Prices Have Plunged But That’s Not Enough In Florida
Miami Today reports from Florida. “Recent reports show South Florida is second in the nation in foreclosures, with Brickell condos racking up the highest numbers locally. With 54 foreclosures, The Club at Brickell Bay, 1200 Brickell Bay Drive, leads to pack. The Vue at Brickell, a conversion project follows with 49 foreclosure actions. In third place is The Jade at Brickell Bay.”
“In all, Condo Vultures reported 8,533 Miami-Dade properties worth $2.37 billion in some phase of foreclosure over the year to date.”
The Daily Businesse Review. “Talk of short sales in real estate circles is soaring along with loan defaults and foreclosures in South Florida and nationwide. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encourage working out loans in default for people in trouble with their primary residences, said Timothy Allen, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida.”
“But real estate agents who need deals to make a living aren’t likely to be pushing that option.”
“‘That’s not the advice the Realtors are giving because they are selling a house and the lender is the screwdriver and the Realtor is the hammer,’ Allen said. ‘If the only tool I have in my toolbox is a hammer, every problem will be a nail.’”
The Naples News. “Collier County continues to see a decline in prices and sales. A report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors shows the median home price in the third quarter fell to $375,000, down $15,000 from the previous quarter.”
“There were 786 closed sales, down from 1,326 in the second quarter and 961 a year ago. In Lee County, 327 existing single-family homes sold in September, down 53 percent from 693 a year ago, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. The median home price fell 11 percent to $231,600.”
“There is more than a three-year supply of homes on the market in both Naples and Fort Myers.”
The News Press. “Housing permits remained at low levels in October, with Cape Coral recording 15 for single-family homes. That’s the lowest in memory, about half of September’s 29 and less than 8 percent of October 2006’s 203, according to a report.”
“The pace was a little better in unincorporated Lee County, where 91 single-family permits were issued, the county reported.”
“‘The market got so wild and hot that even the government couldn’t have corrected what happened,’ said Bob Knight, president-elect of the Lee Building Industry Association. ‘We just happen to have climbed a higher altitude than other areas of the country.’”
“The number of foreclosures filed in Lee County spiked to an all-time record of 1,538 in October — led by a big increase in primary homes.”
“In Lee County, of the 1,108 single-family homes that went into foreclosure in October, 472 were homesteaded residences where a family lives a majority of the time. That’s up from 395 homesteads in September.”
“‘The homesteads are starting to creep up too; that’s the unemployment,’ said mortgage broker Jeff Tumbarello of Network Funding Solutions. ‘That’s bad, that’s not something we want to happen. It’s one thing for that to happen to the speculators, that’s kind of a cleansing, but the people who live and work in Lee County, we need to keep them here.’”
“Cape Coral also led the county in foreclosures with 679, followed by Lehigh Acres with 427 and Fort Myers at 308. Overall, the number was up 26 percent from September’s 1,220 and up 337 percent from 352 in October 2006.”
“As foreclosures have mounted, prices have plunged but that’s not enough to bring back the market, Tumbarello said. ‘You can buy houses for well under 100 grand in decent areas, but taxes and insurance are still more than $400 a month’ and that’s keeping buyers away.”
“He noted that for a $90,000 house, about $450 of the $1,050 total monthly payment would go for real estate tax and home insurance.”
“Real estate broker Steve Koffman in Cape Coral said that as prices have fallen from their peak in December 2005, a lot of people now are trying to sell their houses for so-called ’short sales.’”
“The median price of a single-family home in Lee County has fallen to $231,600 in September, the latest month available, down 28 percent from an all-time high of $322,300 in December 2005, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
The News Journal. “The Volusia-Flagler economy got a double dose of bad news this week from two reports released Thursday.”
“RealtyTrac reported court filings related to foreclosures were at 2,636 in the third quarter in the two-county area, up about 288 percent from 680 in the third quarter of 2006. Taxable retail sales took a tumble in July, down about 4.5 percent from July 2006.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Home builders continued cutting back in the Orlando area this summer, as new-home starts plunged 47 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago.”
“Anthony Crocco, director of MetroStudy’s Central and Northeast Florida divisions, said the sharp decline in Metro Orlando is a reflection of ‘the slow sales paces and high cancellation rates of late summer and early fall.’”
“His survey of subdivisions showed that the number of homes sold and occupied in the third quarter totaled 3,850, down 29.8 percent from the same period in 2006.”
“Total inventory, homes under construction, finished-but-vacant units and model homes, totaled 10,412 at the end of the quarter. But at the recent slow sales pace, that still amounted to a 6.6-month supply. And the critical finished-but-vacant category fell just 9.9 percent from a year ago, to 5,264 homes.”
The Ledger. “Polk County’s economic forecast for the coming year isn’t great, but it could be worse. That was the message from a local economist and a national analyst.”
“September sales of existing homes in Polk are down 44 percent from a year ago; building permits for new home construction are down about 36 percent and the county’s unemployment rate is on the rise.”
“‘Can it get worse?’ asked Gordon Kettle. ‘In all the years I’ve been tracking data, I’ve never seen it worse.’”
“There are about 4,750 existing homes for sale in Polk’s real estate market. New home construction, declining home values and high asking prices are all slowing the market. At the current rate, Kettle said it would take nearly two years to turn the entire inventory.”
From TC Palm. “The number of new homes being built in St. Lucie and Martin counties dropped to among the lowest levels in a decade during the third quarter of 2007, while the construction of new homes fell in Indian River County, a quarterly housing report showed.”
“There were 463 new single-family homes occupied during the third quarter in St. Lucie. Finished vacant inventory totaled 1,283 units at the end of the third quarter of 2007, down from the record level of 1,369 in the second quarter of 2007.”
“Martin County’s supply of vacant developed lots was 1,905 at the end of the third quarter, a 66.6-month supply at the current annual starts pace — the lowest in more than a decade — the report stated.”
“The inventory of finished vacant homes fell to 905 units, from 1,012 at the end of the second quarter, bringing the months-of-supply figure down to 7.8 months from the record 8.3 months at the end of the second quarter.”
“There are 5,083 vacant developed lots in Indian River County, a 74.2-month supply at the current annual starts pace.”
The Tampa Tribune. “Slow job growth, coupled with the effects of a troubled real estate market, is pushing down demand for new homes in the Tampa Bay area, according to a report.”
“Builders started work on 1,732 single-family homes during the third quarter of 2007, down nearly 57 percent from 3,993 in the same quarter last year, according to Metrostudy.”
“Single-family closings during the third quarter of 2007 totaled 2,754 units, 35.8 percent lower than last year’s third-quarter rate of 4,287 units. Metrostudy counts a closing as a home that is now occupied.”
“Single-family inventory, which includes units under construction, finished vacant units and model homes, was 8,242 at the end of the third quarter. That represents a 6.8-month supply of homes and means it would take that long to sell them all at the current selling pace.”
“Joseph Narkiewicz, executive vice president of the Tampa Bay Builders Association, said the increased finished inventory is made up mostly of homes bought by speculators, not homes that builders have been unable to sell.”
“‘There’s still demand for new homes,’ Narkiewicz said.”
‘There’s still demand for new homes’
IMO, what the press is missing in Florida is the same concept we’ve seen in Las Vegas. Sure new houses sell better because they are undercutting existing house prices. But that just drives foreclosures. Even if they don’t build on spec.
The underlying problem is, IMO, that prices are still artificially high and builders won’t stop over-supplying the market until those price fall significatly.
‘The homesteads are starting to creep up too; that’s the unemployment,’ said mortgage broker Jeff Tumbarello of Network Funding Solutions. ‘That’s bad, that’s not something we want to happen. It’s one thing for that to happen to the speculators, that’s kind of a cleansing, but the people who live and work in Lee County, we need to keep them here.’
Again, this was entirely predictable. I used to do some accounting for construction firms and was amazed at how much side work is involved. I used to estimate that there are 4 or 5 jobs for every guy you see on a work site. So not only has the industry stolen buyers from the future, they have stolen jobs from the future by over-building.
And they layoff numbers are even worse for the Housing industry then what the announced numbers says since so much of the housing industry is sub-contractors. A big builder says they are laying off 500, that is just their own employees, it does not include all the sub-contracted laborers, masons, electricians, plasterers, plumbers, etc etc. When you add in all the other employment that is driven by the building industry especially in bubble times and the numbers are huge. However the press release don’t count them since they are not direct employees of the big company making the announcement.
does this include illegals or “undocumented guest workers” to be PC?
Ben,
Another 300lb gorrila nobody is talking about is the occupancy rates and prices for rentals. We are currently closing in on the rental rates from when we bought in 1995. Our occupancy is suffering,stuck at way less than 80% for the last year.
The only thing keeping us solvent is the units are paid for. I am going to guess anyone who only put 10% or less down on commercial units in the last 5 years is screwed. With insurance and taxes as high as they are i can’t see anyone having any positive cash flow…
Honestly…I dont see anything in the near future wich will help…
Chris
Right, and we have AG talking about ‘vacant, deteriorating’ inventory. Here in Flagstaff, developers are busy finishing, and renting!! condos. So these aren’t really condos, but apartments; they just haven’t announced/admitted to the reversion yet.
Wow…
Cobradriver know’s what he’s doing, and has a built in cushion of paid offness and can’t keep his places occupied, so he’s ok, but he’s the exception, not the rule.
Scary stuff, kids.
I’d expect apartments to take a hit. But for now they are flourishing nationally, according to data produced by my firm.
Last quarter the former ownership units entered the market faster than the former owners in some markets. This quarter, however, it is the reverse — the former FBs are now renting, the foreclosures are sitting empty, and falling prices are dissuading people from buying.
And deteriorating inventory in the literal sense, too A couple of years of neglect with a leaky roof and walls in Florida, combined with Termites, etc, can cause a house to need a lot of expensive repairs in a hurry.
(And brand new homes in Florida frequently leak! They essentially depend on the first occupant to find all the places where the roof wasn’t applied right, the stucco wasn’t thick enough, or the flashing was missing. I’ve seen new florida homes that used “artificial stucco” where rain combined with wind would cause water to seep through the walls. Do a google search for “EIFS Stucco” to see some of the lawsuits regarding this stuff)
The glut of inventory in Florida may simply rot, be eaten by termites or consumed by mold and mildew. That would solve the oversupply problem.
Leave a house, especially a frame house in Florida vacant, with no air for a year and you have a problem, maybe solvable. Leave it for two or three years and if it doesn’t fall down it is so eaten up by a variety of things, it needs to be bulldozed.
I would think the folks in the mold remediation business would be flourishing and presantly, they are, according to a friend of mine in the biz. He’s worried that, based on some of the houses he has seen, it will become cheaper to tear the house down and start over. Mold remediation can get costly.
“EIFS” Don’t get into building construction disasters here…this is a housing blog. I could go a week on that topic. The stuff looks great to humans on the outside (of the walls), and looks great (to mold) on the inside. Message to everyone here: Stay clear of this garbage…or you will be stripping your house to its framing, and sooner, rather than later.
For the first time in 10 years my rent went is going down 10$ from the currnet rent. I have in the same apprment for three years. It went up 100$ , and 50$ in the lsat two times. I was suprised when I got the new leas last week
I just got my landlord to drop the rent $100 in Naples. He’s a reasonable guy though.
I live in Southwestern Ohio. Yesterday I saw a sign saying that this weekend a 32 unit apartment complex will be auctioned off.
I wonder how many apartment complex loans are in trouble.
I live in SW Ohio as well (Live in Warren county, work in Hamilton county, born& raised in Butler Co.).
Where is this appartment complex located?
For the first time in 10 years my rent went is going down 10$ from the currnet rent. I have in the same apartment for three years. It went up 100$, and 50$ in the last two times. I was surprised when I got the new leas last week
I thought is was an 800lb gorrila?
Pigs get slaughtered…
4 legs bad, 2 legs good
aladinsane,
what? sorry, this animal metaphor went over my head.
You are halfway there with your “animal” reference…
animalosity…
(doublespeak)
A reference to Animal Farm
‘So not only has the industry stolen buyers from the future, they have stolen jobs from the future by over-building.’
Good point.
Yes, but only 5000 of them. Good thing no builders are laying off, with everyone having bills to pay and all…
Similar to Vegas, FL doesn’t have much of a real economy. As we all know, retirees are perhaps the biggest industry there. Wages are quite low for everyone else. You might as well build mansions on the moon because the way I see it, there is absolutely no support underlying home sales in a large chunk of FL unless values are actually going up. So crash and crash some more will be FL’s story for the foreseeable future.
The latest analyses of the Florida legislature’s lame attempt at property tax reform will not help. “Portability” of Save Our Homes property tax assessments/amounts implies that bubble-level prices are OK so long as we can take the tax amount with us. Nope. The prices are the problem, not the result.
Florida is f**ked. Our main industries were tourism and selling houses to northerners moving down. Retirees added something to the economy, but only in certain areas.
Anyone want a piece of paradise? Prices, they are a tumblin’
The underlying problem is, IMO, that prices are still artificially high and builders won’t stop over-supplying the market until those price fall significatly.
Prices are very much artificially high in both the new construction and existing homes and are not in-line with local incomes. Add on the high insurance costs and high taxes and you now have the perfect storm for a crash of the local realestate market. The consumer in the Tampa Bay market is tapped out and it is clearly showing the signs in our local malls and stores. I think next year will be much worse than this year in the Tampa Bay area and it is clearly showing in the numbers.
Fuzzy Bear would contact me offline about your thoughts on Tampa.
jhbush at mac dot com
Anyone have anything on the situation in Jupiter, particularly Abacoa or Loxahatchee Club?
every other house is a for sale or for rent sign, alot of speculation from miami/fort lauderdale flippers. market is down at least 20% but sellers haven’t dropped prices yet.
’sellers haven’t dropped prices yet.’
Not really a surprise when just about everyone in the industry is telling them prices are going to rebound any minute. All the while homebuilders continue to build/sell/slash prices.
Some sellers I know are clinging to the hope that the expected new property tax law will suddenly release the pent up demand. Wish in one hand…
‘The slumping real estate market doesn’t mean people who work in Destin can now afford to live here, Community Development Director Jerry Mucci says.’
‘Over the next three to five years, Mucci told the Destin Community Land Trust board this week, housing prices will rise again because of ‘the desirability of this kind of coastal area, the extremely limited amount of available land, the influx of baby boomer retirees … housing in Destin will become increasingly unaffordable.’
“‘the desirability of this kind of coastal area, the extremely limited amount of available land, the influx of baby boomer retirees”
How many times have we heard this line?
Those people in Destin have nothing but Kool-Aid to drink IMO. No joke but Realtor meetings start off with a prayer for higher prices. I saw/heard this myself last summer when I went to an auction in Pensacola that was administered by a Destin REIC member.
The quality of life and desirability in Destin has also been ruined with overbuilding. There is one main arterty (I-98) that runs along the coast and everything is built immediately to the left and right of the interstate for about ten miles. Everyone unloads from their condo and or gated community and hits I-98 at the same time every time which makes traffic unbearable.
I’m a boomer. Why do these people think I want to leave New York for Florida, Las Vegas, Arizona? All of my friends and family are here. Even though I’m priced out of buying in New York I can still rent in the outer boroughs. Most of my friends feel the way I do – so those of you who are waiting for the boomers to inflate your property value have a long wait. You might have been able to lure us in the past with low cost housing but it’s not a bargain anymore.
One hurricane later things could be mighty different.
’sellers haven’t dropped prices yet.’
I saw a psychological study a while back that found most people will not admit they lost money on an investment. They ride stocks down to zero.
It’s the same as everybody coming back from Vegas “winning” or “breaking even”,nobody ever loses, yet they keep building billion dollar hotels. Only when the forclosure notice is hung on their door, the sellers reality sinks in.
Is there a term for that?
Like “seller denial”, or “investor denial”.
y’know, real-estate never goes down in value. And did you know that they are not making any more land?
have an oceanfront unit in a 400 unit complex. 40 units for sale $625K to $725K ask. one unit, an estate sale, dropped price to $495K. not one bid, talk about the “plateau of denial”.
Boulderbo — I saw the same thing — a unit sold for $625K 18 months ago; better unit failed to sell this summer, even at $425K. That’s a healthy drop, but who knows at what price the second unit would have sold? I find it frustrating that so many people continue to quote wishing prices as if they are closed-and-sold prices.
Just anecdotal evidence on the situation in south FL, my old house sold for $235k in 2000
Last time I was in Boca Raton, I saw my old place for sale $800k. No kidding.
To this day, I check the listings in the neighborhood, and people are still asking 600-700k for their houses.
Problem is, this is a middle class neighborhood; it’s not a 700k neighborhood. I think south FL in particular has a way to go.
Jackie
i live in boca and everyone here is in denial. they think the suburban life and so-call good school is enough to have people buy crappy homes on zero lots. east of i-95 is clearly toast for investors who brought after 2002. the insurance companies are not touching the coast. and developments out west are mostly high class projects stack on each other with lakes that taking back the land these mcmansions where built on. if they dont drop prices soon, there will be alot of blood by the end of 2008. there is no buyers left with money on the table. everyone in boca used their homes like atm’s. it is always about appearance. so you will be calling boca, toasty!
If you are looking to buy ask again in about 3 years.
We have been tracking Jupiter and Jupiter Farms for 3 years, we sold in 2004 at the peak, but are looking to move back in a few years. Jupiter has a huge and growing inventory, but prices are very sticky. It will take a while, but prices will eventually crash there. In Jupiter Farms, there were no houses priced under $300,000 at the peak. That number was 5 a year ago, 15 six months ago, and is 30 today. Nothing is selling. Those prices are still 40% too high.
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Yeah, I tried to give them 100k but they wouldn’t open the account since we recently moved and they couldn’t run a ‘credit check’. Funny how they run credit checks for deposits but not for loans.
Sartre — that happened to me recently at a credit union. I thought it was just because they’re small. I said twice, “But I want to DEPOSIT $100K, not borrow it.” Didn’t matter.
Soneone will know, but I bet it’s related to banking rules under Homeland Security.
A two year supply of homes in Polk County…There is going to be some pain before this is over!
..
Winter Haven here.
MLS shows ~ 1200 homes for sale in my zip 33881. Population in my zip is ~ 35,000. Thats one home for every 29 people…..people that live here already. People that already rent or own. Not looking good.
Out on Thompson Road off CR540 they went and built out several developments on pastureland. There are hundreds of empty homes with “For Sale / For Rent / Help Me God / I Need To Get Rid Of This Ball And Chain / Whatever It Takes” type signs on the lawns.
Lots of blood will also be spilt around south Winter Haven at Terranova, another cow pasture that they decided to build hundreds of spec houses on.
Me : Happily Renting !!! I am gonna wait this one out. My Vulture Fund is geared towards “Rich Man’s Toy” purchases in 2008. After the Christmas spending binge and when taxes come due it should get really interesting down here.
Nice weather coming up this weekend in Florida. This is why I love it here.
You know, I’m confused about this. If people stop buying, doesn’t “two years” turn into… three? four? what gives?
Comment by Graspier
2007-11-02 07:45:38
And they layoff numbers are even worse for the Housing industry then what the announced numbers says since so much of the housing industry is sub-contractors.
______________________________________________________________
And please don’t forget about all the illegal day labor that has really become the backbone of the construction industry over the past 10-15 years, and were never counted in any of the official “stats” about the boom.
So now we have the realtors and lenders at odds with each other. It used to be they were partnered-up to make the deal happen; Now the realtor wants the FB to short sell so he can get a commission and the lender wants the FB to hang on so he can bleed him forever.
Strange bedfellows.
I work in both Polk and the Orlando MSA and I can tell you they are full of it. The real numbers are much much higher. IMHO we have about 10 years of inventory based upon the sales numbers I see. One must keep in mind the fact that this is a starting point and all through time other sellers crop up due to deaths, move outs, job losses and so on. Is inmigration going to change this? I doubt it. The pain here is palpable as you can see it at any restaurant in town or bar or mall. It is filtering upstream to the big houses even now. I checked MLS sales in Seminole and Orange County about October 21 and found 733 sales. I again checked on October 30 and found 645 sales. Go figure! We lost about 100 pendings and my guess is it was due to financing.
Talking to REAL bankers over the past few weeks leads me to believe the commercial sector is about to hit a wall as well. Vacancy rates are climbing out big time. No wonder as about 30% of our commercial property is tied to real estate involved users.
A friend with Home Depot told me they closed 2 more truss plants this past 2 weeks and there are only 4 remaining in the state. That ain’t much. Wonder what happened to that pending sale of HD’s contractor unit?
..
Good post.
I have a Realtor buddy that’s sweating bullets nowadays. He’s divorcing his high maintenance, 15yr -younger Trophy Wife and selling the Harley. Bike Nights down here were a big deal over the last several years and provided the Realtors(tm) and other associated RE industry asshats a chance to show their bling and do the “stylishly slummin’” Harley leather, dress-down, good ole boy type of thing. Alot of my friends have bikes.
Bike Nights have begun to lose their luster down here. I went to one near Cypress Gardens in perfect weather a couple of weeks ago and it was nearly dead. Waitress said the numbers have fallen drastically since last spring; with each week getting worse.
Just antcedotal evidence, but very telling nonetheless.
..
I have found anecdotal evidence to be the most persuasive and compelling information, and a lot more likely to be true than any of the crap presented in the media.
You said it, heck - that’s all the MSM spews out anyway - only they get it from shameless self-promoters like AG and that tanned buffalo hide masquerading as a philanthropist - so the sheep think its gospel. Our neighbors know more about what we face than those elitists.
LP- A buddy of mine is a manager at a Harley dealership here and he told me that the housing crisis has finally hit the motorcycle world. He is afraid for his job. Oh yeah and he bought a great big Mcmansion in 2005
Bike Nights have begun to lose their luster down here
Can’t go to bike nights if you had to sell your bike to buy food.
Where has all the truss gone?
That’s a good question, Aladinsane. After all, nobody can truss what their realtor says anymore.
NR
aladinsane: Where has all the truss gone?
good one!
“‘That’s not the advice the Realtors are giving because they are selling a house and the lender is the screwdriver and the Realtor is the hammer,
This is a fine example of the greedy commision only realtor who’s only interest is to line their own pockets at the expense of the ill informed consumer. Total lack of ethics!
The lender is the screwdriver and the realtor is the hammer. So the FB ends up getting nailed AND screwed.
Well with all the News about the rest of Florida, still rarely see anything here. Nothing in the News , ever. I have never seen a local Paper so afraid of Pi*s*ng Off the Locals Builders or God forbid , scaring off all those Baby Boomers still coming here to save the Day.
So from here on the ground , if anyone’s interested. When I questioned some people in the Construction and Realtor Field about the 1200 empty houses in my Neighborhood that have been empty and 4 Sale or Rent. I was assured.
We , in Marion County are Immune from the Housing Crunch , We are the Number one Place in the World where , Everyone wants to Live. Better Buy Now . Prices are going to start going back up soon.
What a Bunch of Maroons.
“‘That’s not the advice the Realtors are giving because they are selling a house and the lender is the screwdriver and the Realtor is the hammer,’ Allen said. ‘If the only tool I have in my toolbox is a hammer, every problem will be a nail.’”
If I had a bell
I’d ring it in the morning
I’d ring it in the evening
All over this land
I’d ring out danger
I’d ring out a warning
All over this land…
Except we’re not returning to the 60s, we’re returning to the 30s. Any depression-era “hammer” songs?
Little did you know it was a late 40’s protest song about McCarthyism, which I dare say, compares well, to what is happening at present…
“[The right-wing magazine] ‘Counterattack’ and the FBI succeeded in blacklisting the Weavers, but If I Had A Hammer was unconquerable. The song had a specific radical message in 1952; when Seeger suggested the Weavers perform it on bookings, one of them answered, “Oh no. We can’t get away with anything like that.”
http://www.mysongbook.de/msb/songs/i/ifihhamm.html
Thanks for the correction! For some reason, I had it associated with PP&M (who I saw in Hong Kong a couple of years ago) and forgot about its earlier history. (Maybe I wanted to blot it out, now that Seeger supports terrorism.)
If I had a realtor, I’d screw her in the morning. I’d screw her in the evening, all over this land…
Personally, I find your comment in poor taste. This is a forum about the housing bubble. Realtors of both sexes certainly blew it up with toxic fumes. Proposing a sexual vendetta for rapacity is alarming to me. I am a female employed as an analyst who goes out with men on occasion.
Well with all the News about the rest of Florida, still rarely see anything here. Nothing in the News , ever. I have never seen a local Paper so afraid of Pi*s*ng Off the Locals Builders or God forbid , scaring off all those Baby Boomers still coming here to save the Day.
So from here on the ground , if anyone’s interested. When I questioned some people in the Construction and Realtor Field about the 1200 empty houses in my Neighborhood that have been empty and 4 Sale or Rent for 2 years, I was assured…………..
We , in Marion County are Immune from the Housing Crunch , We are the Number one Place in the World where , Everyone wants to Live. Better Buy Now . Prices are going to start going back up soon.
Oh Yes , Don’t believe what You See in the MLS or Paper. I was assured by a Realtor that I must be mistaken. The Price Drops I see are some Mystery, because She assured Me , Prices are Not falling.
She has all the Information that the Public doesn’t and She can guarantee prices are not falling here.
What a Bunch of Maroons.
She has all the Information that the Public doesn’t and She can guarantee prices are not falling here.
Call her bluff and have her put it in writing in the sales contract and watch her response when she tries to explain that it does not need to be in the contract.
Hey, marion, everyone knows Orlando is immune from the Housing Crunch , We are the Number one Place in the World where , Everyone wants to Live. Better Buy Now . Prices are going to start going back up soon…..or is that Vegas…no, wait Miami…..hmmm, no that would be Los Angeles……is it New York?
I remember! It’s whatever city the Realtor you happen to be talking to is from.
The Orlando Sentinel. “Home builders continued cutting back in the Orlando area this summer, as new-home starts plunged 47 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago.”
An Orlando colleague of mine “bought” several properties to flip in 2005. He was 100% convinced that this would be the best way to finance his kid’s college education.
These kids will be lucky to be able to afford Community College now.
The kids will probably be doing Community Service.
If you bought here in 2004, your most likely f**ked. 2005 & 2006, definitly. I’m not saying that I didn’t “steal a few properties in 06 and a couple this year. I didn’t see any deals in 04 or 05, pretty much like the rest of Florida.
A friend runs a title company. At their peak they had 32 employees, going like gangbusters. She is now working 4 days aweek and they have 5 employees, total. She says she doesn’t have enough work for the 5 and the company is not breaking even. She thinks the owners are shutting it down.
Ya think?
The Florida threads and financial threads are always the same…
There are ever more houses/condos for sale in Fla., while there are fewer Dollars in the coffers of the Goliaths, one thread seemed to add up to $13 Billion, in losses. ouch
Sorry if this is a repost:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071102/nef041.html?.v=27
Legg Mason Value Trust Releases Letter to Shareholders
BALTIMORE, Md., Nov. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — On the 20th anniversary of the Crash of ‘87, the US stock market took a drubbing, falling 2.56%. In a curious parallel, the woes that are besetting the market are the result of a crash in the credit markets every bit as severe as that which hit equities back then, but which threatens to have more impact on the US and the global economy.
Dollar hits a new low. Good job Bernanke, you ignorant f*ck. Now all the money I so carefully saved is now becoming worthless. Ben must have bought a ton of gold before he became fed chairman.
Don’t blame this all on Bernake. Greenspan is the one responsible.
“Slow job growth, coupled with the effects of a troubled real estate market, is pushing down demand for new homes in the Tampa Bay area, according to a report.”
The above quote should read more like this:
“Slow job growth, coupled with the effects of a troubled real estate market, Inflated home prices that are beyond the means of local incomes, wages not keeping pace with inflation, High insurance costs, High taxes is pushing down demand for new and existing homes in the Tampa Bay area, according to a report. However, we do have lots of sunshine that you can enjoy when you are homeless!”
What slow job growth? Don’t you know about the 166k new jobs last month? You really gotta watch the news, man…
What happened was that 166,000 unemployed people either exhausted their benefits or left Florida and they are saying unemployment dropped.
More acuratly, 166,000 people stoppped receiving benefits for a variety of reasons. They now live under the overpass. But they got a good deal on the refridgerator box.
166K New Jobs? Yea, at the villages they just put in a New Steak and Shake. About 40 Jobs.
That should make up for the 5,000 People that just lost their Construction Jobs!
I failed to mention that the builders are still turning them out here in Central Florida. No doubt it has slowed but I still see crews working in the subdivisions. Build till it falls completely I guess. Oh yeah, they make their money doing draws too! ASSHATS!!!!!!
Better SELL those Sand Castles of Wealth FAST before the Tide comes IN and the whole damned sandbar is completely underwater kiddies
Yup - remember all those who thought it was just the threat of hurricanes that was keeping property from selling?
“‘There’s still demand for new homes,’ Narkiewicz said.”
I think I know that guy who wants to buy a new house. I guess one guy is a demand.
“The number of foreclosures filed in Lee County spiked to an all-time record of 1,538 in October — led by a big increase in primary homes.”
I don’t think that word (”spiked”) means what you think it means.
“Spiked” means that something went up fast, then went down fast, thus forming the shape of a spike when graphed. As in - what happened to the stock market after Wednesday’s rate cut. However you don’t know if something “spikes” until after you see the aftermath. In this case - I would say there’s about a 0% chance of foreclosures rapidly declining starting next month.
The proper word used in these contexts is “jumped”, not “spiked”.
I think they were refering to the EKG’s of all the Reators that spiked when they hit them with the De-frib after they realized the spike was just the lower slope of “Foreclosure Mountain”.
Hey, theres an idea for a new Disney ride, “Foreclosure Mountain”!!! Basically you create a roller coaster whose track follows the housing market for the last several years.
They could have real scary stuff like a mortgage broker who jumps out at you holding a pen and shoving an application for a no doc ARM with a 1% teaser rate that adjust up 10% per year….woooooo. Heck, they don’t even have to build an animated figure they could just hire one of the many out of work mort people to play the part.
The only flaw is that if they actaully build the track to follow the graph of how fast sales and prices are dropping, the G’s would kill you.
I think I rode that Ride at Bush Gardens. Like 300 feet Straight DOWN! The G’S gave Me a headache. This Year they took the floor out of it. Think it’s name is Shiekra.
They could just rename it. RE SHREEEK !
Since I am leaving the OC (after 10 years) and moving to Destin/Ft. Walton Beach Area, I was wondering if anyone on this board lives in that area and can give me the scoop on housing there. We never seem to read much on this blog about the panhandle. All the bad news seems to come out of Cental and South FL. Thanks!
My folks were there 6 months ago they said it was worst than South Florida. Everything was for sale.
I know several Realtors. The RE market is a train wreck in the panhandle. It would be no surprise if it was worse than S. Florida.
An acquiantance bought 2 houses to flip in Panama City, which is just east of Destin, and it’s the same old FB story, he can’t sell or rent them. Tons of RE there.
Destin is one of the most beautiful spots in Florida. That whole stretch of beach from P. City to Pensacola is one long suger sand beach. Great place to live. I don’t know about taxes and such, but RE is in the same spot as the rest of the US and most of the world.
Still, to early to buy anywhere, in my estimation. But I bet you can rent a nice house or condo on the beach for next to nothing.
All the new high-end condominiums in south Jacksonville Beach are completed, they all sit nearly empty, and construction has (finally) virtually stopped. It is a hopeless mess. As someone noted above, wishing prices and realistic prices are so far apart that if the banks/developers (and, yes, this includes people like Citi and B of A who have a presence here) lower their prices to the market-clearing price, heads would roll. So until this stuff starts getting filled up, you know the true marks-to-market haven’t been taken.
Back-of-the-envelope shows that there could be a 5 trillion loss in home equity in the U.S. Another $10 or $20 billion in writedowns on bad mortgages ain’t cuttin’ it - in fact, my guess is the negative equity in homes-under-water (some, literally, in coastal Florida now, like the Outer Banks) is growing faster than writedowns are being taken. Every new day sees the problem growing faster, collectively, than the speed with which it is being dealt.
Shut up Paul. You are just not being patriotic. And didn’t you hear the latest jobs numbers? All of those new employees will snap those condos up in no time. Stop being so darn pessimistic. and Go USA!!! we are the best! and never settle for less than granite.
I’m gonna build me a Flintstones house - granite all the way, including a rock for a door and a pelican for a garbage can.
I agree, it’s way worse than most people realize.
I’ve been telling my friends since 03/04 about the bubble. I went from being scoffed at to the smartest guy in the room. Now, I’m telling them that it is way worse than I could have imagined 2 or 3 years ago. I’m getting some sober looks. Very few smiles in the RE market these days.
I actrually had a guy who used to mock my bubble talk, start talking like he knew it was coming all along. No one let him get away with that one. Now he says we have to be at the bottom.
Will they ever learn…”Where have all the Realtors gone, long time passing….gone to s**t everyone…when will they ever learn, when will they eeeever learn?”
Someone set the musical tone with the “hammer” song.
FL
fair to say ?
sfh off 30%
townhouse /hoa off 40%
condo apartment style off 50%
Sales, yes — at least. Prices, getting there fast enough. IMO.
“Housing permits … in October, with Cape Coral recording 15 … less than 8 percent of October 2006’s 203, according to a report.”
That is the most dramatic percentage drop I recall reading on this blog. Not even just a drop — it’s a collapse.
Home-growning marijuana is really on the rise as FBs try to supplement income to pay mortgages. My question to the blog is if anyone knows of a Pot Grower/Dealer ETF in which we can invest to fully hedge against a housing depression?
I think the cultivation of Green Gold will become quite pervasive, as the eCONomy falls apart.
It’s the same old story with weed. When eveyone starts to grow it, it drops in value, supply and demand.
It’s a pot Bubble!!
I never see comments on Sanibel/Captiva. Does anyone know how the market is there? Also, I heard Key West is tanking. Any opinions on the Keys? Thanks.
Those markets are red-hot! Just ask the NAR. There really coudn’t be a better time to buy…
I cannot imagine what it will be like here in Florida once the denial phase past….recognition…..suicides….truly I am concerned about the societal implications once hope and the BS are in the shi*er….what is the last phase?????
I think its time to look at what happened in the depression. There were suicides, crime peaked, alcohol and drug use.
Same stuff, different century.
As a BK lawyer in FLA I can say that we are busier than ever - sales are increasing exponentially…..
Someone please post the “new paradigm” - “permanently high plateau” quote - I need a fix…..
“South Florida,” it has been said, “is entering a permanently high paradigm where the constant flow of illegal aliens and crooked South Americans will keep real estate prices at a plateau indefinitely,” said that guy from Stuart, Florida who owns 72 homes.
“There is more than a three-year supply of homes on the market in both Naples and Fort Myers.”
hahahaha! Suckers fools!
Erin Kerr said he doesn’t regret buying his Camden Place condo but does wish he had waited a little longer. They paid $577,000. Last week, the developer offered a similar unit for $464,000. ‘We love the community, we love our home, but part of me wishes we waited maybe a few more months. Maybe we would have gotten a better deal,’ said Kerr.”
You are going to lose a lot more dope.
“There is more than a three-year supply of homes on the market in both Naples and Fort Myers.”
lots of supply. wow. panic time
“‘Can it get worse?’ asked Gordon Kettle. ‘In all the years I’ve been tracking data, I’ve never seen it worse.’”
No kidden sherlock. This is the biggest corrupt bubble in history. The crash is in progress.