Is This The All-Time High For Home Prices?
One reader suggests that housing prices have hit an all-time high. “Here’s a topic for debate: IMHO, residential real estate may never again reach the same price heights, adjusted for inflation, as during this bubble. [Nominally speaking, of course they will; future inflation is a lock.]”
“Why? Even after the economy recovers from the inevitable depression, the demographics of an aging population combined with globalization pressures will conspire to cap prices for the rest of our lives.”
Another concurs, “Agree. I think this is a good topic because even the bears seem to be in a rush to buy homes. IMO, this will be a L-O-N-G slide down.”
“Based on the last downturn in CA, my parents’ house didn’t reach bubble price until around 2000, over TEN years. This time, I think it will be much, much worse.”
I understand that prices in Houston have never regained the levels of the oil/RE boom of the 80’s, adjusted for inflation. I agree with the opinion that age demographics will work against prices in the US, rather than drive prices higher, as many suggest.
Maybe the retired in this country will be renting from the poor fools that cannot get out of their mortgages because they are under water. We rent at looow prices in nice areas!
During the past 5 years in Santa Barbara, thousands of apartments have been built for senior citizens. It’s likely a trick the county did to keep the number of SFH down while giving the state an illusion that the county is meeting the state’s requirement in building enough new homes for population growth. If I were a retiree in CA, I wouldn’t pay over $1M for a fix upper when a brand new 2 bd apartment 5 minutes away from a beach only costs $1k to rent. If I were a retired home owner, I would take advantage of the once-in-a-life-time bubble and sell the home right away.
This is a great concept to try and analyize. If the realtors have been using the huge number of baby boomers retiring as one of the main reasons for house prices going up, what will happen in 10-15 years when they all start dying and all that inventory comes on the market?
No. Not even close. But a lot of us won’t be alive when it gets exceeded.
Ahhh, the Rothchilds are sitting in France laughing right about now.
Here’s data from one California county. As you can see, during the last boom-bust of the early 90s, real price rose then fell. But it has been NOTHING like what we’ve seen the past five years, when the real price has actually doubled. It is hard to see how prices can remain anywhere near these levels.
http://www.humboldt.edu/%7Eindexhum/realestate/real.GIF
I used to live in Humboldt county. Unemployment was running at about 20% & I believe it still does. Many young people leave the area, and it’s my understanding the population is declining.
“It is hard to see how prices can remain anywhere near these levels.”
I could get a little more optimistic about that prospect if we did not have a number of major US corporations (GM, Delta Airlines, etc) teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. And sorry to remind you all, but the dust has not really settled yet on some of the biggest corporate bankruptcies in US history (WorldCom, Enron, etc) not to mention the lingering effects of the .com bust. All this bad news has remained hidden from view in the recent past by the last manic thrust of the housing bubble.
GS,
Don’t forget the pension/SS crisis which, IMO, will be affected by all the MBSs in so many pension funds & retirement portfolios.
As mentioned before, as wealthier Boomers retire (and pass away), they are being replaced (in smaller numbers) by their poorer children and immigrants — all people who are less accustomed to pensions and stable jobs with raises, etc. The obvious trend in living standards seems to be down. They newer homebuyers will have less to spend on housing as they need to save more for retirement, job loss and medical bills. BTW, COST inflation is deflationary for housing, as we have less $$ to allocate to housing costs. I see wage deflation for a long time to come as well. Doest not bode well for housing prices. We may be the first generation in a long time where renting is actually more prudent than buying, especially in high-cost areas.
Really, there are A LOT of reasons to think things will be going down for a long, long time to come.
Wages and retirements will never reach the levels to sustain the costs of houses today. Those that got in early and refi’d to a lower rate during the last five years will be ok, the rest will have to find an area of lower costs. The problem with bay area housing and other CA housing is the two story house that will not work for tomorrows retirees who need wheel chair access to enter, exit and navigate the interior of the abode. All housing is not created and you cannot get the same price per sq. ft. that this buying frenzie has created. There are places where property will definitely slide to affordable levels and maybe these will be the retirement settlements of the future provided during the intrim these areas are not razed or turned into ghettos first.
Most older housing s not wheelchair “friendly” stairs are just the begining. For example, most homes built before…oh I wanna say 1991.. don’t have a wide enough door for a wheelchair to get into the bathroom.
Millions of homes built before 1990 also have significant aesbetos and tens of millions of Americans are expected to be killed by lung cancer because of that.
My sentiments exactly. I mentioned this some time ago in another thread. All of this overbuying of HUGE McMansions is WAY out of hand, and NONE of these people are thinking much into the future. I can see younger folks making this mistake…they think they are invincible anyway. But anyone in their 40s and up (maybe the 30-somethings, too) should be thinking about their future needs. These houses (AND the huge SUVs with the very high step-up) are not realistic for boomers quickly approaching retirement. Once that realization hits and they need to sell this stuff for smaller, they will be “stuck like Chuck”.
We really should be having more seminars on saving and modelling our lives for future needs than all this get-rich-quick crap.
I’m in my 50s. I rent here in CA, but I have a rental in VA…bought almost 7 years ago. Sure, I could leverage it to buy more property, but I am also thinking what would be in my best interest come retirement time. My current plan is to chop down that principle and have it paid off in 10 years, thus the rent proceeds will be added to my 401K, whatever Uncle Sam gives me in SS, plus retirement divorce settlement. THAT’S what they should be doing…making a viable plan for the future so they can live comfortably and will be a minimal burden on other membes of the family.
Hey Ben. Ever thought of doing a seminar?
BayQT~
There are and have always been seminars on responsible investing for the future and retirement…unfortunately that is not appealing to the “get-rich quick, with no work” crowd that flocks to the current fad seminars. I am shocked at how many of my fellow workers do not contribute to their 401K and take advantage of the pre-tax contributions or even IRAs. However, they are always looking at the next big screen T.V. and latest IPOD.
Couldn’t agree more. That (and HOAs, tiny lots and poor construction) is why I will buy an older, one-story home. I’m in my 30s, but even at this age, if you have kids, lots of laundry, etc. two-storys are miserable. We rent a two-story, and can’t wait to get out. We want to build our own modest home, designed to be wheelchair-friendly (wide doors, no steps, some lower counters, etc.) as well as energy efficient. We’d also like to build off-the-grid and have the lot/house double-plumbed so we could use grey water for irrigation and toilets (at least). I can’t understand why builders aren’t already building like this, it’s more expensive, but I thing soooo much better in the long-term.
My grandma turns 90 this summer. She is still in a 2 story house. I think just in the last few years she’d have been happier in a 1 story, but the first level of her current house meets her needs, so she’s not moving.
I don’t really know all that many old people in wheel chairs. I’m still going for a 2 story.
The aftermath of the bubble we have just experienced will be quite drawn out. As the depression proceeds, buyers will be fewer and fewer. At the same time, the supply of SFRs will grow and grow. It will take many years to work off the excess supply and prices will drop substantially as all this plays out. Will it be 25 years before we see the prices (even nominal prices) at bubble levels again? Or longer?
We will be again reminded that real estate is inherently illiquid!
It’s going to happen a lot faster than that!!!
OT: kingman daily minor today.arroyo vista subdivision of 37 homes opens.by 4pm sat 250 people had toured the furnished models. none of them made a purchase.clay england project manager was not suprized that hugh amount of visitors did not result in a signed contract. he said that in this industry it usally takes customers a few weeks to ponder whether or not to buy a house. $350,000 and up price for 1800-2500 sq ft in kingman!! there are only so many doctors here and they already own homes here.
No flippers around in Kingman trying to make a 100% profit in 6 months ?
yes, and 248 were speculators.
How can so many expensive homes sell in Kingman? There are no JOBS there - unless one commutes to Vegas or Flagstaff and that would take most of the day. I guess it is California specualtion - I see the same thing happening in Southern Oregon.
There’s was a Californian driven boom in Yuma. Peoples actions don’t make sense in a mania.
Obviously, they DIDN’T sell.
Not only have RE prices gone up about 15 or 20 years worth of appreciation in the last 5 years (6% per year is about normal) , the psychological damage will also be part of the mix. As we all know, new houses were marketed like new cars with the emphasis on the “price is the price” and it will only go up, so let’s focus on how low a payment we can get.
No money down, no equity except the guarantee that “RE never goes down”, barely able to make the payments, with no experience owning a home, will scar the collective consumer psyche badly.
Not only will they realize they were conned, who else will they trust. The stock market betrayed them in 2000, and in 2006 or 2007, real estate, their own home on terra firma that they thought they understood will betray them also, cutting deeply into the tendons, veins and nerves of all that it means to be American.
RE will ultimately end up being the most hated class of “investment. “
This is a very lucid statement. Its been said the RE boom is a direct result of stock market betrayal combined with Alan Greenspan’s cut of interest rates to a suicidal 1%. RE is the new .com but when the prices go into a death spiral because of massively overabundant inventory and inaffordability, what then shall we turn to? Where to invest our extra money? Rats we may just have to save it.
and obviously, the whole stock market lie was also a product of Alan Greenspan and company …
and saving money does not make much sense if real rates are negative - the FED knows this too and makes clever use of it so steer money into the stock and RE market instead of savings accounts.
“real estate, their own home on terra firma that they thought they understood will betray them also, cutting deeply into the tendons, veins and nerves of all that it means to be American.
Pat, the Mortician???
Great Description of the DEAD housing market!!
What happened to all the tour buses loaded with investors in a mood to buy any POS that had 4 walls still standing? Did bartenders suddenly run out of fresh capital? Say it isn’t so! Have the 20-somethings been disenfranchised? I’m pissed!! Keep the mania alive, for Christ’s sake!
New bumper sticker:
“Save the Bubble”
Added it to the list… we will vote soon. Maybe Ben can start a thead…
These are the ones I have so far:
Friends don’t let friends buy houses.
I’m rightside up. Are you?
Got equity?
We Rent!
Got condos?
Not underwater.
This car is not HELOCked.
Did the housing bubble pop yet?
(Shows picture of guy nervously looking out from under his bed…)
Buy low, rent high!
Feeling flipped out?
Did Your Flip Flop?”
Don’t blame me, I rent!
Don’t blame me I’m debt free.
Ben’s Army - thehousingbubbleblog.com
Revenge of the renters and the level-headed.
Are you houselocked?
Renting is cheaper.
The housing collapse of 2006.
Save the Bubble
I’ll take credit for one of these.
“Bubbles pop. They really do.”
For today, anyway…
That above is my favorite.
FB? Not me!
Melody, I like it!
good question, but I think it cannot be answered definitely.
One thing is different this time for sure: the inflation (CPI) numbers are seriously flawed and that may get even worse in the future.
In the Netherlands, real home prices (corrected for inflation) have increased more than 5-fold in many areas over the last 10-15 years.
We know from the ‘Herengracht index’ that the normal rise is around 0.75% yoy, which translates into a +/- 10% real rise (instead of the +/- 500% that was realised).
This exception from the norm is so big that it seems certain to me that the historical norm will no longer apply (back to the historical norm would be 80-85% price drop over here …). And the severely flawed CPI numbers are a big part of the explanation.
Home prices in Europe track the M3 money supply numbers relatively well (although over the last 10 years, home prices increased about 2x faster). I don’t expect any strong decrease in M3 (that would lead to a total collapse of the current banking system) so probably home prices will keep rising much faster than the official CPI (except for a brief correction maybe) until we get rid of central banking.
I’d compare it to Roger Maris’ home run record. It won’t get broken for a very long time and it will probably require that a future Alan Greenspan type once again employ steroids.
Human nature will not change. There probably will be a mania in excess of this one someday.
However, in our lifetimes, this one will have lasting impact. For example, Germany is still obsessed with price stability nearly a century after the 1920s inflation bankrupted them.
The next set of Fed governors and economists will all be severely chasted, advising to never repeat Greenspan’s easy money experiment. They will view the bust of 2007 like they think of the 1930s now. They will obsess over it. It will be a monument in the past that cannot be ignored.
I doubt that - just look at the lessons people like Bernanke and his fellows learned from the Great Depression: according to them, the only fault the FED made was that they didn’t print money fast enough. They are sure to make the same mistake on an even bigger scale next time; these people will never recognize that the problem is their system (FED and central banking) itself.
OT:
OCR had an article about the median index.
It wasn’t that interesting other than the article closes with…
“But even in the middle, homebuying is a strain. Jennifer Norton estimates they spend about half their monthly income on house payments and taxes. We wanted something in a family friendly areas, some place where we could feel safe… It was a little bit of a stretch, but we had to buckle down. We were afraid we’d miss the train.”
This is who gets the blame for the bubble. They committed themselves to $600K in debt afraid they were going to miss the train.
I don’t think they had ever been to a train station is that every couple of hours another train comes by.
Every generation seems to get scarred by some major event, often an economic one. Boomers lived through the years of mega-inflation and are always worried about inflation. Their depression era parents were scarred by the great depression and many have lived frugal lives, despite having the means to spend more. It’s hard to say exactly which age bracket will get most scarred by real estate’s explosion and potential implosion. But for every group that is affected, there are others which come along that can’t learn from history.
My own guess is that real estate prices will trend downwards in real terms for at least the next 10-20 years. During this period, as boomers age, I see prices for capes and ranches holding up better than colonials, with the exception of those that have first floor bedrooms. I’d look for a possible number of formal living rooms on first floors converted to bedrooms. And I’d also look for McMansions being converted to two family houses in some locales. I’m guessing that this is already happening illegally in places, where two families or an extended family share the cost of a single family home. This could allow more access to lower income types and drive down property values where this occurs.
My husband & I have speculated on what will happen to these super-sized mega-mcmansions once people get tired of paying the heat bills on 2 1/2 story “volume ceiling” entryways and “great rooms “. Those homes with those ridiculous walkways that overhang the entry areas are already out of style. Nothing like having to walk up some steep steps and then scoot your wheelchair along a little cat walk to get to your 2nd & 3rd bedrooms. What are they going to do with these white elephants in 20-30 years ? They are already hard to sell. We had guessed that they might be subdivided also, except for the problem that many of the areas that they are built in have pretty strict zoning in the subs. If you can’t have a car up on jacks in the driveway, you sure can’t make 2-3 family units out of these suckers….
I don’t think zoning laws will matter, since they all appear to have been nullified to accomodate the real estate bubble. Had they been enforced across the country, most of these bubble condos, townhouses, and tract developments could never have been built in the first place. Million dollar townhouses behind gas stations and in crack neighborhoods? No, local and state governments have deliberately ignored their own laws to milk this for all it’s worth. I think many, many politicians and civil “servants” may eventually be sued, or even prosecuted, for their participation in this ponzi scheme. They certainly need to be held accountable.
I’ll be Cassandra and super bearish… the REAL macroeconomic influences will come from Peak Oil and Global Warming — both will exponentially raise the ‘cost’ of everything from commuting from the burbs, heating and cooling those energy hogs, food costs in all ways from the input of energy in the growing to transporting that food thousands of miles. I could go on… regardless, there will be a redistribution of income to some of these ‘basics’… this all at a time when globalization and off shoring is rapidly lowering real income most quickly in the ‘middle classes’ that are the home buyers. No way possible for housing to EVER return to present levels in real adjusted $s. Some minor spikes are inevitable and some relative redistribution of ‘worth’ but in aggregate it’s on a down hill slope. A blog discussing Peak Oil.
My boo boo –sorry -. A blog discussing Peak Oil.
(Is there a preview function for this blog? )
See Wikipedia’s entry for peakniks and doomers under peak oil neologisms.
I would characterize myself as a mild peaknik.
Soom of the doomers are out there.
More and more bubbleniks here though
Some here dispute the Peak Oil hypothesis, but even if supplies last indefinitely, increasing demand will drive oil prices higher, to virtually the same effect: oil will cost considerably more in decades to come.
Even if you don’t believe in peak oil, peak natural gas is a fact. Proven domestic reserves for North America (both US and Can) at current rates of consumption will last for a mere 9 years.
http://tinyurl.com/proqu
There are plans in place to import liquified natural gas in specially equipped tankers docking at specially equipped ports, but the entire process will add substantially to the cost.
Also, more offshore reserves may be found, though demand will skyrocket as other reserves are depleted, causing new reserves in turn to be depleted more rapidly.
Either way you slice it, energy costs will be a lot higher a decade from now, and consequently the average standard of living will be lower than it is now.
I would expect that the speculators in Florida who are now economically under water will in a few decades time be literally under water.
Some posters here are a bit too quick to say, “Of course there will be future bubbles, and the price will get just out of hand,” or “The lesson people like Bernanke learned from the Great Depression was that the only fault the Fed made was that they didn’t print money fast enough.” I respectfully disagree for at least two reasons:
1) On statistical grounds (as expounded at length by Robert Shiller), this bubble has scored the all-time record level of real housing prices in the USA (relative to incomes or rents), going back for over 100 years to the dawn of the real estate industry. 100 year floods don’t typically happen more frequently than every 100 years or less…
2) Unlike the US in the 1930s or Japan in the early 2000s, when it was overwhelmingly clear that the economy was depressed, the Fed has managed to repeatedly goose asset prices every time they stumbled (Greenspan put) for 18 years running while maintaining a low inflation rate. This was largely made possible by the entry into the global labor pool of low-paid workers from two Asian economies with 1b or more population each (India and China), plus the steady drumbeat of technological advance (Japanese robotized manufacturing, petrol-fueled US agriculture, and a PC-based word processing revolution turning us all into part-time secretaries, etc). The opportunity to inflate asset price bubbles while keeping wage inflation under tight control was a once-per-millenium anomaly in the global economy of the late-20th century. By contrast, during the previous period (the 1970s) when housing and gold prices were soaring to similar levels to the current climate, the Fed could not turn a blind eye, as the feedback of the wealth effect into wage inflation and then consumer prices quickly showed up in headline (CPI) inflation figures.
GetStucco,
My thoughts exactly! Never before have governments been able to print money with such reckless abandon without hyperinflating. It’s highly unlikely such circumstances will ever occur again.
As Betamax said — regardless of Peak Oil, energy costs will increase.. a lot of the burb dwellers offset their commute time with the belief that lower purchase price was an equitable trade. This belief will change in the near future. Two hours a day commuting is like having a second job but once it starts to cost serious $ plus time then that commute will affect house prices equally seriously. I see no way that the burbs won’t drop precipitously in price. Then if demographics are considered ( us oldens are not going to drive much longer — yeah, we stay on the road far longer than is safe in Florida) then anyplace without a good public transit will be toast. Baby boomers, even with money, buying houses where they can’t easily buy groceries? Also the natural gas situation as Betamax mentioned is problematic — for example the Alberta Oil Sands are now going ”oops” since googles of BTUs of natural gas are being used to extract the oil — there are some proprietary processes that use the energy of the sands to extract oil but the cost of all that oil is largely dependant on the cost and availability of ‘cheaper’ and under-utilized energy………. You want gasoline then best not expect to have electricity or house heat at an affordable price.
Higher energy costs will make areas that are centralized more desireable, particularly if they have a suitable mass transit system.
I’ve lived in Florida where there was virtually no mass transit. Los Angeles is behind NY and Chicago but they are trying to catch up in this area. (Anybody here ever ridden Metrolink trains? They are actually pretty nice.)
Anyway, if Peak Oil does happen, I think this is going to make a lot of suburbs and exurbs undesireable.
I ride the Metrolink’s Orange County Line every time I have a court appearance in LA. What takes two hours plus on the clogged freeways (and you have to budget an extra half hour at least for contingencies) takes an hour and a quarter, even counting the 20-minute drive to the Santa Ana station. The Red Line subway goes straight from Union Station to the courthouse steps. LA actually has a better public transportation system than most people realize.
And yes, Metrolink kicks Amtrak’s slovenly slow arse. Those trains are clean, regular as a Metamucil user, and fast as a Jersey girl.
Just some musings:
1) How many think that the 2nd houses along the CA beaches and mountains will fall the hardest? If you can’t get to it in an hour or two you are wasting a lot of money.
2) Develpements with HOA fees should be in line for a hard fall too because there is no guarantee on how high these fees can go. As people bail out of these units, or they are foreclosed on or repo’d, who picks up the increase in fees? If the occupancy rate drops, does your unit insurance costs go up (i.e. fire,etd)?
3)As people age they can’t drive and need to be close to services; where do suppose the communities offering the needs of the elderly will rise? I don’t think that Uath,Texas, etc will want to foot the medical costs for new arrivals from CA.
4)The reasons some states like Florida, Texas, and Nevada have been successful in the past attracting retirees relates to inheritance taxes, property that can be protected in a BK, no state income tax, or warm weather. If there is no change in the latter, these states will still draw a sizable share of retirees.
1) Nope. There is always a market for these. The places that will fall hardest (as Ben has ably pointed out in recent posts) are areas like St. George UT where fundamental demand stemming from the local labor market plus vacation and retirement home demand cannot possibly provide enough buyers for all the vacant homes.
2) HOA fees rode the bubble up and they will ride the crash down. The pain of evaporating demand will be shared by HOAs and owners of record.
3) UT might actually be a relatively good bet for retirement. Where would you rather retire: In a state where there is a large number of ethically upright Mormon young folk willing and able to care for the elderly population, or in some hell-hole of a city (thinking about the midwest at the moment) where the retirement homes adversely select a lower-class ethically challenged labor pool (thinking now of the place where my grandmother unfortunately lived out her final days). I would put up with the quirks of Mormon culture in order to get treated with respect and dignity.
4) Whatever the advantages of the desert SW as a retirement destination, there is no avoiding the fact that speculation has led to a vast oversupply of housing in the middle of the desert.
Does #2 imply that a good future business might be in “hardscape”?
What quirks?
Neither of my wives knows what you’re talking about.
…but since there is no State Income tax in Texas, property tax is high and you will need to pay that as you age regardless of change in income, etc. I don’t think retirees get a free ride there. Tax wise it actually works out better for those earning a good current income.
OT. A recently published look at further crimes committed by the bozos behind the Fed Reserve system for those who wear “tin foil hats”. I guess I have to count myself as one nowadays. A must read and then pass along. Any attorney’s out there that can do a quick search to ascertain the validity of the case sited in the article would be appreciated.
http://rense.com/general70/cash.htm
Interesting article. The US broke the Constitution when it went off the gold standard. I sure wish we had our country back!!!
Uh, the constition doesn’t say we have to have a gold standard.
So I look a the class, and say “The worst decision the Supreme Court has ever made was when they ruled that it was, perversely, Constitutional for our money to NOT be made of silver and gold, even though the Constitution clearly requires that it SHALL be. With that one traitorous action by the Supreme Court, all of today’s economic troubles were born.
The Constitution established commodity monies, specifically, silver and gold coinage as the money of the United States.
Uh, the constition doesn’t say we have to have a gold standard. — You’re mincing words. Making coins is all congress has authority to regulate and authorize. All other powers are reserved to the states and to the people.
Melody, that’s not quite fair. Humans can find ways to create problems regardless of the money system. It is true that the supreme court let us down, but then name a human institution that hasn’t.
Article 1, section 9 prohibits the states from making anything but gold or silver coin legal tender. Nothing in the Constitution states that the federal government can’t “coin money” out of anything it wants — gold, silver, copper, dirt, or electrons.
It’s a hoax.
So is the entire Illumaniti conspiracy thing. A few hours on the Net will provide more than ample evidence, if you’re really interested in finding out.
The people who write these books are making a fortune. David Icke, one of the most insane of the bunch, is practically an icon among conspiracy fanatics.
The above os in reference to this:
“Comment by auger-inn
2006-03-26 10:55:38
OT. A recently published look at further crimes committed by the bozos behind the Fed Reserve system for those who wear “tin foil hats”. I guess I have to count myself as one nowadays. A must read and then pass along. Any attorney’s out there that can do a quick search to ascertain the validity of the case . . . .”
I don’t think they had ever been to a train station is that every couple of hours another train comes by.
Of course we reached the high peck at about Sept.2005. My guess is after the run down ,which will take 10 years in total to bottom ,then prices will start to go up again . I only say this because 10 years seems to be the bingo cycle number in Real Estate .
Japan is still sinking after 15 years. They believe 4 is an unlucky number… Maybe after 16 years (4×4) they’ll finally bottom out.
“My guess is after the run down ,which will take 10 years in total to bottom ,then prices will start to go up again ”
OK, so after a 10 year decline, prices begin to rise. How many years until they again reach Sept 2005 levels, adjusted for inflation? Most of us will not be around.
good question ………..no answer
CNN is on and the topics cover Benanke’s upcoming meeting next week and the idea of increased interest rates. And another topic is SUVs. Should be an interesting hour.
BayQT~
John Rutledge is speaking now….talking about interest rates, inventory. FYI….after next week, Bernanke’s next meeting is May 19th.
BayQT~
I am Mormon. I would rather go to UT, than somewhere where I wouldn’t trust people. St George is much closer to Las Vegas, than it is to SLC. So it may have some of the spillover from the Vegas bust. In the past it has mostly been a retirement haven and a small college town. Any big buildup is due for a good fall.
I also am native to SLC, althought working career in the CA hellhole.
Any discussion of how bad off we’ll all be in the future distopia should include the cost of our current (and seemingly indefinite) warmongering. Those fanatics we’re currently crushing in the ME will not forget to visit us with consequences for a long time to come. We’ll be paying for security for a century. It won’t be cheap.