Educating The Buying Public To Ask For Concessions
The New York realtors report on September sales. “Sales of existing single-family homes in New York state in September dropped to pre-boom levels for the month, posting a more than 20 percent decrease in sales compared to the same time last year, according to preliminary single-family sales data accumulated by the New York State Association of REALTORS. The statewide median sales price dropped 6.9 percent compared to September 2006.”
“‘The New York state housing market had been experiencing a soft landing from the boom market, and continues to do so despite this September drop in sales,” said Charles M. Staro, NYSAR CEO.”
The Staten Island Advance from New York. “The number of single-family homes sold in the borough dropped 22 percent last month and almost 40 percent from September 2005, according to state figures.”
“A total of 166 single-family homes sold on Staten Island last month, down from 213 in September 2006 and 295 in September 2005.”
The Times Union from New York. “Foreclosure filings in the Capital Region continue to skyrocket. Through the first nine months of 2007, 1,125 filings were made in the region’s four core counties, according to newly reported numbers from RealtyTrac. That’s more than double the 470 filings reported between January and September 2006.”
“Stephanie Galvin, a Cohoes-based counselor at the Albany County Rural Housing Alliance, said the nonprofit’s foreclosure-related workload has tripled in a year. ‘As of late, it’s the main topic I’m handling,’ she said.”
“‘Anybody could get a mortgage a year ago,’ Galvin said Wednesday. ‘If you were breathing, you could get a mortgage.’”
“‘We’ve been seeing it growing and growing over the last eight months,’ said Ellie Peppers, the Better Neighborhoods Inc.’s assistant director in Schenectady. ‘And we’ve been anticipating a rush of people in November, because that’s when a lot of the rates adjust.’”
“In each of the Capital Region’s four core counties, the number of foreclosure filings through Sept. 30 this year far surpasses the number reported during the same period in the prior two years.”
“The counselors concede homeowners are often partly to blame for their troubles. Some ignored advice or warning signs as they rushed to sign complicated paperwork.”
“‘People are very embarrassed,’ said Galvin. ‘They feel foolish, like they made bad decisions. And that may very well be the case, but they’re not alone.’”
The New Haven Register from Connecticut. “The median price for a home sold in Milford this year has dropped by about $5,000 to $335,000 from $340,000 last year, said Peter Spalthoff and owner of Shoreline Mortgage in Milford.”
“Statewide, prices for single family homes were down about 2.5 to 3 percent during the first quarter of this year. In most towns in the New Haven, Bridgeport, Norwich and Stamford metropolitan areas, prices declined 5 percent to 15 percent, according to a report by University of Connecticut professor John Clapp. During the second quarter, prices fell by another 1 percent before stagnating in the third quarter.”
“‘There has been a reduction in prices,’ said Ken D’Ademo, a realtor in Milford. ‘It has certainly turned toward a buyers market and we’re seeing the houses stay on the market for longer.’”
“‘It is probably wise to prepare for the possibility of two to three years where general inflation outpaces house prices, with declines more likely in the Fairfield County area,’ Clapp said.”
The Christian Science Monitor on Connecticut. “Even in some well-to-do communities, immune to the price drop until recently, prices are under pressure. That’s the case in Madison, Conn., where the average sale price is down 11.2 percent from last year.”
“‘There is downward pressure on prices, inventories have risen,’ says Brendan Grady, a regional VP for Caldwell Banker.”
The Wall Street Journal on Pennsylvania. “In Philadelphia, some condo developers are trying to attract buyers by offering to cover their monthly fees for the first year, says Virginia Jarden, a VP at Prudential Fox & Roach Realtors. She says developers also sometimes throw in a parking space or cover all or part of the real-estate transfer tax usually paid by the buyer.”
“‘By trumpeting discounts and other incentives, home builders are ‘educating the buying public to ask for concessions,’ Ms. Jarden says.”
The Times from New Jersey. “With bad news continuing to rattle the housing scene nationally, Mercer County’s real estate market appears hobbled but not crippled by the crisis.”
“The number of houses sold dropped by 12.2 percent in the same time period, the report said. New Jersey has had a decline of 13.4 percent in the number of home sales compared with last year.”
“The municipality with the largest drop in sales was Trenton, which fell from 874 properties sold in the first nine months of last year to 574 this year, a 34.3 percent decline.”
“Prudential Fox & Roach Senior VP Steve Storti said Trenton is joined by other urban areas that have seen record sales increases in recent years and are seeing drops this year.”
“Real estate appraiser Jeffrey Otteau, whose firm is based in East Brunswick, said the current downturn in real estate is affecting communities differently. ‘Over the past 25 years, all ships in the harbor rose equally with the tide change,’ Otteau said. ‘The current credit crunch in the mortgage market is mostly affecting those who are on the fringe of affordability.’”
“Mercer County Association of Realtors President John Terebey Jr. described the market as ‘fragile.’ He said that with continuing low interest rates, there are prime opportunities for those looking to buy ‘entry-level’ houses.”
“Most towns in the northern portion of the county saw price declines, led by Bordentown Township, which dropped from a price of $339,000 in the first nine months of 2006 to $278,450 in same period this year, a 17.9-percent fall.”
“Burlington County had a 16.5 percent drop in the number of homes through September of this year compared with 2006.”
“When the market began to slow in late 2005 and dropped in 2006, many real estate agents thought the market had reached a bottom, Storti said. However, problems with subprime mortgages this year continued to batter the market, he said.”
“‘I’m hopeful that you’ll see some stabilization going into next spring,’ Storti said.”
“Even in some well-to-do communities, immune to the price drop until recently, prices are under pressure. That’s the case in Madison, Conn., where the average sale price is down 11.2 percent from last year.”
Since when did Madison become “well to do”? When I wuz a pup, it was a fairly modest, pleasant middle/working class community, with maybe an estate or mansion here and there, but not exactl “well to do”, not in the way that term is understood in the Northeast.
FAKETORS
“Sales of existing single-family homes in New York state in September dropped to pre-boom levels for the month, posting a more than 20 percent decrease in sales compared to the same time last year, according to preliminary single-family sales data accumulated by the New York State Association of REALTORS. The statewide median sales price dropped 6.9 percent compared to September 2006.”
The NY realtor association plays more games than any other RE group in the nation, IMO.
Amen, Ben!
And check out my home boro - sales down the most in the whole state - 52% yoy -even by NYSAR figures (so you know it’s probably worse) - also down 35 pct in queens
They say median price is up too - could be –but now it’s obviously murdering sales. This coincides with my unscientific craigslist search tally of “sale” and “reduced” homes — around 3,000 and 300 for each search in april 06, and just this week averaging 8,000 or so ’sale’ but around 950 for ‘reduced’ listing - they have shot up in last couple of months.
NYC, let’s get ready to tumble!
Ben,
Their press releases have always been outrageously slanted but their data shows something entirely different. I’ve saved some of their .pdf data releases to determine if they’re revising their projected sales downward the following month for the previous month. I’ll take a look.
“‘Anybody could get a mortgage a year ago,’ Galvin said Wednesday. ‘If you were breathing, you could get a mortgage.’”
To perpetuate the scam that was the housing bubble, the most important thing was to to make sure that everybody could qualify for a mortgage.
They were the marks to model, to make it all work.
Aladin, when you posted last evening about your date with a 1600-year old, I tried to inquire if it was Saint Augustine, Emperor Constantine, Alaric the Visigoth, or Attila the Hun. My post was eaten, but then I saw Big V’s post; was your 1600-yo a Tree? Not a Joshua tree, obviously!!
It came of age during the Valentinian Dynasty of the Roman Empire, how appropriate?
It’s a very special Giant Sequoia, about 20 feet wide and 225 feet tall. About 30,000 cubic feet of hardwood, encased in a velvet glove.
The bark is so soft, using just the pressure of your thumb, you can push it in about an inch.
‘If you were breathing, you could get a mortgage.’”
I’ll bet in some of these straw deals some weren’t even breathing.
“The median price for a home sold in Milford this year has dropped by about $5,000 to $335,000 from $340,000 last year”
Seems my post vaporized, so I’ll say it again: Whoop-de-fricken-doo!
That reminds me of the poster long ago who scolded me for posting news from upstate NY, saying who cares. I responded that if one lived there, they might. I don’t get a lot of news from Connecticut, and I hope maybe someone in the area might want to see this. Keep in mind the median is a lagging indicator and prices are almost certainly down more than that.
Actually, Ben, I do care, I’m not scolding you, I’m originally from CT and still have family up there, visit there and I’m interested in the area and one of those who would want to see this. My comment was more along the lines of “aw, boo, not enough, yet”.
Certain parts of CT are very sticky, especially Fairfield County.
I have posted before about a couple who live here in N AZ that had a house on the market in Fairfield, CT for over two years. They actually raised the price by 40k after a year and a half, only to step it down later. It finally sold, but they didn’t have a renter all that time. Very hard-headed folk up there maybe.
“Very hard-headed folk up there maybe.”
It’s an East Northern disease.
Duh, or North Eastern.
I was kind of wondering…
“Very hard-headed folk up there maybe.”
Very. Combination of stubborn Yanks and New Yorkers who come into money. The family house, purchased in the mid-1970s for $125,000 (a lot of money, then) sold in 2000 for 1.3 mill. It would sell for triple that now.
Like anything else, though, CT is all about location. I could get a very cheap house right now in the Hartford area. But not in Greenwich.
being a fomer Jerseyite I was intrested to see how crazy it went there.
Tried to get mom to sell in 04-05-06. I think the Mercer county area is a nice place to live. Its just a pleasent if boring subburb. Still has significant open spaces to stick up more boxes.
You can catch the train to NYC/Phil if you are in to long commutes.
Probably lots of old hands in the market there. Trying to get the right price is more critical than time to sell.
For a little historical perspective, I was born in Manhattan and like many families, mine followed the old New Haven line railroad tracks, first to Westchester (in New York State) and then to Connecticut. Real estate-wise, it was a very interesting progression for many post WW2 families that started in the city and became suburban commuters. We were renters in Westchester for fifteen years. My parents were always looking for a house to buy in Westchester, but even during the 1960s and 1970s, due to the NY taxes, it never made sense for them to buy as opposed to the vey long term rental deal we had. When they finally purchased, it was in CT, because of the lower taxes and that was the same story for a number of Manhattan area families who commuted to the Big Apple.
Anyway, it seems taxes were the original driver of people out of NY and into CT real estate, back in the day.
I know I’ve posted this before, but for all the taxes that NY levied, we used to laugh when crossing the NY/CT border, because the roads in CT, at least where I lived, were very well maintained. As soon as you crossed into NY, the roads were pocked with potholes big enough to stop a tank. CT did a lot more with less, which proves to me that quality of services are inversely proportional to the amount of taxes paid.
which proves to me that quality of services are inversely proportional to the amount of taxes paid
You didn’t say it explicitly, but for those who did not live in CT:
Until relatively recently, there were no CT income taxes. So if you were making bucks in NYC, it was an obvious financial move to put your house in CT.
That has changed in the past couple of decades. So by Palmetto’s reasoning, we should now see an equilibration of potholes between NY and CT.
“So by Palmetto’s reasoning, we should now see an equilibration of potholes between NY and CT.”
Uh, I was referring to RE taxes in NY vs CT. I don’t have the latest info on that, but I do know, on an anecdotal basis, people are paying a helluva lot more in taxes on their homes on the NY side of the Candlewood Lake area than in the CT region of Candlewood.
BTW, I should have put a smiley in my post.
I don’t know the modern RE tax rates between NY & CT. Anybody?
BTW, there has been equilibration in the potholes between the two areas since that era too.
I want to hear the news from everywhere. Real estate is most definitely NOT ‘all local’. Especially not when the funny money that supported the ‘local real estate’ craziness so often came from all over the place; the loans, the equity locusts, etc.
One of the most interesting and valuable things I get on this blog is on- site observations from those who are looking right at local conditions. Those anecdotes are really valuable to understanding just how big this thing is, and how it will play out.
I’m interested, too. Now, Fairfield County in Ct. interests me, particularly the Greenwich area. Greenwich has never, to my knowledge since the 1960s, experienced anything like a major decline in housing prices. Minor declines and stagnation, yes. But then prices continued to rise and most recently, it has been driven by hedge fund and private equity and the usual Wall Street money. Now, if that house of cards collapses, so will Greenwich RE. It can happen. Hartford used to be the insurance capital of the US and was very well to do at one time. I haven’t been there recently, but from all reports, it’s pretty much a slum now.
Palmetto,
Yes it (Greenwich) did – they got hammered in the late 80’s. I grew up next door in New Canaan, and they got hammered too (Norwalk & Stamford have always been slums…the rest of Fairfield County sank like a rock during that period to though). I know because my parents *had* to sell at the time (’89), not because they couldn’t afford the house – we had bought it in ’73, but because of some rules where my father worked – FASB, that limited how long you could work there. His time was up and he had to leave. He had already started setting everything up to return to Arizona and then it went *boom*. As he had already started working as an advisor with the collapsing banks here in AZ. (S&L collapse) and was working with the Utility industry here staying there just wasn’t a possibility for them. I should note that the S&L collapse was far more involved and technical in nature then this one – as in don’t think any of what the public got told is even close to what that was all about – it was way involved & I saw far too much non-public info. Leave it at that’s what can happen when they change a tax & accounting rule no one was expecting to change… there was fraud, yes – but the real damage had to do from the loss of value on second homes when they changed the tax law on interest and the refiguring of asset values left most of them short of the reserve requirements…
Ben,
I echo that thought of Palmy’s. Litchfield and Fairfield are bellweathers for NYC. Lots of serious money folks have apts. here in the city and country places in those counties in CT. And by country places I mean multi-million dollar estates and horse farms. CT. is preferred for quieter and older money…vs. say the Hamptons. Watching places like Kent and Westport tells what the upper middle class is feeling in NYC. And the runup in prices in those counties has been unbelievable. Great to see some cracks.
“Upstate New York is the region of New York State north of the core of the New York metropolitan area. It has a population of 7,121,911 out of New York State’s total 18,976,457. Were it an independent state, it would be ranked 13th by population.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upstate_New_York
Unbelievable runup in Fairfield County? What an absolutely ridiculous statement. Price per square foot here is still lower than middle class suburbs 60+ miles from LA. That is where “unnbelievable run-up” occurred. My town’s HHI is close to $200k. Find me another town like that. One neighbor works at Goldman, the other is a big wheel at a hedge fund, etc., you get the picture.
If the massive RE bubble that is playing out across the country really gets ugly, then things will definitely get ugly here. Not beacause people couldn’t afford their homes to begin with, but because we are in a depression environment and all the fat-cat jobs evaporate. Ugly in Fairfield County, even uglier for J6P.
Again, to beat a dead horse, but I don’t know a single person where I live who has heloc’d for jet skis or an RV. I don’t even know anyone who keeps crap like that at their homes here. Probably in a hangar at the lake or something. Small interest rate swings don’t impact people at the very highest rungs of the economic ladder.
If you want an eye opener, check fundrace.org for any of the following zip codes (06840, 06880, 06883, 06831 etc.) and see what kind of cash these zips are pumping into the political machine. it will provide some perspective on the general entrenched wealth of the area
Peter Schiff had an interesting comment in this week’s radio broadcast. He was referring to Countrywide’s decision to restructure loans for subprime borrowers.
The main point was that the borrowers hold all the cards, and that the lenders and banks are going to lose trillions. The recovery rate on foreclosed homes is less than 50 cents on dollar. The lenders have no choice but to work with the borrowers, to do anything BUT foreclose on the homes. Anything to get the borrowers to keep paying. And that once borrowers figure out that they hold all the cards, they are going to see significant reductions in their mortgages.
What do people think of this viewpoint, and what is the implication for home prices in general?
I think the RE industry will use any trick available to persuade new money to come in to replace the junk loans. That’s their only hope.
Countrywide said that it would only refinance people who could qualify for a loan now. Not two years ago when they took at the 100% financed 1% interest rate loan. So I think that this will only help out a few people. Maybe 1 out of 10. I say this because anybody who took out that type of loan now owes more than when they bought the house. Also with price declines of 5-10% even people who started out with arm that was at a real rate of interest would not be able to refinance unless they bought money to the table.
Another bit of information. I have been selling coins on ebay for (cbroncos) over 5 years. So far this year has been very tough. Prices are way down. I am now trying to sell off my remaining inventory at prices below what I paid for from the US mint. Ebay has been sending me emails since May about reduced listing prices, lower seller fees, etc. Now I am starting to see the US mint advertise on televison. I think that many people who got into this business like me have stopped buying from the US Mint.
Just another sign that things are slowing down.
When you say coin prices are down, are you referring to the “proof sets” and other things that the Mint sells, or gold and silver coins?
I received a bunch of proof sets two years ago as an inheritance and immediately converted them to silver bullion. People thought I was kind of crass to do so immediately, but I honestly couldn’t see a reason to keep what are essentially slugs, albeit bright and shiny slugs.
You did the right thing. Modern proof and mint sets have been in a downward slide for 2-3 years now, with a few exceptions. Silver bullion has gone from ~$7 per ounce to $14 in two years.
There are some U.S. Mint coins that have been exceptional investments lately but they are lower mintage than the proof sets.
“Anything to get the borrowers to keep paying. And that once borrowers figure out that they hold all the cards, they are going to see significant reductions in their mortgages.”
You are right in thinking they’ll do anything to keep the borrowers paying something… if only to make their quarterlies look a little better. However, I don’t see anyones mortgage principal getting outright reduced (payments reduced, maybe, with terms extended and continuing negative amortization). The banks are going to take the hit either way - so wouldn’t it behoove them to have more creditworthy people at the other end of the deal (instead of the proven deadbeats & FBs they’re “working with” now)?
“Mercer County Association of Realtors President John Terebey Jr. described the market as ‘fragile.’ He said that with continuing low interest rates, there are prime opportunities for those looking to buy ‘entry-level’ houses.”
Realtors that throw loans, shouldn’t be selling fragile houses
I’m surprised that NAR, Lenders and the other RE associated CON men and women aren’t digging through the local cemetaries for potential BUYERS.
Hey, when you are, broke, desperate and hungry, a pulse and a warm body ISN’T absolutely necessary to MAKE THAT RE SALE .
Happy Haloween
The dead are rising… Will they qualify for loans?
Okay, I am pretty spooked about the U.S economy and about my life savings. I have decided to put most of it with EuroPAC(Peter Schiff).
Does anyone have experience with EuroPAC? How have the returns in the past been? I cannot seem to find too much public information about what kind of funds they have etc….Is this a hedge fund?
Shouldn’t you have collected information about returns and what sort of fund it is and that kind of thing before you “decided to put most of it with EuroPAC.”
Request a prospectus. Read it cover to cover. Don’t invest until you understand it.
It’s not a fund, it’s a brokerage.
“‘The New York state housing market had been experiencing a soft landing from the boom market…” said Charles M. Staro, NYSAR CEO.”
Soft landing?
Fair enough Chuck, but does HTO have the runway capacity to land 1,000 Airbus A380s?
Forget the A380’s.
This ain’t a pretty landing. Its a fleet of AN-124’s and C-17’s coming down onto a muddy field. If any one crashes or gets stuck, the whole process is backed up.
And an aviation side note: We have high cross winds right now. The best landing in high crosswinds isn’t a soft landing. The best landing is if the pilot can “stick” the gear onto the runway so that the gear can start taking some of the wind side forces. No one calls a landing like that a soft landing. Trying to do a soft landing in these conditions can result in an airliner blown off the runway and into the grass.
Yea… I’m an aviation nut.
Got popcorn?
Neil
A soft landing is when somebody else loses their job. A hard landing is when you lose your job.
Stanley O’Neal at Merrill might be out of a job.
Merrill’s stock fell the most in five years, its credit rating was cut and the perceived risk of default on the company’s bonds rose on Oct. 24, after O’Neal said the firm misjudged the severity of the decline in debt markets since July.
Investors who lauded him for chasing higher returns as the biggest underwriter of securities backed by subprime loans now question his management.
Kinda like Ben Bernanke. Jim Cramer will be lauding him for cutting rates but will then rip him to shreds in a year when he killed the economy and the dollar.
‘An estimated 4,300 New Hampshire homeowners with subprime loans will lose their homes to foreclosure between now and the end of 2009, according to data compiled by a congressional committee.’
‘About 30,500 homes in New Hampshire were bought with subprime loans that are still outstanding, with an average home value of $250,000 each, the data indicate.’
Only 14% will lose their homes?
Apparently 86% of the subbies prefer putting their limbs into an alligator’s mouth.
Have a friend who lived in New Hampshire for about 15 years. He just sold his house there in August and moved back to Columbus OH for retirement. He said the house prices in NH went up because of Massachussettes taxes. Lots of people were moving over the border. When he sold in Aug he got less than he would have gotten last year, but a lot more than he paid for it. He said he made out OK.
“‘The New York state housing market had been experiencing a soft landing from the boom market, and continues to do so despite this….”
soft landing
soft crash landing
crash landing
they’re in phase 1 of the landing approach
I posted the NYSAR data a couple days ago. This months data is very significant in that the ONLY counties that saw an increase in sales are those counties that fall in the outermost concentric ring with the ring directly next to it encountered flattened sales with NYC at the center. I’ve watched this thing unfold in NYS for months and wanted confirmation of this pattern and I got it this month. Whats significant is those rings midway saw a crushing drop in sales volume. It’s OVER in NY. Finally.
Also had a interesting conversation with relatives in the adirondacks last nite. My aunt who has always been a koolade drinker said to me on the phone that “it’s it a wall there” without me even bringing up the topic. I asked her why and she indicated that NOTHING is selling “even with 10% price reductions” and “it seems like the entire village is for sale”. I told it would take far more than 10% drops in light of the fact stuff is up 150% there.
This past week has been significant in NY anyways.
a 6.9% price decrease on a 0% down $800,000 home means the soft lander must write a check for $56,000 at the closing table.
the soft lander might even have another $50,000 of closing costs on top of that.
we’ll need more chex please
Palmetto, As I life long CT reident, I was wondering when was the last time you visited Madison? It is a great shoreline town sometimes referred to as “MAYBERRY”. It was until recently ,one of the few towns in Connecticut where one parent could stay home. That has changed over the last five years with a great influx of people from Fairfield county. An “average” house runs about $500,000. We choose to call it home for it’s great beaches, people and lifestyle.
Take a ride through the next time you’re in CT and I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
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