Lenders Are Leading The Market Downward In California
The Tribune reports from California. “A rented bus carrying more than a dozen potential homebuyers toured foreclosed homes in San Luis Obispo County and northern Santa Barbara County on Saturday. ‘People know that foreclosure can be a good buy. (Bank-owned) properties are priced really well because there is no emotional attachment and the lenders have so much inventory to get rid of,’ said Dick Keenan of the Keenan Carter Group at Keller Williams Realty in Pismo Beach.”
“For a $20 ticket, attendees were given a package of information on each property, including the previous sales price, the price the bank paid and the current asking price. A spreadsheet was provided depicting different mortgage payment scenarios as well as what an approximate rent could be for the homes.”
“Foreclosure activity is increasing in the county, according to data from a San Luis Obispo firm that tracks county foreclosures. Lenders sent county homeowners 859 notices of default…between January and September. Meanwhile, 223 trustee’s deeds, the final step in the process when the owner loses the home, were recorded through the end of September.”
“‘Lenders know that price is the biggest factor in moving a house. They are leading the market downward,’ Keenan said. ‘Buyers can definitely negotiate on price and other items like closing costs.’”
“A second tour is scheduled for Nov. 17, and Keenan expects that trip will focus on North County homes.”
The Daily News. “Foreclosures in the Greater San Fernando Valley jumped an annual 571 percent in September and sales sank to the lowest level in 19 years as the residential real estate market’s free fall intensified, a research center said Monday.”
“Last month, 302 home and condominium owners from Glendale to Calabasas lost their properties because they could not make the mortgage payment, up from 289 in August, said the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center. A year ago, just 45 properties were lost to foreclosure.”
“While some foreclosed properties are selling at about 20 ‘percent under the most-recent purchase price for the property, they have not yet pounded down home values like they did in the mid-1990s.”
“‘Our) inventory is increasing but we’re not getting flooded with foreclosures,’ said Jim Link, executive VP of the Van Nuys-based Southland Regional Association of Realtors.”
“Sales of new and previously owned houses and condos plunged 54.3 percent to 760 transactions in September. That is the lowest number of sales in the center’s database.”
“‘I think sellers are holding off the market because they don’t have to sell now and I think the advice some of the buyers are getting is sit back if you can because there might be some better deals coming on the market,’ said CSUN professor Daniel Blake, the center’s director.”
The Times Herald. “Real estate professionals, including some local ones, are pushing the federal government to declare California a ‘high-cost’ state to ease the home foreclosure crisis that has hit the Vallejo area especially hard.”
“‘Our association has been working on this for a long time,’ said California Association of Mortgage Brokers member Dale DiGennaro of Napa. ‘We got a bill as far as the Senate last year and it died there. We hope it passes this time.’”
“The designation would raise the federal mortgage loan limit to something near that needed to buy a house in California, DiGennaro said. ‘This would increase the loan limits to a more reasonable number,’ he said.”
“The median home price in Vallejo in August was about $415,000; it was about $515,000 in Benicia and about $430,000 countywide, said Solano Association of Realtors president Jeff Dennis. The Statewide median price is about $589,000, according to the mortgage brokers association.”
“‘This would allow more people to qualify for lower-interest loans, attracting more people to the real estate market,’ Dennis said. This could help jump-start the flagging industry, he said.”
“‘I can’t imagine anyone would object to making loans more affordable,’ Dennis said. ‘I just don’t see a downside to it.’”
“DiGennaro said he thinks the designation ‘would go a long way toward turning the crisis around.’ ‘We’ve needed this for a long time in California, and the problem is exaggerated now, because the liquidity in the market place is almost gone,’ he said.”
The Mercury News. “California new car sales will fall below 2 million units in 2007 for the first time in five years, the state’s dealers said Monday. Through the end of September, sales of new cars and trucks in the Golden State were down 9.3 percent compared to the first nine months of 2006. In the third quarter, sales dropped 11.2 percent compared to the same quarter last year.”
“Reasons for the decline include housing market worries, and especially the sub-prime mortgage market fallout, according to economist Jeff Foltz, who prepares the outlook for the California Motor Car Dealers Association.”
“‘How long will it last?’ Welch asked. “It’ll last as long as the subprime tail is going to last, as long as people are concerned about their jobs, the economy and whether they’ll be able to make their adjustable-rate mortgage payments.’”
“Since the beginning of the decade, the sales of new vehicles in California have increased annually, peaking in 2005 at nearly 2.2 million units. Sales fell to just above 2 million in 2006, and the dealer group forecast that they’ll fall again - to 1.87 million this year. It also projects that sales will fall again in 2008.”
“Welch noted ‘a dramatic shift’ in the types of vehicles that Californians are buying. Trucks and sport-utilities represented 51 percent of the state’s new-vehicle market just 18 months ago. In the third quarter, trucks and SUVs accounted for just 44 percent of sales.”
“Smaller vehicles are often cheaper, Welch said, and that not only means less revenue for car dealers, it means less tax money for state and local governments.”
“‘Dealers are giant tax generators,’ he said. ‘When car sales go down and the dollar purchase price for those cars goes down, there’s going to be less tax revenue for the state.’”
The Desert Sun. “Dealing with the Coachella Valley’s shifting housing trends will be the focus of an open-to-the-public gathering today that brings together local real estate experts. New ideas for a changing market” is the focus of the eighth-annual State of Real Estate presentation.”
“Today’s event comes at an important time: Local residential real estate trends have cooled considerably, thanks to speculators buying and selling homes and buyers’ willingness to see how low prices get.”
“It’s pinching many sellers, said Greg Berkemer, executive VP of the California Desert Association of Realtors. They’re confronted with loans with rising payments, slower sales, declining prices and the tightening of credit.”
“‘Because there is no historical reference in recent times, real estate agents, mortgage lenders and builders may not be able to conduct their business the same way they did in a recession-led housing downturn,’ he said. ‘It is a new market that requires new ideas.’”
“Just last week, a Southern California economist gave the desert a B-minus overall grade because of the slumping housing market.”
“‘People are not going to get into the market until they see …prices go down,’ John Husing told about 600 business leaders at the Coachella Valley Economic Partnership lunch.”
I guess it was inevitable that someone would try to link the fires with house prices:
‘ Economists have noted the perverse reality that in the wake of disasters, re-construction spending helps the economy, even as people are still struggling to recover from their personal losses. The impact can be relatively small: rebuilding in the wake of the California fires of 2003 came against a backdrop of tens of thousands of new homes under construction.’
‘In Southern California, one of the hardest hit housing markets in the country, the temporary reduction of available supply may not be enough to turn things around completely, but it could at least act as a brake on the housing crash.’
This is disaster capitalism at it’s finest. Arson terrorism helps the economy.
Buy PUTs on MGIC and Homeowner Insurance companies. ‘Disaster capitalism at it’s finest’. WaMu not funding any properties in fire related counties of California without reinspection and sign off. Let’s say you are upside down on your refi or heloc and your property burns down. What is your liability to the lender, since your fire insurance doesn’t cover the total loss ? Help me here sports fans.
3 issues:
1.) Not every homeowner carrier writes in California, let alone southern CA. Better research which ones are focused in this area.
2.) The check will be made payable to: Joe and Jane Homeowner AND the Bank. It will be up to those parties to figure out how to rebuild.
3.) If there is no lienholder, there is no requirement that the homeowner rebuild on that particular spot.
This is disaster capitalism at it’s finest. Arson terrorism helps the economy.
Not really related to capitalism. But in any case, burning down houses isn’t good for the economy, unless you measure “the economy” in very narrow terms.
..the perverse reality that in the wake of disasters, re-construction spending helps the economy..
to say they suffer from myopia would be a compliment.. to call them ignorant would be an understatement. To call them economists would be a lie.
Bullseye, Joey
If anything Ben, all these homes will have to be rebuilt. That transfers insurance money into housing. I wonder how it is refinanced? Or do people keep the same loan?
This will put many out of work to work. Still, it sucks when you lose a lot of your stuff and you try and rebuild. This will break many families.
Sad.. Sad.. Sad..
I bet many get the money and run. That is, if there is any.
I don’t see how they could that unless they owned free and clear.
Ben - 1st Thanks for all your work. I don’t think this will help upside down homeowners. Also, unless people were very careful, they could get really screwed by insurance companies because a lot of policies are only for replacement of what was there. If the house is older, insurance doesn’t pay to upgrade to current code unless you paid for that type of insurance. Plus, insurance rates will soar. I don’t see how this will be a good thing for housing.
But they have a lot of inventory that might be eliminated because people who are now homeless need homes.
Tom, that’s if they stay in the area.
You’ll have people who were just waiting for a reason to leave and those that will have to follow an employment sector out of the area.
A lot of business interests in CA have been sitting on the fence concerning locating out of the state. Now that their capital investments have gone up in smoke (couldn’t resist ), what’s to lose? Many states will give significant tax breaks to incoming industries and their running costs go down outside of CA.
Hi Tom:
The displaced will rent something while their old house is being rebuilt. That will probably cause rents to go up, but not house prices.
The inland areas are all burning and were the only affordable yet decent places left to raise a family.
Those people aren’t going to move back to the place where their community was destroyed, and can’t afford to move to the coast.
Seriously, how booming was the real estate market in Northridge after the ‘94 quake?
It took years to rebuild after the Oakland Hills fire in ‘91. The first construction did not begin until about 9 months after the fire. Construction continued for about 8 years, with most construction taking 3 to 5 years.
This will not factor into the bubble burst.
Many people couldn’t afford the home they had, now if it burns down do they just walk away or do they take a bite of the Country fried chicken.
From what I’ve heard, the insurance money will cover the house, not the land. Most people would get replacement money to build a new house, but most of the mortgage is still the land, so they are still stuck with the mortgage. I don’t see how this disaster can bail out any homeowners unless they use the fires as an excuse to mail in the keys to a no longer existent house. The fires are a tragedy, there is just no way around it.
I’m sure that for many expensive California properties most of the value is in the land, not the house. I’m sure that as home prices appreciated many insurance agents talked their clients into increasing their limits, probably well beyond what it acutally might cost to replace the structure. Given the current surplus capacity in the building trades and downward pressure on material costs, it’s not inconceivable that those with good insurance might be able to rebuild themselves a nicer/larger house than they originally had.
That is exactly what happened in Santa Barbara after the Painted Cave fire, and in Oakland/Berkeley after the Oakland hills fire.
The writer of that piece needs to bone up on Frederic Bastiat and the Broken Window Fallacy.
Short version: Any money spent rebuilding a house that burned down is money that can’t be spent doing something more productive. It doesn’t grow the economy; it just redistributes spending.
You are exactly correct. It will exacerbate the problem since the rest of the world (Fed Note holders) will realize the gov’t is flooding more notes into the world economy (by going further into debt with federal help while the Fed buys the debt with new notes) and their desire to hold Fed Notes will become less. That won’t help our situation at all. It will only make it worse.
Not only that, but the rebuilding will largely be done with insurance money. If a disaster is large enough, insurers have to cash in some of their holdings to pay claims. Insurance companies have invested heavily in mortgage-backed securities as related credit derivatives. And the financial industry is desperately trying to prevent sales of those assets, which are obviously worth much less then their present stated values, and sales of which on a large scale would force a marking of their values to the newly-revealed market price.
If insurers have to sell many of these assets to pay California wildfire claims (likely to be in the billion-plus dollar range), that could be the long-awaited trigger of this revaluation.
Not five minutes after the Northridge quake, my out of work neighbor remarked, “well, now I’ll have a chance to do some construction work.”
Northridge saved us financially because I immediately went to work running drywall crews.
The difference is that almost every house in the SFV needed significant work, if only crack repair and paint.
Even in Sandiego the total number of homes is insignificant on the scale of the entire economy. If the top 1000 contractors in socal get 1 or 2 houses to rebuild each they’ll still end up out of business.
Increased cost/lower availability of homeowners insurance in CA is going to lessen affordability. Construction trades will benefit, however.
Hi Ben!
A couple of pennies…scattered about…as I pick them up, with my bad back, because I am not too proud : )
No amount of disaster can satisfy the quench for greed. (nor the desire for another’s misfortune!)
Ones who use this situation to their advantage will answer for their motives!
P.S. I love you and yours.
P.S.S. Sorry to say, no brake on the housing recover.
P.S.S.S. I do realise you were not quoting yourself!
Golf mike tango alpha!
Jeebus’s for everyone!
Leigh
Interesting quote from Hank Paulson
“Little reported in the financial press was Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson estimating that 1 million homes will go into foreclosure in the next 15 months. Probably a very accurate projection as little more than 1% of the ARM’s have refinanced so far.”
Where is that Popcorn Neil is always talking about?
No, it won’t act as a brake. The houses that burned are removed from both the supply pool and the demand pool. Nobody wants them.
The quantity of homes removed from the supply pool is negligible anyway. That said, the insurance money freed up for repairs will help boost the local economy. While its better for people to never need the repairs, there are going to be quite a few otherwise hungry painters and roofers finding work because of this tragedy.
As to where is the popcorn, I’m working on my web order site now.
Nominal shipping charges…
Got popcorn?
Neil
Q: Which group buys FANCY cars to impress clients?
A: Realtors
To think that a good friend, who started a company that was later sold to a household name in the IT/networking industry, celebrated his good fortune by buying a new VW Beetle. His daughter picked out the color.
“‘I can’t imagine anyone would object to making loans more affordable,’ Dennis said. ‘I just don’t see a downside to it.’”
Hmmmmm……I’ve got an idea, how ’bout making home prices more affordable, you butt-knuckle. Why not let natural market forces do their work and you’ll have an affordable product again.
“‘I can’t imagine anyone would object to making loans more affordable,’ Dennis said. ‘I just don’t see a downside to it.’”
The downside is that it makes home prices go up, then you end up right back where you started.
Damn, you beat me to it! Getting really tired of all these calls for giving artificial life support to housing. For the VAST majority of Californians, income levels have been stagnant to negative throughout this housing bubble. It was nothing but a giant Ponzi scheme, Mr. Dennis. Time for you to go back to the used car lot.
Dennis! I OBJECT! Can you Imagine me?
Not to mention that most attempts at “E-Z Financing” simply means the consume pays more in the end than if he had put 20% down and got a 15-year fixed. They way people USED to do it!
Butt-knuckle! That is simply superb.
As a lender, I would “object” to making loans “more affordable.” My rate started at 10% in 1993, and in tiny little increments it got down to 9% by 2004. I wasn’t interested in affordability for the homebuyer, I was interested in getting a return high enough to compensate me for the risk and the hassle. Turned out “Trailer Trash” were a lot less risky than the banks thought.
Apparently AZ, as a lender you’re one of a dying breed of old school traditionalists. These ‘lenders’, our ‘president’ it seems no one in charge knows WTH they’re doing anymore these days.
No way Congress makes an exception (in loan limits) for California’s high prices, nor should they. The other states’ rep would never sit still for it. It’s a selfish move to try to buoy up inflated prices.
Hey So Cal people - how is everyone doing? Give an update of where you are and if your home/rental is safe.
*HOME!* Oddly quiety and people free, but nice in a strangely serene kind of way. Still apprehensive and vigilent. Still ready to go at a moments notice. Any other updates on the others?
I got evacuated from a church committee meeting Sunday night in Santa Clarita, but other than that nothing special.
Safe here.
Watching a big fire on the south slope of Mt. Palomar (N San Diego County). About 18 miles away…
Enjoying, in a slghtly terrified way, the virtual airshow I’ve been subjected to, as helicopters come and go from Van Nuys Airport, about a mile from my house.
Don’t know what they’re called, but every once in a while we’ll get a HUMONGOUS double-rotor chopper going past - one even had the rope from the retardant bag hanging below it.
The clear morning sky has turned to murky, orangey, almost iridescent cloud - I don’t know if its my imagination or not, but it seems to be getting hotter too.
My backyard thermometer is showing 92 degrees, and for the first time I can actually smell the fire, over the other side of the Santa Monica mountains. That’s a first.
Wind seems to be dropping, but who knows what will happen once dark falls.
CH-47 Chinook if Army or AF, CH-46 Sea Knight if Navy. Built by Boeing and introduced to service in 1962.
Thanks for the info, veloblues.
It was painted the Emergency Services yellow and orange, so I don’t know what it was.
It was loud enough to rattle every window in the house, though.
An amazing machine, in any case.
MacAttack - for some reason, Santa Anas often get worse at night - something to do with the temperature variation. In any case, its sucked every atom of moisture out of the air here.
California Department of Forestry uses Super Huey. US Forestry Services uses CH-47D, typically painted bright orange.
Once dark falls the wind usually dies, right?
“Once dark falls the wind usually dies, right?”
Only convected wind which is generated by the Sun heating the land mass causing the air to rise. Nature abhors a vacuum and the offshore air moves in to replace it. Hence “cool ocean breeze”.
Santa Ana’s are caused by high pressure in the East moving toward a deep low pressure zone over the ocean. The winds will continue until the air masses are equalized.
HTH
VB
Sorry, my first post seems to have been eaten…appols if this is a double post
Thanks for the info veloblues - I have no idea what the choppers are, they’re painted the EMS yellow and orange?
Still, amazing machines.
MacAttack - the Santa Anas often get stronger at night - something to do with the temperature difference between the high desert and the coast. Natually, they are as irritating (both physically and psychologically) at night as they are during the day.
In any case, three long days of them has sucked every last atom of moisture out of everything around here - I’m starting to feel like beef jerky……
‘Once dark falls the wind usually dies, right? ‘
Santa Anas kick up around sunset, but here in Thousand Oaks they’ve been dying down mostly today. A big part of the sky is dark brown, however.
“Only convected wind which is generated by the Sun heating the land mass causing the air to rise. Nature abhors a vacuum and the offshore air moves in to replace it. Hence “cool ocean breeze…
Santa Ana’s are caused by high pressure in the East moving toward a deep low pressure zone over the ocean. The winds will continue until the air masses are equalized.”
We should be getting the onshore flow ocean overcast/air mass/breeze moving in toward end of this week which is the equalization you are talkimg about. Santa Anas then dissappear probably for rest of year til spring next year.
Probably an early fall rain event should occur maybe a few days in november, the ‘grasshopper’ early rains which occur in fall -this is usually followed by 1-2 months of wonderful balmy dec-jan weather till the torrential rains of late jan-feb and perhaps into march/april if a wet winter. Then we get into mudslide-flooding events which the denuded hillsides will exacerbate.
This is typical Scal pattern unless the abonormal drought extends into a third year which would be a disaster for Scal water resources.
The smoke over the valley was actually coming from the SB fire.
When dark falls, the wind will start blowing in the other direction.
I’m safe here in Studio City but yesterday I was working in Simi Valley when the fire can right up to the hills behind the property. It was a huge black and orange cloud. The home owner grabbed her baby and left. There I was, alone in the house searching for my keys to get away. Thankfully, I found them.I drove away from there so fast. I was quite rattled. The winds were so strong the house shuddered with the gusts.(It was a $1.2 mil, 4000 sq ft cookie cutter house)
That was nice of her. You should charge her overtime for the minutes you spent searching for your keys.
Brother In Law’s house may have survived (Rancho Bernardo)…when they were evacuating, his trees were starting to go up in flames, and his neighbor’s house was on fire…all at about 4:30 am yesterday. No word on the structure, but alarm company says that they are still getting a signal from his equipment, so we are keeping our fingers crossed. Luckily, no one got hurt.
This from the AP:
“Faced with unrelenting winds whipping wildfires into a frenzy across Southern California, firefighters all but conceded defeat Tuesday to an unstoppable force that has already chased nearly a million people away.
Unless the shrieking Santa Ana winds subside, and that’s not expected for at least another day, fire crews say they can do little more than try to wait it out and react — tamping out spot fires and chasing ribbons of airborne embers to keep new fires from flaring.”
It’s pretty bad, last I heard, the Witch fire was 0% contained, and that area is pretty populated…this could be worse than 2003, and THAT was pretty bad. 1 million people relocated, this time, wow.
We had the high east winds in AZ yesterday. They subsided today. Was out for an almost 20-mile bike ride today, and the wind was but a minor annoyance.
So, hang in there, CA, relief is on the way!
Although the wind was blowing from the east, it is my impression that weather PATTERNS in mid-latitudes move from west to east exclusively. AZ gets CA’s weather later, not the other way. Because the upper-level circulation is westerly in mid-latitudes, easterly in tropics & polar vortices
usually you’re right.
Except the weather phenomenom called the “SANTA ANNA” is when that normal flow of wind from west to east reverses blowing east to West. form the great basin down through the canyons of Southern California .
Correct. The santa ana wind are a hot, dry wind that is the reverse of the normal offshore weather. I think these winds are coming out of NE instead of the SE and they really kick up as draft down the canyons.
People in the Midwest can sniff the air or check some wayyyyy off clouds and tell you a major thunderstone or twister is coming. Northern CA gets weather alerts so we know when the water is coming. In northern NV, you can glance at the Sierras and give a pretty guess when the snow will hit. We all have weather we get used to.
The only thing we californians don’t get a heads up on is earthquakes. Us natives are used to it. People in the other parts of the world think we’re batshit >; )
What’s funny is that my husband is thinking moving to snow country is looking pretty good.
Where are you moving to Gwyn?
winds circulate clockwise around high pressure areas. Put a h.p. over Nevada, and S. California gets Arizona’s weather.
Plus occasionally a hurricane out of the Atlantic hits California as a tropical storm or such.
Slim - you are lucky. They say if the winds had shifted, the smoke would be in Phoenix by now.
BTW: Phoenix has no forest fires, no earthquakes, no tornandos, no hurricanes, but lots of solar energy and heat (of course). I think I like the heat.
er…(in a whisper) earthquakes?
Az has fires such as the Cave Creek Complex fire that was in June 2005. Sandstorms in the fall are pretty exciting to drive thourgh. My son, who lives in Phoenix area said the 112 days of 110+ heat this summer was just about his limit and he’s ‘used’ to the heat. Me personally, while the Dec-Mar. months have pretty nice weather, I can’t take the heat of Hades in July.
Isn’t Professor Bear from somewhere near Rancho Bernardo? Has anyone heard from him?
Yes PB/GS is right in Rancho Bernado…the worst destruction is right in RB. Hope PB is OK. SDFD indicates it should start letting people back into RB tomorrow….many many homes lost.
Here’s a list of the destroyed homes in RB:
http://www.cbs8.com/misc/fires_oct_07/homes_destroyed.html
PB/GS checked in yesterday and said they had evacuated & were safe. Supposedly, their house was still standing as of last night, IIRC.
Best to all!!
As far as I can tell from the flight patterns at John Wayne Airport in Orange County, the wind’s turned back to the usual onshore flow. That means more humidity, less intense wind, and the wind direction blows the fire back into the mountains (or back onto the areas the fires just cleared of fuel.) Good news for the firefighters.
Heard FEMA director say that tomorrow they are FINALLY going to bring in a bunch of tankers to put this thing out once and for all. Day late and dollar short as usual.
Heck of a job.
Compare the So Cal population with the retards in La after Katrina. No crime, rape, murder problems in the San Diego stadium after evacuation. Don’t waste money rebuilding New Orleans.
Who would have thought - treat people decently, and they’ll act decently. Treat them like animals…
This article doesn’t mention the free Starbucks and lavish buffets (as reported on the local news) given to the evacuees:
“Free newspapers were available, National Guard troops kept watch, ventriloquists and balloon artists entertained kids, and even massage therapists were trying to help the 12,000 to 15,000 evacuees relax as they fretted about the fate of their homes.”
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/10/23/wildfire.ca/index.html
“Bands belted out rock ‘n’ roll, lavish buffets served gourmet entrees, and massage therapists helped relieve the stress for those forced to flee their homes because of wildfires.
“The people are happy. They have everything here,” Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared Monday night after his second Qualcomm tour.
Although anxieties ran high, the misery index seemed low as the celebrity governor waded through the mob. Scarcely a complaint was registered with him.
“Oooh, I got a picture!” shrieked Olivia Beard of Ocean Beach, one of hundreds who pressed toward Schwarzenegger with camera phones snapping.”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j2Fed3GM4XyxswLImxLvQ1G8YMYA
Well said…and hats off to the San Diego office of emergency services. They have done a great job gettng information in back and out to people & animals evacuting about where and when to go. This obviously isn’t a FEMA directed operation…..
“Compare the So Cal population with the retards in La after Katrina. No crime, rape, murder problems in the San Diego stadium after evacuation. Don’t waste money rebuilding New Orleans.”
I would qualify that by saying yes, San diegoans are pretty upstanding and lawabiding compared to New orleans crowd but if we had a catastrophin event with mass ecavcuations in say south LA county or San Berdoo county one might just see widesperad looting, roaming gangs, smashing of shops, ect. I was here in la during the 1992 riots and saw what a large unruly mostly angry minority mob can do when disaster strikes -whether manmade or natural. I have already heard reports of looting in the IE in Ontario, L. arrowhead.
San Deigo is a differnent animal than LA , new orleans, or IE. In event of an epic disaster here in LA the authorities should impose martial law ASAP–lots of unruly gangstas willing to take advantage of an LA disaster to loot and smash just as in 1992.
If you’re not going to rebuild New Orleans, then at least get Liberia open for newcomers.
Friends in San Diego with an organic farm report that their avacado orchard is gone. Sad.
23 thousand avocado trees destroyed in Fallbrook.
Buy avocado futures. The next bubble!
GS/PB? CA Renter? SD Renter? Neil? GL in OC? CA Realist? Stars End? A bunch of others I can’t think of off the top of my head (sorry!)
I’m actually in Reno for a conference so I’m missing all the fun this week. My fiance is back home in Laguna Hills and all is well there.
Hollywood Hills (valley side) A-okay, although I saw a sky-crane do a water-drop in Griffith Park yesterday(???).
Well, as far as Costa Mesa (my haunt) is concerned, not much threatened, unless you have asthma, sensitive sinuses, or certain allergies. The Santiago fire (Irvine, Sliverado, etc.) has been stinking up the place since Sunday. (You may recall a post of mine on Sunday talking about the fire early on.)
Pleased to report the air is definitely clearing up, and the winds have calmed way down in CM. Things could change quickly, but conditions have improved dramatically for the moment.
Everyone should not forget, this is a fairly regular occurrence here in SoCal. Every few years the fires flare up and everyone goes crazy. Not to belittle it, but the only rational strategy is to keep your important things insured, protect yourself and your family (and pets), and don’t be a garden-hose hero in a firestorm. The nice thing about the fires is like the hurricanes; you can get plenty of warning and get the heck out of Dodge.
I’m ok. The fire was much further from our place than we realized (wife and I were away during the excitement). All is well
Neil
Hey there, SD RE Bear!
We’re still in LA and might return Wednesday, but have been following fire blogs and the CHP reports fires on Camp Pendleton (northermost part of SD County, for those not from here) — they were lighting backfires & they went bad.
Fires crossed the 5 FWY and they had to close both NB and SB lanes on the 5. This means no access into out of San Diego County. VERY bad if they don’t get this taken care of. Unfortunately, they are already spread so thin & most evacuation centers are either full or are in evac zones themselves.
How have you been holding up?
Nothing to tell. I wanted to make sure I would NOT have to evacuate or have my house burned down so my truck is packed and ready to go. Murphy’s Law - were I to ignore things and wait to pack the house would burn down. Because I am ready and have a lot of memories saved I probably won’t have to go.
But evacs are a big U around us so if they spread it at all we’ll need to go. But I have lots of places to stay so am lucky.
Good to hear you’re prepared & have places to stay. Hopefully, they’ll get this cleared up in the next day or two.
Take care!
The Santa Anas are blowing fiercer this year because of all the additional hot air venting from the popping Inland Empire RE bubble.
We are fine, but my dad’s house in Trabuco Canyon in the OC (where I grew up) sounds like it is now threatened. Mandatory evacuation. I just didn’t believe the fire could possibly get through both Silverado and Modjeska Canyons to Trabuco - didn’t really think our family home would be threatened so far away from the source of the fire. I hear alot of beautiful old homes in Silverado and Modjeska are gone - hope to god they aren’t replaced with stucco rebuilds. The best thing about the canyons are the old, one of kind cabins.
I pity those arsonists if any of the canyon folk get a hold of them!
I pity those arsonists if any of the canyon folk get a hold of them!
Umm… I wouldn’t use the word pity. And last I looked, if an arsonist kills someone in California, its 1st degree murder (intended killing or not). Talk about someone I’d like to see sitting on ol’ Sparky.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I think the point was that if the canyon folks get ahold of them there will be no remains left for a 1st degree murder trial.
So what happened to good old days when looters were shoot on sight? (Yes, kidding. Kind of.)
“Bailiff, will you please do a better job of stacking what’s left of the defendant on the witness stand? Bits and pieces keep sliding off.”
I’m in Mission Bay and it’s been raining ash here for the past few days. Really bad low hanging smoke and high winds mid day. The wind started again last night at about 3am. I got up to take pictures b/c the moon was blood red. Our street is full of evacuees in their RVs and trailers right now. Thankfully no one I know has lost a house yet.
This is also why I rent and live on the coast-very clear memory of the Cedar fires 4 yrs ago almost to the day. ”Just move inland and buy a house” was the mantra back then. No way Jose. I’ll stick to renting close to water thanks.
I thought it was from Searchlight ,Nev and from the Dem leader Dingy Harry, hot air that is.
Im on perch watch. Grey everywhere, no sunset. Check out my pics. click name
“‘How long will it last?’ Welch asked. “It’ll last as long as the subprime tail is going to last, as long as people are concerned about their jobs, the economy and whether they’ll be able to make their adjustable-rate mortgage payments.’”
- People in SoCal are not concerned about their jobs. We can always record a new rap CD in our garage studio or join the paparazzi and follow OJ, Brittney, Pairs….Bling is everything to SoCal.
Last week my cousin and grandma put in a bid on an REO 4/3 off of white lane in Bakersfield. Our bid was 108 most likely didnt get it. But still there are deals to be found. Key is can you cash flow it.
The guy who had it last tore out the carpet, and vanity in the bathroom. Also took out a window in the bed room and made the space for sliders then stopped half way through.
If the price is right, these will sell
how do you cash flow vandalism,squatters and meth labs
live free !
Well, I understand that Meth labs cash flow quite nicely..
Until you blow up half the neighborhood and make the other 1/2 into a toxic waste dump; that is…
I scan the MLS and Loopnet once a week and see nothing yet that will cash flow. Also, I am factoring decling rents in our area - all the local investors claim rents are going to go up, I call BS! I know what we have and rents are not going up. In fact commerical rents (which is most of our inventory) are going down.
“Key is can you cash flow it.”
Which means factoring in taxes & insurance, maintainance, and at least a 25% vacancy factor. I just love how when people are running the figures on income properties thay think their going to have the thing rented 365 days a year for years to come. NOT!
My family owns 6 rental homes and 26 units. My uncle got into doing rentals after he returned home from WWII. We know what we are doing. We know what rents.
And dont you guys keep preaching the joys of renting which will become the next mantra
you picked a good spot.. Bakersfield has a housing shortage.
LOL!!! Bakersfield has a housing shortage. too funny!
Down Dino! Easy does it. No one is preaching the joys of renting here, just plain and simple fundamental economics - what makes sense, and what doesn’t. Sometimes renting makes more sense than owning, sometimes it doesn’t. We’re not Nazi renters here. Your reaction tells me that current market conditions have got your panties in a bind. So sorry.
Apparently my response to your post got munched, so i apologize if this comes up twice.
Dude, you need to relax. No one is preaching the joys of renting here. What we are preaching is economic common sense. We rent when it makes more sense to rent, and we own when it makes more sense to own. The people here aren’t folks who are economically trapped, like so many FB’s whose bias has no choice but be bent toward the optimistic. Rather, the folks who participate in this blog are the free thinkers who will make decisions that are fundamentally sound. There’s no “renters bias” here, just good old fashioned common sense.
Your sensitivity tells me a little something, by the way…….
I’m relaxed, I rent.
Curtsey Max,
Back in the day, some made wise choices to rent to the masses.
Good choice. Bless your (their) luck and judicious business practices!
I am not group think:
- Invest them if ya got them
- House is roof over head
Either way, symbiotic relationship.
Now? (Your family made a good business deal, based on the information).
Idiots are buying rentals that are oversupplied and underdemand!(?)
Best,
Leigh
“If the price is right, these will sell”
You are correct, sit. However, over here, things have to drop another 30%-40% to be “priced right”. Until then, I’ll rent the house we are living in.
(And yes, I still own rental properties in SoCal).
Side note: To me, “cash flow” doesn’t mean taking out a Neg-Am loan so that the newly bought house ‘appears’ to cash flow.
sit = sir…
nope My uncle told me that the payoff is 15 years down the road when the bank gets paid. and you have an asset. The renter is the one who paid the bank for you. So rentals are rather long term investments.
He never counted on a rise in the real estate. Something everybody else thought with this mania.
His way of thinking is very different from my cousin who likes the fact you get a write off from the morgage. So since you loss the write off, and you gotta pay the insurance and the taxman. Who cares if you pay off the loan. As long as you dont get any carry costs
quit while you’re ahead..
This wouldn’t be the same uncle that made you sit on his lap and play “Tickle-Me Elmo”, would it?
Oy vey…there goes another five pounds…the laughter here sheds five pounds…more than my five mile run!
Thanks!
Leigh
Good luck; I think that’s what a lot of those houses around there are worth.
If I had to move back to Bakersfield, though, I’d want to buy a house much closer to the center of town and along the river - then I could ride my bike along the river bike path and avoid much of the severe bad driving that Bakersfield has.
“DiGennaro said he thinks the designation ‘would go a long way toward turning the crisis around.’ ‘We’ve needed this for a long time in California, and the problem is exaggerated now, because the liquidity in the market place is almost gone,’ he said.”
I see….it all makes sense. We fix the problem caused by loose lending by lifting restrictions, and, you guessed it, loosening up lending again. Great idea!
Instead of allowing home prices to drop to economically more sensible price ranges -as dictated by average salaries- this DiGennaro asshat basically wants to permanently set the ridiculous highwater mark achieved in RE prices. Why isn’t anybody shooting these people?.
I see a hot ember from a joshua tree landing on this idiot’s house.
Hi Ex,
Pssst…
Looking over shoulder…
Not going to happen!
It’s tooooooooo large…and…drum roll…
Ya just can’t make this stuff up! NO WAY!
Smiles,
Leigh
And here I thought every SoCal resident was entitled to a luxury SUV and a second home on a golf course in the middle of the desert …
WARNING PDF -
412 more locals who missed the “bailout”:
http://fidelitykern.com/nod.pdf
I saw the same names over and over on some of those… people from Westlake Village who were “the smartest guys in the room,” no doubt.
–
Sales of all homes in CA, new & resales, SFH as well as condos, during Sep’07 are down 68.1% from the peak sales During Jun’04. YoY sales are down 45.2% as per DataQuick. CA’s numbers alone will take the nationwide number for Sep’07 below 5.0M seasonally adjusted annual rate.
It is hard to believe that the CA economy is not in recession.
Jas
“is not in recession”
I’m not so sure it isn’t.
“Sales of all homes in CA, new & resales, SFH as well as condos, during Sep’07 are down 68.1% from the peak sales During Jun’04. YoY sales are down 45.2% as per DataQuick. CA’s numbers alone will take the nationwide number for Sep’07 below 5.0M seasonally adjusted annual rate.”
Data quick just released the sept LA zip chart. To make a quick summarization: a miniscule tiny % of homes in superrich LA zips are still selling above peak. The average and low-income areas of LA are flat or declining.
Sales volume way down for all areas. Glad to see that some fraudulent inner crapzones finally getting some good sizable YOY % declines-the amt of mortgage fraud in the inner LA areas is/was simply mind-boggling and big YOY reverses are inevitable.
Still LA has a ways to go-it is late to the party and behind the curve but slowly drifting downward. Only a tiny, tiny few sales of million$ + units in select coastal enclaves disguises the reality of the inevitable ongoing LA bubble bust underway. Carnage is about to be unleashed in the LA county fraudulent RE market.
please book your ticket to China.
So, load up on ipods and levis cuz your gonna need em to get back.
–
“Lenders Are Leading The Market Downward In California”
What lenders giveth lenders taketh away!
Jas
“Increase loan limits to a more reasonable number…”
“…..I can’t imagine anyone would object……”
Let me try !!!!!
Then everyone in the country would be holding the bag on overpriced California real estate. And how WILL making Uncle Sam/all of us the bag holder make interest rates lower? At this point, I don’t think ZERO Percent financing would save it.
The price bubble is big enough as it is. Pumping it up even more before it blows will just insure more collateral damage.
Assuming you could pump it up any more.
Interesting thought, zero interest. Run the numbers on the ‘average’ home cost by the ‘average’ household income and the average J6P can just afford his castle (at 3x income) if principal only is paid. Reminds me of ‘Cadilac Desert’, where 97% of the state’s water resources are claimed by somebody. A little drought, like a little imploding bubble, doesn’t leave much room for error.
That’s why I never bought into ARMs. Mortgage calculators are great for the math-challenge (like me). See what the payment is at the initial rate…..then figure it at 10% (a rate that is entirely within the realm of possibility)…….stifle choking reaction…….
Another thing that bugs me…….when a realtor tells you a price in realtor-ese: “This lovely McCrapshack is only $450-five”
Doesn’t sound like much? Try it this way…..say it slow:
“FOUR-HUNDRED-AND-FIFTY-THOOOUUUSAND-FIVE HUNDRED-DOLLARS”
Keenan of Keller Williams is an idiot cheerleader and charter member of the local REIC. hehehehehehe
And we’ve seen that Harry Howmuchamonth doesn’t care about interest rates, terms of loan, etc.
All he cares about is ZERO DOWN, and being able to afford the FIRST MONTH’S PAYMENT. That’s it!
“Just last week, a Southern California economist gave the desert a B-minus overall grade because of the slumping housing market.”
On the plus side, there is not much flammable material out in the middle of the desert (with the possible exception of McMansion tract home developments).
Bear - So glad to see you. How are you holding up. Anytime you want to come out and really see what’s happened out here, let me know.
It’s alive!!! Report, please!
For a $20 ticket, attendees were given a package of information on each property..
That’s a real bargain… any idiot who would pay $20 would very likely pay $50.
There were only 12 of them. They could have, and truly should have used the short bus.
“Howdy.. looking for a car?”
“Hi.. yeah.. something reliable and not too old..”
“I’ve got just the thing.. it’s a repo.. the blue one sitting right there.”
“Nice. How much?”
“I’d be happy to tell you all about it for $20″
Now, Turnout, it’s not nice to make fun of the kids who ride the short bus.
Yep, how if the retarded children of today going to grow up into the realtors of tomorrow if they suffer from poor self-esteem?
I was wondering if the “slobear” who commented on the Tribune article (click on Ben’s link) was “our” SLO_bear. I always love to see what HBBer’s are saying when they post on other sites.
i have been watching a house on LA Westside. Purchased June ‘05 for $2575.0M with about $125.0 put into it. Originally listed in May ‘07 at $2895.0M. Price was cut 4 times, bottom to $2425.0M. I had bid $2050M in July and got screamed at by listing agent. Came off the MLS and back with a new paint job and new realtor two weeks ago at $2395.0M. Agent who handled my bid called today to tell me the house had sold “over asking”. So, THAT’s how they do it!?!
“got screamed at by listing agent.”
I got screamed at one time by a realtor. I couldn’t even believe it. I’ve had plenty of clients/customers over the years who have irritated me for one reason or another, but I’ve always either walked away from the deal or bitten my tongue. In any event, someone who would dare to scream at someone from whom they might make money is nothing but an idiot. Report them to the local licensing board (you never know when some other realtor might want to get even with them and your report will add fuel to the fire) and share you experience with others in your community so word gets around how they treated you.
“got screamed at by listing agent.”
Got KO’d by buyer.
tony, 1.0M= one million.
2395.0M would be a 2.5 Billion price tag.
get a grip on your $####.0M
Voz, I got confused by people using M for millions on this site. M was finance short for thousands. from - Mille - Latin for one thousand.
Million is ‘MM’ (1000 - 1000s)
WE use the metric system here. K=kilobucks, M=megabucks, B=Bukobucks
“While some foreclosed properties are selling at about 20 ‘percent under the most-recent purchase price for the property, they have not yet pounded down home values like they did in the mid-1990s.”
Apples and oranges. We haven’t reached the mid-1990s yet this time around - it’s more like 1992 or so. This party still has years to go.
so true
Absolutely. And we are watching all of this unfold without the assistance of a recession. So with the table set, the fine linen out and the platters of hot food waiting, just what will a little economic retrenchment do?
Insurance will not fix this mess
#1 They will drag their feet until the cows come home.
#2 Owners who were already walking a financial tight rope will only have part of their losses recoverd. Thus I see a huge increase in bankruptcy.
#3 How many people on the fence dropped their insurance or had cheap insurance that didn’t cover loss due to fire.
#4 Fewer people will want to move into these neighborhoods as the area will appear ugly for some time.
#5 business and citizens will take this oportunity to relocate
and in the meantime all the people whos home survived, their rates will go up to pay for any disbursments made on claims. i saw that after 9/11.
“and in the meantime all the people whos home survived, their rates will go up to pay for any disbursments made on claims. i saw that after 9/11. ”
Yeah, even one tiny little claim and they jack up rates. and may even cancel your coverage. That is why i never file a claim, preferring to do any repair jobs myself if minor. My Insurance still under $500 per year with farmers and decent coverage of all assets with a $2500 deductible.
Maybe they will relocate to Bakersfield or even the beautiful KB development in Trona. hehehehehehe
No way - KB in Trona??????
citizens unite, burn it all down.
A rented bus carrying more than a dozen potential homebuyers toured foreclosed homes in San Luis Obispo County and northern Santa Barbara County on Saturday. ‘People know that foreclosure can be a good buy. (Bank-owned) properties are priced really well because there is no emotional attachment and the lenders have so much inventory to get rid of,’ said Dick Keenan of the Keenan Carter Group at Keller Williams Realty in Pismo Beach.”
Ah, there ARE a few flippers out there to take the bait…
This is hilarious!!! and sad, at the same time.
short bus, and short bus ride…
all aboard!
Slightly OT
One of the troubling aspects of Layoffs these last 18 months has been in health care, particularly in burn units because of the cost to maitain. In the fires in San Diego this is a problem now.
from Sign on San Diego:
“The burn unit at UCSD Medical Center in Hillcrest, the only such unit in the county, has received all of the region’s seriously burned patients from the wildfires over the last two days.
As of Tuesday morning, the 18-bed unit was still full but the center can use other intensive care beds….”
This fire fortunately has not caused many serious burns, but the fire is still going.
“‘People are not going to get into the market until they see …prices go down,’ John Husing told about 600 business leaders at the Coachella Valley Economic Partnership lunch.”
Yep, just as soon as those high quality 3/2’s in El Centro dip below 300K I am completely there! Nothing like the IV in July to make you feel so, so…. alive
Yeah but what happens when W calls it a federal disaster area? Big check, new trailer and plenty o’ free cheese for everybody.
Have you seen New Orleans lately.
Big checks will go to scam artists like Blackwater’s Eric Prince who flew in 180 of his men with no request and then billed the gov later.
Or for those who sold toxic trailers
The average guy on the street gets nothing. This administration is about stripping the national wealth out of the country and condensing it in a very small # of hands.
Short Bus Homebuyers
“A rented bus carrying more than a dozen potential homebuyers toured foreclosed homes in San Luis Obispo County and northern Santa Barbara County on Saturday. ‘People know that foreclosure can be a good buy.”
“‘I can’t imagine anyone would object to making loans more affordable,’ Dennis said. ‘I just don’t see a downside to it.’”
That’s EXACTLY the kind of thinking that got us into this mess to begin with.
“‘I can’t imagine anyone would object to making loans more affordable,’ Dennis said. ‘I just don’t see a downside to it.’”
Loans are affordable you ding-a-ling. It’s houses that are not affordable. I object and I’ll be very, very vocal about it. People need to picket your house and business and then just maybe you’ll get it. I was in a fabulous mood all day until Ben posted that comment.
Just for a little upbeat news. The Solar Decathalon sponsored by the Dept. of Energy, with 20 universities competing to build/design the most efficient home, was covered by PBS tonight. Some of the houses include hydroponic gardens, solar fences, and some beautiful designs.
Here’s the website. http://www.solardecathlon.org/
very cool. thanks.
I saw a piece on these tonight the Leher news hour. Gorgeous smart homes, some highly transportable and under 200k to build.
I really want the Maryland house or the Texas house- hell I’d take any of them.
Those houses are cool spike66 .
Regarding the fires in Ca. ,I wonder if anyone knows how long the insurance company provides housing for a fire victim while their house is being re-built ,on your average homeowners policy .
Wizard, my policy (IN, not CA) provides an amount roughly equal to 30% of the insured cost of the house for loss of use. I have the following:
Dwelling - - - - - - - - X
Other Structures - - 0.1X
Personal Property — 0.75X
Loss of Use - - - - - - 0.30X
i love solar .. always have predicted it’ll be the solution.
I once made a calculation based on it replacing gasoline.. if i recall the numbers.. :
About 1000 watts of solar energy hits every square yard of earth, or 8KWH per day, under full sun.
1KW = 1.34 horsepower
If the mojave desert (about 22,000 square miles) were completely covered with solar panels (figure 30% efficient cells in today’s technology) enough power would be generated to propel 300,000,000 (every man, woman and child in the USA) 300HP automobiles (hot rods) for 8 hours a day..
I went to it . It was very interesting. Small and smart design. Low prices. Much of the technology available now.
Staring into Countrywide’s abyss
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/23/news/companies/countrywide_walkup/index.htm
Countrywide can write new loans for about 10,000 in So Cal with the 16 billion dollars of new money. Start in the Inland Empire Mosillo. How about it?
From what I have read here and elsewhere I believe there is a serious underappreciation/underestimation of the fiscal stimulus to the San Diego economy that will result from the fires. The disaster is more likely understated than overstated. Total houses lost will likely far exceed the 2000 or so in 2003, and could even represent as much as half of total current for-sale inventory in the county, and will probably even exceed inventory in the most bubbled areas. Employment, construction employment, retail sales, and home prices (both SFH and condos) will all benefit significantly in the short run relative to a non-fire-disaster scenario.
In the long run, the disaster will turn out to be a measurable negative event for the U.S. budget deficit and inflation - not to mention the damage to the economic health and reputation of San Diego, which will enjoy put-Florida-to-shame-like soaring insurance costs and local government revenue demands.
ein the affected areas could even approach. exceed wio
The short term side effects are going to be large. The major problem is the marginal companies are going to relocate. The multi nationals have other facilities to occupy. Like New Orleans after Katrina, the companies will have no incentive to return. Since the fires are now more than once every 20 years and seem to occur 2X per decade, a company would have to be crazy to wish to be in southern California or environs. The 500,000 people in flight are not going to work tomorrow or this week. That is lost production. Many companies would go BK if they lost 2% production in such a nightmare event.
I assume you’re saying home prices could rise. But are they not currently beyond affordable already, here at the bubble’s peak? Can a slight increase in demand raise them further? Will there even be an increase in demand if the area is already as overbuilt as the rest of the State?
Will a lender lend more money on a SD home with a mortgage of perhaps 30 years, due to a condition that may last only a year or two?
I do agree the area’s economy will be damaged. Perhaps SD will be the point man on the road to recession nationwide.
Home prices will be higher than they otherwise would have been due to an enormous (not slight) decrease in supply rather than an increase in houses demanded. (I own a house, I demand one house, supply meets demand. My house burns down, I demand one house, supply decreases by 1.)
In the short run, local GDP will increase due to a huge influx of insurance and government dollars which will increase demand for all goods and services.
In the long run, local GDP will decrease due to the effects stated by Hoz.
I have one house. It burns down.
5 houses on my street have been vacant for a long time with no hope of selling at bubblicious prices. I take one at a reasonable price.
The oversupply of over priced homes decreases by one house.
Land is still there, and the high price was coming from the land appreciation, not the house itself, so much.
‘course, land without pretty greenery is wasteland, but that stuff grows back with a little irrigation . . .
Very true about the relocating thing. A lot of dairy interests are moving into my area from California. Apparently they sold all their land to developers at the peak of the boom and came and bought better land (less hoof and mouth decease here) for like 5% of what they sold their CA land for..
I own a house, my house burns down, I demand one house. But my demand is satisfied by the insurance company giving me money to build a new house on the same property — not by my going out and buying a house for sale down the street.
The net effect of a fire on housing supply and demand is ultimately zero.
I disagree that there will be even a short-term boost to the local market in houses-for-purchase. Homeowners who are insured (or assisted by FEMA) will simply rebuild on their existing lots.
On the other hand, I can see the rental market getting a boost, as insurance companies pay people to rent temporary housing while their houses are rebuilt.
What are the chances of any banks loaning moneys in the 6 county fire zone for a while?
How many real estate agents and mortgage brokers are going into foreclosure because loans scheduled to close are not going to close as a result of the fires?
When banks start loaning again in California, how many are going to require additional insurance?
Many banks have halted all loans to the disaster stricken areas. All of the following counties San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and some of San Bernadino and Riverside have had stops put on lending.
I should think that the sales pace will ease this month, as well.
Yikes - 14 years on average for housing to recover, according to this article
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/HousingHorrorCouldHangAroundForYears.aspx
he Texas template tells us we could be in for a 14% to 25% decline and an eight-year to 14-year wait for recovery. That’s real history. It’s not hyperventilation from the Chicken Little chorus.
The only thing horrific about the housing situation is how expensive price are, relative to most people’s income. I don’t think we shall have to wait 14 years for that horror to go away. More like five.