Halloween Came A Little Early For Florida
TC Palm reports on Florida. “Existing home sales and prices in September continued to fall in Indian River County, a report from the Realtors Association of Indian River County said Wednesday. In the county, 94 existing single-family homes sold in September, down from 141 units the year before, the Realtors association said. Prices dropped to $174,495 from $220,400 between the same months.”
“‘Figures seem to show we are not at the bottom yet and that sellers are reducing their prices,’ said Richard Hope, past president of the Treasure Coast Builders Association and a Vero Beach general contractor.”
“The median sales price for an existing single-family home in the area dropped 17 percent to $202,000 in September compared with $244,300 last year.”
“‘I think this shows that we’re still an affordable community,’ said Sheri Wetzel, president of the Realtors Association of St. Lucie County. ‘Where else can you find a waterfront community and find affordable housing that a family can make payments on?’”
“Statewide, home sales dropped 38 percent to 8,688 in September from the same month of 2006, the state association said.”
The News Press. “Debra McAlister-Brown’s not too concerned she’s had to cut the price of her home in today’s falling market.”
“McAlister-Brown has her 2,000-square-foot, four-bedroom house in Estero for sale at $329,000, newly reduced from $364,900. She originally listed it at $399,000 when she decided to sell and move to Stoneybrook. But time has not been on her side.”
“In Lee County, compared to a year ago, September’s numbers also were bleak: The price was down 11 percent, from $261,400, and sales were down 53 percent compared with 693 in September 2006.”
“McAlister-Brown said she’s philosophical, having made $10,000 in 2005 when she sold a 1,600-square-foot house for $360,000 to buy the one in Fountain Lakes for $350,000. ‘At the time when I bought it, it was a really good deal,’ she said. ‘I’m really not losing like a lot of people.’”
“In Charlotte County, the median sales price was $170,000, down 20 percent from $213,200 in September 2006. The number of sales also fell, 16 percent, from 226 to 189.”
“Her listing agent, Kerry Collier, said, ‘If someone’s going to buy a home and sell it in a year or two, I’d be cautious.’”
The Naples News. “Looking forward, numbers Brett Ellis, a partner with The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group in Fort Myers, uses to predict future statistics don’t bode well for the short term. Using a formula based on the number of active listings and the number of pending sales to come up with a current market index, Ellis doesn’t see good things for October or even November figures.”
“‘The index tells me this market has not bottomed out yet,’ he said.”
“The 15,438 single-family homes on the market in Lee County translates to about a three-year inventory, he said. He estimates that the 8,212 condominiums for sale is about a five-year inventory.”
“‘Right now the buyer is actually looking at the best of both worlds — lower prices and lots of houses to pick from,’ he said.”
The Tampa Tribune. “Home sellers in the Tampa Bay area appear be coming around to the idea that striking a deal in this sluggish market means lowering prices. But buyers appear to be holding out.”
“The median sales price of existing, single-family homes in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area in September fell 10 percent to $200,700 compared with the same month last year, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“The number of homes sold plummeted 40 percent in September to 1,691, compared with the same month last year when 2,803 were sold.”
“‘Halloween came a little early for the Florida housing market,’ said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst based in Jupiter. ‘These numbers are scary.’”
“The condo market continued to slow statewide. Sales fell 37 percent and prices slid 4 percent to a median of $194,200.”
“Local real estate agents have been trying to persuade clients to price homes realistically. Nancy Otten, an agent in Tampa, said sellers are getting the message and buyers are getting more home for their money.”
“‘You can put any kind of offer out there and see what sticks,’ Otten said. ‘There are phenomenal deals out there.’”
The St Petersburg Times. “As sales continue to plummet in the Tampa Bay area, sellers are finally waking up to the fact that they’ll have to lower their prices if they hope to get rid of their property.”
“The price slashing should provide psychological relief for entry-level workers and other wanna-be home buyers, who could have snapped up a home in the $130,000s if they’d been buying five years ago. The median housing price here hasn’t dipped below the $200,000 mark - or come close to it - since May of 2005.”
“Michael Bullock, the president of Michael’s Carpet & Vinyl in Lakeland, says a year ago, about three-quarters of his jobs were in new or remodeled homes. Now, about three-quarters of his jobs are in office buildings. He knows of two nearby carpet stores that were recently shuttered because they did only residential jobs.”
“‘I’m not hearing anything’ from home builders, said Bullock.”
The Miami Herald. “Prices of homes and condos in Broward County dropped in September compared with a year ago, a sign that stubborn sellers may finally be accepting the reality that they are no longer able to get the sky-high prices of the boom years.”
“Broward’s single-family home sales were off last year’s number by 46 percent; condo sales declined 39 percent. But prices also fell — the median home price down 7 percent year-over-year to $345,200 while condo prices slipped 15 percent to $174,600.”
“In Miami-Dade, single-family home sales were more than cut in half for the month, dropping 53 percent from September 2006. Condo sales were similarly off 47 percent. The number of homes for sale has continued to balloon. A record number of new condos will be completed in 2008, and many observers predict that those units will go back on the market for sale and add to the existing overhang of condos for sale.”
“‘Too many sellers are still refusing to face reality, that all of the inflated prices and price increases over the last few years was not realistic. They think they should still be entitled to the same prices as their neighbors a few years ago,’ real estate analyst Jack Winston said.”
“Gabriella Berenyi, a seller in Oakland Park, said she will not budge further on her price. Nearly a year ago she put her three-bedroom lakefront condo up for sale, asking $289,000. She found few interested buyers, and the ones she found couldn’t qualify for a mortgage. So she dropped her price to $279,000.”
“‘This has been the worst experience,’ she said. ‘But I don’t believe in going down too low [on the price] because I invested so much remodeling it. If I go down too low, I can’t get any money out of it. So I am trying to rent it out now; people say prices will go up in six months or a year.’”
The Sun Sentinel. “September’s home sales plummeted in Palm Beach County. In the coming weeks and months, buyers should expect sellers to keep dropping home prices, experts said.”
“‘In last 60 days, anecdotally we’re hearing about a lot more capitulations on part of sellers,’ said Brad Hunter, a housing analyst with Metrostudy in West Palm Beach.”
“In September, sales of existing homes in Palm Beach County declined 17 percent to 471 from 566 a year ago, FAR said Wednesday. The county’s condominium market also was sluggish last month. Sales fell 29 percent, and the median price of $180,000 dropped 18 percent from $220,500 a year ago.”
“Joel and Linda Levy have been trying to sell their three-bedroom home in a gated community west of Boynton Beach for about two months. They think their asking price of $389,900 is a good value, but the couple may have to consider dropping the price.”
“‘A lot of people liked it very much, but no one has offered a penny yet,’ Linda Levy said.”
“Area real estate agents and experts say sellers still have room to lower their asking prices. ‘Sellers need to get a grip,’ said David Dweck, head of the Boca Real Estate Investment Club. Homeowners are not likely to sell their homes if they’re not ‘priced slightly below the market and your property is not beautiful,’ he said. ‘Buyers have their pick of the litter.’”
“Home prices also are being affected by the increasing number of mortgage foreclosures. ‘The banks are starting to deal,’ Dweck said. ‘Banks will have to liquidate to get off the book by year’s end.’”
“But existing homeowners trying to sell will be competing with builders, some of whom are slashing prices to reduce their inventory by the end of the year.”
The Bradenton Herald. “Bradenton-Sarasota’s once soaring existing-home prices, which two years ago were $90,000 more than the state median, are now less than $25,000 above it, according to numbers released Wednesday by the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“‘Short sales and foreclosures have definitely affected the price point,’ said May Aston, 2007 president of the Manatee Association of Realtors.”
“Aston also attributes the falling home prices, in part, to more realistic sellers. ‘I think people are realizing they are not going to get the prices they wanted,’ Aston said.”
“In some areas throughout the county, prices have returned to 2004 levels, but every street is different in the settling market.”
“Lower prices have brought back a familiar face to the market: the investor. ‘They are the ones buying the foreclosures,’ Aston said.”
“Most are only buying homes they can snap up at way below market value.”
“Although current sales numbers appear bleak compared to the go-go years of the real estate boom, 2007 is on track to be the fifth highest year on record for existing home sales, said Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors.”
The Herald Tribune. “The state’s real estate agents sold just 8,688 homes last month, down 38 percent from a year earlier. But the number looks even worse when you compare it with previous years. In September 2003, agents handled 18,222 transactions, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. Their records go back to 1993, when September sales totaled 9,249.”
“‘If you look at the existing home numbers for the nation as a whole it is the same story, and Florida is just worse,’ said economist Adam York of Wachovia Corp.”
“The median price for a home in the Sarasota-Bradenton market during January 2006 was $353,500. From then until now, the two-county area has taken a 31 percent hit, or $109,200 off the median price.”
“In Charlotte County-North Port, the median went from $227,400 in early 2006 to $170,000 last month, a 25 percent drop.”
“The incoming president of the Florida Association of Realtors, Chuck Bonfiglio Sr., joked that he asked if he could go from president-elect to immediate past-president. ‘But they wouldn’t let me,’ said Bonfiglio, who works in Fort Lauderdale.”
“His market suffered so much so that its single-family home sales for the month were actually less than in the Sarasota-Bradenton market, at 441 transactions. The figure was off nearly 50 percent from one year earlier.”
“David Dutch just landed a waterfront house on Longboat Key for what he thinks was a great deal. Previously, Dutch had found he ‘couldn’t touch anything under a million directly on the bay.’”
“The seller for Dutch’s house was a speculator with multiple mortgages, including an ARM with a fast-approaching reset. The seller’s original asking price was $1.5 million, but he got no offers. Then he dropped it to $1.3 million. Still no offers.”
“‘The seller received a $1.1 million offer a while back, which was rejected,’ said Dutch, who bought for $800,000. ‘It felt good.’”
“Dutch thinks the local real estate market is still a couple of years away from normalcy. ‘Did we catch the bottom? I don’t know, but I think that Florida rose and fell the fastest, so hopefully we bought at the right time,’ he said.”
“The developer of Thomas Ranch, an area which is primed for 15,000 homes, will be allowed to extend the town-sized development into one of the last remaining rural tracts in south Sarasota County.”
“The 2,850-acre property’s rural land use already allowed about 1,000 homes in an area that county planners said could be overburdened by the more than 15,000 homes already approved for south Sarasota County and North Port.”
“‘There is not a need for additional capacity’ in housing, county Planning Director Anne McClung told the commission.”
“The dissenting commissioners echoed the comments of residents, who questioned both the need and the timing of the proposal. ‘Call me crazy,’ said Englewood resident Kellie Pearson, ‘but I don’t see why we need another 6,000 homes.’”
‘The price slashing should provide psychological relief for entry-level workers and other wanna-be home buyers, who could have snapped up a home in the $130,000s if they’d been buying five years ago.’
I detect a FB reporter.
The funny thing is, this reporter doesn’t realize these were the ‘greater fools’ his ‘investment’ was supposed to sell to, not all of the non-existent rich people he was hpoing for.
$130,000 is a price point for entry-level workers? Maybe for entry-level brain surgeons. Perhaps I’m naive, but $130,000 still seems like a heck of a lot of money to me, even at mid-career.
It’s a lot of money to me too. A 20% down payment on that would be $26,000.
In our town, the median household income is $50k, so the median home should be around $150k (and it was even 4 years ago). In reality, I don’t think you could even find a 2/1 shack for that price.
I detect a FB reporter.
You are correct Ben. In fact, prices have not dropped that much in the Tampa Bay area. The current home pricing levels in our area are not inline with the incomes and still have a long way to fall. However, when you add in our taxes, insurance and HOA fee’s to the current home prices, the situation becomes worse for the buyer. Based on what I am seeing in the area, it will probally be in late 2008 and more like the second quarter of 2009 before themarket hits bottom.
You’re being optimistic IMO. The way this thing’s playing out bottom in nominal $$ won’t be until probably 2010 or 2011. Bottom in inflation-adjusted $$ probably won’t be until 2015, or maybe even 2020.
You’re being optimistic IMO.
It’s all that cheerleading from the NAR that could be distorting and clouding my better judgement. I agree with you based on the past history of the 1980-82 downturn and this looks much worse!
So I am trying to rent it out now; people say prices will go up in six months or a year.’”
Wow! You got the skinny from the most reliable of sources:
PEOPLE!
LOL! I see a foreclosure in her future. Or at least, a short sale.
Think about it. How much does it suck to have to say you lost money in the biggest housing bubble in history? That takes real talent!
Yes, I think that’s why there is so much resistance to lowering prices.
How big of a crime would it be if by some miracle prices did rise in six months and these idiots were redeemed? That would be unbearable. Simply, the market must continue down if there exists any form of justice.
Don’t worry, even if that happens, they”ll take the “gains” and plow them into another higher priced alligator.
Certainly easier than running some numbers on it all. Just sit back and passively glean information, even if it is incorrect.
Just another version of happy talk. Actually, it’s a convenient way of abdicating responsibility for your own decisions. Reminds me of the movie Idiocracy where they justified irrigating crops with Brawno Sports Drink because it’s has electrolytes, and they justified the electrolytes because ‘it’s what plants crave.’ Classic movie. The quick segway (sp) scene where they show the new scene is in Washington DC and they have a quick shot of the Washington Monument and people hanging out at the reflecting pool with dozens of waverunners scooting abut is friggin’ hilarious.
“But I don’t believe in going down too low [on the price] because I invested so much remodeling it.”
I used to think that the return on putting new stuff into an old house was about 50 cents on the dollar. Now it looks like the value of a house goes down by a buck or two for every one you put into it, just because of the time that passes while you “remodel”.
You don’t have to “go down” lady. Simply let the house take you down.
Back in the olden days, you could only expect to get back something like 90 cents for every dollar you put into a remodel. And that was the best-case scenario. Usually, your ROI was much lower than 90 cents on the dollar.
and given the God-awful tastes many people have in “remodeling”, it’s no wonder so many of these tarted-up shitboxes stick around so long on the MLS. why do so many people think that tile in every room is such a stupendous idea? the minute i see that, i am on to the next house. ditto with Pergo “wood” floors. and granite countertops….ugh. good luck with that.
This is the woman who dropped her price from $289 to $279. You expect brains?
Nearly a year ago she put her three-bedroom lakefront condo up for sale, asking $289,000. She found few interested buyers, and the ones she found couldn’t qualify for a mortgage.
I hate to break it to you Gabrielle, but if people couldn’t qualify last year at $289k, the chances that they’ll qualify this year at $279k, well …
well, if people are saying that …. it must be true!
haha
Quote:
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well, if people are saying that …. it must be true!
haha
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I would rather turn GAY then marry this spaghetti-brain for a wife. Man, talk about DUMB and STUPID… What an idiot !!!
“The median price for a home in the Sarasota-Bradenton market during January 2006 was $353,500. From then until now, the two-county area has taken a 31 percent hit, or $109,200 off the median price.”
“In Charlotte County-North Port, the median went from $227,400 in early 2006 to $170,000 last month, a 25 percent drop.”
WOW!
Yeah - those numbers got a big “Holy freaking cow!” from me too. After a slight spring pause, the Sarasota-Bradenton numbers have absolutely fallen off a cliff:
Mar 291.0
Apr 294.8
May 294.7
Jun 292.7
Jul 277.7
Aug 273.5
Sep 244.3
I stated a few months ago that IMO the west coast of Florida is the number one hot spot for the bubble burst. Today’s numbers show the title is retained.
I’m happy since I’d like to buy something there some day. Unfortunately I have in-laws with homes there, however they were bought pre-bubble (with no HELOC) so they’ll be OK.
mrktMaven FL,
It will end up much worse than this. I was talking with a long time resident/homeowner the other day. At the peak houses on his street in Sarasota were selling for 375-400k. His neighbor bought a place in Tenn. Needed to sell. After 18 months it ended up selling for 181k. The neighbor walked away with 2k after all was said and done.
The best part..The friend thinks houses on his street might end up under 100k when its all said and done…Florida is ugly.
Here is something to think about…What if ya had a sh!tload of paid for rentals. You are undercutting EVERYBODY in town and still having problems filling your units. IMHO Cape Coral could end up the worst on the west coast. Thats where the rentals are fyi.
Chris
Chris, where have ya been? Good to see you. Missed ya, bud.
Palmetto,
Wayyyyyyyyyyy to much work lately,hopefully next month it slows down just a touch.
Chris
Quick story here, buddy down in CC is trying to paste back together a river house that he bought for 1.2m at the height of the insanity and had gutted for a remodel. He has had the same tile guy for about 6 years who has done dozens of jobs for him. The guy came over two weeks ago whining about how he is getting stiffed by owners now and can my buddy give him a bit “upfront”? Well, you guessed it, buddy writes a check for a few grand and that’s the last he saw of the guy. He also reported that lots of subs have departed the area and he is finding it hard to find reliable help.
2007 is on track to be the fifth highest year on record for existing home sales, said Lawrence Yun…
What a tool! Who cares? It’s over.
That statistic is actually rather indicative of how much 2008 is going to suck.
Made up mostly of deeds in lieu of foreclosure
“Lower prices have brought back a familiar face to the market: the investor. ‘They are the ones buying the foreclosures,’ Aston said.”
“Most are only buying homes they can snap up at way below market value.”
People will not sell below market value (unless to families). If I can list a house for $200K and someone will buy it for $200K (fair market value), why the hell would I sell it for less than that. If I list the house at $200K and people laugh at me and the house sits there for a year, that 200k is not fair market value. If I lower the price, that’s not below market value-that’s below original listing ( wishing) price.
“people will not sell below market value”
This is true. When the house actually sells, that establishes the house’s market value. All else is meaningless.
Another way to make $$$ in the housing collapse!
1. Find documented statements from Realtors saying they sold a house “below market value”
2. If something was really below market value, in the eyes of the IRS, the difference between FMV and your price may be a “gift”. Amount over $12,000 is taxable as income
3. Report the buyer and seller to IRS. Use this form http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f3949a.pdf
4. IRS will give you 10% of the $$$ it collects based on your report!
(In all seriousness, some hungry little lawfirm can probably find evidence of fraud in public records and report folks to the IRS and collect. If you had access to the “stated incomes” on mortgage applications, for example, hold these folks accountable for the income they claim they earned.)
The economic ignorance is amazing. I’ve lost count of the number of articles that cite some realtor saying homes are selling for “below market value”. When prices were rising were they selling for “above market value”?
I laugh anytime I hear “buy below market value”. That has got to be the single most idiotic phase anyone could ever use.
I used to buy computer networking hardware and other things on eBay. From time to time companies would offer me a lot more than I paid. It *is* possible to buy things below market value.
But probably not from a realtor.
Can you imagine if they pulled back the ability to find out what the previous sales prices were from the local gov’t?
“The dissenting commissioners echoed the comments of residents, who questioned both the need and the timing of the proposal. ‘Call me crazy,’ said Englewood resident Kellie Pearson, ‘but I don’t see why we need another 6,000 homes.”
But they are stuck, don’t build and they lose a lot of jobs, do build and property prices keep going down.
Interesting that we don’t hear much about that shortage anymore.
“‘Right now the buyer is actually looking at the best of both worlds — lower prices and lots of houses to pick from,’ he said.”
Uh, genius. The two usually go hand in hand. Cripes, I can’t take much more of this, these mealy mouthed pronouncements of the obvious, re-packaged as if it’s a new, unusual concept.
“Her listing agent, Kerry Collier, said, ‘If someone’s going to buy a home and sell it in a year or two, I’d be cautious.’”
Man, nothing like exposure to the bright light of searing intellect to make your day. Reading the comments off Ben’s blog day after day could sure get a person down - the moronic chatter out of the masses of RE agents does damage to any attempt at ‘professional’ positioning.
Wow, a couple goes in to Kerry’s office with plans to buy a home and sell it in a year in this housing market
and Kerry says “Wait a second..I’d be careful!”
Not only do they sell houses but they also strategerize and evaluate economic theories and current market conditions to benefit their customers financial expectations and goals! Real Estate agents; lifelong financial estate planners and friends.
I’d qualify that. Higher inventory doesn’t equal *lower* prices, it equals *falling* prices.
Prices are indeed lower now than 2 years ago, but that’s because inventory’s been high for 2 years. Back then inventory was high but prices certainly weren’t low. Conversely when the bottom is reached and we start back up again (about 8-12 years from now IMO), inventory will be back low, but prices will also be very low.
That was going to be my comment. Let me count the worlds: 1) sudden oversupply creates abundant selection and depresses prices. Uh, what’s the second world?
I’m really tired of making the same observation day after day. Mainstream media has blossomed into Orwell’s Ministry of Truth. I really, really wish we could push this into the realm of collective knowledge rather than throw our hands up and make sarcastic jokes every single day.
Leonard said it best: “I’ve seen the future, brother, and it is murder.”
“‘I think this shows that we’re still an affordable community,’ said Sheri Wetzel, president of the Realtors Association of St. Lucie County. ‘Where else can you find a waterfront community and find affordable housing that a family can make payments on?’”
The fact that many home insurers have pulled out of the Florida and no longer view the risk to reward ratio as being favorable, suggests that they believe in climate change, and are not Chicken Littles, merely realists…
Or in other words, Sheri:
Waterfront living is nice, but sea water on your front lawn is not so desirable.
Apart from strip malls, there is nothing in St. Lucie to support current prices. Sheri is a desperate delusion ramen eating realtor.
“Waterfront living is nice, but sea water on your front lawn is not so desirable.”
I saw video news reports just a couple of weeks ago on the disappearing beaches over on the east coast of FLA, mostly in the Palm Beach area. With or without global warming, this is what happens when people build too close to the water. Sand gets removed from one area by the elements and deposited in other areas. But it was fun to see the condo towers separated from the ocean by a mere sea wall, with said sea wall having a staircase descending to the water, with maybe just a little sand at low tide. When it comes to waterfront development in FLA, stupid is as stupid does.
They’ll just tout the properties by the water as less lawn to maintain. They spin everything.
Do you know about that island off Africa where the western half is slowly breaking off? If it does separate and fall into the Atlantic, it will create tsunamis over 100 feet tall on the east coast of Florida. Imagine being on the 10 floor of the condo you mention, watching an eye-level wall of water rushing towards you. Some estimates put the expected tsunamis at 600 ft tall.
This I find hard to believe, particularly for a landslide. An underwater earthquake with 1000 square miles of ocean floor being lifted vertically 6 inches has a hell of a lot more energy than a couple of cubic miles of dirt sliding down a hill. Plus, as the wave extends out from that landslide the arc of that wave (it won’t travel in a straight line like a laser preserving all of it’s energy in one direction) will decrease the amount of energy arriving at anyone point, like moving further and further away from a point light source, it gets dimmer and dimmer. Granted, there will be some wave action, but not like the Discovery Channel is showing like a 100 foot high wall of water (that stays 100 feet high behind it for 5 miles) from Nova Scotia to Miami. That’s just ludicrous. The amount of energy they showing there, if you added up all the cubic feet of water, would require a meteor 100 miles long, 100 miles wide and 1 miles deep, even if dropped gently into the ocean, to have that kind of effect on the Atlantic Basin. That’s just BS sensationalist shite. Let’s say there’s roughly 72million cubic miles of water in the Atlantic and you drop that 10,000 cubic mile asteroid into it, yeah, you might get that 100 foot high wall of water 5 miles in depth from nova scotia to miami, but certainly not from a stupid landslide.
Yep, another “urban legend” perpetuated by people who don’t understand the science.
Whether or not landslides from the mainland can cause such tsunamis is questionable, but the term “urban legend” is probably better reserved for things which have no basis in fact, whereas there is at least an archaelogical record of unfathomably large tsunamis. The basis for this “legend” is probably the record of an ancient tsunami caused by the eruption and disintegration of an island volcano in Hawai’i. I am working from memory, and don’t have exact details, but its height was determinable by marine deposits on one of the nearby islands. Heights were well over 100 feet - 1000 feet would actually be a closer order of magnitude.
There is dispute about how big it could be, but the researchers who did the original work are sticking by their guns.
Palmetto, I can tell you that I have been closely watching this happening for the past five years.
There are 5 ft sand “cliffs” where the ocean has ripped the beach away.
“McAlister-Brown said she’s philosophical, having made $10,000 in 2005 when she sold a 1,600-square-foot house for $360,000 to buy the one in Fountain Lakes for $350,000. ‘At the time when I bought it, it was a really good deal,’ she said. ‘I’m really not losing like a lot of people.’”
- Debra has what is called ‘Fuzzy Logic’….she should use it as an indicator and trade the stock market. 10k = WTF!
And of course, she hasn’t actually SOLD her house yet, so just might not get that asking price, perhaps? $10k, $20k, $90k, it’s all just philosophy.
That reminds me of the people on the “What is My House Worth” show on television. They jump up and down when the realtor tells them what their house would list for. My wife is getting tired of hearing me say, “Yeah, but what will it sell for?”
Paper profits on stocks can be realized quickly because of the liquid market. Paper profits on houses right now are not even worth the paper they were printed on.
“September’s home sales plummeted in Palm Beach County. In the coming weeks and months, buyers should expect sellers to keep dropping home prices, experts said.”
As this continues I don’t know how the median will continue to be propped up. $355,300 is the median in Palm Beach County right now. There are thousands of homes listed well below the median. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…this figure is not indicative of what it takes to purchase a normal home in Palm Beach County. More accurately we’re looking at $125 per square foot under air for newer construction. Older homes have retreated to $100 per square foot.
Bad Andy,
What towns/zip codes do you see $125-$100 per sq.ft in PBC? In the Delray Beach/Boca Raton area I still see around $170 average, some near $140, and only a few around $125, talking a basic 3/2.
Thanks
The AP says “housing prices rebound in September”.
It’s really unbelievable. We have sales at the lowest level in 25 years, and we get one microscopic uptick and the AP heralds it as a “rebound”.
The AP is the mouthpiece of all but 1/2 a dozen newspapers in the land…
If they said it, it must be true.
Print it.
An uptick soon to be revised downward.
CNN was the only one who called it right; their headline reads: New Home Sales Hammered Again.
http://tinyurl.com/3xrke9
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that homebuilder stocks are up on the glorious news:
“Homebuilders across S&P indexes rallied 2 percent after new U.S. home sales unexpectedly rose in September after figures for previous months were revised down. Purchases increased 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 770,000 that matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. ”
Wow, it matched the median forecast. What a coincidence.
wait untill september figures reviesed in October !!!!
Here’s what’s about to happen again with gold and silver:
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
Woops… here’s what’s about to happen again with gold and silver:
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au75-79.gif
“Lower prices have brought back a familiar face to the market: the investor. ‘They are the ones buying the foreclosures,’ Aston said.”
“Most are only buying homes they can snap up at way below market value.”
You keep using that word ……(market value) i dont think it means what you think it means……
Inigo Montoya - Princess Bride
Is “investor” in this context simply a more polite way of saying “idiot”? Because it sure seems that way…
Ya all gotta check this out, “horror” stories about not using an real estate attorney….quite interesting
http://www.myrealestatestory.com/
I couldn’t reach the link.
Brought to you by the real estate attorneys?
“All real people participants signed a sworn affidavit stating that their stories are true. Participants were paid a promotional fee for use of their likeness.”
Just talked with my Oracle software sales rep. He said things in FLORIDA are slow. No one is buying software. He said the state is in a depression it seems.
Florida is the 38yr old former high school prom queen everyone wanted to screw … then eventually did !
They all switched to PostgreSQL ….
Devil’s Night came a little early to SoCal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil’s_Night
Stocks are up on better than expected new home sales.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071025/economy.html
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes posted an unexpected gain in September although the improvement came after sales had fallen to the slowest pace in more than a decade.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that sales of new homes rose by 4.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 units. That level of activity was still 23.3 percent below a year ago, indicating that housing remains in a steep downturn.
This is after builders dropped prices and took a bath on these albatrosses.
I’m not sure the builders took a bath, yet.
How hard is it to count hew homes sold?
September new home sales came in at 770K, well below the 790K sold in August. Right?
Wrong! The August sales were revised down to 735K making Spetember’s sales over 4.5% up from August.
Hmmm, I wonder how much September’s number will be revised down next month.
At least the Homebuilders are kicking butt today on the “good news.”
Remember, for new home starts/sales, 2 million is a good year, 1.5 million an average year, 1 million a bad year. We are below a bad year on sales, but still above it on starts.
I can see revising up (perhaps some counties were slow to record transactions in their public records), but *down*? I can’t see how that could possibly happen.
My understanding is that the reason that new home sales are continually revised is that they are counted when escrow opens, whereas existing home sales are reported when escrow closes.
If this is not accurate, could someone please correct me, and if it is accurate, can someone please explain what the reason for this is. Why on earth would there be a difference in the way they count them?
“M-LEC seems to be designed not just to avoid fire sales but also to prevent price discovery,” wrote Bernard Connolly, chief global strategist at American International Group’s Banque AIG unit in London. “It stinks, as does the Treasury’s sponsorship of the scheme. But the state of financial markets and of the global economy is such that the authorities and market participants around the world are going to have to hold their noses.”
The M-LEC fund probably spells the end of SIVs, now that the flaws in their business model have been revealed. “These markets may not look the same when they re-emerge,” Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner said in a Washington panel discussion earlier this week. Finance’s creative minds will be busy solving the mess they made, with new whiz-bang proposals likely to fall on deaf ears for a while yet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aGss3X9W_SD8&refer=home
A friend of my dad’s here in FL who worked for a company for 30 years, 30 years! just got laid off. Sad sad sad…
It’s just the beginning….
Howdy everyone:
From my neck of the woods, here in Winter Haven:
…
Its gettin’ REAL bad around here folks. REAL BAD.
One of my fishin’ buddies is/was in Real Estate as an agent. He is now three months behind on his McMansion and his 25yr old “trophy wife” of the last 18 months is lookin’ to bail. He caught her out with one of her college-aged ex-boyfriends the other night. She doesn’t know that he knows yet, however. He is near my age, 38 years old. Looks like he can no longer afford to feed and water his pet girl and his house has become a gator that has its jaws clinched tightly onto his wallet.
I went to the wedding a year and a half ago and I knew that it wouldn’t last.
Anyhow, we were out drinkin’ some coldies and fishin’ on Lake Kissimmee a couple of weeks ago and he is now seriously considering leaving the keys on the countertop, the girlie back at her Mom’s house in Tampa and headin’ back to the hills in WV where he ( and myself ) were born and raised.
This story is going to be repeated over-and-over in the coming months. Many marriages down here in Central Florida were formed around the promise of a good life and the Easy Money.
The Easy Money stopped about six months ago, according to my friend.
..
Ummm…uhhh…
Meant to link to article, made an HTML mistake.
Clicking anywhere on my above story will take you to the Polk Online article.
Too much caffeine….sorry:)
HAHA that Trophy WIFE will have to file for BK and be responsible for 1/2 the debts too…….Plus she won’t get alimony if he’s broke….
FAIR IS FAIR!…….
…………………………………………..
Girly Girl won’t see a dime.
He filmed his soon-too-be-ex-wife wigglin’ around on some goateed, Toy-Boy twentysomething’s lap. In some bar. With his cellphone.
He has given a copy of said filmage to his divorce attorney for safekeeping.
He said papers go out next week. This young woman is about to learn a lesson about honesty, fidelity, and loyalty.
There will be no contest to this divorce from her. He has other, more “incriminating” evidence that doesn’t need sharing on this blog
UH… I think you forgot FINANCES………LOL
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This young woman is about to learn a lesson about honesty, fidelity, and loyalty.
Well it’ll be interesting to see how that divorce comes out.
Remember when I told you about the jeweler that caught his wife in bed and divorced her. Last night I’m watching the news and there he is big as life in an orange jail jumpsuit, I almost choked on my coffee. The news said city councilman jailed.
He was supposed to pay the ex-wife $150,000 plus $2000 a month for a certain period of time. He didn’t pay her and her attorney took him to court. The judge sentenced him to jail and fined him. He never showed up for jail, they issued a bench warrant and he went into hiding, and apparently turned himself in on Mon. This is the least of his worries, since he’s being investigated for using a 1.9M diamond for collateral on a business loan of his. He had sold the diamond to someone else and was holding it for them in the jewelry store safe. Plus National City is forcing him to court to change his Chpt 13 to to Chpt 7 liquidation, since he owes them large loans for store inventory. Yet he still has 2 of the 3 houses he bought. Prime example of living way, way beyond your means.
“Any good news in the housing market…” In the 30+ seconds of conversation with the anchors, Jenna Lee on Foxnews just quibbled with the positive spin of the increase in home sales number. Last comment began sorta like: Any good news in the stock market…
Too bad it is being followed by a segment on yacht sales. Might have gotten some decent news if the yacht sales had been tossed and an adult had been in the room.
“‘This has been the worst experience,’ she said. ‘But I don’t believe in going down too low [on the price] because I invested so much remodeling it. If I go down too low, I can’t get any money out of it. So I am trying to rent it out now; people say prices will go up in six months or a year.’”
Sorry to inform you that market prices really do not care how much you spent on remodeling. It is worth what someone is willing and ABLE to give you at that moment, irregardless of what your existing mortgage and previous cash outlay was. If it is higher, you win and pocket the difference. If it is less, then you sell and lose, or choose to hold onto the hungry alligator until you choose to sell or lose to foreclosure.
“Irregardless” IS NOT A WORD.
It is a misuse of the word “regardless” by analogizing to words that do use the “ir” prefix to indicate a negative.
“Usage note IRREGARDLESS is considered nonstandard because of the two negative elements ir- and -less. It was probably formed on the analogy of such words as irrespective, irrelevant, and irreparable.”
“Nonstandard” means uneducated, grammatically illiterate and lacking in correct vocabulary.
Knew a judge once who threw a brief back at a lawyer who persisted in using that word in the document and told him to go use a dictionary if he was that incompetent.
Buy a dictionary or at least check an online dictionary
What is it with real estate, and dumb broads with hyphenated names?
“McAlister-Brown said she’s philosophical, having made $10,000 in 2005 when she sold a 1,600-square-foot house for $360,000 to buy the one in Fountain Lakes for $350,000. ‘At the time when I bought it, it was a really good deal,’ she said. ‘I’m really not losing like a lot of people.’”
I received this URL from Peter Schiff’s company yesterday. It shows predictions he and others made in December 2006. It is amusing to see how the so-called “experts” got it all wrong, including Ben Stein.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZV5jt9puc
Thing is, this blog collectively predicted the same back in 2004 & 2005.
Stein couldn’t find Ferris Bueler what makes anyone think he has any brains.
Now the rumor of the day is AIG will take a 10B writedown. At least this time it’s a negative rumor.
But I thought Warren Buffett was going to bail them out?
Caroline Baum from Bloomberg had a recent review of a book by Paul Krugman. She derided his view on the New Deal and said his views and the New Deal were akin to a centrally planned economy.
my response
You compared the New Deal to a centrally planned economy. Isn’t the governments response to the recent melt down in CDO’s and mortgage debt a better example of a centrally planned economy. The only difference is that this economy is planned for the benefit of the elite.
I saw an interview of Krugman the other day (bloomberg via internet). He seems big on increasing the EITC (”Earned” income tax credit). A relative of mine does taxes, and every year he sees a load of people come in. They know about how much money to make the entire year so that they get the full $6000 to $9000 back from the EITC with their two kids. He said that they used to do a scheme where they would loan kids out (above kid #2) to friends so they could claim them and get their big checks too.
I dunno if welfare wrapped in the tax system is really the best way to go. Why is it even called earned if you didn’t pay anything in.
I own “The Great Unraveling”, and generally read his columns. But i think it would be a better society if those on top rewarded those who made them their money (Walmart employees or whatever) versus having a system where those on the bottom get free handouts by only working a certain amount and quitting, and by pumping out kids. The higher EITC thing bugged me.
Relative also said the people have no issue with paying out $500+ so they get their $6000 checks tomorrow versus waiting two weeks. Since they didn’t really work for it, they don’t seem to care. Also, they often come in after sitting on the papers for a month or more.
The EITC helps overcome one great inequity in the tax system- the high rate of Social Security taxes. That’s 7.65% of every single dollar the working poor earn. I’m retired now, and I remember that the SS tax rate was only about 3% (maybe less) when I first started working. When you include Social Security and Medicare, the overall tax bite now is MUCH higher than it was 30+ years ago. Remember, the employer is paying another 7.65%.
Oh right….I’m sure those families much prefer trying to live on $15,000,$20000 or $30000 a year just to get $6000 or so (and i have never seen a EITC go that high.)
No problem at all how to figure out how to feed, house and clothe 2 - 4 people on $1250 -2500 gross a month (or about $1100 - 2000 net and spendable income.)
The ones who watch earnings so as to qualify for the EITC are probably at the point that they can’t make enough to earn the amount equal to the ETIC so they earn a little less to maximize income.
Better idea is to tax all unearned income at the same rate as earned income and hit it for FICA and FUTA (Social Security, Medicare and unemployment.)
The AP headline reads “Stocks Dip on New Home Sales Data.” I thought stocks were supposed to go up on news like that. Maybe I just don’t understand the logic of stock traders.
It seems lately that good economic data has made the stock market go down while bad data made the market go up…
Investors get hopeful that the Fed will lower rates when bad economic data is released, and the reverese when good data is released.
The stock market is all a perception and has little relation to economic fundamentals.
Now wait a second, good news is bad becasue the Fed may not ease, and bad news is good because it may cause the Fed to ease, and Fed easing would bring good news, but good news is bad…….
Seems kind of circular
Caroline Baum of Bloomberg recently wrote a review of a book by Paul Krugman. She compared his ideas to the New Deal and the New Deal to centrally planned economies.
My response
You compared the New Deal to a centrally planned economy. Isn’t the governments response to the recent melt down in CDO’s and mortgage debt a better example of a centrally planned economy. This one of course benefiting the elite.
I know this is a Florida thread, but I had to share the information I just got from Myrtle Beach, SC.
I have been watching this area for possible future rental properties. I had not seen a very large impact to the RE — until this…
Area home sales see steep decrease
Area home sales see steep decrease
Myrtle Beach area home sales during the third quarter declined 26.77 percent compared with the third quarter last year - a drop almost three times greater than the state average, according to the S.C. Association of Realtors’ report released this week.
They fell more than home sales in Charleston, which saw a 18.78 percent drop; Columbia, with a 4.53 percent drop; and Greenville, with a 2.34 percent drop. Hilton Head Island saw a 7.8 percent increase in sales.
Across the state, there was a 9.64 percent decline.
The median sales price in the Myrtle Beach area also fell to $194,000, a 3.48 percent decline compared with the third quarter of last year. Homes spent an average of 209 days on the market - an 11.15 percent increase.
Myrtle Beach statistics include Myrtle Beach, North Myrtle Beach, Conway and Georgetown.
Isnt SC the place where one of the Flippers on TV is based. Would be interesting to look at his website.
“‘A lot of people liked it very much, but no one has offered a penny yet,’ Linda Levy said.”
I like a lot of houses too, but I wouldn’t pay the ridiculous wishing prices of most sellers.
Quote:
#####
“‘This has been the worst experience,’ she said. ‘But I don’t believe in going down too low [on the price] because I invested so much remodeling it. If I go down too low, I can’t get any money out of it. So I am trying to rent it out now; people say prices will go up in six months or a year.’”
#####
Sometimes HOPE can be a good thing in life.
Sometimes though HOPE can be a BAD thing in life as the illusion of a life-saver prevents the drownable person to swim for the nearest shore instead of waiting and hoping for a rescued Coast Guard cutter to drop by and pick them up.
I don’t think “Gabriella Berenyi, a seller in Oakland Park” is an able swimmer !
The expense of maintaining the house, yard and pool is too much. In Ogle’s mind, the 10-year-old home is no longer an investment but a money vacuum. A young arsonist’s visit in May burned a bigger hole in his pocket, costing him hundreds of dollars.”
“‘For me, it’s been enough of a nightmare,’ said Ogle, who put the house back on the market in June. Now, almost four months later ‘I’m looking for somebody who has something I’d rather have.’”
Hey jessie how’s the American dreamboat treaten ya?
Oh the price you does matter? Hear that leslie and Ying Yang Yun.
“The median price for a home in the Sarasota-Bradenton market during January 2006 was $353,500. From then until now, the two-county area has taken a 31 percent hit, or $109,200 off the median price.”
know someone that was boasting about 2 years ago how his sarsota residence doubled in 3 years. I shook my head thinking that that greedy smirk will be long gone. well it’s about to do a round trip back to his cost and probably go below it before this sewer bottoms.
OOOOEEEEOOOEEEOOOO
I have absolutely NO sympathy for the greedy POS who bought on pure speculation. They deserve what they will get.
I do, however, have alot for the poor “sub-prime” dolt who bought into the great “American dream” of being indebted to a piece of property and all of the “Fixin’s(taxes, maint., insurance, hot tubs….). They really never had a chance. Can you imagine sitting in an office with a lawyer, a realitor, and a banker after listening to the likes of Katie Couric, Al Greenspan, CNBC and the local AM radio financial wizards.
Never knew what hit ‘em!