Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Auctions? “In another jolt to the downtown real estate market, a newly built, upscale condo complex on Boston’s waterfront is being foreclosed on by its lenders. The 11-story Harborview complex in the Charlestown Navy Yard is slated to be sold at auction Nov. 8, a move that comes after the upscale project opened with a thud this summer.”
“Amid a sluggish real estate market, the project ultimately failed to sell any units, prompting the development team to explore its options.”
“In the largest sell-off of its kind in Minnesota, more than 300 foreclosed homes across the state will go on the auction block this weekend. Minnesota Association of Realtors vice president Chris Galler said it’s the biggest auction he’s seen in his two decades in the business. Auctions normally dispose of a half-dozen to a dozen homes.”
“‘It’s a sign of the times,’ Galler said.”
An editorial? “The real estate bust may not have hit New York yet, but over the past two years more than 15,000 city residents have faced foreclosure actions that could throw them out of their homes. And this year, more than 14,000 more families are at risk, according to the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project.”
Odd purchasing rationals? “Condominiums, townhouses and hotel-condos have been sprouting up around Notre Dame, collectively feeding an investment of more than $200 million to the South Bend community, according to the South Bend Tribune. But a dismal football season and a stagnant housing market have caused some developers to scale back their plans around Notre Dame.”
“‘When we beat Penn State [in September of 2006], the very next day we sold 11 units,’ said ike Brenan, Waterford’s general manager and developer. ‘The following week in ‘06 was the Michigan game, we lost it. The following Sunday we had 10 appointments … and not one of them showed up. To say that our ownership base is fickle would be an understatement.’”
See overbuilding? “The demand for Murfreesboro builders seeking housing permits declined by 34.1 percent through September compared to the same period last year, according to city records. Although 990 houses or condos have been built or are still being constructed in this fast-growing city in 2007, the trend still concerns housing industry professionals.”
“‘The market is flooded,’ County Building Codes Director David H. Jones said.”
Or speculation? “Between 2003 and 2005, it couldn’t have been easier to sell real estate in Brunswick County, NC. Residents put signs in front of their property, and buyers, eager to have a place near the coast or looking to flip property for a quick profit, didn’t hesitate to snatch it up.”
“‘It started picking up in the early 2000s,’ said Alan Holden, president of the Brunswick County Association of Realtors.”
“The county saw the most sales in late 2003 and early 2004, and the boom continued through the first part of the following year. ‘Values escalated. It was a no-brainer that this was where to be,’ Holden said.”
More foreclosures? “Foreclosure filings and homes sold at sheriff’s sales are spiking in Northampton County. The number of properties in default, scheduled for a sheriff’s sale or repossessed by the bank more than doubled in Northampton County to 174 homes through the end of September, compared with last year.”
“‘I think this story has not even started to play out,’ said Bethlehem economist Kamran Afshar. ‘In other words, it is going to get worse before it gets better.’”
“‘Over the last three months, we have seen a 50 percent increase in the number of filings per week,’ said Jack Gross in Bethlehem, whose firm sells homes after banks or municipalities have repossessed the properties.”
Changes in employment? “The global credit crunch has had a knock-on effect in Norfolk, with a Wymondham company yesterday announcing redundancies in the wake of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.”
“Neil McLennan, operations manager at Direct Mortgage Answers, said redundancies had to be made to maintain the company’s strength. ‘Direct Mortgage Answers packages subprime mortgages from brokers throughout the UK. However, down to the problems in the subprime market and products being modified by lenders, the supply of such products has been restricted.’”
Or financial news? “Standard & Poor’s lowered ratings on about $22 billion of securities backed by first-lien subprime home loans because of rising delinquencies. The cut covers 1,413 classes of bonds from the fourth quarter of 2005 through the fourth quarter of 2006, the New York-based ratings company said today in a statement.”
“S&P two days ago lowered ratings on $23.4 billion of subprime and Alternative-A securities that were created as recently as June, its swiftest downgrade of mortgage bonds.”
Results of a poll? “Nearly one in four U.S. homeowners expect home prices to fall further in the coming year, as the protracted housing slowdown weighs on consumers’ outlook, according to a poll released on Friday.”
“‘There is no evidence that the deepening slump in home prices would end anytime soon,’ said Richard Curtin, director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.”
“Among homeowners polled in October, 29 percent reported their home value fell during the past year, a record high, compared with 26 percent in September.”
Falling prices? “No matter how you’re trying to sell a home in South Florida, it’s definitely taking longer to do it. There are approximately 115,000 units currently up for sale and prices are dropping ‘like a rock.’”
“Real estate experts say the sales prices are declining on average $40,000 in the last year.”
Gainesville, FL — The University Corners Disaster
University Corners, amid great controversy, took over a prime city block at University of Florida’s front door, destroying businesses and buildings with the promise of a beautiful new mixed used future. But this summer, their funding fell through. Now, the city fears they will be living with this urban blight for years to come.
Bonus–the graphic contains an RTS bus! Just like the ones I drive! Okay, I lied, I only drive that bus on overtime. *gg*
just goes to show that tearing stuff down before financing is assured is kinda dumb. I know someone who did that to a kitchen wall.. a large section remained open to the elements for almost a year… the lady of that house was less than pleased.
“Nearly one in four U.S. homeowners expect home prices to fall further in the coming year, as the protracted housing slowdown weighs on consumers’ outlook, according to a poll released on Friday.”
and the other three have been abducted by aliens.
25% is good progress. The recent news that the bust has reached the O.C. might just be good for another jump too. Like it or not, the O.C. is the heart of the popular culture universe of many people. Even my girlfriend understood the significance when I told her that prices in the O.C. were down almost 10%. Aside from Manahattan or West L.A. - that’s probably the highest exposure environment this bust can get. Things are speeding up nicely.
Oh, local observation - Chase told the aforementioned girlfriend that she could not refi her smallish HELOC this week because the apprasial didn’t come in high enough. She now has the fear of some diety in her. Scary thing is - she bought in 2002 an got a pretty fair deal even then.
Multiply the closing of her HELOC door by the multitudes of HELOCers who will also have the HELOC ATM door closed and imagine what effect this will have on the economy.
Interesting Times await.
About So. Cali–They are still building like crazy in Simi Valley. I was out there the past 2 days and saw 20 parked bulldozers in a neat line under signs that spewed names such as Honanian–Toll Bros. etc. May of the new subdivisions are just beig graded–so they’ve broken ground but no foundations yet. Jeeze. Lots of empty land in that area.
And the other 75% continue to believe Hank Paulson and Lawrence Yun.
I don’t think you will ever get close to 50% to believe house prices to fall further in the coming year. Denial is an undeniably powerful force.
I refuse to believe that.
The other 75% just refuse to admit it. Even to an anonymous poll.
Oh they believe it. They just do not want to spook others by answering truthfully.
Are San Diego home prices still supported by the strong jobs market?
Jobless rate still faltering in county
Employment related to housing most affected
By Dean Calbreath
STAFF WRITER
October 20, 2007
Job growth in San Diego County lagged behind the population growth rate in September, as the decline in the real estate industry continued to weigh down the local economy, according to a report yesterday by the California Employment Development Department.
With home-building plans stalled and sales continuing to falter, construction and real estate firms shed 1,000 jobs last month, which helped keep the unemployment rate at a three-year high.
“If it weren’t for the declines in construction and real estate, San Diego would be having a better growth rate than we did last year,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071020/news_1b20jobs.html
according to yesterday’s nytimes “escapes” ad masquerading as article, san diego is “the place” to vacation and buy a second home, with prices just right at $400K for a 1,000 condo, etc………:)
http://travel.nytimes.com/2007/10/19/travel/escapes/19sandiego.html
I guess Manhattan has not run out of greater fools?
the only 2 buyers mentioned of such exotic properties were from arizona and colorado — both allegedly to take advantage of the more moderate so cal clime.
gimme a break!
certainly not! today’s nytimes r/e section features the comeback of the once-wallflowered studio apts, some now selling for up to $2M (yes, M!) in the famous (and recently converted) plaza hotel.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/21/realestate/21cov.html?ref=realestate
OK, let me rephrase my comment. I guess Manhattan has not run out of greater fools who can get loans to make bad real estate investments?
this being manhattan, i wouldn’t be surprised if many of them are paying cash.
i meant, 1,000 sq. ft. condo.
huh? downtown san diego?? a VACATION home???
I can understand Manhattanites wanting a place in San Diego from November 1 to mid-April. But then, San Diego is great all year. Those who have a net worth of $5,000,000 could handle a $600,000 place in San Diego and a $600,000 place in New York - putting the rest in T-bills. The problem is the delusional middle class who think they should be able to lie about their incomes to live like the wealthy. Actually, it’s their problem, not ours. Where are the debtors prisons we heard rumors of being built?
wow, I would have thought there would be big cuts- only FL seems to be really showing the effects,so far
Scary thought: The population of SD is declining and job growth isn’t keeping up with population “growth”.
It appears that SD used home sellers are starting to come to terms with market reality. The median SFR list price, which was stuck at $599,000 as recently as April 6, 2007 (the last time I carefully checked) now stands at $542,000 — a drop of $57,000 over the course of just over six months. This is a 9.5 percent drop over half a year, which translates into an 18 percent annualized rate of decline.
I see a similar drop in the list price for SD county condos — the median fell from about $357,000 on April 28 to its current level of $332,000 (a drop of $25,000 or 7 percent) over half a year, or an annualized rate of decline of 13.5 percent.
I am guessing the listy-loos have pretty much left the SD County MLS, and those left are serious about some day selling their homes, although many will have to offer greater price reductions to accomplish this feat.
Give credit to the magic number 417000. When buyers can’t get mortgages, prices tend to mysteriously limbo below $521,000.
My local market - DEAD!
26 months of inventory
150-200 NOD’s per week
Monthly sales down 80% (from the peak)
Prices dropping
Crispy, Sacramento is right with you. Re-sale listings in Nov. ‘06 were about 15,000. We are on track to have 18,000 in Nov. ‘07. Sales are running about 1500/mon and dropping, so 12 plus months of inventory. About 35% of the inventory is bank owned, so the banks are starting to get it. Many are dropping prices to stimulate sales. The real time to buy is when prices drop below reproduction costs ($70/sf, plus $50,000 for the lot). Still a long way to go.
Jingle,
Locally, even though the sales are dismal at best in Yolo, the sales volume is about 30-35% over stated as a good portion of the sales listed on the SacBee sales database are actually just the transfer deed on the non judicals going back to the bank.
Davis it’s self is cratering nicely. Sales from 05 and 04 seem to be either S/S or just heading back to the lender. The volume of multi family units going REO is the comin’ to jeebus moment for folks here since preying on student via rents is as close as you get to religion in Davis.
And the wave of RE rich retirees which are going to flood the market with the prime Professor’s row homes is just starting.
“SacBee sales database are actually just the transfer deed on the non judicals going back to the bank.”
So true, yet ignored my the MSM. In a year they will discover this…
“Still a long way to go.”
Agree, yet all the local REIC just keeps saying “its a good time to buy”. Many are actually starting to lose their homes to foreclosure. I think they drank the kool-aid.
Also, I noticed 3 small real estate companies now have their offices listed for sale (they are going under). I guess it must be a good time to sell too
“…yet all the local REIC just keeps saying “its a good time to buy”. Many are actually starting to lose their homes to foreclosure. I think they drank the kool-aid.”
Which is why they profess it’s a great time to buy…so they can sell those alligators! Realtwhores are holding the bag on a large percentage of the flips which languishing on the market at absurd prices. I despise these creeps.
–
Crispy, Tehachapi is following the city with 26+ months of inventory.
Jas
Here in Sarasota-A condo I sold in late 2003 for $91K is now back on the market for $89K. I estimate that the new owner put $3K in improvments.
Here in Sarasota-A condo I sold in late 2003 for $91K is now back on the market for $89K. I estimate that the new owner put $3K in improvments.
Wow! Instant equity…lol
I posted this earlier, but my neighbor moved out about 3 weeks ago bragging that her townhome sold for 1.2M. Apparently the sale didn’t go through, because it’s still on the market, and the list price is now 999K. Of course, one just like it sold for 750K back when we were pretty deep in bubble territory, so the price is still inflated.
What’s $201,000 between friends?
By the way, if you type in housing bubble on youtube, there are so many videos of for sale sign after for sale sign in IE neighborhoods, it’s unreal. Also, some videos comparing this to the Depression. You can’t find any of this on TV, I’m not sure what the point of TV is, anymore.
‘for sale sign after for sale sign in IE neighborhoods, it’s unreal.’
At what point do people there and everywhere else start collectively concluding that real estate ain’t gonna be a great investment until prices come back to Earth? Thank goodness for this blog and the repetitive news that all is not OK and maybe it would be a wise thing to prepare for a storm.
I’m looking at Mid\upper-level properties (1-2 acre minmum lots,2-3K sf) North Shore Mass. I communicate regularly with several realtors. I have several properties on my radar and keep hearing from the realtors “We’ve got multiple buyers for the property but they have to sell their home first”. I chuckle and they they always seem to recall that I am renting and have 20% down. The problem is not that the properties aren’t real nice it’s that the contingent potential buyers properties are way over priced. There are a ton of people who are priced in to their current home for a long long time.
“the way, if you type in housing bubble on youtube, there are so many videos of for sale sign after for sale sign in IE neighborhoods”
THe IE is in the RE toilet-has been all year but that reported -10/-11% YOY decline for Riverside/SanBernardino was the paul revere ride which rang the alarm bells for the ave ignorant Joe6pac in Scal. Ditto for the OC -9.5% YOY.
LA will get the alarm sirens going whem we reach negative yoy of -5% or more maybe by end of year. Still way too much ignorance among the general public here as to the reality of the RE bubble collapse. 95% of LA residences get their info from cable TV, local newsrag or talking to friends relatives: all these sources absolutely ignorant about basic RE economics and do not even know that LA RE prices fell average 25-40% in 1990-1997(absolute, not nomimal inflation-adjusted).
“LA RE prices fell average 25-40% in 1990-1997(absolute, not nomimal inflation-adjusted).”
The scary thing is that back then people could afford to wait it out. Now many of those underwater people will be forced to sell at a loss.
I’m not sure what the point of TV is, anymore.
TV programming is commercialism for the masses.. punctuated by TV commercials.
I still think the countryside and cities would look better if we only put signs on the houses not for sale, because right now it’s just a sea of signs as you drive.
TV’s still good for watching slow motion train wrecks like “The Britney Chronicles”. Ahhhh . . . whatshedondistime . . . .
Reort from Long beach CA 90810 zip
It is DEAD DEAD DEAD! No one is buying and sellers not reducing prices. Market here is frozen! One large house two blocks from me has just sat there all year with a sale sign, empty but not a boarded up REO. Another home a block fron me is a REO large corner unit on delta ave /234th st abd it is starting to deteriorate from lack of maintenance.
Reality still has not hit the Long beach/LA area-only when the MSM reports an actual -10% YOY decline in LA county OVERALL will panic start. IN mY estimation half of LA zips are at least -10% YOY negative though Dtaquick has not come put with the Sept charts. The inner LA crapzones-there are a lot of them- will start declining rapidly as the fraud gets flushed out the system.
I had a friend who bought a foreclosed condo back during the last crash. When she went to sell to move to another area, she couldn’t get even close to what she paid, even though it was a foreclosure. She finally rented it out and then rented another place where she wanted to be. That’s why buying any properties, foreclosed or otherwise, is going to be a bad investment until these prices tank.
Dane County Wisconsin - local banks admit realestate is slowing down.
http://tinyurl.com/2cwc9e
Purchase your foreclosure bargain:
http://tinyurl.com/2avqnl
Being advertised as a “short sale.” I’m tempted to drive by and see what’s in the driveway - this was purchased a few short years ago for only $165,000.
i didnt see a driveway.. is there a garage in back?
6 years old and still lots of sheetrock (photo 7 of 9).. i dunno what’s up with that.
That builder did some strange models - some with the garages in back. It was great three years ago as part of the “buy now” model, but it seems really bad for resale.
Don’t know about the sheetrock either, but still don’t think they have 40K worth of sheetrock!
The sheetrock is the half finished basement. Thats probably what the equity loan was for (before they bought the matching snowmobiles instead).
Alan
Look at this flip:
http://tinyurl.com/2dnwnk
It was bought for $1,175,000 in March of this year. Apparently the word hasn’t gotten out in these parts yet.
Must be a subscriber, so a useless link.
Ridiculous wishing prices doesn’t mean that the word is not out. It’s just that the sellers are stubborn and greedy with false hopes until the sheriff shows up.
bugmenot.com is your friend- try the Firefox plugin too!
s of Dc in N VA- no gov workers laid off yet, or since 1913. Steady at 12% off peak ,but some close in foreclosures and short sales. How do they appear ? can RE agents hide them? Will appraisers have to ignore them to get the job ?
…and then you have idiots like this person that are asking way too much:
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/rfs/454054416.html
my eyes, my eyes!
OK, that person is a ‘tard, as i found this place down the street for only a little bit more, and it’s much, much nicer. Still, way over priced, and I wouldn’t pay more than $450k for it:
http://tinyurl.com/22aulg
This is a little bit farther away from 66 and closer to the toll rd, but it’s also much nicer:
http://tinyurl.com/2ozyx4
Every county in Northern Virginia (and the whole region) had sales volumes at a 10-year low in September. This week I noticed a lot of price drops in Arlington.
About six weeks ago, the real estate genius ladies (Haggerty and Razzi) at the Washington Post let fly an article saying Arlington was buzzing upward again. It was so ridiculous. After that, I noticed a ton of new listings with much higher asking prices. Now they’re being discounted.
Arlington Price Reductions
Clayton Homes CEO (manufactured housing subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway) says default rates on subprime will be closer to 40% than 20%:
http://tinyurl.com/32me7y
“He believes the situation will be worse than most people think.
“People are underestimating how bad it is out there,” Clayton said. “The problem will be around longer than people think.”
He pointed to so-called “teaser rates” on loans as a culprit and said they should be outlawed while predicting a national loan default rate closer to 40 percent than 20 percent.”
Pensacola, Florida
Missprice!
Bayou Texar is one of the most prestigous areas of the city which has a quite a handful of homes and lots (teardowns) for sale. This past week I noticed that $799,000 can get you either:
a. Very nice, well maintained 3,556 sqft. waterfront brick home on a deep 0.88 acre lot built in 1957.
or
b. Waterfront 0.66 acre cleared lot
I don’t see any material difference in the location as properties are located within ten houses of each other on the same side of the bayou.
Also the white 1950’s waterfront concrete block house on a 1.3 acre lot that I reported some months back which was for sale for $1.45 million has been sold and divided into two parcels. One of the parcels (approximately .5 acres waterfront) is listed for sale at $895,000. Don’t know what the status is of the other lot. Undivided that was an awesome property and I loved the house although overpriced by about $0.5 million IMO.
Oh, bogus! That was a wonderful property. Say it ain’t so!
Looks like they priced the sub-lot above comps, though.
My local observations: new construction (high end) houses going up for rent after failure to sell. Some of these are bleeding money, but others are probably telling themselves “the market will be better next year”.
http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwc/apa/451761250.html
http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwc/apa/448140747.html
http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwc/apa/450689175.html
Just ouch:
Property also For Sale $799,000 (that’s $4400/month)
$3400 / month rent but “RENTAL RATE MAY BE NEGOTIATIABLE!!”
It seems to get back to the fact that people who can afford $3400 a month probably aren’t the type to be renting.
people who can afford $3400 a month probably aren’t the type to be renting.
I disagree. There are lots of people in the Chicago area that can easily afford $3400 a month and yet prefer to rent. Those people, however, are not normally interested in renting McMansions in the burbs.
The apartment building down the street from me that finished construction about 6 months ago has 4 penthouses on the top 2 floors (I think it’s a 45 floor building) with the cheapest rent being $4000 a month. These units were the first ones in the building to be rented. Of course, these units have absolutely amazing views of the Chicago River “canyon” out to the lake and have anything you could possibly need within easy walking distance (including jobs, hundreds of thousands of jobs - the Chicago Loop).
Until the F.I.R.E. jobs go. Chicago is not Manhattan - nor is it San Francisco. Whenever Chicagoans think they can hang with the coasts it boils my blood. If the coasts are hurting - which they are - Chicago will be toast. Believe it! (Disclaimer: I’ve lived in Chicago all my life - and no one here seems to want to remember the 70s)
John,
I moved to Chicago from Philadelphia in 1978. I was amazed at the number of decent paying jobs available here.
I believe you are thinking of 1981-83 when the mills were closing and those great union jobs were drying up.
I have turned down repeated offers to move to NYC or Washington, DC Chicago is still good to me.
Jay
Hello Jay,
Chicago has been great to me and my family too - job wise. But unaffordable housing is not helping the city to compete. Chicago must now fend off other cities - many with much lower taxes, and a whole range of other advantages. Yes, Chicago does have its own set of advantages - but taken in sum they are not a guarantee that fickle employers in finance, insurance, and real estate will stay here.
We need prices to come down as much as any other city - and we’ll likely see that - because its not different here. In terms of taxes especially this could become problematic. Newer cities are simply not saddled with our committments to huge pension funds, union contracts, etc. And those same cities are coming after our jobs like never before.
Edgewaterjohn-
What about the 90’s? Chicago went flat for the late 80’s through the 90’s, but Boston collapsed and CA had the horrid 20-50% losses in the 90’s. How can you say Chicago cannot hang with the coasts? I think Chicago actually will hold better (but still painful in the big picture).
–
An Air Force guy (Edwards) bought a brand new KB home in town at a bargain price of $109/sqft in March 2007. He just sold it (still in escrow) and he would make $6K after the fees. Why did he sell? Because he became convinced that prices are going to fall!
So, even bargain hunters are bailing out. All the auction buyers of today might be trying to bail out next year! Can you spell S-U-P-P-L-Y?
Jas
–
BTW, KBH sold the home at the bargain price after it had fallen thru the sale 3 times. So, you can call it was a distress sale. Had the guy paid the original list price he would have a 15% loss.
Jas
Raw land still selling for ridiculous prices in the Puget Sound area. Builders/developers don’t seem to get it. They’ll go ahead and pay $300k or more for raw acreage when rural properties on the same size lots are languishing on the market for around the same price. The overbuilding here is as obscene as anywhere. Speculators have got to be burning cash at an alarming rate as inventories are growing to absurd levels. The shants pitting is just beginning.
What amazes me is that banks are still giving these guys money?! Do any lenders even watch CNN? How can they NOT aware of the risk involved in lending for a housing development or spec homes?
Here in Pullman, some “investor” from Portland (Mike Morgan) is buying up lots on margin for an “executive lease to own” scheme. The plan is to build high end luxury homes, lease them at an above market rate (but still not enough to cover carry costs) to visiting excutives who want a buy option.
So how the heck do you make money? On the renters that DON’T buy the house after the lease period ends. If they walk away from the buy option, then you flip the house back on the market and clean up on appreciation!
Basically, this is just a highly leveraged, high volume flipping scheme. And this moron is buying up lots JUST as the market has ground to a screaching halt.
Back to my main point: Some lender is even more of a moron, lending money for a hair-brained scheme that anyone with half a brain could see is fatally flawed.
It is truly mind boggling. I have no idea what these bankers and builders are thinking. I never knew wishful thinking counted as a business plan, let alone in the face of overwhelming evidence of an absolute meltdown in property values. Boy is this ever weird.
I would not be surprised if they are blinded by the prospect of high returns. Any employee who would dare state the obvious (the king has no clothes) may not fare well… This will end, but it will take longer for this message to get drilled into the thick skulls of some of the corporate VP’s running these organizations. In the larger organizations I have worked at the VP’s run their divisions like demi-gods, apparently with little oversite and absolute authority to hire / fire …
Just walked past my local Seattle auto broker. The garage was overflowing with luxury vehicles, many were 2006. Looks like a sign of things to come in Seattle as the overextended start to dump their toys.
I have some news from North Orange County. I currently live and work in brea. I want a house there, now there is some serious cool aid in brea but even it is begining to evaporate. Recently on my block of of homes a home sold from 460, considering most of the other homes are listed for or above 500 that is a sizeable drop. However the same week on realtor.com 2 homes now came up under 460,000 in brea.
This makes me very happy. Hopefully when they drop another 100,000 I can buy a house.
–
Why such a hurry? Would another 200,000, or 300,000, hurt?
Be cool like a cucumber.
Jas
In Mecklenburg and Gaston county NC it’s hard for me to shake the feeling that there are more FOR SALE signs than there were in the summer. I’ve also soon a few ‘Auction’ and ‘Reduced’ signs in the mix.
I don’t think it’s a market in distress, but it seems slower. There are more homes available in my subdivision than there were this last year, although not as many as in 2004.
In the Asheville and surrounding areas there are always so many for sale signs its hard to tell if there are more… but on Craiglist there are several “creative financing” posts like this one:
http://asheville.craigslist.org/rfs/455037889.html
Sorry, Should have quoted:
Lot #256 on Honey Locust Drive in High Vista near Asheville and Hendersonville, N.C.. Build your permanent residence or retirement home here! Truly a fabulous place and good lots are getting hard to find as recent building activity has been high. This lot is .80 acres in size. Please see the links below and become familiar with High Vista. I will be happy to try to answer any questions you may have. I will consider owner financing at a 7.75% prime interest rate (with interest only payments) for 3 years with 20% down.
Ol’Bubba went to contract on a house in Charlotte this week. I’ve been looking since May, and I agree with Mozo Maz’s comments about the market.
Back in May and June, houses that were in good condition and priced correctly went under contract within a week. By July, those houses took a month before they went under contract.
Things definitely slowed down in August. By September, I noticed the price cuts were starting to begin.
I’m anticipating that I’ll catch some flack on this board for buying a house now, but I didn’t make an investment - I bought a place to live. Yes, I understand there’s a sh!tstorm coming, but there comes a point where you need to get on with your life. My monthly housing cost will be about the same as my current rent, but I’ll have more space and nicer space.
I researched the sales history on the home and it shows an annualized price appreciation rate of just below 3% since it was new in 1990. The sellers are moving because of a job transfer, and they’re not making a dime on the deal.
I’m happy with my choice. I bought a 2000 sqft home in good condition with a new kitchen and a nice yard for under $90 per square foot.
Ol Bubba,
Sometimes you have to make that decision. Made it ourselves last year and moved to Austin area from NorCal. Small flock of kids, and college in the near future. For a variety of reasons too long to list, I still work in CA, and we are happy with our choices and doing well.
As you said, “I bought a place to live.” That’s what it is for awhile, and then it becomes your home. Short term, both our decisions are probably bad investments, long term , we all die anyway, might as well be at home.
Nothing wrong with that Ol’ Bubba. Good luck to you. There are some haters who will chastise anyone purchasing right now, but as long as the price works for you, enjoy your home!
Here in Portland, Oregon where bubble talk was blasphemy, the glaciers are melting. I am seeing this new creative attempts at sale by owners - auction. Portlanders also seem to like FSBO.
This from Lake Oswego {The La Jolla of Portland}:
http://portland.craigslist.org/clc/rfs/454528576.html
————————————————————————————————–
1502 Country Club Road, Lake Oswego, OR 97034
AUCTION ~ OCTOBER 21st, 2007, Open House Sat & Sun, October 20th & 21st
12:00 - 2:00 p.m.
Home To Be Sold to Highest Reasonable Offer on Sunday, October 21st at 5:00 p.m.
Starting Bid $395,000
Purchase Appraisal of $520,000 on Aug 7th, 2007 and Inspection Report available at the Open House - Call Karen at 971-998-4722 for more info
Newly painted interior! Beautiful 3 bedroom, 3 full baths, 2700 total sf home/office on a 26k sf lot that backs up to Lake Oswego Country Club. Zoning is R10, lot is potentially dividable. This home is in good condition, definately NOT a fixer! Hurry, this one won’t last!
Just down the street from Uplands Elementary, Forest Hills Elementary, Lake Oswego Jr. High and Lake Oswego High School. This home features an open front room w/ vaulted ceilings, an updated kitchen with stainless appliances, fireplace, washer & dryer included, new carpet and a private entrance to a home office. Many new windows and sliders, new tiered decking off the master and main floors, this home backs to the golf course.
————————————————————————————————–
This from Beaverton
http://portland.craigslist.org/wsc/rfs/454529540.html
————————————————————————————————–
$199500 TODAY to sell for $97,400 below price(Bidding & inspection TODAY & SUN
Reply to: hous-454529540@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-10-20, 9:00AM PDT
AUCTION TODAY to sell for $97,400 below price(Bidding & inspection TODAY & SUN from 12PM to 5PM
Home owner offers to sell for $97,400 below market price
Beaverton ‑ “Different” tells the sales strategy of 1 eager home owner.
Recently listed. Mark Bordcosh plans to sell the “Beaverton Town House” to the highest bidder on Sunday, October 21st.
In order to lure potential buyers and investors, Bordcosh is asking $97,400 below market price. How did he calculate the discount? “I am not using a broker or paying a 6% commission,” says Bordcosh. “Usually the savings or $17,814 in this case, would go into the seller’s pocket. Instead, to sell quickly, I am cutting the asking price the entire $17,814 plus an additional $79,586 for buyer incentive”
Bordcosh says that, the home must sell fast. “If the home was listed with a broker, it would take months. And then the final selling price would traditionally be 5% below the listed price.
Therefore, I reduced the price. Bordcosh is asking $199,500 but admits he expects to get more. “I know the house is worth far more than I am asking.
I believe the free market will dictate the true value. The only homes I found more attractive or more appealing here in Beaverton are listed for $350,000 and up.
The 2006-2007 newly remodeled bright and spacious home features 2 bedrooms plus Loft, 2.5 bathrooms, Landscaped Patio, gas fireplace, 2 car garage(oversized). and more.
Inspection and Bidding is October 20th and 21st, from 12:00 PM to 5:00 PM each day.
The home will be sold Sunday for the highest reasonable offer.
To view property photos, directions to the auction and home comparisons please go to the property web site at http://www.1281auction.com/ to watch my video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZBhPuTLE4g or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBYzvJeor6Q
For further information, contact
Mark Bordcosh at 503-933-6668
—————————————————————————————————
I have your Maui real estate report here.
Number of sales in September was roughly the same as last year. But the average selling price is off 15%. I have noticed more of a quiet desperation starting to take over. Tourism (our bread and butter) is off 4%. From now until December is our slow time but friends in the hotel reservation said bookings are off 30% for the upcoming season.
On another note a friend is attempting to hide assets. He bought a plot of land to subdivide and wound up illegaly filling up a gulch with construction waste. Now 4 of the multi-million dollar houses he built here are falling down. Soon the lawsuits will begin. He owns a beautiful house up here in Kula, and in another time I would try to take advantage and lowball the crap out of him.
Now that deal scream lose money to me. I can not see how long this will take to play out. I know there are many people here that are waiting for the crash and look forward to buying at 40%-50% discount. But even at 50% how long will we bounce along the bottom. My bet is many years. I guess that is why quiet desperation is here.
Go visit the Harborview website. This has to be seen to be believed. The building is UGLY, the ad campaign is … incredible. Multi-culti (in Boston? yeah right) couples smiling into the salt breeze with annoying harbor noises in the background. The only thing missing is the inevitable fog horn blast at 3AM. And the location? Right on top of the tourists all summer. W00t! Not.
There’s a reason all the old fancy dwellings are well inland on the tops of hills and the waterfront condoze date to the 1980’s at best. IT’S A STUPID PLACE TO BUILD.
See you at the next hurricane … suckers!
Off to a slow start
Year-old Chula Vista mall struggles to meet expectations; blame falls on high projections, toll road delay, housing slump
By David Washburn
STAFF WRITER
October 21, 2007
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071021/news_mz1b21slow.html
DEAN CALBREATH
Plummeting home prices: a crash or a correction?
October 21, 2007
There’s an economic commentator in town who likes to poke fun at the idea that home prices are crashing. For the past couple of years, his refrain has gone something like this:
“How come if stock prices drop 10 percent, they call it a correction, but if home prices drop 3 percent, they call it a crash?”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071021/news_1b21dean.html
U-T SPECIAL REPORT
Baja’s burden
Development boom on Gold Coast forces scrutiny of sewage plight
By Sandra Dibble
STAFF WRITER
October 21, 2007
JIM BAIRD / Union-Tribune
Treated with chlorine to kill bacteria, a stream from Tijuana’s overburdened Punta Bandera wastewater treatment plant flows into the ocean. New plants are expected to relieve the city’s treatment system. But a development boom along the Tijuana-Ensenada corridor (below) has forced renewed scrutiny of coastal discharges.
Donald Trump’s portrait graces a billboard advertising condos for sale along a strip of land fronting the Pacific Ocean five miles south of the Mexican border.
What the sign doesn’t say is that the luxury condo complex under construction is a few hundred feet from Punta Bandera, Tijuana’s state-run sewage treatment plant.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071021/news_1n21sewage.html
ATLANTA (AP) - With the South in the grip of an epic drought and its largest city holding less than a 90-day supply of water, officials are scrambling to deal with the worst-case scenario: What if Atlanta’s faucets really do go dry?
So far, no real backup plan exists. And there are no quick fixes among suggested solutions, which include piping water in from rivers in neighboring states, building more regional reservoirs, setting up a statewide recycling system or even desalinating water from the Atlantic Ocean.
“It’s amazing that things have come to this,” said Ray Wiedman, owner of an Atlanta landscaper business. “Everybody knew the growth was coming. We haven’t had a plan for all the people coming here?”
LAKE LANIER, Georgia (CNN) — Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue on Saturday declared the northern region of Georgia in a state of emergency as its water resources dwindled to dangerously low level.
He also sent a letter to President Bush, asking him to declare North Georgia a major disaster area.
“I have declared an emergency in 85 of Georgia’s counties due to the threat of water supply in the northern part of our state,” Perdue said on the shore of receding Lake Lanier.
Local news radio stations are talking about having FEMA deliveries of water by truck to neighborhoods in the near future.
All this should greatly help a RE market that had $1 billion in foreclosures in September.
And in 90 days I guess I’ll have to start making comments under the name “Lil Stinker”.
What do you do when you have a 90 day water supply?
Most cities would put in emergency conservation regulations and turn it into a 180 day supply, why can’t Atlanta?
Canyon Lake, Riverside County, CA
A relative’s in-laws report that Canyon Lake (a gated community squished between Lake Elsinore, Wildemar, and Menifee) has so many houses for sale because of foreclosure that the local community newspaper had an article (editorial?) begging people not to put their house up for sale unless they absolutely have to sell.
Pretty much from the deserts, to the mountains, to the sea, it is dead everywhere. I venture to say you could hang a sign up house for free and the buyers would still want free taxes, and insurance, utilties for a year. That how turned off the buyers have become, they remember the ripoffs and stand in line maybe we will get to you atttiude for a number of years, people who get taken in this country have very long memories, ask Detroit’s big three about that?
“Comment by uptown
2007-10-21 13:52:23
Just walked past my local Seattle auto broker. The garage was overflowing with luxury vehicles, many were 2006. Looks like a sign of things to come in Seattle as the overextended start to dump their toys. “
Love reading this blog- just haven’t much to add until I say this and laughed.
“Starting to dump their toys?” In my area we are long long past that point. This is the upper area of Michigan on Lake Michigan and its nickname is (soon to be ‘was’) The Gold Coast. Huge number of second home – about 40% of all single family and condos in the county. Prices that more than give LA and San Fran a run for their money – particularly since we are 4-5 hours from a town with a population over 15,000 and the “major” airport has a terminal that easily fit in a football field. Lake Michigan front properties start at $2 million, Lake Michigan access start at $1,5 million and inner lake front properties go $1.5 million to around $800K (1950s 1200 sq ft ranch on .25 acres.)
Right now, the area is running foreclosure rates of:
1 foreclosure to every 92 single family or condo unit
1 foreclosure to every 58 second homes.
The foreclosures are the 2nd home owners. It easy to tell because (1) if one knows the area and can identify the names as there are not that many permanent residents so everyone knows everyone else; (2) the local median income is around $49 –52000 and were not the purchasers of the $500,000 toys and (3) the 98% of the loans in default were made in 200-2006 and were done by WaMu, Countrywide etc. (Also the small local bank used by the residents actively discouraged their customers from using ARMs and were horrified by the 0 down 2/28 nonsense and kept muttering “but how can people pay those loans??”) Those buyers are going down for huge amounts on these places - $325,000, $480,000, $570,000 and the biggest of all – the one at $1,700,000.
One speculating 2nd homeowner bought one house to rent out on a weekly basis during the 10 week season and then stupidly set the rates at about 50% higher than comparable rentals. He also bought 3 lots in a development of 2nd homes. It all has gone to foreclosure over the past month – total $471,000 in mortgages plus the $66,000 he put down on the house (I know exactly what he paid and what the mortgage was.)
Right now, there is 1 house for sale for every 14.7 people (not households, but people) residing in the area. Less than 5% of the properties for sale are in the price range in which the locals purchase – the rest are 2nd homes and most fall into the jumbo category.
Sales are nearly non-existent. There have been 3 in my town in the past 15 months – 2 sold without a realtor and were a local-to-local sales under $190,000 and the 3rd was a 2nd home that had been on the market for 18 months until the owners got desperate and dropped the price from $430,000 to $309,000 and took $295,000. That is the most recent sale and was in August. Bet their neighbors just love them. In that 25 lot subdivision, there are only 10 houses and 3 were for sale. The one took 31% less than the original price set by the realtor. The other 2 had been priced similarly at $439,000 and $425,000. Both are the same size or 100 sq ft smaller than the one that sold and all are on the same amount of land with 2 car garages and basements. The 2 still on the market have grudgingly lowered their asking prices to $399,000 and $343,000 – and are still on the market and have been for over 18 months.
Another property started at $279,000 in February. After multiple reductions they are now down to $220000. It has ½ the land and is 525 sq feet smaller than the one that sold. My friendly local bankers and I agree that it won’t appraise for over $205K at best in view of the only sale in the past 6 months. Another is a spec house in a new 30 lot development – started at $299 and is now down to $279K, is 659 sq ft smaller than the one that sold and is on 3/8th the land. It has a ways to go. Every one of these properties I have described are within a 5 minutes walk of the one that sold.
Ann it is bad everywhere, people have just said to themselves we are tired of the smoke and mirrors, if you build them we will come has ended and the resales especially the flippers can’t believe they are not going to get rich on their investment.
The investors are inflicked with a terminal disease they haven’t come to grips with their fate?
The massive wildfires across southern California are one more nail in the coffin of real estate around here. A lot of the fire stricken areas are recently developed in the foothills, such as Canyon Country, Irvine (Portola), etc. I live in a high fire risk area, and every time this happens, insurance companies cancel the policies of our neighbors and us. Mortgage companies require fire insurance, and if you can’t get it, then what?