It’s All About The Pricing
Seacoast Online reports from New Hampshire. “Housing prices continue to spiral downward nationwide, making the real estate market tough for buyers and sellers alike. ‘The Seacoast clearly isn’t getting hit as hard, which isn’t to say we aren’t still getting hit,’ York real estate broker Jim Hager said.”
“Carolyn Kindley-Single, a broker in Exeter, said the average price of houses sold by her firm has dipped from $435,000 to $350,000. ‘Educating buyers and sellers about the fact that the market is correcting itself is one of the most important things we’re doing right now. If a house is at fair market value, and the market value has gone down, then it’s where it needs to be and it sells,’ she said.”
“The owner/broker of RE/MAX Coast to Coast in Portsmouth said data from his company shows a housing price drop of some 15 percent from 2004, when prices peaked. ‘Too many people think of a home as an investment instead of a home,’ Paul Hamblett said. ‘There’s a sale going on because we have lots of inventory and lower prices.’”
“University of New Hampshire economics professor Ross Gittell warned that the poor quality of lending during the end of the housing boom could soon affect the region and the rest of the country.”
“‘To a point, (the drop in home prices is) a natural correction, but it’s exacerbated by (loans),’ Gittell said. ‘The real concern coming up is the credit crisis, and the fact that the quality of lending really went down at the end of the housing boom.’”
From Newsday in New York. “A crisis related to mortgage lending has caused a wave of layoffs in the securities industry and threatened annual bonuses, which are much bigger than salaries for many Wall Street workers.”
“Companies that have announced layoffs so far include Lehman Brothers, which cut 2,500 mortgage jobs nationally; Citicorp, which eliminated 1,600 New York City positions last spring; and Bear Stearns, which has shed about 900 jobs in its mortgage unit as well as in other areas.”
“State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said that, depending on how long the credit crunch lasts, job losses might ‘accelerate’ next year.”
“DiNapoli said Wall Street bonuses probably will be smaller this year because third-quarter profits of the seven biggest financial firms based in New York City dropped nearly 65 percent from the year-earlier period.”
“Because of demand by Wall Street workers for everything from jewelry to furs to nannies, home builders and gardeners, every new Wall Street job results not only in two more jobs in New York City, but 1.3 jobs in suburban areas, according to DiNapoli’s office. Using that math, four lost jobs on Wall Street eventually would result in more than five lost positions on the Island.”
“One sign of trouble would be a slowdown in sales of homes in the Hamptons, a favorite place for Wall Streeters to escape on summer weekends. Paul Brennan, regional manager for the Hamptons for Prudential Douglas Elliman, said sales have indeed slowed in recent months.”
“But the phenomenon might be due to home prices that are simply too high, rather than fears about jobs or bonuses, Brennan said.”
The Wall Street Journal on New York. “With the worst housing market in recent years, St. Joseph is enjoying a flurry of attention. Some vendors of religious supplies say St. Joseph statues are flying off the shelves as an increasing number of skeptics and non-Catholics look for some saintly intervention to help them sell their houses.”
“Cari Luna and her husband put their Brooklyn, N.Y., house on the market this year and offers kept falling through, Ms. Luna turned to an unlikely source for help: St. Joseph.”
“After Ms. Luna and her husband held five open houses, even baking cookies for one of them, she ordered a St. Joseph ‘real estate kit’ online and buried the three-inch white statue in her yard.”
“‘I wasn’t sure if it would be disrespectful for me, a Jewish Buddhist, to co-opt this saint for my real-estate purposes,’ says Ms. Luna. She figured, ‘Well, could it hurt?’”
From Business First in New York. “Consumer confidence in New York state dropped to its lowest point in five years in October, according to the monthly survey from the Siena Research Institute in Albany.”
“In Upstate New York, respondents to the survey registered an index level of 67.7, a 7.7 point drop. And looking ahead, SRI said, there is not a whole lot of optimism.”
“‘Future confidence took a beating,’ said Douglas Lonnstrom, SRI director. ‘After Upstate optimism reached a five-year high last January, a combination of high energy prices, the ripple effect of the housing slump and staggering personal debt has led us to equaling the record low.’”
“Buying plans…fell for homes and computers.”
From WNYT Albany in New York. “The housing crunch is taking its toll on the middle class in the Capital Region. Sales of single family homes have hit a five year low according to a report by the Greater Capital Association of Realtors. The housing market started off very shaky this fall in the Capital Region. September saw a huge dip in home sales.”
“Brigitt LeVigne of Clifton Park has been looking for a new home for the past year. ‘It’s been challenging,’ she says.”
“That’s partly because she and her husband have to sell the one they currently own first. Lavigne is concerned that her home is worth less now than a year ago.”
“The issue for the Capital Region is that homes just aren’t selling the way they did last year. The Association of Realtors reports sales of single family homes plummeted 26 percent in September. They’re down slightly for the year.’
“‘There are some houses that do sell rather quickly, everything comes down to prices,’ said Patrick Seeberger of Yankee Realty.”
“A luxury home listed by Willie Miranda on Coventry Drive in Clifton Park, has had many showings. The price tag is just over $400,000, but no takers yet.”
“‘People who are now in the market place need to sell their home first in order to buy a new home so now it’s taking longer to sell their existing home and that’s scaring some of the sellers and buyers in the marketplace,’ said Willie Miranda of the Miranda Real Estate Group.”
The Times Union in New York. “The pace of home sales in the Capital Region fell dramatically in September, according to statistics. Most counties saw a staggering drop in the number of homes sold, compared to the same month a year ago. Schenectady County saw the steepest drop, with sales of single-family homes falling 40 percent.”
“The numbers from the Greater Capital Association of Realtors Inc. hammer home the continuing slowdown of the area’s housing market: The Colonie-based trade association said Monday the pace of home sales is the slowest here since 2002.”
“Most Realtors agree new homes are a particularly soft part of the market. That’s because new homes tend to be more expensive, and home builders are less willing to negotiate down the price of a home.”
“Despite Monday’s rather grim statistics, Realtors say the housing market in the Capital Region is healthy. They stress that the decline is from years of red-hot sales.”
“‘If you price a house right, it will still sell,’ said Anthony Gucciardo, a Realtor in Latham. ‘It’s all about the pricing.’”
“Still, Gucciardo said the slowing market is taking a toll on some Realtors, especially young agents who entered the industry in recent years. ‘A lot of them have left the business,’ he said. ‘It’s unfortunate, but I go into restaurants and I see them waiting tables.’”
‘REPORTER: Most of the properties being auctioned off were in Bushwick, Bed-Stuy and Flatbush. And the prices started between $450,000 and $750,000. These prices are set by the banks, based on what’s still owed on the mortgage and any interest and fees. And because so many homeowners refinanced multiple times they owe every penny that the house is worth so the banks aren’t selling cheap. Even through the auctions are packed, observers say these days only one-tenth of the properties are actually bid on, and the vast majority reverts back to the bank.’
‘MULZAC: Most of the properties are overpriced right now.’
‘REPORTER: And that’s why Elias Mulzac is an investor turned spectator. But it’s also because it’s much harder to get financing.’
‘MULZAC: It’s a domino effect. Right now everyone is hurting. The secondary buyer, the investor and the bank.’
The great hunt for the last of the knife catchers continues.
In the 1987 to 1989 transition, everyone talked about selling their overpriced properties to the Japanese. Well, there wasn’t enough of them to go around. I do think a Japanese buyer paid the high price on my block in 1987, but no others arrived and we bought for one-third off (plus seven years of inflation) in 1994.
O.J. was handy with a knife…
don’t think he’ll lose his F el lay digs
(for rent soon, as he’s got future engagements)
The great hunt for the last of the knife catchers continues.
The banks are doing their best to stick this back on the consumer or the investor. Even the NAR is involved in trying to trick people into purchasing overvalued property with their advertisments of “Now is a good time to buy”.
My slogan to the general public is: “NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO GET BURNED PURCHASING OVERPRICED REALESTATE” Buyer beware!!!
Uh…, I guess you can have that knife. I don’t think I need a knife right now. I can use my teeth. Heeeee, heeeee, heeeee…
My old man was a city fireman back in the 70’s and 80’s in Bed-Stuy. It was a nice place where they used to throw rocks at the firemen when they were putting out fires.The place was one of the biggest s-holes in the country. The wife worked as a social worker in all of those areas up to 2001. You couldn’t pay me $100k a year to live in those places and they are selling for $500k? New York is different….no bubble here.
I remember driving a car to Fort Lee from midtown Manhattan, in the early 90’s, and the carcasses of cars, forlorn furniture and the smell of failure that I drove by, that day.
$500k there?
What does your car trip have to do with Brooklyn?
If you drove to Ft. Lee from midtown, then you went uptown and thru Harlem/Washington Heights on your way tot the bridge, assuming you didn’t take the H. Hudson Parkway.
If you were heading to Brooklyn, you’d head south and east, and then Bed-Stuy is a good trek into Brooklyn.
I took a day long road trip of NYC and environs and might have seen more of the city, than many NY’ers see in a lifetime…
Straight line travel A to B, is for people with no imagination~
I don’t anyone has been claiming recently that New York is different, they have been claiming that Manhattan is different. So far it seems to be (no major price declines of forclosures yet) but that could change with Wallstreet layoffs or poor bonuses. The credit crunch can’t be helping either.
i sure do hope that manhattan is different, although i am increasingly less able to convince myself of that. it sure seems like TS is about THTF — even in manhattan.
the change is most likely to appear — for the first few years of the bust — as simply a precipitious drop-off in sales. new yorkers are quite hardheaded about reducing wishing prices.
Diagree about “first few years”…this thing is moving too fast. When the bonuses are cut, and the mass layoffs start, you’ll see movement.
This is a new one for me…..
What’s a Jewish Buddhist??
Ah, this would be a “Jubu” of course!
Here are some Jewish Buddhist sayings for your day…
“The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single oy.”
“Be patient and achieve all things. Be impatient and achieve all things faster.”
“Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkes.”
Haha!
If there is no self, whose arthritis is this?
Born Jewish (has a Jewish mother) and probably raised that way.
Practices Buddism.
Not as uncommon as you might think.
“What’s a Jewish Buddhist??”
it is hard enough to answer the question, “what is a jew?”
other than having a jewish mother, or by conversion, 3 jews are likely to give you 5 different answers to that question.
that said, i have read that most american buddhists are jewish, although most american jews are not buddhists….
i’m sure that helps to clarify this issue.
“Too many people think of a home as an investment instead of a home,’ Paul Hamblett said. ”
Not that long ago these chameleons were saying a house is the best investment, hence the worlds dumbasses jumped on board. Now all of a sudden it’s a place to live? Real-turds make your local drug dealer seem like a saint.
Great point!
Being a Realtor means never having to say you’re sorry.
Haw! Ahahahahaw! Oh, golly!
WOW! Stocks sure shook off Bernanke’s cut.
What do you have now FED? I think you gave it your best shot.
So question for you. Where would stocks be right now if FED had not cut rates? Where would the DOW be? Where would oil and gas be? Where would the Dollar be?
prepare for emergency 1% rate cut
the Bernanke sentence for stupid savers is in, death by a thousand rate cuts.
13,702 and counting…
My… it seems high oil prices will hurt the economy. Not to mention people might spend less for Christmas… (including me. Despite a $411 purchase of a Wii and games). Although, my cut is due to my nephews and niece being out of the country (I can’t mail my normal $ value of gifts to them.)
We can’t do any more cuts. Now its time to take our medicine. I think the Fed thought that the ECB would bail us out. Instead, they’re letting us see our foolish ways.
Am I the only one who thinks that seeing the October Case-Shiller (due to be released on 12/25/2007 per their “last Tuesday of the month schedule”) is going to be the most interesting Christmas present?
On bubble meter David predicted a 6% to 12% drop October-end of March for DC. Similar numbers for LA too… the risk is that it will go down further.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I am in Toronto for work and I talked to many people who are very knowledgeable. They think those of us in the states are a bunch of idiots. They keep saying, “Our money is worth more than yours, haha.”
The funniest thing about that comment is that they must think Toronto is not a bubblicious place and that, somehow, a slowing US economy will not impact them.
Knowledgeable people?
They keep saying, “Our money is worth more than yours, haha.”
We deserve every damn bit of this. The joke of CAD being worthless paper was WAY overplayed by J6P. I’ve seen it thousands of times on the internet in forums of all types.
Americans wonder why we are hated by our friends now.
We may be resented for the losses people are taking for their treasury notes purchases, but this is not what is causing the hate towards America. IMHO there is hate for us out there because we are the stongest nation on earth, and we allow ourselves to be ruled (not governed) by one of the weakest leaders. America used to promote the values of freedom through our actions. Now it seems we just give it lip service while complaining about gas prices. America is becoming a nation of self pity and weakness. People more than resent self pity from the most prosperous nation in the world. We should return to our sense of competitiveness rather than entitlement, and I imagine many of our problems would go away.
Tom,
I hope you are getting paid in $CAD!
They call their money “LOONIES”
On the bubble comment, property here seems bubble like but there are also a helluvalot of people in Toronto.
Grew up on the border and Americans have always razzed Canadians about their “funny money’…so it’s payback time.
Besides,if a 500 lb gorilla had been leaning on you forever, it would be hard to resist a little schadenfreude.
For the record though, the Canadian RE market is pretty bubbly, and traditionally, when we tank, they follow. Who knows though, this time may be the exception.
I’m sure it’s different in Canada.
I can assure you there is lots of pressure on the ECB to cut rates too, even while the housing market is still relatively health in Europe. If they cut - with the latest statistics about EU economic growth and inflation - the ECB will loose all credibility (not much left anyway). But it would again delay the inevitable, just like Bernanke is delaying the inevitable - and shifting even more of the pain to savers and foreigners instead of Wall Street and the FB’s.
the risk is that it will go down further.
Much like the Titantic!
“Still, Gucciardo said the slowing market is taking a toll on some Realtors, especially young agents who entered the industry in recent years. ‘A lot of them have left the business,’ he said. ‘It’s unfortunate, but I go into restaurants and I see them waiting tables.’”
MWHAHAHAHA!!!!! What have I been telling you guys about upstate NY. A year ago, they were saying the millionares were coming. Now they’re waiting tables. And $400k in Clifton Pork????! BAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
“I go into restaurants and I see them waiting tables.”
Maybe this is a real life version of water finding it’s own level.
Are you familiar at all with the Rochester, NY area?? I have a friend who’s trying to buy there. Her idea and mine of a “steal” are clearly different.
Not really. I’m only familiar with areas between the Hudson east to the Maine border. I can’t imagine Rottenchester being pricey, especially after this bust plays out. Rottenchester, Buffalo and Syracuse, Albany/Schenectady/Troy are all cities in long term decline.
You could buy about a dozen houses in Buffalo for $10k or less each in a crummy neighborhood, or splurge and pay $40k for somewhere a bit safer, as per the listings posted here a few days ago…
Thanks anyways.
RE: Albany/Schenectady/Troy
My son graduated from Rensselaer last January.
When I delivered him to school I was shocked at how “crusty” the area was-especially Troy.
congratulations!
If your friend has to move there, tell them to rent until they get to know the place. Even if the house costs pennies, it would be a waste to buy in some areas that are simply not safe to live.
Very true. I have family that live in Rochester (went to U of R and never left). The are a lot of affordable areas (you can buy for 2x income with a single wage earner), but the difference in atmosphere across the city is startling. Additionally they have such an overstock of housing that you might have to pay a bit to get a house back up snuff after having set empty for so long.
Yeah all of Western NY is boned, I highly doubt Kodak is gonna turn around fast enough to save Rochester. And Buffalo is like Detroit without the economic dynamism..
Though maybe with the superloonie cross-border shoppers will save the day? They’re probably the only reason the Galleria Mall still thrives..
And it pains me because I love the area, but the paint on the writing on the wall is faded, cracked and peeling…
My wife tells me of how Toronto & Buffalo were completely opposite in her parents days…
Buffalo was our 5th largest city and fun, Toronto was stodgy and boring~
Things Change
At least Buffalo has the Canada play. Possible marketing ploy: The Tijuana of the North.
The decay of Upstate New York is depressing and such a waste, really. Okay, they have lousy winters, yes, but the rest of it is unfortunate: the rest of the year, the weather is nice (barring clouds near the Lakes), and the landscape is quite open and relatively undeveloped, at least compared to your average sprawl-choked place on the East Coast. But, the high taxes, poor economic decisions, and lousy winters have driven everyone away.
Niagara Falls on the American side is such a sorry example of all this. Yes, nature dealt the Canadian side a much better view, but Niagara Falls, US could be a nice place for the obvious tourism. Sadly, it is a dump - and a sort of reminder of how such much has ended up squandered in Upstate New York. A shame, really.
CNBC BREAKING ALERT.
TRADING CURBS IN EFFECT AT THE NY STOCK EXCHANGE.
Here is a link. 8 minutes after open.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0137853220071101?rpc=44
Yet GOOG is up. Flight to safety? HAHAHAHAHA
There are only curbs on the downside, though. We all know that stock prices can never get too high, only too low.
“There are only curbs on the downside, though.”
That is not ture in all cases… http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html
The Dollar is going up, after we lowered interest rates?
Bizarro World rules apply.
also steep drop in Treasury rates today, bizarro indeed.
“The PCE price index excluding food and energy, or core PCE, rose 0.2% after inching up 0.1% in August.”
“The Federal Reserve watches the year-to-year PCE price index excluding food and energy closely for signs of problematic inflation.”
What’s up with this “core” crap?? Am I the only one who eats, buys gas and pays utility bills???
What’s up with this “core” crap?? Am I the only one who eats, buys gas and pays utility bills???
With the way the economy is now, I think that’s all anyone can afford to do.
Actually, the price of apple cores isn’t up!
Come on, toothpicks, rubber bands, vinyl record album covers, and toenail clippers are clearly showing that inflation is only rising at 1.231245324312% of 65.45934 pallets of skim milk on snow days in Hell, Michigan during the rainy season of March in leap years.
You guys are such goobermint haters. I really trust the CPI. The goobermint would never lie to me. Never. Never.
Here is a link to the Lansner “Misery Index” of states bases on unemplyment and inflation provided by Patrick net. This is interesting and all of the states headed for misery are listed below the 5 worst and best.
Wisconsin is 5th worst and and the toast is burning
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/31/california-ranks-26th-for-housing-misery/?ref=patrick.net
Maybe the upper Midwest could just be called Midwestsippi or something like that.
I think FL is so far down on the list because half the state is retirees that do not figure into unemployment.
Interesting chart. They should figure in the tax burden somehow. That would move the rankings around somewhat.
Awwww shit, we’re down at the bottom. I think it’s a delayed reaction. Wait til the ARM resets hit and the equity locusts stop showing up. They think our stuff is such a bargain here.
RE: Misery
I’m remember reading a long ago article about those Top 5 states joining with the western oil provinces of Canada to establish a new country.
My father always said the real US starts west of Chicago.
2008 number one worldwide US Export Product: St. Joseph Statues? Maybe Wall Street can even bundle one for free with every piece of CDO crap that they sell to stupid foreigners?
Too bad for Hank and Ben that they (probably) import them from China, but maybe some Google wizard can make a virtual version of it that works just as well
I’d like to order a large st joseph, preferably in orange, and permanently shove it up Mozilo’s ass.
Pardon my ignorance, but I was able to derive what FB stood for back in the day when I started to read this blog, but for the life of me I haven’t been able to decipher the “Joshua Tree” meme that’s been going around lately. Anyone care to enlighten me?
Me to…. I can only guess….. A West Coast Anal Probe or something of that nature?
FB = “Frigged Borrower” (replace first word with F-word of your choice.
Joshua Tree = small tree found in California, reputed to be useful for performing amateur colonoscopy on housing shills.
NR
that’s the treatment prescribed for anyone who was stupid or foolish or ubergreedy or fraudulent during the RE BOOM:
a Joshua Tree in the booty.
(coined by ex-nnvmtgbrkr)
Google up a picture of a Joshua tree and think of it being used by a proctologist.
You guys are going to make Mole Man mad with all this “toilet humor.”
There’s a nice picture of a Joshua Tree in the new National Geographic. Ouch!
Is there a Realtor ™ on top?
Mother Nature’s concertina wire, all over a tree.
This represents 5,000 solid middle to upper middle class jobs, in which they all earned their livings, on the basis of one giant colossal fraud…
Called
The Housing Bubble
“Companies that have announced layoffs so far include Lehman Brothers, which cut 2,500 mortgage jobs nationally; Citicorp, which eliminated 1,600 New York City positions last spring; and Bear Stearns, which has shed about 900 jobs in its mortgage unit as well as in other areas.”
chrysler eliminating 12,000, i think ford and gm will be looking to cut 10-12% of workforce. If you count a similar proportion in their supply chain, its probably a 50,000 to 100,1000 jobs gone in the next 6 months. I dont understand how payrolls can be going up when you have major sectors of the economy finance, auto and construction eliminating jobs.
real jobs are no longer required thanks to the BLS Birth/Death model
But but but “jobs are plentiful, unemployment is at an all time low and the economy is roaring” sez Dana Perino.
In this country of style killed substance, they’ve inserted the perfect beautiful foil, into the mouthpiece of white house spokes wheel…
We are still too intimidated by the shallowness of her looks~
She ain’t no CJ Craig. Typical that they would find an insipid barbie doll. Couldn’t they find some other woman that has a brain and personality? I
She’s not all that. She’d make an acceptable bukake canvas, but nothing to right home about.
WRITE home about. Duh
“But but but “jobs are plentiful, unemployment is at an all time low and the economy is roaring” sez Dana Perino.”
Yep, jobs are plentiful, judging by the number of Help Wanted signs at the fast-food joints here in Boone. All you have to be able to do is know how to say “Would you like fries with that?” in Spanish!
Yeah, but stupid Americans want jobs that actually pay enough to LIVE on in America… silly us! Good thing inflation (not counting food, energy, education, medical care, etc.) is tame!
RE: chrysler eliminating 12,000, i think ford and gm will be looking to cut 10-12% of workforce. If you count a similar proportion in their supply chain, its probably a 50,000 to 100,1000 jobs gone in the next 6 months.
Take a walk thru a Big 3 auto dealership on a Sunday and take a quick look at their products.
Thin sheet metal, plastic pieces, of overpriced junk.
Just give the market to all to the foreigner builders and be done with it.
HD74…. Detroit has been obsessed with losing weight for years now. The only detroit iron you’ll seen in showrooms is 3/4 and 1 ton trucks
RE: The only detroit iron you’ll seen in showrooms is 3/4 and 1 ton trucks
Exeter-
And those will be gone when it takes $150/$200 to fill the gaz tanks.
I recently spent $85.00 re-fillin’ three-quarters of a tank for Chevy panel van I rented to move some stuff.
I was on horror!
I know. I’m fortunate enough to have a fuel card from my employer. But I’m speculating that oil is going burst just like housing. The best cure for high prices is yet higher prices.
They let go 1,100 contract workers yesterday, and IIRC are going to let go about 1,000 more salaried workers.
Those contract jobs at HQ were often good paying ones too. Every time a headhunter told me about one it was in the $30/$40 an hour range, not exactly chump change (here anyways).
speaking of detroit and environs, i heard on npr yesterday that in flint, the city is bulldozing abandoned houses and selling the lots to the neighbor — for $1.00 (one dollar!).
RE: heard on npr yesterday that in flint, the city is bulldozing abandoned houses and selling the lots to the neighbor — for $1.00 (one dollar!).
New land sale comparables.
A $1 for a houselot.
Gonna be hell on the property tax assessors.
The abandoned houses were most likely city property anyway, no difference to the tax assessors, except that they decreased the value of occupied houses in the neighborhood. A vacant lot is probably cheaper for the city to police than a vacant house. I’ll bet they got a grant for the cost of razing the old buildings. I suspect we’ll see a lot (no pun intended) more of this all over the USA in years to come.
Is it probable that the whole mind-set of the Brobdingnagians, is to stay alive and have one last orgy of bonus money, this xmas?
Wouldn’t put it past them…
“DiNapoli said Wall Street bonuses probably will be smaller this year because third-quarter profits of the seven biggest financial firms based in New York City dropped nearly 65 percent from the year-earlier period.”
I wouldn’t spend all those bonus money this year if you know what I mean… The people who made the most money, sell the most toxic investment junks to investors.
I’d like to see how Merrill for one could rationalize paying bonuses when it did not make money and its stock is near the low.
Because if they don’t the 80-90% of the desks that weren’t involved in O’Neal’s Folly and who actually had a pretty good year will mutiny.
But I thought they were all part of the team? You know, share the ups and downs together?
Sorry, I forgot……this is America, it doesn’t work that way anymore. Privatize the gains and socialize the losses.
“Because of demand by Wall Street workers for everything from jewelry to furs to nannies, home builders and gardeners, every new Wall Street job results not only in two more jobs in New York City, but 1.3 jobs in suburban areas, according to DiNapoli’s office. Using that math, four lost jobs on Wall Street eventually would result in more than five lost positions on the Island.”
Four & Five = Four Lost Jobs
Bizarro Math
Government unemployment numbers, inflation numbers, M3 numbers mean nada, zip, squat, nothing. They are about as accurate concerning the economy as “Zillow” is in pricing property. Anyone who actually uses any government numbers or Fed numbers these days of ultimate government manipulation of information, when trying to form a picture of where we are and where we are going, are wasting their time.
One website I watch which, like this one, has been consistantly correct and which ignores all government numbers, states that inflation is currently running at 10% and looks to be heading for 12% within 12 months. I figured 7% with a 50/50 chance of 10% in 12 months. Bernanke figures it’s tame. Obviously, like a lot of the Washington Hacks and politicians, Bernanke lives in a Ivory Tower.
The same website states a recession is 90% certain. I think we are already in the early stages of a recession. On the other hand, Bernanke and the rest of the clowns who have consistantly mis-lead us, says we will avoid a recession.
Remember, these were the “experts” who said sub-prime would not spread and was contained. Throw in one of The Wall Street Gangsters top “Godfathers” who has slithered into a powerful government position with the sole purpose of protecting the Wall Street Financial Gangsters interests (Henry Paulson) and who continually states, “America has a strong dollar policy,” as the US dollar continues it’s journey into the depths of the toilet, and you can see why I have NO interest in anything they say or do.
Mike - what website would that be?
Packman
Check out: Sirchartsalot and Cyclepro for starters.
Care to give the name of this website?
best I’m aware of ref. the intentional elasticity of government stats is http://www.shadowstats.com. respected and referred to by lots of investment/econ folk from John Mauldin to Bill Gross to Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff and others….
“Because of demand by Wall Street workers for everything from jewelry to furs to nannies, home builders and gardeners”……
Ah yes, the necessities of life.
Too many people think of a home as an investment instead of a home,’ Paul Hamblett said
This is the new mantra of realtwhores. What it really means is that they are frustrated because people are finally starting to THINK before buying a house instead of acting on emotion or greed. No realtwhores were complaining about houses being thought of as investments when prices were going up.
Believe it or not a guy from the “Group” just sent us a newsletter extolling the virtues of houses as a long term investment (just ignore the huge losses behind the curtain). My wife and I just laughed. This particular agent started in the business right around 2000. He’s a great salesman, but I wouldn’t take investment advise from him, and really, he shouldn’t give it.
The rules of the game in business for a long time have been…
The more work you put into the brochure/commercials/advertising, and the more professional your “Appearance” is, the better chance somebody else will never take a look, at what’s not behind curtain #1.
I’d venture with the right advertising, I could get people to send money to the Potemkin Village Hedge Fund, or Chuck Ponzi & co., Bankers, as long as my presentation looked sharp…
Reasoning, fatalism, love of children, need of shelter, investment, relativism, statistics, climate change, interest rates, lies, truth, whatever. What do you need to hear to buy a house TODAY? They will say the words.
The Commerce Department’s report that consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent in September, slightly lower than the 0.4 percent increase that analysts expected, raised concerns about a slowing economy, and worries that the Fed might still consider inflation a more important issue.
Stocks Plunge on Oil, Credit Worries
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071101/wall_street.html?.v=35
this is disturbing, why wouldent they want the fed to worry about inflation? isent that their job?
It’s all about the pricing
Get this. The realtor who showed me the house on which I placed a 40% under-price offer took issue with my comment that the sellers were greedy heirs as they had not paid a single cent for the house and were rejecting offers outright without a counter. She replied that I should consider the sellers’ perspective as the house house had already been marked down 30% from what the realtor had originally told them to ask.
I replied to effect of, “Oh, those poor sellers duped by a realtor to believe that their mom’s house was worth more than it is. How do you think I would have felt had I paid the original asking price last year and had to list it today for less than 30% of what I had paid?”
If the house doesn’t sell in another week, I’m going back in with a 50% under-price bid based on all the bad news I’m reading about housing. I love f-ing with the fake-tors. Bwaaahaaaahaaahaaa!
Why bother with a counter? Let them come back to you (when they get no other offers).
THEN hit them with the 50% off bid. By contacting them you’re just signifying interest and LOWERING their perception of a need to further discount. Silence is terrifying in this instance. Use it to your advantage.
“Silence is terrifying in this instance. Use it to your advantage.”
Exactly. Although I may have offered 50% with the implied threat of less(45%) if they countered or whined.
While they didn’t counter, per se, the week after my offer was submitted (complete with comps, renovation costs, and my personal financial wherewithall) they dropped the price by another 6%. So, I’m sensing a slight sense of realization creeping in. I also know that there is another very interested prospective buyer who is, no doubt, less analytical than I; so I’m feeling that my only chance against him is to be the “better buyer” (as opposed to the “better price”) with an offer on the table. That is, if he’s the only perceived offeror, even with a bunch of contingencies he might get the place for what might only be a little more than my offer.
Fed Intervenes in Financial System
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071101/fed_markets.html?.v=2
“‘To a point, (the drop in home prices is) a natural correction, but it’s exacerbated by (loans),’ Gittell said. ‘The real concern coming up is the credit crisis, and the fact that the quality of lending really went down at the end of the housing boom.’”
Wasn’t the run up in values ALSO exacerbated by loans? SO in effect, the market is trying to return back to normal. The availability of financing isn’t doing anything on the way down that it wasn’t doing on the way up.
This is a good point.
If the past is any guide, it could take the media probably another year to make this connection.
As for an “economist” - what’s his excuse?
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0143151620071101?rpc=44
Don’t know if this was already posted. First American sued …WAMU colluded on mortgage appraisals.
RE: WAMU colluded on mortgage appraisals.
All should be prosecuted under federal RICO rackeetering statutes
RE: eAppraiseIT, known as EA, “caved to pressure” from Washington Mutual to use a list of preferred appraisers who provided inflated home appraisals, the attorney general’s office said.
Lottsa innocent homeowners payin’ big property taxes because of these scumbags.
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-01 07:40:06
What’s up with this “core” crap??
The fake number from core inflation was invented so that the Feds could pretend that inflation was lower than it really is. Totaaly meaningless - and invented by the good little right-wing supply siders.
Why do we keep having record tax receipts quarter after quarter if supply side tax cuts are so bad? Even with all the insane government spending the deficit is shrinking.
It’s called “inflation” my friend.
The fastest way to devalue that debt.
If I buy an ounce of gold at $500 and then sell it at $800. The gov’t taxes me on the $300 gain. Do I get to deduct inflation? Not a chance.
Going down? If I recall my 2nd grade math correctly a bigger number is a higher number:
Here is the national debt stats:
1980 930,200,000,000 (and then came Ronnie)
1990 3,233,300,000,000 (and then Georgie I who at least had the sense to call suply-side, voo-doo economics
2000 5,674,200,000,000 (and now Georgie II)
2005 7,932,700,000,000
2006 8,506,900,000,000
I think what you mean is that hasn’t been growing as fast during the past 3 years as it did from 2000 to 2004. The new debt ceiling as of 9/2007 is now $9.815 trillion. It was jsut raised - and it had to be raised because the debt is still increasing.
“Carolyn Kindley-Single, a broker in Exeter, said the average price of houses sold by her firm has dipped from $435,000 to $350,000. ‘Educating buyers and sellers about the fact that the market is correcting itself is one of the most important things we’re doing right now. If a house is at fair market value, and the market value has gone down, then it’s where it needs to be and it sells,’ she said.”
so this broker’s selling point is “look the price went down, now it is priced right” but not saying that the price will keep falling! i kinda feel sorry for anyone who would be took in by this sales tactic.
back to the US dollar
I expected some strength. there are a lot of bears that are contrarian and predict that the dollar will strengthen as the economy tanks. Historically in a worldwide recession which looks probable nations always come back to the US dollar because its got such a reputation of being safe.
I think you may see further dollar weakness but at a point it will become old reliable and strengthen later in the cycle
A tale of 2 currencies:
The New York Jets currency, of the Indianapolis Colts currency
Which one is worth more?
A country’s currency is based upon performance, just like an NFL team.
We are currently 0 and 7, with a little more than a year to go in the season…
The Next Worry: Bond Issuers
Think, “Credit Default Swaps”
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/oct2007/db20071031_063325_page_2.htm
ACA won’t reveal its clients, but one is Bear Stearns (BSCC), one of the biggest underwriters of CDOs and home of the two subprime-related hedge funds that imploded this summer. Bear and ACA have close ties. In 2004 the investment bank’s private equity arm invested $105 million in ACA, and Bear remains the company’s largest shareholder, with some 27% of its stock. ACA Chairman David E. King is a senior managing director at Bear and an executive vice-president of Bear’s private equity group.
A recent regulatory filing by Bear reveals that in March and again in May ACA “entered into an insured credit swap” with a Bear affiliate. The precise nature of the deals couldn’t be determined, although a person familiar with Bear says its coverage with ACA is “minimal.” Depending on various banks’ level of reliance on ACA, the insurer’s policyholders might now have at least some reason to worry.
‘It’s unfortunate, but I go into restaurants and I see them waiting tables.’”
No, it’s not unfortunate that the former realtors are working in the fast food industry. They helped fuel this mess and are now paying the price for greed, their lack of education and lack of employment skills that can be used in other industries.
The fast food industry doesn’t employ waiters, thats why its called fast food.
It does say a lot that the real estate “professionals” of last year have no marketable skills other than waiting tables.
The Seacoast clearly isn’t getting hit as hard, which isn’t to say we aren’t still getting hit,’ York real estate broker Jim Hager said.”
“Carolyn Kindley-Single, a broker in Exeter, said the average price of houses sold by her firm has dipped from $435,000 to $350,000.
Heck we are only down 20+%, You should see Arizona…….
“Some vendors of religious supplies say St. Joseph statues are flying off the shelves as an increasing number of skeptics and non-Catholics look for some saintly intervention to help them sell their houses.”
I showed the WSJ St. Joseph article to a coworker, and it rung a bell. The next day, she brought in a statue of St. Joseph which exactly matches the one in the photo on the inner page of the paper edition of the WSJ, which was dug up from her yard when she did some landscaping some time ago. At the time she saved the statue, but had no idea of its significance before I showed her the article.
It appears that good old St. Joseph helped the former owner sell the home to my coworker’s husband a few years back, and it worked!
I’m so happy to hear that the people of the Capitol Region are finally getting a grip as concerns the RE Bubble.
It’s such a beautiful area of the country and the people there have such great energy. Location is superb too, being fairly close to NYC, Boston and Montreal, not to mention the beauty of Vermont, the Adirondacks and the Berkshires.
But it’s losing population like crazy and depressed economically. When RE was cheap, they were attracting a lot of community-building, civic minded people who went up there to live and STAY, precisely because it was affordable.
These people were shuffled to the side in favor of developers and RE flippers who just rape a place and leave. RE really needs to crash there so they can get back to solid community building again.