October 30, 2007

Behold The Down Side

The Business Journal reports from Indiana. “Melinda and Brooks Bertl know the ups and downs of the current real estate market—personally. They started looking for a home to buy this spring and it took them only two weeks to find one they liked in Carmel. In March, the couple put their Castleton-area home on the market, where it has languished ever since.”

“They’ve lowered the price 15 percent and recently installed new carpeting throughout the A-frame, tri-level house to make it more attractive to prospective buyers. Since listing the property, the Bertls have had two offers well below their asking price. Behold the down side.”

“Recent data from the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors show they’re far from alone. The nine-county Indianapolis metropolitan area had 1,998 pending sales of single-family homes and condominiums in September, down 16.8 percent from the same month last year.”

“The more than 20,600 active listings in September were up 5 percent over the same month last year.”

“‘The thing we cannot control is consumer confidence,’ said James Litten, president of F.C. Tucker Co.’s Residential Real Estate Services Division. And when people worry, it has a ripple effect because they don’t spend money.”

“That’s something the Bertls know well. ‘It’s not a conducive market right now for people selling their homes,’ Melinda Bertl said. ‘Just lowering the price doesn’t entice people to buy.’”

The Courier News from Illinois. “Chances are that the people walking into Caroline Hernandez’s South Elgin office aren’t thrilled to be there. And Hernandez, a real estate attorney specializing in foreclosures, readily admits that her newfound popularity may be a little bittersweet.”

“‘People were given the wrong impression of what they could afford,’ she said. ‘As opposed to being frugal and saying, ‘I know how much I can afford,’ it became, ‘Why don’t I buy?’”

“Lenders may or may not have run a credit report on potential buyers, said Hugh Smeed, with Crown Community Development in Naperville., ‘but nobody called your employer or checks your tax return.’ Interest rates came down to almost historic lows, he added. ‘All of that contributed to people who were supremely unqualified to buy a house,’ doing just that.”

“‘So many of these people applied for loans stating income they didn’t have. Banks look at it now and say, ‘How did you afford this’ ’? Hernandez said.”

“Area developers and mortgage lenders are creating programs and offering deals to help ease the suffering that has come with the nation’s housing market slump.”

“Fountain Square in downtown Elgin, a mixed-use building with condominiums ranging in price from $229,900 to $474,900, is giving home shoppers the chance to live there for six months free. No mortgage payments, real estate taxes and homeowner association fees for six months provide homeowners with a ‘financial cushion that gives you time to sell your existing home,’ according to sales manager Katie Lange.”

“‘It isn’t desperation,’ she said. ‘It’s just to give an incentive.’”

“A mortgage licensee based in Crystal Lake is mailing out fliers proclaiming, ‘If you can prove your income, we have a home ownership solution for you, regardless of your current credit situation.’”

“The company has teamed up with Advantage Financial Partners and JP Realty to make buying a home ‘fast and easy.’ This is possible, according to their advertisement, because a ‘large inventory of homes priced under market value’ are available this very moment.”

The Chicago Tribune from Illinois. “One local housing snapshot says Chicago-area sales continue to decline, as do the numbers of homes under contract.”

“Headrick-Wagner Consulting reports that in the 12-month period ending Oct. 1, the Chicago region averaged about 5,000 sales per month, down from about 6,300 the previous year. In the 2005 period, sales averaged 7,300 a month.”

“The report said there were 1,649 fewer homes under contract Oct. 1, compared to a year earlier, and about 4,300 fewer than two years earlier, generally considered the very end of the boom.”

Business Week reports on Illinois. “Chicago…has the second-highest housing inventory level in the country. Inventory has shot up 17.2% in the past year, to 82,839, even though the area did not experience the housing boom and speculation buying that led to a market correction in much of the country.”

“It may be that even in Chicago, buyers and sellers have become wary because of all the negative national news about real estate, suggests ZipRealty CEO Pat Lashinsky.”

The Des Moines Register from Iowa. “As some downtown Des Moines developers are shifting from condos to apartments, Hubbell Realty says it will spend nearly $6 million to turn the former Mitchell Transmission building into 31 condominiums.”

“Jarad Bernstein, a Hubbell spokesman, said the company knows the downtown market, it has condo and townhouse projects on Court and Grand avenues, and expects the West End Lofts to sell well.”

“‘Housing may not be selling as fast developers wish, but it’s not a soft market,’ Bernstein said.”

“Forty-eight condos and lofts were sold downtown from January to September, totaling $10.4 million, records from the Des Moines Area Association of Realtors show. For the same nine months a year ago, 69 downtown condos sold, totaling $12 million.”

“The average sale price of downtown housing climbed from $174,587 to $215,728 last year.”

“The Des Moines real estate group shows 352 townhouses and condos on the market, the same as a year ago. Downtown housing took 277 days to sell this year, compared with 161 days a year ago. The association said time on market is high because developers often list homes before construction is completed.”

“‘The downtown market has gotten a bit of a bad rap,’ said B.J. Knapp, an Iowa Realty agent. ‘It has more to do with the overall market slowing than with the downtown market. But it’s nothing catastrophic. This isn’t South Florida or Las Vegas.’”

The Detroit News from Michigan. “Thousands of Michigan real estate agents, some with decades of experience, are getting squeezed out of the business, casualties of one of the worst housing slumps in state history.”

“Michigan agents say a lack of home buyers for the glut of houses on the market is driving them from the business. Those who do manage to move a property are realizing lower commissions as a result of dampened real estate prices.”

“In the last year alone, the Michigan Association of Realtors has lost 10 percent of its membership, or about 3,500 agents. An untold number of agents have taken second jobs to weather the slump or have put their licenses in ‘escrow,’ basically not using them until the market turns around.”

“John Kurczak, now an agent in Sterling Heights, said his current job is one that’s only gotten harder as friends and even family members have fled the real estate business while he’s tried to hold on.”

“Both of his brothers got their real estate licenses within the last year. But after seeing Kurczak struggle, including a situation last winter in which Kurczak was dropped by a couple looking for a home after he took them on 70 private showings, both brothers have decided to wait to get in the business until the market.”

“Sandy Covert said she wishes she had done just that. Lured by tales of plump paychecks and the allure of a job that came with a business card and no uniform, Covert decided in November 2005 to ditch her merry-go-round of low-wage retail jobs for the world of Metro Detroit real estate.”

“But after thousands of dollars spent on preparation and six months working every angle of the market she could, Covert had sold only one home.”

“‘It was a complete embarrassment,’ Covert said of the dilapidated structure a few blocks from her own Dearborn flat that she sold for a mere $4,500. ‘That was all I could sell. I tried harder at this than anything before in my life and I couldn’t make it work.’”

“‘It’s not as if we’re not working hard,’ said Kurczak. ‘But you can’t make people buy houses, which is unfortunate. I’d be a very rich man if I sold everything there is to sell in Metro Detroit.’”




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120 Comments »

Comment by jetson_boy
2007-10-30 12:20:29

“They’ve lowered the price 15 percent and recently installed new carpeting throughout the A-frame, tri-level house to make it more attractive to prospective buyers. Since listing the property, the Bertls have had two offers well below their asking price. Behold the down side.”

ohhhh. A-frame. I think that’s a whole nother’ problem. Any of you actually see what these homes look like? They look like a giant A-frame tent Boy Scouts use… except it’s a house. They were a big fad in the 70’s. They’re also impossible to air condition and heat efficiently. These would be hard to sell in a good market.

Comment by Groundhogday
2007-10-30 12:39:34

‘Just lowering the price doesn’t entice people to buy.’

Uhmmm, seems that you had two offers at a lower price. So perhaps lowering the price WOULD have enticed two people to buy.

Comment by Tommy Tune
2007-10-30 14:12:31

Lowering the price DOES entice people to buy.
PRETENDING to lower the price (15%) does not.
Also, no amount of improvement can make an A-frame look anything but outdated. A-frames were a fad. The fad is over and now they look like homes for old hippie boomers.

 
 
Comment by badger boy
2007-10-30 12:46:38

you forgot the roof…. per square foot, shingles are MUCH more expensive than siding…

also, the roof tends to go quicker on A-frames..

Comment by phillygal
2007-10-30 12:51:01

no wonder the two offers came in so low.

all I know about A-frames is they were the houseplan du jour around the Poconos circa 1973.

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-10-30 13:04:47

I used to live in an A-frame. I agree with you about how they are impossible to heat — too cold down at the bottom; hot-as-hell up at the top. Probably the same way with air conditioning, but I wouldn’t know about that, because most of the houses where I live don’t have air conditioners. Another disadvantage of an A-frame: one time my smoke detector went off (no fire). Since it was located on the highest part of the ceiling, and since I had no ladder tall enough to reach it, I couldn’t turn it off. I finally had to resort to shooting it with a BB gun!

Comment by watcher
2007-10-30 13:21:07

You’ll put your eye out, kid.

Comment by jetson_boy
2007-10-30 13:58:14

My parents had one when they first got married up at the lake. All my dad would say about it was that it was a pain in the ass. They’re sort of like log cabins. Only a niche select few people are actually interested in them. That said… I’ve seen quite a few in other locations for dirt-cheap.

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Comment by Jas Jain
2007-10-30 12:27:00


“‘It was a complete embarrassment,’ Covert said of the dilapidated structure a few blocks from her own Dearborn flat that she sold for a mere $4,500. ‘That was all I could sell. I tried harder at this than anything before in my life and I couldn’t make it work.’”

“‘It’s not as if we’re not working hard,’ said Kurczak. ‘But you can’t make people buy houses, which is unfortunate. I’d be a very rich man if I sold everything there is to sell in Metro Detroit.’”

A sketch of 1.5M “employed” unemployed. In reality, there was no employment growth over the past 12 months. So, “no recession yet” crowd is wrong about the reality of the economy that is not yet reflected in data. There are lots of lags in the economy and the data.

Jas

Comment by DC_Too
2007-10-30 13:23:41

Funny thing is, if I lived in the area, I’d look very closely at Detroit. It’s been beaten into the ground with a sledgehammer, economicaly, for years. There really is tremendous value in residential real estate there. And now, real estate agents are leaving the business in droves. Good stuff - time to start thinking about backing up the truck, with cheap, 30-year fixed paper to boot.

 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-10-30 13:32:26

It’s true. You can be “employed” as an Agent and yet make no money.

 
Comment by bayparkwatcher
2007-10-30 13:50:12

I guess I’m just too jaded by California prices. I can’t believe you can buy something in the U.S. for $4,500!

Comment by Blackbox
2007-10-30 14:11:39

wow, she probably earned like 2 cents an hour!
That does not include overtime…………

 
Comment by DC_Too
2007-10-30 14:12:14

You wouldn’t believe some of the stuff in Motown - old fashioned quality - pre WWII, brick mansions in the 200K range. Replacement cost on those things would be a million bucks, easy. We are not talking stapled together McMansions here….

Comment by chrisinbirmingham
2007-10-30 14:26:06

yeah but you have to keep replacing your stolen cars on a weekly basis so the savings deminish quickly

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Comment by are they crazy
2007-10-30 14:26:41

check out oldhouses.com. There are tons of houses all over the country, though not $4500, are really a great value. Of course, it doesn’t take much to beat CA.

 
Comment by bubbleglum
2007-10-30 15:16:43

I bought a house for $2000 a few years ago and sold it on ebay for $6000.

Comment by Blackbox
2007-10-31 19:23:16

Did you ship it ground?

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-10-30 18:52:13

Covert Operator…

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2007-10-30 12:27:52

‘The thing we cannot control is consumer confidence,’ said James Litten.

True. I guess we should lower rates and press 40,000 more Time2Buy buttons.

Comment by Les Pendens
2007-10-30 14:55:19

 
 
Comment by Red Pill
2007-10-30 12:31:55

“Behold the down side.”

Mwaaaaa haaaa haaa haa ha ha ha

Prepare to witness the full destructive power of this housing bubble.

Comment by Jimmy Jazz
2007-10-30 13:04:46

Luke, you don’t know the power of the down side! Come with me, and we’ll rule the galaxy as father and son! Your mother Suzanne has researched this, you know it to be true!

Comment by Joe Rentor
2007-10-30 13:54:08

Tempted by the Down Side, you are.
Knife falling, you will catch.. Hmmmm.

Focus on renting, you must.

Comment by az_owner
2007-10-30 15:00:59

Awesome!

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Comment by bottomfisherman
2007-10-30 13:06:07

LOL, Happy Halloween… mwahahahahaha!

http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/7500/hw0108pd1.gif

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-10-30 12:41:24

Carmel, IN is so cheap w high incomes-classic midwest
kick asss house 300k

Comment by Northern Renter
2007-10-30 12:59:51

And the high school there is pretty impressive; seemed to have better facilities than the university I went to.

NR

Comment by goirishgohoosiers
2007-10-30 13:32:26

Carmel = Indiana’s answer to the Orange & Marin county poseurs so often mocked on this board.

Comment by Rintoul
2007-10-30 14:34:22

Every burg’s got ‘em.

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Comment by indydad
2007-10-30 13:49:40

meh

i’ll take living in fishers or westfield over carmel anyday.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-10-30 12:43:31

hmmmmmmmmm Henderson,NC or
downtown Des Moines
developers are shifting from condos to apartments, Hubbell Realty says it will spend nearly $6 million to turn the former Mitchell Transmission building into 31 condominiums.”

Comment by oxide
2007-10-30 13:34:34

6 mil to convert 31 condos? That’s almost $200K each.

Population of Des Moines in the city is ~200,000, with a boonie-to-boonie diameter of maybe 15 miles. Are there really that many “young urban professionals” who so badly want to live in the urban(?) downtown that they must needs pay over $200k for a condo?

/rhetorical Q

 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-10-30 12:52:35

Has anyone else noticed that the deluge of sob stories has nearly come to a screeching halt? Now we seem to have moved on to more institutional stories. That may not be a good thing because I don’t think the general public understand enough or be interested enough to read them. I don’t think the average joe/jane understand how deep in the doo doo we are.

Comment by jetson_boy
2007-10-30 12:57:31

Neither does the Fed.

Comment by combotechie
2007-10-30 13:38:08

Oh, I think the Fed understands it quite well.

Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 13:51:13

Ben Bernanke wants to be well liked. He wants to make Wall Street, Paulson, and Bush happy. He will give them what they want which is a rate cut. The FED is supposed to be independent but is anything but.

If they were, they would see the dollar is at an alltime low and that oil is at $93 a barrel and they would not cut but raise rates.

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Comment by jag
2007-10-30 15:29:08

Guys with moustaches want to be liked.

Guys with beards (that I’ve known) don’t seem to be impressed with “big” people too much. Everyone likes to bash Bernanke and maybe he’s a tool or a fool but you can’t say he’s more political or egotistical than Greenspan.
Which is an improvement in my book. Give him a little more time.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 18:26:29

How strange you should declaim upon this subject. I was just barely thinking about how much I like beards. Not on me. I’m a girl. On other people, that are men. And goats. I think I already discussed goats, on last Sunday. Did you know that even girl goats have beards? sally, and Rusty, were my goats. They were pretty much evil and laid in wait to trick me all the time. I was an innocent farm girl in those far away times.

 
Comment by peter wiener
2007-10-31 00:03:45

Yeah, give BB a chance - to ruin your economy!
This spineless academic f@#^k couldn’t run a corner store - except into bankruptcy. He won’t even engage the limited likes of Ron Paul in meaningful discourse about the economy when he is on Capital Hill and is intellectually dishonest in his “beliefs”. The guy will resign before his term expires, most likely after suffering a mental collapse. Given his intellect, it should be a minor event and he will be as villified as much as Gredspin over the coming years. What else is a bankrupt populace going to think of the man who placed them in penury?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-10-30 13:14:45

Wife and I went to look at a model this past weekend that has been sitting in this new gated community since summer 06. About 30 empty lots with two model homes. Price sheet was sitting there and this particular model was $632,000, 3209sq ft house on a 10,000sq ft lot. Very VERY small back yard with about 3 feet of room on each side of the house. I told the realtor that that price was “so 2005 and should well be below the 300,000’s” She laughed and said the builder would negotiate like knocking off $10,000 grand or throwing in a pool. I then said “Lady, that statement is so 2006″.

Comment by Kim
2007-10-30 19:16:58

“I told the realtor that that price was “so 2005 and should well be below the 300,000’s” She laughed and said the builder would negotiate like knocking off $10,000 grand or throwing in a pool. I then said “Lady, that statement is so 2006″. ”

I LOVE it & request permission to use and repeat as often as necessary when dealing with the REIC.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2007-10-30 13:42:13

Good point, where are the sob stories? There must be dozens of new ones every day, but many aren’t reported. Maybe the MSM tried to squeeze a few tears and a bailout from the bleeding-heart politicians. Maybe they got calls from folks who didn’t want to read about a sob story because their own sob story was painful enough. Or maybe the general public feels no ptiy because they know a lot of these sob stories were self-inflicted.

 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-10-30 13:58:16

“Has anyone else noticed that the deluge of sob stories has nearly come to a screeching halt?”

Damn! Just when I bought stock in a violin-string company, because I thought it was a growth industry!

 
 
Comment by mikey
2007-10-30 12:58:05

“‘It’s not as if we’re not working hard,’ said Kurczak. ‘But you can’t make people buy houses, which is unfortunate. I’d be a very rich man if I sold everything there is to sell in Metro Detroit.’”

I bet that you haven’t TRIED using “those squirrels” twirling RE signs while munching your homemade cupcakes :)

Comment by mikey
2007-10-30 14:27:25

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) — A record 17.9 million U.S. homes stood empty in the third quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure.

 
 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2007-10-30 12:58:59

HeliBen to the rescue!

 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2007-10-30 13:00:11
 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-10-30 13:13:32

“‘So many of these people applied for loans stating income they didn’t have. Banks look at it now and say, ‘How did you afford this’ ’? Hernandez said.”

NOW they’re looking. Just when I thought I’ve heard it all, another brick comes falling out of the sky!

I continue to wonder how on God’s green earth banks/lending institutions have yet to claim insolvency.

The magnitude of this madness is making my head hurt!

Leigh

Comment by are they crazy
2007-10-30 13:30:45

Hiya Leigh: Every day I’m shocked by how many people are willing to say such stupid things or admit to being dunderheads. There doesn’t seem to be any dignity left in society. My mom would tell us to think before we spoke and don’t put anything in writing that you didn’t want to come back and bite you (have you ever seen the stuff people put on myspace or facebook?). My dad would say if you don’t open your mouth, no one will ever know how stupid you are. Horrible abusive parents, but we did pick up a few pearls of wisdom from them.

Comment by Leighsong
2007-10-30 13:46:02

Thank you for the laughter. My grams has many of pearls of widsom, spoken mostly in Hungarian, and they’re hillarious.

Go eat a fish head is one of them…what the heck is that suppose to mean anyway?

Smiles,
Leigh

Comment by OCDan
2007-10-30 14:10:05

Better to be thought a fool than open your mouth and prove it.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 13:14:51

“‘It isn’t desperation,’ she said. ‘It’s just to give an incentive.’”

Are you suuuuuuuuure? Are you quite, quite sure this isn’t ‘desperation’?
Oh. Well,okay, then. Long as you’re sure.

Comment by Rintoul
2007-10-30 14:20:07

If it looks like desperation and quacks like desperation…

 
 
Comment by deejayoh
2007-10-30 13:14:59

A-frame, tri-level house

and it won’t sell?

 
Comment by JTBLA
2007-10-30 13:15:58

Hi:
A friend of mine bought his home in the Larchmont Village part of LA for about $400,000 8-9 years ago. He just sold it for $1.299 million and got 2 bids above asking and accepted one $31,000 above! While I am happy for him, as a frustrated renter it does appear as if this city is remaining “sticky” as far as prices go and wonder if it will ever seriously decline (25% or more to make it affordable). I know people here counsel patience, but these kinds of stories make it hard to believe it will ever get that much better here.

PS: He also bought a $1.1 million place in Seattle, paying the asking price.

Comment by HARM
2007-10-30 14:09:08

There’s no “belief” about it –the easy credit spigot can no longer keep the house ATM going and it is being shut down as we speak. Btw, 50% “to make it affordable” is more like it here. Prices here are way above fundamental support levels (area rents and incomes) and must come down or incomes must rise to meet them, it’s that simple.

Can’t do anything about “sticky” and slow though –it’s just the nature of the RE market. Rate resets ensure a down market for 4-5 more years at a minimum, so congratulate your lucky friend, save/invest and keep your powder dry for 2012.

Also, if you’re really a SoCal renter, then why are you “frustrated”? Things have never been so good for renters and are about to get a whole lot better, thanks to the millions of accidental landlords and empty REOs about to hit the pipeline. Relax.

Comment by JTBLA
2007-10-30 14:46:04

Hi: Good points. You are right — 50% is more like it to make things affordable.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-10-30 16:33:19

So your MORON friend is going to pay capital gains taxes on $400K of profit.. and then proceed to lose that $500,000 tax free exemption on his new home.

I guess thats ok if he intends to die in seattle.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2007-10-30 13:19:07

Slightly OT I guess, but here’s an article about the $915B credit card debt time bomb: http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/29/magazines/fortune/consumer_debt.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes

“Dennis Moroney, an analyst at TowerGroup, expects credit card delinquencies will rise as consumers, who have until now used home-equity lines of credit to pay off their cards, start ratcheting up higher card debt. When housing prices were rising, it was easy for consumers to tap the escalating values of their homes to keep borrowing. With the home-equity spigot turned off, over-leveraged consumers may have trouble keeping up with payments.”

And CC debt is sliced and diced just like mortgages. Just another facet of the too-high debt/income ratio. No wonder the CC companies fought for the BK legislation.

 
Comment by wmbz
2007-10-30 13:26:14

“‘It’s not as if we’re not working hard,’ said Kurczak. ‘But you can’t make people buy houses, which is unfortunate.

Well I for one think we should pass a law forcing people to buy houses, I’d hate to see some used house salesman with out work.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-10-30 13:57:15

..you can’t make people buy houses..

nor can you make a salesman from a sow’s ear..

Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 18:34:11

Maybe if you hit it really hard you can.
After all, try try again! If at first you don’t succeed.

 
 
 
Comment by Kathy
2007-10-30 13:30:13

Even the wealthy parts of Chicago are finally slowing down. $1million + McMansions in Hinsdale aren’t selling:

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1619121920071021

Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 13:33:41

And a million bucks just isn’t what it used to be. Especially after tomorrow’s FED rate cut.

 
Comment by ET-chicago
2007-10-30 13:43:43

There are 69 active listings in the town priced at $2 million or more.

Population (2000 US Census): 17,349

 
 
Comment by ET-chicago
2007-10-30 13:30:59

Chicago…has the second-highest housing inventory level in the country. Inventory has shot up 17.2% in the past year, to 82,839, even though the area did not experience the housing boom and speculation buying that led to a market correction in much of the country.

Who’s the clown at the Trib who thinks there was no boom in Chicagoland? Inventory is sky-high because of The Phantom Menace?

Apparently they’ve been hanging out in the NAR headquarters on Michigan Ave. gabbing with Realdrones instead of talking to, you know, real people who can’t get anyone to show up at an open house.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-10-30 13:48:28

“Chicago…has the second-highest housing inventory level in the country.”

Once again - a “Second City”

You’re exactly right about the Tribune.

Seriously though, six months free in condo in downtown Elgin? It still wouldn’t be worth it.

 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-10-30 13:59:44

I was just gonna write, which Chicago is that that didn’t have overbuilding and speculation? South Loop, River North, Trump Plaza, the Spire, hello, hello?

 
Comment by Chris
2007-10-30 15:30:57

I wonder what percentage of these are new housing stock out in Plainfield, Yorkville, Plano, etc.? I don’t see a lot of homes up for sale in the collar ‘burbs - at least not significantly more than any other season. There must be a crapload of developments languishing in the ex-burbs, in which case, the numbers make sense.

My wife and I took a look at new houses out in Oswego in southeast Naperville back in 2002, and even then, at starting prices of $450,000 (AC not included) the prices were ridiculous (all that and a three or four hour commute back and forth to the city?) With gas prices through the roof, I don’t see any appeal whatsoever.

Comment by Steve W
2007-10-30 16:50:02

There are a bunch for sale in the collar burbs. Check out the open house listings in the pioneer press papers, or the Wednesday Journal in Oak Park/River forest. In the last 6 months they’ve had to go to a second page, and smaller print. We don’t have the real estate sign on every block like some places, but for a community that tends to buy there and stay there, there’s more than I’ve seen for 20 years for sale.

Comment by calex
2007-10-30 20:35:57

I’ve seen the same for sale signs since April in the southwest burbs. Like nothing has sold. I had to bite my tongue when my cousin claimed his house was worth x because of an apprasial last year.

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Comment by sabrina
2007-10-30 20:53:10

Yes- the inventory is quite high in the older inner suburbs as well. This inventory is NOT simply the new developments way out in Yorkville or Plainfield. Cities like Downers Grove have inventory levels they would usually see at the peak of the summer.

Same with the city. Lincoln Park and Lakeview inventories are very high. Lakeview looks to be nearly 40% higher than a year ago at this time.

And yes, the Businessweek article clearly has a coastal bias because you can’t go anywhere in the city of Chicago (north of Cermak) and get a two bedroom, two bath condo for under $300,000 (or very few places.) How many 2/2 condos at $450,000 ARE there? Lots of them.

And are $700,000 one bedroom condos a bubble? I don’t know. But that’s what they’re charging in several “luxury” buildings now in downtown Chicago. Didn’t see those prices even in 2005.

They are building like crazy in Chicago. If you walk around the loop and Streeterville on a work day, all you can hear is the sound of pounding from the construction workers.

Sabrina

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Comment by Ponzi House
2007-10-30 23:21:50

The Chicago bubble drove from that city, my home of 12 years. Anyone who says there’s no bubble in Chicago probably owns a bubble home. Here’s my little story…

I was renting a one bedroom apt in Lincoln square, about 7 miles north of the loop for around $750/month. I had been looking for a house, preferably one of the little brick bungalows I’d grown enmored with during my time in the city. The more I looked, however, the higher the prices went. Eventually I decided maybe buying an apartment was the way to go but once again prices kept shooting up. I drove by a condo conversion in my neighborhood, probably 1999 or 2000 and called the number listed on the sign. I knew the realtor was going to cite some otherworldly price like $450 for the condo. When he answered the phone, I asked how much. $800,000!!

Three bedroom, two bath, $800,000! I laughed out loud. I expected him to be a little miffed that I’d laughed but he just told me, “It’s a whole floor. 1800 sq feet. He knew a sucker was in the pipes. His deal was a sure thing. I could laugh all wanted.

The rub is that I could have rented the apartment next to mine, cut a hole in the wall and had 1500 sq feet for $1,500/month. Same type of building, hardwood floors, big windows, except in the condo I’d have to pay heat, water, and an association fee of probably $250/month.

The math tells me that paying pricipal alone I could rent two apartments for over fifty years before I paid for the condo.

Who ever bought that condo is definitly not living the High Life. $11.50 for a hamburger.

 
 
Comment by Chicago Bubble Blog
2007-10-31 07:26:04

Actually, that was in the Business Week article.

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-10-30 13:35:47

“That’s something the Bertls know well. ‘It’s not a conducive market right now for people selling their homes,’ Melinda Bertl said. ‘Just lowering the price doesn’t entice people to buy.’”

RE prices do go down. just lower your price to market prices and it will sell. If that means 30% off so be it. But stop the F%$#@ whining sellers!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 13:36:34

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC ‘Another disadvantage of an A-frame: one time my smoke detector went off (no fire). Since it was located on the highest part of the ceiling, and since I had no ladder tall enough to reach it, I couldn’t turn it off. I finally had to resort to shooting it with a BB gun!’

Hey! I’ve done that too! But not with a BB gun. With a Raven. 25. My starter gun. I still wish I’d gotten the one with the pink pearlized grip, instead of the plain old white pearlized grip. I was not as stylish then as I am now.

Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 13:40:10

Oh you’re stylish eh?

I need to go home… been in Toronto too long (go home on Friday).

Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 18:22:31

Yes. I am. That’s what these rhinestones mean. Stylish, man.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 19:19:49

What ARE you doing in Toronto, anyhow? Is there an Eskimo in this?

Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 20:25:13

I came here for work. (check your email.)

It’s not that COLD! I am so mad. *pouts*…

I am an Oracle DBA and do IT stuff. I had to come up here to work with our application vendor since their app runs like %#&&.

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Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 20:28:59

Also, we went on a tour of Toronto. Nice city. Congested freeways but all in all the people are nice and it is VERY CLEAN. I mentioned that to the guy who gave the tour and he says, “why do you keep saying that?” to which another guy said, “that’s because he is from America.”

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Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 20:48:06

So is Utah. Very clean. But for Chrissakes, don’t say a swear word or talk about Bigfoot! Your relatives won’t see you for awhile–and when they do, guess what? You, too, will be verrry cleeeeean.

 
 
 
 
Comment by veloblues
2007-10-30 13:54:01

“Starter gun”? Now you’re really after my heart;-)

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-10-30 13:38:06

“‘It isn’t desperation,’ she said. ‘It’s just to give an incentive.’”

F%^%$ your measely phoney incentives. i want a drastically lowered price and which i can fight to have my taxes lowered. LOL!

 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-10-30 13:39:18

“It may be that even in Chicago, buyers and sellers have become wary because of all the negative national news about real estate, suggests ZipRealty CEO Pat Lashinsky.”

why is it negative for real estate when I buyers demand 50% off sales?

 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-10-30 13:40:57

“Michigan agents say a lack of home buyers for the glut of houses on the market is driving them from the business. Those who do manage to move a property are realizing lower commissions as a result of dampened real estate prices.”

“In the last year alone, the Michigan Association of Realtors has lost 10 percent of its membership, or about 3,500 agents. An untold number of agents have taken second jobs to weather the slump or have put their licenses in ‘escrow,’ basically not using them until the market turns around.”

with less illegals roaming around maybe these blockheads can flip some butgers or mow some yards to carry them over.

Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 13:49:28

butgers?

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-10-30 13:43:20

Comment by JTBLA
2007-10-30 13:15:58
Hi:
A friend of mine bought his home in the Larchmont Village part of LA for about $400,000 8-9 years ago. He just sold it for $1.299 million and got 2 bids above asking and accepted one $31,000 above! While I am happy for him, as a frustrated renter it does appear as if this city is remaining “sticky” as far as prices go and wonder if it will ever seriously decline (25% or more to make it affordable). I know people here counsel patience, but these kinds of stories make it hard to believe it will ever get that much better here.

PS: He also bought a $1.1 million place in Seattle, paying the asking price.

You should just buy you moron. Maybe you will feel happier feeling like a homedebtor slave.

 
Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 13:45:15

The Canadian dollar reached on Monday a 47-year high versus the US greenback, gaining on the US currency. The American dollar was worth only 95.47 Canadian dollars.

Since the beginning of this year, the Canadian dollar has increased 20 percent, and jumped 69 percent since 2002, when it was trading at a historic low of 61.70 US cents.

The UK pound has hit its highest level against the US dollar in 26 years.

The pound has gained on the perception that US interest rates will be cut this week and UK interest rates will be left unchanged next week.

When UK rates are higher than US rates, investors are encouraged to exchange dollars for pounds to benefit from better rates of return.

While inflation has been a problem in previous months, many analysts now say that the biggest worry is consumers reining in their spending.

Should that happen, they argue, the US economy could splutter into a recession.

Ben Bernanke says, “You better not save. You better go out and spend spend spend. Tomorrow will be a rainy day and you will be you saved since your dollars will be worthless.”

Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 13:54:16

“you will be you saved” should be “you will be mad you saved”

 
Comment by stealth4
2007-10-30 13:59:11

that would be Funny if Bernanke said that, but not in a haha way.

Will he doom the dollar and us by cutting rates again tomorrow?

 
Comment by watcher
2007-10-30 14:25:02

People can’t afford to flee to Canada any more. I guess when times get hard they will go south of the border. Imagine crowds of unemployed Anglos milling around the Tijuana Home Depot looking for work.

Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 14:43:03

They can work at Taco Bell since they are opening up a bunch of Mexican locations. They will need to hire experienced people who know the menu well.

Comment by Mo Money
2007-10-30 15:07:11

And I only think it fair that since no one at my Taco Bell can speak english that the Taco Bells in Mexico be staffed entirely with only non-spanish speaking Americans.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 19:23:57

Real Mexicans don’t even know what our (the USA) version of a taco is. When I wanted a whole bunch of tacos I got a bunch of tightly rolled cigar looking things, drizzled in cream. They were very good, though. I ate about a million. This was in one day. I think I had to be carried home, unless that was another day I am thinking of.

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Comment by veloblues
2007-10-30 15:01:40

That was friggin’ hilarious!

Comment by Olympiagal
2007-10-30 21:01:48

If only you had heard the pretty songs about Mexican firemen that I made up and sang as I ate those million tacos, then you would be even more happy.
(I walked past the firestation on the way to the taqueria. You know how it is. A good song just comes to you.)

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Comment by aimeejd
2007-10-30 14:10:39

‘Just lowering the price doesn’t entice people to buy.’

Nonsense. Lower the price enough and somebody will buy it.

Comment by Chris
2007-10-30 15:13:44

You’re not considering the emotional response to falling prices and the fear of catching a falling knife. Yes, there is a bottom, but while the fever is still raging, lowering and lowering only exacerbates the fear that one is buying too early. The best short-term solution to stabilize prices would be for homes to come OFF the market, not reduce their prices. Of course, this won’t happen because there are two million empty homes on REO blotters waiting to be moved at any cost, and tens of thousands that are distressed or on the verge of being distressed, which FB’s simply can’t take off the market.

 
Comment by Tom
2007-10-30 15:23:41

‘Just lowering the price doesn’t entice people to buy.’

If you don’t lower the price, somebody else will.

 
 
Comment by Nimesh
2007-10-30 14:12:14

All of this talk about a real estate bubble is nonsense. Absolute nonsense. Our government will bail out the housing market and everything will be fine. America is the wealthiest nation on the face of this earth and foreign money will continue to come here because where else can it go? No other nation attracts monetary inflow like America. The world needs America more than America needs the rest of the world (i.e. most nations around the world depend on the American consumer and Americans have more disposable income then anyone else in the world).

Comment by are they crazy
2007-10-30 14:33:20

I’m hoping you’re joking.

 
Comment by mongo78
2007-10-30 14:35:25

In the long run, yes. In the short term, not so much.

 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-10-30 14:47:38

Nice troll

 
Comment by Chris
2007-10-30 15:06:34

There is certainly a good deal of inter-dependability built into the world economy. But I’m wondering exactly how India is going to ride to the rescue of an insolvent United States. More likely that once it hits the fan, the rest of the world will drown with us.

As for disposable income, one must actually have an income to spend it. Check that - one doesn’t even need an income. One needs a credit card and the ability to pay the minimum and apply for more credit cards to take out cash advances as the sole source of income.

Comment by Nimesh
2007-10-31 11:23:26

Exactly Chris, the world is interdependent today and the rest of the world will make sure that America (even though we owe a lot of money, um about 9 trillion dollars) won’t be in economic trouble. I love it, love it, love it. We can live beyond our means and everyone else around the world finances it! It works for me!

 
 
Comment by az_owner
2007-10-30 15:10:39

All of this talk about a real estate bubble is nonsense.

- No, the talk is meaningful and correct.

Our government will bail out the housing market and everything will be fine.

- The gov’t will bail out the big banks to ensure “system stability”, individual FB’s will be left to their own devices, mostly to drown.

America is the wealthiest nation on the face of this earth and foreign money will continue to come here because where else can it go?

- Still mostly true - but only as long as the rule of law holds up.

No other nation attracts monetary inflow like America.

- I’d say the Swiss banks attract their share, but America is still the “big show”

The world needs America more than America needs the rest of the world (i.e. most nations around the world depend on the American consumer and Americans have more disposable income then anyone else in the world).

- True for now, although the other 95% of the people in the world are starting to want their share. If China and India ever become consumer economies, the US will be like Vermont compared to Texas consumption wise. And there’s always our dependency on oil - $100, $200, $300 a barrel? Do we have a choice?

Comment by Mo Money
2007-10-30 15:16:07

why would anyone foreign buy Dollar based US securities these days without a gun pointed at their heads ? The falling dollar, low rates and inflation makes it a sure loss.

Comment by Nimesh
2007-10-31 11:27:19

Also do not forget about the credibility issue. C.D.O.’s, mortgage backed securities were rated AAA and AA. Then investors around the world found out that they were CONNED. Also, don’t forget, with the dollar being devalued, now, when it comes to our debt to foreigners, we owe about 70 to 80 cents on the dollar. I wish I could do that!

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Comment by Ernest
2007-10-30 14:13:16

Phew! We can relax now. High oil prices are practically meaningless. /s

Oil: No longer a heavyweight

Higher efficiency, a more diverse energy mix and a more prosperous nation have softened rising oil’s economic punch.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The days of rising oil prices alone threatening to knock out the economy may be over.

At more than $93 a barrel, oil prices are at or near all-time highs, even when adjusted for inflation.

Yet the economy has so far withstood the impact of rising crude. By contrast, the last time crude prices were this high, in the early 1980s, the economy tanked.

It’s not like oil no longer matters, but it’s clear the the energy economy has changed dramatically. Efficiency gains, higher prices driven by demand - not supply - a more diverse energy mix and the fact that people simply make more money means that energy no longer pulls the overall economy like it used to.

http://tinyurl.com/33z52a

Comment by watcher
2007-10-30 14:22:42

Did they use the phrase ‘new economy’? If you liked it in the 90s you will love it now.

 
Comment by Chris
2007-10-30 14:58:33

The only thing propping up this economy is the almighty Credit Card.

and the fact that people simply make more money

LOL!! I’m sorry. THAT’S funny. That must go along with our zero-inflation economy in which people do not eat food, buy gasoline, or heat their homes.

 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-10-30 15:12:05

Most people were still paying cash those days, now you get to defer the pain with a credit card. Talk to anyone with a brain and ask them if Gas prices don’t worry them or take a large part of their budget. If I could bike safely to work I would.

 
 
Comment by Chris
2007-10-30 14:53:33

At this point, adding new “anything” in hopes of selling your house seems like just another waste of money. The real estate market has gone totally radioactive. You might as well add a water-feature in hopes of drawing attention away from your unobstructed backyard view of Three Mile Island at this point.

 
Comment by Andrew
2007-10-30 14:54:17

What happened to “there was no bubble in Indiana” ?????!!!!!

 
Comment by veloblues
2007-10-30 15:18:52

“Sandy Covert said she wishes she had done just that. Lured by tales of plump paychecks and the allure of a job that came with a business card and no uniform, Covert decided in November 2005 to ditch her merry-go-round of low-wage retail jobs for the world of Metro Detroit real estate.”

“But after thousands of dollars spent on preparation and six months working every angle of the market she could, Covert had sold only one home.”

“‘It was a complete embarrassment,’ Covert said of the dilapidated structure a few blocks from her own Dearborn flat that she sold for a mere $4,500. ‘That was all I could sell. I tried harder at this than anything before in my life and I couldn’t make it work.’”

Dear Ms. Covert,

Please allow me to introduce myself. I am the financial affairs manager of a very wealthy client here in Nigeria that has sadly passed away. Through hard work and smart investing, he has accumulated a large fortune of wealth. After his unfortunate passing, the local Ministry of Taxes wishes to confiscate his entire estate. I am writing you today because of your prominence within the business community and to appeal to your strong desire to help others. If you would be so willing to accept by wire transfer all of my client’s monies (totaling over $12 million USD) and hold those funds within your account for a total of thirty (30) days, I will be most inclined to leave 20 percent to you as my humble way of saying “thank you” for your most kind assistance. Please contact me as soon as possible with your bank routing and account number so that I may begin the process of transfer before the local Tax Minister is able to confiscate it.

I wonder how many desperate realtwhores might fall for it? Granted, there might not be much in the account to vacuum up, but I’m becoming infected with the Halloween spirit.

Comment by reuven
2007-10-31 08:05:39

I think you may have a valid point here. If I were a con-artist, the folks that tried to get-rich-quick in Real Estate would probably be easier marks. And public real estate transaction records makes them easy to identify and locate.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-10-30 16:35:12

• America’s Mortgage Choice, a mortgage licensee based in Crystal Lake, is mailing out fliers proclaiming, “If you can prove your income, we have a home ownership solution for you, regardless of your current credit situation.” The company has teamed up with Advantage Financial Partners and JP Realty to make buying a home “fast and easy.” This is possible, according to their advertisement, because a “large inventory of homes priced under market value” are available this very moment.

 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-10-30 20:45:56

“My speculation is that after 2001, the fear and anxiety that came after (the terrorist attacks), people decided they wanted something real they could hold on to,” Smeed said.

Yeah, because it’s so likely that a terrorist attack will be launched in Naperville, Illinois, wherever that is. Also, a terrorist attack is precisely when you DON’T want to own property, especially if it involves radiation or any other permanent impairment.

 
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