be felt.”
Why is the word “even” in this sentence? I mean, Marin County is only expensive because it’s overpriced. It’s not like there are any high-paying jobs there.
There is no smell sweeter to those from Marin, than what emits from them, naturally.
“Marin County is only expensive because it’s overpriced. It’s not like there are any high-paying jobs there.”
No, but there are high paying jobs in San Francisco, which is the job market that supports Marin, for the most part. Plus there’s tech money from Silicon Valley and some old family money here as well.
I live in Marin, and yes, it’s definitely overpriced and due for a big slap.
“I live in Marin, and yes, it’s definitely overpriced and due for a big slap”
Never been there, but I had some friends who relocated to Marin from the Northeast back in the early 80s. You couldn’t blast them out of Marin, but they say it has always been relatively expensive since they’ve lived there, even as compared to suburban NY. I always wondered if that was really true or just their perception or the way they spent money.
Its always been expensive. However, this time is different. This time they HELOC’d their way to prosperity!
And how the heck can prices stay high if there are no jumbo loans?
Got popcorn?
Neil
Houses in Marin doubled, and in some cases, tripled during the boom. There’s no “sane” reason for that level of appreciation, especially after the dot.com money vaporized in 2001.
Yes, it’s expensive here. Grocery stores & gas stations & dry cleaners, everything has the “Marin” mark-up.
But the median home price now stands at about 10x the median household income, which isn’t sustainable. Prices are starting to come down, but sellers are still bent on “how special we are” and “everyone wants to live here.”
Prop 13 lets a lot of the housing stock stay off the market. And there are many places in Marin that are absolutely gorgeous.
Bloz:
I’m not sure I agree that Prop 13 keeps houses off the market. People move when they move. I’ve really never heard of anyone who wanted to move for some reason, but didn’t do it just because of property taxes. Most people only move when they really have to because moving is such a pain in the neck, and always an expense.
Besides, we have Prop 13 in the entire state of CA, not just Marin. So maybe some old fart wants to move to Marin, but he won’t becuase the taxes on his crappy Sunnyvale house are just too low. I just don’t see how Prop 13 would really make any area in CA more or less stable than others.
and you can transfer your prop 13 base year value rate to some other counties in CA. My parents did that when moving from Santa Clara Co to Kern co. when they retired and bought another home there.
Hail Antioch!
Caliguladinsane, emperor
S.P.Q.A.
“Real estate agent Luis Salas has about 10 listings in the Antioch area; eight are short sales, in which the sellers ask the bank to take the properties for less than they owe on the mortgage.”
–
OT, but…
Bernanke is speaking right now at a dinner gathering and talking about housing problems, sub-prime, securitization of mortgages, etc.
He is trying to explain what the problem is! As if the audience doesn’t already know.
Jas
“Says Feldstein about what’s really underlying his auction decision: ‘I’m a New Yorker,’ he declares. From a timing standpoint, ‘today is okay, but yesterday is always better.’”
Ya, about four years or so!
Ojai, California with a $4M piece of property? I am shocked. In fact I am shocked at $1.25M. Fortunately for Mr. Feldstein, it is a sealed bid auction so that he will be able to reject any and all bids. Sheldon Good makes out because Mr. Feldstein gets to guarantee the commission even on a non sale.
Listing on Sheldon goods web with pictures
http://tinyurl.com/258af9
Gorgeous place but 4 mil? Nope
Really! Great place! I’d do about 800K for that.
max
Why does he have all those baby Christmas trees growing in front of his house, and what’s with the Alamo-style architecture? I wouldn’t even pet-sit at that house, even if there were a really cute orange stripey kitten in it with a habit of leaving its tongue sticking half-way out.
Now let’s see. He bought it 3 years ago for $1.25 million, and now he wants $4 million. Oh, and it’s the worst real estate market in 20 years.
Sorry, but if we’re valuing properties at 250% of their price three years ago…. that’s an INCREDIBLY GOOD real estate market.
So either Feldstein is smoking crack, or things aren’t bad at all yet.
I got pre-approved on a 380k loan today. I live in north orange county. Let the lowball roll. When I saw a home in my neighborhood list for 465 after they had been as high as the 7s I knew It is time to go bargain hunting.
Go Dutch Trader! Spare no enemy, and demand that the staging furniture be thrown in as well.
Yes! And demand that the sellers pay all closing costs. Make this demand 1 week before closing.
~Misstrial
LOL…
Dont forget to lower the percentage points in the contract at the closing table. if caught, apologize …. and do it again.
seems to be gen. accepted business practice FROM the lenders, now its BUYERS turn. have a backup title co. standby also.
use words to downplay yer lies such as; simply, merely, pause, breather, new price, snap-up, and other weasel words.
Can the “i’m leaving to spend more time with my hyphenated name” excuse be far away?
“The housing forecast, delivered on Wednesday by CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young was perhaps the low point of the conference. The state’s median home price will incur the biggest drop in 15 years, as sales slide to their lowest point in more than 20 years, Appleton-Young said.”
I notice the Realtors here in Orange County don’t hand out “Gary Watt’s Economic Outlook” anymore. Too embarrassing?
On a related note, prices are continuing to drop in OC although there are still many 2005 wishing prices being asked.
“Mission Viejo broker/economist Gary Watts, whose home-price insights are widely watching in the local real estate community, conceded Friday that his 2007 housing forecast was wrong, but in his 2008 forecast remains upbeat, predicting that home sales will bounce back.”
my prediction: Gary Watts, whose home-price insights are widely watched in the local real estate community, will concede that his 2008 housing forecast was wrong, but in his 2009 forecast will remain upbeat, predicting that home sales will bounce back.
Bernanke: Housing Slump Will Be Drag On Economy
WASHINGTON (AP) ― A deepening housing slump probably will be a “significant drag” on economic growth into next year and it will take time for Wall Street to fully recover from a painful credit crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Monday.
Bernanke once again pledged to “act as needed” to help financial markets — which have suffered through several months of turbulence — function smoothly and to keep the economy and inflation on an even keel.
http://cbs3.com/national/Ben.Bernanke.Federal.2.375035.html
“Bernanke once again pledged to “act as needed” to help financial markets — which have suffered through several months of turbulence — function smoothly and to keep the economy and inflation on an even keel.”
Yes, but, can he really do it? And at what point would the efforts become futile? I guess, if you can just print money out of thin air, what the hey?
You got to remember that “act as needed” to Burnankles simply means lying thru his teeth while he waits for the whole problem to go away and leave him alone already.
“Bernanke once again pledged to “act as needed” to help financial markets … function smoothly and to keep inflation on an even keel.”
Yeah, Bernanke promised to keep inflation roaring with an even keeled ACCELERATION.
Urgent:
Bernanke: Housing slump will be drag on economy. Wall Street recovery will take time.
The AP
Black Tuesday coming?
“Bernanke: Housing slump will be drag on economy. Wall Street recovery will take time.”
Palmetto: Fish are jumpin’ and the cotton is high.
OK. I looked up the lyrics. I get who the daddy is, but who’s the mommy? Must be me!
“Wall Street recovery will take time.”
How does one orchestrate a recovery from near record highs? What is Wall Street recovering from - hurt feelings? a broken heart?
–
“Black Tuesday coming? ”
Nah. Futures are unchanged.
Jas
Here ya go………all the good news on housing…….take ya pick
http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/news?ei=UTF-8&p=housing%20slump&sado=1&fr2=tab-web&fr=fp-today
I like this one:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aBdgPpQ1p0m4
“Mexico’s Bolsa index fell from a record on concern the U.S. housing slump will be worse than expected, threatening consumption in Mexico’s largest export market.”
I can’t help it, I’m killing myself laughing over here. What consumption are they talking about? I know some of us are not fond of illegals, but we’ve never resorted to cannibalism.
I think you might just have solved the impending international food shortage. I mean the way they can marinate meat these days ..who would know?.
Hey, how about Soilant Bean?.
Maybe this;
http://tinyurl.com/2b9sfg
Oh, my, you ARE wicked…
They were nice about it,’ Chavez said of the representatives he eventually spoke with at his lenders. ‘But I mean, it’s still, ‘They don’t have a program for you.’
OH, they have a program for you. Can you spell
J O S H U A T R E E TREATMENT. Other choice (probably both F O R E C L O S U R E
“They don’t have a program for you.’”
Sure they do. It’s called Welfare.
“In response to a call Wednesday by NACA for a boycott of Countrywide because, according to the group, the company ‘refuses to restructure loans to what homeowners can afford,’ the lender issued a statement Thursday.”
Imagine that. What do you think would happen if I went down to Best Buy and told them I can’t afford a plasma TV, so I’d like them to restructure the price to something I can afford?
and this AFTER you bought the plasma TV.
She has no plans to sell her homes at below what she paid, nor she says will other builders. So they’re getting into the rental business while waiting it out.”
I hope she has deep pockets to pay the hungry alligator and doesn’t mind a Joshua Tree or two.
“The best laid plans of mice and men …”
..and rats.
touche
ok, so I’ve been away for a while, and I missed the whole Joshua Tree thing. What the hell does it mean?
Bend over; we’ll show you.
Why do we listen to 15% in the bag Gary? To laugh at the stupidity that dribbles from his mouth. Send him to Redding to console those that won’t sell below what they owe. He can convince them that 15% up is in the bag.
These so called great eCONomists (Greedscam, in the bag Gary, etc) are publicly admitting they didn’t see the trouble coming. But a bunch of folks on an awesome blog, led by a true hero (thank you Ben), were able to predict this to a T.
Actually, AFTER Greedscam left office he said some mighty contradictory things at several seminars & conferences he gave overseas. Until we bring back Tar & Featherings these asswipes will never repent.
Word Robzter! I saw that and thought to myself… “She quit her teaching job to go into Real Estate? This time next year, she’ll be back to writing on the chalkboard at super-speed!!”
No, next year she will be dancing at the Spearmint Rhino (or her area equivalent).
“”The Orange County Register. “Mission Viejo broker/economist Gary Watts, whose home-price insights are widely watching in the local real estate community, conceded Friday that his 2007 housing forecast was wrong, but in his 2008 forecast remains upbeat, predicting that home sales will bounce back.””
I’m speechless. And to think people still give any credibility to the advice and predictions of douchebags like this ‘economist’ ..and those of his ilk.
Watts makes a (supposedly) professional market forecast, is grossly off target, then just turns around and gives another unrealistic forecast all over again. Like they say in Tennessee, “Fool me once …” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A)
I sometimes almost wish I were Canadian.
Jeeze.
dan: sometimes almost wish I were Canadian.
it’s going down to -1 ° C. ( 30 ° F. )tonight, leaves will be down in a two weeks, on the other hand house prices are up, inventory is low.
“”The Orange County Register. “Mission Viejo broker/economist Gary Watts, whose home-price insights are widely watching in the local real estate community, conceded Friday that his 2007 housing forecast was wrong”
Should that be “widely watched”, not “watching” ?
Yet mortgage brokers are the group getting the largest portion of bad press. Many brokers are fighting back, blaming the banks and mortgage companies that package the loans and establish broker fees.”
They were all to blame here. He who is without sin, let him cast the first stone? None of them will recognize that (not trying to preach religion specific - just a well known story). I hope they all eat $H!T and D!E.
Amen, brother. Amen.
Alan’s speaks! Listen from minute 10 on to the end
http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&brand=msnbc&vid=e7f800f3-6546-4e72-8ba8-b456aa4121dd
No reccession coming …..
WE ARE AT WAR AND THIS IS A WAR ECONOMY…
HALIBURTON STOCK IS WAY UP…
Cheny is now a billionare..
No problem at the defense contractors
This housing/mortgage issue is small potatoes compared to the war.
BUT WARS ARE COSTLY…..no prob.. this one is on the credit card
Cheney is worth about a hundred million I believe at this point, and yes Haliburton is doing great! good to have friends where it counts!
I see a thousand points of NIGHT.
Somebody please pass a note down to George…
“God is actually Satan in a Dick Cheney mask. Please remember this when you hear that obtuse voice during the night.”
Can anyone comment on the situation in Ventura. I have been looking in the Thousand Oaks area and it seems that the prices have really not budged much. It would seem to be an ideal area for big drops with Amgen and Countrywide leading the chaos in addition to being in the middle of nowhere.
I need a pretty darn big drop to be able to buy (40%?) - my gut tells me that the sh*t should be hitting the fan by now…
(somebody tell me “patience, grasshopper”)
Patience Grasshopper. The same thing is happening in the nice areas of OC. The reason -as far as I can surmise- is that FB’s are holding on tooth & nail to their ridiculous prices because they’re either;
- upside down
- unable to refi at a lower rate
- upside down
FB’s are doing everything in their power to negotiate themselves an acceptable way out of the mess as we speak. MANY others will be joining them soon. The banks inherit the unrealistic price expectations when they take over these foreclosed homes and only when the numbers start getting higher will it overwhelm the FL’s and THEN we’ll see REAL auctions.
Let us sit & meditate on the follies of Greed while we wait.
thanks dan…. feel better already….
“Let us sit & meditate on the follies of Greed while we wait.”
Good advice. We have to remind ourselves that “The calender is the executioner of FB’s every where”,
Patience is needed.
However and with that said things in Rancho Santa Margarita are starting to give, if slightly, in the bizarro world of condos.
Went on a morning ride with the wife and in this one condo development there were at least 6 or 7 for sale. The 3/2, which is what we need are as low as 429K. I know what you guys/gals are thinking. So am I. However, the difference a year makes. Last year they would have been asking 529k+. Now, a hundred large off. Good sign. Next year when you are sucking air at 329k+, I will make a lowball offer of 175K. When they say no, I will tell them my next offer is 150K and so on and so forth.
What you also have to factor in is 180/month for HOA and then another 45/month for some other somesuchcrapola. Therefore, you are already 225/month in the holes forever. And these noodleheads think people will be able to afford that on top of the 2500/month for the loan plus another 10% for maintenance. Sure, I got yer 3 grand/month for 360 months for a freakin’ condo right here in my wall! Sure lunacy, I tell ya!
My thinking exactly. And you left out mention of possible Mello Roos which would drive up the payments even further. Yet still they drone on with the “renters are throwing their money away” crapola.
It’s coming, but you may need lots of patience. I spent many years in that area and have watched it change - I don’t think it qualifies as “the middle of nowhere” anymore but is rather part of coastal development that is now virtually uninterrupted until you’re past Santa Barbara.
There are a lot of big L.A. incomes (and attitudes) through there, which I believe means sellers will hang tough, for longer. Rent, eat, love, live! Don’t hate the process, time is your friend.
jb
check out zip realty. more houses with reductions than those with out.
sales near by feature for almost every house i checked, shows no sales after apr/may. june july are the peak sales , no sales listed for these months.
So many houses are already at 2005 prices and still sitting with out a sale.
Some SH*T homes are at 2003 prices(very few) and still no sale.
next spring is when all the hell should break loose.
I went to look at D.R. Horton’s Orbela development last week in Oxnard. They are selling their higher end models. The lower end 2 bedroom 2 bath was sold out. The lady said they are not going to build anymore for the time being due to the housing slump.
We live in Thousand Oaks, and are paying cash for our next home. Sellers still think they own the Taj Mahal, so we’re just ignoring looking. Just let reality set in. Let the lay-offs hit home. Let inflation kick in some more.
We went from almost 4,000 sq ft to an apt on Erbes. Talk about culture and lifestyle shock. The illegals are dreadful neighbors. They earn their reputation, that’s for sure.
Don’t forget we are in the driver’s seat. Hold out.
Just over the hill from Ojai (in Ventura County) is southern Santa Barbara County. This week’s post at the Santa Barbara Housing Bubble Blog features a residence whose value ZESTIMATE(TM) exceeds the current South Coast median by approximately 5 percent. You might be a redneck Realtor if this is how you’d stage a home. (The property is zoned for multiple residences, which might help justify that 5-percent premium.) Also in this week’s post: another poke at the Santa Barbara Association of Realtors.
Francamente,
Saint Barbara
OT: Ben Bernanke is talking about slowing economy. Wonder how stock market will react to that?
He is trying to spread out the bid distribution in the asset markets by providing an uncertain picture of the outlook — standard Fedspeak strategy. Consequently, no matter what the FOMC meeting outcome, it will pack extra punch because of the surprise factor.
Any comments about a slowing economy could be construed as laying the foundation for future rate cuts — bullish for stocks in a world where many investors in the U.S. stock market appear to believe the Fed holds the market’s puppet strings in hand.
Bernanke sees better near-term outlook
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: October 16 2007 00:53 | Last updated: October 16 2007 00:53
The improvement in the functioning of credit markets since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates has reduced the risk to the near-term economic outlook, Ben Bernanke on Monday said in a speech that suggests the decision on whether to cut rates again this month will be a tough one.
Mr Bernanke said the improvement “increases the likelihood of achieving moderate growth with price stability”. However, the Fed chairman warned that the “ultimate implications of financial developments for the cost and availabilty of credit, and thus for the broader economy, remain uncertain”. He told the New York Economic Club that a full recovery of market functioning “is likely to take time” and warned “we may well see some setbacks”.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c83e2e32-7b76-11dc-8c53-0000779fd2ac.html
^
a four hundred point rally would not be out of the question.
I’m going long -
Up is down down is up 1+1=3
We really are going through a major adjustment right now to a market that isn’t fueled by those expectations,’ Appleton-Young said.”
I think she may have been mis-quoted. I think she probably said “fooled”, and not “fueled”.
“The truth lies in the fact that today’s homeowners have more income, more equity and more wealth than in previous cycles. [Gary In-the-bag Watts]”
That’s a pretty ballsy thing to say.
1) Income. The median income has tracked inflation, that’s it. It’s particularly ballsy for Gary to say this since one of our bigger industries, subprime mortgages, just imploded. Most of the jobs in subprime were above median pay.
2) Equity and wealth. No doubt obscured here on purpose. Home equity is a *result* of outsized appreciation, not a cause. The so-called “wealth” he talks about is almost all home equity, so he’s being redundant.
If Gary really wanted to support his conclusion of home appreciation, he would cite high job growth and high influx of highly paid executives. We don’t have these things. People are leaving. Unemployment in OC is climbing, even with the exodus of people.
Nice try, Gary.
test
““But East Oak developer Karen Margrave said buyers waiting for some colossal closeout sale will be sorely disappointed. She has no plans to sell her homes at below what she paid, nor she says will other builders. So they’re getting into the rental business while waiting it out.”
Hey Karen, guess what?
(1) You won’t have any more luck trying to rent those POS’s for what you THINK you can get than you have had trying to sell them.
(2) If you do rent them at a loss (market equivalent), you’re only inflicting the “death of a thousand cuts” sentence on yourself–while you painfully watch other (wise) developers “dump em’ and run.”
Greed’s a grinder ain’t it girl?
DOC
Theres a realtor with a house 4 blocks from us. She wanted 200 a month more than I’m paying for the same size house, the catcher is I live on the lake now and her house is not on the lake. She has it priced at 455k and w/in 2 blocks there are several nicer larger houses for sale
Go here and do this:
http://financialpetition.org/
From this petition: “Congress must amend the appropriate sections of US Code and Regulations so that all mortgage debt can be discharged in personal bankruptcy, that all “short sale” differentials are exempt from taxation as “income”, and that all GSE-backed mortgage loans are “non-recourse” loans.”
I couldn’t disagree more - people who borrowed more than they could pay so that they could speculate in home purchases should not be spared taxes on the huge windfall they get from short sales, nor should they be allowed to emerge from bankruptcy keeping the ill-gotten gains of housing they could not afford.
Amen! No bailout for greedy get-rich-quickers.
And if politicians want a good photo-op with some poor “Single Mom” whose about to lose her home, at least qualify this. Perhaps limiting it to:
1. People who had mortgages that paid off some principal (no neg-Am)
2. …on your primary home, that you lived in
3 …ONLY if you had one and only one mortgage (no HELOC)
4. …and you had put a downpayment of at least 10%
(again, I don’t favor this bailout in any form, but at least let’s not pour $$$–directly or in th form of tax breaks—to schemers and Donald Trump wannabees)
…also what’s to stop wealthy people to set up dummy corporations to pay them in “Mortgages”, and then simply not pay them back. Tax Free income.
Forgiven debt is real income! Not some phantom funny-money. It’s as real as getting paid $x to labor for an hour.
But if they’re allowed to foreclose or BK with no penalty (other than ruined credit), then they will. That will send the number of homes on the market skyrocketing! And the petition specifically disqualifies investors.
To back that link up.
http://tickervideo.org/eod-1015/eod-1015.html
http://www.naca.com/index.jsp
I was totally not expecting this to pop up on my screen. So funny! But appropriate I guess given what he just did with his options. Can it get any worse for CW??
Period: 2005 to Present - Total buy: $184,746 Total sale: $369,021,169
My God!!!!!!
You all must be hip to lolcats. Here’s one that’s appropriate. (Hoping this is not old news here.)
Probably too late to be read, but stock futures are dropping due to oil being at $87 to $88/bbl on foreign exchanges (I’m seeing both numbers).
Hong Kong stocks are down about 2%. Ouch. But Shanghai is up ~1%.
BB’s words weren’t well liked.
This doesn’t feel like “it.” But it does feel like a bearish week.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I always read California post the next day. Oil is way up today.
“This doesn’t feel like “it.” But it does feel like a bearish week.”
Yes, Neil this does feel like it.
“Says Feldstein about what’s really underlying his auction decision: ‘I’m a New Yorker,’ he declares. From a timing standpoint, ‘today is okay, but yesterday is always better.’”
All my troubles seemed so far away…
“But East Oak developer Karen Margrave said buyers waiting for some colossal closeout sale will be sorely disappointed. She has no plans to sell her homes at below what she paid, nor she says will other builders…”
Any idea how developer-turned-landlord Ms. Margrave knows that no other builder will sell homes below what they “paid?” Is that how a free market works?
From today’s local paper:
That’s the way the ball bounces.
Huh, miniature golf course. What a dumbass.
“Value?” On paper, maybe. Let’s call it “vapor equity.”
California sales falling to 1985 levels is really more like great depression levels. There are several million more housing units today than existed in ‘85.