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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Possible topic- What areas are still up?
NYC has record permits in 2007- is this the delayed reaction from the fact that there is more fraud here, or has illegal immigration kept NYC artificially inflated?
My guess is that the level of fraud could be so extensive that it will take much longer to work through the system.
Is Seattle still up, or is DOM expanding in leiu of dropping prices?
***One more- how many of you lurkers avoid posting because of the potential for having your posts revealed at a later date and used against you?
-Great site since Early ‘05- anyone remember http://www.thehousingbubble.blogspot.com?
Still up: Boulder, CO. Immediately surrounding areas are diving, and the best price-to-rent ratio I’ve seen in Boulder is 250.
that’s because Boulder is different, at least thats what this “RealTOR”/self described savant will tell you on his Boulder Housing Blog, http://boulderrealty.blogspot.com/
” … how many of you lurkers avoid posting because of the potential for having your posts revealed at a later date and used against you?”
Used against you? By whom?
Do I need more tin foil in my hat?
“By whom?”
Swarms of starving realtors.
According to Case-Shiller - NYC (the metro area at least) has been heading down now for quite some time.
http://macromarkets.com/csi_housing/MSA/new_york.asp
Seattle & Portland, and Charlotte seem to be still heading up. Charlotte hasn’t been nearly so bubbly as other areas - up only 45% in 10 years. Seattle’s up about 140% in the same time period.
Dallas and Denver are bouncing around. Phoenix looks the most interesting - looks about like a dead man’s foot. A reverse-phoenix, if you will. (Sorry Ben)
Pricing correction seems to be starting in the south and working its way north. California is definitely on the way down, Portland is flattening, and Seattle looks like it will flatten soon.
Well in my little neck of the woods sunnyside queens, there really is almost no lots to build on. The few small 4-6 unit condozes were built on vacant land thats been there for 20-30 years, some people used to buy a house with no back yard and buy the empty lot next door for the kids to play in.
So whats left tear downs, not many around here would you tear down well built 50 year old plaster walled homes to build a El-cheapo condoze? Plus most residential areas of queens has a 4 story limit in height.
But just down the road is Long island city and they have torn down lots of single story factories to build new high end condozes, And i suspect there will be a lot more down the road. Yes…. they even tore down the last ladies Bra manufacture on the east coast threw 100 people out of work, tore down a well kept beautiful 50’s styled building, and built a 2000 room self storage behemoth building.
Don’t you love the “luxury” condos at Queens Plaza. 500k to live in front of the subway tracks, next to the strip club, where they drop off the guys from Rykers Island.
“yeah, but it’s close to Manhattan.” But it ain’t Manhattan, so good luck with the sales.
DON’T WORRY, they will buy because all the open houses will be in the daytime and on weekends….and will have a master security guard ex-CIA disguised as a HUMBLE DOORMAN !!!!!!!!!
As mentioned, permits are up due to the upcoming expiration of a tax break. In many areas of the city, buildings that get foundations in and grandfather by July 1, 2008 pay little or no property tax for 15 years. Buildings that start after that data get socked.
Here in Maricopa county (AZ) the ISP of everyone who went to the website of ‘The New Times’ has been subpoenaed.
“Legal experts described the subpoena of New Times records and computer information as frightening, over-reaching and unconstitutional.
“It really is overbroad,” said Kenneth Fields, a retired Superior Court judge. “And it touches on privacy issues of a lot of people who cannot be the subject of a grand-jury investigation. This is potentially thousands of people.”
James Weinstein, professor of constitutional law at Arizona State University, called the subpoena “exquisitely overbroad” and “outrageous.”
Weinstein said he has never seen or heard anything like the subpoena, which orders New Times to produce computer records of every person who has visited the New Times Web site in the past four years.”
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/1019newtimes1019.html
I wonder what little financial tid-bits will be released today by corporations and the US after the stock market closes and right before the weekend?
“They” say that Dallas is still up too. I say BS. But this is interesting. There is no shortage of big egos here and ill gotten gains so the fact that some clown hasn’t “snapped this up” is very interesting. Could sickening greed finally have gone to far even here? Tax appraisal around 1M. Asking price: 15M. And it’s got Dallas’ No. 1 RE poodle on the case too looking for her 800K commission:
No taker on prime $15M Highland Park lot
Undeveloped parcel on Turtle Creek last belonged to Hunt
11:09 PM CDT on Thursday, October 18, 2007
By IAN McCANN / The Dallas Morning News
imccann@dallasnews.com
HIGHLAND PARK – Like the land itself, much of the history behind 4321 St. Johns Drive has been obscured over time.
JIM MAHONEY/DMN
The land at 4321 St. Johns Drive is one-of-a-kind, experts say, partly because it includes 700 feet of Turtle Creek Frontage. The vegetation is overgrown, cutting off easy access to the Turtle Creek bank. The red brick walk, reflecting pool and expanse of gardens are long gone. And the home that once stood there, noted for its beauty and its ties to Dallas’ and Highland Park’s elite, is visible only in old photographs and newspaper clippings.
But now, brush is being cleared and trees are being trimmed, opening up views of the creek and a nearby city park in one of North Texas’ most upscale communities.
The 1.77-acre tract, owned by the estate of sports magnate and philanthropist Lamar Hunt, has been on the market for about 3 ½ months. The asking price: $15 million.
Experts familiar with Park Cities real estate say that the property is one-of-a-kind, and not just for its price. It’s one of the few vacant tracts available for development in Highland Park, a town that’s been largely built out for decades.
“You can’t really put a price tag on that piece of property,” said Brenda Sandoz, an agent for Virginia Cook Realtors. “It’s going to be someone’s dream home – the value is going to be how much that buyer wants to pay for it.”
Dallas realestate is toast. It’s been strugling for several years now and is about to go off the cliff (an unbiased observer would probably say it already has).
I have heard the possibility President Bush will purchase the property for his residence after his term is over.
That’s addressed and debunked in the story.
Bush bought a huge ranch in Paraguary. I’d flee the country too if I were him.
Tx,
There is a whole lot of crying and wringing of hands because the HGTV Dreamhome 05 winner hasn’t been able to dump that moster in Tyler either. Talk about merrily drinking the coolaid while 2560 lb rock of TX taxes rolling down the hill right at you! The Cruz’s are now victims *snort**.
I’d take that place off their hands in a heartbeat.
For 250K
LOL yep, price it right and it will move. The Cruzs are just whining about not making millions - too bad, so sad.
The Cruzs were dopes for not unloading that turkey when they first won it. Nobody I repeat nobody who wins the dream house gets to live in it. Anybody with a brain knows that. They have to pay taxes on the value of the place when they won it, they are so screwed.
“I’d take that place off their hands in a heartbeat. For 250K”
And I’ll take the 2007 ski lodge off their hands for $250K. See? Problem solved.
combotechie,
If you are an executive or officer in a city or business, security interviews now ask you if you post on a blog.
Ask Mr. Whole Foods.
Ask Miss New Jersey.
This is a public forum, so anonymity does not exist- just ask the boys at Fort Meade.
That said, I am not afraid to speak the truth, but others may.
Blogging here from work would cost me my job within days. This is true for many gov, military and IB types.
I, too, could lose my job IF I used my company computer to blog on company time. But that has nothing to do with this blog in particular.
Their main complaint would be what I was doing, not what I was saying.
I take all kinds of precautions to stay anonymous. And Ben is kind enough to look the other way from time to time. I personally believe that tin foil hats offer any protection. I line my tin foil hat with plutonium.
Do it from a PDA.
Would having your own laptop and using your own phone connection and blogging during a break or lunch be punishable?
I doubt it. you are not using any of their equipment or phone lines and its your time…
This kind of crap is why I refuse to work for anyone else. I don’t know why people put up with it. As long as you’re getting the work done they pay you to do and aren’t disclosing any company secrets, what difference does it make what you do in your down time
Hey Txchick I agree…but this is the way lots of companies use mickey mouse things to fire you. aka:Misuse of company property.
Sorry if this is offensive but -
If a company uses mickey mouse things to fire you, it’s either one of two cases:
- You work for a crappy company, and would be better off working somewhere else anyway.
- You’re a crappy worker, and deserve to be fired.
in my experience is almost always #1 its a crappy company. I’ve never been fired for goofing off
Get a clue guys. The “average” American worker, which you guys love to bash as home buyers…. Is not a worker, and does do thing you would never think of.
I have worked for 2 large US based companies. Both allowed “reasonable use” of phones, computers, copiers for personal use. Want to read the paper on your lunch hour on-line fine. Make 200 flyers for your church pinic, call 90 year old granny across the country for a daily check in, etc…My guess is lots of companies have this policy ?
I’d say that’s pretty generous. IMO, you’ve worked for some very nice companies!
“The market has isolated the problem” in commercial paper - CNBC
Unfortunately it appears to be located in all paper issued since 2002.
Isolation does NOT mean, or even imply that the problem is small. It just means that you know where it starts, and where it ends (which, frankly, I think is still a lie, but whatever). If the “problem” paper is a majority of MTGs written in the past few years, we have a major, major problem.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/ABCP-liquidity-bank-asset-backed-commercial+paper-banking-terms-definition/index/a/14539
Sure, its also in commercial paper. In commercial debt, 75% is rated junk. This market is still coming to grips with ABCP, it has barely started with the CLO market yet.
Oil to 90, gold up, futures down and it was 20 years ago today:
http://tinyurl.com/yu82au
Topic Suggestion-
How about the delay tactics Wall Street hedgies, banks and funds are using as a means to delay repricing the toxic paper until AFTER they off load it. They’re playing hot potato with these securities, tag you’re it. Further to the point; Those holding the mortgage paper aren’t denying it. In fact the bulk of the denial is on Main Street, not Wall Street. When will the delusion house debtor juiced up on RE koolade sober up and admit defeat?
I’d actually like to hear if there are any arbitrage types lurking around what sorts of strategies you could concoct to arbitrage or short sell these things, sort of like the floorless convertibles and PIPEs of yesteryear.
Also, this really blows my mind. 600K for a condo in Calgary:
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/453341495.html
‘Now he tells us. Alan Greenspan has come out from behind the cloud of gas where he had hidden himself for the past couple of decades to say in public what he should have said years ago when it might have mattered.’
‘For years Greenspan confined his public utterances on the worsening housing bubble to polysyllabic imbecilities, never calling it a bubble, , preferring instead the word ‘froth.’ On his book publicity tour Greenspan tells the Financial Times that froth ‘was a euphemism for a bubble,’ explaining, in case we don’t get it, that ‘all the froth bubbles add up to an aggregate bubble.’
‘This guy is still a hokum-meister. First he writes in his book, ‘We were willing to chance that by cutting rates we might foster a bubble, an inflationary boom of some sort, which we would subsequently have to address. … It was a decision done right.’ But then the Wall Street Journal writes that ‘[Greenspan] attributes the housing boom to the end of communism, which he says unleashed hundreds of millions of workers on global markets, putting downward pressure on wages and prices, and thus on long-term interest rates.’ This is hardly better than dada economics. Sure, blame the speculation-driven housing debt on the late Boris Yeltsin.’
‘After having put the responsibility for the housing mess on the death of communism, Greenspan next takes on the colors of some sort of liberalism by declaring that ‘the benefits of broadened home ownership are worth the risk.’ In other words, without the bubble lower-income people would not have had a chance to own a home of their own. But did they really have such a chance?’
‘If they ‘bought’ their homes on such disadvantageous terms that they are unable to keep them, that is a fine kind of home ownership. Though the actual number is unknown, hundreds of thousands of lower-income families bought homes on a no-money-down basis through ruinous adjustable rate mortgages. It would be closer to the truth to say they did not buy these houses, but merely rented them at extortionate prices.’
‘None of this seems to bother Greenspan, who told an interviewer something to the effect that the bubble has been worth it because ‘Protection of property rights, so critical to a market economy, requires a critical mass of owners to sustain political support.’ Someone might want to tell Alan that his critical mass of owners is on the verge of vaporizing faster than the polar ice cap.’
and so are property rights.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/LAW/06/24/scotus.property/
Kelo v. City of New London, 545 U.S. 469 (2005)
While that was a regrettable case, it did open a lot of people’s eyes to the fact that eminent domain is mostly a state issue.
Since then, I would venture to say that most states have been forced to make property rights stronger, which is a good thing. Here in Illinois, legal experts said that the New London case probably couldn’t have happened, but the legislature strengthened the law anyway. When our “beloved” mayor Daley starts opening his mouth and talking about blight, we can rest assured that the city can be forced to prove blight (at no cost to the homeowner) before sending in the bulldozers at midnight.
“a critical mass of owners”
Who are the owners and who are the owned?
“If there are degrees of evil, it is hard to say who is the more contemptible: the brute who assumes the right to force the mind of others or the moral degenerate who grants to others the right to force his mind.”
John Galt
What is the chance that this Greenspan is actually as dumb as he sounds, was not the Master, but only the tool. Nothing he says makes clear logical sense. For a while, you can ponder the drivel and suspect genius veiled, but the simple explanation seems more probable.
My thoughts exactly. Well said.
‘This guy is still a hokum-meister.”
That one phrase pretty much sums up Greenspan. Nothing like telling it like it is.
‘It is a scene millions of Americans have been in — sitting next to a real estate agent at closing to sign the loan contract and other papers for a new home. Often, the buyer has spent months with the agent. And to hear agents tell it, they are indispensable guides through the hazardous home-buying terrain.’
‘How is it, then, that millions of borrowers took on toxic subprime mortgages that could cost them their homes? Why did their agents not warn them off? While much criticism has been leveled at subprime lenders and mortgage brokers, real estate agents have yet to receive their fair share of the blame for the subprime mess, says Shanna Smith, president of the National Fair Housing Alliance. ‘I think the greed factor works with agents as well as loan originators,’ she recently noted.’
Okay, I have to say it.
I am no rocket scientist.
I have a high school diploma…I’m an aerobic instructor for crying out loud but when a real estate agent sent me to shady lender,yes, I listened, and yes, it sounded awfully appealing, but even the aerobic instructor had enough brain cells to take personal responsibility and do the research.
I can’t stand the blame game.
The word ‘blame game’ is most often used by the ‘guilty’ in order to diminish their own responsibilities and to try and ridicule the people who are looking to hold people accountable for their actions and hope to avoid future debacles.
This is not a game.
This is about professional accountability.
But accountable to what degree?
I was not told I HAD to use this particular lender buy the agent. I was not even told what product to look into but, even if they did, as a “buyer” (especially something as expensive as this) it is my reponsibility to look at ALL eventualalities and let me tell you, it wasn’t hard to find all the pitfalls and I quickly became a HBB junkie.
I am by no means defending lenders, RE agents, flippers, speculators, builders….hell, we KNOW they are shady. My point is…….ah, hell, I’m not too sure what my point is!
But I do know that the masses that felt entitled got whipped in to the frenzy. They made a decision to ignore all the info out there that said it was screwy.
“While much criticism has been leveled at subprime lenders and mortgage brokers, real estate agents have yet to receive their fair share of the blame for the subprime mess, says Shanna Smith, president of the National Fair Housing Alliance. ‘I think the greed factor works with agents as well as loan originators,’ she recently noted.’
This is a good topic, IMHO. Frankly, I’m torn between this topic and the Greedspin topic.
But, OK, I’ll bite. First, I am not now, nor have I ever been, a real estate agent. I have taken the the Florida course in order to know more about the law and to get a handle on what it is the realtors know that I don’t, so as not to be at a disadvantage in future transactions.
But as to RE agents “having a hand in the subprime mess,” BS. Unless they were also the mortgage broker. I have no doubt that some RE agents steered their clients to mortgage brokers who were shady and didn’t do the right thing by the buyer. But the responsibility for the financing does not lie with the RE agent, at least not here in FLA. Securing financing is the buyer’s responsibility, if they want to buy property. I’ve always had my financing in place before approaching a RE agent, except for my first RE purchase, in which the agent did refer me to a broker, who did a good job. But once I was referred to the broker, the mortgage was between me and the broker and the RE agent had nothing to do with the qualification process, etc.
RE agents as a whole did not come up with all these exotic mortgage products. The RE agent’s responsiblity is to bring a buyer and seller together and sell a property. Period. It is not their place to counsel people for or against a particular mortgage product, although I’m sure some did.
The job of a RE agent is to sell property, period.
On a lighter note, about 15 years ago, while living So Flo, one of the local radio personalities played an audio clip of a fictional Coldwell Banker RE agent leaving phone messages on an answering machine of a homeowner, trying to get the listing on the house. The messages start out real phony-friendly, but as they progress (the homeowner isn’t returning the calls) the messages start to take on a frustrated and threatening tone. In the final message, the RE agent has gone completely mad and states that she is standing outside the home with a can of gasoline and some matches and will do some serious damage unless the homeowner picks up the phone and gives her the listing.
Real estate brokers should be required to get a signed, 18pt type acknowledgement from the buyer than they are out for themselves first and the buyer second, and will lie and screw them if they can.
A code of honesty is better than a code of ethics, because the latter has proven a sham.
I don’t imagine there’s anything wrong with the code of ethics that some solid enforcement can’t solve. But when was the last time a Realt-whor-e was disciplined by the NAR? Did it take a criminal conviction? Did they revoking the offender’s credentials? Even issue a public centure? NOTHING?
I remember when I was purchasing my first home, I bought a RTC forclosure that provided for up to 3 points concession at closing for my interest rate. My real estate agent recommended her mortgage broker. The broker put me into a loan with only 2.5 points. I left half a point on the table. I did not know it at the time that I could have bought down the interest rate and use the half point to my benefit. The real estate agent knew what the broker was doing and should have explained the benefits of using all 3 points offered by RTC at closing. She did not say a word even when she hand wrote the contract with the 2.5 points. Now I understand how loans work that both the mortgage broker and real estate agent screwed me by not providing me with the additional information to get the best loan. I will not be relying on the agent or broker to put me in the best rate for my situation.
“I will not be relying on the agent or broker to put me in the best rate for my situation.”
Exactly. A mortgage broker is perfectly capable of screwing a client without the help of a RE agent. I do agree, however, that there is a sort of symbiosis. RE agents do refer buyers to mortgage brokers much more these days.
Well we know Suzanne had a hand in it.
or on it
Did I say that?
if i’m selling something, potential customers had better know what they’re doing or, like it or not, they are gonna buy some of that something.
That’s sort of my point, joey. If I have a willing buyer, I’m not going to turn the business down. I’m in the stuff business, so I buy and sell stuff. Some of it antique, collectible or just useful. I will disclose all known defects. That’s it. From there, it is not my business to know if the buyer is maxed out on all his credit cards or tell him I think it is a foolish purchase or whatever. I’m not his mommy.
When selling my house FSBO, what am I supposed to say to a potential buyer beyond disclosing defects or legal issues I’m aware of, if any? Hey, you’re paying too much? That’s for him to decide.
When real estate agents push listings they tell the seller that one of the things they will do is only bring qualified buyers to the house . The main question is how does a realtor show homes without pre-qualifying the buyer ? So if the realtors showed borrowers property that they could not afford unless they committed fraud on the application ,than the realtor had a hand in sitting up the overbuying .
In addition , if realtors were selling real estate by giving future investment advice that was faulty ,than they had a hand in the mania . To say that realtors didn’t play a part in the lies and myths that kept the mania going is absurd .In fact ,it always starts out with the realtor pitching the benefits of home ownership/investment .Had realtors confined the properties to what the potential buyers could afford ,(as is their duty in showing property ) the market could not of gone off the charts and inflated like it did . Instead ,the realtors discovered that the mortgage lenders were pushing it, as well as the appraisers ,so likewise realtors kept pushing it .In every fraud transaction or cash back transaction there is a realtors involved .Funny how the realtors and Brokers never policed the agents or noticed the red flags of major increases in areas that were the result of fraud .
Also , many agent got into the game of double escrows that helped increase the price of real estate . Double escrows are fraud transactions in my view because there is a attempt to hide the original sales price from the final lender . In addition , nobody can tell me that real estate agents didn’t play their part in selling the concept of leverage and going on toxic loans and refinancing them down the road . Nobody can forget the talking points of the NAR and the CAR regarding the concepts of real estate always going up and one cannot afford not to buy .These faulty investment myths were a National campaign by the real estate industry ,so realtors played a big role . The market makers could never of done it without lenders and their crazy lending however .Builders played a big part in sitting up speculators and unqualified on faulty loans also .
i hate to say it, but unless a salesman does something illegal, like spit on a sidewalk or take a concealed kickback, they should not be held liable for using any other methods within their power to successfully sell something.
I don’t expect a salesman to pre-qualify me when i buy a stereo or a home .. i don’t expect them to ask me if i might better spend the money on something else.. nor do i need salespeople to assume the role of motherly guardians.
I don’t blame a salesman for expounding on the wonderful benefits of his product.. it’s got a thousand and one uses.. it’s the best thing since sliced bread.. and it’ll cure whatever ails ya. A competent person asks “Does it really?”
We are a nation of laws.. fraud, theft, coercion, conspiracy, etc. are defined according to the law. Our views really don’t matter.
Perhaps some laws will be added or changed due to these and past activities of NAR, but such cannot be applied retroactively in any case.
I agree in part to what you are saying because even the court system will allow a little bit of sales puff with selling . The REIC might very well be able to pass the buck on any liability they have in the run up ,but than again it depends on what the degree of involvement was in anything shady .There were alot of Codes of Ethics violations with this run-up with the realtors at the very least . Because the buyer was the one that signed the loan contract and loan documents it’s likely they are the most vunerable, along with their lender .
How about the more desireable areas of Montgomery County, Md, right outside DC? Other than the growing number of foreclosures, prices have been coming down very slowly. Rent a townhouse for $1600-$2000 or buy it for $350,000 -$500,000 (along with taxes of $3-5k and HOA fees). Prices are very sticky and properties in my area (20832) continue to sell — sometimes in days.
Watching and Waiting,
What are you waiting for? If prices are flat and some properties are selling in days, it sounds like a healthy market. Why don’t you buy?…sucker
hmmmmm……
The more “desirable” areas are usually the last to drop. Think about it–the remaining pool of buyers probably isn’t looking in desperation to buy some POS tract house in Frederick, Md. or Loudoun Co., Va. They’re going to want to be close in, in Bethesda, Rockville, or Falls Church. Do a bunch of reading here. In any city you look at, the more traditionally desirable areas are only just starting to drop, but historically, they have dropped in every bubble just like the outlying areas.
What will the Fed do?
A cut of 50 basis points or more — things are worse than generally believed, the Fed will bring in inflation to devalue debts, dollar and stock market crash.
No cut — things are bad and the Fed will not bail out debtors. Stock market crash.
A quarter point cut — stocks and the dollar still fall, on the assumptions that more cuts are coming.
Doesn’t seem like much of a choice, does it?
We’ve painted ourselves into a corner, financially…
What can they do? It’s a lose / lose situation.
If they cut rates, the dollar falls some more and foreigners sell US assets to prevent further exhange rate losses.
If they don’t cut rates, the dollar maybe steadies, but Wall Street sells off arguing the Fed is not doing enough to save the economy.
Cut 25 and pray for a miracle.
The conundrum has evolved into a dilemma.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dilemma
If the dollar falls too much and foriegn CBs stop funding our deficits by buying our Treasury Notes, we are in deep, deep shit.
Look at the dollar since the Feds cut the 50 BP.
Stop worrying about that. It has not happened over twenty years of worrying about that scenario, and hence it cannot happen.
I’d be interested in having a thread covering everyones background: profession, family, location, etc. Also, I’m curious as to military history - I know there’s at least several here who’ve been in the service, which branch, MOS, where stationed, years in, etc.
I like this idea, though can see why some people may not care to share this information. However, it’d certainly help to know exactly where people are coming from, and place some of their comments in context.
Of course, if you read here long enough you pick up these details about the regular posters anyhow.
Leighson, you commented on yesterday’s thread about Leslie Appleton-Young. You stated that
“She also spent several years working as a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.”
Well Stanley provided a CAR website highlighting her and her background. It stated that she was a Berkeley grad. As a Berkeley and went on the Alumni site for additional info. Guess what, she graduated in 1974. I remember those days, impeachment trials of the Nixon gang and the riots and marches on campus, on the street and “people’s park”. Can you imagine her with a head band and as a possible member of some socialist group such as SDS? It would be great if we could find something her background.
Just a wild thought.
Chuckles…she proudly displays this information on her page.
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzQzNTY=
Recession within 6 months or Goldilocks 2.0?
Good topic. I’d suggest maybe a spin though - are we currently in recession, that’s just not been announced yet or is hidden?
I’m seeing lots of layoffs around me, e.g. AOL just laid off another 2,000, and of course we’re all familiar with all the housing-related layoffs.
I think we’ve been in an uncalled recession for at least several months now, possibly most of this year. Of course, these things tend to be recognized only in retrospect.
I lost my job yesterday. Now it’s a depression. (seriously)
Pete, best of luck.
Agree. We’ve been in recession for much of this year, IMO.
Timing is hard to call but Goldilocks has left the country.
You might be right mfktMaven FL. Maybe we could be wrong and things won’t implode. We said no bailout ’cause 1/3 of house owned outright, a good portion or renters and owners with ARM loans. Prices here in DC area dropping FAST which will cause some buying, which ’causes more spending in economy. Globally there is deflation. Housing deflation can be good for economy. There might be lots more cheap oil. Read interesting article on 1/4 of mid east oil in Iraq. There is some airstrip outside Bagdad that is second only to Heathrow. That oil might be online soon.
Went to Solar Decatholon on the Mall today. 10 universities built energy efficient houses. The price for the smallish but nicely designed houses were $100K - $250K
I would like to see a thread on how to deal with bubble related issues in the people around you. How have you dealt with parents who think you should buy, coworkers who somehow “blame” you for the bubble, friends who think that house prices will go back up as soon as Bernake lowers rates, etc?
2 sisters own 5 houses between them. My 2 sisters.
no win situation, to discuss it now.
That beats anything I have to deal with.
Sort of the same here, except it is one sister with a huge house. “The market is fine!” End of conversation. No sense attracting anger.
Different with my mother, she sold her house “while she could” and is moving into an appartment with her nest egg intact. She figured this out just from the newspaper. When I say it is a nice time to rent, she smiles.
People either can read the signs, or you can’t talk to them about it.
With parents I would be obligated to tell them how I feel. Anyone else, only if they ask.
I try to tell my parents how I feel, but it only lasts for a 2 months or so before they bother me again about how I should buy a condo or townhouse.
My parents really aren’t the biggest problem. I have this one coworker who keeps saying its a great time to buy. When he says it, he sounds like he was hypnotized or brainwashed into saying it because it doesn’t sound natural when he says it. His wife is a real estate agent so you can see the problem.
Another coworker who lives in West Virginia (but we work in the greater DC area) is convinced (really under the delusion) that his house will be going back up as soon as Bernake lowers rates. He bought at the top of the bubble in 2005 because he got married. Before he was trying to sell the house to move closer to our office, but he doesn’t want to do that now since “prices will be going up again”.
Popper,
That co-worker, sounds like he not only thinks you should buy, but from his wife. Maybe you should offer to spot him a $20, since he is such a good friend.
Blue Skye,
You have no idea how right you are. I started my current job in the second half of 2005 right around the peak. My second day of work, that coworker with the real estate agent wife says that “I should buy a house” and gives me his wife’s business card. Even back then I was aware of the bubble so I didn’t. In the future when I buy needless to say I won’t be using that coworker’s wife services.
I get frustrated that I can’t SHARE in the excitement of more bad housing news everyday.. because no one around me will benefit from it except “renter” me..
It is hard to contain the excitement and not totally ostracize people.
I go around the house teaching my toddler to chant “the housing market it crashing” to the tune of “nah-na nah-na nah-na”
If you don’t contain the excitement, people will totally ostracize you.
Schnooks,
That’s exactly why we have the HBB! Thank God for Ben!!!!
Seriously, is there anywhere else where you can safely come and cheer on the bursting of the credit/housing bubble — and everyone is with you?
‘Seriously, is there anywhere else where you can safely come and cheer on the bursting of the credit/housing bubble — and everyone is with you?’
LMAO
Time to buy the dip? Just remember that the stock market always goes up in the long run, so a 200pt selloff is a great buying opportunity!
When Crash Means ‘Buy’
After Black Monday,
Advice to Invest on Dips;
‘The Great Moderation’
By JUSTIN LAHART
October 19, 2007; Page C1
The 1987 crash — 20 years ago today — had investors bracing for the worst. When the worst didn’t come, those who quickly recognized that the economy and the stock market were far more resilient than they had thought looked smart.
A little more than a year later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had made back all the ground it had lost, and anyone who bought in the aftermath of the crash could feel justifiably pleased.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119275163589664160.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_money_and_investing
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
How many more dips will reward Pavlov’s bulls before the next really big dip severely burns them?
Are stock investers superstitious creatures? At any rate, a 200 pt “Bleak Friday” selloff amounts to a 1.5 percent drop in the DJIA — small peanuts compared to the 20 percent drop on Black Monday.
October 19, 2007 1:59 P.M.ET
BULLETIN
On 20th anniversary of Black Monday — a bleak Friday
Bears get back in the groove
http://www.marketwatch.com/
3 percent is still small peanuts.
In this environment, only dips buy the dips.
Buttonwood
Paint it black
Oct 18th 2007
From The Economist print edition
The stockmarket crash of 1987 has lessons for today’s markets
TWENTY years ago, stockmarkets experienced a severe sell-off that scarred the memories of all involved. On October 19th 1987 a fall of nearly 23% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average dragged down share prices round the world, in the first financial crisis of the modern globalised era. The day was dubbed Black Monday.
Much discussion of the anniversary focuses on whether it could happen again. The answer is, of course, yes; though trying to guess when is not very useful. It is more fruitful to reflect on the three lessons of the crash.
http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9993586
Herbert Stein’s law will eventually govern the U.S. stock market once again: “That which can not go on forever won’t.”
The world economy
Lessons from the credit crunch
Oct 18th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Central banks have worked miracles for 30 years. Don’t count on that continuing
AFTER a sudden market panic, all is well. Prices dropped precipitately, but investors have come to see that the Federal Reserve, under its new chairman, will not let the economy slide. Normality has been restored.
That was 20 years ago. Black Monday, October 19th 1987, was the day stockmarkets plunged; and Alan Greenspan, who won his central-banking spurs in that crisis, was the Fed chairman (see article). Two decades on, in the wake of this summer’s subprime squeeze, stockmarkets are showing similar faith in Ben Bernanke, Mr Greenspan’s successor. Despite bad news from the housing market and warnings from the treasury secretary, America’s equity markets are still higher than they were in May. Amazingly, investors have been buying both on good news (don’t worry, the economy is fine) and on bad (don’t worry, the Fed will come to the rescue by cutting rates).
http://economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=9988758
“Interestingly, the money markets seem more worried about how the credit crunch may end than equity investors are.”
money markets = smart money
equity investors = Pavlov’s sheep
http://economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=9988758
Kewl!
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/S%26P+500-market+crash-Hindenburg+Omen-breadth-wide-divergence/index/a/14554
….that’s because Boulder is different, at least thats what this “RealTOR”/self described savant will tell you on his Boulder Housing Blog, http://boulderrealty.blogspot.com/
Self described savant? Boulder is different? Ah the old straw-man once again. Set it up and show the world how easy it is to knock it down. Clearly you haven’t been reading my blog Garrison.
Try again.
Boulder is different. Unlike most of Colorado, it is ugly and run down. It reminds me of Santa Ana, California, with a nice backdrop (the Flat Irons).
To be compared to Santa Ana is harsh, no matter who you are…
Topic — or some information I’d like to have. In terms of real estate, we are always given compairsons to last month, last year, etc. For all these big banks and lenders taking writedowns and losses, I’s like to see comparable profit/(loss) for the last quarter, last year, last 5 years. I bet that they’ve given back very little of their profits so far.