Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Builder price cuts? “‘The cut is deeper, and they’re bleeding more heavily than ever before,’ said Jill Flink, a broker in Raleigh who has sold homes in the Triangle for 21 years. Last weekend, Pulte advertised discounts of as much as $40,000 on some new homes.”
“Comstock is offering $75,000 off its townhouses in North Raleigh, a 16 percent discount from the original $463,900 price. Discounts of $35,000 are available at Comstock’s townhouses in Cary’s Preston neighborhood, a 10.5 percent cut. Drees Homes’ biggest discount is $60,000 off a 4,400 square-foot home in Cary’s Cold Creek development, normally $659,000.”
“The sales aren’t helping homeowners who made recent purchases in the same subdivision, Flink said. ‘They’re not just bona fide reductions, they’re lessening the value of the neighborhood,’ Flink said. ‘If you pay $250,000 and the next guy pays $225,000, what’s your house worth? It’s less than $225,000, because your house is older.’”
Or foreclosure statistics? “A new report said foreclosures jumped 311 percent in Maricopa and Pima counties in September. ‘Maricopa was about 2,100 - exact number, I believe is 2,127 foreclosures - and then in Pima we had 287,’ said Serdar Bankaci with Default Research.”
Or overbuilding? “Like the rest of the country, Texas has more new homes than it needs. ‘We gain about 400,000 folks a year, so we need about 160,000 to 180,000 new housing units. We’ve been building 205,000 to 210,000 new homes a year, so we’re overbuilt by 10 to 15 percent,’ said Waco-based economist Ray Perryman.”
“That’s nothing, he added, compared to places like Florida and California, which are overbuilt by 40 percent.”
Related markets? “AutoNation Inc., the nation’s largest automotive retailer, said Wednesday its third-quarter profit tumbled 12 percent on a decline in new vehicle retail sales, particularly due to the weak housing markets in California and Florida.”
“New car sales fell 7 percent last year in Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties, and, as of July, were on track to fall 12.5 percent in 2007. The two worst states for new car sales are Florida, down 11 percent, and California, down 17 percent. They are also the two states that have been hit hardest by the slide in real estate values.”
“‘Wherever you have the biggest declines in the values of homes and the sales of homes, you have the biggest decline in automotive retail sales,’ said AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson. ‘Actually it’s any big-ticket item … anything that requires a long-term commitment, the consumer is very unwilling to do that while there’s this big cloud over housing.’”
“Falling home prices, slower home sales and tougher lending standards have dampened the once-booming home- remodeling industry. According to Harvard University, overall growth in spending on remodeling projects in 2007 is expected to be 3 percent. In 2004 and 2005, at the height of the housing boom, it was nearly 20 percent each year.”
“The reason is simple, said Gopal Ahluwalia of the National Association of Home Builders: ‘When prices are declining, the homeowners don’t want to spend a whole lot of money on their homes. When prices are rising, they tend to take care of their investment.’”
“With prices falling, people who bought in recent years won’t be able to take out home-equity lines of credit, which many homeowners use for renovations. Lenders will ‘be more skeptical about what your home is worth,’ said Kermit Baker, director of the Harvard’s Remodeling Futures Program.”
Or appraisal fraud? “Two appraisers valued the Kansas City home of Katheryn Shields and Philip Cardarella at $1.2 million, about $500,000 more than its listed sales price. One of them was working with the FBI. The other later was charged with mortgage fraud conspiracy.”
“Jeremy Plagman testified that he told the mortgage brokerage employee who hired him that he did not think the house was worth $1 million. He said she told him that if he appraised it over $1 million, she would ’send more business my way.’”
There is no contagion here, nothing to look at, please move on.
The two worst states for new car sales are Florida, down 11 percent, and California, down 17 percent. They are also the two states that have been hit hardest by the slide in real estate values.”
the disease is spreading across industry.
… and we’re not talking Saturns here, either.
–
The best way to describe the loacl housing mkt in Tehachapi is that it is frozen. The activily level is very low and I don’t know what % of escrows close. The DataQuick price decline from the peak is 25.9%. This reflects the reality in the Central Valley, High Desert, and many other peripheral areas in CA.
Jas
The reasonably nice condo complex I’m monitoring in N San Jose is quite frozen too. Nothing’s moved in the past 2 months, asking prices went down a smidge a month ago, but no action since.
1B asking $410 - $440, when these go below $400K we’ll have a strong indication of price weakness. Compared to rents, ~$360K for a 1B seems to be a fair price, but I sorta doubt we’ll get there given the speculative premium.
Jas, if you drive east to North Edwards, go north (through town, past the post office) about one mile, and then steer left off the road into the desert where you’ll find some nice quiet Christmas camping. An occasional “rock-hound” may pass through close enough to wave. My brindle pit bull is buried out there where her spirt can run free! -RMS
I guess being the contrarian by nature that I am has resulted in bucking the trend to the tune of shopping in an empty Lowes store. Love it!
Falling prices/values just means that the grasshoppers who saved for the rainy day can now spend wisely without a hord of empty pocketed ants getting in the way.
When I see a long line of people, its not an automatic urge to go join ‘em. People are such effin lemmings . .. many times I’ve had people peering over my shoulder in an empty store aisle wondering “whats so interesting” that I’m taking a moment to peruse …. I HATE that !! Grrrr
Do your OWN thing - stop following me. Again, people are such effin lemmings. This housing bubble is no surprise at all to me. none.
NYCboy likes your anger.
Danni
heheh dani
Indeed, nycboy is leader of our housing lynch mob. I carry the pitchfork, palmetto has the tar, olygirl has the feathers, azslim the torch, of course neil has the popcorn.
txchk is reading the proclamation aloud as we march thru the hamlet, the rest of our fellow bloggers are pulling handcarts & marching while a smiling ben is standing in the upper story window of a rented cottage with a handmaiden on each arm . . . !!
Like the way you think, but shouldn’t “ants” and “grasshoppers” be reversed? I always thought it was the grasshopper who fiddled away while the industrious ant toiled? Anyway, I get your drift.
Schadenfreude is a warm, fuzzy feeling best savored in public places.
Now comes the new RE mantra: Now is the perfect time to buy - our market is doing much better than Florida’s or California’s.
In the past six years, moving backward more slowly than you had been, or moving backward more slowly relative to something else, has become confused with moving forward.
RE mantra for California - Now is the perfect time to buy, be different!
Nine of the 20 townhomes in the Julian LeCraw & Co. Inc. development Watersedge at Harbortown are scheduled to sell at auction.
J.P. King Auction Co. manages auctions of properties around the country and will handle the Nov. 10 auction. It will include six three-bedroom units, three four-bedroom units and nine 50-foot deep-water boat slips sold separately.
…
The developer completed construction and began closing on units that include granite countertops, maple cabinetry, terraces, private courtyards, garden tubs, individual elevators and two-car garages in the first quarter 2007.
Jacksonville BizJournal: http://tinyurl.com/2vjgy4
What happens if you own the boatslip and not the TH? Or vice versa?
September foreclosures in Duval County have nearly doubled from a year ago, but are still well behind South Florida, according to numbers from Default Research Inc.
The report listed 392 Duval County foreclosures in September, up from 208 a year earlier. Clay County’s foreclosures went from 14 a year ago to 48, while St. Johns County went from 14 to 29.
Jacksonville BizJournal: http://tinyurl.com/3cddxw
Interesting that there are a dozen or so multi-million dollar homes under construction on the beach side of Ponte Vedra Blvd (all custom - lots still go for over a mil) while on the non-beach side - where house and lot together are in the 1-1.5 mil range - there are scads of for sale signs (tiny, of course, because of code) and have been a few auctions. If you’re a, say, plastic surgeon pulling down 600 large a year, part of the shtick is building your own 3-4 mil custom home on the beach in Ponte Vedra, like Vijay Singh has. Everybody else is just a pretender.
So while the upper-middle class watch their evaporating equity nest eggs threatening to send them back to the middle classes where they belong, and desperation sellers in non-beach condos beg for $200K on stuff that was once $250 but is worth $125 at best, the truly rich are doing quite well, thank you.
At 5x income they won’t be doing that well for long…
Methinks the surgeons have been priced out.
Lennar is promoting: The Ultimate Year-End Home Sales Event
For a limited time, Lennar is offering $25,000 Lennar Bucks* that can be used to:
• Reduce the price of your home
• Pay toward closing costs
• Buy-down your interest rate
Lennar: http://tinyurl.com/2qbaow
I can’t stand Lennar. I don’t know why it is that they, as an HB, annoy the snot out of me more than any other builder. I think it goes back to the early 90s and all the media coverage in South Florida about the development in Miramar that they built over a trash heap, without disclosure. And the subsequent legal stonewalling they did. I knew right then and there I’d never buy a Lennar home. From all I’ve heard about them in this bubble, the Mike Morgan thing, the guy who got eletrocuted, the development built over a bombing range in Central Florida, and then the complete abortion they built on the Little Manatee River around here, etc., I just get the feeling that they can’t be trusted.
Probably the most ruthlessly efficient builder ever. The speed with which they filled in the area from SW 200th to SW 300th on the drive south of Miami between Cutler Ridge and Homestead was mind-boggling.
Here in New York City it just feels like people are starting “to get it”. I have been beating people up with this for 2 years now. At first they laughed at me. They kicked my a$$. But I kept going back for more. I looked at the dumba$$ “leaders” around me and didn’t follow their example. I held my convictions even in the face of a lot of mockery and sarcasm. I would much rather be right than be popular.
Every day somebody else “gets it”. My boss speaks to his friends and he is warning them about buying real estate. Two years ago he thought I was the funniest thing on two legs. He has fear in his eyes and realizes his homes are losing money. Our company is approaching business very carefully, knowing that the hocus-pocus on Wall Street could have a seriously negative impact on us. The other day an old-timer that I work with agreed with everything I said. Three months ago he believed in some of my general thoughts but not the particulars.
I still have my conduit to Minnesota. They are “getting it” too. I spoke to a friend earlier today. He has been calling me “Chicken Little” for a long time. He no longer disagrees with anything I say. He even sends me emails that are gloomy about the economy. Of course I see most of the stuff here before he sends it along to me. Last week a co-worker was talking to a real estate agent in Minnesota that is one of his friends. For the first time his friend admitted that the Minnesota market is really down. He can’t move anything.
It is all happening and it is happening fast. Don’t be silent and don’t worry about offending people. Sometimes you have to kick the people you love most, squarely in the teeth. If you are sure of yourself, and your principles, then keep hammering them. Tough love is tough. If even one person that is close to me listens to what I have to say, and benefits from my ranting, then I have been a success. Don’t be a politician on this subject. Be a leader.
3 times I tried to talk my brother in law to buy Gold ($642, $725 and $758) and he keeps telling me how it pays no interest…
I have no further interest in explaining the brave new world, that is about to dawn on him, sooner than later.
You can lead em’, but it doesn’t mean they’ll follow.
NYCityboy, we live parallel lives. I’m not in finance (in the arts, also here in NY) but two years ago I was the crazy friend or relative walking up and down with the “We are Doomed sign”. Though no one tells me I was right all along (won’t hold my breath) no one disagrees with me and I get emails with the housing doom articles also.
I still don’t think they understand how bad it is going to get. And i still get a look when i through out the 40% -60% percent decline that is coming, but they at least admit I may not be wrong.
Two years ago the 10% -15% drop we have already had here was unthinkable.
Of course the mention of subprime brought blank stares, that is until recent events.
One feels like Dr. Stockmann from Ibsen’s “An Enemy of the People” at times.
We’re heading to the Red Lion on Bleecker. Meet us there and we will discuss this mess. I will be the handsome devil in the white shirt.
Love to, but me and the wife have a pre-Holloween party to get to in the Bronx.
We should try to plan a HBB get together in the City.
For that purpose only, here is my email for the NYC crowd.
kanapali@gmail.com
Edhopper,
*ALWAYS* stick something in your e-mail that the rest of us would need to cut out to use (like instead of “@” use blah at blah). We know the spammers try to flood here – thus we can make a very safe bet they also try to harvest e-mails here…
Comment by NYCityBoy “My boss speaks to his friends”
Somebody actually has to supervise you. Must be a 3 martini nite, every nite, for that poor soul.
Here in around dutchess/westchester/putnam the denial has turned to silence. Nobody talks about how much their house is worth anymore so with timing tact, I’ll slip in the topic here and there. Dead silence except for “how long do you thing this will go on”? My reply: “It’s not a question of duration but depth… How willing are people to accept a 50% reduction in prices?” Stone cold silence again.
The fear among RE Koolade drinkers is palpable.
“Another one bites the dust”!!! Another builder/developer goes down. All of his property is going to be sold at a sheriff sale, soon. But none of his subs got payed. The 150 grand for the sub-division at Whitehall all evaporated. “Another one bites the dust!!!”
Can you be more specific? I think you’re in Bozeman, or somewhere in that area.
I am in Bozeman. This guy is some import. He hasn’t payed his sub-contractors in months. I was in the Clerk and Recorders office Thursday, and saw all of his property were listed with Notice of Trustee Sales. He was loaned by a major developer (who got his own problems) money for infrastucture at a proposed sub-division near Whitehall. The money was suspost to be put in a checking account that was going to used only for that project. There has never been more than $317 in that account. This guy is going down!
And I might add, the sub-division is still just a patch of sagebrush
Charlotte may have it’s first new condo-plex that ends end up as apartments. There is a rumor that one of the uptown projects has had so few sales, that it will be a rentals when completed.
We first started hearing about this kind of thing in CA and FL last year. Charlotte is “behind the trend” but the bust seems to be slowly infiltrating here.
http://www.thestreet.com/s/kass-theyre-still-not-getting-it-on-housing/newsanalysis/newsonthego/10386473.html?puc=_tscs
Yes or no?
http://tinyurl.com/2ntsad
and
http://tinyurl.com/337mcp
And there are folks (some of the same folks it seems) that say things are goig great in Iraq and GW Bush will be on Mt Rushmore.
It is still brutal here in the nicer parts of the Bay Area.
Inventories for sale in Palo Alto are way down. Rentals near downtown are listed at between $3500 to $5500/month. No kidding. And these aren’t necessarily very nice properties.
Recently saw a $3900/month rental with 50-yr old lead paint chipping off the windows and mold in the bathrooms. The twit of an agent showing it had no shame showing it many lookers.
I think “twit” was a typo.
Check out this new listing in Saratoga CA:
20255 GLASGOW DR, Saratoga 95070 (Saratoga)
$1,500,000 Beds: 4 bed(s) Baths: 2 1/2 bath(s)
Saratoga Golden Triangle! 1-block to Argonaut Elementary. George Day original in every aspect……. No updates. Fixer w/LOTS of potential. Needs everything including roof, gutters and downsputs. Extensive eve board dry rot, leakage into 1-bedroom, watch your step floor damaged. Project home. Also needs plumbing, paint, floor coverings, kitchen and bathrooms. 10,000 SF corner lot. Large patio.
At least the listing is honest.
This is a nice neighborhood with good schools.
And this listing. It went from sold to pending in 1 week, been pending for 2 weeks. Neighborhood is not as nice as the above but still very good.
19940 KARN, Saratoga 95070 (Saratoga)
$1,399,000 Beds: 5 bed(s) Baths: 3 bath(s)
Fabulous opportunity in Saratoga. Home in great neighborhood with Cupertino schools; Blue Hills Elem., Miller Middle, & Lynbrook High (check w/district). Huge lot (almost 14,000 sq.ft., perfect family home, 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, pool w/solar assist, priced to reflect needed updating and required TLC. Open house Sat. & Sun. Oct. 6 & 7.
I’ve seen only one house in the prime Silicon Valley region and
Need to be pulling in what, like $400-500k/yr or have the pile-o’-cash to afford those? With my 1.8% raise this year, I’ll be there in no time.
A house like this is generally a trade up. $750k houses in reasonable school districts and reasonable commutes are still selling as well. The tough one to sell is either 20+miles from jobs, or a house that’s much nicer than its neighbors. E.g. a 3000 sqft house in my neighborhood of 1500 footers for $750k was listed at $1.3m. Eventually sold for $1.1m about 2 months back. But a $750k and $720k sold within 2 weeks of listing in the last month.
So, for someone who bought in the 90s, they can have a pile of cash. of course if the market for $750k houses dries up then this will affect the $1.5m houses too.
The other factor keeping prices up in Saratoga and Los Altos is that there’s little new construction. (There’s plenty of teardowns, but I mean there’s not many houses added to the supply.) The only development I saw in Los Altos in the last few years was an acre lot split into 4 houses, for over $2m each. Not exactly the typical Manteca setup. There are TH complexes here and there, but if you want a SFH the supply is not really growing.
now, if the stock market falls hard, this will dry up the supply of funds for all these places.
I went to the local discount box hardware ‘Menard’s’ for a 10′ piece of copper pipe to do some plumbing repairs. $10.99 - WTF. I would strip a house at that price. Gas $2.76/gal reg; oil $92 bbl - does not compute. Price of natural gas lower than propane, so switched all jets to burn natural gas for the winter. A friend asked to borrow some moneys to help him through the winter. It hurts to say ‘no’. So, like all wimp outs, I said I would see what I could do. The FIBS are all gone, their houses are still available for sale. It seems that there are a lot more summer houses for sale now. The “its different here” is because of the inbreeding - just kidding. I’ll find out how many are for sale and how many are foreclosed next week. According to the government unemployment is 8.5% in the North. That seems low. I know more than 2 people that now commute over 120 miles/day for work. I know one individual that is sharing an apartment with 3 others in Milwaukee, goes to work on Monday and comes back Thursday night to his family. Anything to try to make ends meet.
“According to the government unemployment is 8.5% in the North. That seems low. I know more than 2 people that now commute over 120 miles/day for work.”
This government, with it’s statistical lies, causes me great anger and frustration. It’s a disrespectful slap in the face of their constituents. When, if ever, will we receive the truth or, at least, an honest attempt at reporting the truth?
Hoz: is that 120 miles round trip or each way?
Spend big clownbucks at Menards.
I see “maybe if I switch realtors I sell this house”
There’s one house in particular that I’d love to bid on, but when you’ve got people who’ve only lived there 2 years and paid $550K, there’s no way they’d accept a lowball, even if they are being transferred. It is a sweet victorian.
Oh, and I got a call from a realtor about an open house I was at last week in Arlington Hts, IL.. that’s a first here.
Schnooks,
Are you seeing rents going down in the NW burbs? Seems like I’m seeing lower prices on Craigslist.
BTW, another brand new $650K lux townhouse up for rent in Palatine after it failed to sell. That’s in addition to the brand new never-occupied 3 McMansions in A.H. that went up for rent in the past two weeks.
Yes, have seen rents come down on houses.. haven’t checked anything else. And I know the mcmansions you’re referring to.
Palatine.. they should never have closed Mia Cucina.. those condos will never get built in this market. What a waste of some good pasta!
Where are you hoping to buy eventually?
Hi. Prices continue to fall in DC, but still some wishing prices. Good for a laugh:
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/rfs/461115102.html
You can find more clear examples of “haven’t got a clue” than that…
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/mld/rfs/460574846.html
RE:
“Two appraisers valued the Kansas City home of Katheryn Shields and Philip Cardarella at $1.2 million, about $500,000 more than its listed sales price. One of them was working with the FBI. The other later was charged with mortgage fraud conspiracy.”
“Jeremy Plagman testified that he told the mortgage brokerage employee who hired him that he did not think the house was worth $1 million. He said she told him that if he appraised it over $1 million, she would ’send more business my way.’”
Well, I’ll be a whipped dog.
An FBI sting targeting mortgage L/O’s who threaten and coerce appraiser’s with industry “blackballing” and the withdrawal of business if numbers aren’t hit.
Sorry boys, you’re 5 years too late to the party.
Congressional rep’s have known about the situation for years now, every since they dissolved the FHA/HUD fee panel system and let the mortgage loan originators select their own appraiser’s to do their deals.
But they chose to sit on their hands kowtowing to their whoremasters, the MBA and NAR.
However, at least now with the FBI invovled it’s all can go on the public record instead of having all the conflict of interest accusations distorted by the mortgage loan industry as the whinings and sour grapes of those who couldn’t compete in the business.
Is it a matter of public record who appraised what properties and for how much?
RE: Is it a matter of public record who appraised what properties and for how much?
No-which is why the system has been able to operate the way it has.
Mortgage origination biz is a very clandestine operation.
But if you are in the appraisal biz long enough, you get to know who’s a rubber stamp number hitter getting all the work.
What always gave me a good laugh, was when sales agents would comment to me on completed sales tranactions which were so outrageous, it would blow their comparable sales analysis’s right out of the water.
They always use to say-Who was the appraiser who appraised that home? Then they’d scurry around trying to find out who it was so they could be sure he or she would do their next deal.
I’m browsing foreclosure.com right now, and there are some impressive discounts on distressed properties. Zestimate price 718K, foreclosure price 500K. 713/533. 704/500. Lots of others in the $100K range.
Perhaps some banks are getting tired of holding property and are starting to capitualate.
40% or better of all loans in ‘05 were 5 and 10 year interest only loans.What’s going to happen when the principal comes due on a house that has lost 40% of it’s value.Scary stuff!
Don’t know if any of you are familiar with this site, but it seems there are some astounding buys all over the country. http://www.oldhouses.com
Boat show weekend here, not as busy as last year, and everyone thinks their house will sell to rich foreigner, a few houses on the New river have huge banners instead of the normal “for sale” signs.
Heard yesterday: Miami Beach tourism won’t be hurt by an economic downturn. It’s full of Europeans and Brazilians, so cosmopolitan.
I said the Canadians better turn up in force, because who wants to go through the US Customs Anal Probing Line just to save a few Euros on vacation?
One of two things: tourism economies have some very lean years, or Homeland Security eases up the reins. It’s all a joke, anyway, when you can pay a coyote $3k to smuggle you into the country … whatever.
Mission Accomplished
For fun yesterday, I counted the “For Sale” signs on the way home from my favorite burrito place here in ATL (ITP). It’s about 2 miles away and I counted 74 signs. That’s just off the road, and not counting the signs in the back neighborhoods. I couldn’t believe how many I counted, I may go back tomorrow and do a re-count. I did grow up in the school system of Palm Beach County so it seems only fitting to recount at least 2 or 3 times.
FWIW
LA Realtors have reached the Anger phase:
Motivated folks only: More realty agents are refusing to cater to stubborn sellers and looky-loo buyers.
The graphic (not on the web site) that goes with this story depicts a red-faced, angry Realtor yelling at former customers. Classic.
After personally touring areas of Rancho Bernardo with the greatest concentration of fire damaged homes, I have to say my biggest surprise was not with the overwhelming scale of fire devastation, but rather with how difficult it is to actually find signs of fire damage. One can drive down a street in the core fire damage area and see nothing but green vegetation and undamaged homes, only to suddenly round the corner and see an isolated home burned to the ground. There are also a few isolated blocks or cul-de-sacs where the majority of homes were destroyed, but these are also isolated compared and a small portion of the residential communities in which they are located.
While obviously devastating to anyone unfortunate enough to have their home destroyed, San Diego fire damage is on a minuscule scale compared to that of Hurricane Katrina, where huge swaths of NOLA real estate were destroyed through inundation by flood waters.
P.S. Because the fire damage is so localized and only represents a very small percentage of the SD housing stock, I also doubt the experts who suggest broken-window stimulus will significantly revitalize SD’s housing-dependent economy. If they are right, then perhaps our city leaders should soon go up into the San Diego mountains and start some more fires.
The spurious inference the author draws from 2003 fire rebuilding effort confounds the aftermath of fires with the ongoing effect of the Greenspan post-9/11 monetary stimulus, which was still inflating the housing bubble in major metropolitan areas across the U.S. at the time.
———————————————————————————-
Rebuilding expected to spur economy
By Dean Calbreath
STAFF WRITER
October 28, 2007
For individuals suffering the loss of their homes, it may be hard to hear that there is a positive side to the wildfires that ravaged San Diego County last week.
But if history is any guide, the wildfires actually could provide a slight burst of growth to the local economy, which has been sluggish for more than a year because of the decline in the real estate market.
Graphic:
Economic growth after
the October 2003 fires
in San Diego County
“It’s going to be painful over the short-term,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego. “But in the long run, we could see some stimulus from the rebuilding effort.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071028/news_1n28economy.html
For more evidence on the potential stimulus of replacing 1,500 or so destroyed SD County homes, I just tallied the number of homes in SD County as of 2006 (there are more now thanks to recent McMansion construction) according to SANDAG data* at 1,067,846, of which 1,700 homes represent less than 2/10 of a percentage point.
By contrast, conservatively assuming a bubble peak average San Diego home price of $500,000 per home and a 10 percent decline, the loss of home equity in the San Diego economy at this point apparently is in excess of
10 percent X $500,000 X 1m = $50bn.
* The URL for Sandag data on SD County homes is:
http://datawarehouse.sandag.org/default.asp?g=5&gs=0&grp=e30&o=d&go=Get+My+Data&l=2
I just realized I mistakenly counted total households (column 1) not total housing stock (column 2). Since the SD housing stock outnumbers households in almost every area, my numbers above are an undercount.
San Diego’s ziprealty.com (MLS) inventory of resale SFRs+condos is holding firm this weekend at 20,302, with no evidence of any immediate effect of the fires on either inventory or list prices. For example, the median SFR list price in Rancho Bernardo 92127 (ground zero for some of the heaviest damage from the Witch Creek Fire) is holding firm at $1,257,000 today. Granted this is off by $143,000 (10.2 percent) off its highest level of $1,400,000 earlier this year, but this is right about where the median was last week as well. Further, the current inventory of 266 SFRs for sale in RB 92127 is about where it was last Sunday as well.