October 30, 2007

A Supply Problem In Florida

NBC 2 reports from Florida. “The NBC2 Investigators looked into the real estate market slump and uncovered one thing sellers could do to turn the market around. Although the buyers are there, some home prices are at 2002 levels. Many buyers are waiting for the prices to drop. ‘What we have are lurkers. Lurking on the sidelines,’ said Lee County Realtor Brett Ellis”

“Ellis agrees with his high-profile competitor Denny Grimes. ‘We don’t have a demand problem. We have a supply problem,’ said Grimes.”

“There are 15,000 homes and 9,000 condos listed for sale in Lee County. Thousands of them are priced out of the current real estate market and are putting a downward pressure on prices.”

“‘We tell them here’s where the market is- if you’re not prepared to bring your property to the market, we can’t help you. Because nobody is going to be able to sell your property for more than it’s worth, especially in today’s market,’ said Ellis.”

“The NBC2 investigators discovered realtors are telling clients to drop their prices to a reasonable level. ‘We’re seeing people coming in crying uncle, waving the white flag, saying we’re not going to get what we thought. We’ve got to get serious to move this thing,’ said Grimes.”

“Jenny Marinescu and her husband just bought in a gated community. The house had been on the market at one point for $370,000. They paid $245,000 not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth.”

“‘Unless you’re psychic, it’s the only way to predict when the market will bottom and what it will do. You just have to look back at history. If you do your research just a little bit, you’ll see that now is a good time to buy,’ said Marinescu.”

The Herald Tribune. “After eight months of legislative wrangling over property tax reform, the uncertainty of the process itself is taking a toll on an already depressed real estate market.”

“‘There are a number of Northeastern baby boomers who are literally waiting to see what we do with tax reform,’ said Kelly Ann Ayer, an agent in Venice. ‘It certainly has kept people on the fence, without question.’”

“Fence-sitting, in fact, has helped freeze an already stagnant market. In September, Realtors sold just 8,688 single-family homes statewide, down 37 percent from a year ago and the lowest since the Florida Association of Realtors started keeping a statewide record in 1993, when 9,300 homes sold.”

“Sarasota home builder Lee Wetherington, who has downsized his own home-building company to wait out the current slowdown in sales, said that reduced property values are going to prove more important in limiting taxes on non-homesteaded buyers than is the proposed 10 percent cap.”

“‘Over the next five to seven years, you are not going to see that much appreciation in property,’ Wetherington said. ‘I suspect you are going to continue to see valuations decrease. I think most homeowners will have the ammunition to go to the tax assessors and say, ‘This is what my new tax base should be.’”

The News Press. “First Home Builders in Fort Myers, which two years ago was on top of the world as Lee County’s biggest residential contractor with almost 1,200 employees, is down to about 50 today following its layoff of 200 workers.”

“The move was done in response to the current sluggish real estate market, said Ray Casas, spokesman for Red Bank, N.J.-based Hovnanian Enterprises, which acquired the assets of First Home in August 2005.”

“‘We will see ya all Monday morning for business as the ‘new normal,’ First Home president Fred Hermann told employees in an e-mail. ‘If asked by anyone…assure everyone we are not closing our doors…just ‘right sizing.’ Thank you for helping us all get through the day.’”

“The layoffs come as the low-end home sector, First Home’s specialty, is in dire straits in Lee County with a huge inventory of vacant houses caused by waves of speculation and failed loans.”

“There were 1,220 foreclosures filed in the county in September, 915 of them for single-family houses. That’s more than five times the 237 from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the number of building permits issued fell to 121 from 698 in the same time period.”

“‘It’s going to be like going through some quicksand for a couple years’ for low-end builders, said Naples-based real estate consultant Michael Timmerman.”

“The median price of a single-family home in Lee County has fallen to $231,600 in September, the latest month available, down 28 percent from an all-time high of $322,300 in December 2005, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”

“Besides a slow market, First Home has been beset over the past year by numerous lawsuits by people alleging fraud in the terms under which they bought homes from the company with little money down, some of them through a program by real estate firm D’Alessandro & Woodyard, which brought in investors to purchase the houses.”

“Many of the purchasers refused or were unable to close on the houses when they were completed, often because falling prices had made the deals infeasible.”

“Norlarco Credit Union and Ann Arbor, Mich.-based Huron River Area Credit Union collapsed earlier this year, mainly because loans they made to build houses, many of them built by First Home in Lee County, ran into problems when property values plummeted. Both are being run by the National Credit Union Administration.”

The Miami Herald. “The saga of Nicky Hilton’s would-be South Beach hotel continues, with its bankrupt owners set to auction off the Ocean Drive property under court order.”

“After a failed condo conversion, the combined Breakwater and Edison property will be sold to the highest bidder under the supervision of a federal bankruptcy judge. Construction has stopped midway through completion of a rooftop penthouse, and a lawyer close to the case expects debts to far exceed what the hotel can command on the real estate market.”

“The bankruptcy-court auction marks a dramatic turn of events for a property that only a year ago won favorable mentions by David Letterman and from writers in People and Vanity Fair magazines.”

“‘It’s such an awesome piece of property,’ said Michael Ehrenstein, a lawyer for co-owner Jonas Mimoun. ‘But it’s been so thoroughly mismanaged.’”

“Hilton signed a licensing deal with developer Robert Falor to brand the two properties the Nicky O. She was promoted as the guiding force in designing the condo-hotel, and her tabloid cachet brought waves of publicity to the project.”

“But the partnership dissolved into litigation, just one in a string of disputes involving Falor’s once formidable portfolio of condo-hotel projects.”

“Construction stopped at the Breakwater and Edison this summer; Miami Beach declared the tarp-draped hotel abandoned on Sept. 17 and issued a stop-work order at the construction site.”

“Though construction crews have already done about $5 million in work converting the rooms into condominium units, broker Christian Charr expects a buyer would probably opt just to operate the property as a traditional hotel.”




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116 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-10-30 06:42:40

‘Some subcontractors say they’re being pushed to the brink of financial ruin because Mel-Re, a longtime builder and developer in Fort Myers, stopped paying them for their work. Meanwhile, Mel-Re owner Ed Adkins’ nephew Jeffery was in the Lee County Jail on Friday charged with aggravated assault after allegedly brandishing a gun at a subcontractor who was prying the windows and doors from a Mel-Re project because he hadn’t been paid.’

‘Some subcontractors on the 200-unit Bella Casa condominium project under way on Plantation Road in Fort Myers say he hasn’t paid them and they’re in dire straits. ‘I’m into them for a couple hundred thousand,’ said Clifton Lockhart, who had been doing metal framing, drywall, stucco and painting on Bella Casa. ‘Myself and my family have spent every dime we have trying to get this building done.’

‘This week Lockhart and other Bella Casa subcontractors received a letter from Bank of Florida saying it will no longer be funding the project.’

‘Coast Financial Holdings, on its way to a forced merger, reported Friday that it lost $14.2 million in the third quarter. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, the Bradenton-based bank holding company lost $35.3 million.’

‘Coast, which now holds the dubious distinction of being in the top 20 banks in the nation for non-performing construction loans, issued a statement blaming the worsening Southwest Florida construction market for its problems.’

‘As a result of the worsening downturn in the investor real estate market, where Coast Bank has significant exposure, non-performing assets continue to rise, severely depressing earnings,’ said Anne V. Lee, Coast’s president and chief executive, in a statement.’

Comment by barian
2007-10-30 06:53:06

Off-topic and I knew it was coming, but as an American in Toronto that just charged $2.00 US for a C$1.75 water, to the uncritical mind the next years are going to be terrible. The banking and real estate mess in Florida is just the tip of the iceberg

Comment by spike66
2007-10-30 07:24:30

“the next years are going to be terrible.”

As Americans we ought to prepare ourselves to be humbled. We’ve been running on fumes for a number of years now, and all the bills are coming due. The future does look pretty grim.

Comment by JimKap
2007-10-30 07:50:15

You are so right. Many Americans have developed a sense of entitlement, arrogance and ignorance, thinking they should live a lavish lifestyle on a middle class income. Sooner or later the bills will come due. I think we will see a lot of people 10 years from now very much humbled.

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Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-10-30 08:03:50

I’m always amazed out how many people dine out these days. We do it only occasionally, but often find that the wait is too long (for our young kids) to get a table. I remember asking my mom how we could afford a shore house (on my dad’s blue collar salary) and my uncle who owned a business could only afford a trailer on the mainland, my mom said, “You aunt and uncle like to go out to dinner; we cook for ourselves and saved our money.” I always think of that when we go out to dinner….

 
Comment by laonlooker
2007-10-30 08:27:24

Well at least your uncle was being semi-responsible. Now choosing nice dinners over a nice home isn’t the smartest thing to do but at least they made up for their spending in some way. Today I’m afraid, far too many people want both the nice house AND the nice dinners. These people will be/are in trouble.

 
Comment by Ostriches
2007-10-30 08:33:50

Dinner or movies as a kid, why you guys must have been rich…

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-10-30 08:56:46

My parents and I seldom went out to dinner. And, other than my father’s weekly Rotary meeting, which takes place at a local hotel, they still don’t dine out very often.

 
Comment by Betamax
2007-10-30 09:19:59

Dining out is more expensive than people think. For a few years I ate out all the time and never saved a dime. Took me a while to put two and two together, but eventually I realized that there’s where most of my discretionary income was going.

 
Comment by Moman
2007-10-30 09:40:20

I put one months’ data into Money and realized that I spending $600 a month going out for lunch/dinner during a particular month. Now, I can’t stand to go out for breakfast and I smile every time I crack open a can of Progresso soup bought for $1.25 instead of spending $11+ on a dinner entree.

 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-10-30 11:10:58

When we were kids, we went out to eat only when we were traveling, which was rare and only after we exhausted the pile of sandwiches and stuff my mother made and we brought with us.

If you stop at Starbucks every workday morning, you spend $100 a month.

 
Comment by RASCalif
2007-10-30 12:38:48

It’s really simple: the cost of one dinner out for my family of 6 is equal to half our weekly grocery bill. A real no-brainer.

 
Comment by baeksu
2007-10-30 19:01:18

Here in Korea, eating out is almost as cheap as cooking yourself. A typical dinner for one will run between 5 and 10 US dollars in a Korean restaurant, whereas food in supermarkets is ridiculously expensive, especially meats and fruits.

OTOH, all the Western chains are priced at Western levels. A dish at TGIF or Bennigan’s is well over 20 bucks, so people go to those places only on special occasions, like birthdays and such.

The amount of money Americans are willing to drop on the table for a dinner is very shocking to me, plus you guys still need to tip. No wonder people are going bankrupt.

 
 
Comment by rex
2007-10-30 21:58:00

The first time I arrived in Hong Kong in 1956 I took the Star Ferry to Kowloon and was shocked by all the Chinese street urchins begging around the bus terminals. Recently, at the exact same spot I was accosted by by beggars…except they were european.

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Comment by watcher
2007-10-30 07:37:54

Hank Paulson believes in a strong dollar policy. LOL.

Comment by palmetto
2007-10-30 08:03:14

Hank Paulson believes in a strong Goldman Sachs globalista policy.

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Comment by In Colorado
2007-10-30 07:35:02

The contractors must be in trouble out here too. I have noticed that restaurants out here are seldom full anymore. Some even close out entire sections during what is supposed to be busy time. One thing I have noticed is that the construction boys are conspicuously absent at the trough. I wonder how many of them have pulled up their stakes and left town.

My wife works at the local library. She has definitely seen a change in the demographics of new library card applicants. Applicants need to show proof of residence to get a card, such as a DL, utility bill, rental contract, etc. These days almost none of them can provide this. They also tend to be singles, as opposed to families. When asked, they admit that they just arrived and are living with a friend while looking for work. They are told to mail a letter to themselves, and bring it as proof of residence. From what they are observing at the library, these people move on after 1-2 months.

Most just want internet access at the library. There is usually a line outside at opening time, and they all head straight for the PCs when the library opens.

Comment by Rally Mitigation Team Member Bob
2007-10-30 10:19:32

I.C.: My wife and I have also noticed the substantial decline in restaurant attendance, particularly out at the new Centerra mall. On the rare occasions we eat out, it’s easy to get a table now compared to six months ago.

Out of curiosity, have you looked around the newer development on the east side of Taft and 50th? We took a walk out there a couple of evenings ago, and I had to laugh at the ridiculous prices the specuvestors were asking for some of the houses. $575k for POS McMansion in Loveland, CO, near a railroad track where the engineers love to sound the horn well into the early hours of the night? Puhlease. :roll:

My wife’s reaction could have best been described as “Ahahahaha!” However, I don’t think the FB peeking through the curtains was amused at her laughter. ;-)

Comment by In Colorado
2007-10-30 11:27:27

Jeepers, you can get a custom home in St. Andrews right on the golf course for less. Also on Golf Vista in Marianna Butte you can get a 3000 sq ft house for 300K (not on the golf course side of the street). There is a Golf Course facing house that been on the market for over a year. There is no photo for some reason. They are asking 475K. I am think that in the current market even 400K is too much.

http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1090907849

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Comment by Curt
2007-10-30 08:39:08

I hope the sub was prying widows out of a vacan unit and not an occupied one.

Comment by Betamax
2007-10-30 09:21:32

I’m OK either way.

 
 
Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 09:21:32

Re Ben’s Cost Financial post, I remember from previous housing busts that subcontractors often get doubly-screwed like this. First, the work available to them diminishes or evaporates. But to add great insult to that, they often can’t collect on work already performed, once the builder stops paying them. Contractor’s liens are of some consolation I suppose, but Mama doesn’t understand that very well when it’s time to go grocery shopping.

 
 
Comment by reuven
2007-10-30 06:56:09

Speaking of Florida Contractors, we had a house architected (from a blank page) two years ago, and got some builders to bid on it. The prices they wanted to build a 3-bedroom house were so outlandish that we decided to wait for the bubble to pop (it’s to be a retirement home, we’re only 44 and 45, so we have some time!)

We get calls about once a week from the builders we talked to begging to start the project. And the build cost? About half of what we wanted. So we ask them: How can you afford to build for so “little”? How overblown was the previous price?

Basically, two years ago in florida, it was unheard of for people to want to build a house simply to LIVE IN. To everyone else, these were investments, financed with crazy loans. People like us who would pay cash and didn’t care about “resale value” were nonexistent.

(We need to build a home from scratch because 1) We can’t live in an HOA community out of principle and 2) We want a house with a large living room–I play piano and have a 9′ concert grand–but we don’t need the crazy master suites and 6 bedrooms and open family/kitchen/dining area that comes with most McMansions.)

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-10-30 07:26:36

Mind sharing the price per sq/ft that you are now seeing for new construction in FL? If you have plans and quotes, I assume you probably have these numbers; if you could share them I am sure myself and others would be very interested to see what it currently costs to build in FL.

Thx!

Comment by flatffplan
2007-10-30 07:38:30

and in other parts of the USA too
2002 pricing !!!, wow, even I,Billy Bear didn’t think we’d get back beyond 03 pricing

 
Comment by Melvin Frumph Hoppe
2007-10-30 07:39:07

yes i second that question as i am building a house for retirement as well. mine will be 650 sq ft with an unfinished basement that i will make to be a living open basement. solar power and geothermal heat are also being planned. i will help build the house but need to hire a contractor. all on 3and half acres of land an hour and ten minutes out of nycity. I am curious if people here think building prices are coming down. latest quote i got is $180 per square foot. i’d like to wait to get the price lower if need be.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-10-30 08:59:33

I just got an almost-$1,000 quote for the demolition and rebuilding of the hot water heater shed on the back of my house. This job can’t wait much longer, as the structure is already showing signs of deterioration. (Previous owner didn’t build it correctly.)

However, since I have construction experience, the carpenter will substitute my labor for the helper who would have been hired for this project. That will lower the final bill by quite a bit.

Moral of the story: Even if you have to hire help, it pays to be handy!

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Comment by auger-inn
2007-10-30 10:28:01

Melvin, You may want to consider ICF construction given what you have said in your post. Block would be cheaper yet but with the ICF you can get to 40R on the walls plus you get to 4+ hour fire rating. Google it.

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Comment by Cobradriver
2007-10-30 07:44:36

Michael,

I am told by a builder in North Port…”Bring me your plans and I’ll build it for 60.00 a foot”. Granted this isn’t the highest end but the guy showed me a few houses he has done and i was impressed.

The big drop…I am looking at putting up a 2500 sq ft cbs building to keep mine and my dads cars in. Also to do up a woodshop/metalshop right. I was quoted three years ago…60.00 a foot. I recently had a offer for 28.00 !!!!!
Ya,I think people are really starting to hurt for work.

Chris

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-10-30 08:00:59

Wow.. That seems pretty reasonable. I am sure that you can upgrade that to the very high end for ~75-80/sqft, especially since “high end” now is basically tile/granite/SS, none of which is exceptionally expensive.

That’s pretty much what I figured, I just wanted to see if my theories are correct.

This was for CBS construction, correct?

Thx.

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Comment by Cobradriver
2007-10-30 08:07:07

Yep.

My current neighbors house is wood frame.
Well,whats left of it !!!!

Chris

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-10-30 08:16:26

I had that idea once and shopped bankruptcy estates, etc. for the high end appliances, fixtures, flooring etc. I wanted, paying cash for all of it. I still have them in storage. I think if you do a lot of the legwork yourself you can get a $200/square foot place for half that.

 
 
Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 09:36:13

Cobra — those price track with what I’m hearing: $60 for basic but good-quality, $80 for very nice with extras and $100 for many-cornered roof and pretty deluxe with faux painting and the like — everything but the imported 14th century stolen cathedral doors from Cabo San Lucas.

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Comment by reuven
2007-10-30 08:47:13

We were getting quotes as high as 300 sq/ft initially. I think they were just feeling us out.

We have some odd features, but most wont add cost. Like we don’t have the high-ceilings that most people get these days in the bedrooms. (Why pay to air condition all that empty space?)

But we do want a “pier” foundation. A 2.5′ crawlspace beneath the house. You do realize that most of these Florida homes will have to have their floors jackhammered up in 20 years to replace the plumbing that’s all rotted out in the slab (I suspect some of them will simply be torn down.)

Comment by shelly
2007-10-30 10:14:23

I just had my house repiped early this month. Plumber went into the attic and around the foundation. I told him I wanted to wait until November, he said he had the time he wanted to do it now and I could pay him in November.

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Comment by reuven
2007-10-30 10:33:59

Putting the pipes in the attic is OK (I guess) for the supply pipes. (Of course, if there’s a leak there can be a LOT more damage than if they’re below)

But what about drain/sewer pipes? Those are probably leaking, too.

 
 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-10-30 09:16:26

Mind sharing the price per sq/ft that you are now seeing for new construction in FL?

I found a well qualified builder who can build a house for $100 -$110 per sqft. I priced it out closer to $100 per sqft with the help of a buyer from a key builder. Material and labor costs have plunged and continue to drop making it more cost effective.

 
 
 
Comment by gsinbe
2007-10-30 06:57:59

“Fence-sitters” and “Lurkers” - I don’t know. I’m skeptical that there is a large pool of renters sitting out there waiting for prices to just drop enough so they will rush in and buy. Seems to me like anyone who wanted to try being a homeowner got their chance during the last few years, and there are/will be before this is all over a large number of burned folks who have decided not be buy or finally realized that they really can’t afford to buy.

I think this is why real estate goes through such cycles.

Comment by Moman
2007-10-30 07:24:45

I agree. There are some buyers at each price, but not the rush of people who want to buy that the Realtors and media claim to exist.

 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-10-30 07:30:49

“Look–its Mr. Green!”

“I would have got away with it if it wasn’t for those fence-sitters and lurkers.”

Comment by Neil
2007-10-30 09:00:35

Plenty of fence sitters and lurkers.

Oh, Realtors ™ now need QUALIFIED lurkers whom have a down payment. Not many of those left. I really wonder what fraction have already found this blog.

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-10-30 09:23:40

I really wonder what fraction have already found this blog.

Probably zero!

I am sitting on the cash and won’t buy in Florida until prices drop further. The price drops have a long way to go in the Tampa Bay area.

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Comment by nunya
2007-10-30 11:06:13

agreed. lots of sellers still in De Nile…. just have to wait until De Water gets up to thier noses.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-10-30 06:58:04

‘Coast, which now holds the dubious distinction of being in the top 20 banks in the nation for non-performing construction loans, issued a statement blaming the worsening Southwest Florida construction market for its problems.’

Is that like saying, “We’re innocent?” Wasn’t Coast was up to its neck in dirty deals?

Comment by Incredulous
2007-10-30 08:08:16

Please forgive the typo (the “was”) in there.

 
 
Comment by Sniggle
2007-10-30 07:00:46

“Jenny Marinescu and her husband just bought in a gated community. The house had been on the market at one point for $370,000. They paid $245,000 not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth.”

- ‘Gated community’ really does not mean what it used to. I suspect that the gates are now used to keep people from getting out, kinda like the Berlin wall.

“‘Unless you’re psychic, it’s the only way to predict when the market will bottom and what it will do.”

- Nice sentence structure. Obviously, one of the best and brightest.

” You just have to look back at history. If you do your research just a little bit, you’ll see that now is a good time to buy,’ said Marinescu.”

- See comment above. I also think the operative phrase is ‘little bit’ of research. They looked back 2 years, and came to the conclusion that it would return to those levels. If they had just looked back 10 years and research the average income of the area, they would have realized the price will settle back to the mid to high 100’s.

Can the gates and walls in these communities be adapted to accomodate a few strands of concertina wire?

Comment by Annette
2007-10-30 08:54:04

First of all is $245K really a good buy? How many home in the community are in foreclosure? Fore sale? Any builder inventory in there? Was the one they bought a foreclosure? Did they have to put work into it? What was the size of the property? How much is their HOA?…I love how they think gated community solves everything and makes that a good deal..

 
Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 09:43:31

There are two types of gated communities, as most of us know. The first is just “gated.” The HOA is responsible for maintaining the gate, which can be a pain. In Florida and I suspect most other states, a gated community is also responsible for maintenance of the roads inside the gates and often the street lights. To me, if you want gated in order to feel safer, better to be in one that also has 24-hour guards who check the cars coming in and out. Costs more in fees, of course, but it provides most of the security that people think they will get on the cheap by being in a non-guarded gated ‘hood.

 
 
Comment by Professor Shays
2007-10-30 07:04:31

“If you do your research just a little bit, you’ll see that now is a good time to buy,’ said Marinescu.”

My guess it this purchasers “research” was little more than calling the Psychic Friends Network. The truth is as has been reported so many times on this forum, is the key to a market stability is reaching a price point where real property is affordable. Buyers, not sellers, set the price based upon making a purchasing decision. History tells us that the recovery is not going to happen next week, or next year. Proper research, based upon past recoveries that existed in conditions that were less challenging, tells us that recovery won’t happen for a while. My educated opinion is 2011 before we will see a bottom. I’d be happy to compare my qualifications and my analysis with this FB to see who has done a better job in researching the issue.

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-10-30 07:06:03

“‘Unless you’re psychic, it’s the only way to predict when the market will bottom and what it will do. You just have to look back at history. If you do your research just a little bit, you’ll see that now is a good time to buy,’ said Marinescu.”

What she meant to say:

“Unless your psychotic you will see that now is NOT a good time to buy”.

Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-10-30 07:25:29

LOL - A real one, and I’m sitting here all alone.

 
Comment by warlock
2007-10-30 07:46:14

” If you do your research just a little bit, you’ll see that now is a good time to buy”

& if you do your research a lot, then you’ll see that now is a terrible time to buy.

Comment by cami
2007-10-30 08:29:47

I had the exact same response. Hmm, maybe we are psychic.

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Comment by arroyogrande
2007-10-30 07:45:46

“If you do your research just a little bit, you’ll see that now is a good time to buy,’ said Marinescu.””

I did my research, and Realtors were saying that six months ago was *also* a good time to buy. As was a year ago. As was 18 months ago. As was two years ago.

The truth is, to most Realtors, *every day* is the “best time to buy”…that’s becasue it’s in their best interests to make a sale, no matter what the market conditions, because they only make their commission when a house sells. No sale, no Mercedes payment.

“Now is a good time to buy” will go down in history as one of the most overused and over hyped sales mantras known to man.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-10-30 09:07:51

Based on the oversupply of homes ,foreclosures ,and lack of demand by qualified buyers ,it is not a good time to buy because the market should go down more . Don’t know what BB is going to do with the interest rates ,but unless the secondary market is willing to lend at low fixed rates ,can’t see anything that will make the market recover that would make now a good time to buy . It you buy now you better get it at a price that accounts for prices going down more .I like to use 2002 as a price point ,but the market could fall lower than that in certain areas were supply, including foreclosures , is huge.

I would also like to know when “the powers” are going to call on the builders to stop building ,if “the powers ‘are so concerned about oversupply . They want taxpayers to bail out FB’s but ‘the powers never speak about a call to builders to stop flooding the market with overpriced houses in areas with little demand . Also if builders want to keep building ,the banks should require more of the builders money in the deal ,just like they are now doing with new buyers .Part of the reason for all this overbuilding was the easy money for the builders by the lenders also .There also seems to be a problem with lenders controling the funds for these construction loans so the sub-contractors get payed .

 
Comment by marionsucks
2007-10-30 12:05:40

When It’s a good time to buy.

Inventory is low. Prices are going up.Hurry!
Inventory is high. Prices are going down. Get it before it goes back up. Hurry!
Interest rates are low. Hurry before they go up.
Interest rates are high. Hurry before they’re higher.
They’re running out of land. Hurry!
We’ve got more land now so it’s cheap. Hurry!
Labors going up. Hurry!
Labor’s cheap now Hurry!
Lumbers going up. Hurry!
Lumbers cheap now. Hurry!
We have easy financing. Hurry!
We’re running out of financing. Hurry!
Real Estate always goes up. Be Rich! Hurry!
Real Estate just went Down again. Hurry!

For all of You that are slooooow out there. It’s always a good time to Buy. Always! BUY. BUY. BUY NOW! DAMMIT! Why aren’t You listening? Is this thing on?

 
Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-10-30 13:36:00

“Now is a good time to buy” will go down in history as one of the most overused and over hyped sales mantras known to man.

Actually, it’s not really a mis-statement of fact. They don’t say for WHOM it’s a good time to buy.
For the Seller, it’s a good time for you to buy.
For the Broker/agent, it’s ALWAYS a good to for you to be buying.
For the buyer? I think it’s a terrible time, if the reason for buying is that you are getting a good price relative to current and anticipated future market conditions.
For schill brokers………it’s ALWAYS a good time to buy.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-10-30 09:30:55

My educated opinion is 2011 before we will see a bottom.

I would take your challenge, regarding the education, qualifications and analysis, but I am on your side and I agree with your position.

I recently tested the Tampa Bay RE market and have found it to be overvalued and overpriced. Prices have a long way to drop down here until they become affordable.

Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 09:51:27

Fuzzy — I agree. That has caused me to turn my thinking around a bit. While I always liked the idea of building a house, my wife didn’t want the hassle. If we don’t build, then I’m increasingly convinced that the only way to go is to buy a brand-new house. Builders have gotten religion and will cut prices at any stage of construction to get you into a house. If you buy into a neighborhood that is just getting started in late 2007 or later, you likely will not be living next to people who took toxic loans to get into their place. No matter how nice that 2000-2007 subdivision looks, there are a whole lotta screwed “owners” in there who will not be able to hold on, and the rest will ask too much for their houses all the way to the bottom of the market. I think the savvy new-home builders understand this and will quietly go about their work, siphoning off large chunks of buyers who would have considered used housing but for the intransigent “entitled” attitude of the sellers.

 
 
 
Comment by veloblues
2007-10-30 07:06:01

“Jenny Marinescu and her husband just bought in a gated community. The house had been on the market at one point for $370,000. They paid $245,000 not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth.”

I wonder if they will feel like the other end of the horse when that $245,000 becomes $165,000 within a year or two.

Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-10-30 07:42:26

My sister and her husband bought a place in a gated Destin community of million dollar plus houses in December 2006 (against my pleas) enticed by a 20% reduction from the peak. Talked to sis last week and two house in the neighborhood are in foreclosure.

This party is just gettin started.

 
Comment by calmthewaves
2007-10-30 08:20:34

Speaking of gated communities: Does anyone have info on The Villages near Ocala? My parents live there and 2 years ago they told me “This is where things are happening”. I haven’t heard that from them for awhile and I can’t seem to find any sales figures online. Thanks in advance.

Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-10-30 09:37:27

Does anyone have info on The Villages near Ocala?

The Ocala area has a large amount of forclosures and inventory on the market. This is not a good area to buy RE until prices drop much further.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 09:57:06

Calm — this is based on nothing more than one comment I remember hearing from one couple within the past three weeks. Assuming I remember it correctly, they said that prices were dropping in the Villages. The reason I remember it is that I was a bit surprised, assuming prices drops would be occasioned only by inherited property being sold off or the occupants had to move to assisted living facilities. Perhaps that is enough volume to ramp down prices there overall.

Comment by navygator
2007-10-30 15:53:51

“The reason I remember it is that I was a bit surprised, assuming prices drops would be occasioned only by inherited property being sold off or the occupants had to move to assisted living facilities. Perhaps that is enough volume to ramp down prices there overall.”

Chip- Speculation was rampant at The Villages too. My parents bought an investment home in 2002 (2bed/2ba patio villa fully furnished for $125K) that they have been able to rent for a positive cash flow ever since. The lady that they bought from was just starting her flipping business back then. She would buy spec homes from The Villages, furnish them, then sell them for a profit to investors. My mom stayed friends with the lady and she is now a millionaire. I don’t know if she is still in the game or was smart and got out while it was good. Also The Villages are like every other builder out there… they waaaaaay overbuilt.

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Comment by navygator
2007-10-30 14:19:12

My parents live in The Villages too, since 2000. I also have 10 sets of Aunts and Uncles who over the last 7 seven years have bought homes there for their eventual retirement. For a while it was so crazy there that my relatives would get a call from their Realtor saying “I have 3 lots available for the next hour, let me know if you want them”. Then my parents would have to run over to the lots and check them out. Most purchased the cheaper homes.. 2 bedroom villas or ranch homes and only one paid over $150K. One did do a big designer home. They got to spend a week at The Villages picking out carpets, cabinets, etc at the “Street of Dreams”. Then when things got really hot they stopped letting people pick out their stuff. They would tell you the model and maybe carpet color and if you didn’t like it they would sell it to the next guy. Well reality hit The Villages too. Inventory sat and now they are offering huge incentives. These incentives range from your bond being paid, closing costs paid and tons of upgrades. Those are for houses built by The Villages. For resale, prices are going down. Commercial stuff is still going up like crazy. My mom jokes that she goes away for 3 days and when she comes back there is a new store built. They have begun construction on the third town square. We are actually going for a visit next week and I will be happy to report from the front lines. From what my mom tells me the housing bust is happening there as well.

 
 
 
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-10-30 07:07:10

“Many of the purchasers refused or were unable to close on the houses when they were completed, often because falling prices had made the deals infeasible.”

THe sale shuold still be feasible, just getting rich quick will not be feasible. No reason the sale shouldn’t go through. They said they wanted the house and the builder built it for them, time for the specuvestor to buy it.

Comment by Blue Skye
2007-10-30 07:33:53

it would be infeasible if they couldn’t obtain financing.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-10-30 07:09:38

“The NBC2 Investigators looked into the real estate market slump and uncovered one thing sellers could do to turn the market around. Although the buyers are there, some home prices are at 2002 levels.”

This just in: NBC2 investigators have discovered that the earth is round. Yun has denied it.

Comment by the_economist
2007-10-30 07:26:52

“The NBC2 Investigators looked into the real estate market slump and uncovered one thing sellers could do to turn the market around. Although the buyers are there, some home prices are at 2002 levels.”
This means the people that purchased homes the last 5 years are under water.

Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 10:00:39

“…the people that purchased homes the last 5 years are under water.”

To use an unpleasant analogy, that is why the toilet is hopelessly clogged. A 79-cent plunger won’t do the job — Roto Rooter needs to blast down the prices to get the transactions flowing again.

 
 
 
Comment by phillygal
2007-10-30 07:14:29

Despite disagreement about when the local real estate market will bottom out, lower home prices, historically low mortgage rates and a gradual easing of the credit crunch has almost all experts agreeing this is the best buyers market we’ve seen in at least a decade

Wrong, Serial Re-fi Breath!

I just checked the National City Housing Valuation data: My area is currently 14% overvalued. In 1998 - nine years ago, housing in the PHL market was 22% undervalued.

numbers for Miami: 2007 Q2 58% over, 1999 16% under.

Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-10-30 07:45:15

Best buyers market in a decade implies y-o-y gains of at least 25% for three consecutive years, as was gotten for buyers in 2002. Hardly likely. Do these people even think about what they are saying?

The paradox is that the lower the “affordability,” the higher the rate of home ownership. Now that houses are supposedly becoming more affordable, home ownership percentage is declining. People “afford” houses on the basis of things like expected returns, credit market conditions, and consumer confidence. Price and affordability are essentially the same thing - price is a measurement of the latter.

 
Comment by Matt
2007-10-30 10:29:44

It IS a great buyer’s market. Meaning, the buyers have all the power right now, and we can exercise that power by continuing to watch the prices fall. :-)

Btw, “serial re-fi breath” is my new favorite derogatory name!

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-10-30 07:24:45

“‘There are a number of Northeastern baby boomers who are literally waiting to see what we do with tax reform,’ said Kelly Ann Ayer, an agent in Venice. ‘It certainly has kept people on the fence, without question.’”

And I’m here to tell you there are a number of Florida realtors who literally believe this canard.

 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-10-30 07:25:29

“‘We don’t have a demand problem. We have a supply problem,’ said Grimes.”

There is more supply with less demand, both. It’s ugly.

 
Comment by Muggy
2007-10-30 07:41:39

“‘What we have are lurkers. Lurking on the sidelines,’ said Lee County Realtor Brett Ellis”

*Re-lurks*

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-10-30 07:47:29

corp profits hit 10%? of GDP in 06 mean is 6%
how fast we get back to the mean is either recession or goldilocks w soiled panties
comments ?

 
Comment by Moman
2007-10-30 07:48:36

I stopped at Home Depot last Saturday morning to pick up a couple items. Two years ago it was impossible to find a parking spot; this time there were at most 10 cars in the parking lot, and more employees than customers. The employee I dealt with pleaded with me to sign up for a Home Depot credit card to “get a $25 gift card so your $30 purchase will in effect cost $5.” I will not return to Home Depot, as I felt like I was in a car dealership.

Comment by Diamond Bob
2007-10-30 08:53:32

Had a similar experience in a big name furniture store the other day. A gaggle of salespeople lounging in the lobby waiting for customers. I was the only one and I was just browsing. It was a depressing atmosphere. This state (FL) has got to be in a recession already.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-10-30 09:04:06

Saw the same thing in a Tucson appliance store this past summer. Despite the lack of traffic in the store, the salesfolk were too busy talking to each other to spend much time on me.

I’m still in the market for a new fridge. Guess where I don’t plan to buy it from.

 
 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-10-30 07:50:36

“What we have are lurkers. Lurking on the sidelines…
…Fence-sitting, in fact, has helped freeze an already stagnant market. ”

Well, maybe if you would lower house sale prices and stop calling us potential buyers (you know us, the ones with actual down payments in *cash*), instead of calling us names like “lurker” and “fence sitter”, you might actually move some houses. In what other industry has it been a good idea to call your customers derogatory names? How’s that working out for you?

Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea to call some of us “bitter renters” as well.

Think about it.

 
Comment by dimedropped
2007-10-30 07:51:00

I located two sales recently that were obviously fraudulent.(There are 1000’s but these stood out)

I called a reporter for the local paper and gave him the info and agreed to help follow these two properties from their sale in 2006 till now.(Orlando)

This could be real fun as the legislature is meeting to re-evaluate the tax structure. Seems a lot of the numbers my be predicated on fraudulent sales.

Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 10:08:06

Dime — I too have seen many transactions that obviously were fraudulent. You are well-placed to obtain the details. Hope you call them all in to tax authorities and media - our Orlando-area Paladin. Sooner or later, there should be increased interest in this aspect of the bubble — I suppose it will be the point where honest owners and FBs get so pissed off at the price runups or tax-dodging caused by the fraudsters that they want to see blood — and then the media will be ready to feed it to them.

Comment by dimedropped
2007-10-30 13:08:50

Chip-this thing runs pretty deep. As you know one of the biggest issues we face is the sellers holding out for high numbers. They run the local assessor site or SWILLOW and see these sales and think they are legit. Hence, “let’s hold out honey, the neighbor just sold their unoccupied house for $575,000 and their house is smaller than ours.”

I reported this activity to our board months ago and got a big fat, “oh well”. Seems to me they should be all over this propogandized crap sales activity. It is fraud for one, but I am not sure that would motivate them, but the implications for a protracted downslide should kick them into gear. But then they are salesmen and saleswomen not geared up for the long haul. Too much pablum for too long.

 
 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-10-30 07:55:32

OT (maybe). I predicted this was going to happen when it was first hyped during the summer of ‘06 (In fact, I wrote a letter to the editor about it, but back then I was considered as just another housing-is-tanking kook. (BTW, if there are typos in this post, it’s probably becase of the overly-affectionate cat that’s purring and rubbing against my keyboard!)

http://highcountrypress.com/weekly/2007/10-25-07/elk_creek.htm

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-10-30 08:21:37

‘What we have are lurkers. Lurking on the sidelines,’ said Lee County Realtor Brett Ellis”

Lurkee-loos are smart to stay on the sidelines until sellers get a clue: You are not going to get 2005 prices any more. Drop your asking price or ride a falling knife to the ground forever!

“Ellis agrees with his high-profile competitor Denny Grimes. ‘We don’t have a demand problem. We have a supply problem,’

The problem is a mismatch between supply and demand, as the sellers (the supply side of the market) did not get the memo that buyers (on the demand side of the market) with buckets of money and boxes of stupid are no longer in the game.

 
Comment by Mike
2007-10-30 08:31:38

I live in CountryWide HQ territory. Thousand Oaks, ca. Last night I was told by a CountryWide employee (who has seen many of his co-workers laid off and is expecting the axe to fall on him at any moment) that CountryWide is getting out of the mortgage business and will become a bank. In fact, CountryWide already has a functioning bank but over the next 12 months (or less) it will slowly move to it’s banking operation and get out of the mortgage business.

If you visit one of the broker chat websites, Broker Outpost being one of the best to see these characters at work, it’s pretty obvious from the brokers comments that their business is dying on the vine. In other words, the real estate treasure ship which they have been looting and raping for the past 6 years has sunk and, from the brokers comments, there isn’t much chance it’s going to get refloated anytime soon. There are still a few flag wavers but they seem to be getting thin on the ground lately. As a side note, it’s interesting to see the broker mentality at work. Many are now shifting to the latest scam. Reverse mortgages. Reverse mortgages are tailor made for brokers. There are plenty of naive old time Americans who are no match for the young greedy turks in the mortgage and real estate business who would have no mercy on some old, memory impaired senior who needed some cash and would easily fall for their sales b.s. State and Federal government need to QUICKLY put into place some new regulations to protect seniors from these broker predators who will exploit the reverse mortgage business before they get start growing like maggots on a dead animal.

The majority of these brokers seem to think that banks, once this real estate mess has subsided, will only do “in-house” mortgages. In other words, you will ONLY be able to get a mortgage from a bank. This is highly possible because it seems more and more states are bringing in laws which really stop the brokers from fleecing the unwary. For instance, brokers will have to tell the person applying for a mortgage the amount of commission the broker is carving out for his/her self. Over the last few years some commission levels have been outrageous but nobody cared because property prices always go up (lol).

When the property market (which in my opinion will not return to normal until I am in my grave and I’m 70) does recover, people will be so wary of property buying because of all the horror stories we will be hearing over the next 5 to 10 years, they will look at mortgage documents with a magnifying glass AND, I predict, there will be citizen run organizations springing up who will check and double check mortgage documents for fraud at no cost.

I also suspect that the real estate business will change. Again, once this mess is over, the politicians will dump any broker or real estate organization (like the NAR) even though they get a nice fat pay off from them. Politicians are known to defend any scumbag (who is paying them enough) until the heat gets too much to bear and then they throw them over board. The NAR is a prime example of an organization that has mis-lead buyers over the past 6 years and a lot of this mess will be blamed on the realtors - which means a lot of new regulations.

Comment by Lisa
2007-10-30 08:50:50

“The majority of these brokers seem to think that banks, once this real estate mess has subsided, will only do “in-house” mortgages. In other words, you will ONLY be able to get a mortgage from a bank.”

If this is true, we’ll see a swift return to traditional lending standards. 20% down, 30% down for larger loans. Full doc. Cash reserves. No credit card debt.

Prices will collapse, as there will be very, very few buyers who qualify for bubble prices.

Comment by Annette
2007-10-30 09:02:53

Its happening now. BOA, WAMU, First Bank and a host of others have closed the faucet to brokers…more to follow. But is makes sense..with all the fraud that was committed the only way to make our securites trusted in the global market again is to show that the USA has eliminated the cause/blame which is the mortgage brokers. Not to say that the lenders with their enticement of Yield Spreads(legal bribes) didn’t help. How did that help keep the broke honest? Putting the buyer with the loan that paid the best commission to the broker was done instead of the best loan for the buyer. Yes we will be going back to the good old fashioned put moneydown, prove your income and so on..I think it is the best thing to prevent a repeat performance…

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-10-30 10:16:49

And it will take longer to get a loan, but it’s better than a approval in 15 minutes based on air .

If the public could only realize that the easy money from Wall Street and fraud caused a giant bubble ,they might welcome going to direct lenders . Long term loan investment in the secondary market was always a pretty stable business ,but Wall Street rode off the past steam of loans being a low risk investment . It’s a crying shame that the fraudulent ponzi scheme wasn’t stopped in late 2005 when it was clear that the lending business/real estate agents were corrupt .
I get sick and tired of the MSM not calling a spade a spade ,to the point where the general public has a idea of why the real estate market is crashing . The MSM likes to talk about FB’s but the MSM doesn’t like to talk about the corrupt money market from Wall Street with all the fraudulent drones down the line that helped to keep the ponzi scheme going by uneithical acts and outright fraud .

Does anybody really think that commissioned salespeople ,who don’t have a lot of check and balances, are going to do the right thing ?It was like the REIC was mice who knew the cat went away on vacation for 5 years .I can’t forget the article that Ben posted about salespeople bringing out a bat against a underwriter that dared to turn down a loan . How about a whole profession ,like appraisers ,who would starve unless they went along with the commissioned salespeople . For a major business to become this corrupted on a National level is really scary .

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Comment by Inland Empire
2007-10-30 09:55:34

Bank of America does this already I believe. You can only get a mortgage directly through them.

Comment by Chip
2007-10-30 10:17:13

Dropped by my BofA branch about two months ago and it was odd — they have a mortgage “section” with a loan officer with whom we used to deal, and also a front-office loan officer who now handles their “no-closing-cost” mortgage. When I asked who between them handles a run-of-the mill mortgage for a new house, there was a very awkward silence, broken by the VP who stepped in and said they would sort it out. It was clear that something was about to change, big-time, in the way they handle their loans.

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Comment by Patriotic Bear
2007-10-30 14:29:35

B of A is great. They are allowing illegals to have accounts. They should be called Bank of Mexico.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-10-30 09:13:38

Mike, what problems do you see in reverse mortgages? I have a dear friend with one, and it seems to be providing her with the cash to do much-needed updating of her house. No downside as far as I can see, but I’m interested in your opinion.

Comment by Mike
2007-10-30 10:10:35

Slim
Reverse mortgages seem to be okay if you are passed retirement age and need the money. It’s not the reverse mortgages which are the problem (more on that in a moment though). It’s the brokers who will move in for the kill like a jungle predator moves in on an old and weary prey. I have nothing against reverse mortgages EXCEPT I think there is a government “hidden agenda” which I will touch on later.

First, these brokers (and realtors) have to be highly regulated from now on and there has to be extremely powerful punishment for brokers or realtors engaged in fraud of any type, including looooong jail time and financial restitution for the victims. If some old lady who’s brain isn’t working too good needs a reverse mortgage, I see no problem BUT the broker’s documents need to be 100% kosher. At the moment, I don’t think there are any regulations aimed at brokers who deal in reverse mortgages.

As for the reverse mortgage “government hidden agenda?” I’ve posted this before. I think property value has replaced gold (even though gold is going up in price). The government likes people to own property for many reasons including stability which means they can track you unlike gold owning and property owners are highly taxable cash cows.

Forget all that propaganda crap about owning a house being part of the American Dream. Maybe in the past but not now. 99% of people who own property never move. If you bought a house in my street in 1964 it cost $37,000. It would now sell for about $650,000. However, the owner (many in my street are the original owners including the people either side of me) is still living in a $37,000 house. Of course, he could sell it for $650,000 - and buy one 2 doors away for $650,000. You could use it as an ATM (government likes that) but we are now seeing where that leads. So - it’s simply paper profit but the big winner is the state and the federal government.

I think the “hidden agenda” will arrive in the guise of “means testing”. It’s already happening in some places in Europe.

We should not make the mistake that the USA of today is the USA of yesterday. You have to put your stars and stripes away here for a moment. The USA is in decline. Nothing personal. It’s no different than any other country which was top dog in past history. The Brits, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, the Italians (Rome) and several thousand years ago the Chinese, all dominated the world - then declined. The USA is bankrupt. Big bankrupt. It’s that simple. It cannot afford what’s coming down the line in the shape of social security and medical care. However, even though Bush might like to see them stopped because he hates the FDR type programs, the majority of the government benefits are here to stay - or we will see a revolution.

If you think you’ve seen excessive government expenditure so far - wait until you see what happens to the US budget deficit if they bring in a National Health Service. The american medical system will ream the USA an a*shole the likes of which you have never seen before but it’s going to happen.

Which brings us back to reverse mortgages. How do you stop - or at least staunch - the financial bleeding? Either by taxes (hard to get through because politicians are whores and want to get re-elected) or by “means testing”. For instances. You own a house valued at, say, $650,000. You’re 74 years old. You need a pace maker. Cost will be in the $50,000 to $70,000 range. Well, you ain’t Dick Cheney with millions in the bank and a Washington politicians medical plan which covers everything. You are just Joe Average with a pension and a few dollars in the bank BUT, you do have a $650,000 house - bought and paid for. That’s your worth. In comes the government. They say they will pay 25% or 50% of your pace maker operation - you will pay the rest. Oh, yeah, that’s right. You don’t have any cash to mention. No problem. Take out a $50,000 loan on a reverse mortgage to pay your share. Trust me…..this stuff is baked into the cake. Of course, you might have $50,000 in gold coins in your safety deposit box. So it’s your choice. Reverse mortgage or come out into the open and sell your gold coins. They get you either way.

Comment by phillygal
2007-10-30 10:52:03

I’ve never looked at reverse mortgage docs, but I have a suspicion that the fees packed into the loan eat away anything that may be left to the mortgagee’s heirs.

Also, how do they handle the loan balance on a property that is depreciating? Are there regular appraisals required for them to lend you money? What about adjustments to the interest rate? All in all, I don’t see this as anything but a last-ditch option for a retiree who is desperate for money and doesn’t care if nothing is left to heirs. Or favorite charities, or any other beneficiary of choice.

Score another big one for the banksters.

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Comment by packman
2007-10-30 10:18:33

Wouldn’t a reverse mortgage just be a CD?

 
Comment by tuxedo_junction
2007-10-30 11:13:40

Huge up front fees which can be 12-14% of the initial credit line. Of course the credit line goes up over time so that over the life of the loan the fee is effectively smaller. This by-the-way is for legitimate, government-insured, reverse-mortgage loans. Who knows what you get from conventional loans which have all sorts of conditions, (big prepayment penalties, lender entitled to all appreciation, etc.).

 
 
Comment by boulderbo
2007-10-30 09:28:22

You’re spot on. The people that I talk to inside the business (and believe me, there are few left) are being told that the mortgage brokerage industry is toast, that they should plan on operating a retail platform in the next six months. The money center banks (Wachovia, Bank of America, etc.) will operate their mortgage operation of the branches, the “Vice Presidents” will have to offer mortgages along with checking accounts and CD’s. The only remaining independent mortgage brokers will have to be large enough to have the capacity to buy a loan back if it goes bad (imagine that). The concept of a two or three person shop (or even worse, the individual operating out of Panera bread) will be a historical footnote, imho.

Comment by Moman
2007-10-30 10:07:44

That’s the way it should be too. Funny that you bring up Panera - it was fun to go there for breakfast to see the young real estate ‘professionals’ talking about how they are so smart, mortgage brokers meeting there, etc. The local Panera even has a community room that some group called “Professionals Ltd” met in each Wednesday, looking at PowerPoint presentations, etc. I asked someone what they did, and they were a professional selling organization, i.e. pyramid scheme.

Panera is hurting in the mornings now.

 
 
 
Comment by M Easton
2007-10-30 08:41:29

BIGGER THAN GOVERNMENT

Bigger Than Government

FHLB borrow in the bond market and lend the money to their members. Federal Home Loan Bank obligations, when combined with the $1.5 trillion debt and $4.7 trillion in bond guarantees of Washington-based Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in McLean, Virginia, are 46 percent more than the $5.04 trillion of Treasury debt held by the public.

Bloomberg

 
Comment by El A
2007-10-30 08:45:13

Doug in Boone,
These days, if houses in Florida ain’t sellin, houses in the NC mountains ain’t sellin either.
El A (App State, class of 95)

Comment by AR in Ft Lauderdale
2007-10-30 09:51:27

Been silently reading this blog forever I think it’s about time for me to chime in. I am building a 1550 square foot house on almost two acres near Ft Lauderdale. When I started this project everyone thought I was crazy for building such a small house, even the bank told me I was “underutilizing” the property. Fast forward 1 year and my small energy efficent and spartanly designed home (for prop. tax minimization purposes) is almost done. All my contractors think I am a genius for not building a McMansion. App. State 96

Comment by Moman
2007-10-30 10:20:52

One thing I have never understood about FL housing is the touches that are put on the wanna-be McMansions. Let’s start with high ceilings. Why pay to cool all that area? Plus, the acoustics are horrible. Secondly, tight homes. With the windows shut and no A/C, they quickly become ovens. With windows open, there isn’t much draw. Then the layout of the houses around here is horrible. Entry is into a hallway with a seldom used living room/dining room combo area. Then there is a great big room with kitchen/living room combo. The kitchens are built with the cheapest possible cabinets and least-efficient appliances, and the living room has huge ceilings again (sound, cooling?). Bedrooms are split apart so while you’re sleeping in bed someone could be snatching your kids from the other side of the house and you wouldn’t hear. Plus who in the hell wants their master bedroom right off the living room?

All that has happened is years of Florida heritage (homes built high off ground with large windows to facilitate airflow) have been ruined for the import of a northern monstrosity.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-10-30 10:27:19

Good for you . I am really glad that some people kept their head during this crazy real estate mania .

I recall reading a article in 20024 that said that the baby boomers want condos with alot of sq. footage . At the time I thought that the article seems like a bunch of hype because older people usually want less sq footage . The speculators were convinced that the big sq. footage places they were buying to flip would get alot of demand and I think that was the purpose of the article .

Comment by Moman
2007-10-30 11:10:38

Common belief back in the days of cheap energy.

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Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-10-30 08:54:28

If you do your research just a little bit, you’ll see that now is a good time to buy,’ said Marinescu.”

I did my research and now is not a good time to buy in Florida Marinescu! If you buy now, you most certainly will lose money in the Florida market!

 
Comment by sr
2007-10-30 09:13:01

ah florida the land where half the high schools are dropout factories. That should help the housing market

http://www.cfnews13.com/News/Local/2007/10/29/florida_second_in_dropout_factories.html

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-10-30 09:13:08

This was on a realty site that had Reunion FL. Also check the price reductions and price increases below. All the short sales and foreclosures there had reductions followed by increases. Must have heard the market was coming back and thought they were going to make big bucks. The days on the market is not accurate either, some MLS’s were 2 years old.

Pre-foreclosure! Just reduced $50,000!! $180~ / sq. Ft.!! Conservation view! Cash back available! Granite, crown, stainless, upgrades galore!! 3 signature golf courses, 18m water park, and town center. Golf membership included! 3 signature golf courses!Huge growth opportunity over the next 12 months! Some highlights over the next 12 months include new multi-million dollar entrance to reunion off of i-4, new nicklaus clubhouse to be completed, new downtown with shops and restaurants, 2nd phase of waterpark and much more! Call for details on creative financing that is available per respa guidelines. Closing costs paid for, hoa dues paid, cash back at closing, buy down of rates, monthly golf dues paid for, etc. Carriage pointe also has several improvements planned including a new guard gate, a new road from carriage pointe to reunion grande, jogging and biking trails behind the property and improved landscaping, re-painting the blue shutters, and the kicker, a 3m landscaping package that will completely block the view of old lake wilson rd from carriage pointe!
ZipRealty Price Track:

Price Reduced: 10/08/07 — $389,900 to $339,900
Price Increased: 10/11/07 — $339,900 to $485,000
Price Increased: 10/22/07 — $485,000 to $499,900
On Market: 31 days

I guess if you can’t sell it for $339,900 raising it to $499,900 is sure to attract buyers.

Comment by Les Pendens
2007-10-30 15:48:59

.

!

.

 
 
Comment by peter wiener
2007-10-30 09:37:25

test

 
Comment by Dale
2007-10-30 13:40:29

Does anyone follow the Hollywood/Ft. Lauderdale condo market? I’ve been on the sidelines for about 6 months, eying two buildings - Duo and Ocean Marine & Yacht Club in Hallandale. The prices on the Duo have been slowly creeping down in the past few months, but the building isn’t completely finished yet. If anyone knows the market down here, do you think $249,000 for a 1/1.5 in the Duo is a good price? Is it really possible that new construction with granite/stainless steel in a semi-luxury building could go for under $200,000?

 
Comment by Ria Rhodes
2007-10-30 15:07:29

“To me, if you want gated in order to feel safer, better to be in one that also has 24-hour guards who check the cars coming in and out. Costs more in fees, of course, but it provides most of the security that people think they will get on the cheap by being in a non-guarded gated ‘hood.”

I lived in a gated community in Calabasas, CA. We had guards signing people in and out 24/7. Subcontractors, visitors, and residents kept the guard(s) busy. I had a neighbor two house down whose van was stolen from their driveway. A neighbor on the next street over found their expensive electronics stolen when they returned from a restaurant. Numerous acts of vandalism where discussed by the HOA. Overall it was an OK place to live, although you rarely saw anyone walking the neighborhood streets, just the occasional sound of people hitting tennis balls on the courts, and the swish of water sprinklers watering the grass at 12 midnight, All in all just another soulless place to garage your Lexus and watch your 60-inch plasma set.

 
Comment by Shawn
2007-10-30 19:08:26

Dear Dale
Re your comment, “If anyone knows the market down here, do you think $249,000 for a 1/1.5 in the Duo is a good price? Is it really possible …could go for under $200,000?” Why would you POSSIBLY consider buying ANYthing now??? Make yourself wait at least until this summer before you buy anything. Dear God! They won’t be able to GIVE that place away? What kind of services will you get if nobody is paying the condo fees. Rent, man, Rent!!!

Comment by Dale
2007-10-30 23:52:08

That’s a good point Shawn. I’ve always been a renter so don’t have any insight into condo living. What would happen if, say, only 50% of the units that are supposed to close this month actually close. If the rest of the buyers break their contract and lose their deposit, what happens to the building amenities (i.e. guard, AC in the hallways, pool, etc)? If the whomever controls these things isn’t getting paid, how does the building function on a day-to-day basis?

I’m only considering buying relatively soon because compared to every other building in the area, you’re really getting a beautiful place with new construction for MUCH less than other condos. If similar units in other buildings are going for $350,000, and these are going for $250,000, how much cheaper can they go? The original buyers back in 2003 supposedly contracted at $230,000. I can’t imagine getting this place under $200,000 in 6 months. Or can I?

 
 
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