October 17, 2007

Buyers Have The Benefit

King 5.com reports from Washington. “Selling a home in the Seattle area has become trickier. What used to sell in one week can now take months. Home sellers are going to more and more extremes, offering enticing incentives to hook a buyer. Those boom days when homes in Seattle could be sold in a matter of hours are for the most part over.”

“When Tavis Gaudet put up his ‘for sale’ sign on his home in West Seattle, he wasn’t alone. Two houses, one across the street and another up the block, also had signs up as well. Just a couple of blocks away, three houses in a row are on the market.”

“‘You’re always looking for some kind of edge that’s going to take you beyond what your competition is going to be,’ said Reba Haas, realtor.”

“According to real estate statistics, Seattle had 50 percent more homes on the market during the month of September than last fall. At the same time, pending sales dropped by more than 25 percent.”

“For sellers, one of the most important things they can do is to be realistic about the worth of their home. Real estate agents say some of these lower prices are simply because sellers were asking for too much in the first place.”

The Oregonian. “Three years ago, home builders in the Portland market worried about having enough supply to meet sizzling demand. Now, the region faces a glut of available homes, a six-month supply for sale, translating to the biggest inventory in three years and an emerging buyer’s market.”

“To stay in the game, builders are slashing prices and offering incentives such as trips and gift cards to clear out stock, leasing homes rather than selling them, and cutting back on building without confirmed buyers.”

“‘There’s a lot of standing inventory and real price-point issues that are going to slow the pace of construction,’ said housing economist Jerry Johnson, who advises home builders and local governments.”

“In Happy Valley, about 70 upscale homes built by Buena Vista Custom Homes are looking for takers. Average time on the market: three to four months, despite striking views of Mount Hood and Clackamas County, granite countertops and stone entryways. Some have sat empty for six.”

“‘It’s a great time to buy,’ said Don Johnson, broker and the listing agent for the homes. ‘Just on Buena Vista alone, they’ll knock $20,000 off the price — that’s instant equity,’ he said.”

“‘It’s a good market, just not that 30-year-high market,’ said Mike Higgins, a spokesman for fast-growing Buena Vista.”

“In August, pending home sales in the Portland area dropped 18 percent compared with the same month during a hot 2006 season, according to the Regional MLS. Officials estimated it would take 6.2 months to sell 15,782 active residential listings at that pace.”

“Companies such as luxury builder Renaissance Homes are ready to deal, within reason, to tempt skittish potential buyers into any of the 35 to 50 finished homes it has on the market in communities from Forest Grove to Clark County, Wash., to Bend, said VP Kim Whitman. He said the company’s sales this year will be on par with last year but not as strong as projected, in part because of an unusually high rate of ’sale fails’ in 2007.”

“‘It’s just not as crazy as it once was,’ he said.”

“Katie Fellows’ 3,100-square-foot, five-bedroom home in Portland continues to sit on the market as it has for the past seven months, at an asking price of $499,000. ‘We had an open house in September, and three people came, but there were no real nibbles,’ she said. ‘Our listing expired and we relisted it, but nothing really happened then either.’”

“Up the street, five or six brand new empty homes also languish in the subdivision. ‘I’d hate to be a builder right now,’ she said.”

“The downturn threatens to delay construction in Pleasant Valley right when Gresham’s bid to urbanize it should be gaining steam. ‘Unfortunately, we aren’t the real estate gods, the market is what it is,’ said Cody Bjugan, owner of one of the city’s three private development partners. ‘It’s too bad, because we’ve all made a huge commitment.’”

“Now, with the market in flux, no one is sure how much demand to expect, especially since a pocket of houses built next to the valley are selling so slowly a couple have become rentals.”

“‘It’s almost like having a lottery ticket and not being able to cash it,’ said dentist Stan Bohnstedt, who anticipates selling his five acres to be developed when market conditions improve. For the moment, ‘it’s like being in limbo,’ he said.”

The Argus Observer from Oregon. “Two local real estate agents said the housing market in the area is either a buyer’s market or just a good opportunity for potential house hunters.”

“Karen Hollis, a real estate agent in Payette, (and) Kim Bruce, a real estate agent in Fruitland, both agree there are a large number of houses available locally.”

“Hollis said for the most part, the prices for lots and houses are holding, although they have shown a slight decline. ‘I don’t think the bottom’s dropping out, but right now it’s really turning from a selling market to a buying market,’ she said.”

“‘The cycle’s always up and down,’ she said. ‘But we’ve overbuilt a little bit.’”

“In the future, Hollis said she expects the types of housing being built in Payette County to better reflect the income base of the area. ‘I think it’s a good thing,’ Hollis said. ‘You hate to see them overbuild something that the community can’t support.’”

“Bruce said, currently in the area, houses are selling ‘if the price is right,’ but added ‘buyers do have the benefit right now.’”

The Statesman Journal from Oregon. “State lawmakers vowed Tuesday to pursue a subprime-mortgage lending reform bill in February’s special legislative session. But the scope of the bill still is unclear, as consumer advocates and mortgage industry representatives remain at odds about the role the state should play.”

“Milwaukie resident Bob Barney, who was forced to sell his home and forfeit his retirement savings because of an ill-advised mortgage, said when he boards a bus, he rests assured the uniformed driver is responsible and will get him there safely. Home borrowers should have assurances their home lenders are trustworthy, and not like people selling used cars through the classified ads, Barney said.”

“‘I believe that the people who are selling these products have a responsibility,’ he said.”

“Consumer advocate Angela Martin, of the group Our Oregon, said 15,000 Oregon homeowners have adjustable-rate subprime mortgages at risk of foreclosure in the next 12 months, because their monthly payments will jump $400 or more.”

“Christopher Ambrose, president of the Oregon Mortgage Lenders Association, warned that other states’ efforts to restrict predatory lending were ‘unmitigated disasters,’ reducing home ownership. ‘This is a national crisis that requires national solutions,’ Ambrose said.”

“‘The lending community is perfectly happy with lax lending laws,’ Martin said after the hearing, skeptical that a consensus can be forged.”

“Sen. Ben Westlund said the state needs to avoid hampering the industry and causing the economy to ‘crater.’ But, he added, ‘there has to be more fiduciary responsibility and individual accountability for the mortgage lending industry.’”

“Westlund said, ‘If someone thinks this isn’t a problem, then they’re wrong. The worst is yet to come.’”

The Idaho Press. “Idaho ranked 17th in the nation with 646 foreclosure filings, or one for every 922 households. That’s almost a 19 percent increase from August 2007. RealtyTrac’s Web site currently lists 275 foreclosure properties for Caldwell and 496 for Nampa.”

“As far as what’s driving an increase in foreclosures from last year, Travis Franklin, VP of marketing at Home Federal Bank, said, ‘I think it falls back on some of the unique lending products that were being used.’”

“Franklin said that during the housing boom, some banks and lenders ‘wanted to make a buck’ and were making riskier loans to finance people who were greater credit risks. However, Franklin said Home Federal Bank has only had four foreclosures this year. ‘As a local bank, we’ve been pretty conservative,’ he said.”

The Idaho Statesman. “Andrea Campbell couldn’t sleep at all Thursday night, anticipating the new Corey Barton house in Meridian she planned to buy, thanks to a big sale Barton’s company, CBH Homes, is holding this weekend. Campbell arrived at the Meridian sales office at 8 a.m. Friday.”

“Her purchase was one of six sales there in the first hour. Campbell and her husband had been looking for a home in less-expensive Nampa. ‘We couldn’t afford a home in Meridian,’ Campbell said. ‘This sale came and saved the day.’”

“The sale is aimed at pushing potential homebuyers off the fence by reducing prices on 200 Treasure Valley homes. The biggest discount in Meridian: $70,000 off a $377,895 home on White Birch Drive, lowering it to $307,895.”

“But while Barton’s ads prominently advertised ‘up to $70,000 off,’ that was the only home in Meridian with so big a discount. A price sheet listing 78 Meridian homes in eight subdivisions featured discounts mostly between $20,000 and $30,000.”

“The four-bedroom, 2,000-square-foot house Campbell looked at — and signed a purchase agreement for — was discounted $30,000 to $179,900.”

“Barton’s sale could inject energy, at least briefly, into a Treasure Valley housing market crowded with nearly 8,000 unsold homes in August.”

“A couple of buyers in line when the doors opened at 9 a.m. were hoping for the same house. The one who arrived three minutes earlier snagged it. The other buyer went searching for another deal.” “‘The phones have been ringing off the hook,’ said Michelle Jacobi, the office manager.”




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82 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-10-17 12:49:03

‘Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, Ore., has announced that it expects to report a net loss of unspecified size for the third quarter due to the weakening housing construction market. The expected loss will be the result of a loan-loss provision of approximately $1.4 million, the bank said. ‘

Comment by Clint8200
2007-10-17 22:41:44

Don’t forget to check out the Portland Housing Blog for the latest info on the Portland market.
http://www.portlandhousing.blogspot.com

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-10-17 12:50:16

“Home sellers are going to more and more extremes, offering enticing incentives to hook a buyer.”

Sellers = hookers?

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-10-17 12:59:01


And buyers are Johns!

Come on, have a cheap thrill.

Jas

 
Comment by kthomas
2007-10-17 13:40:31

OK, ladies and gents, let’s stick to the housing aspect of this before things degenerate into other seedy subjects. Really, Professor.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2007-10-17 17:52:27

gee whiz… does that mean no Hummers?

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2007-10-17 12:51:34

Sorry to be OT, but you have to see this if you haven’t already.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=220159266937#ebayphotohosting

Selling possibly historic Countrywide wristband to raise cash.

Comment by goirishgohoosiers
2007-10-17 13:22:52

Unbelievable. A plastic wristband that probably cost less than 5 cents to make has a bid for $182.50 as of 4:20 EDT.

Well, I guess we now know what the next bubble will be in: cheap plastic wristbands. Bid now, or you’ll be priced out forever . . .

Comment by goirishgohoosiers
2007-10-17 13:38:48

Should’ve read that more carefully. Bidding topped out at $182.50 but that doesn’t change my point that it’s a ridiculous amount to pay for green plastic.

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-10-17 15:27:10

why did they pick Puke Green?

Comment by roguevalleygirl
2007-10-17 20:24:14

It would look good on my cat. Kind of expensive tho.

 
 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-10-17 12:56:18


Aren’t buyers lucky that we had the bubble so that they can benefit now.

Jas

 
Comment by Helicopter Commander Bernanke
2007-10-17 12:57:53

It all sounds vaguely familiar.

 
Comment by Not_In_Montana
2007-10-17 12:59:02

“In August, pending home sales in the Portland area dropped 18 percent compared with the same month during a hot 2006 season”

That’s nothing! Missoula MT is down 26% for Sept.

What does it mean when those “We buy houses” signs start popping up? Bottom feeders?

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-10-17 13:04:16


Down 48.5%, YoY, in SoCal. Top that!

Jas

Comment by DC_Too
2007-10-17 13:40:31

You win. DC down 42%

Comment by dude
2007-10-17 14:16:17

I remember last year when palmetto and others in FL were crowing that they were the best at being worst.

I told them then and I’ll say it again, nobody does stupid excess like Caliphony-a. We are the sledge hammer of the housing market.

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Comment by Blano
2007-10-17 13:13:17

It means a seminar guru just came through town.

 
Comment by kpom
2007-10-17 13:14:03

Well, I saw a “We help you with foreclosures” ad on the back of a Portland bus for the first time today.

Comment by Duane Lapinski
2007-10-17 13:38:13

Yesterday I heard another indicator of the condition of Bozeman Montana’s real estate market. The building were our office is also houses Phillips Office Supply. One of the women that works for Phillps told me that the forms to file Constuction Liens are being sold so fast they can’t keep any in stock.

Comment by Groundhogday
2007-10-17 14:54:40

I think that the editorial you posted this weekend signals that Bozeman has reached the implosion point, this is going to be one long, cold winter in the Gallatin Valley. Lawsuits, bankruptcies, foreclosures, wailing and gnashing of teeth.

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Comment by Duane lapinski
2007-10-17 15:36:23

Another potential fiasco is this, Cowdery Towers condos. http://bozemandailychronical.com/article/2007/09/12/news/30building.txt. Tracy Cowdrey just be the “organizing director” of Bank of Bozeman, and a major local builder, along with his father, Buzz Cowdery. I just wounder where the financing for these condos are going to come from. Check out http//www.bankof bozeman.com See all the local land devolopers, contractors and real estate people on the board. It is too much like Empire Saving and Loan, and the I-30 Condo scandal in Dallas Texas in 1984.

 
Comment by Groundhogday
2007-10-17 18:33:33

Luxury condo towers, in Bozeman, at this time??? Nuts, the whole world has gone completely nuts!

 
 
Comment by Groundhogday
2007-10-17 15:17:59

One more Gallatin Valley anecdote. A friend of an employee doubled his income over the past couple of years flipping lots. He’d buy from the developers right when the lots became available then sell again a few months to a year later for 10-20% profit (always leveraged of course, he didn’t actually have any money).

But this flipper didn’t know how to get out when the getting was good. A year ago, I heard second hand that he decided to get out of the flipping game as the market made him nervous. But apparently it was already too late, he is now stuck with a bunch of lots that he can’t sell and will probably give back all of his gains. Of course, those gains are already spent and the lots are leveraged, so I suppose technically the bank will give back his gains.

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Comment by Duane lapinski
2007-10-17 16:03:35

That link on my prior post didn’t work for some reason. About land filpping, The last I was at the Gallatin County Clerk and Recorders office I was going through Notices of Trusties Sales, (a type of forclosure). A lot of them were for multiple lots, I bet they were land filppers. From 1990-1999 there were 14 Notices of Trusties Sales. So far this year, there have been 160.

 
 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2007-10-17 13:48:56

Was the bus going into or out of town? :smile:

 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-10-17 14:12:19

But…but, I thought Seattle and Portland were “different”.

Comment by Groundhogday
2007-10-17 14:29:16

Had a Realtor in Pullman, WA tell me this town was “unique” just yesterday. I guess she has never been to Moscow, Idaho… another small, rural land grant college town just 8 miles away.

I don’t even argue anymore…

 
 
 
Comment by CA Guy
2007-10-17 13:13:03

“‘It’s a great time to buy,’ said Don Johnson, broker and the listing agent for the homes. ‘Just on Buena Vista alone, they’ll knock $20,000 off the price — that’s instant equity,’ he said.”

Excuse me, but WTF is this retard talking about? Instant equity! Hell yeah, sign me up for three of those POS stucco boxes! In the long run RE always goes up! Price to income ratios are irrelevant! It’s different here! 1K people per day are moving here! They aren’t making any more land! It’s the biggest no-brainer in history! Buy a house and retire rich! We’re working off an entirely new economic model here! As Leigh always says, you can’t make this stuff up. Yes, realtors really are that stupid!

Comment by Blano
2007-10-17 13:15:51

He’s just another shill that needs to be beotch slapped just like Yun and Co.

 
Comment by Statsman
2007-10-17 13:21:16

Yeah, that instant equity comment really got me too. The logic is perverse that it will probably convince some sheeple that they can strike it rich by purchasing one.

Apparently no one explained to “Don Johnson” that acting skills do not translate to economic skills. Go back to Miami, Don. ;-)

Comment by LarryDan
2007-10-17 13:26:11

What he really meant was it’s an instant equity reduction for anyone who bought at last months higher price.

 
Comment by az_owner
2007-10-17 13:44:32

Exactly, Tubbs called and he wants the Testarossa back…

 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-10-17 13:56:10

“instant equity” for Mr. Don Johnson that is

 
Comment by MacAttack
2007-10-17 14:46:12

If you don’t want to buy, Buena Vista will give you a trip to Hawaii just for LEASING one of their new houses. Seriously. But - it’s different here.

 
 
Comment by sleepless_in_seattle
2007-10-17 13:13:34

Home price in Seattle always go up…Everyone wants to move here because of plenty of jobs offer by Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, Amazon, TMobile, etc..

Move along…we are different than the rest of the country. LOL

Comment by Curt
2007-10-17 14:56:27

Sleepless….

You forgot to add that Seattle is running out of land.

 
Comment by Groundhogday
2007-10-17 15:01:34

How quickly things have turned in the Pacific Northwest! As recently as May, everyone was insisting we were “different”. Now, other than the realtors, I don’t know of anyone who DOESN’T believe real estate is going down.

 
 
Comment by boulderbo
2007-10-17 13:17:01

“‘I believe that the people who are selling these products have a responsibility,’ he said.”

More of the McDonalds defense. You would think that these poor “victims” would treat the biggest financial decision in their lives with a little more respect. This is getting a little out of hand, I can’t envision the mortgage brokerage industry surviving this, especially with Hillary at the wheel.

Comment by Blano
2007-10-17 13:54:06

How the responsibility of the BORROWER himself can be totally ignored just amazes me.

 
Comment by MacAttack
2007-10-17 14:47:48

Actaully McDonalds had a big hand in their own suit, which started simply as a request for medical bills to be paid. Do a bit of research on the case; you may develop sympathy for the plaintiff.

Comment by veloblues
2007-10-17 14:57:23

Agreed.

 
 
 
Comment by Statsman
2007-10-17 13:23:39

“‘It’s almost like having a lottery ticket and not being able to cash it,’ said dentist Stan Bohnstedt, who anticipates selling his five acres to be developed when market conditions improve.”

Maybe Stan should check his “lottery ticket” to see if it is a winning ticket. Looks like a LOSER to me.

Comment by Rally Mitigation Team Member Bob
2007-10-17 14:17:14

Indeed… And the fact the he equates his RE purchase decision to playing the lottery speaks volumes about the continuing bubble mindset.

 
 
Comment by Statsman
2007-10-17 13:27:38

“Milwaukie resident Bob Barney, who was forced to sell his home and forfeit his retirement savings because of an ill-advised mortgage, said when he boards a bus, he rests assured the uniformed driver is responsible and will get him there safely. Home borrowers should have assurances their home lenders are trustworthy, and not like people selling used cars through the classified ads, Barney said.”

Can someone please clarify this comment? I don’t recall how a foreclosure or a bankruptcy can clear out your retirement savings unless you take the money out yourself and spend it. Am I misinformed?

Comment by KayLaw
2007-10-17 13:38:48

I guess he means he had to “take a check to the closing.”

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-10-17 13:49:41

I’ll give it a go, others may also jab at this twisted statement!

Milwaukie resident Bob Barney, who was forced to sell his home and forfeit his retirement savings because of an ill-advised mortgage…

ILL advised mortgage…the gentleman has enough sense to accumulate said retirement savings, why not file BK and protect said assets?

said when he boards a bus, he rests assured the uniformed driver is responsible and will get him there safely…

if said driver does not get him there safely he will get hurt and possibly die. The family (or he) makes considerable ammount of money, in either case from likely lawsuit…now careful, that would require an attorney.

Home borrowers should have assurances their home lenders are trustworthy…borrowers (appologies to blind ones) are to read legal contract or pay attorney to do so…see, again, attorney.

and not like people selling used cars through the classified ads, Barney said…

er, again, if you’re not a car genious, take vehicle to qualified specialist!

See! Fun and easy!
Leigh : )

Comment by Leighsong
2007-10-17 14:01:28

er

ammount=amount

genious=genius

(Editor is off today ; )

 
Comment by Annata
2007-10-17 14:39:10

There is a problem here with the lending industry, and I think we talk about it frequently on this blog. I think Barney is not really stating it accurately.

You do trust a bus driver to get you somewhere safely, and this system works naturally. What makes it work is that the bus driver is on the same bus as the passenger. If the bus drives off a bridge, the driver goes off the bridge, too. In fact, since the bus driver is on the bus for a much longer time than the passenger, the likelihood that he will get into a bus accident over the course of his life is much higher than for any individual passenger. So he has a vested interest in getting the bus to its destination safely, even more so than the passenger.

Your comment about consulting a lawyer is interesting. Generally, people trust the legal counsel they obtain from a lawyer, even though they may not have favorable opinions of the person or the profession. Why is this case different from the mortgage broker? Probably because the lawyer has an incentive to give accurate legal advice; otherwise, he could be disbarred. Disbarrment is a pretty severe penalty because it would wipe out the significant investment that lawyers make to enter the profession. So, unlike the more natural case of the bus driver, the threat of severe punishment from a regulating agency serves to keep them “honest.”

Mortgage brokers have no natural disincentive against swindling their customers. But a system similar to the one used for lawyers may nevertheless work.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-10-17 22:01:43

well said.

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Comment by jag
2007-10-17 14:51:57

When you board a bus, yes, you do rely on others to deliver you safely.

When you take responsibility for paying back a mortgage you are in the drivers seat. You are alone. Period.

If Bob didn’t get that fundamental, if he thought other’s were supposed to “take care of him” in this transaction, he likely would have ended up broke, one way or another, with one scheme or another, somewhere down the line.

The sooner society drills the mantra into people that they are on their own when they make decisions AS AN ADULT, the better off everyone will be. Unfortunately, there is are a number of people who try relentlessly to convince us no one should be held accountable for their ADULT choices. One way or another, everyone who errs or suffers is a “victim” of some kind. This mentality, of course, debases REAL victims but as long as it makes the purveyors of this myth feel very good about themselves its doubtful anything will improve.

Talk a “moral hazard”.

 
 
Comment by Blano
2007-10-17 13:56:10

I took it that he would eventually sell the house for a huge profit and live off the proceeds in retirement. The lazy man’s way to riches.

Another baby boomer who will be a wage slave ’til he dies.

Comment by HARM
2007-10-17 14:26:56

Exactly. No one “forced’ Mr. Barney to cash in his retirment accounts to towards a down-payment and/or closing costs on an overpriced house. His retirement accounts were never garnished or “forfeit”. They were WILLINGLY used as collateral for an admittedly “ill-advised” gamble gone bad.

Too bad, so sad.

Comment by Gwynster
2007-10-17 15:02:06

Barney will be multiplied a million times over in CA. For most bommers here, their house was their only retirement fund.

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Comment by HARM
2007-10-17 13:52:37

“‘You’re always looking for some kind of edge that’s going to take you beyond what your competition is going to be,’ said Reba Haas, realtor.”

Yeah, like um, y’know… lowering your price, for instance.

 
Comment by c
2007-10-17 13:55:26

More good news: WAMU

 
Comment by Seattle Renter
2007-10-17 13:56:49

This last weekend I was driving around Edmonds, a suburb just north of Seattle. this is the kind of place that during the boom, sellers were innundated with offers before a for sale sign ever made it out on the lawn.

Cut to last weekend - Right on hwy99(the main drag in town so to speak) on the same corner, there were SIX for sales signs all crowded next to each other, and I counted another 3 or 4 withing a couple blocks.

“It’s different here.”

Comment by Seattle Renter
2007-10-17 14:02:15

Gawd - My typing is atrocious. Should be “within” not “withing”

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-17 14:53:47

Seeing the same thing down here in Olympia. New ‘for sale’ signs up everywhere, and more and more of the older signs have ‘price reduced’ or the cheerier sounding ‘new price’ add-on banners stuck on them now.

 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2007-10-17 14:00:20

A bit OT

This is a post from Roubini’s blog……..interesting.

Acrabbe,

Unfortunately, I cannot discuss any details with you. “client confidentiality”

What I can tell you is this, having spent the last 15 years running operation desks for banks, and overseeing and approving weekly cash movement totaling over $1t, it just comes down to this… I see very little change in the market. (Fixed Inc prices especially) I follow what our clients do very closely. …and likewise look out for the interests of our institution. In addition to seeing market activity, I see that income collection is nearly spot on with historic data. (in fact, with more securities registered then ever, in standard payments might be the best they’ve ever been.) I know that sounds hard to believe… but income collection is also part of the operations world. …and so is default tracking! (which has been grossly overrated) …oh and don’t get me started about derivative, futures, etc. (there is more of a balancing act going on then most realize.)

Last year, I became nervous about the market, so I started looking a little deeper. Reading NR became a “must”! The more I read, the more nervous I became. …but then I decided to start doing the math myself. …and the conclusions I came to don’t gel with what many people on this site talk about. In fact, more often then not, it just seems like most people are talking out of the A$$ES.

I compared my conclusions to the facts that I see every day. …and what I get is that the sky isn’t falling. Too much is “controlled”, to let this happen.

So think about it more. Is their really a “credit crunch”? Yes and no. Sure there’s more debt then ever… but this is nothing new.
If there was a run on the bank in 1951, the market would’ve crashed!
If there was a run on the bank in 1975, the market would’ve crashed!
If there was a run on the bank in 1982, the market would’ve crashed!
If there was a run on the bank in 1998, the market would’ve crashed!
If there was a run on the bank in 2051, the market would crash!

So why is 2007 any different? Because ratings agencies fell asleep for 4 years??? Because bad loans were written for 4 years??? It all comes down to perception. If there’s a flight from the market, there will be a problem. With the current level of debt, we are less insulated from absorbing losses. …but how serious is the “flight”? I don’t see it. I watched subscriptions outweigh redemptions even during those dog days of August. Net/net MORE MONEY GOES IN THEN COMES OUT!!! I SEE THE FACTS!

Why is that? Because the system is being set up this way. 401k’s are the absolute genius of Wall St. It’s blind income, that can’t be taken out!!! (eventually, when you turn 59, you can withdraw, but as population grows, so does the inflow.) Most people rarely even adjust theirs. They just assume their 2035RetFd PM’s are doing their jobs! …and those PM’s are in bed with the big guys!

*** Just some side notes… With fixed income securities, gains and losses can be calculated within a much greater degree of accuracy. Losses and potential losses don’t appear to be as large as some suspect. Sure if a $500m house goes bankrupt, and the Bank is left holding the note, there is even more reason that the bank might not be so hurt. The revenue on that house was only $4m per month. (It’s not like the Bank is out $500m!) Then, the house being sold at auction gets sold for $350m. Now that bank actually has $350m in its pocket, rather then the $4m monthly revenue stream. (it would’ve taken the bank until 2015 to collect $350m in monthly $4m payments!!!)

So how much did the bank lose on the $150m writedown??? “a bird in the hand, over 2 in the bush”. …in banking “m” = 000, so 500m = 500,000.00 ***

So this leads me back to my prior posts where I explain that “there’s something else going on here”! It’s all about sticking the “losses” in the right places. …but these are CALCULATED LOSSES. …and the right people know what the calculations are. …and they know where to stick them. Unfortunately, I can’t tell you who the targets are. That’s where the real game is.

That’s why I say, figure out what’s best for the big boys and our Gov’t, and you’ll be sitting pretty.

I hope I didn’t ramble too much?

Comment by Mo Money
2007-10-17 14:20:56

Ramble would be a good description of this guys posting, total baloney would be another.

Comment by Bloz
2007-10-17 20:02:56

Yep, he keeps getting his “then” and “than” and “there” and “their” mixed up.

 
 
Comment by easton
2007-10-17 22:46:06

Second attempt
What he should have said is 1/2 a dead rotten bird in one hand is not equal to a healthy hand in the other

He thinks its great they get 350 back on a 500 loan
Great except that they also had to pay for foreclosure and sit on and maintain the loan until the house sold.

They had to pay the taxes

They had to pay for the closing

Then they finally get their 350 and they have to put it back to work. Only the 500 was an ARM with a high interest rate. Now the rules have changed and they have to loan it out for a lower fixed rate.

They’ve lost 50-75% at least on their investment and he says that’s not so bad.

I agree with the part about figuring out whats best for the people in power. My guess is they want to stay in power and skim as much as they can while the skiming is good. The current prez hasn’t been able to declare himself king yet like Putin (you should watch recent Frontline edition on VPs attempt to create emperial presidency)so they will need another election.

My guess more rate cuts and higher inflation. More war. Higher oil prices. I’m in foreign currency and bonds, oil although I lightened up today, gold, one long shot, some low PE stocks that export and foreigners might like, and a reasonable dose of short positions on realestate after Citigroup talked them up. Full speed ahead

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-10-17 14:00:38

SEC now investigating Countywide CEO (Orange Man ),involving sales of stock .

Comment by palmetto
2007-10-17 14:22:14

Thanks, Housing Wizard. Music to my ears.

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-10-17 14:43:05

Finally!!!

 
Comment by Kim
2007-10-17 16:33:42

And it only took them all summer to catch on.

 
 
 
Comment by Joe Rentor
2007-10-17 14:07:19

This sounds like something that would be said on QVC.

Hey there’s a new idea, the House Shopping Network that actually sells houses. Item #23423D - A stucco McMansion available in your area. This normally list for 700-800K, but for a short time we are offering them at 20K below that. Call in now to get yours before our supply dwindles and we wont offer this again in your life time. We are only going to make these available for the rest of 2007, and then in 2008 we are probably going raise the price on them by 2%. Thats 20K put 2% next year for a whopping 35K+ of instant equity folks.

I actually own one of these and I have to say, with the Granite counters and wood flooring, it just screams “I’m successful”.

Phone lines are open, operators are standing by. Call now and we’ll make it more affordable with 360 easy payments.

/sarcasm

 
Comment by DonnyM
2007-10-17 14:51:08

I recieved this from my agent….

Selling a Home in Pierce County
Fighting the Buyer’s Market
By: Troy Toulou

Many homesellers are struggling this year with selling their home. Markets change and with the increasingly stricter lending choices, buyers are having a harder time qualifying for a home. This change in lending policy hurts homes priced below $250,000 in Pierce County more so than others. The challenge is making your home more attractive to buyers without compromising price.

We’re in what we call a buyer’s market. The available inventory of homes on the market is much higher than it was at this time last year. Lending is tight, but we’re finally starting to see things improve. Homes are starting to move a little faster and buyers are coming out in larger numbers. Some taking advantage of some great prices. –Troy Toulou, RE/MAX Properties - Puyallup.

Comment by MacAttack
2007-10-17 18:05:29

“This change in lending policy hurts homes priced below $250,000 in Pierce County more so than others.” WTF? Wouldn’t that be “below $417K?” Oh, maybe he means the fog-a-mirror loans.

 
 
Comment by deejayoh
2007-10-17 15:00:16

The Argus Observer from Oregon. “Two local real estate agents said the housing market in the area is either a buyer’s market or just a good opportunity for potential house hunters.”

or it’s neither. yup. I guess thats about all the options.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-10-17 15:42:51

Two local real estate agents, a nun and a cowboy walked into a bar..

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-10-17 15:03:50

I thought I just saw a PPT mouse clique, move.

Comment by housing hanky panky
2007-10-17 15:58:12

Bwhahahahaha………stop that aladinsane. :smile:

 
 
Comment by Salinasron
2007-10-17 16:21:16

“Katie Fellows’ 3,100-square-foot, five-bedroom home in Portland continues to sit on the market as it has for the past seven months, at an asking price of $499,000. ‘We had an open house in September, and three people came, but there were no real nibbles,’ she said. ‘Our listing expired and we relisted it, but nothing really happened then either.’”

“Up the street, five or six brand new empty homes also languish in the subdivision. ‘I’d hate to be a builder right now,’ she said.”

HAHHAHAHAHA Katie, and you say you’d hate to be a builder right now, take a good look as I’d hate to be the owner like you.

 
Comment by BubbleViewer
2007-10-17 18:04:37

“Rick Gorman gave up trying to sell an investment property in Rossmoor after failing to get a single offer in three months, even after dropping the price from $950,000 to $899,000. ‘We decided there was no sense in giving it away,’ said Gorman. ‘The real estate market will come back at some period. … (We’ll) wait it out.’”

Mr. Gorman, meet $90 per barrel oil. You will die waiting.

Comment by AndrewHac
2007-10-18 08:49:21

Quote:
#####
“even after dropping the price from $950,000 to $899,000. . ‘We decided there was no sense in giving it away…”

I sure hope this dude “Rick Gorman” will get laid-off, get sued by some one or some corporation, get arrested for some big violation of the law such that he will need some $200K to get him out of the mess, and then he will loose the house and all of the money he put into it. That will server him right.

This Piece of Human Excrement “Rick” believe that a measly $51,0000 reduced pricing out of a freaking $950,000.00 is a give-away. Give-away WHAT ? The definition of a give-away is you, as the person, give away something. Like for example: I give-away my car to my brother meaning I give the key to the car, the title of the car and that car now belongs to him. Giving-away something means you don’t own that thing anymore. How do you call giving-away something when you still have $899K in your hand ? (That is if he can get rid of that piece of crap with wood, curtain, carpet that he calls a HOUSE). Man I prayed fervently to God and the Deity that may something bad happened to this GUY. This “Rick” needs a good-ass-whipping lesson about life.

Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-10-18 09:51:11

You already got your wish. He is living the nightmare.

 
 
 
Comment by Seattle_Land
2007-10-17 18:32:48

Update for Oak Harbor, Washington (largest city on Whidbey Island): New construction house & condo listings: 68. Number with signed offers: 1 (one). Total number of house & condo listing in Oak Harbor area: 434.
68 new houses & condos is a high number for this small community and with only 1 sell = bloodbath for builders.

 
Comment by easton
2007-10-17 22:19:01

Looks like a game of musical chairs and everyone is getting nervous.

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1734528420071017

 
Comment by Portland Renter
2007-10-17 23:45:46

The Portland Metro MLS just released Septemeber figures and the inventory jumped to 8.6 months. October real time data is pointing to even slower sales yet and I expect inventory to be over 10 months.

This is getting really ugly really fast. The PNW is catching up quickly.

 
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